The Ringer NFL Show - Predicting NFC Win Totals

Episode Date: July 6, 2021

Kevin is joined by The Ringer’s Danny Kelly and Steven Ruiz of USA Today’s For the Win to pick the over/under on each NFC team's projected win total. Host: Kevin Clark Guest: Danny Kelly and Steven Ruiz Production Assistant: Isaiah Blakely Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Flying Coach is back for a second season. Peter Schrager and Rams head coach Sean McVeigh are joined by guests from around the sports and entertainment world. They're discussing the latest NFL news, telling stories from their careers, and breaking down games from their unique perspectives. Check out Flying Coach Season 2 on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It is the Ringr-Refel Show, part of the Ring and a podcast network. I'm Kevin Carr, joined today by Danny Kelly and a newcomer to the Ring around NFL show universe. Stephen Norwees of USA Today's for the win. What's going on, Stephen?

I'm going to be honest with you, when you've DMed me, I think it was last week about coming on here. You said, you want to do the... Slid in. You did. You said, do you want to be on the pod with me and D.K. And I was like, for some dumb reason, I was like, oh, D.K. Metcalf's going to... I think he was on the show newsday. It was a three-man weave. And then, sorry to the...

Matt-Caf canceled. And Danny Kelly was sliding in. No, my plan is going to be just treat Danny like he is. D.K. Metcalfe. Like, what about that route you ran against Jaylon ran back in Week 17? Oh, that's great. Like the, uh, the Allie G. bit where he has all these questions for Gore Vidal that are actually for Vidal Sassoon. That's great. Shampoo brand.

Just keep just keep rolling with it and we're going to be fine. So yeah, it is Danny Kelly, not D.K. MacGap. Although, DK. MacGF has been on this podcast and on Soul Newsday. We're going to have, it's the sequel to what we did a couple of weeks ago. Stephen, our guest on the AFC overunders was Doug Kide, who was in a six flags parking lot while he spoke. And so the fact that you're indoors in a home with the computers, already an upgrade, even though we love Doug. The situation is, I mean, you could, you could at some point, I guess, go into a six-slice

parking lot over the course of the next hour, but I think you're going to stay indoors. No, this is actually the King's Dominion back office that I'm in right now. That was the only other amusement park I could pull off the top of my head. Yeah, yeah. No, I know. I know. All right. So it's NFC over-unders. It's really straightforward. We got some really, Stephen, you're a Panthers fan. Is that correct? Unfortunately, yes. So I can't wait to go through that.

That's part of the reason we had you on. Danny Kelly's upset that the Packers are off the board because Varon Rogers, but we're going to go through all of these different possibilities. It's going to be really fun. We will start with the NFC East. And we're going alphabetical, which means we will start with the Dallas Cowboys. Stephen Ruiz, 9.5 over under. I'm going to go under, and I have some analytics for you.

I actually looked this up. I did some prep work for the spot. They've gone under 12 out of the, the last 19 years. In other, in other circumstances, I would think that doesn't matter because who cares what happened in the past. But with the Cowboys, I think it does matter because it speaks to the value Vegas puts on these lines because they know Cowboys fans are going to bet on the Cowboys. So I'm going to take under, I think it's 9.5. And my biggest reason is why do we think Dan Quinn is going to make this defense so much better? And that's the thing, right? So that's the question.

That's the only question because we know what Dak Prescott is. Obviously, the offensive line, it's not what it was a handful of years ago, whatever. But we know. We know. there's at least a floor with the offense, okay, they're going to be pretty good. I mean, I think we all remember that Dak Prescott was still in the top 10 and passing yards well after he was at ruled out for the year. I mean,

he can put up volume, badsy. There is at least a core competency there. The defense is the question. That's why they rearrange their entire draft to fill these holes. Danny, I want to ask you, between Micah Parsons, Kelvin Joseph,

they're third round guys, Conti Gols and whomever. Are there guys where you say, okay, this is, these guys are enough to, to make this defense into a double-digit win defense? I don't know. I personally don't think that they're going to go from being horrific to average or above average. I think they might be slightly better than they were last year.

But I'm kind of with Steven on this one. I just don't know if they're going to be good enough to, to realistically change the fortunes of the Cowboys. look at what the Cowboys did early on in the season. Like they were putting up absurdly good offense, like 500, 600-yard games. Yeah. And it still wasn't good enough.

And so, like, I guess you have to ask, is this team going to, number one, be that good on offense again? I think it'll be really good on offense again, but I don't even, are they going to be that good? We'll see there could be some regression there on offense. And then, like, the defense, I think they'll slightly be better. But I'm also going to lean in under. When I saw the nine and a half over under, I thought,

it felt a little high. I thought nine games might be more realistic, if that. And so, yeah, maybe it is like just this national thing where people are more bullish on the Cowboys every year than other teams for just the fact that they're the Cowboys. But yeah, I'm going under, and I don't think the defense is going to be significantly better. I don't even know if it'll be average. I think long run, you know, guys like Trvon Diggs, I think Calvin Joseph has a ton of talent. so is Michael Parsons, but I don't know if necessarily

they're going to be significantly better or impactful this year. So I'm still pretty aware about this defense. Okay, so I'm with Stephen in this regard that there's a lot of casual fans who flood into Vegas or now any of these apps and bet on the Cowboys because they like

betting on the Cowboys, same as many other teams across sports. I think that Dan Quinn, well not, I mean, no one's going to confuse him with 1985 Buddy Ryan here. but Dan Quinn is a significantly better defensive coach than Mike Nolan. I think Mike Nolan was like historically within the era of sort of modern football was really, really bad and not equipped to hold many jobs across the NFL, let alone

defensive coordinator for a team that had high expectations. So I actually think there's going to be some addition by subtraction. I also think, you know, it is funny because I was actually just reading Seth Galena's college football preview guide. It's really, really good. but I went to Miami and he ripped the Miami secondary. And there's no evidence that the Miami secondaries can be any better than it was last year. And so, but just as a pure fan, I was like, oh, he doesn't know the talent they've got on the defense.

And I was like, oh, wait, I'm doing the thing now that I make fun of, which is there's no evidence that they're going to get better. But it feels like they're going to get better because there's some talent there. There's a Michael Parsons. They've invested in it. And so I think with the offense, I actually disagree in it. I do think they can be that good on offense. I do think they can be good enough for to carry. a mediocre defense.

And mediocre is the exact word they need to be. I think they can get to 10 wins with a C defense. And that's why I think it's going to be slightly over. All right. Let's move on. New York Giants 7. Danny Kelly. So I don't know if you listen to the AFC one, Stephen,

but Danny Kelly kept saying, oh, I wish I could say push, which is the entire reason Vegas sets these lines. It just means they're good at setting these lines. I said it one time, I think. I think you said it. 16 times, I think is what you said. Danny Kelly, New York Giants 7.

I'm going under. I don't think the Giants are going to be very good. I think that it all depends on kind of what Daniel Jones does this year. If he takes a big leap, then, yeah, they'll win more than seven games. Do I think that's very likely? Not really. I mean, I don't know. I'm still just kind of like wondering, you know, how this is all going to work together.

I think their defense will probably be solid. But if you look at what Daniel Jones did last year, man, just like turnovers, turnovers, it was just so problematic. I want to say he threw like 12, what was like 12 touchdowns in 16 games or something ridiculous. Like it was it was just really, really bad what they did offensively. I know that they've added to that group and they're really trying to make a push on that side of the ball.

But I don't know. It's just one of those things where this could end up being like a Carson Wet situation where you keep expecting it to make a big jump and then it just doesn't ever happen. So I'm going with what I think are, it's better odds that Daniel Jones is just not going to be an elite quarterback. If he does turn out to be really good

and has like that Josh Allen-esque jump, then I'll eat my words. But I think it's more likely not going to happen. I do enjoy the idea of a Carson-Went situation happening without any of the good parts. Oh, he was Carson-Wentz, except there was never actually any evidence. There was never an MVP.

thing that happened. My question was going to be, what does a Daniel Jones leap look like? Yeah, that's a great question. That is a great question. The Daniel Jones leave. So actually now I'm looking it up. He had 11 touchdown passes in 14 games. So like 17 touchdowns is.

And not fumbling every time he gets sacked. Yeah, no, I think that that really is the deal. It's cutting down on turnovers because he had 10 interceptions and then cutting down on fumbles. He's just incredibly fumble prone. I think he's got like physical talent, obviously.

And we were having, I think, similar, like, conversations about Josh Allen prior to last year about how physically gifted guy, you know, he's big, he's got a good arm, he can run, just incredibly insanely inaccurate. That's never going to change. You know, we could never get over that. And then all of a sudden he did. He got, like, really accurate. I don't know where the hell that came from.

That's very, very rare. He's certainly the outlier. So again, that's why I'm like basically saying, I think it's a lot of, I think it's a it is in the realm of possibility that Daniel Jones turns into a better quarterback than we think he is right now. But I think it's more likely the odds are that he's not going to. I tend to agree with that. I'm actually going over on this. I think they win eight games this year. I think the Giants are okay. I actually like Joe Judge. I think he showed some positive development going forward. I just don't think this roster is very talented. Stephen, who's the best

player on the Giants? Is it a Sequin Barkley? It's probably him, but he's a running back. James Bradbury maybe. Yeah, I was thinking that. Maybe he's up there. Yeah. I think I'm going to go over and I'm like pessimistic on Daniel Jones. And more specifically,

I'm pessimistic about his relationship with Jason Garrett as offense coordinator, not like their personal relationship. Just those two together is like sitcom level funny, odd couple. Because Jason Garrett, I think he comes from the air core yel tree.

So like you want deeper drops, hold the ball, get the ball downfield. The longer Daniel Jones holds the ball, the worst things happen. You don't want Daniel Jones holding the ball more than like two or three seconds. So I think that's an issue.

The draft pick of Cadarius, Tony, is just hilarious to me. Like Jason Garrett getting the most out of this ultra-modern, wide receiver, slot hybrid, whatever you want to call him, all the buzzwords. And I just don't know how that works. If he's playing like two tight ends

and like eye form every other down. So you put, put all this together. I think the Deven's going to be solid. But the offense, and that's what matters. The offense has to be good. I don't see it even being good. So I don't know why I'm going over. What was it? Seven wins. But I think they're as good as they were last year. And that was eight and eight eight nine team. I got to get used to the new records. But yeah, eight wins. We're all going to that. A hundred percent. I feel I'm with you. And then I'm picking over and I don't know why I'm doing it. It's just like the most anti-analytic feeling I've ever had.

It's like, yeah, that seems like an eight-win team. But I think we're in agreement on that. All right, Philadelphia Eagles 6.5. So we have no editorial stance as a podcast on the Eagles because Danny was hyping up Jalen Hertz a couple weeks ago. I bought into it. And then we had George Chahury and Eric Eager on two weeks ago and their favorite bet of the years, Eagles with the worst record in the league.

So we're all over the place on the Eagles. So we now have to make a stand. We'll start with you, Stephen. Eagle 6.5. This team stinks. I'm going to make a strong stand. No, I like Jalen Hertz. Like the idea of Jalen Hertz.

I just don't know how it's going to look in this offense in year one with a new coach. And I kind of had to keep reminding myself that they have new coach. Like in my mind, like Doug Peterson is still there just chilling just calling offense. But yeah, they have new coach. Nick Siriani is now the play caller under Doug Peterson. Right. That's what it feels like. I looked at the depth chart earlier today.

And I was like trying to come up with a scenario. area in my mind in which this works. And I just couldn't come up with it. Like maybe the defensive line like turns it back to 2017. They just sack everyone. But if that doesn't happen, the defense is going to be a disaster, I think. And they have a first year defensive coordinator two, first year offensive play caller. I just, how does this work?

How does this work out? I'm with you. Danny. So I'm going over. Yes. Yes. Sticking to my guns, I guess. But I definitely, so like, tell us how it works.

It maybe even I don't know how it works. Maybe it's just because I, went under on the first two teams. Like someone has to win games in this division or whatever, but... Do they? I feel like the NFCE has proven that no, no one has to win games. So here's a couple of reasons. Number one, if you're looking at, I'm looking at sharp football stats for the 2021 strength

of schedule based on forecast of win totals from Vegas. And the Eagles have the third easiest schedule in the NFL. Now, part of that is probably because they're playing in this division. But, you know, generally speaking, I just think. that would help things. And then I just think everything that could have gone wrong for the Eagles last year did. Like they had, you know, there was clashing in the front office and the coaching staff, the quarterback situation. Carson Wentz was as bad as you can get at quarterback in every way pretty much. Jalen Hertz came into a situation where, you know, he didn't have any good receivers.

His offensive line was completely banged up. You know, there, again, like the, there was just nothing going right. So I think that if they get their offensive line back and things and they can managed to stay a little bit more healthy, which is always a big question. But if they can do that, if they can get their offense going a little bit under hurts, I think he can light a like a fire under them a little bit. And I think that will help a lot. Do I think this is a really good team? No, but I think that I think they can get over six wins.

I think this is a seven and ten team. Are we sure the front office and coaching staff clashing is going to end? I mean, didn't they pick Siriani, right? fix you. I know. I know that, but I'm just saying maybe it's just, we've read some things. Maybe it's just, maybe there's some just problems there that are going to take more than a couple of months to

overcome. There are obstacles there. I'm going under, I agree, this team stinks. Great, great phrasing, Stephen. I just don't see a lot of roster out there. I don't see a lot of rush town there. They have some guys, like you said, especially on the defensive line on the defense, they could

possibly throw it back. And other than that, I just don't like where they're at. And I think it's one of the most interesting falls from Grace, from having the most talented roster in football four years ago to now. And, you know, I think there's just, there's a lot of lessons to be learned there. And I think that's a different podcast and what happened to the Eagles.

But it is, there's a lot of work to do. Football team, 8.5. Stephen Ruiz. Ooh, I'm going, I'm going over. And I'm not like the Ryan Fitzpatrick believer by any means compared to like the rest of the internet. But I just look at the deep. defense, the defensive line in particular, and I think this improvement to the secondary,

and I don't see how this defense doesn't finish top five. And top five in this division, I think, is enough if the offense is just okay. And comparing them to what they were last year with Dwayne Haskins and quarterback starting week one, I think they're going to be okay. Danny. Yeah, I'm going over. So, like, exactly what Steven said. It's the defense gives them an incredible foundation.

I think it's going to be one of the best defenses in the NFL. And their offense, I think, could take a pretty significant jump. I mean, you're going from really, like, one of the least dynamic offenses in the NFL last year in terms of, like, the ability to push the ball down field. You know, Terry McLaurin, I think, is a very good receiver. I think he could be a guy that takes a jump this year with Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing to him. Like, Fitzpatrick has always been much more aggressive, throw the ball down the field, like is averaged up the target, all that. I think that Curtis Samuel, you know, maybe not a. but he's definitely gives them something that they didn't have at the like the number two spot last year at receiver.

Um, I think we could see a jump from Antonio Gibson to get more involved in the passing game. He's an explosive player. You know, overall just, I think they're really solid. And I think as long as, as as as Fitzpatrick doesn't sort of just melt down and I mean, we've seen him throw a lot like, we've seen it, we've seen a melt down. We've seen some pretty bad like picks over this career. But I think as long as he doesn't just push like too hard and sort of melt down, and sort of melt down or whatever,

just do what he does, then I think this will be a pretty good team. So I'm going over. I remember being in a press comments a few years ago and someone said, you know, Ryan, you've thrown five interceptions in the game. He said, excuse me, no, six. So at least got a sense of humor about it.

I see, and listen, offense is always more consistent than defense. Don't tweet at me. But I see the Washington defense in the front seven, almost in the same way I see the Cowboys offense. because we know they're going to be good. And we know the investments that they've made. We know there's a floor because of it.

So then it comes down to how well the other side of the ball can do. And I'm of the theory that actually there's more evidence of the Washington football team offense is going to be good than the Cowboys defense is going to be good. And so I'm going over here. I think it's going to be really close just because of the quarterback situation and the infrastructure. I think it's really close to wins its division.

But I think football team and Dallas are both over. All right, NFC South. This is a mess of a division. And we're going to be all over the map here because there's just so many changes and so many, the states of all these franchises are in such different places. We're sorry with Atlanta Falcons 7.5. Stephen. I'm going to go over.

Okay. And that's even after the Julio Jones trade. I think the Falcons are the team that we expect the Cowboys to be in terms of bounce back ability. Like, I feel like the last two years, people have kind of just assumed that, It's been the defense holding them back in the offense with Matt Ryan and Julio Jones and Ridley has been good. Look at their roster, but the defense by DVOA has been better the last two years in the offense. That's how bad Dirk Cutter was at calling plays. And they've replaced him with maybe one of the best play callers in the league.

It's hard to say after two years. But I think Arthur Smith could have that type of effect even without Julio Jones with Ridley and Pitts now. And then the defense with Dean Peas coming in, he was the architect of that Titans defense that went on that playoff run. and I think he had a big role in that. You bring him in. I know the debt chart doesn't look good on that side of the ball, but he's a guy that I think his exes and O's are good enough to make up for that. And their defense could be like 16th in the league.

That's like around what it was last year. So if the offense is fine and the defense is fine, I think team can win eight games. Who would you rather have? If you're a GM, Arthur Smith is your coach in a vacuum. Would you rather have for one season, the 2021 season, Would you rather have Matt Ryan or Ryan Tannenhill? Oh, man.

I think I would still take Matt Ryan. Ryan Tana Hill is perfect for that offense because he is not afraid to take a sack. He will stand in the pocket, hold the ball, until the defense is bearing down on him and throw it downfield. And I think you need that type of guy in that play action heavy type of offense.

But I think Matt Ryan can do that too. I don't think Matt Ryan's afraid in the pocket. And we saw what he was in this type of offense back in what was the 2016 with Kyle Shane. So I think I'll take Ryan right now, but I'm prepared to be wrong. We're all prepared to be wrong, buddy. Welcome to the ring NFL show. Danny, same question.

Ryan or Tanohill? I think I'd lean. I think I lean Ryan, but it's close. And I think that really, that says a lot of. Hey, that's like taking a push. You said Ryan. Yeah, I know. I thought about that.

I'm going Ryan. And the first thing that I thought of, too, was how Matt Ryan. Elite he was in that Shanahan offense. And, you know, like, I think it'll be like a similarly styled thing here this, this season. And so he could really have a good season. I think obviously I would have felt better about it before they traded Julio. Like I, before they traded Julio, I was like, Matt Ryan has a chance to actually go like scorched her this year.

It's going to be really, really good. But now I'm just like a little bit worried about. Tana Hill does have like the advantage. He's a little more mobile. He's a little more athletic, more dynamic. He can escape the pressure. things like that like Matt Ryan I think is more dependent on like the offensive line and things like that but I don't know it's close Matt Ryan right right tanahill's numbers the last few years honestly since he took over a starter in Tennessee is like top three top four and you can't say the same about Matt Ryan but Matt Ryan's been doing it longer so I guess like how do you weigh that you know what I mean so I don't know I'd still lean Matt Ryan but I think Tanna Hill's now in that discussion and we're probably still not high enough on Tanna Hill, if that makes any sense.

So good fence sitting by me there. Over under on 7.5. This one's tough. This one's tough. So their defense, honestly, I was looking at the DVOA from last year. They finished 14th. That's shocking to me. I was actually, like, maybe not even aware of that.

And it's funny because, like, I'm really excited that they're almost exactly league average. But I think that that does give them, like, again, like a little bit of a foundation. Just walking around the house, just screaming, let's go. because they're 14th. A foam finger with 14 on it. Yeah, yeah, yeah. League average DVOA. Yeah.

So, oh, man. I think I just, I don't know, I think I'm going under. I still, I don't know. Before the Julio thing, I think their offense was going to have, give them a chance to be really competitive. But I still think there's, number one, their division is really strong or could be really strong. Obviously, Tampa Bay still there.

The Saints, I think, are still a good. team. Panthers are a bit of a wild card. I don't know. It just, it seems like to me this is, um, what is the over under seven? Six and a half? Seven point five. Seven and a half. I think don't try to lower it. Don't try to lower it before giving your answer. Yeah, I'm going under. I'm going under too, but I also think that we will, we will feel good about this franchise after this season, um, if that makes sense. When games are not supposed to, staying games are not supposed to. That's my general vibe. Carolina Panthers, seven and a half.

Yes. I'll let Danny start this one off because it's going to be emotional experience for Panthers fan, Stephen. Did you grow up in North Carolina, Stephen? No, I didn't. It was just random. I was just young when they first started and I just picked them because they weren't Washington. That sounds.

Seven and a half. Which is like buying like Amazon stock back in the day, like not becoming a Washington fan because I don't know how people do that. Yeah. Well, you could have picked let's let's be clear you could have picked a better team than carolina that's a good point too yeah but anything's not washington and it's anything that's not washington's fine totally fine uh danny kelly seven point five so i guess i still lean under on this team though in in the big picture i'm i'm relatively bullish on them but i still think going to sam darnold could end

up being looking like a big uh misstep for them um i think they have like the skill players on offense to be really exciting. Obviously, getting Christian McCaffrey back, DJ Moore, really good player, Robbie Anderson underrated player. I like their pick of Terrace Marshall. But is Sam Darnold going to elevate this offense much more than like you could have seen with Teddy Bridgewater? I kind of doubt it.

Again, like, you have to go with like the odds. Like there is always the chance that Sam Darnold is an outlier. He's the next Ryan Tannahill. He gets out of the gay situation and all of a sudden he becomes good. But there's like no evidence that he is good yet, you know? other than like what we saw other than that though other than that other than I'm I like I'm hopeful for him

honestly because I like the gay situation is legitimately like as bad as you can get it is as bad as you can get but but I just don't think the odds are very strong that he's going to be significantly better or a hit that he'll be significantly better than like what we got from Bridgewater last year I guess is the bottom line so

and their defense I will say there's some talented guys on that it's up-and-coming defense, but I don't know if they're, I think they're still probably a year away from being like a good defense. So I'm going under. So with Donald, Daniel Jeremiah came out with that statement. I think he said that if Donald's talent were in this draft, he would go,

if NFL evaluators looking at it, he would go like second or third or something like that. Right. If he's available as long as long as everybody else, you don't believe that. You think that they're, okay. I disagree on that.

Yeah. Steven, 7.5 Carolina Panthers. I'm going under. And if anything, I thought Danny sounded optimistic that he even gave it, that he gave it a chance that Sam Darnold is going to be good. Like I feel like even saying back in college he sewed signs of being good is kind of an overstatement. Because at times he looked like a tight end playing quarterback, which is what he looks like now. And let me say this about the Adam Gates.

A lot of that going around, by the way, tight end guys who should be tight ends playing quarterback. They're in Jacksonville. But let me say this about the Gays. From a clean pocket, Sam Darnold was bad. When he was throwing to open receivers, he was bad. He was bad under Jeremy Bates. I don't think he was, like I said, I don't think he was that good in college.

And the only thing he was good at, I think this is from the QB, PFF, QB annual. He was really good at throwing swing passes, which is like how Adam Gase built his offense. Maybe Adam Gase built his offense to suit Sam Darnold's strengths, and that's why we got that offense. Because Sam Darnold is that bad of a quarterback. like we talked about Carson Wentz earlier,

but like Carson Wentz's worst season is Sam Darnold every season, except for like one stretch for a month. Right. So obviously I'm down on the Panthers. Did we just get a Adam Gase maximize Sam Darnold take on the swing passes? No. Adam Gase built around Sam Darnold was holding Gase back. Why don't we build the whole plane around swing passes?

No, Adam Gase is a terrible coach. He's a terrible offense of play caller. I'm not defending him. But I will say this, like this, just the team building thing has made no sense of the last two years. And case and point, they let James Bradbury walk, who I just said was probably the best player on the Giants, who was probably a top five corner last year.

The money they could have used to sign him, they signed Teddy Bridgewater. And then this year they get rid of Teddy Bridgewater. They trade for Sam Darnold, and then they pass on Justin Fields to draft a cornerback. And they could have just used that money on James Bradbury and drafted Justin Fields this year. I hate this team.

I hate everything about it. God, I hate being a sports fan. I hate being a sports fan. It's a good way to end that. I'm also going under. I just, I don't know about the direction. I still, I don't feel as strongly that we'll feel good about the franchise as I do with Atlanta. But I do, I do still have long-term hope.

There's a reason that Matt Ruhle got a long-term contract. Things will be fine down there. I kind of, I am high on David Tepper long-term. I'm just high on guys who clearly want the, want to win and we'll spend to do so. I mean, I've said this before, but I remember someone in football telling me many years ago, I mean, like five years ago,

that the first step towards winning a Super Bowl was wanting to win a Super Bowl. And I know that sounds ridiculous, but there's just a bunch of teams who were just like, yeah, we're good right now. Like, we're just going to figure it out for two years and then maybe in a couple of years we'll go for. I mean, you can look at cash spending,

you look at a bunch of different teams. Or you could look at there are teams that never go for it. And I feel like David Depper is the kind of owner who's going to say, okay, let's, yeah, he's already spending on practice facilities. I feel like he's going to be fine with cash spending and, and all that. I feel like long term, he's the kind of owner you want, even if the program isn't there right now.

Saints, nine. Danny, we've done the debate on who's going to be quarterback and what it looks like right now. I'm doing it a couple of weeks ago. But this is a, there's so many things to go into this, this win total. And belief in the defense is Sean Payton. and you have to take at some level, some leap of faith and James Winston to go over.

Where are you? I'm going over with them. Again, I think that the defense is going to be strong. The coaching staff is going to find ways to get the most of its players. I personally, I think that Taysam Hill is going to end up being a starter. I don't know if he's going to start week one,

but it's kind of like exactly the discussion we've just been having about like Donald, about Daniel Jones. Like, Darnold threw picks in college. he threw picks for the Jets. Is he going to, like, is all of a sudden he going to stop, like, turning the ball over? Like, I think the same question is applicable for James Winston. Like, I don't know if you can coach that out of him.

And as soon as he starts throwing, like, two, three, four picks, you can't win with that, especially with the style that the Saints play. So I personally just believe, I don't, like, we'll see what happens, but I believe that Taysom will end up being the starter. They'll be able to do enough stuff offensively with that. I didn't think Tason was bad as everybody made him out to be. I don't think he was like awesome or anything, but he was better than I expected,

which is kind of saying a lot. So, I mean, you know, I don't know if they're going to be an elite team, but I do think that they're just going to be a really solid team. I think 10 wins is well within the realm of possibility. So nine feels low to me,

honestly. So the argument you and I had a couple of months ago was whether or not we felt like the Saints won as many games they did last year because of Drew Brees or despite him. And that's that gets to the, the heart of the matter. I think Drew Breeze, I, listen, I don't, I don't think he was Patrick Palmes last year, but I do think that having Drew Breeze over a turnover prone quarterback or quarterback who, and I hate to be, you know, kind of reductive here, but Taysam Hill had more tackles

than past completions at the time he took over last year as starter. That's a stat, okay? Like, I don't, that's just, there's just a lack of a body of evidence that he could do it over a full season, right? He was fine in spurts. I agree with you. But I, I, I, I, there's a, There's just a lot of questions for me. And I do think having Drew Brie's back there, almost like a Peyton Manning, you know, you only need to make four or five throws over the course of a game, even though you can't do it anymore kind of thing. I felt like that was somewhat sustainable over 17, 20 game stretch, whatever it is.

I don't think that the quarterback situation is now. So I'm going under. I have all the faith in the world and Sean Payton in that defense to at least be average. But when the question is quarterback, that's the biggest question of all. I just can't go over when that's the question. Stephen Ruiz, say it's nine. I agree with you. I'm going to go under for the same reason you're saying.

And I'm thinking back to the 2015 Broncos. Do they win that Super Bowl with Brock Osweiler instead of Peyton Manning? And Peyton Manning was not the quarterback by that point. I think it's a similar situation. And then turning it out, let's say they turn it over to Tason Hill. Yes, he doesn't throw as many interceptions as James, but he throws a decent amount of interceptions for the attempts he's made. And he fumbles.

He fumbles the ball. A lot more than Daniel Jones does. And he takes sacks at a ridiculously high rate. I think those issues, especially the sacks, are more detrimental to the offense, especially how Sean Payton's going to want to play it this year, than interceptions downfield. So I think James ends up starting. And I like James as the quarterback, but I think the rest of the team takes a step back.

And even if James is better, like aesthetically better than Drew Brees, I don't think that calm, not having that calming hand is going to hurt this offense in the long. like in the big picture. I agree. And even I, even if Drew Brees couldn't throw more than eight yards down the field on a reliable basis, knowing what to do with the football is, is a really hard trait to master. And he could do it even if he'd had the physical tools. There's something to be said for that. All right, bucks 11 and a half. This one is is probably more interesting than I would normally think for a defending Super Bowl champion who brought everybody back. We'll start

with you, Stephen. I'm going to go over. And this is one of those things where, I'm going to talk my, I'm going under, but I'm going to take the over because I'm a sucker. I think this is a classic hedge. Oh, yes. That's exactly what it is. You're fitting right in on this show, Steve. But I think Vegas set this line like they did for a reason. But if you look at the Bucks roster, they are relying on some old guys. I don't know if you know this, but Tom Brady's in his 40s right now. And he could fall off a cliff at any moment. He's playing in a golf tournament tonight, Steve. That's classic retiree behavior. Right. And this was the healthiest team in football last year. And I think it was by a wide margin. And that's probably not going to happen again. So I think

this team could be better to start out the season than it was at the same time last year and still end up losing more games than they did a year ago. So I'm going to take the over. But I think they could win, win only 11 games and still be a factor in the playoffs. So I can't go under because I've made this argument for 18 months, which is that the bucks under Brady are always going to get better because no one wants to know where everything is on a field where, you know, within, he gets upset in the summer if his passes are an inch off.

And he wasn't able to work out with his guys last year and get that time and down, get that rhythm. And, you know, we heard so many stories. I think I wrote a couple of them about, about Peyton Manning doing extra work with his guys in 2013 and, you know, yelling in Emmanuel Sanders in Denver or whatever it was.

And I don't, I think Brady is at this point is that times five. And the fact that he won a Super Bowl without mini camps last year, without real OTAs, without contact with a lot of his guys. Obviously, he was able to see some people, as we know from the Byron Leftwich House anecdote. But he didn't have a full training camp. It was just, you know, there were times where I remember Jake Laser coming on the show a couple months ago. And he was saying, you know, these guys couldn't even have meals together.

and there was a real lack of camaraderie in every locker room because a lot of the times, guys, much more than we think, they don't really care what team they play for. They don't really care what coach they play for. But a lot of times they're just like, you know what, I like the dudes in my position group meetings. You know, I like these dudes. Like, we're doing it for ourselves.

It happens a lot. I'm not saying Tampa Bay is like that. But I'm saying the NFL a lot of times when you talk about good chemistry, it doesn't come from the coaches. It comes from the locker room. And that was non-existent across the NFL last year. It was impossible to produce chemistry. And the fact that Tom Brady was able to do it so quickly in a new environment,

and now he's got a longer runway, to me, that I think they'll start hotter than they did last year. And they got the crap knocked out of them by New Orleans. They'll start hotter than they did last year, and they will win over. Danny Kelly. Yeah. I mean, I think that the injuries thing is definitely a really good point. And it's, you know, you often see teams that have the best injury luck. one year completely regressed

the next year and it's a huge, huge factor in any season. However, I think if Tom Brady stays healthy, this is still going to be a, you know, 12, 11, 13 win team. I think there just has to be, like, if you look at what the Patriots did in the 2010s, the entire freaking decade, they never lost, they never won fewer than 11 games in that whole stretch. I'm sure there was some injury like, you know,

variation in there. They probably had some worse years than others. But at this point, I'm just like just done doubting what Tom Brady brings, really. He's that good. And this is a team with an elite roster with depth. And, you know, I just like it, like last year they had the, it was the third ranked defense. No, sorry. They had the fifth ranked defense and the third ranked offense.

Their special teams weren't very good. But like, this is a really, really balanced team. So I think they have the leeway to have some injuries. Obviously, if they have catastrophic injuries, that changes the discussion. But they have the leeway to have more injuries this year and still be an elite team, if that makes any sense. I think Tom Brady, Tom Brady is, I think, still, like we just were talking about what Breeze brought to the Saints. Tom Brady is absolutely still that, even if he's, like, his arm strength isn't what it used to be or whatever. I still think he looked pretty damn good late in the season last year.

His arm hasn't fallen off like Drew Bree. So he knows what to do and he can actually make throws. He doesn't have the arm strength of us. I think him playing in Tampa Bay is a big reason for that because his arm did kind of look bad at the end in New England. And there was a reason he was trying to avoid playing in cold weather. In the cold wind. We've seen why.

Yeah. So I'm going over. And again, it's just like Tom Brady, he's that guy, man. He's just going to like will this team to wins. And he's like so smart. And like Kevin, everything you said, he did all that without an off season. in a completely new system, completely new language,

I'm assuming, completely new teammates this year with a full off season to do what he's going to do. I just look at what the absurdity of what he did and what the Patriots did, basically his entire tenure in New England

the last 20 years, and there's a reason for that ridiculous, ridiculous consistency. Now, obviously, Belichick is out of the picture, but I think Ariens is a good coach too. So, I don't know, man.

I'm just going with Brady. it just seems like unless they have catastrophic injuries, they're still going to be an elite team. Chicago Bears 7.5. I just saw an item that Mitch Trubisky got married. Congratulations. Nice. What a momentous occasion for the former Bears quarterback,

now in Buffalo. The Bear 7.5, this is a, this is a Justin Fields line. And that's what kind of goes into this. If I was actually betting it, if I was betting these, it actually probably stay away from the Bears, just not knowing.

We did the overrun. a couple weeks ago on how many starts Justin Fields makes. I think everyone is pretty consistent on the idea that, at least in the media, that September, early October is the time. But a lot that goes into it. Stephen Ruiz, 7.5 Chicago Bears. I'm going to go over.

I agree with you. I wouldn't touch this if I was actually betting on it. But I do think that defense, and they're kind of getting back to the Vic Fangio way of playing this year with their new defensive coordinator. I think that gives them a seal, a floor where they're going to win at least seven games. I mean, we've seen this with, even with Mitch the last two years when he wasn't good,

they still won like eight games both of those years, eight, nine games. So I think the floor is really high with this team. I'm not bullish on them. I don't think they're going to make the playoffs or anything like that, even if Justin Fields plays a lot of games, although I do like Justin Fields. I still see them winning at least eight games. And I think the changes they made to the offense at the end of last year,

when they made Mitch Trubisky look like a quarterback where we were asking, know, or the bear's going to keep them around. I think those carry over to this season, and they help Justin Fields just make the jump from college. And I think he has a fine rookie year if he does play, because they do have weapons. Like Alan Robinson still there, Darnell Mooney was really good last year.

I like Cole Komett, the tight end. The offensive line is bad, but I think they can work around that. I think the Bears went at least eight games. So I think Fields can take over early. I've already spelled this out before, but obviously they start with the Rams. That seems like a Dalton game. Then they have the Bengals, Browns, Lions, Raiders, and then the Packers on October 17th.

I don't think you can have, especially if Aaron Rogers is playing, I don't think you can make a debut against Aaron Roger. I think that's just a really bad situation to put a young guy into. So I'm thinking sometime in early October later that time maybe it's the Lions. Maybe if the fight in Dan Campbell's aren't don't look great, maybe you put him in there and get him some easy throws and an easy W. that that would be what I lean towards. I like Matt Nagy as a play caller. I like him. We saw what he could do in Kansas City.

We saw what he was able to do. I mean, obviously, everyone knows kind of now how the, what the roles were for the development of Mahomes. He wasn't with Mahomes all the time, but obviously he had a huge say and how that whole thing developed in Kansas City. Mike Kafka was more assigned to Mahomes when Mahomes was a rookie while Nagy was with Alex Smith.

But, you know, one thing I have heard is that Nagy tends to sweat the small stuff. We've seen that in, you know, it kind of hits you over the head when he's trying out a million kickers after they miss a field go after the double doink. But also I've heard with the media and stuff, he kind of argues balls and strikes. And I, you know, I've just heard sometimes that he will get,

um, a little more frazzled than some other coaches over some, some small stuff. And so having said that, uh, that's just the one sort of thing I have heard. But I, I,

I think that he still has the capability to make quarterbacks better than they should be. And that is why I'm going over. I think he can take a huge step forward as a head coach. I think that Justin Fields playing fine would save Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy's jobs for kind of a handful of years, as we see how his development plays out. So I'm going over. I think they'll go. I think they'll be okay.

I agree with you on the defense. There's a floor there. Danny Kelly, 7.5. Yeah, I think I'm going over also. I was really torn on this one because, you know, I don't know, like, how there is the question, like, how consistent can defense be year over year? But I do think that this defense gives them a chance to, you know, have that floor, be competitive. If things go right on offense, they can win some games. And I'm going back to, I'm trying to remember, really, because I didn't honestly watch a ton of the bears because their offense is just so unwatchable.

But take this for what it's worth. Like PFF ranked Trubisky as a passer, his passing grade last year, was 54th among all quarterbacks. Let's see what, according to, or sorry, among qualifying, it was like 36th out of 42 potential guys. So like, it's very difficult to win games when your quarterback can't hit open guys, refuses to pull the trigger.

I don't want to like be a naggy defender a defender or whatever but like it's very difficult to win games when your quarterback is like just like missing easy throws and refusing to throw to guys that are open or at least somewhat open. And so do I think Andy Dalton is a big upgrade? Nobody's I think he is an upgrade or Trubisky. And then I think that Justin Fields has potential to be a massive upgrade, especially if they use him as a runner and try and open things up that way. like their offense got a lot better down the stretch. And when their run game really started taking off, they had more balance. They weren't leaning entirely on Trubisky to like do everything.

I think that like there was some symbiosis there. Like he was like starting to look better when their run game was also opening things up for them. And so I think that they want to be balanced like that. They want to have, um, you know, the ability to not just have to lean on their quarterback to do everything. And I think if Justin Fields comes in and they use him as a runner, they can, you know, utilize him on some read option stuff. that will open up the run game because it's just going to, you know, create gaps where there weren't gaps last year.

So I'm bullish on fields. I think their offense is just going to look a lot better because their quarterback is going to be much more competent. And their defense says that floor. So I don't know. I'm not like super bullish on this team, but I do think that they're going to be, you know, a solid competitive team again. Stephen, if Andy Dillan were on the 2020 Chicago Bears, would they have won more than eight games? No. I don't think they would have.

I think Andy Dalton is an upgrade, though. I think he's an upgrade, but not like, it's not the biggest upgrade. Not a significant one. Yeah. It's not, they didn't get him a home seat. By the way, can we clip Danny's whole thing on the Bears and send that to Mitch as a wedding gift?

It wasn't on your registry, Mitch, but somehow we're still roasting. He's gone. He's off the team. And when we talk about the Bears, we just spent it, roasting Mitch the whole time. He's in Buffalo. What if it works out?

The only way this ends is the Bears trading a second round pick to get Mitchell Trubisky back. Oh, Jesus. Because he just looks great in week 17. It's like a sadder version of like the Jimmy G back to New England rumors. Right. Just like much sadder version. Right. You ready for a reunion.

Okay. Green Bay is off the board. But let's talk about this for a second. I don't want to not talk about the Packers. So we're a couple hours away from the match part three, I guess. It's the first one with Aaron Rogers. Aaron Rogers not doing a lot of talking about a situation, but if I were to handicap this,

I would guess he shows up to training camp eventually in place. If Aaron Rogers does play for the Packers, what would be your guys' average win total in your mind, if you simulate it a million times, Stephen? 12, 13? I would deal with the same as the Bucks line. so 11 and a half. And I would go over on it.

Yeah. Yeah. Danny. Yeah. No, I was thinking, I was thinking 12. Like, Bacon, a little bit of regression, the offense efficiency, like, was absolutely absurd. Last year, Bacon, a little bit of regression.

There's still a 12 plus win team, I think. So, from a roster standpoint, if it's Jordan Love for 17 regular season games, because they would still have one of the best receivers in football. They'd still have talent along the offensive line. They'd still have, and they do really do have some blue chippers. but it would be what I would guess would be league average quarterback play. What would you what would you theorize there, Sita?

I would say seven and the half. I think Rogers matters that much. Like we, when we think about that first question you ask, we just think about the offense, we say, oh, Rogers there, everything else is going to be fine. Then you just think about what the defense is going to be. But if Rogers isn't there, is the offensive line as good

if he's not like making checks at the line, checking into the right plays, changing the protections? Is Devante Adams as good without the best quarterback in the league last year? the MVP putting the ball right where it needs to be. So I think the offense would take a major step back. And I'm not as high on the defense this year as I was last year. I think they replaced Mike Pedden with Joe Barry,

who has never coordinated a top 29 defense in like four years of trying. So I'm, yeah, I would go under. And I would say seven and a half because I don't, I don't believe in Jordan Love or Blake Bortles. I want to check something. Yeah, wasn't Joe Barry the defensive coordinator for the, the winless lines? I believe he was.

I think he was. Yeah. I think he was on Marinelli's staff. Yeah, tough one. Isn't he Marinelli's son-in-law? I'm not mistaken? Oh, yeah.

I think, yeah, he is. He definitely is 100%. Hmm. Danny Kelly, same question. If it's Jordan Love, are we out on the 20-21 Packers? I mean, yeah.

Yeah. I mean, I think maybe I'm a little bit... No, honestly, you don't even have to say much more. Okay. Yeah. I'm just going to stick about it. Detroit Lions 5. I'll start with you, Danny.

I'm going under. I think it's a good, it's a good, it's a good number over under for them because I think that's like, if they win five games, like that's about what I expect. I would, I have no faith.

Are you trying to push? Are you trying to push again? I'm saying, you know, four wins. I think they're a rebuilding team. I think their roster is really tough right now. Offensively, I think they're going to struggle greatly

to move the ball. I don't think, Jared Goff is a good match for an offense that has a, has very little talent at receiver and is still trying to build like an offensive line. I think their offensive line should be better, clearly, this year than it was last year. But, you know, I just don't have a lot of faith in this offense. I think the defense is, you know, still trying to put everything together. I think it'll be better than it was last year.

But again, I think it's going to be a bad team. They're rebuilding essentially. And I don't have high hopes. for either side of the ball. I don't mean to mean. I really don't. Is there an offense? It is a match for Jared Goff.

Yeah, it was just in one of the most quarter. Right, but we saw the ceiling on that. Yeah. And the ceiling was Sean McVeigh being like, get this guy out of here. For at all costs. At all costs. It was overpay. All right.

Steven, Detroit, five. I don't think Detroit's going to be the worst team in the league, but I think they're going to be the saddest team in the league. because of Jared Goff. And like, how they've built, like, Anthony Lynn is their offensive coordinator. Does that make any sense with Jared Kauf? Like, I can't think of a worse offensive coordinator pairing for Jared Goff. And they do have a good offensive line.

It seems like on paper. So I think they're going to be able to run the ball. But my question is, what happens when that running, like, when you're running on first and down every drive and you get stuff in it's Jared Goff with those wide receivers that I can't even name? And I get paid right about the NFL. On third and nine. Rashad Paramarman. Tyro Williams.

Tyro Williams, Khalif Raymond. You made up that last person. I refused to repeat this. Amon Ross St. Brown is the draft pick. Daniel, you had a quick scouting report

on Amman Ross St. Brown? I mean, I think he could end up being like their top receiver in terms of targets. He's a good slot. That's exactly what we needed to know

about the 2021 lines. It's a fourth round pick though. I mean, big strong slot receiver. No, I know. Yeah. I think highly.

of him, but I just think that there's, there's just a lot of question marks. Stephen, does Jared Goff, just thought experiment? Does Jared Goff start all 17 games? No, no way. I think he, he taps out himself by like week eight. He's like, I even I don't. Like, I'll give up my signing bonus or whatever. This is it working. Mutual unconscious coupling a quarterback. I'm going under two. I, you know, Stephen, it's interesting, you said the saddest thing, the saddest team in the league, because I actually, I think that they're going to play hard and tough. I think Campbell's good coach. I think that he's hired some really good assistants. And I generally kind of, what we're talking about some of the other bad teams, I like the direction the program is on.

But I think that Dan Campbell's press conferences, because he takes it so hard, are going to be just uniquely sad. Right. Like, I don't think there's going to be a lot of positivity in, in week nine when they've won one game. So I am with you that there's some real sadness potential here. Vikings 8.5. This is a tough one. Danny Kelly. Yeah, I don't know. I think I lean under. It's tough because I think they have the opportunity the chance to be really exciting on offense again,

like Justin Jefferson, you know, Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook. That's a really good trifecta on offense. I think Kirk Cousins is perennial. Perennial. Perennially, I did it. Perennially underrated. And, you know, I don't think he's... Did you just flip your bat? You pronounced it correctly and then you did it again,

just so everyone knew. I'm going to just walk to first base. Yeah. Yeah. Everyone knew you can do it now. It's a tough word to say. It is. Anyway, every year he's underrated, I think.

I don't know. But I think he's a solid guy. I think in this offense, he fits really well. He's kind of like the Tannahill style. Like, we should probably be higher on it. We should probably give Kirk Couss more respect. Steven, are you going to, are you disagree? I was going to say this was like the perfect description of Kurt Cousin's career.

Like he's underrated, I think. I don't know. Maybe. No. Yeah, that's what our cousins. Yeah, yeah. So I think their offense could be solid. But again, I think the big question is,

what are they going to be on defense? And I don't know. Like, did they get significantly better from last year? Do they get, I still have question marks, I guess, about like the pass rush situation. You know, the secondary is still a big question mark. Patrick Peterson comes in and has to make a big impact there. I don't know.

I'm going under, I think. It's tough. They're right there on the cusp. To start to finish, Steve. even just the perfect description of the 2021 Vikings is just saying, I don't know a lot. Not know, as you said, not knowing if her cousins is overrated

or underrated, having no clue on that. I wish I could copy and paste everything you just said, Danny. What's up with Clint Kubiak, by the way, too? Like, new offensive coordinator? I don't know. I'm going under, I guess. I honestly have no idea. Stephen Ruiz. I know

it's impossible for them to push because it's eight and a half, but I'm still picking push. This is an eight and a half. They will find a way. That includes a tie. So, yes. Yeah. If they tied, wouldn't it be eight and a half? Yeah. I don't know how that works. I feel like there'd be a tie in there somewhere. I don't actually don't think that. I don't actually don't think that a tie counts.

I think that it's actually pure wins. But it feels like a tie should count for the Minnesota Vikings. Yeah, I don't know. I mean, I just, can you tell me about Christian Darrowsoe, Danny? I mean, I think that, I think he's a good player. I think he comes in. He's a perfect fit for them. They got a great value on him. And he makes that offensive line better. But I don't know if it doesn't like solve. It certainly doesn't solve anything to have some of the issues they have on defense.

I mean, last year, remember Zimmer was like I haven't coached a bad defense yet. And like that was his first one. It was not a good defense. And I just don't know if they've gotten like significantly better during the off season. Does Kell and Mon play a game this year, start a game this year?

No. I agree. I agree. Kirk Cousins is a dead cap in 2020 to a $45 million. hours. If you played for the Rams, that'd be easily movable, but for other teams. Kirk Cousins is never going to miss a game. No. He just like he's going to into existence that he's never going to miss a game. But also, he's pretty good. Yeah. This is a pro-Cirk Cousins podcast. Danny, he's underrated. That's the ruling. He's underrated.

I can get excited about Kirk Cousins being good. The most I can add is, yeah, it's good. Well, the problem is he makes like $30 million. a year. And so you can't really be like, man, one underappreciated guy because he's one of the highest paid players. He's on a two-year, $66 million contract. Going back to the PFF grades that I mentioned earlier, so Kirk Cousins last year was 11th, he ranked 11th. He tied with Dak Prescott. Same passing grade as Dak Prescott last year. He freaking was good, man. He was like really saw it, like, in that offense, he's a perfect fit. He's willing to push it downfield. You know, he's willing to give it to his top guys.

You know, it seems like, you know, things, I don't know, this thing, if things go really well, this offense could be really good. But again, I just don't know what to expect from the defense. I just don't know. I just don't expect them to be a really, you know, they're not going to be an elite team, certainly. And I don't know, you know, what's the over under again, eight and a half. Yeah.

See, this is like an eight win team. All right. This one is going to give me a headache. Arizona Cardinals eight, Stephen. I'm going under. Oh. And I'm going under because I don't believe in Cliff Kingsbury. Yeah, all right.

Okay. Let's hear. I'm someone who believed in Cliff when he first came in. And the things that I believed in him for, he's kind of done. Like I thought he was going to fix that run game just with scheme alone because that offensive line was horrible. And that's happened. But my problem with Cliff when I watched their offense is like it seems like he doesn't

realize that you can get yards beyond the first down marker. like every play is called just to get enough yards for a first down. And I think that's held Kyler Murray back, which is why Kyler looks good when you watch him. We're all like, yeah, this is a good quarterback we're watching. But then you look at his stats and they're not as good as you think they should be. And I think that has to do with it. And then he's still running these RPO's where they have bubble screens attached to it

where that just don't work in the NFL. So unless Cliff just totally transforms this offense over this offseason, I don't see them being much better than they were last year. and I don't think they were that good last year. What's the number? Eight. See, if I could pick push, I would pick push here. Now, I'm not going to hedge.

I'm not going to hedge. I'm going under. Seven. They're winning seven. Okay. So there's a couple things here. Number one being, I did not believe in Cliff at the beginning. And then I talked myself into him at the end of year one.

And now I've talked myself out of them because I thought he was on his trajectory that he was not on. I have high hopes for Kyler. I was one of the people who thought that Kyler was going to be MVP candidate last year didn't happen. And I think there needs to be a significant step forward because if you're Arizona and you see the talent Kyler has, you think about all the coaches who could unlock that. And obviously, you know, PFF had that study about how he does. I mean, listen, there are some disadvantages to height, not having, quote unquote, normal NFL height.

And he does tend to throw interceptions over the middle of the field, which, could be perhaps tied to that. But I think in general, he has super duper star talent. And if they don't take a huge step forward, somebody else should get a chance to unlock Kylie Murray because Cliff ain't it. Danny Kelly. Yeah, I lean under also.

I don't know. It's just, I think the biggest reason for me is because I think the division is so good, is really why I'm leaning under it. It's a backdoor Seahawks take. But it's like the Rams are going to, I think the Rams are going to really, tough this year. I think the 49ers are going to go back to being a really strong team, and the Seahawks are a good, like, team every single year. So I just think it's going to be

tough for the Cardinals with their, with that schedule. Just looking at the sharp football stat schedule, they have the 24th, they're 24th in schedule, so much tougher than average. I don't know. I, I basically agree with everything you guys have said about Kyler. Like, he has to make a big jump this year as a passer. He's looked really good as a runner like he did lot of really cool stuff in the red zone. He helped open up that run game. But I don't know. We still haven't seen, I think,

Cliff get the most out of him, really. It almost feels like Cliff has let him down the last couple of seasons. And so I'm just a little bit, I guess, skeptical still about that. And so that's why I'm leaning under. Stephen, do you think that the Cardinals have what could be phrased, a good roster?

Because I don't think much of AJ Green in 2021. But then you look at their defense, and they have intriguing pieces. Isaiah Simmons is one of these guys who I think exists better in fantasy right now than he theoretically rather in our heads than he does on the field. Zavin Collins is a very intriguing draft pick.

You know, Chandler Jones is obviously still really good. Gigi Watt is probably a bit in some facets of this game, I think that people have kind of written him off and I still think he'd be a pretty good contributor. Malcolm Butler is playing cornerback for them. Where would you put their roster talent? I would say it's like average.

Like I agree with you. Beyond DeAndre Hopkins, the receiving court, I'm not a fan of the receiving court at all. The offensive line isn't that good. Like I said, I don't think the play calling is that good. And then on the defensive side, it's really a bunch of, if everything goes right, this roster could be okay.

But if everything's not going to go right, Malcolm Butler is not going to be 2017 Malcolm Butler. JJ Watts not going to turn the clock back four years. Chandler Jones is coming off a season where he played, I think, one month. It only had one sack and pretty sure he was suspended at one point. I don't know. I don't see the defense being much better, and I'm not a huge fan of Vance Joseph. They played a lot of man coverage last year, and I don't know if they're going to try to do that again,

but if they do, it's not going to work out. So I mean, I don't think the roster is that good. I don't think the coaching staffs that good. Like really all my optimism is based on Tyler Murray and the amazing things he could do with that arm. They have a roster that, and I'm sure this can be set of 20 rosters, but they in particular have a roster that could be unlocked by elite coaching and they don't have that on either side of the ball. That's the problem. Rams 10.5, Danny Kelly.

Yeah, I'm going over. I'm going over with this. I think, like I said, the Rams are going to be really good offensively, I believe. I think, you know, with Sean McBay getting a quarterback who can push the ball downfield, make plays, you know, off platform, second reaction plays. I think Stafford, it's going to be like this perfect sort of marriage. Stafford is finally going to be able to get back to where, you know, we thought he was earlier in his career. And McBae is going to be the guy that we thought he was a couple years ago when he was, you know,

coaching golf to these ridiculous heights and going to the Super Bowl and all that. Obviously, things have kind of fallen off from there. but I think it's just like this team has a ton of upside on offense. A lot of really good skill players. Defensively, they have a couple superstars. I think that they can work around that. They've got some really solid guys too. There's a big question what the effect of Brandon Saley leaving will be on that defense.

But I just really think the offense can be so good. It's not going to make up for any progression you see from the defense. So I'm pretty bullish on the Rams this year. I think they could be really good, really explosive, score a lot of points. Stephen 10-5. I'm going to go under. I think they take a step back and the 49ers take their places, that second team along with the Seahawks competing for the division.

And I think it's the Brandon Staley thing. Yeah, I love the Matthew Stafford deal. I think he just elevates that offense all around. But at the same time, that offense, like Robert Woodch showed some signs of decline last year. Cooper Cup has never started 16 games in its career. Andrew Whitworth is like 45 years old. That's true. A lot of things could take a step back around Stafford,

and he could be better than Jericho. I expect him to be significantly better than Jericho, but the offense could be a little worse. And then I, even if Staley was still there, I think the defense would have taken a step back, just because that's what defenses do. But they lost John Johnson, who was, he was the one wearing the green dots.

He was the play caller. He never left the field. That's a big loss. Michael Brockers was so important. to what they did last year, I don't see how the defense doesn't fall back. And I honestly think they're going to fall out of the top 10. And if they're not one of the better defenses in the league in that division, I don't see them making the playoffs. And I think they're going to have to make the playoffs to win 11 games. They only won 10 games last year and everything went right with the

defense. So I'm going to, I'm going to go over. I think that they can be really good. I think that the defense. You know, it's interesting to me, Danny, you made the point about Staley. If there's an old Warren Buffett line, it's basically just like, you know, design anything so that an idiot can run it, basically. And when you have Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey, a handful of these guys, you and I could be the defensive coordinators. And there's a baseline there, right? We could just say, Aaron, just run around and just do your thing. And we're just going to hang out here and get a picture and just watch this, right? The good news is the Rehim Morris is far from that. He's a really good NFL coach.

And I think there's a floor with that talent. And I think that Matthew Stafford pushing the ball, we've not seen Sean McVeigh running on all cylinders with a quarterback that he likes for lack of better term. The kind of guy he wants. And he's been praising Stafford's intelligence all year. Stephen wrote about this a couple weeks ago. Give us your take on this. Do you think that a lot of this stuff this summer has been,

a lot of McPhay's comments have been a sub-tweet of golf's play? Oh, absolutely. Even if it wasn't intentional, even if he wasn't thinking, oh, I'm going to take a shot at Jared. I think it's just been refreshing for him in the ways that we all thought it would be. And that's really how his relationship with golf went. Even when they were producing at a high level in 2018, after that Super Bowl, there were still questions like,

is Cherikoff worth all this money? is this, does McVeigh really like coaching him? And then it turned out like, no, he didn't like coaching him. And he wanted him out of there. And now he's got this brain at quarterback because that Stafford hasn't gotten a lot of credit for what he does pre-snap, but he's really one of the better quarterbacks in that situation. And I think it just takes so much off of McVeigh's plate on game day where he's just, he probably feels like a new coach.

I agree. Stephen, how many, what, where do you think the Rams would finish in defensive? Danny and I were the code DCs. I would give you guys, I would say top 20. Wow. Okay. Okay. Because of Aaron Donald and Ramsey.

Yeah, no, we would just let them do their thing. Right. We would do the Doug Peterson thing with Nick Bowles and just be like, tell us what you're comfortable with. And then we just run those five things over and over again. This is the Warren Buffett principle. Just let the idiots run it. And we're going to do fine.

That's less need. That's Sean McPaea building. It depends like that. Again, I think Rahim Morris is a really good coach. I don't know how, I mean, listen, a lot of the things Brandon Staley was able to do last year, he was able to do because he had Aaron Donald wrecking the game up front and some of those other guys. I mean, there's just a lot there. I think Brandis has been really good defensive coach.

And I'll say this. Rahim Morris was the reason why the Falcons finished 14th and DBOA last year. Yes. Like when he took over, they were a different defense and they were a good defense at times. I would also say overall with Rahim Morris. I think that his, I guess you could say football journey, education, whatever it's been since he got fired in Tampa Bay. He was the DB's coach after in Washington. But then he was a wide receiver's coach for three years with the Falcons.

He was the passing game coordinator for a year before that. He was his head coach with the Falcons. I think that when you get that much exposure to different sides of the ball, I really do think if Rahim Morris has a really good season as terms of coordinator, I think you're going to be looking at him on the top of the short list of head coaching candidates next year. That's my early prediction for that is I really do think that he got probably got a chance a little too early. He was the youngest coach in football when he took over. I think he's really developing into a heck of a coach. And he's only 44 years old.

So it's not like he's over the hill or anything. All right. Niners, 10, 5. Stephen, we already got a preview of kind of how you feel about this team. But let's go with you. I'm going over. and I'm going to take the over on Tray Lance starts at 10.

I would not be surprised if he's starting by the end of September. I wouldn't be surprised if he was starting week one. I know they're dead set on starting Jimmy Garoppolo, but once they get him on the practice field and realize, and Kyle Shannon just realizes what he can do in the run game, he's going to have flashbacks to 2012.

And I don't, I think you can put together an offense for Tray Lance that works, even though he is this raw, You can make that offense work. We saw it with the Eagles kind of last year when they put in Jalen Hertz, where I don't think Jalen Hertz as a quarterback, like as a passer was as good as Carson Wentz, but his running ability opened up things for that offense where they could actually win some games they

weren't supposed to. And I think Lance gives them that. And this is a talented roster. So if they win more games than they're supposed to, I think they win 11 games. I like the phrase. I have to look up who said it. I apologize to whoever I'm stealing this from. but this is not,

Trey Lance is not a scheme fit. It's a scheme expansion for Kyle Shanahan. And they're going to be able to do so many different things that they weren't able to before. Question to kind of to follow up with that. If Treyland starts 10 games, is Jimmy Groplo on the roster in Week 17 or do they try to deal him for whatever they can get?

He's a dead cap of 2.8. I think they trade him. Because I think he's going to be. Try to, yeah. I don't think it's going to be that hard to trade him. It was like, I know the Rams had to give away a lot to get rid of Jericho's reputation is better than

Doss was this past off season and the numbers are just easier to move. Danny Kelly Niners 10.5. I'm going over. Again, I think it's like basically agree with everything you guys said of Trey Lance helping to open up and expand the offense.

I think getting everybody healthy is going to be a big deal. I was looking at the adjusted games loss thing from football outsiders just now and San Francisco ranked number one in adjusted games loss overall. Like obviously they had Kittle, miss big portions of season,

Debo Samuel, some of their key guys on offense, obviously quarterback. And then defensively, they ranked 32nd. So they were dead last, or I guess you could say first in adjusted games loss.

So their defense was the most injured unit in the NFL last year. And they still finished sixth and defensive DVOA miraculously. I don't know how that happened. But basically what I'm saying is this defense is going to be good when they get all their guys back, Nick Bosa back.

I think it's going to be obviously a huge, huge deal for their defensive line. You know, you can see a couple of guys on that defense make a big, big leap in year two, like Javon Kinla. I think it has a ton of potential there. So this is going to be a good defense, I believe. And then the offense could be significantly, significantly better. So this is kind of like a scary team in NFC West. Obviously, people, it's crazy to me that they, what were they, like, 12th,

overall pick or something, they traded up or 10th or something like that, you know, they got this opportunity to go get an elite quarterback, one of the top quarterbacks in the draft. And now they could really change like the fortunes of their franchise. So, yeah, I think I agree with basically everything you guys said in terms of the run game, Trey Lance opening up the ability to, you know, add him as adding in him as a runner makes it like 11 on 11, which has always been a G code last, like in the last decade or so. and Tray Lance is a really good runner. And, you know, I think that I trust Shanahan to coach up that scheme and get the guys the ball in space,

get Kittle and get Debo Samuel and Brandon Ayuk, opportunities to run after the catch. And yeah, this is just going to be a really tough, physical, hard-to-beat team. So I'm going to go, I think 10 wins is right for them. I think 10 and 7 is right for them, especially with the mid-season change to quarterback. I think that that's a playoff team to me. Although we, so we started on the math. still don't know the math of what that means, what 10 and 7 means. But I predict them to make the playoffs in a seven team NFC playoff.

In the least consequential news of all time, Nikiel Harry has requested a trade. Oh. That will not change. Okay. Many over-unders. I'll say that. Think for yourself. Yeah, we're actually taking everybody off the board with like the Packers.

We have to see where Nick Hill is going to go. Seahawks 10. I'll let Stephen start because as you had to do with Panthers, you have to collect your thoughts if we're commenting on your own team because it's so personal. Stephen, Seahawks, 10. I didn't even do any research into this because then Seahawks,

like I'm just going off vibes. Yeah. Which I feel is like what they do. I'm just going to say 11. Sure. 11 sounds right. I'm going to go over. That seems right.

That seems right. That seems right. Danny Kelly, anything other than vibes? Yeah. No, I'm going over also. I think that this is like sort of the drumbeat I've been having all off season is people are overreacting to the Seahawks' offensive woes during the second half of the season last year. Like that was the worst we've seen Russell Wilson play in his entire career. Do you think it's possible they overreacted because their quarterback didn't want to play for the team anymore?

I mean, look, do you think that may have played into it, Daniel? Yeah, maybe a little bit. I think they did some things. I think that maybe in order to appease Russell Wilson get him more optimistic about. this next year. It sounds like he likes the new coordinator, Shane Waldron, who's bringing the RAM style offense to the team. I don't, so like basically what I'm saying is I don't think the CX are

remotely as bad as they were down the stretch last year offensively. And I think defensively, they're not going to be good or elite, but they'll be middle of the pack probably. And assuming they can stay healthy, and I think that's going to be good enough to make them again, like a 10-11 win team. I'm going over just because the CX win like 11 games. it seems like every season.

And, you know, I don't know, are they, they won 12 games last year. I think assuming Russell Wilson stays healthy, this offense is going to be good. And yeah, I think it's just one of those things like the Seahawks are just sort of like the most steady team in the NFL outside of maybe the Patriots had been prior to that. In the cable Thanos hype video, they have to clip you saying that the Seahawks weren't nearly as remotely bad as they were last year on offense. Hype video. Everybody get hyped. We saw the outlier. We saw Russell Wilson throw in ridiculously terrible picks.

Like that doesn't happen. That's not part of his like DNA that hasn't happened in his career. I think we're going to get back to seeing like the normal Russell Wilson next year. So and that's going to be good enough to make them a playoff team. I'd like to push, but I can't because I've been making fun of the pushers the whole the last two episodes. 10 seems right to me. I think I'm just going to go over. They, you know, they have.

They're not going to go through the quarter. quarterback change like the Niners are. I do like the offensive coordinator there, even though he's not as good. He's not going to be as good of a play caller, Kyle Shanahan. I just think that there's, I think that they're a little more settled there.

I think that there's three playoff teams from this division. And I don't think anybody should be surprised by that. All right, guys, anything else? Yeah, just one thing to add, going back to the San Francisco thing, according to forecasted win totals, San Francisco has by far the easiest schedule in the NFL. Is that sharp or is that something else?

Yeah, from sharp football stats. So that could be another like boost for them. And Seahawks are the eighth easiest. So I mean, who knows if that will actually matter as we get into the season because like forecast wind totals are always a little bit off, but take that for what you will. Will the Seahawks give Jabba Adams a big extension? That's the question I want to know. I don't care about their record.

They're going to. They're going to. For better or for worse. Probably for worse. It's the Laramie Tunsel Path. It's the Laramie Tunsel Path where they traded a bunch of picks for a guy without a contract. Now they have to pay them or else they wasted all those picks. If you believe Pete Carroll, he seemed pretty damn certain that they're going to get it done.

Like, during the offseason when he was interviewed, he was like, yeah, we're working on it. It's going to get done. He did not seem remotely worried about the fact that Adams is asking for like an outrageously high contract for the position that he plays. I think Pete Carroll probably he always has been sort of one to think outside the box and maybe go against what all the analytics would say. But yeah, I think it's going to get done. Yeah, we've noticed. In a lot of ways. Yeah, I'm surprised that Pete Carroll seemed optimistic and not bothered, by the way.

Just not like him. Out of character. I vividly remember, I know I did why this stuck my brand. But think about it for years where they said he had a 60 minutes interview when he was at USC. and they said, why are you always so happy? And he said, because something great is always about to happen. That's like he still uses that with the Seahawks. He does?

He didn't just give that to Leslie Stahl or whatever. Oh, yeah. He says, in Russell Wilson, like, he parrots that all the time now. Like, got to believe something great's about to happen. Wow. Yeah. Is it though? Is it though?

Russell was in becoming Pete Carroll, like, as he ages. It's going to be a, just a great transformation to watch. I mean, kind of already. happened. It happened like through half of season into his rookie year, right, Danny? It's morphed to the same person. Yeah. Kevin, US is something great about to happen. Like, think about the incredible, like, this is your thing, but think about the incredible number of like crazy weird Seahawk plays that have happened over like the last X amount of years. They're always, their entire like system, their entire team, the program or whatever, as P would put it, is all about,

buying in believing, you know, something great's going to happen. We're just like one play away, whatever. Like they're all about grit, like persevering, blah, blah, blah. Like, that's why they always play to like, the games come down to the last possession literally every week. I don't know. It's like a big part of their DNA. I think it's like we're making fun of it. We're like joking about it.

But like Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson like truly, truly believe in that stuff. And it shows up. I wrote a whole story about that. and then guess what happened. The Seahawks lost. It doesn't work every time. It was supposed to run the day... It's not failproof.

It was supposed to run the day of the Capitol riots. And so we were just like, we'll just wait until next week to run this. And then they lost. So coming this August. Just publish it anyway. We should publish it during the Capitol riots. Just tweet that out in case you missed it. All right.

So that story will run in like two months. It's already done. You're looking forward to that story, Danny? Hell yeah. I love it. Yeah, it'll be good. All right, Stephen, thank you for joining us on your ringer NFL show debut. You fit right in by trying to push.

You're out pushing Danny Kelly. I would have pushed more. If you invited me on the AFC one, I would have pushed all 16 teams. Next year. Oh, my goodness. Next year, we'll just have it. I'll have you on the best bet show next year. You can just come up with a bunch of bets that you can push on.

All right, that was awesome. Next up on this feed is Flying Coach. I'm not going to say who. the guest is because I don't want to let the cat out of the bag, but it's the best one that they've done. It's you're going to want to listen to it. Uh, thank you to Isaiah Blakely for producing this and additional production by Arjuna Ramcapul. This has been the Ringo-Fel show on the Wringer podcast network.