The Ringer NFL Show - NFL Week 18 Picks, Props, and Predictions! | Extra Point Taken

Episode Date: January 5, 2024

The final week of the regular season is here! Sheil and Ben have you covered with all the fun scenarios needed for teams fighting for playoff spots, including the Bills, who could get the 2-seed or totally miss the playoffs. Could Justin Fields and Matt Eberflus potentially keep their jobs with a victory over the Green Bay Packers? Plus, headlines, picks, and nonsense predictions! The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please check out theringer.com/RG to find out more, or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Ben Solak and Sheil Kapadia Producer: Cliff Augustin Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Musical Elements: Devon Renaldo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The ringer gambling feat is your one-stop shop for all things betting throughout the NFL season. From week one all the way through Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas, we have you covered every which way. We got our favorite futures. We got props. We'll discuss the lines. And, of course, we'll throw in a few parlets. That's a given. So whether you're a sharp or a square better, we'll be breaking it down in terms.

Hopefully, everybody can understand. And we'll try to win some money along the way. So be sure to subscribe to the ring of gambling feed on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Extra Point. Take and Cheel Capadia here joined by Ben Solac. Week 18, I can't believe the words that are coming out of my mouth. Week 18, 16 games, 11 teams that don't know their playoff fate. In a few days, they'll either be, you know, some island somewhere, doing whatever they do in the offseason,

or they will be preparing for a playoff game. They're buying for five open bots here. We're going to talk about all of that. We're going to get to our picks. We're going to get to our props. We're going to get to our predictions. Benny Souls. How are you ready?

One last time, you know, you've been writing this new column all season long where you're trying to keep an eye on everything you see. Just one more week of doing that. And then you just focus on some playoff games. Oh, and the last hot read is going to have all pros and it's going to have a one. But I can pre-write two, thirds of this thing, bro.

We are chilling this weekend. It's going to be nice. But how about it? 20 teams, Sheal, still with playoff contention, viability, could make it, could change their seating. It's the most of any non-strike shortened season, I think, ever. I think it ties 2006, which part of the reason why they added the extra week, right, is because you kind of get a little bit more math in here.

You get a little bit more opportunity in here. But all together, a fun photo finish, right? The list of teams benching starters is like five, six teams long. It's a rare thing to have. A lot of meaningful week 18 football. You know me. I like to give kudos to the schedulers. You don't like it when I do this, but I like it.

I'm proud of them. This is a good setup. I was going to say, you've held off on that a little bit this year, probably because I yelled at you so much last year for giving the credit. Here's the thing. I just feel like one year I want to make the NFL schedule. It seems so interesting and so fun to me. So I just admired it from afar.

I'm a fan. I'm a fan of the schedule. There you go. Maybe next year, Roger. we know you listen. You know, let's all that in the room. Figures out for you. All right.

Let's get to it. Headliners. Like you mentioned, there's a lot of games with playoff implications, some obviously more important than others. What do you have for your headliner week 18? Yeah. Headline game for me is Texans Colts.

This is a game for it. Good. Different than mine. Right. And obviously, I mean, like Bill's Dolphins is an enormous game. And there's a ton of talk about there.

I'm really interested in Texans Colts because these are two of the most surprising teams this year and both them have gone up against pretty substantial diversity. Colts, obviously, I mean, like, the first thing I wrote about this NFL season was Anthony Richardson, man. Like, for me, coming at a week one, the storyline was holy smokes Anthony Richardson. Like, this is good enough to win. Good enough to win now. Like, okay, he's a raw player, we all thought, but this was clearly good enough running ability, throwing down the field. Like, he had it. He was checking the ball down. He was working underneath, like the stuff we were afraid of out of Florida, and then he goes down, and you're looking at this Colts roster with just like

massive turnover at linebacker and at cornerback and unknown edge rushers and an offensive line that dramatically underperformed last year and a Frank Reich firing into Jeff Saturday, and then Jonathan Taylor and the owner are tweeting at each other. And now Gardner Minshew has started. Like, it's every single part of this roster, there was a problem. And here Shane Steichen is at 9 and 7 having just by his bootstraps yanked this team up into contention, an unbelievable offensive coaching job, and the defensively, Gus Bradley, but just great work by first year coach Shane Steichen, the emergence of Zach Moss,

the improved player Bernard Raymond, the play of the offensive line, E.J. Speeds, I hear Franklin, the J. Juju Brent's just so many people contributing to this team out of nowhere. The Colts are very impressive. And then the Texans, where like, the Anthony Richardson thing was like, oh, cool, he can play. Like, he can make it. He seems like a project. It seems like he's a real guy. The C.J. Stroud thing was like, shoot, is he top 10? What the heck? Where did this come from?

A rookie season in terms of polish and poise and immediately delivering like you'd never seen Damico Ryan's who like Stuyken was like, wow, 2022 amazing. I loved Domingo for years. I've been waiting to see Damiko head coach team and it looked exactly like I thought I would. They're fired up and they're young and they're aggressive and they're hitting and they're tackling and you just have this young secondary and a linebacking core that's rotating and all these like, you know, I'm.

Island of lost toys, edge rushers that just all of a sudden amalgam into a real defense. Derek Barnett's having career football, dude. Derek Barnett! The Eagles couldn't get this kind of work. D'emico's got it work. It's just it. Both these teams have been something to see. And now here we are.

The winner of this game is going to the playoffs. There's a chance they're winning the AFC South. The loser of this game is out. Saturday night, prime time. Does not matter what happened the first 17 weeks of the season? Week 18. Put up or shut up in the division. Like this is what it's for, man.

Like, January, late January, early February, that's for like the contenders and the real teams and the whole season. This week is for like the teams that they just want to have a building block. They want to have something to grow off of. And the springboard that's offered you, if you make the playoffs as a first year head coach, you can prove to league free agents that, hey, we are legit over here. It is very substantial. So the stakes in Texans Colts are enormous. Is the team that wins this one in the Super Bowl? Probably not.

But it is very meaningful to both of these teams. It was interesting on both sides of the ball. The narratives are interesting. Can't wait to watch. Yeah, you framed it well based on where these teams were in the off season, where they were in week one. I mean, typically teams that have rookie starting quarterbacks stink that first season. Now, the Colts, obviously, like you said, Richardson gets injured, Minchu gets in there. But the Colts were a laughing stock.

I mean, so, like, how many pods did we do in the off season? We're just making fun of Jim Mersey and, like, what is going on with this franchise? Like, we spent many segments doing that. Listen, I stand by all of those takes, but to come in this season, and I had the under on the Colts coming into this year. I thought they were going to stink even if they had Richardson, because I was like, the guys played 13 college games. There's not a lot of talent around him. This is not going to be a quick turnaround. You just want to see flashes from him, but their record is probably going to be horrible.

And it hasn't been. They had an easy schedule, but they won those games. And now here they are positioned to potentially make the playoffs. And then, yeah, the Texans to me are different. The Texans are just like, I'm. I'm trying to think of teams that if I were a fan of them between week one and now, I would be like, you know, my scale would have gone from, I don't know, to like, oh, my gosh, the next eight years of my life are going to be amazing.

And the Texans have to be right up there, right? That Texans draft, man, when they went Stroud 2 and then traded up for Will Anderson 3, I was like, you are Solomon splitting the kid. You couldn't choose who to pick it two. Oh, yeah, I ripped them twice. Like, like, you got good. And I thought they got good players. I like, well, Anderson, I see your job.

but I was like, this is a mess, man. Like the front office doesn't agree. The coaching staff doesn't agree. I was very big on them not having Stroud as their top quarterback. I thought ownership was getting involved with that pick. I'm not even convinced that that's not what happened. It might be what happened. They just fell Bass-Ackwoods into it.

But that moment felt like, all right, this Texans year one is just going to be like, Nickasar is on his way out, Demiq's on his way in. We'll, you know, see if Tank Dell's good, and that'll be it. No, sir. I mean, they have hit on everything. Yeah, it's a good reminder. as we go into week 18 that we'll be ripping some of these teams for the way this played out. But sometimes, you know what, you just get lucky. Like, like Texans getting to

was probably the best thing that could have happened to him where they land CJ Stroud there if they weren't going to take him at number one. So I love this Stroud got healthy. I love that we get to see him in this game. I'm excited about this game, no doubt about a coltor one and a half point underdogs at home. So winner gets in, loser goes home. Now, if the Jaguars win, then the winner here is a wildcard team. If the Jaguars lose, then the winner here is the AFC South champ and could host or would host a playoff game in week one. So I got some stuff potentially tied to this game that we'll get to a little bit later. I do as well. Okay, so we'll circle back to it. And then the other big headliner, obviously, you mentioned it, I'll go with the obvious

pick, Bill's at Dolphins. This Bill's team, I went on my rant, what was it, three, four weeks ago, where I say, listen, sometimes the teams that have these long droughts, it's got to happen for them in a weird way. And I went on this long speech about the Buffalo Bills. Well, since then, they haven't exactly been like peaking or just going upward. I was hoping they were just going to keep going up and be hot when we got. I mean, they barely get by the Patriots last week, barely get by the Chargers the week before. And now you have this fascinating situation where with a win here, the bills are AFC East Champs, and they're going to be the two-seat. However, there is a scenario where this is their last game of the season.

If they lose here and the Steelers and the Jaguars win, and not only are the Bills not AFC East champs, they are not a wildcar team, they are out of the playoffs entirely. And to me, there's something so fitting about that for this Bill's season, where one week we're saying, what the heck is wrong with this team? And the next week I'm saying they're going to win the Super Bowl. Don't count them out. And that's how it still is all the way here in week 18.

So their defense, they fixed a lot of stuff on that side of the ball after that kind of midseason drought. Offense is kind of just, you know, statistically very good. But do you really trust it? They have this weird. Have you been following this Stefan Diggs thing? So he'll act like his playing time. Just the him not producing thing and him not playing?

Well, he's off the field a bunch. I mean, he's played this is an athlete. He played 66% of it. of the snaps last week? It's been three weeks in a row. The athletic wrote about this. Three weeks in a row where he's played under 60% of the snaps.

Now, one of those was a blowout against Dallas, but the other two were competitive games. And I remember back to that Eagles game where Tony, I think it was Romo calling that game where he's like, third down, Diggs is not on the field. And there's no, I mean, who knows what it is? It could be injury related. It could not be injury related.

There's no clarity about what's happening there. I mean, this is by far their number one. past catching option, and he's off the field two-thirds of the time in these key games. So that's on my radar a little bit. So I don't know where it's going to go with this Bill's team. And then the Dolphins we talked about on Monday show, you lose Bradley Chubb. You already lost Jalen Phillips. We're recording this Thursday night, Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle.

We're both out of practice on Thursday. I think Hill's probably more likely to play than Waddle, but that's still notable. Nonetheless, against playoff teams this year, Ben. the Miami Dolphins are one in four with a minus 84 point differential. They've played the fewest games against playoff opponents this season. And when they've been tested, for the most part, they haven't been good. So every time when they have one of these big games, I feel like I've often leaned to, well, I still believe in them.

I think they're going to come through here. And I keep getting burned by that time in and timeout. So bills are three point favorites in this game. Dolphins are already in. A win means they get the two seats. A loss means they get the six seed and a trip to Kansas City, which would be a pretty fun game. What are you looking for in this game? Bill's beat him earlier this season 48 to 20.

No, I do think that the fact that the Bill's offense did not improve under Joe Brady is a storyline that is just gone dramatically understated, right? We spend a lot of time with the Ken Dorsey bills saying, listen, they're turning the ball over a lot. But like, the numbers are good. The offense is good. Like, this is working well. And it was like, no, no, no, it was a problem. Offense is bad. Ken Dorsey, 10 games on the season.

Josh Allen had 52% success rate. 0.139. EPA for dropback 6.67 and just the net yards per attempt. All three of those numbers are down in six games with Joe Brady. Right. If you look at the overall offensive success, EPA per play is down, EPA for Drive is down. Pass success is down. Rush success is down.

Yards for play is down. Points for Drive is down. There's only one thing that's down and it's good news and that's turnover for drive. They went from 17% under Ken Dorsey to 9% to Joe Brady. It was turnovers. We knew it was turnovers when Ken Dorsey was still the OC and still turnovers now. But from a snap to snap perspective, this offense is not as good as it was with Ken Dorsey. Stefan Diggs, Stefan Diggs is not the sort of player you should have trouble utilizing.

He's like an elite one-on-one winner. Like, he's not a hard, how do we get Stefan Diggs activated? You just line them up somewhere where they can only play man. Put the other four guys the other side of the formation. Like this should not be a challenging thing. the bills offensively don't scare me as much as they did the last time they play the dolphins now they're they're desperate which then kind of heightens them back up right you're not expected very impassioned performance the uh the on the dolphin side of the ball the thing that interests me is

that tyreek hill and that that bill's game three catches 58 yards uh buddy there's not going to be any jel waddle in this game and tyreek is as is first team all pro receiver with a bullet he is potentially the offensive player of the year of christmas kaffir like he has been discussed as this unbelievable top tier wide receiver, and I believe every word of that, especially when I say it, I'm saying it with my chest. But one of the things about Tyreek is that the way the dolphins use him, if you scheme him out of things, the dolphins will oftentimes shrug and be like, shoot, time to throw it to Durham Swife, time to throw it to Stedrick Wilson. They can accept that way too easily, I think schematically. And in this game, with no wiler, you can't. If the

bills decide to take away Tyreek Hill, you have to decide to find a way to make Tyree Hill activate. Because if you lose this game because you over-targeted Braxton Berrios, you play yourself, right? That is unacceptable in this sort of environment. Star players make Star players on Star Days. This is one of those. And so Tyreek can't have that quiet of a game, especially with no Waddle.

And the bills are going to do everything they can't take them away. So you have to find a way to make Tyree the centerpiece of this offense. Yeah, I think I saw. I think it was Aaron Schatz who tweeted out that the bills in terms of defending the middle of the field are like top five in the NFL in DVOA. So, you know, with this Dolphins offense where you know where some of those kind of core foundation plays where they're going and to a throw into the spot, like regardless of what else is happening and the ball's coming out in 2.1, 2.2 seconds. And, hey, it's worked a lot this season. But there have been those instances where, you know, it looks a little up and down. So we'll see if the dolphins can, I don't know if it's, it would be a signature win. I mean, if you beat the bills at home here to get the Tuesday. I mean, that's a big deal. We're now all of a sudden. to get to the Super Bowl, all you have to do is win one game potentially on the road. So yeah, that absolutely would be a signature winning man.

This Bill's thing, I wish I could tell you I was confident which way it was going to go. Nothing would surprise. If we're talking on Monday about the bills are out of the playoffs, like I'm sorry, that's just not going to surprise me. If we're saying, holy cow, that performance, they can win this thing. That would not surprise me. It's just so fitting. It's really quite the, going back to the scheduling thing,

it's really quite the dice roll here. because they have this Bill's game be the last game. So there's a chance. Like if the bills know that the Jags lose, then the bills know for a fact going into this game, they're making the playoffs, right? Obviously, you still want to win the division. There's still high stakes.

I acknowledge that. But I'll be very sad if we get this game and the bills know for sure they're making the playoffs. I would have loved for the bills to have to play this game Saturday at 8 o'clock, blind, right? You don't, a loss might mean you can't meet the playoffs. I want that reek of desperation. They took it from us.

The bills are going to know. and that does disappoint me. It's so true. Yeah, that would have been better. Why'd they do this? I don't know why they did that. See, this is why I think about Shields. That's what I spend my time on.

On the other hand, man, can you imagine if the Steelers and Jaguars win and then the bills? That's why it's a dice roll. If they lose, you're out of here. Oh my gosh, that would be fun. So we'll see what happens there. All right, those are the two headliners.

Take a quick break. We'll get back to what we're talking about on Monday morning. The NFL regular the season is wrapping up, but there's still time to get in on the action with Fandle. America's number one sports book. Right now, new customers get $150 in bonus bets guaranteed when you place a $5 bet.

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Must be 21 plus and present in select states. $5 pregame money wage required. First online real money wager only $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt. See terms at sportsbook.fandle.com. All right. We're back on extra point taken. You could take this in like 400 million directions given that it's not only is at week 18,

but it is the, you know, it's the Monday is going to be the day where coaches are going to start getting fired. GMs are potentially going to start getting fired and there's going to be so much talk about all these non-playoff teams. So what are you going with? Monday morning storyline. What's everyone talking about? Bears head coach Matt Iberflux saves job by knocking Packers out of playoffs. I am so stoked for Bears Packers. I don't think I'm going to actually end up picking this game later. I think, like, I think this is maybe the most even game of the entire slate. I think that it's going to be a very highly charged game. The Packers are not accustomed to lose it, all right?

The Matt LaFleur, this, this unit, this group, not accustomed to not making the playoffs. They know they're young. They know they're not making a run this year. But trust me, it is very meaningful to that room, that building, if they make it back to the playoffs. That matters, all right? And for Joe Barry, especially, I think it really matters, right? So Packers are, they're pushing.

But for the Bears now, this might be your last game with Justin Pills as a quarterback. Matt Aberfus might be your last game coach in the team, and you didn't make the playoffs this year. And there's a lot of reasons, you know, lost games early and games that you could have won, right? The Bears have lost, the Bears and the Ravens have both lost three games this year, which they had a win percentage of at least 75% in the fourth quarter. Both of them lead the league, right?

The Bears had plenty of opportunities to win some games. They gave away some dumb games. Shot yourself in the foot. You all set of fields injury in Beijing and whatever. Like a lot went down that you're not in the playoff race right now, But you can look yourself square in the mirror if you're on the Bears right now and say we're playing playoff caliber football.

They are. They are, they said they're seventh and weighted DVOA over the recent stretch. They're playing great ball. So no, you don't get the fight for the playoffs, but you know what you do get to do, which is like the playoffs, only a little bit worse,

but in some ways a little bit better. You get to knock a division rival out in their home stadium shield. And this is the Green Bay Packers, Aaron Rogers, I own the Bears, Lambo with discount double check belt nonsense. Okay? These two teams do not like each other,

which all division rivals don't, but this is serious. This is a big deal. And with so much on the line for Chicago, I think they're going to come out. And I think that there's been a lot of hype about these Packers. Ooh, Jordan Love. Ooh, look at the passing stats.

Wow, wow, wow. I think they're going to come out and play a nasty, tough game of football. Defensively, I think they're going to look real good against the way that Green Bay plays. Green Bay likes to throw the flats. Green Bay likes yards after the catch. This bear team likes to tackle.

They like to run up and hit. I think it's going to be a thunderous game. And in particular, I think that you're in, bears three point dogs, I think the bears are going to win it. And I think doing so is the cherry on top of a really strong audition for Matt Iberflus to say, hey, I can hold on to this job and I can build a winner here in Chicago. I'm not sure to work. First overall pick, defensive coach, I don't know, maybe get a different developer in. Bears have a lot of questions to answer over the off season. But this here may be in the last game of fields, last game of Iberflus.

I think they're going to want to go out with a bang. I think they beat the Packers. Now, do you think, so do you think Iber Fus needs it? Like, like, if they lose this game by, say, a touchdown, 10 points. Like, I think Eber Fluss is going to be back. I mean, I think he's done enough over the course of the season. And I'm with you. I don't, I'm not sold that, well, this is the guy to lead the bears for the next five years.

Nothing like that. But when you hire a coach and in his second year, he shows you a turnaround like this. Like you mentioned, they've been a top seven team in the NFL really for the second. They're five and two in their last seven games. games and their two losses have been a total of eight points to the Browns and the Lions, two legit good teams. And so I think Iber Flues has absolutely earned the right to be back with this football team. So I actually, like, I don't think this game is going to have an impact, but I could be wrong. NFL teams do weird things. You think it does.

Firstly, right in the headline, which if I'm writing the headline on the Bears win, I'm writing the I'm writing the Ierfus headline. The other thing I would say is this, I don't disagree with your read. What I will say is that Kevin Warren, who is the previous Big Ten Commission, is now the CEO and president of the Bears. He inherited Iber Flues. He did not hire. How do I become a CEO or president of an NFL franchise? What's the career path?

That sounds fun. Yeah. I'll do a combo. Kevin Warren career path. We actually, you know what? We would work as a combo, So lack, because we can yell at each other and tell each other.

That's stupid. We're not doing that without worrying about the other person. That's what you need in these relationships. Yes. All right. So you have to go to Penn, which shout out Penn. and then you have to transfer to GCU,

get your bachelor's, Arizona State University, get your master's, Notre Dame, get your JD. What's that? Juris, is that doctor? I have no idea. I don't have an advanced degree. And then you head at the bar,

you practice law in Kansas and Michigan for a while, and then you join the Rams as a vice president of player programs at football legal counsel, vice president of football administration, senior vice president of business operations general counsel,

executive vice president of, of legal affairs and chief administrative officer, chief operating officer, and then you do the Big Ten thing for three years, and then you've gone the president and the CEO of the Bears. I mean, how does that make you more qualified than hosting an award-winning NFL podcast? We haven't won any of a voice. But I would go ahead. No more, we're not host anymore.

We're executive vice hosts of podcast affairs and chief podcasting officers. That's what we are. It's the title. You got to bump it up. You have to make it sound like a ball off. All right. I interrupted you. What were you saying about Kevin Warren or inherited Matt Eberflut.

and whenever a guy inherits a guy and it's a 50-50 thing, I tend to lean on the side if he's gonna out of the out of your own coach and bring in a new guy that's his. So I think that Iber Fus has done enough before this game to warrant keeping his job. I do think that winning this game

and knocking the Packers out of the playoffs will matter. The Lions did it last year and it mattered to that team a ton. Ask the division champion Lions right now how much that game mattered, week 18, nothing on the line, but we ain't letting the Packers go. Like, that's a meaningful moment for them. I think it's meaningful for the bears.

The Warren thing is what makes it a little bit corkscrewy for me. Okay. Uh, I like that one. Now, are you picking, you're not picking, are you picking Bill's dolphins later in the show or no?

No. What side are you leaning then? Let's get that out of the way. It's Bill's minus three. Yeah. Injuries for the dolphins make this really tough. Minus two and a half now. Wow.

I best say, it's moved to minus two, it's moved to two and a half. It was one and a half. I want to say when the week started, don't quote me on that. Blinds move a lot in week 18. I lean dolphins.

I think that the dolphins are a better team overall than the bills. The lack of Waddle and the lack of Raheemoster, which is how this is looking right now, I think is, is damaging. This is a really big game for Mike McDaniel. You didn't get a lot of praise, Michael, feather in your cap right now,

win the division while you're short-handed, right? And really shorthand it wouldn't you consider the offensive line injuries? So I lean dolphins plus two and a half. I'm also at a position where, like, I have a lot of preseason, you know, I expected the dolphins to win the division. And so I'm looking at this game now and being like, am I just kind of reaffirming my priors and saying, I like the Dolphins preseason.

I want them to win the division. And so I'm leaning on them that way. And that's why I won't be picking this game at all. I won't be touching it. So I lean dolphins, but it's a tricky one. Yeah, I do not want to, I'm not picking this game either. I've got bills minus two and a half now. And I turned in my column.

It was minus three. I like that minus two and a half a little bit better. I still believe in the Dolphins team, but they've just hurt my feelings too many times against these playoff teams. Like I need, I just need to see it a little more before I believe it and the injuries and everything. And the way the bills played them the first time, I've got bills there. What about Colts Texans? Are you picking that as one of your locks? I will be picking that later of the show. All right. So there you go. I think we know which way you're leaning. Yeah. All right. My Monday morning and you've got the Bears use. I may be touching the Bears

Packers game for my locks. I haven't decided yet. So I'm not going to tell you when I'm picking there. But yeah. All right. My Monday morning storyline. really just wanted to bring this to light. So the storyline is Broncos Raiders determines final playoff spot in the AFC. Are you aware of this? Yes. Yes. And neither one of them care. It's so funny. Tell me, tell me, tell me, tell me. All right. So shout out to Danes, who I've been, he's got great playoff scenarios. I've been retweeting those. So he pointed this out. So here's the scenario. If the Steelers lose Saturday to the Ravens and the Jaguars lose in the early window Sunday to the Titans.

Broncos Raiders by way of tie break determines which of those two teams, the Steelers or the Jaguars, gets a playoff spot. Broncos and Raiders, they're not competing for a playoff spot. They're out. But the winner of that game determines

whether it'll be the Steelers or the Jaguars. So if the Broncos win, the Steelers get in. If the Raiders win, the Jaguars get in. So good. fun. This is in the late afternoon window on Sunday. We have a game that right now looks meaningless where you could have Steelers watching this on their TVs, Jaguars watching this on their TV,

saying pulling for either one of those teams, the Broncos or the Raiders. Again, Steelers would be pulling for the Broncos, Jaguars would be pulling for the Raiders to determine which of them is getting a chance to play in the postseason. So I don't know if that's going to happen, but I was like we have to talk about this because it's the most fun scenario in week 18. And so that would be my Monday morning storyline. So there you go. All right. Dolai.

It is contest time. I actually haven't looked at this. I think you mopped the floor with me last week. But why don't you go ahead and tell me where we stand going in to week 18? Yes. I did retake the lead last week. Five points to your two in week 17. It was a pretty classic bet in shield week in terms of behavior.

Actually, that's not true. You didn't win your long shot this week, so decides that. Over 21 and a half rushing yards for Tyrod Taylor. Got out on the final drive. Big scramble to set up the Mason. The Mason Crosby game winner, which wasn't actually that. Huge win there. And then you had the Packers on the road, plus one and a half against the Vikings.

Nice, easy sleep for you on that one, in bed by halftime. But Rams on the road against the Giants. That was an ugly, ugly one there for the Rams. And then you had the dolphins on the road against the Ravens, which I forgot that you did that. And that was tough. That was a tough one. Your long shot, by the way, was 60 plus rushing guards for Jemir Gibbs.

And then Eagles to cover against the Cardinals. And here's an eagle's cover minus one and a half against the Cardinals is what it was. Alternate line didn't land for me. My long shot hit. The Bears covered minus five and a half against the Falcons and the 49ers won. Texans minus four and a half against the Titans hit. Broncos minus three and a charges hit. I was on the Rams with you.

We are paired, our shared ones have not been doing well recently. And then I had CJ Stroud to get over 264.5 passing yards. And on the pod, I said he's going to get to 230 early in the fourth quarter. They're going to stop throwing. He got the 2.13. Early in the fourth quarter, big game, he stopped throwing. I knew it was coming. Nothing to do about him to sit there and take it.

Five points on the week for me, two points on the week for you. I now have 53. You have 51. Against the spread shield, I'm hitting on 57%. You are hitting on 35%. Collectively, we are at 46%. props wise though you continue to mock before with me what's supposed to be my game i'm at 35 you're at 53 percent do you know i went 10 and six with my picks against the spread on the ringer

last week and two of the six losses i picked for this contest you got one and two i got i got back to above 500 picking every game i've made a comeback i'm two games over 500 going into week 18 and yet when i have to pick three that i like i am incapable of doing it it's driving me nuts but you know what, I like a week 18. So I'm feeling all right about a week 18. You like week 18? I like week 18. I hate handicapping week 18. I'll tell you my general thought on week 18 is I fade the teams with the most to play

for and I pick the teams who have nothing to play for. I think it's a good move. I think it's worked in past seasons. Let's see if it works this time around. Of course, this isn't the end of the contest. We're doing it into the playoffs. We'll settle on that. The final rules next week as we go into the wild car.

round, but we still got a lot of time left. We got multiple weeks with seven points at stake right now. Solex at 53. I'm at 51. All right, start us all. Prop of the week. What do you got? I like James Cook to have over 20 and a half receiving yards in this game against the dolphins. You're smiling at me. You are you also the same game. I thought we might have the same prop. We got the same game, not the same prop. There's props listed for about four total games right now because of all the unavailabilities and the injuries. Dolphins' third worst success rate in the league against running back targets since Jalen Ramsey came back to the lineup.

That's also a period of time which Jerome Baker, their linebacker, has been unavailable. So you got Duke Riley out there. You got David Long out there. They've been struggling against the backs. Just gave up 5 and 64 in the air to Justice Hill. A few weeks ago, 689 to Tai J. Spears. When they face a receiving back, they tend to lose to that player. James Cook was a huge part of the passing game for the bills.

Massive performances in big games. over the first few weeks of the Joe Brady experience, only one target in the last two weeks. And these two weeks have been the Chargers game and the Patriots game, both of which you would describe as disappointing offensive performances for the bills. I think there's a little bit of an inward look for the bills.

What are we wanting to do in week 18? Who are we going to ride? Who's brought us to this point? And James Cook through the air has been such a critical part of their offensive surge, right? Again, like I don't really think the Brady offensive been that much better, but that was a nice jolt in the arm. When you look at this Dolphins team,

they play with those deep zones, they want a blanket deep intermediate. media, the back is available for targets. So James Cook over 20 and a half receiving yards, running back receiving targets been great for me during the year, not been good for me on the pod. Week 18, we're going to get at least one of these, I promise you. Yeah, it's a good point on Cook. They were running like legit stuff with Cook. It wasn't just, you know, like checkdowns and screens. Like they were using him down the field and it would look like a real weapon for that. Yeah, and that's why I like the receiving yards a little bit more than the receptions.

Very typically when I go back, so I go receptions because I'm predicting targets. But in the case of cook, they give him an actual depth of target, right? They will throw him the ball down the field. In the first three weeks of the Joe Brady experience, he had receptions of 29, 27, and 24 yards. One in each game, those were his longest. One of those gets me over the number, right? They used him as an explosive guy. Yeah, against the Eagles, seven targets, against the chiefs, five targets, against the Cowboys, three targets. And then against the Chargers two weeks ago, nothing against the Patriots, only three targets. He's fallen out of the passing game. And really, for no reason. I think they get him reactivated this week. Yeah, 20 and a half.

half, he needs just one, like you said, if it's a downfield completion. All right, I've got the same game. I've got the same team. I've got the same side of the ball. I'm going Josh Allen over 36 and a half rushing yard. Big game Josh rushing. It never fails. I mean, listen, he's going to put on the cape at some point for better or worse. I just need a couple big runs, whether designed, whether option, whether scrambles. He's had eight or more rushes in four of the last five games. So you feel like, He's probably going to get opportunities. There's going to be a lot on the line. He's going to go superhero mode at some point where we're going, oh, my gosh, Josh Allen's

the best player in the NFL. Or we're going, oh, my gosh, what was Josh Allen thinking with that play? That's why I love watching Josh Allen play football. You never know which one it's going to be. But this is not a conservative, you know, take what the defense gives you. Check it down game for Josh Allen. Come on. We know that that's not coming.

Dolphins, as we mentioned, are down two-edge defenders. lose contain or something. He gets outside on a big run, and we know he can break tackles. He doesn't need to just go down and slide. So 36.5, seemed like a reasonable number. That's what I went with there. I was looking at your boy, Justin Fields, a little bit.

I will say, do you have him coming up later or no with anything? I do not. Okay. Yeah, I was looking at that, I mean, that Packers defense. Like Bryce Young looked awesome against them. Tommy Cutlets looked awesome against them. Fields has a 51.5. rushing yards.

Now, that's like a, that's a sizable number. That's not like that. I mean, but I say, I would go over if I had to pick and then it's 203.5 passing yards where my goodness, the Packers sometimes make it so easy to complete passes.

So I was, I was looking at those. The problem is, yeah. The problem is that the Khalil Herbert handoff is going to look real great. It's going to do well for the, for the bears. And you just worry about the dropback volume you get.

The Bears have shown if a handoff game works, they'll just keep on hitting it. Right. Against the Packers? it'll play. It'll play for sure. There you go. All right. Next up is long shot of the week. So prop of the week is worth one point. Locks of the week, which are just against the spread.

We pick three of those. They're worth one point. And then the long shot, again, it's the Kapadia Solak long shot. We know it's not a big long shot in the gambling community. It's the long shot for us. It's got to be plus 150 or more. That's worth three points. What do you got? Titans Moneyline plus 160. All right. Firstly, old school. I want Colts Texans to be for the division.

That would be fun for me. I am emotionally rooting for that. I acknowledge it. Secondly, Trevor Lawrence. All right, quarterback for the Jaguars, didn't play last week. Shoulder injury and his throwing shoulder. Did not throw earlier in the week through on Thursday practice. Jaguars beats got some video.

I would not describe this as encouraging throwing shield. It wasn't throwing. It was more like, I don't like the way it looked. From what I understand, they're very much preparing for CJB. Bethard to start and they're hoping crossing fingers that Trevor Lawrence is able to start. It's kind of like prepare for the worst scenario, I hope for the best. Even if we get Lawrence, because remember, this is an important game for the Jaguars. They want to win this for sure.

Even if we get Lawrence, I think we're going to get a limited Lawrence. And I think we've seen a limited Lawrence for a lot of the last month, month half of the season. He has accrued a lot of injury, knee injury, an ankle injury, concussion. And now the shoulder, he is just, he's dramatically below 100%. Most NFL players, this point of the season are at 85, 90%, I think he's somewhere in the 6070. man, he's banged up. And then you have this Titans team in just like classic Brable spoiler position, right?

They're just a small favorite to a divisional team at home. It's just a bravally spot and Will Levis Ryan Tannahill? It's unclear if Levis is going to be able to play. There's a chance that's Ryan Tannhill and what's very evidently, very obviously Ryan Tannhill's last game is a Titan.

Like he was asked about it this week. Like if this is my last game as a Titan, which probably is, I want to go out this way. You know, I want to be competing and attacking and contending. this reeks of Titans causing problems. They've caused too many problems for me not to know what it reeks of and it reeks of this. So Titans' money line plus 160.

I think we're going to get C.J. Bethard in this game and I think I'm going to get good bang for my buck just on line value. Even if we get Lawrence, I still think the Titans are a very live dog because of the problems that they love to cause. So for me, Titans plus 160, sweet and simple here in week 18. Titans are three and a half point favorites. I pick the Titans plus three and a half point underdogs. Underdogs, sorry. I picked the Titans plus three and a half in my column. Listen, I cannot figure this Jaguar.

I don't think I've gotten a Jaguars game right all season long. They come out last week, win 26-0-0. It's not even a game. Part of me is like, wait, is it like, will Doug, will they coach better if it's C.J. Bethard? Like, that's Doug, kind of been Doug Peterson's calling card over the course of his career. You don't know if it's going to be like the defense. I don't know, but I'm with you.

I will say this. I didn't realize this until earlier today. the Titans are 5 and 18 in their last 23 games. They go back to last year. They lost what, the last seven in a row and then this season. So that is like a long stretch of pretty bad football, but I still, I'll always ride with Braybill as a home dog, I guess a divisional opponent and think that it's going to work out for me in the end.

Wow. So this is, I remember first week we did this, I had Rams money line against the Seahawks for this and I won that. And then you got me on all the weird stuff, which I'm about to do something weird. Now you end the regular season and you just go straight money line for a three and a half point dog. We're switching roles here. Unbelievable. It's, if it weren't to make the AFC South in contention, I probably wouldn't take it, but I want it. I want the mess. I believe in the mess. I want the Titans go in.

The Jaguar scenario is a win gives them the AFC South. If they lose, they can still get in with a Steelers loss, a Broncos loss, as I mentioned earlier. and Texans Colts doesn't end in a tie. So they can kind of backdoor their way in, even if they lose this football game. It took us like, what, 40 minutes to get into the pod, not mention tie scenarios. Oh, give me a week 18 tie. Give it to me, mess up everybody's spreadsheets.

I love it. All right, my long shot of the week. You didn't hit on CJ Stroud last, but I'm liking CJ Stroud to put up some passing yards in this game. So I'm doing a little split. That's so lacking, brought to my attention earlier in the season. I'm going, CJ Stroud, 275 plus passag yards. That's plus 122.

And then we're going to Landover, Maryland. And we're taking the Cowboys with an alternate spread of just minus two and a half, just win by a field. Last time you did this. I didn't learn my lesson. I didn't learn my lesson. I did the same thing last week. It was a disaster. But that's minus 720.

So that gets you to plus 152. So again, DJ Stroud, 275 plus passing yards. Cowboys got a cover by two and a half at the Washington commanders. I'm looking at that Colts defense. Aiden O'Connell threw for 302 against him last week. Jake Browning threw for 282 against them in week 14. Derek Carr threw for 309 against him. Stroud in his second career NFL game threw for 385 against him in week two.

We know what they are. They're predictable. They're not hard to prepare for. you know where the weaknesses are going to be in coverage, and they're not that talented. I would actually argue that given all those things, Gus Bradley has done a fine, like they're not an underperforming unit.

I agree. Yeah, I think he's in a fine job. They're bad and also impressive. Don't ask me to park. Yeah, they're mediocre. They're mediocre. I would agree with, now they have played a lot of bad quarterbacks,

but still. So there you go. And the Cowboys are 13 and a half point favorites. Just need them to win by a field goal, right? That's going to happen, right? It's not going to be like last week with the Eagles. So there you go. That gets me to plus.

152. Yeah. I like that a lot. I, uh, yeah, I'll be on that Texans line straight up. And a big part of it is how that that offense matches up against that defense. Uh, I think it's going to be fireworks from the Texans offense. All right. Let's take one more break.

We'll come back. We'll do our nonsense predictions. And then we'll get to our locks of the week. I'm looking at my doc in front of me. I got one, two, three, four, five games. Please, shield for the love of God, pick three good games from this. Don't pick the three wrong games. All right, we'll get to that when we come back.

All right. We are back on extra point taking. What do you got for our nonsense prediction? Are you predicting a tie? Are you predicting a coach just somebody retires at halftime? A coach exits in the field. What do you got for us? The first four offensive plays from the Los Angeles Rams are Pukukkah targets.

For those who aren't following this, what do you think? What do you think I was going to say? No, I don't know. What is it? is he trying to break a record? So there are two rookie records at stake for Pukua. With four receptions, he will break the rookie record. He's at 101.

The record stands at 104. The rookie receiving record, he needs 29 yards to break, all right? Bill Groman, good old Willie Groman. He has held this record since 1960, which means that when Bill Gromon set the rookie receiving record, we didn't know what the moon felt like yet, okay? There's been a long time that his record's been standing.

Sean McVeigh came out and Sean McVeigh loves to rest starters. That's it for the whole preseason, right? He was like, yep, Dapford's going to rest. Cups going to rest. Karen Williams is going to rest. We're going to rest a bunch of starters. And they were like, are you rested Puka?

And he was like, I will see. They are very aware of what is at stake for Puka Nakua in terms of the record books. And I think they'd like to get in, get the record, and get out. I think they'd like to get a first drive Pooka Nakua

four catches, 30 yards. You'll stand on the bench, brother. Congratulations. You're the new record holder. And so the player incentives and player records is always a very fun thing to track in week 18, right? Sam Laporta needs 217 yards to set the rookie 10 record. It's like all sorts of stuff like this. But the Puka one is very clearly at the front of the Rams mind,

given who they're sitting and who they're not sitting. And I think that you're going to see Carson Wentz throw a couple bubble screens right away to Puka. We know the objective going into this game. We like to get Pooka the record. God, that's playing with fire. I mean, if something happens, imagine. Well, I was going to ask you,

that's why when you said bubble screens, because I was wondering, what's like the safe, do you just like try to run a go route or something and just like, all right, you know, but that would get the yardage, but not the reception.

See, it's tricky. Right. You need four for 29 if you're going from both. And so to me, I'm starting with a little jet touch, all right? A little shotgun, put them in jet motion, just tap the ball forward.

Remember getting one of those? I'm going bubble. I'm going, Yeah, but if that bubble gets red, I mean, you could take a shot on the bubble. If the DB is lunging on that bad boy. I'm bringing three extra linemen into line of his receivers. Yeah, that's what you should do. Extra offensive linemen out wide, yes.

But seriously, though, I will be watching this with beta breath because it would be cool for the record to be said. 1960, man, it's been 63 years, 64 now. So that's something. But I will be holding your breath every single time, Puka. I mean, he's not going to get tackled, man. going out of balance every single time. Throw it to them at the boundary, slide, just get the record and get out.

As team CTC, I would say if it's an incentive and you're getting a little cash out of it, go ahead and do it. A little record, it's nice, but it's okay. You can be second most receptions and receiving yards. DeAndre Hopkins has three quarters of a million dollars on the line for this

Titans game, yeah. 250K for seven receptions, 250K for 39 receiving yards, 250K for two receiving touchdowns. of those are our discrete incentives for him. Interesting. All right. Big D. Hop game coming up.

Feed the Beast. Yeah, I wish I would have known that. I think they're going to get him those. All right. Mine is this. Some team is going to pay Sam Darnold to compete for a starting job next off season. Oh, no. Partially.

They're going to mention this game. They're going to say week 18 against the Rams, we turned on the film. And oh, man, what he did, that made us really excited about what he can still become. So, for those of you who don't know, Rams' 49ers, both sitting their starters. Rams have a wildcard spot locked up. 49ers have the top seat locked up. The weekend, this is legitimately exciting. Sam Darnold versus Carson wins.

I was thinking so that they should have flex this to 9.30 a.m. I know those are West Coast teams. So it would be 6.30 for them. Whatever. This is a game that we should all be waking up Sunday morning and wetting our beak a little bit early and just watching Darnold and Wentz. all you, all your online buddies, they're making jokes, making fun.

I mean, I might even go, I might even tweet for a game like that. Like that would be legitimately fun. He's going to be so excited. No, I don't know how to do that. But Donald versus Went, it's like,

you know, you look at the week 18 Slade and we're joking about, you know, what do we have to do for work? Well, you know, you're going to watch the teams that are in the playoffs.

But like, at some point, I will watch this game. I don't know if it'll be on a third TV or what, but like I do want to see how both of these players look. Wentz was just been out of the league all season until he signed with the Rams. Very weird. Darnold comes in for a little bit in that Ravens game and is throwing darts. The Darnold truthers are all out there. It looks pretty good.

So I don't know what team it'll be. The 49ers signed Darnold to one year, four and a half million dollar deal this last offseason to back up Purdy. He's 26 years old. You and I are not Darnold Truthers. But teams are wooed very easily. I mean, I remember Sam Bradford in his like seventh year, they were still talking about what he did at his pro day. And I'm like, guys, you have a little more evidence about the kind of player Dan Bradford is since that point. But you know how these teams operate. So I don't know what, Denver, maybe? Maybe you're, you know, I could, couldn't you see that? That's the one when I was down. I'm just like, man, I could see that. Just Denver, hey, bring him in one year, you know, $6 million and give him a shot to compete there. Atlanta, I don't know,

Atlanta has to do something. I don't know who it's going to be. It would be funny if I've made this Carson wins, that someone did that. But I thought, I was like, let's make it a little, little realistic. And so I went with Donald. So there you go. I was, I was thinking about that in terms of potential like playoff moment. I was like, what if like, you know, Purdy gets like, Purdy gets banged up, you know, Stinger again, he's got to go down. He's got out for a couple of drives the end of a game. And Donald comes in just six for eight, 77, leaves a field goal drive. Niners win the divisional round against the Cowboys. Everybody's like, man, Sam really stepped up there for those nice leadership maturity. He's growing.

I was thinking about a playoff one, but yeah, week 18 against the Rams. I mean, do it, dude. It should be trick shots the whole game. Just put up video game numbers. Even without, like, the top starters in, you're still throwing us a good receivers in a good system. Let the thing sing, Sam.

I'm excited to see it. All right, there you go. All right. Locks of the week. Lock them up. I'm starting this time. I've got to change something up. All right.

I'm starting this week because there is one game that I like quite a bit. It's a game you may make fun of me for. It's a Saturday game. Think of remember what I said earlier. I like taking the teams with nothing to play for. I guess the teams with something to play for. And I'm looking at M&T Bank Stadium. Is it still called that?

I think it still called that in Baltimore. Steelers, four point favorites? Let me help refresh my fan to make sure. Oh, yeah, so far. Steelers are four point favorites going to Baltimore. Mark Jackson is not playing. Other key starters are not playing. But still, you have a roster.

Like, you can't sit everybody. I think people don't really, like, it's not like the preseason. You don't have 90 guys on the roster. Somebody has to play. And the Steelers, the Ravens have been playing backups, like, for a bunch of this season in key spots. And what's part of the story of their season is how prepared the backups have been on this football team.

Quarterback, Tyler Huntley? It's not like you got somebody who's never played football before. Tyler Huntley was starting for this team in a playoff game. last year. So you got Huntley there. You got some good depth. I think you might get some weather in Baltimore. I was looking earlier, maybe some precipitation, some cold. Is Mason Rudolph really going to go on the road in Baltimore? I know it's their backhouse. They still have good players. They've got good coaches. Is he going to go on the road and just like pick apart the Baltimore Ravens? I don't think so. I don't know if the Ravens are going to win this game. I think

they could win this game, quite honestly. But it's a low over under. The total here is 30. and a half. I don't think we're expecting a lot of points. I like the Baltimore Ravens plus four on Saturday. The Tyler Huntley, the Baltimore backups against Mason Rudolph and the Pittsburgh dealers. There you go. That's my first pick. I agree. I think that the first of the point you made about the preseason's. No. So I'm not on it, but I do like, I do agree. The point you made by the preseason rosters is really important. Something the thing that people forget about. Oh, rest your starters. Can't rest all 22.

You could, but you can't. And you still got to address them. And then guys need to get out for a play, and they got to go in. So you might as well just, you know, play them as you play them and rotate guys in. Protect your Justin Baddibukies, protect your Judevian clownies, right? Star players, injured players. But like, Brandon Stevens is going to be out there. Like, there's not much you can do about too much of that.

You know what I'm saying? So that point's really important. And then Tyler Huntley, like, Huntley's one of the better backups in the league. And he has starting experience. And it is meaningful for Tyler Huntley. you're talking about oh, Sam Donald's going to trick a guy and investing in him, whatever. It's meaningful for Tyler Huntley to put good film out there, right?

You continue to do so. Now you've done it in two separate systems. I like that angle. I forgot about that angle. Yeah, that's true too. Yeah, you continue to say, hey, listen, go give me that Jacoby-Bresset deal, all right? I'm making QB2 money.

I'm making QB2 plus money now. Like, that's a very real thing for Huntley. And so I think that, yeah, I think that the Raven is going to be a lot different competition than people are expecting. Steelers, I think, are good enough to get it done. But yeah, the Mason Rudolph floor drop is coming, right? I mean, like, that trap throws opening at some point.

Maybe it's this week. Baltimore's a scheme is still a scheme. It's a tough scheme to face. Yeah. They're practicing those schemes. This is what they're going to throw out there. They're not just going to roll out there and play vanilla. So there you go, Ravens Plus 4.

All right. What's your first pick? What do you got? I'll stay on Saturday. Texas is minus one and a half. I like the way the Texas match up against the Colts. You brought up this a little bit earlier, but I talked about the stakes of this game and the emotions of this game.

X's and O's of this game, if you can get a 49ers offensive coaching tree against a Seattle defensive coaching tree, you take it. And that's Bobby Slovak against Gus Bradley. This offense was like, like this is a generalization, but it was almost literally built to beat this defense, right? Like, they love to play these cover three guys because they know all the rules,

and they know all the tricks, they know all the soft spots, and Gus Bradley knows that by now, and he'll do his best to account for it. But this, that first Colts game was the one really watching Shrower, where I was like, oh, this is all that in a bag of chips.

That was the game I did the play sheet on where I was just like, he's just ripping everything. Now, taxes are coming in hurt. Confirmed already by Demico Ryan's as we record on Thursday evening. John Granard, who's the leading stat getter,

out for this game. Noel Brown has been a good wide receiver for them out for this game. Obviously already no, no tank del, excuse me, at wide receiver. Robert Woods has been banged up. There's a chance that wide receiver room is Nico Collins,

Xavier Hutchinson, and John Metchie. And that's pretty much it that they got right now at wide receiver. I still like it. I especially like Nico Collins, so I think it's been such a great young player for them. I like their ability to get Singletary involved and Dalton Schultz involved. They can distribute the ball. They've been running it better than you expect recently.

And even without Grenard, I think they have the ability to get a good pass rush on Minchu and move Minchu off this spot. I think they won't lose to the running game. I don't think they're going to be. great against the running game. I think it'll be good enough against the running game where they're able to put the Colts into a negative pass script. And then it's, can Derek Singly win against Michael Pittman? I'm confident that he can. Can this pass rush and this coverage got a takeaway from

Minshu? I'm confident that they can. Like I said, I think you'll see big offense from the Texans and enough from the defense to sustain, especially if they get into a positive game script earlier. I think if the Texas could jump out to a lead, I think the Colts are not built to get back against a team like this. So Texans minus one and a half. It was plus one and a half earlier in the week. So it has flipped the line, which is a big deal. A lot of money, a lot of big money on the Texans. I do think that they win it and they win it handily. Minus one and a half is my first lock. There you go. I like that side as well. I'm on that side in the column. I mean, the Colts have jet. Like it wouldn't surprise me if the Colts kind of ugly

this up and somehow find a way. That's kind of been what they've done all season long. I think I mean, last week they just come up with two 50 yard plays out of nowhere. So they've done a good job scheming things up and kind of figuring it out as they go. But I'm with you. I think unless the Texans turn the football over, unless they have issues and protect. or whatever, I think they're going to do a good job moving the football and cover that number. All right. I'm looking at the rest of mine here. I'm trying to decide what do I go with?

I got four other games to choose from. I'm going to go to the town close to you, Ben Solac, and I'm going to go to Detroit and take the Lions minus three. It's moved down. It was minus three and a half earlier. It's down to minus three. three against the Minnesota Vikings. So lions playoff scenarios. Let me bring them up here.

They're most likely going to be the three seed. However, there's a chance that if they win this game and then the Eagles and the Cowboys lose in the late window, they get the two seat. So I feel like they're playing earlier. So you can't just like sit your stuff. It's a huge deal. I mean, if you get the two seed, now all of a sudden you get two home playoff games and you don't have to go on the road potentially until the NFC championship.

So I think you just have to play your guys in this game. I think they would have probably done that anyway coming off of that loss to the Cowboys. I like how they handled that. You know, they got their stuff out of the way after the game. And then Campbell was like, next day was like, all right, we got to move on. We didn't make enough plays here. I thought they showed a lot in that Cowboys game.

I mean, Jared Goff to throw the interception and then come back on the next drive and just pick that Cowboys defense apart. Like I thought that was a pretty big deal. He was great on that drive. They went down the field and they scored the touchdown. So I still like this Lions team quite a bit. I very much like this Lions team at home. And then you look at Minnesota, who is still technically alive for the playoff.

They're now going back to Nick Mullen. So they can get in with a win, a Packers loss, a Seahawks loss, and then either a Saints or a Bucks loss. So they need a lot of help, but crazy things happen in Week 18 sometimes. But the big thing to me, Ben, with this Vikings team, that I feel like their defense the past few weeks has lost some of its luster. I feel like Brian Flores was really trying to just scheme it up with a lack of talent on that side of the ball and has done a fantastic job all season long.

But I think if you look at the last three weeks, teams have been like, all right, we now know how to attack this. The Lions have played them already just a couple of weeks ago. So it's not like this is going to be brand new preparation. And so while I am a little afraid, because Nick Bullens did throw for 4-11 against this defense, like two weeks ago. say, yeah. Yeah, that does not make me happy, but a three-point line, I like the Lions at home

to cover that number. Yeah, the, uh, firstly, the Lions are going to play for, for the outs, right? Dan Campbell team, they're going to play and win it and want to be there for the two CD's made that clear. I do think, right, when you, when you go up against this Brian Flores defense, lost some of its speed, uh, when a defense is very complex, you want to get very simple, right? You just want to run the ball. You know, we're going to control the trenches.

You're going to move guys all around. We're just going to move you off the line of scrimmage. and very few teams to lead do that as well as the Lions do when they just decide, hey, we're just going to delete you up front and it's going to be a long day for you. They outsize this fight

being pretty substantially in the trenches and they've shown that they can just hand it off and dominate that way. I thought they'd do so against the Cowboys. They didn't, but in general, they've shown that they can do that. So the matchup is nice for them. The Nick Mullins thing is funny

and is, like, you got to worry. You have to worry about Nick throwing them back into this game. There's no reason for him not to do because at this point, It's just arbitrary. You're just going out there to do something.

The amount of Kevin O'Connell quarterback change has been unbelievable. Yeah, I would like this more if I had some Jaron Hall, if I had some Josh Dobbs, but it's Nick. You never know what you're going to get from the grab bag of Nick Mullins. Could be anything. That's true. It might not end up well for me. I like that I get it at minus three instead of three and a half there.

All right. Chonsu Gardner Johnson back for this team and Alie McNeil back for this team defensively. Lines get a little bit healthier on that unit. Nice. There you go. All right. What do you got? All right.

Pinch your nose, Sheal. Don't breathe in. You ready? Oh, no. Patriots minus one and a half against the Jets. So on my list, I was thinking about taking it for my next one. I'll have to decide now whether I switch it up or not. So expecting some snow up there in the Northeast,

expecting some winds, gusts of about 20, 25 miles per hour, which once we get Gus in that range, I start actually carrying about the weather effect in the game. The current total shield, Trevor Simeon versus Bailey, Zap me in the bad weather, 30 and a half points. Okay. Would it be the lowest NFL total, according to Action Network,

since Bears Steelers closed over under 30 on December 11th, 2005. Do you know who the quarterbacks in that game were? Give me the match of again, 2005. Bears Steelers, 2005. It obviously was not Ben Rafflesberger. I don't know who was it. I have no idea. It was Ben Rathelsberger and Kyle Orton.

Oh, okay. It was a Super Bowl attending Kyle. No, it was Rex Grossman for the Super Bowl. excuse me, it was Kyle Lauren who started substantial games and Ben Rosberg in a very long career. I went to look at the box score. It's just a regular, the regular teams. I don't know why they scored 30 total points though. They had the total on the nose. Anyway, it's 30 and a half points, extremely low scoring game expected. In bad weather, I like the Patriots ability to control the games, grab to get the turnovers, get the short fields, run the football a little bit more than I do

with the Jets. I think that while the Patriots have been far from pretty, far from aesthetically appealing joy bringing over the last month. They have been more competitive with Bailey Zaffey than they were with Mac Jones. They have been staying close in names. They've been staying tight in games, generating turnovers, winning a little bit more on special teams. If they could just stop trying to kick field goals and just go for it on fourth down, they could actually win a couple of these games.

So I like them to cover against the Jets. I especially like it because if Belichick wants to win every game because he's going for that, that all-time win record, total wins. And with a win, he ensures the Patriots don't get the two-seed. the number two overall pick, excuse me. And Belichick knows, I think, that he ain't around to make that number two overall pick if they get it. So he sure would like to win and on his way out the door, make sure they ain't getting the top two pick of one of these quarterbacks.

And so I do think that Belichick, this game is meaningful to him against the Jets especially. I like the minus one and a half in what will be a disgusting game to watch. But I will watch it with money on it, like the sick little man I am. I agree. I had that on my list. I'm not going to pick it because it's not good for content and I don't know what I'm doing anyway. But yeah, I'm like only one and a half.

Belichick potentially coaching his last. They've beaten the Jets 15 straight times. It's Trevor Simeon. The Jets are a one, two, three, Cancun team. I mean, they're going to be going straight from whatever, Logan to whatever their vacation destinations are. If Sala doesn't make them clean out their lockers on Monday. So, yeah, that one was surprised.

I thought that might get up to, you know, three or so. but I guess if it's going to be that low of and under that much of a low scoring game. Interesting implication here. You mentioned the draft pick. If the Patriots lose this game, we talked about this a little bit on Monday, and now it's getting a little more buzz.

If the Patriots and commanders both lose their games, it's going to come down to a host of other matchups here. I think I saw somewhere that there's 32 potential outcomes. And in 20 of them, the commanders get the second pick, and in 12 of them, the Patriots get the second pick. So the one that I saw shared, which was a couple of days ago now, it was the commanders get the pick in 20 of them. And another five, the Patriots get it. And then in seven, it comes down to a coin flip, which I don't know if that's accurate or not.

This entire thing is very confusing me. I think there was a follow-up that said there's not going to be a coin. There's not going to be a coin flip because, yeah, I forget what the reason was. But yeah, I believe that was right. Well, yeah. All it first, me and Sheel, watching film, looking at contracts, evaluating coaches, schedule machinations. or beyond somebody else's job. And we tried so hard to get it right this week.

It's impossibly detailed. I look into it. I get overwhelmed. I can't do it. Well, all I know is this. If somehow it came down to a coin flip to who gets a draft Drake, May, and who doesn't, I would have lost my mind laughing. That would have been unbelievable content.

I'm devastated. We're not getting it. Yeah, I think it's because the commanders beat the Patriots that there is no coin flip, that those scenarios end up going to the Patriots. So that's a nice little twist there. But I like that pick. Patriots. minus one and a half.

All right, my last one, I'm debating between two here. Now, are you taking the, are you taking the bears with your final pick, or was that just? They're on my list. I can take them if you like for me,

I'm debating between, now is it three or is it three and a half as we record this? Because it was, I like to quote. As we record, it's three. As we record, it's three. All right, so I'm going to let you. You know what?

I feel like you've, you've been on the bears, very early. You've done a great job. You're taking their alternate lines. You deserve the bears. If you want them, you don't have to take them, but I want that option open to you. I don't want you to say, shield took the bears.

I'm going to take something else. I'm going to talk about holding your nose. Let's go to this Chiefs Chargers game. Chargers are three and a half point favorites against the Chiefs. I don't blame. Blaine Gabbardt can't get them within three points against that crappy Chargers team. Get out of here. No one's watching this.

I'm watching this game. I'm taking the Chiefs plus three and a half. Come on. Andy Reid's going to have Blaine Gabbard prepared for that game. That Chargers team, they're not just. just going to win one for GIF and blow out the Chiefs? They stink. They're going to be going on vacation right after this game.

So I know the Chiefs are playing their backups. Again, you're looking at that saying, oh, they're playing their backups. You've got to take the other team. No, no, no, no. That's the week 18 trap. Stay away from the Week 18 trap. I'm going with the Kansas City Chiefs plus three and a half as my final pick. And you wonder why I suck it.

It's for picks like that. The absolute disdain. the indignation with which you said, Blaine Gabbard can't get three and a half as if it's like a very unreasonable thing to be doubting. I'm complimenting him. Yeah, come on. You're just saying,

you were like, you were, no, that's saying you were offended for him. The disrespect to Blaine Gabbard. Yeah, it's Blaine Gabbard, Sheel. God be with you on that pick.

I didn't even give a second thought to this game. No analysis, no awareness of who's like. Yeah, we don't need to spend any more time on it. All right. All right, I'm not going to take the Bears, actually. lot. Yeah. It's one of the things where you'll know what you want to do when you get there.

The other one that I have written down is Raiders minus two and a half at home against the Broncos, which I'm going to take. I like that one too. It boils down to one very simple thing. This team loves Antonio. They really, really do. Devante Adams up at the press conference this week, I've made it clear that I want Pierce Pierce is my guy. That is the most influential player on this team. Max Crosby. I was going to say by far. I think he sold his most influential because of the the money and the train, whatever, but this is your offensive leader, this is your star offensive player saying, I hated playing for the other guy.

I love playing for this guy. I want this to be my guy. Every win is going to help emphasize that to ownership. I think that they are not a one, two, three, Cancun team. I think they are a one, two, three, let's win for Antonio team. This might be our last game playing for him, interim head coach, so on and so forth.

And then on the other side, you have not the exact opposite sensation, but you have an opposite sensation in Sean Payton, where it's like, hey, we just kind of really publicly told the media that the coaching staff was trying to give up on this team after like a four out of five game winning. Like they were winning games and the front office and the coaching staff were going to the quarterback being like, hey, can you waive your injury guarantees so we can bench you? Like that to me reeks of one, two, three cancun. That to me, reach like, okay, well, like, let's just finish the season and get out of here

because they already moved on when we were around 500, right? They weren't even engaged with us then. And so to me, this is a nice Raiders spot, which going to your earlier point, huge news for Jaguars fans in the event of a, right? If the Raiders win, it helps the Jags in the weird outcome, I'm pretty sure it is. All together, though, I think the impassioned win for Pierce is what I expect here. I like the Raiders to cover two and a half. I like the Raiders too. I picked the Raiders in my column there.

And yes, the Jaguars in that scenario were both the Steelers and the Jaguars lose. The Jaguars are getting with the Raiders. I took the Titans. I took the Titans money line, but I took the Raiders against the spread. Through the implied Raiders win. So they backdoor their way into the playoffs. There you go. Yeah, I like that one quite a bit.

I think your read on that is absolutely correct. All right. Zola, give us the recap before we sign off. What do you got here? Seven points on the line. Solek with a two point lean going into week 18. Give us your pick. Yeah, I think that the Texans are going to cover minus one and a half.

I think the Raiders are going to cover minus two and a half. I think the Patriots are going to cover minus one and a half. All field goals for Ben. Everybody win by three, we're doing great. Those are my locks of the week. I do have the Titans as my long shot of the week, like I said, plus 160, winning that game outright against the Jaguars by whomever they are quarterbacked. And my problem of the week is James Cook running back for the bills over 20 and a half receiving yard.

All right. I've got Ravens plus four against Pittsburgh. Just give me that one. I don't need to get anything else right. I want to be right on that one. Ravens plus four against the Steelers. Lions minus three at home against the Vikings and then the Chiefs and your boy

I'm taking Blaine Gabbard and Tyler Huntley and you wonder why I can't get picks against the spread right. I've got Chiefs plus three and a half against the Chargers. My prop of the week, I've got Josh Allen over 36.5 rushing yards and long shot of the week.

DJ Stroud give me 275 passing yards and Cowboys cover minus two and a half. So there you go. Those are the picks for Week 18. This is exciting. It's exciting to put this one like, you're closing the book. And then next time we come on,

Solac, Monday, we're going to be talking head coach hirings and firings and GMs and playoff matchups and all sorts of fun stuff. And then next week, that's going to be a fun show. We'll have all these picks for Wild Card Weekend. All right. Thank you to Ben Solac. Thank you to Cliff Augustine for producing.

Thanks to Eduardo Ocampo for his wonderful video production. Additional production supervision. by Connor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgopal. Next up, Nora and Stephen on dual threat recapping all of the week 18 action on Sunday night. Solek and I will be back on Monday to get to everything else that's happening around the NFL. Have a great weekend. Enjoy the games. We'll talk to you next week on extra point take. Boss 221 plus and present in select states, Fandle is offering online sports wager in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC. Gambling problem, call 1-800 gambler or visit fandle.com.

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