The Ringer NFL Show - Predicting Head Coach Landing Spots, the Deterioration of Jalen Hurts, and Justin Herbert Deserves More Attention

Episode Date: December 11, 2024

Reports are swirling around the University of North Carolina’s interest in hiring Bill Belichick, leading The Ringer’s Sheil Kapadia and Nora Princiotti to speculate how they think five NFL teams will fill head-coaching vacancies at the end of the season (00:00). Then, in his weekly QB Corner segment, Steven Ruiz evaluates the careers of the 2020 QB NFL draft class (41:23). For more from Ruiz, check out his Week 14 review article here on The Ringer’s new web site. Hosts: Sheil Kapadia, Nora Princiotti, and Steven Ruiz Producer: Troy Farkas  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What's happening? It's Todd McShay, and I'm back with a new home and a new show at the Ringer and Spotify. The McShay Show. It's a video and audio podcast coming to you year round with all my NFL draft information, big boards, mock drafts, and player movement. Plus, I'll be chatting with some of my best friends in football, including some of your favorite football analysts. During the week, we'll have episodes on Tuesdays and Thursdays that'll include discussions about my player rankings, who's rising, who's falling, and who your NFL team should be keeping an eye on. Plus, we'll be reacting each week to the college football playoff polls and giving you previews and picks for each Saturday slate. In addition, I'll have episodes on Saturday nights

with my immediate reaction to the full day in college football every week. So if you love the college game, the NFL, the draft, or all of it like me, make sure to like, follow, subscribe, and get ready for the McShay show on the ringer, Spotify, and wherever you watch or listen to podcasts. Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. Shield Capadia here with Nora Princeziati. We're going to do a little matchmaking. We've got five teams that we feel pretty good about are looking for, are going to be looking for head coaches this off season. And we're going to take a look around and say, where are the head coaching candidates going to end up? Now, Nora, by the time people listen to this, who knows where Bill Belichick's going to be by the time, but we're going to assume he's still

on the market for purposes of our exercise. Okay. Oh, news to me. This will make this interesting. Okay. I was assuming he was off the market. You think he's going to North Carolina? I mean, doesn't it seem like that's happening?

All right. I will get into it. I'll surprise you. You don't have to add him. I will tell you my theory. So that's a good tease. When we get to the team that I think maybe if he doesn't go to North Carolina, that I think Bill Belichick is going to go to this team,

I'll explain to you. what I think is happening. It could be completely wrong. Again, he could be at North Carolina by the time you end up listening to that. So we're going to have a lot of fun going over these five teams. And then Stephen Ruiz is going to join for a little QB corner as always. All right. We've got five teams here.

The five teams are the Jets. We know they're looking for a head coach. The Jaguars, we feel pretty strongly they're going to be looking for a head coach. The Raiders, again, feel pretty strongly. They're going to be looking for a head coach. and then the Bears and the Saints who have already fired their head coaches. I feel like we're kind of a Jets podcast anyway, Nora, with the way this season is gone. So let's just start with the Jets.

Every week, the Jets have given us something to talk about. So who do you have, this actually, I thought, for the purposes of this exercise, I thought this was the hardest one where the other ones I said, I can see this, I can see this. The Jets, I'm like, I'm really not sure. So I'm curious to hear who do you think is going to be coaching? the New York Jets. Well, can you tell me, though, why that is? Is it because you think that some candidates might not want to go there?

Or you just think it's hard to sort of put your finger on what organizationally they might feel is right for them? Yeah, I think it was a combination of those things. I was like, well, what are they going to be looking for? And then if I am a coach that has multiple options with some of these other teams, are the Jets going to be more attractive than Team X? Like there's one guy. I was like, who I could really see that.

And I ended up putting him on another team there, which I'll get to here in a few minutes. But yeah, I think that that's the reason why I'm not really sure what do they want. You know, their last head coach, they go for a kind of up-and-comer, no previous experience, but a defensive-minded guy who had a good reputation came from a winning organization. It didn't work out. Some organizations then go the complete opposite direction after that. But it's not like they're trying to groom a young quarterback. or anything. So that had a little wrinkle in there. So yeah, I just had a hard time finding the person

I felt really good about. Well, so here's what I did. And I think actually we talked about this, as you said, we are a bit of a Jets podcast these days at one point earlier. So maybe this isn't shocking to our listeners. I matched them with Mike Rable because to your point about it being a little bit hard to pin down sort of what the philosophy might be there, what, you know, what's the number one thing that they're looking for in a candidate? I don't know the answers to those questions, but when I look at the Jets, in, you know, for the last five years, let's call it, there's basically one thing that they've done well. And it's played defense. They have for the, you know, under Sala, they had a very good defense and they've really struggled on offense. And that has

basically, it sort of gets masked in all of the drama and the chaos and the Aaron Rogers of it all. But fundamentally, the Jets recently, have been a good defensive team that has been held back by their offense. And I suppose you could say, well, okay, then fix the offense. But I actually think it's probably more prudent to say, there are players on this roster right now who, in very recent memory, have done this one thing very well. And we should hire someone who is capable of taking advantage of that.

I think it's also helpful that Vrable has the profile of someone, who is a bit of a program builder or at least a program energizer. You know, he was a player. He knows how to talk to players. I think you could, I don't know that he's the number one candidate on the list of this guy can come in and rejuvenate your organization and turn the vibes around. But I also don't think he's last on that list either. I think you could do a lot worse.

And he also feels to the point about, okay, who's going to want to go there? he feels sort of like the right level. I think Mike Rable is a very good coaching candidate. I don't think he's going to be the top coaching candidate this cycle, but I also don't think that he's the bottom. So he seemed right fitting for the Jets to me. Yeah, I think he's probably going to be up there. You know, when you do this exercise and you're like,

all right, who's actually going to get ahead coaching job? It was a smaller list than I think I usually have most years at this time where I'm able to pluck an offensive coordinator and say, hey, maybe no one's talking about him now or a college coach and say, I could see somebody hiring him. I had a harder time this year. I did have Rable on my list. I think he would, we talked about it last time.

I think he would play well in New York. I think the media would love him. Like you said, it's sort of this in-between team. That's kind of what he coached in Tennessee. I mean, they had some really good years, but it wasn't like they had a young quarterback who they had to mold. It's not like they had an awesome quarterback. They had Ryan Tannahill,

and they got the best years out of Ryan Tanna Hill, Derek Henry, A.J. Brown, kind of a gritty defense. You know, he put Arthur Smith in charge of the offense and that worked out really well. So we kind of had to figure it out with imperfect pieces, which that makes sense to me for a guy you would want to hire for the Jets. It's like, we don't really know where this is going. You know, we don't know what the team's going to look like next year. We don't know who's going to be playing quarterback. But we just want someone to kind of stabilize this thing and give us some leadership. and give us some direction and get the most out of the players that we have on the roster.

So I think Brable's a good choice. I ultimately landed him with a different team, but when I was doing my first draft, I actually had him with the Jets here. So I think that was a good one. I went with a guy you yelled at me for last time. But you know what? The more I thought about it, I said maybe. And that's Steve Spagnolo.

Now, I actually think, Nora, no, we're not doing the giants in this exercise. All right, because the giants, we don't know. are they going to keep Brian Dayball or not? I actually could really see the Giants hiring spags. Come back. This guy was a defensive coordinator for us when we were actually good. One Super Bowls. He deserves another chance, all that.

I could see them doing that. But I could also see the Jets kind of being one of these teams that just sort of stuck. They're looking around. They're interviewing a lot of people. They hired the 33rd team. That's what I was going to say. It's really what we should be doing here is figuring out who Mike Tannenbaum thinks should coach the Jets.

That's what I thought. I'm like, I could say, you know, these are guys who were in the league at that time, right? They were in the league a while ago. It's not like they're in the league now. Now they're on TV.

So it's Mike Tannenbaum, for those who don't know, he runs this consulting firm called the 33rd team. So the Jets hired that firm to help them hire a GM. So yes, they are hiring a GM they previously fired to help them find a GM to now run their team. I think that's how our colleague, Sean Fennessey put it. He had a great tweet about that, which summed it up perfectly. So yes,

that's what they're doing. So I thought maybe an older school guy. So I don't really know. Maybe they could sell it, hey, what he's learned over the years as a coordinator. It's going to be different for him when he gets a head coaching job this time. The players are all going to like him. He's going to be great with the meet. He just seems like a likable guy, like in terms of just this actually seems like kind of a normal human being. And he's an NFL coach. he seems to check that box, so I think it would play well. Where I hesitated was, does it feel a little bit too similar to the guy they just fired in Robert Zala, where it's like, that was kind of supposed to be his thing. Good defensive coach, players are going to like him.

So again, I didn't love the choice, but that's who I landed on. Still can't get over the thing that I yelled at you about, which was just like, we can't be doing this to Spags, man. He's worked too hard for too long. I why does he just not make sense there to me? I think it's because Spag seems pretty normal. And there's something to me about like, if someone's going to go coach the Jets, I want them to have a little bit of a psychopath kind of energy. Yeah.

Because I just think it's a survival mechanism. And no offense to Mike Rable, who's a lovely person from everything that I know. There's something where I'm just like, you can, you'll be okay. You'll be able to navigate this. He's got a lot of psychopath energy. Yeah. There's no doubt about it. Yeah.

But I take your point. I mean, again, to the same thing. I do think the priority should be preserving that defense just because I think it's the clearest thing that you can say that you can actually hang your hat on. Yeah. I was looking at the Ben Johnson's and the Jesse Minters. But if it's a guy that I don't really know that much about, like, and not as a coach, I can think there might be good at what they're doing right now.

But I don't know, like, how are they going to command the room? and deal with the chaos and that kind of thing, I just couldn't, like, put them there. So that's who I landed on for the jets. All right. Next team is the Jacksonville Jaguars. And I'm going to lead us off here, Nora, because I still think there's a chance Bill Belichick,

goes to the Jaguars. Here's my theory. Again, this could look very stupid in a matter of hours if Bill Belichick takes the North Carolina job. But here's what I'm thinking. The Jaguars have known for a while that they are firing Doug Peterson,

presumably. I guess you never know, but that's like a 99% chance. It feels like they've had plenty of time to gauge Bill Belichick's interest in the job. Belichick has had plenty of time to vet the Jacksonville Jaguars. What's the organization like? What would the setup be? Is there any chance that this North Carolina thing is a negotiation, negotiating tactic for Bill Belichick, where he's had these conversation with the Jaguars. Maybe it's a money thing. Maybe it's a control. thing, maybe it's something else, but he wants to have some other play where he can tell an NFL team. And I don't think there's going to be a ton of NFL teams that are interested in Bill Belichick, but he wants to be able to tell an NFL team that, hey, I've got other options and I will

look seriously at North Carolina and other options unless I get X, Y, and Z. If you don't give it to me, then guess what? I'm going to go somewhere else. I don't know. Maybe. So I still had I just, until I see that official, until I see him wearing the tar heel blue and holding that introductory press conference, I still have to believe his preference would be coaching in the NFL. And I see a Jaguars team that is in position to hand him control of basically the entire organization and say, go ahead, help us build a winner here. I still feel like that could make sense.

So that's the interesting thing, isn't it? because if he does end up at North Carolina, I do think one thing will have learned is that overall program control was really important to Bill Belichick. And there were times in the last coaching cycle where, you know, there are little snippets reported

and I think conversations about, well, does he really need to have all the reins? And would he potentially be willing to cede some of that if it was going to help him get a job or if that was, you know, what an organization needed, if he liked the incumbent general manager or stuff like that. I do think there's a possibility that we are in the midst of learning that that just really

wasn't the case. And he's Bill Belichick and he's done it his way for a really long time and had a lot of success doing it and why would he change now? And, you know, that's obviously something that a coach can go do in college. And then the Jaguars are an interesting test case of if he would have the opportunity to do that in the NFL because I think, you know, there are a very interesting test case of, you know, I've read stories that say he has a great relationship with Tony Kahn. And because they're close, Belichick is comfortable with the organization.

He's comfortable with the way that they run things. I've also read stories that say, you know, he is sort of taking shots at the owner's son being involved in analytics and running some of the show and personnel there and that not being something that he wants to do. with. And I don't quite know what to think there. And so if that ends up being a roadblock, if that feels like a roadblock to ultimate organizational control, then I guess I can see, I guess that would make it less likely that the North Carolina job is sort of a tactic. I think that to me is the biggest question in terms of whether or not the Jaguars would be super interested in him or if that would be something that would work out.

Yeah, this is a fluid story. We could have a conclusion at any moment in time here. Who did you have for the Jaguars? Well, so here's my question for you about this job. I'm having a really hard time placing how good of a job I think this is. And we've talked before about how I think we're in agreement on this. I think a lot of conversations about, you know, anytime somebody says no one's going to want to coach there and it's an NFL head coaching job, They don't know what they're talking about because there's 32 of these and they pay really well and they're prestigious and people want to do it. But there are better jobs and worse jobs in a cycle. And the Jaguars one to me is really confusing because they just have a weird sort of like if it hasn't worked with Trevor Lawrence so far.

What does that mean? And how much of a problem is that going to be for whoever comes in to coach? that team that, you know, Doug Peterson wasn't able to solve it. Obviously, I don't think anybody's saying, like, man, if Urban Meyer couldn't do it. But, like, it's hard for me to figure out if, say, you're interviewing Ben Johnson, who I think is the top candidate in the cycle. Is he going to be sitting there going like, man, yeah, I can, I can, I can think about what I could do with Trevor.

And yes, the roster's in a pretty rough state. and I'm curious what they're going to do in personnel, and I have all these questions, but man, I do think that there's still a great quarterback in there. And I might have another opportunity to find someone like that in this group of teams, but not that many, and that's really attractive. Or is this just not that great of a job?

And I netted out somewhere in the middle, but I ultimately, and, you know, we'll get there. I think I wouldn't bet on this team to make a run at Ben Johnson if he is the most coveted candidate and ultimately be successful in that. And therefore, because the Belichick question is interesting, I was not including him. It kind of put me in a weird no man's land with them. And so I went with a player that they have a connection with, a player, a coach who they have a connection with because he was a player. And that's Aaron Glenn, who actually has a lot of strangely high number of connections with a lot of the teams. that are probably going to be looking for a new head coach here.

And I think, you know, it's less about specifically building a strong defense, although I do think, obviously, that's something that's been sort of elusive for them. And more that I think you buy in on someone who's seen that program build in Detroit up close, and you hope that he can take some of the lessons learned there and carry it over to, take this roster that even if it's not as good as maybe they were cracked up to be has clearly underperformed the last couple years and do a little bit more with it. Yeah, no, I'm with you on Aaron Glenn. I think he's going to get a job.

That was one thing I learned from doing this exercise. I was like, I could see him here, I could see him here, I could see him here. Like, he's a guy who could go to the Jets for sure. He was one I had on the list there, a guy who played there, who played well for them, who comes, like you said, from an organization that has been very successful. I think I mentioned it another time on this pod that he got voted like very highly on that NFLPA survey about defensive coordinators you would most like to play for or whatever the framing was.

So it seems like players seem to like playing for Aaron Glenn. He's, you know, paid his dues there. They've turned that defense around. And he's been with a couple different organizations. He's got the player's background. So he's got a lot of stuff going for him for sure. So I like that one there in Jacksonville. In terms of, I feel like what the Jaguars have going for them as a possible destination is that if we assume Trent Bulky's going to be gone, and I guess with him, you kind of never know.

So until he's sort of always around until he's not around. But I'm going to assume that they're going to blow it out. So if you're looking at a place like, all right, this is just a fresh start. Let's get the coach and the GM on the same page. You have a quarterback. The expectations are pretty low. like if you make the playoffs a couple times in four years, that's good.

You're going to be the most successful coach there since Tom Coughlin probably. So I feel like they've got some of that stuff going for them. They've got a corner, you know, they've got a couple defensive linemen. It's not the best roster. But I do feel like there's at least more there than the current coaching staff has shown you've got a wide receiver in Brian Thomas Jr. So like some of those premium positions, they do have some young players.

You're playing in the AFC South. It's not exactly the best division in football. So I think there's some stuff there that you would look at and say, all right, if I can get the people in place who I want to work with, that there is something appealing about this as a destination. Fresh start, choose your own general manager, have a quarterback, winnable division, low expectations. Yeah. That is already a compelling package. No state income taxes? Right.

I feel like you have to mention that. A lot of golf, a lot of golf around Jacksonville. People love that. It's such an interesting crop of candidates in some ways because, okay, what is the hiring mode in the modern NFL? It's hire the hot offensive coordinator, right? Like, this is what everybody loves to do. In this cycle, there are basically one and a half of those. And I think it makes this a really interesting.

group because there's probably, you know, the funny thing is, like, there are a lot of defensive coordinators who've really helped their resumes this year. Like, you know, there are guys like Jesse Minter who are not ultimately going to show up on this list for me, but who I think have done well enough that people would be curious, that teams would be curious that they would take a look. Yeah. But it's just that this year, there are a lot of those and just not a lot of the, you know, oh, he worked with Sean McVeigh and look at this offense that has just done these interesting schematic things. It just feels like there are less and less of those guys available for people to hire.

So when it comes down to Ben Johnson being kind of like the one coveted OC, it's less about do I think the Jaguars have a good job opening, but it's like, is it the best? because this guy's only going to end up coaching one place. Yeah, I agree. It is a hard group of coaches to be like, all right, these are the guys who are definitely going to get hired. It is a weird group. You've got bets.

You've got guys who are out of the league. You've got young defensive coordinators. But yes, you don't have like four offensive coordinators who haven't been head coaches before who are you just like, man, they're doing an awesome job this year. These are the guys who are going to get hired. Those guys don't really exist in my opinion and in your opinion in this cycle. All right, take a break. We come back.

We go over the Raiders, the Bears, and the Saints. All right, we're back on the Ringer NFL show. This was an interesting one. The Las Vegas Raiders. Now, we're assuming that they will fire Antonio Pierce. It feels like a pretty safe assumption. I do enjoy how Antonio Pierce just like, as openly talked about, like, I don't know if my key card's still going to, you know, I think he said that at like Halloween.

He's like, I don't know my key card still going to work this week. So good for you, Antonio Pierce obviously is not. worked out for him this season. The Las Vegas Raiders, no quarterback, probably looking at a new GN, the Tom Brady thing with ownership. Who do you have going to coach the Raiders? Okay.

So I just told you that I think this is shaping up to be a sort of atypical coaching cycle in part because there's a lack of possible Sean McVeigh clones that NFL owners can fall in love with. But I'm going to give the Raiders the kind of one that I think is out there. And that's Liam Cohen. And I just think that if you are, if you're in Las Vegas, your last two hires went terribly.

And I can see there being a lot of appeal in just kind of doing the thing that everybody does. And to take the guy who comes off the McVeigh tree, take the guy who has worked with some middling quarterbacks, and gotten really good results. He's only coached in the NFL for five seasons, but at the same time, he's gone back and forth between the league and Kentucky. Probably nice to have someone who knows the players coming out of the college game, knows the college games schematically.

I can sort of see Tom Brady thinking that's a good idea. I don't know why. Just to me, that seems like something that he would get into. And he's obviously done one of the more impressive assistant coaching jobs this season in what he's done with that buck's offense. So the Raiders are sort of one of these blank slate teams. And therefore, I'm kind of going to the default setting. And that's Liam Cohen. Yeah, he's done a fantastic job.

He's definitely on the short list of like three or four offensive coordinators who have objectively done more with less this season with the talent they've had with the quarterback. they've had whatever. And I have been very impressed with Liam Cohen here. So I think that is a that is a good one. I could see that. Probably not going to be the most expensive guy on this list. So I don't know how many coaches Mark Davis is paying at this point, but that might be a nice thing. Also for him. I mean, I just thought about for this, who is Tom Brady going to tell him to hire? Like, you don't bring Tom Brady in to this role without basically him being your right hand, man, I think. Now, maybe I'm wrong about that. But I thought about it. And two names came to mine. One, Mike Rable, obviously, right? They have the connection from New England. And then the other

one, I can't get out of my head when Brady was calling like a Lions game and just everything Ben Johnson was doing. He was just like, you know, you could tell. He was definitely impressed. He wasn't like, there's too much hype around this guy. He was like, this guy's awesome. Look how he coaches offense. I landed on Brable for the Raiders. I thought it is a nice match on both sides where Brady will say, hey, this guy can build a program. We've got to be in this for the long term. He can be our coach for the next 10 years type thing. You know, he's going to bring a culture, all those things.

And don't worry about offensive coordinator. I'll help you with that. So you got that. And then on Brable's end, I think with the way things ended in Tennessee, he's going to like want a partner who he sort of trusts, you know, like there was definitely a power struggle there. And he ends up getting Alston. So whether it's a different GM with another team, I could see that, but I could see him here like, hey, like Tom will work together to choose like who I'm going to be working with and let's make sure that we're having influence on the players we bring in, that kind of thing.

So I have Brable going to Las Vegas and coaching the Raiders with Tom Brady. What do you think? You have more New England expertise than I have. Well, Frable feels like a Raider. There's something about that that just feels right. I can see him in the, yeah, I can see him in the get-up on the sideline. Totally, totally. He's got that intensity.

He's got that, you know, he's a linebacker. Like, it just feels right. I guess, and I think actually you're probably, you told me on that. I think the reason I went in a different direction was because I wonder how potent and pungent the stench of the Josh McDaniel's choice still is there. And I wondered if it would be strong enough to be like, you could apply this to Vrable. I think you could also apply this to Brian Flores maybe to just say, like, we're not doing New England guys anymore.

We did that and it really didn't work out and we're not doing that. On the other hand, you go and add Tom Brady to your ownership group. So maybe that should suggest to me that that's actually not as powerful a force against someone. Success, right? And Rables had success. And he's, you know, and he didn't coach there. He played there. Like, he's, he has differentiated himself in probably enough ways where I think, like,

that's why you've convinced me. Good job. That, that, I like this one. And then, of course, Dion would be the wild card there with the Raiders right now. Wow. You know, our colleague, Danny Kelly has Shadour Sanders going number two overall in the draft. So do you, do you pair Dionne? with Shador Sanders.

Now, I don't know. With Tom Brady, be like, yeah, let's go and do that. That kind of helped me back a little bit. If it was just Mark Davis, they're making the decisions, that would probably be a slam dunk where he'd be like, this is awesome. Yeah, let's go do that for sure. This is going to be great. Bring Dion to Vegas.

But I don't know that Brady would, maybe you would. Maybe he would say that's a great idea. But that's kind of a wild card with the Raiders. All right. Next team. This one was also tough. This was probably my second toughest one with the Jets, the Chicago Bears. Oh, interesting.

I found this one the easiest. You got someone? All right. Who do you got? Yeah, I think Chicago has the best case to make to Ben Johnson. Okay. I have a surprise, Nora. I've got Ben Johnson not taking a job again this cycle.

Well, so, okay, I'm so glad you do that because I did, when I was talking about this, when I was writing my notes down about this, I was like, okay, I think this is, I think this is the best opening this cycle. I think the cupboard on that roster is pretty well-stocked, and then obviously you can sell a lot of coaches about you get to come in here and work with Caleb Williams. That's a team that I think could be a pretty successful team, a pretty competitive team, maybe even a contender pretty quickly. If we believe that Ben Johnson is the coach who is going to have his pick of options this cycle, which I think that's a fair baseline assumption. and it follows that working with a talented young quarterback like Caleb Williams would probably be something that appeals to this guy.

Well, then great, sold, very obvious. And then the thing that I started thinking was, is there any fear? Like, if you're the bears and you feel this way, you feel like we have the best case, and this is the guy that we would want of all the candidates, and we have the best case, so that should be good. do you have the fear that you wait through a potential Super Bowl run? Other potential candidates can get hired at other places. And then he decides not to take a job.

And I assume everybody has their forces and talks to people and he'd make it, you know, clear what his intentions were. But we live in a post-Josh McDaniels cold swirl. Like, is there any – you have to kind of white-knuckle it through every week until he has signed on the dotted line there if you are Chicago. Now, that wasn't scary enough of a thought for me to not do this. I do think this makes a fair amount of sense. I do think that if you're Ben Johnson, you got to do it at some point. But what made you think that this is not going to be the year that he's going to stick around in Detroit?

I mean, I just kind of looked at the openings. And last year, I don't know that there was a great one. But like Washington last year, is it that different than Chicago? this year. You know, you would have been working with a rookie quarterback. Now you've seen Caleb Williams a little bit. The GM was already in place there in Adam Peters. The GM's already in place here at Ryan Poles. Washington, not a great organization, but had new ownership. The Bears have been kind of a dumpster fire organization. So I just wonder, like, I don't know what his motivations are. It seems like he might be, and I always roll my eyes when I hear the excuses, like

when you see the reports of a coach not, you know, withdrawing his name, most of the time, that means the coach wasn't getting the job. This may be like the 1% one where he might be like, I like the situation in Detroit. I'm going to be really picky. I'm not, you know, like a, what's it called? A careerist. Am I using that right?

I don't know that I've ever used that word before. Okay, yeah. Maybe he just doesn't have that hunger to be like, this is the ultimate of what I want to do. Again, normally I'm the person making fun of the people who make that argument on someone's behalf. I just do wonder if he is that rare, rare, rare exception where he's like when the right job comes along, if it does, I'll take it.

I'm not going to have, like, I'm not going to be someone who's going to be regretful because I didn't take a head coaching job because I really like where I am right now. I don't know, maybe. Do you not think that this opening is pretty far above average? I mean, yeah, it's not a great organization. There's a GM in place. So you're working with somebody who you presumably. Yeah, you don't know.

Like, I think it was Kevin Fishbane of the Athletic. did a great video explaining like the last however many years. And it's like they fire the coach, but keep the quarterback. They fire the GM, but keep the coach. They get rid of the quarterback. And it's just this cycle. The three are never aligned. The GM, the coach and the quarterback in Chicago for like decades now.

And who knows what he thinks of Caleb Williams? Like, yes, Caleb Williams is talented. I know like some people will probably look at his rookie film and are like, he's awesome. He can't miss. You could easily look at it and say, all right, there's kind of more. worse here than someone might have thought they were going to be, even though the situation obviously was not great for him as a rookie. So, yeah, I do, I think it's kind of in the eye of the beholder.

I think if you kind of took a survey of some of these coaching candidates, someone would say, yes, I can't wait to go there and work with him. What were they doing last year? That was terrible. This guy's unbelievably talented. And others might say, yeah, you know, I think he could be good, but, like, he's not going to be the one reason why I take this job. So I'm kind of on the fence there a little bit.

Interesting. Usually the perfect teams keep their coaches. That's true. You're right. I just think relative to most of the openings that would come around, it's a pretty attractive one. Do you think they would change the situation at all if, you know, say the Giants were also on this list and the Cowboys were also on this list? Ben Johnson Giants or Cowboys. Ooh, that's tough. I don't know. I mean, Dallas, if he's picky, then Dallas is not a great spot to be. And if he's picky, I mean, the giants, the giants are not a place you're going to go and win right away. And you have no quarterback solution right there. So I'm, I'm kind of inclined to say no, but, but I don't know. I could be wrong. Maybe it was just a one year thing. And he's

definitely going to take one of these jobs. The scenario you painted is when I could totally see where they think they're getting Ben Johnson, the Lions go to the Super Bowl. They win the Super Bowl. Or maybe they lose the Super Bowl. He's like, no, I love it. here. The lions are like, we'll make you the highest paid coordinator in NFL history. Yeah. And he's like, all right, sorry. And the bears are like, wait, what? Who are we going to hire now? The guy I have for the bears is probably not one that's going to make Bears fans too happy. But I was like, who could I see? And that's Cliff Kingsbury. Oh, goodness gracious. You're not. Don't do this to them. Listen, I think it's definitely

going to be an offensive coach. All right. So I think we're, we are on the same page there where I think they're going to look at it and say, who is going to develop Caleb Williams. So, and we just had a conversation about how it's not like there's five offensive coaches out there. You're like, get any one of these guys and it'll be great. So all we're talking about is a situation where Ben Johnson takes another job or says, I don't really want to coach there. And who's number two? Liam Cohen. I mean, are they going to hire Liam Cohen, maybe, but Cliff Kingsbury. It could be, you know, they look at it. They say look at what he did with the rookie quarterback with Jaden Daniels in Washington. The commanders have a top five offense this year with a rookie quarterback and a supporting cast. That's not that

great. They could look at that. They could look at, hey, he worked with Caleb Williams at USC. Now, I don't know what their relationships like. Are they, do they get along great? Will Caleb Williams say, yes, definitely make him the head coach or will he say you might want to look at someone else? I don't know the answer to that. And also, Cliff Kingsbury is not a guy who's going to have a bunch. Like, he can't be that picky. Like, if somebody calls, he better go running because I don't know how long his name's going to be out there. So, like, the Ryan Poles thing, that can't scare him off.

He's got to be like, all right, Caleb Williams, let's go. I'm not going to get a better scenario than this. So there you go. I can see it in a scenario like what we talked about where if they do think they're getting a Ben Johnson and he leaves him at the altar and they're sort of scrambling. Like, that's when you end up hiring Cliff Kingsbury. Does this hold if the commanders, now, I know they scored 42 points the last time they played, although I do think that Titans game was a little wonky? Does this hold if the commander's offense continues to sort of not keep up its pace from the first half of the year down the stretch?

And we end this season feeling like, okay, good year in Washington, they were a lot better than we thought they would be. but it didn't exactly disprove the issue people have with a lot of Cloakang-Bray's offenses, which is that they start hot and then fall off. Yeah, they can't go completely in the tank. Obviously, if they don't make the playoffs or they play really poorly down the stretch, I think that probably would have an impact,

even though that's kind of dumb if you're a team and you're judging it by a month there. But again, like I said, they're fifth in DVOA, offensive DVOA right now, so they kind of just have to hang on. Like, if they have two good games, two bad games, they're playing in the playoffs. By any measure, if we're looking at what we thought about them in August,

like that is a huge success of a season. And I think Cliff's got enough friends in the media where they'd be able to help shape the narrative. I don't really, I mean, I do agree with you that it's dumb to base a decision like that off a month of football. But it's not exactly like you can't extrapolate out. Like, hey, Cliff, if we're going to hire you for this job, can you have Terry McLaurin, like, run a different route for once?

Yeah, no. And then you can have the job? good hire, don't get me wrong. No, yeah, I think this would be a bad hire for the bears, but it's also a hire I could see them making. All right, the last one, the New Orleans Saints. Nora, who do you have coaching the New Orleans Saints? So, by the way, if I were the, if I were in Chicago and you wound up in that situation, like, I would hire this guy before I, I don't mean to rag on Cliff Kingsbury. I just, I don't think his resume is going to be that strong because I think the number one thing people hold against him

seems very much apparently true this season and that's hard for me to get over. I put Joe Brady with the Saints. Interesting. I think there's a lot of people in Louisiana who are going to remember that 2019 LSU season. I do think that, you know, obviously things seem to be going right in Buffalo this year.

Offensively, things are really clicking there. He was an offensive assistant under Sean Payton for the Saints in 2017 and 2018. And I just have this feeling that they're not going to go defense again. And therefore, I think you look at the offensive coaches and I think he's one who would be interested in the job, would have a connection to the organization.

I can just see that as a partnership. It's a good one. I did not think of Joe Brady, but I like that a lot. It's so funny how the great quarterbacks just get these coaches jobs. I mean, honestly, like the bill's offense has been good under every coordinator they've had, but it just kind of depends on, like, you know,

how are the turnovers this year? Oh, bad. Ken Dorsey, you're out of here. How are the turnovers this year? Good. Joe Brady, come on down. Like, that is very realistic. But, yeah, it's wild.

I mean, the great quarterbacks, some of these coaches should be given them some of their paycheck. So I like that one. The last thing you said there about the defensive coach, that's why I think mine might be bad here because I'm like, are they hiring a version of the coach they just had? but I had Aaron Glenn going to the Saints. He coached D.Bs there for five seasons. Obviously, him and Dan Campbell were there together.

I don't think the Saints want like real change where they're like, let's blow this up and, you know, hey, new GM and coach. No, they just like, Dennis Allen didn't work out. We need someone new. Who are we comfortable with here? Oh, Aaron Glenn, everybody likes him. He was here before. He comes from a winning organization. Come on down.

We know you. high approval rating from the players, like I said earlier. So that's probably a difference between him and Dennis Allen, who it felt like had worn out his welcome by the time that thing ended for them this season. So knows the organization. Organization knows him. Can sell that he came from a winning culture. Their defense has been very good this year at the Lions.

So he's done a phenomenal job this year with that Lions defense. And so I had Aaron Glenn either Jets or Saints, and I ultimately had him going to the Saints. I do think if there's one thing that I feel really good about that we've talked about, it's what you said about the Saints not really wanting real change. I think they're going to hire someone, whoever it is, they're going to hire someone who's already worked for them or played for them at one point or another. Yeah. Drew Brees, does he want to coach?

It certainly feels that way for sure. All right, there you go. Those are the five matches we have made. We'll see what we get right. We'll see what we get wrong. We'll see what other jobs open up and we'll have to do this exercise. maybe in a week or two when we look at those as well. Nora Principiati, thank you for joining me.

We'll take a break. We'll come back. Stephen Ruiz joins for QB Corner. All right, we are back on the Ringer NFL show. Our weekly QB Corner, Stephen Ruiz, welcome. Welcome on in. You had another theme. You got all the themes lined up here,

just trying to get to the finish line, I feel like. That's right. That's right. I've run out of quarterbacks to talk about. There are only so many quarterback talking points you can go through So at a certain point, you've got to go with the gimmicks. And we're at that point. What is it?

Week 14, week 15. We're at that point. We're at that point. So you suggested you wanted to do the quarterbacks from the 2020 draft. Are we still doing categories? Are we just talking about them? What are we doing? No, we don't need to do categories.

I think we could probably fit these guys into categories, but I didn't want to do that. So just a check-in? Just a check-in. Just a check-in with guys that have all signed half a billion-dollar contracts in the last couple of years. I wanted to do a check-in on. How are we feeling about those contracts a year, a year and a half, two years on? Okay.

Who are we starting with? Who do you got? Let's start in your neck of the woods. Let's start with Jalen Hertz. I'm about to do like a 90-minute Philly special on Jalen Hertz right after this. So let's go. I'm sure you're not tired of talking about this guy, especially this week, thanks to Brandon Graham and A.J. Brown. But no, I got done watching that tape about two hours.

hours ago. And I have to say, like, I've always been a little bit lower on Jalen Hertz and everybody else. This is far worse than the quarterback that we saw in 2022. And I think that's the biggest concern is that it's not like his play has regressed as things have regressed around him. I think you could kind of make the argument that things might be better around him now with Sequan Barclay back there. Like, obviously you lose Kelsey, which is a big piece of it. And there are parts of losing him that we can't even like quantify from the outside looking at. But the running game is as explosive as ever. The wide receivers are probably, I'm assuming Devante Smith is better now that he's in

what year five compared to year three or two, whatever it was back then. A.J. Brown's still doing A.J. Brown things. But I think the thing that kept this offense humming in 2022 was the fact that Jalen had been so, I think he was accurate when he was throwing underneath in Quick Game. And I think he was so ambitious as a passer when he was throwing outside the numbers. And the biggest problem right now isn't necessarily the quality. of his throws, although I do think that is a concern. He's just not making the throws, and I don't know how to quantify that.

And it's like getting really hard to rank him now. Because if I say like, oh, he's a bottom 10 quarterback, like, that's insane. And we've seen him go to a Super Bowl. We've seen him play very well. We've seen him be on an all pro team. But I think he's closer to bottom 10 than he is the top 10. And that has to be concerned with Eagles fans, especially with the level of investment in this passing game.

I mean, when you think about Hertz, A.J. Brown, DeVante, Smith, Dallas Goddard, and then you throw in the two tackles that they're paying, like all the main facets of this passing game, that's $180 million per year in a league where the salary cap is $225 million, and they had the lowest pass rate in the NFL. I think that's one of the bigger concerns is that not only that you're paying this guy $50 million, it's like everything else you're paying for it and not being able to use. I don't know where they go from here, but my question to you as like an Eagles guy is, do you think about like, you know, firing up the quarterback factory again and maybe drafting a quarterback in the end day two?

I mean, depending on how the end of this season goes, like I was just watching the Eagles film earlier today. And I can't help but just have the thought to what you alluded to that like how many quarterbacks would step into this situation and the passing game would be significantly better. And like, I don't know what the exact number is, but it's a pretty big number. I mean, you look at it. I think you made the, the biggest issue with. hurts now is just the ball not coming out of his hands. And like the turn downs. And so it's hard because like you said, you can look at statistics and say, all right, well, these are the throws. The ball is actually leaving his hand. The ball doesn't leave his hands on like a high percentage of throws. It

scrambles. It sacks. He's getting sacked on 10% of his dropbacks. And I'm telling you, I've watched every snap of this offensive line this year. This offensive line is awesome. Like the pockets he gets are pristine compared to other quarterbacks in the NFL, and he's holding on to the football, and he's holding on to the football. And the issue is, sometimes you can get away with that if then you're making plays downfield or making plays out of structure. That's not happening. Those plays are ending up in bad plays.

So I think his accuracy has been fine. I don't think that's been an issue. I think it's just like there are plays to be made on tape a lot of weeks, and specifically this last game against the Panthers was one of his worst games of the season, I thought. and he's not pulling the trigger on those throws that are there to be made. He's playing very cautious. He's indecisive. I don't know if it's the turnovers early in the season.

And they said, we can't have that. We're going to run the football and play good defense. That could be it. But the passing game this year is 17th in DVOA. That's the worst it's been in any year since he became the starter. And remember, his first year, he did not have AJ Brown. That offense ranked higher in passing efficiency than this offense does. You mentioned the supporting cast.

That is just kind of unacceptable. So yeah, there's a lot riding on kind of the final month of the season, I think, for Hertz and kind of what the Eagles do after this. And I hate how often we throw around the term, like, regression, especially with quarterbacks that are in their prime. Like, I think very rarely do quarterbacks get worse when they're in their prime? They get worse because, like, maybe they suffered a significant injury or they get older. And they're in their late 30s, and they're obviously losing some physical tools.

usually when a quarterback stats goes down or the production goes down, it's because the things around them have changed. They've lost like a receiver. They lost an offensive coordinator or something like that. Quarterbacks tend to get better the more they play because the more experience they get. But I don't know what else to call it. It has to be regression. And I wanted to ask you this because you obviously, you're watching Jalen Hurts.

Not even just one time a week. You're watching him multiple times per week. God bless your soul. He seems less flexible than he's ever been. Like watching him against the Panthers, it was like he was wearing like a Batman suit. Like a rubber Batman? You know how Batman can't, like, move his neck? Like, that's how it looks watching him.

And I think, like, beyond the ability to not throw the ball, or the reluctance to throw the ball is a better way to put it, his throwing talent, I think, has really regressed in the last couple of years. Like, it's taking him longer from point A to point B. I know we said this earlier in the year to, like, get the ball out. There was a play. I'm not sure who the wide receiver was. It might have been Dotson, but he threw, like, a little, like, comeback route, a little stop

route to, like, the right side. And when the receiver makes their break, there's like five yards of separation. And when Jalen starts his throwing motion from the point to the ball getting to the receiver, the quarterback makes up 10 yards of ground. In that split second, it should be like a two second process. No player should be able to make up 10 yards. So there's a lot of issues with him. It's like the way he's processing stuff, his actual throwing talent, the running ability,

which I think Eagles fans have been on since last year, like he looked. slower than he did when he first got into the league. It's one of the most bizarre things I've ever seen. I've never seen a quarterback kind of progressed like this at this point in their career in their mid to late 20s with no significant injury. I know we had the shoulder injury a couple of years ago, but there's no way that affected this many aspects of his game. So I don't know what the solution is to this problem, but I think it is going to be a problem or a question in the offseason. Yeah, no, it's from the time he decides to make a throw to win the ball. actually gets there is a long time. And he's not an anticipation thrower. So like that makes it even

worse where you have those plays where like the guide, that's why some of these wide receivers are probably frustrated. They're open. And then by the time the ball gets there, it turns into an incompletion. So he still gives you value as a scrambler. I think he's got the highest DPA on scrambles. But it's like, is that that that's not sustainable over. That's not, you know, what you want to be the first thing you talk about with the quarterback. He obviously gives them an answer in short yardage. That's very valuable. And kind of on the inside run. the counters, those things. He's been good at those.

But yeah, when he gets out to the edge, he's certainly not an elusive scramble. So we'll see what this looks like over the next three or four weeks and in the playoffs. My one question for you, before we move on, because my theme,

the other three quarterbacks fit a theme. And I think, like, all three of these quarterbacks have improved in some major way. Like, in the way that we wanted to see them improve this year, like, to Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert.

Jalen Hurt hasn't. But asking an Eagles fans, if you could, like, pick one thing to fix, like, whether it's the running ability, make him a little bit faster, the pocket presence or lack thereof, or the reluctance to throw the ball, like, which part you think needs to be solved to get him back to where he was? Because, like, he's had some of these issues in the past, even when he was an all pro, but they were never this bad.

So, and when you put them all together, it turns into like a bottom 10 quarterback. I think they would say the turn downs probably because it's kind of what you and I remember you and I talking about this earlier in the season when they were playing well, like their formula of run the ball, shots downfield defense. Again, they've won nine games in a row. Like, that can win you a lot of games. In 2022, it wasn't that different from that very formula.

But when you're not making those throws downfield, like he's throwing the ball downfield less than he ever has in his career. And you watch the second play of that game from last week. And AJ Brown's wide open downfield. It's a simple concept. It's where the ball is supposed to go. And he doesn't throw it. I don't know if the cautiousness has been coached into him again because of the

turnovers. would probably be the biggest thing. Like he's never going to be, you know, I think like he's not going to be, we'll talk about Joe Burrow. Like he's not going to be Joe Burrow as a passer. But if you can hit those shots downfield,

he's had that downfield accuracy before with the supporting cast, with Sequin Barkley, with the O line, with the defense that may be able to get you to a Super Bowl this season. But if you don't have that, it's just,

it's very tough to watch. All right. Again, Ringers Philly Special. We're going to be doing like 90 minutes on this talking about Kellyn Moore. Jalen Hertz, AJ Brown's comments, all of that.

So if you want more Eagles talk, check that out. All right, who's next? All right, let's talk about two. I think does deserve credit for filling in one of the major gaps in his game this year.

And that's, you know, what happens when a play breaks down, extending plays, working deep into plays. And I think if you look at his numbers, he has improved. I don't think there's any denying that. He was usually,

like, you could usually split it 2.5 seconds. If he started before that, he has one of the best EPA averages the best efficiencies in the NFL. After 2.5 seconds, he is below average to mediocre. I think this year he's gotten closer to above average. He's still not like Josh Allen, Kyler Murray type stuff, but it's a positive EPA

and a positive success rate compared to the league average. But I do think there is still a lot of room to grow. And when you really delve into the numbers this year, the after 2.5 second play has improved a fair amount, but not to the point where you could put him in like a top 10 conversation at this point, in my opinion, like for instance, after 2.5 seconds, six big time throws the seven turnover worthy plays according to pro football focus. So I do think there's another area for him to improve. But the fact that Tua is like improving from year to year, like last year, he kind of figured

out the learning how to fall thing this year. He's getting a little faster. He is working deeper into progressions. But I think in order for him to take the next step, it's going to be, he can't just keep doing this one bit where I'm going to get rid of the ball quickly. I'm going to anticipate these throws and that's going to power the offense because we've seen what happens when defenses take that away. I think in order for him to take this next step, it's not necessarily the mobility and it's not necessarily extending plays to get to a checkdown. I think he has to

start making these deep plays or these deep throws deeper into a progression and still not seeing it. Still not seeing it yet. So I'm not totally bought in on the two has like rounded out his game and he's MVP candidate now and the dolphins can't survive without him. I do think we've seen him adjust, which is encouraging, but there are still very clear weaknesses in his game, even after this last game against the Jets, where I think he became the only the only quarterback in NFL history, three straight games, at least 40 attempts, zero interceptions and multiple touchdown passes. So he is getting better in that regard, but I still need to see a little more on tape. Yet the numbers are kind of wild until when I was prepping for this segment. He's first

in success rate. He's second in EPA per pass play. He's first an adjusted completion percentage, which that takes into account drops. I was looking at just third and fourth down, you know, like the obvious past stuff. He's third and EPA per dropback on third and fourth down. Overall, he's eighth in turnover worthy play percentage, like eighth being good, one being the best there. So the system is working like well for him and Mike McDaniel. But it is this sort of a narrative thing. Like, until it's, what are you doing against, against good teams, that narrative has been accurate, cold weather, December, all those things.

Like, I hate to be that, you know, 1990s type football analyst, but it's actually true for the Dolphins. So, yeah, I don't really know what to make of it. I would say, if you told me, like, this was how he was going to perform this year, I would say, wow, he's overachieved my expectations for him. I still don't know exactly where that leaves you. Like, if they had the Eagles defense. this year, then are they a legit contender?

You know what I mean? So it's sort of hard to separate some of those things with the Dolphins. I do wonder what Tua would look like if you put him in like an equally talented offense, but the scheme was a little different because it is very unique. Like even Dolphins fans can't deny the fact that nobody else runs their offense like this and you probably need two speed burners, maybe two of the fastest receivers in NFL history and Jalen Waddle and Tyree Kill to operate an offense like this because most receivers can't get downfield in 2.5 seconds.

And if you're not throwing downfield, then you're a very easy defense or offense to defend. But yeah, see, this is my thing with these quarterbacks where that people get on me about. They just, you know, do the same thing over and over again. And they're very good at it. But whenever they're forced to do something else, that's when you start to see the cracks.

And I think, too, is right up there. And I'm not willing to move on for my priors just yet, even though, I mean, it's hard to argue against the fact that he is valuable to this offense at this point. Yeah. Unfortunately, the point of comparison. is Skyler Thompson, though. I want to see Mac Jones in this offense.

Yeah, I don't like that. Yeah, I don't like those. It's like if a team has a bad backup, and then the backup comes in and doesn't play well, and you think that makes the starter more valuable. It's like, that's sort of weird. That's not who you really should be. I always like being like,

who is a league average quarterback, or, you know, how would other quarterbacks look in this scheme? But you're right, that the fit between what he does and what they're doing now seems to be a very good fit. his average pass is going 5.6 yards past the line of scrimmage. That's the lowest in the NFL. So they've changed what they've done. It's been efficient for the most part this year.

But I don't know. Like no one takes them seriously in a big spot against a good team. So I don't know how to add all that up. I would say it's better than I anticipated. He's a tough quarterback to talk about. I don't know. It's hard to talk about him without coming off as someone who's like kind of downgrading him. But you also have to really embellish him to prop him up to be a top 10 quarterback.

Like even the accuracy. accuracy stuff. I do think he's like fairly accurate, especially on underneath stuff. But after 2.5 seconds, his completion is adjusted completion percentage. So this takes away drops, batted passes,

throwaways, spikes, all that stuff, is the worst among the quarterbacks in this class. And the only quarterback that's, that's worst that was drafted in this class, technically is Tyler Huntley, who also started for the dolphins. So I mean, even the accuracy stuff and the anticipation stuff

when he's like throwing it, even when like the defense takes away the route he's strong. trying to throw, that makes me think he's guessing rather than anticipating. So one of the most bizarre quarterbacks to kind of evaluate. But I do think, like, it's easier to appreciate him now that we've seen the Dolphins offense with one of those bad quarterbacks. I just don't want to go too far in appreciating him.

Yeah, I agree. All right, who's next? Who do you got? Burrow or Herbert? Who are we going? Let's talk about Joe Burrow, who. Okay. I think he's made the biggest strides out of any of these quarterbacks right now.

and I think you can make the argument that he's the most improve of the top 10 quarterbacks right now. And I'm just talking about like a consensus top 10. You could throw Jared golf in that top 10. I would put like a Gino at the bottom of that. I know most people wouldn't. His sack mitigation and his pressure mitigation, especially on Monday night against Micah Parsons with Michael Parsons just, you know, terrorizing that Bengals offensive line.

That really is the piece, the missing piece before this year. And I think a lot of people gave him credit for having that pocket moving and that pocket management. Just because when he does pull it off, when he does the pocket move and stuff, he looks like Tom Brady. He looks like Tom Brady more than any other quarterback in this league. But like if you look at the stats, the pressure to sack stuff was always bad with with, with the pressure that he was charged with compared to the offensive line was

always bad, always near the bottom of the league. And I don't know how it happened, but he just kind of figured it out this year. And like he was always talking about, oh, I take my sacks on third down. I don't take them on first and second down, which wasn't true, by the way. if you looked up, he was taking sacks every down. But now this year it's true. And I honestly think I'm ready to put him in this elite quarterback conversation. I always shied away from it because he just didn't have the tools the other guys have.

And I don't think the strength in his game outweigh the strengths in those other players games. Like I thought, yeah, he's a great processor and he's accurate. But guess who else is a great processor and who's accurate? Patrick Mahomes. Patrick Mahomes does all that stuff at a high level too. He just does all this other stuff. But yeah, Joe Burrow has taken a step for me. And while I'm not one of those people that are like, oh, he deserves a MVP vote,

I do want to see him with a different coach. And I want to see him in a different offense. And I wonder what that would look like. And like it might be harder to separate him from those other top guys. If you do put him in an offense that allows him to do, I don't want to say less of the heavy lifting, because I don't think you're getting the most out of Joe Burrow if you're not letting him run the show like this. But just ease the burden off him. I think he wants the burden, but like he's going to crack under this pressure eventually.

The fact that he hasn't over the last month is remarkable to me. But yeah, Joe Burrow, thumbs up. He probably got the thumbs up from Stephen Hurries. It's been three years. He's kind of too good to get a coach fired, I think. Yeah, that's his problem, right? It's, I don't know. Like, I would be surprised if they made a coaching change after this season,

even though they're not going to make the playoffs. There are things they can hang their hat on, especially maybe a different organization. would be more inclined to. But yeah, I don't know what to make of it. Like even the scheme and the coaching, like you said, it does feel like there's definitely a part of it. That's probably him saying, this is what I want to do.

This is how I want to do it. You know, so if another coach came in and said, like it would have to be a coach who gets through to him. Almost like when Aaron Rogers and Matt LaFleur had that thing. And finally LaFleur is like, please, can you do some of the things that I want to, I'm telling you. Yeah, I'm telling you. It's going to help you.

And he's like, all right, fine. You know, and then he wins two MVP's. there when he mixes it up. Maybe it's something like that. But yeah, I think he's been awesome this year. We've talked about him a lot. I feel like third in success rate, seventh and EPA per pass play, top five when pressured, sixth on third and fourth down, third and turnover worthy play percentage.

So I just think he's had an awesome season. I definitely had him on my top five MVP ballot when I did the midseason thing. Now I don't know if I'm going to be allowed to get how bad the team is good. I was still holding out hope at that point that maybe they would make a playoff run. Now I don't know that I still can. But I do like that he said the thing about, you know, T. What did he say that he expects a contract to get done with T? Like, Joe, put the pressure on ownership.

They can afford it. It's like you can have two wide receivers getting paid a lot of money. And guess what? If you have those two guys who are in their mid to late 20s who you have chemistry with, like you don't have to invest in that position for the next five or six years. And that's very important. Like the passing game is what you need. I know this year has been the exception where the passing game's good and the other stuff hasn't been good.

And that's why you're not making the playoffs. But if that other stuff just gets up to like competent, you're actually going to have a Super Bowl contender with that. So Bengals fans put the pressure on. Don't listen to the excuses of, oh, we can only have so much. No, you actually can. Go look at the Eagles. Go look at other teams. You can pay elite players who, again, who are not old.

These guys are in their mid-20s. You drafted them. T. Higgins, by all count, is like an awesome teammate. He gets along well with the quarterback. Don't screw that up and create a hole on your roster that then you have to fill next year. I don't think they should be taking the risk of seeing what this looks like, this offense, this style of offense, without those two star receivers. I know they've done well when one of them's been out or, like, at least this year.

Like, if you look at years past, if all three of them are not on the field, like Burroughs numbers aren't that great, but this year he's kind of over. come that. We've seen Higgins miss some time. I think we've seen Chase miss some time too. But the thing those two to provide for Burrow is like they're basically an answer key to the test because defenses have to adjust for those guys. Like we saw what did Mike Tomlin say last week when they played the Steelers? He called T. Higgins basically Shaq. Like when we're playing Shaq, we're going to use our fouls. Like you have to change up your defense or you're going to get killed by them. And I think for a quarterback who's so who relied, and I don't want to say relies because relies

makes it seem like a crutch. A quarterback who uses his pre-snap reads so much, I think having those two guys out there are more important than anything that would show up in the numbers. Yeah, I agree. All right. And finally, your boy, Justin Herbert, we'll finish off with him.

All right, I'm going to ask a question. No, I don't know how to approach you. Don't put me in trouble. I like Herbert. I just don't go over the top. All right, what's the question? I want someone to explain to me why we shouldn't be including him

in the Lamar, Allen, Mahomes. triumvirate, if you want to call it that. I can go back to 90s football analyst guy. Because you have to, right? You have to. No, you don't have to. There is, I mean, the statistical, there is, like, the statistical profile is not great this year for Justin Herbert. That's fair. If you go by the stats that we generally go, he's 29th in dropback success rate. He's 19th in EPA per pass play. He's 21st when pressured. His pressure to sack rate has

actually been, and now, again, I'm not saying that that tells you everything, but he's 30th out of 34 quarterbacks in pressure to sacrate this year. Now, I'm with you. I think he's played very well. And I'm looking forward to them building this team in the offseason and seeing what this looks like. So I have been a Herbert guy for a long time. But I think that would be the nerd case. And then the 90s football analyst case would be, give me a break. The guy hasn't played in the second weekend. Oh, he's played in the second. Yeah, he's never played in the second weekend of the playoffs. And he's been in the league for what? 20, 21, 22, five years now. So that would be the other case, no team success there. That's obviously not something I generally,

you know, lean on. I still think he's good. I think he's going to have his moment. I don't think he's had his moment yet, but I think he's going to have his moment. So I think that would be the case. Yeah, so what I wanted to get at is like, I think one of the valid criticisms criticisms of him coming into this year was like the out of structure stuff. Oh, he's a robot. He checks it down too often. But it's safe to say that he stopped doing that. Like if you watch and play, he scrambles a lot. He's scrambling a lot this year. He's obviously. obviously, like, getting fired up to after plays. I know that's not part of it, but it kind of is.

It kind of seems to be part of it. It's gotten something out of him this year. Yeah, yeah. So my question is, like, what's next for him? Like, is it just winning? Like, what is the thing that he can do next where we could start including him with those guys? And if it is just winning and it's not individual skill set, then we should be talking about this guy like an MVP candidate at this point. Well, the skill set is there.

I think, like I said with some of those. The passing game is still not good. So it's like hard. Now, I know you would say, well, he's getting the most out of what's there with the passing game. And I don't necessarily disagree with that. But those aren't the guys who we like, you kind of have to prove it that you are leading a top shelf passing offense. And I think they've only been that once since he's been there. They've probably finished in like the top.

Now, again, I'm not saying that's because of him. I understand. But at some point, you have to show that to be mentioned with the top guys. Because all of them, Mahomes, Lamar, Josh Allen, they've all shown like not just one. one year, but multiple years that we are leading a top level passing offense here. So that just has to happen before you can get in the conversation with those guys, in my opinion. It could happen as soon as next year if they add a wide receiver, a couple interior linemen, whatever else you think they need, although the Greg Roman thing is kind of hanging over this next phase of his career

still. I'm going to soft launch a take, which is kind of related to this. But I feel like your point is valid because I think like you can look at Lamar Jackson and he he hasn't he he played for Greg Roman my enemy and they had a great offense and they had they had a bad receiving court too like he wasn't throwing a will disley on third down but like who was his receiver who was his receiver who was his MVP year I forget who was some Willie Sneed I think yeah that's right yeah I covered some of those games yeah Willie Sneed was a go-to guy for him and I think Allen is in that same category where like no matter what you do this is a top 10 offense But the quarterback that, like, obviously is maybe the best quarterback ever,

I don't think Mahomes is necessarily that kind of guy. And I do wonder if that, like, that's the prism we're looking at it. I disagree, really? I mean, I look at these last two years and go, how is he doing that with this group? Well, yeah, but he has Andy Reid and he has, like, the best interior offensive line. I know, but you've been ripping Andy Reid. That's a good point. That's a good point.

But no, those guys have a good interior offensive line, but it's, I mean, I don't know. I think most guys you put into that. group and I think it's a I don't even think this has been my homes his best year I actually think last year if you look at it what he did with that group was really really really impressive and even what he's done this year is impressive I mean when we look at the third down stuff and it's just like all right go make go make sure you something good happens here he does that like I think he's had to do a lot of that these last two years not prior to that when you had Kelsey and hill it was just like this is a machine and your quarterback's awesome and it looks pretty this has been kind of

of a grind-it-out, do something with this group of players type two-year run from Mahomes. But I think if you put Allen or Lamar into this offense, I think it's a better offense. I don't know if it's an offense that will win the Super Bowl, but I think statistically, like all those numbers you like to cite. You think so. Really? Like with the running game, I think the running game would be fixed if you put Lamar in there. And then the running game would make things easier in the passing game and there would be play

action opportunities. I just don't know how to calibrate that. And I think that's always like a hard thing to calibrate with those two quarterbacks specifically Allen and Lamar, which is why I have to give them 120 grades for their creativity grade on the rankings. But yeah, it's an interesting question. I don't think they'd be winning more, though. I put probably Mahomes, Lamar, and Josh Allen in the tier where I'm comfortable at. It doesn't matter right now what you put around them.

Like the Chiefs are ninth in offensive DVOA for all the... I don't know. I just look at that group and I'm like, you are dragging. They started like seven different left tackles who he's throwing to. I don't know. I still think those three probably belong in that one category. Herbert had, you know, I mean, he had some player. He had the one year where their offense was very good and their defense was a disaster.

So he's done it once. But, you know, I just want these guys. It frustrates me because I want that. I'm like, no, why don't make it hard on them? Just like give them better players. And then we could see that at the peak of their powers. I dropped this take on Simmons podcast. Like the reason why we think that there's like a, I don't know, even know what to call it,

a lull in quarterback development is because we have all these great quarterbacks and these flawed offenses. And we have all these flawed quarterbacks and these great offenses. We need a switch. We need to switch Joe Burrow and Jalen Hertz or Justin Herbert and Jalen Hertz. And he put one of those quarterbacks in that offense. I mean, they might score 50 points a game. I'm not even exaggerating when you watch the film. So one last thing, I want to get you in trouble.

I want you to rank these quarterbacks on how you feel. You can look at the contracts, too, if you want. They're basically the same contracts across the board. What is this? Who I want going forward? Who I want this? What's the context? I'm just trying to get you to pick Tua over Jalen Hertz and then have to go on the

Philly special. I don't think I would. Really still. Yeah. If you're talking about as a pure passer, yes. But I would have way more, I would have more concerns about the injury stuff. with Tua and also what Hertz brings in the run game is, again, that's not like the number one thing you look for in a quarterback,

but it definitely brings value to the offense. So yeah, I'm not going to say that. You can't turn down those two-yard zone reedkeepers, man. Those are just so too valuable, you know? No, but I think I was with you like two weeks ago, but I don't know. I'm switching it. It sounds crazy to even me because I'm usually a guy that's like,

I'll take the physical talent, I'll figure out the rest, but I think I might be team two. it now. I honestly didn't care about your answer about like Herbert or Burr. You just wanted that. Team Tua, you heard it here. Ruiz's team toa Dolphins fans. You can stop yelling at him. He loves your boy. All right. You can check out Ruiz's quarterback rankings on the newly redesigned ringer.com. Check those out. Ruiz and I will be back with Deonté later this week talking about week 15 in the NFL. Thanks to Nora. Thanks to Ruiz. Thanks to Troy Farkas for producing additional production supervision by Connor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgo.

Paul. We'll talk to you next time on the Ringer NFL show.