The Ringer NFL Show - Patrick Mahomes Signs the Richest Deal in NFL History | The Ringer NFL Show

Episode Date: July 7, 2020

We break down the news of Patrick Mahomes signing a 10-year extension with the Kansas City Chiefs worth $503 million. We assess the value of Mahomes, the ripple effect this deal might have throughout the league, and whether or not this deal could backfire. Host: Kevin Clark Guest: Nora Princiotti Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

From the Ringer, I'm Tyler R. Times. When I spoke to NFL star Cam Newton in January, his mindset was clear. I want my whole career to be in Charlotte. Cam won't be getting that wish. He was released by the Carolina Panthers in March. Cam is a complex figure, and my interest in him goes far beyond his exuberant smile and transcendent style of play. Cam broke the glass ceiling in American Athletics, ascended to a place in the sport that few black quarterbacks have ever reached, making his fall that much more dramatic.

Over the past year, I've traveled the country speaking to coaches and teammates, friends and family, reporters, and even briefly to the man himself, trying to unravel the enigma that is Cam Newton. I uncovered contradictions at every turn. How can the hardest work on the team be depicted as a bad leader? And how can a franchise icon with the NFL MVP and Super Bowl appearance on his resume be so abruptly cast aside? The Ringer NFL show presents the Cam Chronicles. The series premieres Monday, July 13th.

It is the Ringer NFL show, part of the Ringer podcast network. I am Kevin Clark. It is an emergency podcast. Patrick Mahomes is a very rich man. New Bringer on Norr, Norr, how are you? Doing great, Kevin. So every time I refresh Twitter, Patrick Mahomes has seemingly made more money on his contract. It started at least 400, then it was at least 427, then it was 450, then it went to 503,

and now we seem to be somewhere between 477 and cash and the $25 million incentives. Nora, when you think of Patrick Mahomes, former MVP, reigning Super Bowl champion quarterback, was there a number? Does it exist? And was it hit? Where overpaying Patrick Mahomes is a thing? Or was this fair value? Was this a bargain? How do you view this deal, Nor? I think it's fair. I guess if they'd given him a billion dollars, I would have been like... That's much. That's much. That's a little too much. We should be a little more frugal in these trying times. But I really, what I think is that if the last, however many months have taught us anything, It's that the ability to know anything about your future is perhaps more valuable than we ever imagined.

And we can get bogged down in the salary cap take. That's a life take. That's a life take. That's a total life take. And we can get bogged down in the nitty gritty of, you know, the escalators and what's guaranteed and what's funny money and what isn't. But I think what we should really understand here is that Patrick Mahomes is now. paid as Patrick Moham should be paid. And the chiefs know that they have a very, very, very good quarterback for a very long time.

And that's bad news for the rest of the NFL. And, you know, that's pretty much it. Yeah, that's the main takeaway. And what I think is interesting about this, it's really a couple things. Number one, I think that this has the real potential. A PFF had this. I think it was fascinating. It says the real potential to eventually be a bargain.

And that's how long-term deals work in the NFL. He's not getting a lot of upfront money. In fact, his cap hits, according to Jason Fitzgerald over the cap, friend of the show. His cap hits are going to stay the same in the next two years. That's important. And they have 10 years of cap flexibility after that. And flexibility is a relative word here when you're giving up $45 million an average annual value. But you think about it.

And it's not, it's $45 million per year, which again, he's not making against the cap in 2020, is 22.7% of the cap. That is more than Brett Farr have had 1997, which was the previous record. Having said that, as PFF points out, that by 2025, if there's still growth in the salary cap as there is now, or perhaps there may be more with the CBA, but if there's still growth like it has been for the past eight years, that would be less on a percentage basis

than what Aaron Rogers and Russell Wilson got on their last extensions. So this isn't just about the cash. the cash and the length and all that stuff, that is the shocking thing. That's the sticker shock. But I think that if you're going forward or projecting what this looks like in 2025 and 2026, it has the real potential to be a manageable contract. And I think that's important. And I also think that because it's really hard to think about how to even, if you were to say last year or during the playoff run, how much is Patrick Mahomes worth per year? I don't know if you come up with an answer. I think the answer is similar around 50 because of the value he creates and the positions

you don't necessarily need to pay or pay big money to because he's so good and because he makes so little mistakes on such efficient throwing down the field and all that stuff. Is it a million reasons all in the field that we can get into, but we're not going to? But they now know what that answer is for a decade, a decade plus, 12 years. They don't have to think about this unless he opts out and that's, you know, let's not get bogged down in those particular guarantee mechanisms, as they call it. But they don't really have to think about this the next 12 years. And there's some real value in that, and you can pay a price to not have that.

I think that beyond that, I think that Patrick Mahomes signing an extension that is the biggest contract in history shows you how valuable Patrick Mahomes is right now. There were three players, according to Albert Breyer and Sports Illustrated, who signed extensions with their current teams this year. Once lockdown began, okay? there were two more who signed them after a trade. No one else was getting money. And Patrick Mahomes not always signed.

He's essentially signed the biggest extension in history. Nora, when you think about the ripple effects through the league that Mahomes might have and this deal might have, where do you start? Well, one of the things that I think will be interesting is because most quarterbacks are not Patrick Mahomes. Yeah. At some point.

And I think that point is starting with him. we will see a new reality where the highest paid quarterback is not going to be the most recently, the starter with the most recent new agreement. And that's going to make conversations about, you know, players from the San Darnolds to the Matt Ryan's to the Jared Goffs, more complicated. And I think interesting and revealing of, what teams value than they have been.

We'll certainly see it with Daph Prescott coming up pretty soon, allegedly. And so I think the ripple effect will not be what we'd seen for a long time, which is somebody sets the benchmark and then somebody sets it a little bit higher and somebody sets it a little bit higher. But we'll see a much more complicated, you know, sort of middle class starting quarterback potentially emerged. Yeah, the quarterback market has been flooded for a long time with high salaries and low salaries and very little in between. There are not a ton of $12 million quarterbacks, $13 million quarterbacks.

And I think it's interesting now how that develops because you used to, as you said, negotiate on the last deal that was done. And I remember talking to Thomas DeMittroff about this last summer. And he was saying that Matt Ryan at $30 million at that point was a bargain because every quarterback contract ends up being a bargain because they could leapfrog so quickly. And the quote Dimitrov said was that, you know, guys are the highest paid until they're not because then the negotiation starts for the next guy. And that's why Derek Carr was briefly the highest paid quarterback. That's why Matthew Stafford has been. That's why Jared Goff's making $36 million in some of these deals and is making almost $30 million against cap this year. Russell Wilson, same way. And we're not going to have that with Prescott and Wilson. Now, I think, I really do think that this raises the price tag of both of those guys. And I think that Deshaun Watson is probably starting. starting at 40 is my guess. If I'm going to go, if I'm, Deshawn Watson, that's where I start the negotiation is four years 160. But same with Dak, maybe a little more,

because he has more leverage because he's closer to free agency. I think Deshawn's a better player, but I think Dak Prescott is a really, really, really good player. I think that he might win the Super Bowl this year, or get to the Super Bowl, rather. But I think that when I started thinking about these negotiations, it's, Mina Kimes was on Sony's Day earlier,

and we were doing a little hypothetical thing, where we were talking about the next person to eclipse $45 million in average annual value. Because the average is what might be eclipsed in four or five, six years. But I don't think you're ever going to get the perfect storm that's going to get a $477 million contract for a long time until inflation gets so high that the salary cap gets so high that that's normal. It's me a long time until the total deal is hashed out. But I think that right now, what if you're on the second tier, let's say Mahomes is a loan on the first tier, and you're in the second tier, and you're Deshawn Watson and

Dak Prescott. I think 40 is the number you aim for not the crazy numbers. Mahomes getting. He is just a different quarterback. Now, Nora, how does this change the chiefs? How does this change their outlook? Chris Jones is obviously looking for a lot of money. You've been around a team. You've covered a team in the Patriots where their quarterback taking less, basically funded their ability to sign a bunch of mid-level veterans. And Tom Brady's, I think he had one contract where he became the highest paid quarterback. But other than that, he was really kind of on the low end of elite quarterback pay. And that's obviously been something covered ad nauseum. But when you think about how the chiefs navigated from here, and again, it's a nice problem to have to have Patrick Mahomes.

But when you think about the chiefs navigating this, what sticks out? Yeah. Well, the Patriots were always interesting in that just because not only did they have Brady doing that. that, but they were along with, and potentially because of that, always a team that could really benefit from, you know, the one extra $8 million year veteran that Belichick would go grab and figure out a way to utilize for a year. And, you know, I don't know that that's as much of the chief's thing, but it can certainly help any team. They have solved the biggest problem in football. So I think, as you said, it's a good problem to have. I think it will come down to, you know, they will have to say goodbye to some people.

But if they can keep their defense afloat enough so that he's not in a terrible position, which was, you know, why they lost the AFC championship game to the Patriots, I just, I think he is clearly the type of player that can elevate those around him in a pretty significant way. So I'm just, I'm not worried if they down the road can't afford a Sammy Watkins type contract. I think they're going to be okay with that Watkins.

Okay, so that's an interesting point. I think that the first two years, the cap number staying the same is important because maybe, maybe you can get Chris Jones on a huge money short-term deal, even though they've always been capped out.

I mean, they are not in a good cap situation now, but they have two years to figure it out. Maybe they trade Chris Jones. Maybe they do almost what the Niners did this year where they get a first round pick for them and they kick the can down the road and they don't have to spend that money. So I think that the cost certainty allows them the flexibility to make moves like that. What are we going to say, Nora? Well, just not only do they have that long-term cost certainty because the deal is so long, but, you know, I think we're sort of used to saying you can massage the salary cap.

The salary cap doesn't matter. And that's true in a lot of situations. But it's complicated right now. And I don't think that we should undersell both for the chief's situation specifically because they're up against it a little bit. And for the league writ large right now, the value of doing a deal like that and paying out a $10 million signing bonus. And having the cash flow up front be pretty limited, which allows you to get through this really challenging time when there is a lot of uncertainty, have it be easier. And then hopefully, I mean, I'm thrilled. that Brett Beach thinks that we're going to see

2031 just as a species, as a society at large. It's a very optimistic deal in that regard. It really, I mean, it kind of, it picked me up today. But when you get down the road towards that, assuming, as the NFL, I think, does assume that this will be a relatively short-term problem of potentially smoothing over the cap

if it does go down a little bit. Right. It is well-timed. And then new TV deals come in. Right. Right. So they have to pay out less money when there's less money to pay out. And yes, it's going to be a big number.

But as we've talked about, it could start looking cheaper and cheaper by the second. And again, the best laid plans. But that's when they think that they'll be in a better financial situation. So I don't know. It's great. Yeah, no. I mean, the COVID thing is really interesting. because the reports have come out that that could fall tens of millions of dollars.

The cap could fall 10 millions of tens of millions of dollars. And what ends up happening? Are there bailouts? Is there a new type of cap? Are there exceptions? Do they have an uncapped year? I mean, it is, if there's no season, obviously, then it gets into ice age stuff, right? And that's a completely different conversation.

And I think there will be some season, whether that's without fans or not. I mean, that's going to be revealed the next couple of months. but and I think it's unknowable right now. But there will be a revenue shortfall in some way. The Titans today refunded single game season tickets because if anybody's going to come to games, it's going to be season ticket holders and probably not all at once, right? That was the phrasing I saw on Twitter. And no matter what, the cap will probably go down because of that,

even in the best case scenario, even in the best case scenario in the next month and then cases go down and they're able to get some people in the stadium, socially disson or whatever, the cap will go down. That's why I think it's important that the chiefs have pretty much put most of the money in the middle of this deal, as Jason Fitzgerald said, where there's very little upfront money relative to the size of the deal. The cap change isn't huge in the first two years. So I think that that's important and that essentially you're going off of TV deals that you know we're going to increase anyway, unless the television industry collapses in the next year, which at this rate, who knows. But I think that getting this deal done before that is actually a win for the chiefs.

I think that there's a path in which if they had negotiated with him almost in the in the deck press got mold where you had to franchise tag him or whatever, the new TV deals are in and you're costing herself a ton of money. So I think that it's just it's a win for everybody. The Chiefs may have had to pay up a lot more if they had waited, and Patron Holmes is a rich man. Best guess over the next 12 years, how many Super Bowls the Chiefs win?

Three more. Three and 12? And how are they spread out? I think they'll have one back-to-back. Early or late in the deal? An early back-to-back. Okay, let's say, I'm not, I don't think I'm... Okay, this is not my official Super Bowl pick,

but I'm going to say in this hypothetical, they're not winning. this upcoming season. Okay. I'm going to give them the two after that. I don't do math, so I don't know what years those are. But they're going to win back to back then. And then, you know, then come the lean times. Yeah.

It's going to be tough times in Kansas City for three years. And then they win another. It's going to be Mahomes' version of the Jubar Gaffney years. Hey. Just randomly throwing at people. How tough is it that we've had two big NFL news stories over the last couple of weeks? and both of them basically boil down to the Chiefs and the Patriots made good decisions, eh?

Yeah, I know. And it's tough. If you're the Raiders right now or you're the Chargers or you're the Broncos and there's been different levels of hype around those teams where the Broncos are really excited about Drew Locke and what he can bring, the Raiders are optimistic about John, his fans are more optimistic about John Grum than I am. And the Chargers, if they had fans, they would be pretty excited about the roster talent. But if you're looking now and you're like, oh, my God, it's going to be 2030 until the Chiefs don't have Fat Toms as a quarterback.

I mean, I would just find a new sport. I would find something new to get into. Well, so I think what we've been talking about also boils down to, you know, just the value of having a plan. And I just, how can you have a plan when that's your opponent? Yeah, it's also, I don't envy them. I have a question. So I tend to think that Patrick Mahomes is going to age well because Patrick Mahomes throws perfect passes.

And even though he's athletic, the best thing about him, even though he has incredible mobility and pocket presents and all these things, the best thing about him is he throws passes you can't defend. And I think that he's going to be really. good in 2031 and beyond that. I think he's probably going to get another mega extension after this. Is there any scenario when you watch Patrick Mahomes play, whether that's against the Patriots defense or whomever, that you think this deal ends with Patrick Mahomes being less than

a great quarterback? No. Well, no. I mean, aside from injury, obviously. Or like the end times. Right. Again, we're being optimistic that life returns normal in 2031 and everything is fine. I mean, sure.

Yeah, he could injury. Yeah, I mean, there's just this. He will have to reinvent himself at some point, but I do not think that it will be such a thorough reinvention that it would be reasonable at all to think it likely it wouldn't happen because he's not going to have to make himself a truly different player. He will learn to rely on different strengths that already exist. And I just think it would be silly that that couldn't happen.

Yeah, I mean, reinvention is one thing. But I don't think that when you throw passes like that and you're, you know, I always go back to the fact that he takes passes that statistically and sort of by the analytics should be risks and he doesn't make mistakes on them. And when you do that, you are breaking football. And I think that that's going to continue. I think Andy Reid, who in his 60s right now, probably has seven or eight years left of coaching. Who takes over for that? After that, well, probably somebody good

because it'll be the best open job in history of football to coach a great Patrick Mahomes. But I think that their ability to keep scheming around him, their ability to keep finding personnel, Brad Veach is a very good general manager. I just think that this train is just going to keep rolling. Are they going to win in a Super Bowl every year? No, the Patriots didn't with Tom Brady.

But I think more times than not, I think you're going to see a little bit of what we saw with the Patriots the last decade or so where they didn't win the Super Bowl every year, but they made the title game a hell of a lot. And it was, you know, the unprecedented run we saw with the Patriots, I think we're going to see some things approaching that just because you have Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. So as long as you had that, you're pretty much guaranteed the AFRs. title game. Once you get there, there's some luck involved and all that stuff. But I just think that this is the beginning. And like, they've been planning for this. They've known since before he was a starter they're going to have to pay him. They saw what he was in practice. I talked to Pref Beach about this. But I think that this is going to be a really, really special run in football history. And it starts now. For all of the mechanisms in football that- For all the guaranteed mechanisms.

A guaranteed mechanism is an old wooden ship. But what was I saying? For everything in football that's in place to create parity, finding a great quarterback is still the hardest problem that any team has to solve. And really, I mean, with the addition of great coaching, what we saw with the Patriots is that all of those things that are supposed to create parity, when they're put up against one team having a guy who's just better than everybody else, else, they still win out way more times than they don't.

And so, yeah, I mean, what the Patriots have done over the last 20 years has never been done before, but I don't think that it is crazy to suggest that we're going to see a version of it. You know, if it's seven trips to the Super Bowl instead of nine, like at what point do we start parsing that whatever? But I don't think that that's unreasonable at all just because that is a singular guy that they have coupled with a really strong organization, and those are the key ingredients that were there in New England. I agree.

Nora Princiotti, any of the thoughts? No, I'm fresh out of thoughts. I texted 12 people today about what a guarantee mechanism is, and they all said different things. Can you give us a sampling of those answers? Well, so I'll tell you what I think the real one is, which actually is important, is that basically they will have to decide a year in advance on him, which gives him more control, which is great.

It used to be, we used to, and this was true of I believe the Colin Kaepernick deal, what are called quote, rolling guarantees. Yeah. That was the phrase last time. And a lot of the time that's not going to matter

because he's going to be Patrick Mahomes and that's cool. It will be a decision only in the legal sense. But it is still, even though this contract isn't, one that's going to, you know, change the future of NFL contracts forever. It's not tied to the salary cap, nothing like that. That is still actually a pretty significant win, maybe not for Patrick Mahomes' specific situation.

But in the general landscape of an NFL player contract, that's kind of a biggie, having that extra year of certainty. So, you know, again, we love to plan. I got a lot of, who knows, one that the... Is it from agent? right? Yeah, and some other people. Team people.

The upside down emoji with the tongue out was one. One was like I would love to read that contract. I bet it's 900 pages long or something like that. So, you know, just a lot of nonsense. But it's fun when we get to add some jargon

to the list of like that. Well, we found out that Mahomes is a rich man. We found out the Mahomes under contract for another 12. years and we introduced the phrase guaranteed mechanisms into our lives. So productive day. Nora Prince Yida, thanks for joining us in The NFL show. Thanks, Kevin.