The Ringer NFL Show - Pick a Take! Bengals Rebound or Colts? Better Offense: Lions or Dolphins? | The Scramble

Episode Date: September 22, 2022

Welcome to 'The Scramble'! Every Thursday throughout the season, Sheil Kapadia will be joined by a guest to run through the biggest stories in the NFL and answer your mailbag questions. This week, Sheil is joined by ESPN’s Bill Barnwell for a fun game in which they talk about the potential of the Bengals and Colts to rebound in Week 3 (3:00) and the offensive upside of the Lions and Dolphins (15:00). Then, they close the show with a mailbag segment and answer: Who would be the NFL's most fun two-way player (41:00)? Do you have a question for Sheil? Email [e-mail] for a chance to have your question answered on the show. Host: Sheil Kapadia Guest: Bill Barnwell Associate Producer: Mike Wargon Additional Production Supervision: Conor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgopal Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, my name is Kevin Clark. I'm the host of a new football podcast called Slow Newsday. I want to tell you about it. On Mondays, Lindsay Jones and I will recap the weekend in football that was, as well as look ahead to what's next. On Wednesday, the normal Slow Newsday, the thing you've been watching for years, current players, current coaches, current analysts talking about the football world. And on Friday, it's a wildcard.

Could be some college football. Could be more pro stuff. It's a video podcast so you can watch it on Spotify or listen to it wherever you get your podcasts. Follow on Spotify. It's Slow Newsday. Welcome to The Scramble. That's right. We've got a name here on the Thursday show. Shield Capadia, joining you. I'll be joining you on the Ringer NFL feed every Thursday. With this show, I'll have various guests on and the inaugural guest. I mean, it's only going to be downhill from here.

I've got my friend, a great Bill Barnwell from ESPN who had no idea he was probably the first guest of the official show, The Scramble. Did you, Bill? Yeah, I had no idea. But you know what? This is just, it's poetry. Sheal. When I did my first live episode of the Bill Barnwell show, I had Meena Kimes on, and you were the other guest, Sheel Capadia. So I feel like having you on for my first live show, having me on for your first episode, official episode, I should say, on The Scramble, I feel like that's the least I could do. There you go. I'm paying it back many, many years later, I think. I look different at that time. But it's, I'm living in a different, but it's all good. Hey, we don't need to get in to all those details about how old we are. So Bill is here. We're going to

play a very simple game. I didn't want to give Bill homework. Bill's writing like 12,000 words a week and doing 45 podcasts and videos. So I said, let's just do a simple game. We're going to call it pick a take. Now, listen, we're going to workshop the name. It'll get better. This is the first episode of the scramble. But the idea is very simple. We're two weeks into the season. Lots of takes flying around. I've got some. You've got some. Random people have some. I just picked some that I thought were relatively equal in their, I guess, bravery, I would say, likelihood, whatever you want to call it. And I didn't give them to you beforehand, because I know you, listen, you're doing this 24-7. You didn't need that much prep.

And so I'm just going to give you two of them. You're going to, you know, pick which one you like better, maybe which one you'd more like to be associated with, which one you think is the better take. And then we will talk through the two things I've mentioned. And then, of course, we will close it out with a mailbag. So does that all make sense, Bill? I feel like I confused myself, but you seem to know what I'm talking about. Shail, you will ask me questions.

I will answer those questions. Everything else is just window dressing along the way. See, you simplify it. That's why you're the best. All right. Let's get to the first one. You had a great article, a column up on ESPN today about 0 and 2 teams and which ones still have a chance to make the playoffs.

So the first take is the Bengals will make the playoffs despite their 0.2 start. And then I kind of cheated with the second take. The Colts will make the playoffs despite their 0-1-1 start. So Bengals or Colts, their fan bases right now are probably like this season has not gone the way we expected. Which one of them should kind of have more faith that you can get it together and you can return to the, or I guess in the Colts case, make the postseason. In the Bengals case, return to the postseason. So this is just not win the division and just straight up make the playoffs. You know what?

I initially, guess what? I initially had it as division. And then I read your column and I'm like, man, it is really hard to win your division after starting off O&2. So I changed it and I just made playoffs. So yes, you get in your, that's all. I won. I will take the Bengals. And I will say number one, I am informed by ESPN's football power index, which has the Bengals still as, I think, 50-50 to make it to the playoffs, even though they started them.

So they have a pretty significant. But to me, I just think the Bengals have been, they've been sloppy. and I think it's certainly fair to say that, but I think we know what they're capable of. Like, we know what their ceiling is. So much of what they have this year has come back from their team last year. And I think we know they can get hot. We know they have that ability to beat the best teams in football.

So even though they're playing a tougher schedule, even though I know they are struggling in some ways to start the season, even though they were overrated, I think, at the end of the year, given their DVOA, given how they played against teams like the Jets and the Jaguars at times last year, I think they're going to be fine. With the Colts, I'm not so sure. I mean, I look at this Colts team, and I kind of want to think, okay, what are you really good at?

And I think they can run the ball. Obviously, Jonathan Taylor plays a huge role in that. But the offensive line is not as good as it was two years ago. They're weaker at tackle, the left tackle, the weaker at guard, at right guard. Quentin Nelson's still playing great, of course, but still, offensive line, not as one through five good as it was a couple years ago. The receivers are a question mark. And we saw last week without Michael Pitman, the receivers were a really big question mark. Matt Ryan is a question mark given how he's played through two weeks.

And the defense, I mean, I always want to assume that coaches are smarter than me and know what they're doing and just have this infinite, just vast, unpooled amount of wisdom. But the Colts hired Gus Bradley after he played two games against the Chiefs last year where they entirely was saying, let's play too high. this is our solution. It's working. We're slowing down the chiefs. Gus Bradley was like, nah, I'm going to stick with single high coverages. And they got annihilated. And you know what? Gus Bradley, they're from that shield. They're still playing single high coverages in Indianapolis this year. And it's not going well for them. So I think my concern is the Colts are definitely a competent team. And I'm going to sneak out a little secret, quiet, hot take here in the middle of this reasonable take segment, which is I think the Colts are going to beat the Chiefs this week,

because they are absolutely desperate to win a game. I think that they have no choice. If they don't win, they're out of the postseason. This is a all hands on deck. Every trick play you have, every little nuance we have to try and beat the Chiefs, which, by the way, they beat the Chiefs a couple years ago, with Jacoby Preset at quarterback, I believe, I can double check that. I think they beat the Coles.

They beat someone really good early in the season a couple years ago, a percent at quarterback. So I think the Colts are, they don't have the ceiling the Bengals do. And I think when you start O in 2 or start 01 and 1, you have to have a significant ceiling because you have to break off a really big winning streak, I think, to get back in the postseason picture. Yeah, the Colts, you know, as I was going through this exercise, I just was like, you know, the Colts bore me at this point.

Like, I just don't find them that interesting. Like, you know, I think the coach, I think Frank Reich is a good coach who's not coaching great right now. I think Chris Ballard is a fine GM who hasn't made a lot of, and they're just kind of in that middle tier. And they've been in that middle tier now for four years. And it's like the issues they're facing now, everybody, you know, you didn't have to have like a football PhD to know what the issues were going to be. I mean, they went into the season with the worst left tackle situation, probably in the NFL. They went into the season with everybody asking, wait, you're, you're not

really, this isn't going to be your wide receiver core, is it? You know, like, if they had a great tight end or something, then you could say, all right, you can get by. Like, but it's just like, wait a minute, Michael Pittman goes down. And now you're looking at Ashton Doolin and the, I don't even, I can't even name the other guys who caught a pass last week. Bears can't. Yeah. So it's, it's just like their ceiling was probably capped coming into the season. And then Matt, you're counting on Matt Ryan, like some of the takes about, oh, they found their long-term solutions. Like, Matt Ryan's 37 years old, you know, maybe even a year out of him. That'd be nice. Maybe if you're lucky you get two years out of him, not everybody is Tom Brady. So I'm just like,

if I'm a Colts fan, I'm just like, they're stuck, you know, maybe they'll give me some entertainment on some of these fall weekends, but I'm not going to get invested because the ceiling is cap. There's not a guy, I know Ballard's talked about like, oh, if I take a swing on a quarterback and miss, you guys will crush me, but like that's the job kind of. Like, you know, you have to take those swings at some point. So, I mean, they might be fine. Like you said, like if they finish around 500, if they sneak out a division win and are nine and eight, that wouldn't shock me. But I went with the Bengals too. I mean, I'm not confident in the Bengals coaching, but at some point, I'm just like, I believe in Burrow. I believe in Chase. I believe in, you know,

the wide receiver core. They're healthy. The offensive. lines not worse than it was last year. Like they're going to, they're going to hit on some plays where they're going to be okay. I don't feel, I don't feel great about it, but I picked the Bengals there as well. I liked your reasoning for for the Colts, Bill, because I, in my picks column, I pick the Colts to cover. And my only reasoning was like, if I see a game where I'm going, how could anyone, like, how is this the line? No one is going to be picking the Colts five and a half against this Chief's team and what you just mentioned about Gus Bradley. I'm like, no one's going to pick the Colts. I have to pick the Colts. There has to be some.

something out there. So your reasoning was much better. I agree with you. And I mean, maybe it's that simple. Maybe it's just naivete. Maybe the Colts are just not a good team this year, which is not out of the question. But I think what I would say about the Colts is that they might win the division with eight wins. This could just be a really bad AFC South. But then again, look at the AFC North. The Steelers have a messy quarterback situation with Mitchell Trubisky and presumably at some point, Kenny Pickett. Maybe we'll talk about that at some point during the show. The Browns are basically waiting for Jacoby Brissette to come back. The Ravens, I think, are the best team in the division, but they can lose games. We saw them pull out a loss

from the jaws of victory last Sunday. And no one in that division is two and oh. So the Bengals, I mean, if the Ravens had won that game and the Browns had won that game, both games, they blew late with significant losses. I think the Bengals would be a much worse shape, but everyone's one in one. So they can come back the Bengals from O and two. They only need to come back from a game down, which I think is not that big of a deal after two weeks. Yeah, I'm with you.

All right, we both got the Bengals there. All right, next one. The New York football Giants will stay undefeated through week four. And I'll give you their schedule here. I don't expect you to have that in front of you. But basically, they'll win their next two games. Or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will stay undefeated through week four. Now, on the surface, you're going, shield.

What are you talking about? The Bucks are a better team than the Giants. let me give you their next two games. The Giants have the Cowboys at home and the Bears at home the next two weeks. The Bucks also have two home games, but those are against the Packers and the Kansas City Chiefs. So a much more difficult slate, which one of those teams has a better chance, in your opinion, to be four and O here in the next couple weeks? You're disgusted by this question. I love I'm doing my job. Neither question feels, neither take feels good to me. Like, I know.

when I say one, I have to attach myself to it. And that process, I feel like it's like an organ transplant, like all my body to reject the take and throw the take away. I will take the Buccaneers because I just have more confidence that they are a team that will not throw away a game. Like the Giants do have an easier schedule, but I could see Daniel Jones just throwing three interceptions or turning the ball over three times.

And that cost them in the game on its own right. And I think I went on Scott Van Peltzsche last night, and I talked about the Giants record. Giants are 7 and 6 when Daniel Jones wins the turnover battle, 3 and 13 when he loses it. And I don't trust him against the Cowboys, where even though they have Cooper Rush, who could throw the game in his own right against that defense that is so good at creating takeaways year after year, or especially last year, I don't have any faith the Giants will be able

to hold up their end of the bargain. So yes, is your schedule. I don't know that the Buccaneers are going to win both those games, but I have more confidence. that they will deliver a competent performance against those two teams, then Daniel Jones will against the two upcoming teams he's playing for New York. I was looking at the point spreads to add a little math to this question. And it's pretty interesting. The Giants are one-point favorites against Dallas on Monday night.

And then there are three-point favorites next week right now against the bears. The bucks are one-and-a-half point favorites this week against the Packers, but they're one-and-a-half-point dogs next week against the. the Kansas City Chiefs at home. So I thought that was interesting. Would you believe this, but I was looking about success rate. You know, early in the season, I like looking at success rate because it's basically, you know, if it's third and six and you get a seven-yard completion, that's a success.

That's treated the same as a 50-yard completion. So you're just looking at like which teams are producing the most positive plays where some of those outliers get stripped out. These two teams are 31st and 32nd in offensive success rate through two weeks. I was shocked by that Bucks. I mean, I know the bucks haven't been great, but that surprises you, right, that they're that low? A little scary, right? I mean, when you think about it,

they've been winning games with their defense. They were down three-nothing for most of the game last week until being saved and decided to turn the ball over four times in five minutes. But I, you know, I don't think there's anything wrong with Tom Brady necessarily. I think that passing through, touchdown pass, was incredible. What a throw from Tom Brady. But, I mean, think about their offense, right?

They're down three. for offensive linemen, at least three starting offensive linemen. They were done to a third string left tackle last week. They're down, if you want to count Rob Grancowski, they're number one tied from a year ago. Gronks retired. They're down multiple starting wide receivers. Leonard Fortinette is not 100%.

He's playing through an injury. I mean, it really is down to bare bones in week three for the bucks. And I think that is not going to get a lot better anytime soon. Mike Evans will be back. But it looks like, you know, Chris Godwin could be out for a couple more weeks. gauge for net, not 100%. Like, they're a team where in week three, they're desperate for a buy. And that is

a little strange in the NFL. Yeah, they could, you mentioned Grancowski. I'm just like, man, they could really use, he would get like 13 targets this weekend if he just showed up. And he just showed up. Any former Patriot walks in the room, they're getting six target. It is the it's the Jason Avant rule, right? Like, Jason

Devon could step into any Andy Reid offense and get five targets. And he could have been lying on his couch for a month before that game. Any thing, once you, Once you get the trust of the people in charge, you are guaranteed a target share. Yeah, it's a good point. I'm going to take the Giants. You know what?

I'll take them. I don't get me wrong. I don't feel good about this. But I can see a scenario. They go four and no. Their fans are whipped up into a frenzy. And then some of the stuff we're talking about catches up to them very quickly. I mean, I think I had them as like a seven-win team coming into the season.

So, you know, then they go three in ten the rest of the way. But yeah, the bucks are, it's like, I'm with you. Like Brady's arm looks as good as like anybody in the NFL right now, but it's just sort of the pieces around them. And maybe the teams they've played also. We'll see how they do in the next couple of weeks here. For sure. All right.

All right, next one. Let's move to Detroit, the Detroit Lions with some juice early in the season. We'll finish the season with a top 10 offense. We'll say DVOA, right? We'll use DVOA as the metric here. Or the Dolphins, Miami Dolphins will finish the season with a top 10 offense. I like that.

You're not spitting out answers. It means at least I did my job in making you have to think a little bit where you're not like, shield, that one's so stupid, it's easy. It's this team. Or you're just being a nice guest, which is also possible.

I am not a nice guest. So we can rule that one out quickly. Can I ask you a question? Where do they rank in DVOA right now? Can you give me that information? That's a good question. I can give you that in one second here. I will bet.

I will say, I am predisposed to prefer the lions because I put them in my column before the year of the five teams most likely to improve in the NFL. So even though I'm unbiased, even though I don't have a particular team I'm rooting for at this point of my life, I do root to be right. And the lions having a good offense would help me feel better about that. So where do these two teams rank right now after two weeks? The dolphins are second in offensive DVOA and the lions are eighth in offensive DVOA. well, that makes it a more difficult take. So that is even better of a question, Shio.

Now, I want to be nuanced here. And I've talked about this a little bit in other places. It is extremely difficult to be nuanced about this conversation. And this is my way of avoiding an answer for 30 seconds while I think about one in my head. What happened last week was a combination of multiple things. It was not just Tua suddenly decided to start throwing long touchdown passes. and he just ran all over the Ravens. He was very good.

And it's not all that the Ravens had backup cornerbacks in the fourth quarter and were terrible in coverage and blew multiple coverages for long touchdowns. It is a combination of both those things. Both can be true at the same time. And there's nothing wrong with that. It's not a knock on to it to say that that was the case. But it would be naive to pretend that wasn't the case. And so for me, I think the dolphins having seen them for eight quarters, I think they were

pretty okay for. seven of those quarters and then the most unholy force I've ever seen unleashed on a football field in the eighth quarter, whereas the Lions have been pretty consistently good for two games on offense. It's not as good as the Dolphins were in the fourth quarter of that game because no one is that good. But consistently good. And honestly, they would have been even better against Washington last week if Jared

Gough hadn't missed a bunch of open throws. So to me, I'm going to take the lion's side of the spell. Interesting. Okay. You've got the Lions here. I was thinking about the lions and I'm like, am I really going to pick golf here? And it's like, well, golf quarterback three top 10 offenses. Yeah.

With the Rams. And, you know, we all, I was Sean McBay. And yes, I mean, I've been saying that. I've been writing that. Yeah, Sean McVeigh can do more with less. That's why he gets paid a lot of money to, and it's a very valuable head coach. But it's like it's been done multiple times before the supporting cast. I mean, they had, what, three offensive linemen down?

And you wouldn't have even known it last weekend. and then Swift, I'm on Ross St. Brown. They've been like early season stars for the lion. So I think there's a case for them. I think they have been fortunate for some like huge plays. I mean, I think they've got three plays of 50 plus yards already. 11 plays at 20 plus yards. They lead the league in both.

So are those going to continue week in and week out? Are they going to have to sustain some drives? I'm not sure. The dolphins, I'm with you. Like I sort of was more smitten with Mike McDaniel than Tua last week. Like I didn't know much. I didn't have a strong take about Mike McDaniel coming into the season. I'm like, I have no idea if he's going to be good or not.

But, like, he did a lot of things in that game that impressed me. His game management, I thought was fantastic down the stretch on that last drive, not wasting a time out. He knew he had time to try to pop that run that they got for whatever it was, 26, 28 yards. And, like, the basic premise of coaching is putting your players in position to succeed. And, like, Tua has played. I don't know how many starts he's had, but that was the best he's ever looked. That's with the supporting cast, but that's also Mike McDaniel's second game.

And how often do we see coaches get like a new weapon like Tyreek Hill and it's week four? And the stories are like, shoot, do they know what to do with this guy? They're not using him like they used him in his previous stop. And Hill and Waddle combined for what, 32 targets. So there was a lot I like there. And so I've got a little more, I think because I've got a little bit of faith, this is something that I'll flip flop on like probably seven times this season. But right now I'm like, oh, Mike McDaniel might be kind of.

of good, so I'm going to leave towards the dolphins. I mean, let's contrast two first-time head coaches. In Miami, Mike Daniels managing the clock pretty well. He's getting the most out of his players. Even to talk about like Mike Gisicki, for example, where they were using Mike Gisiki as a blocking tight end. He hasn't really been that guy

when the games have actually played out over the course of the season, which is great. Use your players to their best ability. Let's contrast to Denver, for example, where they can't call plays on fourth down without calling a time out or taking a delay a game, penalty. Like, the bar is not that high, frankly, for these first year coaches. And Michael Daniel is way above the likes of the Daniel Hackett so far through the first two weeks

of the season. What a guess. I mean, my next one, it's like you're looking at my monitor right here. You know what I'm going to say. This is a bit of a silly one. So we don't need to spend a long time on it. But take number one, Broncos fans should count down the play clock every time it gets under 10. They're on Sunday night football. They're at home. I thought that was just such a great fan moment where like the fans were so attuned to what was happening and couldn't believe their coach couldn't get it right. Like it was organic. I love that. I mean, I think Broncos fans should be getting way more credit for that. So that's take number one. Number two, Kyler Murray should pretend his headset is malfunctioning and call his

own plays on Sunday. And let me give some context here, Bill, before I ask you to pick one. And again, this is, you know, this one's a bit of a joke. But Cliff Kingsbury should be writing Nathaniel Hacker like a thank you note this week because as many issues as Hackett had and there were a lot of them. We went over them. I went over them with Ben Solac earlier this week. But the Cardinals wasted timeouts in the first, third and fourth quarters because the play clock was running out. And then the cherry on top, I mean, a two point play to tie the game with zero on the clock. The Raiders call time out before the two point try and you take a delay of game. You can't get the play in on They had to take that two-point try from the seven-yard line.

If they don't convert that play and they lose because they had to do a two-point try from the seven-yard line, Kingsbury is getting crushed this weekend if the Hackett thing didn't happen. But those were the two I wanted to pose with you. And I also wanted to ask you because you've been like ahead of the curve with a lot. I feel like the coaching game management stuff, you've been writing about it for years. Like with someone like Hackett, should Broncos fans be like, all right, it's a bad start, but coaches can improve. It's hard to do.

Or are you just like, oh, gosh, this is not. This usually when it starts like this, it doesn't end well. So I asked you like seven questions there. But anyway. That's fine. These are all good questions, though. I'll start with the Hackett stuff. We'll go from there.

Have you ever bought something, Sheel, and like got into the car, like something expensive, like a couch or something, and got into your car and been like, oh, I made the wrong decision. Like, I immediately regret making this big purchase. That's what the Nathaniel Hackett era feels like to me in Denver. Like, I don't think he should be fired. But I think the Broncos should probably feel like, did we do all the right investigation? Like, should we have gone to a wirecutter and see what they said for coaches?

Like, there was not a realistic expectation that he would be this bad at this one element of the job. And I think what makes it so concerning is, like you said, I've been writing about this stuff for a decade now. Well, for a decade now. Back in Grayland was 2011, so 11 years now. And I mean, I don't do that column anymore, in part because it's a lot of the same stuff week after week, but in part because coaches are better. Coaches are smarter. Stuff that coaches do now, like go for two down 14 or go forward and fourth and one on their own side of the field, would have been insane 10, 15 years ago.

And now it's, you know, if you don't get it, you're upset, but it gets taken for granted now. And to have Hackett struggling with the stuff that I saw Jason Garrett struggling with a decade ago or Ron Rivera struggling with a decade ago is very, very disconcerting. Because again, this is not a guy who has been just wildly successful throughout his entire NFL career. He was fired as the Jags OC four years ago. And I don't think anybody at that time thought he was going to be a head coach four years later, but goes to the Packers on a successful franchise. And I'm sure he's a better coach because he was with the Packers, but I don't know that his culture building or his fourth down decision making or any of that stuff that we're seeing struggle is better because he was the quarterback's coach basically or the

third down guy with the Packers. I'm concerned, certainly, about the Broncos. I have to admit, I forgot what the actual take was that I'm thinking about because I talked with the walks. What are the options? The two options are Broncos fans should count down the play clock every time it gets under 10, or Kyla Murray should just pretend his headset is Mel functioning and call his own plays on Sunday. I do remember you made it clear to give me a quick answer, and now I've talked for two minutes, and I have to even addressed to Kingston. That's a great answer. So I'm sorry about that. But the thing about Cliff that I think people need to keep in mind is that they have the smallest playbook in football by a considerable margin. Like air raid coaches have famously small playbooks and playlists

to call off of. And Cliff is about as air raid as against. They're not 100% of their right offense. They're not running like, you know, the one, like the piece of loose leaf that Mike Leach might have on a week, but they are a very small playbook. So they do that they didn't have a play call for fourth and two after a time out when they have the smallest play sheet in the league. extremely funny to me. So I will go Broncos because they have, like this has to be a branded thing now within two weeks. It is such a organically great thing that I think other band bases are going to steal it.

That's how good of this. Yeah, I'm with you. I would go with the Broncos there. And you're right. Yeah, if it's like Sean Payton can't get a play in, it's like, all right, the guy's choosing from like 700 plays. That play sheet looks ridiculous. But yeah, that is a good point.

And then they run the play. And the play is Kyler Murray dropped. back and point to people like me playing in the backyard when I'm in third grade. So it was a brilliant call after that, then we could be like, okay, it was worth taking the five-yard penalty. But that's, you know, we know what it's going to evolve into anyway. That's very fair. Absolutely. I love the Broncos thing so much. And I love the quotes after like, like Russell Wilson didn't get it at all. He's just like, the crowd was great today. And when they asked him about and then Giovante Williams seemed to have some fun with it. He's like, that actually really helped.

Like, can they do that every game? So I hope that that's a recurring theme. And we see that Sunday night. All right. Last one. And then we'll get to the mailback. Sure. The San Francisco 49ers will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl or the Baltimore Ravens

will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. And I actually looked up the aisle. Let me give you the odds for this one while you think about it. Ravens are plus 950 to get there. 49ers are plus 850 to get there. So they're very, very close. in terms of the betting markets? I have a clear answer for this one.

I'm not going to pretend to be a good guess for this one. I have a clear answer for two reasons. And it is the San Francisco 49ers. Number one, I picked the Niners to make the Super Bowl before the season when I hopped on with my friend Scott Van Pelt. So I have to stick with that at this point. I can't go back on it. I would like to after the Tray Lance injury and after Tray Lance didn't look very good

the first week plus before he got injured. But I'm stuck with it now and I'm not going to go back on it at this point. Number two. Wait, hold on. Hold on. You would like to switch it based on the injury or how he looked? Both. My whole point of asking this question is I feel like the Niners are flying under the radar. Like, I know that Jimmy Garapolo is not the best quarterback in the NFL, but I feel like it's a mistake when I hear people say their ceiling is capped with Jimmy Garoppolo.

Like the last two times he's been healthy, they've been an interception away from the Super Bowl, and they've been in the Super Bowl. So I'm not like Jimmy Garoppolo's agent and telling you he's the greatest thing ever. But we've learned over a pretty big sample that that offense works with Jimmy Garapolo. And so I kind of feel like, you know, we're talking a lot of the Eagles and the Bucks and Packers and we'll always get mentioned. Like the 49ers to me, with that, it sounds so weird to say, your quarterback gets injured. It's a huge bummer. We all wanted to watch Trey Lance this year. But like they're positioned to get to the Super Bowl.

Like I almost like their odds as much as anyone in the NFC. So that was kind of why I wanted to talk about the 49ers. So that's kind of why I threw this in here. You're sadly, very smart and thoughtful. And that's a really good point. I will say when people talk about, oh, you need to have this caliber of quarterback to win the Super Bowl.

I do think sometimes like, watch Joe Flacco win a Super Bowl. I watch Nick Foles win a Super Bowl. I watched Carson Went to take the Eagles most of the way to a Super Bowl. I saw Eli Manning win two Super Bowls. Like, yes, if you have a worst quarterback, You need to have more around them, especially on the defensive side of the ball.

But this idea that you have to have a certain caliber of quarterback like a tier one or a tier two quarterback to quote our friend Mike Sando. You know, it helps. You'd rather have it. But you don't need to have that to win. And Jimmy Gropolo, to your point, very, very well-spoken, I absolutely agree that he can be the quarterback for them in the Super Bowl. What I will say concerns me. So the other thing we know about Jimmy Giroppolo is that he struggles to stay healthy. And the Niners, too.

If Traillands got hurt in week 13, might only be five, six games to Jimmy. That could be pretty good. They need Jimmy for 14 games because didn't they cut Nate Sedfeld? Yeah, he's on the Lions now. Yeah. Oh, wow. So who is there, who is the backup now if Jimmy did get hurt? That's a great question.

I would have to look that up. I have no idea. Is it Brock Purdy? Am I wrong to think it's Brock Purdy's in the discussion here? Was he on the Niners at some point? I will say that I think the Niners are. Like, I think flying under the radar is a good way to put it in terms of just, you know, like, I think people have ridden them off as okay.

They're now in trouble. And I think if Jimmy can stay healthy, you're 100% correct. They can be a Super Bowl contender. The defense is really good. I think we know they have the weapons to help out Jimmy Garoppolo. We still haven't even seen George Kittle play this season and they're going to be better with George Kittle in the lineup. So to me, absolutely.

I think they are still a Super Bowl contender with Jimmy Garoppolo in the fold. Mike Wargani's producer chimes in that. You're right. Brock Purdy, what a poll by you. See, I told you it's going to be all downhill from here for guests. And then I think I interrupted you in the beginning. But the other thing working for the Niners, of course, is the conference, right? I mean, they're going to have easier teams to go through. I did just want to get the Ravens in here because I do feel like their start

offensively is flying a little under the radar with the way they melted down. Like, Mara Jackson looks incredible through the first two games with. this supporting cast and Rashad Bateman that play last week and they still have Mark Andrew. So I just sort of have my eye on them like it's going to be a tough robe. There's no doubt about it. I have questions about their defense. But I was looking at this season going, is this offense going to look any different? Like, why should I believe that it's going to be back to where it was a few years ago?

But through the first two games, I think it has been pretty impressive. But I'm with you. I would take the Niners to answer the question for sure. Yeah. And I mean, you know, I think the Ravens are going to be good. I think they are certainly going to be, you know, a play. I think they're the best team in the AFC North than I did before the season began. And I don't think anything I've seen so far.

It makes me think that I should feel differently about that opinion. But they're already dealing with injuries in the secondary. And it's week three. And that's what destroyed them last year. So I think they are a team that more so than most other teams, they have to add help before the trade deadline or from a veteran who gets cut from another team. I think they need to add a pass rusher, maybe a corner. to add death with Kyle Fuller out for the year,

and maybe a wide receiver, because they are really dependent on Rashad Babin. And even Devin Duvonne, who caught two touchdowns in week one, ended up being hurt for that final drive because he suffered a concussion. So as good as Duverne has looked through a week and a half, I think they could use a Will Fuller

who mysteriously is just not playing football this year for some reason. Good point. I totally forgot about him. I haven't, and then the last time I thought about him was probably when I was updating my free agency rankings in, like, June. And since then, he's probably one of the only names still on there. So that is interesting.

Yeah, if they're in the mix there in the middle of the season and like where they are in the division in the conference, then it would not surprise me there. You know, they seem to know when to be aggressive to go out and make a move and add somebody. All right. I think that was a successful first edition of pick a take, right? I do not want to be held to the takes I picked, to be clear. These are not binding takes. You should not yell at me in week six that I picked a take, but I, I, the minor is what I like. Some of them I like, some of them just seem like the lesser of two evils, which means it's a good segment.

We are going to get to the mailbag, and producer Mike Wargon even set up an email address, because if you're not on Twitter, good job by you, if you're not on Twitter, fantastic job by you, right? So you can always tweet at me with your questions, but if you're listening and you're saying, I'm not on Twitter, I want to email a question, the Scramble Mailbag at your. Gmail.com. Very simple. The scramble mailbag at gmail.com. So get questions into me for next week's episode. Let's get to a few of these as we close out the show. Matt asks, the bills seem nearly unstoppable. But are there any defenses you think actually match up well against Buffalo, thanks to personnel and or scheme? And then his follow-up is, as an add-on, how do you think Buffalo's

defense would fare against Buffalo's offense? Ooh. Okay. I like the like the Buffalo defense part of it because I think they would match up really well. I mean, the bills are really good at creating explosive plays on offense. I have the numbers. I lost the numbers. Okay. So in their wins over the past couple of years since 2020, since Josh Allen kind of made that explosive leap to being great, when they win, they've had 43, 30 plus yard plays in their 26 victory. So about one and a half per game. And their losses, nine losses, only five, 30 plus yard plays. Now, this doesn't include the playoffs, doesn't include that Chiefs game where they had a bunch of big plays, but typically when they win, they're creating more explosive plays. And the Bill's defense, since Sean McDermott got there, has been the best defense in football by a comfortable margin at avoiding big plays. 71 30-plus yard plays, 20 fewer than anybody else in football since the start of 2017. So I think the Bill's defense would match up well with the Bill's offense. Do I think there are other teams who match up well? That is a tougher question because I would have said the Rams and the Rams did not match up well with the bills when they played in week one.

I think you want, I would say you want a defense that could create takeaways, which Josh Allen, as good as he is, can still turn the football over. I think you want a defense that can create pass pressure with their front floor, which is not different from any of the defenses, but I think that's a big part of it. So you don't have to blitz and you can kind of hopefully contain or chase down Allen with pressure. And I think you want speed. I think you need speed to deal with Diggs and McKenzie and speed to deal with Allen as a scrambler. So to me, the defense that comes to mind is the Los Angeles Chargers, a team that has a great front for that can only rush for and create pressure, that can put five people in the secondary that has the weapons in Durwin James and J.C. Jackson to deal with Diggs and deal with Allen as a scrambler. But Bradenell is also abandoned analytics. So I don't know if that I can pick the charges for anything anymore.

now that our savior, now that the guy we've all counted on, has abandoned us and left us on the internet to argue about analytics on Twitter. It's been shocking. I mean, Mike McDeanio just comes in and takes the belt from him. Incredible. The dolphins might win the Super Bowl. I mean, when you're operating that quickly, just going in there and I don't know if you stuffed Staley, I guess he wouldn't be stuffing Staley into a locker.

I don't know, staying out with the jocks. I don't even know where to go with this metaphor. He's not sitting with us. He's not sitting with us at the Lackley. lunch table anymore. Unbelievable. He put us in the locker shield. That's the opposite of what I want.

That's not what we want. I think those were good answers. The Bill's defense against the Bill's offense is fun because there's all this talk about play out of a too high shell or no, we're going to be aggressive. What I like about the bills is they seem to be able to adapt. And their coaching staff with McDermin and Leslie Frazier will be like, what gives us our best chance to win. And then it's what you said about the four-man pass rush.

I mean, their pass rush right now looks very, feisty with Von Miller added there. They've got the safeties maybe to limit some of those explosive plays. So as long as they get those corners healthy, I think that's a good one. The bucks came to mind a little bit, you know? I think they won't be scared. They'll just be aggressive. All right.

Let's try to make some plays here. And then the last one that came to mind was the Cowboys, who probably not as talented and not as complete as those other defenses. But like Micah Parsons just right now, like is going to. wreck a few plays, maybe like 15 plays a game. And then we know Trevon Diggs is going to go for those interceptions. He might know Stefan. I mean, who else would know how to cover Stefan Diggs than Trayvon digs? So those are some of the other ones that came to mine. Okay. My friend, Roy Burton from the BS line chimes in. What are realistic contract numbers for Jalen Hertz and Tua, assuming both get

resigned this offseason? And obviously, this is a sort of a wide variance here. I mean, Are they playing at an MVP level? Are they playing at a pretty good level? Are they playing at a mediocre level? But just what were your... I guess if they're getting signed to extensions, that means they play pretty well this season, right? I mean, if they're mediocre, then you're not really exploring that.

So let's assume that both play as, let's say, like, top 10 quarterbacks this year. Do you have any thoughts about what kind of numbers are we looking at? I mean, I went back and thought about all the... quarterbacks who were on rookie contracts who signed long-term extensions. And I thought about the last one who didn't get like the market value deal, which is whatever the last young, successful quarterback on a rookie deal got plus an adjustment for the cap. Like, you know, when Carson Wentz got paid, Jared Gough got paid right after or vice versa. DeShon Walson got paid just a little bit more right afterwards. And then after that it was Mahomes got a separate deal, Alan got a separate

deal, but they got more in a different kind of structure of deal. The last guy to take less. than the market. Get the kind of a mid-tier deal after his rookie contract was Ryan Tannihill with the Dolphins. It was a while ago down at this point. So to me, I think what that tells me is that if Jill and Hertz continues to play the way Gillen Hertz has, which is great. If Tua Tango Bilaloa plays the way he's played, which is very good, although he's been

a little lucky with dropped interception so far this year, if those guys are playing at the level they've been so far, they're getting paid top of the market deals. They're not settling for less, nor should they. No one has over the past five or six years. So to me, I think about the contract that comes to mind for me, at least at first, is the Kyler Murray contract, which was five years and 230. 230 and a half? 230.

5. Yep. So that's the number for me that they're going to try and top and will top. I think to me it's probably five and 240. That is also assuming that they signed before Joe Burrow signs his extension. Because to me, Joe Burrow is going to be 50 million a year. Joe Burrough is going to be 5 and 250. So if they sign after Joe Burrow,

well, suddenly two is probably getting 5 and 252 or 254, because we know when these guys sign extensions, they usually get more than the last guy who signed. So they may not seem like $50 million or quarterbacks right now, but if they keep that up, that's what they're going to get. And Lamar, of course, also is hanging out there. What kind of season is he going to have? And then are they going to come to an agreement after the season?

And yeah, it's like I was just looking at the list and it's what you said. There's not really an in-between class for players like this. I mean, nine quarterbacks are making at least 40 million per year. And so if we're saying they're going to perform like top 10 quarterbacks and then get paid after their rookie deal, that's like the absolute floor. And what's their motivation for taking like Dak Prescott got four years for 160? But if they play at that level, what's their motivation to say, yeah, we'll take that deal. Now, I know it's all right.

It's a lot of money. Like if you're offering me $160 million, I'm very motivated to go ahead and sign that. But this is a very different scenario. And like you said, if they wait, the price is only going up. The price does not come down unless you're saying, all right, well, what if I stink next year? And all of a sudden, I'm in a tough spot. But most of the time, you're going to be looking pretty good there. So yeah, Kyler got five years, $2.30.5, $46.1 million per season.

It sounds like nuts when you're just saying, wait, you're going to give these quarterbacks, that kind of money. But I'm with you. That's the neighborhood, at least, that we're talking about if both sides are at a spot where they say we actually want to get a deal done. Now, I've heard, Jill, that when you went to the ringer, you held out for $48 million a year. Is that accurate? That's right. Yeah. Yeah, it was a similar. And they threw in this nice microphone that I have here as well. So it was a sweet deal. All right. Shane McNichael on the Shane Train asks, inspired by Shohei Otani, which NFL player would be the best if he had to play both ways. I feel like you're, I feel like you will have like 30 great

answers for this. I don't know. Some guests, you're like, all right, this answer is in their wheelhouse. I could just see you like thinking about this at some point and coming up with someone good. I know I'm putting a lot of pressure on you, but did you have someone in mind? I have a few, but I have a clarification about the question that I want you to answer because I don't think it's contained within the question. Is this a 22 man starting lineup? Or is it's all the same player for all 11 spots on offense and defense, or is it just one player playing both sides on offense and defense, but the other rest of the team is whoever random other players?

I thought it was the latter, that it's just one player. You can play linebacker in tight end or whatever, you know, pick two positions. Yep. So we don't need this person to have a wide range of skills. Like they don't have to be able to play quarterback and kick whatever. That's a different question. Great. So that rules on a lot of people for me.

I think if you were going to pick a player who could play both spots, I think the easy, not the easiest, because easiest is the wrong word, but the place where the skills and range of skills you have is most similar to me is probably offensive and defensive line. So I focused there. And I thought, who is a guy who can be physically dominant on both sides of the football? And Aaron Donald's, of course, first guy that comes to mind. But Aaron Donald's small. And I think as good as Aaron Donald is, he's better as a penetrating tackle than he would be

as an offensive tackle or a guard. just a different range, different size. It's just tough. So to me, the guy I chose wasn't someone who really came to mind to me immediately, but I thought Cam Hayward came to mind for me as a 6-5, 2-95 guy, guy who is so physical but also so athletic, someone who can be a penetrating tackle, but also play as a 1, and 3, play as a 5 technique.

You know, he can play all these different spots, do these on different roles in the line that I think he would be flexible and good as a guard. So to me, I think I could see Cam Hayward being a Pro Bowl caliber guard as well as being the incredible defensive tackle or interior defensive end, the role that he plays now for the Steelers. So Hayward wasn't maybe not the first guy that came to mind, but I think the one that makes sense for me. Yeah, I think you did a better job of answering this realistically and giving a thought. I was just like, oh, who would it be sweet to see play another position? And I was like, could Michael Parsons be George Kittle if they just moved him to the offensive side of the ball?

Like he's physical enough. He's a great athlete. I don't know. I'm just like after the first two games he played, you could probably tell me he could play any position and play all the positions and he would be fine. And then I was trying to think of, I didn't look up all of his measurables,

but I was trying to think of like, could Minka Fitzpatrick? Like if you put Minka Fitzpatrick on the bucks right now, could he catch a hundred balls? Like, probably. I like that one. That's a really good one.

I think his athletic is, and plays up there for sure. I think he has really good instincts, and I think that's tougher to translate, but I do think he could play that role for sure. I mean, is an answer, Corderole Patterson? We've seen play two or three very different roles at the NFL level,

you know, being a maybe one of the best kick returners in the history of football, being a wide receiver, and now being a traditional running back and doing running back very well, like does that athleticism translate to the point where you could play safety and play at a high level or play quarterback and play at a high level?

You know, I think there's obvious answers, and I think there's players who have sort of a different sort of skills that could be valuable. And I think Parsons is such a freak that he could do it. But I think there's a lot of players who, if they had to, again, if you'd still be NFL, hey, tomorrow, everyone has to change positions. You can't play the same one you have previously. I think there are guys who would stand out. Maybe you have a range of success now, even without having to play two sides of the ball. Debo as like a hybrid like safety nickel. I mean, he already likes to just bring pain to anybody who's in his way.

His mentality plays like a defensive player. So he was another one that came to mine. All right. That was a fun mailbag, Bill. Thank you for joining me. This was awesome. Thank you for being the first guest on the scramble. What can you, can you plug your columns, the Bill Barnwell show, debatable?

Am I missing anything? ESPN Daily. ESPN Daily with Pablo Torre sometimes. just go to ESPN for football stuff. Eventually you'll find me. It'll be like, you know, you'll see each other people and then you'll see me. So just check that out. We always go out and seek Bill Barnwell's work here.

So thank you again for joining me. Definitely read Bill. Thanks again to him. Thanks to Mike Wargon for producing additional production supervision by Connor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgapal. Stay tuned tomorrow on the Ringer NFL feed. We will have the Ringer NFL preview show with Danny Hyphitz. Ben Solac and Stephen Rees. That will be fantastic. Thanks again, everyone, and we will talk to you next week.