The Ringer NFL Show - Our Favorite Over/Under Team Win Totals for the 2023 NFL Season | Extra Point Taken

Episode Date: August 11, 2023

Sheil and Ben examine some eye-popping over/under odds totals for the 2023 season. Find out which teams will regress and which ones will exceed expectations. Can Kyle Shanahan coach the Niners to over 10.5 wins with the QB uncertainty? Will the Vikings see even more improvement after squeaking out close wins last season? The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please check out theringer.com/RG to find out more or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Ben Solak and Sheil Kapadia Producer: Cliff Augustin Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Music Composed By: Devon Renaldo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Right now on the ringer game on fee and all throughout the entire month of August, the East Coast bias boys are getting you ready to bet the NFL this season. We're going through each and every single division and revealing our favorite futures, predicting division winners, and even giving you some award winners. Do we think the Kansas City Chiefs will repeat or will they be the throne? Tune in now to find out on Spotify or wherever you get your podcast. Welcome to Extra Point Takeda here, joined by Ben Solac back for another episode on the Ringer NFL feed. Ben, today is I feel like

the first time this summer. We're going on the record on extra point tickets. None of this. Oh, this is a cute storyline. This coach is under a lot of pressure. This is, here's what we think in terms of team over under win totals. We've each picked out our favorite three. Maybe we'll have one that's the same more likely as listeners to the show now. We may have one that we're on the opposite side of and that we'll argue about. Are you ready for it? Now, this is like letting the actual takes fly here on August 11th for the 2023 season. You always like have like this great like, oh, here they come, like the official takes.

I don't like, I just, I'll give an official take at any time, right? Like for you, you're like the summer, prepare, look at all 32 teams, get my thoughts down. I got to figure out how to get people about Gino, forget how to get everybody about Jordan Love. At any time somebody could ask me like May, Niners win the division, like, no, see after you win it. Like, I don't like, I will shoot from the hip. I don't give a hoot. That is true. I am jealous of that.

Yeah, I feel uncomfortable when I do that and I feel like I don't, you know, I like to feel good. I'm like, all right, here are the reasons why you just let it rip. Now, So like, I will tell you, there's a chance that we have a knock on the door here from a dryer uncle at some point. So we're going to give our favorite over under wind totals. If dryer uncle comes in, we're getting a new dryer here at the Kapati household today. The other one's busted.

I might just have to bring him into the pod. and say, what do you think? Lyon's over nine and a half or whatever it is, and we'll see what he thinks. So could have a special guest on this episode. I had dryer uncle at the house last week. I got a new dryer downstairs right now. That's exciting stuff.

Oh, man, you're way ahead of the curve with adult stuff. I'll tell you what. Appliance shopping underrated part of adulthood. Who doesn't like to make some reviews on a dryer? You want a real dad brag over here? What do you got? Did not buy this dryer? Got it from a friend who ended up with two dryers.

Zero dollars. for this dryer, sir. That's how we do it. You're doing it smart, and I would like to meet that friend. All right, I'm leading us off, Ben, because I've got the extra point today.

I feel like this is maybe some low-hanging fruit, but listen, I just went through the list. Which ones do I feel best about? Arizona Cardinals, Ben Solac. Four and a half, I'm taking the under. Now, I looked at this and I said,

Sheal, is this a square sucker bet? You're taking the team with the lowest win total and taking the under. I went back. a few years and I'm like, wait, does this always go over? Is this a sucker pet? And it's not. I think it's gone under two of the last three years. I just could, I couldn't get to a place, a world where the Arizona Cardinals been are winning five games this season. So here's the case. Last year, there were four teams with four wins or fewer. In 2021, there were five teams with four wins or fewer. So essentially, you're

kind of betting on, do you think the Cardinals will be like one of the four worst teams in the league? and I'm afraid about how confident I am that they are going to be one of the four worst teams in the NFL. Their starting quarterback is Colt McCoy with Clayton Toon, David Blow's on that roster, Jeff Driscoll's on that roster, okay? So that's the, you can just start with quarterback situation. You can really end there, and you could be in a good spot. They have a bottom five offensive line.

You know, reading my friend Brandon Thorne at Trench Warfare, he was ranking all the offensive lines. he had him with a bottom five offensive line. That's not great with that quarterback situation. Their pass rush, Ben Solick, have you looked at who is rushing the passer for the Arizona Cardinals? All right. I got it. I got it. Off the dough.

Give me some names. Yeah, who do you got. I know Dennis Gardex coming off the edge for them. They have MajaSanders out of Cincinnati. They got Lucky for two out of Utah is the defensive tackle. They have another guy who bothers me that he's there. Then they have a defensive tackle whose name I can't remember. Okay.

That was pretty good. And now Marcus, Marcus Golden. Now, you always have to jump a check. No, no, Marcus Golden's gone. You have to,

you have to remember. Is Marcus Golden a Cardinal or a giant at this time? And he's either one of the two most of the time. He's a Steeler. Nice signing for the Steelers.

Yeah. Nice depth pass rusher. L.J. Collier, that's the one who pisses me off that he's there. That's correct. So here is LJ. Collier,

zero sacks last year. Lecky Fahue. Lecky for two? Okay. Zero sacks last year. Jonathan Ledbetter, one sack last year. Zaven Collins, who apparently is moving from offball linebacker to edge, two sacks last year, and changing positions.

Dennis Gardek, one sack last year. B.J. O'Jolari, rookie, Mai Jai Sanders, three sacks last year. That's like they're too deep, Ben, of pass rushers. They lost JJ Watt. They lost Zach Allen in the offseason. They lost their three highest quarterback hit guys from a year ago. they lost their two sack leaders from a year ago. Their leader in quarterback hits in terms of guys who are returning to the roster

is Cameron Thomas, who had six quarterback hits last year, which could be like a half for, you know, like Aaron Donald or somebody. So their pass rush stinks. We mentioned the quarterback situation. We mentioned the offensive line situation. And then I get to the coaching situation. We've watched Jonathan Gannon. I don't know how you think Jonathan Gannon's going to do as a head coach in Arizona.

with this kind of talent. He's going from a pass rush that had the third most sacks in NFL history to the pass rush I just told you about. He's dealing with the situation where Isaiah Simmons wants to switch to safety. They're trying him there. Zaven Collins wants to switch to edge.

They're trying him there. I didn't see anything in two years of Jonathan Gannon that would lead me to believe he can do more with less with a roster like this. So that's most of it. And then the last thing and I want to get your take after this is that there's no incentive for this team

to win football games. Kyler Murray is not going to start the season on time, most likely. They have no time table for when he's going to return. He tore his ACL in December, just in December. This wasn't like an October week five type ACL. He tore his ACL in December. The Cardinals have their own pick. They have the Texans pick in a draft that's going to have Caleb Williams and Drake

May. I thought they made a smart trade during the draft stocking up on both those picks. I think that's going to pay off for them. I think it could be one year of pain. And all of a sudden, they've got a great franchise quarterback next year, and they trade Kyler Murray. I don't think there's going to be an incentive for Kyler Murray to get back on the field. I don't think there's going to be an incentive for the Cardinals to have Kyler Murray back

on the field when they're so clearly an unsurious franchise trying to lose games and get a high draft pick next season. So for all those reasons, I love the under four and a half wins for the Arizona Cardinals. What do you say? Up first say, four and a half, under four and a half wins is tough in a division in which playing the Los Angeles Rams twice. That's something that I worry about when I bet the Cardinals and when I bet the Rams, because I like the Rams under as well.

I also think that like if Gannon is successful as a head coach, which I don't particularly love the schemes that Gannon has deployed as a defensive coordinator, nor do I think his start to his tenure as a head coach has been amazing. But I do think there's a lot of, there's the worlds in which he ends up like a good, a good head coach. In those worlds, it's going to be. maybe because he's like a culture guy. Like he's like a huge like, you know, philosophy and teaching and communication sort of a dude.

And you're smirking at me. Because you know that I've snaked my way around a couple of pitfalls to get to this statement. All of that to say that like I could see the Cardinals being a team that cares very deeply about being competitive in week 15. Right. Like they're sitting there with two wins and a couple other teams are sitting there with two wins. And we're all going, please Cardinals, don't do this. Don't win this game. This would be so dumb if you win this game.

You're taking yourself out of the Caleb Williams pick. And then they do it. And Gannon's like, this is exactly what we needed as a team. And you're like, what are you talking about? So I hear you on they're not going to be incentivized to win. But it wouldn't surprise me if this particular head coach does not feel that way, right? Does not approach thinking about these week 15, week 16 games that way. So there are a couple pitfalls there.

But all of that to say, you know, the Cardinals roster is inexcusable. Who's the third best player on the Cardinals? The third best player. on the Cardinals. Who do you have as the top two? Hollywood. Buddha Baker. Buddha and I was thinking I was thinking

Kailorish Johnson. I was thinking Kyler. Now if you say Kyler's not active, right? And then yeah, like it's, you, Buddha's definitely good. I'm positive that Buda Baker's good. There are no more like, and I'm positive that Kyler's good.

Like I've obviously got like injury problems that like I have to see how he plays coming off of them. But last time I saw Kyler play, he was good quarterback. I'm positive. That's the whole list of players on the Cardinals who I'm positive of it was good. Like, DJ Humphrey's got money like he was good. I'm not positive that he's actually that good.

Hollywood Brown got trade pick like he was good. He was good. I've long not been totally convinced by that. Like, Zach Ertz, if it's 2018, right? Like, I don't know. We got, there's just, there aren't impact players on this team. It's very challenging. Like, they're going to win some games,

but it's very challenging to figure out how. Because it's going to have to be like, randomly huge Rondale Moore and Isaiah Simmons and Marco Wilson performances. And that's just not something you can hang your hat on at all. So I'm absolutely with you that I doubt

the Cardinals get over four and a half games. I think there are some pitfalls to do because it's such a low number, right? So a couple things break your way. It's a challenging number to bet. But in general, worse team in the league, worse rostering the league comfortably.

Yeah, I've got them at 3 and 14 is my preseason projection for them. So I feel like even if they beat that, like you said, weird stuff happens in the NFL. I'm open to that. It's possible. Kyler Murray comes back at some point.

I don't think that's going to happen, but they weren't very good with Kyler Murray last year. Anyway, so that is my first one, Cardinals under four and a half. I think they're going to be the worst team in the NFL. I think there's a chance we're talking about them as like one of the worst teams in recent years in the NFL. Like I think the pot, I'm not saying that's the likely scenario, but given the talent on the roster, the coaching, the quarterback situation, I think it's possible we're talking about this team as like a just a,

complete laughing stock this season. All right, hit me with your first one. What do you got? Hold on. First of all, first of all answer this question. Do you think we're going to be, so we each pick three. Do you think there's going to be one of these three where we're on the opposite side, one where we're on the same side, or do you think we're just going to have three different ones? I think we'll have, I think we'll have six different teams. There's my third team, I could see you also having, because the team we talk about quite a bit. I personally, pick three unders. I didn't do that on purpose, but also there's a lot of teams that I could see being pretty

good this year, and I've got like a lot of exposure on those teams. But in terms of like where I feel the strongest, there are a few teams that I'm like, I think these teams are going to underperform relative expectation. And I have them as being below their totals by like multiple games. So those are the ones I wanted to talk about here. I've given out some overs. Like I was on Bill's pod a couple weeks ago and I gave out some like, the Falcons are good, the Dolphids are good.

But this is, I'm here. This is a shield pod. So you got a wet. blanket it when you're on a shield pod. Well, you know what? It's so funny you say that because I was going through and I made a list of like eight, you know, that I kind of liked. And then I thought, you know what?

I ended the last episode as a wet blanket saying, I believe the statement was, no, no, no, I like things trying to convince the audience. And I go, can I really go on the next episode and pick three under? So I actually have one over in here. And then my last one, I'm picking between two teams. I'm going to see how I'm feeling once I get to it. All right, sorry. I just wanted to get to see what you thought.

I like how you're like, no, no, no, I like things was one of the three I picked wasn't over. 33%. You're just living out here. So, like I said, I'm going to switch on my order because I want to talk about the other really bad team that I just generally doubt this year. And that's the Buccaneers to win under six and a half games. Right now, price minus 142 at Fandals, a lot of juice in that direction. However, the Buccaneers don't have the same sensation that you have when you look at the Cardinals

roster because they have talent, right? this team is a playoff team, obviously last year and a Super Bowl team quite recently. So you still see, like, Shaq Barrett and Antoine Winfield and Carlton Davis and Chris Godwin and Mike Evans and Tristan Wirth. So you see talent. So they're going to be opportunities for this Bucks team to win on the back of their talented players, right? And that's why you see six and a half set of four and a half.

However, it's Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask fighting for the starting job. I mean, the whole here at quarterback is second only to the Cardinals, right? And even then, like, if the Cardinals get Kyler Murray for half the season, the Cardinals have a better quarterback situation than the Buccaneers do, in my opinion. Obviously, this podcast has a vested interest in the Baker Mayfield Kyle Trask camp battle. I promised that if Kyle Trask starts in week one, I would wear a full denim outfit as somebody who owns zero denim. That's still in play, right? I am.

They haven't decided yet. He started. I am acknowledging that Kyle Trask is receiving increasing numbers of first team reps over the last few days of practice because Baker won't stop throwing picks, which is hurting me desperately. But we are talking about a quarterback in Baker who went from the Browns to the Panthers to the Rams and now to the Buccaneers, right? He's had four separate homes in the last like 15, 16 months, has not played well in any of his recent opportunities, is not the sort of guy who can just sit back and let talent work

for him. He's not the sort of guy who can just sit back there and distribute to Chris Cobb and Mike Evans and, you know, stay behind a good offensive line. that he's going to invite sacks, he's going to invite interceptions, he's going to invite pressures. It's a highly volatile player who does not give you bang for your buck in terms of explosive plays. And then you have Kyle Trask who, like, you can make a,

he's an unknown argument. Like, oh, you know, like he's been in the system for a couple years. Maybe he has something. Kyle Trask, just to me, did not have the physical tools necessary to play NFL quarterback when he came out of college. That doesn't go away. I think that if he's put in a position where he has to play a significant amount of time, the buckingers are going to inherently have to be like a super run-heavy,

super shallow passing game team. And they are not built for that, right? they're built for downfield to Mike Evans, right? And this running game, no more Leonard Florent, they're relying a lot on Rashad White and Chase Edmins. They can't necessarily be a team that just plugs and chugs in the running game and tries to outgrind you that way.

Even along the offensive line where they previously were so good, they've had a lot of turnover, Matt Filer, Luke Gedecki, Cody Mosh, all in positions to start this year on their offensive line. And so it's so difficult to find a path for offensive success for this team because of the quarterback issues and then because of the issues down the chain the running game in the offensive line, throw in the fact that this is a Todd Bowles coached team. And despite the fact that there's no avenues for winning by running the football,

I think they're probably going to try to run the football a lot. There's a new OC there. Obviously, they moved on from Byron left, which bring in Dave Canales. Canales, yep. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Which, by the way, I googled it. 100% got Lucky Foto's last name pronunciation wrong.

I flipped the coin. I was like, I think it's Fetu. It's absolutely Lucky Foto. That one kills me. Anyway, so Dave Canales, who comes in from Seattle, right? and has a McVeigh background, like, oh, help Baker. You still need the running game to work. Like, you can't build an offense that helps a quarterback

unless you can run the football, and you just don't have that here in Tampa. If they win over six and a half games, it's on the back of an astounding defensive performance, which, like, Bowles is a good defensive coordinator, and they have good talent, but they simply have not been getting that level of defensive play for seasons now. And I don't think it's going to come out of the woodwork

now that everybody's a little bit older and a little bit more banged up, and like they added any significant talent. The last cherry on top is I think the NFC South has decent teeth to it. Falcons and Panthers are two teams that I like quite a bit. And then the Saints are perennially solid. This to me is a spot where the Buccaneers are going to start struggling. They're going to play poorly. And then they're going to look at the quarterback class coming up.

They're going to look at their trade options at the deadline and all these older veterans that they have with these big contracts. And I think they're going to have an internal discussion and say, hey, like the future is not here on the roster. we had Brady, we drafted Trask, let's see if we can get a future here, and they just didn't, that didn't work. They didn't get that. If we keep losing games, we might be able to just run the sucker back in one year, right? Like, they, to me, seem a lot more than the Cardinals do, like a team who's going to be incentivized to lose in November and December is going to do that with intention.

And so I expect the bucking years, if they're three and eight, to try to finish three and 14. Like, you know, like, that's going to be the perspective for this team. And according to that, I keeps them under six and a half wins. Well, they're so interesting for that very reason that, like the end that you laid out there. First of all, I'm in. I like that too. That wasn't one of my picks, but I've got the bucks at five and 12. Again, you mentioned just the situation on offense.

When you're that bad on offense, it's just going to be really hard for you to win a lot of, and it's six and a half. Like, they've got to go seven and ten with that quarterback situation. And it's juice to the under, right? Like six and a half, the books are acknowledging is a fat number, but still, it's a fat number. Like, this is not a seven and ten team, man. Now, the only devil's advocate I would play is, I kind of like this defense. I think this is an underrated defense.

I think they had injuries last year with Todd Bowles. He's been there for four seasons. They've had three top ten defenses, and they've never been worse than 13th. Like, even last year, I was with you. I was like, this defense wasn't very good. And then I looked at DVOA, and I'm like, well, they finished this season 13th. And that was with some injuries. So, like, you look at their defensive personnel,

and you're like, man, they, like, I like their corners. Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean. Ooh, Antoine Winfield. I like him. He's a good safety. Oh, Levanti David can still play at lineback. Oh, Shaq Barrett's back. Oh, Vita Vaya.

I'm like, they have a lot of good players. So I think if there's a scenario where they do go over, again, I don't think that's going to happen. It would be that this turns into like a top three, top five defense. And I don't think that's, like, completely out of the rest. realm of possibilities and, you know, also the fact that even though you like some of those teams in the NFC South, there's no juggernaut. Like, you know, they don't have like a team that I, I don't think. I don't think you think either is going to win 12, 13 games in the NFC South.

So, you know, I think there's going to be some winnable games for them in there. But the part about Caleb Williams and Drake May with them, it's just like when you tank, the coach pretty much doesn't tank, you know, so it's like, Todd Bowles is that this is his second head coaching job. If it doesn't work out here, he may not ever get another one. He's not, you know, if they get off to a slow start, he's not going to be like, oh yeah, you know, I trust you guys to keep me on board here. At the same time, if you're the organization, I'm with you. If you plug in one of those quarterbacks to this team next year, given the state of that division, they could be division favorites next year with the other talent on the roster. So I am curious to

see how their season goes. Do they trade some of these veterans at the deadline? Do they hold on to them and say, no, no, they can help us next year. We can have a quick turnaround. How does Todd Bulls feel about all of this? So they are, like, I feel like they've gotten, have we talked about them other than the denim all off season? I don't think so. And the denim was in like the spring. So yeah, the denim was a long time ago. Yeah, that was a long time ago. Whoever it was who sent an email to our other part of the Phillies special was like, Ben's got to stop making bets. I agree. Ben's got to stop making bets, man. This is too much. So yeah, they're kind of an interesting team. And under the radar, interesting team, I would say, based on maybe how the first six, seven weeks of the season goes, because they could move on from some players.

So, all right, I like that one. We've got two unders. So far, let's take a break. We'll come back. I'll hit you with my next one. The NFL futures are out. And now's the time to get in on the action early this season because right now, new customers get a no sweat first bet up to $1,000. One of the ones I'm looking at, Seattle Seahawks over eight and a half wins.

I thought they had a nice offseason. Added to that offense, Pete Carroll, 10 of the last 11 seasons, has had a winning record. I think they can get over eight and a half wins. You can go to Fandul, the Fandul Sportsbook app to find more options. There's tons of different player props

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we are back on extra point taken. We need some kind of like music, some production for here comes bright and sunny shield to the rescue. The man loves life.

The man loves football. I mean, I see the sun shining from my right here. The man loves appliance shopping. The man loves new dryers. He's just a ray of sunshine in everyone's life who he comes across. He's here to pick an over, Ben. And the over is, do you want to guess? Do you have any guesses who my over might pay?

You're not picking an over, right? Do you want to guess what mine would be? This isn't what you think. Give me one hand. I'll give you a hint. I can't give you a hint. I'll give you a hint. Three guess is no hint.

Okay, it's over. Packers. No. Panthers. No. But you're hitting on ones that I did think about. I know you.

Okay, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here. If it's the Broncos, I'm going to fight you. It's not the Ravens. I'm scrolling. It's not the Vikings. You wouldn't do the Vikings. It's not the Patriots. You doubt the Patriots.

Seahawks. Oh! Bang, baby. All right. Nice job. Nice job out of you. Well, we know each other's takes going into our second season here on the podcast. It is the Seahawks.

Seahawks over eight and a half. I settled on. I went back and forth with some other teams. That's the one I settled on, ultimately. So here's the case. First of all, Pete Carroll, Ben, last 11 seasons, 10 times he's produced a winning record. The man can coach. He's done it with three different quarterbacks.

he's made the playoffs. He did it with Gino Smith last year. They were nine and eight last year. Typically, he gets the most out of the talent at his disposal. So I like the coaching there. Then we just talked about why do we think the bucks are going to stay? Because they are not going to be able to move the ball and score points. What's one thing I feel pretty good about the Seahawks being able to do, move the football

and scoring points. Now, I'm probably, like, I would have loved to come on here and broken out the whole football hipster society thing and been like, Gino's going to take a step back. you guys are nuts. It was only one season. But that's not ultimately where I fall. I trust my eyes what I saw. I trust the numbers.

And I just, the supporting cast is so good. He's so positioned to have success this year. D.K. Metcalfe, Tyler Lockett, they had Jackson Smith and Jigpa. Second best wide receiving trio in the NFL behind the Bengals probably. Is there another one that I'm missing?

I mean, if you put tight ends and running backs, you can have a different conversation. Right. Just wide receivers, I think it's the Seahawks. Yeah, once you do trio, I think you're fine. right you go duos you get like tyreek plus jaylon waddle and eagles brown plus devante smith and you kind of like toss whatever third you want into that group and they still hang but probably i think trios wise yeah it's up there so he's got those three guys uh the offensive line i think

is going to be pretty good i mean they were playing with two rookie offensive tackles last year now improvement is not always linear where a guy builds off of what he but a lot of times for second year players as they always say that's when the biggest jump comes from year one to year two so i think their tackles are going to be pretty good. I think their offensive line is going to be pretty good. And then defensively, I don't love the defense. I think it's probably more of a competent, mediocre defense. That's really what it's been for five years running. I think they finished between 13th and like 21st for five straight years. So you kind of know what you're going to get from the Seahawks defense unless they have an outlier season. But I think they'll be good enough to keep them in games.

And then they have the 10th easiest schedule when you look at Vegas. projected win total. So it's not a daunting schedule for them playing in the NFC West. You just mentioned it. You get the Cardinals twice. You get the Rams twice. And then you have the out of division schedule. So I add all those things up.

I think Gino is in position to succeed. And the last thing, a little bit of regression that could work in their favor, they were 29th in turnover EPA last year. What does that mean? That means only three teams benefited from turnovers, both on offense and defense, less than the Seattle Seahawks. If that comes back to around, you know, more towards league average, that's going to give them a big boost as well.

So it wasn't like smoke and mirrors with this group last year. Gino Smith was seventh among all-starting quarterbacks in success rate. They had bad turnover luck. They were playing with two rookie tackles. They didn't have Smith and Jigpa, and they still went nine and eight last year. And now you're asking me, can they go nine and eight again? I say yes.

I actually think there's real upside with this team where if they won 10 wins, if they won 11, 11 games, that would not surprise me either. So I really like the Seahawks going over eight and a half wins here. Yeah, I talked about the Seahawks over, and I also talked about the Seahawks to win the division, which was plus 200 on Fandall when I was on Bill's pot a few weeks ago. I really, really struggled to find the universes in which the Seahawks are straight bad, right? It's hard. Like, even if you say, well, Ben, like, Gino has not played one good game.

like he had one good season and like he was in the league for eight years like what if he just goes back to being what he is this team can run the ball and they can play defense right you say it's probably still a mediocre defense it probably is but there's there's high tails there's high outcomes for this team where it's like uh chenna nuosu is what we thought he was the the the secondary allows him to be really really suffocating and then schematically they're able to generate pressure on the interior right they're able to solve their their defense to tackle and linebacker problems screw around run some stunts run some gaps like you trust pete to kind of figure out some stuff there that's what he does and lo and behold like you're able to win

went with like a more like jimmy garoppolo season from gino instead of that like you know kirk cousins plus season that you got from gino i still think you're going to get that from gino though and that's why for me it's really hard to find uh those universes in which the seawks are are emphatically bad uh i bring up the division win odds because one of mine that i brought is the 49ers under 10 and a half wins plus 116 which i wanted to get a plus money one in there um obviously as somebody who likes the Seahawks over and likes the Niners under. When I try to get exposure into this market, I take the Seahawks division, which is something that I have for the Seahawks to win the division, just because you're getting plus 200, right, you're going to get more bang for your buck.

You're obviously betting on two outcomes there. Seahawks good, Niners, bad, right? You're exposing yourself a little more, but the Cardinals ain't winning this division and Rams ain't winning this division, Tiger. So like you have a little bit of a binary outcome here. This 10 and a half number for the Niners is interesting. Kyle Shannon's coached the Niners for six years. He's only gone over this number twice, right? Like, we know this guy to be a really good offensive coach. There's also like, you know, and he's had injuries to Jimmy Groplo and whatever,

but like when this thing crashed and burns, it crashes and burns, right? Kyle's not good at going 500. Kyle's not good at going for the wildcard round. It's either working or it isn't. They've had a big defensive coaching staff turnover over that time, and now this is the third new DC, right? This is Steve Wilkes, which Wilkes is a good defensive coach,

but he's also the first defensive coach kind of outside of the family, right? Robert Sala was coming from the Dan Quinn defense and then DiMigo Rhyans came up and the Robert Solid Defense. Steve Wilkes is a bit of a different approach. And so you don't know how well that's going to translate over. The elephant in the room is that I don't think there's a good quarterback on the Niners

roster. And when I can get under double-digit wins for a team that doesn't have a good quarterback, I feel pretty good about that proposition, right? Brock Bertie's had a very up-and-down camp, which to me is not surprising. I thought Brock Bertie had a very up-and-down film when he played. Now, the Niners won the game. in which Brock Purdy was playing, and they found ways to work around that up and down film. But in general, like, Brock, like, Brock often gets presented as, like, a Jimmy iteration,

and he isn't that. Like, he's a risk taker. He throws the ball downfield. He throws outside of the numbers. Like, he tries a bunch of stuff. And he also gets presented as, like, a playmaker, right? Like, I think when people say, he's not a Jimmy, like, he'll scramble, he'll back tackles. Like, that's absolutely true.

But now we're talking about, like, an undersized guy who doesn't have elite physical tools trying to do the stuff that usually quarterbacks need to have elite physical tools to do. So to me, Brock is a very volatile player before we talk about coming off of an elbow injury and the potentials of how that affects his play in his accuracy. And then behind him is Sam Darnold, which like, it is...

Or Trey Lance. Right, okay, so Trey, which I would, like, if I'm wrong because Trey Lance plays and is good, I will be net happy. Like, that will be net good for me. But I don't think that's a very likely thing. And you have also Sam Darnold, who

I have resigned myself to the truth. to the reality that Sam Donald is going to start and look great for like a two to three game stretch and it's going to drive me insane. But I don't think you're getting enough consistency out of Sam Donald. Again, you're trying, you have to win at least 11 games for this to hit. For the amount of quarterback instability and uncertainty that the Niners are bringing, I struggle to get them to that number. The last thing that's really important is that the Niners have the worst rest disparity

among teams this year on the NFL schedule. This is something that Warren Sharbar, co-worker here, always looks at a lot when he comes to season-long win totals. The Niners play three teams this year that are coming off of their buy when the Niners do not have equivalent rest. The Niners do not get a buy advantage against anybody. The Niners also perennially have one of the worst travel arrangements because they're West Coast and they're moving over to, they're flying to the East Coast for road games, right? They're flying Central. They travel a big distance. So when you have teams that have high travel and then high rest disparity, those teams tend to

lose close games and fade over the course of the season. So to me, I think anybody who listens to the show will know, you struggle to find a bigger Kyle Shanahan fan than me. I think he's an unbelievable coach. I think he's the defining coach of this generation. I also don't think the San Francisco 49ers are winning more in 10-5 games this year. So do you, all right, well, I have two follow-up questions. One, if I told you Brock Purdy is going to be healthy for all 17 games,

does that change your opinion of, like, if I could give you that, guarantee would you still like them under 10.5? I'm trying to gauge how much of this is, you know, the elbow. Yeah, I'd probably make them like 10 and 7, right? Like I'd make them to be like roughly that. Like, because, and again, that's why I brought up the previous numbers for the Niners because like they had a, they had like a Jimmy season where they had Jimmy the majority of the year and they went 10 and 6, right? It's not like, it's not like, oh, when Kyle has his guy press 13. Like, you know, they're automatically winning, they're losing three games max. Like, that doesn't actually happen.

Okay, so you're not saying massive underachieving. You're saying maybe 10 wins, make the playoffs, but don't, maybe don't win the division. Okay. And yeah, and that's if you promise me that I'm getting all Brock. I think I'm getting Brock and I think I'm going to get some Sam and I might get some tray in there. And that generally, to me, is a concerning thing. I'm struggling with my, you know, my, my, I'm fence sitting, as you would say,

on the Niners for now. Listen, we're going to do a lot of predictions on the show, so there will be shows. We will just say, here. She'll open the show is like, it's time to nail down opinions, baby. This isn't my take. Yeah, I'm not ready on the Niners yet. This is your take. I wasn't ready to have a, here's exact, because, okay, so I could play, because I'm sure 49ers fans are listening to this. They're yelling at you, and they're saying, but Ben, here's the counter argument. You told me about all that travel. Well, guess what? They have the fifth easiest projected schedule in the entire NFL when you look at Vegas win total. So if they're going on the, you know, if they're a little sleepy and they're playing this

crappy team, guess what? They can still beat that crappy team on a little bit, a little bit shortage of sleep. So they've got that going for them. Brock Purdy, whatever you think about it, it was a small sample statistically performed. I'm not, he is not a top five quarterback, but he was very much like Jimmy in that, you know, this guy is not what the numbers say, but the numbers are what the numbers are. and Kyle Shanahan can make it work because he's got Christian McCaffrey,

Debo Samuel, Brandon Ayu, George Kittle. I mean, I think one thing the 49ers have really going for them is, like, they can endure two big injuries at the skill positions and they probably still would have like above average skill players compared to most teams. So like that is a luxury most teams don't have. I mean, you look at a lot of these teams, like, you know, the Vikings, they lose Justin Jefferson, shoot.

Now all of a sudden it's a completely different team. and there are other teams like that as well. Defensively, I hear you on the coordinator change, but man, you just look at the starting 11, and you're like, wait, they added J-Van Hargrave to a group that already has Nick Bosa and Eric Armstead and Fred Ler. If he signs a contract, Nick Bosa. If he signs a contract, that's right.

So the front seven is just loaded, and then you look at the secondary and the names, you're not like, all right, this is an unbelievable secondary. They've made it work in the past, and that's one area I would say kind of supports your point. Domeco Ryans, like there's a chance Domingo Ryans is just like one of the best defensive minds in the NFL. I mean, you look at the last two years, that 49ers defense has been decimated by injuries and it hasn't mattered. I mean, they were first in defensive DVOA last year, despite having one of the most injured defenses in the NFL. So, yeah, I think you're right to bring up.

Like, that might not just be that easy to replace. A guy who knows, he was so good at masking the weaknesses on the roster for. a week to week basis like two years ago. Remember, they could not even like play a snap of man coverage, basically, with who they were trotting out there at cornerback. And guess what? They still had one of the five best defenses in the NFL. One other point to your argument, Ben,

they were first in turnover EPA by a wide margin last season. No team in the NFL benefited from that disparity in turnovers more than the 49ers. And that's the whole team. So that's Demico and the defense. And then it's also the offense didn't turn it over. Now you're talking about an inexperienced quarterback that teams have film on. You have to think that's going to come.

They're going to regress there a little bit, whether they're still above league average or not. Who knows? But, you know, that's probably going to come back to the pack. So 10 and a half is the number. Right now, I have them at 11 wins. But I don't think that's a bad one. I'm historically betting the unders on teams with double-digit win totals is a pretty good bet. Like those don't generally go over at a high percentage.

So let me add, like, right, I think. that it's illustrated to think about the other teams that are kind of up here, right? You have 11.5 wins. That's the number for the Eagles. That's the number for the Bengals. It's the number for the Chiefs as well. And I think you have more faith than all those teams just like generally. When you go and look at 10 and a half teams, it's the Niners.

It's the Bills and it's the Ravens, right? And the Ravens is pretty heavily juiced to the under, whereas the bills and the Niners are both expected to go over. When I look at those three teams, I'm positive I have more faith in the Bills than I have in the Niners. I'm certain about that. Ravens and Niners, I think I have more faith in the Niners, but it's something that I have to think about for a second, just because, obviously, the Ravens, we've talked a lot about the instability on that team and the transition period, but in general, like, you look at these teams that have double-digit wins. The Niners,

are one of the most, if not the most volatile of the bunch, right? We're like, I think if the Ravens go under, they're going to win, like, 10 games, nine games, whatever. The Niners, like, again, like, Kyle's had some seasons of six wins, man. Like, and then, they don't have a quarterback. They do, but they don't. Like, you cannot be putting too many eggs in the Brock Party basket. Yeah, Shannon, I think it's an important distinction with Shanahan. Great coach, elite offensive mind, not a miracle worker.

Like, three of the six seasons he's been there, they've had below average offenses. And you'll say, well, Sheila, who are the quarterbacks? Yes, exactly. That's the point. Like, there is no coach who could just hide a quarterback who doesn't play well. It doesn't exist. It's impossible. Now, if anyone can do it with this supporting cast, it's probably, it might be Kyle Shanahan,

but I think you certainly make a good point there. And then the offensive line, Ben, it feels like every year I'm looking at that going, ooh, could that be? And they usually coach around it, but like, that's not a guarantee. They don't have great players up front and their best player, Trent Williams, is 35 years old. I've stopped trying to know things about the same. You don't even look at that. Like, I just, I mean, I do, but like the Niners five across last year was the best

Offensive line play they've gotten in like four years and I can't tell you how or why. Like I looked at the players in the beginning of the season. I was like, the team's going to win five games because of this. And then they won 13 games because of the same thing. Figure out the Niners' Office of Line and it's impossible. Man should not try. Yeah, absolutely. All right, let's take one more break and then we'll come back with our third teams.

All right, we are back on extra point taken. I've got a Google Doc up on my monitor. I have two teams. Do I need to do like my daughter and doini, meini, my mother, and I'm not going to bore the listeners with that. All right, I'm going to go with this team. And I think, I wonder if we both have this team.

I'm going Raiders under six and a half. Was that one of the others or no? I thought about it. I thought about it for a long time. Yeah, yeah. Okay. Here's the case. Second hardest schedule in the NFL.

They're bad. Moving on. Moving on. Ben, what's your third one? According to project. So very hard schedule, according to projected wind totals. Jimmy Garoppolo has started 10 plus games twice in his career.

The man is 32 years old. The most likely scenario is that you're going to get Jimmy Garoppolo for fewer than 10 games. And then you're rolling with Brian Hoyer and Aidan O'Connell. You have an offensive line that is definitely bottom eight and might be much worse than that. We just talked about Kyle Shanahan. Josh McDaniels is not Kyle Shanahan. The throws are not going to be nearly as easy. You look at it last year.

Derek Carr had the fifth highest percentage of tight window throws in the entire NFL last year. What do we look at when we see the 49ers offense? Oh, wow, they're really scheming guys open. That didn't seem like that difficult of a throw. I think it's just like I think it's nuts to think that Jimmy, the best version of Jimmy Garoppolo is going to surface with Josh McDaniels compared to what he did with Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers. If that happens, I will absolutely eat crow.

I would be shocked if that were to happen. this season. And then I just look at like McDaniel's resume overall. I mean, the guy's 17 and 28 as a head coach now, 378 winning percentage. He's coached an offense away from Brady and Belichick four times in his career. None of those four offenses have finished in the top half of the NFL in offensive efficiency. You know, again, you, you know, people like McDaniels. And I'm not saying there's nothing he does that is good as an offensive mind. But in terms of does he have a track record of doing more with less or maximizing the talent on his roster. I have not seen that when he's been away from Foxborough with Belichick and Brady.

So that's offensively. Now listen, there's a scenario, I think it's a small scenario, but where Garapolo is healthy, and you say, hey, they still have Devante Adams, they have Jacoby Myers, maybe Josh Jacobs steps up or shows up. Maybe the offensive line is better than we anticipate. And maybe the offense is respectable. We haven't even talked about the defense yet, Ben. this defense is just terrible every year for like I don't know how many years it's been

they're the bottom five defense. Do you want to play name Raiders defensive players? Do you have their death turn up? Max Crosby, I could pull it. Yeah, I have it right here. No, I'm saying. Don't pull it up. Oh, don't bring it up. Okay. Okay, so you start Max Crosby. I go Marcus Epps. Your turn. Marcus Peters, they signed. Chandler Jones? Travon Merrick, the safety. Oh, yeah, yeah, okay. I think we're Rock Yassin is there at corner still? No, Rock Yacin's starting for the Ravens now. Frick, all right, that's it.

All right. That was fun. We should do that more often. Your point is well taken. Now they drafted Tyree Wilson. Is that it? Yeah, yeah. I attack attack. Yes, Tyree Wilson. They drafted him, but he's a rookie. Who knows what he's going to give you?

I mean, Max Crosby's awesome. Poor Max. The reason I bump Max Crosby up whenever you're having those conversations about great defensive players, the guy has to play like 90% of the defensive snaps and he has no help. Like it's incredible what he does. But yeah, the corner situation is one of the worst in the NFL.

They were 31st in defensive DVOA. Last year, Chandler Jones was a disappointment last year. So I just have a hard time seeing a scenario where this defense is better than like the, you know, best case scenario is like what, the 24th best defense in the NFL. And six and a half? You're telling me they're going to win seven games with this coach, with this quarterback situation, with this defense. I don't see it.

I think this is a team with a low floor where it could get really ugly and we're saying is McDaniel's going to be the coach of this team going forward or not? What's their plan of action? They just have had no plan

over the last two years. Last off season they're like, all right, yeah, we can win right now. Derek Carr, Chandler Jones, let's go. And then that doesn't work out. This off season, Jimmy Garoppolo, we've coached him before. Yeah, bring him in.

Jacoby Myers. Hey, we've coached him before. Bring him in. Like, for what? Like, what are you trying to? You have no chance. You have zero chance to be a factor in the AFC.

What are you doing? You have no plan. I don't know why I'm getting riled up about the Raiders on August 11th. But that's why I like the under for the Las Vegas Raiders. There's nothing that fires you up more than when a team doesn't do

what should make sense for them to do for their like projection, right? Like whenever you think of teams, you always think of them in the buckets of like contend or close to contend or whatever. And then you're always like, behave according to your bucket. And when a team doesn't behave

according to their bucket, you're always like, that is not your bucket. Get back in your pocket. You don't know who you are. It's so funny. I think, you know what? You've nailed it. That's 100% true. I will not disagree at all. I think that's accurate. So are you with me? I think you're with me on the Raiders. Yes? Yes? Yeah, I thought about the Raiders. You brought up the strength of schedule, right? Where they're just, they're so, they face such a challenge group because they're in the AFC West and because of where they ranked and how the draw came out. also struggle with, with travel and rest disadvantages,

the same way that a lot of teams on the West Coast do. The thing that I brought up with the Niners, Las Vegas, yeah, they have a bad rest disparity and they have a bad travel disparity. Like, they're going to have to go on the road and try to win games with the disadvantages

that's always challenging to do. I, so like I lean under for sure. I generally, like, whenever you bet win totals, when you're somebody like me who, like, I bet a lot, you have to realize how long you're tying up that money for, right? That's money that you're not going to be able to use

for months put on other bets. And I generally am hesitant to do that on a team which has such a massive uncertainty as the Josh Jacobs contract situation. Right? Like I'm confident in my ability to, after I know if Josh Jacobs is going to play games or not, bet a couple Raiders games, win those bets

and make the same money I would if I just had money sitting in the wallet waiting on Raiders under six and a half. Well, I don't know the Josh Jacobs thing, right? Like, obviously, if Josh Jacobs doesn't play, you feel great about it. If he plays for 17 games, then six and a half. Like, you could have gotten a better price if you just waited.

So I don't personally have a Raiders bet. I lean six and a half. That's what a reason why I haven't taken it. It's just because I don't know the Josh Jacobs thing. And that's such a huge point of uncertainty. Like I thought about Browns under at nine and a half as well for this. I want to know if Burroughs playing in week one before I take that bet, right? So it's something whenever you think about, whenever you bet win totals,

you have to think about some of the uncertainties where we're here in August that would change that number. It would change that price and try to make sure you don't buy a bad line when there's no reason to. Yeah, I wonder how much. wonder how much it would even move it though honestly with Jacobs with the running man I mean he had what three hundred and nine like he had so many touches a great player he was awesome for them last year but I just wonder in the grand scheme of things that would be interesting to look at if he does it potentially move so it would just be the juice maybe so right that that that's the question you ask yourself right now right now the Raiders are it's over under six and a half right and the

juice is at what minus 140 yeah minus 138 what what how many games do you think this line is implying Josh Jacobs plays for the Raiders. Because to me, this is implying he plays like six to ten, right? Like less than a full season. I would like Josh Jacobs 17 games is absolutely

worth like at least half a game on the scale of things. Like over like Amir Abdullah and Zemir White, like on power rankings perspective, it absolutely is. So to me like if I heard right now that Josh Jacobs was going to play all 17 games, he's coming and he's signing an extension or he's signing a one year deal because you can't sign an extension or

I would expect this to become like over under six and a half, like more like minus 110, minus 120, right? You have that juice move substantially. And then I think smart people would probably buy it back and still buy the under anyway because the Raiders are just bad. But to me, yeah, like I assume Jacob's absence is baked into this price. All right. What do you have for your third over under wind total?

Yeah. I've been looking forward to betting under Minnesota Vikings win total since last season. I've just been waiting for it, and how thrilled we are that the day has finally come. The Minnesota Vikings over under eight and a half wins. Under is plus 104 right now on Fandall. By Pythagorean wins, which basically says, did you win games that you should have won or did you lose games that you should have lost? It's basically like adjusted games.

This is like one of the luckiest teams in the history of the universe in terms of how they played in 2022. They had unbelievable turnover luck in the red zone. unbelievable fourth down luck. They had games where they were outgained in terms of yards per play. They were games which they lost a turnover battle. There were games in which they've lost the penalties of battle, like all these sorts of things that we expect to predict wins. And then they were just like, oh, yeah, we won 3128.

How did you do this? What are you talking about? The amount of like fourth and 17s that Justin Jefferson converted for this team on a game-winning drive is just one against the bills. One of the great plays I've ever seen. Get out of Dodge, right? It was the entire time that they were at 13 and 4, everybody was. sitting here saying this was fraudulent. Vikings fans were sitting there and saying,

this is fraudulent. You were the one who was like, isn't this so great for Vikings fans? And like, how happy for them? And then they got deleted by the New York Giants in the wild card round. There was a great season for Vikings fans. What are you talking about? They went 13 and 4 and every freaking game was entertaining and every close game they won. They'll never have as a fun regular season as that again in their lifetimes. Sheal, they lost to Daniel Jones in the playoffs on television. They knew it was fake the whole time. Who cares?

They didn't think they were going to win the Super Bowl. This goes back to the buckets. You're like, the Vikings knew they were in the fake team bucket. The whole time they were in a bit. No, they weren't. They were like, we're good. And then they got beat by Daniel Jones on national television in the playoffs. I disagree.

I don't think Vikings fans last year were walking with their chest out being like, we demand our respect. I think they were like, all right, you know, this is kind of the most ridiculous season we've ever seen. but hey, you know, we're not going to apologize for it. Vikings fans, yes. I think the Vikings were like, wow, we fixed Kirk, how great. Anyway.

Right. So this number initially opened with a lot more value. It's been moving towards the under. I still think it plus money, it's a good buy. The Vikings have an extremely challenging schedule this year. They have the Eagles, they have the Chiefs, they have the Chargers, they have the Niners, they have the Bengals. They have a first play schedule, right?

And so they have to play a first play schedule in the NFC, and then they play the AFC North, which the AFC North is, to me, going to be the best division in the league this year, and accordingly, I think they're going to struggle with that. I can see this team losing to the Ravens and to the Browns and to the Steelers. They played so many 500 coin flip games last year

that you expect some of those coin flips to just go the other way for them, and accordingly have those wins drop down. Another thing that's important to understand about the Vikings, I think like the Vikings' offense can be quite good. I like what they got out of T.J. Hawkinson with that midseason trade. They go and they add Jordan Addison.

They're trying to develop a passing game in which you're danged if you do, danged if you don't, right? If you spend the entire game trying to take away Justin Jefferson, we can beat you outside of him. And if you don't do that, well, it's Justin Jefferson. We can beat you with him, right? They move on from Delvin Cook to Allison or Madison, but with their offensive line, which can struggle in pass protection,

but generally is a really good run-blocking line. I think that, like, offensively, they're holistic. I think they can work. This Brian Flores defense is going to be something. I don't. I like Brian Flores. I like the way he coaches. Speaking of miracle work, can you work a miracle?

Yeah. I like the way Flores runs a defense. I like his approach, but it takes certain personnel to run this blitz-happy, man-coverage-happy approach that Flores does. And I certainly think he's going to bend as much as he can to accommodate this Viking's roster, but this is oil and water. Like the personnel available does not work for how Flores wants to coach this defense, in my opinion. They signed Marcus Davenport to be the running mate to Daniel Hunter. I don't think that's enough juice there with an interior of Harrison Phillips and Cairoestonga, Dean Lowry, to be like, wow, this down pass rush is really going to win games for you.

And when Flores can't pressure, he blitzes. And if you blitz and you leave your secondary on an island, your secondary better not be featuring a Caleb Evans, Cameron, Cameron, Bind, and Mackay Blackman and Byron and Byron Murphy, which the Viking secondary currently is. Right. Like every single corner who took substantial snaps for the Vikings in 2020 is gone, right? They have a Patrick Peterson who departed. Chris Boyd is gone. Cam Dantzler is gone. I'm just trying to remember all the guys that they had play. Chandon Sullivan is gone.

Duke Shelley is gone. Cam Dantzler already said him. Everybody left, right? It's an entirely new secondary and it just simply lacks talent, right? I mean, they're excited about Andrew Booth, who I watched get beat by Jake Bobo last night at 12.30 a.m. in the morning. Like, I don't, I'm not, you can't, we can't put eggs in this basket, baby. And so to me, like, even if the Vikings offense rounds itself out and becomes a really reliable product and something that has stable win potential to them, they're going to have to win shootout after shoot out with this defense, which is not different than last year. They were in the same position last year.

but in that position they won so many coin flips and if those just regress back to 500 this is a 500 team and I think they're going to win under eight games so I'm confident that the Vikings record is going to be nowhere near as good as it was last year for the reasons you just mentioned I mean they were 9 and 0 in games decided by seven points or fewer last season that's the most wins without a loss in one score games in true media's database which goes back to 2000 so we are legitimately talking about the you Maybe the luckiest team of this century was the 2022 Minnesota Vikings. They were very healthy last year.

They were fifth in adjusted games lost. Here's the other side, though, I would say, is that like, doesn't this number kind of price in that no one believed that this Vikings team was good last year? Like, they performed like an eight-win team last year, and they're over under is eight-and-a-half. So, like, the markets are saying, are they a little bit better than last year? Or are they a little bit worse than last year just from, like, not from a record standpoint, but from a how good is this football team standpoint. And I kind of feel like you could make the case, you know, like he said, Justin Jeff.

So they have the best wide receiver in football. They have a top 10 offensive tackle tandem in football with Brian O'Neill and Christian Darisaw. They added Jordan Addison. You mentioned T. Like the past catching group here is pretty good. If Addison is like, I'm not saying he's going to light the world on fire, but if he's like a solid number two and you have KJ. Osport and you have Hawkinson, like Cousins is going

have a lot of people to throw the football to, and he should be protected, at least at tackle, maybe not so much on the interior, which is a question. And then their defense was a complete disaster last year. Like, it was the most, maybe the most frustrating defense in the NFL to watch under Ad Donatel. They didn't do anything. They were so passive. You kind of knew what you were getting every week. And so even though I agree with you on the personnel side, I could make the case, like Brian Flores, the man can game plan. Like, he could come up with a wrinkle in week seven against whoever average quarterback and really flustered that guy where we're saying, man, that was beautiful to watch.

The offense had no idea what was coming at him. So I tend to be with you, but like this would definitely, if I had to name the ones I'm most confident in, this would not be in my like top 10 or 15. I've got them at as an 8 and 9 team, but if you told me they're going to go 9 and 8, that wouldn't shock me either. So I think like 9 and 8 is in the cards for them if the NFC North is bad. which to me, that's the part that really makes this tricky. They get six games against the Packers, the Lions, and the Bears.

If the Packers, lions, and Bears, just in terms of like the general hopes that these teams, those three teams have, if they end up underperforming as a collective, that's like probably four wins for the Vikings right there, maybe even five. And then at that point, right, you're really scraping it if you're trying to get under eight and a half. So that's the thing to me that makes this tricky. I personally am of the opinion that the lines are going to be good. I'm there.

I'm in there like swimwear, baby, I believe. I think the Packers are going to be plucky, and I think the bears are going to be plucky. I don't think there's going to be four wins for the Vikings hanging out in this division. Once we get outside of the division and we see the rest of the Viking schedule, which is such a challenging schedule,

that's where to me, like, I don't see how they get to eight wins because I don't see them beating good teams. I don't think that they're going to have that in them, unless again, like, they have to beat them the way they beat the bills last year. And if you're betting, like, if you're handicapping,

you bet against that all the time. that just teams don't do that as often as the 22 Vikings got to do, right? And so to me, I just, I think when we adjust down from the Vikings' 22 expectations mentally, like when we just do it heuristically, we go, okay, 13 and 4, they're not going to win as many games, but they're still a good team. I'm not sure they were a good team, and I'm not, and accordingly, I'm not certain they're still a good team. You see what I'm saying? Like, I think they're not closer to bad than good.

And that's even believing in that past capture unit and believing in a, improvements there. It's still Kirk, and then it's still a horrendous defensive roster. That, to me, does not allow you to beat quality teams. You can be bad teams, and I just don't think there's that many bad teams on the Viking schedule, because I have a good collective belief in the NFC North. Yeah, I see them as a very mediocre team. Kurt cousins, like offenses with Kurt Cousins have been very predictable. If you look at it, his five seasons with the Vikings. In passing DVOA, they finished between 11th and 17th. every single year.

Like you kind of, like they're passing offense. It's not going to be terrible. It's not going to be great. It's going to be somewhere in the middle of the pack there. Let me ask you this, because you were talking about, hey, their offense could be pretty good. If I gave you $100 and said spread this out among the four NFC North teams, which one finishes highest in offensive DVOA in 2023, how would you spread out those $100? What I'm saying? 80.

80? Whoa, confidence. Do we want to look at the offensive DVOA last year? Because I know who finished first in that division. Past, what, past production doesn't guarantee future results? What's the saying? It doesn't, but I'll tell you, offensive DVA is pretty sticky, brother. In general, I agree with you.

But if there's a stat that gets it, it's offensive DVOA. Okay. I would put, like, yeah, I would put, like, 80 lions and then, like, probably like 15 Vikings, five Packers. but like I Nothing on your boy? You don't even mention the bears? Are you flipping on the bears?

Maybe we should save that for a future one but my doesn't even doesn't even mention your boy. Listen, listen. Fields will continue to be good. I do you remember the pod we did after the Chase Claypool trade or the DJ Moore trade, right?

And we sat down and we were like, this is good for the bears is the right thing they're supposed to do. And then I was like, okay, can we rank wide receiver trios? And you go and you do it and you realize like after adding Chase Claypool and DJ Moore to Darnell Mooney, the bears are still like maybe the 13th, 14th best pass catcher unit in the league and that's being charitable. I've only increasingly felt worse about that as the summer has gone on.

Like every, like, Claypool can't stay healthy and is not performing well in camp. Like they gave a huge extension of Cole Commet. And it's like, that's cool commit. Like I don't. It's just, I don't. That was crazy. Yeah. I like because it's going to be year three for fields it's inherently going to be all on fields but I'm so worried about sitting down in week five of this of this upcoming season and for the third year in a row going this is not good enough offensively to sustain a quarterback which like it's going to sound so so repetitive and it's going to sound like constant excuses but there's like to me there's a legitimate chance that that happens again it's going to be better but it's still like it's going to be maybe functional but I'm not sure it's going to actually be like impactful.

Okay. So I would be much more closer with my, I would still have the Lions as the favorites, but instead of 80, I would probably put them at maybe like 60 and then spread it out among these. I could see a scenario basically where the Vikings have a slightly better offense than the Lions. Do you know what the Vikings were in offensive DVOA last year? 20th, I think. They were 20th. They were 13 games on the back. of their offense. Well, they were trying it. And overall DVOA.

Yeah, it was really, again, one of the luckiest. Right. Now, do I, so should I, now I haven't bragged about, so one of my first Ringer podcast, it was basically this time last year, and I was on with Danny Hyfitz, and I said, the Vikings are going to win the NFC North. Now, you'll notice, I have not really bragged about, you know, one of my first prediction at the Ringer, because if I'm quoting all these advanced stats and say one score games, then I probably shouldn't brag about that.

right or do I get the W there or do I get the L there the statement was factually correct well here's here's the problem I'll tell you what the problem is you'll you didn't bet it right if you bet it then the cash is in the account and it doesn't matter doesn't matter how the cash got in the account all right but if you just go for the take then it's about it's about the meat and potatoes of it right it's about it's about the character of it the nature of it it's fraud it's a fraudulent win okay well listen these dryers don't pay for themselves you know I got to be conservative. All right, those were our over-under. So recap for me. You had the, give me the three teams you had. I already forget. I didn't write them down.

I had under 49ers, 10 and a half, under Buccaneers, six and a half, under Minnesota Vikings, eight and a half. Okay. I had under Cardinals, four and a half, over Seahawks, eight and a half, and under Raiders, six and a half. Now, we're not going to go through all the other ones we like, because guess what? We're going to give you full predictions on the NFC and the AFC. at some point here in the weeks ahead. And so when we do that, we will hit on a bunch of teams and say which ones maybe just missed the cut here. All right.

For the extra point taken, for the loyal listeners, the ones who don't just pop in and out, you listen to every episode, you remember we said, we need a team that extra point taken can get behind, a team that Solac and I can agree on. And the only qualifications I think we had were that this needs to be a team

that has plus odds to make the playoffs. can we find a team we agree and we'll make the playoffs so we don't need to decide on it today ben for the extra point i have three teams here that i wanted to see what you thought of and whether we should just eliminate any of them right away or whether we should keep it at three and think about it or whether we're just like no this is the team let's do it right now all right are you ready yeah real quickly the teams that currently on fandol have uh expected odds to make the playoffs minus odds that are precluded from this are the chiefs niners eagles bengals bills cowboys Jaguars, obviously, but also Saints, Ravens, Lions, Jets, Seahawks,

8, Chargers, Vikings, and Dolphins. All of those teams are right now more than 50% likely to make the playoffs, according to Fandall. So we are dealing with everybody. Vikings have minus odds to make the playoffs? Minus 106. Whoa. Lions are minus 170, dude.

Oh my gosh. This is going to be a wild season. All right. Here are the ones I outline. Now, I knew you would want to do the Falcons. I don't want to do the Falcons. Go birds. I looked at the Browns.

I said, no. the first time we're doing this, we're not doing the Deshawn Watson-led Browns. That's out of here, not a factor. So I narrowed it down to these three teams. One of them, you know, I think that the Solek family might be pretty excited about. The Pittsburgh Steelers are plus 128 to make the playoffs. So that's one. You don't have to say anything right away.

Let me give you all three. The other one is the one we mentioned when we thought of this idea during the episode last time. The Green Bay Packers are plus 138 to make the three. the playoffs. I heard you just call them Plucky or whatever the adjective was that you used to describe the Packers. And then the last one... Plucky is a great sports writer adjective. Don't feel I like that. No, that's good. That's a nice job. I thought you were disparaging Plucky. I was going to defend my little Plucky. You have a much better vocabulary and not just like big words, but like fun words, I would say, than I have. I steal them sometimes from you and just use them.

So that's definitely a nice job out of you. Last one. Carolina Panthers are plus 172 to make the playoffs. All right, Benjamin Solek, the three teams, I think, are in the running. You tell me if I forget, if you want to add anyone, go ahead and add one, although I didn't tell you about this ahead of time. I got Steelers, Packers, and Panthers in the running for a team that we could potentially agree on as a playoff team for 2023. What do you think?

How many rookie starters make the playoffs? It does not happen often. Right. like it's like a luck i know luck made it that's the whole that like purdy obviously played a game is he the starter i don't know yeah like i feel like it's not a very common thing um but i'm also going off the dome on that one so if there's a listener who has that down russ russ made the playoffs as a rookie for sure um so yeah this cannot be having that frequently back i think did right dac would have yep yep so that that initially and we're just saying play not even not even

win one so yeah uh that initially turns me off of the panthers i definitely thought about them. I'm inclined to go Packers between Packers and Steelers. I think the Steelers are going to be solid. I think they're in a really good division, right? And it's just, it's a really good division and a really good conference, right? Like if we, again, like, if we look at that list of teams that are definitely making the playoffs going to Fandle and you see the Chiefs, the Bengals, the Bills, and then Jaguars are winning the AFC South, right? All right, now you have to fight the Ravens and the Jets and the Chargers and the Dolphins and the Browns and the Steelers. And the Steelers. And the You have to scramble for those three wildcard spots.

I think it's going to be challenging for Pittsburgh. So I think they're going to be a quality team. There's just a lot fewer avenues for them to make it as opposed to those Packers and plus 138 where, listen, firstly, somebody's got to win the North, all right? And nobody right now, like the Lions are our favorites, but as much as I like my Detroit Lions, as much as I like that offense, I got some questions defensively. I think that North is there for the taking. And then I also think, like, 9-10 wins is a wildcard, is a wildcard team in the NFC,

whereas it might not be in the AFC. And that is, if Jordan Love's good, it's the nine-win team, right? Like, it's very binary. The coaching is good enough and the talent is good enough that if the quarterback isn't a problem, like it's Gino last year, right?

It's Gino last year. If the quarterback's not an issue, it's a nine-win team because the talent's good enough. And even then, like the Seahawks were more like rookies, like we didn't even know. This is like, yeah, definitely the talent's good enough. So you're asking me to choose

Joe Barry and Jordan Love over Mike Tomlin and Minka Fitzpatrick and George Pickens and T.J. Watt and Jim Hayworth. I haven't been. Listen, go look at my defensive rankings last year and everyone yelled at me. The division. That's right. All right. So Ben is Lee. Now, listen, Papa So Locke is a Steelers fan. We don't want to give him a little love on extra point ticket. It's like, this one's for pops. But you were saying he asked for Mike Tomlin to be fired all the time. My father also came visiting me a couple weekends ago in Michigan. He sat down in my living room. He was eating blueberry zucchini bread. And with no warning, he looked up to me and he said, the quarterback that Candy Pickett reminds me the most of is Joe Montana.

And I said, I'm not doing this with you for four days. You're up here for four days. I'm not. He goes, just like style, just like in terms of how he plays. And I'm like, okay, but still you can't say Joe Montana. I why can't we do the Falcons again? Remind me real quick

just because you decided we're not? Did you not hear my rant about the football hipster society and how they've gone way overboard with the Atlanta Falcons? I will not be a part of it. I will not succumb to the cult of NFL podcasters

in the summer of 2023. We're not doing the Falcons. Can I toss one more spicy team issue? I have at times clicked the button. I actually sent the money. Denver Broncos plus 186. Ten minutes ago, you go, if you say the Denver Broncos, what did you say? You're going to punch me in the face or something?

What did you say? You literally just said that earlier this episode. Do you not remember that? Firstly, firstly, firstly, I would never say punch you in the face. Secondly, it's because of how tempted I am to bet on the Broncos. I don't want encouragement. I don't want any help. I don't need anybody pushing me over the edge here.

Listen, listen, listen, listen, listen, listen, listen, listen, listen. Champagne's a good coach. Champagne's a real good coach. And if not for the season that we just saw from Russ, which I acknowledge we all just saw it from Russ, and we saw it very clearly, very in our face, you know what we'd be saying right now, Sheal? Nine to last 10 season, Russell Wilson-led offense

has been top 10 in DV-OA, right? If the season were just like three seasons ago, We'd all be like, this guy's very consistently produced a good offense. He's got a great coach, and they have good talent, right? You have Giovante Williams, who apparently looks great coming back. They have a retooled offensive line, right? And Cortland Sutton's good. I'm not a Jerry Judy guy myself, but I think that with Sutton,

they have a strong player. And then defensively, I like a Vance Joseph and Buddy. I like a Pat Sertan, Justin Simmons, Randy Gregory, Baron Browning, done the stretch last season, DJ Jones. there is talent on the defense, right? Like, I think Adjero Ebro did a great job schematically last season, but let's not make bones of it. Like, for a first year defense coordinator to produce as well as he did,

the defense has got to have some stars on it. Like, I think Sir Tann might be simply like the best cover man in the league on the outside of the I was playing right now. So, why not, you know? Why not? All right, I need to admit something. It's just me and you, right? Yeah, yeah, yeah, no one's listening.

The only reason I left the Broncos out was because I thought There was no, I was like, Ben is not good. I was like, this is not good. I was like, there's no chance. All right, well, while we're here, let's do, you know, here, here's the thing I like. I always like going with the team that had the biggest train wreck as a coach the previous year. No offense, Nathaniel Hackett, but we all, you take the, I wonder if you'll make as many headlines as Sean Payton did. You take the Jaguars after Urban Meyer.

You take the Giants after Joe Judge. You know, every year, you kind of look at that. And yet you look at that Broncos team, four and nine in one score games last year, Ben. They were 32nd in adjusted games lost. They had the most injured team in the NFL last year. Sean Payton, 15 seasons with the Saints. A top 10 offense 12 times.

They were 11th twice. They finished below 11th once in 15 years. I don't care that you had Drew Brees. Well, I do care that you had Drew Brees. But like 15 years straight, come on. That is very hard to do. do there. So I can kind of get there with the offense. And you mentioned it. This was a top 10 defense last year. By the way, So-Lak, they were the fifth most injured defense last year and they were still top 10.

I agree with you that Evereaux did a great job. That's why I'm kind of bullish on the Panthers. But Vance Joseph, go look at what he did with the Cardinals some of those years. That was a coordinator who did more with less. They had zero talent. He got Cliff Kingsbury and Steve Kime extensions, quite on putting it bluntly. I mean, they don't get those extensions. if he's not coaching up that defense. You mentioned it with Tertan. They've got some talent up front. All right.

So we have narrowed it down to two, I think. The Packers or the Broncos would be fun because week six, we'd just be yelling. No, you made us do it. No, you made us to it. Why did we do this? You know how positive I was in June that the Broncos were going to be bad even though they hired Sean Baiton? That's what I thought.

That's why I didn't mention them. And then I've just spent some time thinking about football. and the summer is too long and the off season and the heat gets to me I spend too much time in the sun this is the problem like it's also it's just

in terms of like positive expected value in terms of like you know buying into the market like sometimes you have to buy numbers that you just think are are bad numbers right they have value on them I don't think the Broncos

are going to make the playoffs I don't think Champagne's going to solve all of the Broncos ills in one second I still think the AFC is an extremely challenging conference plus 186 is a big number

and I don't thing. Like, they're below the bears. They're below the giants and the Panthers. Like, that's incorrect. Wow. Look at the talent on the roster. That is wrong. I don't know, but...

Great fan base, by the way. If they start playing well, that home crowd's going to be tough. You know, I love that Denver crowd. I loved what they did last year when their team was a joke and they called them out. Mile hot, you know, hard for other teams to play. They're tough to breathe. Very tough to mile high. Win some of those September games?

Okay. All right, all right. We're down to two. We've got time. I have to really sit down and think about how it would reflect on myself if I bet the Broncos to make the playoffs and I've rooted for them. And then we'll come back. We'll circle back to it and we'll decide at a later date. Whoever this team is, we will have a segment every week about where are we with this team. So this team's going to get a lot of love on the show this season. We're going to, you know, they're going to be a team that we invest in and we'll figure it. I'll tell you what, it's not going to feel good either way. but that's the point. It's plus odds. We're not taking the Kansas City Chiefs to make the playoffs.

This is the point of the exercise. This is, what is it called? Wisdom of crowds. Should we find a team that's plus money to not make the playoffs and then also have them? The hater team.

Have an extra point taken team and an extra point taken anti-team. To answer your question, 100% yes. Our next episode, the extra point taken can be who is the team I already know who I'm voting for.

I have my eyes on them and I know. That's on you. You narrow it down to three for Monday's extra point taken. That'll be the extra point taken. I'm entering my shield era, baby. I'm wet blanketing. Let's do it. This is great.

All right. Fun show, fun episode. Thanks to Cliff Augustine for producing additional production supervision by Conner Nevins and Arjuna Ramgapal. We're going twice a week here leading up to week one. So we will be back with you. on Monday at some point. In the meantime, everyone, have a great weekend. Thank you for listening, and we will talk to you soon.

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