The Ringer NFL Show - Predicting the 2021 NFL Season With Prop Bets

Episode Date: June 22, 2021

Kevin and Nora are joined by Pro Football Focus’s Eric Eager and Geroge Chahrouri to make predictions for the NFL season by discussing their favorite prop bets (4:40).  Hosts: Kevin Clark and Nora Princiotti Guests: Eric Eager and George Chahrouri Production Assistant: Isaiah Blakely Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The postseason is here and the Ringer NBA show has you covered with real ones, group chat, the answer, and Ringer NBA post game. Check out the Ringer NBA show on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It is the Ringer NFL show, part of the Ringer Podcast Network. I'm Kevin Clark, joined by Noel Prince of Adi, Nora. What's going on? Not much, Kevin. She got back from Chicago, having a nice time.

Happy to be plotting. Back in the swing of things. Is it part of the three weeks summer in Chicago? Yeah, actually, I think one of the, like, 15 days that they get took place over the weekend. I was at a bachelor's party. We went out on the lake. It was a delightful time, actually.

We were joined by two of our favorite people, Eric Eager from Pro Football Focus and his colleague, George to hurry. George, you were just telling us why you bet on Bryson Deschambeau. Why don't you enlighten us? Yeah, you know, you wrote a really nice piece about Bryson that you once replied in a thread on Twitter to me that forced me to read again and reminded me again how much, you know, Bryson DeChambeau irks me. and I legitimately placed a bet on him yesterday just in the hopes that exactly what happened would happen, that he would collapse.

And I was worried because he started off hot and I was like, oh, man, I might actually win this bet. I was like, oh, that's the whole purpose of this, the little hedge there. I'm sorry if I, if I ruined your U.S. Open experience by kiboshing Bryson's chances. Can I push back on that a little bit? because Bryson is the data guy. The whole thing, he likes to say, he has a thing that sounds like it's straight from a PFF podcast. He said the reason he's doing everything he's doing is so that he can be the house and the house always wins.

You go 30 yards on a drive. It's all driven by big data. So if he were, if he were a NFL media company, it might just be pro football focused. So I'm saying. Counterpoint to that, my own point, he's annoying and a dork. That actually tells you exactly what we're. need to fix about pro football focus right there in one sentence is we need to be less like Bryson and more like who's another guy that hits it long and doesn't annoy the living hell

out of people yeah Brooks Cameron Champ Cameron Champ um be long off the day I yeah I also cannot stand the the way that it's covered as if he's like a superhuman no no he actually is just like a slightly overweight guy that swings really freaking hard. When this was first happening, I was playing golf with Mark Titus, and I was talking about how interesting I thought this all was. And Titus said, oh, wow, I never thought to hit the piss out of the ball until Bryson said, oh, wow, this is, it would be really smart play to hit the ball far, which I think about a lot. Eric Eager, what's going on?

Have we seen this in the NFL, too, though, where it's like five years ago, everybody's like, oh, analytics says passing's good. Yeah. And then, like, you know, five years. years later, we're all like, well, it's probably like more like run play action passes and and throw the ball out of jet sweep formations and stuff like that. So I think we've all come around to the sort of data revolution where first to the learned and people in the sport, it sounds stupid, but then it ends up, you know, we can we can still glean from the data there.

George was trying to explain to me why Des Chimbo is not very good. And I, it's sort of glossed over me on a previous podcast other than to bet against him, which which was profitable. The biggest issue is that he drives, like, is it a green one? Kevin, you may know the color. It's like a green Bentley or something. And if you follow him on social, orange. Orange. And if you fall on social media, it's like, it's honestly, it's the account that I love to hate the most because it's, you just have to do it. You have to check out. That's upsetting. There's a TikTok event that I believe has been taken down at this point where he gets. So Kings of Leon is blaring in the video. He made himself. He made him himself. Kings of Leon is blaring. and then he gets off his private jet,

walks to his, I thought it was an orange Bentley, but it also might be, I'm seeing three different types of bentley's with Bryson here, which actually might be a symptom, not the disease. And then, yeah, yeah, there is a green one,

you're right. And then there's a blue one and a gray one. And then the subtitle is the drive to 208, which is the ball speed that he's trying to get on the track man when he does it. So it would be the equivalent of like an NFL quarterback being like, all I care about is ball velocity and then branding himself like that. Sounds cool, right? Anyway, let's do a football podcast.

So we have a great show lined up today. It is essentially, it's one of our favorite shows we got last year with Danny Kelly and Sheila Kapadia. And what was funny about it, because I was re-listing to it just to make sure I had some of the topics right. The first question was over-under games played in front of fans. and it got really heated. The line was 0.5. So we're doing player props, best bets, all that stuff as a way to preview the NFL season.

And I think this is just really interesting discussion points. We can just go in any direction. And that's what I love. So we're going to do our two favorite bets in any genre. The only thing we're not doing on this show is Super Bowl and over under win total and those sort of team accomplishment type things. but anything else is on the table and then we're going to go through over under

on player specific props that are really fun got a great list. Cole Beasley 0.5 shots taken is our first one. We're not doing that. I was going to say you said it wasn't going to get dark or contested and then you led with that. Well, you know.

We got to just power through. We got to move on. It's analytics. It's analytics. All right. So we're going to start with the best bets. We'll start with you, Eric. your number one favorite bet of 2021.

On our podcast, the BFF forecast, George and I often will compete with each other to see who can hate the Eagles more. Eagles fans will always be number one. You cannot out-hate Eagles fans, but you can try. There's a bet. I think it's 13 to 1 on Fanduel, 14 to 1 in other books. I like the Eagles to have the worst record in the NFL. Oh, all right. Let's lay this out.

It's a good discussion point. I'm glad you're doing it. What is the path for this? Is this Jalen Hurst not being very good? Is this Nick Siriani not being an NFL head coach? Is it just a lack of roster talent? What are we looking at here? I mean, it's like the classic sort of Siriani,

like George on our show, like, proposed Siriani, the Siriani bet to be like the first head coach fired. I think it's pretty aggressive given that he's, like, hasn't even coached the game yet. But I sort of, I feel it a little bit like they got, brought over Shane Steichen from the LA Chargers, but I think is pretty good,

but they're not having him call plays. And so then you have this, and we've seen this over and over again, where an offensive coordinator who doesn't call plays gets the head coach job, and because of ego decides that he needs to call the plays, which he's never done effectively before. So now he's doing two jobs.

He's never done before. And like, to me, I think that's a sneaky part of like why I don't think they'll be very good. I think you look at the NFC East. Dallas has an elite quarterback and I think an underrated team altogether. I think the Giants are going to be pretty good. That's going to come up in my prop bets. And I think Washington's everybody's darling right now.

And if for nothing else, we saw the Eagles like never lose to the Washington football team or the Giants for like five straight years. That's like how they got to nine and seven all those years. I think that the tables get turned here and the Eagles end up being this punching bag. And we see a team with, you know, a division with no teams over seven wins last year, now have three teams that at least have like a two-win padding, you know, on their records because, you know, of an Eagles team that I don't think is very good on defense. The one league, I think, is their offensive lines can be better than last year.

But, you know, that has limited capacity when the wide receivers are not quite that good. And I don't see Smith as well as Rager coming on with a quarterback like Jalen Perts in year two. Before we continue on this path, two weeks ago, Danny Kelly came on this podcast and gave a lot of Jalen Hertz hype. And if you're an Eagles fan who's about to get really mad at us, just go and listen to that over and over again because we're about to go into a dark, you didn't want to go to a dark place, George, but we're about to go to a dark, dark, dark Eagles discussion. Nora? Well, I have a question that that feeds into that or is related to that. If say this does come true, Sirion is the first coach fired, I assume that that means an in-season firing. If that's the case, do you think that's more likely to happen if Jalen Hertz is a disaster or if he's kind of good? Like, is that a move because everything is going wrong?

Or is that a move because, whoa, we might have something here and we can't let this guy totally screw it up? I think it's more likely if it's a disaster because there'll be reticence to break up something, even if it has nothing to do with serianning. They'll be like, well, things are going kind of decent. Like, let's not get him out of the way quite yet. So I think it's slightly in favor if things are a disaster. But part of my reasoning why I like that bed at 50 to 1 is exactly where I think your head is at, which is he's not the long-term answer. And you want to be at the forefront of interviewing guys that are.

So I don't think that Jalen Hertz playing well actually gets rid of that situation where Siriani is the first guy fired and it's 50 to 1, like, you know, there with guys that are, there's no chance they're getting fired. So I agree with you that like, Jalenhurts playing well doesn't get rid of that option. But the thing that the problem with the Eagles here is that Peterson was fired last, right? And the sort of like litter had already been picked by some of these teams. Siriani just to me strikes me as like a, you know, intermediate candidates for this position. But if that's the case, I mean, you're, you can sort of have him coach the rest of the games out,

especially if he's bad and you and you want to go after that number one pick. Like it's probably better for him to coach the rest of the season out if he's garbage. And then like teams have not shied away from like picking around it at possible head coaches while their guy is still there. Like I think this is a possible and that's why I agree with you, George, that like Siriani might just be a one year guy. But he is not, he was not this preferred choice. Like their preferred choice if they were going to get rid of Peterson would who have done so early and then have the pick of the litter. before everybody else did, but that simply wasn't their reality. But I don't, I don't see like a midseason firing doing it.

And that being said, like, to Norris' point, the interesting thing about the Eagles, the last time they had a midseason firing was not because the team was bad. It was because they had relatively high expectations with Chip Kelly, and he did not, like fulfill those at all. The Andy Reed year, they were terrible, like three and 13, 12 or four and 12, and they let him sort of play that string out before hiring Kelly. So it is an interesting one. I just don't see it happening.

I can see that, like I said, I like them being bad, like the worst team in the NFL more than I like them being like firing their coach because, you know, the odds are better. Like 50 to 1 is better than 14, 13 or 14 to 1. But the competition is more stiff, I think, for the first head coach to be fired. So real compliment for the Houston Texans here with this. I mean, that division isn't very good. Is it like, I feel like, you know, we've seen this before. Tyrod Taylor, like that Buffalo, I remember Buffalo Bills went to Minnesota,

had a home game against Minnesota in the preseason of 17. And then the next day, they traded Sammy Watkins. They traded Ronald Darby. They're like, we're done on this season. And Tyrod somehow got that team to nine and seven and in the playoffs. Like, I feel like Taylor is very like Teddy Bridgewater

in the sense of like, I don't know what you're doing here if we're tanking. Like, why are we winning five games with you like this? But I feel like that's what Houston can do. And the AFC is weird and that the ASC is very top-heavy, but I think the NFC has more teams that can beat bad teams consistently. Like if you're looking at the AFC, you have teams like the Jaguars, the Jets, you know, teams that I, Denver, who I think will talk about,

teams like that could totally lose to a Houston team, whereas I think in the NFC there are fewer teams that I think could consistently lose to the Eagles. But also, to go to a dark place, there's a chance to Sean Watson plays football games. this season and there's a chance that no one is going to trade for him and like both those things combine you know like well i also think there's a chance and this you know member after the the davis mills pick in the middle of the draft last two months ago Daniel jeremiah basically said

that the expectation is that that Watson never plays another snap um and that could mean for the texans excuse me for the texans yeah that could mean a trade eventually but they could also mean he's put on some sort of commissioners exemplist and is on the roster in 2020 it just never is in the facility, never, never takes a snap. I don't. You'd have to be on it for the whole season, though. Yeah. Yes.

Yes. But unless everything is resolved, that is totally possible. But it has happened that guys have been on for 14, 15, 16 weeks in the past, especially if something happens in September, a disciplinary thing. I disagree with you, Eric, to the point that my favorite bet, I'm just going to do this real quick just to just to keep the flow of the conversation. station going because it's the same topic. Plus 3,000.

Houston Texans go 0 and 17. So FoxFet has four teams on this prop. The Lions, which I do not think are going to go 0 in 17. I actually kind of like Dan Campbell. The Jaguars,

which I don't think there's any chance of that. And then the Jets, which I find to be strange. And I almost think that they're there just because it's people associate the Jets with losing. I don't think that they're going to go old in 17 or even be all that bad. There's probably just an Excel function to slot them in there every year. I did some prep for that. I actually went into our simulation and found like the number of simulations where the team goes

0 in 17. Houston goes 0 in our simulation three out of every 1,000. So 33 times in 10,000 simulation. I like those odds. Detroit goes 0 in 17, 11 times. Philly does it four times. And then some unit, like so Chicago did it once. Denver had it once.

New England did it once. Our Georgia's favorite team did it once. Washington did it once and the Minnesota Vikings, of course. The Vikings have to come out of a simulation with zero wins in some universe. You heard it here first. The Patriots could go home in 17. Nora hates the Steelers so much. She's going to bet the Steers girl in 17 this year, aren't you, Nora?

Okay. I don't hate the Steelers. I don't think they'll be very good. Those are different things. I have no animosity in my heart towards the Pittsburgh Steelers. Nor ran the simulation 10,000 times. I am the simulation. We all got Dr. Strange stuff going on here.

Okay, so the Texans to me, obviously they just have no roster talent. I'm with you, George. There's obviously a huge question about Deshaun Watson. I don't think he's going to play a snap for them this year, just from reading the key leaves with the reporting situation and just how the NFL tends to handle this stuff. And then the coaching staff, I just don't, I mean, there is a reporter who reported after our colleagues hired that he had reached out to people inside the league. And all of them would just be like, you know, great guy, all time guy.

And they'd be like, is he a good coach? You'd be like, ah, great dude. You know, it was like that kind of thing. And that was the vibe around the league is I just don't know. I think this is a hire that you make when there's no other hires to be made. Tottenham Hotspur right now is doing this in England. where they just can't find anybody managed the team. And you end up with your eighth, ninth choice or whatever,

but people just won't take a call. And so if I had to bet an Owen 17 one, it would be the Texans. Any other candidates there for you guys? For Owen 17? Well, look, I'm just disappointed as Nora is, too, that the Steelers are not an option because, look, I've gone, now I have to go, I have to dive all the way into it. I had the same speech as you, Nora, like last year around week 12.

I was like, look, I don't actually hate the Steelers. I just called them the most overrated team in the NFL, and I happened to be completely right. But there's nothing to do with me hitting your team. Now I've just leaned into it. And people like, oh, you hate the Steelers. Like, yeah, I freaking hate the Steelers. And I don't even know why.

It's just something about the way they look. Here's my problem. I love Tomlin. Like, I'm uncomfortable with doing that to Mike Tomlin. I'm comfortable with doing it to almost every other part of the team. But I just have this little thing where I see his face in my mind's eye and go, ooh, ooh, maybe. Whereas when you see Big Ben's face, it's just not.

No, I'm very comfortable. You don't have symbol or empathy. When that is the mental image, I'm very comfortable with the take. Here's one. I know Detroit's on here. I think Detroit is weirdly very, could be the worst team in the NFL, but has almost no chance of going winless because Chicago is going to lose to them, Minnesota will lose to them, something.

and like Dan Campbell's like optimize that team not for like it's weird he's optimized that team to be respectable in year one and not necessarily like long term a winner much like Matt ruled did the same thing with Carolina last year we optimize that team for we'll get wins and we'll will not be a complete embarrassment but we're not going to be any good by the way I just want to say on the Steelers thing that Mike Tomlin has never lost more than eight games in the season. but he used to have a quarterback that could throw. But there have been large patches of the season sometimes where he's just rolling on anybody a quarterback. I'm saying they're going to be okay this year. Yeah, but sometimes those patches of the season are where they lose games. The Steelers have the toughest schedule this year for our metrics. I do think, I do think the really hard thing for people to grasp about the Steelers

is exactly what you all are talking about, which is that Tomlin has never had a losing season. The quarterback that we all say sucks right now is a Hall of Fame quarterback who they've always had, right? And he's almost a different person now. He has been since he came back from the elbow injury. And they've literally had one losing season since I was in middle school. So we're talking about just we have never internalized Steelers being bad almost forever.

And I think that that is clouding a lot of people's judgment, not necessarily here, but like in the especially the Steelers media, they love to go after George and the fan base as well. I will say like one thing that I was thinking about Steelers. And I hope that I get more retweets from Steelers players this year. That's a barometer for success for me. But they're thinking about this season, like home field advantage was not existent last year. And you think about stadiums where not only will there be

home field advantage that's above average, but also where they're going to come back with a vociferousness that maybe they didn't have before. And that's probably not even a word. But it is now. Pittsburgh would be a place that I would, would bank on that happening. Like, you know, like maybe San Francisco or Los Angeles where people have things to actually

do other than go to a football game, that might not be the case. But Pittsburgh, like, that's a lovely place. Hanging off of tree. You know, that city. So I think their home field advantage will improve. At PFF underscore George, that is George talking. That is no one else in this podcast. I'm here for it.

I can handle it. All right. PFF underscore George. What's your top bet? All right. I'm leaning positively. You guys went very negative, very dark place. And I'm here to be a ray of sunshine, a little bit of light to the conversation.

I love, I love this bet. And I've loved it for so long. I can't believe it's still available. It's available on Foxx bet. Tom Brady is 16 to 1 to win the NFL MVP. Let me go ahead and tell you who's ahead of him. Mahomes is the favorite plus 550. Aaron Rogers would be a repeat currently does not want to play for the team that he's on is 10 to 1.

Josh Allen, bless his heart, fantastic season last year, had two seasons prior where he was not accurate with football is 11 to 1. Dak Prescott, who was amazing last year in the few games that he played, I expect him to come back strong, is 15 to 1. Matthew freaking Stafford. This Matthew Stafford, the one of the one. that has played for the Lions forever, is 16 to 1, as is Tom Brady. That is a slap in the face. It is disrespectful to a great American human who also happened to have the highest PFF grade since the buy last year.

He was absolutely amazing. And I think people credit the defense a lot as they should. Todd Bowles was fantastic. Go watch Tom Brady throw the football. This guy is a top three quarterback. He has everyone coming back. He's one of the deepest receiving course and improving offensive line.

Tom Brady, 16 to 1 with MVP, is a steel. Did you guys see the Tom Brady shop thing this morning? No. So Tom Brady went on the shop with LeBron and Co. And said, he was talking about his Freedency last year. And he said, quote, one of the teams they weren't interested at the very end.

And I was thinking, you're sticking with that mother effort. And now there's a whole rate. to figure out who exactly he was talking about. Because we know, you know, it was the Niners, the Chargers, the Raiders were in that mix. I mean, there weren't a whole lot of teams. I think that the Titans at one point were rumored to be in there. So there's a quarterback right now who is the mother effort,

and there's a hunt to figure out who it is. Anyway. It has to be Jimmy G. Yeah, it's got to be Jimmy. Probably. Actually, my new favorite best bet, Kevin, is if you can find a market for it, that mother referee is talking about is Jimmy G.

put all the money I just put on MVP. I'm splitting it with this bet. Nora, Tom Brady MVP. So George and I are in a mind meld, apparently, because that was also, that was also my best bet. I'll throw something else into the, into the stew here, but I absolutely love it. I just think it's, it's, it's preposterous relative to where the other guys are. And you've got to imagine, we talked for so long and so many times last season about how it would probably hurt Brady in the books to go through such a strange off season and not have the continuity

that everybody else did or that so many other teams did. Clearly it didn't hurt as much as we thought it was, but I'm not willing to completely just seed that take that it was meaningless. And now they don't have to deal with any of that. And that's actually, so I'll throw out another one here, because if I hadn't, if I hadn't picked Brady for MVP, the other one that I was looking at was Baker Mayfield plus 3,500 for MVP, which I just think is, is another one where the odds are ridiculous because that's the same as Derek Henry. It's worse than Ryan Tannahill. Like, these are guys that, sure, I can see it happening, but I don't see them on as good of a team. You know, it's a narrative award. So I don't think that the position where everybody's

talking about the team, they're going to make a big playoff push, people are talking about what a big difference the quarterback made or the individual players ability to be great. Baker Mayfield after week seven of last year was one of the best quarterbacks in football is getting Odell Beckham Jr. back. We'll have the first season in his NFL career where he's not adjusting to a new head coach and learning a new system and is also a guy who tends to stay pretty healthy. He's made 47 consecutive starts for the Browns. So in both of those cases, I think one thing that I'm latching on to is, okay, sure, maybe we overestimated how much it was going to make a difference these guys not having a normal offseason and having to get used to new coaches, new play callers,

new players, whatever. But continuity still matters. And I think in both of those cases, especially when you factor in guys like Rogers who have so much uncertainty around them being among the favorites. It's just those were two that made my head tilt to the side looking at who they're in the same kind of range as. I will say this. I will say this that the Rogers will put big air quotes around the uncertainty is that he himself decided he doesn't want to play for the team anymore. Yeah. Hard to win the MVP award if you don't play. No, no. I'm just saying it's like I'd be really funny if that was a narrative going in. It's like, wow, a lot of uncertainty swirling on Rogers. I agree with you, Nora, inasmuch is that I, I, we talked about it all last summer.

Tom Brady wants to know where everything is. He wants to know, you know, the story I always tell is that Tony Gonzalez told me he worked out with him at UCLA 15 years ago or 10 years ago. And, you know, if he was half an inch off a 30-yard pass in the dead of summer, he would say, oh, that's going to kill the yards after catch. You know, and that's, this is the guy. That's how he operates. And now he's got that back.

got that capacity to get those sort of workouts back. Eric, what do we think with the MVP? Yeah, I like the Mayfield one more than I like the Brady one at those odds. And here's why, and I've talked to George about this on our show. Here's the Bucks finishing schedule. Or this, and I think it was well said, it's a narrative award. Bucks go to Saints that they're going to sting. At Washington, Mets, Giants, Colts, Falcons, Bills, that might be a Sunday night game.

Saints, Panthers, Jets, Panthers. There's a bunch of noon central games on that schedule that are not going to be flex. Whereas when you go to Cleveland, they have a home and home with the Ravens, you know, Thanksgiving weekend. And then the following week, then they go Raiders and then at Packers, at Steelers, presumably those teams will still be relevant. And then they close with the Bengals. There are more opportunities, I think, for the world that votes for this award to see Mayfield. and his expectations, as everybody said, are a little bit lower. I also think the Browns are going to, being a smart team,

throw the football a little bit more this year to find out what they have in Bayfield. And so we could see such an elevation in his numbers relative to last year where they had three games in like Snow Nami's and another game where they had no wide receivers. I think the bump in his statistics might be enough to sort of elevate that narrative towards an MVP should they win, you know, 12, 13 games. I don't hate it. I don't hate it. And I'm not going to give way my second bet.

But I will just say this. If your reasoning is that Tom Brady won't make it into the public eye because he's beating up on crappy teams, my friend, SportsCenter will cover Tom Brady throwing five touchdowns against us five. Okay. We're going to be good. We're going to be good. Tom Brady's going to get his pub.

I can't wait to watch George produced Panthers Fox on Sunday Night Football Week 15. It's so much fun. I will say this, George. One thing I agree with you on is that I think because it's a narrative award, if Tom Brady's in a tie with a handful of other quarterbacks, the voters are absolutely going to give it to Tom Brady. If it's a tie between Brady and Josh Allen and Mahomes and no one can figure it out, it's going to Brady because voters want to give it to the old guy because it's a better story. Yeah, the old, the age thing is massive, right? Like he is every man in their 40s to 50s is like, this gives me hope, man. Like the fact that he's turning back the clock at this age.

That's actually a lot of MVP voters in that age range. Yeah. Might be a fairly compelling thing he's got going for him. Also, similar to George wanting to have a new favorite bet on Jimmy G. being the mother ever, I want to have a new favorite bet on Josh Allen being the quarterback who people say bless his heart about more than anybody else. It's already one on this podcast. Yep.

Yeah. It's no other quarterback people say that about. It's just it's Josh all the time. Just bless his heart. Eh, Drew Laugh. Is he like, what's a different category? Almost Tebow with talent, right? In that way. Like, yeah, he, he, is, T, with some accuracy.

That is Josh Allen. Now I'm racking my brain for who I would put up there. Keebo was always like, oh, he sucks, but less is hard. He runs hard through the hole on those like Reed keeps, right? Like, and now with Allen, it's like kind of the same thing, although Alan's actually good. I feel like Kendall Hinton broke the record for a single day, plus his heart last year when he was just running around playing quarterback. It might be, uh, Tarrad Taylor might be a good one for this year. That poor man is going to, uh, yeah. That's a great one.

Uh, Eric, bet number two. Okay. I like this and this one, we're going to talk about the Patriots who have one simulation when they go on 17. I like Cam Newton

minus 185 to start week one. I think short of a Jacksonville like 07 situation where they like it's so pissed with him that they cut him. Like there's no like they're starting him week one if he's healthy. And so

and I think that 65% break even. I think I think there's more than a two-thirds chance he starts week one. If he gets beat out by Mac Jones, I still think they're going to start him unless he's beat out so badly that they have to cut him. Nora, week one. I think it's closer to 50-50.

The part that I know I disagree with is I think if Mac Jones beats him out, Mac Jones is starting. I think the hiring of Brian Hoyer to me was when I just started feeling like they want to fast-track Mac Jones to whatever extent they possibly can. And I don't know if that has to do with Cam Newton's health. I don't know if that has to do with the type of offense that they would prefer to run. I don't know what that is, but the spitey senses for them being willing to do something a little bit differently with Mac Jones, who was drafted in a position that's different from any other that they've drafted a quarterback in. I don't think that, I don't think Bill is going to

hold Mac Jones back sort of on principle. or because we don't anoint rookies in this way here. I think there's already been enough going on. And by the way, I don't, you know, who cares? It's June. I thought that was going to go in a direction of a different take of just like, who cares who the Patriots?

Who cares who starts? They're going on in 17. So, no. Who cares? It's June. But it doesn't sound as though Kim Newton's been lighting the world on fire down there and also has been dealing with a little hand injury.

but I don't think that the thing that I feel most strongly about is that they would be willing to break precedent for Mack Jones if he's genuinely seems like the better quarterback in training camp. I wanted to say you mentioned like the hand injury. I'm a keen observer of social media, probably too much in making evaluations on how off seasons are going for for players. I am, every other video that Cam Newton Post puts me in a different direction. So like, one, I'll be like, okay, this seems really self-absorbed and like another, you know, him walking out of a room in this cool outfit and then giving a speech and he's always smoking a cigar. Like that concerns me. Like, I wouldn't smoke that many cigars if I were trying to win a start job.

But then I'll see him working out and he's a superhuman. and you go, dude, you're telling me this guy is going to lose a starting job in the game of football to this guy? Like the comparison between the two of them is so shocking visually. And I have a hard time seeing that not play out in a setting where, yes, Bill Belichick is super pragmatic and all those things. But they're also still playing the game of football where you look at Cam Newton and you look at Mac Jones. You go, I got to start that guy. He's a way better athlete. George, I love that you're the only guy watching Cam Newton offseason

Instagram videos like other people watch Wanda Vision, just develop fan theories. You're the fan theory guy. You should do recaps of all his videos. I do it for the draft, too. I follow all of the top prospects and maybe others that are close to them. And I evaluate thoroughly. We write algorithms around George's copious notes of those observations. Wow.

Okay, that was something else. All right. Nora, your second bet. Daniel Jones over 3,685 passing yards. It's minus 110. George and Eric are both nodding along. Like, this is a great pick. So I'm interested to see this.

All right, go ahead. Okay, it's kind of absurd. So Daniel Jones had 2,493 passing yards last season in 14 games. That's 210 passing yards per game. 3,685 divided by 17 is 216 yards a game. So he needs six more per game and to have good health and play a full season. Adding someone like Cadarius Tony who can get yards after the catch on all the quick game stuff they do, I feel like that alone should be worth an extra six yards per game.

This one, just the numbers on it are absurd to me. I don't think that Daniel, this take is not Daniel Jones is going to come out here and light the world on fire. This take is just that they had absurdly poor weapons last season. And adding Kenny Galday, Tony, having Sequin, I just don't see how that doesn't get over that bar. It seems almost mathematically impossible that it goes the other way. We both talked about this on the show Sunday.

This is honestly my favorite prop bets, like on a player level, you know, because I think one of the things, and we were, the only, the only leak here is Jason Garrett. But the problem is, I think the perception of Jason Garrett as a coach is skewed in the sense that, like, he's, Jason Garrett has always sort of like made things competent. And then when you wanted to make things elite, he was disappointing. And in many ways, he's the Cliff Kingsbury, you know, of certain, uh, offensive play calling. That's the first time that comparison's ever been made. I'm sure Jason Garrett is going to feel very honored. be just as far as vibes go.

Yeah, I mean, Kingsbury took a team that was like the worst football team in the NFL and made them average. And then once we got our hopes up for the Cardinals last year and we wanted to get him over the hump, he was bad. And like Garrett was an eight and eight coach and, you know, perpetually would have some 12th and sports seasons. But when you really wanted, when you really needed him to make a play or something like that, it was, was not there.

But if you just need him to sort of increase production over time, I think, you know, Goladay being one of the best, you know, sort of bad ball receivers in the football. Tony, you know, relieving some stress at the after the catch-up. Kyle Rudolph in the red zone might actually be a thing, which is why his touchdown prop is also good. And their defense, I think, is going to be good, but regress enough where they're going to be in games that aren't 17, 16, as much as they were last year. And hence are going to force him, they'll be good enough to be in games, but not good enough to sort of make it so that they think they can win. 16 to 9. And so I think that all of those come together and make that a very good bet. I mean, my question is basically like, are they able to get anything explosive going, right?

Because they have Tony who's so fast. Goladay is a great downfield receiver because of his contested catchability. The offensive line is bad and isn't going to be able to block super effectively for a ton of those situations. I don't know if Daniel Jones and Garrett are just going to sort of compliment each other and just want to do like little quick fire stuff all the time and not even really try or if they'll try more and it'll go well or poorly. Like all of those, there's a lot of variance in the possible outcomes there to me. I just don't think that any of them don't add six yards per game. Like, again, it's just there's got to be something there.

I think that this is a Daniel Jones play 17 games question. That's the take because if it's just a math problem and it is, it's whether or not he's healthy and he plays well enough to to play 17 games over full season. That that's it. George, the Giants. Yes, I was going to say this about Daniel Jones. The narrative, and this is what's so important, and I think about this with fantasy football too, because I would like Daniel Jones by playing a two quarterback league as a second quarterback. The narrative was he stunked last year because it was touchdown interception ratio. his PFF grade was tied for 17.

Touchdown interception ratio is a horrible way to think about how well a quarterback played. And it was 11 to 10, which is pretty terrible. He played a lot better than that. He also runs the ball effectively. You get Sequin, who is really a great receiver back. That receiving court is genuinely good. The office line cannot be worse. I think it's a cinch.

And I think Daniel Jones is a great candidate for, for making people maybe more excited about the Giants heading into next year the following season than they maybe should be because I think he has the nice rebound and it's seen as this massive jump. Yeah, he could have a Bordal's 2017 season, right?

He could have... That's real. He could have a season where, like, we're all jumped like Trubisky in 2000 and whatever 18 that was, like where he's not actually good, but a good defense and an okay schedule, like makes him look fine. Like for all those purposes, like that doesn't matter.

This bet isn't about how good Daniel Jones is. It's about the output, which we don't care how it gets there, I think. Eric bailed compliment may be one of my favorite things. That was incredible. Yes. So 18 fumbles his first year, 11 fumbles last year, tops in the NFL by a wide margin. He's already 30th among active players in fumbles because of how much he's fumbled in this first two years with 29.

that to me concerns me. And I kind of think there might be times because of how often he turns over the ball that things get kind of low there. And that they have games where they just get blown out because he turns the ball over a total of three times or whatever. So you combine the interceptions and the fumbles. It was 21 turnovers last year. That's just too many for a guy like that who doesn't have the high upside where he can make up for it. Anyway, last best bet, George.

I thought this was going to get stolen from me because Nora seems to be reading my notes, which I applaud you for hacking into my computer and doing so if you did. Baker Mayfield. We're going to talk more about Baker Mayfield because I like the 35 to 1 MVP, but that's still a long shot. You know, what's something that he can do that's going to happen more frequently? And that means throwing the ball well and completing passes for yards. 3750.5 is his total here. And that is way too low.

It's just way, way, way too low. Go watch Baker Mayfield play football, especially in the playoffs. And you will see a guy that was not good, but great throwing the football. Overall last season, fifth in PFF grade from a clean pocket, which is one of the most stable metrics from year to year. he was legitimately good, even when they did not run play action in the playoffs. He had two grades over 80 in the playoffs. And I think that confidence allows Stapansky to open up the playbook just a little bit more.

And he doesn't need, as Nora was talking about, like, you don't need to add a lot here. He had 3,500 and 63 yards last year in a situation where, as Eric astutely pointed out on our podcast, really bad weather games, bad luck there, where they just had to run the ball. They had that COVID outbreak where no receivers were there in New York. And like, that was a disaster. You just take those things out and bring them back to average. He is clearing 37, 5 and a half easily. I mean, this is easy money.

You go to pff.com and look at our projections for, for quarterbacks and passing yards. And this one like sticks out like a sore thrum. we have in well over 4,2.50. I had to put Tom Brady is my favorite because it's Tom Freaking Brady, but this one is close. Eric, how good are the Browns going to be in 2021? I think that they could really challenge with it. I think that there's way more risk at the quarterback position with the Ravens, who are this other best team in that division than there is with Cleveland,

only in the sense that, like, protection is going to be better for Baker Mayfield, than it is Lamar Jackson. I think just like accuracy is probably better for Baker Mayfield, even though I think if you look at completion percentage and stuff, it's not quite as good. I think he has more upside there. And, you know, we're going to see Odell Beckham Jr. Like this is going to be a situation where they can be quite good.

And the defense is going to provide a lot of, they're not going to have to like put training wheels on the offense for concerns about the defense anymore. I think the defense will be pretty good. So I think the Browns, I mean, it's going to be Kansas City in the AFC and then it's here below. But I think Cleveland, Buffalo, and Baltimore, to me, are interchangeable as far as who could be the second best team in the AFC. Nora, you've done it on this podcast before, specifically with the Bengals and the Steelers, but handicapped the top of the AFC North for me.

I like the Browns better than Ravens. Why? Like, literally those are the reasons. I think the offensive line is better. I mean, they're fantastic at scheming that in Baltimore, but I just really trust the talent there. And I don't think that people recognize how good of a quarterback Baker Mayfield was towards the end of the season last year. I just say this is not an insult to Lamar Jackson, who I think is fantastic. I think Baker Mayfield is better.

Can I add to that? Like, I would also take the Lamar Jackson passing over yardage total. That would be my second option if someone had stolen Baker Mayfield from me. And Lamar Jackson is a singularly talented quarterback. I have not a ton of fate that the Ravens scheme offensively. is going to accentuate that to the extent that it had a couple years ago. I'm concerned about that. Whereas on the other side, like, Stefansky is going to be a force multiplier for Baker

Mayfield and that offense. And so that, that to me would, would, you know, is what leads me to think the same thing. I don't know if they should be the favorite. I think they should be right there neck and neck. You don't see that in, in Vegas, obviously. But I'm with Nora there. The other thing is I'm not going to hang my. had on this because it's a lot of it would have to do with the interceptions and just who knows

that stuff is random. But what the Browns did for their secondary this off season, I think is really, really, really impressive. And I can absolutely see situations where Baker Mayfield has really short fields, a decent chunk of times, like enough more than the average quarterback to make a difference. The interesting thing, and this is where like I like the Ravens too on offense, I think Lamar is a fantastic talent. I think in the AFC, you know, this year, you're going to have two teams who are very sharp, who have waited until now because they've seen the issues that the Eagles went through with Wens, the Rams went through a golf, like they're not, I think there's less of a chance that those two guys could sign before the season

than many believe. And as such, you're going to see, I think, more throwing because we both teams want to see more data on those quarterbacks. And the Ravens are sort of defensive in their offense in the sense that when you look at like investments, they were like two-thirds defense, one-third offense dollar-wise last year. And their offense was very much the last two seasons, a combination where you look at the winds above replacement, it's evenly distributed among O-line men, running backs, tight ends, and to a certain degree wide receivers.

And like those systems are fragile, right? And we saw that last season when you had COVID, you had some injuries to Lamar, you had some ineffectiveness to Lamar. That thing didn't necessarily, you know, deal with perturbations that well. Whereas an offense that's more focused on the quarterback and the play caller, much like Cleveland is, I think can withstand things

like an Odell injury. It can withstand things like offensive linemen coming off the street to play playoff games like last season. And long term, I would select for something like that over something that the Ravens had, even if when all those things click, it's certainly fun to watch what happens in Baltimore. And the flip side of being able to withstand something like an Odell Beckham injury, I do think that there's at least a hope that with more confidence, more time in the system, better understanding of what the head coach wants, better relationship with the head coach. Maybe that helps Baker with that thing where he will force the ball to one receiver if he feels like he has to. But that got spun into like O'Dell Beckham Jr. is bad.

He's a good receiver. Like that should help them. So there's just so much that's baseline to be confident in that you start to see all of those sort of extra things going potentially very well. And also is sort of a part of a low-grade version of the Brady thing. Like Kevin Stefansky's ability to get that team going in the right direction on a very weird off-season with very limited practice time and all that stuff. He gets some semblance of a real training camp this year. Odell and Baker are going to be able to actually learn and develop some chemistry within that system. So I anticipate a pretty big step forward. I mean, the thing was Stefansky is there was always going,

whoever got that job after Hugh Jackson and Freddie Kitchens, who was competent, was going to have a, the error was pointing up. It had to. The roster was really good after, what, three different GMs. But Kevin's Tafansky is really good. Like, they didn't have to be that good last year. They didn't have to win a playoff game.

And so I really, I really like this Browns team. Again, I did something I said in this podcast a couple times. but I don't think that they're on sort of the Chiefs level, but I think they can, they might be able to scare the Chiefs this year in January. All right, this one's easy for me, and this actually might have the worst odds out of anybody. But I don't see any other option.

It's Jack Prescott plus 165 to one comeback player of the year. So the odds for comeback player of the year, Dak Prescott plus 165, and Nick Bosa, Joe Burrow, Christian McCaffrey, Saquin, Barclay, Carson, Wend, Wend, Sam Darnold, Jim McGrathel, Daniel Hunter, and Julio Jones. So I don't think that.

So first of all, like half these guys aren't even going to be that good this year. Like Wentz not going to be that good. Okay. Also, what is Carson Wentz coming back from? From being bad. It's mental health. It's something. Honestly, it's from it's from being in Philadelphia.

From playing for the Eagles. From playing for the, yeah, Sam Darno is coming back from seeing ghosts. It's, it's weird. I mean, I would also say. something a little bit similar to Julio Jones. Like what, Julio Jones,

you know, obviously he only played nine games last year, but it's not like he was, you know, whatever. It's basically the comeback player of the year for some of these guys

is, is just they used to be bad and now they're good. Anyway, I think Dak Prescott, if he plays exactly like we expect Jack Prescott to play,

is going to win this award. Does anyone, Is there any other candidate here that has a chance here, George? I do think so. And I agree 1,000% with exactly what you're talking about. These words are narrative-driven. What narrative is, are people going to remember? It's catastrophic injury and coming back from one, right?

There were two that come to mind. There was Dak Prescott's. It's by far the one people remember the most. That's why he's the favorite. Joe Burrow would be the one that I would throw in there. And the reason for that is there's also the, this like, did they overcome expectations relative to their team? And the thing that worries me with the Cowboys is how vicious the media is with them,

where if they start spiraling downward and Jerry Jones doing press conferences and like it leads, Mike Greenberg spends 30 minutes on it every freaking morning and I'm sitting there contemplating, you know, switching to a new sport because of it, that would be the narrative that I think would drive people away from betting. Jack Prescott. And if Joe Burrow, with a Bengals team that has no expectations, that no one's going to care how many games they win or lose, but he could put up a really nice statistical year, especially with the addition of Jamar Chase, that would be the one.

Now, that one, I believe, has now four to one. And it used to be, I think, six, seven to one. So you're not getting a ton of value. But that'd be the only other guy that I would be thinking about. Because I agree, what the hell is Carson Wentz coming back from? Are you kidding me? he's coming back from not having the faith aligned play caller. And now he has the right,

they have the right, you know, faith makeup. Like I don't know what the hell that, that even, how that qualifies, it's ridiculous. Coming back from having a backup quarterback,

people like more. Yeah. We've seen this before, right? If I'm not mistaken, 2019, Ryan Tanningham. Ryan Tanahill.

One comeback. He was coming back from Adam Gates. Yeah. He's coming back from Adam Gage. Yeah. He's coming back. from Adam Gase. That was adversity.

Catastrophic injury. Adam Gase. Adam Gase. Yeah, I mean, it has happened before. So Sam Darnold is in the mix, is what you're saying. Right.

Yeah, Sam Darnold under the Gays Corollary. Philip Rivers also want to come back Player of the Year Award in 2013. And he was brilliant. But he started every game in the previous season. It was just bad. Okay. That's not the gays corollary.

That's the NFL media loves Philip Rivers. For good reason. He seems delightful for allary. Does the, would the NFL fall in love with Carson Wentz and his awshucks, Bargo, Fismarck. What is awes shucks about him, by the way? Is the fact that he wears a hideous camo armband,

awes shucks, that he goes hunting and post pictures of animals that he's murdered? If Carson Wentz stopped wearing the armband, I will include him for discussion in this category because he'll be coming back from poor fashion. From that, I 100% agree. Has anyone as young and inexperienced at the NFL level is, borough everyone come back player of the year because it kind of feels like it's a mid career award yes you know like you can't just play a handful of games the NFL blow out your knee and then come back from it that doesn't the gift to be chad pennington twice true breeze won it too in 2004

kind of like very similar situation where the chargers like basically like drafted his replacement he like came back and did really well he was sort of in that age bracket a look maybe a little older but that that's probably the only thing you could sort of see there but Yeah, I don't think when, like to your point, Cap, I don't think Wenz is going to be any good. So like, I don't think we have to worry about it. But it is an interesting one. What if he's bad, but he has a fashion turnaround? Because he's hands down the worst dressed human in the NFL.

Like it's a, it's a nightmare. It's a comedy show. If he turns that around but ends up being bad on the field, you know, maybe maybe we still, we, we give him a little credit there. That's more likely in my opinion than turning around. Do we say? Here's one that I'll say that had a chance. If Rogers gets traded and the NFC North starts, they start Andy Donald in all season and that division is a runaway for Minnesota

and Danelle Hunter has 15 to 20 sacks. That is possibly one because people love Zimmer, people love defense and like sacks are like the one thing where, you know, that people can point to. And he did miss the whole season last year. Wow. Okay.

Dennell Hunter is probably a good job, but he would have to put up some insane numbers. I have to be insane in order to beat a quarterback. Because I think actually like a Sam Darnold who wins seven games and like beats one good team would win over a defensive lineman who doesn't put up monster numbers. All right. Let's get to the props here.

This is really fun. We're just going to go through a handful of these player totals. And most of them are real. Most of them are fan duel. The first one I made up. Russell Wilson MVP votes 0.5. Nora. I'm going over. I'm going to just admit that my logic to this is really dumb,

but I just think it should happen and I support him and I want it to happen. So I'm choosing to go over. Also, I like Shane Waldron a lot. How's that? That tracks, George. Has your boss Chris Collinsworth gotten his vote back yet? Yeah, we still need to work on that. That would be, so that would be the way to guarantee this happens, right?

if he has a good season. Because I think Kevin tweeted out, let Chris cook. Chris and I made a video last year off of Slow Newsday. Corey McConnell, our ace producer, superimposed it with some

every vote should count protests that I think is important. So Chris Collinsworth needs his vote back. I am going, first off, I 100% support that. I'm going under. And I give a couple quick reasons.

There are a lot of really good quarterbacks. We've mentioned Tom Brady. We've mentioned there's obviously Patrick Mahomes. I think Dak Prescott is a guy that's likely to get some votes. Also, you need to win the division. He is in the toughest division. They could finish fourth. Like that wouldn't shock the world.

Currently, I think, three to one to win that division. So even if he puts up numbers requisite of getting a vote, I'm going to side with zero. Oh, Eric. Okay, I'm going to, same reason as George has, I'm going to bet the other. I'm actually going to bet the other side of bed over here. That fact that they are three to one means that I think people are sleeping on them. If he, like, the weird part of our last season was we sort of like saw the let Russ Cook thing coming and then it happened and we were all excited. And then they took it away from us.

And that was why Wilson, who I think on balance at a very good season was not in consideration. I think this year, I don't think anybody's really talking about the Seahawks. Seahawks Twitter is like unusually subdued right now, which I'm worried about, frankly. And when you get to the season, okay, they have a night game against Washington, a night game against the Niners, and then they finish against Houston. Rams will be tough, bears, I don't think it'll be that hard. And then lions and then Cardinals, I think if he builds any sort of lead that he that he sort of shows the world in those two weeks against, you know, on Sunday night and Thursday night football,

and then he he leans into the last few weeks where he's playing a bunch of cupcakes. I think he would have a chance to at least get a vote. Yeah, I agree. I also think that once the narrative becomes Russell Wilson is so good, he's never gotten an MVP vote. This is an injustice. I think someone's going to give him a vote. Even if it's just for like to write the column, here's why I voted for Russell Wilson for VP. If I had a vote, I might do it just for content.

Everything's content. Okay, next one. Julio Jones receiving yards, 975.5. George. Going over, our projections have him going over this total. And there is going to be, this is going to be a prudent year for Julio Jones. So where I'm used to seeing Julio Jones come off the field like every other third down and bang my head against the wall when I bet the Falcons, that won't happen here for the Titans. they also have no other options to throw the ball to.

Like it's Julio and A.J. Brown, they don't have anybody else. So even though I don't think they'll throw it a ton, he's going to get over a thousand yards this year. And the last thing I'll add, Darius Butler came on our podcast. I asked him, it was like, Tullio Jones still a top five guy. He thinks he's still a top five guy when healthy. And I think that he is going to make himself healthy for this season to prove everyone wrong. So over. This is a health question, basically.

Eric? Yeah, you know, Nora and George were using the same notes at the beginning of the podcast. Now, me and George are using the same projections. So I still have to go over here. I will say the last time the Titans gave two separate wide receivers, 100 targets in the same season, it was 2013 and their names were Kendall Wright and Nate Washington. So this would be like for those guys to both get enough targets to go over a thousand, AJ Brown and Julio, would be a change, you know, a change in sort of like, you know,

strategy for the Titans. But I do think I don't think he's like a 1,200-yard receiver, but I do think he gets over. Kendall Wright is a very famous story I once heard in the Ethel Circle's one of the server and aborted, that the reason that the Browns drafted Brandon Whedon is because they wanted Kendall Wright so badly. And then he came

off the board and they just completely panic. And they were just like, and then they just took Brandon Whedon. Somebody wants told me that. Anyway. If there was a franchise that wouldn't have a backup plan, like that would have been one. Also, Kendall Wright wasn't even that good.

But he had one 1,000 year out season, but it's not like it was, you know, prime Randy Moss was on the board. And now we're just flailing in the world. For the number three receiver, so they've been out of league for four years. He is 31 years old. Nora.

All right. Well, I guess George in my mind meld is, is broken. I'm going under because, prove it here or not. I think some of the reason that Julio's, you know, you can sort of see him in your mind's eye

trotting off the field, even on a pivotal third down. It's just load management. I mean, some of his health, and I think this is to his credit for a receiver who's had injury questions dating back to the second he was drafted. He does seem like he's really good at handling it, but it has to be handled, right? So I don't trust him to play a full season. And I also think that there's, you know, he plays fewer snaps than a lot of receivers of that caliber would.

And I would assume that as he gets older, there's probably more and more of it that needs to happen. Also, you know, this is an offense that's probably going to keep giving Derek Henry 20 plus touches the game. AJ Brown had 1,075 yards last season. Johnny Smith was taking up some volume two, but the number two receiver then was Corey Davis. So I just don't know that the yards are to be had in that offense. Plus the health question makes me want to lean under. this next one the fan dual line had me sketching my head a little bit she can throw it out there

tom brady passing touchdowns 34.5 he had 40 last year i think we know the answer for at least two of the folks on this panel we'll start with er yeah this is also a health question um yep our number for brady is 35.6 so i don't think it's that big of a slam dunk but i do think it i do think it goes over for him. But yeah, I don't think it's as big. I don't think you're going to have as many 40 touchdown passers as many believe with the extra game. But this one, if you're going to have one, Brady might be one of them. Here's my question, Nora.

In the 17 game era, I'm not expecting wholesale changes or anything like that. But is there a case we made? There could be a little more, I guess the phrase would be load management, where if a guy is just a little bit banged up, and it's December 1st. You know what? The season's longer. Let's just sit this dude.

Or, you know, if it's Mahomes and he's got a bum ankle again, or it's Brady, and he's just a little bit banged up. Like, I just feel like teams might be a little more open to the idea of sitting a guy when he might be 75% of the way there and would normally play in the 16 game era. I think they're just more likely to practice less, especially those veterans. Like Brady hates coming off the field. He really genuinely hates it. I don't think he's going to want to do that just because there's a 17th game.

I think it's a little bit more getting used to, oh, hey, Bruce Ariens, you're totally cool if I, you know, take this, take this Thursday off. Go to Cabo with George this week. Just get a nine hour long massage and don't get hit in practice. Those. I agree. Over under Nor.

Over. Way over. George? Yeah, over and under the nine-hour long massage in terms of time. Over in terms of passing touchdowns, I will say this. The difference between 16 and 17, 17 games is still a very small number of games. So the idea to me that Tom Brady is the guy that would come off the field. He's the last guy.

I think you could make a case for maybe like a really banged up lineman or a guy, you know, in a different position where they're going to feel the brunt of things. But, man, especially because think about this, you're going to have some chances to set some records. You know these guys are thinking about that. And like, I think it even motivates them more, like, you know, to make sure that they are out there because of the opportunity. This one isn't over for me as well.

You know what I think it is? I think that combined with it's not just the Eagles situation at the end of last season. it's a collective, you know, reshaping how teams think. I think one thing that is a product of the 17th game, the week 18, I guess, tank is absolutely here to stay. With an extra game, if there's no, if the only, if the only stakes are just draft position, like, come on, play Nate Sudfeld.

Yeah, I think the inefficiency in the, in the prop market is on receivers and running backs. I think quarterbacks will play almost every game, but I do think you're just going to see, I think more people are going to be like Julia, where they're like, hey, we want to, I want to increase my yards per route run at pff.com, and the best way to do that is to run fewer routes.

Well, here's the thing that I would say about that is it's just another, it's more snaps during which players that play positions where they are more apt to get injured can get injured. And I think that is something to think about as well. It's like that wear and tear does not increase for quarterbacks in the same way that it will for other positions where they are just dealing with physical contact more. So I agree 100% there. All right.

This next one, I'm a little bit worried about throwing this out into the universe, but we're just going to do it. Tassum Hill total touchdowns. 13 is the line total. So the way they break this down is 7.5 of them are passing rushing slash receiving is 4.5. So we'll group them together. Excuse me, the answer is it's 12, and by the way, not 13. It's my middle school math there. Over under George Shihari, Tason Motowns.

I mean, Jesus. Under. Under. What? This is a question about how much you plays, basically. No, it's a question about any individual's sanity on betting on this to begin with. I don't think that. So he had eight rushing touchdowns last year.

He had one receiving touchdown last year. And then on passing, he had four touchdowns last year. So we actually had over this. They're expecting regression. I guess the question is how much he plays if this is James Winston's team. This is 100% of playing time question. I believe in Sean Payton. I really like Sean Payton.

I will start to question that belief if we see Taysom Hill starting games. I mean, there's just no question that James Winston is the better thrower of the football, and it's by Miles, and you're going to win in the NFL based on whether you can throw the football. So I, the only I would potentially, I would consider rushing because I think they need more weapons, the rushing receiving one. I think he could play tight at some tight end. That to me could make some sense. the passing touchdowns one would not make any sense to me.

I think James Winston gets a chance to play. I think James Winston has been underrated in terms of his ability to throw the football down field. So I'm definitely going under overall. I would go under passing. And I'd probably lay off the rushing receiving one just because it's Sean Freaking Peyton and he'll put him at tight end. Again, to me, this is like a sanity test on just if you're willing to engage with this

or not. My answer is to run for the hills, but if I, if I'm forced to choose, I'm going under. Eric. I am crazy enough to engage in this. Yes. I'm going to go over on the rest of your team. And who's why? I will say here.

Let's let's read off the saints. Nick Venet, Adam Troutman, something called Garrett Griffin, and Ethan Wolfe for their tight ends. He has a mother. Gary Griffin. Their second wide receiver is currently Trequan Smith. And while I like Deonté Harris and Marquez Calloway a little bit, like they just simply don't have weapons on this team. Like, and I'll give James,

James is, I think, a pretty good quarterback. He's going to pump the ball down field. And I think Michael Thomas is good enough to get them in the red zone. I think you're going to get over four and a half pretty easily with, with Taysam Hill as far as like rushing and receiving our concern because they don't have anybody else. And then, you know, as far as the total one, yes. seven and a half touchdowns feels heavy to me, even if he was like playing,

maybe played eight games, I don't think you'd get that far. But I think for the rushing and receiving one, like the Saints don't have any weapons. And the other one that's sneaky, they only have $5 million in salary cap space. The only player they can kind of get rid of on offense, if I'm seeing this properly and save themselves,

a decent amount of money, is either Trey Kwan Smith or Latavius Murray. So there can even be like a trade or release, just to give themselves some relief. And those players would only benefit this bet if they were to be let go by the Saints. So I do think Hill is extremely involved in the offense, even if he doesn't win the starting job.

Justin Field starts 11.5, Nora. I'm going over. I'm just, I don't trust this Andy Dalton narrative. Actually. Have you ever trusted an Andy Dalton narrative? No, not as far as. I can throw one, which is probably not very far, but Nagy told, actually your guys' boss, Chris Collinsworth recently, that Andy Dalton was the starter, but then also said, again, I can't predict

anything. You know how it goes. There's so many things that can happen between today and that week one, but Andy is our starter and Justin's our number two. And we're going to stick to this plan. There's like six inherent contradictions in that statement. Except that Nick Foles is never going to see the light of day. That's the one we know is. is fine. So what is your, if you were to guess what the total was, nor where would you go with that? Like, honestly like 13.

Where was it? I think there's a pivot point for them around week four or something where I felt like he could easily be slotted in. Well, wait, I already did this. I already did this a couple of weeks ago. We did this on the show. And it seems to me that you want to get him before. The pivot point to me, so they start off with the Rams.

then they have the Bengals and the Browns. To me, on October 3rd, they play the Lions and then they play the Raiders. And the reason you want to get him in in these two games, they play the Packers on October 17th. You don't want to have him start his first game against the Packers because everybody's going to be watching, especially if it's Jordan Love, by the way, because that even heightens it because then you're looking at the next quarterbacks for both teams. And then they have the Bucks, the 49ers, and the Steelers and the Ravens. Okay. It's like 14 games, but I also think, I still kind of think he could win the starting job.

Like, I just don't get that. Those, all of those sentences contradict each other. George made a video about this recently, so we're going to go to him now. Yeah. Yeah. I'm trying to think about it from, I know, coaches say things to the media not to be right or wrong, but to create the right narrative for their team. Right.

the only thing that can happen if he says, yeah, Justin Fields, you know, could be the week one starter, like, I think it might be happening, you know, whatever he throws out some caveats, whatever. Only bad things happen from there. Media scrutiny increases. If he has good practices, people are high. If he has a bad practice, the world is ending. Like, that does not set your quarterback up for success. You throw Andy Dalton out there. Justin Fields has nothing to lose now, right? He can go out and practice in peace. You can evaluate him in peace. And you put Andy Dalton in the position, which is exactly what you're paying him just a few million dollars for, which is to be the sacrificial lamb on opening night in Los Angeles

against Aaron Donald. Okay. It's on Sunday night. Do I need to remind you what Andy Dalton is going to look like on Sunday night against the Rams defense? It's going to be awful. Justin Fields is going to start week two against Cincinnati Bengals. Okay?

Bengals, it's at home. It's going to be in Chicago. The Bengals are not very good. This is the perfect time to start him. Andy Dalton is not a very good quarterback. He is a very good backup. And that's exactly what he needs to be for the Bears. I'm going over.

Justin Fields plays 16 games. Wow. Eric? Yeah. The only reason you'd like under here is you're concerned about the Chicago offense line, which was prohibitively bad last year. I don't think it's the same as the Kansas City situation. The Chiefs were 12 and 4 coming off the two seed when they moved on from,

or they started moving on from Alex Smith. this is a 500 team. The Bears, the guy, he's, he, he wants that reason. So like that, this is, this is a good number. I think 12, 13 is probably the number. Nagy wants to give us just enough of a flavor of fields to keep his job and sort of keep, you know, the fan base in that tight, headed over, but he doesn't, to George's point, want to anoint him the starter now and then have to back off should he play poorly in preseason.

Good point. All right. Mahomes interceptions. 8.5. Nora? I'd go over. He threw six last season, but I believe through the fine folks at PFF.

He had 23 turnover worthy plays. Guys, am I correct in that? We're going to pull a Maccary. We're going to put it on a ticker, regression from Mahomes. Crashing down to Earth, says Nora Princeati.

Can George say some mean things about the Steelers again? I think he, I think that could be arranged. That can be arranged. Just to spend this away. But if he can, look, it's just still not a lot of interceptions, right? So I'm going over. Eric?

Yeah, I think Mahomes is a better season this year than the previous two, but I think he throws more than eight and a half interceptions. There is evidence that turnover worthy plays when thrown harder have, have a lesser chance of getting caught. So I do think guys of superior arm strength, there might be an issue with that variable, but still, nine's not that many. Yeah, so for Josh Allen, you're worried about it. The nice thing about Patrick Mahomes,

and I think this is why you can go over this number and it not be like you hate Mahomes and the Chiefs. Mahomes and Eric keyed me into this last year, he is so smart situationally. Like his awareness in Madden is, you know, 100, whereas like for some players it's zero, Drew Locke, maybe. Bless his heart.

Yeah, bless his heart. Mahomes will take chances when he needs to take chances. he is not scared of throwing interceptions if he needs to try and make a play to win a game. That's the beauty of Patrick Mahomes. If you listen to him talk, his goal is to win football games. That's it. He's thrown out this 20 and 0 number, which I think is an interesting thing to throw out before the season is freaking started.

But that said, I think that there is going to be opportunities where he needs to make some plays or where it's inconsequential for him to throw an interception, and he will take chances. And that will result in over eight and a half intercept. despite the fact that, look, he could throw freaking 60 touchdowns and no one would be surprised. There's some research that Kevin Cole did in our group just recently, which I thought was really interesting, where you're seeing more quarterbacks throw interceptions on low expected points plays. And the reason why is that punters are better and field position is not as important, especially when you play good teams.

So the benefit of dumping the ball off to Darrell Williams for an eight-yard gain on third and 12 is not necessarily as high as it used to be when the average net pump was 38 yards and now it's in the 40s. And additionally, when you're playing Tom Brady, Tom Brady is just as scary, almost as scary, starting from the 16 as he is starting from his own 25.

So I think whether it's a slow evolution, but teams are more willing to throw more dangerous passes on third down and long, which could result in more interceptions, but result in better football overall. And I think that that will, be reflected a little bit in the interception numbers. Eli Manning signed a deal to rejoin the Giants in business operations today.

And they're retiring his number. Wow. He's back. He's back in the organization. That's why Daniel Jones isn't going to fumble anymore. Eli Manning's mentorship. I was going to say, we need to go over, we go over the Daniel Jones conversation. It's really changed.

Just the whole thing. Just to have an Eli around, you know, is just going to be pretty important, I think. I think he can just add. Kind of the Spider-Man meme. Sorry, I was going to say he's going to be their social media coordinator. he's at least worth five wins just him being around just the vibes guy

vibes captain uh last one i don't want to i asked for this i asked bandw for this um but i wish i could wash my hands of it and just throw it away just just without without attaching my name to it but i want this discussion tim tibo zero point five touchdowns eric eager this is basic and so you put the

this is where we might have to Talk about the number. So you said over is five to one under is minus 600. That's correct, according to the Fandul. Yeah, so this is basically a bet on whether or not he'll make the team. Because as a fellow person who played tight end but wasn't very good, you'll still get a lot of chances to catch touchdowns. And if you read out their depth chart, it's not particularly good either.

I think if he makes the team, they're going to get one of those stupid, like, play actions near the goal line and throw them the ball. And it's going to be. So really the question. is, does he have more than a 16% chance of making the team? I'll bet yes. This is easy. Yes.

Take the, take me over. This is confirmation bias. I am Urban Meyer. I waited the waters very, you know, I was very cautious about how I got him onto the team, but now I've stuck him in, okay? This sucker is going to make the team, right? He is going to make the team, especially because you notice the chatters wound down a little bit. People on the team have come out and said he's worked really hard.

They haven't even named starting quarterback yet. So, you know, that's still up in the It's going to be Tebow. Yeah, right. Trevor Lawrence has come out and said like, oh, it's great to have him here. Those things all point towards he is going to be on the team. This team has no weapons. He's catching a touchdown, rushing whatever. It's going to happen. Book it. Nora. I'm going no. I'm going, I'm going, I'm going under. I don't, I don't, yeah. Yeah. haters is going to hate. I don't think that he has more than a 16% shot to make the team. I totally agree that if he makes the team, he'll probably, you know,

stumble into a touchdown or two. But he's, he wasn't necessarily a shoe in to be able to do this at this position when he was at his athletic peak. And I think the idea that he's somehow going to be able to do it now is just, it doesn't, it does not compute with me. I think it is a below 16% chance that he makes the roster. and if he doesn't make the roster,

I think he's going to have a hard time scoring a touchdown. I agree with the last part. That's great one. Sharing notes again. Liceps in the jersey? Like, he's in great shape, Nora. I don't know. He's in great dude at the gym shape.

Yeah. Because that's what he's been doing. I don't, I don't, I don't agree. I do agree that, like, just because he's, like, beef caked up doesn't mean, like, he's actually going to be able to do anything. Oh, yeah. Of course not.

like a weird position though. Like he's probably only going to run down on kickoffs and puns. And then at the goal line, like do something stupid. And like, I do think there's an aspect of Meyer where like the sideshows are sort of are hopefully distracting from the fact that they're not going to be that good. And this is like keeping that alive. Urban Meyer did not go through that media circus to get Tim Tebow on the team for like four weeks. I don't know. I think a counter example is. I don't think that's true. On the roster.

The Iowa strength coach guy was fired. That was a different category. It wasn't designed for him to be there to be there for a couple weeks. He was supposed to be there for years. I agree with that. I don't know. My conspiracy theory on this is that something I've shared before is that one good way to get Trevor Lawrence to not be hounded by reporters and for every national reporter not to do the Trevor Lawrence story is for Tim Tebow to be there.

Like that's a really good way. Even though Jacksonville, obviously, it's not a media market like New York or Philly or Boston or anything. But there is, you know, here comes, here comes sports center or whatever. I think guessing what's going to happen with Tebow in training camp is it's already so bizarre. Urban Meyer being there is already so bizarre. Like, I don't know. It's a fool's errand to guess. I guess he makes the same.

Wait, that's a change for you. No, I know. I'm, I, I thought he was, I thought, it was a distraction and I thought that this was just going to be ho-hom and that they weren't going to try to force it. I now think they're having seen the roster and hearing smart people like George and Eric talk, I'm coming around and I agree you wouldn't want to take the media circus heat. So I think now that they might try to force it. You're talking about a franchise. You had the Iowa Strength Coach thing. You also had their vice president of like strategy and analytics last

three months. Like there is an aspect of let's let's not be as big of a site. Like let's let's keep this thing sort of like looking somewhat on the level. And I think just like bringing Tebow in and having him be a high profile cut is like way less towards that goal than having him come in and blend in. And then oh wait, Tim Tebow is on the team when he catches like this dumb little one yard play action fake in the back corner of the end zone like like he's a third tackle. Like I think that's but at the odds, even money, I'm betting no. Five to one, I'll bet Tebow. And to Kevin's point, like, if your goal is actually to take heat off Lawrence,

the heat is going to come for Lawrence. He's starting week one, okay? But if he throws three interceptions, you know, or he's got, or he's said the other side of things, you don't want him to get too high and he throws four touchdowns, the best way to mitigate that microscope is to have Tim Tebow catch one of the touchdowns because then that is leading sports. Center is supposed to Trevor Lawrence through four interceptions. No, it's like Tim Tebow,

you know, Zaddy of the year has caught a touchdown. We're going to spend 10 minutes on this. Did you call Tim Tebow Zaddy of the year? It's going to be like the Nick, the MVP. A great Tim Teamm Tito is winning MVP this year. There's zero doubt about it. MVP, Tim Tebow, where are the odds on that? Jaguars are going to get to the Nickelodeon playoff game? Get Fandle on that. MVP odds are what we need.

Banduel has been extremely helpful with this. I think that they would dissolve all ties with the ringer if I asked them for MVP odds. What if T-Bos involved? But it's just like this one, though. You're just handicapping what the likelihood is that the Jaguars get in that game. Because if he gets in,

George is building bots to vote him in. I don't need to. I won't need to. For the entire universe will come together. We can't align on anything. We'll come together, just like we did with Mitch Trubisky, to bring the MVP home to the church with Tim Tebow and Urban Meyer. Wow. MVP talk.

That's all we wanted. All right. Thanks for joining us next up on this feed. Peter Schrager and Sean McVeigh with Flying Coach to all of his special guests. Thank you for producing to Isaiah Blayhew, additional production by Arjuna Ramkopol. It's been the Ringer NFL show on the Ringer Podcast Network.