The Ringer NFL Show - Odell Beckham Jr. Signs With the Ravens and Who Will Have the No. 3 Pick at the 2023 NFL Draft? | Extra Point Taken

Episode Date: April 10, 2023

Odell Beckham Jr. has finally found a home, in Baltimore, after sitting out the 2023 season because of a torn ACL. The big question remains: Will the disgruntled Lamar Jackson be his QB when the 2023 season kicks off? Also, the draft is oh so close, and rumors are heating up that the Arizona Cardinals will be trading the no. 3 pick. Who are the teams looking to make the jump up to no. 3? Could it be the Titans? Or a dark horse team that had a good run toward the end of 2023? Hosts: Sheil Kapadia and Ben Solak Producer: Cliff Augustin Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, my name is Kevin Clark. I'm the host of a new football podcast called Slow Newsday. I want to tell you about it. On Mondays, Lindsay Jones and I will recap the weekend in football that was, as well as look ahead to what's next. On Wednesday, the normal Slow Newsday, the thing you've been watching for years, current players, current coaches, current analysts talking about the football world. And on Friday, it's a wild card. Could be some college football. Could be more pro stuff.

It's a video podcast so you can watch it on Spotify or listen to it wherever you get your podcasts. Follow on Spotify. It's slow newsday. Welcome to Extra Point Taken on the ringer NFL feed. I'm Shield Kapadia, joined by Ben Solak. Ben, you know, usually we come up with some type of idea for the show. We go that route. This time, like an hour before the show I messaged you. I'm like, I don't, you know, I think idea number two might be better than idea number one. Let's pivot. So it'll be a little spontaneuity here. How are you feeling about it? Spontinuity? Yeah. That's your middle name. name. It's spontaneity. Oh, all right, whatever. I thought you were doing, I thought you were doing like a riff on like the word new in spontaneous. I was like, I don't know, this is, it just means what it means. I don't know how to pronounce many words correctly. So, yes, it's, uh, correct me. But if you feel like Ben's wrong and I'm right, then go ahead and, uh, attack him, uh, as you would do anyway.

It's always, no, it's always a great day when Adam Schafter decides what the topic of the podcast is going to be. Thanks, Adam. Appreciate it. A little quick morning change. Thank you, Adam. That was nice. All right. So we're going to lead off the show talking a little Odell Beckham, Jr.

And then we're going to get into, as Ben alluded to, six teams have inquired per Adam Schaefter with the Arizona Cardinals about trading up for the third overall pick in the upcoming draft. We're going to have a little fun with that. Which team is it going to be? Which team should it be? And who's like a wild card that's kind of lurking? Just saying, hmm. What? No one's thinking we're going to do this, but maybe we will do this. So we will get into all of that. But let's start off with the news of at least this morning. Odell Beckham Jr.

Signs with the Ravens, a one year, $15 million deal that can go up to $18 million. Odell Beckham Jr. 30 years old. Of course, tore his ACL in the Super Bowl a couple years ago. Did not play at all. Last year, how are you feeling about this, Ben? I've seen like a wide. takes kind of on both sides, I feel like, with this one. Some people very excited that maybe Lamar Jackson, if he still plays for the Ravens, has a guy like Godell Beckham Jr., and others saying, how could they pay $15 million for a guy who is 30 and did not even play in the NFL last year? Where do you stand on this move by the Ravens?

So, yeah, I think that while I largely agree with, like, why are you paying this much money for a player who didn't play last year? and you don't need to. I also don't mind in mid-April when like, you know, obviously the Ravens had the Lamar price tag non-withstanding, but they clearly feel like they're going to be able to get him to play on the non-exclusive franchise tag this year. Like, they're kind of trying to account for that money.

You're not spending, you know, if you paid Odell 8 instead of 15, you're not really using that $7 million. You don't expect to be using that at any stage. So I don't mind just being like, okay, what's the figure of the Jets, don't want to go over? 15 million? we would like to pay you more than $15 million and just never letting O'Dell get to New York.

Like that doesn't bother me too much. I think if you were handing that money to O'Dell in day one of free agency, I'd been like, chill out, but we're like a month removed from free agency starting. So I don't mind the overpay too much in that regard. So that's number one. Number two.

Odell's still pretty good. Like I think O'Dell is O'Dell top 15 receiver? No. Is he clearly better than Nelson Agalore? who's the current Ravens wide receiver two? Yes. And I think that that alone to me is like, okay, the Ravens got a player.

I don't mind the price tag too much and he improved the roster. So like overall, I think good move. I think it's the solid move designation. I didn't go and run to Vandal Sportsman go over win total for the Baltimore Ravens. I didn't go over,

more Jackson passing out. I don't think O'Dell's going to rip off a thousand-yard season and play 16 games. I think that you're running the risk of him getting banged up. I think that he's an older receiver is going to have, you know, like ligament issues. And I don't think that he's going to necessarily get the volume, even if Lamar plays. Like, we shouldn't get too far over our skis with like, okay, name recognition. But I do think he's a better receiver than pretty much everybody they got on the roster. Maybe Rashad Baton and not with Cludey, but Bateman's also coming off of injury.

And I think that, like, while it's a high price tag, we're not at the stage where I really like care about a few millions here or there. You know what I'm saying? So overall, get Ben Solac thumbs up. Samph of approval. Good job, Ravens. I'm kind of with you. I didn't have a strong feel.

Like, I was surprised people. I had such strong feelings about it. I know. It's jacked up. Yeah. I guess because it's April 10th and, you know, there's not a lot of non-draft stuff going on. So when there's a move, everybody has to react. I was basically in the camp of I don't think I would have done this move, but I don't think

It's like a wild, you know, this isn't going to prevent them from, like, doing anything else. It's one year, 15 million, you know, when I do the free agency rankings on my spreadsheet, as I'm doing that exercise, I put, like, projected salaries that I think each guy is going to get paid based on the market, based on deals last year, based on recent deals. And I thought Odell Beckham was in line for like a $13 million a year contract. Like, I had him among my top 20 free agents. So I didn't think that that was that wild, and it's one year. I mean, it's not like, you know, they're paying him guaranteed bunny for three years down the road.

They'll use some void years to bring down the cap number in 2023. And I'm with you. I like their past catching options a lot better when it looks like Beckham, Bateman, Andrews, Aguilar, Duvernate. Like, you have more options than the guys they were trotting out there last year. So, again, this all, we all know Lamar is kind of the story there. But if he comes back and they somehow are. able to work things out and you have Todd Munkin and now you've upgraded the past catching group a little bit. Then there's at least a little bit of excitement. I did think it was

interesting, Jeff Zrebeck of the Athletic, who I think is one of the best beat writers in America does an awesome job covering that team. He called it a little desperate and was like, is this a bit of a PR move? You know, like the Ravens have just had like from a PR standpoint. This has been like a nightmarish offseason. Even their pre-draft press conference, the awkwardness of someone uttering a reporter uttering the name, Lamar Jackson, and then jumping in saying, no, no, no, this is a draft-only press conference because this is a non-ravensy type move. Like, they're normally the team that waits and gets like the Justin Houston on the cheap deal or the Callais Campbell on the cheap deal.

Now, they've taken some swings in the past. Don't get me wrong, Marcus Williams, Earl Thomas, but this didn't feel like a move that the Ravens would typically make. So I am a little bit interested in that aspect. it. But overall, yes, is it more money than I think you would need, you should have needed to pay for Odell Beckham at this stage in the offseason? Yeah, I mean, he's making $4 million more than any other wide receiver signed for in the off season. At the same time, he was good with the Rams. I mean, I know it wasn't last year. It was the year before. But like on that Super Bowl run,

48 catches for 593 yards and seven touchdowns in 12 games. Like if nothing else, he's a really good, you know, number two wide receiver with the kind of offense you want to play. You have other options there. So I'm okay with it. So my bottom line is I don't think I would have done that move if I were the Ravens, but I don't really have a problem with the Ravens making that move. Fencing, as you would call me. No, I like a good fence set.

Nothing wrong with a fence. Again, as April 10th, this is like the 45th wide receiver deal sign of free agency. It's all right to be on both sides. Yeah, I think that, I'm trying to remember. You made a really good point. Now I forget what it was. Anyway, Ravens are great. Oh, yeah, yeah.

The other thing with like the price, yeah, the other thing with the price tag is, slap four void years on that deal. I'm going to end up to deal with this for next season, you know what I'm saying? Oh, like, oh, Ravens Caps paste for 2023. No, all the money is in a signing bonus, and all of it's going to get defrayed over void years. And so if they extend him because he's fine, then they can hold that cost off for a little bit.

If he leaves for a year, then he hits them for $13 million dead cap next year, which, like, again, You feel amazing about that? No. If Odell is leaving next year and you're still done with this wide receiver room and like Lamar is gone,

you've got bigger problems. You're not going to be like, oh man, that 13 million we spent on Odell, this is the worst. Where do we stand on Lamar Odell face time screenshots? I think.

That's the most interesting part of this thing, I think. That's what I'm saying. I thought you were going to open with that. If I know my man, Sheal Kapadi and I know Sheal, when he saw that FaceTime, made a little light bulb went off.

And now we got a wide receiver quarterback face time. I'm happening here. Interesting. Very interesting. Yeah, I mean, he's because we've said before, it's felt like Lamar's teammates have supported him. I don't know if O'Dell during this process is like, hey, is Lamar Jackson going to be the quarterback or not? Probably not, because he's probably like 15 million. Yeah, that's better than I get anywhere else. I don't really care who's playing quarterback. But that FaceTime was interesting. It's just sort of this weird story, Lamar Jackson, that continues to kind of hang over the NFL, where we feel like we're probably

not going to get any answers, any resolutions to it. after the draft, I would think, at this point. And maybe not even then, as we've alluded to before, it could drag on to the regular season. So we'll see what happens there. All right, that's OBJ. Now, let's get to the other, the exercise today. Adam Schepter's tweet.

Now, we all probably could have assumed that teams were calling the Arizona Cardinals about trading up to the number three pick. They've got Kyler Murray. They're not going to draft a quarterback this year. We assume that trading down was a high likelihood for the Arizona Cardinals, but still, I like the spice of saying

at least six teams have inquired about it, so now we can all say, oh, all right, well, who would those six teams be? So here's the exercise. Ben and I have each picked out, really in the seconds leading up to the show, if we're being honest.

The team we think is most likely to trade up to number three. The team we think should trade up to number three, and then the wild card. Because I want it to get a little spicy. You know, who's the team? Nobody. is talking about. So I believe I'm first, Benjamin, because I have the extra point taken this week.

And all right here, I'm going to do something I've never done here on extra point taken. I'm getting the timer out on my phone because I feel like we've devoted too much time to talking about this team. And we really should not. And I think it's mostly been my fault. But it is the team that I think will trade up to number three. I'm setting a five minute timer. We're not allowed to talk about them for more than five minutes. We move on to your point. in five minutes. Okay. What if I have them?

Okay, I don't. We're good. We're good. Listen, I haven't thought this out. I mean, listen, this is spontaneity, as I said. This is watching, I do every, I do every podcast, like almost entirely off the cuff and watching you have to do a show off the cuff here is killing me. I do plenty off the cuff, but listen, usually for this show in the off season, we need

some kind of planning here. I can't just come on and say, what are your three, I could. We'll do that. We'll do that for the next time. That'd be a good show. That'd be a good show. Timer was paused. Timer resumed.

I think the Colts are going to trade up to number three. They are the team. We've talked about them in recent weeks. This is like the one team where you could say their GM's job might be on the line based on whether he can land a quarterback or not in those three days of the draft. Now, maybe they have plan B up their sleeve if they don't get the quarterback during the draft. But if you read any of Jim Mersey's quotes, he wants this team. They're not in, hey, let's be patient and kick the can down the

road and wait till next year. It's like, okay, a lot of things we've done have not worked out. Right now, we need to add a quarterback. We would like to add a quarterback in the draft, grow with them, play them on their rookie contract. And so them moving from four to three, I think, is a trade that could make a lot of sense because the Colts aren't going to have to give up a ton, I would say just based on past draft precedent, maybe something like a second and something else to move up from four to three. The Cardinals, if they only have to move down one spot, whoever they want, Will Anderson, whoever, they can still do that.

They could trade down again if they need to. The Colts, I feel like, don't want to take that huge swing at quarterback, but if that's all they're giving up to make sure, let's say, they get their guy in Anthony Richardson, then I think they would be the team most likely to do that. What do you think about the Colts as an option? So my thing is this. Three minutes and 12 seconds on the clock, by the way. I definitely, I'm positive the Colts called.

I'd put the whole bank down on the type of the Colts called. We have the report from Adam Schaefter being that six teams have called the Cardinals about pick three per league sources, which, man, this has just been a great year for like utter transparency of what's going on. Just the Cardinals telling Adam Schuster. Get your offers in. Yeah, right now, get your offers in. We have so many calls. We're inundated.

Are the voicemails full? Please, please stop calling with the third overall. pick. Okay, so relax. But anyways, see, apparently six teams have called.

I definitely think the Colts are one of them. For the Cardinals, like, sight unseen, not knowing anything about offers and details, the team I am the least

likely to accept the offer from is, is the Colts. Like, I mean, like, unless they really, really, really, really love a guy

at three, like, they love a Will Anderson, they love a Jalen Carter, which there has been, yeah, right, there has been some

push to that effect. There's been some, like, like, Rappaport was on Pat McAfee show going, like, no one knows that the Cardinals are going to move the pick or they aren't. My read of, like, smoke and fire is that the Cardinals are absolutely moving the pick. My read is that the Cardinals don't have a defensive player at three they're over the moon about. And accordingly, like, why would I want to move back to four for, like, maybe a future second, right? If you go back and you look like the Middil Tribiskey trade, when the Bears moved up from three to two, they did that for a third round pick, a fourth round pick, and a future third round pick.

So you're not getting like a huge premium pick. And again, this is a new front office, a new head coach. Kyle and Murray is not expected to be healthy to start the season. You're looking at Caleb Williams and Drake may come out in 2024. You're probably going to reset this thing. I want future firsts. I want future first a lot more than I want Jalen Carter. And like they might disagree and really love one of those guys,

but that's not the sense I get. So while I think the Colts are a very clear should try to do it as best as they can team, I'm not sold they are the team that ends up doing it, not from their perspective, but from the Cardinals perspective. Where I think if the Cardinals have two offers and one is the Colts and the other is any other team? I think they're going to be more inclined to take the other teams, other teams picks. Yeah, it's a good point about the future first and also, yeah, how do they have the other players on their board ranked? Is there somebody, is there a cornerback? Is there one

of these other players, an offensive lineman in the top 10, top 15 where they're like, we don't see a lot of separation between these guys and a Jalen Carter or Will Anderson or whoever, you know, a team might take there at number three. So that makes a lot of sense. I love this. I mean, Oh, my last thing I wanted to say on the Colts, can they put, like, a moratorium on still referencing the Andrew Luck retirement? Like, Jim Ursay was still talking about this at the owner's meeting. Dude, it's been four years. It sucked.

It was unprecedented. I understand. It put you guys in a bad spot. You've had four years to figure something out. Like, is it going to be the year 2047, and they still have not done anything in the AFC? And they're like, well, you know what, Andrew Luck in, you know, 2019, he retired. And we're still kind of recovering from that.

I feel like they should just have something internally. where they're like in any public setting, we are not allowed to reference that as a reason but why we look a little bit like a train wreck of an organization right now. I'm so happy Ursa has stepped into the limelight because it means I'm no longer criticizing Chris Ballard, which I did for multiple years and Colts fans, like no fan base hates more than Colts fans.

But every time I wrote about Ballard, I had a paragraph where I was like, of course Andrew Luck retired, as they will remind you at every possible opportunity four and a half years later, as if nobody's ever recovered from anything like this before. Come on, fellas. What do you've done for me lately?

Let's go. All right, I love it. We went just over, but not that much over. That's all the time you get both. It was bits. Yeah, we talked cardinals. The jokes in. I want to get your pick, but I want to ask you two questions really quick about this topic.

No, number one is what you alluded to. Give me a percentage that the Cardinals trade down from number three. Like you said, you feel it's very likely. What's like the number you would have to put on it? I want you to know that whenever people tell me something's really likely, I always demand a percentage. And I hate the, it's such an important and helpful thing to do. Being on the other end of it is the worst thing ever. And I'm like, I can't believe I make people feel this way.

Honestly, I was just praising my daughter for this recently. She will ask a question. And if you're like, yeah, we'll do that later. She'll go, what time? Like when? And I'm like, that's good. She is ready for upper management, baby. Absolutely.

Yeah, put her in charge. 93. All right, I was going to go like 85. So I think we're in the same. It would be a surprise if they just stayed put and drafted a player at 3. And then the second question I wanted to ask you, because you came out with a fiery Anthony Richardson. I mean, when was that? Was that like a Friday nighters? All of a sudden, I'm looking at. No, that was Friday morning. I finished the charting in the morning morning. Okay. You like Anthony Richardson a lot. What are, my question is, what are, is the percentage that whoever trades up to number three, it's four?

Anthony Richardson and not another quarterback. So this you have to think about, well, could Richardson go one or two? Would a team trade up to three and draft will levis? They're surprise. Listen, sometimes there are surprises. I don't know. So what percentage chance is it that the team that trades up to three, it's for Anthony Richardson? I would say right now he is the small favorite to be the quarterback selected at three in the event of a tradeup.

However, that's because I think the consensus expectation right now is that C.J. Shrard and Bryce Young go in some order one and two. And with every day that we get closer to the draft, I think it is less likely that C.J. Shrard and Bryce Young are the first two picks. Oh, spicy. Bryce Young has become the betting favorite to go first overall at most major sports books. Fandall right now, I want to say it's like he and Strouder exactly the same. but Young has been moving towards being the favorite over the last two weeks. If this is a smoke screen, it's a really well-executed smoke screen. I'm of the inclination that the Panthers are taking Bryce Young at 1.

And there has been some clear messaging from Peter King and from Albert Breer and from Texans adjacent people that if Bryce Young is not available at 2, it's not like, all right, Tacey to just try out and go. Like that's not the Texans thought right now. There's a lot more uncertainty there. And accordingly, like, you could see like, you can still see Stroud 1, Bryce Young 2. You could still see Bryce Young 1, Stroud 2. But I think a legitimately likely outcome that's under discussed is Bryce Young 1 wildcard at 2.

And accordingly, Richardson is still the small favorite to be the pick at 3, but a player who has a very legitimate chance to be available at 3 is C.J. Stroud. And in the event that he's available at 3, I think he's the player that gets moved up for. The team that I have selected as the will trade for this pick is the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders and C.J. Stroud have both been very clear how they feel about one another. C.J. Stroud gave a quote in March where he was like, Raiders are great, man. They can tell everybody loved football. Big Raiders guy. Dave Z. Eagles gave him quotes about C.J. Stroud. There's a good. Yeah, good, Las Vegas and C.J. Stroud connection going on. They obviously signed the Jimmy Gropolo contract.

I've seen people of the opinion that the Gropolo contract is structured such that they don't have to aggressively go after a quarterback and accordingly they won't. But like Deshaun Reed of the athletic reporter that they were talking about moving up to one. You know what I'm saying? Like they are looking at all tradeups. I'm positive they've called about three.

If they really like Stroud, and that's something I'm inclined to believe. I think they really like Stroud. And he makes it past the first two. I think they're throwing whatever cherry on top the Cardinals want and they're going to go get him at three. If he's not, I think it becomes a little bit more dicey, but I could still see them moving up for Stroud.

Or I can still see the moving up for Richardson. And then you brought up Levice, they've also been connected to Levis multiple times during this process. I think they like Levis as well. And so to me, the Raiders right now are the team that I think is best suited for like a solid offer, but doesn't move the Cardinals super far back. Right. So now instead of having to take like a huge deal, but you're out, you know, outside the top 10, outside the top 15, now you're still making a top 10 pick. Cardinals have every need under the face of the sun. You're still getting probably an elite defender, assuming three or four quarterbacks go in the first six picks. So it's a good spot for the Cardinals.

and I think the Raiders are in a position where they can kind of watch out falls on draft night. Carlos got on the clock at three and then they say, okay, we'll give you that offer, we'll give you the extra pick on the back and you don't have to move all the way to 11 with the Titans or 14 of the Patriots or whatever. I think it's a square deal for everybody. So Raiders, to me, are the team I expect, does make the pick at three. Now, is that exclusive to Stroud being available? I mean, I don't know.

I'm just saying, like, I don't have any firm information on this. Josh Riches, Richard, Josh McDaniels, not Josh Richardson, the NBA play. Josh McDaniels trading up for Anthony Richardson. That feels like it would be a weird fit and a surprise to me, but maybe you feel differently. Could you see the Raiders making that move for Richardson or not really? The potential of Stroud being available at 3 greatly increases my expectation of the Raiders being the team to make the pick at 3.

I also think the Raiders have interest in Levis, and I also think the Raiders have interest in Richardson. I can't comment to the degree, like, where they have those two guys. I can't comment how strong it is. There's a chance like their interest in Richardson was like, hey, is this guy good? And then they did the work and they were like, no. But of the three, I'm very confident they like Strout quite a bit. They might even like Levis more and they're keeping it safe.

But like I'm confident they like Stroud a lot. And like I said, the closer and closer we get to the draft, the more and more I think Stroud is a good chance to be available at three. And that increases the Raiders chance to move up to the pick. I also just think for the Cardinals, like, that's the right price. Like, I think if, like, the Falcons at 8 were legit about moving up, I think, like, that's a nice range for them. I don't think the Falcons necessarily are, but the Falcons are meeting with guys,

meeting with Levis or meeting with Virgison and whatever. Like, lions at six, you know, I think that probably, you know, I don't know how much you're going to get out of Detroit. I don't know if they're a perfect team to match with that, but, and again, I don't know how much they're interested in trading up. Raiders to me, like, I like that range for the Cardinals. I like, I like the price for the Raiders. I think it all makes sense is all nice neat and tidy.

Don't mean it's going to happen, but I like the tidiness of it. All right, you mentioned the price. Let's take a quick break and then I want to come back and talk a little bit about what it would take to move up to that number three spot based on past precedence. All right, we are back here on extra point taken. So we have a couple examples of teams moving up to three in recent years, the most recent 2021-49ers go from 12 to 3 for Tray Lance. they trade two future firsts and a third for Trey Lance. A big, I mean, this would be a blockbuster, a big deal if a team did that. And in 2018, the Jets go from six to three for Sam Darnold.

They give up two second round picks plus a future second. So that's sort of, like that's where it gets interesting, you know, like you mentioned a team like the Raiders. Would it be a similar deal? do they just give up a future first instead? But that is kind of, I mean, that to me is how a lot of these deals are done. We have all the different trade value charts out there. I find most often teams look at just, all right, when's the last time this happened? What did the deal look like?

All right, we'll do something like that. Not all the time. Yeah, but that's usually how it gets done. All right, now I have to pin you down because you did not answer the percentage question. on whether it would be Anthony Richards. You gave a nice explanation. I thought you gave good reasoning. You didn't give me a number.

You didn't give me a number. Okay, okay, okay. It's because I didn't understand parameters. The parameters are a team is traded up to three overall and they've selected a quarterback. Put the percent chance that it's for each of the top four that they're the pick at three. Is that the framework here?

The framework is simple. What is the percent? Yeah, a team, yes, a team trades up to number three. Yes. What are the percentage chances that, that that move is to pick Anthony Richardson versus the field. So if you think, I mean, Bryce Young. Yeah. So I'll give the percentage of all four quarterbacks. Okay. Bryce Young is, is, Bryce Young is point one. I think he's gone. I think he's not there.

Levis, 20 percent. 20. Oh. Stroud. That feels high. Stroud 39, Richardson, 41. Does that math work? I think it works. Yeah, it does. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, we're good. We're good. Yeah. Well, it's 100.1% because you gave Young the 0.1%. Okay, get over it. Yeah, we'll allow that.

I would say, I think it's much higher that it's for Richardson. We'll see once all the dust settles, which of this is smokescreen. What's real? I still feel like it's going to be young and Stroud one too. I would have Richardson over 50%. I would have him in like the 60 to 65% that if a team trades up to 3, it's for Anthony Richardson. All right. Next question. What team should trade up to number three? I've got a team that you just mentioned a minute ago, and their fans are probably just want to

take, like they punch me in the face at this point after how much I've talked about them, making a long-term move for a quarterback this all season on every Ringer podcast platform. But I got the Detroit Lions. Detroit Lions, this is a nice place to take a swing, my friend. friends, they have picks six and 18, they have five in the top 100, they are third and overall draft capital. Guess what? Their roster is really, really good. Some of these other teams we're talking about it's like, ooh, you probably want to hold on to some of those picks. Your roster stinks. The Lions roster is good. They need a long-term answer at quarterback. Richardson would not have to play right away. You can trade up there, as I mentioned earlier,

that Jets trade, right? Jets go from six to three, give up two second round picks, plus a future second. So if you're a Lions fan, would you do that? Would you give up three day two picks to move up from six to three, assuming it's a deal in that ballpark? You get Anthony Richardson or whatever, or C.J. Stroud or whatever quarterback is available there at three. By the way, you still have the 18th overall pick in the first round.

You still have Jared Gough. You can play him in 2023, but it's not a – you protect – you got to look a year ahead. You're not going to be in this spot next year going, shoot, well, that did go the way we expect it. What are we doing here at quarterback? Get out in front. You have the sixth overall pick.

You have two first round picks. Now's the time to make a move. Detroit Lions, they're the team that should pull the trigger on this move. It's not just that they have 18 overall. They also have an extra second round pick from the Vikings because the T.J. Hawkinson trade. And next year, they have an additional third round pick from the Vikings because the T.J. Hawkinson trade. now they gave up multiple force in that trade right so it's not like they have like a surplus of picks it's just that their day two picks are more valuable than they typically would be but with that said like

if you if you go carnals we'll give you 18 a second this year and a second next year functionally you're out a second round pick next year beautiful do it you got to do it man High upside quarterback, and you have an high upside quarterback. Oh, you have to. I am so emotionally prepared for Lions' heartbreak this draft. I really am. We had somebody hit us up after like last week's episode. I talked about how the Lions Rebo has been so perfectly executed, so well done.

And they said like, you know, I kind of like, what are you talking about? Like, something that great. Like, they don't have a quarterback. Like, they're, why aren't they, like, why are you talking about them? Like, you know, you wouldn't talk about the Colts this way. And this how the Colts did it. They drafted all these good players, but they never. got a quarterback and they never figured it out.

That's exactly the point, is that you want to have the correct infrastructure in place, such that when you get the rookie quarterback in there, he's not Justin Fields with Matt Nagy, he's not Sam Donald on the Jets, but there's just no infrastructure to support him. He's just on his own trying to figure it out behind a bad offensive line with bad receivers and bad coordinator. Like you want to make sure you have the bedrock. It doesn't need to be perfect if you have to have the bedrock in place to actually get the young guy in here and he can grow and he can blossom and now use whatever horticultural

metaphors you want. The lines have executed that wonderfully. offensive side of the ball, kept Bed Johnson from being hired away. Offensive line, multiple receiver picks hitting on late round guys. It's so good. And in this draft, if they pass on a quarterback or if they do like the, oh, we won't take a top tier guy, but we'll spend a second round pick on Tanner McKee, they are now becoming the Colts. They are Chris Ballarding. They are pushing this into the future when you have to commit. You start a ticking clock when you commit, right? You draft an early quarterback in the first round.

and he doesn't work, you tend to get fired as a general manager. That's just a historical precedent. So absolutely you started ticking clock on yourself. But if you want to win championships, you got to do it. And there is no better draft than the draft in which you have two top 20 picks, and there are four top quarterbacks and you have extra selections afterward. And the team at three is trying to trade down. This is it.

This is the one. You got to go! And I'm so worried that they won't. I'm so worried that they're going to hold their water. I think the lines are the clear, 100% favorite for a team that should do this. Oh, so you had the same answer as me? You were going to go with the line. I have another team I'm prepared to talk about.

But if you didn't take the lions, I would have absolutely taken the lions. Yeah, no, I mean, I feel like if I was a GM in the NFC, I'd be acting irrationally right now and just looking around going, hey, we got a shot here. You know, we're not in a conference with Brady and Manning and Rafflesberger or whatever it was, you know, back in the day or even the AFC. Now, like, it's wide open where some of these NFC, CGMs with a good draft here, or if you nail a quarterback, you're really positioned way ahead

of some of these other teams. So, all right, we're both in the same boat there with the Detroit Lions. All right, who was the other team you were going to mention that should make this move? I think the Falcons should make this move. I think they should move up from age of four, or excuse me, age of three. Offensively, are they as talented roster-wise as the Lions are? No. but again talking about like is the bedrock there absolutely it's there Drake London Kyle Pitts Arthur Smith an offensive line they just invested a lot of money and it's got solid players like an offensive system that works

to me absolutely there's those areas is strong for development I liked Desmond Ritter a lot in Canada Cincinnati last year as you like to bring up shield a third round pick of quarterback is not a real thing can't say your watch to it it's that's a figment of your imagination you're absolutely right you didn't spend like for as much as I like Ritter and for as much as, in my opinion, the games that Ritter played, you're like, oh, yeah, I can see this working.

Like, he's got to take time at everything, but there's stuff here that, like, he can hang at the NFL level. If you had spent a first round pick on the guy and you're a little bit more pot committed, then, all right, you're less likely to trade up. You spend a third round pick on the guy, that's not precluding you from doing anything. And so if you're looking at this class going,

oh, we really like Anthony Richardson, but we should see what this Desmond Ritter's got. This is where the nerd approach, the Eagles approach of, like, no, you should always have multiple young quarterbacks in the building. You should always be ready for the next cycle, ready for the next development. Like that's where this really holds credence. Where it's like, yeah, you might like Ritter, but guess what?

Like, you're going to like Anthony Richardson a lot more if you get him in the building and he hits. And you're not going to like Ritter as much. But Anthony Richardson ends up, you know, lie in and he hits over there. Like, that's not going to feel good. So to me, like, that's why they fall into the should category where it's like, yeah, you got to look into this. And if you have the capital and the deal to execute, I think you should take it. They aren't as flush with extra draft based way the lines are, right? Again, they're like a step below for sure.

They do have a future day two pick coming from them from the Calvin Ridley trade with the Jaguars. If the Jaguars sign Ridley to an extension, which is just like if he's good next year, it'll be a second round pick. So they do have a little bit extra juice. I think it would be justified, right? And so to me, like, they're absolutely a should team. Lions are very clearly the should team. Falcons are also a should team.

Yeah, Falcons have three picks in the top 100, which is not a lot, but they have eight overall picks, and they are 10th in overall draft capital to your point. So they still have more draft capital than the average team. The Lions, by the way, are third in overall draft capital. I can't remember if I mentioned that or not. All right, let's take one more break. We come back, and I can't wait to see who you have for your wild card pick for this, and I will offer mine as well.

All right, we are back on extra point taken. Now, you know, you got to scroll down a little bit. You got your favorites. You're looking at your top eight, ten. Wait a minute. But who is a team that just could be a complete wildcard and make a move for a quarterback? I had some trouble with this.

By the way, this conversation, this draft is going to be fantastic. I mean, we don't know which quarterback the Panthers are taken. Two, as you're alluding to, all this buzz about are the Texans just going to do something completely stupid and not draft a quarterback at number two. Three, we're talking about Arizona. We know they're going to move out. for the Colts. I mean, who know, Jim Ursay could just come in and rip Chris Ballard's draft for it off the

wall and say, we're going with Jalen Carter or something completely wild. We had Seahawks at five. We talked out the Seahawks last week. Man, if one of those quarterback slips, they could even trade up to number three. This top five is, is this as good as like we've had? I can't remember the last time it was this good. So I have a comparison for you. I can never remember what jobs you held when, because in my time in Sports Media,

at like four different jobs. When, what were you doing? I'm very loyal. I'm enjoying my time at the ringer. Sorry, yeah, go ahead. That's not what I meant. I have like, I'm saying that I was like, oh, this is kind of made me mean a little bit.

But no, it's very talented. 2018 draft, what, like, do you remember leading up to that draft? How, like, just for months, it was like, man, I mean, the Browns are going to take Sam Donald at one, but what if they went crazy and took Josh Allen? Like, that would be nuts. And then, like, two days before the draft,

it was, John Dorsey's taking Baker-Mapiel phone. And then at two, Dave Gellman took Seicole-Barkley, right? The running back from Penn State, which we were all like, I mean, obviously he's going to, but he's not going to. Like, oh, he's talking about it, but they're not going to do it. And then he did. And so the quarterbacks go, and you have the trade-ups. And, like, to me, that 2018 draft where, like, I legitimately think we're going to be seven days out. And we're still going to be talking about, like, all right, so if the Panthers do this at one, then this at two.

And if the Panthers do that at one, and then the Texans have to do this. at two or that at two, which then means the carnals at three, I think we're still going to be there. And to me, that is awesome. It's obviously awesome from a content perspective, like professionally speaking. But just from an enjoyment perspective,

like that's so much fun. The NBA draft last year, 24 hours beforehand, there were three candidates for one overall. Nobody knew who was going where, and the betting markets are flying around up and down, fake sources. We got fake blue checks now.

I mean, it's going to be a hoot and holler. I can't wait. Yeah, this is a, this is fun with the betting markets also with this. Like usually I like looking at those also. Historically, the betting markets have no idea. It changes, you know, wildly day to day, week to week. So that's what even makes it more fun.

Like with injury news during the season, you're like, all right, that might be telling me something. Not the case here. All right, the wild carts. I'm going with the New England Patriots. It's far-fetched. I understand. I'm not going to bet the mortgage on this.

But is there a scenario? You know, I think there were some reports about Mack Jones was going outside the organization. I think it was Tom Curran, who covers the Patriots, you know, to get help last year because the in-building, in-organization coaching was not good there. With Matt, Patricia, did that irk Bill Belichick? Does Bill Belichick view any of these quarterbacks as special? Could they shock everyone? trade Mac Jones to a team like perhaps the Las Vegas Raiders get some draft capital back that way.

He's on a rookie contract. And then you make the big move up to trade into the number three spot from 14, I think, to draft one of these quarterbacks. Again, this would be very un-Belichekian. I don't expect it to happen. But as I was scrolling down, Robert Kraft, you know, during the owner's meetings was pretty clear that he's kind of tired of them being a 500 franchise since Tom Brady left.

Bill Belichick probably does not care about that at all. But does he view any of these quarterbacks as special? Does he think, hey, now is a good time to take a swing. If it doesn't work out, who cares? I don't know. But I had the Patriots as my favorite sleeper, really, in kind of the bottom half of the first round. Yeah, Patriots are my favorite sleeper, too.

Like, it's just... Really? Will they? Oh, yeah, 100%. Will they? Will they? No. No.

Does it make sense? Yes. Is it irritating that they won't because it makes sense? 100%. If it happened, would I feel very vindicated? Yes. Accordingly, that makes them a good sleeper. That process there for me.

Do you classify the Titans as a sleeper at 11? Is that past for you? I was actually considering the Titans in one of the other categories. like a should or a will. I mean, that to me seems like a real, a very real possible. Just, just Richardson with Vrabel, right? Just like, you know, chest pumping to alpha male,

just getting after it in the AFC South. To me, to me, that's Levis. To me, that's Levis and Vrable. Really? Okay. Oh, yeah. Levis who's coming under fire for getting too jacked during the NFL draft process. You're telling me that's not a Vrabble?

Yeah, I've been there. Yeah. Yeah, I know, it's a common issue for me. I couldn't fully put the Titans in wood, in wood will slash should because like the offense sucks. Like they have no line. I don't know whether passing game is supposed to work. Like it's a total mess. And so to me like they, if they get a guy, I'd rather get a guy and like let him sit for a year behind Tannhill and the final year of his deal. Final year of his deal.

Words are tough today. And then if, you know, let, let, I forgot about that, let Tannhill take some body blows for the love of the game and then put the young guy out there kind of when you're ready next year. Trading up for a dude doesn't preclude you from doing that. If you go out from 11 to 3, it doesn't mean you have to play Will Levis and Anthony Richardson by week five. It does make it harder not to.

It actually from a PR perspective, from a fan demand perspective, from a team expectations perspective, it does. It does provide more of a challenge. Again, it doesn't stop you if there's something to be cognizant of. So I waffled on them as a will should. Again, like, I don't really think they're a sleeper either. I think it's pretty well known that they're looking at quarterback. I think they're sniffing around trade-ups.

To me, like, that's, that's, they don't qualify as a sleeper either. The Titans are just around. The Titans are just like, it might happen. Like, they fall into that category. The other sleeper is, like, you know, when you're looking at pick three overall, you start looking at the NFL draft order, you say, okay, you know, Patriots at 14, that'd be an even bigger move than when the Niners move from 12 to 3. And they had to do that with multiple future first.

Like you brought up with the Patriots like they may have to trade Mac Jones just to move up halfway to then get the move up the rest of the way. So it's like a two part move. That's tricky. Okay. Like we started to get even wider. It started to go, you know, Packers at 15, Washington at 16. Like these are teams that could do it.

I feel like the Packers are a hard now. Packers are, yeah. Packers are good with Jordan love. But like, let's use the command. commanders at 16. Like, okay, like, yeah, I'm sure they'd like to get a rookie quarterback in there that they really like, but the price is just unimaginable. The only team.

Can I tell you what I, can I tell you what I picture at the, I just picture the commander's facility and hopefully this doesn't come off. I picture them, like, take a nap during the day, like, go, like, everyone just kind of chilling, hanging out, waiting for the team sale to go through. Like, listening, winning isn't really the priority here. We're just trying to protect ourselves from the embarrassment of our owner. Once that changes, we'll decide whether we want to build a winning franchise. But I don't sense, like, a lot of activity there in D.C.

That's probably mean and inaccurate, but that's how I picture it in my head, them like taking naps under their desks. Right. They're great. I keep giving them Brian Branch, the safety from Alabama in mock drafts, because it's like not a sexy player, not a high value position, a suboptimal measurables. But guess what?

There's no owner around being like, we got to make a splash. And so all the football guy's going to be like, oh, he's a quality player. Get him in the building. Right? Like if there were a top tier guard in this class, Washington at 16, no doubt. God, it's good guard. Like, you know, not worried about the ownership aspect of it.

The only team to me, that's like outside of the top 10, top 12 that wants to get up, that has the ammunition to get up would be the Ravens because they can trade Lamar. That's the, that's the, that's the, that's the, but like, when we go like sleeper, that's the only thing where it's like, okay, like obviously that can't happen. That's an absurd, enormous trade. I don't even know after you propose it Like hey I go from 22 to 3 and you get Lamar I don't even know like what

Who needs more like who like what? Where do picks get at? I don't know which side Like it's impossible to think about But that's the only one to me that got some credence Because they actually have that caliber of a trade chip Like Underdog Fantasy Josh Norris was talking to me About the Vikings at 23 And it's like okay get from 23 to 3 how

You trade in Justin Jefferson Because you don't have a chip that's valuable enough You'd have to trade all of your first and all of your seconds This would be draft day trade, man. Like, you can't, to me, to me, there's no way to get there. So those are the only teams that, like, okay, like maybe, but I don't see it, like Tampa 19. How do you get Tampa from 19 to 3?

They don't have enough. Like, they'd have that mortgage the entire future in order to do it. I feel like I have to take a walk after that Ravens thing kind of broke my brain a little bit. It's like, I legitimately wouldn't know how to counter it. Like, Lamar and a first? Like, is that makes sense? You would be trading.

Lamar elsewhere to accumulate draft capital to then trade for the Cardinals, to then trade to the Cardinals, I would think, but, you know, potentially that would be possible. I mean, Anthony Richardson thrown out of Del. You're just plugging him in that offense next year as a runner and thrown to Odell Beckham Jr. That was a fun one. I'm glad you brought up the Ravens. And yeah, the Vikings, I mean, the Vikings have five picks in this year's draft. They're 30th in draft capital. Like otherwise I'd be like, yeah, you know, maybe they take a big swing. They've got no long-term answer, but like you said, I mean, I don't really know what you're giving up.

I guess you can always give up future picks, but it's such a, I mean, they would be going from where? They'd be 23, you said. So yeah, I mean, the 49ers to get from 12 to 3 had to give up to future first and a third. What do you have to give up? It's almost like the, yeah, the deal the Eagles did for Carson Wentz. The Vikings would almost have to get up like to around 12 and then make

that deal. But I don't think they really have the stuff to go ahead and do the arts. How did the Eagles, when the Eagles went from 15 to 2 for Wence, they did what? They did like a pick and then veteran, was it just like Kiko Alonzo, Byron Maxwell to get from 15 to 8? And then they did picks from 8 to 2? I can't remember what the actual trade terms were. I would have to go back and look at it. I'm old. You should remember these things. I don't, I don't remember anything about it. But yeah, they had to, you know, they had to make two trades first get up into the middle of first round and then get up there. They, the Eagles sent, yeah, they sent 15, Baron Maxwell and Kiko Alonzo to the

dolphins for eight overall, and then they sent eight and future draft capital. I can't remember exactly what, for two, for, to move up to two to go get wins. So like. So they had to go 15, 8 to 2. This would be 23 somewhere, three, even harder. I mean, that's, it's insane, right? For the Vikings, it's untenable. The Ravens, it's tenable.

You find somebody who likes Lamar You send Lamar the Falcons at 8 Again, I know the Falcons I want to do it I'm just bringing up a name And then you go from there and you move all the way up And you go get Anthony Richardson And you just do this whole thing again With like an extremely mobile quarterback

And on a rookie contract You're just John Harbaugh dominating But yeah, I mean it's a mindbender of an idea Well, we will see If you, now did we forget any names? Was there, you know we're going to get somebody said Now we didn't mention the Seahawks the Seahawks could potentially do it if they love.

I saw, I, yeah, people were like, how do you not say this, because I tweeted about this, people were like, oh, Seahawks move from five to three. I'd be very surprised. I think the whole, the whole beauty of the Seahawks is like, we'll just sit here and kind of see what falls to us, man. Like we got, this is John Snyder. This is Tradeback King.

I'd be stunned. I don't think they're a trade-up team from five to three. That doesn't make sense to me. I would not be stunned. I would be surprised and I would have them lower than the other teams we mentioned. but if they love Richardson, the Seahawks, I think, are second in overall draft capital. They're always looking, they were looking for quarterbacks when they had.

Russell Wilson, we talked about it last week. That Gino contract is very team friendly, where they have flexibility to move on after one year. If they want to, they still have the 20th pick. And the other reason I'm not ruling them all the way out is because it doesn't, you know, it's not going to take a bunch to get from five to three. So if you love the quarterback who's available at three, than maybe you think about it. But I think those are all the teams

that I wrote down here as possibilities. All right. I guess the extra point taken. Here's my extra point taken. This is like such a Debbie Downer. Extra point taken. I kind of hate myself. Oh, come on.

It's been such a fun pod. I know. It's been fun. But I am an old curmudgeonly man. Yeah, I got out all my fun stuff earlier. It's just the, I don't like the idea. And you and I've talked about this before. I don't know on what podcast it was

or whether it's on a podcast or not on a podcast, but the idea that like there will be all these players taken in the draft, and I hope all of them do well, but then there will be all of this analysis that T-Mex is fine at linebacker because they drafted Player X in the third round. And so I just want to put some numbers and just explain how hard it is for a rookie

to come into the NFL and play really well, because it's... So this is just sheel hates third-rounders for the extra point? No, not third round. Shield's war against pick 76. This is easily the worst extra part taken we've had. I apologize. I don't know what.

It's sunny outside. Now I'm in a great mood. 60 degrees out of shield? Take a lot. I don't know why I thought of this. All right, let me give you a little quiz. How many, okay, so how do I want to frame this? All right.

So last year, there were 262 drafted players. Okay. how many of those players do you think played at least 50% of their team's snaps on offense or defense? So 262 drafted players, how many players played at least 50% of their team's offensive or defensive snaps as rookies? 50% is a lot. You have starters to get injured. Yeah. 262?

I'm going to say... Yeah. I want to say like a little bit less than 10%. So I'm going to say like 23. Oh, you went very low. You're really, I mean, it was already the worst. Oh, I ruined it. And now you're, you were supposed to anchor high.

And then I was supposed to say, no, it's lower than that. Well, okay, I'll tell you why. I'll tell you why I ruined it. I probably didn't think about trenches enough because you've so many of those guards. Like the guys just get drafted, they stick there and they play like the whole time, right. So what is it? Like it's in the 40s? The corner safety linebacker.

Oh, line. Those guys should be playing a lot of snaps. So what's the number? It is 20.6%. 54 total players drafted last year. So this is very fuzzy math here, but one in five rookies drafted last year will play at least half of their team's snaps.

So the point is just that it is really hard to come in as a rookie and get on the field, get on the field a lot, play a prominent role, and play well as a rookie. So I'm just saying, let's not fall into the trap when we're doing our analysis in May, June, July, August. Again, worst extra point taking the ball time right here. Just pouring in cold water on everything.

Let's not fall into the trap of saying that these drafted players are going to come in and fill holes specifically for good teams. That happens sometimes, and it's awesome when it does, and I hope all the rookies have tremendous careers and come in and play right away. But generally speaking, this is a very hard transition and a team is not fine

just because they drafted a guy somewhere. Man, that was bad. Do you have anything else to add? You look very upset with me. You're staring at something. I'm looking at this list. I'm stunned. It's 20%.

I'm just looking at like the first round. And like, is that surprising to me? But I guess like, I don't know, like, because like in my head, in my head, I was like, all right, like Trent McDuffie for the Chiefs. There's no way he played over 50% because he was hurt. And then I look back and he like 100% did. So I think I've probably overestimated how much injuries affect things.

Like like Kvon-Tibald obviously played more than 50%. They're like, Brees Hall play more than 50%. Like he was out for like, I feel like half the year. Yeah, I don't know how time works, man. That was around the middle of the season. Yeah, that was tough. All right. That'll do.

Can you end it on a fun? You're a more fun person than me. Do you want to end it on the fun? Do you have anything fun to say? Very easily. Absolutely. So as she'll brought up. I said it was going to be a fun draft.

I should have just ended with that. That should have been my extra point taken. Yeah. It should, right. Extra point taken happened in the middle. This is the second extra point taken. It's not as good. It's like a bad two point try attempt.

This is the haters. The haters extra point taken. If you're listening still at this point, you hate the game. Here's extra point positive spin. As Sheal said, only 20% of rookies play 30% of their snaps for their unit. As she'll said, don't put too many eggs in the basket of middle round picks. Don't say that like, oh, will this guy clearly step in and be a starter? He was picked at 84 overall.

That's not the case. Here's the good news. It's different for you this year, sweetie, though. No, no, no, no, you're right. Absolutely. The third round linebacker you got, he's going to be different. He's going to be the special one. For sure, don't remember about it. Obviously, that's like a general understanding, but for you,

random Vikings fan who watched Brian Asamoa film at Florida State and is like, yeah, he's going to be a starter. You're right. Don't remember right. You've got it. And that only applies to everybody else. You're special. At first, I thought you were calling me, sweetie,

and I, like, had no idea what to deal or how to respond. but I would have appreciated that nonetheless. All right, that'll do it for this episode of Extra Point. Taken, thank you to Ben Solak. Thank you to Ace producer Cliff Augustine, additional production supervision by Connor Nevins and Arjuna, Ram Gopal. We will have this feed filled with more content this week.

And of course, next week as we look ahead to the draft, which is what? 14, no, 17 days away, something like that. April 10, it's coming up soon. Regardless. We struggle at, you know, we struggle at, times in this episode, we will end struggling. Thank you to everyone for listening. We will be back soon on the ringer NFL.