The Ringer NFL Show - Predicting the AFC Winners for the 2023 Season | Extra Point Taken

Episode Date: September 1, 2023

Sheil and Ben gave you the NFC division winners, and now it’s time for the AFC winners. Will Joe Burrow and the Bengals take the AFC North crown, or will the revamped Ravens take the top spot? There’s a lot of hype surrounding the Jets with the addition of Aaron Rodgers, but will they even make the playoffs? Who will be representing the AFC in the Super Bowl? The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please check out theringer.com/RG to find out more or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Sheil Kapadia and Ben Solak Producer: Cliff Augustin Additional Production Supervision: Conor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgopal Musical Elements: Devon Renaldo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, everyone. This is Craig Horlebeck from the Ringer Fantasy Football Show. Join me, Danny Hifetz, and Danny Kelly, every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday to help you win your draft, win your league, and most importantly, avoid that last place punishment. Follow the Ringer Fantasy Football show on Spotify. Welcome to Extra Point Taking. Shield Kapati here, joined by Ben Solak. It's AFC prediction day earlier this week. We did the NFC. Solek has the Cowboys coming out of the NFC. I have the Eagles. There's no need to start with that. There's no need to. You don't have to open like that. I have the Eagles. I guess I shouldn't have spoiled it if you haven't listened already, but of course you can go back and listen to that episode. We picked our division winners, our wildcard teams, our playoff bracket in the NFC.

We were a little more similar than I anticipated, but now we're going to the AFC, and I feel like we've had battles over these AFC teams all offseason long. Ben, I think we're going to be a little different for the AFC, but who knows? Maybe you'll surprise me. Yeah, NFC has got a couple of. couple of good teams and then a couple of mid teams and you kind of just get it to seven and you go a fc's got 16 total teams in it like 98 of them are good every team is good it's a big problem um no one if anybody at the end of the season looks smart in their afc playoff predictions all be stunned

i mean i guess like a lot of big numbers somebody's going to be but man it feels tough there you go so uh yeah that's the exercise we'll just go division by division we pick our division champs if we're in a division where we have a wild card team we let the other person know uh and And then we go from there. And then at the end, we'll do a little playoff bracket. Who do we have coming out of the AFC? And Ben, I guess we have to choose. Who do we have winning the Super Bowl? You're prepared for that today, right? You've been prepared for that since like April, probably. If you've been paying attention to your email, then you've known that you have had to send into editor Megan Schuster your Super Bowl pick as of yesterday. Sheel. I was due by Wednesday. Okay.

That's true, but that's to her. That's not to me. Okay. So you made your pick. I don't know what it is. You don't know what mine is, and we'll go from there. All right, let's get it started. AFC East. Oh my goodness, what a tough division to start it off. Benjamin, where did you land on your division winner in the AFC East? Who do you got? I think the bills are going to win the division.

I think this because, and I have a piece about the bills coming out this week, I think it's important to make this statement and then filter all other perspectives about the AFC East and about the Buffalo bills through this statement. Josh Allen is the only quarterback who even comes remotely close to the Patrick Mahomes tier and Patrick Mahomes characterization of if you've got this guy, then you're probably winning enough games to win the division, right? Like, I think,

you remember this time last year, it was kind of like, what if Burroughs better than Mahomes? And what if Josh Allen's better than Mahomes, right? We were coming off of that, like, weren't those real things,

though? No, they weren't. They weren't. I'm talking about it's like the public kind of conversation. the public perception was like, was yearning to kind of put somebody on Mahomes's tier, right, to have somebody who could legitimately come for the crown. And then I think this past season was a good reminder.

Okay, well, Mahomes is up there by himself. Nobody really comes close. However, Alan is, in my estimation, the only other quarterback in the league who has that like tectonic world ending Terminator, you know, demigod ability to just power your team through injury, through bad circumstance, through bad luck, through weird, whatever. through challenging division opponents to just enough wins that you're just,

you're just, the floor of how good you are when you have a quarterback like Alan with his talent is so high that I think the bills are winning the division. Am I concerned by an aging defense coming off of a lot of injuries? Heck yeah, brother.

I think the offensive line is going to be fine this year. I like the changes they've made. I like the step forward they took last year. Do I still think it's like a great offensive line? No. Am I where? about the wide receiver two targets and the hope of finding a secondary target behind

Stefan Diggs that haven't really done the last couple years. Yep. Am I worried about Stefan Diggs being very upset about things? Yeah, I'm worried about all these things. Every single thing I'm worried about. Okay? There's a lot of reasons to look at the bills. And again, this is a lot of what my piece is about. And it just kind of like scratch your head a little bit. Get a little air under the collar. Like, all right, this is sweatier than it was. Right. That's what happened when you when you run it back and you run it back and you run it back, eventually, the cracks in the facades are to get bigger and bigger and bigger and you start to get some structural issues. But with all of that said, they got 17.

And I think 17 makes them remarkably better than the, I think 17 Josh Allen is a remarkably better quarterback situation than everybody else in this division. Even like the high end of Tua and the high end of Aaron Rogers, even if you get those, I think that Allen gives you a more impactful high end. I like the bills to win the division. I've got the bills also. All right. So we're one for one here. Now, do you have a record for the Bills? Did you do that exercise or not for the AFC? I did. Now, I will clarify by saying, I forgot to take a screenshot. And so I did it again, but there's a chance that like my NFC numbers are different. And so like my AFC. So somebody goes back and does the math and it's like, Ben, it's too many wins. That's why. Also, if you're doing the math. Somebody please do that, by the way. One of you expats. I would really enjoy that.

I have the bills as a 13 win team this season, winning the division. Ooh, okay, all right. I've got the bills winning it. I've got them at 11 and 6. You nailed it? I mean, they're 47 and 18 in the last three years with Josh Allen. Like, they win over 70% of their games. The beauty of Josh Allen, and I don't totally agree with your assessment,

but I'll wait to name the other quarterback who I think belongs in there until we... Everybody who listens knows who you think it is. Everyone knows who it is. It is who you think it is. But he just, I mean, the beauty. The beauty of him is he plays every play like it's the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl and the game's on the line. And that leads to plays where you're sitting on your couch on Sunday with Red Zone ongoing, Josh Allen, what are you doing with that Red Zone interceptioner? Why did you

try to truck that, you know, 270 pound whatever in the open? Like, why are you doing that? It's week three, man. You're up by 17 points. Take it easy. Chill a little bit. But you know what? That's also the beauty of Josh Allen because that competitive. that go all out on every play also makes him make those plays where you go, holy cow, no one else in the league can do that except Mahomes. Like from a physical perspective, there's nobody else capable of making that play. He just made other than Patrick Mahomes. And that's why he's got that ceiling.

And that's why we still remember that Bill's Chiefs game in the playoffs from a couple years ago, one of the best games I've ever watched, one of the best games of our lifetime. So yeah, I just feel like he can bring everyone up with him. Now, it's interesting when you zoom out. and look at the bills because I thought they did like one of the best rebuilding jobs in recent NFL memory when they got Josh Allen and then they traded for Stefan Diggs and then they shorted up the offensive line and I was like, that's how you do it right there. That's the model. The sustaining part is harder to your point. Like I would have very much loved an offseason here where I go,

they made bigger upgrades to the offensive line. They have a number two or a number three who I feel great about and they're going to be even harder to defend this year. That didn't happen. They made moves around the margins. You know, last offseason, they made their big splash with Von Miller this offseason. It was more moves around the margins. But having said that, I just feel like as long as Alan is healthy, and maybe even if he's not healthy, by the way, they're still going to be really good. A couple things like from last year.

They were 13 and 3 last year. They didn't lose a game by more than a field goal in the regular season. It was until that playoff game against the Bengals, like just a consistently competitive team. And then this is something that doesn't get brought up. and I understand it's weird to talk about, but like the Damar Hamlin situation, like they thought their teammate died on the field with what, two weeks to go in the season. Like I'm not a, you know, psychiatrist. I couldn't tell you how that affected every guy. I do feel pretty strongly that

it probably affects you when you see your friend, somebody you've spent, you know, months, years with on the field in that situation. And they were pretty candid and honest and vulnerable about talking about it afterwards. But when that happens, you know, we just expect them to then go back on the field and be the team they've been and focus on winning. And it's not like, no, like it is a human thing for that to affect you. So I don't put too much stock into the way the season ended, into the way their playoffs ended. I just think as long as they have Allen, they're going to be really competitive. I knock them down a couple of wins from last year because I think their schedule is the fourth toughest schedule in the league. I have some concerns about the age, like you mentioned, on defense.

Sean McDermott taking over the defensive play calling. Does that affect his in game management? There are all these things that I think factor in where I say, okay, they might take a little step back, but I still think they're going to be really good. I went for the piece and I found what Allen's numbers would have been if we just like just straight before the injury, right? So if Alan stayed totally healthy and never got hurt last season, he had the UCL injury in week nine against the Jets, he was on pace for five over. Five over. Overfunk, really close to his monitor. 5,000 passing yards, over 6,000 total yards, and over 50 total touchdowns. The young man was cooking in the early stretch, right? And then obviously like, okay, defense is going to catch up,

whatever. But like, you can only catch it so far up when the offense is just predicated on the guy being enormous and throwing the ball really far. So yeah, like, I, I think if you, if you, you know, find the time stream in which Allen doesn't have the UCL injury, it's a Tommy John injury in week nine against the Jets. I think Allen's probably winning league MVP last year, question mark, maybe. And then we're having a separate conversation where it's like, okay, even if they do have the horrible end of the season that they did with Hamlin's injury and then with the subsequent way it affected their postseason, we're still coming off this and saying like,

wow, Josh Allen, Ken Dorsey, this offense, like they have a chance to run it again. And so I do think that we're, we are forgetting just how dangerous this bill's offense can be just how easily it can just win games for them, because they can put 30 on anybody in a heartbeat. Yeah, 4,000 yards passing and 700 yards rushing. I've said this step before. That's happened three times in NFL history. Cam Newton did it in 2015. Gosh, Allen has done it in back-to-back seasons, including one where he had a UCL injury. He put up those numbers. I do think we take the numbers and what he's asked to do for granted a little bit. And I think some of what the bills did this offseason was, hey, let's try to make it a little bit easier on him. We'll see if they succeed there or not. All right, now the big question, then, do you have have one more wild card from this division? Do you have two wild cards from this division? Do you have zero wild cards from this division? Who else is making the playoffs in the AFC East? The mermaid dolphins. The dolphins are one of my teams this year that I think is going to perform extremely well. I have two reasons for that. And it's faith in the guy coach in the offense

and it's faith in the guy coach in the defense. I think if you start defensively, Josh Boyer last season was a Brian Flores holdover and really just like ran the same stuff without like this the same like creativity, the same like real intimate knowledge of like the system and understanding of how it works. It was kind of just like if you or I went out there and tried to call the Shanhan offense like sure we'd like know what it's supposed to look like. We don't really get it. And so that you just kind of end up with a really toothless defense in Miami. But they went and they brought in talent and they've had a, they've done a good job developing talent there. Right. You have John Hall.

You have Brandon Jones. You have Jerome Baker. You have Christian Wilkins. You have Rayquan Davis. You have Jalen Phillips, right? All guys who were selected by the team and have been brought up by the team over the last five years. Zach Seeler, who got just a big extension for them, quality player. They go in the trade for Bradley Chub.

Xavier and Howard, right, who's been there for a long time now as Eddie steady outside corner. Kater Koeh develops lovely last year. You're pretty much looking at this defensive death turn saying, we have enough talent here. That we should be able to be an impactful defense. We should be able to win games this season on the back of our defense. Who can get that done for us? The Godfather, the man himself.

Vic Fangio. Very old. As a reminder, all good defensive coordinators, old or jacked. Vic, super old. Vic, I was a Dolphins camp. One of your best takes and theories, by the way. I have no notes on that one. I was at, I was at Dolphins Camp.

Vick's rocking the big straw hat. That's how you know. Yeah. And so that's a pro right there. That straw hat lives in a box for nine months of the year. And then it comes out for mini camp and training camp time. Rock the big straw hat. And so with Fangio, Pangeo fits very nicely into how this defense should work, right?

Brat of the Chubb, obviously, like with experience in the defense, but still with defensive linemen who can line up in different spots and be useful, Christian Wilkins and Zach Sealer, with a safety duo that I really, really think, and Javan Hall and Brandon Jones can have a huge, huge, huge impact. There's going to have a huge jump in kind of the national eye under Fangio. You love to see that. You bring in David Long because you need that Mike Linebacker who can cover. perfect. You're bringing Jalen Ramsey because he's Jalen freaking Ramsey, right? You can play in the slot. He can play a safety. You can play that's a corner for you. He gets hurt, but I think there's still enough talent here that I expect this defense. Take such a big step forward that they're able to account for a lot of the moments last year where like the offense just like needed a couple of stops.

Like, hey, we had a good game, but not a perfect game. Can you help us out? And the defense just had no teeth. Then you look at the offense and you say, all right. So this worked really well last You're like this was sick. This was, I went back and I was like reading some expectations and reorienting myself on what my perspective was on the Dolphins offense entering last season. And this really was like exceeded all expectations. There was nobody who was like, you know, Tua was going to become the best deep pass in the league.

Like that was not in any ways even paradigm, range of outcomes for this group. You largely run it back. You run it back in terms of the past catchers, make some changes underneath. Bring in Braxton Barrio, see if he's going to be more valuable for you. you pump up running back a little bit with Devon Devon A Shane. I think they wanted to pump up running back a little bit more. I think they did their best to pump up running back a little bit more. They were unsuccessful.

But so you got when you had you had a couple more skill position guys, speed guy and A Shane, quick, this guy and barrios, more guys who can separate and create. That way you don't have to be as reliant on Tyreek and Waddle. But you know this offense works. You know McDaniel, on Tyreek at Waddle, like the play action, the motion, the past protection. It's all beautiful. It doesn't make sense. you want to get like 12, 13 games out of Tua,

and you want him to ideally be healthy in January. Like that's what you're looking at in terms of like a postseason run for this team is you have to have Tua healthy enough when we get to the winter months. With that said, I think that that Tua is going to be healthy enough for enough games. This offense is good enough. They're going to make the playoffs. We might,

they might come into the playoffs like they did last year where it's, they got Skylar Thompson. They got Mike White and you're like, okay, they're bringing a backup in here. Like, I don't know if they're the same team they were in the first couple months because Tua's out now, two is not playing, but I think Tua's going to play enough. They're going to win enough games.

They should make the postseason. I have the Dolphins as an 11-win team. 11-win team. Oh, baby. Wow. Interesting. Okay, so first of all, I've been workshopping a shield cranky old man take.

Are you ready for me to unveil it here? Hey, me. Like, Vic Fangio, like, there are other ways to play defense. I'm kind of tired of all. Vic Fangio, like, Vic Fangio, great defensive coach. I know McVeigh and LaFlewa, whoever, the three offensive code,

they all said they hate it. Listen, I grew up in a, forget this line up in a too high shell in disguise. I'll plant the quarterback in the ground. Let's get some old school defensive coaches back in here, who are just hit the quarterback at all costs. And you know what?

You give up an explosive play here or there. That's okay. All right, listen, it's half fake, as some would say. I agree. I agree. I'm just kind of tired hearing about every defense in the league. Oh, they're bringing Elfangio influence. Oh, they got this coach. from the fanjo.

Like, that doesn't fix all your, all your problems, but he would not agree more. If you, if, Stephen and I did an offseason pod about why there's no

defensive coaching trees. And it's this exact point, which is so much harder to just be like, I was the outside linebackers coach for Vic Fangio for two years. I know how to run the defense. Like it doesn't work that way on the defensive side of the ball

the way on the offensive side of the ball. It's like, I was a quarterback's coach for McVeigh for a year. I basically got this stuff locked. Like, there's a total difference there. So I agree. Like,

when you get an offshoot of the, tree, you're actually taking a lot bigger of a risk and you can't just like, oh, implement some Fangio stuff. It doesn't work that way. The dolphins have the OG thing. They have the original package, baby. They've got the good stuff. They have the root. All right? They have the C. This is it. This is Vic, I believe. Yeah, I just wanted to get that off my chest. I think Fangio is a great defensive coach. I think their defense is going to be improved and pretty good this year.

I get it with the dolphins. Like, I'm not going to come. I don't have the dolphins. I have the dolphins. A good team. Not a great team. Nine and eight just missing out on the playoffs. because it's the AFC. And so you have this pile of teams and you say which ones do I trust the most. And to me, there's a bit of a fragility with the dolphins. It's the quarterback coming off at least two concussions a year ago.

Can he stay healthy? That's one, like you said, even if he's healthy for 13 games, they could still make the playoffs. They literally did that last year, so I get that. But it's not just to it. To me, it's Tehran Armstead. You know, if he goes down, do I trust that offensive line? I know Mike McDaniel coached around the offensive line weaknesses a year ago.

Can you do that again if Armstead, somebody who's had injuries here of the last three seasons and is an older player if he goes down? And then it's the wide receivers. Like the wide receivers are awesome, but like so much of their offense is predicated on those wide receivers being healthy and amazing. I mean, they accounted for 64% of the dolphins receiving yards last season. Each guy played every single game. Waddle and Tyree killed.

Neither guy missed a start. Now, I'm not here predicting. You know, you could say injuries with every team. I get that. But I add all those things up, and they're sort of like a Jenga Tower team to me where like one little piece, one of those pieces goes awry, and I feel like the thing might sort of fall down here for them. So again, I think they're a good team.

I don't think that they're going to be a great team because I think they just need so many things to go right for them to be a great team. And so I've got them at nine and eight. I do have another team, Ben, in the A. the East, who I think is going, this one's for Mama Soylak. We got the New York Jets, 10 and seven wild card team. I feel like every football analyst has to, you have to decide who are you rolling with the Dolphins or the Jets as a playoff team this year. We're on opposite sides here. I've got the Jets. Here's the reasoning. Defense, we both agree, is going to be fantastic.

I would be very surprised if we saw that defense really regress. I mean, they've got a great defensive line. They've got a stud player. at defensive tackle and Quinn and Williams. They've got a stud at cornerback in Sauce Gardner. I like the complimentary pieces, guys like DJ Reed and John Franklin Myers and whoever else who want to throw in that mixed-the-linebackers on that team as well. So I really like the defense. I think it's the top five defense once again.

And then I look at it offensively. And I say a year ago, this team was seven and ten with the worst quarterback in the NFL and the second most injured offensive line in the entire NFL. I'm not coming on here saying Aaron Rogers is going to win MVP. No, no, no. I think Rogers needs to play at a competent level. And I think there's reason to believe he can play at a competent, solid, slightly above average level for this Jets offense.

In 13 seasons, then with the Packers, Rogers was a starter, a full-time starter where he didn't get injured. They never finished worse than 11th in offensive DVOA. The last time the Jets finished 11th in offensive DVOA, 2004. These are different levels we're talking about what Rogers had to do with the Packers and what Rogers is going to have to do with the Jets. Now, listen, I'm concerned about the offensive tackle situation.

No doubt at the same time, if three weeks ago you told me it was going to play out like this, where Bechtin is showing a little bit something in the preseason, he's going to be their starting right tackle, he's healthy, Dwayne Brown comes back. I know he's old. He's not going to be great. I'm concerned about it. I'm telling you I'm concerned about it. But I think their interior O line is pretty good.

and I think Garrett Wilson's going to be a superstar this year. I think he's going to lead the NFL in receiving yards. I think Rogers is just going to spam. Every time he has a one-on-one to Garrett Wilson, he's throwing him to football. I think they're going to be around maybe in that 12 to 15 range offensively. I think they're going to be a top five defense, and I think they're going to go 10 and 7 and make the playoff. Garrett Wilson is 20 to 1 to lead the league in receiving yards, their shield.

He's eighth on the list. Okay. Be bold. You tell me, this is your take. Yeah, I'm bold. I'm feeling it. DeBonte Adams, and Rogers MVP seasons in 2020 and 2021,

Devante Adams led the NFL in targets per game. Like Rogers, when he has a guy like that, who knows better than Aaron Rogers when you have a great receiver? Use him, use him and use him some more. And Garrett Wilson had over, he had 1100 yards with Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, and Mike White last year. mean, come on. I'm agreeing with you. I'm saying, I'm saying you got to put your money where your mouth is.

No, no, I put my, I put my, I put my microphone where my mouth is. No, that doesn't. I was just saying my microphone where my mouth is. You're talking into it. Listen, yeah, listen, we have college funds over here to stay for. We can't be betting on Garrett Wilson leading the NFL and receiving yards. Think about how much money you put in the college fund after you win. I knew you're going to say that. I knew you were going to say that. I would like, why am I wrong about the jets? listening. I also were saving money for college ones. Anyway, I love, I love, I love, I just love come at me with, whoa, Torvon Armstead for the Dolphins. And then she'd been like, the guy begged in Dwayne Brown, I'm worried about it, but it'll be fine. Just six different,

I'm fine, I'm worried about it. I know it's there. It's fine, though. I'm worried about it, but it'll be okay. I know, I know it's bad, but it's okay. I think this Jets' offensive line is a really scary proposition for a quarterback like Rogers, who just doesn't have the mobility that he used to. And I think you saw last year in Green Bay when he would get pressured, he would become a pretty careless guy, a pretty impatient guy, and we just kind of chuck it up there and ask somebody to make a play, which might work better in New York with a Garrett-Wilson, relative to Green Bay, where he didn't necessarily have a wide receiver, a pass catcher of that caliber. But I'll believe that when I see it. I don't, I agree that Rogers doesn't need to be

MVP Rogers needs to be competent Rogers. The problem is I don't think Rogers is good at being competent Rogers. I think Rogers is good at being either MVP Rogers or I'm causing problems by just doing what I want to do Rogers. He hasn't necessarily threaded the needle of competent Rogers in the last five or six years. I am worried about the way that his interest in personnel is going to impact this team. I think that like there's a lot of worlds. in which the Jets start out strong, and they win a few games. And then when they lose one or two, everybody feels good, and we know that we're a good team.

And so everything's hunky-dory. But I think there's also a lot of worlds where if things are shaky early, which Rogers Packers teams, you know, necessarily get off to great starts over the last couple of years, Rogers really, really rusty in the first few games of the season last years. And obviously he got some preseason action this year, so maybe that'll be different. But if things start shaky,

I just wonder how long the team goes before, fingers start getting pointed. And I just, I'm very worried about Nathaniel Hackett's ability to manage Rogers. I'm very worried about Joe Douglas's and Robert Saul's ability to manage their, their roster and their weapons relative to Rogers. Like, I, I have all the enthusiasm for the world of Garrett Wilson, but I also know that Garrett Wilson like freestyle is quite a bit. Gary Wilson's not the strictest and most responsible receiver in terms of timing, which is like generally like a good thing. I think he has a, um, a natural gift such that it's okay. that he does that. But I could see Rogers getting pissed off about that. Running back situation.

What's going to have when Breece Hall is back and looks incredible, but then he misses a pass protection assignment and all of a sudden, Dalvin Cook's taken 65, 70% of the snaps, right? Like, I struggle so much to bind to the culture on offense of the Jets because of the way that I know Rogers tends to manage his Packers teams down the stretch and the amount of power he's already been given by this New York organization. I think there's a lot of ways this goes left. So it's hard for me to have a total faith in the football jets, even though they're good on paper, because of what I know of the culture jets. All valid. I have questions about the coaching staff. For sure. I do think this is a, yeah, this is a team where if they need something,

they're probably going to make bad decisions for the future and go get it at the trade deadline. They're just everybody's kind of job is on the line here in New York. So all valid. I think some of those things can go wrong and they can still go 10 and 7, but I agree that they have a low floor. I mean, this could be everybody laughing at chill in week nine. Like, you moron, this team stinks. Look, out is a complete disaster. Aaron Rogers is disgusting. We're talking, like, all those things could absolutely happen.

So what do you have the Jets as your final record? I have the Jets as the 8 seat at 9 and 8. I have the AFC super challenging. Okay. So we just have them flipped. The Jets. Yeah. Oh, no, well, I have the Jets 10 and 7.

You have the Dolphins 11, 6. I have the Dolphins 9 and 8. You have the Jets 9 and 8. Yeah. Okay. Gotcha. All right. Patriots really quickly, I guess I've got them at 7 and 10. I mean, I just don't see it. I look at

the roster and it just screams mediocrity to me, 25 and 25 since Brady left. Bill O'Brien, I've said it before on this podcast. I thought the Patriots really couldn't need it to find an offensive coordinator who could do more with less. I understand Bill O'Brien gives them competency. Bill O'Brien never directed an offense that finished better in the top half of the league, the Texans, and that was three years with Deshaun Watson. Now I'm supposed to believe he's going to do that with Mack Jones and Devante Parker and Kendrick Bourne and Juju Smith-Schuster. And by the way, an offensive line that if you've been reading the reports out of New England, I mean, they got a lot of questions on their offensive line with injuries and stuff this summer.

You don't like the Trent Brown Riley Reef starting tackle duo in the year of our Lord, 2023? You're not into that? Their guards aren't, you haven't, you know, I guess Cole's Strange return, but Owen Wu, it hasn't been. has had injury issues. So yeah, they've got a lot going on there. I think the defense is good, but regresses a little bit. I think they'll be a competitive team. I've got them at seven and ten. Where do you have the Patriots? Yeah, I have the Patriots at exactly seven and 10. I would be really tempted to like, say like sneaky playoff team. Like I bought a Patriots, watch out. If they had a pass catcher that I really thought was dynamic, right? I'm a big Romandre

Stevenson guy. I'm a totally fine Mac guy. Like the estimations on Mac after year one were way too high. The estimations on Mac after year two were way too low. I agree. Yeah, this isn't a Mac Jones, like a reflection of Mac Jones to me. You know, I think he's in that class of quarterbacks where if the circumstances are good, I'd be like, all right, yeah, we saw that two years ago. Perfectly acceptable quarterback.

Yeah. So like I said, a huge Romandre fan, a ton of, ton of a betting exposure to Romandre this year, a ton of fantasy exposure. I think he's going to have an incredible season. I think that their offensive line and their running game will, we'll get to a spot where they're successful once they're healthy. Um, and then defensively,

there's a lot to like at all three levels. I just look at Kendrick Bourne into juju into Devonte Parker, into Hunter Henry with like, you know, again, like, even if like, if,

like, if Taekwon Thornt had like a really strong end of last season. It was like, oh, maybe if Thornt hits. But right now, like, they just do not have the pass catchers that,

that are going to scare me against top passing offenses. And it's not like Matt, or excuse me, against top passing defenses. And it's not like Matt can account for that, uh, from a talent level perspective. So there are,

they're a run and play defense team. And like, if they were in the NFC, they might be the seven seed. In the AFC, I don't think that cuts the mustard. I agree. All right, let's take a quick. We went long on the AFC. That's an interesting division.

We'll take a break. Yeah, we'll take a break. We'll come back. We'll get to the other divisions in the AFC. Get ready for the NFL season with incredible offers from Fandul, America's number one sportsbook. Right now, new customers can bet $5 and get $200, in bonus bets guaranteed.

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23. No refunds. Terms and embargoes apply. $100 off NFL Sunday ticket, not YouTube TV. YouTube TV based plan required to watch YouTube TV. Redemption requires a Google account and current form of payment. Commercial use excluded. All right, we are back on extra point taking. AFC North Ben. We have, I think, from our first show together, a longstanding history of disagreeing on how the AFC North is going to play out. Let's see if that continues into this season. season, who do you got? Bengals are going to win it. No, I'm surprised, really. I thought you would pick the Ravens. I think the Ravens are going to be very good. I also think the Ravens are, have a change in offensive coordinator and a very dramatic shift in offensive scheme and a quarterback coming back from injury and changes his second

year of a defensive coordinator and like some young edge rushers. They got a lot of it's like in the air. And I feel really good about the way a lot of that's going to break. Like I said, I have a ton of. Remandre exposure. I think I've said on the show before. I've never had more preseason exposure on a single player than I do on Lamar Jackson passing overs. You can get Lamar Jackson over 3,300 passing yards on Fandall right now. That is a ludicrous number. That is an unbelievably low number for a player who's going to be playing in a past first offense who won

MVP as a quarterback. That is, it is an astonishing number. If Lamar is healthy, he's going over that number. I like it. You're like offended by Fandul's number. You should call them. Yeah. It's, I will say, like, you know, Fandall, partner ring around a feldcher, love Fandall. Fandall, is usually sharper on preseason player props than the other books are, right? If you go, if you go and you, because you look at lines just to see, okay, who's higher, who's lower, kind of what's the average here? And Fandle's lower than other books on the Lamar line. And I, Fandle, Fandle, talk to me. I will tell you. You know, you got to jack this puppy up.

You know what? You know what? They're playing chess here. Solac. They knew. Stolak's not going to be able to resist this. forget all the ad reads. He's just going to incorporate this organically

into the highly popular Extra Point Taken show. And now everyone's going to be logging into their Fandual app. So I think that is probably the lesson. Big brain. Go ahead. Anyways, this was supposed to be by the Bengals. I think a lot's going to break right for the Ravens, but a lot has already

broken right for the Bengals. Right? Burrow, Brian Callahan, Lou Aniromo. We know about it. The T. Higgins and Jemar Chase Like this passing offense is going to be successful. Their offensive line reached that caliber you needed to reach it last year where they're not going to be a massive issue. And then they added Orlando Brown, which if Brown is a big jump,

which I waver on that, but if Brown's a jump, then you have a quality offensive line. Joe Mixon comes back. They have to fill the Somagie P Ryan role. But in general, like, this running game was functional last year, even with Mixing not necessarily being the most affected back. Like, we know this works. defensively there's room for questions the departures of

Von Bell and Jesse Bates inviting those questions but they did a good job keeping the front fairly stable. Joseph Osai injury is a little bit frustrating but they keep get both linebackers back, Reader's back, Hendrickson's back on an extension, and then Cam Taylor Brett who is a second round pick. I keep on saying he was a day three pick. He was a

second round pick. We had a listener remind me. Stepping at one of the outside corner spots to take over for Eli Apple just the continued good drafting of Duke Tobin, the ability to cycle these guys back in. They have Dax Hill now to be that safety in the back end for them. And they feel really positive about what they've seen from Dax Hill. So we'll find out that's where you introduce the uncertainty.

But we're talking about the back-to-back AFC North champion where the biggest uncertainty is, will the first round pick that they took at safety last year be able to step in? Like that's like your largest question. Joe Burroughs back in practicing. Like I feel I would be very stunned if the Bengals like totally fall through the floor with the way they've evolved the offense. The way they've responded to defensive changes. like this is a very mature and very competitive team.

So I think it's going to be a great division. I think they're going to lose some close games in division. The record might not look at his last year, but I think they're still going to be good enough to win it. You've got them at what? What's the win total for the Bengals? 12 and 5. Worth remarking, no team has ever won the AFC North three years in a row.

Last time it happened, it was called the AFC Central. All right? So this is the Bengals here, potential record-setting season of dominance in this long-time competitive division. It's really cool. I've got the Bengals too. I just think they're a complete team. And I just trust Burrow, Burrow was the quarterback we were talking about earlier. And we don't need to get in a big discussion

about it. But I absolutely put him in that class. I mean, his last four years, he had one of the greatest college seasons we've ever seen 60 touchdown, six interceptions. He got to the Super Bowl in his second season. And then he got to the NFC champion. He's beaten Josh, you know, I know it's not just him, but they've beaten Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen on the road in the playoffs in consecutive seasons. Like, I just trust him. It doesn't look as flat. Like Josh Allen's highs are going to be higher and his lows are going to be lower. Joe Burrow was more of a steady hand. But I think that undersells what he does. I think the evolution they showed last year where it's, hey, we can't play the way we played in 2021. You've mentioned it before. Usually quarterbacks who take a lot of sex,

continue to take a lot of sacks. Not Burrow. He changed the way he played. They were more efficient. They were great on early downs. And so I just trust him. Like, I think he's going to be playing this way. you know, hopefully he's healthy for like the next 10 years. And it's just going to be year in and year out. Joe Burrow completing like 68 to 70% of his passes. The Bengals finishing with the top eight offense. The Bengals either winning the AFC North or it's a wildcard team. And I just find him to be a very reliable, trustworthy quarterback.

So last year, 14 and 5, if you include the playoffs, and they lost one game by more than a field goal. Like this was a really impressive, complete team last year. I think it's going to continue this year. They're sort of taking the offensive line philosophy of we don't need all pros. Let's just try to make sure we don't have a weakness. And I think that's fine. I think they're deeper than they've been probably with Burrow.

And with Orlando Brown, let me clarify. I don't think Orlando Brown is an elite left tackle. So I already know you're going to be yelling at me in week three when he gives up like a big sack and say, I told you, I think he's an upgrade on Jonah Williams at left tackle. And I think he's going to be an upgrade for them as a whole because this was a very good rushing team last year. and I think they're going to be a good rushing team again this year. So, yeah, the burrow calf injury, it gave me a little scare. But as we record this, there was footage.

We saw the footage. He returned to practice. And so hopefully he's on track to return in week one and be okay. So I don't think I have a lot more to add. I'm a little less bullish on their defense than you. Bill Barnwell had a graphic that I really liked where he kind of looked at how many defenses, like basically defenses that face the most and the fewest, like starting quarterbacks for, you know, who benefited the most from facing backups, basically.

And the Bengals were number one, I think. It was like 56% or something of their opposing past attempts last year were against backup or number two quarterbacks. And the safety stuff, I can't like understate that. I mean, those guys were really good and knew that scheme inside and out, Von Bell and Jesse Bates. So even if they're bullish on the new guys, I feel like there's probably going to be a little learning curve there. And I think they take a little step back. So I've got a I have a graphic on my Twitter about how against elite quarterbacks since 2021, against the Bengals defense, they average Mack Jones as EPA per play. So I got my own graphic to go up against Barnwell's,

Barnwell's anti-Lew propaganda out there, but Barnwell's absolutely correct. There you go. Listen, I like a Lou also. All right. So we've both got the Bengals winning the division. Do you have a wildcard team from this division? The Ravens, baby. Yeah.

Okay. I think Baltimore's, like, everything I said about Baltimore at the top, I think Baltimore is going to end up really good. If they end up really good by figuring it out in November, we might be in trouble. I think they're going to be able to figure it out through October and be okay. Worth remarking, this Ravens team played the Bengals really, really well down the stretch late, especially defensively.

They were the team that gave the most issues to Cincinnati. That playoff game, man, like, again, like, if only is unjust for candies and nuts. Like, it's, you talk about hypotheticals all this. time, but it took a 99-yard Fumble return for a touchdown for the backup quarterback for the Bengals to beat the Ravens in the postseason. We should have had the Dolphins beat the Bills and the Ravens beat the Bengals, both with backup quarterbacks in the postseason last year. And think about how twisted and hard these narratives would be if that's what happened. But it isn't. We get Bengals Ravens a week two this year. It can be a really early test for,

okay, was what adjustments have Joe Burdo made and Brian Callahan made to deal with this defense? And then what is the new look offense going to look like? Is it going to be a good enough passing game to really outscore the Bengals and to push for this division title? I don't necessarily, again, think it'll be in September, but I think they're going to get there. The two things about the Ravens that I think are really, really important sort of mark. Number one, wide receiver-wise,

like, between Zayflowers, O'Do Beckham Jr., Rashad Bateman, do we know if any of them are good? No. probably what, like, in total, just like the cumulative odds that one of them is good are pretty high. I feel, I feel positively about one of these guys being available

and impactful long term for the Ravens. There's still worlds in which they get like two, and that's incredible. But I do think that like, there's some like, oh, like the Ravens, you know, what right receivers do they have? I think in general,

they have enough talent and enough, like, this is a first round pick, a first round pick and an ex, like, young star receiver in the league. Like, was, O'Dell was good last time. we saw him pre-injury. And he took a long time off off that injury. It's not like he's coming off an ACL from nine months ago. This was over a season ago. So I think you do feel

good about that. That's number one. And we're comparing them to last year's group. Yeah, I'm kind with you. I have been saying that like, are we sure any of these guys? I think at one point it was a little overrated how big the upgrades were and how sure people felt about it. But I think the way you framed it is correct. The odds are it's going to be much better than last year, even if it's not, you know, among the new 10 best in the league. Yeah. And then the other thing is I, when we talked about this a little bit on the defensive pod, I, the biggest concern I have for the Ravens is that they're not going to have enough edge rush presence to really, really win with a four-down rush. And over the last few years against these elite quarterbacks in the AFC,

particularly Mahomes and Allen, you can't blitz them. It's just like if you do, you die. And I'm worried that with O'Dafay Owe and with David Ojabo, there's just not, Javan Clown gets added in free agency. there's just not enough of an outside pass rush presence there. They're going to have to rush the passer. Even if that's the case, I will say this team is really, really, really, really well suited to be that simulated pressure team, to be that send forward from a different spot team

because they have guys who can drop in coverage. And they have such a good spine, right? Like Michael Pierce, Justin Matabuky at defensive tackle, Rochwell and Smith, Patrick Queen at linebacker, Marcus Williams, Kyle Hamilton at safety. They have such a good spine of the defense. They can do a lot of... They're one of the very few teams that has the necessary personnel to be really creative with their pressure packages and, like, spin guys around and rotate guys around and actually do it successfully.

So there's a lot of that is assuming Mike McDonald's really got the juice. And I currently think Mike McDonald has the juice. I'm not sure if he has enough juice or if I'm confident enough in my estimation of his juice. But if he's really got it, then like this can be the sort of team where like, think about like the Spagnolo Chiefs where like you get to the postseason. And it's like they don't have a pass rusher. How are they doing this? they're just really extremely good blitz team that that calls at the right times and and and always gets that free rusher like the the ravens have a similar makeup you just don't like spags

has got 20 years of experience doing this and McDonald's a young cat so you don't know for sure but there's worlds in which like even with bad edge rush presence the ravens still are are a good enough pressure team to get the job done against league quarterbacks so i've got the and you have the ravens winning how many games are the ravens winning 11 games so bangles in the division at 12 Ravens win 11 and 6. Okay, I've got the Ravens at 10 and 7, but missing the playoffs. Because ahead of them. They're in a tie with another team in this, and the other team wins the tiebreaker.

And that's the Pittsburgh Steelers. I've got making the playoffs. These are your boys. 10 and 7. It's kind of like I'm just pandering to the Solac family. I was bad to say. Yeah, you called Nick Siriani, the Pandir King with like Philadelphia stuff. I'm kind of the Pandar King with just the Solac family.

The Solac family. I'll wear that. It's a good spot to be in. So I like the, listen, the Ravens have won 74% of their games with Lamar Jackson. That's a wild number. 74% of their games when he's the starter. I know that's not all because of Lamar. A lot of it is because of Lamar.

They've had good special teams. They've had good defenses. But they have different ways they can win. I like that about the Ravens. They can win with offense. They can win with defense. They can win with special teams. I'm a little concerned that this transition with a new offensive.

coordinator and two new wide receivers that it's going to take some time for them to really become what we think and hope that they can become offensively. So I think that could show itself in the first whatever, half of this season. And that's why I'm a little lower on them maybe than you. And then defensively, I agree with it. Like I look at the Ravens and I go, I trust the infrastructure. Not only Mike McDonald, John Harbaugh is like a really, you know, I know he was a special teams coach. He's a really good defensive coach, in my opinion as well. Like they've done. this under multiple defensive coordinators, but what did you tell me on a recent pod? A lot of times defense comes down to can you rush and can you cover? And I go, yeah, I don't really know if they

can do either with Marlon Humphrey being injured. So I do trust them to do more with less. But at the end of the day, it's like, you know, there are going to be downs where you can't kind of fool the offense or make the quarterback hold the, hold the ball for an extra half second. And it's just like a one-on-one. Can your guy beat the other guy? And I don't love them. in that aspect of it. So that's probably why I'm a little bit lower on them there. And then the Steelers, listen, the Steelers, I just look at a Mike Tomlin coach team and he's given us 16 years of evidence that the floor is probably 500 with, I couldn't believe last year, you know, the other Rafflesberger year, how is this team getting to 500? And so I just trust the coach and the infrastructure that they'll

go through Oppos and Downs and by the end of the year, you'll look up and they will either be at 500 or above 500. So that's one thing. And then, Kenny Pickett, year one to year two. I'm not telling you he's Joe Montana like Papa Solac, but I do think he improved last year. And I am interested to see what he brings to the table this year. The offensive line has questions, but I think they address some of those in the offseason. And I think there's a scenario where the offensive line is pretty good. The past catchers are good with Pickens and Deontay Johnson and Friamuth, who had, what, over 700 yards last year. So I like all that. And I love the defense. I think it's a top 10 defense. I think it could be a top

five defense. I think it could be the best defense in the NFL. Now, to my point about the Ravens, do I have questions that they can cover? Yes, I do have questions that they can cover. I don't have questions about whether they're going to rush the passer though. I mean, that is a formidable front seven, specifically a formidable pass rush with T.J. Watt, Cam Hayward, High Smith, Marcus Golden, Keanu Benton. I'm with the hipsters on Keanu Benton, Benzel. I think he's going to be a very good rookie right away. So I like all that. Listen, the reason I'm hesitant is because basically the only thing the smart football people in my life can unanimously agree on is that Matt Canada is not a good offensive coordinator. I mean, I don't know anyone who zags to that

opinion and that analysis and they will show you the clips and they will tell you, look at this, what are they doing here? How is this their offense? Literally, everybody I know who I trust, with football opinions. Does that scare me a little bit? Yes, that scares me a little bit. If they had made an OC change and they had someone who I felt really good about, if they like went and got Kellyn Moore or something, I would probably be even more bullish on the Steelers. But that's the reason why I don't have them winning the division and I have them at 10 and 7. But I think the pieces are there for this to be a really good team. Tell me why I am not. No, I, the, the August, like the Award for August team among sports writers goes to the Steelers.

I feel like every... Is that true? Oh, like, me and as big on the Steelers right now. You're big on the Steelers. Good company. Right. Pick, it had the like all preseason. He threw three go balls.

Like, oh, baby. I don't pay attention to that. No, that's, I'm out on that part of it. They've been, they've just been the August team. They've been the Sleeper team. They've been the hype team. I am really worried about this coverage unit. I think that I agree that the Steelers,

and four is very exciting. I like Cole Holcomb. I've always liked Cole Holcomb, but Holcomb is a limited player in coverage because of his size. Lyndon Roberts is not much of an impact player in coverage because of how he plays. And then it's Levi Wallace,

DeMonti KZ, Patrick Peterson, and Chandon Sullivan, all filling in around Minka. There's only so much the young man Minka can do. I'm not putting a limit on what he can do. He might be able to do all of it. Cover everybody. I think when you're snagging off of waivers a cornerback that was released by the Houston Texans

in Desmond King, that kind of tells you what the coaching staff feels about your secondary there. And King's got utility, like he's a blitz player for them. He's like, you know, he's like a sub-package, Mike Hilton guy for them.

Like, I get that. But in general, this is a really shaky secondary and it's an injuring away, which is not like a rare thing to project on a secondary, it's got Patrick Peterson, who's over 30, DeMontockezy and Levi Wallace, to injury away from, like, really having some guys that you can, you can, you can, you can, you can, you can, you can circle.

Like, they're going to start Channing Sullivan. The Vikings are going to bring back Chanon Sullivan. Like, this is not, this is a, is a, is a very worrisome group to me that I think gets, that gets passed over and kind of waved away a lot more. The other thing is, I think that my, like, Pickett played better last season than I, then I thought he would as a rookie, and he improved.

I don't think. that the year two leap for Pickett is going to be as large as a lot of people expect. And the reason for that is it goes back to like like, like, um, like just like play style. Like, picket's a weird dude where in terms of play style, you would assume he's like, like, six, four, two 20 and runs like a, like a four or five. Like he, he's like, like, constantly screwing around back there, like scrambling, break tackles, like launch the ball down the field. And he, he, he doesn't have that degree of athleticism to him. Like, he,

he gets it done by being smart and making really, making really quick decisions and being aggressive and giving his receiver's chances. I don't, like, it's not, I don't think pick it's going to come out from this summer and something to speak way faster or like,

way bigger and way stronger. I think he's going to continue playing the same way and kind of living on. That's a kind of a razor edge that you live on. Quarterbacks typically don't change their stripes. So I don't think in year two in the NFL he's going to start being this like dynamic dice him up from the pocket passer, which he's never been. Like,

there's there's there's there's like a fan fiction that gets written about him that's like he's like you know processor that he just he does not it at pit and he was not it last year it's not it doesn't happen on this film um and i don't guys don't just start doing that at the nflow level if they do it's usually because they have to because they have no other alternative and picket does have alternative he does his run around scramble thing um and so i don't think the year two leap for picket is going to be as as as large as people want it to be as large as people hope it'll be i i i can't emphasize this enough because i know ciosman's going to be mad at me he's definitely better in the league than I thought he'd be.

I just, I don't, the issue is I see, I see picket bumping into the ceiling. And this was my issue with him coming out. I don't see how it gets a lot better than, than what we've already seen from him. But I was wrong before. So maybe I'm wrong again. Yeah, I haven't got their offense making a minor jump. I sort of agree with you there. I think they'll be slightly above average, uh, offensively.

And I'm kind of counting on the defense and the coaching to lead the way. Also, eighth easiest schedule in the NFL if you look at, projected win total. So I've got the Steelers and Ravens, both at 10 and 7, but the Steelers getting in. Where do you have the Steelers? Ben, how many wins? I have them at 9 and 8, and then I have the Browns at 6 and 11. I'm officially planting the flag. I don't think the Browns are going to be good. I don't think Deshawn Watson's going to play well. And I think if Sean Watson doesn't play well, I don't think the offense works. And then defensively, I think they can get a lot better from last season just because of replacement value. Like,

you just, Jim Schwartz just makes them functional. But I don't see them. Like you obviously team as a super high ceiling defense. I don't have them there. So like the Browns will be good if Deshawn's good. And I don't have a lot of faith right now that Deshawn's going to be good. I've got them at 9 and 8 not making the playoffs. And everything that has nothing to do with X's and O's or personnel. I just think the pressure on this group, I don't trust them to handle it.

With the Deshaun Watson move with him having four years of guaranteed money, with everyone feel like they're coaching and everything they're doing in that building is for job security. and I think there's going to be, you know, stories about, hey, Deshaun doesn't necessarily love this offense. Then there's going to be stories about, well, Stefansky maybe wasn't, you know, 100% on board with, like, there's going to be, I think, finger pointing starting, and I think it's going to be tough to get over. I mean, on paper, you could absolutely make the case that Watson should be more of the player he was previously, but, come on, it's been three years since he's been a good quarterback. Like, this isn't just one year down. I mean, he didn't play, and then last year he was not good in this scheme. I also think they're thin offensively.

I mean, one Bradley Chub or one Amari Cooper injury away from looking around and going, wait, who is making place for this offense? So, yeah, I don't think they're going to have a great offense. I think their defense is going to be really good. I think the pressure is going to get to them. And I think they're going to be around 500. I've got them slightly over, but not making the playoffs. All right, that's the AFC.

North, AFC South. Ben Solac, are we going to go four for four with our same division winners? What's going on here? Who do you guys? You shouldn't have picked, I mean, like, South and West, yeah, it's over. Like, we're not. It's far from four for sure. This is wild.

The Jaguars are winning this division, for sure. Yeah, the Jaguars are winning this division. They're going to win it because they're a very, they're a very good team. They have a very good coach and Doug Peterson, a very good quarterback in Trevor Lawrence. They have now, I think, a really nice cadre of weapons featuring Calvin Ridley, which Ridley is another one of these guys where, okay, there's probably going to be a onboarding process when he comes back. It's probably going to be a little bit of rust for Redley to knock off.

But once you knock it off, that's a legit wide receiver one. You have a great receiving tight end in Evan Ingram. You have a good second receiver, Christian Kirk, good third receiver in Zay Jones. Like when this last year was Kirk, Zay and Ingram, it like didn't make sense because you're like, what? And then you introduce Ridley. It's like an actual wide receiver one. You're like, oh, now everybody else's role makes sense. Everybody knocks down a slot and this is intuitive.

Travis E.TN, who's a great back. It has, you know, a dynamic play in a league opening. offense opening ability and also has some issues so the draft tank bigs being they kind of try to shore that up a little bit. So you have a backfield that you like a ton. You have an offensive line that I think is an underrated offensive line. Cam Robinson absence in the beginning of the year, but they love Walker Lowe on the left side and Anton Harrison. The rookie has looked really, really good at right tackle for them in the preseason. This is a great offensive coaching staff in Doug Peterson and then a great offense in Trevor Lawrence and company. Awesome.

defense yeah you know just don't worry about it we'll be fine I would like for one of these Edrushers to be good

I would like for Tyson Campbell deserves his due that's a good solid outside corner right there like yeah and Campbell there's just so many guys

that you look at this roster who are either like stacking contract for agents who were like signed to decently sized deals

right Roy Robertson Harris Devon Hamilton Foley Fott de Kasi or guys who were drafted somewhere in the first couple of rounds. Josh Allen, Trayvon Walker, Devin Lloyd, Andresoskro in the third round, right? You have a FOIA-Louiscona linebacker's another free agent guy. And you're just like,

all right, who is my high impact player over here? Like, who is my guy who's like, you know, top 10, top 15 in his position? Like Josh Allen looked like he was kind of on that way, maybe at some point, but I think he's kind of rounded out to not necessarily be that guy. And then, like I said, Tyson Campbell is a solid corner one. But, even then again, it's not like a, okay, super high impact. Like, scary, he's always going to land up against the other wider Super 1. He's always going to dominate. This defense, they've poured resources in, but they just have not gotten paid off

for that. And I think it'll continue to be a acceptable defense. I don't think it'll win games for you. I think there'll probably be a couple of top offenses you play where you're just begging it to get a stop and it can't. I don't think it's like terrible and bad enough that they're in jeopardy of losing the division in a division that otherwise has not a lot of teeth to it. But man, like this Jaguar's offense rounded out on such a nice timeline. It's so emphatically ready.

And you just wish this defense were ready to pull its weight and like give the Jags and like actual legit legs as like a top tier AFC team. I just can't get there because of that side of the depth chart. How many wins for the Jaguars? I gave the Jaguars 10 wins. The Jaguars are 10 and 7. I was very tempted to give them more. But then I didn't because that's responsible.

You looked at the defense. Yes. I've got the Jaguars at 11 and 6 winning the division. I mean, offensively, I don't have a lot more to add. I think Trevor Lawrence is going to be a full-blown superstar this year. I mean, yeah, you listen, you might read a bold, bold predictions column from a bald, handsome Indian man next week on the ringer, and that might be one of his, one of his predictions. Kevin Nagandi lost his hair and started working for us?

Never. I mean, have you seen him? Kevin Nagandi, the goat sports in his hair is not going anywhere. Lucky guy. All right. Yeah, I just think the offense is going to be great. I trust the coach. I trust the quarterback.

Last year was coming off of, like that was the first year of them together. And they're throwing to Christian, like you said, Christian Kirk and Zay Jones. Now you add a Ridley to that mix. I think it's all going to come together and it's going to be a top five offense. I'm with you on the defense. The only hope, if you're a Jaguars fan listening to this and you're like, no, give me hope that they can like get to the AFC championship or even the Super Bowl. I will say they have a lot of young players on defense. They're like maybe, you know, with pedigrees.

Maybe a couple of those guys pop. but really there's no statistical case for the defense to be better. I think they were 26th in DVOA last year, and that was with a lot of luck, like the turnover stuff, the health luck, working in their favor. And so there's just, unless those young players really take a step up,

which is possible, I don't think they're going to have a great defense, so I've got them in 11 and 6. I would say there's a little bit more hope that the Jaguars are an AFC championship team, and that is you had the ball, you're down to scores, but you had the ball with five minutes left

against the Chiefs 17 to 27. Like the Jaguars played the Chiefs well in that division around game, right? They held their water. And they had turnovers, right? Their last, two of the last three meaningful drives were a fumble, which was inside the Kansas City 10, if memory serves, and then an interception. A young team making mistakes on a big stage,

not an unfamiliar trope. This after, they were two in eight, two and seven, and then finished the season on like a seven-win, six-win streak to even get there, right? you're a little tired, right? You feel like you're, you know, you feel like you're ordained, right? It was always the Jags, as they said last year. But you're also like wiped. This year, like, handle your business, beat up on a bad division, get that, that Z next

to your name or that X, that Y. I don't know what the letters are. Lock down the division, week 15, week 16. And you can really like spend the, that end of the season orienting yourself on here's how we're going to beat the really good teams. And so like, even if the defense is as they were last year, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that this offense and this coach. coaching staff is good enough that like a couple things break their way. The Jacks could be a one of

the two teams left in the AFC. I agree with that. And then the attention on the defense will really get big once they're on that stage and you realize just how much more they need they need a boost on that side of the ball. Yeah, I agree with that. The offense does give them a high ceiling. I think it can be that good. And then defensively, it's like even if you're not that great, can you come up with a, get, you know, something in a one game playoff that allows you to survive and gives the offense a chance to win. All right. The rest of this division, I don't think we need to spend a whole lot of time. Do you have another wildcard team from this division? I guess I should ask. No. Okay. If I'm, if I, if I, if I, if I, if I, if I, if, if I, if, if I, if, if I, if, if, if, if, if, if, if,

show it up and it was me six months in the future and I told you that the Titans made the wild card round how surprised would you be not surprised I've got the Titans at eight and nine and of the teams I left off they were the one I'm like ooh I'm kind of intrigued by having them in there but I just looked at 35 year old quarterback and bottom 5 O line and I couldn't do it I like the defense I have questions about them at corner I kind of like the supporting cast around tannihill more than I certainly did like you know five months ago as a big trailer the first guy yeah I I can't, the offensive line, I can't. That's the issue.

100%. That's it. Yeah, that's it. So how many wins do you have for the Titans? I have the Titans at 7 and 10. But again, a 10 and 7 Titans team would just shock me absolutely zero. Yeah. I've got them at 8 and 9. I've got the Colts 5 and 12.

I've got the Texans 4 and 13. Where do you have those two teams? I have the Colts of 5 and 12. I have the Texans of 3 and 14. Okay. Colts are a weird one. that roster bad right like the the cults general colts roster management is something i've talked about a lot and there was a press conference yesterday that i had a bunch of tweets lined up and i kept

deleting them so i was like there's no need for this but i oh what discipline what restraint you've shown you're maturing if people like people look at my twitter like you tweet a lot and you tweet things and you get aggressive on people i'm like you should see the stuff i don't tweet tiger all right, this is just curated content. That sounds like a show next off season. Here are the tweets Ben didn't send out. Nope, it does not. I, if you, if you, I do not have a burner account for many reasons.

But one of them is because the amount that I would tweet about 19 year old individuals when I'm losing money on a college football game would be just, damn it. It would be so bad. Regardless, what were we talking about? The Titans? you were saying the Colts roster stinks but the Colts love to do this whole thing about like oh the quarterback and Jonathan Taylor like what are we doing crazy

what happened to the rest of this roster man like you you can cover the parts of the Colts roster that they like want like they oh we've had such unlock and such drama here like all this nonsense what happened a wide receiver what happened a corner what happened a defensive line what are we doing this is not a good roster and so the Colts I like

my first pass, I was like, they're 1 in 16. And then I was like, nah, they don't want 16. Because once Richardson starts getting his sea legs under him, Richardson's got that ability to like, you know, fold an offense, bend an offense, kind of, they be such an impactful force that they're going to be able to beat some bad teams late in the season. Yeah, I think his legs and then his cannon,

it's like there'll be a couple of weeks. We're all going, okay, there it is. That's why they picked him. But man, 21 years old, started 13 games at college and completed 53.8% of his passes. last year with that supporting cast. Like, that's it. I don't think they're going to pass the ball well.

I don't think they're going to cover the pass well. I'm hard to win games like that. They do have the third easiest schedule. That's why I got them up to 5 and 12. And then the Texans, I think the defense can be interesting. I think the run game can be interesting. They've already had some O-line issues. I don't like their skill group.

I think they're going to have a rough go there at 4 and 13. All right. Take a quick break. We'll come back. We'll get to the AFC West and then we'll pick our super. Bowl winner for the 2023 season. Crazy. All right, we are back on extra point taken.

I don't know how much time we really need to spend on the Chiefs. I've got them, unless you have a surprise for me. I've got them at 12 and 5, last five years with Mahomes. 12, 12, 14, 12, 14. Their wins. Do I have some concerns about the offensive tackles and the wide receivers and no Chris Jones? Yes.

Do I also think I'm going to have those concerns and they're still going to win 12 games? Yes. What did I miss? You missed their 13th win to get them to 13 and 4. Other than that, other than that nothing. I will say, I would like for this team to employ Chris Jones fairly soon, okay? Yeah. I started to do my power rankings and prognosticate some player props for week one.

And this line's rushing game against this non-Christ Jones chiefs defense man, I tell you right now. I'm just saying, like, if you're Chris Jones and you're saying, okay, I, you know, where, where's my leverage? What are, what's my, what's my, uh, like, you know, what's it going to look like if I have to hold out, right? Lions are a great week one opponent to draw man, because they are about to run the football all over this,

this Chief's defense. Um, I think that, I think that, I think Jones is back in the Chief's uniform fairly soon. And if it's not for week one, I'd be pretty quick, quickly after week one, because, this is a worrisome defensive front against the run

against the past too, for being honest, for as long as Chris Jones isn't out there. Yeah, it's wild. I did my defensive rankings for the ringer, and I looked at the Chiefs, and I'm like, this could be one of the better defenses they've had with Mahomes. I'm like, they got a lot of young players who played last year, who if they continue to improve, this could be really good. And so I had them at 17, and then I did the exercise of,

Sheel, what if Chris Jones doesn't play? And I'm like, holy cow, I think I'd have them at like 25 or 26. Like, talk about, if you talk about players that, like, one defense can't afford to lose, he's got to be in, like, the top five to eight in the NFL. And, like, obviously, we, we know more than just last season off of Chris Jones. But if you're going off the last season, you're losing 15 and a half sacks. Yeah. If you don't bring the guy back, right?

Which is more than his defensive tackle typically accounts for. It's right. It's, they have, they have Caitlin Saunders departing free agency, right? Obviously, like, the George Carloftus draft pick and the Felix and you do Kuzoma draft pick, I think are both good selections to round out this, this, this pass rush. But if you cannot possibly get the luck you did off of all your young secondary players last year and go straight into all of your young defensive linemen working, if you do, that's just cheating, to have 15 and then to also be able to do that.

So I just think, right, without Jones, first of you, I think that, like, the defensive line is going to have such big issues. Then secondly, like Nick Bolton, you know, there's a huge, like, postseason run, like ton of tackles, like ton of his ability. Bolton's a good player, a useful player. You want to see the limits of a smaller, stubbier linebacker, though.

Take Chris Jones out from in front of him and then asking to play the same way and see what happens. But again, Bolton's a fine player. But I think Bolton's getting in for a different world if he's playing without Chris Jones on the defensive line. I do not think the lines are beating the Chiefs,

obviously. but I do think that this lion's offense can put a lot of points on this defense. I think we're in for a fun season opener. A week from today, Sheal! There you go. All right, I have a feeling that we're going to disagree. So you have your two wildcards so far

are the Ravens and the Dolphins. My two are the Steelers and the Jets. I think we may disagree on the third one as well. Who is your third wildcard team out of the AFC West? Are you taking the Broncos? Defend yourself. I ask you a question. Ben, never answer a question with a question.

Just define your choices. All right, I am taking the Broncos. Ten and seven, I've got the Broncos. Do I feel good about it? Of course not. I feel disgusting about it. I want to go upstairs right now and take a shower and see, you know, when you smack yourself in the face and splash water,

what am I doing with my life? We've all had those moments. Maybe I'm sharing a little too much here. That's what I want to do when I say out loud I'm picking the Broncos to make the playoffs. Here's the rule. It's the Urban Meyer rule, Ben. You look for the biggest train wreck from the year before,

and you pick that team to significantly improve and make the playoffs. Urban Meyer to Doug Peterson, six win improvement, playoffs. Joe Judge to Brian Daibald, five win improvement, playoffs. Now, Daniel Hackett, to Sean Peyton, we're approving by five wins. We're getting to 10 and 7, and we're making the playoffs. I mean, just the coaching is obviously a big thing. We don't need to get into it.

John Payton legitimately one of the best coaches in the NFL in the last 20 years. I mean, that run he had in New Orleans is nearly unmatched. Yes, it was a lot of Drew Breeze. I know Drew Breeze isn't walking through that door. Sean Payton had a stretch in 2020 and 2021 where he went 8 in 1 with Teddy Bridgewater and Taysam Hill as his quarterbacks. That's actually what I like about Peyton is he will adjust for what the game calls for, what his personnel calls for.

So you got the coaching upgrade. you've got the injury luck that should work in their favor. They were the most injured team in the NFL last year. Now I looked at that a month ago and felt good about it. Now I'm like, no, no, no. They're having one of these 49ers seasons where they were injured last year and they're injured again this year with Tim Patrick and Jerry Judy. But you know what?

I don't know how long Judy's going to be out. I think with Sutton, with the run game, hopefully they'll be okay. I don't think the offense is going to be great. I think it's going to be competent. defensively, I kind of like the talent. I like Vance Joseph as a defensive coordinator. This unit is more talented than the Cardinals teams that he got top 10 defenses out of there.

So listen, I'm reluctantly rolling the dice knowing that we could be doing an extra point taken in week six that leads with what do you think about Sean Payton rolling with Jared Stidham and benching Russell Wilson. So that's where I'm at. I have the Chargers, Justin Herbert. So listeners, ask, just to just,

tune in, who had the better reasoning? Sheal, what he said, and Ben, who took the Chargers who have Justin Herbert. 25 and 24 with Justin Herbert as their quarterback. I like Justin Herbert, but that cannot be... Wins, my dear friend, are not a quarterback. We're literally talking about how many wins teams are going to have. It was going to make the playoffs. This isn't a quarterback ranking show.

This is how many wins is he... I feel like that was a role reversal. That would be something I would say. And then you would call me out. So it felt good to get you on that one. All right, go ahead. Make the case for the chargers. A coaching above replacement.

Find the biggest train wreck. And the coach that steps in for him is going to dramatically improve it. All right. Just take the word coach and make it coordinator, right? Like I, the last two years of offense coordinator Joe Lombardi running the offense for Justin Herbert have been extremely frustrating to watch from a scheme perspective. And then also from a philosophy perspective.

And more so. emphasis on the second one. The way that Lombardi chose, take a quarterback who could create this downfield explosive passing offense who could generate so much and really neuter him, really limit him, is just backwards to the way that offense was developing over the course the last few years. Explosives over efficiency, go and get the chunk of play. Now, you can look at the last two years and argue, oh, the scheme boys, Ben, Ruiz, whoever you want, were too critical of Lombardi and Herbert needed to do more of this. And he now, he now, and Mike Williams were a limiting factor.

And like, there's, you can, you can, I'm very happy to have that conversation. Because there's definitely some truth to it, right? There's absolutely worlds in which I have too many eggs in the Lombardi basket in terms of blame for the charges offensive for the last few years. But in the paradigm in which I am, which is that like Lombardi was a huge limiting factor. The moment he's removed, I should believe the charges are going to take a huge step forward, right? Like, it is implied by the fact that Lombardi is being replaced by Kellen Moore, who schematically

is similar. philosophically is different. You know, there's been pieces about how, like, the language is different. But really, like, even though they speak a different language, Lombardian, more are very similar inspirations in terms of their passing offenses,

in terms of the style of routes that they want to run and where they want to line up their players. But Moore wants to get the ball downfield. He wants to stretch this field a lot more than Lombardy did. So philosophically, that big jump, like I have an elite quarterback with a solid group of receivers. Quentin Johnston is a very important, player to like actually give them some length, give them some space, give them some, some presence

downfield. And a coordinator who I think has done a really good job over the last few years, replacing a coordinator who I think has done a really poor job last few years. This should be a good enough offense that the charters are a playoff offense before we even sniff Brandon Staley in the defense. And then Brandon Staley and the defense had a really nice stretch to end last season, right? They did, they had a poor start to the season. They dealt with a ton of injury and then over the last eight games, every like a top eight

defense, right? like staley i still hold in esteem as a guy who can coach a defense around injury and coach defense around matchups and can win some games for you as as a defensive coach even if there are moments in terms of him as a decision maker analytics as a game manager as a coach and then there's also a philosophical thing with like stop the passive or stop the run that does leave you in hot water at times but like before we even get to defense i think that herbert is so good and i think that lombardi was so bad ergo like i i very much i very much much like the the the I always knew I was going to be like a raven's guy this season like

Dolphins guy of the season like I just liked the way they ended last season I like the way they built it but the thing that I've really figured out over the course of the summer is like all right everybody was in on the Chargers and then it's been too much and they've done it too long and they're getting out of it I'm I'm buying the dip I'm zagging on the Zick like I'm I'm back on Chargers Island where I just this guy this quarterback is so good and the number one thing that was limiting his ability to really take off and dominate is gone. So I think the charges are going to take a substantial leap on offense. I think they're going to be a good enough team to make the postseason. I have them doing it at 11 and 6.

I've got them at 9 and 8. I really don't disagree with anything you said about the offense. I've got them as the sixth ranked offense. This is to me like going to be. I have them as having like a frustrating season where hey, the offensive change actually worked. The quarterback's playing really well. But other stuff lead to them not not making the playoffs. I don't trust the defense as much you. I agree with you in like a one-off. We've seen Staley be creative and come up with some impressive game plans at the same time the last two years. It's been a below-average defense. So I don't really have anything there that leads me to believe that the defense is going to be significantly better, except for Joey. If Joey Bosa's healthier than he was last year, then yes,

absolutely, that could be the case. Offensively, I think Kellyn Moore did a really good job. When Dak Prescott was healthy, I've given the stat a hundred times. They were a top five offense over that four-year stretch when Dak Prescott was on the field if you just look at EPA per play. So I absolutely see it. I do want to see the downfield passing attack come to life. Like I think there's a scenario where we're having a conversation in week six where it's like, hey, it wasn't just the coaching. Why didn't they add more speed to this offense? Like they added Clinton Johnson. That's one guy that's a rookie. That's a first round thing. We don't know exactly how they're going to use him, whether he's going to be more of a yak guy or a downfield threat.

But I do think that's potentially a conversation that we're having to. having there. So again, I think the offense is going to be good. This very well could be a case of shields gotten burned by the Chargers too many times and he's not letting it happen this year and it's actually going to happen for them this year. But I just don't fully trust it. They've also got the sixth hardest schedule. It's a crowded AFC. If they were in the NFC north, I would be picking them to win the division. If they were in the NFC South, I'd be picking them to win the division. But they're not. They're in a hard conference. And so when you're picking among these teams, I've just got them slightly below those other teams who are wildcar teams.

What's your record for the Broncos? So like you have them stinking terribly or just outside looking in? The Broncos are 8 and 9. Okay. I definitely think the charges are a better team than the Broncos this year. I do hear and accept and acknowledge and agree with a lot of your Broncos logic. I do think, again, like hack it into Peyton is such a tectonic change. I like Vance.

I do think that like, well, the defense can be good. I don't think it'll be as good as it was last year. And then pass catcher-wise, like, if you tell me Marvin Mims is good, I'm like, okay, I believe. But there's so much injury and so much insecurity and so much instability, which has you worried. It would be nice to see this running game fully work, though, and just let Russ kind of be the deep drop-back Trebushé that he's always been best at

healthy Giovante is a fun thing to watch. We haven't gotten to see in a bit. I'm looking forward to that. Yeah, I mean, all their off-season moves suggest that's how Peyton believes they need to play and have to play. So we'll see if it works out or not. Raiders, what do you got for our last team here, Solac? How many wins?

4 and 13? Okay, I've got 5 and 12. Second hardest schedule. I think they're a directionless franchise. McDaniels is 17 and 28 as a head coach. Jimmy G's been healthy for at least 10 games twice in his career. and defensively, they were 31st in DVOA last year, and I don't really see a reason why they're going to be much better.

So I love the under on the Raiders. We talked about that in our previous show. We both have them as a not good team, a bottom feeder, if you will, this year. All right, now we get to the fun. A.S. the playoff bracket. This has to get your juices flowing. You're a football guy.

You're thinking about a Saturday afternoon in January. You're watching two of these teams. go head to head. Don't worry, it's only like 20 weeks away until we get to that. All right. Who do you have, give me your first round matchups, Stolak, and who you have advancing to the divisional round? Yeah, so I have the two seat chiefs because the bills won the tiebreaker, got the, oh, okay. Which I let the bills beat them in the regular season because why not?

You know, they're not going to beat them in the postseason. He might as well just toss them the regular season win. I have the two seed chiefs who they beat the seven seed chargers and they continue on. I have the three seed Cincinnati Bengals. They beat the sixth seed Miami Dolphins and they continue on. And then I have the four seed Jaguars up against the five seed Ravens, which the Ravens win. Jaguars lose it in the division round. You can't have the magic you had in last year's wildfire round and then beat my Ravens,

my team that I'm sneaking them into the playoffs because I want. want to. So your divisional round matchups are what? Austin, then that's Chiefs, excuse me, that's Bill's Ravens. Bill's will win that one. We'll give that one of the bills. And then it's Chiefs Bengals. You got to force that. You don't tell me who wins. Yeah. I do or don't. No, you don't have to tell me who wins yet. Okay, so I have Bill's Ravens and then I have Chiefs Bengals. Bill's Ravens. Okay, there you go. My Wild Card round, I've got the Bengals beating the Broncos, as you heard, I didn't even want the Broncos in there. I hate myself already for

it. So I'm not having them go to the Broncos. the divisional round. I've got the bills beating the Jets there, and I will be proven right going into that playoff round when we do our survey of Jets fans and you say, hey, before this playoff game, are you happy with how this season went? They'll say, you know what? That was a lot of fun. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, not before, after. After? After. Okay, fine,

after. All right. I get 48 hours after. All right, most of them are going to be answering assuming they win. All right, all right, that's fair. All right, we'll do it when the jet season ends, and we'll give them 48 hours to reflect on the season. and then we'll say, are you happy they've made that trade for Aaron Rogers? It got you to the playoffs, even though you didn't go further. And they'll think back to their wonderful Sundays in Florida, you know, at MetLife Stadium. And they'll say, you know what?

We had a lot of great memories there that we haven't had in 12 years. You were right, Sheel. I'm sorry I ever doubted you. All right, a little tangent. Jaguars beat the Steelers also in the Wildcard round. So I've got Chiefs Jags and Bengals Bills in the divisional round. All right. Who do you have advancing?

That's a repeat from this past season. I know. Listen, I've got 60 playoff teams this year and I've got three new division winners when you zoom out. So I was trying, but you know what? The heart wants what the heart wants. All right. I have absolutely no new AFC playoff teams have the exact same seven from last year.

That's why I couldn't do it. That's another thing that moved me away from like Chargers, Ravens. If they weren't in last year, I probably would have said, oh, yeah. No, I trust them, but I couldn't do it. Yeah, no, I'm in a glass house throwing stones here. I have the Bills beating the Ravens in the divisional round. And I have the Chiefs beating the Bengals in the divisional round. I got Chiefs Bills coming down the mountain in the conference championship game.

And you had to get Chiefs Bengals in there, right? I may or may not have Jerry rigged the seating a little bit from my initial projection. Because you got to get Chief Bengals postseason. That's Burrow Mahomes. That's the defining AOC playoff matchup. I have the Chiefs win in this one. Okay. So you've got Chiefs, Bills, and you said Chiefs beating the Bills.

bills in the AFC championship game? So I, okay. Or you didn't say that yet. No, I didn't. Okay. You don't have to. Hold on. All right.

Mike, sorry. Listen, we're like four hours in. I'm a little confused. I'm an old man. This is lunch. Well, no, it's 11 o'clock, but I eat an early lunch. I'm about a day. It is lunchtime for you.

This is mid-morning snack time for me. All right. Divisional round, I got the Chiefs beating the Jaguars and the Bengals, beating the bills. So I have the same ASC championship as last. year the same a or the last no the other one was the divisional rally so just as last year i've got chief spengals in the a fc championship all right who do you have winning it benjamin solac the chiefs i mean okay i it'd be fun to pick another team wouldn't it but i'm not going to

like it's it's my homes until something breaks and at this point i don't think anything's anything's broken there with uh with how kansas city runs it all right so solax got a chief's cowboy super Bowl, I've got the Bengals going into Boroughhead and saying, we still own this place. This is our year. Bengals go into Arrowhead for the second time in three seasons, beat the Chiefs in a classic, and the Bengals get to the Super Bowl to face. How am I the guy who's high on the Bengals defense on this podcast? You got the Bengals winning the AFC.

That's a one-off. I just have it for the big body work might not be pretty. They're one of those defenses. But give me them in a playoff game in a big spot, and they can do it. That's how I view the Bengals defense. All right. Chiefs Cowboys, who does Benny Souls have as his Super Bowl champion? I have the Chiefs.

I think that the Chiefs proved last season that they can go young. They can go cheap, and they can win because Mahomes is very good. And now they run back mostly the same group. Chris Jones, as long as, once Chris Jones in a Chief's uniform, I'm very confident they're the best team in the league. even without him in the chiefs uniform, I'm still pretty confident. But when we talk postseason stuff, you need to have those star players. And Chris Jones is that star defensively.

Yeah, I have the, like I said, I have the Cowboys coming out of the NFC. This could be Chiefs Eagles. I would take Chiefs. This could be Chiefs. I would take Chiefs. This could be Chiefs. I pretty much anybody. I think that Kansas City is going to,

Mahomes and Kansas City is going to start to establish themselves as sitting on the league a little bit similar to how Brady and Belichick were sitting on the league. And in order to do so, you kind of got to do the back-to-back Super Bowl thing. And I think this is the year for them. So this is, I was going to say, the last time we had a repeat champ 2004-2005. So this is kind of your version of that where it's like, no, no, no, this is now the Patriots after that. Let's see, they did go a while there before they won another one. But yeah, that's the last time we had a back-to-back champ, 2004, 2004, 2005.

I have the Cincinnati Bengals being the Philadelphia Eagles in the Super Bowl. I think this is the Bengals here. They've got all the young bucks under contract. I see all the pieces in place offensively. Like we just mentioned, defensively, I think they will be able to be creative enough and good enough with people knowing the scheme and the young players growing into their roles where they'll be good enough in the playoffs to win. I think Burrow will get his first Lombardi trophy.

I think this Allen Burrough Mahomes thing will continue for years to come and we'll be loving every minute of it. But I think this is Joe Burroughs here, the Bengals here. They are my Super Bowl camp. Do you know the last time we had back-to-back Super Bowl appearance, Super Bowl loss team as the Eagles in the U.S? Yeah, once in the last 20 years, a team has gotten back that lost the previous year. So I don't feel great about that with the Eagles.

I just couldn't find another team that I liked enough. Pick them. I'm probably wrong about that. For perspective, it was the 90s bills. Who lost four in a row? That's the last time a team has made it and then lost in consecutive years. Emotionally speaking, I am not into your projection there, Tiger. Jim Kelly, Jalen Hurts, Nick Sirrani-Siriani Marv Levy. I don't know that that's a comparison that anyone with this show would ever draw.

But who knows? Maybe we'll be making that comparison come February. we're on the record. This will all be wrong, but who cares? It was a lot of fun. Thanks to everybody for listening. We appreciate it. Thanks to Cliff Augustine for producing. Thanks to Ben Solac. Additional production supervision by Connor Nevins and Arjuna, Ram Gopal. Everyone have a good Labor Day weekend. We're going to come back with extra point taken on Tuesday of next week for you, where we will go to have a fun show where we do some kind of non-traditional predictions. You know what teams we think are going to win, but then we're just going to come up with complete nonsense and say,

hey, here's something weird that we feel confident is going to happen this season. So I'm looking for. Come back player of the air, Po. Masking's Masked for the Ravens. There you go. All right, thanks to everyone for listening. Have a great weekend. We'll talk to you soon on extra pointe. Must be 21 plus and present in select states. Fandul is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC. Gambling problem. Call 1-800 gambler or visit fandul.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa,

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