The Ringer NFL Show - Predicting Division Winners, Wild-Card Teams, and a Super Bowl Champion

Episode Date: September 6, 2021

Kevin and Nora are joined by Benjamin Solak to predict division winners, wild-card teams, and a Super Bowl champion. Hosts: Kevin Clark and Nora Princiotti Guest: Benjamin Solak Production assistant: Isaiah Blakely Additional production supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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It is the ring of NFL show, part of the Ringer Podcast Network. I am Kevin Clark joined today after a glorious Labor Day weekend, full of fun for us all. Ben Solac, how you doing, buddy? I'm good. I'm officially moved in, baby. All right. And Nora Principia also officially moved in.

Pretty exciting. Pretty exciting stuff. Feeling settled. We're recording this on Thursday. Oh, then I'm not officially moved in. I wasn't sure if we were keeping the timeline accurate or not. That was just playing into the line. I was mad and are you spending, are you spending your holiday weekend moving?

Yeah. It was the best weekend for us to do it. How Midwestern of you? Just get rolling up your sleeves and getting stuff done. It was this or the first week of the, the NFL season, which, to be honest, one is more a holiday to me than the other, and it's not Labor Day. So, yeah.

Yeah, I support that. I have a regret about my move, which is that I didn't take a week off of work. I wish I'd used literally five vacation days just to move. I want to, I want to throw this out there. I'm 2% offended. You didn't ask me to help you move, which I would have said no. Like, I just wanted to be invited to help you move and then not do it. To decline, of course.

Yeah. I do not ask people to help me move. I thought about it. I was like, do I wish Nora had asked me? And then I would have been like, I would, but you know. And I would have had to finish that sentence. But it was just a thought. I like barely asked my parents to help me move.

I just think moving is like, I've moved. Yes, thank you, producer Arjuna Slack says that Spotify gives you a moving day. I did use it, but I wish that I'd fine. I wish I'd taken four vacation days and used my Spotify. approved moving day to move because it takes a week of your life. It just takes it. That is the amount of time that it takes. No, I'm, I'm anti asking people to help you move. Uh, I get that. I understand that. Um, so as we said, so we're recording this on Thursday, Labor Day weekend has come and gone by the time you listen to it. Miami has upset Alabama. Um, it's been great. Keep manifesting,

baby. I love it. Keep manifesting. You're all moved in. Miami beat Alabama. When you started this, I thought that we were going to have to keep up an elaborate lie. for the entire podcast that we were several days in the future. Well, elaborate lies are what we're all about here at the NFL show. So let's get to it. So the first part of this episode ran on Thursday. It was Ruiz, Nora, and I talking about the individual predictions for the NFL season, MVP, defensive rookie of the year, the whole deal, executive of the year.

It was very exciting. Ben still like very quickly. Kevin said that Matthew Stafford has been playing MVP-level football for several years now. That's not what I said. That's exactly what you said. This prediction presupposes that he has, has played at a level that would win him an MVP award if he was in the exact right situation.

A lot of conditions on that one. Yeah, you better believe it. For a take like that, you got to throw one. I love it. For a take like that, you've got to throw in all the protections you've got to lack. Escape patches everywhere. Who's your MVP choice? I had, I believe, my home's down as my prediction,

just because it's super chalky. but it makes sense. It's very funny. Like he's only won one MVP, which feels like too few. But he's also only started three years. So it's not too few, but also he's that good.

So I think that like if he has an MVP caliber season, it won't feel redundant. It won't feel stale. And that's always important to voters is that it like feels like it makes sense. And so yeah, I have a homes down. And the expectations get harder.

I mean, we were talking about that with Ruiz and Lamar where he predicted Lamar. And I'm just sitting here thinking like, I think he was so good in 2019. he set this expectation for himself that he could be playing at an MVP level and that's we still wouldn't have the voting momentum I guess you could say but that's neither her nor there what we're doing in this second part here is the team predictions team by team divisions wild card uh playoff predictions conference championship final four and

super bowl at the end of it why don't we start with the afc east nor prunciani all right so i want to just get on record here and say Here come the escape hatches, Ben. Here it comes. No, no, no, no, no, no. This is just a statement about my brain being bad. The 17th game is still throwing me because I have the Buffalo Bills here. And we will get to this later, but I also have pretty high expectations at this point for the New England Patriots.

And so I have worked myself into a place for where for all of my logic to hold, the bills need to win like 13. games and that doesn't feel right. But I still think they're the best team in the division. I'm picking them. I think even with a little bit of, you know, room for regression from Josh Allen, they still, they're the most balanced.

They've got the most consistency. And I do think that the Patriots, regardless of my sort of high hopes for them, I do think that there will be the occasional, you know, rookie stumble since they're going with Mac Jones. I think it's going to be Buffalo. And so like any any disagreements there. Yeah, I have Buffalo as well.

And I have Buffalo winning 13 games. For me, it's right. Whenever you're a really good team, it's always very easy. And they'll be 15 and 2. But we always know that things happen, whether it's injuries or like, you know, give up games in the middle of the season. You're looking forward to your biweek, whatever. One of my favorite things about Sean McDermott is how tight of a ship he runs and how

really well coached that team is. They're not the sort of team that loses silly games for no reason. I do think, however, the strength of that division hurts them. Nor to mention New England. I have Miami up there above New England. I have high expectations for the dolphins this year. And Brian Flores is the same way. They're 0 and four against the bills in the last two years the dolphins are.

And I think that that really gets his goat a little bit. They've given up some really big basing games to them. And I think that he knows that's the team. He has to find out how to beat if he's going to be able to make the playoffs for us in Miami. And so I think Miami will play them tight. I think New England will play them tight. So I think the division will knock their record down a couple. but when it comes to out of division games

and preparing for on the road opponents and whatever, Buffalo is one of those teams that you trust. So I have them as the AFC's champion and as a 13 win team. I generally agree with that, Ben. I'm closer to the 13 win thing than maybe others. I agree with you. They did not drop games with the exception of Arizona.

There are two losses last year were to Tennessee and Kansas City, both totally excusable. And I would also say that not dropping random games last year, and again, the Hill Mary thing is in a separate bucket. But last year was the easiest year to drop random games. Like it was so freaking easy. The practice schedules were interrupted.

I mean, it just, it was pure chaos for every day, every day, truly. When I talk to teams, whether that's in Buffalo or elsewhere, pure chaos all the time. So the fact that he kept them on the right, McDermott, as you said, kept them on the rails during a season where that was really hard, says to me in a season where things will be more normal that this is a good team. And I don't expect, we've talked about the Josh Allen thing. I want to ask you, Soak, if there is regression, how good does he still need to be for 13 wins? I think he can, right, I think he can take, like, a significant step backward and they still win 13 games. I kind of talked about this a few episodes ago.

I can't recall the subject, but it was even if he steps back a lot, I don't think that offense as a whole steps back a lot. So I think the offensive line has tons of continuity, talented players. I think the receiving core is deep enough. And obviously, they pass the ball tons. They do a lot of, like, the correct things to do if you're going to have a success. offensive. Also, an Allen's step back doesn't mean less good plays or his best plays are worse. It just means more bad plays. And so that's where you get maybe the dumb drops,

right? They play Washington in week three. It's a really good defense. If Alan is just like going full flame throw throws a couple picks, you know, takes a bunch of unnecessary sacks. It's a really good defensive line. That's the sort of silly game they could lose. But I always like backing teams who can just win shootouts when they're on. And that's the thing about Buffalo is that there's no team that can just simply outscore Buffalo if the offense is clicking. And even if Alan gets a little bit more volatile, you can always

bank on him having some of those games like he had against San Francisco where it's like, all right, literally nobody is stopping this guy in this offense. All right, I agree. We're all three for three. It's Buffalo. AFC North. Big call, Nora. Big call. So I've spent the last

three hours thinking about this because I've gone back and forth. And what's funny to me is, is instructive is that this time last year, the topic that was exactly like this was the NFC East and the debate was between the Eagles and the Cowboys. And I was going back and forth over and over, Eagles Cowboys, who's going to win the 2020 NFC East? And they were both a tire fire. And so it's always funny when you have these sort of coin flips and oftentimes it doesn't even end up mattering. But I, this is the one I've been sweating over. Nora, you have the floor.

Well, I revealed my pick on the last show where you were sort of leaning but weren't quite sure where you were. And I'm really curious to see where that landed after three hours of stewing. But I'm going with the Browns here. I think they have one of the most complete rosters in the game. I think I'm betting a little bit on Baker looking in that offense similar to the way he looked in the last half of the season last year. but even if it's not quite that,

I think what they've done on defense over the past off season puts them in position where he doesn't quite need to win them games. They're going to be so balanced that I just think if this team weren't the Browns, because as much as they've improved in terms of kind of trustworthiness over the last few years, I think there is still this tendency to be like, and part of it's the history of the team, part of it's also Baker, just go like, eh, yeah, Cleveland. But I think if this were like a blind taste test,

we would look at this and go, this is just an incredible roster. This is a Super Bowl contending roster. And I'm just going for it. Fortune favors the brave Nora. Ben Solac, AFC North. Yeah, no, I love the roster. But as I've talked about, right,

I always like to see it before I believe in it, especially when there's so much newness. I was just writing about Clowny and what he means to that defense. And you just look at it. It's one playoff game last year, Ben Solac. They did. You erase that. Once again, in a game where the Pittsburgh Steelers simply forgot the rules for the sport of football,

which was awesome. It was great. I made my younger brother put his first ever sports bet in on that game, and he hit like a 600-1 parlay on that game. It was one of the best viewing experiences of my life. How old is he? He's 19. Now.

Okay. Well, obviously, we did it through a, you know, obviously state where a fandle sports book is legal and went to a fendul sports book. We handled it that way. It's great. Yeah, it was delightful. My thing with the Browns also is this. In terms of teams that I expect to be in the playoffs on their schedule,

they have the Ravens, obviously, they split them home and away. But they also have the chiefs, the Chargers, the Patriots, and the Packers. All four of those games are on the road. They play their toughest parts of the schedule away from home. And so it's one thing to be a good team. It's another thing to be a good team that travels, especially when a young team travels. There's habits that you want to set up in preparation and kind of that big boy

veteran presence. They certainly have some of those guys, but it's a week-longer season. They're going to be on the road against some of their toughest opponents. I think that they don't catch as many wins in the regular season. I think they're a very good team, but I don't think they beat Baltimore. So I have the Ravens at the top of the division. And it's because even if you look at the Ravens roster, and it doesn't seem as strong as the Browns, there's that proven success with a head coach,

with the defensive coordinator who hasn't left despite multiple years of success, with a quarterback who's played at MVP levels. They've gone to the playoffs in three consecutive seasons now. that's the sort of consistency that I want to believe in. And I think that the Ravens are going to be able to edge the Browns out in the division accordingly. How much does the Dobbins injury or how much did that sort of change your outlook for them? It certainly does. And I talked about my concerns with the Ravens being fit in offense in general, both Rashad Bateman and Miles Boykin, I want to say went on IR recently this week.

So early in the season, like I do not expect them to hang with Kansas City week too. Like I think it's going to be tough getting that plane off the ground a little bit. but I have faith in them having always employed a committee backfield to find answers even without Dobbins there. And I do like Gus Edwards for what he is. And so it gives me pause because they're thinner, but I still think when they put their best 11 out there, they're going to be able to run the football on anybody. Okay.

I'm going to go, I'm going to go Browns. These are two really good teams. I think that what swung it to me was this offseason, Andrew Barry, and I think Eric Takost is the top five general manager in this league. top 10. But what swung it to me was that it is clear to me that Andrew Barry is going to fill the gaps that are needed to be filled. And whether that's in the secondary, whether that's something as simple as obviously, you know, Grant Delper was out for all last year, but he's coming back healthy.

But then going out and signing what might have been the best slot cornerback in the NFL, making the draft picks they needed to make back there, someone like Greg Newsom playing cornerback. I think that, you know, Troy Hill was a great value signing. I think that everything that they did solve their problems. I think they're going to be better this year because of it. Baker Mayfield is not as good a quarterback as Lamar Jackson. I don't think it's particularly close. But I think over 17 games, that roster is so talented that.

And I think that they're both going to mean the kind of the 13, 14 win kind of thing. It's going to come down to a half football or a quarter of football or a couple of drops. But if I had to guess right now, I'm going Cleveland. And I think, Ben, I know this sounds crazy. You said the success over the past three years that they've had and the coaching stability and the, just the program that they run there. And I'm probably going to regret saying this, but I'm going to say it anyway. Good.

I think that Kevin Stefansky and Andrew Berry are building a program that gives them that sort of stability. And I would never have said that. and whether that, I mean, certainly in the damn Mike Holmgrenier is where they're panic drafting Kendall Wright or whatever. Like, no, like that stuff was ridiculous. And I wouldn't have said it until this summer. But I really do think that the type of stability we talk about with non-Browns teams,

where the Browns were the example of how not to build a team, I think they've swung in the exact opposite category. And they are now, and maybe we haven't noticed it yet because it's only been one year of success. They are now a stable franchise along with some of the other model franchises. And I think that that's something that we can't just say, oh, it's the Browns. They'll catch on fire at some point. And it'll all burn down. Like, no, I actually think Stefanski and Barry are, have built the foundations. For the first time since they, they, they returned to the league 22 years ago. They have foundations. Yeah. I, uh, I very much want the Browns to be that. I think it would be so delightfully fun if they were, right? If we could count

the Browns was one of the sharp teams in the league. Like, that'd be new and awesome and sick. I do think that they have a chance for that stability. They struggled against playoff teams in the regular season last year. They obviously got the win over the Steelers and then the loss of the Chiefs. I do think that that playoff experience is helpful for them, but they did struggle to beat playoff teams in the regular season last year. And so you do want to see them punch at that weight first.

That's what I think is I want them to be there very, very, very much. And once they are there this fall, I'll get right on the train in October. and I'll be very glad to be one of the last people on the train. But for right now, I'm just a little bit nervous. All right. Not allowed to debate on the next one. AFC West, Nora. The Kansas City Chiefs.

Hmm. Then? Yeah, Kansas City first seat in the AFC. Going to be really doggone good. Patrick Wilhelms MVP. Go birds. Okay. I'm in agreement three for three.

I do want to spend a little more time on this, just not to short change this. Two-point question, Nora. Number one, who's number two, and how close is it? So who's number two? the Chargers. Yeah. I'm going big on the Chargers.

How close is it? Geez, in record, I don't know, let's call it two games or something. You are struggling so much with the 17 game thing, aren't you? I hate it. I hate math. It's the worst thing that's ever happening. I can see the wheels turning in your head.

You're just like, well, maybe 11 and 5. Oh, shit, that's not what it is. Yeah. It was literally, like, every day this off season, it is the nightmare where you go to school without your, pants on. Like, just that is what the 17th game does to me. To put it in terms that are easier for me to understand, I think there's a moment during

the season where we're kind of like, ooh, could they? Could they? And they couldn't. By the end of the season, it's like, okay, we know this is not. We're not in week 18 going like, who's it going to be? Yeah. But I do think that there's going to be a moment where we're kind of like, could they challenge the chiefs for?

that division and the answer ends up being no, but it's, it's not without a sliver of entry. I, uh, our friend Mike Lombardi had a nugget today that, that Andy Reid has won 16 straight September games. Yeah. Out of, out of the off season and out of the buy. Andy was time to prepare. Well, it's funny because the Browns, the Browns are their week one. But here's, here's the chief schedule. Brown's week one, Ravens week two, charges week three. That's spicy. So that to me, we're going to find out within three weeks, number one. Like, I think even if they started out one and two here, I think nobody would abandon ship. Okay.

We would have to see what it looked like or unless somebody got hurt or whatever. But I think by that first Chargers game, I think we're going to at least have an idea of whether or not. I think the Chiefs are going to win so many games, Nora, that we're going to have an idea by then if it's going to be close. Like even if the Chargers kind of eke out a 10 win, 11 win season, whatever it is, like I think the Chiefs are on the 1415 game path and the Chargers are going to establish that pretty quickly. Can I ask you guys a question about the thing that I think is sort of like the interesting variance thing with Kansas City that I'm trying to wrap my brain around is so their

offensive line. Nobody is a holdover who was in the same position, same team, same everything. last season. It is obviously more talented. It is obviously, like, stalked with better players. And I think it's such a fascinating thing to wonder, okay, if all of those guys gel and they do it quickly, I don't think we quite understand how scary that is, right?

Because it's not that they were terrible last season, but that's a real upgrade on paper. The only thing is offensive line play, like continuity matters, knowing the person next to you matters. And how that goes, I think it can, it has more potential to change the trajectory of the chiefs in either direction than kind of meets the eye. Do you think there's anything? I mean, Ben, what do you think? Anything there? Or am I just pontificating?

No, absolutely. When we talked about Kevin's conversation with Mahomes and how Mahomes is trying to get rid of the ball quicker, right? Even when, like, I ranked the chief's roster outside of the top five, a lot of it was because offensive line changed. changes on paper look great. And then in practice, usually that's a learning curve. Usually that's an onboarding process. Offensive line play is very unique in the league in terms of,

instead of wanting to have elite players, you want to have continuity and no cellar dwelling players. You want to have no liabilities, right? Because defense will pinpoint that weakness and hammer it. It's not like wide receiver where if your second wide out goes down with injury, your first wide out is still winning again. man coverage. In the event that your left guard goes down, your left tackle still is a lead, but his job just got a lot harder. He's not going to have the same impact on past protection.

So the chiefs have added talent. Like you said, on paper, it is definitely better. However, it may not operate well in past protection as good as those talents would indicate early. It's probably going to take a little bit of time. They're also changing the way they run the football a little bit. We expect a lot more gap power out of them because of the bodies they've added in what we've seen in camp. That takes time. And so, yeah, I think that early. early slate, right? Cleveland, Baltimore, Los Angeles, as Kevin said, right, we could see a Chief's offense that looks a little scary. I mean, week two against the Chargers last year, they won that game in overtime. I want to say 20 to 13 or 23 to 20. It's because Joey Bosa,

Melvin Ingram lived back there. I mean, this is a tough thing to get off the ground in September. And so, yeah, I do think the Chief's offensive line will look like a concerning point in the first month of the season. It's if it gets better, if it gels, if that that continuity comes through by week 16 that we care about. Because the Chief's going to be in the playoffs anyway. So how well are we playing come December is what's important for that offensive line. Well, and I want to be clear about my point here

is that I think as much as that is potentially the case and probably will be, there's also the potential of that whether it happens in the first month of the season or not, they really gel and it is a talent upgrade. If that starts making its way onto the field where they have enough understanding of how to play, you know, five down the line,

and all of a sudden Mahomes has more time and better protection than he's had over the course of his career. There's a version of that that's really freaking terrifying for everybody else. So I think as much as we should be open to the possibility that it'll be a little rocky at the start, we should be open to the possibility that we didn't really realize this team could get all that much better and maybe it could. Hey, Ben, I have a question. So here are the odds. Here are the odds for the AFC West. Chiefs minus 250, not a surprise.

Chargers plus 450, Broncos plus 600, Raiders plus 2,200. Wow. Help. Am I thinking about crazy and thinking, I don't think the Raiders are, I don't think the Broncos are the Raiders have a chance. Whatever you're about to say, the answer is yes, you are crazy.

The gap between the Broncos and the Raiders is too big, right? It is. But also, there's a difference between, oh, this line isn't where it should be, and oh, this line is a good line to take, right? Right. The Raiders, I think, have a better chance than those. odds imply, which they're obviously division title odds, but the Raiders have a better chance than those odds imply to be third in the division. With that said, they are the last team I would

bet to win the division and the odds of price appropriately. I agree that. I just, maybe the Broncos price is the one that's out of whack. Can I tell you something about the Broncos? Yeah, I like, you keep asking, you keep asking permission to do things on the podcast. Just do it. Just give us the Broncos take. The Denver Broncos have a defense. Yeah. The Raiders have an offense. They don't have a quarterback. The Raiders have an offense. That they do. 40 points against the Chiefs won that game. And Mark Davis has a home that looks like a practice facility.

I don't know if you saw that. Yes. Just took the scraps from Allegiance Stadium and built a house. It's really unattractive. It's not good. I got to be honest, Matthew Stafford also, I think maybe they sold it, but their house in Michigan, also a giant house that I find really unattractive. That one is more giant and more unattractive.

That's where I'm moving into this weekend. no one. Oh my gosh, no wonder you needed the whole weekend. Yeah, there you go. I'm sorry I called your future house ugly. Wow.

All right. So that's some good AFC West talk. We've established that Ben is not going to bet the Raiders for third in the division. Can you even do that? Yeah, you can. There are books that are for you like, who's going to take like third.

And it's just, it's all honey traps. You can kind of bet whatever you want, right? Yep. Which is bad news for me. That's not great. That's not what we want. We announced the ringer gambling show on Twitter today,

which, by the way, subscribed ringer gambling show. I'm on on Wednesdays. And my mom just texted me and said, Benjamin, a gambling show, question mark, exclamation, for a question mark, exclamation point. So she's really worried about this.

Oh, that's the best thing I've ever heard. Yeah, wow. Shout out Ben's mom. I love a mom who's looking out. Yep, always. And follows me on Twitter. I appreciate. Damn.

All right. AFC South. Good Lord. Just so everybody knows here. I'll get through the odds just so everybody has them just to know what the conventional wisdom is on this. Titans minus 115, Colts plus 150, Jaguars plus 650, Texans plus 3,000. Nora. I mean, I took the Titans because like it seems like no one's going to be able to play for the Colts.

And I don't think anybody else is going to win a lot of games. So I don't know, man. Can we, I wish we could, I wish we could not. Can I pass? On a predict, I know, just, just talking about this division? I mean, look, I took the Titans, but, ugh. That's a good point. Ben, you want to pull us out of the tailspin, buddy?

Yeah, I got the Colts. And certainly, right, the Colts, the Colts injury situation is something to, to be aware of and it is concerning. I've talked about how I think that coaching staff can can get the job done as they deal with some of those absences, especially those that they're able to see far out. My main concern is Titans Regression, which may sound exactly like everything Titans fans heard last summer, where the concern was Titans Regression. Obviously, they took a step forward. We thought Derek Henry couldn't sustain his quality of play at that volume. He took on more volume. It was even more effective. We thought Ryan Tana Hill was not the third best quarterback in the

league via EPA per play. Turns out he still is. You know what I mean? They were able to do everything again, they were able to repeat it, which is sick. And then Arthur Smith left. And nobody, you know, Tannehill and Henry weren't doing what they're doing now until Arthur Smith took over that offense. And now Arthur Smith has left. And so there's a doubt creeping in

in terms of if that offense can be the same, if they can have the same efficiency with those intermediate deep play action shots. You lose a player like John Newsmith and play like Corey Davis, both whom were integral to the running game. They're probably going to play with less big surfaces, less 22 personnel, three tight ends.

And that's where Henry is really successful. So that running game is probably going to change character a little bit. They bring in Julio Jones, which is tremendous. But the depth that past catcher behind that is really concerning. Last year, they started out 5 and 0 and then went 6 and 6 down the stretch. They were 7 and 2 in close games, both of which are signs that a team is facing record regression, even if they stay generally as efficient. And then they tried to do a lot to improve on defense.

And I know that Titans fans are really gung-ho about their moves. To me, switching out Adori Jackson and Malcolm Butler for Janoris Jenkins and Caleb Farley isn't a huge improvement, if an improvement at all. And I like Bud Dupree. I do not like $18 million. He's my feature rush or Bud Dupree. To me, that's a little bit too much dip on his chip. And so for all these reasons, I just think the Titans are going to drop a game or two.

So I think that the Titans are going to drop a game or two, but I think that doesn't matter. Yeah. Like, I just don't know. I think everybody else in this division is going to drop a gamer 10. A season. They're going to drop a season or two. A whole season. I have the Colts winning nine games

and the Titans winning eight games so this is very much so last year's NFC East. Okay. I don't want to do this, but I'm going to do it. This entire podcast has been an exercise and regret for Kevin. I, buddy, you have no idea.

No, the I, I, I, so the Titans are going to win like nine games and they're going to be fine. And if they regress and they will in some area, no one is going to make them pay for it. No one. And the Colts in theory have this, but I'm just done counting on

whence. Darius Leonard gave a press conference today where he said he's just trying to wait for more information before he gets vaccinated. Ryan Kelly was on the list last week. And, you know, there are players who have obviously been vaccinated who have had to miss time as well throughout camps and all that stuff. And I understand that. But at some point, you know, Baker, field said this three months ago. He said being vaccinated is a competitive advantage. And to me, I think you're going to see that more and more and more. And that goes with everybody cross-leaf. There's not a Colts take. This is just if you have a bunch of unvaccinated guys, you know, they miss five days at a time. That's important. That matters. And I don't think, I think we

talked the other day about whether or not the Colts have the depth to sort of go through, you know, separately the T. W.A. Hilton injury, like all of this stuff, all the hits that they've been taking, um, Quentin Nelson's 5-12 week injury. Carson Wentz, who's obviously going to be at least a little bit hobbled, do they have the depth to overcome it? And I think the answer is they have the depth to be okay this year. But I don't think they have the depth to win 10 games as the hits keep coming. Um, so that's, that's my take on this.

Um, another, is, Jaguars plus 650 seems, I feel like that, that line should be more enticing than plus 650. Am I wrong, Solac? No, no reason. in the Jags, no reason I have faith in the Texans. I have them both winning two games, and I think it's like against each other or something. Oh, Norris, oh my God, Norris coming through. Norris coming, jumping through the Zoom.

You think the Jags are going to win two games, two games? I've lost so much faith in the Jags, man. Look, it's a little bleak down there. I'll give you that. But we have a generational quarterback prospect who looks pretty good. Can we talk about what the Jags did with their number one waiver priority after cuts? Here's what they signed. Here's who they signed.

Tyron Johnson. You have the number one waiver priority. They signed one player after Kites. That's unheard of. Do you think Urban knows how it works, though? It's different from college. I think he just knows the names of the guys in the building. It doesn't want to learn anybody else's name.

Oh, it's going to be bad. It's going to be really bad. So, yeah, two games. I think Trevor Lawrence alone should be worth more than two games when you play the Texans twice. All right. I will give them a third game. they just beat the Texans.

Congratulations. Are the Texans and the Jaguars playing on a Thursday night? No. But spiritually they are. There is a really, oh, it's Houston, Carolina, week three Thursday night.

That's the third Thursday night game. Should we go? Where is the game? Should we all go? I have like a live show. It's in Houston. Should we go? Just a new low.

in the live show experience. I mean, we could try to outdraw it. This is rude. I love it. All right. I don't want to talk about the Panthers and the Texans playing anymore. This is upsetting. All right.

We did all four AFC divisions. Shall we do the AFC wildcard teams, Nora Pinciotti? Exciting. Let's do it. All right. So I've already hinted two of mine. But I have the Chargers, the Ravens, and the Patriots. I do too.

Hey. Ben, muck it up. Muck it up for us. So I have the, let's fight. I have the Browns instead of the Ravens simply because of the division win.

I have the Chargers as well. And then I have the dolphins making it over the Patriots. Yeah. Let's ride. Let's do this. Yeah. I have a lot. I just have a lot of faith in what the dolphins are putting together.

I do think the Patriots are going to turn around. I think they're going to bounce back quickly. And I do think that Mack Jones is a pro. I think that he's the sort of guy that can step in and be successful executing the offense early. He's that sort of. rookie. I believe it was Nora, you had the piece where they talked about how they're not giving him the full playbook and they're going to bring him in and everything like that. I just think that

that, all of that there is going to be great, but you can only get a rookie steady so far. You can only get him so steady. And I do think that you're going to be inviting some of that ups and downs with Jones that I think Tua should be able to endure and iron out of his game a little better because he did get the starting experience last year, which was a large part of why they kind of push to get him out there is because you want to start to see it and you want to have him get his sea legs under him. So I think they're building a really good offense under two. I love what I've seen in terms of what they're doing schematically in the preseason. I do like their collaborative approach.

It's a little bit unorthodox. And I think it could go left easily because it's hard to assign blame. But they seem to be building out a really nice offense for two a skill set. Obviously, Kevin, when you me and Stephen had the pod and we all were just like, hey, bad to a preseason game. Like, that's what it's supposed to look like. Like, it is noticeable what they're doing. Throw in the fact that I just think that defense is a thrashing machine.

and I think the Patriots defense can be and should be as well, but the Dolphins showed us it last year. And then mostly retains talent and added at a couple spots as well. Rookie Jalen Phillips comes along on the edge. To me, they're deep and they're steady at all three levels. And so I have the Dolphins as a double-digit win team. They were very close to the wild card last year. They just need a couple more wins early in the season to get there,

and I think they do. How do you think their defense changes that they don't, just how their defense fares changes that they don't have the type of interception look that they had? Because I think they're always going to be a defense. that gets a number of picks. It's just that that's not the most stable thing. And I worry that if they hadn't been first in the league in that last year,

we might think, okay, this is a good, this is an emerging defense. I don't know that we would have quite the same idea of, oh, these guys shut people down. No, 100%, right? And that turnover's lie really easily because they often swing records as a one-off plays. They're very high eight-day plays in that way. I think that, yeah, if they're not getting picks or getting fast breakups,

that's the sort of player that Zabian Howard is. and Byron Jones, the opposite side is the sort of player who discourages targets. They have a really nice synergy there. When we talked about the Howard extension, we talked about how Howard calls himself the best corner on the dolphins, inappropriately so because of the numbers, but also Byron fits him like a glove, because Byron doesn't let you throw to that receiver, and now you've got a funnel target for Zavian. So I do think, yeah, interception numbers go down, but Zavon has always been a play on the ball corner. And so I think he's proven consistent ball production, even if it's not 10 INTs,

defense player of the year level and whatnot. And I do think also their pass rush is going to get better. Emmanuel Agwell played nicely last year, and that was a good sign. I think he'll keep doing that in that way. But they wanted a lot of Kyle Benoit, didn't get it. This year, the ad jail of Phillips. And to me, Phillips is the fulcrum. He's kind of the key for that defense, the X factor.

And his stock fell such that they could draft him because of some medical concerns and how he handled himself in college. But he has had a pro ready body for years and has had a pro ready game for years. So if he's got his head on straight, and that's what Brian Flores does well, in my opinion. To me, he's an eight-sack-a-year rookie, and that's exactly what that defense needs. So Phillips is an important player for them. Do the Cam Newton-McJones thing matter at all in your prediction of the AFCEs, Phila? I wouldn't say too much. As we talked about after that, that decision, or excuse me, as I wrote about it for that decision was made. To me, like, both played well,

and both could have gone out there and been successful. We talked about this in the green room a little bit, Nora. I view the Patriots as a team that's going to beat the bad teams, is going to have some good game plans against the good teams that generally struggle to stay with the top offenses, and that would have been true with Cam or with Mac. So to me, they're, you know, I have them as a 10-win team. I have the Dolphins with 11, so there's one win above them. And that could easily go another way if the dolphins drop one against the bills or drop one against Patriots or whatever. But to me, I give the dolphins the slight edge, just because I do think they have a little bit more offensive firepower. NFC East.

no no need Ben just said no Ben declines to participate this is like when I said pass such an ugly division I'm going with the Washington Fitzmagics

here that defense is just nasty and you know what I like fits here I like fits with some talent at the skill positions and the chance to you know really not the long term starter but be the starter

Don't like embrace it. If that's what you want, you got it. Go get it. I think we're going to have a great fits year. Cowboys are plus 150. They're the favorite. Football team right behind them a plus 200. There's a big gap there.

Then the Giants are plus 400. Eagles are plus 500. So no real plus 3,000 type of team just because of how winnable this division is. And there's a route. Like I briefly considered just saying screw it, the Giants are going to win. And I decided not not to do that. I'm going football team as well. The Cowboys have the most talent here.

They should win. But the, as is the case in New York City this summer, nor the vibes are off. The vibes are off there. Ben Sholak. Yeah, I have Washington as well. Strong endorsement vibes are off in Dallas. Just no trust in that defense. Very much would like to see it eight weeks of the season before I believe it.

And yeah, I would have kind of been with you on the Giants thing, describing their defense is going to be awesome until I saw just in general how their offense has performed this offseason. And I just can't, can't hitch my wagon of that. So I do think that Washington wins an ugly division by beating up the bad teams with what should be just a loaded defense stem to stern. So another fun playoff appearance for Washington. Back to back, baby. Let's do it. Also, I believe that every offensive skill position player on the Giants is hurt or recovering

from some kind of injury. I think the total is all of them. so that's not great. Hey, what's going to happen to the giants? Like, I know that's a big philosophical question, but like, it's just like Joe Judge, let's say they have a disaster of a season. I think it's a little early to pull the plug on Joe, Judge.

Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe a GM would want to cut bait. Do they just do a shotgun marriage of a new GM? And he figures out what to do with Daniel Jones. I mean, Daniel Jones was drafted in 2019. this would be his third year. Like I just, I think that they're all, I think quarterback coach and GM

are all different parts of their cycle to where I'm a little bit confused to where they go from here. Yeah, so there have been 16 quarterbacks with losing records through their first three seasons after they were drafted in the first round. And I think Daniel Jones would have to go like 14 and three this year to not have a losing record.

So we're going to agree that he has a losing record through three years. It is agreed. Yeah. Over half of those GMs who picked those players got fired after two years. Gellman has already survived two years. After three years, it's like the Dave Caldwell, Doug Whaley, John Elway list.

Where like, Caldwell stayed in the front office, but Coughlin basically replaced him. Whaley, like, wasn't even really in charge of the E.J. manual pick. He got replaced. Elway took Locke after taking Paxton Lynch to, like, try to cover his bases. And then he also, like, kind of sort of got ousted from making decisions. GMs don't survive, taking first round quarterbacks and then losing games, unless their name is the Rick Spielman,

which I don't know why Rick Spielman. Gilman gets to do that, but he does. There's very little. And Gelleman, like, he, when, after he drafted Jones, he gave a quote to Peter King where he was like, talk to me in three years, see if everybody thinks I'm crazy then. Nobody liked the pick. This is the end of your three, David. And it's just not going well on offense.

And so I don't see how Gettleman survives the end of the season. I do give him credit for their draft being a let's support Daniel Jones draft instead of like, because right, I mean, obviously you have to get organizational and ownership buy-in, but they could have scrapped it. And that's the type of thing where you do sometimes see, you know, whether it's a general manager or coach, like buy an extra year. He absolutely did not do that in this draft. And I do think, like, I know Dave Gettleman has been memed into a fine pulp, but he deserves some degree of credit for that, even if the moves don't work out. Right.

The eggs are in the basket now, right? Put over shut up time. I will say, I do wish they had a little bit better of a plan at tackle besides, like, let's be. not tell Andrew Thomas to do anything different. Like Thomas is making the exact same mistakes he made last year. Right. Which weren't even mistakes he made at Georgia. So their tackle offensive line plan to me is generally inexplicable.

But offensive weapons wise, yeah, I agree. They're doing the right things. Andrew Thomas is just an abysmally bad draft pick. Gettleman won't stop getting got by Georgia players. Lorenzo Carter, D'Andre Baker, Andrew Thomas. He keeps drafting him. He just hasn't figured out that Georgia's like either not telling him the truth or he's got to look somewhere else.

But hopefully his easel's a lot already good because I liked him. Here are some players who are working back from injury for them and are still like a little up in the air. Sequin Barclay, Kenny Golodey, Sterling Shepard, Cadarius Tony,

Kyle Rudolph. Evan Ingram's banged up too. Yeah. So the whole, it's just so imagine the whole team and then that's it. NFC North. Packers minus 16. not a surprise, they are the favorite. Vikings plus 250, bears plus 550, lions to fight in Dan

Campbell's plus 2,800, Nora. I picked the Packers, which I think is pretty obvious. Should we just scrap this and you tell us like your favorite thing about Dan Campbell? I think Dan Campbell was moved to the point of tears when talking about the collapse of the housing bubble and the auto industry in Detroit in 2008. He was not actively crying, but there was a, I said this in the story, he got emotional, but it was like a throat clearing that was not consistent with something being in your throat that's like water is what I would say to that. He's, I enjoyed my 40 minutes in Dan Campbell's office. You can read about it on the burner.com. Just an authentic dude. I can make no proclamations of whether or not that's going to work.

Well, the only proclamation I could make is that I think a lot of being a successful head coach is being yourself and that proclamation I could make. Dan Campbell is authentically himself. He's not trying to be any of his mentors, Bill Parcell, Sean Payton, none of these guys. He's trying to be Dan Campbell. And, you know, it's almost like a politician in the sense that he knows who he's trying to cut through to his constituency. And that's the players and the fans.

So then you get like the kneecap comments or whatever. And he just knows that that's what, that he's. speaking to the players when he's doing that. And it was, it was, it was good. And I implore you to read it. I'm going to have another profile of another Midwestern boss,

um, up on the site, um, tomorrow depending on when you listen to this. Um, so it's been really fun to meet a bunch of people throughout, uh, to spend time with people throughout the league.

I had not. I'd actually never met Dan Campbell before this. Um, we just hadn't had any connected before. Um, so I really enjoyed that. Uh, I'm also picking the Packers.

I don't think the Lions are going to be very good. Ben. Yeah, I have the packers. I don't think anyone else in the division's going to be very good. Don't have a lot of faith in Minnesota this year. And then obviously Chicago and Detroit are trying to scrape things together right now a little bit. Okay.

Big question. If Justin Fields is a starter by October 1st, if you were just given that deal hypothetically, you know this to be true. Justin Field starts by October 1. Does it change anything? No. I think that you have a first-year defense coordinator who's doing a lot of the right things, but generally the cupboard's a little bit bare in the secondary.

the bear the bear the bear's second corner right now is kindle builder uh their third corner is duke shelly these are sixth round picks and they were fun college players who are like really you thought would be like trying to get a foothold on the NFL roster and right now they're the whole thing uh and so a lot of stress on that secondary right now and then the offensive line it could be fields week one dull in week one they could flip a coin at kickoff to decide who plays like i don't really matter uh that offensive line is going to make offense really really difficult especially early doors so tough for me to have a lot of faith in the bears. Quite possibly the worst tackle

combination in football. Yeah. Like Jason Peters is a bona fide Hall of Famer, but rather the last couple years of film is really, really rough. There's a reason he was available. So to me, that, like, that signing has like nice name recognition might make you feel good in your heart, but when you're seen it on the field, it can be pretty.

Okay, we're three for three on the backers. Yep. NFC South. Nora. Well, I presume we're going to be three for three on this one as well, although leaving room for you guys to be spicy. I'm going with the bucks. You know, I think it's a lot of chalk this year.

Because it's a lot of quarterbacks in stable environments. Yeah, exactly. And I don't know if you guys have heard this, but speaking of stable environments, everybody's back and they won the Super Bowl last year. And now they have time to prepare with each other. And I think it's going to go well. Yeah.

They get to meet Tom Brady. Ben? Yeah, I have the Bucks as well. I think the Saints are going to be decenter than expected. But in general, yeah, I have no reason to pick against the Bucks. And also, they both get to play the Falcons and the Panthers twice, which is just unfair. Okay. So Bucks minus 200.

The favorite, obviously, Saints plus 350, Falcons plus 900, Panthers plus 1,000. Is there anybody of the Falcons or Panthers that you guys think has the chance to be better than the Saints. Because I see a path for the Falcons to be better than the Saints. Am I crazy? I see a, I don't think you're totally, totally crazy. I can see a path there. I could certainly see the Falcons offense being better than the Saints offense. You know, an injury goes one way. The Falcons really click with Arthur Smith in the first year. I just think defensively, there's probably going to be a really big gap there. Obviously, you're not framing this in the sense that like, is it likely? rather could it happen?

Maybe it could happen. I will say. I don't think that they're going to challenge the bucks, but I'm pretty high on the Saints now. Like, they're probably the team. They're one of a handful of teams where I've been most encouraged by their training camp preseason results. And I think they're going to, I think they're maybe a 10-win team,

9-10. Like, they could get to double digits pretty easily. Oh, boy. Um, okay. I'm, my, Ben, is 10 wins too much

for the New Orleans Saints? I have the Saints as a 10 win team and we, taking the seventh seat, taking a wildcard berth. Okay. You get to play the Panthers and the Falcons. Can't overstate that. That's critical.

Also, Sean Payton and like the Saints box rivalry is a really fun divisional rivalry in a, in a time which like divisional rivalries are like a little bit matter less than they used to. The Bucks haven't swept the Saints since 05. they either split or the Saints of two Odom. And so to me, I don't expect the Bucks to beat the Saints twice.

I envision them splitting. So I think that the Saints can go five and one against their division, which is huge in terms of your record. Other than that now, it's a question of how many shootouts are you going to win? Because defensively, they lost a lot of talent, and they still have some enticing pieces. DeMario Davis, Malcolm Jenkins, Chauncey Gardner Johnson. If Marcus Davenport comes along nicely with Cameron Jordan,

we have enough pieces to hang on defense. but really this is going to be a matter of I expect this passing game to create explosives and to be able to put 30 burgers and 40 burgers on people, not weekly, but enough that we scrape away and we win a few games.

Michael Thomas' health and availability would make me feel a lot better about that, but just with the past protection on the offensive line and the verticality we've seen from the offense in the preseason, I have enough faith in that to give the Saints wins against teams

like Dallas, against like, you know, the giants, because they face the whole NFC East. Great division to play if you want to bring up some wins. And so, yeah, I think they can steal a couple. Superdome is a great home field advantage, which they get back this year. Obviously, once everybody's safe and able to play in New Orleans. And so to me, there's a lot of things skewing the Saints way.

So long as Peyton's got a decent bridle on the Bronco that is James Winston, I think will be okay. Okay, I'm doing it. I have the Falcons second in this division. There it is, brother. NFC West. And by the way, I'm going to get to the Falcons a little bit. a little bit later. That's a tease.

NFC West, Nora. All right. I don't know if I believe this in my heart of hearts, but I just, I felt too shocking. Off to a hot start.

San Francisco. The San Francisco 49ers are better than the Los Angeles Rams. There, I said it. Take that. When does Lance start,

Nora? How many games do you have to play? How many games does he have to play? For you, for you to think that they're on balance, a better team. No, so here's, this is the thing.

I'm not sure it matters. Because as long as Jimmy's playing... See, I don't disagree with this. This is why I asked. As long as Jimmy's playing, it means that he's healthy and playing pretty well. Like, the reason I think this is because I trust Kyle Shanahan to make the right decision. Sure.

And two, to prioritize winning, right? Like, even over the development of the, you know, future franchise quarterback, I think that he will be able to make the right calls in terms of, okay, are we going to platoon a little bit? When should Jimmy start? At what point is it the right time to bring Trey in? So I think, I don't think it matters. I think Trey Lance could play three games.

And I would trust that unless he's thrust into starting because Jimmy Garoppolo gets hurt. In any case, that's a good outcome for the 49ers, because he's not going to play until he's ready. But if he's, or Jimmy's a disaster. But if Jimmy's still playing, the likelihood is that he's playing decently well. and this is a team that with pretty good play from Jimmy Garoppel who stays healthy has made a Super Bowl. I don't think we quite remember how good the 49ers are. That's all. And it's not all.

I lied. It's not all. If Tray Lance gets in there at some point, a running game which was already really scary is flipping terrifying. Okay, that's all. And that's everything. Okay, I very much agree. That's why I asked about Tray Lance. To me, Lance as a rookie, starting in like week one,

describes the floor of the 49ers offense this year. And that floor is still pretty doggone good. Lance has been like missing easy throws in the preseason, and they've still been putting together drives. And it's because of what he does for the running game and his ability to throw down the field. So that's the floor. Whether he plays in week one or plays in week eight,

they'll be above the floor because either Jimmy's playing great and he's out there or Jimmy's out. is in and Lance is getting better week after week after week. So to me, like the Niners' offense being at least good is one of the safest bets in the NFL this year. Because with one of the two quarterbacks, it'll definitely be at least that. That's the faith you have in Chanahan. That's what you've seen from Jimmy in the past.

And that's what they can do with Lance. With that said, I don't have the Niners winning the division. But I agree that I think that their offense has a pretty safe high floor, regardless of which quarterback is starting. This is such a fake hot take because the Niners are the betting favorite. Are they? Oh, seriously? Holy Moses.

See, I didn't look. So, so we actually talked about this. They are either tied or the betting favorite in most sports books. There's some of them where they're flipped. But the one I'm looking at right now, which appears to be some sort of aggregation or average. The Niners are 180. The Rams are 190. Hawks 275 Cardinals plus 650.

See, the bet that I have and I've had for a while is Seahawks. Because to me, it should just, it should be. should the three of them should be extremely closely tied. And Seattle's been comfortably the third pretty much the entire way through. So for me, it's the Rams. Stafford in a great position, great offensive line, top end talent everywhere, I would say. They don't have, you know, Trent Williams is the best player if you combine the two offensive lines, but they're both going to keep their quarterback upright.

The kind of the blue chip talent on the Rams to me is something that we need to focus on. and I think that Sean McVeigh is a damn good coach. I think Sean McVeigh and Kyle Shanahan are two of the three best offensive minds in football. And I can see a lot of different paths here. But if you run this 100 times, the Rams win the division more in my opinion. But also, listen,

as you just said, Ben, I can definitely see everybody here winning 12 games and the Seahawks winning on some random tiebreaker. Yeah. And the thing is like, and by the way, in this scenario, pray for Cliff Kingsbury. Yeah, no, I mean, I have the Cardinals as a clear fourth in this division.

Do not think they can. Should also take Cliff first coach firing with that bet. I'll actually parley those two things. The thing is like, I still have the Cardinals. Like, I have the Cardinals winning a game against the Seahawks. And that's why the Seahawks, to me, lose the divisions of the Rams. I have it very tight. But this, like, when I talked about how the bills don't drop stupid games, you know,

who loves to drop stupid games, the Seattle Seahawks. And in a division that's this close with this much talent, I think Seattle's generally underrated, but also I don't want to be put the one putting faith in them because I just know how mercurial that team can be and how silly stuff can get in the middle of the season for them. So I have the Rams winning the division. I have the Rams with 14 wins, yeah, 14 wins and the knives with 13 wins. I mean, I struggle to find losses for all three teams on their roster. I think all three are playoff teams and I think any could be any on any given week.

All they're doing is thinking of ways to beat each other. They don't really care about the rest of their schedule because they have the talent to win those games. It's going to be a ludicrously fun division to watch. For me, right, I take the Rams. I think the Stafford bump is enough. But, you know, screw me for big in this division. It's impossible. Can I say something dumb that I truly believe?

Yeah. But three hours ago, I said Matthew Stafford for MVP. So we're this, we are in no judgment zone here. There's, there's too much buzz about the Rams. It's too much buzz. Like it's bad? It makes me uncomfortable. Yeah, it makes me uncomfortable.

We were talking about this with Stafford a little bit. We're like, my issue with picking him from MVP. is I think they have to win the Super Bowl. That's not it because that's not how the voting schedule works. But I think they have to win like 14 games. Yeah, they might though, because they're good at football. Yeah, but people have been saying it over and over and over again for the last however many months.

And it makes me nervous. Okay. I'm going to say this. I was at Lions practice for two days. I watched a lot of plays. Jared golf is bad. Yeah. Jared Goff is bad.

And it's one of those things where, Nora, you've done this before. I'm out. You're doing a hundred different things. You're trying to corral people. You're trying to talk to people. The practice itself when you're working on a profile like that is almost incidental. So it wasn't like I was sitting there locked in with my notepad and my stopwatch saying,

let's get some Jared Goff tape in my brain. I was just like watching one out of every three plays and it was popping out to me that Jared Gough is just not very good at this. And the further we get removed from the Sean McVeigh thing, the more of a miracle what he did, what McVeigh did with golf is going to seem. And I think that having a guy like Stafford, there's a reason all those guys were on Cabo trying to trade for Matthew Stafford.

Okay, there's a reason for that. He's really good. And they can do interesting things with them. Having said that, listen, three playoff teams here. And I'm not, I'm not, I'm not mad at any of them. All right, wild cards, Nora. So I've got the Rams, the Seahawks, and the Saints. Yeah, I have the Seahawks, the Niners, and the Saints.

I have the Seahawks, the Niners, and the Falcons. Arthur Smith, let's go. Nora, weren't you an early adopter with the Falcons? Yes. And you've just moved on? So I think they'll look better. I think their offense could be really fun to watch. It's just that the Saints moved the needle for me,

and I'm not ready to say that the Falcons are. I mean, I really think the Saints could win 10 games. I don't think the Falcons are a 10-win team. Wrong. Kevin Clark, the Atlanta Falcons are a 10-win team. That's your take? I think that I'm predicting them to be the seventh team. I'm predicting them to maybe play in the Nickelodeon game.

Oh, forgot about that. That'll be fun. So you think it's going to be, you think that game is going to be Falcons Washington football team? I think so. On the previous podcast, Ben, I predicted that Ryan Fitzpatrick was going to win MVP. You're firing from the hip today, man. I appreciate it. I can't do it with the mountains. Hey, let's say my first rodeo. You better buckle up, so lack. Season predictions. We fire shots that are never remembered. All right.

Sometimes they are. The Jaguars just signed Jacob Pollister. They have signed a second person. So there we go. I should see my mention sometimes. Like, you know, I said Cam Newton was a good signing. I had some, you know, part of the biz. It's the tax you have for living out your dreams.

People get mad at you every once in a while. All right. Let's get to the big show. Final four and Super Bowl. Norprinciotti, AFC Final two, rather. Chiefs over Browns. Oh, I don't know. respect it. All right. I've got this. I think the Browns win the division. I think the

AFC championship game is Chiefs over Ravens. I think a little bit of people forgetting about the Ravens is going to help and go a long way in January. Ben? I'd love, I'd love it because I believe in the Ravens. I have bills over Chiefs. Bill's over Chiefs. Okay. Why don't you take us through that? The nugget that you gave Kevin, where you talked about how the, the brand of be in the philosophy in the bill's front office this entire off season was hey let's beat the chiefs it's stuck with me right and then you look through the roster and you keep wondering to yourself why haven't they invested more at corner like they need to do this and when you said that i realized like if you invest in corner to beat the chiefs it'll probably never work right the ravens have the best

corner room in the league and they just never stop my homes haven't done it in years uh it's not going to be by being able to move him out of the pocket quickly make him uncomfortable hit him other stuff that we've talked about. That's how the bills have built it. Now, it remains to be seen if they've got those pieces. But if they do, you have the ability to take some wind out of the chief sales. And then it goes back to what I said about the bill's offense previously in the show. When they're on, I mean, when the flame throwers go in, like, they can score with anybody.

And so if a team has a chance to beat the chiefs in the AFC playoffs, I think it's the bills. And mostly probably out of just boredom and desire for something new, little enwee. I just took the bills to beat the Chiefs in the FC Championship game. But I think if we get that matchup, it'll be a lot of fun. Let me tell you how the content biz works. I predicted the Chiefs. I've talked up the Ravens and the Browns. And now you've predicted the bills off of a nugget that originated with me, which means I've covered all of my bases.

I cannot be wrong. The FC champion in one way or another. I'm like, they always say that Jerry Jones has 5% of every business. You know, like this is, this is me a little bit here where I'm just, I've just got, the numbers are rolling on these takes. Um, okay, so I agree, you know, something, so something Bean said, it was in the article. I wrote about, um, Josh Allen in the front office a couple of weeks ago. It's on the ringer. Uh, basically with, with, with, with being he, he did not, I don't think he spent a lot of time looking at the 2020 season as a whole and saying, what do we need to do.

I think he looked at the AFC championship game. He said that. And he said, how do we get that's what, how do we, how do we, how do we beat Mahomes? That's Greg Rousseau. Um, that's taking two pass rushers with the first two picks and which by the way, They didn't want to do, but they thought that AJ Epineza actually came on pretty strong at the end of last year. But now they just have an embarrassment of riches there. And they want to get after the quarterback.

It dovetails what we talked about with Mahomes and pressure, which Mahomes told me a couple weeks ago in Kansas City where he's bailing out of clean pockets. He's trying to get better at that. That to me, as you said, Ben, is the matchup to watch this year. Mahomes versus elite pressure if teams can get it. I love the take. NFC. Nora. Packers over bucks.

rematch goes the other way. I have the same. As an Eagles fan who watched the Eagles lose four consecutive NFC championship games, I believe it was. I was like three at the time. I wish that on nobody. I have the Packers winning the NFC championship game

mostly for the health of the mental health of their fan base, who if they lose another one and then watch Rogers go somewhere else, man, Green Bay is going to become Canada real quick. Like, they're just going to leave. So yeah, I've got a, I have the pack beating the buck. I have the Packers beating the Rams. Oh, box out in the wild card round.

I think the Rams are good. They can lose in the divisional round. Oh, division round, excuse me. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, it's fine. Don't, don't take my take and make it hotter. Don't put my take and put it in a little dish and turn the stove on, Ben So-Lock. You leave that to me. Out here embellishing the extravagance of all of your takes.

Kevin said Matt Stafford for the next three years will win each MVP award. He's the new Mahomes. They should sign them to the Mahomes deal. All right. Stafford's going to be so good. They retroactively award him the last eight MVP's. Ain't that the truth? All right.

Moment is for Super Bowl. Nora Prince, the Kansas City Chiefs. Over the Green Bay Packers. Over the Green Bay Packers. And an offseason of drama with Aaron Rogers kicks off. The Green Bay Packers for Ben over the Buffalo Bills. I want Rogers to win a Super Bowl with Green Bay.

That's all right. There are enough good teams to beat them, but I wanted him to do it. So there you go. We are Thelma and Louising off this cliff, buddy. I have Packers winning the Super Bowl over the Kansas City Chiefs. I want to see it. I want to see it. I also want to see him then go somewhere else and win it with them,

just because I like messy. But I want to see this. That's the question. If the Packers won the Super Bowl, I want both of you to answer this. Does Rogers stay? No. Yes. win Super Bowl, go to Denver, win Super Bowl again, flip off Brian Goonkons on Live television.

So I actually do think I, okay, so, so Ben, I actually do think that's part of it. Like, I, Rogers has never told me this. I've never, this is not sourced directly to Rogers at all, at all. But I think there are people in the league who think that Brady messed with people's heads last year, like going to a place and winning a Super Bowl immediately and showing how important he is to a franchise. guys. And I don't think that's necessarily an Aaron Rogers specific take. I think if you're any elite quarterback, you're kind of like, huh, I'd like to do that. And so I actually am not discounting

your idea that if you wanted, he would want to go somewhere else and just win again, just like go to Las Vegas and drag John Grudens and Mike Mayask's, you know, husk up a mountain. Um, like, I don't think that's a crazy thought, but I don't know. I don't know. I think, I mean, it 100% is a crazy thought. It's just fun to think about. So for that reason, yeah. I think he's gone regardless. I think they could miss the playoffs, win the Super Bowl anywhere in between. I think he's gone. So what

let's flip this around. What if they get really close and lose the Super Bowl? Would he really want to become Sisyphus here and just try to drag another team up? Like, would winning the Super Bowl allow him to leave easier than losing close? Do you go what I'm saying?

I understand. My thing with it is this, is that the Packers have lost back-to-back NFC championship games. And in my opinion, the greatest culprit in both of those losses individually was Mike Patton, the defensive coordinator, and was their struggles on defense. Obviously, very evident

in the loss of the Niners in 2019, and then in the Bucks game a little bit less so, but still they made some critical mistakes, you know, end of the first half and whatever. Those reality, that reality, of Patton really being, I think, the primary culprit, didn't stop Rogers from finding other scapegoats to blame. You know what I mean?

Other things to get frustrated about And so to me, if they get inches away and then miss it, and it's the fault of luck of a random bounce of the ball of anything, I don't think necessarily Rogers will be like, well, we should have won, but we didn't. And it's just because it was unlucky. But, you know, the team's being run the right way, let me stay. Like, to me, it just seems like he has an umbrage with the way the team is being run.

And independent of the process behind their loss, the result of a loss is only going to further frustrate him. Nora, any chief's take that you need to get out there that you haven't already? They're good. Can I give you an Aaron Rogers take instead? Please. I agree with Ben. I think he's more likely to go if they win.

I think losing makes people feel racked with doubt and indecision. And in that context, it's easier to make a safe choice. If he goes out on top, it's just going to be like, all right, on in the next one. How big of a bummer has it been that we predicted that the Packers are going to win the Super Bowl? Packers fans are fist pumping in their cars all over the place. And we immediately turn to, does Rogers go to Denver as soon as this happens? See, it's like,

no, but it's like I said, you see, I set them up. I said, I don't want you to lose the NFC championship game. That'd be very sad. You're going to win a Super Bowl with Rogers. And then immediately come back over the top with, and then he leaves and wins somewhere else. Because, again, if it's not my team,

I just want it to be as messy and drama-filled as possible. So that way I can get these tweets off. We love you, Packers fans. We do think that you're going to win the Cere World, two of the three of us. think you're going to win the Super Bowl. And we can leave for the Rogers speculation until March. You can leave then.

Yeah, we'll definitely wait. Yeah, we're definitely not going to talk about it on Thursday show. Every week of the season. I'm going to talk about it a lot. That was the funny thing. No, I'm joking. That was the, I know. In LeBron's last year, in LeBron's last year, Pat Riley, like, either released

a statement at a press conference. He was like, you know, I just think I'm challenging our reporters to not bring up LeBron's last year in Miami. Like we're not going to bring up the fact that he is a free agent after this year. And then they just ignored him. So we're just going to do it all the time. There's been the Renfell Show in the Ringer Podcast Network. Thank you to Isaiah Blakely for reduction help with additional production supervision by Arjuna Ramkapal.

We'll be back on the feed a bunch of times this week because our shows are launching. See you then.