The Ringer NFL Show - Predicting AFC Teams Win Totals

Episode Date: June 28, 2021

Kevin and Nora are joined by The Ringer’s Danny Kelly and NESN’s Doug Kyed to pick the over/under on each AFC team's projected win total. Hosts: Kevin Clark and Nora Princiotti Guest: Danny Kelly and Doug Kyed Production Assistant: Isaiah Blakely Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Full Court Fits is the Ringer's new weekly NBA video series hosted by Big Was, Waz, aka Wazney-Lambre. Each week, we take you around the world of NBA fashion and share can't miss style choices from your favorite players and keep you up to date on the latest news and releases in sneaker culture. Waz also talks to experts like Damian Lillard's personal stylists to give you behind-the-scenes looks at how the NBA's biggest stars choose their outfits. New episodes drop every Friday, so make sure you're subscribe to the Ringer's YouTube channel at YouTube.com slash the ringer so you never miss an episode. It is the ringer NFL show. Part of the Ringer podcast Network. I'm Kevin Clark, joined

today by Norprince. I don't know what's going on. Kevin, not that much. I'm going to let the listeners in here on a little secret, which is that we are recording this episode early. Why would you do that? Why would you pull back the curtain like that? The magic of podcasting. Because I'm about truth telling. I'm about truth telling. And also because I didn't know what else to say there, because we recorded another episode earlier today in which you started it by saying, Nora, what's up? How's it going? And I got to be honest with you, it's going almost the exact same as it was three hours ago.

We're going full jeopardy here. We're just banking episodes. The new thing, we're going to be like game show hosts. We're just going to work three days a year. And we're just going to record it. We're going to do, we're just going to record like Week 17's recap episode later today. We should try to do that. We should like time capsule it.

And just do the whole season and just guess. Now that we've done two episodes of one day, I feel like there's a path forward here. All right. We're joined by Danny Kelly. Daniel, how are you? I'm doing excellent. How are you?

And Doug Kite, who's never been on this podcast, yours for Nest and he covers the Patriot does a great job. And he is in a Taco Bell parking lot. Explain yourself. Well, I had a weeks long plan to go, this is the first day of my vacation. NFL basically goes on vacation. I go on vacation with it.

So I had a week's long plan to go to six flags with my friends. But then I was asked to come on the ringer NFL podcast. And I said, absolutely, I can work my day around this as long as I have to record the show in a Taco Bell parking lot. So I'm in. Specifically, did you find a Taco Bell to do it in? Was it like you were there other parking lots available and you're like, I don't want to. Parking lot will not do? Yeah.

Well, my friends had to go somewhere because I didn't go by myself, of course. And they had to eat and they picked Taco Bell. So that's why we picked the Taco Bell parking lot. I think they probably prefer Taco Bell to other establishments like Applebee's or Wendy's or McDonald's. So that's the specific reason. I think I'm actually in Connecticut right now, too. We've crossed state lines here. Wow.

Yeah. It's kind of an honor. Doug, we appreciate you taking time out of your day to record with us in a Taco Bo parking lot. I don't want to make it seem like I'm like, oh, yeah, I'll just like do this podcast from Taco Bell parking lot. Like this was a very specific plan. There's a reason.

Yes, exactly. Yeah. Would you have done this if I had asked instead of Nora? Was Nora making the ask the reason? I know. I even would have done it if Danny asked. No, that's still, come on. Let's not say things we can't take back.

All right. So we're going to do the, uh, also I like the idea of Nora. Just now that we're banking a second episode, I like that anything we say, we might have to just CGI stuff in if we're. if it's dated in a week. You know? Like, I'd be great if Aaron Rogers got afraid.

And we just had to just, we had to recast. What if we had to, what if we recasted Doug next week? It just had some person who was giving us all the news. And we, we call up somebody else and say, hey,

we need you to get to the nearest Taco Bell parking lot. They have to be at a theme park all day, too. They have to be kind of like jostled in the head from all the roller coaster. Wow. All right. So what we're going to do, we're going to do two episodes about

over or under for the 2021 season. The other will actually be recorded in two weeks. I think Shil Kapati is coming on. Who knows what kind of parking lots he'll be in? I think Danny Kelly's going to be on that episode too. Nora's going to be away. Or we can, again, we can CGI. Or Nora, if you want to take a note from Doug

and just find a parking lot on your vacation, you could, it'd be great for you to be on that episode. It's going to be a no for me, dog. That is going to be a note. I don't blame you up. All right. So we're doing that. AFC win totals today.

Pretty, pretty easy stuff. Interesting sort of year for this conference. The Chiefs retool after a Super Bowl that was very strange and made us maybe rethink certain parts of their roster. Then they go out and they get, I don't know, one of the best offense lines of football. And whether or not anybody can sort of catch them in the AFC hierarchy is the story of the conference.

So we'll start really easy. We'll just go division by division. And we will start with, start with the New York Jets in the ASC East. It's six. Danny Kelly. I think it's, I think so this is tough because obviously, you know, there's, there's still not going to be good. But everything we're hearing about the amount of training camp is this offense

is going to be so much more exciting and so much more fun with Zach Wilson on our center. Elijah Moore is already pretty. much a Hall of Famer in my mind at this point. And so, you know, how different is that going to make? How big of a difference is that going to make in this offense? I think the offense overall is going to be better. You get the post-gace bump. Six wins.

Hmm. I'm going to go with over. I'm going to say seven. Wow. Okay. That's interesting. Let's, let's interrog this Elijah Moore thing here because you're a fantasy guy. Yeah.

And there's been a legitimate freak out over the past week about Elijah Moore. They've got him as Randy Moss. What's going on here? A 5'10 Randy Moss. So I think that all the beat reporters, I've read several different, you know, beat reporters that have been there, have basically all agreed.

It's a consensus that he's been, like, quote, special. Like, he's been lighting it up. They don't say it lightly based on, like, the different things I've seen, it's, you know, they're not trying to just like, high standards of Jets beat writers. Yeah, I mean, they're not trying to just like pump up. you know, someone for the sake of doing that.

I think they actually, you know, have really believe he's been showing, like, absolutely, like, blowing up these camps. So, you know, I think it's, I think it's legit. I think he's, he was one of my favorite guys pre-draft in terms of, um, just talent, skill set, you know, great hands, great speed, playmaker. He, uh, last year, I saw the stat. He actually led, um, he led the country in yards per game and catches per game. And then when you look at his overall scrimmage yards per game, which includes rushing because he did carry the ball a few times.

He has more, he averaged more scrimmage yards per game than any Power 5 player in like the last 20 years. I saw that from Scott Barrett at Fantasy Points. Like so he's a he's a pretty special prospect. I think that kind of flew under the radar a little bit maybe because he's, you know, smaller. He's like 5 foot 9, 180 pounds or something like that. He's on the smaller side. But he really does kind of like the way he moves and the way he. can separate, remind me a little bit of Antonio Brown.

Sounds like he's just blowing it up at camp. So I was talking tongue-in-cheek. I don't think I'm, I'm not quite ready to say he'll be a Hall of Famer. But I am genuinely excited. Perennial All-Pro. Yeah, just an All-Pro this year and then all-decade team and then no guarantees after that. Exactly. I want to do a bigger picture discussion, but I want to get your number here, Doug.

Six. I lean a little bit over. They get the post-Adam-Gaist bump, which is, of course, important. They're much better coached this year. I do worry about the rookie quarterback, but I also just think that the AFC East is going to be pretty competitive overall. I think that everyone expected the Jets be better last year. And now maybe that happens this year with Robert Zala and a new offense and just

kind of more excitement overall. So I'm going to say over, I'll go right there with Danny, my fellow D.K., and say seven wins. I don't feel great about it. But also, I think that just the 17-game season makes this a little bit more difficult. And I think it's interesting to see where some of these over-unders are placed based on the 17-1 schedule because no one really knows how these teams are going to look record-wise when this all shakes out. But I could see them going 7 and 10 this season.

Totally. And the inefficiencies in the 17-game schedule and how that shakes out with the totals, you know, we did a podcast last week, definitely not three hours ago with Eric Eager. towards to hurry. And we were talking about, those guys were saying basically that they thought that some of the player total, especially running backs and receivers, you know, maybe those guys will have less stats and we think because they'll, they'll maybe take games off, whatever. I mean, it's going to be really fascinating to see, I guess, how the gambling market adjusts to all of this. Nora, six wins. All right. I'm going under. So here's what I think. I believe in the post-gaste bump. And as far as...

adjusting for the 17 game schedule math is very hard for me and I hate it. Um, so just want to get on record that I find all of the like the idea of a five and 12 team is very startling to me, but I do believe that's what the New York Jets could could wind up being mainly because I don't think that the improvements in coaching scheme, what they've done to make their offense potentially a little bit exciting when you think about it on paper. I don't think that you see those until they fix their offensive line. And right now, unless Elijah Vera Tucker can come in right away and having two guys with Mackay Beckton performing at a high level is enough to actually make the line as a whole coales and be good enough to give them some stability. I don't think Wilson's going to be in a

great spot. I don't think that you're really going to be able to see the rest of the improvements actually make a difference on the field until they stop having one of the worst offensive lines in football. I think that's one of the number one things that can kind of like these teams that are trying to get better in leaves and bounds, they don't tend to get off the ground until they not necessarily make the lines of scrimmage as strength, but at least get to middle of the pack. And I don't know that the Jets are there yet. Is Adam Gase the number one? Is he the number one there's going to be addition by subtraction guy in the NFL? Yeah.

Because here's the thing, we saw a test case here. We thought it was Hugh Jackson. We thought it was Hugh Jackson. And then Hugh Jackson to Freddie Kitchens' transition didn't go all that well. And then it turned out Kitchens was the bounceback guy. You know who it's not Bill O'Brien? What? Oh, okay.

David Culley's going to be worse than Bill O'Brien? I'm just saying, this is not about David Culley. I'm just saying I think it was a reasonable thing to assume that you subtract one, Bill O'Brien, and things were going to get better. Oh, yeah. Did not happen that way. I actually called that. I saw things trending so badly that I realized he was,

his fire was going to create a power vacuum. And then all of a sudden, they're going to go in 17. So. Oh, well. Okay. Um, the answer is under, but with like a gold,

like a gold tinged under. Like a little, little, little gold plate is, is carrying. Like, you ever get like a dessert? The gentleman's under.

Like you ever get a dessert and they bring like a very nice plate, you know, they're delivering the under on that plate because I think they're going to look good. I think Zach Wilson's a really good quarterback. I think Robert Sall is a good coach. The Lefleur offense, McVeigh-Shannahan offense, wherever you want to call it, can work here. They're going to win two games that they shouldn't. They're going to go five and 12, as Nora said, but they're going to beat a good team, maybe two, maybe late in the year. and we start talking seriously about this team in in 2022. I live in New York.

People ask me sometimes about the Jets. And I really do. I'm not, you know, I don't say this kind of stuff about the Giants. They really are a year away from being an interesting team and then two years away from being legitimately good team. But I love the building blocks.

I really, you know, I think the world of Joe Douglas, there's something there. All right. Buffalo bills 10 and a half, Norprinciade. Over.

I just think the number is too low. like the Ravens, I'm going to spoil this, but I'm just going to do it because it's my logic. I think the bills are better than the Ravens and the Ravens total is 11. And I sort of felt boxed into a corner to be like, okay, I think the bills will go over that. The number being too low is a dictionary definition of an over. So we got that going for you. There you go. Look, look, look.

Here's the deal. I think they have a ton of continuity, which is great. I think this, you can build in some regression. from Josh Allen and still see them winning 11 or 12 games, particularly with a 17 game schedule. Should we just start drinking, like, everybody drank, everybody, like, put a number on a tally every time somebody says,

the 17 game schedule. Yeah. Because I think that's going to come up a lot. It's in a Taco Bell parking lot. So there's a non-zero chance he's been drinking for a while now if you ever spent much time in a Taco Bell parking lot. So we wouldn't want to do that to him to continue on. Doug, Buffalo bills, 10 and a half.

I'm going over as well. I could understand this 10 and a half number if the bills had lost Brian Dable this offseason, but they didn't. So I don't think there's going to be that much regression from Josh Allen this season. I think that it's reasonable to assume that he'll be about as good,

maybe a little bit worse, just because he was so good last season, but pretty much just as good as he was last year. And I mean, I do hate to harp this so early, so maybe by the end of this podcast, we'll be sick of saying 17 game schedule, but 10 and a half wins, once again, would have made sense if this was maybe a 16 game schedule, but when we're throwing in that extra extra game, do we really think they're going to go 10 and 7? That just seems...

It's like not that impressive of a record. Right. Yeah, that's essentially them going like 9 and 7. Like even 10 and 6 isn't that impressive. So, yeah, I see this being like an 11 or 12 win team this season. And so I go significantly over on this one. Significantly. Significantly over.

Wow. Danny Kelly. Yeah, I agree. I think so I'm looking at sharp football stats right now, the strength of schedule numbers. According to the forecast and win totals, the bills have a top 10 easiest schedule going into 2021. They won 10 games in 2019 with Josh Allen playing like a wild cult or something like that. I don't know, what the, what the A wild colt?

Can we enter, can we take the off of there a little bit and interrogate that? Just a little bit wild, I would say, is like the idea. Just not, you know, he didn't come into his own until last season. And then obviously he just went completely scorched earth on everybody. I think, you know, like Nora mentioned, you can expect a little bit of efficiency regression to the mean, but I still think he's going to be a top-tier quarterback. The dayball thing is big for them.

He doesn't want to, it doesn't, sound like he wants to change much about the offense in terms of like dialing back the pass offense or you know taking less less off of Allen's plate and I think you know the sky is still the limit for what they can do I think defensively there they'll be one of the more consistent teams defensively like you know you can't necessarily predict predict how teams defenses will play it's not generally as sticky as offense but I think with this coaching stack staff McDermott is a good coach they still have a lot of talent on that side of the ball I yeah I mean I don't know it's just like I think what Doug said is right, like 10 and 7, like that doesn't sound like a very good record.

I feel like, you know, they can easily go over that. So I would say the over two pretty confidently. I'm going over to. As Nora said, the number is just too low. It's as simple as that. You know what you do when the number is too low, you take the over. It's the kind of insight you get on the ring around. That's my whole philosophy, really.

Yeah, that's what I thought about all day. I'm just going to go all in on this before our show last week, which definitely did not take place three hours ago. Before we started recording, I told Kevin and our guests, I was like, look, if I say something dumb about football on this show, I don't care. Let's keep it rolling. If I say something that reveals that the betting market flabbergasts me and hard as I try, I will probably never fully comprehend it. Like, I don't know, give a wave, flag me down somehow. I don't know why I said that. Clearly, I have. I have nothing to offer qualifiers about with such as if I thought you broke it down succinctly. When the number is too low, you take the over.

Everyone knows this. The thing I explained to Nora is that I do understand the gambling market and the kind of mechanisms of it and how to do it and how to read this stuff. And I still just get absolutely wrecked every time I bet on a sporting event. So it doesn't actually help with anything. No. And we should see my U.S. Open bets from eight days ago. and not yesterday.

All right, that's the last joke we make about the timing of this episode. A lot of bat. Yeah, I know. Over.

Over. The number's just too low. All right. New England Patriots 9, Danny Kelly. Yeah, so I would say I'm probably the least

of an expert on the Patriots of this little crew here. Nora, formerly B reporter there. Doug currently be a reporter there. I am going to say over, and the scientific reason is because 10 and 7 sounds

like a record that they would go. And I do think they generally speaking have improved quite a bit over the offseason. I don't think Belichick and company are like really down with the whole going under 500 thing that they did last year. Like that was, you know, obviously they, I think they went into the season with eyes wide open that they might not be a competitive team. But like what they did in free agency, like spending so much money, so much guaranteed cash on a lot of players, especially those two tight ends, Henry, Johnny Smith. It feels like they, you know, tasted the losing season. We're like, all right, we're not doing that again.

And I think that they did do enough in free agency to, you know, make a difference. Plus, they get a lot of guys back that had opted out last year. It was just kind of a perfect storm last season for them to, you know, kind of like fall off the map. But, yeah, I would say 10-7 sounds like a good Patriots record. All right, Doug, I am going to go with the over on this one. I actually think the Patriots are going to be an 11 win team this season. They went 7 and 9 last season.

They made significant improvements across their roster, not only on offense, but also on defense. And just to sort of tell you guys the amount of changes they made on offense last season. So last year, Cam Newton was throwing to players like Jacob Johnson. He was throwing to players like Ryan Izzo. He was throwing to players like Demir Bird. And now he has actual NFL. players around him like Johnny Smith, Hunter Henry, Nelson Aguilar, no matter what you think about the contract, he's at least a starting NFL player, Kendrick Forren, Jacoby Myers, all of these guys on

defense. They had, they were using a lot of guys that you've probably never heard of like Therese Hall and Nick Thurman and Akeem Spence on defense. And now once again, they put actual NFL players on defense like Matt Judon, Kyle Van Nuoy is back, Dante Hightower is back. So I think that no matter how the quarterback even really plays this season, Cam Newton, it barely matters. Like, they're going to be so much better just based on everything else that they put around either Cam Newton or Mack Jones or whoever is it quarterback. Combined that with Bill Belichick. And I've, I've been saying 11 wins for them. I think that they'll be right up there with the Buffalo bills. Oh, all right. Nora, let's get your number and then we'll have a bigger discussion.

I'm over too. I would have said 10 wins, but I think the fact that Bill Belichick, whatever system is in place there squeezed seven out of that group, particularly of receiving talent last season, the more we think about it and the more we see the way that they've behaved this offseason, it just sort of seems crazier and crazier. I think with that amount of talent coming in, there's almost no way that they don't improve fairly significantly. Yeah. And it kind of makes you feel like seven is the floor.

So I don't think it would be that challenging for them to get to 10 wins. Does anyone in this group believe that Cam Newton starts more games than Mac Jones is sure? I do not. I think it's possible. Well, Doug would be the most likely to know. Yeah, no, that's why. Danny and I were just waiting, waiting for Doug to just make us smarter. Danny's watching Elijah more highlights.

I mean, look at the way Cam Newton played last season. I know that Patriots fans or a subset of Patriots fans hate Cam Newton, but He completed 65% of his passes last season, had 12 rushing touchdowns, passing touchdowns were ugly, eight touchdowns, interceptions. But like I said, he was throwing to Jacob Johnson and Ryan Izzo half the time.

So I think that you put legitimate weapons around him, and those stats will be much better. I think the Patriots will probably have to lose at least a few games in a row for Bill Belichick to actually bench Cam Newton, assuming he's the starter at the beginning of the season, which I think we all kind of believe is going to happen. So I think they will take a sense.

significant change for him to actually be benched. And if you look at who's going to start this season, Bill Belichick kind of hesitates to start rookies in general. And I think that over the last, since 2016, there's been 23 first round picks at quarterback, and only four of them have started week one of the season. So it would be a pretty major surprise if the fifth quarterback taken in the 2021 draft was actually the week one starter,

especially with Bill Belichick as his head coach. Doug, I have a question for you. There was some videos being circulated the other day where Cam Newton was missing people egregiously, and then Mac Jones was just lobbing these, like, you know, just touch passes to guys in the end zone. And it was like people were freaking out about this on Twitter. And what was your, what's your impression been of how both of them looked? I know that Cam Newton's missed some time. But is there any indication that Mac Jones is ahead of where we think he is in terms of, like,

is there really a chance he's going to be the starter? not to me i think that those were cherry-picked clips that were used and that that's not the cam newton that we were seeing the entire like you know during o'teas and minicamp and all that stuff those were probably his worst throws or whatever that were hand-picked and then some of mac jones i guess better throws even though they were kind of lollipop throws that were thrown there but honestly this is going to sound really bad for cam newton and mac jones but there wasn't really a significant indifference between Mac Jones, Cam Newton, and even Jared Sidham

and Brian Hoyer. Oh, Hoyer, Week 1, here it comes. Hoyer was, he definitely got the fewest opportunities, but he also had maybe one of the better practices among quarterbacks. So, I mean, he's probably going to be the number three or four quarterback, obviously, the season, depending on how many they keep.

But it was so much different than watching a Tom Brady practice, which we did for years, where there was clearly one much better quarterback, and then everyone else. This year was kind of like, I don't know. They all kind of look the same, which is kind of good for Mack Jones because he's a rookie and he's never played in the NFL before.

But at the same time, I didn't think that he was out there looking significantly better than everyone else or anything like that. Wow. All right. I actually wanted to get into Tom Brady practice stories, but I realized that was going to put us on an off ramp that lasted us 30 minutes. Miami Dolph-I would, just to be clear, I would come back from vacation for that episode. Tom Brady practice stories?

Riscilla does backup quarterback stories that are kind of similar to that. Where he just has guys on and he's just like, hey. Yeah. What's the funny thing that happens? Yeah, exactly. Backup quarterbacks, great, great storytellers. Yeah. Most of life is, hey, what's the funny thing that happened?

Yeah. Yeah. That's it. Hey, man. Remember that funny time? That's it. But instead of talking about college, you're talking about Carson Palmer. You know, ghosts.

That's true. Miami Dolphins, it is true. We are talking about Carson Palmer. Miami Dolphins 9.5, Danny Kelly. Kevin, did you give it over under other Patriots? They're going over. I think they're a competent team. I think that they really did.

I think that Bill Belichick's ability to make something out of nothing is well documented. And there's actual talent now. I don't think, you know, Adam Gase or David Collier, these guys would win a ton with this roster. But I think Bill Belichick can get something there. And I kind of think I don't think that overpaying a bunch of these guys was wise.

But I do think if you just give them these 53 guys Bill Belichick and win double-dig-james with them. So I'm fine with this. Miami Dolphins, Danny Kelly. Yeah. So I feel like I'm taking the risk of going over on all these teams. So I guess maybe I also think the AFC East is going to be better than maybe some people think. But I'm going to pick the over. even despite Tua's now legendary five interception practice the other day.

I just think, you know, same sort of story. Like they're a balanced team. I think they're going to get pretty drastically, dramatically improved play on offense, especially from Tua. But I think having Will Fuller, having Jalen Waddle, you know, in that offense, they're getting some guys back. I think that they're an ascending team.

Last year they won 10 games. So is this a better team than they were last year? I believe so. Strength of schedule-wise, they're the 10th team in terms of the easiest schedule. So they're right there with the bills. And maybe that has to do with the fact they're playing other AFC East team. So I don't know, like the Jets maybe factor in there too.

But I don't know. I just feel like, yeah, their defense is solid. They're a smartly coached team. I think Tua is going to make a jump, even if it's not like into the elite tier. I think he's definitely going to make a jump from what we saw last year. and overall just balanced good team, nine and a half. Again, it just feels like the number is too low. Nora?

Yeah, I said over too because for basically the same logic as Danny's, I think they're a better team, particularly on offense than they were last year. I will say this was one that I kind of pitched the over with my eyes closed a little bit, just because I do think that especially this time of year, it's really, really, really easy to look at who the quarterback is throwing the ball to and not pay a ton of attention to protection in particular. And they've got a lot of young offensive linemen who, if they all kind of gel and take a leap at the same time,

then this is a pretty good stable offense with a lot of things going right. That said, a lot of those guys have struggled in the early parts of their careers. So I kind of, you know, had one hand in front of my eyes, the other typing into my notes that I was taking me over. But I think they can take a moderate step forward from last season. That's really all they'd need to hit this. Doug? I'm going with the under on this one, but that's mostly because I don't really trust Tua that much. I'm going to make a six flags analogy since I just came back from six flags in England.

I love this. This is why he booked you. Last season. I feel like the Miami Dolphins had not only the lap bar, but then they also had the little seatbelt underneath it. And Ryan Fitzpatrick was the seatbelt. Just in case the lap bar fails, you've still got the seatbelt under there.

This year, they've got Jacoby Brissette, not quite as good of a seatbelt, maybe fraying a little bit, you know, not quite as dependable, doesn't have the history in the offense. And I think that if Tua falters, and I think that based on last season, I think it's possible that Tua could fly,

Walter. I don't think that I'm not personally that confident in Tua, based on what I saw last year. I think that he could take a step forward this season. But, you know, other rookie quarterbacks, Joe Burrow looked better last season. Obviously, Justin Herbert looked better. Those guys were drafted higher than him, but, or I guess Herbert wasn't, uh, uh, Burrow was. But I don't know, I think it all just plainly comes down to a lack of confidence into it for me. Fraying seatbelt on the roller coaster is ominous. It's true. I think the answer is

is probably, probably under. And again, part of this, Danny is what you're saying, which is that I want to say over for everybody. And I would not be surprised if the Dolphins win a playoff game this year. I just think that there's, we're typically a year too early on team instead of a year,

instead of right on time when we hype up a team. And I think that this, I think we might be looking at the dolphins for as, legitimately good in 2022 and maybe maybe maybe have some some growing pains on that sort of trajectory from good to great in 2021 again a lot of talent there I love chris greer love brian flores and i think too is interesting i just need to see a little bit more before i put them into kind of the group that that is nailed on to win double digit games um all right next division it's the afc south let's start with the houston texans because

Because on the last podcast, I said one of my favorite bets was them going 0 and 17. So I don't really have to answer this particular question. We'll start with Norprinciotti. It's four, by the way. Four is the number. I'm going to take the under. You really don't have to extrapolate. You really don't have to extrapolate on that one.

Speaking of roller coasters with fraying seat belts. I am also going to take the under. I don't believe in Tyrod Taylor. I don't believe in Davis Mills. I don't believe in Jeff Driscoll or whoever else they have a quarterback there. And I don't think that Deshawn Watson will probably wind up playing this season. So that is a team that needs this complete rebuild. I think it's going to be coming next season.

And yeah, two, three wins somewhere around there for them. The Jeff Driscoll thing is really something else. Jeff Driscoll lost to a very mediocre university Miami team when he was at Florida. And that's a huge, if Al Golden got you, that's a red flag. Under from me. Danny Kelly. Yeah, I'm going under also. In addition to everything that, you know, has transpired in this offseason with the,

with the Texans, including there, maybe what to me was the most hilarious free agent class I've ever seen in my life. Just how many, like, low-end veteran journeymen can we sign in one free agent? period, I think was just like the, you know, sort of like how that their offseason was defined. The other thing is, again, and I don't think strength of schedule is like everything and we can't really necessarily predict it here. But they, according to sharp football, they have the second hardest schedule. So that terrible roster with the terrible QB play, you know, I just don't see many wins in their future. And I just, I think that they're basically just tanking. Like they,

they're all but tanking. That's why they went out and did this with, you know, know, their roster, you know, they're basically filling out the roster with mid-level, low-level veterans and just going to kind of like play for later when they have more draft picks. Like, no one, including, I'm sure the ownership is like expecting this team to be good right away. I think that that's, I'm guessing that's why, you know, Nick Casario signed on for this. And it's going to take a while because they were just completely, you know, gutted from a draft capital point of view going into the season. And so, yeah, I would say the under is a safe bet.

So I was kind of just joking about the Jeff Triscoll thing. It's kind of a non-event. I just wanted to bring up that game, the Ford of Miami game. But the Texans are maybe the only franchise in history to have the absolute worst year out of any franchise last year. Had to fire their coach and GM, don't have any draft picks, negotiated a massive deal for one of their tackles who had all the leverage in the world because they overpaid for them in a trade. a preacher, character coach, whatever you want to call it, had a hostile takeover of the organization. And from an on-field standpoint,

things are going to get worse from there. Like, everything is just get, I don't know when it's supposed to get better. Like the phrase dead cat bounce sometimes applies where it's like at some point, something has to just get up a little bit, even if it's just a mirage. I don't know how there's going to be anything

here. So it's under and it's it's with authority. Houston had the 30th ranked defense per DVOA last year. They didn't get significantly better and their offense has been completely gutted. Other than that though. I just, yeah, I don't know. Jacksonal Jaguars, Nora Princeati has a Jacksonville Jaguars take show unleashed on this podcast a couple of weeks ago. We're back at it. Nor are Jacksonville Jaguars 6.5. Yeah, I'm taking the over.

people don't realize how much talent there is, particularly on offense on this roster. I think, you know, Trevor Lawrence is not going to, I don't know if they're going to make the playoffs. I don't think that the Jaguars are a year one Trevor Lawrence playoff team, but the combination of being a little feisty on offense, a quarterback who seems like the best bet for a rookie in a long time to be able to come in and be good right away and be just sort of a professional NFL starting quarterback right away. Plus, Urban Meyer, who I'm not sure is like the long-term solution, but can gussy something up in a hurry, if need be, I think. I just think they'll be a pretty good, fun team that could, you know, win eight games their first season with Trevor Lawrence. Woof.

This is a take. I like it. Danny Kelly over under. I think I agree, though. I think so their schedule isn't. isn't tough. According to Sharp, it's, it's, uh, the fourth easiest in the NFL. I do think that Trevor Lawrence is going to give them big downs. They play the Texans twice. There's two for you. Um, they play. Let's, I'm looking through their schedule here. The Falcons, which I think could be a

winnable game for sure. The Jets. I did just sing the Jets as praises a little bit, but I think that's still definitely a winnable game. I don't know. I do think that like Norris said, there's more talent on this and on both sides of the ball really than people kind of, um, I think are assuming. I think that Lawrence is going to be a big factor. It's going to be, you know, worth a couple of wins at least. I do think that Bevel is a good offensive coordinator for them and could kind of like design some things that get Lawrence going from, you know, from the get going and get this offense rolling.

They're going to need some guys to take jumps, I think, obviously, in year, like in year two or year three or whatever they are in their career. But I think like Josh Allen is a good pass rusher. I think they've got like some talented guys on their defense. their secondary is going to be much improved, I think, from last year. Sounds like Leviska-Chanald is, like, really lighting it up at training camp so he could be a year-two guy that makes a jump. I think that DJ Chark is a guy who really fell off last year, but he is very talented and could, you know, get back on track. I don't know.

It just feels like everything went wrong for them last year. And, you know, they'll almost just like regress to the mean here and this year. And that will mean something like, you know, seven wins, eight wins. Doug? You guys have convinced me. I honestly would not have thought of taking the over on this one. But you guys have convinced me, I mean, who was it quarterback last season? Other than Gardner Venture, they had Jake Luton there.

It was, it was ugly. Now they've got Trevor Lawrence. I have to believe in Trevor Lawrence. I have to believe in Trevor Lawrence. And I think that Trevor Lawrence can get them to, what is it, seven wins they need. Seven and ten, that's not that, that's not that good of a record, you know? I think they can pull it off. It's a word.

This is my every one of my talking points throughout. the 17 game NFL season. But I don't know. I mean, I know it sounds crazy. It's Urban Meyer. It's craziness. Tim Tebow's involved. I think you got to believe.

Over. Okay. You do not quote, got to believe because Tim Tebow's involved. No, thank you. Just cell phone service just went out. Thank God. I'm going under just in case.

I don't want four overs on the Jacksonville Jagger's podcast. But it occurs. Let's just get that. Oh, just get that. that out of here. All right, Indianapolis Colts. This is the team we've talked about a lot this offseason. We know what the question mark is. We know that the roster is good. Otherwise, it's just quarterback play. The number is 9.5. I'll start with Norrisiotti. Yeah, I'm going under. I will believe it when I see it with Carson Wentz. I understand why they did it at

that cost as an organization. I just think that the Colts have done a really good job the last few years of taking a pretty bad hand of surprise franchise quarterback retirement and preferred head coach ditching them at the 11th hour and turning it into something where they still somehow maintain like good structure and organizational stability and field good rosters and win a lot of games. That's unbelievably impressive. And I think that roster construction and stability is the only reason why this total is as high as it is. But Carson once was really bad last season. And until I see something that changes that

sense in that opinion, I don't really see how you can pick them to be a 10-1 team. Doug, you're in a car. Now is the time to do it. Once and for all, what happened with the Josh Chandler's cult saying? Well, I'm no longer going to talk about five months, so I can't discuss that matter. I'm actually going to go over on this one. Don't change this subject.

Don't breeze past my very pointed question. Josh McDaniels is in the backseat. To report news that you haven't reported anywhere else. I mean, the truthful answer to that question is that I don't really know. Isn't it that no one knows? Isn't like a two people know kind of thing? it's probably, yeah, Josh McDaniels and Robert Kraft, like maybe Jonathan Kraft knows. Bill Belichick knows. Maybe. Maybe. Maybe he knows. I'm not sure. You know, Josh McDaniels is essentially

like a second head coach at this point for them. But no, I mean, the answer to your question is that I have no idea. I think like three or four people in the world, though. Okay. All right, 9.5. And I'm going to go the over on that one, like I said. I think that Carson once was so bad last season that he's another one who kind of has to, you know, return to the mean a little bit this season. I actually didn't hate Carson Wentz as a quarterback acquisition this offseason. I think the Patriots probably should have gone after him when he was available because he he didn't cost that much. I mean, he wound up costing a conditional pick. And if he winds up being good, then that could wind up being a pretty good deal for the Colts. Philip Rivers was good

last season. It's not like he was lighting the world on fire. And I don't think that Carson Wentz has to be that big of a drop off from Philip Rivers. If we're, you know, simply looking at the quarterback position for the Colts this season. Daniel Kelly. This one's tough for me. I think I'm going under and it's like a nine win team because their nine and a half is over under. I do think that they're going to have a good defense. I think there are some question marks still where they're going to get pass rush, things like that.

but overall they'll have a strong defense. DeVos Buccner is a superstar in the middle there, and they'll figure out a way to get that all done. But I do think there's so many question marks on offense. Even the, you know, the quote, elite offensive line has some question marks. You know, with Eric Fisher coming in as the left tackle, I think Sam Tevey is going to be the guy initially. But you've got the question mark of Carson Wentz.

You've got the question mark for, you know, the weapons around him. Is Michael Pittman going to take a big jump next year? Is Paris Campbell going to say? stay healthy. Is T.Y. Hilton going to fall off a cliff? You know, is Jonathan Taylor going to take the next jump and be that elite running back that they think he can be? Is he going to be involved in all three downs or is he still going to be sort of just like rotating in? I do trust the coaching, but I just think there's a lot of question marks. I do think that they'll be, you know, like they'll be competing for the playoffs and

they'll be above 500. But I don't know. I kind of just think that they'll have the under here, nine wins. And there's going to be a lot of questions. questions like still, you know, like going into the postseason if they do make the playoffs. Yeah, I go under only because if the question mark is quarterback, that's a pretty darn big question mark. Yeah. Okay. Like I think it might something that we talk about a lot is, what's the team's path? What's what has to break right? And if what has to break right is the quarterback, that that concerns me. So I'm going under for now. Tennessee Titans nine. Doug Hyde. I'm going to go over on this one as well. I do feel like I'm saying over a lot.

at this point. But yeah, that's called positive energy, Doug. We love it here. I'm feeling very positive. Like I said, first day of vacation, being very positive. Just another team where you trust the head coach. I think that, you know,

they lose the offensive coordinator. They lose Arthur Smith. But I think that they're still in pretty good shape coaching wise. They've still got obviously Ryan Tanna Hill at quarterback. You had, you know, A.J. Brown, Julio Jones, Derek Henry in there. I just, I don't know why other than losing Arthur Smith, they would get worse this season.

I just don't see a major poll on their roster that's going to make them significantly worse in 2021. So I think that they're probably going to be one of the better, you know, AFC teams again this season. Nora? Yeah. So I'm going over for them too, but I will say I agree. I think they're a 10-win team. The problem with the Titans is what has to break. for them is they have to stay healthy because it's a good roster, but it's a really thin one.

It's really top heavy. They're kind of like, they're kind of like the AFC Rams in some ways in that respect where it's just like there are there are potential key injuries on that team that all of a sudden would make, for instance, the receiving core, which looks awesome right now, get pretty scary in short order. And I think in particular, after losing Arthur Smith, there's a little bit less margin for air for them. So I'm going over because it's a really good roster right now. And if they have pretty good health, they look like a 10-win team to me, but it just gives it, there was a little pause there. Daniel? I think this is a perfect number for the, for the over

under nine, because I kind of feel like they're a nine-win team. I do think that the Julio trade was huge for them. I know that some people were like, oh, I don't know if it makes them any better. But I do think it gives them that edge, especially in situations where, where, you know, Tanna Hill's not necessarily able to rely on, like,

the mechanics that make their offense run. Like, it's Derek Henry pounded the football and then running play action, throwing it deep, having guys with yards after the catch, all that stuff. But a lot of the time, when you're in third and eight, third nine, third and turn ten, that play action is really not in play. And, you know,

you're not necessarily going to be able to rely on guys like AJ Brown picking up eight, nine yards and getting a first down after the catch. So you have to really have him step up and make a big pass. I think having Julio out there is another guy that makes it impossible for them to, or if they're going to double team anybody, it's like you have to pick your poison, AJ Brown, Julio Jones. So I think that's big for their offense and could help mitigate the loss of Arthur Smith, who I think is a very good play caller. but they're similar to me to the Colts in the sense that I think they have to have a lot of stuff go right on defense and well just in general too like stay healthy on offense and then have a lot of things go right on defense you know if Caleb Farley comes in and lights are all on fire that's obviously going to help their defense a lot but that's definitely not like a given and then their pass rush is a huge question mark you know

they didn't you know they did sign in free agency, but DePree, but you know, you're asking a lot of him to come in and kind of like change that defense, change the pass rush. So that to me is a big worry. And so I'm guessing it's going to be pretty poor defense again and their offense can be really good. And I think in theory, the offense is going to be good enough to propel them to the playoffs. And nine wins really just looks like the number to me. So I know I can't push. I guess I'll go over. But that nine looks like a perfect number. I want to push too. We don't do that here on this podcast. We don't do that. So I'll say over, I guess. I think the Julio thing is big to them. I'm going to say over too, but I don't, I'm just,

it's a lean. It's a lean. It's like when Nate Silver and those guys released their, their, uh, total map projections. The needle? Yeah, I'm leaning over here. Also, Kevin, you're calling Danny Daniel a lot. Yeah. He's Irish. He's Irish like me. We do a lot of full names here. Danny, what's your middle name? Brolly. Brawley? Yeah.

Is that someone's... Very Irish name. It's my... Danny Brawley, Kelly? Yeah, it's my grandmother's maiden name. Yeah. Yeah, my middle name is my mother's maiden name. There you go.

We don't let names die out in... No, definitely. In Ireland. That's not happening. We're just going to jam them in. in there. Okay. Well, you would definitely be a good name to say in an Irish

accent, too. Yeah. I'm not even going to try it, but I agree with you. Please. Well, listen, we got a lot of time left in this podcast and if you feel like you'd like to. I really don't want to. Speaking of the floor is yours. AFC North Pittsburgh Steelers, Norprin, Seattle, you absolutely

despise this team. Okay. Can you stop trying to make people come for me? Well, George Shihari wants people in Pittsburgh to hate him. And so the heat was taken off of you in the last podcast because he was all about it. And he actually kind of took a dig at the city of Pittsburgh in the entire region, which was a choice. I love bridges.

Big bridge fan. Huge fan of bridges. I'm right here for it. Yeah. Are there a lot of bridges? Is that a thing? I've been to Pittsburgh once. Yeah.

No, I mean, like there's a lot of bridges in New York, too. but nobody's like, whoa, bridges. Pittsburgh is known for bridges. Really? Because there's three rivers. Three rivers. There's a bunch of rivers in New York. Requires a lot of bridges.

Two, primarily. Yeah, too. But New York also has tunnels. So it's a little bit less like the bridge is the thing. And I think... I'm a big Western PA guy, by the way. I don't want to... I don't want this narrative to get out there.

I'm not a big Western PA guy. Well, so here's the thing. I think New York's bridges are known in and of themselves. I think Pittsburgh is known for its collective having of bridges. New York might be known for more than the bridges, too.

Yeah, I'm taking the under. They have one of the hardest schedules in the entire league, and it looked like their quarterback didn't really remember how to play football towards the end of last season. I would still guess they win maybe eight games,

just because the defense is good. Tomlin's a great coach. there's enough going on there where I don't think that they're going to totally bottom out but they're going to have to go through a real gaunt

you know particularly in the division but also in some ways one of the worst things they did for themselves was win the division last season because they have a first place

schedule and they have really tough division so I just think that it's going to be wins are going to be pretty hard to come by for them well I'm sorry that they won sorry that they disappointed you

and won the division because they're a winning franchise full of Take the over here. I have a bridge to sell you. Oh. Daniel Braley-Calley, Pittsburgh Steelers.

I'm not quite buying the demise of the Steelers yet. I'm going over. So last year, the number one ranked defense. Well, screw you. I'm just kidding. They still have a very solid defense.

You know, losing Dupree will be, you know, it's not like ideal, but I think that, there's still enough defense across the board for them to be a very good defense again. You know, a lot of continuity in terms of like obviously Tomlin's still there. Front office, very, very stable.

I'm very interested to see what's going to happen with this Matt Canada run offense, which is really a Ben Vrothusberger run offense in likelihood. Even with him just checking down, you know, 75% of the time, I still think they have enough talent in Deonti Johnson, Chase Claypool, Juju Smith-Schuster. James Washington, even like Ray Ray McLeod's getting a little bit of hype this off season. I think they just have so much talent on that offense and get Najee Harris in there. I don't think Harris is going to fix their run game, but he's certainly going to be a plus in the passing game out of the backfield.

And so I'm not saying this is going to be an elite team, but I still see them winning, you know, what's the overrunner right? What is it? Eight and a half. I see them winning nine games easily. I think that's still going to be a good team. It's sort of funny that how often I look at these numbers and go, I wish they were a lower.

And then I just realized that that's the entire point of this thing. Right. Funny how that works. Doug Kyd. I'm going to go with the over as well. I kind of want to go under just because I don't truly believe in Ben Rothesberger, but it does feel like they have everything around him to make it work for them to be a finish the season with a winning record.

I do think that Najee Harris is pretty big. It might not surprise many people that I've watched a lot of Mack Jones in the last few months. And I don't think that Nagee Harris is exactly a special mover with his, with his legs and his body and everything. But he's definitely a guy who can catch the ball and he's got a lot of versatility. I think that that actually adds a decent amount to the Steelers offense. I think that he can just be an improvement over what they had last season. And obviously a lot of this does spend on Ben Wolfsberger's health. But I think that he can be good enough to just get them over that hump and be above 500 team.

I'm going under, but I think the answer is 8 flat. I think it's an 8-9 situation for Pittsburgh. Cincinnati Bengals 6.5, Brawley. This is tough. I think I'm going to go with the under simply because I think the other two teams in this division are too good. They're just going to, they're running into a buzzsaw division. really. I think they're going to be improved team. And I think that Joe Burrow is going to be a good quarterback eventually.

This offense is going to be a lot of fun to watch. They're going to score a lot of points. They're going to kind of play really fast, but I think they're going to be playing from behind a lot. And I don't think the defense is going to take a big jump this year. So I'm going to under. I think they're still going to be pretty bad, but like an ascending team generally, if that makes any sense. No, that tracks totally. I mean, it's what happens when I have a young quarterback and you have a generally young team and a and a coach who I think this is third year. So yeah, it's not, it's not inconsistent at all. Nora, Bengals, you kind of like the Bengals.

Yeah, I'm going over. I really liked what Joe Burrow did, obviously, before getting hurt last season. Nora, do you have a Bengals, Jaguars, AFC championship game? I don't. So, okay, I just wanted to make sure. But if there were an NIT for the AFC. A Europa League?

Are you familiar with the Europa League? Yeah. Yeah. Europa League champion. That would be Bengals Jaguars. Bengals Jaguars championship game. I love it. But I'm going over six and a half.

I really think the Bengals could win, I mean, seven games certainly, but I think they could be, wait, let me get this right. Eight and nine. There you go.

Nailed it. Wow. Horrible. It is horrible. But I think they could, be like in the Jeff Fisher zone, you know, the new Jeff Fisher zone. The new Jeff Fisher zone. Wow. We're moving the goalpost in the Jeff Fisher zone. Has anyone asked Jeff Fisher about this? We got to come back on Sol Newsday. We must. It's a must. Doug. I'm going with the under and that's

only because I think that the AFC, you know, North is, is too difficult in general. I think that they're clearly the fourth team in that division. And like Danny was saying, I just think that they're another year away. They're definitely a young team. They're definitely ascending. I'm not sure if I have full confidence in the head coach there. But this is a team that I think could be competitive in 2022, not quite ready in 2021. Nora, have you picked the overs on all of the cat teams? Is this about... Wow. Panthers? I didn't notice I did that, but I'm, I'm for it. Somebody asked me the other day if I was a dog person. And I would self-describe as a dog person,

but whenever I say that I always feel like I have to say, but I love cats too. Cats get underappreciated. You are a dog person. Underrated. Cats are underrated. I'm an animal person, ultimately. Hmm.

I went to the aquarium this weekend. Which is Chicago one? Yeah, shed. Is that on Navy Pier? No, you can see Navy Pier from it, but Navy Pier is a little further north. one thing that I did is I've combined all Chicago landmarks into one thing. And also the lake shore to me is very small.

So I was actually amazing the other day about this bears moving the stadium thing. And he was just like, you know, Soldier Fields far from everything. And I'm like, no, it's not. And then you look at a map and it's like, oh, yeah, it turns out Chicago is a massive city. And I just view it as it's very small. You'll view like Lake Yole and Orlando where everything is like, you know, a quarter mile. Big city. The lake's really big.

Yep. The lake is extremely large. Like is extremely large. Okay. That's, I'm going to go under just because I agree, Danny, this is a little bit of a buzzsaw of a division and the Bengals are the worst team. And that's just sort of how this operates. All right, I'm saving these two because I want to compare and contrast.

Like, it's an essay question. The Browns and the Ravens, because this is one of the most remarkable. I mean, this is, this could be the best race in the NFL probably. Both these teams are healthy and we get to see what this looks like. Cleveland Browns will start with. The win total is 10.5, but it's been a long time since that was the win. There was a double-digit

win projection for the Cleveland Browns. Nor at 10.5, Cleveland Browns. Yeah, I'm going over. I think the Browns are the best team in this division. I think this could be an incredible year for Baker Mayfield. I will just continue to drum it in

in case anybody's forgotten from our show last week. That was definitely not recorded three hours ago. Baker Mayfield was one of the best quarterbacks in football for the second half of last season through the playoffs. And his ability to carry that over, I think should be like that's something I would be totally willing to bet on this season with Stefanski still there. He's got an opportunity to have more continuity than he's had in any other offseason. And they should be getting O'Dell Beckham Jr. back. The offensive line is fantastic.

I think they'll be in good situations with what they've done with their sense. secondary. I think 10 and a half is, it's too low. And when it's too low, you take the over. So I'm taking it for the Browns. Classic math. Classic. Doug Kai, Cleveland Browns. I'm going over as well. I don't see them going 10 and 7. They're just a better team than that. And one thing that's looking at the Browns roster, which I think is kind of interesting, is here in New England and obviously Patriots fans in New England media wants the Patriots to trade for absolutely everyone. but for some reason, Odell Pickham Jr. has kind of picked up Steam as a potential trade candidate.

And I don't really understand that while looking at the Brown's roster. If they did that, would they just run their entire offense in like 22 personnel or something or like 23 personnel? I don't know who the other. That A11, that A11 offense where everyone goes out into routes. And I mean, they do kind of have the personnel for that. They've got three pretty good tight ends. They've got obviously the two good running backs. But no, I just think that they're a well-built team.

Just with Baker Mayfield, Kevin Spansky, they're not winning. They're not losing seven games. I'm with Doug on his point about there's no real logic in the Browns trading Odell. But I also think that they have a pretty good receiver in depth because they've got Landry. They've got Richard Higgins, who was pretty good last season when he needed to step in. People's Jones will get some snaps. And then the tight end room is good. Like one of the things that I like about them the most is that they just have so many options, right?

Like they can, if somebody has a little nagging injury, they're going to have guys to fill in. If there's whatever play they want to run, like they drafted Anthony Schwartz, who's super, super fast. So if they want to run sweeps, motion stuff, get him going down the field. I think they'll be able to do some cool stuff there. Like, there's just so much diversity in what they can do, at least right now, without, you know, weird. trading O'Dell Beckham or something like that on offense, that it, that and the stability metrics for Baker just give me so much confidence that they'll be able to not only just be good, but take a couple hits, withstand a couple injuries.

Brolly? Yeah, I agree. I think basically I agree with what everyone has already said. I think that they are just a good, solid team with a very defined philosophy of very defined identity. They're going to stick to it. It kind of remind me a little bit of, like, the early Seahawks in the sense that, like, you know that they're going to get, like, a very good foundational run game. That's going to be what they build everything off of.

I don't think that Baker Mayfield is as good as Russell Wilson, so that might be... That was going to be my next question. Compare and contrast those dudes. I don't think he's as good, but I do think he can run that offense pretty efficiently. And so that might be all what they... That might be all they need. I think their defense is going to be strong. I'm very excited to see what happens with Miles Garrett lined up opposite

Genevian Clownie. I don't know if Clowny's got if he's like the type of guy that put a team over the hump or whatever, but lining up opposite Garrett is certainly going to be an advantage for him. So I think that's going to be a fun to watch. I think just, yeah, I mean, they got good depth. They got a really good offensive line. They've got a philosophy.

They stick to it. And, you know, I think that they're going to, that just gives them like that 10, 11 win, like baseline. I do think that they're going to hit the old. over here. Interesting. All right. So the next, obviously, the, the next team is Baltimore Ravens.

Their win total is 11. And when I guess we can answer it in these questions. By the way, I'm going over for the Browns. We can answer the question. But when you say over and under, say who you think is going to win the division, Doug Kide. That's very difficult. I guess I'll go over and pick.

the Ravens to win the division. One thing that worries me on the Ravens is just losing Matt Judon. I think that that means a lot more snaps for Tyos Bowser, who's a player that they've really only wanted to put in a part-time role

up to this point. And then they wound up paying him basically like a starter in free agency this offseason. They lose Matt Judon. So obviously he's going to slot into that role. But I think that you just lose a really good versatile defender and Matt Judon and don't have an obvious replacement who can be as good.

But overall, I think that Lamar Jackson, you know, it's all I tie everything to quarterbacks, but I do think that Lamar Jackson's going to be better than he was last season. He's going to be more than Lamar Jackson that he was in 2019. And that's why I could see this team taking other step forward. And yeah, winning the division over the Browns. Danny? Yeah. I felt pretty good about the Ravens this year. I share the concerns about the pass rush. I think that's going to be the big thing. But this is, I just think this team, the offense is going to be really, really good.

They're going to score a lot of points. They can control the clock. I do think their passing game is going to be improved. And this is something I've been sort of preaching in the fantasy podcast. But like they've told us with the last couple drafts, like two out of three of their last three drafts, they've drafted receiver in the first round. I mean, they want to get more efficient. They want to get more explosive in the passing game.

And I think that Rashad Bateman, Sammy Watkins, they're going to be improvement, significant upgrades over what they had last year at receiver. I think Mark Andrews is going to bounce back from what was pretty bad season last year. And at the end of the day, this is like a pretty diverse, multiple, hard-to-defend offense, you know, from the run game to Lamar Jackson,

what he can do as a runner. I think J.K. Dobbins is an elite runner. And I think the receiving core is going to do enough to, like, help Lamar Jackson in the situation. The same deal, what I was saying about the Titans is like on third and eight, third nine, third and ten, like that's been where Lamar Jackson's gotten into trouble. But I think the new weapons that they have, Bateman can come in and immediately be like a new number one. I think that could help them a lot. And so even if their defense takes a step back, I think their offense, which is already good, can take another step forward.

And so I don't know. I just see, it's going to be tough to compete with this team, I think. So the Ravens, I think will win the division. And so over for me. Nora, Baltimore, 11. So I think 11 is like really I would love to push here. It's hard for me. I feel like I have a logical problem.

Just say it. Just say it. The number is just too high. That's not what I think. I feel like I have a logic problem in picking the Browns over. But maybe I just think that the Steelers are going to lose all their games and the Ravens can go over this as well. but I just feel like 11 is the sweet spot for them.

I just worry about, I worry about how all the pieces on their offense fit together. And I know they've done a lot to improve their receiving room and to try to be able to have more of a downfield passing game next season. And it could work out. I just, they give me more, I feel like they have fewer ways to have an explosive offense than the Browns do. And I also feel like given that there,

are some questions about the past rush. You know, historically, they've been really good at scheming that stuff up, so they don't necessarily need the Miles Garrett types and the world beaters. But I just have fewer guys on that team where I'm like, whoa, that's a really plus, plus position group relative to Cleveland. So I think the Browns are a stronger team. It kind of comes down to the quarterback. I think Lamar is great.

I just really, really, really believe that if Baker Mayfield can be the quarterback that he was in the second half of last season, for the most part during a full season, that Cleveland will have a really, really great season. So it's really more about that than it is about not believing in the Ravens. I love Lamar. I think they're going to be a great team. Really, I think about 11 wins is right for them. But I'd rather, you know, go ahead over that than under it,

because I do still think that they're one of the best teams in the UFC. Would you rather, if you were an owner, have John Harbaugh or Kevin Supansky as your coach? Um, Harbaugh. I agree. I agree. I would just, when we're talking about the roster town and all that stuff, I just wanted if he saw a difference between those two and it was significant. It's not that significant, but I would, I think he's just, basically he's more proven. But Harbaugh.

And I just think he's underratedly creative, too. I agree. Or if he's not the one who's creating some of those, either whether that's the offense or the trick plays or not me else. He's special teams coach, defensive backs coach at one point. he empowers people to be creative. So it's not just the creativity. It's the empowerment to be, to take chances. What it really is is that he's a, he's,

I mean, he's not that old, but he's like a quote unquote old school coach who's been around for a long time and has all the institutional knowledge. And also just does not seem to really ever be one of those guys who's like, this is the way that we've always done it. He's remarkably flexible for someone who's done that. So I think he's one of the best coaches out there. But I also like Kevin Stavansky a lot. I love it.

I think they're both amazing. And we've done a lot of as to fancy content over this offseason last year. And we are in agreement on that one. All right. Last division, AFC West. Probably know who's going to win this one. Probably don't need to do the same exercise as we did on the last one. Let's start with the Denver Broncos who are 8.5.

Danny Kelly. Yeah, I think I'm going to go the under on this one too. I think, you know, they feel like an eight-win-old. team to me, good talent on defense, good talent in the skill position group. And I think that they're a good young team that has potential, but they are a quarterback away, which is why them deciding to pass on Justin Fields in the draft was such a mystifying decision to me. And deciding to go with like what they're doing at quarterback right now. Like obviously, if Aaron, if Aaron Rogers ends up on this team, then that's a totally different discussion. But I still don't

know if they're good enough to like kind of. get over the hump from where they were last year. So I'd say there'll be a competitive team, but eight wins feels about right. So I'm going the under. Nora. I'm going under too. I can see Teddy getting them to nine, but even though I love the roster, it's just one of those situations where, okay, you ask yourself, what has to break right?

And if the answer is quarterback, and I worry that they will stick with Drew Locke longer than they should, it gives you pause. So I've got some pause. So I'm going under. And their schedule actually isn't terrible. for a team in a brutal division, but they're still in a brutal division. Doug already delivered a stunning monologue on this.

A lot of people were talking about it. It goes down in history. It's like the Macbeth tomorrow soliloquy. And he's going to have to do it again because he had some technical problems. So take it from the top, Doug. I can replicate this one. I think that, I mean,

this overrunner to me has to be tied to Aaron Rogers. And, like, yeah, if he joins the team, then they're going away over. But if he doesn't, which is the most likely scenario, then I think they're going under. They've got good receivers. They've got good running backs.

They've got the weapons around the quarterback. They just don't still have the quarterback. They've got, you know, Teddy Bridgewater, who couldn't really make it work with three really good wide receivers last year at the Carolina Panthers. They've got Drew Locke, who is True Lock. I just can't see him making that third year leap at this point. So, yeah, I'm with Danny as well.

I think that they should have taken Justin Fields. They should have been active in trying to, to find a better quarterback. And they didn't. And now they're stuck with Drew Locke and Teddy Bridgewater. And I see them, you know, finishing under 500 for that reason. Just because I don't know, it's Drewlock and Teddy Bridgewater. That's just not enough, especially in that division.

Agree. I mean, this is a Rogers hedge. That's the only reason you probably bet the over on 8.5. And listen, Denver has talent. And I think that they have, if they had Aaron Rogers, this number would shoot up. and it should, and they'd be a legitimate AFC contender. But that really is the only way for relevance.

Teddy Bridgewater is fine. Drew Locke is Drew Locke, but that's it. That's the Hail Mary. And I think that something we've talked about, the likelihood scenario is there in Rogers Poison in Green Bay in 2021. And who knows about 2022. But for the Broncos in the short term,

I don't see much there. All right. Las Vegas Raiders, six and a half wins. Doug Kide. Wow, I was I was prepared to go under regardless on this one, but six and a half is so low. I guess I'll still go under just because at some point continuity matters. And John Gruden just gives up on everyone so quickly and blew up the offensive line and decided to overpay for a running back. And it's just, I don't know, I think at some point this blows up in their face.

I don't mind Derek Carr as a quarterback, but I'm not sure if he's good enough to overcome. everything else that's going on there. I think this will be a pretty strong division, obviously with the charges in the chiefs, which we'll get to. So I guess I'll go under on this one, but I don't feel great about it. I really don't love the way that they're building

isn't even the right word to use. I don't think they're building this team. They're just reconstructing it every offseason and then hoping that it'll look better the next year. And I just, I don't see that happening this year. No one has ever felt good about anything with the Las Vegas. So feeling good about this pick, don't worry. You're not alone there.

I'm going under as well. I just think there's some real disaster potential. I have no idea what they were doing with some of their moves this year. I just don't. I mean, that could be a whole set of a podcast. Eventually will be a whole set ever podcast, but this is just a joke. Danny Kelly. My first instinct was to like be easy over, but I'm starting to now doubt that a little bit.

I'm looking at their schedule. And they open the season with the Ravens, Steelers, Dolphins, Chargers. and then they also have to play the NFC East, which I think is going to be better than people believe it is going to be. So, I don't know. I think I'm still going to go over because I think they'll probably win seven games, but I don't think this is like necessarily a good team.

It's just going to be one of those middling teams. So I'm going to say over, but I definitely don't feel as confident as my initial sort of reaction was to that. Nora? I'm going over. I'm surprised that you guys, feel this way. Six and a half is low.

This offense is... But that's what bad teams do. They lose less than six and a half games. Can I tell you honest to goodness what I think about this? John Gruden should just coach because he's pretty good at it. He's pretty good at... Or he should just be in the Monday Night Football Booth.

Fine. You know what? That worked out pretty well too. I think he's a good coach. But yes. A lot of players there. He gets... a decent amount out of. And I think the offense is well constructed. I think it's interesting. Derek Carr is never going to light anybody's world on fire, but he's a solid, capable middle of the pack quarterback.

When you're talking about a number that is as low as 6.5, it's too low. You take the over. And I think that we're letting the total chaos that seems to engulf their personnel department seep in more than it should. I say more than it should because obviously when they just dismantle their entire offensive line for not really a reason.

reason, at least a discernible one, you have to consider that. You are forced to. But I just don't, I don't think that, I think the disaster potential is just that they'll always be kind of interesting in one respect and then have a terrible defense and do weird things on the personnel side. I don't think in this year that equates to winning four games or something. I just think, you know, Danny, you said that they might be a middling team. I think there's a chance they're just a bad team.

And I agree with you that if I were to bet anything, it would just be kind of a mediocre team that wins six games. But there's also the chance that things just go south. Doug, as you said, Gruden gives up on people easily. I mean, this is the car Gruden marriage is long as far as Gruden quarterback relationships go. And so. And they will have to make a choice on it at the end of the season, probably. So absolutely.

And so I think that there's, I think they'll probably just be kind of a boring, mediocre team. But there's also some real blowup potential there. And I don't know. I mean, this is, this is, I it was always funny to me two years ago.

The radius went on a mini run and we all had to apologize. I did a whole thing about apologizing to John Gruden for making fun of him so much. And it turns out that there's some real scorpion and the frog stuff with John Gruden man, where it's just like, he's going to be Gruden at all times. And even if he's not Gruden for five weeks,

the Gruden will come out, okay? All right, the Chargers are an interesting team to me. And I can't wait to have discussion. Danny Kelly, 9.5. That just seems high. Doesn't that seem high to you? I do like the Chargers. This is Norris bit.

This is Norris bit. Yeah, I know. I'm stealing it a little bit. I'm stealing a little bit. I don't, I'm going under. I do think that they have a ton of talent, and I like Brandon Staley. But they're the Chargers.

you know what I mean? Like things tend to go wrong in spectacular ways. I think that I don't know. It really, I know I'm stealing your bit, Nora,

but it really just doesn't feel like they're a 10-win team. I could be wrong. It's okay. You can have it. You can borrow it. Yeah, I think they're a nine-win team.

How good is Justin Herbert this year? I think he's going to be good, but he also had like a pretty bad second half the last season. And so I think that we'll probably land somewhere in the middle of where he was at the beginning of the season when he was sort of a revelation,

and then he petered off and wasn't quite as efficient, wasn't quite as explosive, face some tougher defenses. So I would say he's going to be still very good, and I think he's going to end up being one of the top tier quarterbacks, but I'm not necessarily buying,

like they're going to make this massive, huge jump and turn into an elite team. I think, you know, they're a little shallow, I would say, at the skill position groups. Obviously, Echler and Keenan Allen are very good. Mike Williams is a solid number two, but then past that, they're shallow. Like, they don't have any difference-making guys.

You know, they lost their tight-in. Hunter Henry. There are other running backs outside Echler are, you know, just a guy's. And I don't know if the, if Echler goes down for an extended period of time, their running game could really suffer. Same with their offensive, like, same with the receiver group. Like, if any of these guys get hurt, you could see some pretty, like, like, the offense could really drop pretty precipitously. So I don't know. I'm just a little bit worried about that.

I think their defense is going to be solid, really good. And I think we can count on that. But I don't know necessarily what to expect from this offense. Doug. I'm going under as well. I actually kind of like the chargers, but yeah, stealing Norris. But I didn't have just too high, too high, too high. Like the Indians fans.

Like, I was going to say that. The line is too damn high. It's too high. It's just too high. I think that Justin Herbert takes like a, a small step back this season. Like Danny was saying, he regressed a little bit the end of the last season. He really struggled

against a Patriots defense. And they lost a decent amount of guys this season. Hunter Henry, they haven't re-signed Melbourne, Ingram, lost offensive line. So I think that's still a pretty successful season for them if they win nine games.

I don't think that that's necessarily a failure to pick them on the under. I just, I do think the number, it's just too high. I think they're in a group of teams that, and I've said this a few times, the dolphins are in this group. The Jets are probably a year behind this group that you need to circle 2022 for a legitimate competition, like legitimate, like we could make the ASE championship game kind of stuff. But I feel like nine wins probably right here. New coaching staff. I just, I really like Brandon Staley.

I like the talent they have, like the way they fix the outfits of line. This is what they're doing. what Tom Telesco and those guys are doing is exactly what you need to be doing when you have a young quarterback that flashes, which is waste no time at getting everything he needs. So I think that I think they're on the right track. It's just not. We're just a year away. The jets are a year away from being a year away. The Chargers are an actual year away.

I wish I'd gone over here just to spice it up. I too felt that nine and a half was just a little high. But I really, really, really love what the Chargers have done because I do have this. pet theory that there's probably seeped into this conversation where the teams that people tend to be more likely to take the over on and get really hyped up about during the off season, they tend to be really exciting at the skill positions. And then when a team focuses on their lines of scrimmage in the off season, sometimes it can just sort of fly below the radar. I think we'll probably talk about that with Kansas City in a bit too. But I love that as the charges go forward

and try to help Justin Herbert develop and maybe take a second here leap. I mean, in some ways, it seems like if he could just be as good as he was last season, that would be great for them. But I do think they want him to be able to play in a way that that's a little bit more sustainable because a lot of what he was doing last season was just excelling under pressure, like creating these crazy plays. And they would probably like some of the more stable, you know, early down, at or past the sticks, throwing just that bread and butter stuff.

tends to be more easy to replicate, they would probably want to see him do better there, even if it meant that some of the, you know, crazy under pressure throws weren't going quite as well. If that's what a team needs to do, I love that the biggest move that they made this offseason was for a really good center. I think for a young quarterback, that's one of the greatest things that a team can do is to give him someone that's going to take a lot of the mental stuff off his plate and help with protection. And that in general, they focused on their offensive line. if you build in a little bit of chargersy chargersness, nine and a half just feels a bit daunting, particularly in a really,

really, really tough division. But now that I don't want this to be an anti-chargers podcast, because I really like what they've done. So even if nine and a half seems a little bit too high, I like them a lot. Yeah, I generally agree with that. I just want to say something nice. Yeah, no, that's great. That's great.

All right, Kansas Chiefs 12 and a half. Danny Kelly. Yeah, I'm going to say over. I guess. I mean, I think obviously the big question is, you know, what's this offensive eye going to look like with all the new pieces in place? I think, generally speaking, it should be good. I think they've done enough and they have enough depth, especially on the interior offensive line to kind of like make up for the losses there. I think, you know, when you have a guy like Mahomes and Travis Kelsey and Tyree Kill and the continuity and the coaching staff and, you know,

some difference making guys on defense, I don't know. To me, there's no compelling reason to pick the under here. I guess that's where I'm going. Nora? Definitely taking the over here. They won 14 games last season. Their quarterback is Patrick Mahomes. Patrick Mahomes makes very difficult things look rather easy oftentimes.

And I think with what they've done for their offensive line, I mean, we'll see. But the amount that they invested in making that a really strong unit this offseason, I think you can quibble with things like what they spent to get Orlando Brown, but it's still useful to have a good lineman, right? Like once they're in there, you kind of, you can quibble about the cost, but it's still good to have the player. If he is protected in ways that when they were really hit by injuries last season,

he wasn't, it just feels like maybe we don't even know what we're going to be looking at, what we're going to, what we could see from them. I just, I don't see how you could really say that, the under just feels like walking into a trap. Why would you pick that with this deep? It's ridiculous. Yeah, I'm on the same wavelength.

There's just nothing. They retooled. They answered the questions. All you can do in an offseason, it's answered the questions put in front of you. Brett Vich answered all of them. Padrema Holmes is still amazing. I just don't, I don't see them not winning 13 games,

going 13 and 4. That's pretty easy for me, Doug. Yeah, I mean, this almost feels like one where they, forgot there was a 17 game season. Like, do we really think the chiefs are going to lose five games this season? That I don't see that happening in the regular season when Patrick Mahomes is your quarterback.

That being said, this sounds absurd when you're talking about the Kansas State Chiefs. But do they have enough weapons on offense to win a Super Bowl this season? Obviously, they've got Travis Kelsey and they've got Terry Kill and they've got

Clyde Edwards-Layer, but who is their number two? even wide receiver this season. Is it McCull Hardman? They're hoping that McCle Hardman is going to take that next step this season. I think their wide receiver core beyond Tyre Kill is pretty ugly right now. Right? Yeah.

I would say that's fair. Yeah. I think that is probably like the biggest question. I wonder if they will try and pick up a guy or two like at cut downs and try and like improve the depth there. But like going into the season with McColl Hardman. as like the de facto number two, I guess. And he's been very hit or missed since being drafted in the second round.

DeMarcus Robinson, Byron Pringle. Apparently, Cornell Powell's fifth round rookie has been playing all right. But yeah, I mean, the point remains like they, if, if Tyree Kill goes down, it's going to be the Travis Kelsey show. So that is, I guess, the concern is like the lack of depth at the receiver position. So maybe they'll, I'm wondering if they'll add anybody before it all, before it's all said and then. All right.

So that's it. That's the overrunners. We'll be back next week with NFC. Doug will still be in a Taco Bell parking lot, from what I understand. We'll see how it goes. Perpetually at Taco Bell Park lot. Thank you for listening. Next on this feed is Flying Coach with Peter Schrager and Sean McVeigh and a special guest.

Thank you, Isaiah Blakely and Arjuna Ramkepaw for the production of this episode. It's been the Ringer NFL show on the Ringer Podcast Network.