The Ringer NFL Show - NFL Week 14 Picks, Props, and Predictions! | Extra Point Taken

Episode Date: December 8, 2023

The Week 14 action kicked off with the Patriots getting their third win of the season against the Steelers, and currently in place for the second overall draft pick in 2024. Sheil and Ben discuss what the win means for the Pats and how the loss for the Steelers hurts their playoff hopes. Also, the Eagles and Cowboys have a huge matchup that will affect the NFC standings. Plus, picks, locks and nonsense predictions of the week! The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please check out theringer.com/RG to find out more, or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Sheil Kapadia and Ben Solak Producer: Cliff Augustin Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Musical Elements: Devon Renaldo Social: Eduardo Ocampo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The ringer gambling feat is your one-stop shop for all things betting throughout the NFL season. From week one all the way through Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas, we have you covered every which way. We got our favorite futures. We got props. We'll discuss the lines. And, of course, we'll throw in a few parlets. That's a given. So whether you're a sharp or square better, we'll be breaking it down in terms.

Hopefully, everybody can understand. We'll try to win some money along the way. So be sure to subscribe to the ring of gambling feed on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Extra Point Take and Shield Cavadi here joined by Ben Solac. We've just watched the New England Patriots. Solac's New England Patriots go to Pittsburgh, beat the Pittsburgh Steelers, 2118 in Ben. What was actually, you know, a fairly entertaining game? I wasn't bored by that game.

We'll, of course, spend a few minutes on that. And then we'll get to Week 14 this weekend, the storylines, the locks, the props, the predictions, the contest, all of that stuff. But yeah, I was entertained by this game. I mean, it was a great game, but I was entertained. Absolutely. I think a first half of like Bailey Zappy looking competent and like things happening. That's like fun.

It's like, ah, Patriot's like, Zeke, like Zeke, like, he looks slid. He looks slid. He looks good. He looks fresh. So like, that's fun. And then the second half is watching Mitchell Trubisky try to engineer a comeback, which is also a sort of fun, a little bit more like, you know, uh, uh, cringe-worthy fun, gets two short fields, blockbun, garbage stuff,

altogether above expectation for a game that I thought on Sunday, I would be like third screening by the third quarter. Well done, Patriot Steelers. Yeah, this is tough for the Steelers. I mean, two home game, you know, they're seven and four, and then they lose two home games to the Cardinals and to the Patriots. I think they were five and a half point favorites against the Cardinals, six-point favorites against the Patriots.

Those are two of, you know, two of the worst teams. in the NFL this season, and you lose both those games. So now Steelers sit at 7 and 6. We'll see what happens this weekend, but man, that AFC playoff picture is very bunched up, and the Steelers have at the Colts, bengals at home, at the Seahawks, at the Ravens to end the season. So we'll see if Mike Tomlund can pull some magic out of his hat as he tends to do this time of year. All right. I don't know.

I don't think we need to spend too much time on that. game here. Listen, Bill Belichick, he was happy with it. It is nice. I do one of my joys, uh, watching sports. I do like when a very like sucky team that's had a terrible season, they finally kind of get one win, even if it's meaningless. And you can tell, all right, this still means something, uh, to them. So you saw that with Belichick on the sideline. There you go. He gets the win. If you're a Patriots fan, maybe you're, uh, not that happy about it in terms of draft positioning. But hey, you got to win on a Thursday night. You got to enjoy a game. Yeah. I think that's,

That's the big thing for me, which is like, when we did our Monday show, I was like, hey, the Patriots are the only two-win team in the league. They have the inside track on the second pick. Well, now they're with the Cardinals or one of two, three-win teams, which, by the way, means the Steelers have lost back-to-back games to teams that had two wins, which I feel like in the month of December hasn't been done. I have no per statutes for media, per Ben, I don't think that's ever been achieved. No, there was something like that. They actually, I don't know what the exact grad. They showed something, some graphic on Amazon on the broadcast at the end. It was something like a team that's over 500 losing to two win team.

It was something almost exactly like you said. And it was like, this has never happened before. So yes, it is bad. It's the bottom line. You're right. So, okay, it's very hard to do. But now we have renewed interest in the third or the second overall pick where the Patriots and the Cardinals are both tied to three and ten.

You have the commanders who are four and nine, Chicago, Jets, Giants, Tennessee, all four. and eight. I'm telling you, the more I watch these top two quarterbacks, the more that second overall pick is a really, really, really nice pick to have. There are two extremely good quarterback prospects in this class in Caleb Williams and in Drake May. And so two overall, man, that's what I'm watching for all the month of December. It's a big, big, big pick. Patriots have the chiefs at home at the Broncos, at the Bills, home against the Jets. Can they find one more win in there? That could be maybe enough to bump them out of that two spot or maybe out of that three spot, depending on what the Cardinals do.

All right, let's look ahead. We got week 14. We got a good week 14. We got a nice Sunday nighter. We got a nice Sunday afternooner. I don't even know if you even realize, Ben, we have two Monday night games. I was like, oh, they're just doing this again. Okay, I didn't realize that.

We have two Monday night games, which we'll, of course, talk about next week on the Monday night show. But let's start with the headliner. As we always do, what is your headliner as we go into this weekend? Yeah, the headline game for me has got to be Eagles Cowboys. which is a game that functionally is going to define the NFC playoff race as it goes through. Right now, if you look, conference standings, Eagles, the only two lost team still in control of their destiny.

So obviously the ability to have the first round, the first of all seat, excuse me, to have that first round by, which is such a critical, critical thing to have in the one by structure playoff now. But the Niners are nine and three knocking on the door. The lines are in nine and three knocking on the door. And there are those Dallas Cowboys at nine and three knocking on the door because of the Eagles lost to the Niners last week with a win in this game, the Cowboys can tie the Eagles, 10 and 3, 10 and 3. And then accordingly, it comes down to divisional records,

conference records, shared opponent records, because these two teams will have been one-on-one. They will split the series. So this game has the potential to make the NFC East, a hugely visible, a hotly contested division, and then subsequently the entire conference, hugely visible and hotly contested over the course of the rest of the season. So Eagles are now traveling to Dallas.

The game that the Eagles won against the Cowboys earlier in the year, they won by the skin on their teeth, by the hair on their chin-y-chin-chin. It was far from a... emphatic victory. There was a Dr. Dak Prescott stepping out by an inch Luke Schoonmaker touchdown that was by the hair, by an inch

the football wasn't over the line, an extremely close game. And since then, I think you can pretty confidently say that the Eagles arrow has pointed down a little bit. Maybe the Cowboys 28, 23, and then the next games were 21, 17 over the Chiefs, a win, in Arrowhead, great win. But again, a game of

the Eagles far from controlled. 37 to 34, a win against the bills at home. congratulations nice win overtime game certainly far from the game the eagles controlled and then they got lambasted just absolutely lit up by the samfuscule 49ers last week exposing a lot of the issues with that defense and with that offense meanwhile the cowboys who after that loss to the eagles have beaten the giants the panthers the commanders and the seahawks hasn't been the most difficult schedule but have had huge offensive performances over those stretch they feel like they're arrow same if not arrow up a little bit and so this is it right here this is the eagles niners was the most important game

in the NFC playoff race comfortably by a mile up to that point in the season. And already this week, I think it's going to be replaced. Most important game in the NFC playoff race coming up right here, Eagles Cowboys. Yeah, I'm with you. And it just feels like, you know, the records. Don't Eagles are 10 and two, Cowboys are 9 and 3. I think if you just kind of pulled the respective fan bases about how they feel about their teams right now and whether they think the arrow is pointing up or down, you would get two

very different answers. I mean, like you said, Cowboys have beat up on a bad schedule. They had a nice win against the Seahawks last week. I do feel like they kind of need a win like this. You know, they got blown out by the 49ers. You mentioned it. It was a point-flip game last time they faced the Eagles. They easily could have won that game.

But I do feel like if you're going to believe in them, if you're going to say, hey, this year is going to be different. It's been, what, 27 years since they've gotten out of the divisional round. If you're going to say, no, this is the year, they can really make some noise and potentially get to the Super Bowl. You'd like to see them win a game like this for their favorites at home against an Eagles team that's not playing great right now. So Cowboys have a plus 168 point differential, Ben.

Eagles have a plus 41 point differential. I was looking at this. Since 2000, there have been 58 teams, okay, 58 teams that have had at least 10 wins through the first 13 weeks of the season. Where do you think the Eagles point differential ranks among those 58 teams? Did I ask you this already?

We talk a lot, you know, so I don't think so. But there's nothing, there's nothing, Chocopatia loves more than I've been looking at this, Ben, this team with this many wins at this point in the season, where do they rank? All I do now, I'm a professional, where do they rank, guesser on this podcast? That's my role. Remind me what their point differential is? Plus 41. And there's 58 teams? 58 teams that have had 10 wins through the first 13 weeks of the season. They're in the bottom five for sure. I'll say 55th. They are 56. Only the 2019 Seahawks and the 2222 Vikings

were worse. So, uh, yeah. Yeah, there's a reason why Eagles fans are looking at this going, okay, we've had some fun wins there. You beat some good teams. They're excited about those wins against the Chiefs and the bills. But then, man, it felt like every lingering concern, if you're an Eagles fan that you had over the past six, seven weeks, every one of those was exposed last week against the San Francisco 49ers

when you just got completely blown out in that game. So no doubt going to be a fun one. Now, I will say this. I was playing around with the New York Times playoff. simulator. The Eagles can lose this game. If they lose this game and they win their final four, they still have over a 70% chance to get the buy. So that's obviously counting on the Niners, still losing one more game. They've got the Ravens on their schedule. So this isn't like it, but in terms of, yeah, they'd be tied for the same record. You don't control your own fate anymore.

And also just kind of how you feel about the team. This is big, I think, for both band bases and for both team. Yeah, I would say the, if the Eagles win this, even with like the loss of the Niners, it's pretty shut. It's not shot. Like obviously, there's a lot that can happen. But the Eagles play the Giants twice and the Cardinals down the stretch. We have to remember they have an unbelievably light December once they get through the Cowboys and the Seahawks. And so, this is really the, like, the Niners kind of were the one of the one-two punch. If the NFC wants to bust open, the Cowboys of the Second of the one-two punch, the only way to think this becomes, like I wrote last month, the Eagles have control this, this division, this conference. The only way they lose it

is where the Cowboys win. I do want to talk about that potential Cowboys win because we have a special edition, special segment, brought you by Stain Farm. This is a special part of today's episode about elite duos. There are a lot of things that are good together, and nothing recently has been as good together as C.D. Lamb and D. Prescott for the Dallas Cowboys. They're going to win this game. They're going to win on the back of C.D. and Dack. Some of these recent game logs for Ced are bonkers, dude. Against the Seahawks in the win, 12 catches on 17 targets, 116 yards and a score. Against the Giants, he had 11 catches 151 in a score. In the loss to the Eagles, 11 catches for 194-yard shield. 12 catches 158 a week before against the Rams. He has in his last six

games, four of over 100 receiving yards. Now he's going up against an Eagles team that by establish the runs numbers, no receiver, no defense gives receivers a greater boost in their production than playing the Philadelphia Eagles. You're usually at a pass heavy script, right? Because the Eagles defensive are going to put points on you, they're often able to get a lead on you. And then while they have good outside corners in Darius Lane, James Rabri, they ask those guys to solve a ton of problems for them. They live on islands. They're allowed to freelance and be aggressive. And they're both a little bit older. And maybe this season not playing necessarily as well as they have been in the past.

And hey, the Cowboys don't just line CD Lamb up on the outside and have him try to, you know, beat one-on-ones. They hide them in the slot and they put him in the core of the formation. They put them in motion. Now you can get him matched up against Bradley Robey. You can get them over the middle of the field and zone coverage against the Eagles linebackers. There's a lot of ways for a CD-LAM to be very productive against the Philadelphia Eagles. There is no world in which the Cowboys win in which CD-LAM isn't having a good game.

The Eagles could dedicate so many resources to taking him away. but even if they do that and the whole game plan to stop CD bracket CD. Dax's good enough. Jake Ferguson's good enough. Brandon Cox is good enough. You're going to lose that one too. And so it is a CD Lamb-centric performance for the Cowboys against this Eagles defense. And you see the Cowboys favorite in this game, despite the record disadvantage.

I think a huge part of that is because the Eagles defensively do not have an issue for what Dak and CD-Lam have been able to achieve recently down the stretch. Yeah, I mean, moving him around is it's just been, it's opened so much up for them, the way they're using him, the way they're funneling targets his way, and the volume he's that first game against the Eagles. Eagles tried a lot of different things. I mean, some of them were not the wisest, you know, that they had safeties matched up with him one-on-one at times.

They had Eli Ricks matched up with him one-on-one at times. They doubled him at times. But, yeah, Slay and Bradbury are not guys typically, you know, not never, but Slay specifically. They're not going to follow him into the slot and just play man coverage on him for a bulk of this game. So the Cowboys are going to be able to generate some of those matchups. And yeah, it's a huge concern for the Eagles defense. And to get him the ball, also that matchup up front, I think is huge.

That Cowboys' offensive line is playing awesome right now. I mean, both guards are at an all-pro level. Tyron Smith is having kind of a throwback year when he's been healthy and on the field. He was awesome in that first game against the Eagles. And then I think this Eagles pass rush is wearing down. You know, they had a guy. Josh Sweat has already played more snaps this year than he played all of last year.

There are two defensive tackles who first eight, nine games were saying, wow, Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis. Those guys have never played this many snaps in their entire lives, and they're not playing as well. And so third down, Dak Prescott to C.D. Lamb, that is key in this game. Eagles pass rush on the season, seven sacks on third down the entire season. That's tied for last in the NFL. If they can't affect Dak Prescott on third down, oh, man, he's going to be finding Cid

lamb over and over and over again in this game. Yeah, absolutely. And so, DAC and CD, my dynamic duo, my preferred duo of the week, but you know what else is better together, Shield? That is home and auto insurance. And with the State Farm personal price plan, bundling home and auto is just another way to save. It's a pro move when it comes to saving money, letting you call all the plays so you can choose the coverage that fits your needs at a price you can afford. Talk to a State Farm agent today to learn how you can bundle and save with the personal price plan like a good neighbor. State Farm is there.

Prices are based on rating plans to vary by state. Coverage options are selected by the customer. Availability, amount of discounts and savings and eligibility vary by state. There you go. Dan Prescott and C.D. Lamb, are you picking this game later?

Do I have to nail you down here and get your pick before we move on? I'm picking Cid Lamb to have a few receiving guards later. I'll tell you that right now. Okay. But I'm not picking this game later. I think the Cowboys win this game. Eagles are at a spot defensively

where they, like, I can even say, defensively and offensively, where the things that were solving problems for them last year, the rushing ability and the creation ability of Jalen Hertz, and then defensively, the past rush, are not solving the problems for them. And accordingly, a lot of the warts that they've been able to hide for an impressively long time, starting to rear their ugly heads. Eagles are in a bad spot right now. Yeah, we talked about this on the ringers, uh, Philly special, if anyone wants an expanded preview, but it is sort of, you and I talked about the Cowboys issues early in the

season and you were laying out, hey, here's what they need to do to fix them. And you a lot of those things. Eagles could use a dose of a lot of those things, you know, kind of the, hey, you're just relying on one-on-ones to win week after week after week. Let's find some of those easy buttons. Let's make life easier on some of these offensive players. They haven't found those buttons yet. We'll see if they do down the stretch. All right, I've got one more headliner for you. Sometimes we agree on the game. There's two big games this week. Bill's Chiefs is also a monster game. Anytime you have Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes on the field at the same time, that's going to be must-see TV.

Now, earlier this week, Ben, I said, I can't give up on the bills. Since then, Tyler Dunn. There might now be some reasons to give up on the bill. That was my favorite since then, since we started podcasting together. Since then, Tyler Dunn, who runs the wonderful site, go along,

published a monster article about Sean McDermott. The Big Nugget coming out of that in case you didn't see it. is how Sean McDermott made a speech to the team to the team in 2019 about coming together. And the example he used, we was citing the terrorists from 9-11. McDermott actually, like, I think he began his press conference with this today. I mean, if you go on like any, if you go on like ESPN, like the headlines on this, you're just like, wait, what is happening? Like, if you didn't pay attention to anything all day, and just went to one of those.

Okay. So now I have to ask, how did you discover this? because I obviously saw it happen, saw it breakings. No, yeah, no, I saw it on social media first, but then when I was going on ESPN later, I'm like, oh, yep, there's the headline. So you've got, so he had to address this. He didn't deny any of it.

He, you know, admitted to it. I said he apologized right away. Again, this was back in 2019, but still a weird thing to be talking about on the Thursday before you're trying to save your season against Patrick Mahomes and indie read. So you've got that. You've got this Von Miller story,

which probably isn't getting a, enough attention, in my opinion. I mean, he's facing very, very, very serious and heinous, if true, allegations of assaulting a pregnant woman in Texas, the mother of some of von Miller's children. And he turned himself into the police, was released on bond, and now he's going to be allowed to play in this game and gave a no comment about everything today. So, you know, it's just like, what is happening with this? Bill's team. It's like from a on-field, just, hey, the product I saw two weeks ago against the Eagles, yeah, I can get behind that, that that team has enough down the stretch to get hot

to win like five or six games and make a surprise appearance in the postseason. Right now, according to DVOA, they've got about a 12% chance. They face the hardest remaining schedule, but they still have Josh Freak and Allen. And man, that gave me, played against the Eagles two weeks ago. I can't get it out of my head. I mean, he can put a team on his back when he's, He's right. So you got the Von Miller stuff. This McDermott thing is obviously just like so weird and embarrassing and like, wait, did he really do that? Like it's just, I mean, it's hard to wrap my head around.

Now, honestly, so I don't know what's going to happen in the final five weeks of the season, but that game going to Kansas City, a chief's team coming off a loss, a chief's team still fighting for that number one seed in the AFC. Alan Mahomes, that's the other headliner this week. a huge game from a playoff picture perspective. Now, I think like the impact of the McDermott thing will have on the team is probably like not as huge as we would think it is

just because the guys who were there already knew it happened. Yeah, it's not new. That's true. And I'm sure the guys who weren't there, like, first you probably heard about it at some point. But like it's just been there. Like I don't think there are many people for the bills for whom this was breaking news, right?

So I don't think that'll have too big of an impact. The Von Miller thing is, like he shouldn't be playing and the fact that he's playing is terrible. Vonn's on the field impact this season has been minimal. Like he's not been a productive player. And so they've had a phone from games. He's not healthy. And so while it's a big name in terms of Von Miller, again, for like an on field perspective when we just kind of take that narrow scope, I doesn't move the needle for me too much on the bill. So like this could like I guess fall under distraction category in terms of the Sean McDermott stuff. I'm sure in the building they're also say, oh, the Von Miller is

distraction stuff. That's kind of the NFL podifies it, which is a bad way of doing so. But other than that, like it doesn't, to me, impact on the field thing too much. And I do think that with how well the bills have been playing, especially offensively, they have a really good shot to beat the Chiefs with the season on the line knowing so. The injury for Isaiah Pacheco, and the Chiefs potentially coming into this game is an enormous one. The Chiefs have just, as they've been, you know, developing the offense and figuring out the passing game, where do our receivers go? they've really deployed a inch you down the field,

never get into third and long, ball control style of offense that relies on this offensive line and really relies on Isaiah Pacheco, who's just like a nice young player, good back. And behind him, it's Clyde Edwards Allaire, it's Jaredick McKinion. It's not really the sort of guys you want Toten the Rock.

Like, he's really their best back. And they got a couple scat backs behind him, but in terms of a runner, it's Pacheco. There's a good chance that he won't, he didn't practice on Thursday. There's a good chance that he'll miss this game. if he does and they have to enter shootout mode with the bills, they are not equipped for that.

We know that of this offense. They are not equipped for it. I think this is a really, really important spot for the bills in a game that they probably should win. McKinnon, I think, is also on the injury report there for the Chief. So defensively, it looks like they'll get Nick Bolton back at linebacker, but last week the safety Brian Cook went down. He hasn't practiced this week.

And, of course, left tackle. Donovan Smith has not practiced yet this week. I might have something to say about this game. It sounds like you're leaning. Are you picking this game or not? I have something to say about this game a little bit later as well. Okay. I do as well.

So we'll talk more about that game in a little bit. All right. Let's take a break. We'll come back. We'll get to our Monday morning storyline. All right. We are back on extra point taking. What do you have?

So like, what are we talking about Monday morning? Or it could be Tuesday morning after week 14. I think we're legitimately talking about Joe Flacko. I know I thought you're going to say something else because you said it as like Sheel you know what I'm going to say that's not what I thought you were going to say

I just there was I didn't want to give it any sort of like fun preamble because I don't like that we're here I don't feel good about this I talked to Flacco a little bit on Monday I think that everybody who's like a film guy who went and watched that Browns Rams game came away just being like

Joe Flacco's kind of slinging it like he was throwing the ball and wrestling he was attacking down He's throwing the anticipation. It looked like a veteran quarterback out there who knows that his body isn't what it needs to be and he can't really manage pressure. He's got to get rid of the ball quickly. But is that all right?

Amari Cooper goes down. I'm just going to make Elijah Moore a primary downfield target. The only quarterback who has ever made Elijah Moore look like what people want Elijah Moore to look like ever. Has been Joe Flacco. Such an interesting sensation. But the Joe Flacco performance for the Browns is the best quarterbacking we've seen for the Browns. certainly since Deshaun Watson went down. Heck, it might be the best quarterback

and we've seen for the Browns, period. They are right now looking at a Jaguars team that is hoping to get Trevor Lawrence back for this game. That is fingers crossed. Maybe we get, like, oh, it's a low ankle sprain. It's only a couple of weeks. And Lawrence, I mean, like, Lawrence is really starting to, the injuries he plays with is something.

This guy's legs, he's got gummy legs, man. He's constantly like MCL strain and ankle strain, and he's just out there trying to run around, make stuff happen. But if they're getting CJ Beth or the Browns get that, that draw on the Jaguars, which could be a huge stroke of luck for them. And they win this game. They're only had 80% chance, 84% chance to make the playoffs, according to the New York

Times playoff simulator, which, by the way, I learned, the simulator actually runs simulations. And so, like, the number changes sometimes when you do it. So I keep on, like, saying a number with confidence. And then someone would be like, I check this, it's three percentage points lower. And it's just because they actually, like, run it, whatever, roughly 80% chance for the rounds to make the playoffs. And I think with their defense, playing the way that it is.

With Flacco managing the offense and not turning the ball over and kind of keeping things on schedule. And with a remaining schedule that includes the Bears, the Jets, and the Jake Browning Bengals, yeah. Like, we could watch a Joe Flacco playoff game in 2024. And to me, that's, firstly, hilarious. But secondly, important and meaningful because teams are going to relook at how they consider QB2 this off season with all the QB1 injuries we've had this season. And Flacco was just there.

Dude, he was just available. So many teams are going for. rookie contract QB2s and get as cheap as the position as you can because it's a great advantage if you can develop a guy, you can develop an A& O'Connell, like what a huge advantage that'll be for your team. Like that's very clearly a prevailing mindset in the NFL where more and more teams are carrying rookie contract quarterbacks. But you do have to remember that like, hey, it's really handy to have a veteran in the back pocket. He can actually save your season and actually take you to the postseason. I think Joe Flacco might do that for the Browns, which holy smokes,

you told September Ben that he was going to be talking about this. Goodness gracious, but here I am. Yeah, I think that what really stood out, you're right. I mean, he hasn't lost anything with that arm. I mean, he was just like, he can throw the football. It really stood out just like he's in a spot where he can be protected with this Brown's offensive line. Like that was much, you know, this is much different than last year's version of Joe Flacco with the chats. If there's pressure, he's going to crumble, he's going to make bad decisions. He's going to take sacks.

He's going to fumble the football. If he has time and he knows where to go and gets rid of it, yes, he can still throw. he can still be accurate. He can still make every throw in the book. So my Monday morning storyline is kind of adjacent to that game. We might be talking about, are the Texans going to win the AFC South? Because I'm looking at that Jags Cleveland game. And you're right. I mean, it's either going to be a hobbled Trevor Lawrence, which, you know, they could still win the game, or it's going to be C.J. Bethard going to Cleveland against a very good Browns defense that could get Denzel Ward back at quarterback. Maybe Miles Garrett is more healthy.

healthy a healthier this week than he was last week. And don't forget, that Jags team, it wasn't just Lawrence last week. Walker Little, their left tackle, who was their backup left tackle, got injured on that play. And so now you're talking about a third string left tackle, Blake Hans potentially playing in this game. Christian Kirk, you lost in that game.

So like it way, I mean, Lawrence obviously was the big one, but man, that could have been like a devastating game for them in terms of the guys they lost. So they lost those guys. Browns are getting healthier. Meanwhile, the Texans go to MetLife Stadium to face the Jets.

Now, it could be a little bit of a tricky spot that Jets defense is still legit. I feel like C.J. Stroud has had to go into creation mode a little more than I would like the last couple weeks. You know, for a while there was like, ooh, everything's in rhythm. He's operating this offense. And now he's had to put a little more on his plate and now you don't have Tank Dell. So I still think the Texans win that game. I still pick them to cover. They're not part of my picks later.

but I do like them to cover there. So if the Texans win and Jags lose, well, now of a sudden, those two teams are tied at eight and five. And right now, if you look at the odds, it's kind of wild. Jags are minus 220 to win the AFC South. Texans are plus 330.

Like, I don't know if that should be, you know, that's quite a gap there. Yeah, you've already got some money on the Texans, it sounds like. I have been on the Texans to win the AFC South three separate occasions this season. The third one being. Including 30 seconds ago.

Yeah. No, it was like three days ago after the Trevor Lawrence injury. All right. It was 380 then. 3.30 now. We got a good price, shield. C.LV. It's what matters.

From a real, not even real, like film sicko, but just like from a film head perspective, from like just like a watching football and love and football perspective, I'm so excited for Houston offense against Jets defense. I'm legitimately like I'm cannot wait for this matchup because the Jets defense, in comfortably in the league by a mile, is the most. We're going to line up and play our guys in the back seven.

We run like two coverages. Throw it. Throw it. Go ahead. Two have it. Throw it. Go for it. And C.J.

Stroud and quarterback for the Texans. Certainly among all the young quarterbacks, maybe amongst all the quarterbacks, is the most. I'll throw that guy that we've got in the league. This is, this is like as line up and beat you aggressive of a past defense as there's in a league against a lineup and beat you aggressive of a quarterback as there is in the league. Like, he's going to look at Nico Collins going head. head to head with Sauce Gardner on the outside and go like, yeah, I'm ripping it. My guy's going to beat your guy.

I'm going to put it where you can't get it. It is, this is, it doesn't feel like heavyweight stuff because like Stroud doesn't have that reputation and the Jets aren't that good. Texans offense against Jets defense to me is like on the level of Eagles Cowboys. Like, just that scheme matchup of how those two teams are built and how they go against each other, how they match up with one another. Like, we are either in for Stroud's worst performance and the Jets just like take the rookie and go, yeah, no, no, like go back to the film room, young man.

We'll see you in a couple years. or Stroud just absolutely puts a stamp on what's one of the best rookie quarterback seasons we've ever seen by dropping 300 on the Jets. I cannot wait for just that matchup in a vacuum. Consequences and playoff outcomes be what they may. Yeah, it's top five passing offense first, top five passing defense. I mean, listen, when the other team has the ball and the other teams on defense, you can, you know, you can flip around a little bit or do your multi-type.

My dynamic duo was almost Will Anderson and John Grinardt just been excellent pass rush for the Texans. I just wanted them to have a little bit better of a quarterback match. than Zach Wilson to like highlight them for State Farm, you know? No, yeah, you are right. I mean, the Texans defense last week got, I mean, Derek Stingley. Oh, baby. I mean, that one interception in the middle of the field and he had two in that game, Willie Anderson was their defense really carried them in that game last week.

That wasn't a typical Texans offense is dominating. That was like, oh, no, your defense has to make some plays. And they did. They got after it. So, yeah, I think it's going to be a tough day at the office for Zach Wilson. But listen, the Jets defense keeps them in a lot of these games. and that could be the case here once again. All right, it's that time to look at the extra.

Yeah, maybe we do need a sound drive. I don't know, it's week 14. We'll work on that for next year. It's still late now. We have to look at the extra point-taking contest after last week, Benny Souls. Where are we as we head into 1450s? For the last five weeks of the season, and then the playoffs. We're doing this contest through the playoffs.

We'll figure out the rule. the rules will probably be exactly the same, I would think. But we'll say, we'll figure that out what we need to. So we've got a waste to go here. Where do we stand going into week 14? For the fourth time in 14 weeks, we're tied. How are we tied after 14 weeks? What were the odds of this?

Not only are we tied. People were critical of like our scoring system. Like, oh, this should be worth this and it should adjust for that and everything. We are having completely polar opposite seasons picking and we are dead tied to the scoring system. The scoring system is perfect. Okay, write that down.

It's excellent. I have... Put that in the newspaper. Yes, my favorite line. I have 40, you have 40. I have 40 points, and I have three the past week, doing exactly what I've been doing all season. I got my locks of the week, right?

Swept them, Rams covered against the Browns, lines covered against the Saints. That one got a little sweaty. Falcons covered against the Jets. And then I missed my prop, which again, we went for running back receiving totals, and missed on it. And I missed my long shot,

running back receiving totals and missed on it. Ramadre Stevenson, by the way, was my pick. He got hurt in that game. And then we just watched Zika Ali and have like 70 receiving yards, which is all I wanted last week. Those were all Ramadres last week.

He gets hurt and he goes down. You got five points on the week. Doing what you've been doing all week, which was nailing the long shot. George Kittle went over 60 receiving yards and you needed the Jags to cover an alternate line against the Bengals, which looked a little sweaty there for a bit.

You had CJ Stroud over 260. one and a half passing yards, going back to the well successfully. And you did get the Texans to cover against the Broncos. Lost two more for you locks of the week. Chiefs and commanders both failed to cover. So now on the season, locks of the week, just against the spread, I am hitting at 59%. You are hitting it 38.5%. Putting our combined total at 48%.

Just an anchor dragging us below the red line. But then again, on long shot of the week, something that is plus 150, something that should be hit around 39, 40% of the time, you are hitting 46% of the time, six of 13 Opportunity Shield. If you hit long shot of the week this week, you'll have hit three in a row. You'll have hit half of your long shots. I cannot believe that we are still tied with these. I'm the props guy. You're the spreads guy. We are just total opposites. That's what we should be. And we're here 40, 40, 40 in a dead heat with four weeks or five weeks left in the seat. Yeah, if somebody just took your locks and took my.

long shots and props, they'd be having a great year. I'm at 54% on props here at 38%. I'm 46% on long shots here at 31%. And you're 59% on against the spread and I'm 38%. I don't know what's going on. Let's see if the trend continues. If someone wants to try that method, take Solax games, take my props, take my long shot and see where you are. You can go ahead and do that. It is wild. I love looking at this spreadsheet. Luke is doing an awesome, an awesome job breaking this down. Otherwise, we wouldn't have known. We wouldn't have had all that data. Okay, let's start with the props. I'm the prop king.

No, I'm kidding. You go first. What do you got? What do you got for your prop of the week? You absolutely are. I'm going with CD Lambda over seven and a half catches in this game against the Eagles. It's minus 106 in the juice for, for, for Fandul. But the, like I said, C.D. Lam over his last six games, he's had at least 14 catches.

Or excuse me, he's had at least 11 catches in four of those six. And so we're clearing that number comfortable. Wow. That's a crazy like number over 11 catches in four of six. So honestly, like this, this is one that I've taken personally and I've taken the alternate reception lines up the ladder a little bit. Even in those games where he hasn't hit those numbers, he has had nine targets in each game.

It's very rare to find a CD-Lam game over the last month, month and a half of football where he just doesn't get insane volume. Like even when he's when he's missing and they're not connecting downfield, they're still trying to funnel him the ball. That's why I prefer receptions to receiving yards because I do think there are worlds where the Eagles say we're really going to take away CD within structure a lot. Even in those worlds, I do think they're going to find ways to follow him the ball. There's going to get him forced catches, right?

They're going to get him catches at the line of scrimmage, design plays for him, and see if he can do stuff for them after the catch. So I do prefer receptions to receiving yards. I think both work. Certainly now that I've said, he's going to have like seven catches for 1,200 yards and it's going to look ridiculous. But I talked about a lot of the top, CD Lamb over seven and a half catches, my property. Yeah, I really, they're really doing a good job of making it hard to just hone in on him

and take him out of the game with the way they're using him. So they deserve credit for doing that. All right. I'm going with an under. Haven't gone with an under for a little while here. I'm going Gino Smith under 245.

The big number. Passing yards. That's the first note I have down. You're reading my Google Doc. I love it. It's a big number against the 49ers defense that I thought their coverage was outstanding last week on film against the Eagles,

Charverius Ward was excellent. These two teams played on Thanksgiving. Gino went 18 for 27, for 180 yards. These two teams have played four times over the past two seasons, and Gino's been over this number just once in those four games. So also worth noting Gino was on the injury report with a little bit of a groin injury on Thursday. I mean, I don't think he's in danger of missing the game, but, you know, could be something that hampers him a little bit.

I think the Seahawks will have trouble blocking that front. So listen, Gino, if he plays the way he did, in that game like you did against the Cowboys, then I'm going to lose this bet because I didn't think those were like easy plays, easy throws. I mean, he was making some high degree of difficulty throws. He threw for 3.34 against Dallas last Thursday night,

which is not easy. But I think this 49ers team hasn't given up a lot of explosive plays. I think they're kind of finding themselves. And so I've got Gino under that number, 2.45 and a half. There you go. Are you on this game spreadwise? I may be talking about this game later, yes.

All right, we'll talk about it later then. More to come. That's how you keep a pop shield. There we go. All right. What do you got for your long shot? By the way, I always forget to it. Does everyone, everyone has to know the rules of this by now, right?

Do we still get new listeners? I don't know. I'll just do it out of habit. I'm a nice person, you know? So if you're new listening, this is for you and you only, you can get a total of seven points. Your prop counts for one. And then we'll do locks of the week,

which is just picks against the same. spread, three of them, those each count for one, that's four, and then the long shot of the week has to be plus 150 or higher. That's worth three points. You can get a total of seven points in any given week. So this is the long shot of the week. What does Solek have this week? I have Dijian more to have over 90 receiving yards, plus 154 against the Detroit Lions. The Bears played this, this Lions team two weeks ago. He had seven catches for 96 yards. Last week against the Vikings, 13 targets, 11 receptions, 114 yards. DJ Moore, and those are the two games, by the way, with Justin Fields back in the lineup,

with Tyson Bayesian, the numbers were lower with fields, they jump up. Wide receiver ones against the Detroit Lions, but having a fun time, right? It's been a good year. You'd be a Chris Olive against the Detroit Lions last week, kind of got to skip the Packers because the Packers went to a real wide receiver one. DJ Moore, when they played a few weeks ago, Keenan Allen, had a monster game against them with the Chargers, Devante Adam, a monster game with the Raiders. The wide receiver one tends to be really successful against the,

the lions. They just, they don't have the wider Super 1 eraser. Cam Sutton is a good corner. He's not a great corner. And then they also, the lions are pretty easy to manipulate schematically, right? They don't run a ton of different stuff in the secondary. They're pretty bad in zone coverage if they're trying to hide you that way. DJ Moore is going to get funneled and we already know Lions don't have an answer for him. I also really like, uh, I've been checking every five minutes to see if this bear's line will drop to plus three and a half so I can snag it for for the, for the game. It's at plus three right now. The total is at 43 and a half. I love this to be shootout. I tell you, this lion's defense, there's few units in the league that have concerned

me more watching film up last month or so than this lion's defense. And you saw that in a Bears game. More had 96 yards in that game. And the Bears were sitting on a two-score lead for most of the second half. They weren't really in go mode. There's a way this gets shoot outy. And so you'd see a lot of points, a lot of opportunities for more to jack up receiving yards. 90 plus is 154. I like that. I like it a little bigger too. Yeah, I like that. That is a good one. I mean, the Bears had that game against the Lions a few weeks ago. I mean, they were up, I think, 26, 14, with under five minutes left,

and they blew that game, let the Lions come back. Now, that was in Detroit. This one, we've talked about outdoor Jared Gough before. If you're going to pick against the Lions, you know, this would be a spot to pick against them. Yeah, I'm with you. I took the Bears plus three in my column, but I was like, come on.

It's like plus three at like plus 100. I'm like, can we just get that to plus three and a half, please? Yeah, just give me a little, yeah, please, give me that. So we'll see by the time. it's not one of my picks here, but I do like the bear side of that a little bit. And I like your read there with DJ Moore. Lions also lost Alim McNeil.

He's on IR, I think, this week. They don't have a great pass rush. And, you know, he was one of their best interior pass rushers, best defensive tackle, so they don't have him there. All right, my long shot of the week, I'm going back to that Eagles Cowboys game. But I'm going with, yeah, boy. I don't know if he's your boy. I just felt like saying that.

Jake Ferguson, 60 plus receiving yards, plus 164. So, Solac will be saying, throw it to Citi. And I'll be saying, throw it to Ferguson. And Doc will be saying, don't worry about it. I'm going for 400 today. There's room. Everybody's going to eat. He's like, yeah, you'll both be fine.

Just give me a couple more possession. So last time these two teams faced off, Jake Ferguson was targeted 10 times, had seven catches for 91 yards. The Eagles are 31st in DVOA against tight ends. They are not good in the middle of the field. They are not good at linebacker. Kevin Byrd is their tight end matchup when they're in man coverage. I think Jake Ferguson can make plays against Kevin Byard.

So we saw again, we saw this a few weeks ago in this very matchup. We saw it last week. Ferguson played well against the Seahawks. We saw it last week. The Eagles given up, you know, 60 yards to George Kittle in the first half, which, thank you. That was very nice. Then they didn't, you know, make me sweat that out.

So I think some seam balls to Jake Ferguson. We know Dak is awesome at throwing those. I think he's going to have a big game. I thought about making this just my prop. I think it was in the 40s, 45-ish, I want to say, was the straight prop. Instead, I said, you know what, let's make this the long shot and just go 60 plus receiving yards plus 164 to Jake Ferguson. And there you go.

I tell you, man, if I were a tight end coming out, the draft. Okay. I would, the moment I would, I would, I would go to every meeting at the combine. Oh, Cardinals, nice to meet you. Texans, it's nice to meet you. The second I got to the Dallas Cowboys room, Dak Preston's quarterback, like, gentlemen, sir, how are you? Love your, a great organization, big fan of you guys. I'm a very hard worker. Love football. Anything, anything to play tight end for Dak Prescott. The way that Prescott treated Schultz and now the way that he treats Jake Ferguson, these boys will be covered by multiple players. And down back, yeah, I can hit that window, don't worry about it.

He throws to the tight end in the middle of the field with a dedication and a belief that is rare in the league. First, versus a good player. Don't get me wrong. But it is crazy. I did Dak Prescott for the play sheet this week. It's on the Spotify feed. It's on YouTube.

The windows that he's willing to throw his tight end is something to say. Jake Ferguson, the good player with the beneficiary of one of the most tight end favorite friendly quarterbacks I can remember. It's crazy. There you go. Do what Sulek says you do. You know, you don't have to. go against that.

Just stick with it for one more week at least. All right. Take a break. We'll come back. We'll get to our nonsense prediction and then our locks of the week. All right.

We are back on extra point taken. All right. This is not part of the contest. Although thank you. Everyone was hitting me up. So like last week when an ejection in Eagles 49ers saying, Sheel, you guys called it.

So I appreciate that. I appreciate people listening. engaging. I don't engage during the game. So like will engage you during the game. I'll see it after the game. Don't worry. He's got you. Did you see, uh, so I was the nonsense prediction, Eagles, Niners fight ejection. Did you see the report, uh, Dom DeSandro and Dre Greenlaw exchanged apologies via intermediaries?

Football's so dumb. Exchange apologies through intermediaries? Just brass for the guy's number and text him. Sorry. I would, it is a life goal of mine now to exchange an apology. an intermediary. We need to have a big brouhaha huge fight. So I can text Cliff to text you. I'm sorry. Let's get some exchange apologies through intermediaries. Yeah, you can just let Cliff know, let Eddie know, let one of them know if you need something communicated to me. It could be an

apology. It could be a screw you. It really could be anything. But you can go through an intermediary. Yeah, that one was, I did see that. And I was like, wait, what? We need more intermediaries. What is happening here? Critical. I agree with that. All right, what he got this week? What is going to happen this weekend that you are predicting. So I would like it known that I wrote this before the Sean McDermott stuff came out. It's not like it's not related to it. But I think Josh Allen gets- I'm nervous.

Go get the dump button ready. It's pro vibes for the bills, which I don't know like. All right, gotcha. Bill's positive vibes kind of weird. Yeah, they need it. Josh Allen's getting his first overtime win this week. Josh Allen is 0 and 6 in overtime in overtime in his career as a starter over six years. he's lost two overtime games the season,

the season opener against the Jets, and then most recently, two weeks ago when they lost to the Eagles, they had that game against the Vikings last year where they had an enormous lead, and then they gave it away late, and the Vikings tied it up, and they won an overtime,

and then, of course, very famously, 2020 season into 2021 playoffs, he loses to the Chiefs, 42 to 36, the 13th second game. Really the game that I think started the mental deterioration of the entire Buffalo Bill's franchise. Yeah, that's,

that that's the beginning of the end there. And so you and I are very pro Bill's Cinderella playoff run. You and I are very pro. What if the bill's got it done? Great offense. AFC playoff pictures wide open, whatever. In order to get there,

you got to exercise your demons. You have to cast away that which has been haunting you, the shadow over your shoulder for these years. They're going to play the Chiefs. The game is going to go to overtime. They're going to walk out for that coin flip. It's going to land bills,

going to land tails. They're going to say, we want the ball. Josh Allen's going to get the ball. They're going to drive down the field, score six points, and Alan will win his first overtime game. He will win it against the Kansas City Chiefs against Patrick Bohomes in Arrowhead. And it will be like, all right, we did it. We won our overtime game.

We beat the Chiefs. We're ready to go. We're ready to turn on the page and move on. First overtime win for Alan coming this week. I like that. I like the specifics there that it's not going to go back and forth. They're going to get the ball first. They're going to score, like Matt Hasselbeck said, back in the day.

So there you go. That's a good one. mine is, I think we're going to get someone making a sincere, legit Jake Browning Nick Bulls comparison. Yes! I think I made one as a joke on Monday night, but Bengals are one and a half point favorites at home against the Colts. They're six and six after the upset win against the Jaguars. If they win this game, they'll be seven and six. I don't think they're making the playoffs, but Vikings at stake.

sealers at Chiefs, Browns, at home to end the season. Not impossible to go three and one in that stretch. You go 10 and 7. So, I mean, listen, Browning was legitimately good on Monday night. I don't know if he will ever be able to recapture that magic, but I think there's a chance he could play well against this Colts team. I actually like the Bengals a little bit in that game, not one of my picks, but I like the Bengals to cover the one and a half there.

So I think if Browning plays well and the Bengals win that game, somebody's going to get carried away. there's going to be some Nick Foles, Jake Browning, side by side or just some, hey, the Eagles did it in 2017. Why can't the Bengals do it? It's a wide open season, that kind of thing. So there you go. Jake Browning, meet Nick Foles. Nick Foles, meet Jake Browning. I wrote this week about the quarterback injuries and just kind of a state of all the backups in front of the playoff race. And it reminded me of my favorite graphic ever, which was the 2017 championship games graphic, where it was the four championship game quarterbacks looking at the Lombardi trophy. And it's Tom Brady. Blake Bortals, Case Keatim, and Nick Foles. Oh my gosh, wow. You don't know what I'm talking about? This is like, I don't think I've ever seen that to you. It's like, the NFL accounts all I tweeted and put it on Instagram,

like, hype for conference championship season. And you're just looking at it like, come on. You have to do it. But that's tough, isn't it? It's a tough graphic. That's kind of where we feel like we might be. We might be on divisional round being like, listen, this, you know,

Jake Browning, C.J. Bethard rematch could really be critical for the, you know, who wins who goes to Chicago Championship Sunday. Like, that's where we might be at with, with the number of injuries that we've got. Joe Flacco might win a playoff game in 2024, dude. I don't love it, but it's true. And so I, I, the, uh, the Nick Foles comparisons,

I definitely feel like you're coming. You can, you can, you can smell that kind of swirl as, as we get closer to the playoffs. Yeah, I mean, look at this AFC playoff picture right now. You would have, you could have potentially C.J. Bethardt. You could have Joe Flacco. You could have Gardner Minshu in there.

NFC is a little bit more stable, but you could have Josh Dobbs potentially in there. I guess he's probably the only... Yeah, the AFC playoff picture. Like, if, let's say, like, the Texans handle their business, then there's going to be two spots left, and the team's fighting for them will be led by Mitchell Chubisky,

Jake Browning, Joe Flacco, and Gardner Minchu, and the teams below them that are trying to claw their way into a birth, like, oh, lucky, last minute of break, will be the ones quarterbacked by Josh Allen and Justin Herbert. Hilarious world we live in. Excellent, excellent playoff picture where that's the order of things.

That sets up very good. Final five weeks of this season. All right. Let's get to the good stuff. Come on, Sheal. You got to bounce back this week. You got to, you know, I thought about last week I wore, you know, an actual shirt, shaved, no hat.

And I did get five points last week. So I'm like, did I do that? I mean, I would live a five. But then I'm like, yeah, but she'll, you got one pick against the spread, right? So I don't know if you need to do that. And I got laces, but I didn't do that this week. All right, locks of the week, start us off based on our conversations throughout the show.

I think we might be on some opposite sides here. Let's see. What do you got for your first one? I will say, if you were wearing a shirt and shaved, it is 1230 on the East Coast. That would be a top time. I don't have that in me. Yeah, exactly. You know me well enough to know that's not happening.

Thursday night record. No, I'm in a hoodie. It was Friday afternoon morning where maybe I can go to lunch with my wife after then, maybe, but yeah, Thursday night at 12.30 a.m. That's not happening. I'm on a side that I know for sure you're not on, which is the Falcons minus two and a half at home against the Bucks. This line opened it too. It was down to one. It's back

up to two and a half. This Bucks team is just not a real threat to me. They haven't been all season. Baker Mayfield's a worst quarterback than Desmond Ritter is by most outstanding metrics. I know people get mad. We talk about Ritter, but if you just look at numbers, you look at models, Baker's

not as impactful as Ritter is. Certainly not when Ritter's at home. Ritter's been playing a lot better at home than he has been playing away. Falcons offensive lines got some injuries. There's some bangs up. Drew Dahlman's potentially out for this game. Caleb McGarry is potentially out for this game along the outside on the right side. That is something to worry about. That's where they've been better running the ball. But overall, I think that they have the advantage in the trenches where besides Vita Vaya, this hasn't been a good run defending front this season.

Injuries at linebackers for the Buccaneers has weakened their past defense even more than it's already been this season. Falcons are just a better team. They have the division control over the division, control over their destiny, and they've been really good at home this year. This line should be at least three and a half, in my opinion. The fact that I'm getting the field goal is great for me. I like the Falcons minus two and a half.

You don't think the NFC South is just destined to come down to like week 18, week 17, and all three teams are still in it. It still could, I guess, if the Falcons win this game. Very well, good, yes, of course. I just think that for a Falcons team where you've officially now, okay, like, Derek Carr's banged up. Like, obviously he's, he's practicing, so he's trying to get out there.

But you won that game against the Saints. You established yourself as the leader in the division. Now you go home against the Buccaneers. Like, this is the game that just gives you the solid line forward. I think they're going to have a really big, impressive performance. And every time I always do this, I always get mad to myself. I talk about the Falcons, I talk about the offense,

I'm trying to defend myself against your glances. And I forget to bring up the fact that this is a top 10 defense. This is really, you know, settle down. They feasted on a horrible schedule. You DVOA, they're not. They're 24th, they're 25th. They got out gained by the Jets last week. I'm not buying this defense at all.

Now, they could play well this week because it's another bad opponent. And to be fair to you, that was part of your reasoning for picking the Falcons is because their strength, you know, their strength of schedule suck this year. So I will say that part's ballot. I don't think this is a, like, I think this is a fine, mediocre middle of the road type defense. There are a top 10 defense by success rate. I think talent-wise, when you look at them,

you can tell if they're not that unit, I can never finish my sentences. And a lot of that sample, right, 13-game sample is a sample that includes Grady Jarrett. And the lack of Grady Jarrett is certainly evident on the scene. They've done a nice job working around that. And young players stepping up for them

has been such a big deal. And Arnold W. Katie, rushing off the outside, Jeff Akuta and AJ Terrell, the corners of the have on the outside. They are banged up there a little bit. But I always just feel bad I never bring up this defense, which has done such a nice job, bailing the offense out of some sticky spots.

and generally, like, you can say, oh, they beat up on a soft schedule and you're not wrong, but there's a lot of defenses in the league that don't beat up on a soft schedule when they should, right? Like, this Steelers defense is supposed to be a top 10 defense, and they let Bailey Zappi put 21 first half points on them. Like, this is an offense driven league, and a lot of times we'll see top defenses get weak offenses and still make mistakes and fall away and have these bad games. The Falcons under, again, a first year DC and Ryan Nielsen playing really left-handed, right? They don't have the personnel to be playing this defense. They're playing with Dean P's personnel in this Ryan Neelson defense. Now, 13 games, large-no sample for me where they're making a lot of chicken salad out of chicken,

you know what. I'm impressed with this unit. I don't think they're actually a top 10 most feared unit. I don't think they're like, you know, like numbers-wise, they certainly look better than the roster would project. But this is still a good group, and they're plenty capable of handling this Bucks team. AJ Terrell, it looks like his in concussion protocol as we record this. So that's obviously a big one, one of their best defensive players, their best corner there, whether he plays or he doesn't play.

All right. Solax got the Falcons. I'm not touching that game. I hate even picking Falcons games. I never know which way to go. I'm always on the fence. I'm always like, should I just hedge? Maybe I should just pick the Falcons.

And if they lose, you know, then I can just say, but I don't like touching those games. I have no feel for when they're going to win, when they're going to lose. All right. Next team I do have a feel for. We have a feel for it because they're the team of extra point taken. And they're that Green Bay Packers. I'm sorry I doubted you last week.

I thought the moment was too big for you. In Kansas City, I thought I liked this team, but you know what? They're going to Casey again. I'm sorry, they're hosting the Chiefs and is going to be a big spot for them. They're not going to be able to handle it. They're going to make some mistakes. Chiefs are going to win that game.

What happened? All the Packers did was turn in one of the most efficient offensive performances, legit top five that we've seen from any offense this entire season in terms of EPA per drive. So I just think, I'm just like, I'm going to just take the Packers every week, the rest of the sea. I believe in them. I think they're undervalued. I think this offense is legit.

Can move the ball. I think they're clicking between Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love. Not going to have Christian Watson for this game, but you mentioned it on the Monday show. They've got other wide receivers, littleontavian wig. They've got other guys. Bob. Yeah, they got people they can throw the football too. So I'm not worried about that.

So I like this Packers team quite a bit. I like this Packers offense quite a bit. could get Jaya Alexander, their best cornerback back for this game. So that's something to keep an eye on as well. And I think this Giants team, so I didn't even say the number yet, did I? Packers minus six and a half against the Giants is the actual pick. I think this Giants team stinks. They beat the commanders.

They beat the Patriots before they're by. They got six takeaways against the Washington. Is that going to happen again? I don't think so. Not against this Packers team. They had 10 first downs against the Patriots and they still won that game. Come on. This team is second word.

point differential in the entire NFL. It's Tommy DeVito against Jordan Love. I was tempted to go alternate spread on this. I think Packers are going to blow them out in this game. I said, all right, don't get too cute, chill. Six and a half is a nice number. They just got a win by a touchdown. So I've got Packers minus six and a half at MetLife Stadium to beat the Giants as my

favorite lock of the week. Yeah, I like the Giants look a lot. I like the Packers look a lot. I, I, there's so much better than the Giants on paper. They're 10 point favorite over the Giants on paper. They are a very young team that has been experiencing a lot of success and has played some really important games, some high energy games, obviously peaking that you get the, the, division win over the Lions, you get the win over the Chiefs.

And then you have this Giants game and it's just a little smelly. I just say it's a little rat line, you think. Yeah, with such a young team, I'm just so worried about being all, all over Packers minus six and a half. And I'm looking there at the end, at halfway through the second quarter, and it's 13 to 3 giant's because they've muffed a punt and they've had two, three on outs. They have a 70-yard catch and run to Jalen Hyatt. And I'm just there like, but they're better than the giants are, right?

They're a young team. And I, I, their, their, their arrow is up. I'm not taking the game here because I'm just, I'm worried about this look at spot. I'm worried about a little bit of like a, of a, of a done performance from them, just because of the inexperience. I like that it's a Monday night, you know, rather than like a Sunday at one. So Jordan, Jordan lost going to show up on a Monday night. I'm not worried about it.

All right, what is your second lock? What do you got? Yeah, I'm on bills plus one and a half going up against the Chiefs. This was a line that, again, like, there were better lines earlier in the week, but I'm willing to take it for the competition here at this number. I think the bills are, I have a good shot of winning this game. I like the bills over the Chiefs in this game, just straight outright. Defensively, like you said for the Chiefs, they are getting Nick Bolton back.

We talked a lot about how good this Chief's defense has been over the course of the season. they started to experience a little bit of a drop in their play when they lost Bolton. They haven't been the same defense over the last month that we kind of saw them be in the first half of the season. So now Bolton back, okay, it should be a big jump up. Yes, I can see that. I also do think that you've seen that this pass rush really is very Chris Jones reliant, and that's not a Nick Bolton sensation. I think that the bill's, the offensive line, I think he'll be able to handle Chris Jones.

Not really, but Josh Allen can handle Chris Jones. Allen is pretty well equipped to survive and escape a lot of that, that early pressure. That's what he's always done so well. You've seen this Bill's offense, I think, develop a really nice passing repertoire over the last month, month and a half, the end of the Ken Dorsey era, into the Joe Brady era, where they're using Dalton Kincaid more and they're using Khalil Shakir more. And they've just found more weapons, more responses, which is really how you have to beat the chiefs.

Chiefs historically, Steve's Wagonelow is so good at taking away your wide receiver one, right? So this is not your digs game. It's your Shakir game and it's your Kincaid game. And I think you have nice matchups there, especially with Kincaid working over the middle of the field. The lack of Brian Cook as well, this team really relies on versatile safeties. They're putting Mike Edwards out there. He's played well for them, but I don't think he gives you the range that Cook does. I think it'll be a game for some big shot plays as well. Gabe Davis game in the books. I think that it's all about the bills, alternate receivers.

I think they have nice matchups against the Chiefs. I think it's going to be quite a lot of points. I like the bills in a shootout, especially if there's no Pacheco. All right, this, I don't know how often this has happened, but we're on opposite sides, baby. Let's go. For this game, I like the bills early in the week when it was minus three. I kind of like the bills there. That line moved down to minus one and a half. And I said, you know what? Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reed coming off a loss in a game they need.

I mean, this team is eight and four right now. Are they going to go eight and five this season and lose this football game? Mahomes typically very good when lines are around this range when he's favored by three or fewer. I was about to go find the stat in case you didn't have it. And I've already got it. Yeah, they're 12 and 6. against the spread when they're three point or under favorite. So they've typically been good in this spot.

Like I said, they need this game. They're coming off a loss. Again, I like that Bill's team. The bills need to win one of the next tip. So they need to win this one or next week against Dallas to really be in this thing and say, all right, we win our last three. We have a chance to make the playoffs. It could be this one.

Listen, it wouldn't shock me. I mean, I said Josh Allen can put the team on his back. It's just, I'm probably being too affected by the vibes. with this Bill's team where like if I just looked at the data, I would be like, yeah, no, I think I like them in this spot. But my goodness, it has just felt like seven different seasons for that Bill's team this week. Just more stuff happening for them. So I like the Chiefs in the, it might not always look pretty.

It might not be a great win. I don't think they're going to blow them out. I think we're going to get a good game. I think their defense is going to have trouble. But I think their offense is going to do just enough. And the Chiefs are going to win this game and cover the one and a half. So there you go. You said you didn't know how often the disagreement has happened.

Obviously, Luke's tracking it. It's in the spreadsheet. Okay, what do we got? We disagreed once. It was in week six. I took the Falcons at home against the commanders minus two and a half. It's always the Falcons! I literally just took the Falcons minus two and a half at home.

So lovely against the commanders. You took the commanders plus two and a half. They won that game outright. This, for those playing at home, was the three interception in the second half by Deson Ritter game. The only game in commanders' six. entire season in which the opposing passing offense couldn't get off the ground was this game. Oh, what a frustrating game that was.

So what you're saying is I'm undefeated when we take opposite sides this year. You are batting 100% on locks of the week exclusively when we disagree. This is where your edge is. It's just fading me. So yeah, Bill, oh man, an Opo on Bill's Chiefs. That game was already going to be fun to watch. Now the big swings, I can't wait. Yeah, yeah.

So we've got Apo on Bill's Chiefs. We've got Ferguson and C.D. Lamb. But like you said, we could both win those in Cowboys Eagles. All right, what do you have for your third lock of the week? I have a couple that I'm poking around on. I have Bears plus three previously discussed. I have Bengals minus one and a half at home against the Colts. And then the one that I think I want to take is Seahawks plus 10 and a half on the road against the Niners.

You want to go a little opo? Because I'm on the other side of that bad boy. We're doing it. We're absolutely doing it. Let's do it. Let's do it for the content. All right, give me the case for the Seahawks. This game, the second game that the Seahawks and the Niners have played has not been a double-digit game in each of the last, or in five of the last six outings, it hasn't been a double-digit game.

It is very, very hard to beat a division rival by multiple scores late in the season. It just doesn't happen very much, especially when both of those teams are actual legit teams. The Seahawks certainly, you know, edge of the NFC playoff race. It's not like they're squarely in it or whatever, but this is an important game for them for their division record, their conference record. they're coming off of a tough emotional close loss against the Cowboys, but it is a long week of rest for them. They get a Niners team that is coming off of what was functionally their Super Bowl, right? Like, we know how much that Eagles game mattered to the Niners.

Certainly, they won it in emphatic fashion. But I don't think the fact that the Seahawks offense, like when they have enough health along the offensive line and then all three receivers available has been one of the more reliable passing offenses in the league. They're so bad on third downs. They can just stay out of third down. They can just stay ahead of the sticks.

And they have the potential of getting Kenneth Walker. back this week, they'll help them do so. They're really an offense that can go toe for toe. They can go stride for stride. Yes, their most recent performances against the 49ers defense have not been as inspiring. I understand that. But this is a desperate team, and it is an offense that's right now about as healthy as it's been.

They're going to have Kenneth Walker. They're going to have Charles Cross on the outside. Cross, by the way, playing great ball back from injury. Charles Cross is so freaking good a left tackle. I think they have a better chance than I think you do to neutralize that pass rush a little bit to give Gino a little bit more time. I know they, they had bad performances late against Dallas, but for three and a half quarters, that Dallas pass rush was not having the, oh, dominant move Gino off his spot. We're winning the game performance. Like, this offensive line is, is in my opinion,

steadier now, more reliable now than it was to start the season. I think that that 10 and a half is just disrespectfully large for a team that has as big of an offensive weaponry, it's big of an offensive firehouse as the Cs do. So I like them plus 10 and a half. you make a strong case. I really don't disagree with any. I usually am on that when the divisional opponent, second time they meet and the line is this big. I usually am like, just take the dog.

Weird stuff happens. These teams know each other really well. I just think this 49ers offense is a juggernaut. I mean, I'm probably being influenced from, you know, going through that film this week against the Eagles. But I just, I mean, I watched that Seahawks defense against the Cowboys last Thursday night

where they can't get a stop the entire game. I mean, they're not forcing the Cowboys to punt the entire game. And I'm saying, why would I believe that they could stop this 49ers offense that has answer after answer after answer? I mean, talk about being healthy. They are healthy right now. They've got McCaffrey and Debo and Iuk and Kittle and Trent Williams is in there. And Brock Purdy's not, you know, he didn't really give the Eagles a lot of opportunities to take the ball away last week. And Kyle Shanahan takes, what, one or two possessions maybe?

then after that, okay, I know what you're doing. I'm going to push all the right button. So these two teams have played each other so much four times in the last two seasons. 49ers have won those games by an average margin of 16 points. They've just been blowing the Seahawks out. They blew them out a few weeks ago on Thanksgiving. So I am a little nervous. What makes me nervous in this game?

It's not anything. Listen, if the 49ers offense doesn't play well, it's going to be because they have a couple turnovers. That Seahawks defense is not consistently stopping this 49ers offense. I will be shocked if we're talking about more than like two punts in that game for the Niners. Now, could there be an interception, a fumble? Yes, obviously that stuff is possible. Other side of the ball, that's why I get a little nervous that, yes, I think that the Seahawks have the ceiling, the upside where if they can block them up, they can make plays in the passing game and keep this game relatively competitive.

I mean, 10 and that. They could be down by 17 and get a garbage time. We're 100% getting a 14 point deficit late in the fourth quarter. Yeah. And the 90s are playing pre-ven and Gino's walking it down the field. They're going to get to like a fourth down. I'm like, oh, you have to go score seven points.

They're going to think about score three for some reason. Who knows? It'll be 11. That's what it will be. It'll be 11 because they have to score 3, make it 8, all that nonsense. We're very dumb, by the way, because we need to get our average up for locks of the week. And by going opposite each other twice, we guarantee. It's good for content. It's way better. It's way better to do this. With the best we're doing on locks

of the week, you and I is four for six. Math out, we didn't even take lines that can push. These are lines that are going to win or lose. There you go. It's going to be a fun week. Seahawks, Niners and Bill's Chiefs on opposite sides. That's fun stuff, man. That'll be fun. And that's probably late afternoon keep. So you got to get the double green going. All right. So I liked your other. Well, by the way, the other ones you mentioned were sides that I am on in my picks column. on the ringer Bengals minus one and a half. I'll be watching Bears for plus three and a half all week long. Yeah, wait till it gets up there for sure.

All right, give us your recap. What do you have? What are all the picks this week? Yes, I like CD Lambda. I have over seven and a half catches and DJ Moore to have at least 90 receiving yards. That one is my long shot. For locks of the week, I have the Falcons minus two and a half at home against the bucks. I have the bills plus one and a half on the road against the Chiefs,

and I'm taking the Seahawks plus 10 and a half on the road against those Niners. There you go. I've got Gino Smith. under 245.5 passing yards as my prop. I've got Jake Ferguson, Cowboys tight end, 60 plus receiving yards as my long shot of the week. That is plus 164. And then locks of the week, Packers, minus six and a half at the Giants.

That's the one I like the most, no doubt about it. But then I've got the opposite side of Benny Souls. I've got Chiefs minus one and a half at home against the bills and 49ers minus 10.5 at home against the sea of hawks. Seahawks. As I say it out loud, it's even making me nervous. 10 and a half shield against Pete Carroll's team back against the wall. I don't know if you like that. I don't know if that's good. But you know what? That's what I settled on. So I'm going to stick with it.

All right. That'll do it. This episode of Extra Point Taken. Thank you to Benjamin Solek. Thank you to Cliff Augustine for producing. Thank you to Eduardo Ocampo for his wonderful video production. Additional production supervision by Connor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgopal. Next up, Nora and Stephen on dual threat. Sunday night recapping all of the week 14 games. Be sure to check that out.

And then Solac and I will be back for a little double dip on Monday night football, recapping those games and offering our other takeaways from week 14. Thanks to everyone for listening. Have a great weekend. We'll talk to you next week on extra points. Must be 21 plus and present in select states. Fandwell is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC. Gambling problem?

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