The Ringer NFL Show - Placing Your Week 1 and Season-Long Bets | The Ringer NFL Show

Episode Date: September 11, 2020

Join NFL analyst Warren Sharp and Joe House every Friday to talk about one thing—gambling! Each week, Warren and Joe will prepare and inform you on all things gambling heading into the weekend. On today’s show, the guys recap 'Thursday Night Football' (5:42); discuss division odds, win totals, common betting misconceptions (21:23), Week 1 spreads, and over/unders; and finalize their bets (61:08). Hosts: Warren Sharp and Joe House Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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didn't tell me to say that but i'm telling you it's football season so it's foot long season that means making good calls all season long starting with your game day order you know me my hungry homies when i say that eating too much buffalo chicken wings can't be a bad call. Is there such a thing as too many? I'm here to tell you that the answer is yes. 12 is a fine number. 24 is not the right number. I'm going to have to confess it was a whoops. This week, how about this? Make a good call. Choose for yourself, and this is my number one favorite. I go for the turkey breast. I like the turkey breast with the shreddice. That's just shredded lettuce. little bit of the red onion, a little bit of pickle, and then I tell them they're very sensible at

my subway. When I say I want a very light mayo just to add a little bit of a texture to it and a little bit of a heightened flavor. They do it. They do it in just the right quantity. Yes, please, sign me up for that subway deliciousness. Another good call is ordering and paying contact free in the subway app. It's on my phone right now. duh. You get quick pickup or delivery. It's easy. Just tap, tap, boom, delicious foot long. Okay, let's get on with the Friday. Ringer NFL show. Hey, everyone, welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I am Warren Sharp, an NFL analyst, founder of Sharp Football Analysis.com. I'm joined by a ringer legend, Joe House. Joe, tell everybody what we're going to cover in this show, buddy. I mean, this is incredible.

What a time to be alive, Warren Sharp. I am indeed a ringer legend in my own mind. You know, the old adage that applies here, Mr. Sharp, they say you should never meet your heroes. Well, we're on the wrong side of that. I've been a fan and a subscriber to your content, a fan of you, a follower of you on the Twitter machine. So when Bill Simmons a couple weeks ago reached out and he's like,

hey, we got Sharp. What do you think about, you know, hooking up with them? I said to him, oh, my God, this is, I mean, I'm, I'm intimidated. So the very first thing when we were all on a little text thread, I said to you, I said, Sharpie, I need

you to insult me so I can get over this fanboy thing. So the text you sent right away, house, you are a colossal shithead for agreeing to do this podcast. And you know what? You got half of it right. But look at us. There's a couple guys from the DMV, you in Northern Virginia,

me here in the District of Champions. We are in front of America. We are going to try and help America in this moment of need with some outstanding NFL advice. I'm excited, brother. I am excited, too, because we're going to be breaking down so many things. We're going to give you guys some tips and ideas and thoughts and some of House's bets and we're going to run those by me. And it's just going to be an awesome, awesome time to go through things. And we're sitting here, drinking some coffee, reminiscing about Super Bowl LIV. That was the last game played prior to this Thursday night game, which we just witnessed House. We saw the Kansas City Chiefs take down the Houston Texans. It really wasn't as close as the final score indicated. But why don't

you tell us a little bit about some of your thoughts from watching that game? it felt extraordinarily predictable. There was so little of it that surprised me. I think the most surprising thing was how cohesive, the first drive by the Texans looked. They looked coherent. It looked like they had a game plan. I thought, oh, wait a minute, maybe.

It was a very nice mix of run and pass. I liked what, you know, David Johnson's doing out there in the way that they were using him. But it seems as though they had 10 total plays in the entire offensive playbook in the entire scheme. And the Chiefs got the ball and scored without being matched 31 straight points and game was over. Yeah, it was, well, the way that I would break it down and summarize kind of how we saw that first quarter unfold was a really good game script by Tim Kelly, the new offensive coordinator for the Houston Texans. He was their previous tight ends coach, moved to offensive coordinator. Calling plays this season, Bill O'Brien's taking a step back from play calling. You could tell the two of them worked on some of their scripting.

And we see this often in some young coaches and some coaches that just don't understand the rhythm of play calling and the recall that's needed to go back to certain plays that were working well. It just looked completely disjointed once that game script wore off. And you're right. They were a lot of quick passes from Deshaun Watson, a lot of mix of run pass. And after that, it got very predictable. So the thing that I'm kind of curious about is the chiefs are a known quantity. And Houston, you know, it's one of its most glaring weaknesses was it's secondary last year.

all of their secondary graded below average from the PFF guys. And it doesn't look like they did anything to address that. No, they didn't do anything to address a lot of things on the defensive side of the ball. I mean, their pass rush has gotten significantly compromised. They were 31st last year in quarterback pressure rate, and they really did nothing to improve that. They're just hoping that, oh, we've got a healthy JJ Watt, and so he's going to be good enough. Whitney Mercilis has gotten. worse as he's aged. And this team just struggles to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks. And that was

my fear heading into this game was the simple fact that I don't see enough here out of this Houston, Texas defense to slow down Patrick Mahomes. And so they're going to have to try to score. But the problems with them trying to come out and score were a few elements. Number one, I was concerned about the play caller, and that ended up coming to fruition. Number two, you don't have DeAndre Hopkins there anymore. He was this third down conversion machine. He was the go-to guy for Deshaun Watson to feel comfortable throwing him the ball on these third downs. And that was also absent. So that was a concern for me. And just then their ability in general to sustain drives offensively without a lot of firepower was a big problem coupled with the fact that part of my

pregame research, and this is why I love doing the show house, because we're going to be able to share some of these nuggets during the course of the season on Fridays so the people are ready to place their bets on Sundays. But in that game, everybody's thinking back to that game where last season in the playoffs, 21 nothing after the first quarter and it was a close game and then all of a sudden, you know, the chiefs come back. The reality is 14 of those 21 points that the Texans score were basically muffed punts, blocked punt for touchdown. There was a blown coverage. That gave him the other seven points. That's 21 right there. The other 10 drives, the entire game, 10 points on the scoreboard. Deshaun Watson's great in garbage time. And I love seeing him playing from behind if you've got them

on your fantasy team or something. But I just feel bad for him in this offense. I just feel bad for him on this team, to be honest with you. Yeah, it is weird that so much time has elapsed between that playoff game and this moment, and it felt very familiar. I mean, not very much has changed. But let's take a step back. Like, let's think about how extraordinary it is this moment right now. We had Thursday night football.

There were fans in the stands. I could hear fan noise. Now, I hope that in that venue, everybody, it looked like when they showed the fans in the stands, it was like some distancing and so forth. You know, only people that arrived together seem to be together. but there was a real sort of sense of normalcy to the whole thing. And I think that's encouraging.

I'm hoping that, you know, we didn't seem like there were any significant injuries that came out of the game. But one of the things that we've been, you know, sort of talking about, you know, offline in the run up to this season, and I will tell you right now, speaking of a return to normalcy, I won my first bet of the season. How yes. I played the Chiefs Houston over, which I got at 53 earlier today. I moved up.

I think it got all way up to 54 and a half at some point. But the reason I played that over was both because of the recency bias of that playoff game, which went way over back in January. But also the notion that the offense might have an advantage at this stage. of the proceedings over the defense because of the continuity, in particular with the chiefs and all the firepower that they bring to bear. But writ large, this idea of offenses having an advantage over defenses seems to feel like there should be some overs out there for us. Sharpie. What do you think? I don't disagree whatsoever. I do think that there are some games that have

value towards the over. And I also think second half overs, you know, I think the defenses are going to be at their freshest in the first half. And that is when tackling is going to be at its best. It's in the second half that I think some of those things are going to fall off a little bit. But let me dive into the closest thing that I can get to this game, which is, or to this season in 2020, which is the 2011 season, which was a lockout season. They were trying to negotiate a new CBA. players could not enter the facility until the last days of July, similar sort of to what we witnessed in 2020. So from the Super Bowl onward, they couldn't get into the facilities. There were no many camps, rookie camps, any of that type of thing during that 2011 season. However, there was a couple

differences. And the primary difference was the fact that they actually played every single one of the preseason games once they came back in late July. They had practices. Yes, there were restrictions there, just like there were here. But they actually had some of these. games got some experience with hitting and tackling during those preseason games. And we had none of those here. The only game that was canceled there was the Hall of Fame game, that first one. Every other, every team had four preseason games equal amount. We didn't get any of that. So what happened to those first couple of weeks of football in 2011? Well, let's go back and look at it. The odds makers set the average projected total point scored between both teams right around the same

exact total from 2010 and a little bit higher than it was in 2009. So very close in proximity to what it was before, if not slightly higher. So they didn't expect offenses to fall out. They didn't expect defenses to be strong. They expect stable production. What we ended up seeing was that overs hit at a 73 percent clip the first couple weeks of that season going over by almost five points per game. That is the most that we've ever seen in NFL history for the first two weeks in terms of games that have gone over at a high rate. I think that we're in store for something, maybe not quite as bold as that, but we are going to be in store for bad tackling, sloppy play on the defense and some points. What do you think? So, you know, I want to ask you because

I thought the chief's defense in the third quarter, especially when the game, you know, when they really could inflict their will upon the Texans and ensure that the game, you know, was going to be out of reach. I thought the chiefs, the pressure especially was outstanding. And so, you know, I don't know what the weather was like. I didn't go look and see exactly what the temperature was like, but it looked comfortable. You know, the folks in the stands were wearing hoodies and so forth a little bit. So it looked like decent football weather. But I didn't see on on the chief side of, on the defensive side. I mean, the Texans just could not do anything in the third quarter.

So I was, I was impressed, like the defensive stamina of the chiefs, because I expected, I honestly, as the third quarter went along, I said, oh, I'm going to lose my overbet. Now, the reason that the overcame through is because the chiefs recovered an onside kick and ran it all the way down to the 20 yard line. And then we got a field goal out of it to get over that, that 53 number. So slightly, you know, I mean, that's a lucky, that's a lucky hit. But in terms of that defensive stamina proposition, I didn't see, I was pretty impressed, to be honest with you.

Well, let me say this. I don't know how much of the performance in the third quarter was predicated by the fact that the chiefs controlled so much of that second quarter and that the, their defense was fresh. Like their team, their offense had the ball. The Texans hardly ever had the ball. defense was a little bit more fresh and not as worn down, coupled with the fact that that offense just looked terrible. The first part of that game where they were using their scripting,

they were getting the ball out of Deshaun Watson's hands very quickly. And we did not see that in the second half. He was like looking for receivers and trying to find guys that were open. He just wasn't coming up with that whatsoever. I thought the chiefs obviously, I don't want to say they took their foot off the gas, but they played a very different style than they did late in the season where they were passing all the time. They were running the ball. It was a little rainy. They were just comfortable. I think they knew that they had a good opportunity. The other thing that was different is Steve Spagnolo, he did such a good job adjusting from that first meeting to the second meeting last year. I think just more of that carried over apart from that game scripting.

So I think the one thing that I did notice, though, when we're talking about totals for the Sunday games, is the fact that tackling was pretty crappy house. Like I saw so many bad tackles, miss tackles in this game that normally are not going to be made. You could try to blame it a little bit on the rain or whatnot, but I think that we are going to see that carry over to Sunday. So that's something that we're going to keep an eye on because some of the games, when we get to the end of this conversation tonight, we're going to talk through and try and come up with kind of a winning tally of a

handful of plays that, you know, I'm definitely going to make and try and give all the rest of us. Now, look, I am nothing, if not an average Joe. I mean, some people might say below average, but you are literally a sharp. I mean, your background, and in fact, I'm going to make you go through it a little bit

because it was a revelation to me. I mean, I was not aware of all the analytic support that you provide and the way that you, your own self, in terms of wagering and some of the syndicate stuff that you've done. I think we should share that with all our NFL wagering community out there. Well, so my background, I went to school for civil engineering, graduated, got a degree, worked in that industry of engineering for a while. But while I was doing that, I was also building math models and trying to come up with the ability to predict. I only focused on the NFL ways to predict spreads and totals in the NFL.

I got really good at that. I was sharing a lot of that information publicly on message boards at the time. And some syndicate groups started paying attention and they troll those boards and they comment and they private message me, hey, would you like to come out to Las Vegas? And we want to sit down and talk to a little bit about some things. So I go out to Las Vegas, talk to those guys. It's a little intimidating. You know, somebody out of the blue wants to talk to you and bring you to dinner and

they'll pick you up in their big black SUV. And, you know, you think that you're going to get whacked or something and your model stolen, but it was a great first step in that experience. And so, like, lo and behold, like things evolve. I end up doing a lot more with analytics. I get into charting data and start writing a book. That gets noticed by a lot of NFL teams. Some of those teams reach out to me. I start working with some of the offense coordinator, some teams themselves directly, helping provide counsel in terms of game planning and strategizing for upcoming opponents. And I'm still on the side working in the sports betting sphere, working and providing plays to,

you know, obviously I have a website, sharp football analysis, but also working privately with some of the bigger syndicate betting groups and getting down on some games that we really think have edges. And so that's what I do. This is my full-time job. I'm really only working. I quit the engineering thing. I work betting and sharp football analysis, et cetera, five months out of the year.

And that supplies my income for the rest of the season, you know, helping teams and whatnot. But I obviously spend months writing a book and I spend months researching and going to the combine and meeting with different coordinators and talking about things. So it is a year-round process and I'm a workaholic, but it's a lot of fun. And so that's what we're looking to share with these guys. Yeah. I mean, and the NFL is a year-round process. See, I knew about your background in terms of the analytics

and the contributions you made to teams, like teams tapping you for some of your insights. I didn't have the understanding of, you know, the actual like getting flown out to Vegas to sit down and make sure, you know, those guys, they want to see the flesh. They want to, they want to see, look you in the eye and see whether or not you're, you're, you're, you're, you're full of it, right? I would never, ever get, first of all, they would never ask me for my

opinion on anything, but I wouldn't pass that test, right? Because I'm just a regular recreational gambler that enjoys, you know, the entertainment aspect of it. So I want to talk to you about the entertainment aspect of this incredible moment. Like right now, at this point in the NFL season, the whole season is in front of us. Everything is possible. Everything is possible. nothing is impossible except for the Houston Texans going to I'm picturing Kevin

that's the only impossible thing and I'm just picturing Kevin Garnett yelling at the top of his long as anything's possible anything is possible like look I'm going to say so many bad things about the Jacksonville Jaguars but they can go 16 and 0 as we sit here right now on Thursday night

it's possible but let's talk about potential division winners because though that's really you know let's let's go head the steak is in front of us let's go ahead and get a couple bites going here how yeah so let's talk first big picture okay what a lot of people think when they bet games and they look at numbers is they think that the favorites are the better teams and when you look at the eight divisions out there

you tend to think well if the las Vegas odds makers know what they're doing because this is their real jobs and they and they study this and they put up lines they're probably going to be right predicting who's going to win these divisions. Like they're going to put odds there and they're probably going to be right more often than they're not. But for the casual public, what you need to realize when I go through these eight division winners, the last two years, if you take out the New England Patriots because they win for what house, 20 straight years, they won the AFC East, if you ignore them and say,

okay, there's been seven other teams that have won the division each year. That's 14 total teams. How many of those favored teams before the start of the season of the 14? actually win the division. I'm going to guess less than half. I don't know exactly the number, but less than half, I would say. So you're sharper than you play yourself to be because the answer is only five of 14. That's only 36%.

Very few of these teams actually pull it off. And yet people look at the odds and think, oh, yeah, well, these are the favorite teams. They probably are going to get it done. There is value in betting on teams. to win the division that aren't currently favored to win the division. That's a fact. But there are obviously going to be some of these teams that win. So let's go through it first in the NFC house. I'm going to name the four NFC division favorites right now by the odds makers. You tell me if you like any of these guys to win the division based on their odds, you tell me if you think that

there's an underdog in one of the divisions that you like better. Dallas in the NFC East, the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North, the New Orleans Saints in the NFC. South and the defending NFC Conference Champions, San Francisco 49ers in the NFC West. Any of those four teams you think do get it done or don't get it done? So I think the NFC West and the NFC North are going to be slightly insane this year. And kind of for different reasons. I think the West is going to be insane because of the top to bottom talent in that division. And I think that, you know, Seattle is, is likely to come out of there. I like everything about, you know, sort of the, the stories of their continuity.

I know who they've returned. I trust Russell Wilson. The 49ers, is there, is there, is there, is there, is there Super Bowl hangover? You know, they have two receivers that, that are, you know, hurt. Is the running back by committee thing going to work again? this year. I don't know. Arizona is a darling. Everybody loves Arizona this year. Everybody loves Arizona hitting their over and as a potential playoff entrant. And, you know, this is an incredible year. We have two new playoff slots this year. Yeah, I love that. The odds for,

you know, teams, you know, will a team make a playoff, you know, are, are interesting to look at. And I don't, I don't have an answer for the, for the West. I mean, I, I would, I would, I personally would pick Seattle. And I don't know what, do you have that number? Yeah, Seattle's plus 220 to win the NFC West. They are projected to come in second place. The Rams are plus 550. Cardinals are plus 700.

I don't argue with you one bit on the Seattle front. I do think that the 49ers do take a little bit of a step back. It's going to be interesting to see this week one game against the Arizona Cardinals. We'll talk about week one games later on. So stay tuned for that. what do you make of the NFC East House? So the East, I just think it's Dallas. I mean, I think that Mike McCarthy,

sort of the liberating effect, I think we are going to see, I'm going to compare it to what happened with the Golden State Warriors. This might be nonsense, but the difference between Mark Jackson and Steve Kerr and what Steve Kerr was able to unlock with the Warriors and maximize the potential of that offensive arsenal

out there in Golden State, I think the same dynamic could be at play with these Dallas Cowboys. The one thing that Mike McCarthy was successful at with Aaron Rogers was early on tapping into maximizing their offensive efficiency. I mean, I, you know, over the course of that time, that relationship grew stale or whatever. But I just think Dallas is loaded on both sides of the ball.

They have that continuity aspect that we're kind of looking for in this, in the, in the pandemic, right? You know, because they didn't suffer a ton of opt-outs. And they have a lot of their crucial players on both sides of the ball. Everybody's back. Dax playing for a contract. I just think that they have so many weapons. and I personally hate it because I grew up as a Washington almost professional fan. And so I can't possibly root for Dallas except for the fact that I already bet them at minus 175 to win the NFC East.

Because I just, there's too many question marks with the Eagles line play, especially on the offensive side for me to think that anybody other than Dallas is going to win the NFC East. Yeah, Dallas, I won't argue with that at all. I do think that if the season started in April or May, I think the Eagles would have said the best chance. But they lost multiple starters along that offensive line. Jalen Rager hasn't been 100%. He's missed a lot of time. He's a rookie. That's not ideal.

You need a guy like that in camp practicing. So that's problematic as well. You're dealing with injury when you're going to get Alshon Jeffrey back. This was a team that had to win so many games last year. just thanks to Carson Wentz. And actually I think Carson Wentz, potentially a Dark Horse candidate for MVP. I just don't think the odds are high enough.

I had a lot of success betting Lamar Jackson to win the MVP last season. But this season, I just don't think that the odds are quite high enough. But Carson Wentz is the perfect example because of how he throws his team on his back. Last year, this is the guy only quarterback in the NFL to pass in history, to pass for 4,000 yards while having zero wide receivers, it clips 500 yards.

He was making it happen with so many backups and bad receivers that it's like, okay, maybe he can do it again. But the odds just aren't in your favor betting on anomalies to happen again. And just like you alluded to, and I want to talk about Dallas later on and dive a little bit deeper into the 2020 Cowboys, I 100% agree with you. And I love your analogy to Steve Kerr. You are basically talking about betting on coaching. and betting on coaching is a very smart thing to do.

It's actually a very real thing in the NFL. So many people, because the cameras don't show coaches much. You know, the coaches are just standing on the sideline, blending in with a bunch of other guys that aren't wearing shoulder pads. And so much of what we do, especially with the fantasy football world, is focused on players, you know, my quarterback, my running back, my wide receiver one. You're looking at the guys that are out on the football field. coaching in the NFL is probably more vital than in any of the other major sports out there.

You're trying to get these 11 guys to cohesively do something together and come up with this game plan to execute something. You only have about 60 plays a game that varies from game to game team to team, that you can utilize that offense and that group to come up with a specific play to execute. It's not easy to do. And oftentimes there are bad coaches that are good teams to bet against and there are good coaches that are good to bet on. And I agree, I think Dallas got rid of a bad coach and may have added what would be a big upgrade. Yeah, I mean, we did see a lot of Jason Garrett.

He was always clapping. I mean, you know, he was a very encouraging coach. He would make a hell of a fourth grade teacher. In fact, my kid might, you know, if Jason Garrett wasn't with the New York Giants, by the way, that's a team that I have an under on for the wind total. If he wasn't with the Giants, I mean, I try and sign them up to come down here

and help my kid out in fourth grade. Yeah, he's silly. He's a silly coach. All right, quick break, my Friday football friends, I want to tell you about Fandul. By now you have heard

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I think the Saints are super talented. The biggest question to me with the Saints and both sides of the ball, you know, one of the things that jumped out of me doing the research was how good they are on run defense. I don't know why I forgot that or slept on it or whatever. The only thing that scares me with the Saints is they have a horrendous record against the spread the first two weeks of the season. And I have no reason. I have no explanation for that. Why is that one?

Other than coaching. Well, to me, it's coaching. There's no other logical explanation. You're 100% correct on that. It's getting the team ready. It's the philosophy. It's what you're using those. couple of games for. It's going to be so interesting. The one thing we didn't cover in the earlier

section talking about, you know, will offense or defense be ahead, is that we've heard some of these coaches, including Pete Carroll and multiple others, come out and actually say, we are going to use our entire 53-man roster here. We're going to rotate guys in because I personally, I know we didn't see any of that. We saw a couple guys go out. They flashed a graphic, but I don't know how long those guys might be lost for or if they entered the game late, but like re-entered the game late again. fear that we're going to see a lot of soft tissue injuries and strains and muscle pulls and things like that with these guys going from having zero games to get ready to all of a sudden having to play full speed, a full game, 60 snaps. And so it is smart to rotate guys in and to utilize

some of that depth. So I'm curious as to whether or not we're going to see that. But maybe that's what Sean Payton likes to do to start the games on regular seasons. But either way, you're absolutely right. This is a very good team to bet against historically the first couple weeks of the season. But even having said all that, I still like them, honestly, to win that division. I don't,

I wouldn't surprise me if Tampa won. And I have enormous respect for Ariens as a coach. And I think he and Tom Brady are going to make sweet offensive love together, especially with all those weapons. It's because it's just

incredible. It's extremely exciting and what a game, you know, to just, we're going to put it all on the field right here, a crucial divisional game right out of the box for those two teams that can set the tone for who's going to win that division. I also think Atlanta might be kind of sneaky. I mean, they still have a Dan Quinn problem. And I don't know what they're doing to, you know, fix that to work around it, but they still have all those weapons. And they're, they're so talented. honestly on both sides of the ball. That's a 10-win team when I sit down and look at the roster or whatever.

The problem they have is they have to play the Saints twice and Tampa twice. And I don't think Carolina is going to do anything this year, but they're also not just like an immediate, you know, dismissed pushover kind of team. So the division is tough. And so, I mean, I don't, that's one of the ones that I think is just going to be kind of a brawl. my inclination is to go ahead and play on New Orleans to win that division. But, you know, I don't know. The North is also crazy to me. We all believe the sentiment, smart people and dumb people think that Green Bay is not going to repeat. It's 13 and three season from last year, right? Right. Yep. But Minnesota, who is the division, favorite has suffered among, you know, the, the worst in terms of opt-outs and, you know,

injuries already. And there's discontinuity for them. You know, Kurt Cousins lost one of his most important deep ball threats in Stefan Diggs. They have line problems and backfield, secondary problems because of opt-out. So I, What do you make of Minnesota? Okay, so let's start with Minnesota. I think that they were one of the most fortunate teams that is due for regression, but nobody's talking about it because the flavor of the week is talking about the Green Bay Packers regression, which is pretty obvious, you know, the record in one-score games and all this is going to

come back to Earth, and that's likely true. But look at some of the things at the Vikings where they excel then. They were the number one healthiest team in the NFL last year. They were the number four team in sack margin last year. They were the number five team in turnover margin last year. They were the number seven team in fumble recovery luck. And fumble recovery luck is a thing. You can look at how often the ball is on the carpet. And whether you're on offense or you're on defense, there's a certain likelihood that you are to recover one of those fumbles. And they were number seven last year in that after being number 32 the year before. So they went, from number 32 all the way to number seven last year. They were also number eight in field goal luck in 2019 after being number 32 in field goal luck in 2018. A lot of good things went their way. And you're 100% correct with some of the guys on defense. You're talking about key cogs of this team like Linvald Joseph and Everson Griffin, Trey Wains. A lot of these guys in the secondary,

like I don't think his play has been at a high level, but Xavier Rhodes is no longer there. So there's a lot of guys on the defensive side of the football that aren't going to be there. The digs thing is massive. And nobody's really talking about their regression. I did take them to fail to hit their win total. And I don't know that I like them to win this division either. And so when you're talking about some of these teams stepping back, we're talking about the Vikings, you're talking about the Packers. And then you also were sharing about how you felt in the NFC South that we're going to have a bottleneck with a bunch of these teams being.

somewhat okay or just battling with one another. There's no walkover games with you liking Atlanta a little bit. What this sort of tells me, and then you also alluded to things in the West, is that Dallas might actually have some decent value to win the entirety of the NFC at the current odds because having that best record is going to put you in a very good position to get that singular first round by. And getting that singular first round by is going to put you in great position to hedge your wager if you want to. So the key is who's going to have the best record in the NFC? And I think their division with Washington and the Giants being kind of seems that are rebuilding,

I think they might have a little bit of edge there. And I think you like that as well, don't you? I sure do. Now, I have one other division I want to talk about. And it's the AFC South because I am curious to hear how, we can split hairs between two teams that I think are like neck and neck. I'm still super impressed and I'm confessing the recency bias by Tennessee. I just think that what they did in that in that playoff run, that revelation and how they showed a football IQ and really the run that

they went on with Tanny Hill through the end of the season. You know, they showed a kind of competitive advantage in strategy that I think they, that looks like a 10 or 11 win team to me. They were turning all of the most important pieces. On the other hand, I love the Indianapolis Colts. I love them. I bet on there over already.

And I bet on they're over last season as well. I'm a huge Frank Reich guy. I think Frank Reich and Philip Rivers together, are going to game plan away from whatever diminishment in arm strength that Rivers has. So help me figure out between Indianapolis and Tennessee. You could just play both of them to make the playoffs and that that's fine. But like which one of those two teams has an advantage to win the division? Okay.

Well, do you want me to go down the Frank Reich rabbit hole with you right now before I talk about the Tennessee Titans? because if you do, I got a lot to talk about on Frank Reich because my love affair for him is very similar, it sounds like, to yours. And with Tennessee, I think the things that are working against them are, number one, they were just really healthy last year. And number two, this was a team that was so on the plus side of efficiency that these things are bound to regress. Like, let me just throw out this statistic for you. Something I look at, especially when I'm looking at a betting games, is average points per minute. Sounds pretty silly. Like, why the hell would you be looking at something

like this? But average points per minute, okay? The NFL average, offenses scored 0.57 points per minute. The best team in the NFL, the Kansas City Chiefs, that Super Bowl champions with like the best quarterback and the best offense, they were at 0.77 points per minute. Okay? So you go from point 57 to 0.77. But when Ryan Tannahill was quarterbacking the Tennessee Titans, they were at 0.99, like, so far beyond the spectrum of anything that could be possible to consider that this is in any way, shape, or form sustainable. They were so far off of that.

Marcus Marriota was obviously well below the curve. Ryan Danahill was way above the Kansas City Chiefs, which were way above the NFL average. So it's just like, can this be sustained? And I don't think it can, but I do love the fact that they are playing the number one easiest schedule of opposing run defenses this year, which should allow their game plans to just carry on what they were doing before. A lot of pre-stamp motion, a lot of play action, letting Derek Henry run wild over people, using heavier personnel groupings to pass out of and catch people by surprise when they load the box on you. And I do like Arthur Smith. So that is a very difficult division to forecast. I think the better bet with seven teams eligible to be taken for the postseason is simply just betting on either the Colts to exceed their win total because I think they do or betting the Colts to make the playoffs. Okay.

Or we could do both. That could be fun. Or both. Why not? If you believe you believe Warren Sharp. And I'm going to make us go back to, Tennessee because one of the most fascinating matchups, I'm not saying right now, but for when we get

to the week one slate, I think Tennessee going into Denver is so fascinating. And I'm sad about Von Miller and I'm sad about Cortland Sutton. I wish that both teams were arriving with their full compliment. And, you know, I just think that when we're talking about home field advantage and we will be talking about it because a lot of the plays that I have in mind are like, you know,

normally under normal circumstances, you know, you can price the home field advantage. But like all that stuff might be out of the window. Denver's home field advantage because of altitude. And what does that mean for them? I mean, I'm, you know, are they, uh, do they have a distinct advantage over teams that are that are coming to them? But we will save that for the week one slate discussion. We need to talk. We need to talk. Nowhouse about some win totals. We've talked about the divisions. We talked about a team you like to win the conference. Let's hit some win totals. What is one of your favorite win total bets this season? I want to go back to the NFC North, Brother Sharp, because I just can't quit that division. It's very

intriguing to me. It is. The Detroit Lions are sitting at seven wins and people are absolutely banging the over. The over, the juice on the over is minus 160 right now. That is expensive. When you look at the board, but you know what? I want to bang the over for the Detroit Lions. Tell me what you think. Am I dumb? Is that a dumb play? It is not dumb. I like it as well. And the primary reason is the health of Matthew Stafford and the offensive coordinator. This was a team, believe it or not, that when Matthew Stafford was healthy last season, which was Darrell Bevel's first year as the offense coordinator. They averaged the deepest depth of target down the football field on first downs.

This was an offense that was very vertical, attacking opposing teams deep. They were very efficient. They held leads in games. They did a lot of things really well. And, of course, the wheels fall off when Matthew Stafford gets injured. They lose a lot of games by one score. It's really unsustainable to have a couple of backup courses. quarterbacks like they did come in and try to play out the season and expect that you're going

to be anything other than a shit show. But that's exactly what we saw. And I think that there's just so much hope with Matthew Stafford how well he was playing last year. He was actually playing at an MVP level. Like halfway through the season, he was leading the league in a lot of different passing categories last season. So if he comes back and he's able to play healthy, they have a lot of the same roster that they had last season. They're trying to build some things up defensively. I don't love their coach, Matt Patricia. But I do think that this is a team that in a division where we don't really like the Packers and we don't really like the Vikings, this is a team that could probably get some wins in there

and exceed that win total, which is pretty low. Yeah, I'm hoping so. I'm counting on Matthew Stafford and Kenny Gulladay because I put Ghaladay into at least one of my fantasy teams, possibly both. I just love that deep threat. And Stafford is so good going deep. I promise to try and keep this next team I'm going to mention to a minimum over the course of this year. I mean, I promise to try.

That's what I'm saying. The Washington almost professional football team right here in the DMV, their win total is five. And if you're willing to pay minus 125, if you're willing to pay 125 to win 100 for six wins, I think there are a lot of factors with this Washington team that suggest they're capable of surprising some people. They are so good on the defensive side of the ball in terms of the personnel. In years past, utilizing that personnel

has been a gigantic question mark and they have also suffered what feels like an unusual number of injuries on the, defensive side of the ball. But they are in the upper echelon in terms of of past pressure. And I think Mr. Chase Young is going to make a nice contribution to that facet of it. And I just think in view of all of the nonsense and noise and silliness around the organization. And I mean, I don't, I mean, I'm sure we have the E for explicit legend. on this podcast, the shithead owner and the circus act that he has wrought upon this,

this once-storied franchise, I feel like with Ron Rivera, he has something. He has instilled in me a kind of confidence. Perhaps it's a ridiculous kind of confidence. But he makes me believe that he can take his 53, get them in a locker room, tell those guys, look, all this stuff is going wrong. outside of you. By the way, I don't mean to be sounding like I'm diminishing or demeaning the stories that have come out. They're deplorable. And, you know, if Snyder's fingerprints are on any of it, that's deplorable as well. But from the perspective of like the performance of

the football team on the football field and, and are they capable of more than five wins, I think so just based on the defense. But I think you also have some. you know, cautious optimism for the offense, right? Well, I do, but before I get into that cautious optimism, I need to get to know you a little bit better house. Okay. How did you grow up in the DMV? I sure did.

I was here in 1983 out. It was in eighth grade and I made handmade signs to get people to honk. And I was standing up at the end of my block waving at the traffic going by with some buddies. We were doing the dance, the Smurf's dance, brother. it's through and through. My blood is burgundy and gold. Okay. I do remember my parents buying us our first bigger-sized TV for that Denver Broncos Super Bowl.

So I do remember that. I was here at the time, too. Let me ask you this. Were you one of the guys in high school or when you were hanging out with your buddies in college or when you moved back here? Were you one of the guys who was betting on the home team? You always wanted to have something going on, some type of action on. the Washington football team.

No, no. I had to keep the fandom and my wallet separate. I don't know who taught me that. I don't know where that instinct came from because I am not, you know, a homer. Yeah. Well, I'm a homer in terms of, you know, I'll bet a cheeseburger with anybody. But I would not like, it felt like to putting the thumb on it just a bit too much.

I can't have doubled the disappointment. I can't have my home team lose and lose gambling. That's just dumb. And I'm not going to bet against them. That's bad karma. So I wouldn't touch those bets. Okay. So you're smart.

And that's another tally mark in your column for being smart about something here. I would agree with you on the offensive side of the football. And it gets back to what we talked about at the top. You can bet on coaching. And in this case, I think the way that they handled with Jay Gruden, their first round draft pick of a quarterback last season was an abomination. You need to be able to take care and coddle a first round quarterback. Insert him when it's the best time to insert him.

Let his rookie experience be a positive one that he can lean on. Later on, we're going to be talking about the Denver Broncos. We saw when they inserted Drew Locke, right? It was late in the season against some weak opponents that he could pass the football on. the way that Washington was managing their depth charts and who was active for various different games, lo and behold, you have a guy who gets inserted in terms of their Dwayne Haskins, their rookie quarterback. He gets inserted into two separate games, two separate weeks with opposing teams in between

those games, so it's not like back-to-back games, where he has zero first-te-team reps. He's not projected to be the starter. They're not scripting or game planning. anything for him because he's the backup. He's not even supposed to be playing in this game. And then the starter either gets hurt in one situation or Jay Gruden just gets so pissed off at him. He wants to yank him from the Giants game and just insert Haskins, throw him to the wolves, without any preparation that this was going to be the game I'm playing you. Stupid. This offseason, it sort of reminds me of Lamar Jackson to an extent and you can't

compare what our final results are going to be. But Lamar Jackson, Jackson spent that 2018 season as a backup to Joe Flacko all throughout camp. He was not getting the first team reps. It's funny to say now, but they were trying to win games to keep John Harba's job heading into that season. It was unknown whether or not they were going to be successful enough. And he wasn't getting starts. He wasn't getting reps. He wasn't doing anything. He looked okay to end to end the season and people like, I don't know about him. But I was betting on him entering 2019 because he had the entire camp where this was his team and he was going to be quarterback one. There's no quarterback battle. There's no quarterback competition. And that's the

same thing we get with Haskins this year. Obviously an abbreviated offseason, abbreviated camp, but the fact that he's taken all those reps that he's got, most importantly, let's talk about this coaching, Scott Turner, who in my opinion knows when to throw the football, knows how to get guys open, knows what types of players to throw the football to. going to use a lot of play action, it's going to use a lot of pre-snap motion. He does intelligent things, passes on early downs, far more than a lot of other coaches will do so. These are all things that are going to help Dwayne Haskins this season that he did not have last year. He did not have when he finally was named starter with a lame duck interim head coach, you know, basically

controlling the show over there. So will Washington exceed their win total? I think it's possible. Is Washington a good bet week one? We'll talk about that. But I, think that good things are in store for this team. And I do think what I will say for certain, in my opinion right now, I can be wrong. But what I will say for certain that I'm convicted of is that weeks one and weeks two, maybe into weeks three, we will see a different Haskins out on the football field. And people will be like, whoa, this isn't the guy that I remember from last year. I feel like, I don't know what I did to deserve you, Warren Sharp. I mean, why are you singing these sweet lullabies to me? I know it's just, it's a late on a Thursday night.

into Friday, am I going to place a wager right now on that over? I think I might have to take a break from the pod to get on that over that five right now. The other part of it for sure, and I will stop talking about Washington is Antonio Gibson. I've been hearing incredible things about his athleticism. He had that reputation. You mentioned Scott Turner. I heard, I've seen some of the story. Scott Turner is a very big.

Tonyo Gibson believer. So I don't know. That's, well, enough for a team that's most likely going to be dueling with the Giants to finish last in the NFCEs. But, you know, look, we're looking for value. This is the whole point, right? The value can come from all corners of the NFL slate. I will tell you there is an interesting bet if you want to make it later tonight is

Washington to finish in third place in that division for like plus 192 is some of the odds that are floating out there. So you're basically forecasting that you've got two very good teams in that division, the Cowboys and the Eagles, that both of those teams are considerably superior to Washington and the Giants and that Washington is going to beat out the Giants for that third place spot and you get plus 192 on it. What you just described to me is, and I'm getting smart during the course of this podcast, Scott Turner against Jason Garrett.

And I know which of those two I prefer. I know which of those two I prefer. So that's a little bit of minus odds to get over five wins and a little bit of plus odds for the almost professional football team here in Washington to finish in third place. We are getting things done, Warren Sharp. Football friends, today's episode of the Rigger Friday NFL show. Also brought to you by Heineken Beer. Heineken would like to remind you that it's.

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Get yourself Roman. Get Roman.com slash ringer NFL. Eligibility requirements and additional terms apply. Speaking of getting things done, we have a full slate of NFL football staring us in the face like a gigantic, delicious menu from, I don't know where. Maybe the cheesecake factory. I don't know. It's a big menu. That's the point that I'm trying to make. I don't want to suggest, I can't choose between restaurants right now.

And I'm not choosing any chain restaurants at the moment with all of the hard times at the many beloved restaurants. near and dear to my heart are going through. But I want to talk about the beautiful menu of games that are in front of us. The NFL in its infinite judgment and wisdom really has concocted a delightful week one schedule. I would agree with almost everything you said, except for the fools at the NFL scheduling department, gave us 9.1 p.m. kicks and only three in the late slate at 4 p.m. obviously there's two that are at 425. We're talking Eastern time here, guys. But it is one thing that just irks me to no end that we cannot have balance in the slates to some extent. I also like the

notion of throwing a few games at the 4 o'clock time frame. When the early games are terrible and you want to start watching one of the 4 p.m. games before the 4.30 games come on. That's a beautiful thing too. And they just don't know how to balance it. I know there's TV rights and guys want to pay more and all this type of stuff, and we're trying to appease them. But I'm trying to throw up the DirecTV 8 box on my projector and have a couple multiple side TVs. And it's harder to do that when there's that ninth game

that I have to stick on one of the other TVs. I just hate it. But other than that, absolutely looking forward to the visual stimuli overload that we're going to experience. Because there is, usually we have preseason. And usually, you know, they spread out the preseason games. Some are Thursday,

some Friday, some Saturday, even a couple Sunday, spread them out a little bit. But the visual stimulation overload that we're going to go from zero games to all of a sudden, boom, keep track of nine games at the same exact time. That is going to be something. Everybody start doing those mental reps to prepare yourself for that because it's coming at 1 p.m. on Sunday. With that wallet stimulation and all those

games occurring at one o'clock and then just a handful of games after that, do you have a strategy in terms of when you look at a slate for, you know, how you might spread a portfolio? Do you bet, you know, I'm going to get three or four plays in on early games and then depending on how those go, then I'll have, you know, contingency plan B here on the afternoon games and the Sunday night and Monday night games? No, absolutely not. So this is a great, this is, this is a great, I feel like you're speaking from experience their house. I mean, you know, flexibility. Yes, I know.

And a lot of betterers are out there, out there just the same exact way. And so I think over the course of the season, we're going to be talking a lot about value and how you do things and what smart that professionals do. The key is when you're looking at the games, other than trying to find out like an angle, like, oh, well, this is a West Coast team and they're playing at 1 p.m. Or using that from a time perspective, the main thing that you want to do is ignore those types of things, like how many games. of my betting or and you're just looking at value and if you come up with two games then you're betting those two games if you come up with seven games then you're betting those seven games the NFL there's only 17 weeks in the season 16 games for each of these teams when there's value you bet them when there's no value you've got to hold back and so I don't look at any of that

but for example I will be looking at certain elements of it like I mean you got to look at it when Kirk Cousins is playing in prime time right there are certain guys or certain teams based upon times that you have to pay attention to. But no, just in general, I'm not looking at trying to balance my portfolio across different slates or coming in with like a preconceived like, well, if I win four of these early games and I'm going to roll stuff into the Sunday night game. And if I don't win four, then I'm going to wait till Monday night or something like, no, I'm not doing that at all.

Yeah. And if you don't see value in the afternoon games or the evening games, then you just leave it all alone and your plays are going to be your plays from the early afternoon games. And if you lose them, that's it. You've, you know, allocated whatever you're going to allocate from the bankroll and that money's gone. And those are losers. You don't, you don't start chasing. Is that what you're telling me? That's what I'm telling you. But I do feel like week one, people have not seen a full slate of game since last December. Because remember, in the playoffs, it's just one game at a time. People have not been betting on quite as many sports, I don't think. And we are now going to be overwhelmed

with all of these games. And I absolutely feel like people are going to be chasing on Sunday night football. They're going to be placing a lot of bets after the 1 p.m. games are concluded on Sunday night or after those 425 games are concluded on Sunday night. We're going to have a ton of liability from the books on Sunday night football. Well, I want to talk about Sunday night football then because that's the marquee game of the week. Although, you know, that to me is, I'm actually going to call it 1B because 1A, the marquee game of the week to me is the Saints and the Tampa Bay thing just because of all the curiosities of it.

So many unknowns, infinite unknowns in that game. I mean, with the return of Gronk, that all by itself is a gigantic storyline. But as a 1B game occupying that solo time slot Sunday night, new stadium out there in L.A., this Dallas race car that we think. you know, is because somebody could do Mike McCarthy is going to step on the gas pedal and it's going to be very responsive. All of America's

eyes on that game. I have one play in particular that I know you like because I subscribe to your stuff. I saw it when you put it up and the number isn't where it used to be. I love the over in that game and I loved it

when I bought it, maybe two weeks ago now at 50. It is not at 50 any longer Warren Sharp, is it? It absolutely is not. This line got as high as 52. It's now some 52 and other spots of 51 and a half. And the reason, Mr. House, that I got down on this game as early as I did is because

I knew that the public is going to come back in on game day and continue to bet this over. And normally, Sunday night games do get bet towards the over by the public. But normally on a given week, you do not have. three weeks to be able to bet this game. They post the lines for the games Sunday night. So you have a maximum one week before the next Sunday night game to get your bed. And here we had multiple weeks to do so. So I absolutely bet it over at 50. Part of me actually, and this is like another strategy, went a little harder on this game, bet it a little bit stronger, in part because I knew

we were going to part of what I do is move the marketplace. So when I'm betting a game, we're moving the lines, especially on totals. But when I'm betting this game, I know the market's going to move. Then in addition to that, I know the public's going to come in on the same side. If it turned out that I was totally wrong with offenses being ahead of defenses and defensive tackling, getting worse and all this other stuff, if I was wrong and the offenses look like crap in the 1 PM games, I could get off of this game at a higher number and have a little. little bit of a middle. Now, I probably wouldn't get off the full game. Probably would have gotten off half my position or a quarter of my position, but I could have done that. So the line is now

up at 51 and a half. A couple things that I like about this game really quickly. The first one is, you mentioned before, all the continuity that Dallas Cowboys have offensively. They have addition by subtraction by getting rid of Jason Witt, and that's one of the few things that is different. I don't like some of the offensive line injuries that have cropped up over the last couple of weeks for them since I made this wager, but I still think that they're going to be okay to get us where we need to in this game. The big thing that I like about this game is that I think the Cowboys are going to be the aggressors. I think both of these defenses, they've undergone most of the 50 percent, I think, of both the starting defense is almost 50 percent of those starters are not longer playing for those teams. this season. So they got inserted pieces defensively, lack of continuity, lack of cohesion, difficult offseason to do something like that. In addition, the guy who's taking over for Wade Phillips

as the defensive coordinator for the L.A. Rams has never been a defensive coordinator. He's never called plays before. He's a linebacker's coach who's only been in the NFL as a head as a linebacker's coach for three years. Now he's got to step into Wade Phillips shoes and call defense against Dallas the Dallas Cowboys who now have C.D. Lamb, who have Blake Jarwin and no longer have Jason Witten. But the number one thing that I find interesting about this game that not enough people are discussing is a simple fact that Jason Garrett, during Dack's tenure there from 2016 onward, was the number four most run heavy coach in the game's first three quarters on early downs. He was very conservative. He loved to clap, as you indicated, but he also loved to call

run plays. He didn't want to trust his quarterback. He didn't want to let Dak Cook so to speak, now in walks Mike McCarthy. Now, Mike McCarthy's not calling the plays. He's still letting Kelly Moore call the plays, but they've crafted this offense all offseason together. They've worked together on what their philosophy is going to be. And in Green Bay, Mike McCarthy with Aaron Rogers, same time frame, 2016 until Mike McCarthy was fired there in 2018. This was the number one most pass heavy team in the NFL. So you're going from a coach who is the number four most run heavy to a guy who is the number one most pass heavy for a sustained period of time multiple years in a row. That to me indicates that we're going to see a more

aggressive, a less conservative offensive attack from the Dallas Cowboys in this game. I don't know that the odds makers have fully built that into the number and we've got a fast track here. This game's being played on new stadium with what's been reported as a very fast surface. Lots of these games that they've played recently the last three years have gone over the total. and I don't usually buy into a lot of trends, but this one trend sort of makes sense, House. I'll leave you with this. When Sean McVeigh has been on a team, has been coaching a team where he's the underdog

that's happened 11 times, the games went over the total in nine of the 11 games. It's 82% of the time. So they tend to play a little bit more aggressively when they're projected to lose a game. They try to be a little bit more up-tempo. and these two teams were two of the three most uptempo teams outside of the fourth quarter that we had in the NFL last year. So I think we've seen on Hard Knocks. I don't know if you've seen it. A lot of tempo coming out of the L.A. Rams, I think we're going to see that in this game as well. Yeah, and that's that McVeigh ingenuity that for whatever reason felt like it went dormant for a little bit,

the sort of latter half of last season. Do you see any value? One of the things that I've been grappling with in looking for, you know, games to pick this week and games to wager on. And I'm in a whole bunch of things, right? I pick every single game against the slate. That's one thing I do. I've heard you're pretty good at that too. Just for a league. I'm decent.

You know, I'm, I'm in that well over 50%, maybe getting up to the 55% over the course of the years. Which is very hard to do. Just so everybody at home is listening. That's, it is very challenging to go 256 games a year. year and to eclipse the 52.4% break-even point betting minus 110 juice. That's what a break-even point, you have to hit at least 52% of your bets to break even at minus 110 juice, the Vig that the odds maker is charging you. And professionals are looking to hit 54 to 56%. And when they're

betting enough games and they're betting a high amount of money on these games, it's going to turn a nice ROI when they do that. So if you hear guys that say, well, I want to bet 75%. I want to win 75% the professionals do that. No, the professionals would love to. They're not going to complain if they do. So Joe House, you are doing really good if you're hitting that at such a sustained period of time. Yeah. And I'll just say, look, I'm not betting every single game on the slate year in and year out. It's just a league where we, you know, we pick against the spread. It's just a picks league. But when I'm trying to come up with games of value, one of the things that I love to do early in the season is play on home dogs, especially, you know, same conference home dogs and

really same division home dogs. I don't know what to do about home dogs in this context now. The Rams are a home underdog. I think Dallas was favored by three the last time I looked. How do you make sense out of whether or not there's value in this? in this unprecedented context that we're operating in right now. Okay, so I will tell you a number. You can use it for other games if you want to. Here's just a general trend. Then we'll talk a little bit more specifically about this one.

But in division, week one underdogs, the last 10 years, have gone 38 and 16 against the spread. That's a 70% clip. Now, this game isn't in division. So I said it doesn't necessarily apply to this one. It's not a divisional opponent. but they have played each other each of the last three seasons. Home field advantage has been waning over the last several seasons. There's a lot of reasons why we may get into it a little bit later as to the specifics,

but part of it has to do with it's much easier for these teams to travel. Part of it has to do with it's easier for them to use technology and iPads to study up and do some of that work, whereas in the past they kind of left all their electronics at home minus a little cell phone that didn't have a computer and Wi-Fi and all this stuff. And so they couldn't do as many things on the flight and in the air and at their hotel rooms and that sort of thing. Also, you got nutrition is better. And there's so many other elements besides just like the actual venues themselves. But it is interesting because with home field advantage being a little bit less this season, considerably less for some teams like the Minnesota Vikings who have the number one best home field advantage in the league since they built their new stadium, which specifically was designed by an.

architect to refract the crowd noise back off the stadium roof back down onto the football field. They have the best cover rate in the NFL since they built that stadium. It's going to hurt certain teams worse than others. You have seen a lot of these road teams take some money because I do believe that the odds makers still right now as of week one are putting a little bit too much home field advantage, baking a little bit too much into the line. So in general, that's what I think. but what is your angle on this specific game? Are you looking at the Rams catching those three points? I do.

That's what I want to do, but I just think I'm going to probably lay off because I just don't have a good enough feel for it. I think that the way the public is going to come in on this game is going to be on the Cowboys and is going to be on the over. And being already on the over, that provides some good edge for us. but I don't disagree that you may find some good value taking the Rams at plus three here

with everybody being down on Sean McVeigh, everybody being down on Jared Goff, Dax got a new coach, Dax is in the contract year, all the things that you said that you liked about them, this provides a little bit of good value for us to fade them week one. I'm not saying I'm doing it. I have not bet this game yet, but I do feel like I'm getting like the tingle that the sharp groups may come in later and take the LA Rams plus three to be determined if they do. Well, I want to go on the other side of that trend line that you just described at another game that features division rivals. And it's perhaps one of my favorite games, if not my number one

favorite game of the entire weekend. That's Buffalo laying six and a half at home against the New York Jets. now that that doesn't fit the home dog thing but it is division rivals I feel like there's enormous value on the bills giving less than a touchdown to the Jets every story relating to the Jets suggests disarray you know they they lost Jamal Adams

the defensive side of the ball seems you know confused Buffalo on the other hand looks loaded for bear They bring in Stefan Diggs. Their defense is already exemplary. They've established the identity for that team.

And, you know, another year of Josh Allen with Coach McDermott. And I just, you know, I think that bills can come out. They might win by 21 or 28 points in this game. Yeah, this game is tough. I don't really have a strong opinion on it. I will say that from a coaching perspective, you will not get a bigger divergence of abilities, in my opinion. I just hate the way that Adam Gase just throws out as 11 personnel.

I don't feel like he maximizes things to his team. It's a team that has some beat-up wide receivers. They are struggling from a health perspective right now. Their defense does have question marks. They've got probably the most egotistical coach in the entire NFL calling their defense in Greg Williams. But I just, I just don't know if I want to lay the bills,

seeing that line sitting right there underneath of the touchdown. I know that's going to be one of the bigger plays that the public is going to make. Yeah, my hands raised. I'm the public. And it looks good, obviously, everything that you just said, I think Sean McDermann is an incredible coach. I really have a lot of faith in their offense coordinator as well, Brian Daibald, and the things that he's going to do to maximize Josh Allen.

I love the Moss pick that they took in the draft of trying to spell Singletary from a running back position. I just think that they've got a really good roster from top to bottom on both sides of the football. So I would not be betting against the Buffalo Bills week one against the Jets. But I don't know that I'm running to the window to lay those points. But I absolutely hope that they thrashed the New York Jets. I know Joe Douglas, the GM of the Jets, a very proud guy. I think he's got a great plan, like long term in mind to where he can get the Jets. But I think it's just going to be tough right now with the way that the coaching staff is.

And it's going to take a little bit of time to really craft this team in the image Joe Douglas wants to get them to. Okay. Well, you didn't say anything that's dissuading me from going out and jumping on the bill. So I'm going to do it. I'm going to, I, we established at the top of this that I am a square. and that's a square play and I'm going to try and make it make it work. I have one last kind of thing for the slate this week that I'm interested in your take on. I like to do early in the season parleyes.

I like to look for a money line opportunity and use that as an anchor and then add some other pieces to it to get really nice, juicy odds that can help build a bankroll. this is dumb i am my hand everybody listening don't do this don't play parley's don't try and build an anchor parley off a money line and then put other spicy shit around it that it's it's really stupid but it's it's for fun the whole point of this is the entertainment value so my anchor parley play is indianapolis at the money line now is up to like minus 400 minus 410 minus 420 something ridiculous But we want to take something that, you know, feels, we know, nothing in the NFL is a lock, but I feel pretty comfortable. If my thesis is that the Colts are poised to perhaps win their division, perhaps win 10 games, all that, they have to win this game.

They cannot come out of this game. Oh, and one. So if I believe that, then I feel pretty comfortable going ahead and making them the anchor of my parlay. Then around that parlay, I'd like to sprinkle slightly riskier things to try and up the odds a little bit to get the kind of return on investment that I'm looking for. One of the things I'm looking at is the over in the Tampa Bay, New Orleans Saints game, which right now sits at like 47 or 47 and a half. That's sort of one element of it. then I'll probably go ahead and sprinkle the bills laying the six and a half against the jets. And that's a three-way parlay that's going to get me plus odds, you know, taking a negative

odds situation of just straight up. I'm not going to lay $400 for stupid Indianapolis to beat the jets and get $100 back out of it. That's not any fun. Let's try and juice it up a little bit. So I know that I just put a whole bunch of pieces together that are silly. I know it's dumb. I said it at the outset. But let's sort of talk it through a little bit.

Yeah, let's talk it through. So the first piece of this thing is the Indianapolis Colts. And I will just tell you as concisely as I possibly can about my love affair for Frank Reich. I think he is one of the most underrated play callers in the NFL. Let's walk through 2017 wins a Super Bowl with the Philadelphia Eagles. goes out to Indianapolis. His starting quarterback, Andrew Luck, cannot even throw a football. He cannot even throw a tennis ball.

He's working on just moving his arm around. Then he finally works up to a tennis ball. Then he finally works up to a college football. Then he finally works up to an NFL football right before the start of the season. Frank has to completely change the way he's going to call plays for Andrew based upon how he feels on a week-to-week basis and is rehabbing his injury. They go out and win 10 games that year. Then Andrew, three weeks before the start of the 2019 season, decides he wants to

to retire. Jacoby Brissette's now going to be the guy. This is a team halfway through last year was the number two seed in the entirety of the AFC through week eight of the season. It was not the Kansas City Chiefs. It was not the Baltimore Ravens. With the New England Patriots sitting at 8-0, this team was number two, the Indianapolis Colts led by a backup quarterback in Jacoby Brissette. They dealt with tons of injuries down the rest of the way in their schedule. Out of their last nine games that they played, they led entering half to, entering half, uh, entering half, We're entering the fourth quarter in seven of those nine games. They should win most of those games.

Teams that are up at halftime win 80% of the games. They only won two out of those final nine games. They only won seven games on the season last year. This was a team that should have won more. I absolutely love Frank Reich. I love the skills. I love the depth. I love the wide receivers.

I love everything they're doing. I'm not as concerned week one as I would be with other teams incorporating a new quarterback because Frank Reich worked. with Philip Rivers out in San Diego when the team was the Chargers. They have familiarity there. He was their offensive coordinator. So I like that element of it. Strong offensive line.

Although I will warn you about one thing, House. Okay. I'm listening. And this is the thing that really frustrates me is that we are seeing Adam Schaefter, even as of this late hour on Thursday, tweeting out guys getting injured at practice. today. And multiple guys on the Colts offensive line are injured right now. So we have to pay close attention as to these guys availability. One guy had a back injury act up the other day. Two other guys were limited in practice. This is the staple of this team is protecting Philip Rivers in

an offensive line. So let's pay close attention to that. But if those guys are up and if they are healthy, I do like the Indianapolis Colts to win this game in Jacksonville. and actually you don't have to lay even minus 400. It's down to like minus 390 right now. Okay. That's a fair price. Okay. So now hit me with the second leg.

Let's talk through that one. It's the Saints and the Bucks over, I think it's 47 and a half last time I looked at this Thursday night into Friday. I can't come up with a scenario where this game, you know, is not a, shootout. Am I, is it crazy? Typically, it's not crazy. I will say this. If you look at these two teams and we think this is going to be the most bet on game of the week, right? It very well could be. Probably the guys chasing are going to build up the other ones. But other than Sunday night or Monday night, this is going to be the biggest bet handle game of the week. And the public likes to bet overs. But this thing was sitting at 49 and a half even a couple of days ago and it's dropped

down to 47 and a half 48. I could tell you that there has been some sharp money that has bet this game towards the under. That being said, I'll just give you some data on the Saints. There are 1 and 8 against the spread. Their past nine season openers, failing to cover six consecutive games. And those games have gone over the total eight out of nine times. It was an average combined score of almost 64 points. The way that they tend to struggle is on the the defensive side of the football, not the offensive side of the football. Now, you're again, dealing with injuries. I hate these soft tissue injuries that guys are getting with, uh, that are guys are getting at practices this week. But Mike Evans was just nicked up and he is not played for a couple of

days in practice. So we got to study what he is going to do. Does the lack of Mike Evans potentially change what you think about this total? No, it does not. I actually, I think he's going to play. The reports that I've seen give me, you know, reasonable confidence that he's going to make it up. And I, I honestly, when I look at this, it would have to be one of the two quarterbacks getting injured as opposed to just one of the pieces because for like Tampa, I think that they have a comprehensive skill set. Now, I don't, not try to diminish the value of Mike Evans to whatever game plan that they have. I just think they have a lot of weapons. So like, The loss of Evans doesn't profoundly change my feeling on that over.

So in a game like this, there's really very little logic that you could throw out there that's going to, oh, well, no, these two teams, like great offices, great quarterbacks, like that's not a good idea, right? But I will say from the information that I have, I have a math model, but I don't start using my math model at the beginning of the season because I don't want to throw in their data from 2019. I never used the prior year's data. I know some guys like to do that. I do not. So in the future, I'll be able to tell you, yeah, there's value here. Yeah, there or no, there's not. But I can't do that on this game. All I could say is I obviously don't like this one

as much as the leg on the Indianapolis Colts. You're obviously not laying nearly as much here. but I'm not going to say that I think that this is a a terrible play. But you're looking at a new quarterback going to a new team. You're looking at Drew Breeze and how conservative may that offense be. I will tell you, I love Emmanuel Sanders. I love Manny Sanders on this team. I think he's going to be a big asset for them.

And I can't fight you too much. If you like it, I'm okay with it. Okay. Well, we already covered the bills and the Jets. So this is obviously a buyer beware. Recall this the buyer beware. Parlay, it's a week one dumbass parlay. You can give it whatever name you want.

It's a square parlay. The odds are playing out. I'm getting better than three to one. I just want to enjoy the games and have a little bit on, you know, a couple of these, these things that are going to be season long, you know,

uh, games of interest to me. The bills are a season long team of interest to me. The, the culture is a season long. long team of interest to me and the saints potential Super Bowl bound. And so let's just go ahead and sprinkle a little bit for fun in the first week. That's that that's that's that's what I think I'm going to do. So you're going to roll with that at terms of your parlay of the week. Are there any

games that we've discussed that you feel convicted about a little bit more that you will put on your card? I know we talked about the Rams. We obviously talked the over in that game and the Rams and the Cowboys game. You talked about those three teams that you listed that you're going to parlay together. Is there anybody else on the card that you're looking at or do you have any concerns over that we need to talk through? There's one one that we kind of touched on a little bit earlier and that is Minnesota at home against the Green Bay Packers. The Packers at this now this game opened I think at three or maybe even three and a half and folks have betted all the down to two and a half. But I still like Green Bay in this place. And maybe the thing to do

is to just bet the Green Bay money line here rather than laying the juice because, you know, at this point, we're under the three number or, or would it be better to buy the half point and get Green Bay back up to the crucial three number? Okay. So we're going to talk through a lot of betting concepts on this show this season. And one of them is the value that exists in teasing through some of the key numbers. So there's only a couple of key numbers that you would ever want to buy onto. And I'm never buying off of numbers because I don't want to give the odds maker extra money that I need to just to kind of ensure that I'm going to actually win a bet rather than just push the bet. So in a case where you have two and a half,

most often I'm always going to be looking to buy to the three. I would never buy off of the three to a three and a half just to do it so that I'll win if it lands on three. But I would want to get to the three. In this case, though, we're at this key number and you can use a teaser and move your line six, six and a half or seven points in your favor. And when you are due using that teaser to go through both of those key numbers that I mentioned, the three and the seven, which even a six-point teaser will do in this case. And you take the Green Bay Packers from two and a half points up to eight and a half points on a six-point teaser. There's a lot of value in that teaser leg. You also talked to, so that's conceptually where there's value. You also discussed earlier, though,

the problem is you have to pair a teaser leg with something else. You can't just like bet one teaser. So you have to pair it with something else and you talked about how much you like the Indianapolis Colts. And the Indianapolis Colts are sitting at seven and a half or eight right now. And you can tease them the exact opposite direction. You could tease them down through the seven and through the three on a six point teaser. So there's just a lot of value in that type of maneuver. And it does set up nice considering you already like the Indianapolis Colts to do that. just on this game in particular, I do think that the home field advantage is one of the most massive things. And we already talked a lot of other things about why we don't like the Minnesota Vikings quite as much and went under on a lot of their season long stuff.

I liked them at three and a half. I have a little piece of the Green Bay Packers at three and a half. But that line's obviously not available anymore. And I think the teaser makes the most sense for you. That is so good. And you have no idea that I'm doing this. But my laptop is open. And I have, a way of, you know, placing this wager. I have the Packers at plus eight and a half. I have the Colts at minus two. And we are going to play on. Now, tell me not to go crazy.

And this will be the last one of the day. With that kind of structure, why wouldn't I also add in one that I was kind of pondering and I like but wasn't sure what to do with? Why don't I add in the Rams at plus nine? that's a three-way teaser that is really dumb. But, you know, I was on the Colts. The Packers all the way up to eight and a half.

We like in the Rams at nine, now we're talking, I feel like, I don't know, just get this up here and we put the odds. I could put those here. And we got 100 and 100 to win 160. That's, that's probably not enough return to make it worth. while. Let me tell you, that's that's the proper return on a three-team six-point teaser, anywhere from, you know, it depends on the book, but plus 160, you got to get at least plus

160. Some spots might be a little bit higher than that up to plus 180. But that is not something that's ill-advised. That's also something that a lot of groups that I work with sometimes do. They'll do typically some round-robin teasers. So they find three games. that they like, they'll tee going through the key numbers, they'll tease each one of those like two to two, you know, these two, those two, the other combination. And then they'll throw them all into one teaser, all three of them together. And moving through those key numbers is definitely something that exists. Now, you're not moving through the three here. You're moving from three to nine so you don't get the value of going through the three. But the other thing to note, and this is going

way deep, but let's just throw it out there real quick since we're on the subject. Teasers are less valuable when the total is higher. So in the Cowboys game with a total of 51 and a half, teasing that game doesn't have as much value as compared to teasing the game like the Vikings where the total is only at 45. And the reason is because fewer points are expected to be scored here. So moving through those key numbers are more valuable when the overall game total is lower. It doesn't necessarily mean that you wouldn't have a hard and fast rule if it totals over 51. I'm never going to tease it. Okay.

But I'm just giving and just throwing that out there for your data bank for the future. Yeah. Well, we have 16 more future concoctions to to cook up here. This feels like a very comprehensive approach to week one to me. I did just go ahead and place that bet anyway because again, you know, we're, we're in week one. This is the week where anything is possible. And, you know, we're just going to try and enjoy the games. I have action early, middle and late now across the schedule.

And, you know, I could do this for another hour, but I don't know if anybody has the stamina to keep, you know, that we talked about the defense having the stamina. We need podcast stamina for all the listeners out there, Mr. Sharp. Well, here's the bad news for you, House. Here's the bad news is that in the future, we're going to actually be able to share real data from the last week's games and from the season to date. We don't have the ability to do that. The good news is we're not going to be talking about futures bets anymore. But the bad news is that now I'm going to have a lot more data to share with people and try to make everybody more intelligent and more sophisticated. sports betters. One of my goals, the thing I'm so jacked up to be on the show with you is because

you're a great dude and you love betting sports and it's going to be a lot of fun. But number two is the ability to share insights with this audience, this great audience that you guys have established over here, to teach some people, to give them some interesting nuggets from an analytics perspective, to understand the game better, the coaching better, a lot of technical elements of the sport so that you can watch and become more intelligent as a viewer, but then also teach you a little bit about sports betting and value and hopefully we win a few bucks along the way. So I think it couldn't have gone any better. And I just cannot wait to keep doing these with you every single Friday throughout the course of the season all

the way up until the Super Bowl, buddy. It's amazing. And we have these Thursday night games that are always going to be the kickoff for us in these conversations. And I can't wait. It's going to be a hell of a season. It's going to be a hell of a return on investment for all. of our betting brethren here on the Ringer NFL podcast. Thank you, WS. You got it, buddy.