The Ringer NFL Show - NFL Week 8 Picks, Props, and Predictions! | Extra Point Taken

Episode Date: October 27, 2023

Sheil and Ben are getting you ready for Week 8 action with some bold predictions, prop picks, and locks of the week. Could the Bengals get a much-needed win with Sam Darnold likely starting for the 49ers? Plus, are the Titans headed for fire sale after trading Kevin Byard? The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please check out theringer.com/RG to find out more, or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Sheil Kapadia and Ben Solak Producer: Cliff Augustin Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Social: Eduardo Ocampo Musical Elements: Devon Renaldo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, everyone. This is Craig Horlebeck from the Ringer Fantasy Football Show. Join me, Danny Hifitz, and Danny Kelly, every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday to help you win your draft, win your league, and most importantly, avoid that last place punishment. Follow the Ringer Fantasy Football Show on Spotify. Welcome to Extra Point Take and Shield Capadia here, joined by Ben Solac. It's Week 8, Week 8 just kicked off with a Bills 2418 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneer. Solac and I are here to talk about. about what we're watching this weekend, make some picks, make some predictions. So, like, you were the first person I noticed who was like, why does no team have a buy this week? And I was, I'm on board. Do you find an answer? Why do we have 16 games in week eight when six teams were on by last week? Yeah. So I tweeted this out. I was just like, hey, what are we doing? And it turns out that the NBA starts this Sunday. And apparently, like, maybe the NFL wants to get, like, saucy with that or like, because they have the German.

many games, they have to have more buys in other weeks, or because they're trying to, like, there were 10,000 theories and all of them made no sense to me. All I know is that I am being punished personally because I have to write the Sunday column and there are 14 games this Sunday, and I'm not personally emotionally into that. I would say yes, it's all about us as always. And I also feel personally attacked because I had to write about 16 games in my picks column. And I don't like doing that in a week eight. I like doing a 13 in a week eight. So yeah, it's all about us, of course. We live very hard lives. I will say the most challenging thing is just been remembering who's playing who. Too many teams, too many teams, and when you're looking ahead at lines and

when you're watching back old film, I'm like, all right, the Browns are playing the Seahawks. I think, yep, Seahawks. Okay, we're good. It's too many games to remember. We will see which games have our attention because we're not talking about all 16. I'll tell you that right now. We are not doing that. All right. You know the drill. If you're new to the show. The Friday show, here's what we do. We talk about headliners, what we're keeping an eye on this week. We're talking about what predictions we have for the big storylines on Monday morning. And then we get to the PICS portion of the show, which we were an utter and complete embarrassment. Last week, we'll get to that. We'll get to the score later. Yeah, I don't want to talk about that now.

All right, let's talk about, I'm curious, Ben, because there's not like one, I think, me, like last week we had, all right, Ravens Lions, Dolphins, Eagles. It was pretty easy. Here's what we're watching. The big thing this week. This week it's a little bit harder. So what do you have your eye on? What's your headliner for week eight? The number one thing I'm most interested to see is this 49ers offense against the Cincinnati Bengals without Brock Purdy potentially. Like this is just a learn something game. The Bengals are quite a good defense. I would expect on a day in which the Niners had Brock Purdy and they had Debo Samuel both available. This would be an interesting matchup. I'd be curious to see what

this out of the ball looked like. But in that world, the line for this game would be like Niners favored by a touchdown. Niners favored by more than a touchdown. Well, lo and behold, no Debo Samuel. And then Brock Purdy is in concussion protocol after suffering a hit on a quarterback sneaked against the Vikings. He showed symptoms on the plane right back. Got placed in the protocol this week. I would wager he's quite unlikely to play given when he got placed on the protocol. Remember, Niners Vikings was a Monday night game. So he's like a day later in the protocol anyway. And then also it wasn't even noticed in game. It was noticed afterward. And so I'd wager he does play, which means we're going to see Sam Donald in this offense. And everybody and your mama wants

to see Sam Donald on this offense. Like, I don't know. I feel like you can't even call that a hipster thing. I feel like everybody. No, no, this is my head. This is my headliner too. Full disclosure. It's pretty much the same thing. So you all talk about it. Everybody has a soft spot in their heart for Sammy. Like I didn't even like him that much as a prospect. And still like you just like the guy. You feel bad for him. He suffered on some jet steams. And now here he is coming off of an unbelievable run with the Panthers. He was second EPA. dropped back in the league when he was the start. Unbelievable is a little far.

Let's settle down with unbelievable. No, no, no, no, no. Not unbelievable in terms of quality. Unbelievable in terms of what happened. Right? Like, he stepped into like a terrible Panthers team and they like beat the Lions by three scores. Like it was just such a weird.

Yeah, unbelievable in terms of like, I can't believe what I'm watching. He now gets the Kyle Shannon offense and he and no Devo Sandal, but you have McCaffrey and you have Ayyuk. And I think that the Brock Purdy like runs. has been such a magical run and there's been such intense debate, obviously here at the ringer, but also everywhere, as to like how much is this offense propping up Purdy?

How much is Purdy propping up this offense? We've really not seen much of this offense having Christian McCaffrey and not having Brock Purdy. This gives us an opportunity to see some of that as well. So this is going to be a very just like good litmus test for like, where are we out on the Shanahan offense, Bengals defense as well, and then also like Sam Donald.

Like what if Sam actually is good? What if this is good? What if Sam plays well? And just how fun will that be? I have more on that later in the show. All together, that's the thing I'm most excited to see this Sunday. I, too, have Bengals 49ers on many levels here. But yet the big one is that we get a natural experiment.

Let's be clear. We don't want Brock Purdy to be injured. I hope Brock Purdy gets healthy. Concussions are scary. It's a brain injury. No doubt about it. I hope they don't rush him back and they're doing the right thing. Given that he is unlikely to play, we get a natural experiment to one of the biggest questions

of the NFL season. which is how good is Brock Purdy? How much is Brock Purdy doing for the offense? How much is it Kyle Shanahan and DBA and Christian McCaffrey and everybody else in the scheme and everything just propping Brock Purdy up? And he's not, listen, it's only going to be one game, but we're going to get a data point here, most likely. If Sam Darnel plays, what is this going to look like? I think people forget, like, absolutely, Kyle Shanahan is an offensive wizard. There's no doubt about it.

Top of the league. You know, if you made a list of five, he's on everyone's list of five. offensive minds in the NFL. Having said that, he has been their coach for six years. In three of those years, the 49ers have fielded below average offenses by DVOA. Guess why? Because the quarterback wasn't very good. So even though, you know, the Nick Mullins of the world are putting up good counting stats and we can look at their pro football reference page, when you look at those offenses in three of the six years, they weren't good because they had quarterback injuries. They had quarterback issues. And there's a limit, generally speaking, to what Kyle Shanahan can do. Now, Christian

McCaffrey wasn't on. other teams. So now we see this version. I mean, right now, Ben, Brock Purdy is first in success rate and first in EPA per pass play in the NFL. I don't think even the biggest Brock Purdy lover does not think Brock Purdy is the best quarterback in the NFL. So now we get to see what does it look like with another guy. And you nailed it. The other guy is such an interesting guy because the darn old truthers are out there. They are waiting. They're going to be by their keyboards and by their phones. You are not. You are not. You are not and I am not. I'm interested to see it.

I have not like one who's got like my 2018 tweets dialed up in bookmarked, ready to retweet. That wasn't me. Yes. Yes, but there are people out there who will generally think, no, no, no, no, Darnold is going to ball out in this offense, in this game. Yes, this is what we've been waiting for. He had that terrible Jets experience. He was with the Panthers, but now he finally gets a great coach. He gets a great supporting cast and his talent is going to shine through.

And by the way, Ben, he's going against your boy, Captain Lou. I mean, this isn't like a cakewalk. Okay, okay, okay, call him by his given name. What do you, uh, what do you, you don't call him Captain? I thought you call him Captain Lou, no? I'm so, this is very upsetting. Wait, Lou, uh, sweet Louie, Louis, Louis, Louie, Loua, Loua, uh, Big Lou, no. I hope there are, I hope there are hundreds upon thousands of our NFL show listeners

in their car right now, screaming the correct Lou and rumor. It's not on Oval. He's Big Lou. I said Big Lou. Didn't I say Big Lou? You said Captain Lou. What are you talking about? Listen, I'm an old man.

It's late. It's been a long week. I don't know what the words are going to come out of my mouth. I immediately. They understand what I just had to go through. Okay. I apologize. Bigelow.

He's going up against your boy Bigloo. So yeah, I'm excited about that. Again, maybe Brock Purdy will play. If he plays, it's still interesting. But man, if Sam Darnold is getting a shot, in this offense, my eyes are going to be glued to that at whatever it is, 425 Eastern time on Sunday. Yeah, this is a, this could have been like a punchier game.

I think when the schedule makers made it, you know, preseason and healthy burrow and the offense is working the way you expected to and healthy purdy and, you know, whatever, huge one. But this is still just an objectively fascinating game. We're going to learn a lot about the Niners. And if we, if we get a bad Niners game, I think I'm going to continue to be banging this drum, But the fact that the Bengals are even afloat right now is such a huge testament to Luanarumo. And if they're able to sneak this game against this offense,

I don't even care if it's QB2 and there's no depot. That'll be the first thing out of my mouth when we talk on Tuesday, man. When we talk on the on extra point taken, this is a big, big spot for the Bengals, the key piece of the Bengals that's gotten them this far in Luanarumo. Yeah, that's the other thing. It's not just the 49ers quarterback. Like, this is a big game for both teams. I mean, the 49ers have lost two in a row.

They lose this game and the Seahawks win. Seahawks are in first place in the NFL. C. West after for five weeks, the 49ers took like an absolute juggernaut. And never doubt it. Not even once. Wait, wait, wait. Not even once. An extra point take and say that there was a chance that that wasn't going to happen. No, yeah. Cliff, please go delete my takes after week one. The Seahawks panic takes, those never

happen. So it's big for them. And then you mentioned it for the Bengals. They're three and three. The fact that they're three and three, they've got to be thrilled with, given that they haven't really played like a three and three team. They got outplayed by the Seahawks. and they won that game. They beat the Rams on Monday night because of those offensive line injuries and they win that game. Joe Burrow hadn't looked healthy.

Well, you get like a second life here now if you're the Bengals. You come off the by, you're at 500, and you would think you're going to get the healthiest version of Joe Burrow right now. So this is a big game for the Bengals as well. So yeah, that hopefully is going to be a fun one. Whether Purdy plays, whether Darnold plays.

I think that game is going to be the highlight for me on Sunday. All right. Next category. Monday morning storyline. What do you got, Ben? What are we talking about Monday morning when we look at the leaf? Okay. The following thing will be said on Monday morning. This is not a thing that Ben will be writing and saying, but this is a headline that will exist on Monday. Yeah? Is it a tie rod tale? Is it, it has to do with the giants? No, I already, I already tweeted out that tie rod should be a starter. I'm already there. Okay. All right. Yeah. No, uh,

Were we too quick to criticize Matt Canada? Will be the question. And that's because the Pittsburgh Steelers are four and two, and they had the Jacksonville Jaguars at home as a small underdog. And if you've been listening to this show, you know that Mike Tomlin is a small underdog. You know what Mike Tomlin often does win the football game? And this Jaguars team coming off of a nice, solid win against the Saints,

oh, that wind felt so great, except for the part where the Saints got all the way back in it in the second half there, didn't they? This Jaguars team, you and I've talked about it, really good on paper. Every time I watch them, I feel like it should be better. Is every team like that? I mean, that's hard to interrupt you.

But yeah, like the Jag Horse, like we just watched this, but we just watch this Bill's team. And it's like, for three quarters, I'm like, all right, bills are back, baby, up and down the field. And then I'm like, wait a minute, if Chris Godwin turns around for a helmet, I don't know. It just feels like most teams just have a hard time putting their opponents away. But yeah, it's probably not every team, but I don't know. That's just in my head.

All right. Now, I was. I did I did do a pod with an NFL friend Theo Ash today called Wednesday Night Football, which is a fun pod. And we asked the question of like how many teams are happy with their offensive play caller right now? And we got to like eight. In terms of fan bases, like there's a lot of people who feel like it's worse than it should

be for sure. All together though, this I think that like there are other teams like the Eagles where I'm like oh, it could be better. But also like the stuff that's working is supposed to work. With the Jaguars, it feels like it's drawing blood from a stone half of the time. You know, like they feel pretty disjointed to me. for a five and two team, right? You're grading on a scale.

Regardless, even if, like, like, Jaguar Steelers, I think it's close to a pickum for me in Pittsburgh. You know, it's a two and a half point line, whatever. In the world of which the Steelers win, I wouldn't be surprised if we get another,

quote unquote, better offensive performance, because the Steelers' offense wasn't even great against the Rams. It just finished down the stretch nicely. And I think you're going to continue to see that when they're on past scripts, they're a pretty good team because Giante Johnson is back. Like,

very simply, like, Johnson's a hard receiver to, talk about because he's like clearly not top 10 not top 15 right he's clearly not like a star and then he doesn't have a ton of like touchdown and scoring productions so the fantasy community doesn't love him but johnson's like objectively a wide receiver one like this is like a good solid receiver when he's not dropping the football and then george pickens the the having those two guys they're excellent compliments of one another and they make offense a lot easier i think we're going to see another solid picket game i think we're seeing another solid passing offense game and if the

sewers win that and they end up five and two i think you're to start to see some matt canada apologies coming. Apologism. Matt Canada, retconning of how bad he is happening. Because just simply the weapons are back and the team's record is high and so they're not going to be wanting to stir the pot anymore. I would not endorse those takes, but I wouldn't be surprised if we start to see them. Now, Deontay Johnson, keep an eye on him because he popped up on the injury report Thursday with a hamstring injury. Of course he did. Did not practice on Thursday. So we'll see. I mean, it sounds like that could be one that, I mean, we'll see what happens on Friday, maybe by sometimes some of you listen to this. But it does go to your point because, you know, to your credit, you were banging

this drum last week that just having Deonté Johnson back makes this offense look completely different. And when I was crying about my Rams pick in the fourth quarter of that game last week, I was like, Deontay Johnson is making this offense look different, you know, when you just have another option there for the Steelers. So yeah, that Steelers game last week is so hard to kind of wrap my head around. They had six first downs in the first three quarters. Like they looked like the exact same team. And then the fourth quarter, I don't know what, 11 first downs in the fourth quarter. Third most by any team this entire season.

It was just like they couldn't be stopped all of a sudden. So that's a good one. Now, I don't know. Get out of the run script, right? The Jags are like a top 10 run defense, like an average pass defense, right? You have to show up to this game throwing the football. I don't know how many people are going to be apologizing to Matt. Who?

I can't think of anybody in my life that would apologize to Matt Canada. I feel like there's going to be like some Steelers beat right. I'm not like thinking of someone in my head, but someone's going to be like, pull out the like contrarian like, hey, Matt Canada's office been pretty good over the last two weeks take. And it's just going to be like, okay, well, no. But way to make the numbers work that way.

I could see that. Okay. It's a tough one because the Steelers fans seem to hate Matt Canada as much as, I mean, they're yelling fire Canada. They're chanting that during game. So it's not one of those where like the fan base sticks up for somebody that everybody else is criticizing. It's like, no, no, no, the fan base is on board, maybe driving the train and everybody else

is on board. So we'll see there. That's a good one, though. That's, I think that's a game I will get to at some point later here. All right, my Monday morning storyline, Titans fire sale. Now, normally when we say team and fire sale, it's, I get bored like you see these headlines and I'm like, fire sale, this team's got nobody. What are you talking about? What's the fire sale going to be? With the Titans, I think it's different. So Ryan Tanahill has not practice for the Titans. You're looking at some combination, it sounds like, or at least they say, maybe it'll just be one of these guys, but they're saying right now some combination of Willevis and Malik Willis against the Falcons. A loss to the Falcons would put the Titans at two and five.

We just saw them last week already trade veteran safety, Kevin Byer. Like they're already kind of, there are morsels here that they're ready to get into this mode. And so why do I say it's different for the Titans fire sale? Because they have some really, interesting players that could get moved and probably should get moved if you're looking ahead past this season. Derek Henry, final year of his deal turns 30 next season. If you don't think you're making the playoffs this year, there is no reason to hang on to Derek Henry. You trade him, you see what you can get for him. DeAndre Hopkins, no guaranteed money on his contract beyond 2023. That's a guy who if you are a contending team looking for a veteran outside receiver,

a ball winner who can help you down the stretch. Well, D'Andre Hopkins kind of fits that description. So he's another guy who could potentially get moved. I was even looking at the defense, man, someone like DeNico Autry, you know, perennially underrated defensive lineman. He's 33 years old. He's a free agent after this season. Like, if you're a team that needs a little pass rush boost, that's a nice versatile

piece to add there. So I think the Titans are a team that if they lose this game and they go to two and five, And it does, the future does not look, you know, it looks like it's going to be a rough season with Willis and Malik Willis taking a lot of these snaps. They're a team that I really think would make sense to move these guys quickly as soon as next week begin. So that's kind of one thing I've got my eye on kind of as soon as these games end Sunday and we're looking ahead to Monday morning and that trade deadline that's around the corner on Tuesday. I think the Titans are like the top of the list of teams I'm watching. Yeah. Happy Halloween to us, man.

We record the pod Monday night. like trade deadline stuff will be happening but they will also have more trade deadline to anticipate I love the trade deadline I If I had a genie me too What's better than that? Gene and I had one NFL wish it would be soup up the trade deadline man Make it like the NBA let's move some suckers

I agree with you on the the key offensive players I think Autry is a really important one to circle We're like Autry's 33 This team just recently extended Harold Landry They signed Arden Key Both that happened in the past off season And so those deals aren't really movable Now those guys are stand-up outside rushers.

Autry still plays a little bit more of an inside role. But fundamentally, like the rooms is a little bit crowded. And Autry's that sort of guy who, yeah, just like get him in the building, rental and go. You know what I'm saying? He makes a lot of sense in a lot of different spots. I think Buffalo is a team that makes sense for him. I think the Jacksonville is a team that makes sense for it. I actually thought in this Bucks Bills game, and I don't know what the numbers were.

Just watching it, I'm like, Baker Mayfield has a lot of time back here on a lot of these snaps. I was thinking like, yish. I thought this pass rush would show up in a bigger way. I like that one. Danico Autry as maybe an option for Buffalo. And so I think Autry is one where, like, people are going to expect a lot of like the big names. Like, oh, Tannahill, Henry. I wouldn't be surprised if Autry is the most likely to get moved.

Between the three, Ryan Tannanhill, Derek Henry, Deontra Hopkins, the offensive trio there. If you had to guess which one gets moved, which one would you guess? Which one? I mean, I think Derek Henry's getting moved. I also think it's Henry. They have Kai J. Spears. He's been playing nicely. They drafted in Hassan Haskins the year previous.

Like, they're very clearly. in future running back mode in terms of their draft selections. And Henry just, yeah, like you sign him to the whale of a deal and he had an unbelievable run with you, but he's so clearly past his prime and you're just not in a time

where you can be dealing with players who are past their prime. So I feel like, yeah, I feel like we might see our last snaps of Derek Henry in a Titans uniform on Sunday. So make sure you turn it on and watch. Enjoy it while you can. And honestly, it'd be fun to see Henry on a playoff team.

I still love watching that guy play football. So, yeah, get him on a contending team and let's watch him in December in some meaningful games. Yeah, I would go Henry Hopkins. And I mean, Tannale's injured. So, I mean, that one would really surprise me unless he's healthier than we know right now. But I would say Henry and Hopkins are the two to circle there. All right, let's take a break. We will come back in a moment on extra point taken. Score early this NFL season with Fandle, America's number one sportsbook. Right now, new customers get $150 in bonus bets when your first $5 money line bet wins. My favorite

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Bonus issued as non-strobable bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt. See terms at sportsbook.fanulah.com. All right. We are back on extra point taken. All right, Solac, we got to take our medicine here, man. We can't hide it. We can't be those football analysts. So when they have terrible weeks or make mistakes or get stuff wrong, they just sweep it under the rug or make excuses.

We had it all time, legendary, horrible. If we are a partnership, we can't even be worse than we were last week. We go over on all of our bets. Oh my God, it hurts me to even say it. We were tied 2020 going into the week. And guess what? We're tied 2020 after the week. What happened?

All right. Let's run through what happened here in week seven for the fellas. We'll start with me, Sheal. I was going to say like, you know, I'll take my lumps early, but it's all zeros. Who cares? Rahim Moster over 12 and a half receiving yards L, he was the target on the Dariusleigh Interception that was like 10 yards underthrown.

Oh, that's true. You had a chance there late. Wow, I forgot about that. Long shot of the week was five receptions at 125 receiving yards for Tyreek Hill. Listeners will remember that I didn't know if I wanted to do that one or if I wanted to do like eight catches, like 90 yards.

I think that one would have missed as well, but that one was a lot closer. Tyree Kill, by the way, two drops on the day ended with 88 yards. Case, I'm curious. And then my three locks of the week, dolphins plus two and a half against the Eagles, no chance.

Raiders minus two and a half against the Bears. Did you watch this game? Have you watched it back film-wise? No, I did not. No. It's the most laughable defensive performance I've ever seen. Not seen this season.

I am a stunt. Like, the gall on the Raiders to be looking ahead? Like, are you, you're not good enough to be like a look-ahead team and get got. Tyson, Bajian averaged 2.5 air yards in a attempt. Sheal. They scored 30 points. It's crazy.

It was a travesty, a miscarriage of justice. And then Packers on the road, minus one and a half against the Broncos. Packers had a chance at a game-winning drive in which they would have won the game by one, which would have just added insult to injury, but they didn't even get it. Also worth noting, I said on the pod, I wanted to take the Falcons that I didn't. They covered. And I said I wasn't going to take the Steelers over the Rams to be nice to you. And obviously the Steelers covered.

That brings us back to you. Rams minus three against the Steelers. tried to warn you, ugly one. Bills minus eight and a half against the Patriots. Outright lost to Matt Jones. And then Chargers plus five and a half against the Chiefs. Chargers were, I had charges plus seven and a half. I had them in a couple of alternate lines.

That was a bad game there. 80 rushing yards for D'Andre Swift. He got over his standard line on the last play of the game. And Chia went for the alt line. And then Matthew Stafford, the real crusher of the week on either side. Matthew Stafford over 260.5 passing yards. He had 230 in the third quarter. That one hurt my feelings. That was looking so good. Oh my God. Unbelievable. But the night is darkest before the dawn, Sheal. All right. We have had three perfect, we've had, we haven't had a

perfect week. We've had three weeks of five points. And then we've had two weeks now total of zero points. It just happened to be that we did our zero point weeks on the same week. On the year for the first time, we are below our goal of 50, or not for the first time, earlier in the week we weren't there yet. But for the last three weeks, we've been over our goal of 57%. We are now below it as a team at 51. That's just for the locks. Yeah, the picks against the spread. We want to be up there. I'm bringing us down. We're struggling there. It's a long season, baby. We're not even halfway. All right. I'm trying to pet myself up. I'm, I'm very mentally fragile, Ben, as you know. So I'm not going into this week, like confident, like,

I'm going to bounce back. I'm like, oh, God, what if I get zero again? This is going to be so embarrassing. But we'll do our best. And listen, here's what I want to happen. I want us to either be good or bad. No in the middle. If we are stringing together zero weeks, just fade us and make your money and have fun and we will be the punching bags. We're okay doing that. All right, let's start it off. So we do a prop of the week to start it off. Then that's worth one point. We do a long shot of the week that has to be plus 150 or higher, that's worth three points. And then our three locks of the week, those are picks against the spread. Those are each worth one point. So you get a total of seven points possible each week. Start us off. Benny, what do you got for your prop of the week?

Probably, I'm taking Logan Thomas to have over 31 and a half receiving yards. This is commanders against the Eagles. Logan Thomas has long been like a pretty solid, what you're smiling it before. What you responded to me before? I'm laughing because I feel like you are always picking like under the radar and I'm always like Bejohn Robinson and Matthew Steffert and you're Logan Thomas. I'm just laughing because I go through all of these and I'm looking which ones do I like and like I probably wouldn't have even thought to even consider Logan Thomas. But it doesn't mean it's wrong. Let's hear it. Well, so one of the reasons why is because when you go and at seven weeks into the season we start to have enough good date on this sort of stuff, when you go to look and see which defenses right now are really

bad against the tight end position. Eagles are dead last and success rate surrendered against the past when the tight end uh, gets a target. Logan Thomas has of course already played the Eagles, uh, this year. He ended that game three for three, 41 yards. That's over this number. He most recently was against Washington six for four, 51 yards. Typically when we see Thomas in a positive game, or in a negative game scripts, right, they are behind. They need to, uh, to score points. He's going over this number. Had a 43 in a close game with the Cardinals, had 77 and a loss to the bears. Uh, this is a bad tight end defending defense and a team that is expected to be down Washington, a seven point dog in this one coming up. So I like Logan Thomas to go over 30 one and a half in this game.

The potential like, oh, they're going to target the slot a bunch. I don't think you're going to see that. Eagles do a nice job. Did a nice job last year against the dolphins kind of hiding their slot players. You can't really hide the middle of the field, though, where you have the linebackers, you have the safeties. Kevin Byard, the new acquisition, going to be a deep middle safety, not going to really take away Logan Thomas range. I think we can get over this number. All right. There you go. Logan Thomas, I like it. Keep an eye on that one. All right, mine is much more basic here. I've got Russell Wilson under 218.5 passing yards. Chiefs defense believer, shield Copadia.

Broncos play the Chiefs. They just played them two weeks ago, which in addition to your thing about how stupid it is that there's no bias this week, that's also stupid. Why are they playing two times in three weeks, a division opponent? I don't mind it because it gives us betting opportunities like Eagles Commanders, like this. I have another divisional rematch coming up down the stretch. All right, there you come. So they played two weeks ago.

Russell Wilson went 13 for 22, for 95 yards in that game. Last three weeks, Russell Wilson, 194, 95, and 196. He hasn't passed for over 200 yards since week four. And I am kind of a believer in this Chiefs defense. I think this is the best defense they've had

since Patrick Mahomes has been the quarterback. All the nerds staffs back it up. They're averaging 13.7 points per game allowed. They're allowing 189 passing yards per game. Now, having said that, they lose Nick Bolton, had the wrist injury. I think he's out six weeks or something like that. Obviously, a big part of that Chief's defense had been playing really well. But I still like this one quite a bit. I mean, what have I seen to believe that this Broncos offense is going to pass the football effectively? And what have I seen to believe that this Chief's defense with good players in the secondary

is going to allow big chunk plays to Denver. So 218.5 Russell Wilson passing yards. I'll take the under. Shout out to Luke, who tracks all this in the spreadsheet that we tweet out every week. He has this one section in here. Ben or Shield bet the under, a grouch bet.

So, Lack, we're four for five when we do the grouch bet. Those under, let's not be afraid to take those unders. So we got to get this spreadsheet looking better than it looks right now. So there you go. I'm taking an under this week. Taking an under. So here's the thing. Like you,

I bet on games. You don't really bet on games. And so like when you have the under, when you, when you have like the under, what's your experience of watching the game? Because one of the reasons why betters, especially like square betters, public betters, go, for over instead of unders. It's because watching unders is high key stressful. Like over is hopeful.

Like every time you see the player, you're like, woohoo! Unders every time you see the player, you're like, no, no, no, no. Get them off the screen. there. And so that's why people tend to skew unders. I feel like you, though, hating happiness as you do, you'd be a good under better. Yeah, I mean, I basically just sit here and

am looking at which of my picks in this contest and my picks against the spread on the ringer. I am just rooting for those all day Sunday. I'm team content. I'm just rooting for correctness. I stress. I have no money on it and I'm still like, please don't get embarrassed. Please don't get embarrassed. So yeah, if it's a player who I don't think

like, I would agree with that if I'm like, hey, Patrick Mahomes, The under, just because I think it's an opportunity, that to me would suck because you're like, I don't want to root against Patrick Mooms to complete passes, but it's Russell Wilson and that Broncos offense. Like, yeah, I'm not going to feel bad about, hey, you know, throw some incompletions here. So I feel fine about it. There you go. All right.

There you go. Russell Wilson and Logan, Tom. I don't know. How do we feel about this? How do we feel about our start here? Do we feel like we're going to bounce back, Russell Wilson, Logan Thomas? I like Logan Thomas. I'm worried about Russ.

I'm worried about the Russ line. I think that game is a ton of points. I wouldn't be surprised if you see the Broncos actually keep pace for a little bit with the Chiefs. And with Russ, like, if they're going to score, it's always going to be big explosive passes, right? It's going to be the moon shot.

Deep ball, that could hurt me. Yeah, I'm worried about it. All right. Long shot. Who cares? Yeah, who cares? You should be rooting against it. Long shot of the week. This is plus 150 or higher.

This is the one you got to hit. Like, this is the one. If I get every other one wrong, just hit the shield. you still get three points. What do you got? Okay, I have been recently, I've been one week early on stuff. Like I took the Falcons and they didn't cover and then I passed them the next week and they did. I took the Patriots to cover. They didn't pass them. I passed them the next week and they beat the bills out right. I've been one week early on stuff. So I'm committed to kind of stay in the course

here, not moving too early off of things. Accordingly, my long shot of the week is for the Chargers to beat the Bears minus 13 and a half is plus 150. This is to beat them by two touchdowns. The line straight is minus eight and a half. I'm not going to take it. it for a lock of the weeks. I feel like, you know, don't, don't want to be redundant. But I'm getting, I'm getting a Tyson Bayesian. I understand they scored a lot of points. I understand, you know, a couple of like, people, little tweets like, oh, Beijing played great. I watched the film. I don't really think that Bears offense did anything. I think that they got unbelievably nice game script. They were given first down runs that were picking up six yards.

You're not going to get that from the Chargers structurally. Obviously, the Chargers run defense isn't great, but the chargers aren't going to sit back and, and lose to a undrafted for agent quarterback the way the Raiders just decided to. I think that game was a extreme aberration. So bright lights on the road for Bayesian. I know the road is Los Angeles. I know that doesn't count as a road stadium. Like all the stuff that I'm saying sounds like it doesn't apply because it's the Chargers, but I just don't, I cannot fear this offense. And meanwhile, Matt Iberflus, winner of now a few games, right? Oh, Matt Iberluss is picking it up. When you go and you look at the quarterbacks that he's beaten now as the head coach of the bears, it is not a good group,

right? It's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, a backup last year that they beat, like, this is Justin Herbert. This is a different cat. Chargers are two and four, obviously. Things are reeling. Feel nice and good about yourself, but being up on the bears on multiple scores, I'm taking charges minus 13 and a half. Okay, so you had to get to 13 and a half to get to plus 150 when you look at the adjusted line. And it's, uh, it's exactly plus 150 on the line. Okay. There you go. See, that's so lack smart. He's not going and he's not dumb like me with a plus 168 bet. The first thing I wanted to do for this, like the first thing I started poking around on

was Rishi Rice alt lines. And I was looking at like plus 210. And I was like, all right, chill out. Like you just had a zero for a week. You got to go back to basics. I do like the charges to cover in that game. I may or may not be considering them for one of my locks. But yes, it does feel like the right spot for them where they're two and four.

Like they've been playing terribly. Now it's bad opponent comes in. You had the more talented team. you have the better quarterback, go ahead and take care of business. Man, if they don't take care of business in that game, ooh, baby, that is a new rock bottom for the charger. So I think that's a good one. I like that one. I've got, and listen, this is really just a feel type thing. I don't think you're going to like this one. I've got Bryce Young over 1.5 passing touchdowns. It's plus 168. You've been riding Panthers Garbage Time passing that's all the way home, baby.

Oh, oh, I looked at him feeling. I couldn't. If you're going over at him feeling this week, it's like minus 170 or something. I couldn't even fit it in this thing. Panthers are coming off thereby. I think they obviously needed a reset. They are 0 and 6. They are the only winless team in the NFL.

Frank Reich hands over play calling duties to offensive coordinator. Thomas Brown, I'm not telling you that this is going to lead to like an offensive explosion. We'll see what happens. You know, it's a change. We'll see if it gives them any type of spark. I do think Bryce Young was starting to get a little bit more comfortable in his last couple

games there before the buy. I'm not saying he was great or perfect or anything like that. I think I did see morsels of improvement. And I just feel like historically, listen, quarterback rookie performance is pretty noisy. Like there have been a lot of guys who ended up being really good quarterbacks who are really bad as rookies. And it's a small sample we're dealing with so far in Bryce Young. So I think you look at this Texan defense. I think they're media. yoker. I don't think it's a great defense. I think even if the Texans are in full control of this game, and I think they're what, three, three and a half point favorites in this game, you still have a chance for a touchdown late. They're not going to take Bryce Young out of the game. We've seen that

in previous weeks. He needs the reps. They're going to stick with him. Now, on the downside, Ben, the Texans have given up just four passing touchdowns all season. I don't love that. But listen, that's why it's a long shot. So Bryce Young, come on, let's get in that end zone twice in this game. I don't care if you win. I don't care if you lose. Let's just show some improvement and get a couple touchdowns in this game. So there you go. That's mine. Yeah. Passing touchdowns. Yeah, I was looking at Mahomes over two and a half passing touchdowns plus 146. I couldn't get it under. Passing touchdowns is another bet that you hate to root for because it'd be like a third angle from the one. You're like, fade, throw fade. It's just like you feel dirty. You don't even like how it feels.

Texans Panthers is an interesting game to me, obviously, with like the rookie quarterbacks. When we get to the loss of the week, I'm going to talk about that game. I'm worried about the Panthers ability to score 14 points, let alone for those 14 points to come directly from Bryce Young. The Texans defense is a unit that I think is going to get better and better. They dealt with injury to start the season. I still don't see any Panthers pass catchers that scare me. Hopefully after Tuesday, I will. I'm not sure if this is the Bryce Young week.

I'm doubting you, Sheal. I feel good. That's good. Listen, that's what we need over here. We need some doubt. We need the nobody believes in us. as the big man says. No,

that will be the nobody believes in us team. All right. Nonsense prediction of the week. This one is not part of the contest. This is when we just need to breathe there because we're feeling the anxiety, the stress of having to get all these picks right. We're like,

let's just talk about something else for five minutes. What do you got? I like my nonsense predictions week too. It's good. What's your, tell me your Sunday morning schedule pregame, kind of what's your routine? What's your vibe?

Well, it's impossible to have a Sunday morning routine with all, with the international game schedule. All right. Immediate Crotchety Shield. I want to have a routine, but they're playing games on. I'm just saying when they're like one week you have to wake up. I don't know.

I don't have much of a routine. It's usually hang out with the kids, get some exercise, get some coffee. Okay. So since there's no international game this week, it's like, you know, it's 10 a.m. You said hi to the girls. You're in the home gym. Just pump an eye. Just say hi to the girls.

I mean, come on, I can spend a little more time. I'm not an absentee dad. Chee. For everyone who doesn't know. No, for everyone who doesn't know, by the way, Shield is a jacked dad. I discovered this in the Super Bowl. This past year blew my mind.

Last time I saw him, nothing like that is a jacked dad. Now it's great. And you go and you check your phone and it's a text from me. So obviously you read those. And it says, did you see the report? And you know, what report, Ben? Obviously, I'm not on Twitter. I'm too busy living my life or whatever.

And early in the morning during the Sunday pregame shows, we get one of those reports that's like not from Schepter or rap, but it's from like some other, like Jay Glazer, Peter Schrager, one of that offbeat like you know what I'm saying like it's just like an official report yeah I gotcha okay

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray is healthy enough to play in today's game against the Baltimore Ravens but the Cardinals will be keeping him off the field amid significant trade interest

from other teams before Tuesday's deadline right Tyler Murray was a full participant all right full in practice this week he is theoretically ready to go. But the Cardinals are not committing to playing him. And I think that that's fine from like

an injury and health perspective, right not. Keep your guy, you know, make sure he's 100%. But I think also it's convenient timing with the trade deadline coming up on Tuesday. Now obviously, Kyler Murray's contract is not built for being traded. And the Cardinals are a lot less in the first overall pick race than we maybe thought they would be. But this team is still at a very high draft pick. I wouldn't say a lot less. They're one game back. aren't they? They have one win. They're only behind the, uh, right? Yeah, they're one and six. Yeah, they're right there. They're right behind the Panthers. The Cardinals are still in the hunt for the first overall pick. In my head, I was like, they're doing great. I forgot. They have played

better. Yeah, they played more like a two-win team than a one-meat team. The Bears and the Broncos both won. They were one-lost teams like a week ago, and now the two-loss teams. And the Patriots. I had, yeah, I didn't realize how many one-lost teams just just cured themselves. or one win teams, excuse me. So yeah, the Cardinals are second there. Excellent. So they're in that position. Obviously, like, Kyler's contract is not, like, built to be traded.

Like, they just recently signed a huge one. Well, you can make stuff work when it comes to the movement of, like, a large franchise quarterback like this, like, in over discussions. So I think I'd be stunned if we see Kyler play in this game for health reasons, but also for health reasons with scare quotes. And I think that, like, you know, independent of, like, Jake Laser had a report this week where he was like, they're going to build around him or whatever.

I don't think they're trying to move him, but I do think that the phone's going to be ringing and seeing what the Kyla situation is, given the way that Josh Dobbs has played and given their draft pick selection. And so don't be surprised if on Sunday, we see that, you know, no, no Kyla Murray because of his knee,

but also because they're going to work the phones and then take calls for the next, you know, 48 hours, just kind of see what's what. I like that one. Yeah, it's, I mean, I think the Cardinals can move Kyler Murray. I just think if you're another team and he's coming off an injury and you're taking on that,

contract, like, is that going to meet? Are you going to be willing to offer the compensation you might offer if he had played, if he plays like six games this year and actually looks good and looks healthy? So to me, I think that's going to be more of an offseason thing, especially if they get a top two pick in this draft, then, you know, then they have a real decision to make, which I think would be, in my opinion, be a pretty easy decision. But maybe not in their minds, but I do like that one. That would be fun if there was a little juice to juice to this trade deadline. All right. Mine's not as juicy. My nonsense prediction. Lamar Jackson does not throw an incompletion until the fourth quarter against the Cardinals. So it's that's that same day.

I'm into it. So it's like, it's like the red zone's going to it. And they're like, oh my gosh, Lamar Jackson is 19 for 19 in this game against the Arizona Cardinals. Can he step the NFL record for completion percentage in a game or can he have the first perfect game in NFL history? Drew Brees is the tough one to be. 29 for 30 in a game against the Colts in 2019 for a completion 96.7%. Lamar Jackson has been very accurate. He is completing 71% of his passes this season.

Last week, maybe his best game. I don't know. He's had a lot of good games, but he was very impressive. In that game, completed 78% of his passes in that game. Six of seven games this year, Ben, he's completed 70% or more of his passes. It goes to what we've talked about. He's playing in a rhythm.

He's accurate. The modernized passing offense is everything everyone hoped it would be. And that Cardinals defense, I don't think it's very good. I think the 31st in DVOA opponents are completing over 70% of their passes. Just wait, who's their defensive coach again? I can't. Just what was his name? That would be Johnny Gantz.

Oh, Jonathan Gannon. That's who it was. Yeah, okay. Jonathan Gannon would be their head coach, not their defense. coordinator, I guess. But yeah, it's really been the offense that has kept that team afloat. I mean, their offense has been competent, mediocre. They're absolutely doing more with less on offense, on defense. They are not doing more with less. They kind of stink on defense. And so Lamar Jackson should have a big game there. All right. Now, I have a theory real

quick. My theory is that you made this your nonsense prediction because you went to look for Lamar Jackson passing props and they're not currently posted on the book. Is that correct? that's not correct. Okay, because the first prop I went to look for was Lamar Jackson Prasic props this week and they were posted and I was devastated. I do generally look for ones against the Cardinals. I do like to. And elite pass and keeping against Jonathan Gannon defense, baby cash it. Yeah, I did want to see that. But those unfortunately were not available. Like you said, all right, let's take a break. We're going to come back. We're rubbing our down. Yeah, we're taking deep breaths here. We've got to come through with our locks of the

week when we come back. All right. We are back on extra point taking the moment of truth. Now I've got, let's see, I've got two here that I like quite a bit and then I've got a third in bold. But if I, if I'm feeling some type of way when I get to that third one, I'm switching off of it and calling an audible. So that's where I am with mine. Do you, I feel like you have put in the work this week where you're, you're taking it personally. You're like, here are my three. Jill's not talking me in them out of, man, I'm making my own picks this week. Do I have that correct? I have my three locked in. There's no, no, last couple of weeks. Your face has just been different this whole episode. I mean, you are business. You're ready to go. All right. And it's where I do not like that

zero. I find that zero. Like, I'm the sort of person. I'll take no join. out of like going four for five like that does nothing for me i see a zero furious which is not a healthy way to live life and i'm trying to work on that but that's how i feel you're an NFL coach you you hate losing more than you enjoy winning there you go texans minus three and a half at the carolina panthers oh baby are you are you opposite this for me or no uh i pick the panthers in my column but i'm not touching uh this game now this does kind of stink uh texans are minus three and a half It's minus 102. You could have gotten minus three

if we recorded this pot at a different time, but we don't. And so I lose the hook, which does sting. We haven't had a push yet. We still haven't had a tie. We've had multiple.

That's crazy. Total goose eggs. No, we haven't pushed up anything. The traveling to Carolina, rookie quarterback on the road, like there's absolutely some challenge there. I do think, though, that this Texas team is better

just on both sides of the wall, very simply. And their ability to generate pressure against an offensive line that's struggle to protect Bryce Young. I think the, the designed looks also, D'Amico Ryan's is a terror on third down in terms of who he sends and when he sends.

That's going to really make Bryce Young struggle. I think unless the Panthers are able to give the ball consistently and beat this shaky run defense, stay ahead of script. I think they're really going to struggle to move the football. And as we've seen from the Panthers, the running game, the investment of Miles Sanders is just not where you want it to be. Now, critically, we did have an offensive coordinator change. And there's the potential for Frank Wright giving up play calling to Thomas Brown, the X-Rams,

running backs coach, a tight-end coach now become the Panthers OC. maybe that's a shot in the arm for this team. Maybe they come out with some stuff in the first couple of drives. It wasn't on film for the Texans. They get the jump on them. But we've seen the Panthers do that already. We've seen the Panthers get on top of teams.

And they had 14 and nothing over the Dolphins. They had a good stretch against the Seahawks, good stretch against the Lions. The opposites can move the ball down the field. They can't keep it together consistently. They don't have the talent, especially pass protection-wise. And then defensively, even when they're playing with a lead, they lack the horses, I think,

especially to stop a passing attack. It's been as good as the Texans here. I like Texas minus three and a half. DJ Stroud continues. He has been bawling out. He's when I did my trade value rankings, I'm like, how high do I put this guy? I'm like, I'll settle down.

It's only been six or seven games. But man, by the end of the season, is he a top five most valuable asset in the NFL? Possible on a rookie contract? I mean, man. The offensive rookie of the year battle that we all anticipated between C.J. Stroud, the top two selected quarterback and Fuku Nakua,

the 177th pick of the NFL draft. It's crazy that Stroud should be a lock, given how he's performed. He nearly set the record for passing attempts without an interception to start the career, and he's nowhere close because of the BYU kid over in Los Angeles. It's unreal.

By the way, I would say with Stroud, I think he has a chance to be in the running for most likable quarterback. I'm not saying, like, best quarterback. Have you seen some of these clips in the press conferences and stuff? Like, he's explaining plays. I don't know.

I guess that gets kind of shaken out of you after your rookie season probably or when things go badly, but I do like the personality quite a bit. I do feel like his agent was probably like, hey, you know how like the S2 test was a big thing? Why don't you just get in front of the mic and describe what one safety is doing?

It's going to blow some people's minds and it's working a charm. I forgot about that S2 test. What was that? That he scored poorly on that? Oh, this is the S2 game. Remember, Bryce Young was the big scorer and C.J. Shrout was the low scorer.

And Bryce Young went one and CJ Stroud went too and ask me, Shield, which one looks a little smarter on the field right now? Well, listen. Yeah. You don't have to take shots at Bryce Young for that. But my, yeah,

Stroud looks pretty much as polished and he has the, I know exactly what I'm looking at on every snap gene that like I don't know that I've seen from another quarterback since we've been doing that. All right, there you go. You've got the Texans. Listen,

I'm just going to play the type and ride with my people. Joey Burrow. Come on, baby. Let's go to San Francisco. we're taking the Bengals plus four and a half at the San Francisco 49ers. Maybe this is a suckers bet. I don't know. We talked about this game at the top.

We don't know if it's going to be Purdy. We don't know if it's going to be Donald. I'll tell you what, I am not a darnal truth. I don't think Donald is going to play well in this offense. I think people are going to have more of an appreciation for Brock Purdy when they see kind of what the drop-off looks like between him and Sam Darnold in this offense. Now, this Bengals team, I'm not telling you, they've been like, need to look like a totally different team than they've looked like so far for me to win this

one because I've been in Bengals on Bengals Island, whatever, and I'm telling you that it has not been impressive to my eyes that I've had concerns pretty much every week. Now, they get the buy week. I'm hoping that means a reset. I'm hoping that means they get a little bit healthier. If it is Darnold, I'm hoping that means that Big Lou is able to cook something up that just has his head spinning in this game. And so I think I really like Burrow when he's an underdog. I saw this nugget on Action Network. Joe Burrow as an underdog of three points or more, 14 and 2 against the spread in his career.

So listen, that doesn't mean it's going to do it this week. But typically in this role, he's been pretty good. They need this game. They're three and three. They don't have to win it. I did think about this. This was the other one I thought about for my long shot, by the way. It was Bengals Money Line.

Just take them straight up. I think it was plus 160. But I ended up going with Bryce Young. So there you go. I'm going Bengals plus four and a half. I'm really, really interested to see the passing offensive plan for Burrow and the Bengals. Because I was thinking about like, all right, like, what did Kirk Cousers just do to this unit? Can we do it in Cincinnati, right?

It's gun stuff. It's spread stuff. Like, they're not really doing like the Shanigan stuff to get this done. But the problem is you need time to throw. If you're going to throw, you know, the Kirk routes, like all these 14-yard breakers, you got to stand back there for a little bit. You know what the Bengals are not doing this year? Leaving Burrough back there for more than two seconds, right?

Bro's getting rid of the ball so fast. And that might neutralize this pass. a little bit, but I would worry about how much, like, those receivers are going to get lit up. My main worry about this Bengals offense, how it's currently constructed has been the health of the receivers, the amount of body blows they're going to take, and against a secondary that hits like this Niners defense, I wouldn't want to be playing this game in a Bengals uniform. I wouldn't want to be Jamar Chase or a Tyler Boyd. I'm going to take shots to the ribs for four quarters.

Oh, got to earn a paycheck tonight. It's going to be tough. All right. There you go. Bengals are right. Give me your second lock of the week. What do you got? Falcons minus two and half against the Titans.

Oh, baby! Now, a little birdie told me that you were writing about me in the Picks column this week. I was dropped a line by a friend who sent it to me. There's Shiel in the Picks column this week. He says, here's the deal. I mean, we should give them credit. Is it somebody in the industry? It was Ringer fact checker, Daniel Comer.

Who's my boy? I love DC. He's a Falcons fan. We appreciate that. Sheel says, I could go with Mike Brable and underdog role, which I generally like to do. But then if the Falcons deliver a convincing win, not only do I have to take the L here,

but I also have to deal with Ben Solac, annoying me on our next pod. If I pick the Falcons, then they cover. I still have to deal with Solac, but at least I get the win here. Meanwhile, if the Titans winner cover, I take the L in this column, but it's going to make fun of Solac.

Okay, it was helpful to talk that one out. My choice is easy. So he just sent me the text. I don't know what team you picked from that text. I don't know. That doesn't seem like an easy choice. to me. I hear's what I know.

First of all, Comer, just send the link next time. I want those views up on the column. So no copying, pasting next time. Just send the link there to Solek. Everyone, of course, can read that on the ringer.com. All right, you give me your explanation for the Falcons, and I will tell you what your pick is. Well, Willis, and Malik Willis are going to be playing a quarterback

carousel for the Tennessee Titans. And that's my whole explanation right there. So why is this line only two and a half? Because I can't figure that out. because the Titans are the Titans and Brable's not in Brable at home and oh, let the football at ball control. Yeah.

Now, I like what I've seen from Ritter in recent weeks. I like the way the Falcons' offices worked in recent weeks. Obviously, there's been a ton of opinions about that. I am right. Everybody else is wrong. Listen to the Tuesday pod if you don't think so.

The other thing that is very important and interesting to this game is that Arthur Smith was a coach for the Titans, right? He was an officer coordinator there. And Shane Bowen wasn't coordinating the defense the entire time he was there, but Shane Bowen was on that defensive staff. There is system familiarity here in terms of when the Falcons hold the ball. And when that's the case, I typically tend to like the defensive side, right? I assume I tend to like the offensive side knowing what the defense is doing,

being able to anticipate some of the checks, knowing how to get them into some sticky spots. So I do like that familiarity. I like the way the Falcons have played ball in recent weeks. I think the Falcons have been so much better offensively than the points and the drive results would indicate. I think that and then this defense, I like this defense a lot. I trust his defense, and I don't think we will love us from Malik Willis is going to be able to do anything either their first start or in Malik Willis rotating in as an option quarterback. I think that's going to be a mess.

I think the Falcons. Yeah, I mean, there's really not a great case on paper to take the Titans here, unless you're just like, which I often do, you're just like, Braybal as an underdog blindly. I'm taking him here. And so I did think about that. We all, I mean, Malik Willis and the Titans took the chiefs, what, to overtime, right? That was last year. in that game. So like he has a,

Brable has a history of doing this, but man, this just feels like a different version of this Titans team. So I did take the Falcons because, I mean, that was the reasoning that I had in the column. If I took the Titans here and then I lose the pick

and I have to hear about from Solac that's like a double whammy. I'm not doing that. So I'm taking the Falcons. If the Falcons cover, all right, now I get annoyed by Solac, but guess what? At least I got the pick right in the column and I'll take that. And if I get the pick wrong, well, you know, then I can tell Solek how are the Falcons look at this week. So that's how I hedge. That's how I make this decision. There's really no other

science behind it. So there you go. At least you're honest to your readers being like, I have a, I have this kid who annoys me twice a week on the real NFL show feed and he will be affecting my decision on Falcons game from here and out. You always got to be honest with the audience. All right. I don't think you're going to like my next one based on what you said earlier. I don't think I've taken the Chiefs at all this year. I'm taking the Chiefs seven and a half at Denver. Chiefs had the offensive explosion last week versus the Chargers. They're healthy on offense. The Broncos got the win last week against the Packers. I don't know how impressed I was by that. That Packers offense is struggling. I'm not convinced that Denver has really figured anything out.

Their defense has played a little bit better, but against this Chief's offense, I don't know. And again, I think this Chief's defense is pretty good. I like how the they match up against this Broncos offense. So they played a couple weeks ago. It was kind of a weird sort of game that the chiefs ended up covering 19 to 8. And so this number, I think that line was what, around 10 or 10 and a half. Yeah, it was 10 and a half.

And that was the game where there was a four drive sequence of all turnovers, right? I think that's right. Yeah, it was a Thursday nighter, right? Yeah. Yeah, it went, it went turnover on downs, field goal, interception, intercept. in punt turnover on downs. Those were the first six drives in order. Great game to start. I'm surprised I don't remember. I'm surprised I don't remember it more fondly there, given how good it was. So this number is obviously three points lower than that one. I don't

really know a good reason for that other than the games being played in Denver. I'm going with the Chiefs here minus seven and a half. I don't I don't hate it. I'm nowhere on this this game spread wise. I'm on the total going over. And so in a high scoring game, you tend to favor a favorite, a favorite at more than a touchdown that was worrisome because if we're in a shootout, then we're probably in a one-score game. And so there's there's evidence towards it. There's evidence away from it a little bit.

I don't mind it. I'm not in a position where I'm fading the Broncos offense in this game. I think that the Chiefs' events is playing well overall, but I also think that like Broncos advanced metrics-wise should be better and more productive on offense than they are, and they're just kind of missing some of the explosives. So they're not stringing things together the way they need to and they're turnover heavy.

Some of that stuff is stuff you expect to regress. And so I think I'll be like quietly buying the Broncos offense for the next few weeks. Obviously against my homes is not a day to buy them outright, but so I wouldn't be surprised if you see a lot of points in this one. All right. There you go. What do you have for your last one? Dolphins minus nine and a half at home against the Patriots.

Patriots, huge, emotional win. We're a two-win team against the Buffalo Bills. We did it. We're the best. We're not the worst. What a relief. So this is a letdown spot in Patriots land, right? Like I said, like I was on the Patriots against the Raiders.

I didn't cover there. I like the Patriots against the bills. They get the cover there. Like I thought they would pick themselves up out of the cavern of those big 30-point losses and they have. But this is not a week to keep buying them. I think it's a let-down spot for them. It's worth noting that even as they win that Bill's game,

what are you still hearing from reporting? It's that Mike and Wen, and Wichie might be available and Josh Uche might be available. And Cal Dugger, like they know what sort of team they are. You know what I'm saying? and they're not framing themselves like, let's get back into this sort of a team. They kind of know their character at this point.

And they got a Dolphins team that's coming off for that Eagles loss, coming off of the worst offensive performance that they've had with Tuat quarterback. This feels like a spot for a big boost up, right? This feels a spot for a big get-right opportunity. Tyreek Hill, obviously the key receiver star player for the Dolphins, practice inavailability because of his hip.

He told reporters that he'd be good to go on Sunday. I expect him to play on Sunday. And then we have a familiarity game. Dolphins and the Patriots did play earlier this season. Dolphins were in control of that game, multiple scores pretty much the whole way, before losing the game 24-17 late. And so they didn't cover this line at the time when they played them. I think that they're going to be in a position where they're going to be controlling by multiple scores again.

And they're just hoping not to lose to the back door. Patriots also threw a ton of curveballs of them defensively in that game. They walked out with like three safety sets, like Iowa State Big 12 defense. And it took the dolphins a couple drives to be like, okay, we go here when they do this. All right, cool. This time you're a little bit, it's harder to come pitching curveballs at the second at bat, right?

They've seen the pitches now a little bit. They know what they want to hit. And so I don't think you're going to be able to get the jump on Mike McDaniel as easily as Bill Belichick did the first time. I like the dolphins to win him in big. In the throwbacks, I forgot, in the gorgeous white throwbacks.

All right, we're going to. Yeah, I like, I picked the dolphins in my column. I thought about this one. The injuries scared me off a little bit. Like you mentioned, Tyree Kill, said he's going to play. He's got the hip injury. Rahim Mostert was limited.

on Thursday's practice with an ankle injury. Jalen Waddle had the back injury. He was in and out of that game against the Eagles. He's got a bunch of guys on defense. They played last week with no Xavier and Howard, no Jalen Ramsey there. So all those things made me a little bit nervous, but I didn't pick them as one of my locks, but I absolutely agree with the overall take here

that you're probably getting some value because people are like, hey, maybe the Patriots aren't that bad. They got that big win last week. And oh, the Dolphids, maybe they're not that good. They lost the Eagles. I still think there's a huge. huge gap between these two teams and that the dolphins are a very good team and the Patriots are a very bad team. So I like Miami there, although I didn't make it one of my picks.

You watch that Dolphins Eagles film, yeah, for a really special? Yeah. You watch that David Long linebacker there? Oh my, yeah. He had the one rep against Jack stole. He just, oh, that guy was playing with violence. Yeah, that's, he looked great. We love to toss all football hipsters. Oh, they love David Long. And then when David Long has an elite game, Pete, just nothing cricket. What a shame. He had a great game. There's no doubt about it. Him and Christian Wilkins, I would say, were the two guys on that Dolphins defense. And I was like, ooh, they are.

Dolphins defense. And we also, we saw some, like, Jalen Ramsey's going to play. And then Jalen Ramsey tweeted and was like, no one told me I was going to play. Altogether, Dolphins defense was a shaky unit to start. I think they're getting better week over week even without the additions. Ramsey and Holland might come back soon. Dolphins are a team to buy low on right now, in my opinion. I didn't think they played a bad defensive game Sunday against the Eagles.

All right. My last one, Pittsburgh, Mike Tomlin, can you forgive me? Will you take me back? I'm sorry I betrayed you. Plays, Steelers, plus two and a half versus the Jaguars. I made a mistake last week. Listen, we all make mistakes, relationships in your lives. You do, you say things you don't mean.

you end things when you shouldn't have. We all live with regret. I'm living with regret. I didn't stick with the Steelers and Mike Tomlin last week. I went in the opposite direction. And what happened? He burned me. Kenny Pickett, burn me.

Deontay Johnson burned me. George Pickens burned me. T.J. Watt burned me. I'm sure there was stuff in their locker room all about this. And they responded, well, now I am begging. I am begging you, Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers to take me back. I will never doubt you in that underdog role again. specifically at home, specifically against a Jaguars team, which I should like a lot.

But man, they let teams hang around and they do some dumb stuff. And I just can't get all in with them right now. So even against the Saints, I mean, Foster Monroe drops that ball in the end zone. That is somehow a tie game. I mean, they dominate that game and that's somehow a tie game. So I don't fully trust this Jaguars team. I think this is too much respect, road favorites in Pittsburgh. I know Pittsburgh is a little.

Fraudulent is not the right word, but they're probably not playing as well as a four and two team. There's no doubt about it, but I feel like this is the exact type of spot where they show up, where their defense shows up, where they make a play on special teams, where they create a turnover, where they make some plays downfield to George Pickens, and they come out and they win this game. I'm going Steelers plus two and a half at home against Jacksonville. This is, I'm so confident we're going to get back on track this week because we're back to Sheal, just taking Tomlin as an underdog. don't worry about the opponent. Don't worry about the context. I feel like this and everything. Mike Tomlin as an underdog,

we are back to basics. We're back to fundamentals. Listen, we're like, we're like, you know, the lions after the loss to the Ravens,

the Dolva's after loss to the Eagles. Guys, that was embarrassing, but we know we're a good team. We're going to get back to what we do well. And what we do well is taking Mike Tomlin as an underdog against the spread.

Here we go, team. All right, so this week was get back to fundamentals, have good practices. Now, so like, if we have a terrible week

this week, you know what we're doing next week. It was selling of the trade deadline. It's going to be a new co-host. No, the next step, we've got to have a player's only meeting. I mean, that's the next step. Listen, if we go, listen, what's the number? If we combine for fewer than what, four points, let's make it a relatively, yeah.

Yeah, if we get fewer than four points combined, this week, we're having a players-only meeting. There's going to be repercussions. We had never had a week worse than five. five points until this past year we had total zero. So if we got to get back, right, five or better. That's why we were back. Yes. Okay.

Five or better. Please. Oh, I'm already feeling the anxiety. We're fine. We're fine. You are too. I can see it on your face.

Don't lie. I was until you took Steelers underdog. And then I was like, oh, yes. Last week, you were not on the Steelers as an underdog. I was. That's true. That's true.

That's true. The universe was Chomsy Turvy. All right. That's true. Mirror dimension. We are back. Out of the upside down, everything is as it should be.

go Steelers, go whoever I took Falcons. All makes sense now. I have a terrible towel in here somewhere. You do? Yeah, because when I did the athletic podcast, I lost a bet there, which was also take the Steelers as an underdog related, and I had to wave a terrible towel

for an entire segment there. So I've got that somewhere. I'll break that bad boy out if the Steelers got out. Are you following the terrible towel drama with Trevor Lawrence? I saw something. What did he said? They're small little towels.

So he got asked, he was like, are you too young to know what a terrible towel is? And he was like, no, I know what they are. The little yellow towels that they swing around, right? And it was all he did was say like, the little yellow towels they swing around. Like that like, in his head, he's just like a towel is something I use after their shower. This is a smaller towel, little yellow towel. Steelers fans are making bulletin board material. Bill Cowher was on Pat McAfee being like, you can't disrespect the terrible towel.

He was just describing the thing. No, no, no, no. It's so ridiculous. Listen, we've got Steelers plus two and a half. I find that to be the most disrespectful thing. Any player has said about anyone. This is worse than Sean Payton talking about Nathaniel Hackett. As far as I'm concerned, get that in the Steelers locker.

You don't disrespect the small little towel. Yeah, I can't, I should have made nonsense prediction after the win. You know, T.J. Watt says someone makes sure they get Trevor a little towel for his head. T.J. Watt's strips sack into maybe Trevor Lour should have dried his hand on that little towel in his belly. new nonsense prediction, lock in it. There you go. All right, give us your recap, Ben. What are the picks for this week on your end?

I am on. Falcons minus two and a half at Titans. Texans minus three and a half at Panthers and Dolphins minus nine and a half at home against the Patriots. Logan Thomas will have over 31 and a half receiving yards against the Eagles this week,

and the Chargers will beat the Braers by at least two touchdowns on Sunday night football. I've got Bengals plus four and a half at the Niners, Chiefs minus seven and a half at Denver. dealers, home dogs. Oh, it feels good to say it again. Plus two and a half versus the Jaguars.

Those are my locks of the week. I have got Russell Wilson under 218.5 passing yards as my prop of the week. And then the long shot of the week. Come on, Bryce Young, over 1.5 passing touchdowns. Just get me 10. It's not a lot. It's 14 points. You can get 14 points. Two passing touchdowns.

Plus 168 as my long shot of the week. All right. Let's get back on. baby it's a big week eight for extra point we're on to Cincinnati baby here we go it's like we're not even competing against each other we're just competing for the integrity of the show at this point like we cannot embarrass the show we will we will look back on the zero week fondly we're cruising 60% wins have hit a couple long shots somebody's hit a full sweep nobody's had an eight point or a seven point that's true seven pointer let's both get a seven pointer here right it's down as it

work because of how points work, extra point taken. You get it. Right. We'll look back and remember that zero week. Oh, what a time. We were such young men. We'll be sitting on rocking chairs. It'll be great. That was the time to buy. Buy low. All right. Thank you to Ben Solac. Thank you to Cliff Augustine for producing. Thanks to Eduardo Ocampo for his video production. Additional production supervision by Connor and Evans and Arjuna Romgopal. Next up, Nora and Stephen on dual threat Sunday night, recapping all of the week eight games. They'll be sure to check that out. All right. Thanks to everyone for listening. Have a great weekend, and we will talk to you next week. Must be 21 plus and present in select states. Fandwell is offering online sports wagering in Kansas

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