The Ringer NFL Show - No Team Can Win Like the Ravens, the Chiefs Are Not Winning the Super Bowl This Year, and More Big Takeaways From Week 16 | Extra Point Taken

Episode Date: December 26, 2023

Sheil and Ben return to share their takes on the Ravens' big Christmas Day win over the 49ers and shine a light on the state of both teams as we head toward the end of the season. Next, the guys debate the championship viability of the struggling Chiefs and take a look at the obstacles that are keeping Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars offense at a production standstill (26:32). Ben then shares his optimism for the Lions in the playoffs, and Sheil ends the pod with his ideal postseason projections for the Bears and Cardinals (52:38). The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please check out theringer.com/RG to find out more, or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Ben Solak and Sheil Kapadia Associate Producer: Chris Sutton Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Musical Elements: Devon Renaldo Social: Kiera Givens and Eduardo Ocampo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Rigger Gambling Feed is back every Monday. Join myself, Joe House. Rahim Palmer and John Dershepsie for East Coast Bias. Sunday's action recap and our favorite bets for Monday night football. Then on Tuesday we got the Rosseudamondish show where I'll break down everything you need to know in the betting world. Plus the East Coast Bias boys will be back on Thursday to help you get your betting card sorted ahead of all the NFL action. And then on Fridays it's me back with Warren Sharp, deep diving into the analytics. So be sure to subscribe on.

Spotify or wherever you get your podcast. I'm two extra points taking, Shield Kapali here, joined by Ben Solak. Doing this a little Tuesday morning. Addition to find folks at Rinkers. You don't have to record on Christmas Day. Enjoy Christmas Day with their families. Watch a little football.

Come back Tuesday. We'll get the recording up then. So we had a full slate on Christmas. We had a full slate on Christmas Eve. We had a full slate. Was it Festivus? We had a full? I mean, just football.

Nonstop. they're doing NFL, doing everything they can to not let you speak or hang out with your family. But that's okay. Because we got a great Christmas night. Yeah, ideal. We got a great Christmas night game, Ben So like that we're going to talk about to lead the show. How are you doing? Listen, a whole gamut of Christmas football, you're back so I don't have to host this show anymore.

Did well in the PICS competition. Ideal week for me. I'm wearing a new flannel. This is, I'm peaking. This is the best I've been in months. never leave again, dude. Hosting is the worst. You did a wonderful job.

I felt like Carson Wentz watching, you know, Nick Fulce, hoist the Super Bowl trophy. Thank you to Soak. Thank you to Nora. Thank you to Ruiz for filling in for me, not feeling well last week. But back at it. So here we go.

We're talking Ravens 49ers to lead the show, Solag. I've got a Ravens take. You've got a Niners take. I feel like there are 400 different angles to this game. Ravens come out with a 33-19 win. Ravens' sake was just this. It's nothing earth-shattering. Just that watching that game, and I felt this way for a while, but it really stood out watching that game, no team can win the way the

Ravens win. And I think there's two aspects to this. As we look ahead, can they finally get over the hump with Lamar Jackson and John Harbaugh and win the Super Bowl? Number one, they're the most balanced team in the NFL. I mean, you see the way they win these games. They can win with their run game. They can win with Lamar in structure. Like, early in that game, I'm going, oh, passing games a little bit off and then they kind of get going. They're winning in structure. Then all of a sudden, you're seeing a LaMorada structure, scrambling for 31, finding Gus Edwards on the dump off for another explosive play. They can win in either of those ways with the passing game. We know they can win with the defense. Holy cow, what a defensive performance from that Ravens team against the

Niners. We know they can win with special teams. And so you add all these things up and they are just such a hard team to put away. Like, unless just it is their worst day at the office, we're not Nothing is working where they're not getting any bounces. They're going to be in every game. And we've seen that this entire season. No team has beaten the Ravens by more than seven points this season. Okay, they have three losses all by a total of 12 points. So that's the one aspect of this.

And the second aspect of this I thought was interesting with, you know, the Ravens players kind of puffing their chests out after the game. Patrick Queen saying, Ben, I know you're going to like this. We play it. You're an old school football guy. You're going to like this. we play a brand of football that people don't want to play. And it was so interesting coming from Patrick Queen,

because this was not Patrick Queen's reputation earlier in his days as a Ravens player. It was like, does this guy actually fit what the Ravens generally are? Now he's coming since they got Roquant Smith. He's been a different player. I generally scoff at the, oh, just go out and hit him in the mouth. You know, I generally am like, all right, settle down. Offenses are too good. I believe in speed.

That's not going to work. But then you watch that game and you see Kyle Hamilton and you see Marlon Humphrey and you see Roquant Smith and you see Jedevian Clowning and you see like every single player on that Ravens defense and it's like, okay, I think actually there is some truth to that. I think the two defenses right now that can actually say they play that way, that we play a brand of football, nobody wants to play, that we bring the fights to our opponents in a meaningful way when everyone's saying, too high, don't give up explosive. No, no, no, we're old school. we're bringing the fight to the opponent. I think it's the Ravens and the Browns. And I think you saw that during that Monday night game. The Ravens do play a lot of too high though.

But yes, I agree. Listen, they're not just sitting back there saying matriculate the ball down the field. Right. It's more than just too high. So this really feels like the Ravens time. I mean, they still have to take care of business against the dolphins. They could still be in play for the one seat, even if they lose that game. They have to take advantage right now, Ben,

because they've got Mike McDonald's, I don't think Mike McDonald's going to be there next year. I mean, talk about stock soaring here this season. I think he's going to get a head coaching opportunity. You have a healthy Lamar Jackson. Let's keep it that way going into the playoffs. You have a wide open AFC. I was there 2019.

I covered that Ravens Titans game in Baltimore, 14 and 2. That team felt pretty invincible, kind of like this one did. And all of a sudden, snap of your fingers. They're out of the playoffs. they have not gotten past the divisional round. Dean peas, man. Dean peas. They've got the look right now.

You know, Mike McDonald, you see him flexing on the sideline at the end of that game. Lamar Jackson calling Mike Florio, Mike Flores, I think. That also was funny to me. The number of guys contributing on both sides of the ball, they have the look to me. They can win in ways. No other team can win. I don't know that any fan base can feel better about their team than the Ravens fan base going into the final team.

weeks of the season. Pending Kyle Hamilton health, I agree, right? I think, I think correct, which we don't know. As we record this, yeah, we don't know details. My Ravens fan, which was Harbaugh said, like, it looks like it's good. It looks like, like, you know, we're not like, he's not shelves for the year. But talking with my Ravens buddies after the game,

it was like, we're great, we're immortal, we're invincible, we're the best, this is so awesome. If Kyle Hamilton can't play, I'm never going to watch a Ravens game again. Because it was such a good game for him specifically. Like, he's had such a great season. He would have been on my all pro ballot at safety, before this game. This game was the cementing.

It was emphatic as the blitzing and the Carversher-McCathrie covers and the depot Samuel tackling and then the interception, just everything you could possibly ask a safety to do, this cat is capable of doing. And then he goes down with that knee and you're like, this is so unjust. And so altogether, I do agree with that Ravens team. Andrew Philipponi, I thought I had a good tweet. He's a 937, the fan. He's a Pittsburgh guy.

The Ravens have led at the two-minute warning in all 16 games this year. only two other teams have accomplished this. The 2007 Patriots, good team, good team, the 07 Patriots. The 1972 dolphins, good team, the 1972 dolphins were, right? It is a reminder that the Baltimore Ravens, like you said, oh, they've only lost three games. Right, they lost like the dumbest Steelers game imaginable. They lost to the Colts because Justin Tucker missed multiple fields. Domest Colts game imaginable.

Exactly. It was like legit like shooting star, meteoric eclipse events. when Justin Tucker's missing fuel goals. It's like a rainy day. Like the games they've lost, and this goes back to last year, they've lost for dumb reasons late in games, which absolutely,

when I'm watching that Ravens team take a 21 point lead in the fourth quarter last night and Sam Donald cuts it to the 14 and Sam Donald's driving to cut it to 7. Am I thinking to myself? There's no way? Yes, 100% I'm doing that.

But altogether, this team, for the brunt of games, for the majority of games, controls, dictates, and dominates. I made my little cheeky, oh, they play too high comment, but you're exactly correct. shield. We like the bucket too high. I'd say, oh, you know, one high, aggressive,

get numbers in the box, stop the run. Too high, passive, stop the pass. There's a variety of ways to play too deep coverage. You've got to play cover two. Matt Iberflew sit back there, deep zones, John Gannon, deep zones, give up the underneath stuff. And then there's the Baltimore Ravens version, which is we play too high to be versatile. We play too high to match coverage. We play too high to suffocate you, to take you away to eat up space. Like, we think our back seven's going to be better than your five. It was unbelievable. I watched the film this morning. First thing, I had Ravens defense, Niners' offense. I don't have coffee yet. The

way this team plays, just zone coverage. Just how everybody passes things off at the right time to players where they're expected. They don't get stretched. They don't get stressed. They don't blow assignments. And when they do blow assignments, they give up a 20-yard gain of George Kittle. They don't let it spiral.

Is it get back out there? We're going to run quarters. We're going to be right this time. It is very like, if every defense coordinator had their druthers, they would run the defense that the Ravens are running, Because they're just running zone. They're just running zone. They're dropping into coverage.

You're taking away routes. But you don't have seven guys be this correct and this coordinated, this choreography, snap after snap the way the Ravens have achieved this year. It is an unbelievable job of coaching. And to Patrick Queen's comment, they don't want to play us. Brock Purdy was like the first quarter,

quarter half of Brock Party, he was playing well. Like he was playing good football. He had interceptions. The Kyle Hamilton picked, the first one was a bad throw. It was a bad decision. But overall, he was playing good ball. He got hassled, dude. He got rattled.

He got hit in the mouth a couple of times. They got free rushers on him, and lying his Christmas tree, and eventually he didn't want to play ball anymore. That's what happens when you dictate like this. They absolutely rattled a guy who isn't used to being rattled. That's the sort of people don't want to play us. We hit you.

Right? We hit you in the mouth. We make this unpleasant. That is a great defensive identity. I think right now, if you gave me a control over a team, independent of what that team is, of who that team is,

quarterback situation and Calface, whatever. and you said, Ben, you can hire Ben Johnson, Lyons' offensive coordinator, or Mike McDonald, Raven Stevens' coordinator as your head coach. I think I take Mike. I think Mike does the rarer thing. I think Ben Johnson's a great coach,

but I think I, and like obviously there's a lot of wisdom to like, okay, hire an offensive coach because that way he won't get plucked, right? He won't get snagged from you. You can protect your offensive system. I hear that. But what Mike is achieving and like,

it's just dangerously close to the Brandon Staley stuff because Brandon Staley was doing it with the Jalen Ramsey and Aaron and now Mike's doing it with Kyle Hamilton, Roquan Smith. And I tell you, those two are tops at their position. Those are elite game-changing talents.

But what Mike's doing is not a common thing. This is an extremely well-coached unit. So I am blown away by Mike McDonald. I'm blown away by this defense. And offensively, yeah, you brought up that 2019 Raven season and that 14-2 lost the Titans in the divisional round. But this Lamar is so different than that Lamar.

This Lamar is so balanced. Offense is completely different too. Yeah. I'm having the experience. this year where I'm watching Lamar like, run, go, run, stop trying to pass. Like, do you imagine saying that about Lamar four years ago? Where, like, you just didn't have that response.

But he's just constantly like, I'm going to hang behind the line and find Zay Flowers on the scramble drill. And you're like, no, dude, just go. Like, you're the man. But it is the correct choice. He's right, and I'm wrong, and it makes the offense work. They're an astonishing team, and they're very well balanced. They can beat you a ton of different ways.

I think that's huge for them as they make this run. Number one in offensive DVOA, only team they're in the top five offense, defense, and special teams in DVOA. I mean, that is rare. Usually, like, I always joke in the offseason, build the great offense, and then get by on defense and see what happens. Like, to have this many strengths all over the place and they all really manifested themselves in that game against the 49ers is very, very impressive. So we'll see what happens the rest of the way. Listen, the AFC playoffs.

Oh, my goodness, they're going to be a lot of fun. of teams that could win there, but no one better situated than the Ravens. All right, I'm very interested. So I messaged you last night and said, all right, you know, we should do two takes on this game because it's so good. And these are two like very relevant teams. And you said, and you said, all right, cool, I've got a 49ers take. And I thought, okay.

All right, what's he, what's he Joneson to get to? So what is your 49ers angle to that game? Well, I think is I've already planted a lot of my Ravens flags. Check the Lamar MVP receipts, baby. we've been home to support a fan to a leader. I loving it. The Niners take is, I felt it last night. I felt it again watching the film.

Niners, you're all right. You're okay. You're going to be, you're going to be just fine. As a guy who largely has been a Brock Bertie doubter and has been below, you know, the median on Brock and, you know, didn't think Brock should win MVP and the Niners fans very angry about that. Brock did not have a four-in-thee game. Yeah, he had a bad game. You didn't have a four I&T game. Like, I watched Nick Mullins throw four receptions against the Lions.

That was a four I&T game. All right. I know what it looks like. That was an eight IMP game. Yeah. Like I said, Brock was solid to start the game, right? We had to remember that at one point that this game, it was like, oh, it was like 13 to five, right? Weird score.

Ravens are leading. But Brock had like 11 yards for attempt or something, right? They had the huge George Kettle catch and run. Another George Kettle. Brennan, I, Hugh, going to blaze out, Debo, Samuel, down the field, 20 yards. Like, they were ripping off explosives. the way that they typically do. And they were doing that in early downs.

When the Ravens could get them into late downs, the Ravens could dictate and their Ravens could win. But on early downs, they were throwing the ball successfully. And then in that second half, when they wanted to run it, they were running it successfully. Well, this offense was working. The first I-N-Ted to Kyle Hamilton, bad throw, he threw right into the teeth of it.

That was such a too much gumption throw. Like, oh, I'm immortal. Like, no, you're not, dude. Look at the safety. Very bad decision. The second interception was the Brandon Stevens' deflection, Marlon Humphrey caught it behind the line of scrimmage. They were thrown a now screen off of an RPO.

Corner comes on the blitz. You throw the screen. Corner deflection, that's objectively already a good play. And now it bounces to Marlon Humphrey. Not a lot you can do about that one. That's good defensive keys by the Ravens. There's no untendency. The third one is another pass breakup, right?

The Ravens got him on a coverage rotation. And he starts scrambling around back there. He's trying to make something happen. He attempts a high difficulty throw. He gets away with these a lot. one of my things with Brock is like, oh, he's much better scrambling and out of the pocket than Jimmy was. Yes, that's true, but he still tries stuff.

He shouldn't try. He doesn't have a hammer of an arm. He can't really make these throws. So it ends getting popped up, and it lands Ryan Kyle Hamilton's hands. Like, these are usually PBOUs. These are usually second and 10. And instead, they're short fields.

Like, and that's bad luck. It is. And then the fourth one, he's late to Christian McCaffrey and he gets hit out in the throw. He shouldn't be late to it. He should be faster to it. He should have already gotten rid of it. But again, his right tackle loses right away.

And his arm gets hit. it's part of playing football. He didn't have as bad of a game as four interceptions would suggest. Now, he's had a stinger in back-to-back weeks. And if there's something that worries me about Brock, there's a lot worries me, about Brock. One thing that worries me about Brock is the fact that he is a small guy, and I think hits kind of accumulate on him a little bit.

And you could see that in this game, where he just started to get real squirrely around pressure and just get rubulk where his feet weren't good. I do think that the season really wears on a guy his size. So I think you're starting to see him overreact to pressure, to pressure and overreacted contact, which does scare me for a long season. But all together, like,

McCaffrey, Debo, are you kiddle? Like, what makes this offense work, Shanahan, that still remains. So Brock had a four-in-T game. He's going to turn around next week as the commanders have a fourth touchdown game.

Like, this is not like a beginning of the end sort of a thing. Now, Trent Williams went down in the second half with a groin injury. And then his backup went down also during this game. Aaron Banks was starting guard for them, kicked out,

tackle because of the injuries, he went down during this game. Like, leave will be dealing with offensive line injuries. And in particular, Trent, like, they have not won a game this year that Trent Williams hasn't finished. They are 0 and 4 in games where Trent Williams gets hurt during or does not play. Like, Trent is a hugely valuable player to an offensive line that I think is, like, solid,

but really needs that linchpin on the left side to kind of make this scheme go. And so the Trent Williams injury is a big thing. I think if you have any concern, you're kind of the accumulating injuries in the offensive line, like something's going to sink this ship, it's that. But offensively, like, oh, it's bad. performance for INTs, the sky is falling. I don't think it is. I think they could bounce back and do the exact same thing on offense. They've been doing all

season long next week against the commanders because Brock wasn't great, but a very few defenses can achieve with the Ravens achieved against him. And even then, he got pretty unlucky over the course of this game. Nyers are still the best team in the NFC by my book. I think they're going to represent the conference in the Super Bowl. I think they're going to be okay. I'm so disappointed. That was

two reasoned, two measured. That was going to be my, like, my comeback to whatever your take was, that was a little more. That's why I I said I have to do it because I knew I knew you were ready to be to be me to the middle. And I was like, no, I will be beating shields of the middle. I mostly feel the same way too. It's like it's like when there's a quarterback, like we always, I feel like and I'll count myself on this.

It's hard to like guard against when you have like a take or an opinion of a quarterback. And then that quarterback that quarterback has a great game. Then you're like, you know, spike in the football. And that quarterback has a terrible game. And then you start making excuses. And then it's the quarterback that you don't have. have a high opinion of. And then that quarterback has a bad game. Oh, see? Told you so. And that quarterback has a good game. And you're like, yeah, but it

wasn't that. So we always do this. I tend to agree with you. I'm not like, you know, you'll make fun of me for being in the middle. I probably am in the middle on Brock Purdy. I think he's had a great season. I think he's executed the offense. Do I think he's the best quarterback in the NFL if I were doing a draft and said, who is the guy I want to build around? Would he be in the top three? No, he would not be in the top three there. At the same time, he's done what's asked of him and that offense has operated at historic levels. He's allowed to have a bad game. Look at every quarterback in the NFL this year.

Lamar Jackson has had bad games. Patrick Mahomes has had bad games. Josh Allen has had bad. I could go on and on Joe Burrow at Jalen Hurd. All these guys have had bad games this season and it's like, all right, Brock Purdy had a bad game where we're just typically used to seeing the 49ers put up 35 or 40 against their opponents. And I'm with you. Like I do think there's a little bit of a different game script where they get back in that game.

They don't have the offensive line injuries. Like early in that game, it wasn't, yeah, it wasn't like, oh, man, the Ravens are completely shutting them down. Like, I mean, they're getting a red zone turnover right there. They're getting three takeaways, which I've said in the past, like, I don't think any defense can really shut down this 49ers offense when it's at full strength going three and out, three and out, three and out. I think you have to be opportunistic, be aggressive. I couldn't agree more. Turnovers that are available to you. And that's, and that's what the Ravens did.

And credit to that. And they have an awesome defense. I think two defenses. the Browns and the Ravens, I don't know that there's another defense that's going to be capable of playing at that level. And both those defenses are in the AFC. So, yeah, I generally agree with you. I think most weeks, I think playoffs. I think Brock Purdy's going to be fine.

If he's healthy, I still think they're the favorites in the NFC. Now, I will say this, Ola. The darnal thing was kind of interesting to me. I mean, Purdy was cleared. Let's get messy. I'm just saying, well, I mean, Purdy's clear to go into the game. and you know, let me see I have my little yellow legal pad

which you know you'll make fun of me for writing in here. I've never made fun of you for the legal pad once. Every time you introduce it you're like he's going to make fun of me. I haven't done it a single time. Okay, okay. There's still like what, six, seven minutes left

in that game. Like they had a chance. I mean, Donald scores to touch it. It's 3319 with 435 left. To your point, the Ravens have lost games like this before. You have this crazy offense that can score in a hurry.

You get to 3319 and you force a three and out. You got a chance to steal this football game and the broadcast says, well, you know, the game's out of hand. I don't blame them for keeping Brock Purdy on the bench. Wait, what? No, no, no. You're battling for the one seed in the freaking NFC. There are stakes at play here.

Patrick Mahomes, is he being protected in that spot? No. Josh Allen, are you keeping him on the sidelines? No, of course not. So that's nonsense that like, oh, the game's over. We're going to keep Brock Purdy on the bench here and just roll with Sam Darnold. Now, Shanahan said after it was a combination of the score and the offensive line injuries. I'll just tell you my honest opinion, I felt at that time that Kyle Shanahan wanted to get a look at Sam Darnold in that situation, just to say.

That's how I felt. You can yell at me. You can call me. You can say, well, you're making something out of nothing. This is not what happened. you have a chance to still win that game, to steal that game, and you don't, he's cleared. It's very, you talk to NFL coaches most of the time.

It's very cut and dry. Medical staff says the guy's cleared or he's not cleared. They don't have time to be getting into eight-minute conversations about that. There was a great camera work. I'll give the camera people a lot of credit during that broadcast. They go to Purdy and Darnold on the bench. Greasy's there. Purdy's like, am I going in?

If I not going in, Donald's like, are you going in? Are you not going in? Greasy points to Kyle Shanahan. And he's like, go ask him. He's that coach. Bertie goes over to Shanahan. Shanahan covers his mouth, says something to party. Party goes back to the bench.

Donald comes back in the game. All right, tell me I'm crazy. Do you buy Kyle Shanahan's take there that it was just score offensive line? Or are you with me that there was at least some piece of Kyle Shanahan that in that in that spot said, I kind of just want to see what Sam Donald's going to give us after he put together that great first try. I don't think it's, I want to see what Sam Donald has. I think it's,

I can engineer a 21 point come back with Sam Donald. I can pull that off. I got that. No problem. That's not a huge drop off. A little bit tongue in cheek there. What I will say is I do think that if you took it away from being a stinger and took it into like rib,

you know, or like knee, I think you're a lot more likely to see Purdy go back out there. Like he brings up, oh, the offensive line, injuries. Yeah, they were already having the injuries when Purdy got hurt, okay? Like, that was not like those happened afterward. Like, Trent was already out for a lot of the Purdy second half there. So I think, like, the nature of stingers and the fact that, like, they can be re-ignited. I'm using all incorrect medical terminology. I'm sorry for people who actually know things about stingers who are like, this guy's an idiot. But in general, like, that can be like a nagging

injury. It can be a recurring injury. It can be easily re-iritated as something you want to be careful around. And so I think that that probably the mercurial nature of it, like, always to go back in the game, but he's at a high risk of re-injury. I don't know. I think that probably adds to it. What I will say, like, in terms like Purdy quality versus Sam Darnal quality, in the first half, when Trent was still in,

like looking at the Ravens' defensive game plan, the way they decided to play the game relative to what they expected, Trent's going to be healthy, the offensive line's going to be good, whatever. It was very clear that the Ravens thought the weak link on the offense was purdy. Right?

Like, they play, like, you thought about being opportunistic. You can't really fully stop this. offense. Right. Like, they regularly gave Brandon IUC 10 yards of cushion free release.

Like, that's usually a death knell defense way. They gave George Kittle, like, all right, we're just have Kyle Hamilton covered George Kittle

for like 15 yards of depth. Like, that's, teams do this and they die against the Niners. The Niners score 50 on them. But they did it saying, all right,

we know we're not going to be able to really, like, actually cover all these guys all the time. So we're going to put guys in a line of scrimmage. We're going to send a fifth guy off the edge

because we think that we, the weak link here is purty. We think that Shanahan over four quarters is going to out scheme us. He's going to open guys up. I mean, over four quarters, Debo's going to outrun us, and Kettle's going to break tackles, and McAfric is going to outrun us. But if we can hassle this guy,

the fulcrum here is Purdy, if we can make him uncomfortable, making him make mistakes, that's how we'll win, that's what we'll get our opportunities. And they were dramatically paid off for that with four interceptions. You run that back a hundred times. You're not getting that every single time.

But then, like, it is, like, minus fans got mad at me, like, oh, the offense of the line is the weakness. It was by the end of the game when multiple guys went out. in the beginning of the game, the weak link for this, this offense was Purdy. And that's what, like,

I've been harping on, and Stevens are harping on other film guys have been harping on when they talk about this offense. Like, Purdy's good. Like, Purdy brings stuff to the table. Purdy's better than Garaplo. No two ways around it.

But when you go to stop this offense and you figure out what you want to attack, you can't be like, all right, well, let's just, you know, use our Debo Samuel eraser. That doesn't exist, dude. Like, oh, let's just stack the boxing Christian McCaffrey.

You're still going to lose, man. Like, there's no. Chanan's going to beat you. The way you beat this team is you really put the onus on Purdy to make good decisions fast. That's what the Ravens game plan taught me. Mitch is something to his credit. He has been pretty good at for most of the season there. To be clear, I'm not saying, I don't think Darnold has any chance of operating this offense as well as Pertie over an extended period of time.

I think that's doing a great disservice to Brock Purdy. I know there are Darnold's truthers out there. I will at least admit that Darnold looked great during that. I agree, but it's fun to say. Yeah, I darn to look great during that one drive, probably as best as he's ever looked as an NFL quarterback. I think it would be a fun natural experiment if we ever saw it. But I don't know. Something seemed a little bit off there with that decision making.

I think it was more than just the score and the offensive line entries. All right. Let's take a break. Come back with more takes. As the weather gets cold, the NFL offers, stay hot on Fandle. Right now, new customers get $150 in bonus bets when your first $5 money line bet wins. upcoming week, I do like the Eagles against the spread against the Cardinals. And the Lions right now, six point underdogs to the Cowboys in Dallas.

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First online real money wager only, $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets that expires seven days after receipt. See terms at sportsbook.fandle.com. All right, we are back on extra point taken. This take is brought to you by Columbia Sportswear. Makers of the Omni Heat Infinity Collection with Tiny Gold Dots that reflect your body heat. Omni Heat Infinity delivers instant warmth without compromising breathability. Cold outside, gold inside with Columbia's Omni Heat.

Infinity Collection. Go out anyway. Learn more at Columbia.com slash infinity. All right. This is a dangerous take to associate with Columbia because I could get old takes exposed in the months ahead. But I'm burying the chiefs, Ben Solek. They are not winning the Super Bowl.

This team is not good enough. I realize this is dangerous. I realize this can get thrown back into my face in five or six weeks when they're in Vegas representing the AFC and everyone's saying they, you should have never doubted Mahomes and Andy Reid. I'm sorry, I've seen enough this season. You're going into the final two weeks of the season. How many times are we going to be having conversations about this offense? They've played 109 games with Patrick Mahomes.

That game ranked 109th. in EPA per drive. Their worst game in terms of EPA per drive with Patrick Mahomes as their starter. Now, I know they gave up two touchdowns.

You're saying, come on, that's not indicative. It was 103rd in success rate. The offense was not working for the majority of that game. By the way, credit to the Raiders' defense. I mean, they came,

oh, well, what did Antonio Pierce tell those? Side note. Favorite moment during a Christmas Day broadcast was when they were like, Antonio Pierce told this team to play with hatred and violence.

violence. I was laughing. I was laughing doing that. But they came out playing with their collective hair on fire. They played great. This Chief's offense, though, now averaging 21.7 points per game. They have never averaged fewer than 27.3 points per game. This is a massive drop-off.

And we've seen it week after week after week. We keep waiting. They'll figure it out. They'll figure it out with this guy. They'll write Andy Reed. Patchy Marashi, right. It's not. It's the past catchers, yes.

It's the offensive tackles also, by the way. You signed Juan Taylor to a monster contract in the offseason, selling everyone on the notion. He's going to replace Orlando Brown at left tackle. Then you play him at right tackle. You're starting Donovan Smith at left tackle. He goes down with an injury. Now you have a backup left tackle in there.

It's not great offensive tackle play. It's not great wide receiver. Wanya Morris. Great name, Wanya Morris. The past catchers aren't good enough. If they had answers, we would have seen the answers by now. And so you could say, yeah, but the AFC is wide open. True.

But right now, if the season ended today, Ben, the Kansas City Chiefs would host the Buffalo Bills at home in the first round. They would likely have to go to Miami in the divisional round. And then they would potentially have to go to Baltimore in the AFC championship game. I'm sorry. This team is not good enough to play mistake-free football. for three games against those caliber opponents and come out on the other side and give you the surprise season where everyone says, Sheel, you should have never doubted Mahomes and injury. Am I a little scared about this take? Yes, of course I'm a little scared about this take. But listen, sometimes you got to just go with it. It's how I feel. Usually I actually take the other side. I say, all right, everyone's worried about this. It's not that big of a deal. They still have the coach. They still have the quarterback. No, no. My eyes have told me all season long that Mahomes is standing back.

they're looking, looking. I mean, every dropback against the way he's like scrambling. There's nothing in structure. There's nothing, no rhythm to the offense. And again, it's not a one game thing. It's happened time after time, after time. I'm burying the chiefs. They're not getting to the Super Bowl.

They got to look at themselves in the mirror in the offseason and say, how can we help our quarterback give him enough so that we can get back to where we were a year ago. All right. You don't feel the same way, I think. Well, so I wrote about the chief. and what island I'm on. Actually, at the end of the hot read,

because there's, the chiefs are, you know, concerningly bad. This is a very big consternation. There's that train and then there's the chiefs are fine train. And I've spent my entire season on the chiefs or fine train, just waving at at the chiefs are concerning the bad train, waving at you being like, guys, Patrick Baholmes, don't worry about it. This is the first game where like, I put the backpack on,

I zipped up the suitcase. I started walking out of my train and maybe started going, this was the game. I got a seat here. I saved you a seat. Yeah. this, I don't think I'm going to actually switch trains.

I think that if I'm going to be wrong about things, which I inevitably will be in this postseason, I'd like to be wrong believing in Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. Like, that feels fine to me. I might as well just be wrong doing that as opposed to doing something else. What I will say is that this is there have been games that have been

bad statistically for Mahomes, but I've watched it and been like, holy smokes, good player. This is the first game where I was like, all right, Patrick, like, you're very good. Like, the running around is very impressive. And you made several throws in this game where you're like, this guy's incredible. What an unbelievable talent. Patrick Mahomes is so good.

But altogether, from a snap to snap perspective, you're like, dude, like, you gotta just throw it. Like, it sucks that your receivers aren't very good. And it's bad that, like, you're dying in past protection right now. But you don't, like, even you don't get to, like, behave like this. We're just every single snap. It's like, all right, three step drop and I'm running around now. Like, throw something in rhythm, dude.

Just throw the curl on time. Like you have to do something structure because like Raiders wise defensively you're not even getting connected to routes really. You're not even like trying to take away structure. You're just, all right, we're in Russia with four and then our seven or sit back in zone and play with the eyes on the guy and then just win the scramble drill. You have to be able to threaten legitimate standard actual drop back passing game in order to make scramble drill like mean something. Do they make it have some velocity to it? We're like, all right, we've already ran this and put this defender here and moved that defender over there. so now when I scramble, this window's going to open.

You know, it's just backyard football, right? Think about defensive backyard football. You're just kind of standing 20 yards back, waiting for the quarterback to Chuck. He's never going to, like, throw an in-structure slant. It's backyard football. This game really made Mahomes feel to me like a burned man. It made Mahomes feel to me like a guy who just like,

the past section's been too bad, and the receivers have been not good. And so he's just out on participating in this offense. He's going to keep taking the snaps and trying to make things happen. But he's done with, like, like, this is designed to go here. And if you get too high, go to this, like, he's just done with it. Like, no more Marcus O'Sulles Scanling.

Done with that. You know, Justin Watson dropped another pass. Whatever. Like, I'm forcing this to Travis Kelsey. The other thing with the Office of Wine play is that, like, they were at their best this season offensively when they were a run team, right? When they could really grind it out with Pacheco. And then that would lessen the pass rush juice and allow Mahomes to be a more successful

passer from the pocket on, like, play action and stuff. And with Pacheco off that shoulder surgery and the offensive line playing this poorly, it's Pichco's second shoulder surgery this season, by the way. Like, he plays a very violent style of ball and it's fun to watch, but it's eating up on him. It's catching up to him. With that Pacheco injury and the offensive line quality where it's at,

they can't run the ball successfully. And so now they're in more drop-back pass. They're in more clear pass-way situations and the line can't hold up, and Mahomes is just not doing anything within structure. So this was the most concerning Mahomes game I've seen this season comfortably. Now, the Raiders were super amped up.

The Raiders past rushes, I think, better a lot of people realize. Malcolm Coons has been a nice little find opposite Max Crosby. I think that, you know, division arrival and we haven't beat him in seven tries, and Antonio Pierce, a lot of emotions for the Raiders. Raiders scored 14 points on two defensive plays. It's a little bit of a chaos game,

a little bit of a derpy game. I don't want to buy too much into it, but the way Mahomes is behaving week over week is scary me. The way he's playing. And I think that postseason-wise, if he walks out and he's like, I have to be Superman. I have to be Atlas world on my back corner to win this game from Snap 1.

He's probably going to lose those games. And that's what concerns me in the postseason. I have no time for those Mahomes arguments. I mean, I don't want to see any clips this week of Lois is the way the play is drawn out should have gone in structure here with Mahomes. They have sabotaged his season. He is looking to be the greatest quarterback of all time.

He's in his prime. He's healthy. And they have riddled him with Garbonzo Beans, pass catchers. Garbozzo Beans. offensive tackles and coaches with no answers for how to help him. So I have no time for that. This is human nature. This isn't just, oh, this was drawn up here and the ball should.

Yeah, I understand why he's doing that. He gave them 15 weeks to figure it out, including a buy week. They trade away Tyree Kill and they win the Super Bowl last year. No, it's going to be the, we're drafting these guys. We're bringing in younger players. We're signing Marcus Feldes scaling. Don't worry. You'll have guys.

And guess what? He can't trust any of them. Not one of them, except for his older tight end, Travis. Kelsey, which is the only guy anyone has to worry about and maybe on occasion, Rashi Rice, who is obviously not the guy you want to be leaning on when you're Patrick Mahomes at this juncture of your career. So I understand why he's operating the way he is. I think it's human nature.

I think pretty much any quarterback would be operating that way, especially given what he's shown in the past when he can just get into playground mode and create and do that. So if he's thinking to himself, you know what, I gave them time. They didn't do it. I'm just going to do what I need to do. I'm good enough. I'm going to put on the cape. I'm going to be Superman.

I don't care. Then I understand why he's doing that. And you know what? It might work. That it might win some games. So I have no time for any clips this week again about, you know, here's the concept.

He's got to get over. The ball should come out. Like, I don't want to hear about any of that because that is looking at the game in a vacuum, one game in a vacuum, and not the entire structure of this guy's competitive nature, his mentality and how the season has gone for him. So there you go. I hear that.

I understand what you. coming from that. I seriously do. I will say that, like, in terms of what do the chiefs have to do tomorrow to be more likely to win a game? Because tomorrow, they can't just, like, get new receivers in here, getting tackles in here. Mahomes has to be willing to play an structure a little bit more to win a game tomorrow. Overall, Mahomes is justified. His behavior is extremely understandable. We have documented it on this pod over the course of time where we're like, this is going to break the guy and is completely justified.

Right. So I'm with you on that one. If, you know, a Chiefs, I just want to make a clear as somebody who was once like a film account with 8,000 followers, if you're trying to like, you know, do the work, you can still post your clip.

Shield's not going to tell you to stop. I'm very supportive of you doing the job. Overall, what's wrong with the Chiefs is not so much that as the other stuff. That's true. I am. Yes. That's true.

You can show it to me. I'm not going to buy that. I'm going to understand why he is the way he is. All right. That Chief's take was brought to you by Columbia Sportswear. Makers of the Omni Heat Infinity Collection with tiny gold dots that reflect your body heat. Omni Heat Infinity delivers instant warmth without compromising breathability. Cold outside, gold inside with Columbia's Omni Heat Infinity Collection.

Go out anyway. Learn more at Columbia.com slash infinity. All right. So, all that, what do you got? What's your next take? Yeah, my next take is this. The Jaguars, and particularly Doug Peterson, need to get serious this offseason.

Ooh. My next take is a Jaguars take, too. All right, we hit. Are we, are we in concert here or is yours separate? Give me yours. And then, yeah, I think we're probably in concert. But, yeah, mine's a little different spin on it, but the same angle, I think. Okay.

So let's define where the Jaguars are at. The Jaguars, with the first overall pick, selected Trevor Lawrence. And in doing so, they got a guy who was supposed to be a generational talent of quarterback, right? And then there's been quite a lot of, like, where's this generation talent, it's year three of Trevor Lawrence, and he doesn't look the way that I thought it was going to look. And when I watched Trevor, I, firstly, like, the generational talent thing is always very frustrating. Like, he got gassed as a prospect. He deserved me the first overall pick, but he got gassed.

He got hyped up to, oh, next Peyton Manning. Like, that's never fair to a guy. When I watched Trevor Lawrence play, I very much struggle to be like, oh, this guy's the problem with the team. Like, I can't get there. Like, the arm talent, the movement skills, the pocket management, the the quiver of throws that he has. This is very clearly an NFL quarterback. I think there's certainly nits to pick. And I think if you've been watching Lawrence like a lot this season, you got to remember, this guy's had knee injury.

He's an ankle issue. He's off the concussion protocol. He had a shoulder injury in this game. Like he is playing through big injury this year. Because there are absolutely some Trevor plays that I see. And I'm like, dude, what the heck was that? I think he's really banged up. I think that has to be taking into account.

But altogether, I think Lawrence, even if you're a detractor, and you're like, he was the first of all. He's overrated. He's not that good. He very clearly, to me, me gets over the bar of like, this is an NFL quarterback that you can win some games. This is a solid NFL start. This is an NFL starting quarterback.

I think he's a lot better than that, but I think he clears that bar. All right. Well, now you have it. You got the thing. You have a starting quarterback on a rookie contract. And no, it's not the Brock Purdy contract where he's making $800,000. But this is $10 million cap at this year. It's 11.7 next year.

And then it comes the fifth year option where he'll be around $20 million. You only have two years left of like definitely cheap Trevor Lawrence. Then if you do an extension, you might be able to structure it the third, than the third year, 2026 is cheaper, whatever. But in general, we'll have a couple years left of cheap Trevor Lawrence.

The way this team is constructed right now is not how a team should be constructed when it has a rookie contract quarterback. From a play-calling perspective, and people might be like, Ben, you've talked about this too much. I don't care. From a play-calling perspective, this team does not help its quarterback.

Trevor Lawrence sits back there in a five-man pocket ruling out full field progressions, throw into Elijah Cooks, Elijah Cooks looked okay, throwing to Jamal Agnew and Luke Farrell and Tim Jones and Christian Kirk's injured, Zay Jones is injured. Guess what, welcome to the NFL.

Wide receivers get hurt. Zay Jones got hurt and it dramatically crippled this passing attack. If that happens to you, there is something wrong with your passing attack. If Zay Jones is that integral to your passing game, you have an issue. And I wrote about them earlier this year,

okay, you got to push the ballboard down the field, They did it for a couple weeks. They lost it. They gave it up. Running game-wise. The first round pick on Travis Ety-N. Third-round pick on Tank-Bigsby, who, by the way, has been benched,

has been replaced by Darnas Johnson. Tank-Biggs-A. Second-round pick, Tank-Bigsby. He's like 62 or something. Running game, they do nothing. The Jaguars are facing third and longs at a high rate over the last six weeks of football. And this has been a bad third-down team

because they have poor designs. They don't have any beaters. They have no, like, okay, You know, we're just going to run this rubber out. It's going to go to Evan Ingram, and he's going to pick up the first down. It's all read out. It's all post-nap processing. They put the world on lowers the shoulders.

And he is by an offensive line that I think is like, fine, but he has hurt. Help the guy. Christian Kirk's gone. He's our slot dude. Figure it out. Welcome to the league, man. I cannot get over how this offense lost Zay Jones and now Christian Kirk and they're like, well, there's nothing to be done.

Yes, there is. This is the league, man. And that brings us to the personnel, right? because they spent picks on weapons this year. Tank Biggs being Brent Strange. They spent picks on weapons. These guys don't play. It's their third string back

and their third string tight end. That's who they picked in the second round on day two this year. Look at the, you have the Trayvon Walker selection and I think Devin Lloyd's been playing better. Okay, whatever. The Devin Lloyd selection,

the Kalaun Chaston selection, they've just been burning top picks and not all of that was Trent Balkey, but a good portion of that was Trend bulky. And bulky had a lot of cabs face to work with Trevor Lawrence on a rookie deal. And all together, it's been Christian Kirk and it's been Roy Robertson Harris

and it's been Devon Hamilton and it's been Cam Robinson extension that Evan Ingram. It's been a lot of fine players but I do not see this team as a bang for your buck team. The Darius Williams contract I think looks nice. The rest of them are pretty worried. And Foyosate-a-Lu-Con, man. They have so many guys they've given money to

and they've given draft capital to who come in at or below expectation. And then because the coaching staff isn't elevating, you're just stuck here with everybody being like, oh, Lawrence isn't that good. I don't know, man. I look at Lawrence and I look at the other 52 players on the roster in the way it's built. And there's stuff Lawrence can do better.

Like I said, he's been banged up. There's absolutely fault in his game. But I can't sit here and be like, man, Lawrence underwhelming. It's really why the Jaguars are where they're at right now. I can't buy that argument. I simply can. So to me, Doug Peterson, who Doug experienced a push and pull and a conflict with the GM in Philadelphia and the control over the roster and whatever.

Doug's kind of been through this. Doug needs to get his chest. big in the off season and say like, hey, like, front office-wise, like, we need to be better in terms of the talent that we bring in than we've been. The standard needs to be raised. And then the offense is his responsibility. I know he gave up play calling. I think that that was a mistake. But fundamentally, office coach, buck stops with you on offense. And design-wise, this is really, it is so unnecessarily 404 level offense. It is so, just, there are so many easier wins across the league everywhere offensively, so much more meat on the bone of the running game.

which were meat on the bone in the RPO game and the designed passing the screen game and just there's so many easy ways to pick up yards in the league and this team is interested in none of it. And that's very frustrating to me. And so the Lawrence thing, I think the Jaggs is going to be a highly criticized and a highly scrutinized team this off season

and in particular Lawrence, what he delivers over the next two years. But I think we cannot do the Lawrence conversation without widening the scope and seeing what the Jags had been these last two seasons and saying, all right, from the top, there should be changes in how this team has run in order for them to be successful on Lawrence's dwindling rookie deal.

Yeah, I mean, I was thinking, about this earlier. They might be my most disappointing team in the NFL this season and I know that sounds wild to say given that they're 8 and 7 and in first place in the AFC South. My take was Trevor Lawrence is right. I don't know if you saw his

quotes Ben after that game. 3012 loss to the bucks. I mean it was like they didn't even show up to this game. They're down 20 nothing at halftime in a game that you know like they need this game. This is week 17. This isn't like week three. You're figuring things out.

via ESPN, Trevor Lauren said, it looks like we don't even practice. We look lost. No sense of urgency. The list goes on and on. Three routes all right next to each other. How are we still doing this? Sorry, I forgot about that note.

I wanted to say it. Sorry, to cut it in. You go. Yeah, no, that's good. He says, I feel like we have good weeks of preparation and we're prepared going into games and then something happens on game day the last month where it just falls apart.

And like when he said the thing about, it looks like we don't even practice. I'm like, it's honest exactly how I feel. watching this football team play. I mean, they just weaken and, like, you know, we're trying to talk ourselves into them in the middle of the season. Hey, they figured some things out. Again, yeah, you said you wrote that, you know, you wrote that piece.

And then that stuff's getting implemented in the weeks ahead. And they're, all right, okay, they figured it out. But it hasn't sustained for a long period of time. I mean, last two weeks, first of all, they've lost four in a row. They've been outscored the last two weeks by the Ravens and the Bucks, 53 to 19. This is a team with a minus 12 point differential. And that offense, 15th in DVOA, 15th in success rate.

Like, I like Doug Peterson. I think he's a good coach. I think the, yeah, I think the issues are twofold. I think one absolutely personnel. When you're watching a game in week 17 for a playoff team and you don't know who the guy is, who they're completing passes to, which was my experience watching this team on Sunday, that's not good. And again, yes, they've had injuries.

Christian Kirk, Say, Jay Jones, I get it. But wait, these are the guys. These are key third downs. These are the guys they're going to. Elijah Cooks, multiple big third down conversions. Elijah Cooks. I had no idea. Yeah.

I'm like, wait, what? Who is this tall guy with long arms? He made a couple of plays there. But that should not be the case. When this is a team, I thought Trevor Lawrence could take that leap into MVP contender status. I thought the Jaguars were a sleeper Super Bowl team in the NFL, and it hasn't happened. And I think you framed the Lawrence thing correctly.

I don't like, again, it kind of goes back to the purdy thing where, you know, we like a quarterback, and then whenever they don't play well, we make every other excuse. But I think you're right, like, it's not all on Trevor Lawrence. There's no doubt about it. Having said that, he has not improved this year. He has not made the leap that I wanted him to make. And maybe, again, maybe that's injury related. He's dealt with a bunch of injuries, but he's got 12 fumbles this year. Third most in the NFL. He's fifth in most turnover worthy plays. This is a coach and quarterback. granted that I agree with the personnel stuff, this is a coach and a quarterback

that I felt like could overcome a lot of those shortcomings and elevate the rest of the roster and be bringing up guys that are like, I have no idea who this person is, but they're playing well and they're figuring out and they're scheming things up and they have not done that this year. So to me, I mean, I don't have a lot of hope for them here.

I know they're still in the driver's seat in the AFC South. They've got Carolina. They've got Tennessee to finish out the season, but now Trevor Lawrence is dealing with this shoulder injury and nothing they've done this season suggests you should trust them. I mean, the numbers are good on defense. I don't think that's a very good, great defense by any means.

I think the numbers overrate how good they are. I would not trust them against an above average offense down the stretch here. And so I see this as an underachieving team that is really facing a big offseason. So I think you nailed it. I think the issues are twofold. I think one, the personnel is not good enough. They haven't built it well. and they need to figure out in the offseason,

pour resources into that offense, figure out the offense, give them answers, make it a top five offense, and then worry about the defense. They've spent so many resources on that defense for it to not even be, again, that good of a defense.

I don't care what the stats say, that that to me is another issue they've had here. So yeah, they've got, I don't expect them to surprise down the stretch, and I think they face a big offseason. Yeah, I think right, like the Lawrence conversation, I think, like, we can do a, expectations of the first overall pick, top-ton quarterback.

We can do all that. That's not very helpful for me right now. What's helpful is, like, I think anybody who says, oh, I've watched Lawrence and you can't win with a guy who plays like this, I think they're outside of their melon. So, like, once you establish that, then you have to look at what is around him and say, okay, why do I feel like this team is overall, overall disappointing? And it's like, it's just okay.

Like, they have spent money and they have spent capital. And overall, like, just in vacuums, when you look at the contributions of guys like Christian Kirk and Tangs, Bigby and E. who like, I think EGN is great in the fantasy community. I know they love them there, but like from a on-field perspective, like, a lot of bad mistakes behind the line of scrimmage. Like, there's just, there's, there's players here where I'm just, I need more from you to contribute to a winning organization.

I think that's on those players on the front office that acquired them, but then also on the, on the coaching staff that, to develop them. When Doug arrived, everybody on offense got better fast, right? like urban out dug in fixed a lot of issues. Since then, straight lines, steady lines. There's been very little development

on the offensive side of the ball from that talent. I think even defensively, I think there's been development. Devon Lloyd, Darius Williams, Alondry, Cisco, some of these guys have gotten better. This defensive performance

from the Jaguars, this defensive season is the one that you talk about. It's like, right, do great on offense, be good enough on defense. It should have been good enough. And you can make a run.

Right. Yeah. This defensive performance, That's the one you were talking about. Offensively, they didn't hold up their end of the bargain. I think Andrew has a lot to do with that. And I think that, but I think that coaching staff and personnel is a big part of it as well.

By the way, also, you know, as I'm just looking at this, this conversation is another feather in the cap of Lamar Jackson's MVP candidacy when you look at it. I mean, he loses Mark Andrews and I like safe flowers. I like Godell Beckham Jr. Shod Bateman has had some moments. Gus Edwards? Likely.

I mean, no one's, who's looking at that support? in cast saying, wow, you know, he's loaded. No, they're not lifting him. He's lifting them. They're fourth and offensive DVOA. They're seventh in passing. They're first in rushing. And it's because the quarterback has done a good job of elevating the players around him.

So I do think that matters. Well, you know, the quarterback discussion, MVP discussion, we get into statistics and film and narrative and all that. But when you look at it from that perspective, that is a big feather in his cap for sure. would say, yeah, and another feather in the cap for Todd Monkin, who's the O-C there. And Monkin's first year, O-C, when I was talking about where my easy wins, where are my designer plays on third down, I was thinking a lot about Monkin. Fourth and goal, Gus Edwards' touchdown, a little motion to full house.

They got Nick Boas's head spinning. Boas was unblocked on that play, and they had him jumping at shadows, right, with all the potential blockers and runners in the mesh point. The Zayflower's touchdown, little ghost screen, right? You go, take the screen, go the scenes, run to the flat, right? Get two Niners, defenders in the same area. These ones, this designer plays. Like, I'm still on a third and five to put five in the constant level of our

solve a problem for you. But also, like, I'm going to, I'm going to pull my own way. I'm not just going to be like, oh, Trevor Lawrence solved problems for me. No, I'm going to scheme some stuff up so that way you don't have to do it every single down. Monk and I thought, I think also, as they've lost Keat and Mitchells, they've lost Mark Andrews, has been a problem solver for them. And then when it's not there for him, I mean, Nelson Aguilar,

guy anybody could have, he's making the, he's making, the right play on the scramble drill is coached on. And that's a touchdown. So again, that's why those things matters. All right. Let's take one more break. We'll come back with Soul X last take and then the extra point taken. All right.

We are back on extra point taken since that was my, was that my second take? No, that was my third take. Okay. So we're getting your third take. And then we're coming back with the extra point taken. What do you got? Well, listen, Shil, my third take is brought to by Hyundai. Hyundai, all right, is bring an extra point taken.

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It's just another way. Owning a Hyundai Tucson Limited. It's more convenient than ever. I'm literally looking out the window right now, looking at the Hyundai parked in the driveway. Shield, if the Detroit Lions get the one seed, they're winning the NFC and they're going to the Super Bowl. We like it?

Feel good about it? Oh, I don't agree. No. I said in the Niners conversation, they're still the best team in the NFC, and they're still going to represent the conference in the Super Bowl. If you make me pick right now with the possibilities and potential, okay, who gets the one seed, I'm still picking the Niners. However, the Detroit Lions secured the NFC North first divisional championship since 1993

when there were five teams in the division, by the way, not four, all right? For those you wondering, oh, what was Ben up to, 1993? Nothing. I didn't exist yet and I wouldn't exist for several years. All right? Yeah, me neither. It's been a long time since Detroit lines won the division. And when they won that game and locked down the division,

they released a video, all right? And I'm a sucker for a team. Get some good music going. Get some highlights, get some crunching hits in there. I'm a sucker for it. I admit, I'm a sucker for some Dan Campbell content too, right? I will be good for either one of those things. The Dan Campbell turn around, look at the back of the room,

read it out, when's the last? time we went a division, that hit, right? Like this, this, this team has a lot of internal belief. Okay, this team, I think is a, is a excellent culture team that knows how they are going to win games and follows the script and they stay on message, stay on point. They don't, they don't lose sight of the goal. They don't lose sight of their compass. They're going to, they're going to be to their identity. And that's how Dan Campbell has been. Now, Detroit Lions, okay, we talked about Jared golf, one seed, playing at home, playing in the dome, what have you. A lot of that was like theory two months ago.

And then they lost some games. Niners were looking great. Okay, whatever. Lions are out of the conversation. Well, lo and behold, she held Detroit Lions are 11 and 4. You know who else is 11 and 4? San Francisco 49ers.

You know who else 11th and 4? Philadelphia Eagles. We are coming down the mountain here with two games left. Now, Detroit has a game in Dallas that is a very big game in Week 17. And then they are home against Minnesota. They just beat. They need to win both of those games.

They need and they also still need a 9th. They have the, excuse me, they need, they need an Eagles loss because the Eagles have the tiebreaker over them. Niners-wise, I think they also need a Niners loss to the Rams. Liners are going to beat the commanders. But in general, the lines, the window has creaked open. It was pretty much closed. It has creaked open for the Lions to win now, the conference. If they do, get the buy, all right? Divisional, wild card round. Divisional round, just get the worst team come through. Get the five-seed Cowboys who they will have just beaten a couple weeks previous. Get the six seed Rams, Matthew Stafford, back in the building shield.

Get the seven seed Seahawks who, like Pete Carroll's beating them the last like six times. Maybe that would be bad. But as you get a low seed, dodge the Niners, conference championship game at home. Again, I get San Francisco. I don't think they'd be favored in that game, but you just need to get lucky ones. You just need to get one. If you get, if you get that by and you're able to handle. business at home. Home field advantage is massive

for Jared Gough. It is massive for this team. That is a loud stadium. If the Lions get the one seed, I'm putting it in writing now, cement and chisel it in stone. I don't think they're going to get the one seed. I think the Niners are going to get it. If they get the one seed, I'm betting on the Lions to come out of the conference.

I think that by, that level, that extra rest, this level of team belief and this home field advantage in particular for Jared Gough is enough cumulatively that whoever they draw division around a conference championship round. I think division round they're going to come out hot. All right. Dan Campbell first playoff game as a one seat at home, they're going to score 21

on the first two drives somehow. I don't even know. Conference championship game, that's the squirrelly one. I will be, however, if we get there, I will be betting on the Lions, taking the Lions to win that and go represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. And I'm, I'm so positive that the Lions content team will have something great for me then, too. They'll soccer me and it'll hook me in and I'll believe even more than I do now. Lions one seed, Lions NFC championship. here it comes. I appreciate your ability to go through that entire thing and not mention the

other side of the football for the Lions. That's a nice job out of you. Never heard of it. I think the defense that just gave up 400 and 11 passing yards to Nick Mullins. I don't think Kyle Shanahan's going to be shaking in his boots to face that. I don't think that Prescott's going to be worried about facing that. Matthew Stafford, I don't think he's going to be all that concern to face that defense. And so the thing we talked about with the Ravens, they can win in different ways, does not apply to the Detroit line.

No. They can win in one way. And it's a very good way. And it's a very good unit. And kudos to them. Awesome. I love the content as well. I like this team a lot.

I like their offense indoors. There's no doubt of these young players. I mean, if you're just watching the light, oh, my God, I get to watch Shamir Gibbs for the next three, four years. I get to watch Sam Leporta for hopefully the next eight or nine years. I'm on Ross St. Brown. I mean, this offensive, there's so much to like. That offense indoors is going to be tough to deal with. There's no doubt about it.

They're going to play really well if they're indoors in the playoffs. The other side of the ball, they don't have it. We thought they turned a quarter at times earlier this season, really from the middle of the season to now it's been very up and down against a good offense. I do not trust them. Now, they could still whip. They create a couple turnovers, maybe do something on special teams, maybe win a shootout, all those things are in play.

Can they do that twice in the divisional round? And then in the NFC championship game against likely two very good offenses. I have a hard time seeing that. So I'm not there with you. I like the take. It's a good take. It's a fun take. I like the Lions.

I like their offense. I like watching them play football. I just do not trust them nearly enough defensively. Although they are getting healthy, I will say they are getting healthy. So they get some guys back here down the stretch. but I still don't trust them defensively against some of the top offenses in the NFC. So there you go.

So yeah, I'm seeing conflicting, like I've got conflicting things on if the lions or the Eagles would have the one seat in the event of a Niners loss and Lions and Eagles went out. I thought it was if the Niners lose the game and the Lions go undefeated over the next two, the Lions get the one seed. Someone is arguing that it was Eagles.

It's strength of schedule. I fight a confusing. I'm pretty sure it's lions went out, Niners lose a game, and the Lions get the one seed. So please forgive me if I, if I got that one wrong, I always get bamboozled by these things. Defensively.

James Houston's coming back. Oh, here we go. A little pass rush help. It'd be good. Johnson Gardner Johnson. All right? Not that safety play was the issue at all with this team. Ted Johnson,

you know, playmaker and his ball magnet interceptions. Listen, can they defend the pass? No. But if they score a lot of points. I believe. I am imbiving belief.

I'm drunk on belief in the Detroit Lions. I find the idea of Jared Goff back in the Super Bowl, objectively hilarious. On a contract year, no less, I find that very funny. I think every piece of Dan Campbell content before a conference championship and or a league championship game would be amazing.

And I also, as a person who will be attending the Super Bowl, I would love to see a 45 to 42 game. That'll work for me. I'm into the fireworks. It's good for content, as you would say. So, yes, I acknowledge that defensively, the lions are not good. However, get a pick.

Amon Ross St. Brown, three touchdowns. We're going to be okay. The one aspect of this NFC playoff picture. Now, it doesn't get to where you wanted to go with the lions in the one scene, but I'm looking at it. You know, I love it if the season ended today, So, Lack. Number three, Detroit Lions. first round hosting number six Los Angeles Rams the coach Jared Gogg who threw you under the bus Matthew Stafford going back to Detroit.

Oh baby, that one's got some juice. So let's keep that. Stafford jogs out of the tunnel for a home Lions playoff game. Boo or cheer? What's happening? What would I do if I were a Lions fan or what do the Lions fans? No, what's going to happen? What are the Lions fans going to do?

I think Lions fans probably cheer. You know better than me. You live in Michigan. There are nice people out there. I think they would standing ovation him. I legit think, I think when he comes out of the tunnel, I think they would stand and they would clap and they would cheer for 30 seconds.

I think they would go nuts for him. I think what's the ball snap, they're going to go to business. But they have a great respect for Stafford, and Stafford is a great respect for them. And I think, like, I would love to see it because I think what's, I would be so interested to hear what Stafford said

in the week before the game. But I think Stafford would be legitimately thrilled that he has a chance to play against the Detroit, Lions in that stadium for a playoff game. He would be so happy for that team that they're in that environment. So like just for the heartwarmingness of it, I want it so badly. Sadly, the Lions will not be playing in the wildcard round because they're getting the bye, baby, one seed Lions. Here we go. Shiel, the NFC champion Detroit Lions are brought to you by Hyundai, as well as actual point taken. That's also brought you by Hyundai. Get complimentary class leading

Blue Link Plus with your Hyundai Tucson Limited to make things more convenient than ever. Lock or unlock the doors, set the temp, locate your car, and more all from your phone. Learn more about the new Tucson and Blue Link Plus at HyundaiUSA.com. Call 562-3-1-4-6-0-3 shield for complete details. There you go. All right. Finish now with the extra point taken. My extra point taken.

Benjamin is that. I know you're already in draft season. You're doing draft pod. Are you doing draft pods weekly now? I love a draft pod. We were off for Christmas. We'll be back in January. Okay.

There you go. Listen, So Lex, already grinding the draft film. The top of this draft is once again, shaping up perfectly. I was nervous a month. You know me. I like the offseason better than the end season. A month ago, I thought, oh, you know what?

The Cardinals are too good. They're not going to be the one or two seed. They're getting Kyler Murray back. They're going to luck into some wins. Well, that has not happened. Right now, we have the bears by way of the Panthers with the top pick at 2 and 13. We've talked about that scenario a million times. I think there's no way they're sticking with Justin Fields.

other people think maybe there is a way, whatever, there's intrigue there. If they don't stick with him, he's getting traded. I get to talk about fake Justin Fields' trades in January and February Ponds. What could make me happier? All right, love that. But now, Penn, these 3 and 12 Cardinals team with the second pick, I need to keep them in that spot.

I don't want the Patriots in there where they're just going to sit there, draft a quarterback, boring. I don't need the commanders in there, just going to sit there, take a pick. Boring. I need some juice. And the Cardinals give me some juice. Because if the Cardinals sit there with that second pick in the draft, then we get the intrigue.

Then we get the, do they stick with Kyler Murray? Or do they draft Caleb Williams or Drake May? If they trade Kyler Murray is their market for Kyler Murray. Will they be willing to eat that money on Kyler Murray's contract? Who's interested in Kyler Murray? What is Kyler Murray worth in the open market? What teams are interested in Kyler Murray? Or do they keep Kyler Murray and trade down?

Trade down. Wait, other teams can trade up to two and get Kaled Williams or Drake Bay? Who's doing that? What are they giving up? So many times. So thank you, Arizona Cardinals, for not winning more games, for stinking it up. Just stink it up the last two games here. Do not blow this.

For my personal enjoyment of off-season content, Bears by way of Panthers at number one. Cardinals. Nice. At number two. That is the ideal scenario for my offseason content. No one screwed up. So there you go.

That's my extra point taken. I very much agree. I am so positive because of the amount of leverage that's on this moment for the bears, they got the first overall pick in a trade. Such a great thing. Trade for a future first. It ends up being one overall. Unbelievable.

And because Justin Fields is playing well-ish, now, right? He's been good, good track for him, best stretch of his career. Because there's two quarterbacks at the top, Caleb and Drake made, there's just so many leverage points. There's so many decisions that were made. I'm so positive that they're sure this up. I'm certain of it. And not screw this up like

they should do this. Like Ben thinks they should do this and they end up doing something else. Just whatever it is they choose to do, even if it's what I would have done, it will not work. There's too much, there's too many places for this to go wrong. Like, oh, they draft Caleb and he's good, but it

out Fields is really good with the Steelers. Oh, they talk themselves into May over Caleb, and then Caleb is amazing and May is terrible. They drafts Caleb over May, and May is amazing, and Caleb's terrible. Something happens in this process that ruins Bears' fans enjoyment of football for the next decade. I lived in Chicago for college,

and no enough Bears fans to know, it's coming. All right? That reality is becoming more and more crystal to be with every good Justin Fields games that followed. I agree that the Kyler thing is interesting. The Cardinals of two, here's the problem. him. Marvin Harrison is such an easy pick for them. He's such an easy pick. They, they so desperately need a Marvin Harrison, and he's so

ludicrously talented, that they should, and I'm sure they will try to move off of two and let a team who wants to draft the quarterback come get it if they commit to Kyler, like in those universes, I'm sure they'll try to move off of two, but it's not like they're going to stay at two and draft like Trayvon Walker. Like, you know, like, you know, Derek Stingley, he went three overall. Will Anderson went three overall, right? They're not going to end with that guy. They're not going to end up with Marvin.

Like Marvin is all that in a bag of chips. He is as billed. And so that's such a big need for them. It would help out Kyler a ton. And so that's the part that loses a little bit of the juice from me off the Cardinals. I did like Patriots at two. I like that. My Patriots 24 take was, you know, I like to sit on that one.

Chargers in the top five potentially is great. I love that because you know that's going to be a nightmare of a they're to take a guard. Commanders early. These commanders games, dude, the Sam Howell plays for three quarters, nearly loses us the game. We put Jacoby Brissette in and almost,

it's such good content, dude. It's amazing. They as a quarterback team interest weeks, they have such good wide receivers. There's a lot that's fun at the top. I'm just going to listen. As you were talking, I had some disagreeing thoughts,

but I thought, She'll see when your team content like me, you're looking at it. You got pods to fill in February, in March, in April. I'm just going to sit on. I'll say, you know, we may have a knockdown, drag-out argument over the Arizona Cardinals and what they should do at some point.

Oh, I'm all already looking to it. Like the second week of February, Super Bowl's over, big off-season questions, extra point-taking. We'll be right here. All right. So there you go. Thank you to Ben Solac. Thank you to Christopher Sutton for producing. Thank you to Eduardo Ocampo for his video production, additional production supervision by

Connor and Evans and Arjuna Ram Gopal. No midweek duel threat this week. So next up, we'll be Slack and I again. After I missed last week, I got to figure out how badly I got smoked in our contest and look ahead to week 17 with our pick. So we'll be back on Friday with that show. Until then, everyone, have a great week and we'll talk to you soon. Must be 21 plus and present in select states. Fan duel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino,

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