The Ringer NFL Show - NFL Week 9 Picks, Props, and Predictions! | Extra Point Taken

Episode Date: November 3, 2023

Sheil and Ben get you set for this intriguing Week 9 slate, but first review the Steelers' 20-16 victory over the Titans on 'Thursday Night Football.' Who would you take: Will Levis or Kenny Pickett? ...There’s some huge storylines this week, including Dallas heading to Philly for a big NFC East matchup. Plus, Locks of the Week and Nonsense Predictions! The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please check out theringer.com/RG to find out more, or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Sheil Kapadia and Ben Solak Producer: Cliff Augustin Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Musical Elements: Devon Renaldo Social: Eduardo Ocampo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 The ringer gambling feat is your one-stop shop for all things betting throughout the NFL season. From week one all the way through Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas, we have you covered every which way. We got our favorite futures. We got props. We'll discuss the lines. And, of course, we'll throw in a few parlets. That's a given. So whether you're a sharp or square better, we'll be breaking it down in terms.
Starting point is 00:00:24 Hopefully, everybody can understand. We'll try to win some money along the way. So be sure to subscribe to the ring of gambling feed on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Extra Boyt, it's Sheila. It's week of potter here, joined by Ben Solac. It's week nine. It is a weird week. It's a week filled with a bunch of blockbuster matchups, and then it's a week filled
Starting point is 00:01:00 with a bunch of games. We don't even know who's starting your quarterback, and we're recording this on Friday morning. We're going to talk about all of it, the weekend. Now, make some picks, make some predictions, some headliners. Ben Solac. How you feeling after that Titan Steelers, Thursday Night Thriller? Oh, Barnburner. What a lovely one.
Starting point is 00:01:19 I got exactly what I wanted out of that game, which was unlike the fifth drive, just tweeting, if you could start a franchise right now, who would you pick, Will Levis or Kenny Pick it? And getting 98% Willeves' response. Just farming Steelers' frustration.
Starting point is 00:01:35 All is delicious. This, even after they were like scoring a touchdown of their first try, which they haven't done in a year that starts with it, too. I know you're a big fan of halfways, Sheel. I'm a huge fan of halfways. What does that mean? I don't even know what that is.
Starting point is 00:01:49 Like, we're at the halfway point of the season. Like, let's talk about more. Oh, okay, gotcha. Okay. I know, I know you love a halfway. Obviously, now we have an odd number of weeks. Week 9 is the halfway point. We have, I think it's, it's, I think it's, we have eight total games in the early slate.
Starting point is 00:02:07 And then we have like three, four o'clock games, an eight o'clock, then a Monday game. Somewhere during the one o'clock games, So I'm like two-thirds away through the one-clock games. It would be the halfway point. So everybody, when there's like five minutes left in the third quarter, just got to tweet out your MVPs really quick. Get coach to the year out there. I mean, that's your halfway point.
Starting point is 00:02:23 Can't get it out right then. Can't wait to celebrate the peak, the halfway point of the year coming up. There you go. You're already preparing me for the Monday night show. Now I can just, you know, have some takes about here. Here's who's this. Oh, yeah. Because definitely you weren't going to do halfway recap awards on the Monday night show
Starting point is 00:02:38 unless I gave you the idea, for sure. I mean, we're five, We're three minutes in, and he's already taking shots. Everybody hear that. All right, let's get to the good stuff. We got good games to talk about. I think four great games. So, you know, we'll get to all of them eventually.
Starting point is 00:02:53 But what's your headliner? So, like, what's the game or what's the theme, the storyline that you've got your eye on in week nine? Yeah, I, of the four games, we have Dolphins Chiefs at 930 in the morning, Eastern Time. That's the Germany game. And then in the one o'clock, slate, we have Seattle at Baltimore, the 4 o'clock. slate, we have Dallas at Philadelphia, and then for Sunday night football, we have Buffalo at Cincinnati. It's an unbelievable run of uninterrupted, excellent games. All spread out.
Starting point is 00:03:20 I love that, too. The one that I'm most excited to see is Dallas at Philadelphia. This is the only way this conference gets interesting is if Dallas can at least take one off of Philadelphia, right? Philly's got like a big set of games coming up. They're going to play Buffalo. They're going to play San Francisco. They're going to play Kansas City.
Starting point is 00:03:41 they're going to play Seattle. There's a way that the Eagles, like, win the two Dallas games, but lose enough games that the division gets back into it. But with the Niners having lost now, these last three games, the Eagles have a comfortable lead on the Niners. They have a one-game lead on the Lions, but I think for most people, they look like a better team in the Lions. They have a one-game lead on the Seahawks.
Starting point is 00:04:00 I think for most people, they look like a better team than the Seahawks. If there's a team that's been playing well enough to challenge them, to kind of bring this conference back to a point where it doesn't feel like there's one horse that's running away. with it. I think it's this Dallas team and it's this matchup. A couple weeks ago, I came on the show, Sheal, and talked about how I think that the Cowboys fixes and passing offense will be fine and will be acceptable and will be achievable by Mike McCarthy. And if they're not, easily fire the guy because they're very simple, but I think
Starting point is 00:04:28 you can get this done. And they have. Shield, motion rates are up in the Mike McCarthy offense pre-snap motion as I live and breathe. All right? Play actresses. See, Lam's playing on the outside now. We've taken our best player and we've put him in the position where most wide receivers are successful. Who could have thunked it? What a treat!
Starting point is 00:04:51 For the last few weeks, DAC has been a top 10 quarter, over the season, he's a top 10 quarterback now by success rate and by EPA. For the last couple of weeks, he's been consistently a top five quarterback. He's a number one quarterback in the league right now against the Blitz,
Starting point is 00:05:03 which has always been the thing that Prescott does so well. They've gotten the CDLAM, like I said, on the outside, activated. This passing game is working the way that we hoped it would, the way that we thought it would. And now it goes up against a Philadelphia team
Starting point is 00:05:15 that I think there's been some challenge calibrating to this Eagles defense because one week they're stopping the dolphins for more, for fewer points than the dolphins have ever scored, whatever, and then the next week they're just giving up 30 to Sam Howell. But in general, like an agnostic of matchup and kind of how you plan for a defense or whatever,
Starting point is 00:05:36 we can say that this passing defense is pretty susceptible, right? I mean, there are enough weak points on this team that you can get after it. The C.D. Lamb aspect of this is the most interesting aspect of it. Like I said, his snaps on the outside, his success on the outside have increased over the last few weeks. Well, the Eagles aren't weak to the outside. They'll be weak to the slot, right? You can put them on the outside. You get James Badbury and Dariuslaying Carwood.
Starting point is 00:05:56 You put them on the inside. You get potentially Sidney Brown or you get potentially Josiah Scott. You get potentially Reblank in Chiv. They have a number of guys. Bradley Robey might be back from injury. He rotates down. You like the matchup a lot better. So I'll be curious to see how they play hide and see with CDLLam.
Starting point is 00:06:09 lamb. They've really been oriented on getting him activated recently. That matchup when the Cowboys have the ball is the most critical side of things. And then defensively for the Cowboys, not enough can be said. We're in a spot where we're like a little bit tired of talking about Dan Quings, our third year doing it. Not enough can be said about the fact that the Cowboys lost Trayvon Diggs in the middle of the week to a practice injury and just said, don't worry about it. Doron Bland is one of the best corners in the league. We found him in the fifth round last year and just plugged and chugged. It is, they lost Layton Van Derrash for a stretch. They lost Trayvon Diggs for a stretch. They're the fifth best past defense in the league. It is unbelievable how well this back seven has
Starting point is 00:06:48 rallied around their injuries, how well they're executing despite Trayvon Diggs. They haven't had enormous tests, right? The first week, the Niners got absolutely, you know, got their teeth kicked in, you know, they were reeling stuff from the injury. For the last couple weeks, not crazy, huge test, but the Rams passing off, it's nothing to sneeze at, and they held it down. Now they get this Eagles passing attack in Agia Brown. What's the answer going to be, there with no Trayvon Diggs. So this is a star wide receiver matchup and a huge matchup in the NFC. It's, uh, there's so much juice to this game. I think Hertz and Prescott have only been healthy for one matchup against each other, uh, in their career. So now whether, you know,
Starting point is 00:07:23 Jalen Hertz is not 100% healthy in this game, but still those are your two starting quarterbacks here. You have AJ Brown. You have C.D. Lamb. You have, uh, Micah Parsons. You have Jalen, like there is a lot of juice to this game. And to your point, when we look at these four matchups this week. And we, you know, I'm excited for all of them. But when we said, well, which one might have the greatest implications to what we're talking about after week 18? Like you said, it's this one. Because in the NFC East, it's possible that one of these teams gets the one seat and the other one gets the five seat. There is a big difference in those two things. There is getting the buy and playing at home. And there's having to win on the road three times to get to the Super Bowl that as your
Starting point is 00:08:04 Super Bowl path. Now, that's not a given. Lions will have something to say about it. Niners will probably still have something to say about it. Seahawks are right there. So there's a lot of football to be played, but just when we look at where things are right now, that's why the stakes are so high. And you mentioned some of the great matchups. I mean, C.D. Lamb inside, that's a trouble area for the Eagles, no doubt about it.
Starting point is 00:08:24 I mean, they've been rotating at Nickel last week. They play a rookie Sydney Brown on early downs, and then they bring in Eli Ricks, who is a player that probably most of our audience has never heard of on passing downs. And so are you doing that again with CD's? lamb in the slot, are you doubling him? I will say Sean DeSye, the Eagles new defensive coordinator this year. One thing we've learned about him through the first half of the season, he's not stubborn. He doesn't go in with like one thing. If anything, he like changes at a more rapid rate that I've
Starting point is 00:08:51 seen from many. It's like, oh, this happened, this possession. All right, next possession, we're doing this. That could be doubling lamb. That could be changing coverages. That could be a number of different things. So that's fun on one side of the ball. And then the other side of the ball, you mention it. The Cowboys defense has been playing great. Duran, I'll give you. I'll give you. credit you were all over Duran Blaine very early last year as a player to keep an eye on. And now everybody say, all right, oh, do this Duran plan. Like, he's been incredible to them. Like, sometimes film watching is like, it's like hard and it's like nerdy, right?
Starting point is 00:09:20 We were like, oh, this player's got some like good reps in this role when he's in this technique and he puts on weight. Sometimes the guy has just such unspeakable juice that you're like, he's good, moving on. And that was Duran Blan. You watch him play for like three steps. One of his earliest games against the Eagles. He had AJ Brown on the slot. He's just like punching him. They're like down four pounds down or down four inches, down 30 pounds.
Starting point is 00:09:40 Just like step for step back. All right, that guy can play. He belongs. Moving on. He's been such a delight to watch. Yeah. So playing against these Eagles receivers, what do they do about A.J. Brown? I mean, he's just been over 125 yards, six straight games.
Starting point is 00:09:54 Do they double him? Then you got Devante Smith and Dallas Scottard. The matchups up front. Cowboys have injuries up front. Tyron Smith did not practice Wednesday and Thursday. They started Chuma Idoga. last week. He was limited in practice Thursday.
Starting point is 00:10:10 One of those, an injured left tackle or a backup against Josh Sweat? Ooh, that is not. And then on the eagle side of things, Tyler Steen, the rookie at Guard might be making his first start.
Starting point is 00:10:20 Sue O'Petton backing up Cam Jorgans there. They might get Jorgans back. They might play Steen. We might get a Chuma Doga game and a Tyler Steen game where it's just Greg Olsen being like, yep, they're going after this guy when they have this ball,
Starting point is 00:10:31 when they have the ball on the other side of the ground for that guy when they have the ball over here. Like the, the defensive pass rush matchups are, for both these teams, every week enormous. And then in this game, when you have offensive line injuries, it's going to get a little focused real quick.
Starting point is 00:10:45 Yeah, I love how the Cowboys and Dan Quinn gets credit for this to, you know, how they use part. I mean, they will have Parsons. Where's the weak link? Okay. Move him, move him around.
Starting point is 00:10:55 He will find this guy. He'll line up over the center. He'll be all over the place. So yes, if that is a weak link for the Eagles at right guard, the Cowboys will certainly find it. So a very juicy matchup, a very exciting game. The Cowboys are old school with how they play.
Starting point is 00:11:10 You know, we talk all about the two high shells, and the Cowboys are like, nope, we're going to be among the league leaders in man coverage and single high. I think they're rushing five or more at like a top 10 rate in the NFL. So they are aggressive. They are not a sit back and force the offense to be methodical type defense. And I'm excited to see how that works against this Eagles offense. Do you have a peg for this game? I do. I might be getting to it later.
Starting point is 00:11:36 All right. Good to hear. We'll talk about it then. Okay. I was going to say if you want to give your pick, if it's not in, if it is not on my list, but we'll talk where I lean when we get to it. Okay. All right. We'll do that. All right. My headliner, and again, you really could choose any of the four games this week. I'm going Bengals Bills Sunday night. Football. You know, I felt like we talked a lot about the Chiefs on the Monday show. We'll still get to that game Chiefs Dolphins. That's a fun one. And Raven Seahawks. But Bengals, Bill's such a fascinating game because the Bengals,
Starting point is 00:12:09 like, yeah, I'm telling the rest of the NFL has got to feel like, oh, we should not have let them stay in this while Joe Burrow had that injury. They come out last week, played close to a perfect game against the San Francisco 49ers, at least offensively. I mean, Joe Burrow couldn't miss. He was scrambling. He was checking a QB draws. He was hitting him when he's hitting himself in the helmet, you know, just smacking himself after a first down. That's when, you know, Joe Burrow. is back. He looked fantastic. 29 first downs, 400 yards of offense. Now, I'm, the analytical part of me, Solek is like, you know, the one who's like, everybody calmed down. It's like, it was one game.
Starting point is 00:12:43 It was one game that they looked like that. Yes, it could be. It could be the game that leads to them going on a run, but it was only one game. So maybe chill out just a little bit, because everyone knows I'm a fan of this Bengals team. They were my pick to win the Super Bowl here before the season. So you've got that. You've got the history from last year. not only the DeMar Hamlin game, but then the playoff game where the Bengals, the Bengals, Ben, are the only team that has beat the bills by more than six points in the last two years. That was a playoff game, yeah. For all the ups and downs of the bills and all, guess what?
Starting point is 00:13:16 They generally just don't lose a game by more than one possession. When they lose, it's a close game, even this year. They're five and three. All three of their losses have been by six points or fewer. So you've got that. You've got the wrinkle of the Josh Allen. Shoulder injury doesn't practice on Wednesday. practices Thursday. We've seen him play injured before. Sometimes it looks the same. Sometimes
Starting point is 00:13:35 it doesn't look the same. So Bengals are like younger and more athletic and it feels like their arrow is pointing up and it feels like everybody's sort of soured on the bills and it hasn't looked quite right and they've got the Josh Allen injury. But man, no one's going to be surprised if the bills come out in this game and just light it up and beat Cincinnati. So I can't wait for this one on Sunday night. What did I miss? What are you keeping an eye on for in this game? Yeah, I think that you bring up the, hey, Bill's, uh, the only game they've lost by double digits. It's going to be, you know, like, this, that was just to the Bengals. You know that?
Starting point is 00:14:10 I know that. Listeners know that. You know who else knows that? The Buffalo Bill's staff and locker room. Like, that's the sort of stat that like teams dial in on, right? Like they care about the, the, especially in the playoffs, a team that kind of blows them out like that. This right here is the Sean McDermott heat check game where, uh, that game that
Starting point is 00:14:28 game that they lost by multiple scores to the Bengals, the playoffs. They, they went down 14-0 after the first two drives. And it's because Joe Burrow knew where every single player on defense was lining up where they were heading and who they were covering on every single snap. I'm pretty sure he went 11 for 11 or 9 for 9 on the first two drives. I can't recall. But I'm pretty sure no incompletions. I think they had one third down and they scored 14 points. Like they walked it down the field against what was supposed to be one of the best defense in the playoffs, one of the best defense in the league. And the frustration that like the film watchers like me,
Starting point is 00:15:03 Steven, you would call us the hipsters. We're just, you know, whatever, watch film. The frustration that we always had with that Bill's
Starting point is 00:15:08 defense was that that's how they were with Leslie Fisher. They would just line up and play. They're like, R-11 or better than you're 11, so we're just going to line up here and beat you. And against Joe Burr, you can't do it.
Starting point is 00:15:17 You have to pitch him change up. You can't just throw fast balls down the plate at him. He's going to crush him. You have to show him something he hasn't seen. Well, Sean McDermy comes in to take over this defense, and they're more variable than they were. They change coverages more,
Starting point is 00:15:29 and they blitz more, and they do more funky stuff. And the entire objective of dialing up that aggressiveness, dialing up that creativity was not necessarily to be better against the Mac Joneses of the world and the Zach Wilson's of the world because you were lining up 11 and killing them beforehand. Like that works against bad quarterbacks. It was to beat the Patrick Mahomes and beat the Joe Burroughs of the world.
Starting point is 00:15:49 That's why you make a change like that. It is to say when we see these top quarterbacks, we'll be able to actually take some wind out of their sails. So this is the game for which Sean McDermott took over the defense. It is exactly this sort of a matchup. In his head, he was going to have Tredavius White and Matt Milano for this game. Two very important pieces to achieving a let's stop the Bengals approach. With that said, they've hung out at linebacker decently well.
Starting point is 00:16:16 Terrell Bernard, I think, being a nice young player, we stepped up for them. They've made an addition at cornerback in Rassul Douglas, but off of the deadline, like, I don't think I'm going to be able to stick him out there and be successful too much. I think that they have enough in terms of like tackling and in terms of taking the short stuff and keeping it in front of them and being physical that they can slow the Bengals down enough to win. Like I see the window.
Starting point is 00:16:40 I see the world in which they have like a nice, solid, resolute defensive performance and then obviously the offense handles itself and they win this game. I think there's universes in which it happens. Bengals are favored and rightfully so. But I do think like the thing I'm watching for in this game, what I've got my finger on the pulse of,
Starting point is 00:16:57 is how this bill's defense after the getting back to the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year, how they've changed, how they've adapted to this particular unit, this particular quarterback, who frankly just embarrassed them in the first quarter when they faced them last year. Yeah, the Bengals in that game, 31st downs and 412 yards ran the ball well to 172 yards in the ground in that playoff matchup. I mean, listen, if the Bill's defense comes out and plays well and like bottles up the Bengals here, I will be, you know, giving Sean McDermott all kinds of praise. And they could do that. He's come up with creative game plans and wrinkles before. I mean, he's been a coaching defense for a long time. I just look at sort of the talent, and we talked about this.
Starting point is 00:17:41 I think on a previous show, I just don't know that they can overcome those injuries, the talent deficiency specifically. When you're talking about cornerback against this. Bengals team and what I saw last week against the 49ers, that's going to be tough for Buffalo. But who knows, we shall see. I actually think if the Bills win this game, it's going to be a Josh Allen puts on the Superman cape and just lights up there. And we're going, oh my gosh, how did he do that with a shoulder injury there? So we will see. I think inevitably, I think they can't win without a Josh Allen superhero performance. I do think they need a couple of those defensive stops.
Starting point is 00:18:16 And that's like what I'm interested in. Like, I think the narrative coming out will be pretty much no matter what. Quarterback who won this did so because he was a superhero. But for me, like, gauging who the bills really are, like where they slot, I'm watching their defense when the Bengals have the ball.
Starting point is 00:18:30 There you go. Is this one of your picks later? Or do you want to sit? Okay. Me neither. So which way are you leaning? Then if, let's just get it out of the way now.
Starting point is 00:18:39 I mean, when we get to Sunday night football, and I probably inevitably end up on a side of this, I'll end up, I think, on Cincinnati. Buffalo, because of the injuries,
Starting point is 00:18:48 I don't think it's, has my trust to that degree, right, where I can say, like, yeah, like, I buy it 100% that you guys can beat a team like the Bengals. Like I said, there are worlds in which that happens. And I think that that's an important thing, like, like, thing to watch for. I hope to not have too much down on this game. There's a couple of props that I'm, I'm looking at on it already, but I hope not to have too much that way you can just sit and enjoy it. Like, you have too much on it. Then you don't sit and enjoy it. Just every single play is a sweat. Ben, you are in control of what you have on this game. I hope not, like, you can
Starting point is 00:19:18 you are in control. We can say right now, we're just not going to, you know, sit back and enjoy this one. But Sunday night's tricky. I hear, yeah? You know,
Starting point is 00:19:28 depends on the day it goes. And as someone, listen, as someone who is in his own head, who's having his worst picks column year in like five years, and it couldn't even get the Titans. I feel good about the Titans.
Starting point is 00:19:38 And then if the Steelers, stealer in the fourth, I understand. Listen, it's a tough year. I, listen, I don't want to have a lot.
Starting point is 00:19:46 Like I said, if the number shows up green on the spreadsheet. We got a positive expected value bet. We take a positive expected value bet. That's just a we are we are slaves to the system and the system works. I picked the Bengals minus one and a half. But we'll see. It would not shock me at all if the bills came out and we're like no, no, no, we're still here. Everybody settled down. We're still among the Super Bowl contenders in the AFC. All right. Let's take a break. We'll come back. We'll talk about a Monday morning storyline. We've got our eye on and then we'll get to some
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Starting point is 00:21:09 $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt. See terms at sportsbook.fandle.com. All right, we are back on. Extra point. taken. All right. Monday morning storyline, Solek. What are people going to be
Starting point is 00:21:30 talking about Monday morning after this slate of games? Gino Agony goes to bed. Gino consternation, fake, freak out nonsense goes to bed. Are you aware of this that like there's a large portion? Not large. There's a decent portion of the Seahawks fan base.
Starting point is 00:21:48 That's like, time to see what Drew Locke's got. Is that true? A large portion of the Seahawks fan base? Give me data. I took Large down a decent. Large was too big. I saved that myself. I knew you'd have a problem with that. Okay.
Starting point is 00:22:02 No, I'm not aware of that. Yes. So there's been some like, oh, Gino's throwing too many picks, which picks are good and cool, by the way. I'm very pro picks. Throw interceptions. It means you're trying stuff. Yeah, there's Gino consternation, which I find very silly. He is, the Seahawks are one of like the top five offenses right now in success rate.
Starting point is 00:22:25 Gino's the top 10 quarterback by most metrics that we use. Watch Gino. He's playing great ball. He throws interceptions because he's uber aggressive, which you could absolutely take a little bit off the top and be fine. Like there's no two ways around that. But interceptions, they are bad. I don't want to be coming off as pro interception.
Starting point is 00:22:44 Interceptions are descriptive of play style in the same way that sacks are descriptive of play style. A quarterback takes a lot of sacks year over year because he holds on to the football a lot. Like it can be affected by the quality of his offensive line, but generally it's descriptive of his play style. How does he play? Interceptions are similar, right? Dak led the league interceptions last year and never lost their mind. But Dak's always been a very aggressive thrower. He checks tight windows.
Starting point is 00:23:08 He attacks them. Some years you get bad bounces in your interception numbers are high. It doesn't mean you're worse as a quarterback. It means that your tight window numbers weren't as good. Like that's probably just going to be noise. That's Gino, right? Gino is the same thing. He's in the pocket.
Starting point is 00:23:19 He's aggressive. He throws down the field. I'm not worried about that for Gino long term. And in this upcoming game against the Ravens, I actually think that's really good for Gino. I think that's really good for the Seahawks' offense's chance. This number is five and a half. It is not one of my three.
Starting point is 00:23:33 I do think that's too high. Even for being on the road, going up against a Baltimore team, Baltimore's got a couple of injuries that are meaningful. I do think that number's too big because this Ravens passing defense, which has been excellent. It's been so, so, so, so good.
Starting point is 00:23:46 It's very good at trapping quarterbacks. They do a lot of rotation stuff, and they change coverages, and Kyle Hamilton's lined up in a line of scrimmage. He's flying back to the deep middle, and Gino Stone leads leading interceptions because he's playing off the roof and he's stepping down. Like they are sending cats left and right, Ropon Smith. Like, they trick you into thinking you've got a match up somewhere and then you don't. They present space and then they take it away.
Starting point is 00:24:07 Well, the thing about Gino is that Gino is a legitimate post-knit processor. It's one of the few we have left, like unicorns or gnomes or other things that exist. He's like, he will actually sit in the pocket and read a sucker out. He doesn't just point and shoot. He will watch a safety and make a decision based off where that. safety goes. So he's going to hold on to the football a little bit longer. And he's going to be in there for sacks and the Ravens will get theirs. But he's actually the sort of guy who can get to a backside and expose the Ravens when they run their tricks. This is the sort of quarterback that is
Starting point is 00:24:34 good against this sort of a defense. So I think that win or lose, I expect to see a good Gino performance. I expect this to be a very close game. Wouldn't be surprised. It's actually a surprisingly high scoring game for how well these two defenses, both of them top 10 defenses rank on on numbers. Wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of points in this one. And I think that we'll walk away. saying, all right, Gino's clearly got it. And we don't need to be like fake worried about interceptions every single game and like all this aggressiveness stuff because the aggressiveness is so necessary to making Tyler Lock at work and DK Metcalf work and all this play action shot stuff work.
Starting point is 00:25:07 I think the running game is playing nice. I think you're going to see a great Seawks offensive performance. It needs to see a one score game late. Can't wait to watch this one. Yeah, their offense has worked. There's no doubt about it. I mean, like you said, they're top five in offensive success rate this season. You watch them.
Starting point is 00:25:22 And yes, there are times when you're like that Bengals game, I mean, they should have won that. You know, they're in first place in the NFC West. They easily could have another win there. Now, you could point to last week against Cleveland. They got up early and then they got shut down pretty handling. Now, that's a very good Browns defense. But they got shut down for most of that game. Then the Browns don't get, you know, have the interception there late.
Starting point is 00:25:44 And the Seahawks, to their credit, come back and score and put the game away. So I think the Seahawks offense is very good. talk about their defense too. You, you've been more bullish on their defense than I have. Like, they're very healthy and interesting. This might be the most interesting. They've been on defense since like the Legion of Boom days. I mean, this version of the Seahawks defense, they've got Jamal Adams back. They've got the corners in, in Wollen and Witherspoon, who's been great for them. They make the trade for Leonard Williams and ball cup a little bit up front, even though they lost Euchena, noosuf to injury. So you wonder if they're going to have
Starting point is 00:26:21 enough pass rush, but their defense is interesting. They're really like a well-balanced, well-coached team. This is a competitive game. The Ravens are like similar in some ways. I mean, they're top five or six, certainly an offensive success rate defensively. They've been very good all season long. They're very well-coached. I couldn't get a feel for this game. I think that Lions game from a couple weeks ago is kind of in my head. Now, I took the Seahawks plus five and a half, but I do think this Ravens team is capable of just blowing some of these teams out. If the don't make mistakes and shoot themselves in the foot. Like they just have everything.
Starting point is 00:26:55 They're going to have an edge in the kicking game. Like you said, they're going to get after you defensively. The point about Gino is a good. Gino is like one of the most cerebral quarterbacks in the NFL right now. Like he is hard to fool. He knows where to go with the ball.
Starting point is 00:27:11 Like you mentioned, he will process, he won't, like you said, most of his interceptions, and I haven't charted all of them, but I would agree with you. I think they are a case of being aggressive,
Starting point is 00:27:20 not a case of, oh, you know, the defense got me there. And I do think there's a pretty big difference in those two things. Yeah. Again, it's like the thing that always interests me is like interceptions are very bad. They're absolutely very bad. They're really bad. By expected points added, a sack is about one third as bad as an interception. Like a sack is about 33% of the lost EPA. Any sack, like first and 10, third and one doesn't matter to interception. Do you think like the average fan would say, let's see a sack and be like, oh, that's 33% of an interception right there?
Starting point is 00:27:49 I don't think they would. I think for them it's like 10%. You know what I'm saying? I think we over indexed to interceptions and under indexed to sacks just kind of naturally. When again, they're both descriptive of play style. Interception definitely worse, but also usually the quarterback who's throwing interceptions is achieving completed passes that the quarterback who just takes a sack doesn't even attempt. And I like that.
Starting point is 00:28:09 I like a guy who will do a thing, especially when I have a D.K. Maccalf and a Tyler Lockhand, a Jack Smith and Jigba and a Jake Bobo, right? Four star receivers. Shoot that sucker. let's play some football. It is, again, like, if the Ravens walk out and just, like, beat the brakes off Shane Waldron and Gino Smith and this really nice offensive operation, all come on the Monday show and be like, Ravens are winning the thing, man. Like, this defense is sick.
Starting point is 00:28:34 But this is the sort of passing attack, right? I said that is typically good against this sort of a defense. Huge litmus test for Mike McDonald. Huge litmus test for Gino as well, because you're supposed to be good against this. It's a critical game. Of all, like, we have so many good games, right? like Dolphins Chiefs, Bill Spangles,
Starting point is 00:28:51 Eagles, Cowboys. This is the only game of the weak shield in which both teams have offenses ranked top 10 success rate and defenses rank top 10 success rate.
Starting point is 00:29:00 Z-Ox are fourth on offense ninth on defense. Ravens are seventh on offense, third on defense. This is the marquee matchup of the day. If you had to pick one in terms of like elite matchup, it's technically this,
Starting point is 00:29:11 which is not true. But still, this game is a huge game. Do you use Bobo like I use Bobo? What's you mean? Okay, so I use Bobo, a longtime podcast listeners of mine will know. I used Bobo to be, so I was stuck at the store. I had to get, my daughter with sick had to get her, you know, like Tylenol.
Starting point is 00:29:29 And you're looking at the Tylenol, and then you're looking at the, not to, I'm not going to give any free advertising, but the store brand. Name brand. That's the Bobo. Is the Bobo or the time? So, you know, like you go to the grocery store, you got your Coke and you got your, like, you know, store brand cola. That's the Bobo.
Starting point is 00:29:47 Bobo is like the generic Not name brand Is that a someone I don't know I don't know I used it many years ago And I don't know if anybody I feel like others have used this
Starting point is 00:29:59 It's called Bobo This is very funny Because on the draft show This past year we did a show Called name brand off brand Where it's like all right Like in the first round Do you want Jalen Carter
Starting point is 00:30:09 In the second round You might be able to get Keanu Benton Right like name brand off brand Yeah And I don't know if we actually did Jake Bobo in that episode or not, but we did talk about Bobo in one episode pre-draft. I can't remember if it was that one or not. Would have been funny if it was. So now this spring, you're doing Jalen Carter or Bobo Jailen Carter.
Starting point is 00:30:27 Perfect. I mean, what's more fun? That's more fun than name brand off-brent. So there you go. And also make no sense to most listeners. Listen, no, I've never been worried about that. All right. My Monday morning storyline, I think there's going to be this, this, some takes flying out there. Is there a quarterback crisis in the NFL and what can be done about it. Oh, great, hey. Great. Here are some quarterbacks starting this week, potentially.
Starting point is 00:30:52 Brett Rippant. We don't know if Matthew Stafford's going to play. Tyson Bajit, Jaron Hall, Clayton, Tune, P.J. Walker, Aiden O'Connell. I was nice to the following quarterbacks and did not put them in that category. Zach Wilson, Daniel Jones, Gardner, Minshew, Taylor Heineke, Mack Jones, Baker, Mayfield, Jordan Love. We are in a strange spot right now. And we, as you mentioned, we're not even at the half.
Starting point is 00:31:15 halfway point of the season yet. We got a lot of football to go and listen to those quarterbacks. I just mentioned there now. Some of this is injury related. Some of it is not injury related. But I feel like there are going to be people coming out firing on Monday about the state of the quality of play in the NFL, the state of the NFL. Did you see some of those quarterbacks who were on the field on Sunday? Did you see some of those games? This isn't good for the league. What's going on? what can be done about it. And so it will go. I don't think we will spend a lot of time
Starting point is 00:31:47 because I don't mind having a game where I can just kind of like check in and be like, all right, I can kind of ignore that game. I'll catch up on it later in the week, but these two teams are irrelevant. And we're reaching that point of the season
Starting point is 00:31:58 where there are some of these games where we're like, you know, maybe I'll get to it, but I don't need to be. I'm not going to be spending a lot of time on that game. But I do think there's going to be a lot of talk about the quarterbacks
Starting point is 00:32:07 who play this weekend and the state of quarterback play in the NFL on Monday morning. I don't even know if you want to respond, you can. Yeah, I don't know. That's generally an excellent take. I like that a lot. Because I also, I see those storm clouds gathering on the horizon.
Starting point is 00:32:20 I'm very excited for it. Listen, this is the cost. You thought you were having a great time with your rookie contract quarterbacks? Like, oh, what a competitive window. Like, all the super teams that have been built around Mahomes and Allen in their heyday and Joe Burrough now and Brock Purdy. Like the Niners are signing everybody under the sun, dude. Chase Young is a 49er.
Starting point is 00:32:39 They have all this money. Why? Because Brock Purdy hit as a UDF. If you find a rookie contract quarterback, you are caught among men. Like you have all the ability in the world. This is the cost. Teams are not going to roster Jacoby, Bresset, and Tano Heineke, when they can roster Clayton Tune and Dorian Thompson, Aidan O'Connell, like this, you'll like what you got
Starting point is 00:32:59 at the top, this is the bottom. This is the kicker. These are the consequences of the action. And so you have to, this is why like a middle class of quarterback and backup quarterback contracts are so important. It's because you need, you want to have to. have more consistent quarterback play at QB2 than this. But teams are trying to find that gold mine and trying to find that gold mine,
Starting point is 00:33:18 Clayton tune, Clayton happens. And Clayton tune is not going to be a pleasant experience. More on that later. There you go. All right. Let's get to the contest. Benny Souls, do you have the spreadsheet on your computer? I do. Yes.
Starting point is 00:33:33 Give us the update. Week seven, donuts. All right. Eggs, zero, zero. It was tough. We promised we would come back. Why are we talking about that? We're not talking about week seven.
Starting point is 00:33:43 We promise if you would recover. One of us did. The other one also kind of participated. Five point week for me, Sheel, two point week for you. I have a three point lead on you now. You had the under on passing yards for Russell Wilson, which you took in an expectation that the chiefs would control that game handily.
Starting point is 00:34:01 You still got home. Well done. I did not. I took that in the expectation that Russell Wilson doesn't, they will not let him throw the beat through for 93 yards against them the first time. That's all. Don't we change it. my justifications. I got the prop right. You also took Chees minus seven and a half, so I just assumed.
Starting point is 00:34:18 Okay, move on. Yep. And you also won Bengals on the road plus four and a half. I think expecting Sam Donald to play in that game, got Brock still worked out well. For me, over three one and a half receiving yards in Logan Thomas won. Dolphins at home minus nine and a half against the Patriots one. And then long shot of the week, Chargers swim by at least two scores against the bears. Really felt like a backdoor cover was coming that entire way. It was absolutely terrified, but the charge given that one up. But three points on the, on the alt spread there, fading Tyson, Bayesian, you will notice that fading very inexperienced, very low drafted rookie quarterbacks will be a continuing
Starting point is 00:34:53 theme of our episode today. The official score is now 25 to 22 on the season. Our goal is to be against the spread over 56%. I'm at 54%. You are at 46%. Mr. Capadia. And we are all together at 49%. So we've been below on average.
Starting point is 00:35:11 the last two weeks. We were above for most of the beginning of the season. Right now we've been below the last two weeks, but we will pick that back up so long as Schill starts carrying his weight. Okay, listen, the way Solex spun that, you would think he has like a 50-point lead. He's up by three points through eight weeks, and those three points were all because he hit one long shot last week.
Starting point is 00:35:29 So let's settle down. Some of the other- You and I both only hit one lock last week. I just had a long shot, yeah. So-Lac on props is at 38%. I'm at 63%. Solek on long shots, 38%. I'm at 25%.
Starting point is 00:35:45 And Solac on locks is 54%. I'm 46% according to this spreadsheet. So there you go. You gotta hit the long shot is ever. I said it. It's all about the money ball. We will get to that. But let's start with the props of the week.
Starting point is 00:35:59 I'll tell you right now, I've got one, two, three, four. I've got four here that I don't know which one I'm going to choose. I am so in my own head this week. This week's good. I'll tell you, this is going to be a desire. I would fade me. this week. I'm going to be a disaster. Fade me and everything I do. So last. A classic Sheal move. Like Luke, record it in the spreadsheet. Sheill predicts the entire week
Starting point is 00:36:20 is his worst week of the season. Six points in coming. No question. I think I could get a zero this week. All right. Go ahead. Start us with your prop. Prop of the week. Travis Kelsey under 7 to 8 and a half receiving yards. The Taylor Swift's made for Sheel Capati. Yes, a classic. This hit for shield earlier in the year. I'm back to the well. Travis Kelsey against a Vic Fangio defense. We have six games of data when Vic Fangio was the head coach and defensive coordinator in Denver. He was under this number in four of six games on the season. He's only been over this number twice in seven games. Kelsey's at his lowest A dot of his career. And there was a wonderful piece written in the athletic this week about Kelsey and kind of how he's succeeding as tight end one. And he, and he,
Starting point is 00:37:05 was very honest and basically made the point of like, hey, I don't really move like I used to, right? A lot of this is now mind game stuff. A lot of this is now option route and sitting down in zones underneath. He's at one of the highest target shares of his career. He gets a lot of volume in this offense where they don't really have a lot of wide receivers that are emerging. But he doesn't really get it down the field. He doesn't necessarily run after the catch.
Starting point is 00:37:25 Jalen Ramsey back for the Miami Dolphins. Javon Holland, back for the Miami Dolphins. These are the players that will be available to line up against Travis Kelsey. very valuable players. Ramsey historically been quite good against Kelsey. You can only be so good, but historically has been quite good against Kelsey. Holland and excellent cover man, they have the bodies in place. When you go and you look at how Mahomes is typically feared against this Vic Fangio defense, there's been less underneath throwing. He's actually had success being a little bit more aggressive and throwing the ball down the field. That's just not Kelsey's role, given his current
Starting point is 00:37:57 athletic ability in this offense. I think you'll see a decently high volume game for Kelsey against the dolphins in Germany, but I don't think you're going to see enough. downfield passes for him to get to this number. If we enter shootout mode, I'm worried. But I also think you'll see Andy Reid and the Chiefs deploy not a similar game plan to the Eagles, but see the wisdom in what the Eagles did and really trying to limit the number of drives that the dolphins get. And so again, that could be short passes and high volume.
Starting point is 00:38:21 Maybe Kelsey gets there on like 11 catches. But if I lose 78 and a half yards on that high of a volume, I lose it. Like, you know, that's something you have to live with. I think you're going to see them run the football. I think you're to see them trying to sit on the ball. Not that many explosives. I don't think Kelsey can get above this number. I'm taking under 78 and a half.
Starting point is 00:38:36 How do you feel about having some, having juice on something so early in the day? Like, I'll get to my long shot, but I had a long shot in that game that I kind of liked, but I'm like, Sheila, you're going to lose that. It's going to be one o'clock Eastern time and you're already going to be miserable.
Starting point is 00:38:51 Just from like a life standpoint, you know, my relationship with my family. Like I didn't want to be, you know, I didn't want that to happen. So yeah, we're getting deep here. You know, I don't want to be. So I was like, I'm not doing the long shot. Firstly, when you,
Starting point is 00:39:04 When you have as many bets down as I will have, you ride the highs. You got to ride the highs and lows, right? You're always going to have a couple losses that are undignified and unfair, unreasonable. Never forget that Juan Jannings ran 33 routes against the Bengals and caught no passes, cardio king. But I'll be in church. I won't see the vast majority of this game, Dolphins Chiefs. And so I will get out of church around like 1130.
Starting point is 00:39:29 I'll open the phone. It'll be like halfway through the fourth probably. and I'll toggle on over, see what Kelsey's receiving line is. And if it's 130, I'll go, all right, I deserve to lose. And if it's 35, I'll go, all right, I deserve to win. And I won't have any other data besides that. And it'll just be, that'll be a data point in my day. And then we go get bagels, get home, get ready for the 1 o'clock late.
Starting point is 00:39:49 There you go. All right. So I said, I'm debating between a few here. I think I'm debating between two. I'm debating between Sam Howell under 248.5 passing yards against the New England Patriots. or do I go back to the well and go at him, feeling over 66 and a half receiving yards, Panthers take on the Colts.
Starting point is 00:40:11 So here's the reasoning between the two here. Sam Howell, if he played the Eagles every week, he would be a Hall of Famer, he would be an All-Pro, and the commanders would probably be Super Bowl favorites right now. That does not happen. He has not looked as good in those other games. You have inexperienced quarterback going to Foxborough against a Belichick coach defense.
Starting point is 00:40:30 That's generally a spot. I would like for New England. Adam Thielen, the guy continues to just be a target monster for the Carolina Panthers. They're going up against a Colts defense that allowed over 500 yards to the New Orleans Saints last week. Now, a lot of that was Rashid Shaheed and bombs downfield. So I understand the Panthers and Thielen, they're not that type of offense. But over 66.5.
Starting point is 00:40:53 I think he's had this like five or six games in a row here. They just throw the ball to him so often. So, what do you think, Ben? Do you like either of those? Are you going to sway me? Are you going to do a little game theory and tell me one you like that you don't actually like so that I pick it? And then you open up a bigger lead.
Starting point is 00:41:10 What's your mindset on those stuff? I took the Adam Thielen line yesterday. I've been on Adam Thielen over this week. I have a, my long shot is in this game. I'll talk about it when I get there. I expect the Panthers to be in a negative game script for most of the game. I expect them to be behind most of the game. I also think that they know that this is where you're going.
Starting point is 00:41:29 can get after the Colts. They're running game situation, like even with the change from Miles Sanders to Chuba Hubbard, not necessarily a unit that's got a lot of teeth to it. I think they not only know they have to throw the football against this Colts team, the Colts corner situation is really bleak right now, but they also are going to know they have to throw it quick. So you have feeling on the receiving yards over. I have his receptions over.
Starting point is 00:41:51 I think that you're in a season. See, I could, that didn't fit out where that wasn't minus 130 or better on Fanduel as of this. So I wanted to take the reception. over the yards, but I couldn't do that for the rules of the bet. I think it's still be good on the yards. I like receptions a little bit better for the game that I project, but feeling it's such a high volume guy at this point that barring like in-game injury, he's going to get enough
Starting point is 00:42:13 expected targets that you expect him to be around this number. And like I said, because of negative games, because of the Colts outside corner situation, I like the bet. So I'm there. The Howell Under is tricky to me. This guy gets to drop back so much and throws to such talented receivers that like he's a hard fade for me. I do think the Patriots are going to be successful sacking him.
Starting point is 00:42:32 But then I also think you're going to get second and 18 and that's a dropback. And then you start to worry about that passing under. I prefer Thelan. Oh, baby, I'm looking at these. I got to decide right now. Jill, you're like 63% of your own props. You're fine. This is the one you're okay on.
Starting point is 00:42:48 If I go with Thielen and it loses, I can blame Solac. If I go with Hal and it loses, Solac can say, I told you you should have gone with Thielen. So based on that, all right, Adam Thielen, over 66 and a half receiving yards. There we go. All right. Next up, actually, let's take a break. Then we'll get to the long shot.
Starting point is 00:43:08 Then we'll get to the money ball when we come back. All right, we are back on extra point taking. I'll be honest. Again, I have no confidence. I don't like my picks this week. My long shot, I kind of like my long shot. I will be honest there. I think I got a good long shot this week.
Starting point is 00:43:39 You start us off. and then I'll get to mine. This is worth three points, of course, for those just new listeners, the prop of the week and the locks of the week are each worth one. You have available four points there. And then a long shot of the week has to be plus 150 or higher. That's worth three points. You can get a total of seven points in any given week.
Starting point is 00:43:57 Yeah. All right. Are you ready to not judge me? Oh, baby. What are we got? I'm excited. All right. So the way Fandle does parley's is good, right?
Starting point is 00:44:08 Parlay calculations are pretty straight. When they do same game parlays, the calculations change a little bit, right? If you use a parlay calculator and you just put in the odds for all of your parlays for each leg of your parlay, you're not going to get the same numbers Fandle gives you on a same game parlay,
Starting point is 00:44:22 because same game parley stuff is correlated, right? If you take Patrick Mahomes over passing yards, Travis Kelsey over receiving yards, is implied more likely by your bets. Those are correlated bets, right? Accordingly, if you take negatively correlated bets, two things that shouldn't happen at the same time,
Starting point is 00:44:38 The odds get jacked up a little bit more because the logic on Fandle, the calculator, the computer is saying, this guy's taking two things that don't overlap very often. We're going to give him favorable juice accordingly. Zach Moss to rush for at least 40 yards. And Jonathan Taylor rushed for at least 50 yards. So both Colts backs, Zach Taylor 40 plus, Jonathan Taylor 50 plus, on a regular parlay would be plus 134. On a same game parley because it's negative, we correlate as plus 154, and that's my long shot of the week. since Jonathan Taylor came back,
Starting point is 00:45:10 the carries split between the two has been pretty even. Three weeks ago against the Jaguars, you had seven carriers for Jonathan Taylor, eight for Zach Moss in what was largely negative game script the whole way. I don't think you're going to see
Starting point is 00:45:19 that against the Panthers. The following week, they were playing the Browns, 18 carries for Jonathan Taylor, 18 for Zach Moss, and then this past week against the Saints, 12 carriers for Jonathan Taylor,
Starting point is 00:45:28 11 for Zach Moss. They spoke a little bit, Taylor, Moss, and Stikin about the tandem this week, and everybody's very pro-tantam. Everybody's like, this is working. Like, we feel good.
Starting point is 00:45:37 It's keeping our Taylor carries low. We like that. Zach Moss got asked a great question. He was like, what's the difference between you guys? Like, how do you guys get used? And Zach goes, well, he's way faster than me. Like he just says it.
Starting point is 00:45:47 Like a classic veteran line. Like he's done with the whole like rookie nonsense. I'm getting better. It's like, well, Taylor's way faster than I am. Let's start there. So they have a little bit of a thunder and lightning thing going. But the volume is there for both of them to be able to achieve this number so long as they're averaging a solid yards per carry.
Starting point is 00:46:04 The worst rush defense in the league by success rate is the Carolina Panthers, remarkably, right? The Panthers are at 51% defensive success rate against the run. The Cardinals are at 54%. The Bucks are at 57%. The Panthers at 32 are 6 percentage points worse than 30. They are really, really, really bad against the run. And Shane Steichen is an extremely creative run designer.
Starting point is 00:46:26 He's created explosives for Zach Moss. He's created untouched runs for Zach Moss. He has the ability to give these guys very favorable looks, even against this Panthers defense, like five down fronts. like enough body's in the box. This is not a good run defense. And I expect the Colts have a lot of success. Live in a positive game script to be able to whittle this away.
Starting point is 00:46:44 So I like Zach Moss to have over 40 yards and Jonathan Taylor have over 50 yards in the same gate, plus 154. Taylor over 50, Zach Moss over 40. All right. There you go. A little parlay education for the people. Well, negatively correlated, baby.
Starting point is 00:47:00 Mine is much simpler for the people. Dalton Kincaid 50 plus receiving yards in the Bengals Bill's game. Dalton Kincaid has come on strong the last two weeks, Josh Allen, when targeting Dalton Kincaid is 13 for 15 for 140 yards. Now at first I thought, well, the Bengals have very good linebackers.
Starting point is 00:47:21 Are I am I sure I want to do this? But I looked at some numbers. They have given up the sixth most receiving yards to tight ends this season in terms of DVOA against tight ends. They are 29th. I think that Benck is. Engels offense under Captain Liu has been a little bit more opportunistic than a shutdown defense. They are actually very low in defensive success rate in yards allowed, all those things.
Starting point is 00:47:44 So they've made place when they had to. We know they can come up with wrinkles in game-specific stuff to kind of slow down the opponent. But overall, they have been far from a shutdown defense. So Josh Allen, you figure he's dealing with the shoulder injury. Maybe they've got to be a little bit more methodical, get the ball out a little bit quicker. that's where a tight end. Like Dalton, King,
Starting point is 00:48:03 by the way, not just the numbers. I feel like he's looked fantastic specifically last week. He made some very nice catches in that Thursday night game. So the last couple of games or any indication,
Starting point is 00:48:14 Dawson knocks out. Kincaid's a bigger part of the offense. He's going to get those targets. Like I said, 15 targets over the last two games. And that's my pick. Now, I thought about making him my prop.
Starting point is 00:48:27 I think it's like 36 or something. It's 36 enough right now. It's just go for it. 33 and a half and guess what, Sheel, I'm on that too. You're on that. This is what happens to me every week. Yeah. I look at the props and then I go, wait, I really like this one.
Starting point is 00:48:42 Maybe I should just make it my long shot. Probably not the best way to do it, but you know what? That's my process. I had another one, which I'll get too later. Listen, I passed on chargers minus eight and a half against the bears to take them long shock. So I was like, I don't want to double dip. Like, that feels scurrilous.
Starting point is 00:48:55 I just need to start believing in the takes, man. I need to stop feeling I got a Denver spent portfolio. So I thought about one for the Germany game, but then it was just like I said. I'm like, I don't want to have already lost my long shot by the time I'm eating lunch on Sunday. So I didn't do that. I'll get to that one. A little bit later here because it might be one of my locks of the week. All right, nonsense prediction.
Starting point is 00:49:19 Benny Souls. What are you got? Are you locking a Germany game? Haven't we talked about the, we have talked about abroad games? As you would say, that's living right there. We're living, man. Here we go. All right.
Starting point is 00:49:31 My anything but the game prediction is that we're going to get some sort of German, like, there's going to be an event at the Germany game. Like there obviously is going to be. I have like a few potential options. Thinking like one, we might get some sort of like fan streaker event. I feel like this is a prime for like someone jumps on the field. Maybe it's like there's a protest for some sort of a political world interest. Maybe there's a just like a massive Bundesliga fan that's like, you know, go.
Starting point is 00:49:59 insert Bundes League team here that I definitely know. So we get one of those. I think this could be a great game, Dolphins Chiefs. I think it's going to be a barn burner. We might get some sort of play, right? Like the Frankfurt freak out. Like, I don't know. It's like the Deutsche Bank Stadium.
Starting point is 00:50:16 I was trying to come up with like a Deutsche Bank name. You know, it's like, you know, just like the double Deutsch instead of the double doink or something like. I like that. I like this is the first game the league is playing in Germany. And like I've had some friends be like, why Germany? And I realized that like because they don't like live in the world we live and they might not know this, but like Germans love NFL.
Starting point is 00:50:40 Like I don't know about you. Like we love the international listeners here. We have such a good time with them. I feel like the number one place I get like the international fan interest is Brazil. But a close second is Germany. I feel like the German fans go wild, dude. Like I think in terms like European countries, I feel like like comfortably, the fans that I hear from the most are our German fans. So I think this is going to be
Starting point is 00:51:03 uproarious fun. Like I expect a really, really, really good turnout fan-wise. And accordingly, I feel the universe converging to give us a good event. Like, I think, I think we won't remember this as the Germany game. We'll remember this is like the, oh, the, right, I like double Deutsch. I think that's good. I like double. I like double-doy. That's fun to say. Some sort of double-doin-doyge game. I think we're going to get something that that typifies and that codifies this game here as an important one in league history and in season history. So I'm very much looking forward to the silliness around this Germany game. Maybe a double pass that we call it a double deutch game winner or something? I don't know. Yeah, because is a double doink would that be a double
Starting point is 00:51:42 Deutsch? I don't know, maybe. I could be. I just feel like you got a shoehorn Deutsch in there somewhere. I worked a lot on. Yeah, that's fun to say. I worked a lot on Frankfurt puns. And by a lot, I mean like five minutes. And I could have come with anything good. But hopefully it'll naturally appear. There's no one on the teams named Frank. Frank Clark's gone. The O.C. for the dolphins is Frank Smith, but no one's going to name anything after him. Yeah, I think that that's probably unlikely that there's something Frank Smith. Listeners, Friday, hit up Ben, at me on Twitter with a good, expected German-related pun
Starting point is 00:52:16 for a potential event in this game. Please and thank you. I would also like to get a little data. I wonder the international listeners to extra point taken, like what the, what the ranking is other than anecdotally. I mean, I feel like you're short-changing the UK there a little bit. I mean, I feel like every other email is from the UK. So don't worry, UK.
Starting point is 00:52:34 I am here for you. I'll stand up for you. But yeah, I don't know. You say Brazil and then Germany. I say UK. Who knows? There could be other ones as well. All right.
Starting point is 00:52:44 My nonsense prediction. There will be a wild Raiders celebration IG live video. Yes. Where they're just killing Joshua. Some players just maybe it's a bunch of them, maybe it's one of them, maybe they're free stuff. I don't know what they're going to be doing, but it is not going to be favorable to Josh McDaniels. The Raiders, despite firing their head coach, their GM, their OC, and starting a rookie quarterback then are one and a half point favorites against the New York Giants. And I'm already regretting taking the Giants in my column.
Starting point is 00:53:20 If I could have one back, I would want to take the Raiders because on Thursday, the report, reporters who covered the Raiders were in the locker room. Vic Tafer, who's covered the Raiders for a very long time, tweeted out that it was the happiest locker room ever. I saw a video of Devante Adams playing Nerf basketball. He looked like a weight had been lifted off of his shoulders. Hunter Renfro said, quote, we're not walking on eggshells everywhere.
Starting point is 00:53:47 I do believe in the sort of new coach bump when the coach you got rid of is somebody who it seems like the players did not enjoy. playing for. So I did a bad job here in my column, taking the Giants plus one and a half. I think the Raiders obviously have a good shot to win this game with Antonio Pierce. And I do think if they win this game, they're going to have quite the celebration in the locker room. And someone's going to be on IG Live posting a video that everyone is talking about Sunday night or Monday morning. So there you go. Yeah, the, who do you think is happier that Josh McDaniels is fired? you're the Raiders locker room.
Starting point is 00:54:25 I think it's close. I think it's tight. It's not me. Josh McDaniels was very good for content for me over the years. You know, so I don't want, I like when the Joe judges and the Josh McDaniels and the Matt Patricias are in my life. I mean, it's so easy on Monday. Extra point taken.
Starting point is 00:54:41 All right. Oh, I need to rip this guy. I need to rip this guy. I need to rip this guy. Oh, this guy's a fraud. Oh, this guy had this wild PR campaign that he was a changed man and he can relate to players now. And oh, Bill Belichick agreed to give him all the secrets. No, no, no.
Starting point is 00:54:57 Now, you saw what happened. It was predictable. Sorry. If there are any listeners left who are, I have not yet convinced that Shields is a secret bully, that right there. Just, I like when there's easy, fresh meat. That's not a bully? Yes. These are men in power.
Starting point is 00:55:14 I'm bringing them down, baby. Revolution. Yeah. No, I'm not going after the week. These are, these are arrogant, arrogant men making. millions of dollars who got jobs that they shouldn't have gotten and they're not good at them. And my job is to make fun of them. That, I don't have, that's not bullying. You could have been talking about Josh McDaniels right there. You also could have been talking about Arthur Smith right
Starting point is 00:55:35 there. That's a pretty apt Arthur Smith description for today's stage. Well, well, listen, Arthur Smith had himself a week. We don't need to get into that. Now, unless he's one of your, unless he's one of your locks of the week, your boy, Arthur Smith. People did enjoy that. Your boy, Arthur Smith. All right. Locks of the week. What do you got? Not a bully? I resent that. All right. Like I said, great week for fading the new young starters. My first lock of the week is Brown's minus eight and a half against the Cardinals.
Starting point is 00:56:05 Shield, did you watch any Clayton Toon coming up? You're watching Houston. Any Houston Cougars film? You get it on. I did not. No. Clayton Tune against the Jim Schwartz defense is malpractice. This is not fair to the young man. This is, this is thoroughly unacceptable behavior. You and I asked on the Monday show, we were like, this, Clayton, too, like the Josh Dobbs thing, what a surprise, this is crazy. Well, it turns out that they went and sent Josh Dobbs to the Vikings and Dobbs is potentially going to play for them at some point down the road.
Starting point is 00:56:33 Not this week. More than that in a second. But Clayton Toon is going to start for the Cardinals. Dobbs has been doing actually a pretty nice job for that offense. I think they'll still do creative stuff and they're still going to run tune. But this is just such a difficult defense to go up against for your first start, even if, like, all right, you kind of know what they're doing. Like, they're not going to, like, fool you or confuse you. the rush is so intense and the coverage is so tight.
Starting point is 00:56:54 I think the Cardinals are just going to really, really, really struggle to move the football. And then as we've talked about, this is like a bottom five defensive unit. PJ Walker potentially starting in this game set up to Sean Watson, who can't, oh, still can't throw. Shucks, so tough. I don't know. I don't care. Brown's minus eight and a half.
Starting point is 00:57:11 Ben, that is my fate. That is so telling and I don't disagree with you. But how telling is it that we are recording this on Friday morning? we do not know as of this recording who is starting at quarterback for the Cleveland Browns whether it's Deshaun Watson or PJ Walker
Starting point is 00:57:28 they're favored by eight and a half points and you don't care because you're like it doesn't yeah it doesn't I mean the Watson thing he practiced he said he doesn't know if he's going to start we don't know if you now do you have a preference do you feel like
Starting point is 00:57:41 if I could tell you right now like would you be more confident if Deshawn Watson started or are you like I'll just roll with with PJ Walker. Is that a crazy question? I don't know.
Starting point is 00:57:53 The last time I saw Deshaun play, he wasn't functional. He almost gave the game. Exactly. I want PJs. Until Deshawn's actually, like, healthy. Now, again, like, I like, you know, I waved at the Deshaun injury. Like, oh, who knows? Can't throw.
Starting point is 00:58:04 If he legitimately can't throw, then you legitimately can't throw. He should have been put on the IR because that was four weeks ago. And you could have not had the guy, like, practicing and trying and going into a game and getting hit. I don't understand how this injury has been managed at all. but if he's still not able to drive the football then I'd rather have PJ this is the Cardinals.
Starting point is 00:58:24 Run the football throw a screen. Score seven points. Like, we're good. Like, you don't need, we don't need to reinvent the wheel here. I did tweet during the trade deadline. I was like, I wonder what the Brown's record would be
Starting point is 00:58:34 if they still had Josh Dobbs. And Browns fans were pissed about that, which I get it. I was mostly just stirring up trouble. But in general, you don't necessarily need to have elite quarterback play right now in the way this offense works. Running game is still working.
Starting point is 00:58:48 defense is still working. Just beat up on the rookie quarterback, get your short field, score your defensive touchdowns, win this thing by eight and a half. I like it. I picked the Browns in my column. Let's see, we have the tab on here
Starting point is 00:59:01 that is when Solac picks a, has a lock of the week from Shields Weekly Picks column. 62 and a half percent. That's one of our highest percentages here, Ben. I should be reading your column. Beforehand, I don't, I don't want to read it beforehand. Because I don't,
Starting point is 00:59:17 I'm like you. I don't try to prepare for your arguments. I just try to like come in with my opinions. I know you, you do a lot prep in the background. I feel like there's a lot of jabs here. Solix going to get off this. I don't know what text threat he's on. His wife's like, stop complaining about Sheel. I don't care. You do a podcast for a living. Relax. I don't go get it. Listen, it's week nine. It was bound to happen. It's a lot of time together. When we select the same locks of the week, it's only happened three times. We're 67%. You shouldn't. read my column, but you should make your picks, and then I should point out if I have the same side in my column, because then it's 62 and a half percent. So yes, I like that side as well.
Starting point is 00:59:56 All right, listen, you told me not to go international. Sometimes a man can't help himself. The temptation is just too great with the Kansas City Chiefs minus one and a half against the Miami Dolphins. Give me the Chiefs in this spot. I like them. Listen, Dolphin six wins have come against the Chargers, the Patriots twice, the Broncos, the Giants, and the Panthers. Those teams are combined 13 and 33 on the season. They've had two games against the big boys, the bills, lost by 28 to the bills, lost by two touchdowns to the Eagles. I still think the dolphins are very good.
Starting point is 01:00:31 This is not a, hey, dolphins are frauds. They haven't beaten anybody argument. This is a when the dolphins have kind of gotten to that next level of opponent. They haven't performed as well. The Chiefs coming off a loss, are the Chiefs really going to lose back? to back games with Patrick Mahomes, probably, and I'll probably be angry about it at about 1230 Eastern time on Sunday. But typically in this spot, Patrick Mahomes has been very good, per the action network.
Starting point is 01:00:56 When Mahomes is favored by less than three or an underdog, he is 19, 6, and 1 against the spread. So there you go. This is a one and a half point line. I made the argument earlier this week that I do have concerns about the Chiefs' offense, but I was also very clear that the Chief's offense is very good. Chiefs' offenses just nowhere near as good as previous Chiefs' offenses have been. So I am a little worried here.
Starting point is 01:01:20 The Dolphins overall defensive metrics are not good. If you watch the Dolphins the last two weeks, that to me looks like a team, a unit on the rise. I actually think they're figuring some things out defensively. They're getting healthier on that side of the ball. So I'm not saying it's going to be a blowout. I did consider Ben, for my long shot of the week, Chiefs adjusted, I think it was minus four and a half or minus five and a half. Could they win by six points and get me to that plus 150?
Starting point is 01:01:47 But like I said, I didn't want to lose my long shot before I've even had lunch. So I decided not to do that. But I do like the Chiefs quite a bit in this spot. I think they can create some turnovers on defense. I think they can be efficient on offense. And I generally like Mahomes in a spot like this. So there you go. I've got the Chiefs.
Starting point is 01:02:04 All right. What's next for you? The look of disappointment on your face. Well, we haven't really talked about this Chiefs Dolphins game. This is the one of the market game we haven't gotten to. Okay. Let's get to it. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:02:12 I brought a huge shot McDermott test against the Bengals. Incredible, incredible, incredible to a Mike McDaniel versus Steve Spagnolo opportunity right here. This shot is critical. The two of Mike McDaniel offense, we do what we want, independent of what you do offense. Like, oh, your schemes, your system. Like, we just run the same place. We throw to space. Like, we have our stuff and it works.
Starting point is 01:02:33 The Steve Spagnolo defense is a, hey, I don't care what you do. This is what I do, right? I'm a dictate defense, right? I blitz. I come after you. I've changed my coverages. This is a very unique, not very unique. This is a unique defense in the league.
Starting point is 01:02:49 There are, like, a lot of the guys who tried to run it this way, like don't, like, like Bowles. Like, like, Bulls doesn't even really do the same stuff that he used to do. Spags is still doing it. This matchup is really important. Like, I can see the Dolph is having a game like that against the Eagles. The score, like, you know, just like, they cannot get the offense working. I can see them having a game like that against the Broncos where like everything works.
Starting point is 01:03:09 Because this is like chaos again chaos. There's a lot of jagged edge. just bumping into each other here. Something's got to give. I'm staying away from this spread because of Germany. I'm staying away from the spread because I don't know how this offense matches up because of this defense.
Starting point is 01:03:21 Shield! We haven't seen teams play in Germany. We don't know what's going to go on. That's why you got the edge. There's no data. You can game the system. That's the opposite of an edge. That's not how...
Starting point is 01:03:36 I would love to feel like I knew something about that to feel good about it. I personally lean dolphins. in this matchup on a neutral field. But for me, like, the Germany, I'm not going to touch it. But when the dolphins have the ball, if the chief's defense can answer and can control what the dolphins do, then the entire back half of the season for the dolphins is saying, okay, we need to figure out how to have better answers
Starting point is 01:04:01 against the playoff defenses we expect to see. And if the chief's defense, which has been so good this season, struggles against the dolphins' offense, it's massive. Because they've been so good at punching above their weight with their personnel, that they run into like a Tyreek Hill, which Tyreekill revenge game, man. Tyreeks going for 300 yards. They run a Tyreeks Hill and they can't stop him. They have to come up with answers because they don't have like a corner one
Starting point is 01:04:22 just sit and hide in somewhere. Like Legerius Sneed, Trent McDuffie. These guys play in the slot. Like they don't have like a matchup with Tyree Kill play one-on-one. I'm very interested to see that side of the ball. Yeah, I think the panic will be greater for the Chiefs if they lose this game. I think if the Chiefs lose this game and their offense specifically doesn't look good. then I think the panic levels are higher
Starting point is 01:04:44 for the dog like if the dolphin now if the dolphins get blown out then I'm with you then they'll be oh my god the dolphins are frauds they beat up on bed if the dolphins lose by you know a touchdown or less and I think it can be like all right it happens it's I think the dolphins do know that they need a they need a win against a playoff team and I think this is a good opportunity for them to do it
Starting point is 01:05:02 I think they do match up nicely like I said I think this is going to be an absolutely enormous Tyree Kill game I was initially looking for Tyree Kill long shot stuff plus 110 yards was going to be the thing necessarily get to long shot. And I was like, I don't know if I can. Plus 110 is a lot. I don't know if I feel good about that.
Starting point is 01:05:21 Last time I did this, it did not work. But I think it's going to be a big target of hill game. I looked at AJ Brown 100 yards is also fits our long shot. He's averaging 133 in the last five games. Should I just take this? Yeah, it seems a little easy. What's going on here? All right.
Starting point is 01:05:37 What's your next lock of the week? What do you got? All right. I was going to take. whatever team was facing the Vikings, independent of what team it was, because Jared Hall is a rookie in his first start, and the Vikings have a horrible run offense,
Starting point is 01:05:55 so they're not going to be able to stay ahead of the sticks. Justin Jefferson is hurt, and so he's going to have to be trying to make these tight window down for those. Look at how well Kirk's played. Look at the degree of difficulty on Kirk's throws. Kirk's throwing, like, timing routes into tiny windows to Brandon Powell to move the football. Kirk has been playing football on hard mode. And now the Vikings who just traded for Josh Dobbs are not yet going to play Dobbs.
Starting point is 01:06:17 They're going to play rookie Jaron Hall, who is their backup. It just so happens that the Vikings are playing a top 10 defense by success rate, the Atlanta Falcons, who I've made a quarterback change this week from Desperator to Taylor Heineke. Now, when you and I talked about the Falcons preseason, when we talked about them recently, one of the things that you would always bring up is Taylor Heineke is a very highly paid backup and is a very competent backup. And I have always agreed that Heinecke is one of the more confident backups in the league. We've seen Heineke in the situation multiple times in his career at Washington, where midseason he's tossed in there, you know, and an offense wasn't necessarily built for him or whatever.
Starting point is 01:06:52 And he's been successful. He's got Moxie. He's tough. He can escape from the pocket. He can create it on the run. This is a wonderfully functional quarterback. We have evidence. We know that for sure.
Starting point is 01:07:02 We didn't know what Ritter was going to be. We know that Hineke is a functional quarterback. And because of Ritter's fumbling problems, Hineke is probably better, it's going to be. better for the offense right now, at least in theory, because we saw the second half of the offense, than Ritter was, because he's going to actually finish these freaking drives instead of ending with zero points and making Ben look bad. So accordingly, we were always going to be fading the Vikings. And then we just happen to end up also being on the Falcon's side, like the fourth week in a row. That's more coincidence. Falcons minus three and a half. This opened at four
Starting point is 01:07:30 and a half. It got up to five and a half. And then it's bopped down to three and a half with the Drake London News. London unlikely to play in this game. I'm not terribly worried about that. I think can be a heavy dose of running the football for the Falcons. Vikings, one of the worst run defenses in league this season.
Starting point is 01:07:44 So I'm not too worried about the London injury. Obviously it sucks, but down to three and a half, I will still take it. Give me the Falcons against the spread. Oh, this is the most exciting thing
Starting point is 01:07:53 that's happened to me all week, the possibility that Jaron Hall could go into Atlanta and beat this fraud. Listen. Falcons team. By the way,
Starting point is 01:08:02 you poo pooed my hunt. I was making the argument in the offseason that are we sure Arthur Smith likes Desmond Ritter. Where they took him, They took the linebacker over him. They didn't play him last year when Mario da Sucked,
Starting point is 01:08:13 and then they go out and they signed Taylor Heineke to the big contract. I think you poo-pooed that argument. I think that argument has a lot of merit. No, I pooh the idea that he likes Heinekees more than Ritter, that he doesn't like Ritter. It's very clear they like Ritter. I don't think it's very clear when you look at what's happening here. When we were talking at the time, they did, absolutely.
Starting point is 01:08:33 I don't know if they liked him, maybe. I don't give it a much shot. Why do you go out and sign Hineke because you're like, like, I'm not quite sure about Desmond Ritter. Let's go out and let's invest in something. I think you go out and you sign Hineke because your quarterback costs you like $1.1 million. And you don't know if he's going to be a long-term starter. They like Ritter.
Starting point is 01:08:51 They like Ritter. I think they still like Ritter. I think they also just know that he's had seven turnovers in the last three games, including four or five have been in enemy territory. And they need to win games to stay on top of the NFC South. Falcons are still winning the South. Good defense, good weapons are going to be fine. Arthur Smith, since we last spoke,
Starting point is 01:09:10 still would not really treat anyone like a grown-up and explain why Taylor He started. I can't believe I didn't keep, but just be a regular person on the podium, tirade until after he stood up there and just said, oh, there's a lot of variables. Dude, it's football. There's four variables, maybe.
Starting point is 01:09:27 Like, come on. These players are grown-ups, the fans are grown-ups. It's okay. It's so bad. No one's going to, if you say, we just want Ritter to take a step back here, We think he'll be better for this. We still believe in him, but we're just going to have him take a breather here and go with,
Starting point is 01:09:42 guess what? Everybody can handle that. It's okay. But it's okay. We'll see what happens. I took the Vikings at plus four and a half in my column there. So we are on opposite sides. No surprise.
Starting point is 01:09:53 Four point win, baby. Here we go. Window it. We'll see. I don't like, you're definitely on the other side of my next pick based on all your comments earlier here. I'm thinking the Panthers as a home dog here. I initially had three favorites as my locks of the week.
Starting point is 01:10:06 I go, you can't have three favorites as your locks of the week. Take a dog here. I'm taking the Panthers. Plus, do you have three favorites? I usually do. Okay. Yeah. No, I would much prefer to have three dogs, but I couldn't.
Starting point is 01:10:19 It's like, I don't know who's starting a quarterback at any of these games. I'm like, I can't take any of these dogs. I don't even know who's playing. So the Panthers were won. I thought the Panthers defense last week against the Texans was their best performance of the season. I mean, they were flying around Frankie Louvo all over the place. C.J. Stroud to 140 yards, you and I have talked about. Like, C.J. Stroud is lighten some teams up. Like, that is not something to just sneeze at. So maybe there's still some hope for our boy,
Starting point is 01:10:46 Jiro Everro, in that Panthers defense. They're not going to be as good as I thought they were going to be before the season, but I think they can be a lot better than what they've shown so far. So can they slow down that Colts offense? Maybe. Solek likes the Colts ground game there. He easily could be right about that. But I was just, it's probably a recancy bias, but I was encouraged by what I saw from Carolina's defense last week. Offensively, the Panthers have given up 37 points or more in three straight games. You alluded to it earlier. They have issues at corner.
Starting point is 01:11:17 That is not a great defense. So the Panthers offense last week was that was not like a, ooh, the Panthers offense has gotten right, you know, type of game. I mean, they squeaked that out there at the end. 15, 13. Bryce Young was still taking a lot of sacks in that game. They didn't look great. but I just feel like this is sort of a toss-up type of game, and I don't think the Colts are as bad as their 0-and-6 record to start the season showed,
Starting point is 01:11:41 and I like them here as Home Dogs Against the Indianapolis Colts. What could go wrong? All right. A lot. I agree. It's a 1-16. Yeah. Colts have been really good on offense.
Starting point is 01:11:56 Not really good. Colts have been surprisingly solid on offense over the last few weeks. I'm very excited for a halfway point. of the season and doing a little check-in on where we're at, because I can't wait to give a little Josh Downs hype. Really, really like Josh Downs coming out of UNC. He was a round one player for me. Has emerged as the most reliable receiver on this Colts team. Garner Minchu, a huge fan of Downs, Minchew is. Minchew's done a really nice job holding it down again, like having an actual solid QB2. Like I said, running game wise, offensive line-wise, they've stepped up,
Starting point is 01:12:25 I think a lot from the start of the season. This Colts offense, like Shane Steichen's got the goods, man. Every time we talk about Stikin, you always, like, oh, the Eagles' offense or this, Colts office and that, but you just land on this point where you're like, this guy's consistently calling the right thing in the right spot. He's doing more with less. He is a more with less coach. And I didn't think he was going into the season B. Honest, I thought he was getting a little bit too much hype.
Starting point is 01:12:45 I've been impressed with that team. I've been impressed with that offense, no doubt about it. And you could see Stuyken, you could see this becoming a bit of a shootout because the defense is so banged up and is so bad, but like, I don't know if I, like, Bryce Young and a shootout. Like, I'm not even there yet on that, on that passing game. So I'm personally on the Colts. My third and my final one, though, goes off of that Panthers, Texans game you're talking about.
Starting point is 01:13:09 I like the Texans minus three at home against the Buccaneers. Bucks pass offense, excuse me, Bucks past defense has really, really struggled the last few weeks, not having nearly the success that we're used to seeing this defense have. That shroud performance, that Texans performance, that was a bad offensive performance from them, great defensive performance by the Panthers. They were so close on a lot of stuff. that have been conversions taken back for penalties and they're getting down into the red zone
Starting point is 01:13:35 and they were running the football too much. They needed to go back to kind of think what was working for them was just letting Stroud take the keys of this offense and go. That's the exact sort of approach. I think it's going to work really well against Tampa Bay. I do think that Houston got surprised. He got jumped a little bit by Carolina. I think that was a young team loss and an embarrassing team loss.
Starting point is 01:13:53 But you expect them to do a good job kind of rallying the wagon, circling the wagons, because D'emiko, Stroud, they have a lot of young energy on that team. They're going to bounce back quickly. And this Buccaneers team is a good team to do it up against. They're at home. I think that defensively as well, they have the requisite pieces to get a lot of pressure on Baker, which is where he's, by the numbers, he's been solid against pressure this year.
Starting point is 01:14:14 But when you watch Baker play, you can tell that when he gets heated up, his internal clock speeds up a lot. And he gets uncomfortable in the pocket. And he makes inaccurate throws. John Grenard, Jerry Hughes, Will Anderson, the rookie, still playing great ball. This is a good pass rush in Houston. I like their ability to win this by more than a feel. go. So Texans minus three at home against the Bucks. My last pick was between this game and another game. But for content's sake, I'm going to
Starting point is 01:14:39 go with the other game. I do like the Texans here. Yeah, I like the Texans quite a bit here. The only thing that made me a little nervous was like our rookie quarterback against Todd Bowles and the Bucs still have talent on that defense. But I thought that Texans defense played really well last year. I mean, it's Carolina who they make defenses look good. But yeah, they were, I mean, they sacked Bryce Young. Like I said, six times. The Panthers had 200. 24 total yards. The bucks haven't scored more than 18 points in any of the last three games. So you don't need the Texans to put up like 30.
Starting point is 01:15:10 If the Texans put up like 22 points, they could easily cover this number at minus three. So I like that pick and I like that spot for them. You know, Texans come off that loss last week. So maybe people are like, oh, maybe they're not that good. I think they are a pretty good team and a well-coached team. You brought up Bowls for a rookie quarterback. Right now against the Blitz, C.J. Stroud, eighth by EPA for dropback, seventh by success rate among all quarterbacks.
Starting point is 01:15:33 Stroud's been shredding the Blitz. That makes sense. He's so comfortable in the pocket. He's advanced. I wouldn't be surprised. I looked at Stroud props and Nico Collins props quite a bit. And I didn't take either one personally or for the show. But I would not be surprised if we get a nice, solid Stroud performance where he takes
Starting point is 01:15:50 his buck's defense for a ride. All right. My last one says I'm not going to take the Texans. I haven't done this. I haven't taken the Eagles this year. So like I'm taking the Eagles. the picks contest minus three at home against the Cowboys. Offensively, it has not looked.
Starting point is 01:16:07 It has not been as easy as it was last year. But if you sit back and take a look, they're top five, top eight by pretty much every metric. They're better in EPA per drive this year than they were last year when, again, everything looked so easy. AJ Brown has just been such a problem solver for them. Jalen Hertz has the knee injury. And so I think what you saw in film last week was, he is an athlete who is so attuned to like what his physical limitations are or like what he
Starting point is 01:16:37 needs to do. And so he wasn't running around. He wasn't scrambling. It was like, all right, we're taking the checkdowns. We're running RPO's. We're getting the ball out of our hands. And I think that'll be, you know, a nice option here against this Cowboys team. You know, if the Cowboys commit extra resources to A.J. Brown, you still got Devante Smith. You still got Dallas Goddard. I mentioned it earlier. The Cowboys left tackle situation concerns me. I think Josh Sweat has been fantastic for the Eagles this season. Josh Sweat could have a big game here. So I think it's close.
Starting point is 01:17:06 I don't think the Eagles blow them out. I just trust them more. I trust them more specifically at home in this spot. I think they're two very good teams. But I've got the Eagles something like 27, 23 covering that three point number. There you go. My heart wants to be it with you. If I get a Cowboys plus three and a half line,
Starting point is 01:17:26 I'm probably going to take the hook and take the Cowboys. I think these teams are pretty evenly matched. And obviously, like, when you go to talk about home field advantage and how much does it matter in betting, well, games in Philadelphia tend to matter. Like, that tends to actually be a legitimate thing. Altogether, I think that these teams are pretty evenly matched. Again, I think that the Cowboys have been playing really, really, really impressive ball down on the stretch. I think the Cowboys know this is an important game for them to win. DAC hurts is like a, which should be like a budding rivalry.
Starting point is 01:17:58 they could keep rivalry, huge rivalry. We didn't actually see these two play each other last year, right? We had Cooper Rush first hurts to start the season. Then we had Minchu against Dak late in the season. I'm very excited to see these two quarterbacks face off. I think I go back and forth in this total. I really want to be over on 46.5. I'm worried that Eagles just sit on this ball so much.
Starting point is 01:18:19 And then you get a McCarthy heavy run dose game and all of a sudden just a time slips away from you. But I think we have a shot of seeing like a one score game that goes back and forth. And if so, again, plus three. and a half, like getting the hook is just good business. I won't feel great about it, but it is. So I don't know. I'm nowhere on it yet, but I'm watching the line. There you go. Minus 3 right now.
Starting point is 01:18:37 All right, Solac, give us your recap. What do you got for the people this week? Yeah, Travis Kelsey under 7.8 and a half yards. We're going to get in the Colts game, both Zach Moss over 40 yards and Jonathan Taylor over 50 rushing yards for a long shot and then locking Browns minus 8.5 at home against the Cardinals. Falcons minus 3 at home against the Vikings and Texans, minus 3 at home against the Buccaneers. You and I are going to be the only ones locked in Colts Panthers. Tiled it. Me and you are going to be dialed into that game. All right. I've got Adam Thielen over 66.5
Starting point is 01:19:10 receiving yards. I've got Dalton Kincaid as my long shot 50 plus receiving yards. And my locks, Chiefs minus one and a half in Germany against the dolphins, Panthers plus two and a half at Indy and Eagles minus three at home against the Cowboys. Do I feel good? about him. No, but I need listeners hitting chill up. So like so mad at me. He's so disappointed. It's like he's many. Ben told you not to start your day with this. This is not how you want to feel. Usually, you know, he makes jokes that like, you know, he's like, like, you're my nephew. You're looking at me like you're my disappointed father. You're like, what? Wow. I told you a few weeks ago. Back on the Germany game. Or back on the abroad game, I should say. Shame.
Starting point is 01:19:54 Listen. All right. There you go. Thank you to Cliff Augustine for. Thank you to Eduardo Ocampo for his video production. Remember, follow Ringer NFL on all social media channels. You can see videos. You can see Ben's look of disappointment when I picked the Chiefs. A visual medium there. Additional production supervision by Connor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgopal. Next up, Nora and Stephen on dual threat Sunday.
Starting point is 01:20:19 What a dual threat that's going to be. Recapping these awesome games, hopefully on Sunday. All the Week 9 action, be sure to check that out. and then Solek and I will be back Monday. Jets Chargers, I mean, you're so lucky. You have the first take this way on that something's going to happen in that game. I don't know what it's going to be. Zach Wilson, out duels, Justin Herbert.
Starting point is 01:20:40 Yeah, yeah. Solac will be yelling into a microphone at 1145 Eastern Time on Monday night as we talk about that game. So check that out. All right, everyone, have a great weekend. Enjoy the games. We'll talk to you next week on Extra Pointing. Must be 21 plus and present in select states. Fandwell is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC.
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