The Ringer NFL Show - NFL Week 6 Picks, Props and Predictions! | Extra Point Taken

Episode Date: October 13, 2023

The Chiefs got the win on TNF against the division rival Broncos, but is there real concern for how their offense has looked? Sheil and Ben discuss that and which matchups are the most interesting heading into Sunday. Plus, Monday Morning headlines, Prop of the Week, and Locks of the week! The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please check out theringer.com/RG to find out more, or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Sheil Kapadia and Ben Solak Producer: Cliff Augustin Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Musical Elements: Devon Renaldo Social: Eduardo Ocampo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, everyone. This is Craig Horlebeck from the Ringer Fantasy Football Show. Join me, Danny Hifetz, and Danny Kelly, every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday to help you win your draft, win your league, and most importantly, avoid that last place punishment. Follow the Ringer Fantasy Football Show on Spotify. Welcome to Extraborn Take and Shield Kapadia here joined by Ben Select. It is week six. Yes, week six. We're talking about what we're watching this weekend. We're making some picks. We're competing. And we're making. some predictions. Benny Souls, how you feel now off of that? Chiefs cover the 10 and a half on Thursday night. I'll be sweating a little bit with my first pick in my column on the ringer, but they cover the 10 and a half, win by 11 against the Broncos, never in doubt. Yeah, where are you at on Chiefs panic? I feel like everywhere I go, like, oh, like little radio hit, little, you know, talk, talk to league. There's always a question about like five weeks, say, like the Chiefs don't necessarily look like the Chiefs. I'm curious where your heads out on that. I actually have

legit concerns about just not about whether they're like they're going to win the division. They're going to be really good. They're probably going to be the in the AFC championship game. I'll say it this way. I think if the Chiefs lose in the playoffs without winning the Super Bowl will all look at it and go, well, what did they think was going to happen with this supporting cast for Patrick Mahomes and why did they build it this way? Like like I agree that Mahomes and Reed can make pretty much anything look good. We're seeing that now. That doesn't mean, and I feel like you and I've had this conversation about other teams. It's like, that doesn't mean you need to make it hard on yourself and make it this hard. So I actually, we'll talk about trade deadline stuff

on this podcast for sure. But I definitely would like to see them add some talent there where it doesn't always have to look this stuff. How about you? Where are you at? Yeah, I think I'm a little bit closer to being fine. I think that the way that you ensure that you have good receiver play in January is by putting a bunch of young guys out there in in different environments, right, in different rotations in October and September and you figure out, okay, who can do what and where can they do it. Like, I think that you do like what you've gotten from your receivers to this point? No, I definitely think an ad at the Dreaddeline would make sense. They did that last year with Cadarious Tony, right? That was part of their issue in the fall and they tried to address

with Tony. But you like what you've got from Rishi Rice. I think Rice is, is shown as a rookie that he can create explosives. He can be reliable. MVS is still MVS. Like, is it great? No, but he's a guy who was around last year. You know what he can do, right? You still have enough pieces where, like, if they walk out of the deadline and the only thing they do is they get Mekyll Hardman in there, I'm not going to feel amazing

about it. But I wouldn't be surprised by the time we get to December, January football. We're saying, you know, like Rice can play for them. Like, like Rice, MVS. Kelsey's healthy. Like, Mekol's back. Like, this is not an incredible group, but it's a good enough group. And then, yeah, like, like you said, like, it's always funny.

like, Chiefs panic. They've made the AFC championship game every single season of Mahomes from the starter. Like, they have such a high bar to clear that of course there's going to be some panic just because you don't always look like one of the two best teams in the conference and that's the standard they've set for themselves.

So I think they're going to be fine. But also, yeah, it is, there's no, it's plain as a nose on your face, right? This is not a very good receiver room, which is they have time to address that. I think they will. Yeah, I've been workshopping a, did the Chiefs build,

it right for this year take that I haven't quite gotten there and, you know, gone deep enough in. I don't know. Stay tuned on extra point taken for the next few weeks. I feel like at some point I will be ready to question that because I do think it's fair to question. All right, let's talk about the games coming up this weekend. Let's start with the headliner. Ben, what do you got your eye on? Yeah, last week for me, my headliner was Cowboys 49ers and it was a, you know, heat check the NFC contenders and then one of the NFC contenders wasn't an NFC contender and the other NFC contender is a team that now is under like high scrutiny we talked about them a lot on the Monday show that's the Cowboys who I said like hey Cowboys you guys are going to be fine like like

like this is okay like there's there's two eventualities and I think both eventualities are good for you one is more long term good than short term good I think it'll be all right the headliner it's Sunday it's not Sunday it's Monday it's Cowboys Chargers it's the Monday night football game and this game is important because it's the Kellyn Moore game. Right after a 49ers opponent, right, a performance in which this offense so clearly is lacking the juice that Kellan Moore brought last season. Stephen, I thought Stephen Ruiz, for us, did a great job writing this for Friday. Right after a game like that, you now go and you face Callen Moore and you face Justin Herbert, you face these chargers.

An offense that's humming in large part because Kellan Moore's got Justin Herbert attempting more passes 20 plus yards down the field than anybody else in the league, right? And then a defense in the chargers who everyone is supposed to be able to score on. You are supposed to be able to beat this team by outscoring them because the defense has injury problems, has star talent problems, has schematic problems. You got to be able to pour points on these guys. And so this is a hugely important get right game for the Cowboys if they are where I still believe them to be, which is a really good team in the NFC. And a team that can iron out some of the fall issues and be a really strong team in the winter. This is the sort of game that you have to win, right?

It's a bounce back game in prime time against a still good but beatable opponent after a very embarrassing loss. This is the sort of game that like true contending teams win. Like this is sort of like the true good teams like it doesn't take you a few weeks to rally the wagons. You don't let things spiral. You fix the CD Lamb stuff. You put last week's loss behind you, quick memory, short memory, and you go and you win it.

And so this is a very important game to like last week was very much a, you know, litmus test for the Cowboys and Niners, are you who we think you are? The Cowboys failed that test. Well, you can get right back on that horse if you just settle yourself and you let your talent speak for your talent and you outscore the Chargers and you beat a team. Chargers are very good at losing football games, man. That's what they do best.

Like, you should be able to win this and control this and handle this. To do it. And if you don't, then it gets real sweaty under the collar. You lose back-to-back primetime games, one against like a real team that's been beating you, but then the second one against the Chargers, the guy who has your new OC, that's where the heat really starts get dialed up.

Such a good one for team content. I am, I am team content. I mean, this one, like, regardless of what happens, we're going to get something from the, I mean, Mike McCarthy, Brandon Staley, Dak, Prescott, Justin Herbert. But I think your first point is the big one. Like Mike McCarthy made the bet in the offseason that I want to run this offense differently. Kellyn Moore will let you go to the Chargers. Go ahead. That was part of the issue. And you look at their offensive numbers across the board, EPA per drive. Worse this year. Success rate. Worse this year. Points per game. Worse this year.

Like, there's been ups and downs. They've had their moments. Like, you know, some games in there were so far through five weeks where we said, okay, the offense looks good. Cowboys look like contenders. Other games like last week where you say, oh, goodness, this could be an issue that first half, you know, against the full game against the Cardinals, actually, that they lost that one as big favorite.

So, yeah, I think it's great, too. It's sort of a great, like, look at that just offseason narrative that we spent so much time talking about. And then for the Chargers, Chargers are not out of the woods yet. They sort of saved their season after the slow start. But, you know, this is a game where you're going up, but you saw what the 49ers did to the Cowboys last week. And you can just look at one side of the ball, like what the 49ers offense did to that Cowboys defense. Chargers, you're a top five offense. Like, you should be able to put some points up on the board against this Cowboys defense. So yeah, that's going to be a fun one regardless. I've got a little more on that later in

one of my categories, but I am looking forward to that one. All right, my headliner for week six, can anyone stop this 49ers often? No. Like this 49ers Browns game, the numbers with Jim Schwartz against Kyle Shanahan over the years are really interesting. Okay, Kyle Shanahan's offenses have faced Jim Schwartz's defenses. Schwartz, obviously the defensive coordinator of the Browns now, eight times. in those games, the Shanahan teams are 1 in 7. They have never scored more than 20 points. Eight games. Now, listen, there have been various quarterbacks, talent.

I know. That all plays a role in it. But still, eight games, a Shanahan offense, not scoring 20 points, like more than 20 points. That's a big deal. They've averaged 14 points per game. And so you look at this and, like, going into it, you thought, all right, this could be like a heavyweight matchup. Now we don't know if Deshaun Watson's going to play.

It actually looks like it's probably going to be PJ Walker as we record this. But I'm just looking at the one side of the ball, 49ers offense versus Browns defense. Browns right now are first in defensive DVOA. Going into last week, the Cowboys defense was first in EPA per drive, and we saw what happened, what Shianahan and the 49ers did to that defense. So I'm looking at this Niners offense right now, and the numbers are just silly. I mean, they've played 10 game regular season games with Brock Purdy. They've scored 30 or more in nine of those games.

One more for you. Last 10 years, EPA per drive, offenses that have performed better than the 2023-9ers. One, the 2023 Miami Dolphins, and two, the 2018 Kansas City Chiefs. That's it. Those are the two offenses that EPA per drive have performed better than what the 49ers are doing right now through five games. Now, it's a small sample. Obviously, other teams had to go through the entire season. But still, I want to see what this looks like.

Does Schwartz have success? against Shannianian? Does he have answers? Are they able to slow these guys down? Because right now, the 49ers offense has just looked unstoppable. And if they drop like 30 on the Browns, a week after doing what they did against the Cowboys, I mean, we'll be at the point where it's basically, unless they get decimated with injuries, this offense can light up pretty much everyone. Maybe we're already there, but I do like another test against a very good defense. Yeah, the Browns, the Browns game is important. The Schwartz game is extremely important. The Shanahan offense against the Schwartz defense is really funny

because the core tenet of the Shanahan offense is like what if I took it what if I make your linebackers wrong like what if I make them just you think it's going to be a run and then I throw over the top of them and the Schwartz defense is like

our linebackers haven't been right in years we don't play with right linebackers we've never played with credit our linebackers chase one gap it's the only thing we ever ask them to do we don't ask them to do anything else with this and so it's a little bit like an immunity

just by by structure where it's like, okay, we want to, you know, take advantage of your backers. We weren't relying on our backers to do anything for us. Anyway, we're living like that. You can hit me. I'm hitting myself. Yeah. Something like that. That made no sense.

Listen, I'm on like four hours sleep, so I don't know what I'm talking about. But as you bring up, it's a, it's a situation where this is like, I want to say like last time Shanahan played Schwartz, it was a Nick Mullins game, right? It was nineers Eagles a couple years ago. And so we've, we've got an opportunity here for, I think, Shanahan to change the way the passing game works as he's been doing for the last year, year plus and attack some of those matchups. And that's where it becomes Debo Samuel and Brian Ayuk against this outside corner duo, right, against Greg Newsom and Denzo Ward, which I've been on the record saying, I have this Brown's

defense, the corners are the guys who like, there's not a lot of size there. Well, firstly, they've been playing out of their mind. And secondly, this is a great matchup to like, you're not playing skyscraper receivers over here, right? You're playing these guys who are quick and Brandiuk and who can separate their explosive. Debo's the tough guy to attack. You saw that you've seen over the course of Shanhan's time in San Francisco when it's like a really, really big game. It's an important one. They unlock Debo in a big way, right? Like they got the ball in Debo's hands very quick, very early against the Cowboys.

I think it's another huge Debo game against the Browns, to be honest. I haven't looked at what exactly I want to take in that game prop-wise. But it tends to be when they face the best defenses, especially defense like this that are a little bit undersized. They get Debo activated and they just ask him to break a bunch of tackles. And Debo's really good at that and should be okay. I think that the Niners are well positioned to out talent the Browns all at the skill position spots. And that'll be like the difference maker here. But it's an important one to see.

I agree. Like this Niners offense has scored 30 plus points in five consecutive games. There's only six. There are the six such offense to do that in the modern Super Bowl era. And four of the last five all went to the Super Bowl. All right. It was like the, there's like the 2007 Patriots who went to Super Bowl and lost. 2011 Patriots went to the Super Bowl lost.

2013 Broncos, went to the Super Bowl lost, 2018 Rams, when to the Super Bowl lost. So it's not like a great trend for the Niners, but it's very rare to see a team produce this well this early. When they do, these offenses, they typically tend to go the distance. So it is important to figure out,

okay, just what can limit beyond this group? Miles Garrett, a guy to watch here, he's dealing with a foot injury. I think he was a limited participant on Thursday. So hopefully he's feeling good and is able to play in this game. All right. Monday morning storyline, Benjamin. What do you got?

We did a lot of this a few weeks ago, and then you kind of started to lose interest, but I'm back. I'm back interested in young quarterback tests against some really important opponents here. There are three young QBs who have critical games. The first is C.J. Stroud against the Saints. Strat has been playing out of his mind. Everybody likes Stroud. We all know, we're all officially pro-C.J. Stroud. Congrats. It's great. The Saints defense is one of the best defenses in the league so far against the past by expected points out and by success rate. This is about as good of a unit as we see typically over the course of the season. Dennis Allen's unit always a great unit.

They've also faced a pretty weak schedule though. So there's a chance that the numbers are a little bit puffed up. This Dennis Allen defense also historically pretty good against the Shanhan offenses. There's when they face Shanahan, they have some struggles. But historically against iterations of this offense, they can be pretty strong. They play the right sort of defense to handle the same. stuff. They play with too high. They try to force you to run the football. And then they have those

big dudes on the interior, those big defensive ends who make it hard to get to those runs that you want to get to in the Shanahan offense. So, see your trout against the Saints. I'm very excited to watch. Desmond Ritter against the commanders. Ritter coming off of his best game as pro, unquestionably, in week five against the Texans, now gets a commander's defense that, like, is good and also just gave up 40 to Justin Fields, right? There are eminently pickaudible people on this defense, Emmanuel Forbes man. It always is not fun to talk about the first round picks that look really bad right away. But when the commanders took Emmanuel Forbes right before Christian Gonzalez,

that was a surprise in April, right? Corner 2 was expected to be Gonzalez. They took the kid of Mississippi State. And then through five weeks, every opposing quarterback is thrown at Forbes. And Christian Gonzalez, before he got hurt, was playing like a high caliber football. And so there's a huge target on Emmanuel Forbes's back right now. and that's where you get Drake London, right? And the Falcons team construction

has been a bit of a weird one because they don't throw the ball very much and they have a top 15 picket wide receiver. But... Do you know who their leading receiver is, the Falcons? Johnny Smith, yeah. Correct. Yeah.

I mean, that's subjectively funny. Yeah. I... You know me. You know I love that. You know, to me, that right there is content, okay? It's just who's opening the scheme. What do you want for me?

Drake London and a really, really important game against Emmanuel Forbes. And then if you're Ritter, you just had that. You had two weeks ago, really tough performance. Last week, really great performance. You have to be able to build on something here, right? You have to be able to show some consistency. If there's, if, as someone who's like a Ritter supporter, there's been a lot to like, I think, over the first five weeks of the season.

But the thing that really, really worries you is like every single snap feels like a dice roll. where like it would be like a second and nine and you're like, all right, they're passing it. This could be sick. This could be horrible. Like the consistency, the waves have been really, really high peak low valleys. And so against the commanders, you need to settle this down.

This is a beatable defense. And then the last one is Justin Fields against the Vikings. One and four vikes, one and four bears. Not where neither team wanted to be. No Justin Jefferson. Vikes are in like a really weird spot team wise. But Brian Flores will just send the kitchen sink at you, right? We've really like, we've said in the past, like all these defenses will send the kitchen sink.

Flores is really like in send the kitchen sink mode. It's an unbelievable defense that they deploy out there. They're going to blitz it at pretty much historic rates. They've already done it in certain games this season. I think season long you're probably going to see that they blitz at historic rates. And for fields, you're coming off of two excellent games. The offense made a lot of structural changes. Pass for over 600 yards, fast for eight touchdowns combined in the last two games.

You feel like you're turning the boat around. Now you walk up against a defense. It's got legit teeth. like they will punch you in the mouth for four quarters. This is like screams like a high sack, two fumble game for Fields if he is the guy that he was previously. Get rid of the ball quickly. Find DJ Moore.

Do what you've been doing previously. You should be okay. And so there's arrows pointing up for all three of these passers and all three of them get defenses that I think are an important stress test for them. That's what I'm watching on Monday. Yeah, the most interesting one to me out of those three is field. Just because like the last two games, you're like, okay. okay, well, this is, yeah, when they had that little stretch last year where we were saying,

oh, all right, maybe he can be something and be salvageable. And, I mean, he is a fun player to watch, really, regardless. But now some of that is kind of seeping back in. They've had 20 games with Justin Fields as their starting quarterback. And among that sample, last week's game against the commanders, ranked second in terms of EPA per drive and the week before ranked third. So these are like, I don't know if like three is a trend or what number we look at and say, oh, it is a trend. It's going in the right direction, but it's really inarguable that the last

two of the best performances they've had with Justin Fields. And maybe they've figured some things out. He's played better. DJ more, obviously, on Thursday night in week five was a huge story as well. So, yeah, he's the one I really, because that, you know, that Vikings defense, it's, you're right. I mean, we knew going in that Flores, it's like, all right, he's just going to have to sort of figure this out, he doesn't have a lot of talent here. And that's really been what he's done. He's not like, oh, let's just, you know, we'll sit back. He's just like, all right, we're going to kind of go crazy here. It's been hit or miss. I mean, opponents right now against the Vikings are completing 76.4% of passive. Like that is like an unheard of number. So there will be placed to be made nine touchdowns, one

interception. They're not trying to deny completions, right? They're saying we're going to get sacks for short completions, right? Like, we're like, if we, if we try to deny completions, we would fail, because we're starting to Kayla Evans and Kambayn. I'm like, we know where we're at in the world. Right. So we won't deny completions. We're going to try to get tackles, try to get tackles for loss and try to get sacks. What's, what's really important to this field game is they've opened up, Keeb run, they've opened up the boot action, right? Quarterback movement, both in the run game and the passing game, it's hard to do against a blitz. It can help, but it's a lot of a guessing game, right? You have to be right. You, you, you, you go

line of in the pistol, a little play action fake, turn your back to the defense. And all of a sudden, you wheel your head around and a guy came off the edge. You didn't think was coming off the edge. That's a shot to the ribs and a 12-yard loss. Like, you have to be careful with that sort of stuff. So a lot of the gimmick is the wrong word, but a lot of the easy button stuff they've been pressing to improve the offense is liable against the defense like this. And you know that Flores would be pretty dialed in on tendency too. And he, you know, he's going to see stuff film-wise because this is what Flores does really well, where he says, Oh, and they're like this and they're like that, he's booting.

And if he's booting, we're going to hit him. And you don't want to put fields in that position because that's where you get turnover to get sacks, negative plays, and you lose all the wind in your sail. So very important game for Luke Getsey, who I was extremely critical of Luke Getzzi through two weeks. The last three weeks, including that Chiefs game, I'm like, all right, this is what I thought it was going to look like. Let's make sure this is tenable. It's actually built this through.

I actually create an offense off of this. We'll see how they do. Vikings are blitzing. 55% of the time this season, that is the highest percentage for any team in true media's database that goes back to the year 2000. This includes all those Wink Martindale defenses with the Ravens and the Giants. So yeah, that is the button they're pushing over and over and over again. All right, let's take a little break.

We'll get back with my Monday morning storyline. Snap into action this NFL season with Fandle, America's number one sports book. Right now, new customers get 200. $200 in bonus bets, guaranteed when you place a $5 bet. That's $200 in bonus bets, win or lose. Later on this pod, Sheel and I will give our picks, but a little bit of a preview for you. I like the Falcons minus two and a half. I like the Lions minus three. I like the Patriots. Incredibly, I like the Patriots plus two and a half this week. So if you've been thinking about joining Fandle, there's no better time to get in on the action. The app is so easy to use,

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Must be 21 plus and present in select states. First online real money wager only, $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non-wistrable bonus beds that expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fandle.com. All right. We are back on extra point. Taking my Monday morning storyline, we have a trade to announce.

The Jaguards Send a third round pick To the Minnesota Vikings For Daniel Hunter There you go Daniel Hunter has six sacks on the season Listen there's some noise there If you look at like the hits and the pressures

You know he hasn't been performing at the same level As some of those other guys with big sack numbers But he had 10 and a half sacks last season Ben talked about it on Monday The Vikings kind of shedding some salary Getting rid of some of these players Trying to accumulate draft capital I think DeNeal Hunter might be the most likely guy out of that group to get moved.

He's a free agent at the end of the season. You can make the comp pick argument. Well, Sheel, for a third round pick, wouldn't they just let him? The compick thing is like more complicated, I think, than people realize. Yeah, sheel, there is nothing that drives me crazier. They want to bring a trade. And people are always like, well, what if you just let him walk for a compic? Com picks exist for when you can't sign anyone in free agency and all of your good players

leave. You don't want to be that team. If you're getting a comp, you'd be like, oh, that sucked for you. Here, this makes it a little bit better. So if you're playing for a compic, you're saying, well, we're not going to sign any good free agents this year. You don't want to do that to yourself. Not only that, the guy has to like stay healthy and like the guy, yeah, the salaries, all

that stuff. And it's a year later. Like here, you're getting a third round pick this year. There you would potentially have to wait for a 20, 25 pick. Who wants to do that? So I'm with you. Extra point taken. comp picks are overrated. Everybody's settled down. That's our official stance. So there you go. Jaguars need

pass rush help. No doubt about it. They're going to have to face Mahomes and Allen and Burrow and Lamar, or maybe Herbert. They're going to have to face a lot of good quarterbacks if they want to get to where they want to go. Josh Allen for them has six sacks right now. No other Jaguar has more than two. Trayvon Walker has two sacks. As a team, they have nine sacks. That ranks 26th in the NFL. So I feel like Daniel Hunter would match like, you know, Trent Balke would be like, oh, yeah, I like a Daniel Hunter. So I think that is the type of trade that could make sense. So there you go. That's my calling my shot for one specific trade. I floated on the on the timeline this week, Chase Young to the Jaguars. And Commander's fans were immediately like, but he's been good this year. And it's like, yeah,

that's why they're trading him. It's because they have, they don't have Chase Young and Montez sweat money. They have one of the two money. and Montes Sweats been good the last three years. Chase has been mostly banged up the last three years and not been as good. And so the fact that Young is good now gives you an opportunity to sell high on a player that I just am not sure that the commander is going to be able to sign both him and sweat. And I don't think they want to let a sweat walk. And so if you're in a spot where Young's had like two or three good game string together,

I think of like an eight pressure game recently if memory serves, then yeah, like this is the time to move off of him. And again, immediately it's like, oh, he's going to be a third round compick. I don't know if he's going to be a third round compick. This is a guy with injury history, the guy who has him pretty, obviously he's got the name and the title to him, but he's not going to go out there and get a Hassan Redick deal, man. And so you don't know that for sure.

And I think if the Jags put a, like that you said, that third round pick for Hunter, middle round pick for, third round pick for Chase Young. Both of those make sense. Jags very much, very much so, need to add pass rush help. And there are a couple of teams that are also,

I think, playoff pushers that could argue they need to add pass rush help as well. And it's important for the Jaguars to beat those teams and get that help. Jaggers are now second in the league defensively against the rush by expected points out. it. Great run defense so far the season. Big surprise. Let's, let's, let's, the pass rush, let's get that up to speed and let's actually be able to play both sides of the ball here. Because run defense is lovely. Angle matter when you catch AFC contenders in the playoffs. Bill's, Bill's,

getting better running the football. She just getting better running the football, but that's not how they're going to beat you, man. You have to be able to get after the passer. Yeah, no, no doubt about it. All right. It is time to get to the betting portion of the show. show. Do you have our buddy Luke's spreadsheet open? Yes, I do. To give the listeners an update on where things stand. Go ahead. Yep. Another winning week for me, five to four.

I've won three of the last four weeks. They've all been extremely close, though. It's 19 to 16 right now. Listen, start with the final score. It's a three-point thing. It's very tight here. Okay, I don't need all these in-depth next-bent stats about how many weeks in a row you've won. It's 19 to 16.

It's very close through five weeks. Okay, settle down. It's 19 to 16. It's not that close to five weeks. It's 90 to 16. Last week, you and I both hit our long shot of the week. First double long shot of the week week, which is a go team. That's a fun one for everybody. My long shot was under 501.5 points in Giants' Dolphins and Dolphins to cover minus 10 and a half.

They did that quite nicely. Game went as I hoped. Your long shot on the week was an altered to spread. Bengals minus six and a half against the Cardinals. Also, nice and easy for you. Props-wise, we sucked. you went back to the Bejohn Robinson rushing over as well. Oh, for two on that one.

Very tough. Moratorium. No more. I'm not allowed to do Bejohn anymore this season. How about that? I went over 23 and a half completions from Matthew Stafford. Sheel, he had seven after the first drive. I kicked my feet up.

I should not have kicked my feet up. He had like 13 the rest of the game. Well done by that Eagles defense. Against the spread for locks of the week. Sheel, you were two and three, I want to say. Yeah? Yeah, no. One and two.

One and two, yes. Bill's against the Jaguars in London, Sheal, I tried to tell you. The London game, man, it's dangerous. The scary, one of them has been in the country for a week. It was a tough loss there. Jets cover plus two against the Broncos. You and I both had that one.

Weird game, special teams' turnovers and late situations. Jets' defense prevails. And then you were also on Packers plus one against the Raiders. Tough one for you there as well, last minute drive. I went two for one, two and three, a two for three. I went two and one against, against the spread. So my unbeaten streak has fallen. I'm now eight and one locks of the week last three weeks.

The one I lost was Ravens minus four and a half against the Steelers. I don't know what to tell you. I'd make the bet again if they were playing again this week. Catch a football. I don't know. I felt great about that one. But then I was also on Chiefs minus three and a half against the Vikings and Jets plus two against the Broncos.

So yeah, 19 and 16 against the spread. we are trying to make sure that we as a team are over 56% to or excuse me over 57% cumulatively we're at 59%. So far, head above water. I'm dragging you down. Ben, you are so close to just taking over the picks against the spread column for the ringer. And I will, I will be the one, mute his mic. I will be the one who just tweets out stuff, keys to the game. Because I've been, I've been doing much better on the props in this contest. I mean, just 73% with your locks, Benjamin. I want to see. I mean, there has to be a number where you, actually have to take over the column for next season, whether you want to or not.

It'll be what the audience wants. We have to be team players here. Firstly, I've said this you since the beginning when you have to pick every game. Like, I'm 73% against the spread when I choose three games that I like. I'll tell you right now, against the spread over the year, your boy's not 73%. Your boy's a number remarkably lower than 73%. When I pick the games I really like, I'm fine. It's when I let myself bet games that I shouldn't be bet and that I run the problems. The props, man.

Props that I put out on Twitter, I'm like 66%. Props that I put out on... I spent more time on the prop this week than I spent on the three locks combined, dude. I'm getting it right. I'm getting it right. I love this spreadsheet. Again, we'll tweet out this spreadsheet. It's awesome from Luke here.

He's got it broken down by any category. You could want to look at... Yeah, like Ben mentioned, Ben is 40% on props. I'm 60% on props. He's killing me in the, uh, picks ago in the locks of the week. He is against 73%. I'm at 47% and I'm more of a volume shooter. See, I'm the opposite of you. I'm five over 500 in the, in the column, but you make me pick the three. I like the most. I can't do that. I'm not a decisive person. Don't make me do that. All right. And we both hit, uh, 40% of our long shots of the week. All right. Let's get it started for this. Benjamin, what do you have? You just said. Oh, you just

tease this. I'm so excited. You're pro. You're pro. the week. What do you got for us? Yeah, I, um, I liked, uh, this look a lot. And then my buddies at 4 for 4 football, uh, Connor Allen and Ryan Noonan, who are great, great, great betting follows. We're also on this this week. And that was a, uh, that was a positive sign for me. I like Zay Flowers over in the London game. This is Ravens Titans, uh, you just told me, don't do anything with the London game. It's a different country. They got to fly over the Atlantic ocean. You can't be doing the, now you're doing the London game. But I said don't do the London game when one of the teams has been there for a week and the other one just showed up.

You're taking the one who just showed up against the spread. When it comes to the Ravens passing game right now very heavily relies on Zay Flowers, when it comes to Christian Fulton, the starting outside corner for the Titans has been picked on so far this season, gave up explosive plays to Jamar Chase, gave up explosive plays to I'm scrolling because I lost it. Michael Pittman Jr. gave it up to Josh Downs. This is an opportunity for the Ravens passing attack, which I have big, preseason exposure to the Ravens passing attack.

And it's such a weird, annoying thing. I'm on Lamar Jackson over on passing yard. It's very, very heavily. And this passing attack has been frustrating. There have been drops. There have been injuries, receiver and offensive line. And Lamar's still on pace to hit his number because they just throw the ball so much. It hasn't even been good.

So it's maddening. So you feel like there's so much more meat on this bone. The Ravens Passage game numbers, I think, in general, are just still sitting low on a week-to-week basis. because of the execution issues. Like I said, you have Zay Flores. He's at 56.5. You have Mark Andrews at 51.5.

I think that's too low. You have Lamar Jackson at 227. And I think that's too low. This Titans passing offense is really, really susceptible. The only way that they get you is they get you with the pass rush on the interior. Lamar tends to be a really good pass rush neutralizer. That's just him over history, right? If you're going to beat him, you have to send extra.

The Titans don't want to send extra as much as win with four. And Lamar's just good at making the defensive lineman missing space. That's always been him. So Zayflowers at 56 and a half, particularly, getting those snaps on the outside, land up against Christian Fulton, you like a lot. And then in the, uh, in the, uh, the exposure of passing game, he gets opportunities for explosives when he gets the ball in either direction. He either gets the ball super far down the field, right? And now we're chunking out 30 yards of this on one throw or he gets the ball behind

line of scrimmage on design touches. And now his ability to catch and run, right? So they don't use him as a possession receiver at all. We're like in order to get to 56 and a half. You have to earn six, seven plus targets. This is a guy who you expect to get big chunks. And of this total on single receptions. And so I like the receiving yards a little bit more than I do like the receptions. Receptions is an interesting number to me. Also like DeAndre Hopkins over four and a half perceptions in this game in case anyone cares. But overall, the receiving yards I like the most, the over on longest reception, also

at 20 and a half is one that I like a lot. So I'll have a lot of Zay exposure this week. I'll have Zay, Lamar, in a pretty big stack, DFS wise. The Ravens passing attack. I'm back to the well. And this time they're going to catch the football and it's going to be great. Yeah, yeah, I mean, there's there's no doubt that it looks better. It's more in sync. It has more of a rhythm like we talked about on the show earlier this week. Like the issues they're having, you're not watching it going like, what is Todd Monkin? Like, Todd Monkin's taken no heed, you know, because we watch the game. It's like, no, that's not on Todd Monkin. Like they need to catch those, catch the football downfield. I like that one. Yeah, I can just in my head, I can picture, you know, sitting here at the chair like 9.40 a.m. Sunday morning. And it's like, I. I don't know, is Rich Eisen calling this game?

Rich Eisen, by the way, very under, I feel like the Rich Eisen and Kurt Warner tandem. I don't know if you have a take on this. This was not on my list to talk about. I think they're like fantastic. They should be calling games every week, Rich Eisen and Kurt Warner. I generally miss the London games live. That's right.

Busy on Sunday mornings. So I don't know. I always watch those games on film. I have no idea how they call them. I'm glad that shout out, shout out Kurt. Glad they're doing great. Kurt's my boy. He and I talk about players on Twitter now.

Whatever. It's fine. That's right. Yeah, Kurt Warner is just tweeting at you. So you like Kurt Warner. And yeah, I think Eisen is a very good play by play guy. I enjoy them calling games. But I could picture them, you know, just going nuts about a Zay Flowers, you know, 43-yard pass in the first half, which would help you. So I like that one. All right. My prop of the week, Ben Luke has that category in the spreadsheet that says, Shield claims that his prediction is the stupidest bet that anyone has made on this podcast so far this season. You know, you know that category that I'm talking about. That's why, you know, we like, Luke's doing a great job. This prop bet absolutely fits into that category. This is incredibly stupid. Here's what I'm doing. I'm doing Adam Thielandh. Over five and a half receptions. Why is that stupid? Because we all watch the Panthers. You don't want to be taking overs in the Panthers offense. You don't want to be taking overs with the receiver in his 30s who can't run. They only throw it to one guy. Absolutely. You want to be taking this. Well, yeah, that's the reasoning.

but it doesn't it's not going to make for a fun experience. Like if you win yours, you'd be like, oh yeah, Zayflowers. That was sick, 43 yards. All right, if I watch mine, I'm like, all right, come on, six yards on third and 19. You got this. Thielen, one more. Give it to me. Bam, nailed it.

So here's the reasoning. Last three weeks spent, Adam Thielen has 35 targets, 35 targets. Tied with A.J. Brown for the third boast in the NFL behind only Jamar Chase, Devante Adams. You heard the names I just mentioned, right? Jamar Chase, Devante Adams, A. G. Brown, and Adam Thielen. One of these players is not like the other three players. I think we know who that is. The Panthers just throw to Adam Thielen an unhealthy amount. His 29 catches over the last three weeks are second to only Jamar Chase. He has 394 receiving yards. That's 11th in the NFL. So here's what I need to happen. The Panthers are taking on the Miami Dolphins. They are 13 and a half point

underdogs in this game, Adam, I just need you to have like three catches going into the fourth quarter. We're going to get some garbage time in this bad boy. We're going to be able to have string together a 75-yard drive with like three minutes left that maybe cuts the lead to like 17 points. You're going to be able to get those final two or three reception. So that's what I'm counting on here. This is not an Adam Thielen is taking over the league. Adam Thielen, it found a second life at this age. Adam Thielen is underwerellon. rated that it's not what this is. That is a, this panthers offense is going to have some garbage time opportunities. They don't have a lot of people to throw the football too. They throw the football

a lot to Adam Thielen. I'm taking over five and a half reception. There you go. I wish I was on this. I will be on this by the time the podcast ends. This is great. Exactly. No, but against the lions, the Panthers showed us exactly. They are going to play to the final whistle even when the game is decided because they're trying to get reps in, right? We want to, let's, let's, let's, get as many live chances we can to give this offense, right, get this offense working. They've shown that they are Thielen dominant. They're a Thielen Funnel who does not have the- Funnel. Think about how outrageous this sounds in the year 2023.

Listen. But it's true. Is it, does anybody feel good about it? No. I won't feel good about it until Thielen has a sixth catch on Sunday. But when he does, we're like, well, obviously, they're a Thielen funnel. And especially with Young, it's not like Young's out there scrambling around and making plays and there's a way to, like, drain Thelon's targets.

because he gets out of the pocket and he throws it to Jonathan Mingo. Like, he just throws it up to Thielen on every third down because he can't really get outside of the pocket and they can't really create at this point. Like you said, they're going to be behind. He's going to get high volume. And the Dolph's offense is, excuse me, the Dolphins defense is eminently getable, right? Like, a Caterko, who is a better player than he appeared to be during the Stefan Diggs game, but still, like in the slot, that's the sort of guy that Thelan can be able to win against.

I love this. This is the, you got, you keep trying to keep expectations like, oh, it's the worst bet. This is a very well-reasoned bet. It's exactly like, like I said, I like Downger Hopkins over four and a half perceptions. It's the exact same reason, right? The Hopkins funnel offensive thing, they're going to be in garbage time, so on and so forth. All right, maybe I need to let you tell me when it's the stupidest bet that Sheel could make. Maybe, yeah, you should probably be the judge.

I'd probably never say that. You'll call like everyone. Yeah. No, please. You'll say that three times. Well, that spreadsheet will be loaded. I'll be like, all right, here are Shields three stupid bets of the week this week. All right, give me your long shot of the week.

As we saw last with Ben, these long shots, they're going to. determine who wins this bad boy. I mean, you get that three, what a feeling, right? On a Sunday afternoon when your three-pointer hits, whatever else is happening in the football world, you're feeling good. What do you get? The, uh, this is the stupidest bet at the show, okay? I'll be the judge of that. I have a tweet to read for you. Josh Norris of Underdog Fantasy, lovely guy for under the show. Josh says, uh, Joe Mixon has 100% of the Bengals carries inside of the red zone. 16 attempts. he has one single touchdown on all of them. This is always the case with the Bengals.

They exclusively hand the ball off to Mixon in the red zone, in the goal line. They don't have a short yardage back. And then Mixon gets stuffed on first and ten, or first and goal. And he gets stuffed on second and goal at like the one. And you know, like, just do it again. Just do it one more time. As someone who bets on Joe Mixon anytime touchdown constantly, just do it again. Just do it one more time.

And then they throw it on third and goal and like Tanner Hudson catches a touchdown. And you're just like, dude, come on. This is, again, if anybody has bet Joe Mixing anytime touchdown in their lives, which I do all the time, it is an agonizing experience. With that said, Bengals money line, minus 158, parlayed with Joe Mixing anytime touchdown score, minus 120. We're going back to the same game parlay well, gets us to plus 157. The Bengals are playing the Seahawks, and what to me is not the most interesting game of the week, but the most, I've looked at this 10,000 ways and I'm not sure who's going to win, and this is a tricky one for me to bet. a week. I love what I saw from Burrell, love what I saw from this offense last week. I thought they got the, the Burl looked more athletic, Burrell looked more nimble, he looked more spry than he

ever has in any game this season. Cardinals defense is like maybe better than we thought, but also like, ah, I don't want to be like, oh, the Cardinals are a surprise. That was a real defense they beat. I'm worried about the speed which this, this Seahawks defense plays. I'm worried about a Seahawks pass rush and defensive line that shouldn't really play better than than we expect. I think that's a little bit more legit. So there's a way in which the Bengals' offense comes crashing back down to Earth. I would be surprised. Like, this team just tends to figure stuff out really, really well, especially Burrow.

So I think the Bengals would be okay offensively. I think they'll stay close. They'll stay close in this game. They'll have a chance to win. So it's a tricky one. I don't really like the spread at two and a half points. I thought that was appropriately priced. Bengals as a slight favorite.

But in the worlds in which the Bengals are winning, bangles are scoring points. They're getting down in the red zone. Joe Mixon's getting carries. I just need him to break one tackle between the tackles. I mean, get this film and the Bengals come in the game. plus 157 mix into score and the Bengals to win. That's my long shot of the week.

Last week and you did something, well, not something similar, but a little bit. You did a parlay last week, right, to get to the plus 150 and that hit. Yes, the same gamers, man. That's how you do it. Because you build out the script, there's no problem. Nice and easy. This is a fan dual company man right here. Correlated.

So you got that one. All right, I've got, I actually feel like I feel better about my long shot maybe than my prop of the week. I really like this one, which is probably a death. sentence and it's not going to happen. But Devante Smith 70 plus yards is plus 182. Whoa. Last week, Devante Smith had one catch for six yards on five targets. There was one point in the broadcast. They were like, oh, Devante Smith just took a long walk down the sideline.

Love a long walk. Yeah, he looked like he took a long walk. He wasn't exactly like a wide receiver, you know, throwing his tablet into the stands or, you know, needing to be separated from his teammates, he took a long walk, which is like perfect for Devante Smith. He's like a silent assassin. Nick Siriani was like walking with him. I don't know if he had his arm around him, but shoulder to shoulder. This has sort of been a thing with the Eagles, as, as you know, Benjamin Solek from our ringers Philly special pot, it's like, you know, AJ Brown is unhappy. Okay, let's fix this. We'll feed AJ Brown. It's like, Dallas Goddard really hasn't gotten a lot of touches. Okay, let's just, let's get Dallas got it like three touches on the first possession.

Hello, who's next? Devante Smith. Squeaky, we all gets the grease, brother. And he's not even squeaky. Like, AJ Brown was squeaky. I don't know that Devante Smith and Dallas got it were squeaky, but it's still something like everybody wants to get their touches. They're all really good players. The Eagles offense is trying to figure it out while also trying to win games here. So I think Devante Smith is going to get the ball early and often in this game. Jets have a good defense, no doubt about it. sauce Gardner typically stays on the one side.

You know, you can scheme stuff up to Devante Smith. You don't have to be going Devante Smith versus Sauce Gardner. If anything, I think sauce will probably match up more with AJ Brown. Eagles offensive line has been good. Jail and Hernd threw for over 300 yards last week. I think there will be enough to go around, but 70 yards isn't like a wild amount. I was a little surprised by the number here. Again, this is probably a bad sign.

If it looks too easy, it's not too easy. and you're probably going to lose money on it. That's at least how I look at my picks, but I looked at that and I liked Devante Smith, 70 plus yards here. What do you think? I get it. That 70 is a lot.

I don't know if I like it to 70. That's at least, like in the way that Devante gets used because he's not going to get used high volume. That's, you're banking on a 40 plus yard, or not a 40 plus yard, but you're banking on an explosive, right?

You're banking on a vertical route. In which case, like, longest reception probably gets you home easier. Obviously, this is a long shot, and you can't build long's reception to a long shot. This is what I'm worried about. I know you like you like more than your prop. I like your prop more and I like this.

But we'll say, I'll be very happy when I'm wrong because that means Devante's woken up. I'm just 70s or a lot of yards. But Devante has those games where he has like 112 for no freaking reason. Yeah, I think he said over 72 or three times this year. This season?

Yeah. Devonty Smith has had some monster games this season. Why do you think AJ Brown was complaining? It was because they were throwing to Devante Smith. That's, I think in, yeah. Yeah, he had 78 against the commanders. And then, yeah, he had 131 against the Vikings. That was he had that catch at the end of the first half, right?

Where they, like, just, like, bombed it. Was that the Vikings game? Yeah, where he had the contested catch downfield. Yeah. That still counts. Such a good player. Of course, you know, it still counts, 100%. Yeah.

All right, there you go. All right, so that's my long shot of the week. All right, what do we have next? Actually, let's take a quick break. We'll come back. We'll do our nonsense predictions. and then we'll do our locks of the week. All right, we are back on extra point taken.

All right, this one does... By the way, if you weren't familiar with the scoring system, I think you are by now, but the long shot gets three points. All the other picks get one point, so you can get a total of seven points every week there. You can get only a total of four points if you missed the long shot. That's why that's the bunny ball. That's the big one that's got to be plus 150 or better odds.

All right, what do you have for your nonsense prediction? This one doesn't count in the contest. we just like to say something weird we think is going to happen. Are you as thrilled as I am for Patriots Raiders? Thrilled. Walk me through it. I don't know that I'm thrilled for Patriots Raiders. Why should I be thrilled?

Because it's Belichick-McDaniels, right? And so it's just narrative, right, in general, right? McDaniels, when he was with, the Broncos had the win over the Patriots. I had the huge celebration on the sideline. I appreciate I was against the Patriots. It was very big deal. I go beat Bill Belichick. gotta go beat dad, like whatever.

But right now, narrative-wise, you gotta go beat dad. You gotta go beat dad. Like, you know, you finally got big enough. Congrats. We've got ballot check narratives, right? Where it's like,

job is on a lot, not job is on the line, but like, you know, spiraling is losing historic games, never lost a game by more than 34 points before. And he just did it in back-to-back weeks. Crazy. And then we have McDaniels narratives,

which are less like in the public and more in here, but just like McDaniels just actively trying to lose games with end-of-game decisions over and over. again. McDaniel's probably tanking. I think willing to accuse him of throwing games intentionally at this point. No, it's been bad coaching with the Raiders and McDaniels.

It's been bad coaching with Patriots and with Belichick. And now we're here in the in the father-son bowl where it's someone's going to lose and it's going to be devastatingly embarrassing, right? Someone loses this game. That's guaranteed unless they tie, which even that's embarrassing for both of them. Either dad loses to son after having two historic losses, he gets beat. by McDaniels, like the game has passed you by, old man, or McDaniels loses to a Belichick who's at his career low. Belichick's never been worse than he is right now, and you lose to him?

I think either way, the narratives are delicious. I'm very excited. My nonsense prediction is Patriots win, okay? I'm considering having Patriots down as one of my locks of the week. I have four teams down. I still haven't decided which of the three to do. I'm in a, I actually haven't decided on my third one yet. So this is, this is interesting. I, I, I, I, I, I, I'm stressing myself out now that I've had three really good weeks. I'm like, all right. Yeah, pressure is on. I'm trying to keep it simple, but I have four that are really like.

I'm going to be tweeting out your record when I tweet out the pie. I mean, listen, I'm going to brag about my partner's going eight and one here. I'm going to let people know. And that'll be the day I go, oh, and three. So I like the pages to win. And then my nonsense prediction is Belichick at the podium. Just give some really like, no emotion, no, like, no, like, no, like, like, you know, no spice on top of it.

Just very matter of fact, well, like, oh, you know, we felt good about playing the Raiders because we knew the coaching staff and we knew we'd have a good advantage, right? Like, like, right after being like just like deleted by back-to-back teams, Cowboys, Saints to Demas should be like, you know, Bill, like, what changed for your team here, big win after those losses? Like, well, we knew the staff. You know, we knew what they would, what they would want to do against us. We felt good about our game plan.

just like some classic just Belichick like three sentence like I don't respect him moving on that I think is what we're going to get at the end of this one if we get a McDaniels win we get the exact opposite thing but the exact same thing which he's going to talk insane mess about Belichick was going to take like 1900 words to do it's going to make no sense like when he tries to explain his field goal decisions which I'm rooting for the Belichick one where I just be up on the podium just being like Josh doing a great job with that team I'm really excited to see how he builds it out and you're just like oh dang bill does not think Josh is a really football coach. Excellent. Delightful. That's what I'm rooting for this week. See, I feel like they

still have a good relate. I think they're still good. Bill Belichick and Josh McDane's. I don't think Belichick would do that. I think Bill Belichick's going to be coaching the commanders next year and McDaniels is going to be his OC. It'll be just like old times. That is hilarious. I love that. That's 100% happening. If that were available on Fantle, I'm going, people don't keep money under the mattresses anymore. I would find money. I'll steal money from my daughter's piggy bank and put it in there. She won't know. Firstly, I would love to hear from Commander fans. Would you rather have what you have right now,

Ron Rivera and Eric Biedemey? Or would you take Bill Belichick, Josh McDaniels, head coach into O.C.? I'm just curious what the vibe is there. Secondly, Belichick's still good with McDaniels? Sure. I don't think Belichick's good with anybody after back-to-back 34-point losses.

I think Belichick wins a game. He's going to try to be like, oh, it's all back to normal, where I just stand up here and I just say like... Yeah. Why are you surprised? Right, exactly. Like, I want him to treat McDaniels

the way he treats Zach Wilson where he's like, Zach's doing a lot of great things. And you're like, oh, you think that's actually playing in the XFL. Like, that's what I want at the end of this game when they beat the Raiders. All right. You talk to me into it. Now, now I'm semi-interest. You are right about the loser of this game. I mean, if Belichick loses again here and it's two McDaniels to that team, like, that's going to be tough. And I don't know, I just have like no more feelings about the Raiders. Like, you bore me, you win a game, I don't care. You lose a game I don't care. Josh McDaniels. Josh McDaniels is not tanking. We have, we have like,

a long history of this is who he is. So he's not doing anything differently than what he normally does when he's trying to win games. Sorry. I'm not supposed to be talking about Josh McDaniels anymore. Right. I'm about to say, you've sworn off McDaniels conversation. But if I keep bringing him up in segments, you have to respond. And so I think maybe we'll have probably long-shadow the week nonsense prediction of the week. Ben says something about Josh McDaniels of the week. And we just kind of force you to provide a comment. I wish I had a comeback. You're absolutely right. You roped me in there very easily. All right,

mine also has to do with coaches. It has to do with the game you mentioned earlier, okay? Monday night. Now, this is a nonsense prediction can be for Tuesday. There will be a moment

in either Mike McCarthy or Brandon Staley's post-game press conference. They're going to go snip, get a little snippy with a reporter and it's going to go viral. I mean, something's going to, I don't know what they're going to say.

I don't know which coach is going to be. Here's what I'm sure of, and I'm with you. That is a very hard game to pick. When I do my picks, what I do, probably no one cares about this. But when it's a game I don't have a good feeling on, I just skip it. And then at the end, I look at, all right, am I heavy on favorites? Am I heavy on dogs? If this is a

coin flip, which way do I want to go? This was a hard one. I went, I actually changed my pick here. I initially had Cowboys two and a half. And then I'm like, you know what? I'm a little favorite heavy. I don't have a good feeling about this one. I'm going with the dog. Here's what I am sure of is that something is going to happen in the final two minutes that will light the internet on fire. I mean, that is, that is a good given. I mean, let's a given. I mean, let's a given. I mean, look at it could be a fourth down decision. It could be a play call. It could be a timeout usage. It could be Mike McCarthy can't find his flag. He's like, you know, digging in his pocket shoe. Where is this? He pulled, you know, like me, he pulled, oh, no, that's a tissue. Oh, no, that's my

wallet. He's looking for the flag. He can't find it. It could be anything like that. Someone will be asked about it post game. Whoever Lue can I make a prediction as to what it is. Yeah, please do. Staley's going to go for like a fourth and six on like the 42. And McCarthy's going to be, 42. What's that? His own 42? I just want to be able to picture this. Either 42. Pick it, pick a 42. He doesn't care. He doesn't care. He's staley.

And McCarthy is going to be so surprised that he's going to get the defense out late. And they're going to have like 10 guys on the field and they're going to give him the conversion. Time out. Yeah. Oh, give up the conversion. Don't even call the timeout. They'll have wasted the timeout. We're talking about having a timeout for. They have a timeout.

Oh, man. That is so good. That is perfect. Yeah. So I like that. So what Solex said will be the case, and then Staley will get asked about the fourth down decision, and then McCarthy will get asked about why did you have 10 players on the field? And I guess in that situation, it would be McCarthy getting snippy. He won't like the reporter's tone, because this is different than Belichick McDaniels, where there's stuff on the line. This one is kind of like, it's not season on the line, but like whoever loses this game is going to be feeling some, ooh, there'll be some heat, heat on that guy after this loss. So yeah, I think whichever coach loses

this game, there will be some type of snippy incident in the post game. I really wanted to do, I really wanted to do a Kellynmore related prediction, but just Kellynmore looks like me. And so I just don't think he has a lot of like bluster to him. I don't know. I don't think he's just going to try to coach a good game. Say hi to his pals and the Cowboys staff. I got, I don't think Moore's got that particular dog in him, unfortunately. Oh, you were thinking like maybe he does something post game like goes at McCarthy or something. then goes at the count. No, no, I was thinking more like first touchdown drive two point conversion, right?

Run like the statue of liberty. Right? Or like, uh, you know, just a cool like 85% pass rate. Just like they just don't run it. Like Austin Ackler's back. We just don't care. We're just throwing the football. Just anything to be like, this is what real offense looks like, Michael in case you

were wondering, but he's not going to do that. Yeah. Who knows? Maybe that it's a nice passive aggressive way just because you know, you could do that. You said he looks like you. You could do that. That wouldn't be a big deal. That's true. I would be more passive-aggressive. I would call nine passes to one run to make a point. That would be a thing I would do. There you go. All right. The moment you've all been waiting for Ben Solac. Okay. Locks of the week. I have an idea. Guys on fire. I'm excited. I can't wait to here.

Yeah. What's your idea? Do you want to, we each give our four and then the other one helps us pick which three? I have two and then I have a let I don't even know that I have like I'm just going to I'll do this. Here's what I'll... Do you have two that you feel good about? I have four that I feel good about. Okay. All right.

Here's what we'll do. You give your four, okay? Because there is this one... Did you see this nugget here on the spreadsheet that when you pick a side that is also the same side as my column, you are 72.7% on the season. Although I guess if you're 73% on the season...

I must have... I'm bringing you... down actually. Forget that. I would like to agree, do we want to have an EPT pick? Like, maybe you give me all four. And if one of them is the same side that I'm on, then we do that one. Or maybe you say, I don't want to do that one because she'll's bringing me down. All I wanted, of course, you're eight and one. You decide. I can't decide for you. All I wanted was your help. And you threw like seven different ideas at me that weren't your help. This is parenting. These are my four.

And then if one of those is real eye popping for you, then we'll talk about it. We'll figure it out. And then I'll lock in my three by the end of the show. I like Ravens minus four against the Titans in the London game. I bet on the London game and been successful. I bet on the Ravens and I've not been successful. The Ravens are better than minus four to the Titans. And the Titans are technically like the home team. But again, the game is abroad.

Ravens are second right now on EPA per drive defensively. their second EPA per drive against the past defensively. This Titans team is going to have to be able to run the football as well as they did in seasons past against this unit. And they just don't have that offensive line anymore. Derek Henry is not that guy anymore. I was about to say even if the Ravens play a sloppy offensive game, they should be able to cover this.

That's exactly what they did yesterday last week and then they couldn't get it done. But this is an incorrect line in my opinion. I like the Ravens to be like minus six against the Titans. So I have that. I have Lions minus three against the Bucks. One lost Buccaneers team. Plucky Buccaneers team. lot to like. They played that, that Eagles team and just kind of showed they weren't punching at

the NFC contender weight. I think the same thing they're going to see against the Lions. That minus three as of right now is minus 120 on Fandall, so you're getting the hook, which is nice. You got to push if it ends up being a field goal game, which we haven't had a tie yet. We haven't had a push yet so far bet in this season. Lions minus three. I do like the Falcons minus two and a half against the commanders. A falcons really, really good run defense. I'm going to put the the commanders in a spot where they have to be pass happy. And then it becomes a, okay, are sacks a pressure thing, a defensive line, office line thing, or are they a quarterback thing?

And over the course of data, we know them to be a quarterback thing. The Falcons haven't necessarily been a high sack team, but you expect how well to just take those negative plays, give you short fields and then the ability to control the ball on the other side where, like I said, this commander's passing game is getable. I think that you're going to see a strong ritter game for the second consecutive week. And then they should be able to run the football even against this front, really, really good to getting motion, right, and kind of denying a really good. defensive line by using tricky stuff, by using counter runs and getting outside of the boundary.

So I like the foul against by the two and a half. And then the fourth one is Patriots. Like I said, I'm willing to buy a low on a Patriots team that has them extremely bad and embarrassing losses. But when I put them on paper against the Raiders, they're more talented of a group. They're one of the three teams in the league. They're more talented them. But they are more talented as a group. Raiders coming off of that. You think the Patriots are more talented than the Raiders? I don't know if I agree with that. I don't think they have anybody who's as good as Devonte. but after that, I think that... Or Max Crosby.

Or Max Crosby. I think that offensive line-wise, the Patriots have an advantage. Raiders' offensive line, I know data-wise has held its water. I don't super love what I see on film. In the secondary, Back 7, I think it's a big advantage for the Patriots, even with the Christian Gonzalez's injury. I do think, like, yeah, like, you worry about Devante Adams' takeover game. You always do.

But if there's anything, Belichick has been good over the course of its career, it's taking away the one, right? It's one double 17. It's the ability to neutralize what you do well and force you to play outside of form and the Raiders right now are so No offense in the league is more polarized, more funneled.

They throw to Devonte, Jacoby, and the hand the ball off to Josh Jacobs. They don't do anything else. And I feel like that's simple of an offensive approach is something that Belichx can be able to get his teeth into. And so Patriots plus two and a half for me is the fourth one I like. Those are the four I'm looking at.

And I will finalize my three at some point in the immediate future. Okay. I'm not going in the position to tell you which ones you should pick. That would be stupid. You would be dumb to take my advice there, given how well you're doing. I will just lay out which ones I agree with, which ones I don't agree with. I never go against Vrable or Tomlin as underdogs.

There is a lot of data that they are very good at yucking stuff up, uglying stuff up. Ravens, by the way, we didn't talk about this at the top. These two teams hate each other. They developed a lot of weird rivalry. I covered that playoff game that's 2019. each other's logos, yeah. 100%. Yeah.

It has been, excuse me, it has become a pretty fun rivalry there. I agree with you on the surface that the Ravens are better. Like the Ravens could be 5'0. They have two of the stupidest losses of the season. I think they're a very good team on paper. I say, yes, Ravens, I just don't go against when he's an underdog. You will not hear me make that pick.

Here, it doesn't mean I'm right. I'll be wrong sometimes, but I think overall that is usually a stay away from me. your second game was Falcons Or lions. Lions minus, okay, so this is one I've actually looked at.

So listen, I'm not going to tell you again. I'm not going to tell you what to do. If we get to a point where you say, hey, She'll, let's both go in on this. We can consider that.

Here's my only issue. I think the lions are very good. I agree with you. I think they're better than the bucks. I'm not scared about Jared golf on the road. I think they can win in different ways. I like going with the offensive coordinators who I trust and like.

and Ben Johnson is absolutely in that category. Have you looked at this lion's injury report? Sam LaPorta, ankle, Jemir Gibbs, hamstring, El-Mont-Ross, St. Brown, knee, I think it is? Amon-Rod was a full participant Thursday, so that's good. Offensive line. Frank Ragnow did not, now it says toe resting player, but that's an offensive lineman. Jonah Jackson, ankle, did not participate in practice. Brian Branch did not participate in Thursday's practice.

Laporta, like you mentioned, did not participate. Jemir Gibbs. There's kind of a lot of names on there. I don't know if it's enough to move me off of that lion's pick. I still, if I had to pick a side, I'm definitely taking the Lions, but that did make me a little bit nervous. Falcons commanders, we're just not going to see eye at eye on. I would like to see it for more than one week from Desmond Ritter.

I feel like I fade the Falcons every week, so we're just not going to. I pick the commanders plus two and a half. that's actually a side that I'm considering here. So if you want to go opposite here, Desmond Ritter at home has been very good. So if you want to do that, maybe we consider doing that. I was considering that one as well.

And then your fourth one was... Patriots. Yeah, I did pick the Patriots. I can't get there to make them one of my picks of the week. I think they just could be like the worst team in the NFL. But yeah, I do look at it on paper. I go Beth Bollochack versus McDaniels and Carapal. and he's getting three points.

But I kind of went with that last week. I'm like, ooh, Belichick versus Dennis Allen and Derek Carr with a bad shoulder and he's getting three points. And that did not work out well for me. So you can think about that. I'll give you the two picks I like and then we'll settle on what we want to do.

I'm going Rams minus seven versus the Cardinals. Oh, wow. She'll invade Cardinals mode. Your boy Drew Petsing. At first I looked at it and I said, that's kind of a big number, minus seven. The Rams Eagles fill last week.

The Rams left like five big plays on the field that I think on a normal week they are making those plays. Like they, I'm not going to say they should have, they could have, they could have been a game that could have been a game that came down to like the last two minutes and whoever had the ball. They should have had 24 completions for Matthew Stafford.

They should have had. They really should have. They very much should have. 100%. There's no doubt about a Cooper Cup comes back. He looks really good in that game. They still got Pooka. Kua. I came away from that film, like still feeling good about the Rams offense and what

Sean McVeigh is doing and what Matthew Stafford's doing. How about Stafford, man? We, we probably, if there's a, if there's been a blind spot in the first five weeks of X-Point taking, we haven't done a sit down and been like, do you remember when Matthew Stafford had elbow injuries and back injuries and then walking to the season looks like a top five quarterback? Like, what the heck, man? Yeah. Yeah. No, he's, he is throwing it at a very high level. And to do it without Cooper Cup the first four weeks was very impressive. So you mentioned earlier, the Cardinals defense, you were like, eh, it's okay. I kind of think they stink. Their 30th in DVOA opponents are completing 72% of their passes against Arizona. I don't like love the ski,

more of the coordinators. I just think the Rams are going to be able to put up a lot of, a lot of yards, a lot of points on that defense. Now, the other side of the ball does worry me. You mentioned it. The Cardinals offense says they're doing more with less, no doubt about it. But at some point, does. Like the talent, like at some point you do need the talent. And they might have reached that point. They've been outscored by 33 points over the last two weeks. So I think they can still do more with less, but I still look at it and go, these are the guys you're doing it with.

Man, there's going to be a ceiling and you could just lay a stinker. So I've got Rams in a decisive victory over the Cardinals minus seven. My next pick is probably the biggest square pick I've made like on the podcast so far this season. But I'm taking dolphins minus 13 and a half against the Panthers. I like the double-digit favorites earlier in the season. I think this Dolphins offense is a juggernaut. Again, I mentioned it earlier. You look at the last 10 years, they are first in EPA per drive.

Again, it's only a five-game sample. But look at what they did last week. They had the type of game that usually when you're betting on that team, you go, oh, man, they're having one of these weeks. They're red zone turnover. They're giving the ball away. They're minus three in turnover margin. Every other team that's been minus three or worse this year has lost the football.

game. The dolphins won by 15 points. They can just overcome these Mel. Okay, we turned it over. No big deal. Let's go score. Oh, yeah, we'll need what, four or five plays. Okay, yeah, we'll go score a touchdown here. So I think they're going to go up and down the field on this Panthers defense. And I think the Panthers have just been like a depressing watch. I mean, they don't, they, they're not talented. They have injuries on the offensive line. I'm a little scared at the backdoor cover, which we mentioned earlier with the Thiel and stuff. Like if they're, you know, down by 20 and they score a touchdown? Yeah. Am I scared of that? Yes. But at the same time, I think this one could just be a massive blowout. So those are two of my two picks. I'm taking two big favorites,

which I usually, in this exercise, I usually like to take the dogs more. Right. Yeah. So this is not a good side. Maybe I need to switch something up because it hasn't been working for me. I'm like, I just want to take teams. I kind of believe in. And so those are the two teams I'm taking. All right, where are you? What have you decided? Panthers Dolphins was one where it was the first spot I went looking for props. I want the rushing over for the Dolphins back in that game. The moment I know who that Dolphins back is, right? Jeff Wilson might be coming back off of the injury report here. Devon A. Shane is going to be on IR for the next four weeks. The Panthers are probably the worst run defense in the league on film data-wise, EPA per rush attempt. They're one of

the worst. And then this Dolphins rushing attack is the story under the headline. Like, there's no way the headlines not Tua and Tyreek and the same as it's always been. But like whether it's A Shane or whether it's Moster, whether it's wide receiver Eric Azucanamo, who they'll put back there. This team is running the football really, really, really well. I wouldn't be like, I look for a long time at Tua underpassing yards, just because I think that they're going to be able to run the ball so effectively that it's not going to be a high passing game. And they're still going to generate a big lead and then they're going to sit on the ball in the second half. But you can't take two underpassing yards. It's not a real bet.

That's insane. And so I do like the ability for the Dolvins to really way more so than they did against the Giants throttle the Panthers, control it for four quarters. Rams, Cardinals, I just thought the line was too big. I agree with everything you said. I thought 7 was a lot. For a Rams team that still defensively, just talent-wise is a big question mark. Cardinals team has been plucky. That one fell under the lines too big, you know, numbers too big rule for me.

Okay, I'm definitely taking my line. Here are the other ones I was kind of looking at, just in case any of these peak your interest before you go on the record here. Let's see. Other ones, okay, so we already went over. We both kind of like lines minus three. that Bengals, that it moved to minus two and a half, made me think, oh, I kind of do like that a little bit at two and a half more so than three. I agree that's a coin flip game. I look at the Texans plus one and a half long and hard. And then I said, as much as I like Stroud against Dennis Allen and that defense, can I do it? But I did look at that one long and hard there. We're on opposite sides of Falcons commanders. Okay, those were the, I'm going to choose one of those from my final pick. Go ahead. What are your final three? I do like Texans against the Saints quite a lot. That's one where I like in that game more than the Texans spread, the under at 42 and a half.

But I do think in an under spot, the Texans, obviously the underdog is going to be the team that you prefer in general. And Houston, I think the Saints are pretty overrated. I think the Saints schedule has been really nice to them. And I think that they're in for some awakenings. I think the Texans can start that process. So I do like the Texans of your options there. Okay, I'm definitely taking the Lions, minus three against the bus. Love that I got that line without a three and a half.

A Monroe St. Brown full participant. I think they're going to be fine. Jamir Gibbs doesn't hassle me. They're going to be okay. The other thing is five because that's a win twice over for me. If it wins, great. And also if it wins, I can victory lab, Desmond Ritter. That's awesome.

Now that I know that you're on the other side and you're not a believer. I'm taking it just to make a point. Small favorites have been really nice to me. That's minus three, minus two and a half. I have Ravens minus four and I have Patriots plus two and a half. The correct pick is Patriots plus two. and a half, right? Because of Ray Bowl, because of London. Ravens just burned, mate. And so, like, you feel like you want to go back to the well because you were right on the read. It's just

you didn't get paid off for it. So you got to go get paid off for it. I'll take pages plus two and a half. Let's go sicko mode. Let's let's really test to see how, how, how, how lucky I am right now, bent on a bet on a team that just lost consecutive 34 point games. Uh, yeah, lines minus three, Falcons minus two and a half, pages plus two and a half. Those are the three bets for Ben this week. Ravens are going to cover, though, by the way. I will be on Ravens personally, and they will cover for it. All right. So I have to, I feel like I got to pick a dog for my last one, given that I've taken two favorites. So it's either Texans plus one and a half, or I go commanders plus two and a half in the name of content. Who's more team content than me? Nobody, commanders plus two and a half.

Put it down. Oh, brother. Again, same thing for me. If, the commanders win, then I can make fun of you and all the falcons, hipsters who are saying, he played one good game. They're back. This falcons offense. I don't feel great about it. Commanders. How did we get through this week of games? And we have like Niners, Browns, we have Ravens, we have commanders cowboys. And we just got all of our marbles on commanders falcons. This is sick of behavior. Absolutely absurd. Pathetic. We are small pathetic people. All right. But that's where we landed. All right, really quickly.

Recap all of your picks here, and then I'll go through mine. Zay Flowers is going to have over 56.5. Receiving yards against the Titans. Joe Mixon is going to score a touchdown. The Bengals are going to win. For my long shot, that'll be plus 157. My locks of the week are Lions minus three. Thalcos minus two and a half.

Patriots plus two and a half. And nonsense prediction after the Patriots win that game, Bill Belcher is going to get messy on the podium. Adam Thiel and over five and a half receptions. tune in to that Panthers Dolphins game. Long shot of the week, Devante Smith, 70 plus yards, that's plus 182. I've got Rams minus 7 against the Cardinals.

I've got Dolphins minus 13 and a half against the Panthers. And I've got your boys. Sam Hal going down to Atlanta and taking it to Desmond Ritter and all the hipsters putting on a fake mustache and a plaid shirt at his post-game press conference. Do you think hipsters wear fake mustaches? No, but he doesn't have it. But he doesn't have an actual mustache.

So he's got to do something. You know, like Hal doesn't have a mustache, does he? So you're saying, you're saying mustache is a very hipster thing. That's what you're saying like, yeah, of course it is. All right. You disagree? Of course it is. That's like ninth on the list of things.

I would say like prototypical hipster. All right. All right. Sam Hal listens to vinyl jazz records on his, the night before the game. Yep. I'm trying to think what else. He's wearing, yeah, like a little flannel. Graves an oat milk latte on the way into the stadium, wearing fake glasses,

big blocky glasses. Yeah, drinks pounds of PBR in the locker room after. Yeah. Something like that. Yeah, there you go. We still like you hipsters. I just like to make fun of the football hipsters. That's all.

All right. That's the show for this week. Thank you to Benjamin Solac. Thank you to Cliff Augustine for producing an Eduardo Ocampo for his video production reminder. You can check out videos from the show. We post clips on all the. ringer NFL social media channels on Ben's TikTok on my Instagram. We'll sprinkle them in throughout the week.

So check those out. Additional production supervision by Connor Nevins and Arjuna, Ram Gopal. Next up, Nora and Stephen on Dual Threat Sunday night, recapping the Week 5 games. Be sure to check that out. Thanks to everyone for listening. Have a great weekend.

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