The Ringer NFL Show - NFL Week 15 Picks, Props, and Predictions! | Extra Point Taken

Episode Date: December 15, 2023

The Week 15 action kicked off with the Chargers suffering a 42-point blowout loss to the Raiders. Ben has a take about the Chargers he wishes he could completely erase. Could Lamar Jackson be the MVP again? Sheil thinks his case isn't being talked about enough. Plus, props, locks, and nonsense predictions of the week! The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please check out theringer.com/RG to find out more, or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Sheil Kapadia and Ben Solak Producer: Cliff Augustin Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Musical Elements: Devon Renaldo Social: Eduardo Ocampo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The ringer gambling feat is your one-stop shop for all things betting throughout the NFL season, from week one all the way through Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas. We have you covered every which way. We've got our favorite futures. We've got props. We'll discuss the lines. And, of course, we'll throw in a few parlets. That's a given.

So whether you're a sharp or square better, we'll be breaking it down in terms. Hopefully, everybody can understand. And we'll try to win some money along the way. So be sure to subscribe to the ring of gambling feed on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Extra Point Take It. Gechia Coddy here, joined by Ben Solac. Week 15, no more by. 16 games we had the Raiders hanging 63 on the Chargers.

Last night, we get three games on Saturday, 11 on Sunday, Eagle Seahawks, Monday night. Benny Souls. How long did you hang? You hung in there probably till the end, because I know you had props on that game. Quinn Johnston anytime touchdown score or better. I loved it in that game. I was dialed in all the way through. Got the rookie activated.

Couldn't get us receiving yards over, but got the touchdown. Shil, if you could eliminate from the national memory, one take of yours over the last like five years of football, do you have, like, is there one that comes to mind? Because for me,

without question, I would eliminate my Brandon's Daily Faith from everyone's memory, from all podcasts, any articles. When he got the job, I was like, I was changing defense, revolutionary. This guy's going to be him and Justin Herbert's perfect pairing. Like, all of it, I would get it out of the world,

so no one could ever find it. That would be mine. I don't know if you have one, but I'm so harrowed to have been associated with what we saw last night. Terrifying stuff. Yeah, mine would easily be that I think this was within the last five years, right?

Yeah, Eagles were justified in Jalen Rieger over Justin Jefferson. And that one has not, you know, Jalen Rigger was the right pick over Justin Jefferson. That one, I would like to just, I don't even, I feel bad saying it. I thought maybe some people forgot about it. But yeah, that would be mine. Listen, it's a good reminder that when new coaches come in and their first years and press conferences and you like what they're saying and maybe don't get duped. But at the same time, you know what? We talk into a mic a lot of minutes every week.

And so we give our takes at that moment in time, I think it's okay to have horrible. take sometimes and then you come back five years later and you make fun of yourself that's all right it was never it was never the like the press conferences for me it was always like film wise i was like this guy's just yeah doing it coached a great rams defense before yeah and and the lesson there is just if the guy coaches the team with jalen ramsie and erin donald the next team he coaches is just probably going to be a little bit worse like oh joey boza calil mac oh derwin james nope it's still it's just it's just not going to be as good. You know what?

It really is hard when a coach or even like, like when something is surrounded by talent, it's kind of like part of the Brock Purdy discussion. Now those are kind of the hardest pieces of analysis, in my opinion, because you're like, oh, look at the situation. Is it the guy? Is it the pieces around him?

That kind of thing. And you could be right or wrong either way. So you just got to look at it, go with what you feel, be honest, and go from there. All right, that's enough. I know, listen, And everyone's piling on Brandon Staley last night this morning. I understand it's probably, you know, when you give up 63 to a team that got shut out the week before, you probably deserve it.

We're going to have a lot of time to talk about what that organization should do, where they're going to go from here. I don't think we need to spend much more time on it. While you were asleep and I was faithfully watching Thursday night football, I had a someone send me on Twitter. Maybe an expat. I don't know. But they sent me on Twitter a tweet from some person I didn't know that just read. The only nice thing about the Brandon Staley era on Twitter is now we know what it looks like if Ben Solac were to coach an NFL team.

And that was a banger dude. The high laugh was so funny. So I had a good evening with that one. That one made me happy. I did see you retweet that one. That one was good. Shout out to whoever with that tweet out. All right.

We're talking week 15. We're going to have our locks. We're going to have our props. We're going to have our long shots. We're going to have an update on the contest. But as always, we start with. The headliners. What do we got, So lack, what game, what player, what matchup has your attention as we look ahead

to this weekend slate? Yeah, there's a couple of them, but for me, it's Cowboys, Bills. I think this is the game that interests me the most. Yeah, and I think we can get some thoughts on Ravens, Jaguars, thoughts on Eagles, Seahawks, Broncos, Lions. There's some important games this week for sure. Bill's Cowboys actually really interesting to me. I didn't realize this when I was, before I was, I was journey to prep.

for the game. Since week six, we're going since week six, obviously there's been a lot of changes for the bills, but in particular, I'm in the post-Mat Milano world here. That's why I've got to pick that number.

Since week six, by offensive success rate, Cowboys are second in the league, bills are third in the league. By defensive success rate, She-on, this is the one that really surprised me. Cowboys are 17th in the league. Bills are 18.

Over a recent stretch of time, oh, it feels like these two teams might be a little bit similar. And then you go and you get actually into the nitty gritty of that defensive success rate, the Cowboys are bad against the run. The bills are bad against the past. Since week six, no Tradavius White, no Matt Milano. This bill's defense is fifth worst in the league right now and pass rate surrendered defensively.

This is one of the weakest past defensively. Now, they've traded for Rasul Douglas. Over that time, they've got a little bit healthier along the defensive line. Like, Vaughn Miller's playing more snaps for them. And so theoretically, like they might be improving defensively. we look at the way they defend the past. I don't watch it and see that. I see a team that's really, really, really reliable in the passing game.

And they're playing out at home, seven and six, backs against the wall, AFC wild card race, doors cracked open. It's not shut, some light coming through, but it's certainly not wide open for them. And they get like a red hot Dallas Cowboys team that is trying to keep pace over the Philadelphia Eagles and the NFC East. Remember, despite the fact that the Cowboys beat the Eagles, the Eagles retain control over the NFC East.

If the Eagles went out, the Eagles win the division. So the Cowboys cannot drop the game, right? They need to stay pace for pace. So this is you expected a really impassioned Bill's performance against the Chiefs. I think you've got that. But now you go up against a Dallas team that has actual legitimate offensive firepower that has a passing attack that can put it on you through CD Lamb, through Jake Ferguson, through Brandon Cooks, to the back.

Like they have a variety of weapons. Like, I thought it was going to be a big CD land game against the Eagles. They didn't even need CD and they still put 30 points up, right? like this is a fully fledged unit. There's an MVP candidate and Dak Prescott, and they need their MVP candidate and Josh Allen. If you're able to go toe for toe for him, defensively, I don't see how they get any stops.

So this is a game where I think the bills are going to give up a ton of points, you're going to see a ton of points scored, and it's going to be about the bills and Joe Brady, what he's done new for this offense, Khalil Shapir, Dalton Kincaid, James Cook, who had a great game, some of these young guys that have emerged with those offices. It's about them keeping pace with what Dallas can do offensively.

Yeah, if you look at the nerd numbers, it's about all the heavyweights. If you look at the records, you wouldn't say that because the bills like you mentioned are still fighting for their playoff lives but there are five teams in the NFL with the point differential of plus 100 or better and two of them are playing in this game. I think your point about the Cowboys is a good one. Like right now if you go to ESPN standings, you will see them in first place. But to your point, if both they and the Eagles win out, the Eagles get that our first place in the NFC East,

meaning the Cowboys would drop down all the way to five and you would have to play on the road in the first round. And I think that's a big deal. This Cowboys team at home, now, it's always a small sample with football, so I don't want to get carried away. But they are 7 and 0 with a plus 171 point differential at home. I look this up this morning. The best home point differential of any team in the last 10 years. Now, they have one game remaining. So if they lose to the Lions, they might not be.

But as of this moment, if they win that game, it's going to be the best home point differential for any team of the last 10 years. So if they can get up there, see that two seed, I mean, even. if they don't get the one seed and the Niners take that. If you get that two seed, now you're talking about two home playoff games and then just one on the road in the NFC championship. So while it might not feel like, oh, you know, the Cowboys like really need this game, like, no, no, this is a big deal for them to get that two seed to win the NFCE. So you've got that with Dallas.

And then you mentioned it with Buffalo. They're all the way up, Ben, to 49% according to the New York Times playoff simulator. because last week, everything went their way. Not only them beating the Chiefs, but everything else in the IFC went their way. So they're all the way up to 49% here. And this is actually interesting. Even if they lose this game and win their last three,

they have an 83% chance of getting in. So it was like they either needed to beat the Chiefs or beat the Cowboys. Now, having said that, obviously you want to increase your margin for error down the stretch and you want to win this game. And more importantly, as you Ben Solek pointed out on Monday, which I didn't realize, the division is in play. You look at like the range of outcomes for this Bills team, they can finish two, three, four, five, six, seven,

or out of the playoffs. All of those things are still in play as we enter the final month of the season. So you mentioned it with the run defense, with the Cowboys. I think that's a big thing to watch in this game because they lost Jonathan Hankins. I think he's out for this game. Their first round pick, Mazzie Smith has not played well for them this season. They've already been a little vulnerable against the run. run and that Bill's rushing attack. I don't think people realize, sixth in rushing DVOA, when they

want to run the, when they run the football, they have been very efficient this year with James Cook. So that to me is a matchup to keep an eye on. Yeah. And I think that the efficiency of that running game, like, I acknowledge that the offense feels better now that Joe Brady is the offensive coordinator. That's like a real sensation for Bill's fans. I don't want to be like, look, EPA, you're wrong because that's all we did during the Kendora Sierra. That's kind of how I feel. And all right, it's very tempting, but I understand why that's a frustrating thing to hear for Bill's fans, because watching it, it just feels better right now. That's true. The thing that I think is an inarguable and clear improvement from the Brian Dable era into the Ken Dorsey era, and that which remains true now that Joe Brady's EOC, that's Ken Dorsey's lasting impact on the offense is the way that the handoff game is just better.

Just the true run game is better. They're more willing to go under center, their offensive line plays better. It's the second year under new offensive line coach Aaron Cromer, who was brought in from the rave. RAM system. You're starting to see that actually bear some fruit as I think this opposite line. Like Dionne Dawkins is playing some career caliber ball, left tackle. Mitch Morris, who I've got my issue with Mitch Morris. Mitch Morris played, I think, better ball than he has over the last couple of years.

You've seen improved play for this Bill's offensive line. And then James Cook, is James Cook like an elite back? And this is the third time the bills drafted a guy on day two. Is he like, you know, home run? No, but I think like finally they've got what they were looking for in Devon Singletary and Zach Moss. So they can actually trust the guy in all three downs. They can trust him to have a lion's share of the touches.

So design-wise, offensive line play-wise, and investment-wise, this running game actually has some teeth to it. And that's very meaningful. It doesn't feel like it should be because, oh, Josh Allen and whatever. But they can stay ahead of the sticks a lot more reliably. And when they do that, Josh is less prone to the dumbest interception you've ever seen. Still up there, still very possible, but less prone to doing so. James Cook in the past game, too, doing fun stuff with him.

each of the last two weeks. He dropped one against the Eagles before the buy, but then they hit him last week against the Chief. So yeah, they are looking good. They got a shot here. Super Bowl preview. Who knows? You could have that take. I wouldn't, you know, throw you out the door if you had that take. So this is going to be a fun one. Certainly, Dak Prescott now plus 150 to win MVP. I mean, he's got some big time matchups here. Another one here, if he lights up the bills on the road, obviously those odds are only going to increase. Josh Allen is plus 1,400. If they run the table, if he puts the bills on his back, probably can't get there.

But still on my radar. I, as a preseason better on Dijk Price Not for MVP, as an in-season better on Josh Allen for MVP, the only thing that doesn't work for me in this game is three to nothing. I need a quarterback to have a good performance in a win. Either way, we're coming out on top. Who don't you have something on for MVP? I have, you have Lamar. I have Dak Lamar Allen, which I'm very proud of over the course of this season.

I also have Justin Herbert, Termo Lawrence, which is not as good this year to have. But those are the five that I have exposure on. I was very close taking Tari Kill, but I have a lot of Tari Kill, offensive player of the year. So I need him to just continue doing fine, but not amazing. There you go. All right. Those are the, I had the same headliner.

So like you said, we'll talk about some other games here. throughout the show, but that is the one I am most looking forward to this weekend. All right, Monday morning storyline. What do you got, Benjamin? What are we talking about Monday morning after week 15? Yeah, Monday morning storyline, something that I definitely brought the script up for the State Farm reading, so I'm ready to have it, and I'm prepared for it. And I know what's like messages.

Want me to start? How about I start? My Monday morning storyline, because it actually goes off of what we just talked about. I think that the nation is going to start adopting the take that Benny Souls had on Monday night, that, hey, are we sure Lamar Jackson isn't the MVP? I think that campaign could pick up some steam here because we've got a Sunday night fun game. Ravens go to Jacksonville to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. We've said it a million times.

Most seasons, almost every season, the MVP goes to the quarterback of the one or the two seed. now, Ravens, if they have a win here, they will be 11 and 3. They will have at least a two-game lead on everyone except for maybe the Miami Dolphins if the Dolphins win this weekend and beat the Jets. So if you just look at it in very simple terms in the AFC, Lamar Jackson has a great shot. If you go to the NFC, it could be Brock Purdy, it could be Dak Prescott. Those are the quarterbacks. If you think the Eagles are going to have a strong month with Jalen Hertz, it could be Jailen Hertz. They could still be the one or the two-seat. But you can really narrow it down that way if you just look at historical precedent.

So I think this is an interesting game. You know, this Jaguars team, you and I, it's funny before the season. We were both like, yeah, we really like this Jaguars team, Super Bowl ceiling. And then it's just been throughout the season and the record's been there. Like if you told me this was their record before the season, I'd be like, oh, baby, we nailed that one. It hasn't passed the eye test for me. We weren't buying into the defense early in the season when the numbers were good, really

middle through middle of the season, when the numbers were good. think that's shown up in a big way. Offensively, it's just been hit or miss. I thought last week not having Christian Kirk showed up in a big way. I mean, they targeted, what was it? Zay Jones got targeted in that game 14 times. At least 8.10 times, yeah. 14 times finishes with five catches for 29 yards.

I mean, that looked ugly. Now, I will say the bright spot for the Jaguars, I thought Trevor Lawrence was moving around well in that game. Like, if I didn't know, I wouldn't have said, oh, this guy's dealing with a major ankle injury. So that's the good news. I still think he has greatness in him. I like Doug Peterson in a spot as an underdog in December. Don't put the spotlight on us. We still have a chance here. I think that's a big game though. And I think if Lamar on Sunday night football with everyone watching can kind of go off on that Jaguar's team and run for 70 and throw for 250 and they put up

28, 35 points, whatever, I think his MVP campaign could pick up some steam here down the stretch. Yeah, I don't feel good about this game for the Ravens. Is this one of your picks or no? No, so I don't think I'm going to take it. This feels to me for the Ravens a lot like a little, the Packers game felt coming into that Giants game. I was like, oh, like teams flying high, teams had some nice win. They've been in charge of stuff. The Ravens this week, okay, Jacksonville team, it's a good team. You should beat this team. This defense is getable. Passing game wise or destroyed it. Who do the Ravens have next week? Niners. Right.

Niners, okay. Yeah. Nineers, Nineers Ravens for week 15. Memory serves. Maybe I'm one week too far ahead. They've got the charger. Oh, no.

They've got the Jaguars, Dolphins. Yeah. It's a nineers. I can't read. Listen, Solac and I are both dealing with sicknesses. This is not going to be a good show. We're going to sound weird. We're going to be coughing.

We're going to have weird voices. All right. We can't even read our schedule on ESPN. Everybody's got to play hurt. Shield. We got to execute. It's execution time. No, it's Cowboys Dolphins.

next week, Niners, Ravens. I was right on this one. You got my head spun around. Well, I was like, wait, next week's Christmas? What? They can't be, because I knew they played on Christmas. No, no, no, yeah, next week is Christmas. So there you guys.

Niners Ravens next week. This feels like a little bit of a look-ahead spot for Baltimore, which is a team that I love John Harbaugh. I think it's a good coached. They're all well-coached team. I do think that they are liable for having, like, nice, nice comfortable leads. We've all see the Ravens win probability percentage.

is, oh, they're up nine against the Jaguars in the fourth quarter. What could go wrong? And then all of a sudden, things are going wrong. Just because the Jaguars do have that Trevor Lawrence elite quarterback explosive play potential to them. So this game does, like, as a big Ravens believer, I think they're going to get the one seat as a big Lamar believer. I do look at this game with like a blitz heavy defense that's opportunistic and creates turnovers and an elite and a near elite quarterback of Trevor Lawrence. And I'm just like, uh, I just just do the job, get the hay in the bar and like have a nice, emphatic clear win because that Rams game ended up being a big win for them.

And I think a marquee win. And they have a Kyle Hamilton injury and they rally as a defense and offensively they score enough points. But they had opportunities to like in the second half actually shut the door. Like they got some good stops defensively. And they couldn't play complimentary football and turn around with a big win offensively. And so I am a little bit squirrelly about the Ravens in this Jaguars game just because, yeah, the Jaguars don't feel 100% like they should. But they're still eight and five, right?

This is still a good unit, a good team overall. They got some punch to them. And it's in Jacksonville. So it's a big game for them. And I think I wouldn't be surprised this is more hotly contested than we expected to be. I have the same feel for it. I pick Jaguars plus three and a half in my column. It's not one of my picks.

I don't, it's never fun to go against the Ravens in like in one of these games because they can just win in so many different ways. I'm with you. Last week, Baltimore, like the overall offensive numbers looked great. And Lamar Jackson was spectacular in that drive in the fourth quarter. The first half of that game, the first, what, two and a half quarters of that game.

Like they were hitting on big plays, but they were not sustaining offense. They were pretty uneven offensively in that game. And the defense, which has been so dominant, you know, credit to Matthew Stafford and that Rams offense, but they didn't look the same there. So yeah, I think that's going to be a competitive game. I'm with you there, but I think if Lamar can play well in a big spot there, maybe his campaign picks up a little bit. All right, what do you got?

What are we talking about Monday morning? Yes. My Monday morning headline, which is probably like a little bit more of, a Sunday morning headline because remember we have some Saturday games this week. Shiel's brought to you by State Farm. The time, some things are better together like tailgating and cornhole, Buffalo wings and blue cheese and bundling your home and auto insurance with a State Farm personal price plan. Now, that's a play you want to make. The personal price plan lets you choose the coverage you need at a price you can afford. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Prices are based on rating

plans that vary by state. Coverage options are selected by the customer. Availantlead of discounts and savings and eligibility vary by state. Shield, my dynamic duo for the week is Jared Gough and a roof. It is Jared Gough and the ability to play indoors. Jared Gough? Who's he going to do with you? Jared Gough and a roof, Sheel. We had last week, Jared Gough against the Chicago Bears in the cold, open air soldier

field. Wasn't the best performance. How does have fumbled, snap? Didn't look as effective. You and I, man, we were looking at this Lions team like a month ago, We sat in their schedule and we said they got all these dome games at home. They had to play in the Superdome all the road. They only have one game left all season with no roof.

And it's this game in Soldier Field. It said, warning from afar, this is coming for you. This season split indoor outdoor. Jared Goff, 7.3 adjusting net yards per attempt indoors. 5.9 outdoors, a whole yard's difference. EPA per drop pack goes from 0.06 to 0.05. goes from 59% to 50, 43% when he is outdoors. He is a substantially worse quarterback outside in the cold.

Why does this matter? Because they're playing the Denver Broncos at home. And the Broncos have been a surprisingly staunch defense recently since they had the terribly embarrassing performance of the dolphins. This has been well documented by a lot of people. Big defensive turnaround. When you go and you look into the numbers, they're actually pretty good against the past.

They hold down explosive pass rates of like bottom 10 in the league over the last eight weeks. I do think they've been living a lot on turn. And the thing that golf has done so well over his time with the Lions, even though he's lost the streak, is generally avoid turnovers, right? He's been able to protect the football fairly well. And again, when you look at home and road splits, or excuse me, indoor and outdoor splits, his interception percentage craters when he's indoors, when he doesn't have to play in the open air. And so this is a protect the football game for golf.

And then if you do so against the Broncos, while their defense is remarkably better than it was, it's still eminently getable, right? They still are just outside the top 10 in success rate against the past. Their bottom five in the success rate against the run over the last eight weeks. So this is going to be a big, again, Jamir Gibbs and David Montgomery game. It's your second dynamic duo. I'll just bring in dynamic duos on top of dynamic duos. This lion's offense has the requisite pieces to be successful against Denver,

even with Denver's defensive improvements. And after that loss to Chicago, it's now really important for Detroit to continue to win ball games. It's really important for them to continue to maintain positioning as best they can in an race that has the 10 and three Eagles, the 10 and three Cowboys, and the 10 and three Niners. Because all of those teams have some challenging games left. Eagles have the Seahawks upcoming. Cowboys that we talked about have the Bills, have the Dolphins. The Niners are going to play the Ravens.

Like there are loseable games ahead. And if you're the Lions, you need every inch towards home field advantage you can get over one of these teams is critical to try to get, right? Lions face the Cowboys later this year. If you can establish positioning on that team, to make sure that they're a wild card team, make sure if you play them, you get to do in your home stadium, that's a lot. is a big, big deal for Jared Gough. You have to secure for Jared Gough, the roof. And so I think

it's a win against the Broncos this week. I like the Lions against the Broncos this Saturday a lot. The primetime game NFL network at 8 o'clock. But I like Jared Goph, the roof, even more when we get into January and the weather really, really starts to get cold. And so Lions, important to continue to win games like this one against Denver. Yeah, they're the three seed right now. So that would mean you host a game in the first round of the playoffs, but you probably go on the road in the second round. Now, if you go in the road in Dallas, those are favorable conditions. If you go on the road to San Francisco or Philadelphia, it might be a little bit different. So those golfs, I'll say, like, the Dallas thing is like, I agree, because they have a dome, but also like you talked about

Dallas's point different. Dallas home field advantage this year has been nuts. So I don't even want to have to deal with that one. Right. Yeah. So they're, I mean, they're in a tough spot. They, they were in a spot where they could have potentially gotten that number two seed, which I think would have been a big deal. Now it's still possible, but it's more unlikely here. So, Yeah, I think this is a big spot for the Lions. It's like, are you that team that down the stretch? You're like, oh, this team is not nearly as good as we thought it was around Halloween with how good they were the first half of the season compared to now. I still believe in their offense.

I think their offense is going to be good. You mentioned it. Outdoor golf has been a thing for a while now. That's not just this year. So I think their offense is good. They still have the skill position players to spread the ball around. They've still got the offensive coordinator in Ben Johnson. I mean, my concern is with that Lions defense, which we've been saying it week after week after week now.

I mean, they have not been a good defense. They are 31st in defensive DVOA since week seven. And so I'm going to talk a little bit more about that Broncos Lions game a little bit later. I believe their offense will bounce back. I have serious questions about that defense not only in this game, but also going forward against the true contenders in the NFC. but I like that. Jared Goff, roof, diner, not Sam LaPorta, not a Montesie, Ross St. Brown, not Jamir Gibbs. It's Jared Goff and the roof. That's a good dynamic duo. Yeah, you know what else is better together, Shil? Say it. No, I don't. I don't. It's home and auto

and with State Farm personal price plan bundling home and auto is just another way to save. It's a pro move when it comes to saving money, letting you call the play so you can choose the coverage that fits your needs at a price you can't afford. Talk to a State Farm agent today to learn how you can bundle and save with a personal price plan like a good neighbor. State Farm is there. Prices are based on rating plans that vary by state. Coverage options are selected by the customer availability. Amount of discounts and savings and eligibility vary by state. There you go. All right. Let's take a break. We'll come back. We will get into our extra point taken contest. See where we are. See what our pigs are for week 15. All right. We are back on extra point taken. Sully.

How are we with Luke's spreadsheet here? Do we have an update? Where are we as we head into the final four weeks of the regular season? And then, of course, the playoffs. The contest continues through the playoffs. Four weeks left, Sheal, and you have the biggest lead on me you've had all season. It is 45 to 41. You have established positioning here with an excellent week.

She'll hit his long shot again, which I'm super not into at this point. I think we need to change the way the point system works with how valuable this long shot is. 3 points won on Jake Ferguson over 60 receiving yards As we documented on Monday He was at 59 and he lost some yards And he got it so it was tough And then Gino Smith under got replaced with the Jared Gough under Jared Gough not under a roof

She'll knew about the dynamic duo One points for that one as well as the Niners covering at home She'll and I went opo, nineer Seahawks We thought at the time that Gino just tweaked his groin and practice Turns out Gino more than tweaked his groin in practice I ended up having to root for Drew Lodagh's to cover. And he was close, man. 10 up. He covered. He covered the adjusted drew lock spread. Couldn't cover the Gino Smith spread. So 10 and a half for the Niners was a loss for me.

I was all, listen, hold on. I got to give you credit for this. You were a stand up guy. You know, I put out the poll. What should we do? Gino's out. And you said, you should make me take the plus 10 and a half. That's what it was at the time. Got to stick with it. So I, you know, in my opinion, in my head, it was like, all right, if we change it and I lose, then I have a built an excuse. I can say so lack you're a fraud. We shouldn't have changed that. But you went ahead and we're a stand-up guy. And I think that's a good precedent we have said here. You know, Luke, who makes the spreadsheet made the good right point, which I think is when we make the locks of the week, those picks, that's like, here's what we know at this moment in time. We're making them

at the same time. Those stay with whatever point spread we have. If we pick a prop that gets voided, like in real life, it would get voided. You don't lose the bet. You get to take that money and make another bet. So I think that's a good precedent we've learned here. forward in case there are any more late injuries in the week. No, I, I, I, when you pick a line, you take the line. And I knew Gino Smith had, would show up on the report. Like, oh, you could show up on the report. That's weird.

Like, I, I brushed it by it. And I, I, uh, I got to take my lumps. I will say, they were covering that spread from most of the game. And I was like, oh, baby. Drew Locke. And then once he got to 12, I was like, right, they're not getting a field goal to get it to nine. We're just going to have to sit here and take it.

Drew Locke, man. What a shame. Anyway, um, I had the Falcons, freaking against the bucks. As per usual, whatever. I, DJ Moore is my long shot. He covered his, he had no targets in the first half shield. No DJ more targets in the first half. My only win on the week was the bills on the road covering against the Chiefs,

another one in which you and I went opo. If not for a Cadarius Tony off sides, I could have laid a goose egg and you could have swept me. Fortunately, that did not happen. So one point on the week for me, five points, chill on the week for you. It is now 45 to 41. You are hitting your long shot of the week, by the way, at 50%. You're hitting your long shot more often than I. I'm hitting a prop bet this season.

It is not a good feeling. Straight against the spread on our locks. I'm at 57%. You are at 38%. We are cumulatively at 47%. Oh my goodness. We told you last week, take Solax locks against the spread, take my prop, take my long shot, and you'll be having a good week.

I mean, that's how it's been. By the way, I went 9, 5, and 2 with my picks on the ringer.com last week, yet I still managed to pick two of the five losers. I told you, I'm a volume shooter. I'm having my best season betting props in three years, personally. 38% here on the show. Hate to see it. This is all that matters.

All right. Prop of the week, dart us off. What do you got? Let's see. Can you get back on track with your props for the show? Yeah, I ignored my first, like, three instincts, right? Like, okay, maybe look at this running back. No, absolutely not.

Like, oh, wide receiver, why does she want against the lines? The court on side? No. I got past. my initial glances, and I landed on just like pure academia with Matthew Stafford over 268.5 passing yards. I was looking at that one. Against the Washington commanders.

Yeah. So here's the thing about the commander's defense. It is bad. It's been bad all season. Their top five in explosive pass rate surrendered so far this year. Their bottom five and just defensive success rate overall, their bottom eight in defensive EPA against the past, extremely bad past defense. We're so with Jack Del Rio, remain so now that Del Rio has been fired in the defensive

the coaching staffs been shuffled around. Matthew Stafford with Puganakua and with Cooper Cup on the field has been by the numbers. One of the most prolific passers we have in the league just by EPA per dropback has been one of the most successful passers independent of which receivers is available.

And then on the eye test, it's not a young man slinging the pill a little bit. Old man slinging the pill a little bit, right? 34-year-old Matthew Stafford, feeling young again. Titting trick shots, throwing from weird platforms. Honored trust in his receivers and critically a ton of trust in his offensive

line. When you lose to this, this Washington team, previously you were losing because of the entire pass rush. Chase Young is gone. Montes Sweat is gone. Now you're really losing to the interior. You're losing to John Allen and to Duran Payne, right? A dynamic duo that I almost had that I passed on is Steve Avia and Kevin Dotson. The two guards for the Rams are playing extremely good football right now. Both of them acquired this past offseason. The Rams pass protection has really been, I think the final bow on top of what's been a really nice resurgence of this passing game over the stretch of the season. So I think they're going to be able to hold up in pass protection, which when you do that and you give Stafford this secondary that he's facing, I think he's going

to be extremely successful. I was looking at completions, 22 and a half. I'm worried he's going to, he's going to too many explosives and it's not going to be close for long enough and whatever. I posit him now, like again, like once I mentioned an alternative way I could have gone, that one always hits. But I'll take over 268 and a half passing yards for Matthew Stafford. I think State Farm's probably happy with your decision. That you didn't go with two guards for the Rams for your, uh, it was my first idea. And then I said, wait a minute. Yeah.

That's only interesting to you, Ben. It's not interesting to others. That's right. That was a good call by you. I like this one. I had it written. Now, what did you say the numbers at now? 268.

268.5. It was lower. When I wrote it down yesterday, it was 265. Oh, I hope he doesn't get 266 here. 267. For content, I wouldn't mind it. No, that, that's, that's, a good one. I mean, you just look at that commander's defense. I mean, 30 second in defensive

DVOA and you look at that, what that, it's so funny how like the narratives could change with the Ravens or like based on how that game ended last week. I mean, Lamar had a great drive down the stretch. Stafford had a great drive down the stretch. And then you get to, uh, overtime and, uh, you know, neither guy scores. And then you get the punt return for the touchdown there. But yeah, that, that Rams offense is been pretty consistent this year. When they've been healthy, when Stafford specifically has been healthy. And when he's had these guys on the field, Cooper Cup looked great last week.

Nicool looked great last week. Kyrin Williams, I mean, Rams come out in that game and what? They run the ball nine times in a row and go right down the field. Like, they are a versatile, well-balanced, can hit you in a number of different ways type off-bed. So I might be, you know, leaning into some RAM stuff here in the future.

Not for this one. I thought about it for this one. I actually have two written down here. I actually have three written down here that I almost took from this Rams' commanders game, but instead, I'm going to be a little bit of a hater here and go with the grouch pick and go to Saturday. You're sitting down Saturday. First game of the weekend.

I'm taking the under for Jake Browning passing yards. 240.5. Big number. That's a big number. Listen, I like what Jake Browning's done, but I think going up against it's Bengals Vikings, so going up against this Vikings defense is just tough. We saw it last week. Raiders did not score.

and then again, they hung 63 on the Chargers the next week. I just think Minnesota is a different animal where they're going to be tough to prepare for their sixth and defensive DVOA. Brian Flores might be my more with less king, the coach of the year. I don't know. I'm going to have to brand that State Farm, if you're interested in that in a future week, let me know. I mean, you just look at that defense. And I'm not saying the player stink. This happens, though.

When the coaching is good, then all of a sudden you're going, ooh, Josh Mattelis. is playing well. Ooh, Ivan Pace, nice play. But these aren't guys we came into the season being like, oh, man, look out for this guy. And now all of a sudden, that's what good coaching is. You're getting more with less. You're getting these guys who do some things well and have potential. You're bringing that out of them.

And Brian Flores has done that as much as any coordinator in the NFL. So I pick the Vikings in this guy. I don't know that they're going to have enough offensively in this game. I did pick them plus three here. but I like this prop better than anything that has to do with the actual spread. That Bengals offense last week, the screen game was fantastic. Again, they did a great job coaching last week. I mean, they're scheming stuff up, and then Browning is making some throws in the second half.

But I just think 240 and a half is a big number. Starting quarterbacks against the Vikings this year, on average, 218.5 passing yards. So I think you're really asking for Browning to get an explosive in the screen game, something downfield, Jamar Chase, to put them over the top. But the Vikings have been pretty good against those kinds of things so far this year. Yeah. The only thing that worries me about this is that Browning is going to get 15 drives because Nick Mould's is going to go three and out on every single position.

Yes, that scared me, 100%. Which the world you're hoping for is just a couple turnovers, a couple short fields, bangles are up, 13 to nothing. We don't have to pass the all the rest of the game, right? And so I think that you have worlds in which your game script here just precludes Browning from ever getting over that number. I looked a lot at this. I looked a lot at just Bengals Vikings under

and kind of building that into some of our long shots to the weekend. I didn't end up going that direction. But this Bengals Vikings game with Browning into Mullins is right for some good Ben. That's a fun Saturday 1 PM game to just turn on and just be like, holy smokes. But I will say Browning, as far as backup quarterbacks go, is we've had some crazy backup quarterback performances and some stretches over the last two years.

This is one where, like, it's both. good, but also it looks legitimate, right? I agree. Yeah, like, I bought the Dobbs cheese. He's obviously been benched now. He's the third stringer. Dobbs was making like 17-yard throws into the sideline. Like, he was like shooting the ball down the field,

playing a sort of aggressive ball that if he was capable of that regularly, like he should have been a starter. Browning is just playing very much within himself. And Zach Taylor and Brian Gallaghan, man, like, they're good. I don't know what they're good at. I don't, but they're good at offense. Like, they're still there.

I, you look at all. the numbers, you're like, why is this working? How does this work? Maybe it's just elite talent across the board, whatever. But even then, like, they're getting Tanner Hudson and Chase Brown working. Like, Callahan always, every time they get their back up against a wall, Callahan gets find his way to slip them out, man. They just, their offense never, it's always got something up its sleeve. It's always got a little trick play that works. It's got a little constraint play that ends up going big. Like, they're just able to get a lot of juice out of squeezes that that Bengals offense. They're doing the game with Jake Browning. It's impressive to see.

Yeah, Chase Brown. Oh, he's. look good last week. As you would say, young man can scoot, right? As someone, is that not a scoot with the running back? Can only a footer- Oh, no, no, you're making a sco. No, running back can now on a screen, he can fly, right? Once you're in the, once you're open field on you're running, he can fly. Scoot is when you're making guys miss. Yes, he was flying. Yes. As a, as a drafted Chase Brown on every single dynasty team I own investor, it's about dang time. All right, I was feeling real skinny about that. We're now doing a lot better. Yeah, Brown is an important Mixon is at his best when he is a committee back

and getting Brown healthy and activated is nice for the Bengals. Bengals, man, right there in that postseason picture, I'll tell you. Both these teams, I mean, we joke Browning versus Mullins. Both these teams are in the playoff picture. So this is the first time in league history, a team that's currently the sixth seed in the postseason picture has benched their starting quarterback

and made him the third stringer after trading for him at the deadline. The Viking season is unbelievable, man. It is. It really is. Yeah, he's Joshua Dobbs is now the number three, which I didn't really understand that. I'm like, just make him the number two. You know, coaches love to do that.

They love to beg, all right, now he's the number three. As if it makes it feel better, I don't know, like it's a different role or something. Yeah. I do agree with the Browning. It does look sustainable in terms of what he's doing now. I'm not telling you he's going to be a starter and be amazing, but he passes that does this guy know what he's doing test at a very high level? I think the question was like, he knows where to go with the ball and execute. Yeah, the question was like, all right, we,

don't know anything about this cat. Like how can you possibly have had like Joe Burrell's been hurt? How could you have had this guy's the backup? And I guess internally they were like, we feel good about him. And then he's got in the field and he's, he's proving them right. And I think that's the nice thing is that like he was a total unknown of backup. And now it turns out he's actually playing pretty good ball. No doubt. All right. Long shot of the week. What do you got? All right. The Detroit Lions are going to win. The Miami Dolphins are going to win. And the Green Bay Packers are going to win. And those three things. combined are plus 169 in a parley. Lions Broncos, this like I says, the Saturday 8 o'clock game.

I really like the Lions in this spot. I think that you have Dan Campbell against Sean Payne. I think this game matters to him quite a bit. They have the embarrassing loss. They haven't played well over the last couple of weeks. I think this is a circle the wagons moment for them at home in an island game. They understand what this means in terms of retaining positioning in the NFC north, retaining position in the NFC. I think you get a pretty big performance out of them. And I've been looking for spots to fade this Broncos improvement. And I just haven't liked a lot of their opponents at the moment which they've done in them. And so I haven't really had some great windows to do it.

This is a window to me where I think they're going to be successful. I like the Lions to score a lot of points, run the ball really well. I think the Lions win this game. Dolphins are huge favorites against the Zach Wilson Jets. As a weirdly sudden Zach Wilson defender because of the way this podcast breaks my brain, I certainly loved the performance he had against the Texans last week. I'm not buying that that's a legitimate thing. Dolphins dealing with a ton of injury defensively.

We know that that's still true, but I think that they're still very well-quipped to overwhelm this Jets team with the volume they're able to produce. And with hassling, Zach Wilson's stud, that they can pressure him. And the last one is Packers. Packers are only three and a half-point favorites against the Buccaneers. Very embarrassing performance against the Giants,

and now it's a short week. But they're at home. They're getting a Bucks team that's traveling into some cold weather. I think that environment really, really favors the Packers relative to Baker Mayfield and how he plays for the Bucks. I think that defensively, that was an embarrassing performance for the Packers, but the B aren't equipped to do anything that the Giants did. They don't have a QB running game.

They don't have a diverse running game, period, right? Like, Rashad White has certainly become a high volume player for them, but he's not an entirely threatening player. And then this buck's defense loses to outside receiver play. And that's where the Packers right now, they've been, they've had their peak Christian Watson game and their peak Duntavian Wicks game. They're involving Jaden Reed. Like, they just have so many passing weapons.

And this buck's secondary is weak. And so accordingly, I like the Packers. in that spot as well. Minus 184 Packers, minus 225 lines, minus 480 dolphins, all together is plus 169. That Dolphins team, a lot of big names on that injury report this week.

Wednesday and Thursday, we're recording this Friday morning, did not practice Wednesday and Thursday, Tyreek Hill, Tehran Armstett, Devon A-Chane, they lose their center for the season last week. So, I mean, Hill is obviously the big one.

We talked about that on Monday night. I don't know if he's going to play. or if he's not going to play in this game. But, yeah, they're eight and a half point favor. So you're just asking for a win. You're not asking for a cover there. So I can probably still roll with you there, although it would make me a little bit nervous.

This Jets defense, listen, let's give the Jets defense some love here for a second. I mean, they're playing their best ball of the season. Last week, the Texans, and I know the Texans were injured, they couldn't get a pass to a receiver without a Jets defender being right there. They had 10 passes defended in that game. If you watched that game, it was just like blanket. They were on every single thing the Texans were trying to do. So that would make me a little bit nervous.

The Jets defensive front against that Miami offensive line. And then if Tyree Kill isn't playing, man, those Jets dbs against the dolphins. But yeah, a little sneaky. We'll make me a little nervous, but. Are you, okay, do you like Chiefs minus 420 on the road against Patriots better? Good question. I think I do, but that one has other reasons to make you know. I mean, that's the one to me where I'm like, all right, this is obviously the chiefs are a better team.

But man, nothing feels stinkier. Then we get the official report. They're out on Bill Belichick. They're done with him. Craft is over him. And then Belichick beats Patrick Palms and Andy Reid at home. Like that, that to me, more so than the Dolphins total injury report was like, oh, man, this is so, so sweaty. to be fading Belichick

long week of rest where there was just a report that he's done with the job after they already had a Zappi win. So I was thinking about Chiefs instead. I'm going to stay with the Dolphins. I'm going to stay with my initial gut. But I agree, like the Connor Williams

injury and the Toronto Armstead unavailability, like that's concerning. The Dolphins have been dealing with Offensive Line a musical chair for two months at this point. I think they kind of know what they can and can't do with it. Tarreek, I think, is going to play.

And off of my read, Tyreek being available makes me like this. If you told me Tyreek wasn't playing for sure, I'd probably get on Chiefs and not Dolphins for this. But altogether, I think you're going to see Tyreek, and I think you're to see enough points from them that Zach Wilson can't overcome it. If we got two Zach Wilson good games in a row,

then I get to come back and victory lap that for some reason. Dolphins have been very good at home, specifically, offensively, specifically when they're big favorites at home with Tua, they have performed very well. So there's reason to take them there. All right, my long shot of the week, I'm going for, I hate to even say this because now I'm jicking myself.

I've hit four in a row of these bad boys, these long shots of the week. Unbelievable. Unbelievable. Better than my picks against the spread, which are typically minus 110. Long shots have to be plus 150 or higher. I'm going back to that Rams commanders game.

I didn't take it for the prop. I was saving it for the long shot. We're taking Puka Nakua over 66.5. And the Rams adjusted line of minus 2.5 gets me to pull. plus 153. So there you go. Rams are six and a half point favorites in that game. They just got to win by a field goal for me here.

This was tough, Ben, because I don't know if you have a, like, do you feel better about Cooper Cup going over or Puka and Akua going over that? I was like, I don't know, like 166.5. The other one's like 72 or something. Like, this is the only thing that scares me. If one of them has like 170, which is within the realm of possibilities for both these guys and the other guy doesn't have a. a big game, but ultimately, I ended up going with Puka Nakua.

Yeah, I was looking at the numbers earlier. I can't, I'm trying to pull them up fast. I know that Nukua has been over the course of the season, the best Rams target against his own coverage. And I know that the commanders have typically been a man heavier team. It's not to say Puka's been bad against man, but to say that when he gets his really high volume stuff and his crazy performances, it's typically been against zone coverage opponents and the commanders tend to go more heavy on on man coverage. But with that said,

we're at the point now in the season where Pookas just earned faith period. You don't have to worry about splits as much. I think when the season started, a lot of the Puka explosion was like, Matthew Stafford realizing, oh, this young kid knows where to go and like turns around at the right time and like spaces correctly. And so like zone wise, he was getting that volume. Now I think he's just earned that faith. All together, though, when I landed on Stafford, 268, I started looking at the receivers in Cub and Nekua and decided that I couldn't parse who I liked better in this spot. And so I just went up for the quarterback. I like that were correlated though. My passing over correlated to your long shot. Feels great for me. Should not feel good for you. You should

be worried about that statistically. Me, I'm feeling lovely. I looked at every single thing with this game. I was like, all right, I could do Puka and Cup over. I could do Puka and Stafford over. I could do Stafford adjusted yards. Get them to like 275. There's a lot of things I just feel over. Stafford's going to hit Nakua for three passes, 100 yards, two touchdowns, then get nicked up and leave the game. And then that's how we're going to window this one between you and I. Yeah, we are not done with this Rams commander's team as far as a game as far as picks go. This is apparently a big one for the extra point taken fellas. Yeah, this is a we might not be done with it for both of us. Let's see. I got a few, a few blocks I'm looking at here. All right. Nonsense prediction. What do you

got? Yeah, Cadarius Tony touchdown. I'm so positive. 100% Cadarious Tony scoring. First possession? Maybe not first possession. I think you actually have to make sure you're winning the game first. There are big favorites, like I said, against the Patriots, eight and a half point favorites. For anybody who's wondering at home, by the way, Cadarius Tony is plus 650 to score touchdown,

which I think is quite long for a receiver that they love to use in the red zone. But absolutely, you have to, I'm sure internally you've mayacobo to this. You now have to externally mea cope with this because of how much of Mahomes' frustration was external. I think the best way to do that is just a little design, yo-yo motion

this way, that way, oh, change around the backfield. He just freeing out, nice and easy, Patriots are a man coverage every team, run a rub route, do something basic, get a target of Cadarious Tony at the two-yard line. He dives for the pylon. Mahalms runs up, ah, big celebration, slap on the helmet.

And this is critical. You got to then just jog to the sideline, right? You do the celebration, but you ham it up too much that everybody knows. Like, oh, he's trying to make Tony feel about this on the show and for this, everything, you got to celebrate. So happy for your champ, half week last week, way to recover. And you got to act like that's regular.

And then when they bring you up at the podium, they're like, Cadarius Tony obviously designed Red Zone play. Patrick, was there anything particular like you guys had in the week talking about Tony? You go, oh, no, we don't really talk about that. Like, you know, we just, we love him in the Red Zone. We love his matchup. You got to act like it's all regular. So Cadarius is scoring a touchdown against Patriots.

And then Andy and Mahomes are going to be like, look at how happy our big, happy family is. Go us. We've had that in since training camp. you know, we're just waiting for the right time to call. This happened to be, you know, it's just that's where you go, you go to the open receiver, you know, and he happened to be the right. And if it were I, because I can't help myself and I love to cause trouble, I would be up with that point and being like, we just really feel like he's earned more targets in the red zone.

Like we just, the way that he's played recently, we just like, I mean with a straight face, just like, yeah, just with his play recently, we like his match for the resolution. We feel like he's earned these opportunities, just daring that reporter to be like, he didn't lose any opportunities when he lined up off sides and lost you the game against the bills. But that's just me. I think we'll get, I think if that happens, we'll get also a little. How about one of these? He had a great week of practice.

Great week of practice show. We locked in. Especially in the middle of December before week 15 when you definitely do a lot of things during practice. Yeah, great week of practice for Cadarie Stony. Next year I need to write a call up like how you know your team is in trouble. It's great week of practice. It's players only meeting.

There are a few others I'm sure I can come up with. Honestly, after this sickopod between you and I where our germs are coming up across the bike. When we come back next week and healthy, shield, it'll have been a good week of practice. You and I, good week of practice. Yeah, this week I don't know about. Next week, we can practice. All right. My nonsense prediction, we're going to get some kind of incident in New Orleans. Teammates having to be separated on the sideline,

a bite in the locker, you know, media saying, media, media saying we haven't been let in yet. We're hearing like someone's shouting F bombs in there. It sounds like something might have just been thrown in there. The Saints host the Giants. they are six and seven, they're tied for the best record in the NFC South. If you were to have told me before the season that the Saints are going to be six and seven going into week 15, that they're going to be in the mix for the NFC South, I would have said, okay, this is kind of what I expected from the Saints season.

But how they've gotten here, like we haven't talked a lot about, I feel like we talk more about the Saints in the off season with the weird stuff they do than in season. This has been like a miserable experience if you are a Saints. The Saints fans hate this team. At least this is my read. If you're a listener and you're saying, no, no, I'm a Saints fan. This hasn't been that bad.

Fine. I think most Saints fans have hated this season. When we were talking in the offseason about, you know, what the Saints were doing, I was like, well, you know, sometimes you just make a move and you have a fun. If you have a fun season and you go nine and eight, then like there's some value in that. That has not been what this has been. This has been Derek Carr last week getting into it with Center. Eric McCoy, shouting match.

Earlier this season, Derek Carr and yelling at Chris Olave, after Derek Carr threw the ball, like seven feet out of bounds. Derek Carr yelling at Pete Carr, Michael. This has been a Saints fan base that is just like, oh my gosh, this is not fun. They're winning games and you're still hating the experience. Like that's the ultimate test for how miserable a team is. So I don't know who's going to win this game. Saints are minus six, which I thought was a little high.

I took the Giants. I wanted to fade the Tommy DeVito stuff this week, but I was like six points. Six is a lot. That's a lot for the Saints team. So I took the Giants plus six, didn't feel great about it, not going to be one of my picks. But I do feel like this is a situation. If Cutlets goes down to New Orleans, you know, maybe goes outside of his comfort zone a little bit and tries the great, you know, New Orleans cuisine down there has a monster game here. And they win and the Saints lose this game.

I feel like something's going to happen. It just feels like something's ready to boil over with the Saints team. I strongly agree. I can't help but feel like you and I have. had some conversation in the off season about me hating the way the Saints manage their team. And you going, but they build a competitive team. This is for the fans. No, no, no. I just said that. I just referenced that. Okay. So you weren't let this is, I'm going to let you get by on your sickness. I didn't say I was making the case. At the end of that conversation, I said, all right,

that was just making the argument that I don't know what the Saints are doing. Now, I did make the case that, yes, sometimes you, you can build a team that's competitive and fun. And it's not about winning a championship. And that's okay. That's not what, what this is. This team is miserable. So, yeah, that was my point. Right. But no, I heard your point. Nowhere in your point did you say, I said last season that this was building a good competitive team,

which I'm like, 93% sure you did. And I was like, no, Derek Carr is mad and this would be a bad environment. I was saying that was the case. I did not say, I think that's what they're. I picked the Panthers to win the NFC South. Okay. No, I shouldn't, I should not be admitting that. Okay.

To remind, to find the episode where she and I 100% have this conversation. The problem is, I don't have a good memory for these things. And so I can't, you're always, you're so good. This is a compliment. You're so good at being like Ben, seven months ago you said this about the Ravens. I'm like, gosh, shoot, I did. But I can never remember.

I've bad memories for these things. I can't recall. But this is, to me, this is what I, this is what I expected from the Saints this season. They don't have the infrastructure because of the talent that they've lost to continue winning games with the way that they have. And so it's on the quarterback to elevate. And Derek Carr is not an elevator, right? We've had this whole game manager, game changer discourse this week,

because Cam Newton got on his podcast and was like, Dak is bad. I haven't listened to any of the clips. I don't know what's going on. I was going to say, I always enjoy when you break up something like, this has been going on this week,

and I'm like, I have no idea what you're talking about. That happens often. I did not engage with it, but Cam Newton hopped on his podcast and was basically like, the league is 12 game managing quarterbacks weren't as good as me. And then talk shows talked about it a lot and got upset with it.

And then Cam issued like a correction, like a nine minute monologue. I never watched these. things. I just see how people kind of go back and forth one another. But all of this to say, Derek Carr is the game manager. Derek Carr is the guy who just like sits back there and is just like dumping it off to Alvin Kamara, like solve problems for me, right? Throwing the ball at Rashid's feet and then getting mad at him that he didn't catch it. Like he's not an elevator. And this saint's team is not good enough roster-wise. It was good enough five years ago. It's not good enough

now to exist without an elevator at quarterback. And so the car contract, it was a failed endeavor from the start to me and this is just the fruit of that. I don't even know if he's a game manager. He has stunk this year. This is worse than any version we've seen with the Raiders, I think, this version of Derrick but you're probably right. Part of that has to do with just what can the supporting cast give you with a quarterback like that.

All right, let's take one more break. We come back. We got locks of the week. I have, let's see, five on my screen. No, four on my screen. I love this week, which is bad for week 15. You're not supposed to love a week in week 15. I'm worried.

All right, we'll come back. We'll hear what games Stolek loves. All right, let's get to it. Locks of the week. What's your first one? You love it. What game do you love the most here? Yeah, I'll start with the obvious one,

given the way I've been talking about the game. I have Rams minus six and a half against the commanders. I really like this line. Rams are at home. I've been the last couple of weeks, and I usually am like, oh, this team's hot, find the fade opportunity. this Rams offense matches up so nicely against the commander's defense.

It just has no teeth since they've traded away. Chase Yonge Montez-Swet. Lead the league right now. An explosive pass rate surrendered. The commander's defense does. Just no team is worse, giving up the big play. Rams, one of the top five teams in the league right now in the big play offensively through the air.

There's just going to be, I think, firework for the Rams. Their team total is at 29 and a half points. It is an enormous figure entering this game. What you're worried about is you're worried about the Sam Howell Backdoor. You're worried about this being a two-score game the entire way. the Rams set in the game late and Sam Howell's having a good time against this past defense

and then these scores a touchdown they go for two, they get it and they lose by five. I think that's what you're worried about in this one altogether. Really like the Rams spot, really like the Rams' offense against the commander. Six and a half is the line out.

I'm going to take it. One of the ones I was looking at, I don't think I want to take it because it's not as fun. Are you taking the Falcons this week? Let me ask you that before we get to here. Should I take the Falcons this week? What is with this line?

So like, Min is three against Carolina? It's so low. It cannot complete a pass. The Falcons, I know they do, I make fun of you because they just do dumb stuff over and over again. But even I can acknowledge that they should outgain the Panthers by like 250 yards in this game. They just have to win by a field goal. Should I do it?

Should I take the team that Solaxman get, I'm going to think about it. I'm not going to go there yet. Here's what I will say. It's a rat line as JJ. Here's what I will say. the injuries that they've got right now where offensive line yeah so Caleb McGarry Chris Lensstrom both questionable for this game uh defensive tackle was the one that really killed them against the bucks contavia street went down during the game he's out this week David on Yamada's

questionable this week this team's been successful because of their trench play they're losing like they're potentially without four of their five best trench players going into this game right and like that's that's where I get worried about them absolutely they should be more than three point favorites even on the road against the Panthers. I think they're going to cover. But I need to stop picking them against the spread on the show. So that way they actually do cover. So that way they win. So how they win the division? I'm playing the long game, Sheel. They've been terrible against the spread under Arthur Smith. I forget what the numbers are. But yes. I think I'm three and four taking them this year, which means I've taken them seven times, which is just sicko behavior.

That's crazy. All right. Let me go with the game that I like the most here first. And then I'm going to I'm going to marinate a little bit and decide on the final two. Game I like the most is one. you mentioned earlier, that's the Green Bay Packers, minus three and a half at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I took the Packers last week, bad call. You had the right read. That was an inexperienced game, or as Donovan McNabb said back in the day, that led to me as a kid listening to Sports Talk Radio.

We showed our youth. Oh, boy, that was very controversial at the time for Donovan McNabb to say that after a loss. Some of these things just stick in your head as a young sports fan. You remember, wow, that was like a week of Sports Talk radio content. when Donovan McNabb said we showed our youth after loss. They showed their youth after that loss. That's okay. Jordan Love was off in the first half.

They had three turnovers. They still had a chance to win. You know, again, as I said on the Monday show, there's a narrative where we can talk about, hey, they didn't have their best game. They still had a nice drive at the end, but then their defense didn't show up. So I still like this Packers team quite a bit.

The Bucks, I mean, bucks against Atlanta last week, got out gained by 144 yards. They really did not play well in that game. Every single game the Falcon should cover, dude, it's so annoying. It's so irritating. As I wrote in my column this week, really been one of the joys in my season is to watch this Falcons team torture you on the, you know, every time I'm sitting here going, well, I think So like's going to get it this week and then they do three stupid things and they don't

cover. That's been fun. That's been, you know, we're doing this thing for the ringer choosing our favorite sports moments of 2023. I might have to choose something, Falcons, relations. Just the Falcons. Ben picking the Falcons. That really might be mine.

But this game, Tampa banged up, Carlton Davis, Chris Godwin, Vita Vaya, all mispracticed Wednesday and Thursday. Did you know So lack that the Tampa Bay Bucks in that game, Bison's touchdown run, that the Bucks had nine players on the field? Yeah, I saw that screenshot. There's nothing Todd Bulls loves more than not knowing how to get all the players on the field. But a lot of times it's 10, nine on a touchdown. I was thinking in a bigger market.

your team is fighting for a playoff spot and the division and you have nine players on the field for a touchdown run? Oh my God, think about it. So if you're a fan of like a, like you would be going, that's all you'd be talking about this week, even if the team won the game. So anyway, I like the Packers at home, bounce back against this Bucks team that is not very good.

They're mediocre. They're okay. They're not bad. I could see the Bucks moving the football a little bit, but I think the Packers offense is going to get back on track. I thought about taking them a little adjusted line. with my long shot and I said just settle down shield just take them minus three and a half at home against Tampa that's my first pick yeah I mean like the bucks had nine players on defense and covered

as an hour one is an outright dog so I don't even know like it's it's so deflating man there's just no reason for it to be this hard uh I do like Packers minus three and a half a lot that's the side I would be on I have exposure to them on the money line uh you don't get the hook on that one which to me worries me a little bit just in the script of that game the bucks have been a um A team that when they get into the second half and Baker has to throw the ball and they're behind, they do a gnarly little job of weasling their way back in the back door. And that does worry me on this one. So I don't have the Packers in these three.

But like I said, I have Packers exposure on the money line. I do like that side. Overall, I think it's a good pick. Second for me, I promised myself when we started this show, if the Bears went from plus two and a half to plus three against the Browns, I was going to take them. They went plus three against the Browns. I'm going to take them, right? So just talk about getting the hook there.

I get the plus three. I'm not sure why this moved. I'm worried that I'm doing this, and then all of a sudden I'm going to find out in two hours that Justin Fields tripped over somebody at practice and strained his groin. And now I'm doing a Tyson-Bajun thing for a second week in a row.

I'm going with the backup. But all together, I think that the Bears, I like their match for into the Browns quite a bit, actually. Talked about Justin Fields on Monday's show playing a little bit more risk-averse football. Well, betting, it's the Brown's defense, right? This defense really gets after you. Like, it's going to be worrisome stuff.

I agree, but I think the Bears can be able to run the ball. I think the Bears run approach on offense has been a lot more successful over the last two months of the season, Tyson-Bajia and then into Justin Fields. And against a hyper-aggressive four-down-front, you can get your double teams. And like we've seen in the Lamar Jackson games against the Cleveland Browns and against Jim Schwartz, quarterback can really challenge the structure of defense, right? Your whole point is being gapped out. Your whole point is having a body for every single guy. Once you involve the quarterback in the running game, you start going heavy personnel, you really limit the coverage menus the opposing team gets. and then you get Justin Fields one-on-one with space and linebackers,

and that's always a good match to have. You always like that. So I think the Bears are going to run the ball really well. And then I think defensively where the Bears have just been steadily improving week over week. We've talked about this on the show a month ago, like, oh, like, this Bears seem like they're just, they're coalescing. They're coming together. It's too little too late, but they are.

Like, it is happening. Fit nicely and putting the Browns into some clear long and late situations and really putting, I think, a stress on Joe Flacko to throw the ball and be successful winning through the air that he hasn't really had to go up against. Like the only time you ever saw it was once the game got out of hand against the Rams. And obviously that kind of blew up in the face late in the fourth quarter there. And so I do think it's a nice spot for the Bears matchup-wise, run the football, control game clock against the Browns who are at home and are in playoff position.

That's an important game for the Browns. But the Bears are well positioned to play spoiler in this one. I like them plus three. Imagine if before the season I would have told you Joe Flacco is going to be a three-point favorite for a playoff team on December 15. Disgusting. What a weird season. What's very irritating is the fact that getting the hook and getting plus three doesn't

actually do anything for us in this competition. In this contest, yeah. The push doesn't stop losing points anyway. I just don't feel like I'm supposed to do it and I just do it off of instinct. And then I'm like, oh, wait, this doesn't actually matter. But anyway, bear's going to win out right. Listen, do you want to do something where we could say, if you get a push, you like get to bank that and you get an extra pick the next week?

I would be open to a conversation like that or does it get too confusing or do you have to do that before the season? You probably have to do that before the season because I think I've pushed this year and you haven't. And so I'm entirely self-interested in this conversation. No, I'd rather the Bears push and I get to whine about it. That to me is optimal. It's just I don't get the point and I get to complain. That seems ideal. There you go. All right. So I do like the bear side on that. It's not one of my picks. Brown's injuries, DeWan Jones, another tackle out for the season. They've been they've done such a good job with their offensive line depth that you haven't noticed it that much.

But man, they have been banged up there. And then Grant Delpit safety playing at a very high level for them. He's out for the season. So I think you nailed it with that Bears defense. I mean, that's a bit, if you're a Bears fan, all right, we've had the fields quarterback conversation a lot. But you wanted to see what Zebra Fluse bringing to the table with this defense? Because they sucked last year. This year, you invested a lot of resources in there.

And now finally, you're saying these are young players, which is very encouraging. You're seeing young players play better on that bear's defense. They've been playing at a much higher level. So yeah, I like the Bears plus three in that game as well. Yeah. The Grand Delpit injury, like impact on the game, notwithstanding, there's nothing that sucks more than good young player has best season of his career cut short. Like Delpit earned like a nice, heavy feature at a playoff game where like the broadcasts

was like, you know what's out of their mind right now? Grand Delpit. He doesn't have the best season of your grand Delpit. And he doesn't get that. Like, he won't get that big national moment. That stinks. So he's not a national name. but Delbert's been playing by far the best ball of his career.

Losing the season for him sucks. I hate to see it. Although, you know, I'm team CTC, and at least he was able to CTC. Nothing worse than getting the injury before you CTC. Absolutely. You got the extension right in under the window. I'm not saying it doesn't suck.

I'm not saying the rehab process is grueling for professional athletes. It is a little bit better when, you know, that money's coming into the bank account. That's all I'll say. All right. I'm going with a square pick here, So let. I'm going with the 49ers minus 12 and a half.

at Arizona. I just think this Niners team is like we're still not realizing what an offensive juggernaut they are. I was looking up earlier this week. Top 10 off offensive performances this season by success rate. Five by the 49ers. Five by the rest of the entire NFL. When these two teams played earlier this season, it was the best offensive performance by success rate for any team in a game this season. They are healthy on offense. They cannot be stopped when they are healthy. This Cardinals defense stinks. They are 31st and defensive DVOA. I feel great about the 49ers scoring over 30 points. Now, you're saying, all right, chill, well, there is another side of the ball. And that's true. That's why it's 12 and a half. That's why it makes me nervous. That's why I'm not

betting the mortgage on this game is because could Kyler Murray make some plays in this football game? Could the Cardinals' offense move the ball? Could they get some turnovers? Could they get some special team stuff? Yes. And that's why it should always make you nervous to take a number this big. Having said that, I still feel good about it. I think they're going to go up and down the field. I think they're going to score 30, 35 points. You get me a 3522 type game. I'm still covering it was 3523.

I lose. That's okay. I'll take it. There you go. This is one where I'm feeling, we talked about feeling squirley about Dolphins Jets. I'm feeling squirley about Niners, Cardinals. No Eric Armstead at practice, no Javon Hargrave at practice, no Aaron Banks at practice, Traverius Ward is trying to get back for this game,

not guaranteed that he's going to get back for this game. The Drake Greenlaw is expected to play. They're hoping that he's going to be able to go. You're getting a little bit banged up, the Niners are. This Cardinals team is just annoying to deal with. They do weird things on offense, and Kyler is a little jitterbug back there, and you just have to handle a lot with them.

And with the Niners coming off of the weeks that they've had, Eagles, into Seahawks. The Ravens coming next week. There's just this sleepy two-touchdown favorite. You're probably right. I should take that back. But you know what? It makes me itch.

I get it. I think you're right. It still makes me itch. See, I get that. Every game I pick, I have that feeling. I don't feel good about any of them. I'm like, well, but I think about all the bad things that can happen. But ultimately, you got to make a pick.

So I'm going with 49ers minus 12.5. All right. What do you have for your third one? All right. I absolutely love Eagles minus three if I know Gino's not playing. I absolutely. He's going to play. I think Pete Carroll said he's feeling good about Gino play. Yeah, and he had a full practice. I absolutely love Titans minus three if I know that C.J.

Stroud's not playing. And he's got, he's in the concussion protocol and they're saying they're trying to get him ready. So I would like whichever one of those lines where the other quarterback doesn't play. That's by ideal pick. I don't get to do that. I'm taking Eagles minus three on the road against the Oaks. This is a good. The Eagles are much better. of a team than multiple touchdown losses to two conference rivals. They are, right? They're not a great team. They're not an elite team.

They're not going back to the Super Bowl, winning the NFC championship again. You and I've been talking about them on the Philly Special for a long time this season. They haven't been that for much of this season. Well, they are as a team that can dump some points on the Seattle Seahawks, right? Like, the Seahawks defensively just have too many weaknesses that, like Bobby Wagner in the passing game and the running game, their corner rotation. Like, there are just ways to be successful against this team. AJ Brown remains one of the best.

He's having one of the best wide receiver seasons in the league. Like, it's quieted down if he's not doing 125 yards every single season. But I was going through wide receiver metrics the other day. He's still like second and yak over expectation among all receivers this season. Like he's just an absolute tank. And the Seahawks don't have an answer for that. I wouldn't be surprised if this plays out similarly to the Cowboys game did, where it's like, all right, the Seahks are holding pace offensively.

They're going to do it. They're going to knock off a top team. And then by the time you get to the end of the game, like their offensive line just can't hang up. hang and their defensive backfield can't hang, right? I was thinking the Eagles can run the ball successfully against this unit if they decide to. The Eagles running game has been driving me nuts for the last month or so.

But they offensively, they have so much firepower entering this one. And Seattle can get theirs against this secondary. I think there's going to be a lot of points scored, but I do think the Eagles can just outstrip the scene. They can outpace them. And while we haven't seen it in a few weeks, because they've been losing, when the Eagles carry a lead into the second half, they do a really nice job sitting on it.

They've always been successful at eating that clock away. So I'll take Eagles minus three. If I get Gino, I still like the line. I think it's going to be a little bit of a shootout, but I don't mind having the Eagles in a potential shootout. If I get Drew Locke, then I'm home free. So I'll take Eagles minus three on the road against the Seahawks. I like that side.

Yeah, I think, I mean, I don't like going against Pete Carroll in sort of a desperation spot. You know, they played well. Eagles haven't beaten the Seahawks in 15 years. So we're really going against it here. Yeah, but I mean, Eagles should have an advantage up front on both sides of the ball. You mentioned it. I think they'll be able to run the ball. I think they'll be able to move the ball.

That Seahawks defense all the way down to, I think, 26th and defensive DVOA. It has just been against good offenses. It has really struggled. So I think Seahawks can move the ball against the Eagles. That's what makes me a little bit nervous. Dehawks at home. Dehawks desperate. But I do like the Eagles on that side.

All right, my last one. Here's what I'm debating between. So I did have Rams minus six and a half, first Washington written down. I don't think that's going to be fun because you're taking that one. So I'm going to stay away from it. I did have Falcons, minus three. at Carolina. Take it.

Take the knife deeper into my heart, into my chest. They're going to win by 40. And I actually like the other side of Broncos Lions with the number plus four and a half there on the Saturday night game. I don't love it, but I just thought, you know what? The Broncos play the same game every week where they're just like, we're not making mistakes on offense. We're going to muddy this up. And their defense was turnover reliant, has been a little bit better. Fourth and defensive DVOA since week eight, I worry about that.

that Lions defense and think the Broncos can move the football. And Lions have some offensive line injuries as well. So I'm debating Broncos plus four and a half at Detroit or Falcons minus three at Carolina. Which one should I take? What do you? Falcons are going to cover. I promise you. Let's go. Let's go. Falcons minus two. I mean, if you're getting anybody against the Carolina Panther three points or less, you should probably go ahead and take that. So yes, this is a good one for content. If Falcons win this one, I can say, So like, listen, I know this Falcons team. I know. I know when they're going to cover. You don't know. I pick the Falcons. And if they don't, then I can say, Solex, sorry, you know, your preseason prediction of the Falcons winning the

NFC South. They can't even go to Carolina and beat Bryce Young by three points. So there you go. That's going to be my pick. Falcons minus three at Carolina. All right. So like, I like, I like this. I see it on your face. This was the right pick for content. I can just see. playing both sides with you. That's always your goal. It's to just make sure you're on both sides and you always come out on top and I respect it about you. Real quick, I do want to ask because this is a you move and I'm going to do it. Cowboys Bills is that, that's our game in the week. We were by both things in that game. Now the one of us picked it here for the spread. Do you have a lean? Cowboys, the 10 and three

Cowboys off a huge winning against the Eagles, dogs plus one and a half against the bills who, seven and six at home are one and a half point favorites. I pick the bills. I like the bills. I don't love the bills. I'm basically, I'm just going to ride with the bills for the last four weeks, basically. I feel like I like the bills more than the public likes the bills. So whatever the line is, I should just take them. I think it's obviously an evenly matched game. I worry about Dak Prescott throwing the football all over Buffalo, but, you know, Cowboys coming off that big win last week. Bills really need this one. Like I said, they can still be in the playoff race without winning this one, but I think they have more at stake. And I think they're going to be able to run the football against

that that Cowboys defense. The Cowboys have won five in a row. All right. And the last two wins have been long, primetime game against the Seahawks, 4135, and then in Philadelphia, or excuse me, home against Philadelphia,

beating Philadelphia again in prime time. They get coming up at Buffalo, at Miami, home against Detroit. What a stretch of games for these South Carolina. The Axeman cometh at some point. There's going to be some game over the next three where Dallas just drops it.

Right? It is so hard to win. You're going to win eight games in a row to end the season. And against these caliber of opponents, there's going to be a day. I'm not positive. It's this one. I have that Miami game circled. If Miami's healthy, offensive lines a little bit better, right? They're in Miami. That speed gets on top of them. That's the one to me where I'm very curious to see what that ends up shaken as. I personally, I would be on Cowboys at plus one and a half. I just think this bill's defense is bad. And I'm not sure that even Josh Allen's heroics can keep this thing at a point where if I'm getting the Cowboys with points, then I like that. But there's going to be a game coming up. And I'm just warning everybody that when we don't panic on Dallas, where Dallas just totally drops it for four quarters.

Because it's so hard to sustain this level of play against these caliber opponents for this long. I agree with that. All right. Give us your recap. What do you have for week? My prop of the week, Matthew Stafford's going to have at least 269. nice passing yards against the Washington commanders. My long shot of the week, the Packers are going to win, the lions are going to win,

and the Miami Dolphins are all going to win. It's going to be great. There's going to be no sweat. There's going to be no trouble. Against the spread, I'm taking the Rams minus six and a half against the commanders, the Bears plus three at the Browns and the Eagles minus three at Seattle. I've got for my prop. Jake Browning under 240.5 passing yards on Saturday afternoon.

Long shot, Puka Nakua, over six. 66 and a half, rams adjusted line, minus two and a half. That gets you to plus 153. And my locks of the week, I got Packers, minus three and a half first Tampa, 49ers, minus 12.5. At Arizona and the Atlanta Falcons, who would have thunk it, minus three at Carolina. Let's go. I've always been team Desmond Ritter and Arthur Smith all season long. All right, those are my locks on the week.

I love so lax face. This is going to be such a fun game to watch. listening at me when the Falcons go up 17 to nothing. Thank you to Benjamin Solac. Thank you to Cliff Augustine for producing. Thank you to Eduardo Ocampo for his video production. Additional production supervision by Connor Nevins and Arjuna Ram Gopal. Next up, Nora and Stephen on dual threat Sunday night recapping all of the week 15 games. Be sure to check that out. Solek and I will be back on Monday night. Thanks to everyone for listening. Have a great weekend and we will talk to you next week.

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