The Ringer NFL Show - NFL Week 17 Picks, Props, and Predictions! | Extra Point Taken

Episode Date: December 29, 2023

The Week 17 action began with the Browns clinching a playoff spot, led by possible Comeback Player of the Year Joe Flacco. Sheil and Ben discuss that and mega matchups between the Lions and Cowboys and the Dolphins and Ravens. Plus, headlines, picks, and nonsense predictions! The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please check out theringer.com/RG to find out more, or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Ben Solak and Sheil Kapadia Producer: Cliff Augustin Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Musical Elements: Devon Renaldo Social: Eduardo Ocampo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The ringer gambling feat is your one-stop shop for all things betting throughout the NFL season. From week one all the way through Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas, we have you covered every which way. We got our favorite futures. We got props. We'll discuss the lines. And, of course, we'll throw in a few parlets. That's a given. So whether you're a sharp or square better, we'll be breaking it down in terms.

Hopefully, everybody can understand. We'll try to win some money along the way. So be sure to subscribe to the ring of gambling feed on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Extra Point. Take a shielding here. Join by Ben Solac, Week 17. We just got finished watching the Cleveland Browns punched their ticket to the playoffs. 3720 win over the New York Jets.

One of the most improbable stories in the NFL is Joe Flacko coming out and just driving the kids to school and just throwing bombs on. any defense that gets in his way. He is going to start a playoff game. He might start multiple playoff games. We'll talk about that. We'll also look ahead here to the weekend slate picks, props, predictions, all the good stuff. Benny Souls, how we doing? I, the excellent content all game long, okay, 51 first half points, three second half points.

Beautiful. Five total turnovers, two pick sixes. Gorgeous, love it. Joe Flacco falling asleep on the. bench because he's a 40-year-old man who doesn't want to be up this lane on the eastern seaboard. Shano she'll love me. Relatable. I don't know if you saw this on the broadcast.

Kevin Sofansky, first Brown's coach to take the team to the playoffs more than once twice. Since, do you know who? Belichick didn't do it, did he? No. I don't know. Who? Marty Schottenheimer.

You were your muttering Schottenheimer. You heard it. You heard it. Marty Schoenheimer back in the 1980s. All right. It's been a long time since Browns fans went to the playoffs and then did it again. A lot of interesting ways to look at this Brown season in terms of how they've found their success and kind of who gets the, not the, I don't want to say the award for it, but that's kind of the framework here, right? I've seen Kevin Stefanski coach of the year.

I've seen Jim Schwartz for assistant coach of the year, which I really like. I think that one makes a lot of sense. I've seen Joe Flacco for comeback player of the year, which he didn't really come back. It came. He's old. He was old. That's what he's coming back from. And obviously, Miles Garrett for defensive player of the year.

This Browns team has, I think, surprised a lot of people, both relative to preseason expectations. If you brought up, like, hey, 11 and 5 Browns team, people have even preseason would have been like, wow. And then with the quarterback carousel they've endured, they're an 11 and 5 Browns team. A lot of kudos, I think, go to a lot of spots and deservedly so for the totality of this Browns team.

Yeah, I mean, the defensive thing is, like, that's obviously at the core for them. I mean, they have either the best defense or the second best defense in the NFL. They have Miles Garrett. They've got the corners. Jim Schwartz is a tremendous defensive coordinator. So that's there. I mean, this Flacco story, I mean, you say he didn't come back from anything.

Like, I don't know. I thought when the Eagles signed this guy as a backup two years ago, I was ripping them for giving him $3 million to be their backup with the Jets last year. He did not look like this guy. Now all of a sudden you see him with a very good offensive line, with a coach who can scheme things up and he's just in this mode. Like this was not a likable quarterback.

This was not a likable player for many years throughout his career. After he won that Super Bowl, he had a long stretch where the last thing I ever wanted to do was watch Joe Flacco watch football. And guess what? I'm sitting there watching the game tonight and I'm like,

this guy's likability is now through the roof with this comeback story. I mean, it really is amazing that he comes in out of nowhere and is playing this way and is chucking the ball downfield and his arm looks as strong and it's live as ever and he's really playing like someone with nothing to lose. You spoke about him, you know, taking a little nap on the bench. Absolutely,

I can speak to that. Listen, the dad mode that gets activated is you could sit down basically in any chair and within, you know, I would say two to three minutes. I mean, he's at it in seconds. Those eyes closed and I mean, you're out. And then someone kind of nudges you and you say, no, I was just resting my eyes. I'm good. I wasn't sleeping. You know, you have to lie about. That spoke to me. His beard, the neck beard was speaking to me. This is a fun story. And I'm not putting a ceiling on this Brown's team.

I mean, this isn't just like a funny, it isn't just like a cute little story. They're sneaking in. You and I were talking about before we came on. I mean, right now if the playoffs started, they're going to Jacksonville in the first round. I don't know if they're, I'm looking at unpredictable here.

I mean, they might be a favorite in that game. If not, I mean, we're talking about a spread that's within a point or two either way. I think they're playing better than the. Jaguars right now. That defense is going to give them a chance in any game. You assume Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore are going to get back. They're going to have an edge with their offensive line and their defensive line in pretty much any matchup. And the AFC, a lot of good potentially, hey, could make some noise type teams. No big juggernauts. So if you're a Browns fan, you got to be over the moon,

especially I was thinking about this, Ben, because you and I have had a lot of talk about the Deshawn Watson stuff over the last two years. And if Deshawn Watson is doing it, you doing this, this is not like, you know, a fun, playful everyone who's a neutral observer pulling for this team. It's totally different. But now with this version of the Browns, it kind of does feel that way. Like, unless you're a rival in AFC North, if you're a Ravens fan or whatever in the AFC North, if you're just a neutral observer watching this, it's really a hard team to not root for

right now. I couldn't agree more. And like the, oh, you know, it's not Deshaun that's doing this. so it's a relief. Like, that's like, it's a difficult framework because you don't want, like, like, Deshawn is still employed by the Browns. It was given a massive contract by the Browns. Whether he's playing or not, whether the Browns are successful or not,

the Browns endorsed Deshawn Watson as a dude. Right. They did that. And so overall, like, when I, when I watched the Browns, am I like, woo? No. And I will be for a long time. Like, did Joe Flack will play for the next 10 years?

Deshaun Watson retires not around. It's still going to be like, oh, I remember when the Haslam family did that. So that stays. With that looming, with that cloud there, with that unavoidable truth that just exists and it is in vision, it's kind of cool how Joe Flacco is just gripping it and ripping it. That is also existing. That's also happening. I saw, I did for the, the hot read this week of the column.

I was talking about Flacco, I was trying to understand like, all right, what's happening here. I went and I looked at his play action numbers. He got the third highest play action rain at the league. Oh my gosh. Yeah. He leads the league in explosive play rate, leads the league in A dot. All right.

So third most play. action and on play action, nobody's pushing it further down the field. He's on the Will Levis diet in terms of how much play action he gets at what he does. He's also like eighth in interception rate and top five in inaccurate throw rate. Like he is just shooting on play action. And listen, David Nujoku catch a run. Amari Cooper makes me right down the field. Like he's got the athletes for it.

That's what he does well. Did Joe Flacco Deep bomb? You might as well go for it. He isn't even farming DPI that crazily by Flacco standards. He's playing. The floor will come out eventually. Like the floor came out for Jake Browning and it comes out for Josh Jobs. Like always when a backup comes in,

like there comes a time where a defense catches up. But Flacco can last longer because he's been in the league more. He's just seen more and he's better at managing risk. And so I think the floor will come out eventually. But hey, we're two weeks in the playoffs and ain't come out yet. You really see the reps thing with him. It's like he has seen. I mean, there is no coverage.

There is no sim pressure. There's no pressure. look that this man has not seen throughout the course of his career. And he's playing that way. Yeah, is he going to put the ball in harm's way? He is. But you know what? He's not playing scared. He's not playing conservative. He's chucking the ball downfield. And it's a lot of fun to watch. And then, yeah, last thing, Kevin Stafansky, I mean, four different starting quarterbacks this year. And you're clinching a playoff berth year. And also, as we talk about often, hiring the right assistance, that is the job of the head coach. And so to move on last year.

And to bring in Jim Schwartz, that has made a big difference for the Cleveland Browns. And that's a big factor in why they're going to the playoffs. Jeff Schwartz, man, real quick. Yeah. A wonderful graph put out by, I believe it was Tej Seth of Sumer Sports. I can't recall. But a graph on defensive chaos, kind of like what teams change their scheme and what teams don't. And just on the far side, so many good defenses.

Mike McDonnell with the Ravens changing looks, Cis-Sugnold with the Chiefs, changed the looks, Big Fangio with the Dolphins, change. And then the far, far left side where no one changes anything, just the Evelyn Browns. Jim Schwartz, no one in the league just plays his stuff better. And the best part is the pick six. They were in single high, which they run more than anybody in the league, not more than anybody league, but more than most teams in the league. And they rotated to cover two, right? They dropped him down as a Tampa 2 robber and sitting through right at him. When Schwartz pitches his change up, it's the exact right moment. I love the guy. He's unbelievable.

said pitches his change-up because there's nothing I remember from a Jim Schwartz press conference more than that man loved a baseball analogy. Fastballs and change-ups. All the time. All right. Congrats to Cleveland Browns fans. It was a cool scene there. Exciting season for them.

As I always say, the most fun seasons are the ones that come out of nowhere. And when Deshawn Watson went down, if you're a Browns fan, you were probably looking ahead to 2024. And now all of a sudden, your season got rescued by Joe Flacko and this amazing defense. So we'll be talking a lot more about the Browns in a year. the weeks ahead. All right, let's look ahead to the weekend schedule. We got some good ones.

It's week 17, a lot of stuff still up in the air. We don't know it's going to be the one seed in either conference. I think going into the weekend 24 of 32 teams, we're still mathematically possible to make the playoffs. What is your headliner, Ben-Suelek? What is your big game? What is your big match-up? What's the big thing you're keeping your eye on here as we look ahead to this weekend?

Big matchup for me. The game of the week is actually the Saturday game. Ravens Dolphins is going to be a killer. I love it. I can't wait. I'm very excited for it. But I tell you, I'm so pumped for this Lions Cowboys game.

And I'll tell you why. I think the Lions can and will win this in Dallas. They just opened as six point dogs. They've moved to four and a half. I'm going to talk about Detroit in a big segment a little bit later. But Robert Mays at the Athletic tweeted out this week, defense success rate since week 13. Guess who's bottom in the league?

She'll last. Dead last shield. Cowboys. Dallas Cowboys just that injuries have caught up to the lack of Layton Van derrash and the lack of Jonathan Hankins has dramatically affected this team's ability to defend the run staunchly, right? We talked about Jim Schwartz is the lineup and play guy. Dan Quinn's line up and play guy. All right. He is very simple. He runs a lot of cover one, a lot of cover three. This is a single high team that wants to be gapped out in the box. They want to have plus one bodies to deal with your running game. But they are a light team. They are not a heavy team, right? They draft the Mazzie Smith and the deeds tackle in the first round

to try to become a heavier team. He has not panned out for them. Layton Van derrash is their thumbprint linebacker. He's not panned out for them. They had Rashon Evans on the practice squad. They were trying to get him some snaps. Now, he had a felony possession of marijuana. He's out of the team.

They have light linebackers, right? And they've gotten good play out of Gibralcox. Got a good play out of 14, the young man. I think it's Marquis Bell as a rookie for them. And if you move Michael Parsons around a little bit, oh, so digizuizu is a good defense to tackle. They have good players, but they are fundamentally lacking in size in the top seven.

and it is starting to catch up with them. Into town, Sheel, comes the healthy, the uproarious, the NFC North champion Detroit Lions and that offensive line. This game, it is strength against weakness on both sides of the ball

where Detroit is going to be able to layer up with tight ends. Put Laporte on the field, put Brock right on the field. We're going to go heavy personnel, two backs, Dave Montgomery and Jimmyar Gibbs. They're going to be able to hand this football off as much as they want against this front. They're going to be able to control pace

and control tempo. That's going to put the pressure on DAC and that Cowboys offense to shred a really bad lion's passing defense. I think you'll see that happen. I think you'll see touchdown drive, touchdown drive, touchdown drive,

but the pace here is the difference maker. The fact that the Lions can sit on the ball, that they can control the clock. To me, puts them in a spot where third quarter, fourth quarter, they'll have the chance to capitalize on a Cowboys mistake. They'll have a chance to eat a clock away

to maintain a score advantage. And then all you need is that timely pressure. All you need is that timely interception. And just as Jonathan Hankins projected out this game. Do-2 is still Tyron Smith, left tackle for the Cowboys. And again, injuries are catching up to this Cowboys team. Their backup left tackle, Chuma-A-Doga, not what you want out of a swing tackle in terms of the caliber of play that you're getting right now. And so they're hoping to get Smith back. You know, Smith's kind of okay. Like,

it's a management thing. It's through the course of the season, maybe into the rest of him now, so he's healthy for the postseason. But I tell you, Detroit matches up great into Dallas on the offensive side of the ball and defensively, I think they create enough trouble. They playmakers and in Hudson on a sack and if he melafonwu on a blitz beating chumadoga to get this thing done in Dallas if they do Detroit's in a spot where if they win a week 18 against the Vikings and the Niners lose to the Rams Detroit lines will be the one feed of the NF state and what a huge thing that would be talked about that a little bit on the Monday show this game on Saturday I'm thrilled for the matchup when both sides have the ball yeah it's

I agree with what you said there about you know certainly both off the Offenses should have a big edge. I mean, I'm not as convinced as you are that the Lions can make enough of those high leverage, big plays to slow down the Cowboys offense. But the offensive line injuries for the Cowboys are no joke. Like you mentioned, Tyrant Smith has not practiced this week. And in Doga, who you mentioned as the swing tackle, he was, I think, limited in practice. He's dealing with the toe injury here as well.

So they've got injuries on the offensive line. And you saw that show up in a big way last week. I thought in that Dolphins game. I mean, there were some high leverage spots there where they were not buttoned up with their protection, where Dak Prescott was getting pressured and it was leading to negative plays for that offense. So I think Dak's going to have a big game here. They're at home. I don't like that lion's defense.

I'm a little worried about the Cowboys offensive line, but I still think the Cowboys are going to move the football. But on the other side, I'm with you. This one's going to come up in one of my contest picks a little bit later because this lion's offense should be able to move the ball, should be able to punish, should be able to be more physical. than this Cowboys front here in this game. So that's absolutely a good one. Saturday night. Like you say, yeah, that opened at six, which I was looking at that early.

Opened at six, and I was like, there's no chance. And they got the four pretty quick. Now it's at four and a half. I figure you're to see it close at four. I, well, listen, Detroit's got issues defensively. Absolutely, they do. You called me onics. I didn't mention them when I was talking about them on Monday.

But I love an offense that can beat you every way around the sun, right? And so long as Jared Goff is indoors, I feel like he can. Now, obviously, the Dallas home field advantage is a big thing here, right? We did have, you know, we've had golf indoors, but on the road before, and there's been issues with that. I acknowledge the home field advantage. I think that Detroit right now feels it. They feel the shot. Okay, we got the North, and we are two weeks out.

All we need is one-niners loss, and we are the NFC champions. I think you see a spirited Lions team against Dallas in the Island game. Oh, I'm pumped. It's going to be a fun one. We'll hit on some more aspects of that game as the show goes on. All right, my headliner. I'm going with the other game. We got the Miami Dolphins going to Baltimore to take on the Baltimore Ravens.

You're talking about the one seed in the NFC? I'm talking about the one seat in the AFC. This one is very compelling for two reasons. One is the stakes here. Right now, Ravens 77% chance for the one seed, according to the New York Times playoff simulator. They win this game. They clinch.

They clinch the one seed. They can sit their starters in week 18 if they want to. Because that would also mean getting the buy here. Stakes are big for the Baltimore Ravens, but this Dolphins team, I mean, it is right there for them. If they win this game, they got a 60% chance. How about it? It would be the one seed. The road through the AFC could go through Miami if they win this football game.

And of course, they have a big one against the Bills in week 18. So stakes are very high for this one. And then the matchups, I mean, my good. At first I was just like, oh, yeah, you know, Dolphins' offense versus Ravens defense. And I'm like, no, no, the other side of the ball is. good as well. I mean, so you got the top three offense in the, the dolphins against the top three defense in the Ravens. That's going to be a monster matchup. We all saw what the Ravens did to the 49ers on Monday night. Dolphins probably don't have Jalen Waddle for this game, according to ESPN,

but the Ravens could be without star safety. Kyle Hamilton, his status is up in the air. So you've got that Ravens physicality, which they were, you know, talking, putting the puffing their chest out a little bit after that Niners game. They were feeling it. They were. They were They were feeling it against the Dolphins speed in this game. And so that's going to be a fantastic matchup. And then the other side of the football, Lamar Jackson against a Dolphins defense, which I'm not going to go as far as to say,

playing as well as any defense in the NFL. Yes. Man, they are up there. You could, though. You could say to who wanted to. Okay. Top two is success rate since Shailon Ramsey came back. I kind of put the Browns and Ravens right now on like the top tier and everyone else. Actually, I did.

I saw, I was doing work. today and then I was like, I should ask shield this. This is a good opportunity to ask you, ask you it. Playoffs. What defense are you most scared of running into right now? Like the number one defense you don't want to run into? It is, but it is the Browns for the Ravens. I think I would say,

whoo, I don't know. That's a tough one. I think I would say the Ravens. I don't know, no, I could go either way. The reason why I ask is because I don't think the dolphins are top three. I think, and like that's an interesting thing. They've been so good, but also like the Jaylon Phillips injury,

and I feel like there are getable players on this team. It's tricky. They've been, they've been very impressive. I think the top three of the Ravens, the Browns, and then still I think the Chiefs are up there. I do not want to deal. This Chief defense is a headache, dude. They're coming off of the Raiders lost, okay, whatever.

Remember, the Raiders scored 14 points on defense, okay? Aiden O'Connell didn't complete a pass for three-quarters, Sheal. Does this still a gnarly group the Chiefs have? That's interesting. My gut is telling me I would, I would rather face the Chiefs than the Dolphins defense. But I don't know.

I'll give that some more thought. Their seventh and weighted DVOA, which that takes into account how well is a team playing more recently. So this Dolphins defense has been playing great. I thought when Jalen Phillips went down, they were going to have some issues. That hasn't happened. And really what has happened is that you see more players getting more reps

in that Fangio scheme, which is a big thing, figuring out all the rules, how are we covering different looks on offense? Absolutely. And they're just jelling at, at really the right time. So I said on Monday, no team or Tuesday, whenever we recorded, that no team can win games the way the Ravens can.

And I believe that offense, defense, special teams. This Dolphins team, I mean, we know they can win with offense. I just told you about their defense, top seven, top 10. And what, they kicked 350-yard field goals, right? Last week against the Cowboys. I wrote it in the column. My Zag, this week, was the Dolphins can win the Super Bowl. My number one take was they can win in different ways.

This defense can carry the offense, the offense can carry the defense, and critically, this running game, we're past Flash in the Pan territory for this running game. Like, if they need to hand the ball off, 25, 30 times in a game, they can, and they create explosives, but they're also high in success rate. They will run between the tackles, even with a bad offensive line, and they can chunk five-yard gains on you and move the sticks. They can do it. Yeah, so I love everything about this matchup.

I love both sides of the ball. I love the stakes. I love Ravens coming off this monster win. I love dolphins. have only beaten one playoff team this season. That was the Cowboys. Last week, all their other wins are against teams that will not be in the playoffs.

Having said that, I'm not calling them fraud. I believe in this Dolphins team quite a bit. What's like the one thing you want to see in this matchup between the Ravens and Dolphins? What's most compelling to you? When the Chiefs played the Dolphins in Germany, Spaggs was outside of his melon. He was cooking.

And one of the really cool things to see in that matchup was that Spags used the Dolphins pension for motion at the snap against where Spag said, okay, if you're, if you're going to snap the ball with motion, like 75% of the time, then I'm going to rotate coverage right at the snap because guess what? I know when the snap is now. Oh, Tyree Kill started moving. Snap is in a second. Oh, Rahim, most are moving, snap in a second. I can time my rotations perfectly. And that really hurt Tua. That really affected his ability to read out defenses. You know who else? It does a very similar defense in terms of rotations to Spags. It's Mike McDonald with the Raven.

And so what makes the Dolphins offense work is that they weaponize pre-stap motion like no other offense in the league. But the smart DCs and the ones who have really well-coordinated, well-orchestrated back sevens can actually use that to really hurt you. Because now you're telling them when you're going to snap the football, they can conceal a lot from you. The X's and O is the chess match. I try not to get too geeky with it on the pod, but the chess match there, Spags or not, excuse me not Spaggs, McDonald versus McDaniel, the Battle of Mikes whose names. I always put in the incorrect team and the incorrect slot. That's, that's the matchup for the watch.

No, this is a great one for the football nerdery of it all, because both these teams are going to be playing in the playoffs. And if something big happens here, I can just envision a scenario where we're talking in the divisional round going, hey, remember what the dolphins did to the Ravens in week 16? Or remember what the Ravens did to the Dolphins in week 16? Team X is going to try that, or Team X just did that. And we just got an upset in the playoffs.

So this one is going to be a lot of fun. Can't wait for this game. All right, take a quick break. We'll come back. We'll get to the Monday morning storylines. And then, of course, our content. All right, we are back on. Extra point taken, Monday morning storyline.

What do you got? What are we talking about Monday morning after this weekend? Monday morning, we're talking about the race for the AFC South. You right now have a Houston Texans team. with C.J. Stroud returning, he is expected to play. They have upcoming the Tennessee Titans and then the Indianapolis Colts, which critically, the Houston Texan Shield, 8 and 7, the Indianapolis Colts, 8 and 7.

Guess what those Jacksonville Jaguars are? Losers of four straight in a row. Eight and seven. So we have a three-way tie at the top. Right now, Jacksonville holds the tiebreaker over both and Indianapolis holds the tiebreaker over Houston. Like I said, Houston has the Titans, though, and then they have the Colts in week 18.

So if Houston wins here against the Titans, a win against the Colts would ensure that they both have the tiebreaker against the Colts and then they obviously have a better record against the Colts as well. Indianapolis this week, they've got the Las Vegas Raiders at home. This is a Raiders team coming off of an impassioned and impressive performance. A Raiders team that's been playing well. You don't want to look at defensive success rate over a sample since week eight, best defense in the leagues being the Las Vegas Raiders. Now they've drawn some quarterbacks that help out with that. The first Eastern Stick game sure is handy for that, that, that stat there. But in general, there's been a much better defense under Antonio Pierce.

That, that Raiders team is traveling to Indianapolis. That's far from a pushover. That's far from a light game for them. And then you have the Jacksonville Jaguars. And they're the team with the Cupcake. They're the team with the light walk. They're hosting the Carolina Panthers, Sheal. Nothing to worry about in that game, right?

Save for the fact that the Panthers are coming off their best game against the Packers. Save for the fact that Trevor Lawrence is going to try to play through his ninth injury this season, just been hampered and affected. He's got a separated shoulder that he's trying to play with in this game. And so you either have a affected Lawrence, a limited Lawrence, or you potentially have C.J. Bethard with what could be the division on the line. And so all three of these games, all three of these teams, excuse me, are in no loss position. You cannot lose this game.

The Texans and the Colts, like, since they play each other, it might make it a little bit better. But the Jaguars have the Titans in Week 18. That's going to be far from a pushover as well. And so you've got here just a slot mess. You have a three-way tie at the top. You have tiebreakers that have yet to be decided. So you can't even fully riddle out.

Okay, if this team does this and that team does that. You have quarterback injuries. Don't remember back coming back from injury. Quarterback going into injury. It is a mess. So this is where three really good coaches in Doug Peterson, who's been the man for a bit, Shane Steichen, who's talked about the coach of the year? And Domingo Ryan's been talking about it for coach of the year.

Who's going to steer the ship through the storm, man? who's going to get the team locked in for the two weeks that are necessary to earn a playoff berth. And remember, the wildcard rounds also in shot for those teams that don't win the division. And so this is, this, this mess. When we go and gets tough, the tough get going. I'm so interested to see Jaguars four-game tailspin. Texans coming off of Stroud. Who is going to be able to get their team right for these two weeks?

AFC South, most interesting division for me moving forward. Yeah, we talk so much about the Texans throughout the season and how much we love C.J. Stroud and then just kind of like forgotten because the, you know, poor guy has a concussion. And, you know, I'm glad that they did not force him back. And he, you know, took him. Hopefully, uh, he's doing better now and we'll play in this game. But yeah, all of a sudden, if he's feeling good and he's back, it's like that throws a little whammy into the, the playoff picture because, man, that offense was cooking with CJ

Strout for most of the season here. Yeah. And they're also a good pressure team. Like there's been a lot of who is the team you don't want to run into in the playoffs. and you've heard the Los Angeles Rams and you've heard the Cleveland Browns and those are both legitimate. I would not want to run into the taxes

with Stroud back. Obviously, without Tank Dell, they have a little bit less gas. But I've watched enough Stroud this year to be like, don't want that for 60 minutes. Don't want to get into a shootout with that. That scares me a lot.

That's a team that when they're back to help and they're going to remind us why they're not a fun team to have to deal with for 60 minutes. Yeah, how'd C.J. Stroud look in a playoff game against an elite defense the last time we saw him in that spot. pretty good there in the college football

playoff last year. So that's a good one. Jaguars, Panthers. We don't trust this Jaguars team. And I will say this. I know not many people are paying attention to the Panthers. Bryce, if you like Bryce Young, like I do, I like Bryce Young more than you. That was absolutely the most encouraging start.

And I know you're going to say Joe Barry and Packers. I agree. Bryce Young played really, really well in that game last week. That was the very, version of Bryce. I was like, oh, okay. That version is still there of Bryce Young, the guy I thought I was going to see in his rookie season. It's kind of a big thing. If you're a Panthers fan, again, no one's paying attention. They don't have their first, their first round paying. But man, if he can string together two, three games here at the end of the season that look like that, that's just going to

make you feel so much better about this team going into next season. I was just so happy to see that last year where I'm just like, oh, man, he is spraying the ball, middle of the field, ball's coming out accurate. Arm looks strong enough. Whereas earlier this season you go, oh man, is it some of the physical limitations? So I was highly encouraged by that. So yeah, that is no easy win.

For the Jaguars, they've been in a tail spin there. And then your last one, Ben, really fits into my Monday morning storyline. My Monday morning storyline is a report that Mark Davis is sticking with Antonio peers for 2024. Now, to be clear, I don't know if that's. the right move or not. I'm generally in the camp of don't stick with the interim coach. Don't get duped by a small sample. Take a step back. Look at the big process. Interview a bunch of people. Get the GM on the same page. And I still generally lean towards that. But I look at this Raiders team.

I mean, you mention it. It's not just like, you know, this last stretch. They're eighth in defensive DVOA, Ben Solac. They don't have good enough players to be eighth in defensive DVOA. It's something, man. Patrick Graham. They never. have a good defense. They had good offenses under John Grover. They could never figure out the defense. Their defense suck year in and year out. And now they've got a top eight defense in the NFL going into the last two weeks. Congratulations to Antonio Pierce and Patrick Graham. You're in the Moore with Less Club. Just don't screw it up here in the last two weeks. But man, they are doing that, like, we probably didn't talk enough about it because I was too busy ripping the Chiefs on the

earlier show this week. Raiders, the Raiders were legit there. That wasn't the Chiefs just like giving the game away. Like they had Patrick Mahomes' head spinning. So I really like, this isn't one of my picks, but I do like the Raiders chances at Indianapolis. They're three and a half point underdogs in that game. I still don't trust their offense. I mean, their offense didn't do anything last week. So if you told me they're going to lose that game and their offense is going to look bad, that wouldn't shock me. They still have a shot at the post. It's crazy to say. I can't believe it. If they win this game, their chances of the playoffs are up to 36 percent. with the whole matchup against the Denver Broncos in week 18.

I mean, that is wild. I can't believe it. So I could see a scenario where they win this game. And Mark Davis is like, screw it. I want everyone to be feeling good about themselves. I like this team with Antonio Pierce. I'm giving him a shot. I'm announcing right now, Antonio Pierce is coming back in 2024.

And then they try to figure the rest out. So that's my sort of off the wall Monday morning storyline. That week 18, so I agree. Raiders defense, Patrick Graham, absolutely. Talked about that a little bit of the Colts. I'm good. I don't want to brush by it. You're talking about week 18 with the Broncos reminds me.

Russ is benched. We haven't had a chance to talk about this, you and I. Oh, yeah. I just assumed you were going to get that in a Monday morning headline. Shield usually loves that. It's already over, though. What is there to say? He's already been benched.

I should have predicted that like eight weeks ago, I think. So I was a little early. I did have that on a Monday. morning storyline. I feel like week six or something. Yeah. Right. Okay. I think what is there to say? Well, we'll do that later. I'll talk a little bit about what I have to say about that later because to me, Jared Stedham is a substantial on-field upgrade for the Denver Broncos. I think it's going to be reflected in the week 16 results. Okay. There you go. All right. Let's get to the contest. So, Alex. So thank you to Stephen Ruiz, Norr, Preciate. They, uh, pinch hit for me last week,

was feeling under the weather. Couldn't go. You know, I tried to go. And then, like, we did a podcast on Wednesday. And Cliff, Ace producer Cliff Augustine, text me after. He's like, are you okay? And I'm like, oh, man, all right, I'm really not sounding good. So I'm like, all right, let me take a breather.

They filled in for me. I sent you my picks. Yep. How did I do? How did we do? Where are we with our contest as we go in to the final two weeks of the regular season? You got a point. So, wow.

Tough. Good job, sick shield. Oh, wait. My flu game. Nope. let me run that back. You got three points because you got your long shot right again.

Sheila is now hitting. He has hit eight of 16 long shots. He is 50% on the thing that you are not supposed to be 50% on. Locks of the week, by the way, Shield is hitting on 35%. It is a twisted and backwards world for Shil Kapati right now on the competition. As a reminder, your long shot was Taylor Heineke over 225. He ended with 229.

You sneaky rat, you. Just unbelievable work. Altogether, though, a Jalen Warren over that didn't hit. You and I were both on the Packers, minus four and a half against the Panthers. Buddy, they were up 17. Joe Barry. It's so, and I thought the Panthers were going to get the tie and get us to overtime. We win by six.

Let's bring it home. Ridiculous. I had all the, the one o'clock slate games parlayed, by the way. Hit on five, missed on the sixth. Joe Barry got me. You had the bills against the Chargers, you had the Jaguars against the Bucks. So I guess it's bright enough in there for you. I went four for five.

I got six points on the day. We're now one point apart. I'm at 48. You are leading with 49. We are still as tight as it can be. And it promises not for content. We're not like usually like, oh, they're keeping it close. No, we're like trying to pick things that haven't happened yet.

We're still keeping it close. AJ Brown got over 75 and a half receiving yards. I had the Browns covering against the Texans and the Patriots against the Broncos. My long shot was the Bears covering seven and a half against the Cardinals, which they were able to do. My only loss was our shared Packers spread. So like I said, 48 points on the season for me, 49 for you, against the spread. The shields at 35%. I'm at 56%.

Our goal was 57%. I might get over it with the two weeks left of the season. I don't know if the collective will. That is your update. Thank you to Luke. Everybody can find the prediction tracker when we tweeted out after the pod comes out on Fridays. The splits continue to be interesting. I'm 50% on props, 50% on long shots.

You're under 40% for each and then you're killing me on the locks of the week. So again, if you just combine the two, you might have a chance here. What should we do for playoffs? Let's knock this out real quick because we got week 18 coming up. Wild card round is easy enough. I feel like we treat the wild card round just like we would the regular season, right? We can just do our prop, our long shot and our three locks. Then it gets, I guess a little bit true.

I guess divisional round, we could probably do the same, right? You're going to get four games. I don't think we have to change anything up there. Do you agree? We can each pick our re-locks and our, okay. Then it gets a little tricky. So the championship round, what should we do? Should we each pick both games for our lock?

Do we just pick one game? How do you want to handle that? The prop and the long shot, those are easy because you can do those for championship weekend and Super Bowl. So really all we have to figure out is the picks against the. spread portion of this for the championship round in the Super Bowl. So I think you still have to pick both games. Okay.

You have to give a prop. You can do like a prop for both games and then you can do a long shot overall and that way you get back to five, five total things. I also think if we get... Oh, so you want to up the total number. Okay. No, because instead of having three locks and a prop, which is a collectively worth four points, you'd have two locks and two props, which is collectively worth four points.

You can do that. Gotcha. So we still have a total of seven points available. Yeah. I like that. Right. Okay. The other thing that I think we shouldn't decide yet is, I think in the event that one of us

establishes the lead, which I like, this is not happening at any point in the season. Has it happened in 17 weeks. If it does, then we probably want to introduce a couple more long shot opportunities just to give the trailer a chance to catch up, keep the suspense for the listeners. But that's probably across your bridge when you get there sort of a thing. All right. Well, I think we should decide it by next week. So listeners chime in.

Let us know. I like your, I think your idea is great for you. the championship round. We keep it. So we'll have seven points available for wild card round, divisional round and championship round. And then, yes, we got to figure something

good for the Super Bowl, what we want to do. And we got to decide that before we know what the score is. So let's nail that down next week. All right. I can't believe all this is coming up. We have one more week of the regular season after this. This is wild. Okay, let's start up.

Prop of the week, Benjamin Solac. What do you got? C.J. Stroud's thrown for over 26. and a half passing yards against the Tennessee Titans. I love wide receiver props, especially outside receivers against Tennessee Titans. They've had struggles at corner this year with Christian Fulton and Roger McCreary, their starters. Sean Murphy Bunting as well. And they've also had injuries now at the seasons.

They've got a rotating cadre of guys, and they have dramatically struggled on the outside. I don't have any receiver props up yet because Texans receivers are dealing with injury. Neco Collins has been dealing with injury. You've had Noah Brown dealing with injury. They don't know who's going to play. What I do know is C.J. Shroud is coming back on a team that very desperately needs to win the next two games. And you can imagine C.J's pretty fired up, ready to go. I don't think he enjoyed his two-week concussion absence, which like usually a concussion is a one-week absence. I think that was probably frustrating. And I think the, uh, the caliber of play offered by Case Keenum was a little bit frustrating to watch.

I think C.J. comes out and they let the Bronco buck. I think C.J. comes out and they say, we, we know where our bread is butter when he's out on the field, we're going to throw the football. And so I have wide receiver uncertainty, but I've seen Noah Brown go off for 100 yards in this offense, right? They can make it work. And so with, with, with Bolton out for this game, with Murphy Bunting potentially out for this game, I like the, the Texans passing game to have an uproarious time. I'm worried about game script. I'm worried about 230 yards and we don't have to pass the football anymore. 264 is certainly a high number, but I want exposure to that passing game. So that's what I'm taking for today. C.J. Stroud over 264.5 passing yards.

As someone who was doing strout overs, what did I do a month in a row, three weeks in a row? Very fun to root for. I mean, just put that Texans game on, just watch him unleash bombs downfield. And it is very fun. So I like that one. All right. Mine it.

I'm going to tie rod Taylor. Tyrod Taylor over 21 and a half rushing yards? I couldn't believe this number. Tyrod. And a half. I almost felt bad. Now, this is a lock that it's not going to hit because I've, feel so good about it, but he had 21 rushing yards in the second half last week against the Eagles.

The man can still move. The man can still scramble. This Giants offense stinks. They're facing the Los Angeles Rams at home. I don't even need the designed runs. Maybe they're going to mix in some designed runs. I don't know, but just give me two to three scrambles, and I think he picks this up. I actually was looking at, I was like, wait, there's no alternate Tyrod Taylor rushing yard up on

a fan doke. Shield in week one was like, Ben, where do you find these problems? How do you, where do they keep the receiving props? How yeah. Week 17. There's no alternate Tyron Taylor rushing yard lines that I've got here. You are with me. You are one with me.

We are one and the same, baby. I relate to you. I love it. We're living in America here. You can't give you Tyrod Taylor. Alternate and Washington Yards. What is this? So instead, I'm just taking the straight prop over 21 and a half rushing yards.

All right. Long shot of the week. This has to be plus 150. or higher, what do you got? I'm back to the well on Bears alternate spread. I love this Bears team. This Bears team has been treating me right. When you watch them play too, like the Browns game obviously was a,

I got a push on that. They didn't treat me right there. But the Browns game, they were great. This Cardinals game, they were great. They've done a bad job sealing games away. And I think you could say, okay, well, Ben, like you probably shouldn't take them on the alternate line then. But in general, I think they're playing below their weight even.

I think they continue to play at a high level. And remember, the bears have no reason to lose, right? They're just Matt Iberflus is coaching for his job. And the guys very clearly feel good about that. Justin Fields, uh, the defense effort that you're getting. This is a spirited group and it's largely a healthy group, which I really, really love at this stage of the year. Do you say, okay, Ben, all right, bears alternate line.

That's not exactly. I've done that a thousand times before. Yeah, it's only plus 144 this time, minus 5.5. And so I got to get it parlayed with something. Okay, the bills are huge favorites against the Patriots. Ah, I know, Patriots, Bo Belich. The Niners, huge favorites against the commanders. Jacoby Brissette's playing that game.

What if it had a little better? Yeah. So I ended up going with that Niners money line. I took Bears minus five and a half and the Niners Money Line, which far away together, brings us to plus 175. So I clear 150 by a lot. I think the Niners are going to handle our business against Washington. I think it's the Week 18 game against the Rams that really gets interesting.

And I don't think that the Bears are going to have a nice performance against the Falcons. I think the Bears right now are just, they're a high power rating team for me. They're a team that if I look at season long, numbers, okay, they're a little bit below middle of the pack. If I look at since Justin Fields came back from injury and I look at my betting numbers, they're a fringe top 10 team for me, like in terms of how they performed the Montez Sweat trade and the return of Justin Fields. This is a very legit team. And the Falcons are playing for a nine percent playoff hope. And to me, don't look good on the field. Don't like the vibes around that team. I'm taking

Bears minus five and a half. So the Niners money line in there, get us home. Really impressive turnaround by the Bears and Matt Eber Fluce. I mean, this team was a laughing stock in what the first four or five weeks of the season. They looked like one of the worst teams in the NFL. You didn't expect anything from them this season. Last six games to your point, four and two. And their two losses are by a combined eight points. They have been a very, very competitive team now for six weeks or so. It was pretty telling last week. I mean, they blow the Cardinals out. They put up over 400 yards of offense and it wasn't like, like no one was really like, oh, man, where that? It was just like, oh, yeah. It's a couple

Explosives to Cole commit a couple big runs because Herbert chucked out. They didn't even need DJ more. They were in first gear. The running game looked great. Yeah, they were running all over on last year. The Bears really like, I alternate universe bears or field doesn't miss that month with a thumb injury because he was starting to come around the corner, I think, before the injury. Alternate universe, that Bears team is like wildcard frisky dude. They get them the Montez Sweat trade done. Matt Eberfuss, not even talking about the job.

I'm very interested to see if Ibrufus does enough free down the stretch or run to the job. That's a very like, I'm very curious in that favorite. story line. We'll get there when we get there. Yeah. So I like that one. I think that's a good one. I like the Bears minus three in that game. All right. I'm going to your first point on the pod here and going to that

Saturday night, Lions Cowboys game, Jamire Gibbs, 60 plus rushing yards. And then to your point, that didn't quite get me there. So I'm going to go a little Eagles alternate line minus one and a half. There's 10.5 point favorites. I just need a little bump. Eagles minus

one and a half combined with Jemir Gibbs, 60 plus rushing yards, that gets me to plus 150. Gibbs looked incredible last week against the Minnesota Vikings. I mean, he was, he is just an explosive play waiting to happen. He moves differently than everyone else on the field. We talked about it earlier, that Cowboys run defense is an issue. I think Gibbs is going to get carries in this game. He had 15 carries last week. He's been over 60 rushing yards in four straight games.

lion the alliance are so efficient their run game you and i always talk about like what teams can run the ball efficiently that don't have a quarterback who can run those are like the really really impressive teams lines are fourth in rushing dv oa even though they don't need to get anything out of uh jared golf obviously in the run game so uh cowboys run defense vulnerable love jimir gibbs love the lion's ability to run the football in that game and then the eagles just have to win by two at home on new year's eve against john Johnny games. There you go. That's my long shot of the week. What do you think? Absolutely love Jamir Gibbs, alt rushing overs. And I'll tell you, some degenerate behavior show, you're ready.

I have pretty much every single week for the last like six weeks taken both David Montgomery and Jamir Gibbs rushing overs, alternate rushing overs in the same game because one of them gets home. And so so long as I'm in plus money, it just arms out the other one. And I'm still in the green. On a couple games, both of them have gotten home. Someone in this lion's rushing attack. It's hard to figure out. Like, they like, okay, you know, they like Montgomery a little bit more like their duo and their zone stuff and they'll run Gibbs and some power stuff and whatever. Like, but someone's going to rip an explosive or Montgomery's going to get like he had like a six carry drive to start the game. Someone's going to get like a volume bump. I can't figure out who.

So I just take both of them. And overall it's been extremely profitable for me. This rushing game, it just deletes whatever's in front of them. I love getting exposure there on the pod because like I said, I think it's going to be a big narrative on Saturday's how will the lines run the ball. I just realized I got Montgomery going in a fan of it. Championship and now I got my get my long shot here tied to Gibbs. Let's just run the football Detroit Lions. All over on a lot of different spots. Someone's going to be successful here and you're going to get benefits from it. Congrats on the fantasy championship. I got a best ball tourney

that I got a I got a ticket for. I have both Gibbs and Montgomery on that team. So anybody, anybody can eat. Gibbs Montgomery. Let's have a big Saturday night. All right, we'll take one more break. We'll come back. Nonsense prediction. And then our locks at the week. I got to hit some of these. Come on, I'm not this bad at it. I can't be this bad at it. We'll be back in a minute. We are back on.

Extra point. Ticket. Nonsense prediction. Weird week 17. All these games on Sunday. What do you got, Solac? What's your weird prediction for this weekend? Kenny Pickett replaces Mason Rudolph at halftime.

Wow. Is that possible? Is Kenny Pickett going to be active for this? game? I just kind of wrote them off. Ray Fittapolto of the Pittsburgh Post Gazette, speaking with Kenny Pickett out Wednesday afternoon. Pickett said it feels like I'm on track with what I need

to do. It's what they see me doing and how they feel I'm moving around and everything. He was not active for the Bengals game, though in practice he was moving around. He's taken second team reps behind Rudolph. They have put him out there on a typical practice schedule. He's not taking first team reps. He's taking second team reps.

I don't think they have not said like a the word bench for the word like you know we want to look at rudolph for the future like i don't think they're framing it that way at all like oh we're going to be you know very very careful with with kenny or whatever but i think that picket is healthy enough it's usually a four week timeline on the tightrope surgery up for the high ankle sprain and that's what he had he's on he's on the four week timeline at this point i think he's healthy enough to play they've said that they plan on starting rudolph and i think that they will start rudolph but picket will dress because i think they're a little bit

just seeing what the other guy has like i i i get that read in the room slightly. I think Mason Rudolph doesn't have very much, and I think they're very thin playoff hopes are on the line. And so I would not be surprised if we get a 13-0-0 Seattle Seahawks over the Pittsburgh Steelers half-time, and all of a sudden, Scott Hanson on Red Zone. Sorry, I'm taking you away from Matt Eagles drive here. Something interesting going on in Seattle, or Pittsburgh, no, yeah, in Seattle,

we've got, but, Kenny Pickett's warming up, I start half outside. I'm trying to do my best Scott Hansen voice. I don't know how Scott Hansen voice. I think quarterback Tom Foolery is a foot in Pittsburgh. And I would like to see it just for the pure drama of it. But I would not like to see Mason Rudolph throw any more snaps than I have to. And so my preferred personal drama is Mason Rudolph starts and gets bench midgame and a must win game for both teams. Steelers, Seahawks, winners go, a loser's going home. Right. I mean, you've got to have it. I think we might see a quarterback shift there at half time. Well, my prediction is also for that game.

Wow, worse it goes. I wish I had something as specific, but I just have something is going to happen in the last four minutes of that game that will become the biggest story of the weekend. I mean, all the pieces are in place here. Like you said, you got Pete Carroll fighting for his playoff life. You've got Mike Tomlin fighting for his playoff life. You've got the Steelers as underdogs. You've got the Seahawks at home. You've got George Pickens.

you've got D.K. Metcalf. It could be a weird call. It could be, I was thinking, a coach throwing the red challenge flag when they don't even, they don't have a challenge left. They have no timeouts like, oh my God. A good one. A good one. And then maybe like an assistant runs out on the field and tries to snag it and give it back to him before anybody sees it.

Something like that. It could be, you know, Mike Tomlin accidentally bumping in to D.K. I don't know. It could be anything in this game. This is just going to be a game where everyone's going to be sitting there looking at the late window on Sunday and all of a sudden, all your eyes, if you're watching Red Zone, it's going to go there, something weird is going to happen in that Steelers, Seahawks game, and that's going to be what everyone is talking about on Monday morning, Sunday night, lead the highlights,

lead the lead into the Sunday night football, whatever. I'll be shocked if that's just a normal end to a game. I predict chaos, Seahawks, Steelers. So there you go. All right. Locks of the week, so like, I got. How do you feel? We go live. We go live. to shield Kapadia. How are you feeling about it? So if I'll go to week 17. All right, here, I'll give you my descriptions of the ones I'm looking at. First one, I'm doing, I don't love it, because I'm taking a dog against the team that I think is really good. Second one, I don't know if I should do it or not. I might not do it. I might back out at the last second. Third one, I really like, but it feels like a rat line and I don't want to get suckered in by the rat line.

It's too easy. Why are you doing the shield? You know it's going to screw you. Fourth one, the team keeps part of me, but I can't quit on. Okay. Okay. With that description, the underdog that you like against a team that's very good is Bengals plus seven against the Chiefs. No. Dang it. Okay.

Second one you said you don't actually like it at all. But I might take it. But you might take it. Is that Braiders plus three and a half? No, I do like it, but I shouldn't do it. I shouldn't do it. Someone should take like my keys away. Like, it's one of those.

Like, no, I don't. Sheel, you can't do it. Is that, is that, is that Raiders? No, that is the, I did think about the Raiders, but then I'm like, do I want the Raiders coming off that Chiefs win? No. All right. So the first one, all right, go, well, no, keep guessing.

I like this. Okay. The rat line. What do you think the rat line is? The rat, where I'm looking at it going and saying, come on, I like this a lot, but am I just the sucker who keeps losing these and is picking 35% of what it is against the spread? Because you keep falling into these traps. I mean, I'm pretty sure it's Packers plus one and a half against the Vikings.

No, that was the last one. That's the team I can quit. Oh, my gosh. Okay, give us a trick. I want to hear him now. Well, I don't know. All right, so I'm giving you my first one. Then I need to hear yours and I need to look at the rest of mine.

So the one I'm taking where I shouldn't take this because the other team's great. I like the dolphins plus three and a half at the Raven. All right. Probably stupid, taking the team that just killed the 49ers. Maybe the team. That's the favorites that win the Super Bowl. But I'm looking at this. Raven's coming off a big time win.

I said, I like how this Dolphins defense is playing. I think they're going to be able to keep that Ravens' offense in check. And offensively, I just kind of trust it with Mike McDaniel that he's going to be able to come up with something, even though they probably don't have Jalen Waddle for this game. They still have Tyreekill. They can still be explosive for this game. So I just think the dolphins, as we mentioned,

they're just tough to put away. I think it's going to be a close game. I don't think they're going to get blown out. They got blown out a couple of times earlier in the season. Their defense was not playing at this level back then. So I believe in them a lot more. Zay Flowers has not been practicing for the Ravens. Brandon Stevens, the cornerback has not been practicing for the Ravens.

So I think maybe a little bit of a come down for the Ravens. I think competitive game. I think Dolphins certainly have a chance to win the game. But I think, you know, that that half point really made me go here. If it's plus three, I don't know that I take it, but plus three and a half, I like it. I like their chances to keep it close. There you go.

I got the Miami Dolphins plus three and a half for my first pick. How stupid am I? Yeah, I mean, these are the two teams. Like, I've been banging the drum on both these teams for a while. I love them both. My, I make it three and a half with Ravens at home. Like, to me, it's the appropriate line. I make it three with the Ravens at home, but obviously it's a lot of juice.

They're both excellent teams. They're both very polar teams, right? in terms of what the dolphins do on offense and how you handle that is kind of unique. And then with Lamar presents as a threat on offense, how you handle that as a defense is unique. And so it's hard to map. Okay, they played this way against these teams previously. Like I brought up like this, oh, this Spag's game plan. Like I think McDonald can do that.

But because they're unique teams, it is hard to read like how they'll handle one another. I don't want to touch the line. I'm so excited for the game. I, you know, think it's going to be, oh, I think it's going to be like a little bit of an Isaiah likely game. I think it's obviously going to be a big Tyree game. I think Tyreek is the linchpin for this whole thing. But I don't have a good lean on the spread.

So Dolphins plus three and a half is as good as anything. What do you got? What's your first one? All right. First one for me is the Texans at home minus four and a half against the Titans. I love this one. Titans are out of playoff contention. Texans are still in it.

Will Levis practiced on Wednesday limited performance? They're, I think, going to try to get him out there. Levis is, I think, a little bit worse for the Titans than Tannihil is in terms of quality of play. like I think playing him is the right thing because of the development aspect of it, but we're talking about power rankings just on a weak, a weak scope. I love this a little bit of a downgrade for me. I talked about that Titans injuries in the secondary, right, where they have no Sean Murphy Bunting.

They have no Christian Fulton for this game. They're playing Trey Avery on the outside. DJ Shroud's coming back in for this one. It's just, I think it's a great Texas are at home. I think it's just a great Texan spot. I think you're just going to see a lot of points from them. I think you're going to see them handle business against the divisional opponent and ensure that going into week 18, if they beat the Colts,

they're looking strong for at least a wildcard spot, if not the AFC South. So this to me just screams, Stroud, D'Amico, back on track. Here we go. I like the Texans win and went big. All right. There you go. All right, my next one, this is the one I said,

and my sucker for taking this. I'm going to go ahead and take it. I've got the Rams minus five and a half on the road at the New York football Giants. I just like this Rams team a lot. The buzz has been picking up. I don't like that. I wish they were not popular.

I wish no one was talking about them. Buzz has been picking up this week. They've won five of six, though. Four of those wins have been by more than a touchdown. Only loss in the last six games in overtime at the Baltimore Ravens. This team is just playing really, really well. I trust their offense. I trust the quarterback.

I trust the play caller. I trust the weapons. And maybe most notable, they're getting very healthy at the right time right now. You go through all the injury reports this week. None of them really look like as good as the Los Angeles Rams. So I think this Giants team stinks. They don't have a lot of options on offense. They try to muddy it up on defense and hit or miss. They're going to give up some explosive plays. Last week against the Eagles, they get huge special teams play. They get 70-yard touchdown on offense. They get pick six on defense. And they still lost by eight points in that game.

Like they were outplayed so badly in that game and they get those three huge high leverage plays just to keep it close. So I was thinking, you know what? If I lose this, if the Rams win by five, if they win by a field goal, whatever, because of some of that flukiness,

I can live with that more than I can live with some of the other stuff. So I feel like I'm a sucker. I feel like I can't see a lot of people taking the Giants plus five and a half in this game. Maybe I'm wrong. But you know what? I looked at all the games.

And that's the game I liked. Rams minus five and a half at the giant. I'm on Rams minus five and a half against the Giants. Oh! This is right. You say it's a soccer bet. All right, but guess what?

The Rams are a lot better than the Giants are. And okay, does Tyrod give them a boost? Tyrod, I think a better player than DeVito has been? Absolutely. Does that change the way this, this, this, this Giants defense matched up against the Rams, which is just terrible? No, like man coverage, Matthew Stafford, Matthewsdaft against the Blitz, Ben Eaton.

They also be ability to run the football. When they have Kyron Williams, behind this healthy offensive line, man. I mean, like, they've just been able to dominate on game script. They can take whatever you don't give them. The Giants do not have the horses defensively to deal with the number of weapons that are available for the Rams in the team. I think that they are going to be hard-pressed, keep this game on neutral script.

And once this goes past script, like, how can do stuff for you, right? We saw the big bomb touchdown of Darius Slay, and like, he is a professional quarterback. He is a good backup. But it's going to be now 45 minutes of gameplay behind that offensive line going up up against a Browns, excuse me, a Rams defensive line that's actually good, like that, like Byron Young, Kobe Turner, who Kobe Turner's got six and a half sacks on the season, dude, Aaron Donald, like this, uh, I hope, the guy who's last name I don't pronounce. They got guys, this defensive line can play for you.

Being in pass script against this, this Rams team is just not good at this. Especially when you win the Giants, I don't think they're equipped to handle that with their receiver room in their offensive lines. I think Tyrod is a boost. I don't think it's meaningful enough that this line should be five and a half. I'm with you on the sucker bet. you and I were there on Packers minus four and a half. We're just going to go down with these

over three lines of the teams that should win. We'll go down with the ship. I mean, the Packers had that kick. I switched off that game. I said, go to another game and then all of a sudden I had to come back to it. All right. My last one, speaking of which,

I'm looking at two here. I'm not quitting you, Green Bay Packers. I don't care. I figured. I figured. Plus, the other one I was looking at was Steelers, plus three and a half. But you know what? I said weeks ago, I am not allowed to pick any Steelers game anymore. So I'm just deleting that and I'm taking the Green Bay Packers plus one and a half at Minnesota. This Packers offense is really, really, really freaking good. Aaron Jones looked awesome.

Last week against the Panthers, they're all the way up, Ben, the fourth in passing DVOA. First year of the post Aaron Rogers era and your fourth in passing DVOA, that is a home run. I think they're going to be able to move the football on the Vikings. their defense has come back down to earth a little bit? The last couple weeks here against the Lions and the Bengals, Brian Flores has still done a tremendous job. It still makes me nervous, but they are limited in terms of personnel. Now, the other side of the football is the reason why I'm going to be sitting here

at 1130 on Sunday night crying because they cannot get stops against Jaron Freakken Hall and their Joe Barry is costing me Packers plus one and a half. So yes, that makes me nervous. Kevin O'Connell can scheme it up a little bit. They've got Justin Jefferson. They've got good wide receivers against a Packers defense that just basically any team that plays the Packers defense, they put out their best offensive performance of the season. It's literally happened two weeks in a row.

It's almost happened three weeks in a row. The other team, I think, three weeks ago, it was their second best offensive performance of the season. Last two, Bucks, Panthers, their best offensive performance of the season because this Packers defense stinks. So that makes me nervous, but still you're facing a rookie quarterback. at least in Jaron Hall. And it's like plus one and a half.

If it was Packers, you know, minus three and a half, then I would be even more nervous. I know I'm going to lose this bat. Listen, I know I'm going to lose this lock. I don't care. I can't help myself. If I pick the Packers every week from now until the end of the time, one of those times, it's finally going to hit.

I'm sticking with them. Packers plus one and a half for my final one. Listen, it's one thing to fail to cover against Price Young. At least use the first overall pick. if you can't cover against Jaron Hall. As underdogs. As dogs. All right.

Where the Viking starting quarterback arc has been Kirk Cousins into Jaron Hall, into Josh Dobbs, into Nick Mullins, back into Jaron Hall. You can't beat that guy. You just can't play. You got to change the defense coordinator on the site, dude. You have to leave him in Minnesota. You have to go find where Mike Zimmer's retirement home is in the greater Minneapolis. era, put him on the plane with you and take him back home, dude.

Such a good idea. That's literally what they need to do. Not my original idea. Justice Muscat, my buddy's a Packers fan of Acme Pack. How did that not happen four weeks ago? This is the best idea I've ever heard. Zimmer. How?

And we just, we just, and listen, you know, like, oh, Mike McDonald's, the spinners and rotating coverage, Steve Spagnolo, rotating coverage putting guys in line of scrimmage. You know who've been doing that for a long time? Mike Zimmer. Now, he does a little more, a little more aggressively than the other guys. But still, Zimmer, I think, yeah, a DC job for Green Bay would be fun.

They would be weird to see him in those colors. Yeah, no, I was very close to taking the Packers as well. They absolutely like, just beat Jared Hall. Just beat Jared Hall. Beat Sharon Hall. Jordan Love against Brian Flores, though, young quarterback against that DC. It can be some fireworks,

going to be some big moments. I feel terrible about it. There's no chance I win that. No one take that. All right. Go ahead. What's your last? Last one for me. If you think you feel bad, let me just pinch my nose real quick.

And take the Broncos minus three and a half against the charges. I like it. I'm in on that pick. I was hoping we would get, did him at some point so that I could take the Broncos. I was going to look for the Broncos that week because I think Russ has dramatically hindered the offense. I just watching him on film and then I saw him live against the lines a couple weekends ago. And it's just astonishing. Like, once you're seeing it live, you really realize just how open these guys are that he's just refusing to throw the ball to.

He doesn't play with him the structure of the offense. Like, if Stedham can just point and shoot, which we've seen enough of Stidham to know that he will point and shoot, you can move the ball down the field with their receiver talent. Now, Borland Sutton's in the protocol. He missed Wednesday and he missed Thursday. I would really, really like this if I knew Sutton was playing. I don't know if Sottin's playing. That stresses me out because Judy, plus Mims, plus Little Jordan Humphrey, like is it not the sort of wide receiver room that you want for a young quarterback? you want Sutton, the inaccuracy eraser,

the quarterback friendly, I'm going to be where you told me to be, when you told me to be there guy. Judy's a freelancer. Judy's a wild horse. Like, that's not what you want with the young quarterback. And so the lack of Sutton almost got me off of this. We don't know if he's going to be there or not. But they're at home against the Chargers team that had the interim coach bump

and played a great performance against the bills. But fundamentally, this is a team that's being run by Easton Dick. and they have no receivers. Like, they're, there right now are at the bottom of my power ranking. Like, the ones we submit weekly for the ringer, they're 32.

Like, I, this team without Justin Herbert to me, it's, can Cleomack get a sack pool? If not, but we're losing. Like,

I, there's, there's so few outs for them on. So if I'm getting a line, just a hair over a field goal, even with Stidham in his first start in Denver and no sudden, like, my,

my body is screaming at me not to do this, but I'm taking it because I was looking for it. Broncos, minus three and a half at home against the charges. Well, it's the old classic. You take the new coach bump in week one, and then you fade the new coach in week till. So that could be working in your favor.

Here's my only question, okay, with the Broncos, and I generally agree with what you're saying. I love, I'm glad you have a question because we've been podcasting long enough. I was watching your face while I was talking. I was like, Shil's got a doubt about something. I can see it written on your face. You and I.

Okay, okay. So Sean Payton has watched Jared Russell Wilson every week this season and has watched Jared Stidham in practice. They went out, they aggressively signed Jared Stidham. It's why earlier this season, I thought he was going to replace him in week six.

Why did it take this long for Sean Payton to say, because I kind of agree with you. I feel like Stidham might give them a better chance than Russell Wilson. Why does it take until Week 17 with the team out of the playoffs for him to finally make this move?

That's the only thing that has me slightly concerned that he's watching Stidham. He should know Stidham by now. He never thought to really, you know, give him a serious chance. Is it just because, hey, they're paying Wilson all this money and they're winning games and just stick with it? How do you respond to that? Why did it take this long for Sidham to get a chance? I think, given the way this was reported, I think a lot of it had to do with a green flag from ownership and from the front office.

Probably not the front office, actually, John's got to run in the front office. A green flag from ownership to make the clear impactful switch that, hey, we're moving off for us, not just for the football decision because Payton did frame it as a football decision, but also because we're going to make sure these injuries don't guarantee and we are going to move on from him this upcoming off season. I think that that is,

I don't think Sean had complete unilateral power to say, I'm bench and Russ for dead and we're getting ready for life without Russ. I think that that's still how to have ownership involved. And to me, like I would imagine that was the hindrance. They also were winning. It's hard to do when you're winning. Now, when they were winning,

you and I were on this podcast being like, this is not good. All right? Like, the defense, we talk about a lot, like, it's unbelievable run of turnovers.

And Russell was, like, not turning the ball over and people were like, see Russ is fixed. It's like, he's just avoiding the worst thing. He was not bringing anything to the team. So it's hard to do it when you're losing.

I think that this is the window. Like, you just lost to the Patriots. Once you do that, it's like, all right, can I please now make the quarterback change? Yeah.

I think it's a political thing. I think it's a money thing. I think it's a timing thing. I'm confident that Stidham. It'll be better for the offense than Russell. Yeah, we shall see. All right, give me your recap. What do you got?

Prop, long shot, and your three locks of the week. CJ Stroud is going to have over 200 and a half passing yards against the Titans. The Bears will cover minus five and a half against the Falcons. The Niners, by the way, will also beat the Washington commanders. Those two things parlayed together are my long shot. And against the spread, three bigger than a fuel goal, smaller than a touchdown favorites, the old Ben Solac special. Rams minus five and a half against the Giants.

Texans minus four and a half against the Titans and the Broncos, or excuse me, the Broncos, minus three and a half against the Chargers. All right. I've got Tyrod Taylor over 21 and a half rushing yards, long shot, Jemir Gibbs, 60 plus rushing yards, and Eagles alternate line minus one and a half. That gets you to plus 150, locks of the week, dolphins plus three and a half. Anytime you can take a team against the team that just had maybe the most impressive win in the season and might be Super Bowl favorites, you got to do it. So I'm doing that with the dolphins plus three and a half. I've got, also got the Rams minus five and a half at the Giants. And then I cannot quit the Green Bay Packers plus one and a half at the Minnesota Vikings.

There you go. All right. Thank you to Benny Souls. Thank you to Cliff Augustine for producing. Thank you to Eduardo Ocampo for his video production. Additional production supervision by Connor and Evans and Arjuna Ramgopal. Next up, Nora and Stephen on dual threat recapping the week. 17 games, and then Solek and I will be back on Tuesday to talk about everything that happened

and look ahead to week 18. Happy New Year's, everybody. Have a great weekend. And we will talk to you next week on extra point ticket. Must be 21 plus and present in select states. Fandwell is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino, LLC. Gambling problem? Call 100 gambler or visit fandle.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, New Jersey,

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