The Ringer NFL Show - NFL Week 7 Picks, Props, and Predictions! | Extra Point Taken

Episode Date: October 20, 2023

Sheil and Ben are getting you ready for Week 7 action with some bold predictions and prop picks. How will the Dolphins fare against the Eagles on the road? Could it be time for Russ to be benched in Denver? Plus, Monday Morning Headlines and Locks of the Week. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please check out theringer.com/RG to find out more, or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Sheil Kapadia and Ben Solak Producer: Cliff Augustin Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Musical Elements: Devon Renaldo Social: Eduardo Ocampo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, everyone, this is Craig Horlebeck from the Ringer Fantasy Football Show. Join me, Danny Hifitz and Danny Kelly every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday to help you win your draft, win your league, and most importantly, avoid that last place punishment. Follow the Ringer Fantasy Football Show on Spotify. Welcome to Extra Point Take it. Shield Kapati here. Join by Ben Solac, it's week seven. We're talking about what we're watching this weekend, making some picks, making some predictions. Uh, Benjamin, I just brewed a pot of coffee without. putting the coffee grounds in. So that is, that's where I'm at this morning. How are you doing? I ran the espresso machine yesterday with no water in it. We're letting, baby. It is, it is week seven,

and we don't know how to operate machinery that we operate on a daily basis, baby. Welcome to football. Welcome to football. Welcome to Week seven. Welcome to Extra Point Taking. All right, you know the drill by now. We're going to get to the headliners. What is on our mind as we look ahead to this week's slate. A lot of, a lot of teams on by this week. And then, you know, And we will get to the betting competition, which, oh, baby, it's heating up here as we look to week seven. So let's get to the good stuff. Then we got, I think you're going to pick one or two games.

We got two, I think, fantastic games this weekend. I'm curious which one is your headliner, whichever one you don't pick. I'll just be honest with the audience. That's going to be my headliner. What are you watching? Yeah, this week seven I'm looking forward to since week six. When in the middle of Sunday's games, I was like, what's going? What's going on next weekend?

I saw Lions, Ravens. I saw Eagles Dolphins. I saw like, all right, cool. This is going to get better. The sun will come up tomorrow. I have Lions of Ravens as my headliner. I think people who are listening to the show, the regular expats will know that I'm dialed in on this game.

I'm a huge believer in the Ravens as a team that has legit contending potential. They are circling around their best game, but through six weeks of the season, they haven't played it. And they've been able to get away with doing that. Great for them. Love that for them. It's like we talked about this with, you know, the Bengals being three and three, the Deros being three and two.

Sometimes you don't play well, but if you keep the win-lost record looking straight, it's okay, right, as you figure things out. So the Ravens haven't played their best game. They've been circling around it. This is an important matchup to get it in those because they're facing the lions. They're facing the lions at home. And the lions might be legitimately very good. And that's why this is my headliner.

This is, I think, the game that we've been looking for, chance for the lions to really figure out how good they are. Now, the Lions have won four consecutive games by double digits. I dropped that stat on last week's show, and it's a big feat to do for any team. It's a really big feat to do for the Lions, who just haven't been consistently that dominant in decades. But after the week one winning against the Chiefs and the Week 2 lost to the Seahawks, they beat the Falcons, the Lions, and the Buccaneers.

The problem with the Falcons, the Packers, the Lions, and the Buccaneers, is that I'm not sure how real those teams are, right? Though I don't really see a legit playoff team in that group, right? Seahawks, I think are a team that's on that fringe, obviously they play the Lions tight, and then the Chiefs for a team that's on that fringe and they play the Lions to one point. The Lions, probably the hottest team that they're going to play, the best and most successful team in terms of where they are on their season arc is this upcoming Ravens team.

The matchup really to watch here is this passing offense for the Lions against the passing defense of the Ravens. This from Kevin Ostriker, I apologize if I could not say your name correctly. He's the host of Lockdown Ravens. The Ravens through six weeks of the season, they are first in net yards allowed for pass attempt. They are first in a touchdown percentage allowed per pass, second yards per completion, and third in opposing quarterback rating. This has been an extremely good Ravens pass defense. But if we go and we do the Ravens schedule analysis, well, guess what? We find Joe Burrow on a

on a bad leg. We find Dorian Thompson, right? We find Gardner Minshu instead of Anthony Richardson. We find Ryan Tannihil and then Malik Willis. We find CJ Stroud, but it was his first career start. They've also had a little bit of a schedule where you're like, all right, who's really pushed the buttons on this passing attack, right? Who's really tested the corners, right? And given Brandon Stevens, who's tested tonight season, the opposite outside corner, a run for his money,

he plays the nickel for them, who's really sat behind that pass rush and made sure that Jadavian Clowney and Kyle Van Nuoy and Odafei Owe, who's back in practice week, are enough to be like a legitimate pass rush in this league. So it's a big litmus test for the Lions. But it's also, in some ways, a big litmus test for the Ravens.

I think there's a world where the Lions win this game comfortably, do so through the passing game. And we have questions about that Ravens past defense, which has played so great, but has relied on some names that we were all worried about coming into the season. So big litmus test game for the Lions. In some ways, litmus test game for the Ravens as well, who really need to start actually coming into form here. We have to stop seeing it in theory, actually see it in practice. Yeah, I think you framed it well the way I look at this game and like what's at stake for both teams. For the Lions, it's like how I think about them. You know, I'm with you.

I think if they win this game and you said, you know, there's a chance they go in and win convincingly. Like, if they do that, I want to be like, hey, you know, one of us might have a take on Monday. Lions belong in the top tier of the NFC with the Niners and the Eagles and whoever else you want to put in there. Like I do think it has that type of potential for them. I am a believer and I think you hit the matchup, right?

I mean, this lion's offense, 29 completions of 20 plus yards on the season. That leads the NFL. It's more than the dolphins. Think of whatever high-powered offense you want to think about. Ben Johnson, Jared Goff, this supporting cast, which again, no one would say, hey, this is the best group of wide receivers in the NFL or the best group of pass catchers. But man, they absolutely make it work. So I'm very excited about this matchup.

And for the Ravens, like you said, this isn't, I don't think this game is going to change how I think about the Ravens. Like, I think the Ravens are a very good team. I think the Ravens are going to make the playoffs. I think the Ravens will be there. in the end. At the same time, they kind of need to stack some more wins because they had two of the stupidest losses any team has had this entire season. And so, you know, they are right now, obviously in first place here in the AFC North, but the Steelers are three and two. The Browns are

three and two here. The Bengals, we're not going to count out the Bengals quite yet either. So in terms of the Ravens, again, it's not going to change how I view them, but they just need to win games. They need to continue to stack wins and show everyone that they're the team we're thinking about. Is this one of your, do you have like another segment on this in one of our gambling portions or do we want me to ask you now, which, which, how you think this game shapes out? I'm not touching this game on the spread because me either. Too hard. No chance. This is, I, what game that I say is about last week where I was like, oh, it was Seahawks Bengals, right, where I was like, I'm not touching this on the spread. And then lo and behold, if I had,

holy smokes, Seahawks not covering in that game. They get out of the red zone multiple times. I would have been livid. And so happy I didn't. Lions and Ravens is the same feeling for me. I know that there's been a lot of sharp money on Lions plus three. My numbers tell me Lions plus three. I will believe it when I see it.

I got in a lot of trouble, okay? Because on the Thursday pod, or no, what's today, Friday? On the Monday pod, I said I hope the Lions beat the Ravens by 20. And I said it within a context. I said it within a construction of like in the hypothetical in which the Lions be the Ravens 520. It will be very helpful to me as an analyst and therefore very pleasing to me because I will have to do less work because things will be obvious. And then I got yelled at by several Ravens fans. Oh.

So I personally think that the Ravens are going to cover this at three. Jot that down, Metropolitan Baltimore. Put that in the newspaper. Yeah, put that in the newspaper. Put that in the Baltimore's one, my former employer. this will not show up later in the show for me now. Okay, yeah, me neither. I pick every game for the ringer.com.

You can check out all my picks there. I took Lions Plus 3. I did not feel confident at all about it. I think these are two of probably the best eight teams in the NFL. And I'm excited to watch this game. And really, there's no outcome here that would totally surprise me. All right. So since you took that game, I'm going to go with the other,

what I think is the obvious headliner. for Sunday. Eagles first dolphins, panic, it's either going to be panic, it's either going to be panic about the Eagles, hysteria about the dolphins, or everybody just settle the frick down, okay? It's going to be one of those three outcomes are going to unfold on Sunday night. So you've got this Dolphins team averaging 37.2 points per game. Most of any offense through six weeks in the last 10 seasons. The offense appears to be scary. good. They passed the eye test. They pass the, hey, our other teams just kind of watching the dolphins film every week and trying to copy what they do. Yes, that is absolutely happening

around the NFL. However, Ben, you know, you mentioned some of the strength of schedule stuff there when talking Lions Ravens. You could make kind of that case for the dolphins. The dolphins win so far have been over the Chargers, Patriots, Broncos, Giants, and Panthers. Those teams are a combined five and 24 on the season. Those five teams. I mean, that has not been the hardest slate of opponents for the Miami Dolphins. Now, again, you watch them, I watch them. And it's like, no, no, no, I think this team is really good.

I don't really care who they're playing right now. But the question is going to be, you know, can they legitimately contend for a Super Bowl? It looks that way so far, but you would like to see them go on the road against the defending NFC. champions, a very good Eagles team, and win that football game. Just a couple weeks ago, they go on the road to Buffalo and they kind of get waxed in that game, although I don't think the final score was totally indicative of, you know, the way like two and a half quarters was going in that game, but still, I think they lost 48 to 20 in that game. And then we have the Eagle. The Eagles have one of the hardest remaining schedules in the NFL. I mean, just a gauntlet coming

up of tough opponents. It's going to be fun for us to talk about on the ringers, Philly special, is it going to be fun for the Eagles? I don't know about that. They've got a banged up secondary, specifically at safety. Right now, you don't want to be banged up at safety going up against this Dolphins team. So that's obviously huge. Now, the other side of the ball is where it's interesting. I think some stuff has been a little bit overstated with how much this Eagles offense has struggled so far. You know, there's still fifth in success rate. They're sixth in EPA per drive. They're seventh in offensive DVOA. It doesn't look the same as last year. no doubt about it. The passing game specifically doesn't look as good as last year.

But I don't think this Dolphins defense is amazing. I think this sets up for the Eagles to be able to sustain some long drives here. And I think it's going to be a pretty good game. So I think if the Eagles beat the Dolphins, we're going to be saying, all right, calm down. The Eagles are fine. And calm down. The Dolphins aren't quite there yet. I think if the dolphins beat the Eagles, it's going to be, oh, no, his Eagles team. They don't have it this year. They don't look like they did last year. and it's going to be, oh, the dolphins, start putting them in your top list of Super Bowl contenders. Yeah, I very much agree that, like, I think the Dolphins offense has enjoyed some easier opponents, right? You get to play the Giants, you get to play the Panthers, the Broncos.

This is just a very nice schedule. But I think we all know that this offense works. Yeah, no doubt. And it's not a cupcake thing. With the Eagles, I agree. I've been more critical of the offense than you have, but this is a defensive matchup on which they should be successful. You can run the ball against this Dolphins team. You should run the ball against this Dolphins team.

team and be successful. And then you can find wins in the passing game because secondary-wise, they don't have Jalen Ramsey. Xavier Howard's been banged up. He did not practice on Wednesday, limited on Thursday. Cater Coe, who's been banged up. He was a limited practice, Wednesday, limited practice on Thursday. They're dealing with injuries in the secondary the same way the Eagles are.

And then they also don't have the ringer, right? They don't have the star talent that they wanted to have there in Ramsey. And so you expect this to be a game where you can run the rock and dominate with AJ Brown. Guess what the Eagles have been doing for all their offensive success has been predicated on those two ideas, right? So it is a good matchup. The first thing I took when this line opened, this was like two weeks ago, was the over in this game. This is going to be a lot.

Sicko. You sicko. Chill. Okay. Okay. You're telling me right now, listen, right now, if you could write the week eight picks column, you wouldn't write it. You wouldn't get good lines right now knowing what you know, expecting what you expect from week seven. You wait until the last second, get no closing last.

line value? Well, listen, my writing style, as editor Lindsay Jones would know, is to wait, yes, wait until the last second on pretty much everything. So if you're asking me if I would add additional work to my plate on a Friday, the answer is no. But if you're asking me, would it be beneficial to have those lines? Obviously, yes, that would be nice. We say, we can scroll through right now and do a little preview at week eight, right? For example, the Seattle Seahawks are minus one and a half against the Cleveland Browns when Deshaun Watson's probably going to come back from that game. I think that's very suspicious. I personally would think that the Brown should be favorite of DeJohn Watson's

playing. Anyway, I took the over in this game a couple weeks ago. I think this is an absolute overspot. I do think this is a more important game for the Eagles than it is for the dolphins, though, when we start talking about those stakes, obviously the dolphins lose to the Eagles, there's no way around the fact that they've played two legit playoff teams, too legit contenders, and they've lost both of them. But no matter under what context, this Dolphins team enters the playoffs, there's still going to be a team where it's like, okay, you've got to worry about the Dolphins because they just could drop a 40 on your head, right? I mean, ask the bills who got Skyler Thompson in the playoffs and we're sweating him in the wildcard round into

a three-point win a game where everybody scored 30 points. So even if the Dolphins lose to playoff contenders this season like consistently in the regular season, I still am not in a spot where I want to draw them in the postseason, right? I'm still in a spot where I'm worried about that team just because of the explosive sporting potential versus the Eagles who the Eagles lose this game and now they're a two lost team and they're looking at such a challenging schedule. that's more of a, oh, are they just not the same group that they were last season? And so while a loss still matters to the dolphins, they do have a level of invulnerability. We start talking about contenders.

We're like, okay, their defense isn't real. They're probably not going to make a run, but I sure don't want to play them because of the sporting potential. Yeah, no, no doubt about it. I mean, as long as the health has always been the thing and it's been, you know, as long as, it feels like as long as two is healthy, as long as Tyreek Hill is healthy. those two guys, they're going to be in pretty good shape offensively. It has been fun to watch. It's been dynamic to watch.

There's no doubt about it. So that's another game to keep an eye on. All right, before I move on, it's time for a special part of today's episode presented by State Farm. Benjamin, you know, there's a lot of things that are good together. But what is a dynamic duo you've got your eye on this weekend? It could be from the games we just talked about. It could be from a game we haven't gotten to yet. What's a dynamic duo you like?

I should be like Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelsey. They should put them on a commercial State Farm should, which objectively, the Mahomes Ma'Ato commercial is good. Not a lot of commercials are. I do enjoy that one. My dynamic duo is actually from this game. This is Tyree Kill and Jalen Waddle, who last season, if you remember, Shil,

when we were at this stage last year, five, six weeks into the season, we were talking about the fact that Tyree Hill was leading the league in Target share, right? No team through to their receiver more than the Dolphins who to Tyree Kill. And he was going to lead the league in receiving yards, and he was going to lead the leads in yards per target. And the whole time, Jalen Waddle was just, like, fourth in all of the same metrics. Like, they had the top guy and then another top five guy.

And it was astonishing. We had, like, never seen a team be that pass funneled before. One of the things that you've seen this season is Tyreek Hill just set the NFL record, like, since the merger for receiving yards through six games, or through five games, excuse me. And now they're looking at game six for hell. And it's just been a little bit of a quieter season for Waddle. He's got 35 targets to Hills 59.

He has 296 yards to Hills 814. But when you start looking through the game logs, like he had nine targets last week, six of those came in the first half. He had 10 targets the week previous. Seven of those came in the first half. They just don't need to use Waddle in the second half of these games where they're already up by 20, right? They just go run the football and then the Tyreek Hill layup mode.

In games in which they're going to be more challenging. challenge. We expect them to be against the Eagles. In games like this, where you think they're going to be throwing the ball and be in a neutral game group for four quarters, I think Waddle's going to bloom. I think we're going to be reminded of what Waddle was for this team last season. And I think as what Hill continues to post these records and you see teams just skew resources his direction and tilt coverage his direction, we'll be reminded that unlike how the Vikings can't really punish you when you're over aggressive on Justin Jefferson, the Rams before Pooka and Akua couldn't really punish you when you were over and aggressive on Cooper Cup, this Dolphins team, if you decide to

sell out to stop Tyreek Hill, they have a guy who's like 92% as fast and 95% is quick, and he's over the middle of the field. He can break some tackles in Jalen Waddle. It's such a nightmare to think that you can solve the Hill problem and just still give up huge production to this team because of the presence of Waddle. That's by a dynamic duo for the week. Yeah, so much of what they do is just based on how fast those two guys are. If you look at it, Tua is getting rid of the ball in 2.37 seconds. the fastest of any quarterback in the NFL. Guess what? Usually when you see that, it's like, okay, it's the ball control, get the ball.

No, no, no, no. They are making plays downfield because in 2.37 seconds, those two guys can get down the field pretty far. I mean, they've got eight plays of 50 plus yards this season. No other team has more than three. Again, speed, speed. It's like from the beginning of time with football, it's been speed. I don't know that we've ever seen it quite like this with those two guys, Tyreek Hill and Jail and Waddle. another dynamic dual, Ben, I wanted to bring attention to, and I'm going to talk about this team

a little bit later. What Matthew Stafford is, Stafford and McVeigh still got it? I mean, I didn't think they were still going to have it this year. You know, I was making the, hey, Mike McDaniels, the new McVeigh take last year. It was like, is McVeigh even going to be in the league this year? We didn't know. That is a top five offense by every metric so far this season. Stafford looks great. He obviously got Cooper Cup back last week. But how surprised are you that Stafford and McVeigh are having the season they're having. I think both of us were pretty low on that Rams offense going into the season. It's funny. Like independently, I'm not actually that surprised about either because like Stafford for me was a health thing. He's quite good if he's healthy. I just thought he wasn't

going to be healthy. And like that's the surprise for me. And then McVeigh was like a disposition thing, a motivation thing. It's like, okay, I know he's a good coach, but I'm worried that like just he's lost the fire here in Los Angeles with the team in its current state. Once you overlap them, I was like, okay, it's going to be so hard for the Rams to get this back because they might get healthy Stafford, but I don't know if they're going to get engaged McVay, and they might get engaged McVay, but I don't know if they're going to healthy Stafford. It's the confluence.

It's the aligning of the stars. All of the credit, which, by the way, goes to Pugunakua. I am working on a Pooka Nakuwa save the Rams franchise take where it's like, well, think about it. Yeah. He, like, Van Jefferson and Tutu Atwell, Ben Skoronic, the receivers available, once Cooper Cup went down, the non-Pooka Nukuoka Nakuwa receivers. Once they went down, like Stafford didn't really like throwing to any of those dudes last year. He could have just been sad Stafford and they're not producing at all and they're losing a bunch of games.

And McVeigh's like, we're trading Aaron Donald. Puga kept everybody happy. Just happy Puga-Kua, great hair, catcher footballs, Rams are winning games, got Cooper Cup back, and now they feel legit. It's very sweet. Tapuga Nakua, the secret wizard behind the McVeigh-Stafford duo. He deserves all the credit. Yeah, there you go. That's another one. Cup and Nakua. I mean, that's another one to keep an eye on. So we got a lot cup and Nakua. We got Hill and Waddle. We got McVeigh and Stafford. But you know what else, Ben, is better together. Home and Auto insurance. And with the State Farm Personal Price Plan, bundling home and auto is just another way to save. It's a pro move when it comes to saving money, letting you call the place. you can choose the coverage that fits your needs at a price you can afford. Talk to a state farm

agent today to learn how you can bundle and save with the personal price plan. Like a good neighbor, state farm is there. Prices are based on rating plans that vary by state. Coverage options are selected by the customer. Availability, amount of discounts and savings, and eligibility vary by date. All right. Let's take a quick break. We will come back. We will talk more about week seven in the NFL. The NFL season is going strong and Fandall wants to help you enjoy it even more with two great offers. Right now, new customers can bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets guaranteed, plus all customers get a profit boost every day so you can boast your winnings even more. Later in the slate, we will talk about what we like for the NFL weekend.

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Next up here, Monday morning storyline. What do you got, Benjamin? I have the four and two Steelers, which I'm not into emotionally, personally. Okay, this is not serve my agendas. It serves Shields agendas, which I have typically reticent to do. Listen, there may be some surprises for you.

We're going to be talking way too much about that game in this podcast. I might have some surprises up my sleeve, but go ahead. We might be op-on this one. It's on my list. Steelers are visiting the Los Angeles Rams. They are underdogs by three. They are coming off of the buy. I like this matchup a lot for Pittsburgh.

The Cooper Cup, Huka Nakua, Stafford trio, as we discussed, like, that's a scary thing through the air. And Steelers cover corner and coverage success, I think, is the spot where you're worried about it. But with the injuries that the Rams have accrued at running back, right? Kairn Williams, who's been the bell cow back for them, will not be available for this game. He's been legitimately like one of the most funneled backs in the league.

Like, Kyron Williams. I don't know why the Rams is ever. I have no idea how McVeigh's managers running back room over his career makes no sense to me. But like Kyron William gets like 95% of the touches for the Rams. He's gone. And the guy who was his backup running Rivers also won't be available. So the Rams are on rookie Zach Evans and then a couple of practice squad additions in Daryl Henderson and Miles Gaskin to run the football in this game.

Behind an offensive line that is performing positively. I think the Rams Offens Offens line is definitely playing better than we expected, but I think it's still a net negative and a net loss against the Steelers pass rush. I think Stafford's going to end up dropping back and throwing it a ton and they're going to find success in the air in those matchups, but you lose to attrition against the Steelers team. If the Steelers know you're one dimensional and they have the ability to fly and hit you, especially Stafford and accumulate body blows after body blows, and we know that Stafford plays this way, which kind of hangs in the pocket, takes those shots. We saw that against the Eagles. it requires a lot of really impressive accuracy, really far down the field really consistently. They'll have those drives and then they'll lose those drives.

It's a bad matcher for the Rams offense. They're not going to have that running game the way they need to. And then offensively for the Steelers, I, again, do I like the way I feel about what I'm about to say? No. Welcome to my world. Yeah, this is a little roll reversal. I like it.

You have to be better at something out of the buy, right? Like you have, Deonté, Deonté, Deonton's back. Okay, okay, but come on. Deontagne Johnson's back. You had two weeks to look at this. There's such easy fruit on the tree. There's low-hanging fruit.

They've had two years to look at this, Ben. Not two weeks. They've had two years to look at this. I think the return of Deonti Johnson's going to help us pass the game a lot. I think that you've seen them get Jalen Warren more involved consistently, but also Nashi Harris has had some springy legs the last few weeks. I think that they're going to be able to put up points on the board to keep this thing close. I would not be surprised if we get the four and two Steelers.

And the reason why that's a headline is just because, obviously, this AFC North right now is everybody's 500 or better. The Browns are, uh, oh, Rick, we do the Browns have this week. I was just talking with the Calshounds. The Colts. Thank you. I was just talking with a look ahead and live with the Seahawks. I was like, that's not their opponent this week.

Who's this week? Browns have the Colts. That's potentially a win, but those Ravens have the Lions. We could be looking at the four and three Ravens, the four and two Steelers and the four and two Browns coming off of this week. And I think that that AFC North is a is a division that's delivering on expectation when we talk about some of these records here. But the, the Steelers in particular, I'm interested.

to see how they look after the spy. Well, as someone who picked the Steelers to make the playoffs and is now having a lot of regrets, I wouldn't be, I would be happy with that. That would be a nice outcome from me. Last shield, just grabbing that four and two record for his boys. I'm going to talk about that game coming up in our other, in some of our betting categories. So I'm not going to touch too much on it there other than what you said. All right, here's my Monday morning storyline.

The Giants are trading Sequin Barclay. No, I don't know if the trade I don't know if the trade's going to be announced Monday morning. Here's what I think it could be. It could be one of those. Yeah, go ahead. Walk me through this because I woke up to

like a headline of like, Sequel and Barclay, quote, I don't want to be traded. And I was like, did I miss a previous news cycle? Like, did that happen? I wasn't around. The same thing happened to me. I'm like, wait, what?

Was he going to be traded? Why are we talking about this? Then I thought it. Then I started prepping for the show and I go, wait a minute. You know what? Why would they hold on to Sequin Barclay? Their team stinks.

They're one in five. The Giants are three-point underdogs at home against the commanders. Barclay did this, you know, remember he had that redone contract before the season where it was like, wait, is this actually a win for the running back? Or did he just kind of cave and he's not tagged? But that's a, so he just got, it's a one-year deal. It was this year. It had some incentives baked in.

That's basically all that he got. But it's a very tradable contract. And these two sides have been talking contracts for a long time. They should have a good idea right now about whether they think Sequin Barkley is going to be on their team in 2024 and beyond. And given that they couldn't reach a deal so far and that Barclay has had some injuries this year and hasn't been the same guy he was last year, I have a hard time believing that that's something that would really get done long term. So I think if you're the Giants, you absolutely have to consider it. Like, can you get something back for Seekwan Barkley here at the trade deadline?

one of the teams I wrote down is a team you just mentioned with some running back injuries. Would the Los Angeles Rams be injured? And would they pivot a little bit and say, yeah, yeah, I know we're going to be patient, but we could still use a running back here if we think that our guy, Karen Johnson, it's going to be out for a while. Are there other teams? Would the Baltimore Ravens have any interest in a Sequin Barclay as they make this push? They lost J.K. Dobbins for the season.

With the Buffalo Bill, I mean, James Cook has played pretty well, but would they say, you know what? Yeah, let's make a little push here. Our window is open. Those are just some of the teams I wrote down, but when I read that headline, and again, I was just like, you, Sequin Barclay says he doesn't want to be traded. Wait a minute.

Could Seyquan Barclay be traded? I was like, yeah, no, no, he should be traded. They should trade him and someone should trade for him if he's healthy. He came back last week, assuming that, you know, his injury stuff is good and that he can play here. So what do you think? You seem to like that Ravens idea.

I did, yeah, yeah. I'd be surprised if the Rams are in just because I think Kyron Williams has been directed for them. Yeah, and the Ravens have enjoyed, I think the Ravens have gotten more from Gus Edwards and Justice Hill than they probably expected.

They've also not got a back that's had more than 50 rushing yards yet this season. So that kind of tells you where expectations were. I didn't realize that. It's because they belk out. It's because they split the carries between them. And then they incorporate Lamar. So again, they've had like productive outings, but they're all like,

nine for 40 yards and then that's it right they haven't had a guy who like really like dominates from that position and they obviously want that because they had daubbins and and they wanted to use daubbins like that and if they get barclay who you're worried about barkley getting nicked up constantly well you have Gus Edwards and you have Justice Hill so I think it makes a lot of sense I also like the size aspect of it this uh it's always nice when the ravens get Gus Edwards in there because you're like a big big one because the rest of like Mark andrews is small for the tight end position all the receivers are light for the wide receiver position it's nice when I think they have a little bit of better size between the tackles

I like that a lot. In regards to whether or not the Giants would move them, they obviously should. I don't know if they will. And I don't know if Barkley... I do know Barkley doesn't want to be moved because that's the only headline I've read on this. No, but when you were talking about the Ravens,

I was just thinking about it. Like, if you're Barclay, you're like, yes, please, I will go join a Lamar Jackson rushing attack and get my numbers up, up, up, maybe playing the playoffs this year as I enter free agency. So obviously, I mean, everybody's going to say that, you know, in that spot that, no, no, no, I don't want to be.

traded, I want to be a giant. But man, if you're thinking about that thing financially and we've had the discussions about running backs and contracts and everything, like, that Ravens offense is a great place to be if you're someone who's trying to, you know, contribute and get your numbers up in like, what, the last 10 weeks of the season or so. Yeah, I think that if the giants move off of Berkeley, because he's on the tag after giving Daniel Jones the contract. So he's not on the, he's not technically on the tag. Oh, excuse me. Not on the tag. Yeah. But it's similar. Yeah.

Yes. On the tag plus, on the tag enhanced, which is what we do when we tag people now. It's like, here, Josh Jacobs. Here's another $900,000. Congratulations. I will never shut up about that decision for as long as I live. I will call it the worst offseason of all time. I find it.

It's so funny to me that they fell into this this badly. There you go. All right. So we'll say. Maybe something. I was debating a few players about like who. Because I do think it's going to heat up next week. And I'm sure we'll talk about the later.

latest rumors on Monday's show. All right. It is time for the, we still don't have a name for the EPT betting game. What did Luke our spreadsheet guy name? He named it something, didn't he? Oh, he named the two be named competition. In 2023, two be named competition. There you go. I like that. It's like the Washington football team. Bed and shield predict games with fan dual lines. That if you wanted to bet on you can, not necessarily saying we're betting on them. I promise you mom, I'm not betting competition. which is now currently tied through six weeks. Six weeks in the season is 20 to 20.

Shield roars back, which let's quick huddle, okay? If you get hot the way I get hot, the way I got hot last few weeks, I won't bring it up constantly. I won't mention it at the top of every pod because you know not to do that when the pitcher's pitching a no hitter.

You know what I say, it's going to break him. And you trailing, trying to get back in the competition, everywhere. I'm like, Ben's doing so well. Ben's perfect against the, spread. And the worst week of the season for either one of us was me last week. First of all, hold on. I can't let you go any longer. That is a lie because you made a youthful mistake and you

tweeted out. I saw this. You know, I'm not as online as you, but you tweeted out your eight and one record the previous three weeks on Sunday morning. And I knew at that time I go, all right, well, I'm coming back. I'm store. You can't do that then. I started it. I'm going to do that. I was going to You did it first? I'm allowed to do it. I'm like the wingman. I'm propping you up. No, no.

Yeah. That was not wingman behavior at all. That was nuke the street behavior and you know it. All right. That's true. Oh, friendly shield. Friendly neighborhood uncle shit. Oh, what a supportive guy.

No chance. You knew exactly what you were doing. Oh, wow. The pitcher hasn't thrown a strike in four innings. Yeah, okay. That was. It was a reverse jinx. I was absolutely trying to do it.

I don't know if it would have succeeded. but I do think you kind of fell into the trap. Next time, you just got to let it go, ignore it. No, no, I'm not doing good. Nothing's happening here. You'll learn. You'll learn. He's going to take it up for my column.

Yeah, I think that scared you a little bit too. You're like, I'm not doing that. I will tank this week if I have to. All right, go ahead. Week six in review. Ben got one thing right. It was the Lions minus three against the Buccaneers, which is nice because that was one of the bigger bets of the week.

Falcons minus two and a half against the commanders. Desmerer throws three picks. Patriots plus 2.5 against the Raiders. They're down by two and Matt Jones takes a safety on the last drive of the game. Do you understand what Shield gets when he asks the universe for things?

How ordained this man is? Anyway, my prop of the week was Zayflowers over 56 and a half receiving yards the end of the day with 50. And then I had the Bengals money line parlay with Joe Mixing anytime touchdown score. The Bengals threw a play action pass to Andre Yosebosubas

the side of the two years. yard line. Sometimes the cookie crumbled. Shield on the week. Sweeps, locks of the week. Rams minus seven against the Cardinals. Dolphids minus 13 and a half against the Panthers. And of course, commanders, the spite pick plus two and a half against the Falcons. 70 plus receiving yards for Devon DeSmith on the long shot was a miss.

But over five and a half receptions for Adam Thielen, which I took personally during the show because it was such a nice pick. Cash is in the first half. Absolute slam dunk for Mr. Capadia. It is now 20 to 20. If you were betting on our picks, actually, you'd be up more units with me than would be with Shield, just an FYI.

But altogether, it is tied as we step into Week 7. Yeah, overall against the spread, you're at 67%. I'm at about 56%. Combined, we're at 61.3, Ben, that's good. That's above where we wanted to base. That's nice. Let's keep that going here. You are, by the way, on stupidest,

bets that anyone has ever made, you are three for three. I don't think I have one of those this week, unfortunately. Shield just throws things, and you're just like, oh, stupidest bet. Oh, Ben's, Ben's leading. What can possibly happen? Ridiculous. I don't, I don't resort to such tricks. I get by my bets the honest way. I absolutely do resort to such tricks. All right. So, that's how it works. The prop of the week and the locks of the week, which are just against the spread. Those are each worth one. And then we have a long shot of the week that has to be plus 150 or higher odds, that is worth three points. So you can have a total of seven points in any given week.

All right, Benjamin, start us off with your prop of the week. What do you got? Yeah, Ben, a hot second since your boy hit a prop of the week, not liking how that feels, because I'm supposed to be good at these. I really like Rahim Mostert over 12 and a half receiving yards in the Dolphins Eagles game. I'm going to be on this Dolphids Eagles game in every single segment here. Reheme Moster gets used primarily in the backfield for the dolphins, but the Dahlves are also doing a lot of two-back and even three-back stuff when they have full-back Alec Engeld on the field where they'll put some of their backs in like an H-back position and then they motion them around and they put them in the flats and they just do a lot of like weird

stuff with them accordingly. Third on the team right now in targets is Rahim Moster with 20, right? It's Tyree Killett, it's 60, Jay and the Wattle of 35 and then Rahim Moster and Brackson Barrio also tied with 20 targets each. The absence of Devon A-Shane means that they've lost a little bit of that speed element. They were lining A-Shane up as a sniffer, as an back in the slot, putting a bunch of emotions. They don't have that aspect anymore. They still have Salvin Ahmed in their running back room to pull off some of that, but that role is a little bit more open.

And Jeff Wilson, potentially coming back from injury for this game against the Eagles, Wilson's a larger back, is a power back. He's going to eat in some of Mosert's true backfield snap, some of his true carries. And accordingly, I think you're to see Mostert lined up on the outside a little bit more. Moster's had at least three targets in three of the last four games. He's had over 12 and a half receiving yards in all of the last four games for the dolphins. I just think I want to be exposed to this Dolphins passing game six different ways by Sunday. I'm fine on Tua passing overs. I'm fine on two of passing touchdowns. I'm fine on

on Tyreek. We're going to get more to that a second. But this most are aligned to me is one that's just pretty cut and dry. He's going to be on the field a ton for a lot of passing downs as a player that two likes to throw the ball to who doesn't always line up in the backfield. It's just a great spot for him to catch a screen, take the wind out of this pass rush a little bit, catch a jet pass, take the past wind down its pass rush a little bit, flip over the corner, get past Nicholas Morrow, 14 yards, and then we all get to go to sleep and go home. So Rahim Boster over 12 and a half yards is one I like quite a bit.

12 and a half, I think that's a good one given the Eagles linebacker situation. Also, what you just mentioned, I mean, slowing down that path. If there's any hope for the Eagles defense in this game, it is that their pass rush dominates. Mike McDaniel will know that. How do you slow down the pass rush? Well, Ben just mentioned it. Get to the boundary.

Maybe a screen on like the first possession. I could even say, you know, they say, hold on. You can't just tee off on our guy here. So I like that one. All right. Guess what, that way? You run a screen on the Eagles first.

I guess what the line's going to do the rest of the game. T off. That's right. All right. That's out of the way. Yeah. You still got to do it. Yeah.

All right. Now, I've got, and this is what I was alluding to earlier. I think we might be on a little. Actually, I don't know. You might like this one. I'm going Matthew Stafford over 260. Point five passing yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Stafford has averaged 279. point five passing yards this season. We already talked about it. Cooper Cup is back. They've got Puka Nakua. They're banged up at running back. I think they're going to need to pass the football in this game. It looks like I guess Zach Evans is most likely to be starting at running back for the Los Angeles Rams. I look at the Steelers defense.

Good defense. I don't know that it's a great defense. Five starting quarterbacks against them have averaged 264.2 yards per game this season. So they've gone over that number that is listed. for Matthew Stafford. Another thing to keep an eye on, if you're thinking about this one as it approaches game time, keep an eye on T.J. Watts, status.

He had a heel injury, apparently suffered at some point this week where he didn't practice on Thursday. So it's, you know, if he doesn't play, man, then I like love this because they are just a different defense without T.J. Y. Even if he does play, it looks like he probably will not be at 100 percent, although obviously there's a scenario where the Steelers defense gets after Matthew Stafford. but I just really like this Rams passing offense. We mentioned it earlier.

The other thing I like about this one, the Steelers are going to give them plenty of opportunities. I mean, they're going three and out, 46.7% of their offensive possessions. That's the highest rate in the NFL. So maybe they figured something out in the byway, like Ben alluded to. Maybe they don't figure that much out.

And even if the Rams have some bad possessions in there, guess what? It's okay. You're going to get more opportunities in this game to get the ball to throw the football. So I've got Stafford over 260. point five. Yeah, I, uh, I don't, I don't want to be over indexed on the potential of like the

Steelers offense to be better because I like, you don't want to just go crazy on that. I do think they're not going to have three and outs on 42% of their drives against this ram's offense. 46.7. 46% of their drives. I did not know when I was talking about Steelers out of the top. I did, I missed that T.J. Watt heel injury. I didn't see that when I was prepping yesterday.

So that's a, that's a very good call out. That definitely I would affect the way that I would think about how this game would go. In general, I do like the Stafford over just because of, of, uh, expected game script and like you said and the lack of the running back like I just think like Derek Carr threw the ball 55 times last night I think safferm I threw the ball 55 times uh you're just going to see high volume and even if we're getting drives that end in sacks and drives the end in turnovers which I think is a pretty standard expectation now for kind of this ram's team uh you still have the ability to accumulate yardage so I don't I don't mind that look at all I think

that's actually a smart look whether you're on the steeler side or the ram side of things because it's very hard to find a world in which this game is just not a high stafford usage game you're car was very upset and that we didn't even talk about that Thursday night game. My goodness, it's rare you see it. Just after every play, he was yelling at somebody. I have a take. Okay. What do you got? Performative. Oh, I like it. Primetime cameras. He knows the, he knows the offense isn't playing that well. Time to get fun, time to get a little fired up, trying to try to, time to get a point going. I mean, like, he got hurt after like three bad throws last night. I don't know, Derek. What are we doing, dude? I just play. I don't know. I wasn't

enjoying how it was looking. Yeah, that was not a fun watch if you're a Staines fan. All right, let's get to the money ball. Pick of the week as we did, you know, three point contest, the multicolored ball, that counts for more. This is the long shot of the week. Again, this has to be plus 150 or better. How many of these have we hit? Then we've each hit, let's see, you have hit two, and I have hit two. We're each two for six so far on this season. I'm kind of feeling good about we're going to hit some, hit some long shots this week. What do you have for this one? Yeah, my, the way, the one that I had built out was over plus 150 last night and then I checked it again this morning. So I wanted to make sure and it was no longer over plus 150. I had one of those

two. I had to do a little bit of an adjustment. So I have, I have two and I would like your help. Okay. Do you actually want my help? Do you want me to try to see? screw you over? Like, tell me exactly what you're, I don't, I don't, I don't expect you to actually provide

legitimate help when I ask. Okay, I don't know. I've, I've, I've, disabused myself of that notion a long,

long time ago. All right. Plus 154 is Tyreek Hill to have eight plus receptions and a hundred plus receiving yards. Okay.

Okay. Now, he's done that three times this season out of six games. Oh my goodness. Which is just the best way to be, right? Taking a long shot, it's happened 50% of the time. You generally feel good about that. I can also do that right there is the high volume game, eight plus receptions, right?

I can also do five plus receptions, 125 plus yards, which is something that he's done four times out of six games this season. That's plus 179, which is a very big number. That is the high volume game. or excuse, that's the, the, the, uh, explosiveness game, right? I personally lean towards the explosiveness game because I think that if you hit Tyree Killen stride in a secondary, which Reed Blankenship, who has not practiced this week, is not going to be there. Justin Evans is not going to be out in the field. This team is going to be starting Terrell Edmonds and are they going to do Josiah Scott at safety?

They can't do Mario Goodrich. I don't know the plan. No one knows who's playing safety for the team. I think it's going to be rookie Sydney Brown and probably. Brown healthy? Terrell Edmonds. Brown is sort of back this week. I mean, we don't know as we're recording this on a Friday,

but I think he's, that would be my guess, but that is not 100%, and that's not a reason to not take those props for Tyree Kill. Yeah. So let's get a rookie second round safety, Sidney Brown, in his first career start against Tyree Kill in space. Like, I think the Tyree Kill 50-yard catch-and-run is very tough.

to, like, I think it's more likely to happen than not, right? I'm so worried about this secondary getting this guy down. So I have inclined to go over like five plus receptions, 125 plus yards, but that is longer odds. And the 125 is tough to get to. Eight receptions in 100, okay, like, he's getting 100. We all know he's getting 100. His over under is 97 and a half. But eight receptions might be tricky. So I'm not sure which direction I want to go. All right. So even though you think I'm going to try to lead you down the wrong path here, uh, I think you're right. to lean towards 5-125 for the reasons. Well, for two reasons.

I think one, I think Sean decides going to take some risks in this game as the Eagles defensive coordinator. I don't think he's going to go into this game like, we're going to force some punts in three-and-outs. I think he's going to go into it probably being like, you know what, we're going to give up some explosive plays. Guess what? Everyone who plays this defense does that.

We need to create some turnovers, be aggressive, create some negative plays. That's our path to defensive success in this game. It's not to force punts. It's not to limit yardage. It's to take the ball away and create those negative plays. So I think that's working in your favor because there's obviously risk to how a defensive coordinator is going to play in that situation. And then the other thing is I think there's a scenario where the Eagles offense

sustains some long drives in this game. So when you're talking about what number of possessions do the dolphins have, I wouldn't want something that counts on Tyreek Hill having more catches. Like, I'm with you. I think he's going to get his numbers. I think it's going to make big plays, but if it's like just kind of a volume-based play, you know, if this game gets shrunk a little bit because the Eagles are running the football a lot and, you know, the dolphins have a couple turnovers. Maybe those opportunities aren't quite there.

So yes, I would lean as you said it. I felt pretty strongly and this, you can play this back next week. It's totally wrong. I felt pretty strongly about five for 125 over eight and 100. Okay, so official pick, which is plus 179 right now in Fandle, is Tyree killed. I have five plus perceptions, 125 plus yards. Like I said, with Rahim Mostert, right? I'm, I'm exposed to this Dolphins passing him about six different ways when we come into Sunday. Tarek Hill, like, I've got Tyreek Hill 10 plus catches, 150 plus yards and two touchdowns, dude. Like, I've got, I've got the whole Kate and caboodle in this one. It's going to be an enormous, enormous, enormous game for the Dolphins star receiver, barring a weird alignment of the planet. And so yeah, yeah, put it on the,

put it on the ledger, five, but a five and 125. All right. It's going to be a fun Sunday night for the long shots, baby, because mine's in this game as well. I'm going on the other side. I've got D'Andre Swift, 80 plus rushing yards at plus 162. I think the Eagles' clear edge in this game is up front. Their offensive line against the Dolphins' defensive line. Lane Johnson did practice on Thursday. So again, we'll see what happens on Sunday. We'll see how close to 100% he's in. The guy has played through all kinds of injuries in his career. But I do. think the Eagles are going to be able to run the football. Their second in rushing DVOA this year,

this Dolphins defense is 25th in DVOA against the run. I think if you are the Eagles, you do what I just said. You know, you want to shrink the number of possessions the dolphins have in this game. You know, it's easier to stop them if they only have eight than if they have 11 or 12.

So I think they're going to enter the game with that mindset. I think Swift is going to get touches. I don't know that people realize how good DeAndre Swift has been awesome this year. Like he has been I didn't have a strong opinion on him going into the year and now watching him on film every week for the ringers Philly special. Like I couldn't be more impressed with this guy.

He's a different runner than I thought he was going to be. He doesn't dance. He's not taking tackles for loss. He's not, oh, man, he didn't hit the whole. He's doing all those things he had a touchdown catch last week where he catches the ball behind him, breaks a tackle and gets into the end zone like he's been physical. He's been tough. There are 36 backs with at least 40 carries this season.

DeAndre Swift ranks first. in success rate. Like he has been a very, very efficient runner this season. So he's had some monster games earlier in the season, maybe not so much recently. Last week, the Eagles were pretty pass heavy. That's the one thing that gives me pause. Those injuries you mentioned at the top with the dolphins cornerbacks. Last week, Jets had injuries at cornerback and the Eagles were like, we're just throw, they came out. They threw the first eight plays of the game. They passed the football. Now, that was a different opponent in terms of the offensive side of the ball, so I don't think that's going to be the case here. So I've got Swift at 80 plus rushing yards. I thought about just making him my prop of the

week. I was, you know, I had it at like, I think it's 62 and a half. So you can do that if you just want a regular number. But I'm like, you know what? Let's go a little, little bigger here and take him at 80 plus rushing yard. Yeah. I'm on the Swift over at 62 and a half. It was on my short list for just giving out for the straight prop of the week. The only, I like the straight prop a little bit better than a long shot because I worry about game script, right? And the dolphin, like, I think it would take a lot to get the Eagles out of their running game against their will. We obviously saw last week that they'll leave the running game at their own will.

I think it would take a lot for gamescriptive force them out of the running game straight against their will. But if there's a team who can do it, as this team, it's this Dolphins team, right? Which is like all of a sudden, it's just, it's 21 to 3 before you can blink. Like, they have that potential. That's the only thing that makes me worry a little bit about the alternate over.

altogether, though, this is like a five-yard-up-game. And it should be a game where they're committed to it. Critically, Lane Johnson, who just has a high ankle sprain, is playing. Lane's a sicko, man. This guy's unbelievable. And the Eagles are remarkably more effective win-loss percentage and short-yardage. We're there with Lane Johnson. The running game, though, especially.

Like, Lane and Kelsey are featured, featured parts of this Russian game. They use them as weapons. If you have a hampered lane, I think it affects it slightly. but if this line is four or five starters and critically that starter that's playing is laying that fourth one, you expect this to be a five yards of pop game and a game where they can rely on the running game.

So I am big on swift rushing overs in this game. I do think the long shot is a worthy look. Only worries game script. All right, there you go. All right, let's take one more break. We'll come back. We will get to our non-intense predictions and then our locks of the week.

All right, we are back on extra. point taken, nonsense prediction. This isn't part of the contest. This is we just break it up and say something silly, fun, whatever, surprising that we think

is going to happen this week. What do you got, Sola? So my first, my nonsense prediction was going to be, like we have a surprise inactive

because of trade potential first one of the season. I love that. That's always so fun when the rumor just starts, wait, why is this guy inactive? He wasn't on the injury report

and then everyone's trying to figure it out. You just have all the Patriots beatwriters that are like, hey, we're watching warm-ups, and Mike and Wenu is just not with the starting offensive line. It's like, whoa! You obviously brought that up a little bit, Seahawks-wise. Our next year not Cs-Wise, Sequan-Barkley-wise, on the Giants part with him potentially getting traded.

So I'm trying to think of a second nonsense prediction. Like, Chiefs Chargers should be ripe for something. Packers Broncos is also a little bit of like another spicy coach one, right? I feel like Sean Payton's really due for like a true volcanic blowup at this point. He's kind of been underwhelming us. He's been a little too calm for as bad as their season has gone. Yeah, I agree with that. Yeah, I'm down for a Sean Payton.

We've got Bill Belichick surface tablet spikes. We haven't gotten like a Sean Payton headset spike. I don't know. That feels, that feels wrong. And Matt LaFlor is going to be another one of these Sean Payton enemies because he's in the whole Shanahan tree, protect Nate Hackett, QB collective sort of a thing. I forgot about that. Good one.

Yeah, I forgot about the LaFleckett. So I think we're in for some shenanigans there. By the way, we were wrong on the team, but we got what we wanted little pregame fight action last week. That's right. Chargers Cowboys. It wasn't Red Zone. They couldn't cut in because it was Monday night.

But dude, great clip. 40 seconds long. Whoever's taking the video is like right there in the scrum, Echler loses his helmet. All we ever dreamed of. Oh, wait. No, I was thinking Brown's 49ers. We got that.

We had two. Oh, I didn't even. I was watching the Phillies. on one day before the Cowboys Chargers. I didn't even see the Cowboys Chargers had one. Oh, dude, the Chargers Cowboys had like a nice little... Oh, I missed that. Great pushing scrum.

Dante Fowler, you know how like guys punch guys who are wearing helmets and were like, are you insane? Don't punch dudes. Dante Fowler took a swing at Austin Echler and knocked his helmet off. Dantle Fowler's the first guy in history to successfully punch a dude with helmet on.

Wow, and Austin Echler seems like the nicest man. Why are we punching Austin Euler? They had one of those great pre-game scrums where everybody's got their arms locked. They're holding the other guys and they're also kind of like shoving back and forth. Ah, high quality, high quality scrum. So we were wrong on the teams, but we are getting our deliveries in terms of our warm-up fights, which I do appreciate.

But I do think, I think my official nonsense prediction is we're going to tune in to, you know, the Vikings game or whatever. And someone's like, you know, Danielle Hunter is not playing. It's like, okay, here we go. I like that. The trade is coming. Yeah, yeah. I'm sticking, I'm going with that Broncos game. Jared Stidham gets in this game and for

performance reasons. It's coming to a team. Are you, are you on Packers spread for this one? It's not one of my picks. I did pick the Packers minus one and a half in my column. Yes. I don't know. I mean, you know, the Broncos get a much better performance from their defense last Thursday night against the Chiefs than they've gotten all season. And their offense just looks like a complete disaster, the worst of Russell Wilson in that game. So I don't know, something's got to happen. Like, I agree with what you were saying. Yeah, Peyton's been a little understated for as bad as this season has gone.

Something's got to be coming there. So I'm predicting it. Jarrett's did him. A little cutaway to that game. And he enters the game for Russell Wilson. All right. Let's get to the good stuff, the stuff you have all been waiting for. The locks of the week.

There's three games against the spread from each of us, Benjamin. me. What do you got? Yeah, I'm on Dolphins plus two and a half. I'm on Dolphins. Mine line personally, I'm on Dolphins plus two and a half. I do not think the Eagles have the necessary tools in the shed, the necessary utensils in the cover to handle this passing game. If the Eagles win this game, they will do so by outscoring the dolphins. Absolutely a potential. But I think that the better team is as the underdog here, even on the road. Eagles home crowd, obviously, one of the few remaining really strong home crowds and legitimate home field advantages. So I do understand why the line is what it is.

But I think that this dolphin's passing attack. Like I've said it on the Philly Special. I think I've said it here. This Eagles back seven is legitimately one of the weaker, weaker, if not weakest ones in the league. And I think that you're going to see that that team win with the pass rush on a couple of downs and get the dolphins at a second and 17 and get a stop on third and eight. And like, they're going to try to live on that.

but I there's not a down and distance in which I don't like the dolphin's ability to catch run and pick it up like I think we're in for another like 40 burger from Miami I'm scared of that I do like dolphins plus two and a half in this one we'll see like if the Eagles outscore them that's great you've said the Eagles offensive issues have been overstated I kind of agree but they exist like in order for the issues to be overstated they must be there I'm not sure like even with a good matchup against the Dolphins offense you're right like the short and game potential and the control of ball potential, that can still keep it close. But again, if it's like fourth quarter and it's the one score game, we've seen what the dolphins can do, especially when

they've tired your secondary out and they can really run on you. I think dolphins plus two and a half plus two and a half is the look this week. I'm not touching that game in the locks of the week. I did take, I went, got took the Eagles in my column. I was going back and forth all week. Certainly after last week's game, I was like the dumb man, the dolphins are going to kill them. I do think there's a formula here for the Eagles to sustain long drives to be really efficient. offensively where this is one of those, man, they ran for over 200 yards. They didn't turn the football over and they shrunk the game a little bit. And like I said, I think, yeah, I don't think they're going to stop that Dolphins offense.

I think they need to make a play here or there as dumb as that analysis sounds. I think this is, can you create a turnover or two? Can you steal something on special teams? And with pressure, you should be able to. You can, right? Yeah, they're better on the lines of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. That's something working in their favor. I am interested in the, you know, your back seven thing.

I don't think I totally agree with that, only because I think the Eagles corners, Darius, Slay is back in this game. Slay and Britt, now everybody else you can point to, and yeah, you're right, but Slay and Bradbury, I mean, that's a pretty good corner duo. Now, they're not a fast corner duo, so I have concerns about how they're going to cover those guys, but I am interested to see how they match up. I agree with you, and I definitely think I want to see more to really, like, get my back into this take, but I was looking at it when I was looking at Tyreek Hill props yesterday,

wide receiver ones against the Eagles this year. Justin Jefferson, 11 catches on 13 targets, 159 yards. Cooper Cup, eight catches on 12 targets, 118 yards, Garrett Wilson, eight catches on 12 targets, 90 yards. Mike Evans, five catches on 10 targets, 60 yards. Terry McLaurin, eight catches on 10 targets, 86 yards. So that's Mike Evans, everybody's having a good day. And like, that's really high.

It's tough. Garrett Wilson was definitely, you know, he's getting a backup corner there. Cooper Cup, they move him in the side. So there are a way. Now listen, the dolphins can do all these things. And that's what I'm saying. is the Eagles, you know, with Jonathan Gannon, who is a charged name in Philadelphia,

and you had the excellent season prediction of someone's going to say Gannon was a better DC for the Eagles, and they shouldn't have made fun of him and chased him out of Philadelphia. All for whatever you want to say about John Gannon, Gannon had more success getting his top corners against the other team's top receivers, and then finding solutions when he couldn't get that matchup, then Sean decides had through six weeks.

Now, like I said, I would have to do a little bit more work before I agree with that. Like I said, I want to see more. And look into that more, like really put my back into that. I'm perfectly fine being moved off that take. We get more data. You know, you watch the film and you say, okay, they're doing with these injuries. But it's not like the Eagles have been like, all right, Darius Slay handles X.

Let's move on to Y. That has not happened yet this season for them. And so I like, I like their corners. The corners aren't having the impact that you'd like to see if you have top guys against opposing teams wide receiver ones. Yeah, Slay comes back. We think this week from an injury. I thought Brad Barry had one of his best games last week.

But we'll say they are going to. No one's slowing down those guys. If I could have back. minus 110, Dolphins complete double move against James Bradbury. I would have put the house on it. Come on, he's been doing a nice job. I actually think they will be very aware of that and they'll at the end. They're going to try it. Everybody tries them on the double move. I am, do you want to, do you want to add an additional point to this week? No, I do not. No, okay. That's what I thought. We can't go down. That would be a slippery slope. We'd be in week 11 going, all right, we added X.

This week is worth 13 points. That's for one week. No. Any sort of double. move out and up sluggo curling go they're gonna get bradbury on something they get every they get this is a great deal for you okay i'm really trying to hit a window for one point and you get one point if i don't get it off you're passing up on a bargain i'm passing them all right i've got the buffalo bills minus eight and a half at the new england patriots bills have not looked good the last two games uh we've all seen that on the road against the jaguars at home against the giants that's i like them even more in this spot because you know what? This is what the bills do. They're going to have two bad games. Then they're going to have three awesome games. Then they're going to have one bad

game. Then they're going to have two good games. And then we're going to look up at the end of the season. And they're going to be in the playoffs and they're going to have a top five offense. And then we're going to see what they do in the postseason. Even this year, they're tied for second in EPA per drive with the 49ers. Now, stats aren't everything at our eyes. But think about that. Think about how we talk about the 49ers, how we talk about the bills. Statistically, those two teams are tied for second in the NFL in offensive EPA per drive. Their third in offensive DVOA. I like this matchup for them.

Last four times they faced the Patriots, four wins all by at least 12 points. This Patriots defense, given the injuries, is a worse version than those previous Patriots defenses. How about this one, Ben? I wish I knew this trend was this was coming because I would have gotten a lot more picks right in my picks column. Do you know that the Patriots, the last 11 times they've been underdogs with Mack Jones as their starting quarterback have failed to cover 0 and 11.

Now, listen, that's going to come to a head at some point. It's probably this week because I'm picking the bills here. But I don't think the bills have to play that well. I'm a little concerned, obviously. Josh Allen has the shoulder injury. He suffered last week. I think the bills need like their C game to win this. The Patriots offense is a complete disaster.

I don't think they're going to be moving the football well. Just don't turn the football over. You can even win this one ugly. It can be like, you know, 23 to 13 or something, and you don't have to feel that great about the bills afterwards, but they still cover. So I like the bills minus eight and a half at New England. Yeah, Evan Abrams here was at Action Network. Matt Jones, 3 and 14 against the spread in his career as an underdog. If you rank quarterbacks by how much you would have one loss on betting

on them as an underdog, he's third worst, 269th out of 271 quarterbacks as a dog against the spread last 20 years. You know the two worst quarterbacks are? No idea. Who do you got? one of them is just like whatever Ryan Fitzpatrick he played a lot of games okay fine the last one 22 and 71st Fus Stafford is hilarious no no no no no okay Jay Cutler of course Jay Cutler sees underdog like yeah I'm disengaged this is not the game for me call me when we're favorites so there you go all right what do you have for your next one uh pinch your nose take a deep breath hold it we're picking Raiders minus two and a half when I have the opportunity Why are you picking this?

You can pick any game. You're picking Raiders, bears? When I have an opportunity to fade undrafted free agent rookie quarterback in his first career start, I take it, chill. All right, listen, I had a one point week last week. We are opening the doors we need to open to get back on track here, all right? Making some changes around this operation. The Raiders don't have Jimmy Garoppolo. They're potentially playing Aiden O'Connell or Bryant.

Ryan Hoyer. They haven't committed to either one yet. I'd wager we see Hoyer, to be honest. Even if we see O'Connell, I'm fine with it either way. They have the ability to run the football and be successful against a Bears' defense that struggles to stop that. Defensively, are the Raiders Gary? No. But Patrick Graham has always been a DC that I've liked. He can throw pitches. He rotates coverage. He gives you some weird-looking stuff. And you get a guy in Badgett who, Tyson Badgant, by the way, is the undrafted free agent quarterback at Adis Shepherd, who won the Bears QB2 job this here in camp by looking interesting, which is fun and is nice. But we get this Bears team, which never coaches well to its offensive players, right? Never maximizes them. It's

erratic week over week, has running back injuries, right? There's no Khalil Herbert in this game. Is dealing with another offensive line shuffling the moving Cody Whitehart and Temin Jenkins around. Like, I just, this team is so poorly equipped to support a young quarterback. I think they're, I'd be surprised if they pick up 10 first downs. I think they're going to be a heavy turnover team. I just, this is such a clear fade spot with where the bears are at as an organization that even if I have to take Raiders for the backup quarterback, I'm taking Raiders with the backup quarterback. I was going to say, I love how confident you are, Brian Hoyer on the road in the year 2023. And I said, can Brian Hoyer five step and put the ball on Josh Jacobs belly? Yes, we're good.

This is one of those who are for my picks column. I write the column and then I go and then I look and I say, are my heavy on favorites and my heavy on dogs this week. And then if there were some that were 50-50 for me. I changed them. This was one of those. I initially had the Raiders. I was a little favorite heavy on the picks. And I go, you know what?

Josh McDaniels, Brian Hoyer on the road, his favorites. I'll just flew out. Let's see what you got. Tyson Badgin. All right. So that's the only reason to watch this game is to see if Ben Solek hits the lock or not. All right. I've got, I've announced to make.

I am breaking up with my Steelers, Mike Tomlin, underdog Trent. I can't believe you're on the Rams. This is the first match I've really liked for the Steelers. That worries me. I'm doing something I said I'd never do. I'm breaking up with them.

It's not you, Mike. It's me. Okay, we've had a nice run together. I usually can't resist taking you as an underdog. You are 53, 31 and 4 against the spread as a dog in your career covering 63% of the time. But this offense has broken me, Mike. It is just so, so painful to watch.

I don't like the feeling sitting in my chair, watching the Steelers, where I've picked the Steelers, and that offense comes out on the field. And I know I'm either going to see a back shoulder to one side, a back shoulder to the other side, a sack, a turnover, three, and they're going to show Canada in the booth. They're going to steal my stat about the 400 yards and not a tribute extra point taken, which one of you did.

People were tweeting at me. I saw you. You don't think I didn't notice that. It was a, who had it? Someone did. I was like, wait a minute. I know that's wrong. Appreciate all the expats who tweeted me during that.

I'm taking the Rams this week. I like them here. Wow. I like them minus two. I think the offense is legit. They're top five in every category. They pass the eye test when I watch them. They can make difficult throws Cooper Cup looks just fun.

Like prime Cooper Cup right now coming off that injury. They've got multiple receiving threats. They're scheming it up. I actually thought Ben and Bell. making this, I was going to go adjusted line and go minus six and a half. However, however, that went from plus 150 to 148. So it took it out of my hand. So listen, I don't feel good about it. I'm sure it's going to screw me. The one time I'm going against him here. I think I said on a previous pot, I will never go against Tomlin

or Rable as an underdog in my locks of the week. Well, that didn't last long. I couldn't resist. We've had a nice run, Mike. I'm sorry. I can't do it anymore. It's not good for emotional well-being. Hopefully we can still be friends. Rams minus three. Let's go. So this is really just like a, I've reached the end of my rope watching the Steelers offense. And I really like the, I like this Rams theme a lot. I absolutely like this Rams offense specifically quite a bit. So I think the Tomlin respect is like baked into the line here, like a field goal, you know, all right. That's what it is. This is like, you're shocked. I like it's it's very interesting because like when I go to look for, okay, like this Steelers offense sucks.

I'm not interested in it at all. But where can they match up? well, the first thing I look for is, okay, can George Pickens just dominate the opposing outside corner? And when it's a killer, who was cut from the Steelers, yeah, that's true, like out from the Steelers last year, and Darien Kendrick, I'm like, okay, check, I love that. The next thing I look for is, okay, like, is this team enough of a pressure team to just demolish Pickett because Pickett's really bad at the pocket? And Donald, check, other than that, like, have Michael Hoeked and Byron Young and Kobe Turner, have they exceeded expectations? sure. The Rams are still not like a high efficiency pressure team. And so like the

it's easy to break the Steelers offense, but the stuff that usually breaks the Steelers offense isn't here. Like I think the Steelers are, I don't want to say. I think the Steelers are going to be good on offense. Don't say the Steelers are good offense. What a what a surprising journey defense. I love this. I can't wait for this game. I can't wait for this game. I walked in I walked into in this pop being like Eagles Lions or Ravens Lions, Eagles Dolphins. What a weekend. And all of of the game I'm most interested in as Rams. Oh, my family is thrilled right now that you've got me on the suicide. The Rams, I'm now positive the Rams are winning this by 20.

I disagree. I think it's going to be the opposite. All right. What do you have for your last one? Man, this is the most important game of actual one day in the season. All right. I'm not going to take Rams and fade you like you did with me with the Falcons last week out of spite.

That was so nice. That was fun. I would just suggest doing it. It was a great experience for me, watching Desmond Ritter throw those in. interceptions. Falcons, by the way, just like a better success rate, better expected points per drive. I like the Falcons this week a little bit. I would never pick them for a lock, but I actually do like there. They're like, so the Falcons are plus two and a half on the road against the box. I'm very close to taking them. I will not take the bucks. If you worried about me taking the, I'm not taking

the other side on that one. So you, you won't bully me if I take Falcons plus two and a half then is what you're telling me. Bullying, no, I'll sit there and if it hits, I'll be happy because I got the pick right in my column. If it missed. is I'll be happy because I can continue to make fun of you about the falcons. So I would encourage you to do it. It's a win-win for me. I, okay, let me ask you this. Falcons plus two and a half.

Packers minus one and a half on the road against the Broncos. I looked at the Packers quite a bit. If we were making a fourth pick, I think that would have been my fourth pick. That's a team. See, that's a team I look at it and say, buy week, self-scout, Matt LaFleur. They're going to figure some stuff out how to help the young quarterback. Let's let me take the Packers. I, last week, I, I shoehorned the Falcons into the column and I got burned for it.

This time I'm shoehorning them out. They're going to cover. It's fine. I'm thinking Packers minus one and a half against the Broncos. Like I said, right, this Denver team is in total disarray. The Packers are coming out. They had a mini buy. They played on Thursday night football against the Raiders, then a Monday night football against the Lions.

And the floor was like, I thought we figured out some stuff on that mini buy. it appears that we didn't. We're going to have to go back and figure some stuff out. He's like, I'm going to look around the league. I'm going to steal some plays. He's going to steal Mike McDaniel plays. Sean McVey and Calhian are already doing it. Everybody is.

He's just catching up to the curve. That in and of itself is great. I think you can tell it's like LeFlo is really pissed off. He knows this offense should be better. He knows he's supposed to be a coach and he is capable of being a coach to really build around a young quarterback, and he has to improve that.

The other thing is the health. Christian Watson, who's been banged up, He's been playing Gimby expected to be full. Aaron Jones is the huge one. Just the absolute enormous one. If they're able to get Aaron Jones, who was a full participant in practice this week. I was looking at Aaron Jones overs for my props.

I was looking at that. You just expect Jones to stabilize. He's the only old, reliable player they've got in terms of skill positions on offense. You expect him to be able to stabilize this unit. And then post-rooky bumps, always something to keep an eye on. And when you're looking at a Packer's team,

that has a rookie receiver in Jaden Reed, a rookie tight end in Luke Musgrave, even throw in like the second year players, you just think, okay, after the bi-week, they're going to be able to settle in a little bit more with young quarterback. Jordan Love getting a post-rooky bump, even though it's his fourth year,

because it's just first year starting. He's gotten a breather. I think the Packers are going to walk out and have a lot smoother of an operation. Again, the Broncos, it's going to feel a lot more like we thought it would feel when we threw the cheese heads on and we picked them to be the extra point taking team of the week, or team of the year, excuse me.

So Packers minus one and a half is a line that I do like in Denver. And I agree with the general. Jared Stittam potential. I think that you can see this be a pretty gnarly game offensively for the Broncos as well. I'm looking at Luke's spreadsheet here. Again, he's got a lot of great categories. Ben usually tweets out the spreadsheet. This is open for everyone to look at during the week.

When you pick one of the picks that I have in my column now, 69.2% it hits. So it's actually high. It wasn't before higher than your actual average. Now it's a little bit higher than you're nine for 13 when those coincide. I did take the Packers in my column there. So I do. And you took the Falcons too, yeah? I did take the Falcons, yes.

But you didn't pick them. Yeah, you didn't pick them. They can't turn that back. If the Raiders don't cover against Badge, I'm going to be furious, dude. That's supposed to be a layup. You know what? I'm thinking I could qualify my last pick here because I think I should have picked the Packers. I'm going to qualify this as in the category of stupidest bet that anyone is made on this podcast.

Oh my gosh, he's so cheap. Listeners, do you hear this? No. No. No. Every week, just pressing the easy button. I think you're going to agree on this one, that it's, It's stupid. I'm going Chargers plus five and a half at the chief. No, that's a great pick.

It's a great thing. You like it? Okay. They're a super desperate team. Absolutely. I was so close to Herbert passing props for my prop of the week. Okay. So here you go. Everybody is obviously down on the Chargers after that performance on Monday night. But they've played the Chiefs tough. They're three and one against the spread against the Chiefs the last two years. They've only won one of those games, but the three losses have been by a combined 12 points. None of them have been by more than six points. So they have not gotten blown out by the Chiefs here in the last two seasons. Herbert did not play well on Monday night, no doubt about it. Zoom out. It's still been a top 10 offense by really every metric. And then to what Solex said, like most teams, I'm like back against the

wall. They got to win this game. And I feel good about it. I don't know if I feel good about that with this Chargers team like we talked about. They might be a little toothless. They might not have an identity. So it might not have an effect. But they've been pretty good with Justin Herbert. as underdog. So this is another one. I actually considered taking the Chargers money line as my long shot of the week. I was not,

then I'm like, no, she'll, don't do that. Just take DeAndre Swift 80 yards. That'll make for a much more pleasant Sunday. I do continue to have concerns about the Chief's lack of playmakers on offense.

I know they got me Cole Hardman back this week. The floor is going to be high. I'm not saying they stink. They're going to win double digit games. They're going to win the division. they're going to be playing in the AFC championship game. But when I just look at how this team compares to previous versions, a little bit easier to defend.

I think that's fair when you just look at who Patrick Mahomes is throwing the football too. So I've got Chargers plus five and a half. I'm putting it in the stupidest bet that anyone has made on the podcast so far this season. Every time I say that, so Alex says he loves the bet. So it's like kind of a combo thing here. And let's see if we can stay perfect on the stupid bets shield makes. Yeah. Chargers plus five and a half is just

Like I haven't taken the line yet Because I think you're gonna get enough public action on it That gets to six and I want it at six With that said The desperation factor The divisional factor You just typically see these divisional games played tight The rest difference is a little bit meaningful

I don't like that Yeah that hurts my feelings Yeah The Chiefs haven't played since last Thursday night The Thursday and the charges play Monday So that's also making me a little squirley about it But on paper you just expect A lot of passing close points

the charges are really going to challenge these chiefs receivers. For everything that the charges are defensively, they still make you play games that you don't necessarily want to play. They do find a ways to stress you. And like, you know, the Cowboys had 10 Michael Gallup targets on Monday night. They didn't want to have 10 Michael Gallup targets. Just kind of the charges can paint you into corners still schematically. So they're going to put the pressure on the chiefs to make that young receiver room work.

And then this chief's team, I like, the chiefs have won five games in a row. And all we do is Chiefs panic. It's so funny to me. The bar we have for them is extremely high. But this chief team just is not dominating games. So you look at a five and a half point line, your head tells you, oh, Mahomes, five and a half points. But you go and you look back, and they aren't running away with games like that anymore.

They're a lot more controlled on offense. They're a lot more balanced on offense. They play things late game situationally. Shout out to Andy Reid, who previously you'd be like, Andy, this is not for you. You're not built for these sorts of games. They're doing a good job managing the clock and managing those games. One score game feels very likely in this one. And so charges plus five and a half.

I do like Justin Herbert, like I said, I was looking at the passing line. Over 261.5 yards, he's had that in five of the six games that he's played in his career against the Kansas City Chiefs. The only reason that you worry about that is that since Mike Williams went down, they just haven't been as prolific in the passing game. They've been shorter. They've been more incremental. Austin Eccler's back. It would take a lot of targets to get there. I'm not sure we actually get home to that.

And so I didn't end up taking it, but I do like that look. Yeah. And this Chief's defense, give them. credit, they look better than the previous ones we've seen. We'll get a bigger sample and see how good they are, but they've certainly played well so far this season. All right, so let's give us the quick recap of your lock locks, your long shot, and you are proper leave. Yeah, lock dolphins plus two and a half, Packers minus one and a half. Raiders, minus two and a half and heck luck, falcons plus two and a half in there as well, even though I don't

get to count it. Rahim Moster is going to have over 12 and a half receiving yards. Tarek Hill is going to have over 1204.5. It's going to have at least 125 receiving yards. and five receptions for my long shot. And then that's all of them. I was about to do the nonsense prediction. I remember we don't keep track of that. We don't need that. All right, I've got bills minus eight and a half at New England.

Rams minus three against the sealer. Steeler, sorry, Mike. Chargers plus five and a half at the Chiefs. And then I have Matthew Stafford over 260.5 passing yards for my prop. And Dianne Swift, 80 plus rushing yards for my long shot. So there you go. Tide up 2020, Solac, get the, when's a good time to tweet out the spreadsheet? People, I feel like you got to wait until maybe like Sunday because I don't want people just looking at the spreadsheet and not having to listen to the pod, right? This is kind of a branding content type thing.

I feel like there's some time in the weekend. You know, Solac will tweet out the spreadsheet. You can check out all the picks there. But we're going to make you listen first of all. So tied at 20. We'll see who takes the edge going in the weekend. All right. Thank you to Benjamin Solac.

Thank you to Cliff Augustine for producing. Thank you to Eduardo Ocampo for his video production. Additional production supervision by Connor Neffens and Arjuna Ramgopal. Next up, Nora and Stephen, dual threat. Sunday night, they will recap all of the week seven action. Be sure to check that out. We will talk to you Monday night. Thanks to everyone for listening.

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