The Ringer NFL Show - NFL Week 5 Picks, Props and Predictions! | Extra Point Taken

Episode Date: October 6, 2023

The Bears finally snapped their 14-game losing streak! Ben and Sheil discuss DJ Moore’s historic game. Which team has more pressure on them this week between the 49ers and Cowboys? Plus, Monday Morning Headlines, picks of the week, and more nonsense predictions. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please check out theringer.com/RG to find out more, or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Sheil Kapadia and Ben Solak Producer: Cliff Augustin Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Musical Elements: Devon Renaldo Social: Eduardo Ocampo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, everyone. This is Craig Horlebeck from the Ringer Fantasy Football Show. Join me, Danny Fitts and Danny Kelly every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday to help you win your draft, win your league, and most importantly, avoid that last place punishment. Follow the Ringer Fantasy Football Show on Spotify. Welcome to Extra Point Taking Shield Kapadia here, joined by Ben Solac. It's week five. We just got finished watching the Chicago Bears and a 14 game losing. streak convincingly dropping 40 on the Washington commanders, a 40-20 win for the Bears. We'll talk a little bit about that game. Then we'll get to all the good stuff, our predictions,

our picks, our props, all that stuff for week five. Benny Souls, Bears, we got to start with a shout out to Bears fans. I mean, listen, you know, if you're a fan, you invest time, money, emotion in the teams you root for, and 14 losses in a row is no joke. Like, Most, if you're a fan of one of the other 31 teams, chances are you will never experience that in your lifetime watching your team lose 14 games in a row. So shout out to Bears fans. Everyone's making funny. You've been a laughing stock all season long. You get a night. You get a nice Thursday night where your quarterback plays well, where the wide receiver you traded for goes off where you hang on for a 20 point win.

Yeah. I thought the- I got to say about the bears, yeah. I thought the DJ Moore going off is the big thing, right? That's what you thought it was going to look like. Remember that, like, AJ Brown had a three touchdown game against the Steelers last season for the Eagles? You had that game and you were like, oh, dang, like, that's why they got the guy. This was the one for the Bears, which their own four, it's week five.

You know, been maybe nice to get a little sooner, but beggars can't be choosers a little bit. This is the game where you're like, okay, if he can look like that most of the time and the quarterback can look like this throwing it to him. Prime Vision put up the stats where Justin Fields right now is a perfect passer rating when he targets DJ Moore. Then like maybe we have something salvageable here on offense. Seeing that DJ Moore performance was, I thought, really, really big for the Bears, win or lose 40 points, 20 points.

Just seeing him play like that, that much passion, hyped up, ready to make big plays. That was cool. Yeah, it wasn't, it wasn't, not that there would be like a blukey 230-yard game, but that was like a legit, too. I mean, he was making plays, left and right, yards after the catch, leaving those D-Bs in the dust for Washington.

Emmanuel Forbes got benched there in the second half. Bears, 451 yards of offense, 18 first downs. They've come out, prepared, and jumped on their opponent two weeks in a row. I think you got to credit some coaching for that, at least. They blew it last week against the Broncos. They don't blow it this week. But they've been competitive, two weeks in a row.

And I know that's a low bar, but, man, after three weeks of the season, this did not look like it was going to be competitive team. This looked like it was going to be the worst or one of the worst teams in the NFL. So they get a W this week. They lose by our field goal last week. And now if you're a Bears fan, you can say, all right, you're giving me some reason to keep watching this football team. So nice job by them. And then, so, I mean, what do you say if you're a commander's fan? I mean, that's, that's embarrassing. Like, to come out the way you did on national TV at home against,

again, an opponent that hasn't won in their last 14 games and you get outscored 273 in in the first half. I mean, they were just sleepwalking through that first half. So that defense has a lot of issues. You know, it seems like the commanders, one year the defense is good. The next year, the defense is bad. They've had that thing going on for the last three years. And you would think with that defensive line, this would be a game where they would be able to, you know, put pressure on field, create some turnovers. They didn't do any of that. So, I mean, just an embarrassing loss for the commanders. So I was on Bears Plus Six in this game. This felt like, you know, you play a super tight, a game against your division rival, right?

And it's on the road and it's emotional and you have a tough loss. And then it's a quick turnaround to a really bad team. That's just a classic letdown spot. I thought it would be a little more rough and tumble, low scoring and defensive turnovers. Didn't have the bears jumping out to a 17 to nothing point lead. I'll tell you that. Would have bet the game a little differently.

But this, like, this felt like a let down spot for a commander's team that, like, I think is overperformed in the first four weeks of the season. and I think has to come a little bit back down to zero, a little bit back down to as expectation. Howell is a guy who like, Howell gets treated well, I think, in the highlight community and in the,

in the quick stacking, you know, look at this crazy throw, look at this tough throw community. He's got like that Baker Mayfield to him. But snap to snap, this is a tough guy to trust, man. It just, he makes three bad plays for every good one. And you got to be able to, like,

string together some real explosives, like actually put points on the board. You saw them like the second half of that Broncos game. Five weeks in a, of the season, I, like, I think there's been a lot of like, okay, Desmond Ritter's clearly not it for the Falcons, right? There's been very little of that for, like, Howell for the commanders. I struggle to get my head around a long-term starting look for Sam Howell here. No, I think Howell has, I mean, that comparison specifically, I think he's shown like 20 times

more than a... He's shown more than Ritter for sure. But I don't, I don't think I'm watching Howell and going like, all right, we're building with something here. Like, he's got some, like, Fitzmajoo to him. But other than that, like, like I said, he's a lot of, lot of negative plays right now in Sam Howell's game. I like him because he's entertaining and you know I'm team content and he doesn't bore me when I watch him play football and he goes for it. Funniest moment for me and then we can get to the games this weekend was when the guy just puts his body on the line for that scramble where he is just getting pinballed.

You can tell he probably needs oxygen after the play. I don't know how he gets up and, you know, they're what, two yards short of the fourth down marker, I think down by two touchdowns and Ron Rivera's like, all right, let's go, let's go kick I mean, if you're Sam Howl, you're like, couldn't you have told me you could kick the field goal before that? Like, I would not have done what I just did and nearly got decapitated by this bear's defense. So there you go. Commanders are two and three. Bears are one in four on the season. Relatively entered, I don't know, wasn't the most entertaining game. And ended up being a pro ral. First half was entertaining. Thursday had some juice. There were things happening that I wanted to watch. Points are being scored.

I agree with that. That's why bar for their season. at the NFL, we cleared it. I agree with that. All right, let's look ahead to Sunday and Monday and the matchups in the NFL in week five year. As always, we start with what is your headliner Benjamin Solac for week five? What do you got? It can't be anything but uh, uh, Cowboys Niners, man, can it? I mean, holy smokes. What a time. Exciting stuff. This game right now, uh, this is the Sunday night football game. Niners are favored by a field goal at home. It's pretty much saying, These teams are about even, and the Niners get the home field advantage here. Big thing to watch for for me in this game is when the Niners are holding the football.

This Niners offense is at this point just kind of shredding, right? I mean, they've scored at least 30 points in every single game. They are moving the ball at will on anybody and doing it in a variety of ways. Brandon Ayuk right now has 17 catches. 17 of them have gone for a first down or a touchdown. We like that. Wow. Right.

Chris McCaffrey's coming off of a four touchdown game. Brock parties coming off of a one incompletion game. You don't even like really hear people talking about this. They're kind of like, yeah, the Niners just doing what they do. You know, like it's, they are, are, like the Dolphins 70-point game, the bills against the dolphins. Like there have been some peak offensive performances that have been more impressive than the Niners. Week over week, this is the best offense.

There's two things to watch for when they play the Cowboys. The first is that this is Dan Quinn defense. Kyle Shanahan is very intimately familiar with Dan Quinn. Remember, they coached together for quite a while there in Atlanta. Kyle Shanhan's very, very good at beating a defense. Dan Quinn defense historically very successful against this coaching tree, this style of defense and against Dan Quinn. In particular, I like this stat a lot. Aaron Schatz had it previously football outsiders now of FTN. The Dallas Cowboys are currently number one in defensive DVOA versus

passes to the left and passes to the right. But if we know the Kyle Shanhanan offense, it wants to throw passes over the middle, right? They are number 27 versus passes up the middle in DVOA. So obviously a lot of that number comes with Trayvon Diggs playing ball and having him on They have the digs injuries. They're probably going to be a little bit more susceptible on the outside. But you can attack these linebackers and you can attack these safeties because the Dan Quinn defense asks those guys to play really fast, fill in their gaps. And you hit, played him with play action and throw over the middle of the field.

It's very familiar formula for Kyle Shanahan. I think this this cowboy's defense has to be able to get at least enough stops to keep the offense in place. Because there's a way that that the offense plays a great game, but the Niners just boat race them. The Niners just have so much gas offensively that it really isn't even as close as it feels. the defense can't buy a stop. So Dan Quinn's unit, that's the one I'm watching for this game. Yeah, I mean, to your point with the 49ers offense, I didn't watch that game live last week on Sunday.

That was one where I get caught up on Monday before we record extra point taken. And I look at the box door. And it was probably around noon Eastern time. And I had no idea of Brock Purdy had gone 20 for 21 in that game. I'm like, how do I not know this at noon on a Monday after watching football all day Sunday that he went 20 for 21 in that football? games. So you're right. I mean, they've had nine regular season games with Brock Purdy, and they've scored at least 30 and eight of them, eight out of nine regular season games. And so they are just clicking. They are the offense this year that you say, man, this looks pretty easy for them week in and week out here. Now, I will say that playoff game last year, that was a 1912 game, right? So,

you know, now the 49ers did settle for some field goals in that game. I think they put up a decent number of yards in that game, but, you know, the Cowboys held them to under 20 points, which is, as I just said, very hard to do. So that's going to be fun to me, like, zooming out even further away from the matchup. It's just, this game means more to the Cowboys, in my opinion, than the 49ers. If the 49ers lose this game, I'm going to be like, all right, no big deal. They lost a game. They were undefeated. They've won. How many in a row? What are they at? Like 13 or 14 in a row? Regular season. Brock hasn't lost a start, right? It's a, it's a Yeah.

Yeah, so if we're talking about getting rid of that Eagles, Tennessee championship loss game, I mean, it's got to be like 13 out at this point. Yeah, in the regular season. So if they lose this, I'm not going, I would not panic if I were a Niners fan. Obviously, you want to win it. You want to stack those wins and get home field advantage.

To me, it's more about the Cowboys. I mean, they lose to the 49ers, two years in a row in the playoffs. This offseason, Mike McCarthy makes the move, you know, parts ways with Kellyn Moore, takes over the offense. he has the keys with Brian Schottenheimer by his side. Listen, through four weeks, it's worked out well for the Cowboys.

They had the one slip up against the Cardinals. Other than that, they've looked like one of the most dominant teams in the NFL. There are other three games. They've outscored their opponents, 108 to 13 in their three other games. I mean, legit Super Bowl contender type stuff here. But now you're facing the big boys. You're facing the competition. You're facing the team that kind of made you rethink what you want to do

because they knocked you out of the playoffs and prevented you from getting to the championship round for, what, 27 years in a row. Now the Cowboys haven't gotten past the divisional round. And so this was like the game, the team that made you rethink, do we need to do something to get us over that hump? And so to me, it means a little bit more, or maybe a lot more for the Cowboys than it does the 49ers. It does. And I think that you always like, it's always good news when you come into a game being like this is a really important game for us. because you expect a very spirited effort. It's also a little bit bad news.

Like, you're the Cowboys. Stop acting like a week five game as your Super Bowl, right? Now, then again, I imagine when we get that Niners, Eagles game, I think it's like late November, early December. The Niners are going to start acting like, that's their Super Bowl because we know the Niners are all fired up about that loss to the Eagles. And that's why you have this really tight group at the top of the NFC, and there starts to be some bad blood.

So it's cool because the spirited effort. It's also like, okay, like you're kind of doing a little bit of like a little brother, big brother thing. Like, a little brother really wants to beat Big Brother. and Big Brother doesn't really care. Like Big Brother's kind of moving on to different stuff. And I don't like that the Cowboys kind of have that short of a vision. I agree with you.

This has been a really impressive Cowboys team. I'm also just really interested to see, like, this Niners' defense is very clearly good. There's no question that they're good. They faced the Kenny Pickett Steelers, gave up seven points. The Daniel Jones, New York Giants and gave up 12 points. Then the Josh Dobbs Cardinals gave up 16 points. Now, the Cardinals, I think, are a little bit. Cardinals move the football.

Cardos moved the football on him very consistently last week. That was a 21-16 game in the third quarter and a big reason for that was, yeah, the 49ers definitely did not dominate that game defensively. Yeah, and then the Rams who lose 30 to 23, Sean McVeigh kicks the field goal at the end of the game to cover the spread, King.

But that's a game in which Matthew Stafford goes 34 for 55, 35, 307 yards, right? I know they have picks on him, right, and it's a high-volume game, but they were able to move the football. The Niners defense is definitely certainly 100% unquestionably good. I'm not questioning whether or not they're good. I am a little bit curious to see them get

tested by what I think is the best offense they've faced so far this season and comfortably the best offense they've faced. Like I said, they're going to generate turnovers. They're going to get stops. Like I have a lot more faith in them to do that and the Cowboys defense the other side of the ball. But it will be curious to just get this metal tested a little bit for them. This front is where they dominate. And the Cowboys offensive line has actually played, I think, really, really well to start the season when they've had some chuffling and had the tackle spots,

Kate Tyler Smith inside, and they've held their water. So trenches, big matchup when the Cowboys have the ball. Yeah, that side of the ball is, like this is how McCarthy will be judged on Sunday night, Monday morning. Like you said, it's week five. But I don't like to tell people that settle down because that's why we love the NFL, because we could have these conversations every week and overreact and go nuts to what just happened that week. But I mean, let's be honest, that Cowboys offense in last year's playoff, they scored one touchdown on 10 possessions. Like I said, it didn't take 30 points to win that game.

They needed 20 points to win that game and get past the 49ers. They couldn't do it. You know, that 49ers defense really got the better of them. And, you know, McCarthy made his comments in the offseason about the approach and all that. I mean, who knows how much of that is actually in practice when we get more, a bigger sample here this season. But to me, Mike McCarthy running the Cowboys offense against this 49ers defense. Like you said, is a good defense.

I don't know that it's like a juggernaut defense that, you know, you shouldn't have a chance against. I mean, if you're a Cowboys offense and you believe you're a top five offense, this is a game where I think you should be able to move the football and put some points up. I mean, they, listen, they faced the Jets in, what was that week two. I mean, the Jets statistically might not have a great defense, but are still a very talented, a very good defense. And they played well against the Jets. So, you know, the Patriots, again, that was, I know they lost people. in that game, but like, you should be able to move the football against this Niners, Niners defense.

Worth for marking. Yeah, I just checked the injury news. Left tackle, Tyrant Smith and centered Tyler Beaudish both expected to go for this game, which means that the Cowboys would have their starting offensive line all five for the first time this season up against the Niners. Could have come in a better time, buddy. Full strength now. And like I said, like that unit, I think has been really impressive working around their

injuries, like hiding to Mo Dogo as best they can. and shuffling along the inside. Now it's like, all right, this is the group that you intended to come into the season with. Be nice to see them win against this Niners front. That number is three and a half, by the way. I was about to ask you what your, what you're, band all.

It's, yeah, it's three and a half, not three. 49ers favored by three and a half on. I said, I said, like, a field goal. I said like, generally. I said a field goal. That's big, Ben, three and three and a half an hour world. Come on.

Yeah, it's like a whole different world. I picked the Niners in this game. I'm basically like, until I see their, their offense get slowed down. I'm just going to go ahead and go with them. They're at home. They've been very good at home against the spread over the last stretch here. So I've got the Niners.

It's not one of my picks that'll come at the end. I don't know if it's one of yours. Otherwise, what side would you lean towards? It is not what of mine. And I lead Niners. This is a game that I... It's a tough one. This is a game that like, usually when I approach a slate, I like look through the games.

I see where I have an early lean. I'll look through some numbers and then I'll like pick some games to go after. I spent a long time prepping this, this Cowboys Niners game to come away with a side. And then I was just like, I got nothing. Like they're just, they're two very, very good teams. I'll certainly have some action on this game since Sunday night football. I just don't think I'm going to have a lot of action on the, on the spread itself, because it's a tough matchup.

Looking ahead, the Niners are plus 240 to come out of the NFC. They're the favorites right now. Eagles are at plus 300 and the Cowboys are third at plus 450 to come out of the NFC. Last thing I'll say, another reason is a big game for the Cowboys is because your two games back of the Eagles potentially. If the Eagles win this week and you lose this week, you're two games back, which is not insurmountable. You still play them twice, but that NFC East is a spot where one team could win the division and be the one or two seed and the other team would be a wild card all the way down to the five seat. I mean, it's a totally different world for those two spots once you get into the postseason. All right.

Let's get to the Monday morning storyline we've said in the past. This could also be a Tuesday morning storyline if you want. This is just a, hey, what's something people are going to be talking about as they digest what happened in week five in the NFL? What do you got? I've got the rookie quarterbacks winning the AFC South as my day morning Helen. Oh, my goodness. Did you?

We did it? Which rookie QB is winning the AFC South is my life? This is pathetic. This is terrible. Yeah, this is what's it called hive mind? Yes. Group thing. Come on.

is terrible. That is mine also. This hasn't happened before. The powers that be at the ringer are going to hear this pond and like, shoot, we got to do it. We got to get Ben on with Nora. We got to get shield on with Stephen. We got to switch these guys up. They're getting too similar. We've had, we've had overlaps in our spread betting now twice, I want to say, and then this. Only twice. Yeah, that's not bad. That I can live with. This is, this is you could pick any storyline in the entire NFL, Benjamin. Come on. We got to do better than that. Too much. All right. So I'll set the table. You feel free to hop in whatever. We have right now an NFC

South that is entirely two and two, which I find to be hilarious. Not only is the NFC South all two and two, or excuse me, I'm saying the NFC South, I've said it the whole time, the AFC South, excuse me. The AFC South. Not only is the entire AFC South 2 and 2,

but the Colts right now have a point differential of minus 2. The Jaguars have a point differential of minus 2 and the Titans have a point differential of plus 2. So all of them are 500, three of the four teams are almost 500 in point different. The Texans for those who care

have a point differential plus 17 They're actually doing a pretty good job They're all two and two The Colts and the Titans play one another this week Colts are at home slight dogs Home dogs to the Titans which a line that I like a lot at plus two and a half of the Colts

The Jaguars are playing the bills In London on the road Question mark don't they've been there the whole time that's weird And then you have the Texans Who get the Atlanta Falcons If I'm picking my vibes off of what the records are

when we come out of Sunday, I see the Texas and the Colts being three and two. I see the Titans and the Jags being two and three. And after that result, right, we're going to have a positive win margin, rookie quarterbacks, Colts and the Texans. And both teams have more legitimacy than just like, oh, we're a feisty team. Like the Texans absolutely have legs offensively. Like I think this unit has now worked against different varieties of defenses, talented defenses.

They've been successful. And then defensively, they've dealt with injuries. They're not a great run defense. I'm a little bit worried about their matchup with the foul. But in general, they fly around, they hit, they're aggressive, they blitz when they get in the long and lately, this is a Demeco Ryan's defense. It still needs more tools, but it's got teeth to it. And then the Colts, the Colts kind of, their younger group, their more questionable

group is that offensive group where they don't have a lot of tools at the wide receiver position, Anthony Rich has to make up a lot of stuff. But holy smokes, man, that's second half, Anthony Richardson against the Rams. That had me believing in a higher power, dude. I mean, holy Moses. She'll, bring it in. That second half against the Rams, Manthy Richards, it was something else. You watched this film?

I feel like I accidentally shared my Google Doc with you or something, like my prep, my extra point taking prep here. I have literally written down here, Richardson completed 11 passes in that game, yet I came away thinking, all right, I'm in on this guy. I mean, the high level of plays that he was able to. I also, you know what? I'll also go a little like, you know, the Bill Simmons round and do the Bob. Body language.

Like, this guy is a competitive dude. Like, when he goes to, you can just see the look on his teammates' faces and the coaches. Like, everybody is just like, this is our guy. We're all behind him. And I think, like, this was the type of game that I kind of expected from Richardson coming into the season once we got to November. You know, I was like, he's so inexperienced. I love the flashes in college.

I'm not going to go all in on him because I can't, you know how I'm wired. I can't go in on a guy with 13 college starts, you know, who's 21 years old. that's just not in me to be like, this is the guy, he's going to be awesome. Yet I didn't go the other way. I was like, listen, I watched his top 25 plays from college, and I'm like, I absolutely see the upside. I don't know if he'll ever reach it. But to be at where he is now, five weeks into the season and the flash is already happening

and to have a second half, like, again, the first half was terrible. You could watch the first half and be like, they couldn't move the ball at all. They looked like the worst offense in the NFL. And that's true. But like, that's kind of, this is what you expect from a rookie quarterback. so to already see those flashes, and it's not the flashes of how he's, you know, running around and wow, he made a great play with its legs. He's like, oh my gosh, like Aaron Donald has him by the throat and he just unleashed one like 20 yards outside the numbers on the money. I mean,

these are plays that these are like 1% plays that on, you know, we can make a list of what quarterbacks in the NFL could make those plays and it probably doesn't go beyond five. So yeah, again, then I looked at the box where I go, oh, he went 11 for, no, I'm like, that must be wrong. He didn't go 11 for 20. All 11 plays were incredible. It's, I'm so glad. I'm so glad we got you to do that instead of me because if me, it just sounds like typical Ben hysteria.

But with you, it's like, okay, people trust, like, she actually has a level head. That film was unbelievable. If you are a Colts fan, if you are a member of the Colts office of coaching staff, you're walking around me and like, we got, it's like, it's like, I'm a fisherman. When you hook a big fish, you can tell it's a big fish right away. Like the second that the hook goes in, his mouth. They're like, oh, this is a lunker.

That's how I feel watching out, Richardson film. I was like, we got one. Like, we didn't just get a good quarterback. We might have, like, the guy. We might have a defining quarterback. We got to figure some stuff out. But the level of talent here, what he can do with the NFL level, like he says, rarified.

It is in an upper echelon. So anyway, I feel like maybe the Colts be the Titans and they'll be three and two. And we'll be excited about the Colts. The last thing I was going to say is, yeah, defensively, the Colts are rounded out unit. I thought this was going to be a shakeier group. They've lost some talent. Tomok-O-Turea step-Dubs. Franklin has stepped up. The outside corner, whose name I can never remember, the guy's numbers in the 30s, his name, he stepped up. They've got, they have pieces that have really risen to the plate when asked to do so. Gus Bradley is a solid defensive coordinator. They can rely on that unit to get them through the offenses up and down. So when the offense is clicking, they're tough team to face. So I like the Colts and I like the Texans. I think the Jags lose to the bills. And I think we're talking about these rookie quarterbacks stop the AFC South.

I mean, again, I don't even really feel like I need to add much. And to me, this is more of like, you know, In my direction, it's, this is absolutely not what I expected coming into the season. I'm like, Richardson's going to take time and that roster stinks. I'm like, Stroud doesn't have enough to work with. That's, you know, the Texans are not going to be good this year. And I am in the process of flipping those opinions. And then I look at the Jaguars. The Jaguars really frustrated me last week despite beating the Falcons. I mean, that offense is killing me right now. They're 25th in EPA per drive. I thought that was going to be a top five offense. So, yeah, I mean, they're big underdogs. Colts, Titans, I'm with you there. I like the Colts in that game.

And the Texans go to Atlanta as two-point underdogs. But you mentioned their point differential. I mean, you know, they've won their last two games by 44 points, the Houston Texans. Like that might sound like nothing. Like that's hard to do. Like, most teams will not do that this year when two games, like back-to-back games by 44 points. And they dropped 30 on the Steelers, and it wasn't a stinky 30 at all. Like, they paddled a little bit late, but they were moving the football.

Like, and that Steelers defense is for real, man. That was an eye-popping game. And that's with a banged-up offensive line. I mean, that's why I was given your boy Bobby Sloick, the love on Monday night. Like, this is hard to do to like rookie quarterback, banged up offensive line against good defense and you're dropping 30 on them. It was so funny to watch giant Seahawks on Monday night and have so many people like, oh, this Daniel Jones offensive line is killing him. And I was like, you should see this Texans offensive line. We've got a first year OC and a rookie quarterback, and they're slinging it.

Thank you. My long mantra of excuse makers versus, you know, coaches who figure it out because guess what? That's what the money's for is to figure it out when the chips are stacked against you. How are you going to get something from your team and give them a chance to win? So that's what I've got. Monday morning. We're talking three and two Colts and Texans, two and three Jaguars and Titans is a rookie QB going to win the AFC South. All right.

Let's take a quick break here. We'll come back. We'll recap where we are in our. extra point-taking contest and we'll get to some of our picks for this week. Snap into action this NFL season with Fandle, America's number one sportsbook. Right now, new customers get $200 in bonus bets, guaranteed when you place a $5 bet. That's $200 in bonus bets, win or lose. Later in the show, she'll and I will go through our locks that will preview for you.

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$10 first deposit required. Bonus issue does not withdrawable bonus bets that expires seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fandle.com. All right. We are back on extra point taken. Our boy, Ben Luke, is doing just a phenomenal job with the spreadsheet,

keeping track of our competition this season. He's got all kinds of stuff in there, but where do we rank, where do we stack up here overall through four weeks of the season? Yep. 3-3 last week, pretty much standard week for us there. So I'm at 14. You're at 12. Tight. Tight through four weeks. I like it. I swept blocks of the week for the second week in a row. Pretty cool. cool. Yes, sir. Do not take these. Don't take these locks of the weeks as strongly.

I feel good about two of them. And the third one, I was fishing a little bit. I had Vikings minus four against the Panthers, charged minus five and a half against the Raiders. I went back to the Chargers well, and they tried to screw me again in the fourth quarterman. And then I had Cowboys minus six and a half against the Patriots, which that was when we disagreed on.

And it went one direction pretty quick. That did not go my way. You won Jaguars minus three against the Falcons and Rams plus one and a half against the Colts. That one also, the Rams tried to pull the rug out from under you late. You had the Steelers, by the way,

minus three against the Texans. That was a tough one there. And then you are, what is it now, three for four on props of the week, under 71 and a half receiving your rights for Travis Kelsey. The Taylor Swift fade cashed.

Huge. The Swifties bumped it up. You know, just you can't get that analysis anywhere else. As Luke wrote in the spreadsheet, which again will share on social media,

I think I called that the stupidest bet that anyone has made on the podcast so far this season. And so Luke has a little category there that Sheila's one for one on predictions that he claims to be the stupidest bet that anyone has made on the podcast so far this season. So I think I'm going to have to make that a bit. When I pick something that I legitimately hate, I will give it that distinction. And Luke can keep track of how those are doing. Can I throw something fun at you? Yeah. James Cook.

I took over 57 and a half rushing yards, James Cook, against the Dolphins. He didn't even get close. I said maybe take his rushing attempts. He did go over on his rushing attempts if you got it at 11.5. He also went over on longest rush and also went over on rushing plus receiving yards. He went over on everything else you could possibly go over. Not rushing guards though. He like missed it by 30.

Yeah, but your reasoning was Latavius Murray. What did he rush for? Right? I mean, he had the big run. So your reasoning was as I was watching that game, I'm like, all right, they're doing kind of ball control here. They're balanced. This is a nice long drive. He just, yeah, he just didn't get.

It fell off. Anyway, so yeah, 14 to 12. As you said, Sheel, we're trying to get a combined work against the spread over 56%. That's our goal this year. Right now, we're at 63%. We had a nice jump up. Five and one combined on our locks of the week, our picks against the spread last week. And then this is a final reminder. Yeah, we obviously have our long shots of the week as well that we do every single week. My long shot was Lamar Jackson, bunch of rushing yards, did not come to fruition. Your long shot with Kirk Cousins, a lot of passing yards. Did not come to fruition. Shout out Kirk Cousins, 99 yards. pick six. Remember, I was debating between Josh Allen and Kirk Cousins. I went head over heart and it cost me because Josh Allen went over 300. That would have given me three points and the lead. Yeah. So listen, this is an all heart addition of extra point taken. For me, hold on. Don't sell yourself. The York picks again, you, so we each pick three locks every week. So like, you were hitting 75% of your locks against the spread so far through four weeks, again, including six. It's all about game selection because in contests where I'm like picking every single game against the spread, I'm below 500. But if I get, if I could select for both of us.

See, if I select my games, I'm good because I need to prep them. I need enough time to do so. And I can't be picking every single game against the spread. I have no idea how you do it. I have such respect for it. This is quite a role reversal. I mean, you, so you're 75% in your locks, which are just against the spread. I'm three for four out of props. You're like the prop master. We have to do something. Like, if you beat me, I think you write the picks against the square column. And I'll, and I'll, And I'll tweet. I'm not finished. I ain't doing that article every week.

You're the one who signed up for that, buddy. Let me finish. Okay, in case, you know, our lovely colleagues and editors like this idea. I just want to throw it out there. Dan could write picks against the spread column every week. And I could tweet out things like key to the game is Trevor Lawrence thrown for over 213 yards. That seems fair to me.

You know, we exchange those two things. We'll think about it. If you stay hot, just if you stay hot. All right. If we stay hot. Let's get to the good. It's up again. We'll do a prop of the week. We'll do three locks of the week. Those are each worth one point. And then we'll each do a long shot of the week. That has to be plus, what do we say? Plus 150 or longer? Plus 150 or longer. That's the money ball. That's worth three points. So you can get seven points in any given week. If you don't get the long shot, you can get a max of four points that week. All right, Benjamin, start us off with your prop. What do you got this week?

Eagles Rams, I have Matthew Stafford over 23 and a half completion. I like this quite a lot. You can't get exposure to the Rams passing offense, or excuse me, you can't get exposure to the Rams receiving props right now because we don't have official news on Cooper Cup. And so there's no Pook and a Cool lines, no Cooper Cup lines. But Cooper Cup is returning to practice. And he's pushing hard to play. Sean McFey had his little, you know, I'm reading off the prompter that he's limited,

but he's not really limited situation. We'll see if Cooper Cup can play. If he plays, this prop, I think, is in a great spot. Cooper Cup is a high volume, high catch percentage receiver. He joins Pooka Nakua, who is a high volume, high catch percentage receiver. The Eagles have given up in three or four games this year, 29, 31, and 35 completions because they're secondary in their back seven is banged up, is susceptible. And then they're often in positive game script for the Eagles.

That's a negative game script for the opponent. Quarterbacks can be throwing the football a lot. The one night they didn't was 15 to Baker Mayfield. There was rain, and it was also Baker Mayfield. You're worried about Stafford. He's a very aggressive thrower this year. He's thrown a lot down the field. He doesn't have a high completion percentage.

You're worried about that a little bit. You're worried about the offensive line surrendering. But even if we don't have Cup, we're in a good position for Stafford to hit this line. He's been over it twice. He was over it twice on at once. And the one time he was under it was when they blew out the Seahawks. I don't think they're going to blow out the Eagles. They're going to be a negative to neutral game script for most of this game,

which means they're going to be passing the football Eagles. Top run defense in the league right now. this is going to skew for a past heavy game trip for the Rams. That's if we don't get Cup. If we do get Cup, I think this line is pretty dramatically mispriced, just because I think you're going to see so many. I think there's a concern that Cups can take a lot of targets from Puka. He's going to take some, not too many.

I think you're going to see a lot of high percentage throws to the Rams against the Eagles. Over 24, excuse me, over 23 and a half completions. I like quite a bit. That's a great one. I mean, I love that one. You know, like the Eagles defense is having trouble. They've been banged up in the secondary.

They're having some miscommunications. James Bradbury's playing the slot. He's not as comfortable there as he is on the outside. The stuff you see the Eagles defense having trouble with stacks, bunches. I mean, these are things that Sean McVeigh is a master at. And so I think they're going to be able to scheme stuff up there to make plays in the past game. Anytime a quarterback faces the Eagles, my only worry is like, okay, there's an X percent chance that the Eagles pass rush just kills this guy.

And like they can't do anything. But that didn't happen last week with Sam Howell. and the Rams' offensive line is better than Washington's offensive line. Yeah, and my initial look was I was looking for passing yards, which is over to 69.5. And then as I got into it more, I was like, I think it's going to be a little bit more high percentage throws, a little bit quicker throws, and I leaned on completions. With that said, I don't think Stafford over longest pass, 35 and a half, is a bad bet at all. Because he's going to find bombs.

Like, this is Matthew Stafford and the Rams we're talking about. He's going to chuck it. So if you're worried about, oh, what if Stafford ends up being like a high, high depth of target guy in this game he doesn't get up that high. Go for a longest pass, I think it's a good bet as well. I like that one because Varell Edmonds was starting at safety for the Eagles

and the man is struggling. They do not have speed in the secondary and two to add well. He's going to go ahead. I'm debating between two. I've got one here highlighted. I'll get some input from you. See if you like one more than the other. One is going back to the well.

Now I lost on this one previously. over on a Bijan Robinson. I looked at it. I looked at it long. Okay. Okay. 77 and a half rushing yards. Bejianne Robinson is just like an amazing player. You watch him and you're just like, holy cow, this guy should probably touch the ball 30 times a game. He had 14 for 105 last week against the Jaguars, and that was like a breathtaking 105.

He's averaging six yards per carry on the season. You look at that Texans defense that the Falcons are facing. They've allowed 466 rushing yards, which is 19. So middle of the pack, but they're 28th in DVOA against the run. We talked about the Falcons in our show earlier this week. I think if you're Arthur Smith, you're saying we don't need to put too much on Desmond Ritter's plate, especially early in this game. If we can run the ball and just kind of gash these guys, let's go ahead and do that.

So the Falcons, like you've mentioned before, they're going to run the ball when they're behind, they're going to run the ball when they're ahead, they're going to run the ball when they're tied. We know they're going to run the ball. score neutral situations, however you want to look at it. So that's one that I have highlighted Bijan Robinson over 77.5. The other one I was looking at was Breece Hall over 60 and a half. Now, Breece Hall just hasn't had the workload that made me comfortable going all in. Now, Robert Salas said this week, hey, there's no pitch count on him.

I don't know if that's an indication that he's going to get the ball more, but the Broncos, I believe, have allowed like 700 rushing yards this season. They had that Dolphins game obviously in there. The Broncos defense stinks. And so if you could guarantee me like, honestly, 10, 11 carries from Brees Hall, I would feel really good about that. But I think because I'm a little unsure that I'm leaning towards Bichon Roberts. What do you think?

I feel stronger on the Bajon prop than I do on Brees. I like both of them. Jets are a team that I'm invested in that offense for this Sunday, which is not a thing I like saying, but it's the Broncos, it's the Broncos defense. Yeah. There's, there's room to be had. But I think Bejan is your better bet for volume. Like I said, I think that Texans defense has a lot to them schematically. They have a lot to them from a hustle perspective. They're also not a very big group. And Bejon can break tackle in the second level, turn on the jets. He can get a quarter of that prop on one run. He can get a third of that prop on one run. And you expect this to be a high,

a high volume game, a high ground and pound game. The only thing that scares me is game script, right? We saw the Texans jump onto the Steelers pretty quick. And I agree with you, like Smith will keep running it, but you do worry about how long he's been able to do that. Tyler Ljir, biting into the touches. So it wasn't my pick for my prop, but it was on my short list for the prop I was going to give on the show.

All right. We'll go with Bijan. That's my official one. Bejan, sorry, Bejan Robinson over 77.5 rushing yards. The last one I was kind of looking at here, so like Trevor Lawrence over one and a half touchdown. pass is, is plus 106. It's like, to me, I was like, well, if they're getting blown out, like he's got, I mean, I hate, I don't, their red zone offense, like, they haven't looked

good. Don't get me wrong in those high leverage situations, but I'm kind of like, if they're getting blown out, he's going to have to throw the ball. If they're winning the game, he's probably going to have to throw the ball. So that one caught my attention a little bit, but I did not go with it. I'll go with Robinson. No, no reason to go for a plus money prop and we only give out one point. Get yourself some juice. Exactly. Exactly. That's, that's just for the listeners. If they're looking and are saying, hey, um, you know, it's 9.30 or 630 or whatever time zone you're in on Sunday morning and I want a little juice on this game and you want to blame me for a bad pick, then go ahead and take over on Trevor Lawrence there.

All right. So those are our props of the week. Long shot of the week. I mean, this is really the one that I think will determine, like the long shots will determine who wins this contest, I think. It's such, I mean, three points for these bad boys. They're tough to hit, but what do you have has to be plus 150 or better. Yeah, I haven't hit a long shot in the last two weeks. I find that upsetting. So I've decided to hit one this week. This Dolphins Giants game is a fun one, yeah? Try to figure out how to handicap into. Dolphins 11.5 point favorites at the time of recording, I would be shocked if that's not

up to 12, 12.12 and a half by the time we get to Sunday. This Giants team has been very publicly bad on national television. This Dolphins team has been very obviously good at scoring points. So I think the sign is going to continue to jump and jump and jump and jump. Here's what I did. I took the Dolphins minus 10 and a half, which is naturally minus 1.1. 136. And then I took the under minus 51.5, which is naturally minus 194, and I parlayed those plus 159. Now, this looks like an overspot because of how much the dolphins are going to score. But first, I don't think the Giants are going to bring much points, many points to this contest, right? The Giants have been a completely feeble offense outside of the second half

against the Arizona Cardinals. Secondly, I think there's an expectation like, oh, well, even if the dolphins are in garbage time, they could just still, you know, they're going to drop points on guys like they did to the Broncos. They weren't trying to score points. It just accidentally happened, which very well could continue again, but that's not something that you put much stake into. It's not something that you believe on.

This total at 47.5 is just too high, which sounds crazy to say about a game where the dolphins are in it, and the Dolphins team total said at 31 points, but the Giants aren't going to contribute that much, and the dolphins are going to let off of the gas more dramatically than they did against the Broncos. Just out of virtue of when you let off the gas,

usually you stop scoring points. And they had accidentally two explosive touchdowns against Denver. So if I get that to 51 and a half, which 51 is a pretty key number, and then Dolphids minus 10 and a half, I can parlay those and get to plus 159. So I'm looking for the dolphins to jump out to a 28 to nothing lead and then everybody to chill for the second half. That's what I'd like to say. Yeah, the Giants three losses this year. They've scored 0, 12, and 3 points. So you got that going in your favor.

I think it's fair to not expect much from that offense. I will say this, that dolphins defense, now, I don't really love all the defensive metrics at this point in the season. And it's like, you know, they've had some garbage time stuff. But I do think that defense is not at the level that most people thought it was going to be coming into the season. Now, I don't know that the Giants are good enough for that to even matter. Like, are they going to really sustain drives against anyone? They have not done that yet this year. They've been a complete dumpster fire.

They've been outscored by more points than any other team in the NFL, as we mentioned. on the Monday show. So yeah, I mean, I thought now there is a scenario where what did you say, 51.5 is that the under? Like there's a, there is a scenario where the dolphins just, you know, take care of that by themselves. I'm going to be, that's not likely. The game is going to be 40 to 10 and the Jats are going to get the ball back with two and a half minutes. And Daniel Jones is still going to be out. And I'm going to be sweating bullets.

I can't wait. That's true. We know that, that he's going to be out there regardless, though. Okay. I like that one. You're a creative little fella. You know, all of these parlays and under. and that was like, where's he going?

I thought you were going to zag for a second when you go, listen, everyone's watched the giant stink on national TV. Everyone's watched the dolphins be good. I'm like, he's not doing something that's going to say, like the giants are going to be in this game. Giants are covering, baby, let's go. No chance. All right. All right.

Mine, you know what? I'm going to put this in one of the stupidest bets that anyone has made on this podcast so far this season category. I'm interested. I'm curious. I've got the Bengals with an alternate spread of mine. minus six and a half at Arizona. That is plus.

Bangles recovery. Plus 168. Listen, I know the Bengals have been a bad team. Obviously, we watched last week. The Titans killed them. This to me is a nice opponent at the perfect time. The Cardinals have been frisky, yes, but I think their defense stinks. I mean, last week, 49ers went up and down the field against them.

Again, I know the Bengals are not the 49ers, but through the first four weeks of the and the Bengals are 30th in defensive DVO. I mean, the 40, the, what's the am I talking about? The Cardinals, the Cardinals are 30th in defensive DVOA. I don't think that they can do to the Bengals what the Titans did to the Bengals last week. Now, this is some of the shield telling himself a story part of the segment. Joe Burrow said on Wednesday, this is the best his calf has felt after a game. Maybe it's nothing.

Listen. Joe Burrow is. Suspicious. Doubt, press X-a-doubt. Joe Burrow is a resilient guy. He has a history of coming through. This is not an opponent that should fluster them or pressure him consistently. I'm not telling you he's going to go off for 400 yards.

I'm saying they got to win by a touchdown. And so I feel like the Bengals offense is going to move the ball better in this game against that Cardinals' defense. Now, I do have concerns on the other side of the ball. We mentioned it, again, on the previous episode, that that Cardinals' offense is overachieving. Drew Petsing is doing nice things every week to scheme stuff up with Joshua Dobbs with that supporting cast. And so I could see a scenario where the Cardinals actually go up and down the field against this Bengals defense. That would not shock me. But this is just such a desperation spot for the Bengals.

I can't get all the way there with the Cardinals. I'll give them feisty. I'll give them frisky. I'll give them have overachieved my expectation. But again, I'm not asking the Bengals to win by like 21. Bengals got a win by cover six and a half, win by a touchdown, and it's plus 168. So there you go. I'm the only person in America taking an alternate line for this.

But if there's anything I know, it's when Shield buys the dip, he's usually right. Shield's really good at saying we've over. I don't know about that. I know you are. It's very funny because this look ahead line, right? When we were playing ball in week three looking ahead to week five, this will. I got to start looking at those. Send me a, send me like a text every, you know, like Friday.

shield look at reminder look at the look ahead lines we should we we I mean we could do it right now we six lines are available but whatever the cardinals were eight and a half point favorites uh I excuse me eight half point dogs excuse me eight half point dogs um it was something that a gambling buddy of mine pointed out to me I was looking for it and he was like hey this is an insane line like the cardinals should not be this big of dogs they've been legitimate and the bengals have been fake and then obviously uh cowboys play the nine or cardals play the dinners whatever bangles get deleted by the titans and all of a sudden this line reopens it like five and a half and then it gets to three. And so getting Bengals minus six and a half is not a bad

bet for the long shot because if you took that bet five days ago, would have been minus 110. And so you're just, again, buying into a market that you think's overreacted. It's a good bet. All right. Bengals come through for me. Come on. I've been a big supporter of yours. All right. Let's take one more break. We'll come back. We'll get to our nonsense prediction, which is not part of the contest. And then we finish with our locks of the week. All right. We are back on extra point taken. So like what was your, what was your,

what was your Zany prediction? It was something weird would happen. It was that there was going to be something like cancelable or memeable or sexually explicit accidentally on the Toy Story broadcast. And then at one point, there was a penalty that moved the offense backward. And the slinky dog that measured the first in 10,

started backing his cookies up to make it first in 20. And I got sent the gift like eight times. Thank you to every listener who clipped the slinky dog backing that thing up and sending it to me. I appreciate it. All right. There you go. what do you have for us this week?

Did you follow this Patrick Queen, Mike Tomlin thing that's going on? Patrick Queen quote, yeah, no, you see this? No, I have no idea. What's going on? Okay, so Patrick Queen, Ravens linebacker gave a quote at his press conference earlier today talking about something that Mike Tomlin told him when he was a rookie. Queen was talking about how meaningful the Steelers Raven's rivalry is. And he said, yeah, when I was a rookie, I ended up on the sideline.

on the Steelers sideline, and Tomlin was looking at me and he started yelling at me saying, you're not a Raven, you're not a Raven, you're not supposed to be there, you're not one of them. Which is a banana thing to say to a rookie. That's nice. Anyways, we said it according to Queen. And so Queen said that the Raven Steelers rivalry defines his experience as a Raven, and it defines every experience, every player for Raven, but it matters to him a little bit more, right? It gets him jacked a little bit.

I'm like in shock right now. I don't even know how to react to this. they were like, was how I'm joking? And Queen responded, I don't care if he was joking. I don't care if he was a serious. At the end of the day, I'm on your sideline. You're telling me I'm not a raven. That's kind of disrespectful.

Again, I don't know what that means, like at all. Like, he was like, Ravens have this sort of culture and you don't. Like, that's, well, that's, that's banana's trash talk from a head coach to a rookie. Yeah. You know what? It's weird because, yeah, no, the Ravens do have the whole thing, like, play like a raven. You know, that's, like, part of their thing. Like, the Mazzian Newsom to now, like, we are looking for a certain type of player.

And most of the time I think that stuff is nonsense. With the Ravens, I'm kind of like, oh, yeah. No, this guy fits them. Oh, yeah, this guy fits them. Like, it actually seems legit and they carry through with it when they pick players. But for Tomlin to say that, Tomlin's like kind of giving respect to what a Ravens player is while also disrespecting Queen. You know, so it's sort of weird.

He's like kind of complimenting the franchise. And here's the real funny thing, like with Circle of Trust real quick. If you had asked me during Queen's rookie season, does that kind of a lot of? I got played like a raven. He was. He didn't. I would have said, no. I just wouldn't have told him to his face.

Now, by the way, Queen's great now. Roquan fixed Queen. It's the coolest thing ever, regardless. Obviously, on extra point taken, we don't root for fights. Fights are bad. Don't fight. Peace, not war. With that said, I know me.

I know Sheel. We've talked about this before. We enjoy a good scuffle. We do. We enjoy a good... No one gets hurt. Yeah. A good brouhaha, good ruckus.

I don't. I don't want to see, you know, don't find any seventh round rookies who don't have the money for it. But I like a couple on sports with my conducts that turn into fines for like, you know, he yanked the guy's towel out of his waistband and smacked him across the head with it. Like, I'm into those shenanigans. So the bold prediction for Raven Steelers is we get one. We get a nice one bench clearing brawl with the other guys who'd come jogging over, some pushing some shove in, an injection or two, something nice and spicy.

Again, safety, peace, not war, but I do like a scrub. I do like a nice divisional ruckus, a little romp, and that's what I'm hoping for, Raven Steelers. No ejection. That would be my only thing. I don't know, no ejections. Okay. Yeah, no, I don't want any let the, but someone do something like weird, you know, like,

no, it doesn't hurt the person, but it's not quite dirty, but you're like, oh, come on, you're doing that, you know, like that. George Pickens once. When he was on the sidelines at Georgia, there's now the Steelers receiver, he had a Gatorade water bottle and a Georgia Tech player fell into the sideline. He just sprayed him with the Gatorade water bottle. Yeah, I like that. Something like that. He got a lot of trouble for that, but it was objectively funny. It's got a little George Bickens problem in there. I think it'll be great. Yeah, I like that. Steal something from the, yeah, that's a good one. I like, I'm glad you brought

that to my attention. I had no idea. That's so crazy. But I saw the call. I was like, I'm misunderstanding this, right? And no, I was understanding it. I just Googled like, did Solek get this completely wrong? This sounds so weird. You got it right. You know, that's weird, dude. I'm like, you know, back checking. All right. Mine is similar vein, but not really.

Okay. So I'm going to tell you that the Sean Payton, Nathaniel Hackett rivalry, delivers us with a moment. So it's, we're not just going to go through that, and everyone's going to say the right things, and nothing's going to happen and no confrontation. No, something is going to happen. For those of you saying, why?

If you remember, Sean Payton ripped Hackett in a USA Today article back in July, calling Hackett's performance last season one of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL? Not exactly inaccurate. But Peyton indicated, you know, he'll apologize to Hackett or something. Hackett said this week, no, that never happened.

He never heard from Sean Payton. So you can tell the Jets beatwriters as good beatwriters do are trying to get a little juice out of the locker room. Hey, what do you think about this? And guys are saying some stuff, it's not like inflammatory, but they're sort of like, yeah, we do want to win for Hackett and get some payback.

but they're not saying anything that's like over the top. So we thought this game was going to be, maybe a feisty Broncos team against Aaron Rogers and the Jets. It is not that. It is two, one, and three teams. It is Zach Wilson, to your point, Ben, going up against the worst defense in DVOA history, according to Aaron's shots through four games.

So they've got this database since 1981 that measures defensive performance, defensive efficiency through the first four games, and no team in that span has been worse than the 2023 Broncos. So I think we're going to get some kind of incident. Here are some examples. You tell me if any of, if you like any of these. Alan Lazard catches a touchdown and then moons Sean Peyton.

You know, kind of like bring the Randy Moss thing, you know, back except he's actually mooning him. He's asked my coach, I was with him in Green Bay. I'm with him with the Jets. You don't do that. All right. So that's why. maybe Robert Sala, a little pulls Peyton in during the post-game handshake, and he's smiling.

You know how the athletes and coaches are very good about kind of covering their mouths now so you can't read lips? There's nothing I love more than watching it. I think it's so great. They have the good frame. Especially if you think about that, that's a weird way to talk to somebody. Try to do that. Walk out to somebody and just start whispering directly into their neck.

It's such an interesting thing. I've read you also watch that because I watch it all the time. Oh, love that. But somehow, I don't know, there's a mic there or something. And he just says, hey, keep our name out of you. Oucha bleep-de-bleep mouth. We don't curse on this. You know, this is a family-friendly program.

My mom-mus. But, you know, yeah, you can be creative and think about what he might say. And then the last one, maybe the Jets win and Nathaniel Hackett enters the locker room. And you know, like, during the NCAA tournament, when a team pulls off the upset and the coach goes in the locker room and everyone sprays them with water bottles and they do this weird dance. And everyone goes, hey, hey, hey, yeah. And he's doing the day. Like that kind of thing, Nathaniel Hackett's doing that.

I heard of Washington you try to do the dance. That was a tough look. I didn't go 100% into it here. So something like that happens. That clip that ends up, you know, going viral. Nathaniel Hackett dancing in the middle of his team in the locker room. All right, what do you think?

Any of those? Do you like any of those? Is there something else you've got on your mind? Here's what I'm expecting. I'm expecting one of those 12, 25, or wait, this is a 4 o'clock game. I'm excited like, I'm watching Red Zone at like, 3.30. And then Scott brings me in. Scott's like, we have something to show you, not red zone in the

Broncos, Jets warming up. He always like, great surprise on Scott. He's always like, I've never seen it. But yeah, yeah, warming up. So, man, I didn't think of this. And that's where it's going to be, like, there's going to be, like, there's going to be, like, Lazzard on the sideline, like, talking to Sean Payton and like some Broncos, like defensive linemen's going to be, like, kind of half holding him. Like, dude, just like, relax. The warm it up, whatever. He's, like, pointing at him and yelling at him. And you know, Sean, Sean's going to be like, what, what are you Sean's not going to be diffusing the situation. Sean will be escalating the situation.

And then like Nate Hackett goes to get his guys. There's going to be some good performative pregame. We don't like you nonsense. That's what I think we're going to get. I love that. So much better than mine. I love that. I love that too.

I'm stealing yours from my. Okay, good. I love that too when there's the, you know, they're breaking in. You're like, why are they breaking into this? The game hasn't even started yet. And you're like, this is going to be good. When Scott brings me to a four-clock game at 320, I'm like, yo, what is up? Scott, what's happening?

Something great has just occurred. It could be someone stomping on a logo. It could be a little hold-me-back situation. It could be anything. So, all right, I like that one. So there you go. That's my nonsense prediction. All right.

Locks of the week. These are just picks against the spread. I've got my fan duel up here to make sure we've got the updated lines. What do you have, Benjamin? Yeah. One of my biggest spread prediction, biggest spread positions so far this season will be the Chiefs against the Vikings

minus three and a half. I took this line when it opened at five and a half. I did not think we would get movement down. We've got significant movement down. A lot of money coming in on the Vikings. I could not be more opposite this. The Vikings numbers right now defensively, which look quasi acceptable are a lie. It's a product of the quarterbacks that they've gotten to face. Baker Mayfield, Jalen Hertz, Justin Herbert, and then Bryce Young.

Three of those four quarterbacks, Baker, Hertz and Young, really, really, really susceptible to the Blitz. When this team tried to blitz Justin Herbert, he had one of the greatest quarterbacking games in NFL history, right? Completed 40 of 48 passes with a ludicrously successful game at that volume. If you go and you look at Patrick Mahomes' career history, this is not a guy you can blitz. When you blitz him, he becomes Patrick Mahomes 2.0. He becomes Patrick Mahomes ascended. He is perennially one of the top three, if not the top quarterback. against the Blitz in the league.

Flores cannot get away with playing the defense that he played against other quarterbacks that he played against the Chiefs here. And can you say, oh, well, they're going to blitz them. And it has to be hot reads. And he doesn't have enough communication with his receivers. It's not going to be an issue. It's never been an issue. The one thing that Mahomes, if there's something he beats even more dramatically

than just like the regular NFL defense, the Blitz heavy defense, I expect him to have a really, really, really good day through the air. I think the Chief is going to put a lot of points in the Vikings. You could argue that the Vikings are going to be able to keep pace offensively, right? Kirk Cousins and a lot of passing production. Steve Spagnolo tends to be pretty good handling other teams top wide receiver ones. You never are going to hold just Jefferson to a totally quiet day. But he's as good of a defense coordinator in the league as you have in getting brackets on guys,

getting two sets of eyes on guys, making somebody else beat you. And the Vikings yet to prove they can do that. I don't trust this running game to pound it against the Chiefs. That's typically how you see teams kind of control the game short in the clock. I think the Chiefs are a terrible master for the Vikings. I think that the Chiefs are in a by low spot right now with the game they had against the Jets. I absolutely love cheese minus three and a half against the Vikings. This was a tough one for me.

This is not one of my three. When I did my picks column, I looked at it. And this was one of sometimes I'll look at it and go, why is, like, why is the line like this? This seems like too easy for the Chiefs. I ended up taking the Vikings plus four on basically a coin flip. I'm just like, what is the real case for the Viking? You're getting the Chiefs at a pretty low number against the team we don't think is very good here. I think your reasoning is sound.

I mean, the one thing that the Vikings like to do every week is the thing that Patrick Mahomes just makes every opponent pay for. Like, no one goes into a game plan against Mahomes and he's like, we're going to blitz him down in and down out and get to him that way. Like he has consistently year and year out regardless of receivers, regardless of offensive coordinator, regardless of offensive line. He kills those teams consistently. So I like your reasoning. I took the other side, but I think what you said makes sense there. I don't feel comfortable on that one on either side. All right.

My first one. I'm going back to London. We're going early morning, get the coffee out. You know, you're saying, all right. If I'm watching this, I might as well do something on it. We took the Jaguars last week, minus three against the Falcons. That hit. I'm taking the other side this week.

Bills minus five and a half at Jacksonville. the one thing the Jaguars have going for them, I guess, is that they stayed in London, they played in London, they stayed in London, they're comfortable times on whatever. I don't know if that matters or not. I think these teams are, you know, relatively used to doing this at this point. That Jaguars game just left a bad taste in my mouth last week. I mean, they make everything feel so hard. It's like third and two, and it feels like third and 27 for them. There's all these, like, it feels like they're restricting Trevor Lawrence's ability. to showcase his natural talent with the way they play football. I'm like, he'll make a throw or a play and you're like, yes, more of that. And then all of a sudden, it's like a horizontal get the ball out of two yards on first and 10.

Like, no, no, why are we doing that? It hasn't worked. They've looked pretty uneven to me offensively. So far this season, like I said earlier, they're 25th in EPA per drive. Now, I still, I like the Jaguars coming into the season. I think there's chance at some point here in week eight or week nine. I'm coming on here saying,

And hey, Jaguars have figured it out. They look good. Watch out for them in the playoffs. But until that happens, I'm not ready to roll with them. And then you look at like the bills. I generally don't like taking teams that come off as big of a win as they had last week. You know, usually you're not going to get great value there. But, I mean, they've won their last three games by an average of 30 points.

They look like a juggernaut that can win in 400 different ways, explosive passing game, efficient passing game, run game, defense, you name it. They're well coached. And so I usually like Doug Peterson in an underdog role, though I'm going against some of the stuff I typically like here. I just think that number's low enough. It's under a touchdown. I don't think this Jaguars defense is going to slow down the bills.

I think if I lose this game, it's because Jaguars figure some things out offensively. Bills turn the football over, maybe a special team's thing in there. Again, those things are all possible. But I think on a down-to-down basis right now with the way they're playing, the bills are a significantly better team. I extremely agree with everything. I am not going to bet into the first back-to-back international game in NFL history until I know what's going on, right? That's the thing for me like...

Coward. Listen, from like a handicapping, betting, like what matters perspective, when one team has spent the entire week in the five-hour-a-head time zone and the other team hasn't, I usually want to be on the team that's been there for a week. for those who haven't followed the Jaguars travel plans as closely as Ben has, the Jaguars went to Atlanta, played in London, they stayed, and then the Bills just came over this past week. I'm at a spot where I think the Bills are the better team. I think the Bills are the better team by five and a half points.

I would be on the Bills if this game were being regularly played in a regular stadium. As it is, I'm very worried that we get a Bills' Dudd performance, right? You have a Super Bowl game against a division opponent, huge, emphatic win, and then all of a sudden you're off of body clock against the Jaguars team that shouldn't be that good, but oh, shoot, we let them hang around and Trevor Lawrence is shredding on us in the fourth quarter. Like, it's the squirrely one for me.

I don't like it. All right. There you go. What's your second game? Ravens minus four and a half against the Steelers. Now, I am aware. Maybe we are on opposite sides of everything this week. This is interesting. So, Ravens minus four and a half against the Steelers.

Here's a situation. These two teams last six times they played the Steelers have won five of the six games. I don't like that. the last, here are the scores of those most recent games. 16 to 13, 16 to 14, 16 to 13, 19 to 20, 14 to 16. I don't like any of this, all right? All of this is like Steelers win by less than three, right?

None of this feels good. Firstly, Kenny Pickett is expected to play. He was a full practice participant. But as they've talked about this, this bruise issue for Kennedy, they've talked a lot about pain management. I'm not sure that we're actually going to see 100% of Kenny Pickett as he comes out in the field next week. That's one thing for me.

The second thing is the injury to Alex Highsmith. Highsmith has been one of the most effective rushers in the league so far the season on a snap to snap basis. He's expected to be out this week with a groin injury, hasn't practiced it all this week. While the Ravens potentially maybe getting healthy, Rashad Bateman potentially coming back, Jalen Armour Davis coming. Jaylonarmer Davis got banged up, but he should be able to play in this game. Left tackle Ronnie Stanley potentially playing.

You've had limited practices from Marlon Humphrey. He might be able to get back. You've had Marcus Williams full practices off the peck injury. He might pay back for this game. We might actually see a couple of the players we thought the Ravens were going to employ this week. It's going to be crazy. I think the Ravens are getting healthy. I think the Steelers are dealing with some injury.

And then the Steelers defense. I'm suspicious of this group. The two top offenses that they faced, the Niners and then the Texans, did a good job against this unit. The Ravens have not been a dominant offense, but they've looked quite good on paper. And they've just been dealing with health problems. I think if you get a Rashad Bateman back on the field, you get a Romney Stanley back on the field. They should be able to move the ball pretty consistently

against a unit that is very turnover oriented, is very pressure oriented. They can create explosive plays, but on a snap-to-snap basis are surrendering some pretty significant yardage. I like the Ravens to be able to control this game. I like him at four and a half. That Ravens game last week,

like when I watched, re-watch that against the Browns, that was not like, hey, this is a Todd Monk and replaced Greg Roman. That was like, okay, Lamar Jackson can like just make, like he can just, regardless of scheme and it's exactly what I wrote about on Wednesday. So I was like, the scheme's not there yet, but good news. No, that was all about him. Yeah, I mean, he just came up with plays out of nowhere to lift them

to victory there. Honestly, my, my hesitation here was the same thing with the Chiefs. I'm like, the Ravens are, look like a much better team. The Steelers cannot score. They have an injured quarterback here. Should this line be a little bit higher? Now, these two teams have a very strange history with like Harbaugh versus Tomlin with the underdog covering the spread like over and over and over again. Tomlin has been an underdog against Harbaugh 15 times and the Steelers are 11, 2 and 2 against the spread in those 15 games. So to me, this was just a weird things happen when these two teams play. I absolutely trust the Ravens more and this could be one where the Ravens win the game. But I pick the Steelers in my column. But I will not pick the Steelers in this segment

until I see any like signs of that being an offense that I want to be sitting here on a Sunday afternoon or a Sunday or a Monday night going I'm glad I took the points with that team because right now you watch them and that is like a painful experience to watch that offense and to your point the defense has not been dominant either. This is this is so sad because I was really hoping to bait you into like an actual defense of the Steelers because I just wanted to come over the top and be like the side of the ball I didn't talk about is a Mike McDonald defense against the Matt Canada offense. I feel incredible, incredible about taking the Ravens side based off of that alone, right? Like, I talked a lot about

the offense. Defensively, I think it's one of the most creative and adjustment oriented game planners in the league defensively and Mike McDonald, I guess one of the most predictable and milk-toast offensive designers. I think I would not be surprised at the Steelers end this game with six offensive points. Now, they're probably going to score 14 points on defense that make me lose the bet, but I will feel good about the process because I think defensively the Raymans, they can sit on the Steelers team for four quarters, do so very, very dominant. Yeah, every bit of analysis, I think, leans towards your side on the Ravens. I just basically, Tomlin, Vrable, Harbaugh, I'm trying to think if there's anyone else in

there. Basically, if they're an underdog, I'm just like, they'll do something weird, they'll yuck this game up, they'll get a punt block, and they'll keep it close. It doesn't always work, but I feel like if I do that consistently over the course of the season, I'll come out on top there. I think you may like, based on what you said previously in this podcast, I think you might like my next side. I'm not sure if it's your third pick or not. I've got the Jets plus two at Denver. Is that your third one or no? I've got the Jets plus two at Denver. Okay, there you go. I thought based on you, when I hear you say you're in on like Jets offense stuff, I'm like, all right, then he has to like the Jets in this game if he's saying he's in. I mean,

the Jets are a more talented team. I don't know if Zach Wilson can build off of what he did against the Chiefs from last week. But as we've said earlier in this podcast, the Broncos have the worst defense in the NFL. Now, the Broncos offense has actually moved the ball better than people probably would think when you just look at it statistically. But against this Jets defense, which I still believe in, I don't think they're going to be putting up a lot of points. So the Jets are dogs in this game at Denver, a team that was so close to going 0-4 and Bray. breaking that bear streak before the commanders broke the bear streak tonight. I think the Jets still have a lot of good players.

I don't trust Wilson. I don't trust the offense. But again, they're plus two here against the team that I think is bad. I'm going to go ahead and take them. Yeah. So we have overlaps twice in our spread picks. We are one for two in such selections.

We had the big one then. Yeah, we had the Patriots on the road against the Jets on which we overlap. And that one we won. And then we were the same Broncos minus three and a half against the commanders. These two teams? Kind of. Yeah.

And that Broncos game, if you remember, they were up by several points. And we were feeling great. And it went down the gutter. This, by my power rankings, the Jets are a better team defensively by like a mile. That much is obvious. And then offensively, they're actually decently close. Like Russell Wilson looks great right now by EPA per play, right? They're getting explosives out of him.

But this offense tends to be really herky jerky and how they move the ball down the field. And Russ is really, really bad against pressure. and that's how the Jets beat you. I think that this is a big trench mismatch. And because of running back injuries, I don't think the Broncos are going to be able to go ball control, hand the ball off and kind of inch their way down the field the way that they would like to.

I wouldn't be surprised if you get some, you know, five play, 60-yard scoring drives out of the Broncos, but I don't think it's going to be a game where they can score the ball consistently. Accordingly, what you're betting on when you're betting on Jets Plus 2, here it comes, is Zach Wilson not to turn the football over, right? You're betting on Zach Wilson to not make. make the mistakes and give the Broncos the short field.

I don't love that I'm betting on that. But if the quarterback, and this is what went back to with Wilson last year, if he just placed mistake-free football, the judge should be able to outrun and out-defense the opponent. They should be able to control the game. So I like Jess plus two. When Wilson throws the third interception, I'm going to feel like an idiot.

It's not going to feel good. Yeah, it's not going to feel good taking Zach Wilson. Like at some point, you just want to take teams that you actually believe in. That was like my bills pick. I'm like, all right, I think the bills are really good. If they don't cover, it's okay. but at least I'm not, you know, betting on a quarterback what they stinks or anything like that.

But all right, my last one. I am going with a Monday nighter. I think my first Monday nighter of the year. I'm taking the Packers plus one at the Raiders. Packers last loss to the Lions in week four. I think the Lions are a very good team, maybe like a top eight team in the NFL. This one to me just came down to coaching.

I mean, Matt LaFleur has won 70% of his games as a head coach. Josh McDaniels has won like 37% of his games as a head coach. And I don't see any. And I really think the Packers are the more talented team. So I'm getting the more talented team. I'm getting the better coach team. And I'm getting plus one here. So Raiders are at home.

I get that, you know, DeVante Adams dealing with the shoulder injury. He didn't practice Thursday, but it sounds like he's going to play. We'll see what's up with Jimmy G. I think he was a limited practice participant on Thursday, but he's still in the concussion protocol. I can see a scenario where the,

The Raiders move the football against this Packers defense and they win the game, you know, if it's a close game. But I just, I really like Matt Lafleur to be able to scheme stuff up against this Raiders defense, which is one of the worst units in the NFL. So I've got Packers plus one as my final pick. The first prop I went to look for was Devante Adams receiving yards in the revenge game against this Packers team. Devante Jaire, okay, in the revenge game.

They would have had to set the line at 100 and a trillion for me not to bet at it. Okay? This is the game Devante has been living for. If he's, the problem is he's going to play. And if he plays at like 75%, it's not going to be the performance that I want. I'm going to be so disappointed. But yeah, I wish you could have a Devante Adams line. I'd be a lot of fun.

I agree the Packers are the more talented team. Jordan Love is entering the territory for me where I'm like, do I trust you enough to bet on you to kind of not hurt your team? team against the less talented team. I think the Raiders' defense is as toothless as it gets. And so you can feel good about him not making those mistakes. The Packers need to get Aaron Jones healthy. They need to get AJ DeL and activated. They need to get back to a little bit more of controlled game scripts and controlled offense, which they don't have a chance for against the Lions. The Raiders shouldn't jump out on them to an early lead, though. So I do like the bet. I'm only

interested in betting that game for Devante Adams lines, though. There you go. All right, give us your recap. Run down your picks here and then I'll go with mine. Chiefs, minus three and a half against the Vikings, Ravens minus four and a half against the Steelers, then Jets plus two against the Broncos. I like Matthew Stafford to go over 23 and a half completions, and I like the Dolphins to go

under 51.5 total points in the game and win by at least 10 and a half at plus 159. I love that one. I'm going to have to consult the spreadsheet before that Dolphins' Giants game to make sure I have it right to see if you hit there. All right, I've got Packers plus one at the Raiders.

Plus 2 at Denver. So like and I both have that one. And I've got Bills minus five and a half at Jacksonville. Bengals, alternate spread for the long shot. Minus six and a half. Come on, Joe, bro. Give me a touchdown win at Arizona. And then prop of the week, Bejohn Robinson over 77.5 rushing yards.

That's minus 114 on Vandal. All right. When Luke updates the spreadsheet, after he listens to the pod, We'll tweet that bad boy out so you can see it, have it accompany your games on Sunday if you want or want to make fun of us for terrible picks, which you could have done with me in like the second quarter of that Steelers Texans game last week when I was like, all right, I don't think I'm going to get this one this week. So we'll get that out to everyone.

Okay. Thank you to Benjamin Solek. Thank you to Cliff Augustine for producing. Thanks to Eduardo Ocampo for his video production, additional production supervision by Connor Nevins and Arjuna Ram Gopal. Next up, Nora and Stollachia. Stephen, Sunday night on dual threat on the feed, they'll recap all the week five games. So be sure to check that out. And Dolak and I will be back after Monday night football next week with

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