The Ringer NFL Show - NFL Week 13 Picks, Props, and Predictions! | Extra Point Taken
Episode Date: December 1, 2023The Week 13 action kicked off with an entertaining 'Thursday Night Football' comeback victory for the Dallas Cowboys over the Seattle Seahawks. Sheil and Ben discuss what the game meant for both teams... and whether the Cowboys are for real. Plus, an NFC championship game rematch preview between the 49ers and Eagles, picks of the week, and nonsense predictions! The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please check out theringer.com/RG to find out more, or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Sheil Kapadia and Ben Solak Producer: Cliff Augustin Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Musical Elements: Devon Renaldo Social: Eduardo Ocampo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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Welcome to Extra Boy, Taking Shield Kapati here, joined by Ben Solak to talk about week 13 in the NFL,
storylines, locks, props, predictions, our contest.
And of course, Benjamin, we got a great Thursday night game.
We'll lead the show off with Cowboys.
Hang on to take down the Seattle.
See all.
How are we feeling today?
that wasn't a punt
not a punt to be seen
man we had missed field goals
and turn numbers on downs
and interception
and touchdowns and field goals
we did not have a punt
10 out of 10 Thursday night
football great work
I doubted
it took me to like halfway through the third
quarter to realize
for sure the game was good
and also happening on Thursday night
I had the ringer NFL slackles
go you guys seeing this
this is a great good game on Thursday night
I think that
it's a frustrating loss for the Seahawks,
because my number one takeaway is like,
yeah,
the,
kind of the doom and gloom around this team
has been over exaggerated.
They still can absolutely punch it,
like, playoff caliber weight,
not like NFC contender way,
but they absolutely can punch it
playoff caliber weight.
They had control of that game
for most of that game,
and they're leading for most of the game,
they had the opportunity to go up two scores
in the third quarter,
and then they just can't get the hay in the bar, right?
they can't park the boat.
And that's,
I don't think
that's reflective of anything.
People always want there to be like a result
like,
oh,
like,
because Gino's not clutch.
Like,
I don't think that happened.
Like,
like Pete's terrible like the defense isn't good enough.
I don't even argue that.
Like most teams that are running into DAC these days are,
are dealing with that sort of performance.
I don't even think it was a major takeaway for me as to like why they lost.
You just wish they would have wanted to say it would have asserted the take a little
bit more.
But for me,
like my number one takeaway coming out of that is that Seattle's still up there.
Like Seattle is still like a,
tough out on any given week on the road against NFC contenders.
Like they're going to be around.
Do they have the same number of losses as the Packers and the Vikings
and now they have to really fight for the wildcard spot?
Yes.
But I view the Seahawks as a tier above those teams.
Yeah, I was trying to think about how I would feel
if I were a Seahawks fan after that game.
And I do think you're right.
There's definitely an aspect of it that's like, whoa,
this offensive performance against that Cowboys defense.
Like, all right, you know, now things are looking up for us.
I mean, that was the Seahawks best offensive.
Offensive performance of this season based on EPA per drive.
It was a top 10 performance by any team this season offensively for the Seahawks.
You look at that.
You say, wow, Gino looked good.
The ball was coming out.
You know, even when he was getting pressured, he was doing a good job climbing the pocket.
D.K. Metcalfe was making place.
Jackson Smith and Jigma is coming on strong.
Lockett had the one drop, but you kind of feel good about them offensively.
I'm not with you.
I cannot just say defensively, oh, it's the Cowboys.
Like there is truth to that for sure.
But this defense, if you're the Seahawks, I mean, he traded for Leonard Williams.
You signed Raymont Jones in the offseason.
You used a top pick on Devon Weatherspoon, who's awesome.
And you're 26th in EPA per drive.
Like, you know, we always talk about, are you doing more with less?
That defense is not doing, it's doing, it feels like it's doing less with more.
You know what I mean?
It feels like if there are different situations where that defense would be playing better.
And that's not me saying, you know, Pete Carroll can't coach or Clinton hurt, the defensive coordinator.
Maybe they'll get it together.
But I think if you're a Seahawks fan, you say, man, our expectations for this defense with the personnel with Jamal Adams.
I didn't know, like they've used a lot of resources on this defense and to show up in that spot and not show any resistance.
I mean, the Cowboys had 33 first downs.
That's the most by any team all season long there.
Seahawks playing was Ben, but don't break.
Stop him in the red zone.
And you were kind of doing that a little bit.
but they just offered no resistance.
So I would be a little frustrated by the defense,
and I would be a little frustrated by the outcome.
I mean, it's easy for you and I to come out and say,
oh, you know, they look good.
They're six and six,
and they've got the Niners and the Eagles the next two weeks.
Like, that was a game you had a chance to steal for sure,
and you didn't do it, and it could end up costing you.
So, yeah, I'm kind of like on both sides there for the Seahawks.
And then the Cowboys, I mean, you got to be feeling great.
Jack Prescott has probably never looked better.
You know, he's been a good quarterback for a long time.
Right now, he is really buttoned up, polished.
They look unstoppable right now.
I mean, Jake Ferguson is.
I always wonder, do they have enough beyond C.D. Lamb?
I mean, Jake Ferguson was showing up in a big spot last night.
So, yeah, right now, So, like, and like this will surprise people because you and I were not on the mic.
Their first in EPA per drive, they overtook the Niners with that offensive performance.
their offense.
So they didn't have a signature win on their schedule.
And I thought that was a pretty big win for that.
Well,
this was why,
like,
do you remember after that Cardinals lost,
I came at the Cowboys take of like,
it's all good news because either it's a very easy fix
or Mike McCarthy's getting fired because it's not a very easy fix.
This is the first reality for me where it was like,
all right,
like this isn't hard.
Like,
move CD around and get better in the red zone.
Like this,
like they,
like,
you would very clearly see the bones of a very good offense.
And they just weren't, again, like landing the play.
And the same way we were talking about the Seahawks.
They just weren't scoring in the Red Zone.
Like they had terrible performance against the Cardinals.
They had a couple of bad Red Zone performances.
They had like blowouts and okay, like maybe this is going to be an issue for McCarthy long term.
It was just, okay, get better there.
Like put your attention there.
You're going to use Dak more with his legs running the football.
Ferguson waking up and improving as a player has been a big deal for that.
But then the other thing has just been, okay, we got to know where bread is buttered.
Like I like Michael, I like Michael Gallup.
I've always liked Michael Gallup.
He is not the same player.
He was off the injury.
And his snaps have just been going down and down.
down and down and down get jalen tolbert activated
Cvante Turpin has been big for them in the red zone
they're activating Brandon Cooks a little bit more
and then obviously they're willing to run the entire plane
out of CD Lane when they can.
That, like the Cowboys
offense, I always had this in their chamber
for me. I did have my doubts that McArthur
would get there, but I'm very glad they have.
You cannot overstate how well DAC is playing.
Like right there you said like,
he's always been a good player. He's, you know,
he's buttoned up, he's polished up. This is like, you know,
the high caliber play. He's like, as, like,
it looks different than when Mahombe
is that his most dangerous or Alan's that is that as most dangerous because he's not running around
like breaking tackles and like making trick shots the way those guys do.
But Prescott right now is as dangerous, as difficult to deal with, as intimidating as those
guys are when they are at their peak respect, right?
It looks different.
But there's, you just don't, you don't solve.
It's a step too far for me.
I would say settle down a little bit with that.
You don't, you don't, you don't like defensively, you don't solve this.
There's no like, oh, well, we do this and that and then this.
and then the other thing.
Dak just sits back there and is right every single time.
And he's not just right five yards down the field.
He's right 15 yards down the field.
There's nothing to do.
And I will say,
what you want to do is bully the receivers.
And when you get flags like this, you can't.
And so, like, I give the Seahawks defense a little bit of grace in that regard
because, like, it's a tough night to be a defense back out there,
just from a procedural and what is a legal perspective.
So what you want to do is you want to just bully the receivers
and make Dak go tight window for his entire life.
But he's just been doing this for, like,
over a month.
now where he just doesn't miss every that like the the triple coverage CD Lamb bender that was
that was in the end zone he checked yeah he forced into the most ridiculous coverage everyone
knew that route was covering and was on it hit CD Lamb in both hands the window is the size
of the football dude like I I think that the what debt would I think it's true I think what
DAC is doing right now is as as as intimidating not like as impressive as intimidating as scary to
deal with defensively as when you get like Mahomes where he's running around and
everybody wants or Alan like he played against the Eagles.
Like there's just there's just nothing you can do against us
to sit there and take it and hope you outscore it.
I would put it just a tier below.
I think those guys, their A plus game when they are playing adds another element,
but I don't want to downplay how Dak Prescott's playing.
He's been terrific.
Their offensive line, you know, I know they gave up some sacks last night,
but man, there were just snaps where they were dominating.
And I think we talked about it when they played the Eagles,
a few weeks ago, that was my biggest takeaway from the film. I was like, holy cow,
their offensive line is handling this Eagles pass rush for 57 minutes. And so they've got all
the pieces right now. There's no doubt about it. Their defense didn't play well. I'm willing to say,
maybe that's just a one-off game. Let's see, you know, we have a bigger sample size of their defense
being a top five unit in the NFL. And then even if you go back to last year, we have an even bigger
sample size. So they got, you know, picked apart quite a bit by Gino Smith and that Seahawks offense.
Even good defenses generally have those types of weeks.
So if it happens again, if it's two or three weeks in a row, I'm ready to have that discussion, but not right now.
So big one next week, Cowboys host the Eagles, which brings us, I think, well, we're headliners, unless you got something else.
So like, I would imagine your headliner.
Dolphins commanders.
There's a lot riding on this one for me.
A headliner, Eagles Niners, I have not talked to you at all about this game this week.
I'm curious to hear your thoughts.
So what do you think? What stands out? Yeah, matchups all over the place that are exciting, right?
Debo Samuel told James Bradbury, he's not all that. And now we got to every time they like-
He called him trash. I mean, it's so mean. James Bradbury is such a nice guy if anyone's ever met him. Very soft-spoken, well-mannered, just, you know,
consummate professional. And Tebow's out here just calling him trash. Geez. Yeah, so we got to,
we got to now every time they line up opposite each other, we got to have a conversation about that.
Huge matchup there. We have the young men, Ben Van Sun.
linebacker, potentially making his first career start?
You have to explain to people who this person is because I barely know who he is and I,
you know, I am a co-host of the ringers Philly special.
So why are you talking about Ben Van Sumerin 10 minutes into extra point taken?
Ben Van Sumerin is the rare, all right, Michigan to Michigan State transfer.
Wow, Trader.
He was a linebacker who started, I think he started up Michigan and then he transferred to
to win to Michigan State, whatever.
undrafted free agent for the Eagles in 2022 or no,
2023 this year he's a rookie.
And the Eagles had at linebacker,
Nacobo, D, Nicholas Morrow, Zach Cunningham,
all above him on the depth chart.
Dean's out and Cunningham's out.
And because the Eagles haven't gotten Darius Leonard
in the building and got him onboarded in like four
days, which I would imagine they were kind of hoping
maybe they could do.
They're going to start Ben Van Van Zumrin,
undrafted free agent rookie linebacker.
His first career start. He's got like 20, 30
snaps on defense so far this year.
Well, is that true?
What about Christian Ellis?
They got Christian Ellis.
Oh, yeah, yeah.
Yeah, they're going to get elsewhere.
Yeah, so Sumrin might, I mean, the big question, I think the, you know, the point is a good one because the, I mean, the 49ers run 21 and 22 personnel more than any other team in the NFL.
And so, like, they want to get your linebackers on the field and then they want to expose your linebackers.
Eagles linebackers were not very good to begin with.
And now they're down to starters.
And so now you're playing two backup, some combination of those names you mentioned out there.
And yeah, I do think that is like, you know, one of the biggest storylines in this game.
It's just like, how in the world are the Eagles going to defend the middle of the field with this lineback and core against that Niners offense?
Yeah.
So allow me to edit.
I said it was a 2023 on draft the pre-agent.
The Eagles have a 2021 undrafted pre-agent.
Who's bounced around the league named Christian Ellis.
He's been a couple plays.
He's largely been a special teamer.
He has 75 snaps this season.
He's going to be the starting linebacker.
The little better.
They are very thin at linebacker going against the team.
this,
Niners offense.
Like you said,
that's a terrible place to be
against such a play action
every team that works
in the middle of the field.
So you have that matchup.
The matchup to me
that's going to define this game
is the Eagles number one ranked
rushing offense by success rate
against the 49ers 30th ranked
rushing defense by success rate.
When the Niners were under Robert Sala
and then under Domeka Ryan,
and they were just like,
we're going to be a two-high team,
we're going to play quarters,
we're going to play,
you know,
with like lighter personnel
with these like,
smaller linebackers, excuse me,
and we're just to be light in the box all the time.
Structurally, they were doing a lot of Seattle stuff.
They were changing the coverage a little bit,
but they were like four down front,
and they were just going to lose to the run.
Like, by structure, they decided we're not going to be a good run defense.
Not much we can do about that.
We're going to let this defense line be super aggressive
and get up field,
so we're going to lose to the run.
And so it was interesting to see.
I was curious to see this season.
When Steve Wilkes comes in,
he's obviously from a little bit different of a tree,
is he going to make changes?
They're going to be a little bit more versatile in the front,
and they're not going to be as pass rush prioritized on first and 10.
They're going to make the guys play a little slower.
And they got Javonne Hargrave, who like,
Hargrave was a great penetration player with the Eagles and high pass rush value.
He wasn't a great run defender.
But in a previous life, you've been a really good run defender with the Steelers
and early with the Eagles when he was asked to play a little slower.
Like maybe Hargrave's going to be that for them.
Like, how's this going to work?
And then it turns out they're just doing the same stuff, man.
We put four down and we asked those four down to win those four gaps.
And then we're going to solve the problem behind you.
And so they are liable to lose in the running game.
Now, there are penetration front.
So they can get wins.
They can get stops.
And Fred Warner run through and first and 10 becomes a one-yard loss, second 11.
That's a nice win.
But snap to snap, this team loses to the running game.
When the Eagles played the Niners in the NFC championship game,
a lot of people remember that game as being a huge blowout.
Halfway through the second quarter, seven to seven, right?
The Niners defense will stop in the Eagles pretty successfully early in that game.
They got a good enough drive with Josh Johnson to tie it up with,
Christian McCaffrey, like, oh, maybe they're going to make something of this.
And the Eagles really started to find success offensively once they moved to a more run-the-ball-oriented
approach, a little bit more methodical drive-wise.
Eagles average 0.15 EPA per rush.
In that game, 0.09 EPA per pass, right?
And that's called run versus call pass.
That's removing the scrambles.
This team was better against the Niners when they ran the ball.
Most offenses are, right?
Kirk Cousins, Vikings, heroics, notwithstanding, the success against this team this year has
been running the football.
Most important thing for the Niners in this game
is when the Eagles line up first and 10
and they just stick the ball on the Andre's best belly,
you got to win the down.
You have to make the Eagles get off the field on short drives.
You cannot let them eat the clock on you.
You cannot let them march down the field on you.
They have shown so many times
this year and Brian Johnson,
even last year to Shane Stike in,
they are very willing to do that.
All right, 15 play 75-yard touchdown drive
with two fourth-down conversions.
Remember, the Eagles don't play on first and 10.
They play on first and eight and a half.
Because if they get to fourth and one and a half, they're sneaking that sucker and it's going in.
And so you have to be able defensively to find solutions and wins to the way the Eagles run the football.
They're going to be in guns, it's going to be RPO's.
They're going to try to outnumber you.
You have to win with the front.
You have to be able to dominate against that Eagles off the line.
Very, very, very tough ask, but that's the matchup that decides this game.
Yeah, I think from a game script perspective, that makes sense for the Eagles, too.
I mean, they want to shrink this game.
They know their defense is not going to shut down the Niners.
This is not a, hey, force them to go three and out.
you know, three or four times in this game. I just don't think that's going to happen.
It's sort of a high leverage game for the Eagles defense where they have to say,
hey, Brock Purdy will give us, what, two to four chances in this game to take the ball away.
He's 25th out of 29 quarterbacks and turnover worthy play rate.
It's like the only statistic where Brock Purdy is not top three in the NFL.
I mean, I looked at every split this week. Man, zone, single high, too high, blitz, no blitz.
He's top three in terms of efficiency, EPA per pass play, in all of those statistics.
The only thing is he is aggressive.
We've talked about this many times on this show.
He's different from Jimmy J.
And that he's willing to push the ball downfield.
He's willing to take some chances.
He's willing to try to create a little bit whether Kyle Shanahan likes that or not.
It probably depends on the result.
I was laughing the other week when he had the touchdown and what Shanahan called it,
the worst decision he's made as a 40-9 starter.
So we'll see what you.
You know, you got to make those plays.
If you're the Eagles defense, you've got to, the pass rush has to win up front.
I think that's the other area where they have a chance.
The left side of the Eagles pass rush, Hassan Redick, Jalen Carter against the right side of that 49ers offensive line.
But man, this 49ers offense is tough.
And it's hard for me, you know, I really don't know what the solution is to protecting the middle of the field against that 49ers offense.
So from a game script perspective, I think if you can shrink the game, limit the number of possessions, run the
ball that's going to work in your favor if you are the Philadelphia Eagles. So this game has so much
juice. I mean, both fan bases are fired up about this game. There's going to be narratives after
this game about who's the king of the NFC. So really excited for this matchup. That is the
headliner for week 13 in the NFL. All right, before we move on, it's time for a special part
of today's episode presented by State Farm. There's a lot of things that are good together.
You know who looked good together last week, Ben Solac, Patrick Mahomes and Rashi Rice.
Yes, sir.
Which brings me to my Monday morning storyline, the next part of the show.
What will we be talking about Monday morning?
I think, Ben, we're going to be talking about, are we sure Patrick Mahomes isn't the MVP of 2023 on Monday morning?
So here's how it looks right now.
Mahomes right now is plus 470.
Hello, the greatest quarterback we've seen in our lifetime.
I'll say that.
Brady more accomplished.
If I'm just saying greatest, I will say Patrick Moms, in his prime is plus 470 in a season
where there's no obvious MVP.
Jalen Hertz is plus 190, the favorite.
Dak Prescott, after his Thursday night performance moves up to second place at plus
380.
All right.
So why am I saying this about Mahomes this week specifically?
Eagles are two and a half point underdogs against the Niners.
I'm sure we'll, you know, maybe we'll get to that game a little bit more.
I've got to hear your pick at some point during the show.
But there's an obvious chance that the Eagles lose that football game.
You and I have talked about this is a very predictable award.
Quarterback of one or two seed wins MVP.
Is that really nothing else you need to know?
That's what happens.
And so the Chiefs, if they win this game at Green Bay against the Packers, they're going to be tied for the best record in the AFC.
They're going to have a great shot to earn that one seed.
I looked at that game last week, Chiefs Raiders, and I thought, okay, for the first time all year,
it feels like the Chiefs are figuring some things out. It was their best performance all season
in terms of offensive success rate. When Mahomes went to Rashi Rice, eight for 10 for 107 yards
and a touchdown. Some of that was out of structure, but you know what? If you can give Mahomes
another option, he trusts out of structure in addition to Travis Kelsey, that's a big deal
for that Chief's offense. So, you know, I think we're,
there's going to be this narrative.
And I think it's going to be fair that if you put a league average quarterback into that
chief's offense, what does it look like?
And is Mahomes kind of dragging this team, lifting this team to this performance to potentially
the first seat in the AFC?
Because after this game, Ben, they get the bills.
That's a tough one.
Then they go at New England, Raiders, Bengals, and Chargers.
I mean, we're looking at a 13 or a 14 win team here.
And by the way, the Ravens have the second hardest schedule in the NFL,
remaining. So chiefs have a really good shot to earn that one seat. I think there's going to be some,
hey, I think Patrick Mahomes was sitting here all along. Let's not screw it up like we did with Carl Malone
and Michael Jordan back in the day in the NBA. Let's just give it. If there's no other clear-cut
favorite, let's just give it to the guy who we think is the best player who's lifting his team
to a top five offense. What do you think about that Monday morning storyline? I love that Monday morning
storyline because I feel like every year in the MVP race, we have a most.
moment around this time, like week 13, week 14.
100%.
Yeah, where we all go, are we sure we shouldn't just give it to the actual best player?
Who's the most valuable?
Are we positive?
Last year, the same thing happened, 100% this time of year.
Yeah, we all, like, wisen up, like, just for a week.
Well, what if we gave it to the most valuable player?
And then after that, there's like some like 400-yard three touchdown performance.
And Brock Purdy, we're like, no, it's got to be Brock.
What can we do?
It's because of stats, right?
Stephen, our co-worker Stephen Ruiz had a great tweet during the game last night where
after the Cowboys took the lead 3835, he tweeted, it's a shame that Dak Prescott could never
touch the ball for the rest of this game. The Cowboys could lose this game and that would somehow
impact Dak's MVP case, right? Because if the Seahawks had won that game over the Cowboys,
it would have probably, to some degree, heard Daq's MVP case a little bit. And it's like, yeah,
like that's how we calculate MVP. We do wins and losses, which doesn't make sense.
So it's a great take because I 100% believe that Mahomes has the,
is going to have that effect, that moment at some point in the upcoming weeks.
You got to get more Rishi Rice and your duo, though.
This young man can play.
This is, I have liked what I've seen from Rishi incrementally across the season.
I was not.
Give me the background on, yeah, give me the background on Rish,
because you are more of a draft guy than I am.
I only really knew of him when he got to the NFL, like,
What was his skill set like?
What did he show you last week?
That was impressive.
Yeah, so Rishi was a really good contested catch.
Go get the ball in the air, make something happen player at SMU.
Now, he measured in 6-1, like 205, I want to say, which usually when you're a contested catch guy,
we want you to be a little bigger, a little bit stronger.
He has long arms for his size, though.
And typically guys go to congestic catch.
It's a really long arm length thing.
And so, okay, he's not the biggest dude.
And he wasn't the best athlete.
like, all right, he's going to try to be a contested catch guy in the league.
And he's not T. Higgins size.
Like, for me, like, I was struggling with that.
There were folks, like, I know Derek Claston, who does work for reception for the 33 NFL team.
I know Nate Tice, who's at the athletic.
Like, there were guys who were big Rishi fans because they thought he'd be able to run the ball
well after the catch.
Like, he's a good physical specimen.
He doesn't go down easily.
He's a smart player with it.
And then he'd catch everything.
And so you could use him more reliably as like a possession receiver.
I wasn't fully there.
That's what you're getting for him.
They're using him as a possession receiver.
right where she is not a a downfield explosives guy like he certainly can get that for you but that's not
how they're using him to turn him on screens man i turn him on screens and curls like they're using
him on a lot of the routes they used juju on last year but it's souped up to a 12 right so he can like
actually break tackles at this point in his career and like juju who kind of didn't have that as
much anymore and that's what the chief's obviously has really been lacking right they don't need
another like oh if you can catch it it's a 45 yard game guy they just need like uh dude we can get 12 yards
on third and seven, thank God guy.
And that's what Rashid has become to them.
Which is hard for a rookie to be early
because the quarterback doesn't fully know him just yet
and they're not totally dialed in.
You're seeing that week over week over week.
And critically when Rice has plays
like the touchdown he had against the Raiders,
where Mahomes gives him a regular throw on a regular route
that should just get first to 10.
And Rice pays him off with a touchdown.
That's enormous.
Because think about the amount of touchdowns Mahomes is thrown
where the guy has not paid him off, right?
Where a receiver has underwhelmed for him.
Rishie is right now in Mahom's mind, like the guy who does something when I throw it and he catches the ball.
That's going to warn him more targets.
So I wanted to make sure I gave a moment to Rice who is emerging to be the player.
I hoped he would over the course of this season.
I think he's going to get better and better week over week.
Mahomes and Rishie Rice, a dynamic duo to watch this weekend.
We'll talk more about that Chiefs Packers game coming up.
But you know what else is better together?
Benjamin.
Home and Auto Insurance.
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by state. All right, let's take a quick break. We'll come back. We'll hear from Ben.
on his Monday morning storyline.
All right, we are back on extra point taken.
So, like, what are we talking about?
Monday morning after a week.
I love saying week 13.
Like, we're getting there.
These games matter, baby.
Yeah, all right, what do you got?
I'm glad.
I'm definitely at the stage where I can't remember what week it is.
I really, I'm still positive.
It's week 10.
I've been positive to week 10 for like a month.
Monday morning headline.
We're talking about the resurgence of Joe Flacco.
No, I'm kidding.
Oh, my gosh.
I thought for a second,
I was like, well, what is happening?
here. I thought I could get you to spit take on the coffee there real quick. I thought I could get you.
No, I do. I have to take my lumps here a little bit because you came to the Monday pod this week with, hey, Rams are making the playoffs. And I was like, I like the Rams. I like the Rams. I don't know. Rams might be, I think money more headlines. Rams might be actually making the playoffs.
This is going to become a little bit more of a mainstream idea. The Rams right now are five and six and they get those Joe Flacco Browns at home in the late window. And I'll be honest, I think this team is quite,
well equipped to beat the Browns.
When they have Kyrin Williams, I brought the fact that the Eagles are first in rushing
success rate.
The Rams is just a team this season or second rushing success rate?
Wow.
A Sean McVeigh team?
What?
That says 2017.
Like the Todd Gurley outside zone heyday.
Has a Sean McVeigh team been running the football this well, this consistently?
And Kairn Williams, they're back who exploded last week against the carnals over 170 all-purpose
yards.
He's been the most reliable back they have in the backfield.
They're rushing EPA.
been 10 ranks higher, 10 points higher, when Piran is off the field versus when he's off the field.
This is a high impact back who matters.
He is better than the alternatives.
He is an important player to them.
When you have a good running game against the Browns, you're able to punish the way the Browns play very simple fronts and kind of our one gap and go, pass-oriented team.
This Rams pass protection is probably going to struggle quite a bit against the Browns if they're in clear past situations.
And so you have to be able to run the ball to survive and stay ahead of the sticks there.
but critically, you don't expect to be put into any negative game scripts because the other team is playing
Joe Flacco.
Joe Flacco is all the Brown signed Joe Flacko like two weeks ago and Dorian Thompson Robinson looking like he can't go this week.
And they have PJ Walker, but they're not going to be a play PJ Walker.
They're going to start Flacco.
You have a fourth starting quarterback for the Browns here as they, is this like trying to make the place?
What's happening?
Why?
What logic Joe Flacco for me?
Because I'm still perturbed that this is occurring.
All right.
So I have been a Joe Flacco hater for many years.
Ah, let's go.
Even when he was with the Ravens.
But I can give the defense if I'm like, you know, Kevin Sophansky giving you an off
the record, you know, bet you're covering the Browns.
And I want to just, you know, this with coach, just for contact, you know, just from
background.
And then they try to get you to write exactly what they say.
Oh, yeah, I know how you were coaches and GMs.
I would say, we know we got to win with defense.
We know we have to take care of the football.
And guess what?
We're going to incorporate the Joe Flacco offense where have you, did you watch Thursday night football?
Have you watched the game, the way games are officiated this year?
We're just going to have Joe Flacko use that beautiful arm and just chuck that ball 40, 50 yards,
let's say five to six times a game.
And guess what?
On at least two of those, we're going to spend time with the receivers this week.
Hey, you're coming back to the ball.
Make sure you fall down.
Let me see you're selling.
If you don't sell it, you're running laps here.
And so we're going to get a couple defensive pass interference penalties.
that's going to put us in field goal range.
We think we need like, you know, 16 points to win this game.
16.
What's the, though, is this the one with the low over under?
Or is that another game?
I forget.
I think it's under 40 for sure.
This one is a 34 point game.
Yeah, this one is 39 and a half.
39.
Because it's the 20, 23 NFL season, there are multiple games that are lower.
Bengals, Jags is 38 and a half.
Falcon's Jets is 37 and a half.
Or no, wait, Falcon Jets is 33 and a half.
And then Panthers bucks is 36 and a half.
I am on two overs in those four games if we're sharing personal secrets that we're ashamed of.
So there you go.
That's the Joe Flacco.
That's the defense of Joe Flacco.
He's just going to chuck it downfield.
We're going to get some DPIs.
Maybe we catch one of them.
One of them leads to a touchdown.
One of them leads to a field goal.
All of a sudden, we're closer to winning the football game.
Yeah.
I hate that.
This Brown's team, I don't.
They are such a poor position to be successful.
offensively. Like, I prefer
DTRs at least he gave you scrambled drill stuff.
Like, I know it felt like he, you know,
couldn't like hit your receivers or whatever.
Blacko was not going to be good enough,
consistently enough, especially like when the pocket starts
to get a little bit hot and remember this team is still
dealing with offensive line injuries.
To be like, a Marty Cooper,
Maximize Amari and Elijah Moore. Like,
maybe if you had like Jamar Chase
and T. Higgins, I'd get like, all right, we need to do anything
we can to get like a game manager in here.
It's like, it's good. It's not like, chill out.
Like, I don't know.
I don't see this.
This doesn't make sense of it.
It's not going to be a good passing game regardless.
Exactly.
A creator might put you in a better spot.
Yeah.
And so if the Rams win this game, then all right, you've got yourself at 6 and 6.
and New York Times would put them at a 57% chance to make the playoffs.
Now, if we're only looking at games that Kyron William has played in, they're going to be 5 and 3.
If we're only looking at games that Matthew Stafford has played, they're going to be 6 and 5.
Like, this is a team that when the offense is healthy, they've been punching above their weight.
They've been punching above 500.
And so we talked about a lot in this show.
the defense, not a great unit, but a very young unit that absolutely you can see getting better
over time. And so to me, yeah, I think a Rams win against the Browns is something that's likely.
I'll be talking about that more later than the show. And I like them to get a little bit of
that playoff buzz that you saw the Packers get in this week and you saw the Colts getting this
week and some of those other teams that get into the fringe of the playoff picture.
I think it's the Rams turn after a win against the Browns this Sunday.
I always lean towards which offense do I trust, which offense can score.
and if Stafford's healthy with
Kairn Williams and Puka Nakua and Koo,
it's all of a sudden you're like,
there are players I like a lot on this offense
with a good offensive coach. Can they protect?
I mean, I think there's still going to be ugly weeks
where Stafford's taking sacks and forced into some mistakes for sure.
But yeah, that's why on Monday I was trying to look ahead a little bit
and say Rams and Packers are two teams, I think, to keep an eye on here.
All right, it's time to get to the contest,
the extra point taking contest.
And while Solek brings up the spreadsheet,
you'll notice here, I'm trying to change my juju.
Now, you didn't comment, so like I was surprised.
For the first time all year, I'm wearing an actual shirt.
I always wear shirt.
I shouldn't say, I don't do these shows shirtless.
I don't do these shows nude.
But I'm putting on a regular, you know, button down collar.
You see, the dome has been shaved, nicely moisturized.
I'm trying to change the juju.
I am so embarrassed by my picks against the spread performance on this contest.
I need to do something.
And I will continue to do something.
If I don't go two and one or better this week, who knows what you're going to see me in next week on this show.
So go ahead.
You had a monster week.
So whatever you did last week, you should be doing that again.
Well, a little inside baseball here.
I was a few minutes late to the pod this morning.
I rolled out of bed like maybe 15 minutes before we started this thing.
And I got on the pot and Shields got no hat on a colored shirt.
And I was like, shoot, Shield's got something with his kids after the pod.
And I made him late.
I'm the worst.
I'm so sorry.
Because Shield's wearing, I'm going outside clothes.
And it turns out no, she'll just wearing, I'm trying to make good picks clothes.
So actually, this is good news for me.
Yes, that's good news.
It has nothing to do with what I'm doing after the show.
We finally had a sweep last week.
The seven-pointer, the touchdown was scored.
Yeah, I had a perfect week last week, we're very excited about.
I had the Chiefs against the spread, Falcons against spread, steos against the spread.
I'll give you a little golf clap for that.
Rams alternate line.
That's impressive.
Yeah.
And under rushing yards for Stakewell and Berkeley.
funny thing is what wasn't even my best predictions of the of the show i said if the
steelers go over 400 yards we should get a cave with 400 candles they did that my nonsense
prediction was that it was going to be a a black monday for someone frank wright was fired
monday morning nice job you wow nine for nine i was running real hot last friday i'm very
worried about the uh the cool down coming but yeah it was nice i like i said when we were when we were
at our lowest there. I said, okay, the most important thing is someone has got to get at least one
sweep. I'm still at my lowest, by the way, but yeah. Yeah, sorry about that. Someone's got to get
one sweep. So I'm glad we got a sweep. We got a seven pointer in. It feels good. I now have 37 points
to your 35 points. You had your long shot hit again. Incredible on the long shot shield.
Over 300 passing yards for C.J. Stroud, which for those you playing at home, C.J. Stroud was
trying to put together a game winning drive, got 304 yards and then the drive, stop. All right.
He got just over the bar.
A push on Bills plus three against Eagles.
Tough loss on that one.
I mean, I was feeling good at halftime on that bad boy.
Jalen Warren over 49 and a half rushing yards.
He ends with 49.
By the way, in a good week.
He got a carry.
They're trying to put the game away.
Stop for no gain.
Come on, Jalen, fall forward.
I'm 49 and 49.5.
Incredible.
And then Vikings minus three against the Bears,
which the Bears didn't score a touchdown is still covered.
It sucks.
Chargers plus three against the Ravens.
Could have gotten a push there.
Didn't get that one.
Go to you, Chargers.
A week from hell from Sheal.
So yeah, now in the season,
Shield hitting the long shots
in an unbelievable rate,
Sheel is, where I lost it now.
Shield, long shots of the week,
15 points, 5 correct on 12 opportunities,
42% in his long shots,
39% on the locks against the spread.
Worse on locks than long shots.
What is happening?
Better taking big swing.
Yeah, so we're trying to as a group be over 56% this year against the spread.
I'm at 56% Shields at 39.
So we're doing our best over here.
But he's wearing a collared shirt.
So he'll be back.
Like I said, 3735 is the score right now.
Listen, I'm wearing a collard shirt.
I had Seahawks plus nine and a half last night.
I was sweating it out.
I said, Dag, if you get this ball in the end zone, I may have to throw something at the TV here.
I lost almost every prop.
I put in last night's game.
It was a tough game for me.
I was taking live unders missing those.
I had Seahawks plus nine and a half.
And I was like, at least I have that.
And then the Cowboys got that ball in the red zone.
I was like, there's no way.
I had goose egg done this.
That was a scary one.
I had already, like, in my head, marked it down as a win.
And then all of a sudden, I'm like, wait, they're up by three and they have the football.
Right.
And Cidooleam just had an end around for like 35 yards and they're in the red zone.
What is happening here.
But Seahawks, thank you.
You didn't win, but you covered.
All right.
I'm feeling good.
I spent a lot of time this week.
I feel good about my picks.
collar shirt, bald head moisturized.
I'm just going to see.
You know what?
I'm changing the juju.
I'm starting us off with my prop.
Yes.
You know what I liked?
What experience I enjoyed last week?
Solac was watching CJ Stroud and saying,
if he throws for more yards, I win something here.
And so I'm not doing that as my long shot.
I'm doing that as my prop this week.
I'm not going to push it.
261.5 passing yards for CJ Stroud.
I'm taking the over.
He has thrown for 300 plus.
four straight games.
This is a passing team right now.
They're putting the football in his hands.
What I loved about last week,
earlier in the season,
what was great about T.J. Stroud?
In rhythm.
Operating, pushing the ball downfield,
going through his reads.
Well, last week, that wasn't available to him.
He had to go in creation mode.
Now, he took some sacks.
There's no doubt about it.
They lost the game.
But also, he was making some big boy plays,
just buying time,
holding the football,
and making plays downfield.
So I think regardless of what's happening,
he's able to move the ball through the air.
This team is third in passing DVOA.
Like, CJ Stroud has gone from, oh, this is a fun, like a fun rookie we're watching.
Good, no, no, no, they have a top three passing offense in the NFL in terms of efficiency.
So I look at that Broncos defense.
I still think they're doing it with the little smoke and mirrors, with all the takeaways.
They've had a league high, 16 takeaways during this five-game winning streak.
They're 21st and defensive success rate during the winning streak.
So they're still like down to down.
There's still a below average defense.
Even if you take away the Miami.
I'm not talking about the Miami game.
I'm talking about during this winning streak.
So I think Stroud's going to be able to make plays in the passing game.
I'm not too worried about the game script.
CJ Stroud over 261 and a half passing yard.
There you go.
Right.
Gotta go back to the well.
And you go back to the well, it feels good.
I might just have him on something the rest of the season.
That's fun.
To sit there and be like, I want him to pass for more yards.
That is a good experience.
Yes, nobody watches CJ's.
round Rootraub not to do what he's doing except the guys who were playing him. And so you feel
you have the collective with you. Yeah, I like it. All right. What do you got?
Prop of the week for me, pinch her nose, but Bailey Zappi's starting a quarterback for the New England
Patriots this week. They're gone up against Los Angeles Chargers. Chargers, an extremely bad
defense against pass catching backs this season, zone heavy defense. Romandre Stevenson, a good
pass catching back who if you go and you look last year, or excuse me, over the last two seasons,
Andre Stevenson, pretty heavy target when Bailey Zappi was a starting quarterback.
Zappi's willing to get rid of the ball quickly.
He's willing to throw the ball underneath versus zone.
We look at targets per route run.
Ramondre Stevenson was getting a look on about 25% of his routes run when he was playing
with Bailey Zapping.
So it's a high volume for a back there.
He's at 20 and a half receiving guards.
I like the over for this one.
The Patriots like, oh, like game scraped, oh, they're going to try to be more aggressive.
I don't think they're going to try to do anything.
I think they're going to get out there and play for four quarters and see what Zappi does.
I don't think there's going to be any like, oh, we got to get Tyquon Thorin activated.
Like, they have no juice.
They have no like, oh, I think maybe you're going to see some like forced DiMardo Douglas,
but there's no line for him right now.
Other than that, I think it's just going to be zappy, like, see what you can do with this
offense.
And against the Chargers defense where it's a lot of zone, a lot of sync, a lot of let the
back be free underneath.
I think you're going to see Romandre.
I get that volume in the passing game.
Romandre has been a decently high passing game player as of late, right?
He's had six, six, four, six, five, five target.
in the last six weeks.
And it's a two-headed backfield
with Zika Elliott.
But obviously,
Zika's a little bit more of the run threat.
Romandria's a little bit more
than past catching threat.
So with Zappi,
with the way Romandre is used
against the Chargers defense,
I like Romandre to go over 20 and a half
receiving yards.
Running back receiving over has been great to me
this season personally.
I was going to say,
I feel like you are,
you,
that's a high,
you're a high percentage backs
receiving yards,
prop guy.
Yeah.
So it's one of the things
that I model pretty successfully.
I,
on this pod,
when I take it,
it misses. I've been very bad taking it on the show.
Personally, I'm doing great with him.
So I'm back to my own personal well.
Hopefully this one actually comes through.
There you go. All right. Remandre, listen, I got Remandre in a big,
a couple big fantasy matchup. So let's get Ramandre the football. We need this one.
My, my biggest fantasy matchup is Dak. I'm feeling great.
I had, yeah. The earliest I started paying attention to fantasy football is like this week.
And I was like, let's go, Dak, baby. We're doing it.
There you go. All right. My long shot of the week.
We talked about this a little bit earlier.
49ers Eagles, middle of the field.
I've got George Kittle, 60 plus receiving yards.
Now, that was 148.
I said, shoot, I got to get to 150 for this.
So you know what?
It's pretty easy to get to 150 from 148.
I'm adding on.
This is your influence, by the way.
Jaguars plus 14.5.
Okay.
As long as the Jaguars don't lose to the Bengals,
by 15 points or more, that gets me to plus 150 here.
So it's really a George Kittle bet, 60 plus receiving yards.
Eagles are 32nd in DVOA against tight ends.
We mentioned it earlier.
They're down there two starting linebackers.
What the Eagles have been doing in recent weeks since they traded for Kevin Byrd,
the Titan safety, they've been using him as their tight end matchup.
It's been hit or miss against the Chiefs.
They were using Fired and somebody else in high leverage situations.
Well, you can't do that against the 49.
I mean, you're not going to be doubling George Kittle.
And Christian McCaffrey, Debo, Samuel, Brandon, Nauch.
They have too many other guys who can beat you.
So I think there's going to be one-on-one opportunities when the Eagles play man with Bired on
Kittle that Kittle can win.
I also think it's just going to be a heavy zone game for the Eagles and that George Kittle
is going to have opportunities.
They're going to try to get the ball out of Brock Purdy's hands and not let that Eagles pass rush
get home.
So I like George Kittle to be kind of the guy for that 49ers offense in this matchup.
60 plus receiving yards for George Kittle,
Jaguars plus 14 and a half on Monday night.
The funniest outcome would be if George Kittle has like 80 receiving yards
and then the Jaguars lose by 15 on Monday night and I lose the bet.
I will gladly laugh at that loss.
But as long as the Jaguars don't lose by more than 14,
that gets me to plus 150 for my long shot of the week.
Yeah, Kittle's a great one for a long shot because Kettle's season has been extremely boom or bust.
like one catch for 12 yards or seven catches for 103, right?
That's kind of been the model for him.
They've used him a lot on shot plays, right?
This is the only shot play tight end in the league for so.
Like, I don't know how he ended up here,
but he's like a block, block, you know, release on the vertical.
It's like a play action merchant in that regard.
I like that a lot against the Eagles.
I agree.
Tight end numbers against Eagles have been something I've looked at over the course of this year.
They struggle against tight ends.
Eagles also over the last eight.
weeks, by the way, established the run,
which is a wonderful fantasy that I recommend
everybody, has a defense versus position
adjuster where it's basically like fantasy points-wise,
what do you expect? Worst defense of the last
eight weeks against wide receivers, been the Eagles
as well. They obviously have they have good
corners, but they just, they promote these
game scripts and then they
don't have a lot outside of
Darius Lay and the risk taker of James
Bradbury. There's a way that
like you brought up Mahomes as MVP. I was
thinking for my
nonsense prediction being like,
Brock's going to beat the Eagles and we're going to go back to Brock MVP world.
You remember like week six where I was like,
how can Brock not be the MVP?
We're about to be right back there if he beats the Eagles.
I think it's going to be a big passing performance overall for the Niners.
I like pretty much every Niners passing over under the sun.
Are you picking Eagles Niners in our locks of the week or no?
I am not.
Oh, okay.
Well, then I just, I need your prediction.
What do you think?
Do you have a score?
Do you have a side if you had to that you like or there's that if you had to
pick one, how you say this, this game would result.
I've successfully avoided.
I don't know how to speak.
I just forgot how to speak there.
How this game would result?
What is happening?
All right.
That's how.
Listen, you are dialed in on your picks.
You're not taking your eye off the ball.
And I appreciate that.
I have successfully avoided giving a take on who's going to win this game because I think
it's the Niners.
And I don't want that to be out loud as an Eagles fan and then receive the guff for
it.
So obviously you're going to corner me and make me do it.
That's what you do well.
Of course.
That's what I do.
I think the Niners' defense is a very scary matchup against the Eagles.
I absolutely do.
I can see a world where the Eagles run this thing just success in four quarters to control the script.
But they haven't done that the last few weeks.
It has been a little bit since we've seen that.
I think the Eagles defense into this Niners passing attack is abysmal.
I think it's really rough.
Like I said, like been very bad against receivers as of late,
giving up a lot of production, this fantasy perspective,
but it translates bad against the tight end position.
I have no idea how they stop Christian McAfee reception out of the backfield.
Like, I've got to, they have not faced a receiving back like this, this season.
And, like, they, I, uh, you're just going to sit in zone.
And then you're going to be asking Christian Ellis and Bradley, Bradley and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, plus the fact that the Eagles are coming off, this.
It's terrifying, like, I, I, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a ton of points in this one, which I know is, like, surprising for a lot of people, but I think defensively the matchups are pretty bad.
I do like, uh, that plus the fact that the Eagles are coming off this extremely emotional.
overtime win against the bills at home.
They were at home.
It was off of a short week.
They were in Kansas City on the road.
Monday football,
that was an emotional win.
This team is just a little bit primed, in my opinion,
for like, okay, eventually a letdown spot comes,
and this feels like the spot.
Now, I've said that like three times about these Eagles
in the last two calendar years,
and it never happens.
So who knows, maybe they just keep it rolling.
But to me, this is a pretty clear spot for the Niners.
Eagles first home dog at 10 and 1 in like decades or something.
Like the betting markets very much feel like they don't pass the SNFSA for this one.
So we'll see.
Yeah.
Yeah, I like the bills a lot as I picked on the show to cover last week against the Eagles.
And I'm just tired of like trying to predict when, you know, they're going to lose a game with you.
Obviously, it's going to happen.
I went with Eagles 24, 49ers, 23 in this game post game like the Eagles have been playing.
Maybe they get the ball with like 140 left, kick a field goal, and win the game.
But there are a lot of schematic advantages for the 49ers.
Also, you mentioned overtime.
Eagles defense played 92 snaps last game.
Like that's in the 49ers are coming off extra rest.
So yeah, that is a big thing for sure.
And they pay, I want to say 70 against the Chiefs.
And they're also thin along the defensive line.
They had like Carter took the most snaps he's taken all season.
Letcher Cox is out.
Yeah, Cox is out.
Dorden Davis took a lot of snaps.
Like I would not be surprised if they are gas.
the time we get to end of this game. Okay. What do you got for your long shot of the week?
Yeah, brought it up there. Oh, we're talking to Eagles, Eagles Niners. I've,
I have Christian McCaffrey, uh, six plus receptions, which is plus 154, uh, for my long shot
of the week. Like I said, the Eagles, when you go and you look at what they've been, uh,
against backs in the receiving game, they've actually been pretty good by the numbers, right? They have a
pretty consistent formula where they're just going to ask their guys step up rally and tackle. And
they're generally like a good rally and tackle defense. They're well coached. I appreciate that.
But when you go and poke through the schedule and try to find where they faced those tops receiving backs,
they had week one against the Patriots.
Like, you had Ramondre in that game, Ramonjors is a solid back.
But then, like, Vikings, Buccaneers, they play the commanders twice, dolphins, jets,
Rams.
These are not teams that they're like, they face the Cowboys who they kind of throw to the back sometimes with Pollard,
but it's not been the big part of their game this year.
They face the Chiefs without McKinnon.
Like, they just haven't faced a team that has a legit receiving back yet, which is great.
like week 13, usually you face one,
they really just haven't had it like Pollard and Ramandir kind of the biggest test.
And that's not high volume players.
McCaffrey is a high volume guy.
And like I said,
you can see how this passing game is going to be very successful throw into receivers
and forcing targets downfield.
And so it's like, all right,
well,
they're going to have a great time thrown to the receivers and a great time thrown
into the tight ends.
How are they possibly going to get McCaffrey to six receptions?
I hear that.
I absolutely do.
Like I said,
I like every passing over and so you kind of have to pick your spots.
To me,
they're going to funnel targets to McCaffrey.
Like to me,
if you choose a place,
player to get activated in this game.
You choose Debo when he's lined up against James Bradbury, obviously.
That's number one.
But then number two is you go and you try to find McCaffrey activated because McAfrey's
going to struggle a little bit more in the running game, right?
Like this is going to be a spot where the Eagles are going to win with their front,
I think consistently enough in the trenches that McCaffer is just not going to have the day
running the football that you'd like for him to.
And you need your star player to be activated.
You need him to be able to carry this game for you.
McCaffrey's the threat that I think the Eagles have the least answers to.
So you're on George Kittle for your potential longstop receiving overs.
I'm on Christian McCaffrey from my long shot in receiving overs.
It's going to be a big day for Brandon and I.
You can Debo Samuel probably in San Francisco.
But I want some sort of distance exposure,
some sort of like big money exposure to this Niners passing game.
So I think that's going to have a ton of fun.
And the player that I want to be on in terms of the targets personally is McCaffrey.
So six plus receptions, 154.
I was going to say, I think last time this happened,
I had Christian Watson.
You had Aaron Jones and we both lost.
So yes, if you're smart out there, maybe put a little lettuce on
Iyuk and Debo Samuel.
All right, let's take one more break.
We'll come back with our nonsense predictions
and, of course, our locks of the week.
All right, we are back on.
Extra point taking my nontest prediction.
Listen, I'm sticking with Eagles 49ers.
It's a big game.
What do you want for me?
I think we get an ejection in Eagles 49ers.
Yes.
I haven't.
Every time we predict fights and like ejections,
we get close, not quite.
Give me an actual one.
Give me draw them up.
I think the bad blood is legit.
Obviously, the Niners very unhappy with the way that game played out last season in the NFC championship game.
Brock Purdy gets knocked out.
Josh Johnson comes in.
Josh Johnson gets knocked out.
Brock Purdy comes back in, but he can't throw the football.
And it just turns into a blowout for the Eagles.
So they've had this game circled on their calendar.
Eagles also a prideful group.
A lot of stake list.
If they lose this game, then all of a sudden you're going to Dallas next week.
And if you lose that game, you have the same record as the Cowboys in the NFC East.
And we're talking about tiebreakers in the last month of the season.
Remember, Eagles are Cowboys.
One of them have a chance to be the one or the two seed.
And the other one is going to be the five.
Like, it is a big drop off to get down there to the five seed versus potentially having a buy.
So listen, it could be something pregame.
I know you hit us with the pregame thing in one of the previous shows, which I love,
a little scuffle where all of a sudden, it's like, whoa, look at this.
The game hasn't even started yet.
and they're not letting Jake Elliott practice these fields of something.
It could be something pregame.
It could be something in-game.
It could be something, you know, Nick Siriani-related.
I mean, that guy at this point in the season, I don't know how many hours he's slept.
He's yelling at Chiefs fans a couple weeks ago.
That storyline had like 31 fan bases.
Nick Siriani has just become the most annoying guy in the NFL,
and Eagles fans couldn't be loving it anymore that he's their coach right now.
So maybe he gets involved here.
I don't know.
But there's a lot of guys in this team.
team in this game who aren't going to back down.
Hassan Reddick is talking some noise this week.
Jalen Carter is looking for a fight with the way he plays A.J. Brown, you know, he's been a little
quiet the last two weeks.
If he's not getting the football, he's going to be taking his frustration out on someone.
Trent Williams went after an Eagles backup safety in that game last year.
Debo Samuel, we know he's fired up.
So these are a lot of alphas, you would say, on both of these teams.
I think there will be an injection.
I think it will be a big storyline.
I think one of the fan bases will feel like they got wrong,
whether it's again, pregame, in game, whatever.
But it'll be something we're talking about after this matchup.
So there you go.
Yeah.
So you say pregame.
I say post game, right?
I like this.
Whether it's, whether it's like, you know.
But you can't get ejected post game.
Well, suspended.
That's true.
I was thinking about just in terms of like the fights.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Which I, maybe it's like, right.
Like if the score is decided enough late that like, you know,
you get frustration fouls from somebody.
And then, you know, okay.
there's three minutes left in the fourth quarter.
We're tossing Darius Slay
because it doesn't matter
and the Niners are just stolen the game away or whatever.
But I feel like with this game in Philadelphia,
the Niners are losing.
The Eagles fans will inform them
and that will frustrate that that team, right?
We saw obviously Jordan Phillips of the Bills
have a tough day in Philadelphia,
which a lot of that was on Phillips.
But in general, losing in Philadelphia
is a place where the fan base
make sure you're aware of the fact that it's occurring.
and that I think will frustrate a guy.
Meanwhile, if the Niners end up winning,
I can, the way this Niners,
the Niners team acted after the NFC championship game loss,
I know they've had Eagles fans in their mentions for the last
10 months, 11 months,
just derailing them for complaining about the nature of the loss.
They're going to be letting the Eagles fan base know.
So I believe very strongly that the crowd will be fomenting an environment
that will lead itself to some late game antics
if we don't even get the pregame antics.
I desperately need, you know what I want so badly?
I want to, who's kicking?
Is Robbie Gold still kicking for the Niners?
He is, right?
No.
Oh, no, no, Moody, Moody, yeah, yeah, yeah.
I do.
I desperately need a Jake Moody's warming up from the 40
and Jalen Carter has not right to walk right through the warmup.
That's what, that's what I need a, I need a star player decides to disrupt place kicker
warm up as like the instigator.
That's always my favorite one.
That's what I need to start this one, yeah, yeah.
I like those as well.
All right, what do you got?
What's your nonsense prediction for the week?
The team that signs Zach Ertz will win the Super Bowl.
Ooh.
Whoa.
Wow.
Okay.
Exciting.
So, Zach Ertz, tight end for the Cardinals.
It was released this week with the hopes of signing the contender.
He's been banged up.
Obviously, I had a major season ending injury last year, and he's missed him time this year.
Trey McBride, who's a young tight end for the Cardinals, is kind of become a favorite
target of Kyler Murray, and they're using him a little bit more.
and want to prioritize youth.
And okay,
so Zach Rose is going to have a big job on this team.
Ertz is getting long in the tooth.
You'd like to participate on a Super Bowl contending team.
Obviously, one win with the Eagles.
Go birds.
So, okay, we're going to release Zach Hertz.
And if he gets through waivers,
he wants to sign of the contender.
That's the report.
Jordan Schultz, a bleacher report says,
hey, he might sign with the Raven.
Mark Andrew's injury.
Help out there.
I like that.
You don't need to take all of Isaiah likely snaps.
Take a good portion.
Sign with the Eagles.
For the vibes?
Incredible.
Earths and Goddard back on the field together again.
Love it.
It's extremely cool.
I would love to see him.
I'd be very happy.
Is Earth the same player he was?
No.
But even when Earths wasn't the same player he was,
he's still like a very good like leverage,
sit down, smart tight end sort of a guy.
Two other teams that I think also still make sense potentially for the,
for the Zachard signing.
One is the Kansas City Chiefs.
I don't think you can say no to any targets.
I don't think you say no to any pass catchers.
I think Ertz and Kelsey on the field together is a lot of old tight end,
but there's ways to make that work still.
It's a reliable possession receiver.
I don't think you say no to anybody
as a good set of hands.
And then brought up the Eagles connection.
There's also Doug Peterson connection.
And Jacksonville has been, yeah,
Jacksonville's got Evan Ingram,
who's a fun little, like, use him around
and move him around tight end.
But then besides that, they've been trying
to get Luke Farrell.
Like, Luke Farrell plays a lot of snaps to them,
and he's a blocker for them.
And then Brent and Strange, who's their third round peg,
they've been trying to get like more second tight end stuff working.
I don't think Farrell or Strange
or nearly hitting what they want to hit.
with their 12 personnel sets.
Doug usually is a really good out of 12.
They're not necessarily getting that
from their second tight end.
Wouldn't be surprised
if the Jaguars are interested as well.
So I'm just naming teams
that could already win the Super Bowl.
So might as well just say,
whoever Zachertz joins,
that's the team that's going to go
the distance, man.
Zacherts is the Golden Goose.
Get a Zacherts in your building.
Philanthropic guy,
lovely human,
championship caliber.
It is good juju for the Super Bowl run.
It's a lucky charm.
Get him in your locker room.
Zachert to win a Super Bowl, get them on your team.
Yeah, has played in big games.
Great teammate.
It's interesting, the familiarity with the offense aspect of that.
I hadn't thought of the Jaguars.
That is one that's pretty interesting to me.
Just work the middle of the field, third down, red zone.
You know these plays.
You know these calls.
You know how we teach it.
Just come right in and catch a couple of balls every week.
So we'll see.
It would require Trent bulky,
admitting that a player he acquired
is not necessarily good enough yet,
which is not an inherently
Trent bulky thing to do.
So I'm not holding my breath on the Jaguar.
There you go.
And of course, Eagles would be fun,
just him returning to the team
where he played most of his career.
All right,
let's get to the good stuff.
The locks of the week.
I figured you guys know the contest now.
I mean, I can't imagine you're just showing.
By the way, I meant to mention this.
So like appreciate everyone with the Spotify rap.
I don't know about you.
You know, I don't feel many things.
But that's a nice,
feeling. Like when you see, oh, wow, you guys have listened to a lot of the Ringer NFL show this
year. Holy cow, we've been in your AirPods or your car speakers or your Bluetooth's at home,
just yelling nonsense. That was the oldest way you could have possibly have done that.
Why? You're in your, in your Bluetooth? You don't let the JBL flip. You don't use a JBL flip,
like in the bathroom or anything? A little Bluetooth speaker. Okay. So, I don't know what's talking about.
I don't know what the JBL Flip is.
No, maybe that's old with me.
But in your Bluetooth,
Bluetooth is the technology
by which the connection is made.
It's like in your speakers.
I'm just saying,
that's a very my dad way to describe.
I'm trying to listen to it on the Bluetooth, Ben.
I can't get on the Bluetooth.
Listen, okay.
Cliff says,
LOL, come on, Ben.
So how about that?
Listen, Cliff is a young man
and he's taking my side,
the old guy's side.
I know, I know, I know.
I know what the JBL flips are.
I just know that.
I think that the beats pill.
Like, I don't even think about that as the name of it.
Settle down.
All right.
No free advert.
We're not giving free advertising.
Bleep all that out.
Okay, we love our advertisement.
I know.
I did it first.
All right.
Anyway,
what was I saying?
Oh,
thank you.
If you listen to the show,
if you set us your,
hey, Spotify,
that's a show to cut into a thank you message with like,
wait a minute.
Let's argue semantics on something for a minute.
No,
I agree.
As far as like the cheap dopamine that actually feels good,
But seeing the Spotify rap stuff is incredible.
It means a lot.
So I appreciate it.
If you have a screenshot like that, it meant a good deal.
Thank you.
I agree.
Thank you, everyone for listening.
Keep them coming.
All right.
Locks of the week.
Again, I'm going first.
I got to change the juju.
I have got the Houston Texans.
I'm riding this Texans team, baby.
Minus three and a half at home against the Denver Broncos.
You know what?
It's moved all the way.
Let me double check because it was plus 100,
which I didn't love when I last.
Let's get that baby down to minus three.
three, shall we shoot? Still minus three and a half. You know what? I'm still taking it. I don't care.
This Broncos formula is not sustainable. They can win in one way. It's a good story. It's a good
coaching job. Nice job by them. If you're a Broncos fan, you should be enjoying it. But they're
plus 13 on turnovers during this winning streak. If that doesn't happen for them, they're out of
lock. They don't have other ways to win football games. Russell Wilson has thrown for 200 yards
once in the last five games. 200. I didn't say 300. I said 200 yards once in the last
five games. They are playing a very
conservative, you know,
get some turnovers. Portland Sutton make a play.
Russell Wilson using his legs
last week. That's all well
and good. But this Texan's team
is legit. They can throw the football on anybody.
They throw for over 300 every
week. They're getting healthier in the secondary.
They're efficient. They're explosive.
They can make mistakes. They can
overcome those mistakes. They lost last week
to Jacksonville. They're
coming out here, you know,
in a bounceback spot.
to make the playoffs. I like the Texans here. And by the way, this game, keep an eye on all the
ringer socials. We're going to have an NFL same game parlay for this game. Benny Soles is
going to cook up something. What do you think so that Texans minus three and a half over the Broncos.
Yeah, I think CJ Stroud might be in there. Broncos fans are very furious with me. I know this.
My brother's a Broncos fan who's texting me. I wrote about them in the column. I talked about
them in the pod. And your defense is living off of taking the ball away. Your offense is living off
of not turning the ball over. Eventually, the nightman cometh, right? The hammer drops. It's just
very hard to live. Right now, they at Shield, they're generating about plus 60 turnover expected
points over the last five weeks. The season leaders in turnover's expected points added over the last
years have been at 70. The Dolvins have gotten in the past five, excuse me, not the dolphins,
the Broncos have gotten the last five weeks, about as much value out of turnovers as the best
team in the league does over the course of the season.
So it's not, it's just, that's very, very, very hard to keep doing.
I think this Broncos team is due for a little bit of a stinker, due for a little bit
to fall flat.
And then I think the Texans are an extremely tough out in any given week.
And they also know they have to win to stay tight in the AFC playoff race.
So yeah, I think this is a good, good to a Texas spot.
All right.
What do you got?
What's your first one?
I have two that I really like.
And then the third one I'm waffling.
We'll start with Rams minus three and a half.
Brought this up.
I'm loving the opportunity to fade Joe Flacco.
in his first start. The Rams are at home, only getting three and a half against the Browns.
I understand, like, okay, defense and then Flacco's not going to make the same mistakes.
A, I think there's a good chance Flacco makes a lot of mistakes.
B, I think this Rams offense is at a full power that is really quite impressive when they're there.
And we just didn't see it a lot this season intermittently.
Obviously, there's Cooper Cup health concerns and like kind of what percentage is he playing at.
But in general, I think they have a great ability to pass football with Stafford with the play
of gone out of Puka, with two-two kind of emerging a player he has.
and then with Kyra to run the ball. I think they're balanced on that side of the ball.
Offensively, I cannot imagine the Browns having enough of the playbook for Joe Flacco,
enough of the dynamic like playmaking ability of Joe Flacco to keep pace with the Rams
if the Rams get this thing on a positive game script. So I'm expecting the Rams,
get out early, get a couple points, run a trick player or two, make sure you generate that 10 point
lead and then put the Browns in a spot where they just can't play the game if they want to play.
You should be able to coast this thing pretty nicely. So Rams again in that playoff hunt,
like I said, minus three and a half is my first one.
Keep an eye on Miles Garrett in that game.
When I wrote my column Wednesday night,
I actually took the Browns plus three and a half.
Didn't feel great about it.
I thought Miles Garrett was definitely going to play in this game.
He has not practiced so far this week with that shoulder injury.
If he plays, what does he look like?
I just felt like, you know what?
This could be kind of an ugly low scoring game.
Maybe it's close.
But on paper, I pretty much agree with what you're saying there.
I do like that.
No, uh, quite a bet.
Yeah.
No Denzel Ward as well.
Thank you for reminding me on the Browns defense.
Botonios banged up.
Brown's just not healthy right now.
There you go.
All right.
My next one,
I'm going to Sunday night,
the Kansas City Chiefs minus six at the Green Bay Packers.
This was one that in the beginning of the week,
are Packers?
Our Packers?
Listen, I'm still in on the Packers.
You're going to lose this game, I think,
but you're still going to make the playoffs.
I think it's kind of gotten a little too far.
I just think Steve Spagnolo was such a hard defense.
coordinator to prepare for for a young, inexperienced team.
And as we talked about, even when the Packers were rolling, they were still having young
players making Mr. Christian Watson running the wrong route.
AJ Dylan going the wrong way on the handoff.
Like they're still making those mistakes and overcoming those.
I think that's a lot harder.
I guess the Chief's defense that's really good.
I guess the defensive coordinator who's really tricky to prepare for.
And as we talked about earlier, I think this Chief's offense may be figuring some
things out.
I've been hard on them all season long.
think they cannot win, win big with these wide receivers. Well, they might have one guy emerging.
They were very efficient last week. I don't trust this Packers defense. I think you like them more than I do.
Certainly some of the individual talent is there, but as a whole, I do not trust them in a big spot.
So I think this is a competitive game. I mean, it's minus six. It's not, you know, minus nine.
This could be a tie game at the fourth quarter. Chief score a touchdown. And I get the cover.
So I like Kansas City to go to Green Bay, to go to Green Bay, win that game by a touchdown.
we say, okay, pump the brakes a little bit on the Packers,
although I like the Packers.
Packers are going to make the playoffs.
They're just going to have a little bit of a hiccup here.
Yeah, that Packers defense, right?
Like, how much do you like it?
How much you not like it?
I like a Rashon Gary, and I don't like a Chief's tackle situation, right?
Like, that to me, like the particular match that the Packers bring defensively,
where it's the past rush, I think they're going to be able to get in the way they're
able to heat up Mahomes.
It's a big physical front.
They're going to be able to condense that pocket and make Mahomes play a little bit of a
of an uncomfortable game, a pressured game.
I think that's a huge deal.
The offense, right?
You say a young offense against Steve Spagnolo.
I remember a Jordan Love first career start COVID year.
Yeah, remember that game.
Now that Spack's defense wasn't as good as this one.
I'll give you that.
But I remember, like, there was Jordan Love in that game.
I had a few plays where I was like, hey, that was those.
Yeah, but they did nothing in that game.
They couldn't score.
It was like a 13.
What do you tell you was 13?
10, they scored on like the last possession.
They look terrible in that game.
Seven points, right?
Yeah, they had one drive.
He made a couple plays on one drive.
The rest of the game was...
Now, that was a hard spot.
He's coming in one game on the road.
That was a different player,
so I'm not drawing that comparison.
But yeah, if we get that version,
I'm feeling great about minus six, yeah.
I remember watching the game being like,
Dore Love's got a little something.
I like the film on that game.
Listen, that was COVID time.
Yeah, we can't remember.
I don't know what happened.
Not resultory.
Right, but loves seen the defense,
but Love's gotten a lot better.
I did love for the play sheet this week.
I like, he, he is improving, not just like, okay, he's improving.
That's good.
He's improving the ways you'd really like to see a young passer improve where it's not like,
oh, like I was trying like all these crazy throws.
And now that I'm a little bit older, like I know which ones I can and get, get away with.
He's very clearly trying to get his arms around the timing of the offense, the tempo
of the offense, the tempo of the offense, and succeeding, which is very sustainable.
So I like, I like, I like level a lot.
I like this Packers match up a lot.
I didn't pick this game.
If I would, I would be on Packers.
is plus six. To me, this is one of the ones this week where I like the dog. So, yeah, I was surprised.
I thought you and you and me were together all the way on the X-Point-taking team of the year,
but apparently you're not fully buying it just yet. Listen, I'll still put the cheese head on.
If they win, I'll take my lumps. I just like the chiefs in this spot. All right, what do you have
for your second game? Second one is lines minus four and a half on the road against the Saints.
Fayed of the Saints last week, loved it, go birds. It's fun to fade. It's very fun to fade the
Saints, I will say. I mean, that is not a team you want to be like, have something invested in this
version of the Saints. Yeah, it's ugly stuff. Now, when I faded the Saints last week, I said,
hey, like, you know, no more Sean Latimore, no Michael Thomas. Like, this team is just in a really
tough spot. Well, lo and behold, Rashidjee Jihad, probably out for this game, did not practice.
Chris Alave hoping to practice coming through concussion protocol. He was limited. The Alave thing is a little
bit of a question mark. But again, they're continuing to deal with injuries that the Saints are just the
absolute worst time of the season. Is there, uh, is there an injury update on missing show?
I was just looking at Cam Jordan also has not practiced Wednesday and Thursday with an ankle injury.
So now, yeah, we're talking about like their, you know, two, their two best defensive players
potentially out for this game. Yeah. And so you're at a spot where the Saints just continue to get
banged up, banged up, banged up, banged up, banged up. Lions. Embarrassing loss to the Packers at home
on, on Thanksgiving. Man, what happened? Like, where did that come from? Like a little bit of a sobering
loss, you expect this team coming off a long week up against a beatable Saints opponent.
This is a conference win, right?
So it's an important win for the Lions to come back and say, okay, listen, that was bad.
Like that we shouldn't have lost the Packers.
That was done.
We're still very much in control of this division.
The Vikings are losing.
We are okay.
Let's go back to doing what we do well, right?
Let's go back to we are a good team and we know that we're a good team.
And so I think that the Lions are going to come out with a pretty spirited effort in this one.
I also like defensively the way that the Lions are going to be able to match up against the Saints.
Aaron Glenn, remember, came from New Orleans, spent a lot of time watching a Pete Carmichael offense, right?
He kind of knows he.
Good point.
Yeah, he knows he else.
Obviously, like, Dan Campbell came from New Orleans and Dennis Allen kind of knows how that offense goes.
There's a lot of mirror match stuff going on.
But I do think that Glenn's familiarity with this offense is helpful because, you know, this offense is a lot of, like, traditional dropback stuff.
And then common concepts.
And you can kind of key your guys in pretty successfully, get tight to routes, take that stuff away the lines.
week in the secondary,
liable in the past game,
bad over the middle of the field,
the Saints don't have the guys to do it.
They don't have the players.
You usually need to get that done
because the injuries they've had at receiver.
And so,
to me,
this is a nice Lions bounceback spot
in a long week,
minus four and a half.
It's not one of my games,
but this was like,
you know,
on the short list as I'm preparing for the show
and have like six,
this was on my list,
Lyons minus four and a half.
Yeah, I still,
I believe in that offense,
especially against the banged up Saints defense,
against Dennis Allen against Derek Carr's getting frustrated,
all these questions about the Red Zone performance he's had with you.
Listen, the vibes are not good with that Saints team, nor should they be good.
They built a team to win eight or nine games.
They're probably going to win around that many games.
There's going to be ups and downs.
It's never going to be that fun to watch them be here the rest of the way.
They've got injuries, and so I like the lines to bounce back in that spot.
although, yeah, I'm officially nervous about that defense.
So I don't know if the States, like you mentioned,
I have the guys this week to put them in a blender.
But, man, since week six or seven,
that has, that defense has really struggled.
So we'll see if they can bounce back here.
All right.
My last one, I'm pretty sure I'm the only one on any podcast in America
where they pick sides and they pick three games
to pick this team and this side.
But you know what?
You got to change it up when you're struggling.
Carolina Panthers plus five.
and a half? No, I did look at that, though. I don't have the guts to take the Carolina
Fairthers. I did pick that in my column, maybe get the new coach bump. I've got the Washington
commanders plus nine and a half at home against the Miami Dolphins. Washington coming off a blowout
loss offensively, listen, I think they're generally competent and can move the football. I know
it doesn't all. It didn't look that way. Overall, they're mediocre. They're around 20th in
offensive DVOA. They pass the ball on every down.
It got issues up front.
But this Miami Dolphins team, we talked about it last week.
They lose Jalen Phillips for the season.
Javon Holland has not practiced this week.
Now you're talking about two of their best defensive players potentially out for this game.
I think Washington's going to be able to move the football enough to stay in this game.
Now, other side of the ball, oh, baby, I'm nervous.
This could be 40 to nothing at halftime because the Dolphins offense against maybe the worst defense in the NFL,
certainly a bottom five defense.
But you know what?
we're doing a little
Matt Canada theory here.
So like, you got rid of Jack Del Rio.
You get the one game bump with the new defense
with Ron Rivera.
I know he was already working with the defense.
He's calling the defense for this game.
So even if it's 30 to 14 in the fourth quarter,
Sam Hall, you can get me a little backdoor cover,
put together a nice drive.
30 to 21.
Washington, I think after that blowout loss,
no one's going to be picking them.
I like to be on the side.
No one's picking.
I've got the commanders covering plus nine and a half at home against Miami.
You look disgusted.
I think Miami might score 70 again.
If we're being honest, yeah.
70, 61?
All right, get the cover.
The first prop that I looked at was Sam Howell passing overs, his buddy.
They're going to drop back a hole.
55 drop back.
Yeah, something like that.
Over under 39 and a half pass attempts is the official number for Howell.
With the number of sacks that he takes too in the scrant.
Like, that's a lot of dropbacks.
Yeah, I'm looking for the spot to buy a little bit low in the Dolphins over the next couple of weeks,
just as they get healthier along the offensive line,
which has been such a huge issue for them.
Robert Hunt, who is dressed but didn't play last week.
Looks likely to dress but play this week.
That's back to their start and right guard.
Hopefully that's going to help, I think, level this defense,
level this offensive performance out a little bit more run the ball a little better devon a Shane
limited they probably won't be fast with him but in general i think they're going to be going to get
healthy the right time i thought about them this week i decided to pass against it though i wouldn't be surprised
if they dumped 30 on the commanders yeah it uh that would that would not be a shock i just need the
commander's score 21 all right what do you have for your last one i'm waffling shield okay i what do you
got get talk to me well what are we looking at i've looked at cardinals plus five and a half on the road
against the Steelers.
I pick Cardinals in my column, yes.
Yeah.
The Steelers have won seven games this year and they've not won a game by more than
seven points.
And so plus five and a half is just a lot for a team.
Like you're just getting most of the winning roles in there.
Like it feels good.
Titans plus one and a half.
You know, Colts, Colts been surviving on a lot of, you know, cheeky plays and
good late game performance, but no Jonathan Taylor.
Titans are at home.
We're getting that point of the season where the Titans just start ruining it.
other teams seasons.
And this feels like it's like, you know, divisional spot is good.
Falcons minus one and a half.
I've, I've, I've looked at.
You have to take that.
I was going to bring this up.
This is, I feel, is there a bet between you and your mom for this game?
For your new listener, you don't know.
Solex mom is a Jets fan.
She gets upset when he rips the Jets constantly on this podcast.
If you, you have to pick the Falcons and then if they lose to Tim Boyle,
like, if there's something your mom is always like, tell you, you should do this,
you should do it.
And you don't do it.
Like for me, if I lost this bet to my mom, I would have to eat like, you know, 10 almonds.
Because my mom would eat almonds.
It'll make your memory better.
This is my mom thing.
What do you want for me?
If there's something she, because you need to have some bet with your mom on this game.
You need to pick this game for content.
Take the Falcons.
They're facing Tim Boyle.
If they lose to Tim Boyle, you got to do that.
That would be my opinion as team content.
All right.
Well, she will listen to this show on her drive back from work today.
And then she will hit me up and let me know what we should wager.
It'll probably be after call her and talk to her or something.
There you go.
Everybody wins.
Yeah.
Okay.
Falcons minus one and a half.
The problem is,
here's the problem is,
last week I did like Falcons love
slash fade the Saints
and I did,
you know,
I took the Rams alternate line
against the Cardinals.
This week I'm just doing that.
I'm taking the Rams again.
I'm fading the Saints again.
I'm taking the Falcons again.
I feel like it's on original is my problem.
But I guess, you know,
you had seven and O last week.
What do you mean?
Don't fix winning broke.
All right.
I'll take Falcons minus one and a half.
Tim Boyle?
there's my whole logic.
Thank you for listening, Ben and Shield podcast.
Now, the Jets offense is abysmal.
The Falcons defense is legitimate.
I think the Falcons will be able to control game script in this one.
And then they've found their best balance so far this year of the Bijan Robinson into
Tyler Alger usage, where Bejohn gets a lot of those early down touches, those early game
touches.
They get him activated with some schemed up stuff.
They continue to, Desmond Ritter and Bejohn-Robinson cannot get on the same page in
the passing game again in this game.
again in this game, they had multiple reps
where there was an incomplete pass because Bijan
stopped the route that Reda thought it should keep
running. The pick they threw in the
red zone at the end of the first half was
Bejohn running into a route and Desmond
throwing it too fast into him and it hit him in the hands
and it gets intercepted and like those two just cannot figure it out in the past
game which is very frustrating. But get Bejohn
working in the running game and then they use Algear late
and they take Alger and they kind of use them as a hammered
assault games away and they've had a lot of success doing that.
This offensive line is also playing. I think it's best ball
of the season. They were a little underwhelming
to me to start. They've really settled in, been the unit I expected them to be.
So I think they can hang against this Jets defensive line. I'll take Falcons minus one and a half
for the content. For the content. I like, I don't, you know, I don't want to choose to be
insufferable, but if they lose to Tim Boyle, I mean, well, this is, this is probably going to be
my lead take on Monday night, you know, after Monday night football on our next show. I'm not
going to be able to help myself if they lose to Dim Boyle. Let's say, I mean, yes, if you're
going to win the division, this is a game. You've got to win.
52% chance to make the playoffs right now.
If they beat the Jets,
64% chance to make the playoffs.
There you go.
If they win,
you're going to bring it up.
Listen,
I have my Falcons.
I have Falcons and Texans.
And I'm just waiting for the right moment
to cash my receipts.
Listen,
yeah,
I'm with you on the Texans.
You were early on the Texans.
I joined you.
You were early on the Falcons.
I'm not with you.
We'll see.
You will be with me.
Willingly or unwillingly.
By Wild Card Preview Pod.
You will have to be with me.
That's to be determined.
Even if they officially win the division, I still will not do with you.
I will still say it was the wrong side.
All right, recapping my picks for this week again.
We get one point for prop of the week.
We get one point for each of the locks of the week.
And then the long shot, which has to be plus 150, you're better.
That is worth three points.
You have a total of seven points you can get every week.
I've got C.J. Stroud over 261.5 passing yards.
For my long shot, I've got George Kittle.
60 plus receiving yards and the Jaguars plus 14 and a half on Monday night against the Bengals.
I've got my locks, Texans minus three and a half at home against Denver,
Chiefs minus six on the road at Green Bay,
and the Washington commanders plus nine and a half at home against the Miami Dolphins.
What do you got?
Yeah, locks of the week, I have the Rams minus three and a half,
Lions minus four and a half, falcons minus one and a half.
It is the day of small favorites.
For my long shot of the week, Christian McCaffrey,
have at least six receptions plus 154.
And for my prop of the week,
Ramandre Stevenson, over 20 and a half receiving yards against the charger.
There you go.
All right, everybody, enjoy the games this weekend.
Thank you to Cliff Augustine for producing.
Thank you to Eduardo Ocampo for his video production,
additional production supervision by Connor and Evans and Arjuna Ram Gapal.
Next up, Nora and Stephen on dual threat Sunday night,
recapping all the week 13 games.
So be sure to check that out.
Thanks to everyone for listening.
Have a great weekend. We will talk to you Monday night on extra point date.
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