The Ringer NFL Show - Predicting the MVP, the Coach of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, and More 2021 Season Awards

Episode Date: September 3, 2021

Kevin and Nora are joined by Steven Ruiz to predict some 2021 NFL season awards such as MVP, coach of the year, offensive and defensive rookie of the year, and more (20:46). Hosts: Kevin Clark and Nora Princiotti Guest: Steven Ruiz Production Assistant: Isaiah Blakely Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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It is The Ringer NFL show, part of the Ringer podcast Network. I am Kevin Carr, too and today by Noel Prince. I didn't know what's going on. Just hanging out, Kevin. I never know what to say because it's always like we're doing a podcast. You didn't have to clarify that you didn't know what to say. But it's just like you're always like what's going on.

And the answer to that is I'm sitting in front of my computer doing a podcast with you. I feel like it's more of a big picture question. I'm swell. Okay. Did not get flooded, which I'm very grateful for because there was a lot of rain here last night. Great drainage up on the Upper East Side. Okay here in Brooklyn as well, there were parts of Brooklyn that really got it. We thankfully did not.

Stephen Ruiz doesn't even know what we're talking about because he's at the Navy Yards of Washington, D.C. What's going on, buddy? I'm not doing well. Cam Newton News. It broke me. I didn't know where you were going to go with that. Honestly, this is the type of honesty that people need at the beginning of a podcast because I'm like, I would feel compelled to be like, oh, yeah, everything's fine if I were having a totally crap day.

But Stephen Ruiz is just bringing that brutal honesty being like, what's up? Everything sucks. That's what's up. I'm like you. Like, I hate when I get that question. I never know how to answer it. But I had an honest answer today. So I went with it.

This is why you asked the question. Just to get honesty. All right. Let's get to the point of the show. The first thing we're going to do is news. Second thing we're going to do is Big Picture Awards. predictions, all that stuff, just for individuals. We have a second part coming up at the beginning of next week with Ben Solac where we'll go

through the team by team predictions, divisions, playoff teams, Super Bowl champions, that kind of thing. So this is the individual prediction show. Next week is the team prediction show. And we'll start with the news. The big news. Out of nowhere, Cam Newton not only lost the quarterback competition in New England, he doesn't have a job anymore. Stephen Ruiz as a Cam Newton stand.

And we've all been Cam Newton stands at different points in our lives, but you've done it thoroughly and for the longest time. You thought what when this happened? I was very confused. But the more I thought about it, the more it made sense. Like you can't have Cam Newton. And I know many people have made this point.

You can't have Cam Newton as a backup quarterback in that locker room with Mac Jones. Because I think it does kind of undermine him being the most important player on the team. And that's what he is now. once you name your first round quarterback to start or that's what happens i don't know if you can especially with his personality compared to max personality like mac is just kind of like a cool laid-back guy and cam is anything but that so it makes sense like even though cam looked good in the preseason and he wasn't that expensive even as backups go i i just don't think belichick could have gone into the season with cam newton hanging around the locker room all right so when we talked about

for months, Nora, the idea that we've never seen Bill Belichick in this situation. We've never seen them desperate in a quarterback competition to figure things out. And I kind of think that the people who are like, oh, I know exactly how Bill Belichick's going to act in the situation. Those people were wrong because they've never seen this for Bill Belichick and a head coach. He came in with Drew Blasso. Drew Blasso gets replaced by Tom Brady when he gets injured and we're off to the races, right? So I don't think that this was a shock in as much as that I was ready for.

for anything. Your take on the Patriots quarterback competition, how Belichick handled it was what, Nora. Well, so I think the big picture thing to understand, it was a competition, right? I think there were some, and this is to a degree Bill's fault because he doesn't give information and in the absence of information, people just come up with theories that sort of fill in the blanks. There was an idea that because he said that Cam was going to be the starter, although there were sort of caveats. with that that got brushed aside. He said that on draft night and then again at the start of the preseason or started training camp, I think there was this idea that like no, Bill Belichick, he believes in, you know,

rookies waiting their turn, coaching people up, Cam's going to be the guy, Mack's going to have to, you know, wait and see. That wasn't true. They took extreme pains to get both Cam and Mac a pretty even number of reps throughout the preseason and throughout training camp. and in their joint practices. And Mack just won. Mac just did better.

And Cam did pretty well, by the way. Like, Cam, I mean, had rave reviews there in terms of he knows the offense better. He's more efficient. His arm looks better. But Mack had a really, really, really good preseason. And I think you take that with a grain of salt because Mack Jones is the type of quarterback who's just going to, you know, clean up against bad defenses. I think the question is, does he have the sort of superlative playmaking ability when

the degree of difficulty is a little bit higher. I mean, we're not going to see that until the regular season, potentially beyond. But they had a good old fashioned genuine quarterback competition and Mac won. And yeah, then, you know, the part that we don't know is whether the decision to release Cam outright instead of keeping him as the backup, because, you know, let's not get this twisted. He was really cheap and he's a much better quarterback than Brian Hoyer. So to a degree, it's like, you sure you don't want that just in case? But we don't know if that was the product of a conversation with Cam where he would have preferred to go out there and see if he can catch on somewhere.

I think that's going to be tough, at least in the short term, but maybe there's an injury. Who knows? And then to your point, the other possibility is that it's just easier, particularly with someone who has such a magnetic personality to have a clean break and to just turn it over to Mac and see what happens. So I subscribe to the Chris Long theory that this was in part of favor to Cam Newton and just don't have him. I don't think Mack Jones, the type of quarterback, is going to lose the job mid-season. And I also think that, let's back up here.

So I thought last year, Cam Newton was an amazing signing. And I was loud about that. And I staked a lot to that. And for the most part, I was wrong. Looked great for two weeks. Things got off track, never got back on track.

And I guess having him as a backup makes sense. And that's what I would do from a value standpoint if he wasn't there last year. but I'm with you, the kind of, a quarterback competition never really ends once it starts,

right? Like, it's always kind of in the back of everybody's mind. And I'm curious, Stephen, as someone who's a Cam Newtonologist, how much does Cam have left?

And he's an upgrade for how many teams in the NFL right now at starting quarterback. I mean, it's hard to answer just because we're basing it off of the three preseason games. Yeah. We saw in August. He said that it's the first time he's been healthy since 2016. And I mean,

if you watch his film. So I just want to say this. I've heard that a lot from Canada. Yeah. Like I've heard like, oh, I'm finally back on track from Cam Newton to the point that I just, I'm getting a little worried that it's actually never going to be true again. I think he looks it more now though. Like his arm looked better. The interception he threw, the last throw he made for the Patriots was that was the type of Cam Newton throw we saw in like 2016, 2015, before he had the shoulder thing. He heard his shoulder late in 2016. I think he didn't have surgery on it until 2018. So I mean, the medical. historical history at least backs up what he's saying. And then the tape from preseason backs up the fact that he is healthy. I mean, it looks like he's healthy at least right now.

And I think he's still a good runner. He's never been a scrambler. I think that's a misconception about Cam Noon. Like he never leaves the pocket unless he absolutely has to. All his running production comes on design runs. And even last year, he was still very good at it. I think he finished second in design run yards among quarterbacks. Lamar Jackson was the only one that had more.

So I still think he has that. And if he is healthy as a passer, I think he can add something to a couple teams that have playoff rosters but don't have the quarterback position nailed down like the Broncos for instance, maybe the Colts, maybe Washington. Yeah, I just, it is, it is a bit unknowable. He made some good throws in the preseason. And I think that I think there's a lot of teams. I'm having a hard time figuring out what team makes the most sense because I also don't

want Kim Newton to go into Houston and just have a terrible time. and things get worse things out of the league, right? He's got to pick his spot. It's not just about a team picking Cam Newton. Cam Newton's got to pick his spot well because this could be the last chance to to loon for him, but he picks wrong. Honestly, I think he's best served just sitting out this season. Unless like an obvious opportunity comes along.

Like, let's say Carson Wentz goes down for the season and the Colts have a spot on their roster. I feel like that makes sense. But like you said, Houston. Friday, Friday, Ring around NFL show? I'd love him on it. It is on the table. It is on the table.

table, Cam. We're going to get to that schedule here in a little bit, but that's... I would give up my open off. I'd give up my spot for Cam Newton. But, uh, yeah, I would wait till next off season, honestly. Stephen, we want you. We want you and Cam. We like the chemistry there. Oh, both. Yeah. Dream team.

Dream team. Um, all right. Steven, anything else? On Cam? No, I don't think I have anything else. Yeah, okay. I don't want to talk about Cam Newton anymore. Like, I'm tired of talking about Cam Newton. It just makes me sad. Here's the other thing. And this is, the thing that's sort of tough to figure out, you know, what's going to happen. Look, no matter what these teams are saying, and they have to say it because it's the protocol, it's really an

unvaccinated starting quarterback who's not already on your team, that is a tough, tough thing for any general manager to be like, yeah, hands on the table, like, we're going to, we're going to go do this. I asked a GM about this a couple of weeks ago. And I said, said, tell me what your policy is in unvaccinated players. Okay. And this was, this was on background. I'm not going to say who the gym was. And he said, it is not impossible to sign an unvaccinated player.

But the difference has to be massive if we had the choice. I mean massive. There's no, any agent that you talk to will say that when they get calls from teams right now. First question. The first question about a player is what's his vaccination status. Like, there's no, I'm sure there would be like weird labor. stuff if the NFL just came out and said this is influencing guys' job status and they have the policy. So all the coaches have to say that it doesn't matter. There's absolutely no rational

way to look at what's happening and think that it doesn't matter because it is a massive availability concern, not just for the players themselves, but to a degree. Now, it's easier to come back if you are vaccinated because the protocols are so different. But you're talking about introducing someone into your quarterback's room. So if something happens with them, their close contact. If Cam is not a starter somewhere, but something happens, the close contact's going to include the starting quarterback.

There's almost no way around that, unless you're going to go full Josh McCown and just have him be a remote backup somewhere. Like, there's just no way around it. So I think this conversation is interesting, but it's a little bit moot because I don't think he's getting signed until there's an injury somewhere. It'd be funny now if the Jaguar has signed them

just to get the NFLPA off their back. That would be a good move. You don't, you, you, you don't want a quarterback who players gravitate to. Yeah. You don't want him to be unvaccinated. Oh. Wow. That was a social distancing joke.

Magnetic personality takes out a new meeting. By the way, I love that the Jaguars are just currently the, the team where it's like, any hypothetical weird stuff. It's kind of like, oh, Jacksonville might do this. Houston's like that with anybody who's good. It's like, oh, he's a fit in Houston. Well, no shit. Hey, I have one more nugget that I need to, I don't have any place to put.

So I'm just going to put it right here. I was told over the summer that Cam Newton uses that font in personal communication. Oh, my God. No. So if you don't know, Cam Newton does this weird wingdings type font on all the social media posts. It's almost impossible to decipher. And I have been informed that when he sends text messages, at least to the people that I have communicated with, that that is that that is included.

That is included. So when he had his, when he had his testing mishap. Now, I don't know if it could have been the, maybe he's got a work phone. Does he have a work phone where he sends non-wingding's type of messages? I'm just wondering if there was a situation in which Cam Newton needed to like text Bill Belichick or somebody in personnel say like,

I'm a close contact. Hey, I'm going to be out for five days. Maybe if we put vaccination information in that font, he would get vaccinated. Wow. We just solved it. Look at us. All right. Well, quickly go through this, then we'll get to the MVP type predictions.

Kyle Shanahan says he, quote, does not need to name a starter. I kind of like this. What if he just rolls with it and never acknowledges who the starting quarterback is for the next four months? I don't think Bruce Ariens named a starter for the playoffs last year ever. Tom Brady? I don't think he ever came out and set it. They just showed up. And they said,

Tom Brady's going to do you start? No, no, no. No, it's not the playoffs. I don't think before the season. Right. I don't think he ever came out and named a starter. There you go.

Do you think Blaine Gabbard was disappointed every week when he didn't get to go out with the starting? He didn't get the call. There's still hope until he names the starter. There's still hope. I was a backup goalkeeper on my soccer team in seventh grade. And I was always perpetually disappointed. I didn't get the start.

I remember that pretty vividly. Soccer is by far my worst sport. So, but I was a sport. what I liked the most. It was a really tough scene, is what I'm saying. By the way, I started another sports. You were like, were you like Charlie Brown trying to kick the football every week? I was not unlike Charlie Brown.

I was not unlike Charlie Brown. I would like that as just, just, I would like, Kair on that quote. I was not like unlike Charlie Brown, Kevin Clark. I'm going to say something. And when I say it, I can't unsay it for the rest of this podcast. When I was in seventh grade, our school, which was a small Catholic school in Orlando had a, we all were in the school play.

And I was Charlie Brown and you're a good man, Charlie Brown. Oh, did you have like a bald cap? No, no. I mean, I just had blonde hair that was combed to the side. And then I had the whole Charlie Brown outfit. And I sang and I danced and I did the whole deal. Is there video of this anywhere? Is there photo or video evidence?

I don't know. I don't know. I mean, so it was one of those things where like everybody in the school had a role. I just happened to be the alpha, you know? At Kevin's mom. Can we get in touch? Was Linus the dirty kid? Who was the dirty kid?

I don't remember. I think yes. I think that's right. Yeah. So pig pen is the dirty. Oh, pig pen. Oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh. Yeah.

Nominative determinism, as we call it. Can I just acknowledge one thing? Yeah. I think Kyle Shanhan also refused to name a punt returner. Yes. That's his big thing now. He's just not going to name starters. I'm not going to do it.

Brandon Ayuk, maybe. Handicapped the quarterback race right now in San Francisco. what you see. Obviously, Trey Lance has the finger injury, puts him out for a week, but obviously that's not within the time frame of the first game. Where do you see things right now? I think Jimmy has to start just based on watching Trey Lance in preseason. Like, he's not ready.

He's ready for his five or six plays a game where he comes in and runs some option play. But I do think by November, Kyle's going to start thinking about it and that temptation to play Lance and do all this cool stuff that we've seen him do already in preseason. I think that's going to take over. And I think you start him by like to say, And if he's up to speed by the playoffs, I think that changes the 49er ceiling from like playoff team, solid playoff contender to oh, maybe they can go on a run because nobody knows how to defend this stuff. So there's been some chatter recently, Nora, that media members are starting to kind of read the tea leaves on Kyle Shan and his press conferences and think that he might, he might want Trey Lance to have won the starting job, but he didn't.

Where do you fall on this? I think that makes sense. I mean, I think he would love, like, look, Kyle Shanahan, everything that we know about him, he wants to have fun out there, right? He wants to be able to like scheme some step up. I'm going to use a technical term here. That running game last season was already bananas. How extra bananas would it be if they had a guy like Trey Lance back there as well? So I think there are some, there are some sort of floor raising elements if Trey Lance is just sort of feasible back there.

it did seem like seeing his preseason, he's still just the processing needs some time and he might be a little bit of a liability in terms of feeling like he's got a good handle on what's going on on a play to play basis. If I were Kyle Shanhan, I would have wanted him to win that job too. It would make a lot of things a lot more clear

and a little bit more clean cut and easier. But if he didn't, I do think that they're doing and the platoon stuff that they've talked about there, like it seems like they're trying to win. you know, more than, which sounds obvious, but sometimes it's like, okay, we should do the best thing for the rookie's development.

Well, I don't know that that's that. But it does seem like what his goal is, is do the thing that's going to win the most games, which if you're a roster that good, probably a smart idea. Do either of you think that the, if Jimmy Grappolo starts in September, let's say, let's say,

we only know for certainty starting in the first four games. Does either of you change your opinion on the ceiling of the 49ers? Are they, were they in the Super Bowl conversation? Now they're not. And does it have to be Trey Lance for January if they have expectations for you guys, Stephen? Yeah, I think Trey Lance has to be the quarterback if they're going to compete for a Super Bowl.

I think they can make the playoffs, even with Jimmy. The thing that people, I feel like, are discounting is that Trey Lance hasn't played football full time since he was 19 years old. Like, that's the last time we saw him. He was a 19 year old. So his next time starting is going to be in the NFL. I think that's hard. And it's going to take a little more than one off season for him to get up to speed.

Nora. Counter argument. The 49ers can make a Super Bowl with Jimmy Garoppolo because they already have. That's exactly right. They just did. Last time Jimmy Garoppel was healthy. The defense, I don't think the defense is going to be as good as that defense was.

I agree. That's my argument. And Robert Sal is gone. We don't know what Domech O'Reilly's going to do. It's the first time he's ever coordinated a defense at any level. So I think the skepticism about that defense is warranted. And that's what's holding me back from saying that they're going to be able to to do what they did in 2019.

That's fair. Because I think that secondary in particular was probably in a better spot. However, and I think that their ceiling will be higher if Trey Lance is playing in December and January by virtue of the fact that if he's playing, then he's ready to play. And he's better than Jimmy or Jimmy gets hurt, which I guess that would be the worst case scenario. Or like Jimmy gets hurt and Trey's not ready. However, I still think we're losing sight of the fact that the 49ers already have made a Super Bowl. with Jimmy Groplo.

That's correct. We've written that out of history. Anything on Carson Wentz, COVID list and the Colts situation, Ryan Kelly also put on the COVID list. Chris Ballard basically said there's not much more they can do. This is a mess, Nora. Yeah, that's all I got. Your original question was anything more on this? Absolutely not.

No. I'm, I know. Got any quips? No quips. I've done enough Carson Wentz bashing. None of us want to talk about. And also, there's just enough to bash on the field. We don't even need to pile on off the field.

I've done with the Colts. I'm over the Colts already. They're on their no fly list. You're not talking about them for a while? We've done that with the Titans on this podcast in years past. Not last year, but in the past, we've said, we're just going to skip over the Titan. We're going to put them in topic timeout for three weeks. It's always an AFC South team.

Like one AFC South team, you don't have to pay attention to. That's correct. All right. Let's get to the awards. Why don't we do a thing where we go from least important to most. important that way we were not ending the show on the drama around defensive rookie of the year uh let's start with offensive rookie of the year stephen rways i'm going with trevor lawrence i know i i get all the worries about the jaguars i have those same worries but i just

think he's the best of the quarterbacks and we think a quarterback's going to win it right i don't i can't think of anybody else maybe naji harris might win it sure i don't think any of the receivers are going to be i mean jemar chase can't even catch a pass uh devante smiths ways less than me. Jalen Waddle? Yeah, I think he's going to have a big year. I actually like the Dolphins, but no,

I'm going to go with Trevor Lawrence just because I think people are going to be able to recognize his talent, and he's going to do just enough to win that award. Whereas I think Mack Jones, who I would place as the second favorite, just because of that infrastructure

he has to work with, I think it's going to, there's going to be a slow start. I think it's going to take him some time, because he won in college because of his mind. He was the smartest player on the field at all times. It's not going to happen.

He's going to be like one of the dumbest players on the field compared to NFL players that have been on teams for five years. So yeah, I'm going to go with Trevor Lawrence. Okay. So here's my question. So much of this and rookie success infrastructure help me just make the case to me of what the Jaguars have around Lawrence, both coaching and talent-wise, that I'm not thinking about. Is there anything, or is this just a pure Trevor Lawrence talent prediction? It's mostly

Trevor Lawrence is talented, but I do think they have good pieces in the receiving core. I like James Robinson, the running back. And I still have faith in Urban Meyer. Like, I know it's gotten off to a rocky start, but Urban Meyer is a smart coach, and he knows how to design a efficient offense. And I think he has two coordinators that are probably underrated just because they've been meaned by Seahawks Twitter for the last five years, five, ten years. But I think they're still competent. So I think there's enough around it. It's weird.

Schadenheimer is in a different bucket, but with Beville in particular. And this is also something about Seahawks fans with Pete Carroll, too, where all you'll hear is 100% negative chatter and people just be like, oh, my God, Bevel. And then you'll talk to him and you'll be like, so you don't like Bevel. No, no, no, no, we love Bevel. No, I like him. What just happened? What just happened?

Like what's going on with the Seahawks fan base where it's just 100% negativity and like, oh, no, no, no, no, he's a good, he's a good coordinator. We love that. No, you should have cut that sentence off at what's going on with the Seahawks fan base and then don't think about the answer. We know a few Seahawks fans. Kevin, can I ask you to specifically define what bucket Brian Schontenheimer is in? He's bad at being a coordinator is the bucket. And then I would also say, as an extension of that, he can be a good quarterbacks coach, you know? I'm in favor of, like, Bill Callahan was one of the worst coaches in history at the pro level and the college level.

He was not good at, there's a reason Nebraska took a massive dip in college and there's a reason the Raiders took a massive dip in the NFL. And yet, he is one of the best coaches in his role of the past 30 years, which is offensive line. Coaches can find their level. And so if Brian Schottonheimer was a quarterback coach for the rest of his life, that's, I love that. form, as you would say, Nora. Offens of Rookie, the year, Nora Prunciatti. I'm going Mac Jones. Patriots quarterback Mac Jones.

Yeah. There's going to be some, I'm going to get accused of Patriots homerism by the end of this podcast. I'm sorry. It's just going to happen. But here's the thing. Their roster was terrible last year. And I'm with you, Stephen.

I mean, I don't think that Mack Jones is going to have this, like, seamless, incredible transition. But I think one thing that's sort of, I think Josh, McDaniels is getting a little bit underrated. And the reason I say that is because I think there's this idea that like the Patriot system is so complicated. They have so much of their players. That's why rookies don't start there.

The most informative thing that anybody said in the day and the day after Cam was released and Mac was made the starter, Belichick was entirely unhelpful in explaining anything that had to do with the decision making. But one thing Josh McDaniels said that I thought was really important is he just came out and explained, you know, we don't start the season using all of the playbook. First of all, they never, that, that proverbial playbook in terms of all of the things that they know how to do and have done over the years is so big. They don't use it all in a given year.

But when they start in September, it is always paired down there. They start with fundamental things that they think everybody does really well. And then they build on that. And they're going to do that for Mac too. So I think because of the upgrades that they've made at the offensive skill positions, because of how good that defense is, I think it's actually flying below the radar a little bit, how good of a situation he's in.

And that works two ways, right? Like his statistical output, what we see from him is going to look better. And then these are also narrative awards. So there's going to be this thing where it's like, oh my gosh, the Patriots are so much better. Mack Jones,

he's the future. Yes, yes. Maybe awesome is overstating it, but they look good. They're winning double digit games. And there's going to be a ton of attention on that. So the Jaguars are also a mess. So do I think Trevor Lawrence is a better quarterback than Mack Jones?

Absolutely. But I think the situation is really going to come to the four in terms of how we look at these guys at the end of the year. If the paths make the playoffs, I think Mac Jones probably wins the award. And their defense is going to be so much better. Like it's probably going to be a top five defense after being a bottom five defense last year. So I agree. I don't even think Mac has to play all that well to even get the narrative. narrative thing coming for.

Can I do a dark horse? Kyle Pitts. No, that makes sense. That makes sense. Also, one of the things about Pitts. So Matt Ryan was on Sunday yesterday and I asked him what his let's just hype up Pitts.

That's what I said. I said, let's just stoke the fires of hype and let's hype up Pitts. And he said, the most impressive thing that Pitts has done is not some crazy catch. It's just, it's like, it's all boring. It's all been boring.

It's all processed stuff. And I know that for a slow news day question, like, that's not the greatest answer. But like it actually is encouraging for an NFL career. Is it like he, he's not doing crazy things, you know, every day in practice or whatever. He's just, there's just a grind that he's in the middle of. And I thought that was an interesting point. I'd also say that with the Falcons in particular, no one's going to watch those games. And so if Kyle Pitts has tons of numbers, people are just going to be like, oh, yeah, that tracks.

We'll just give him the award. I think the Patriots are going to make the playoffs, Stephen Ruiz. I think that their roster is pretty good. Again, I don't think they're as good as the bills. And I don't necessarily think on balance their offseason was all that good from a decision-making standpoint. But they're going to be a lot better and they still have the best coach of all time. I think Mac Jones comes in, wins the award. I don't, as with you, Nora, I don't think he's the best rookie quarterback, nor do I think.

I actually kind of think that they were drafted in the right order. Like if you were just to look at them. And I think maybe Lance ends up having a better career than Wilson because of the situation. But I think in a vacuum that was probably right. But Mac Jones, we know he's going to be the start of week one, which is not true of the other guys except for Lawrence. And if we're just handicapping this award, I'm going with Mac Jones. All right, defensive rookie of the year, Nora Princeati.

I'm going with Patrick Sertan. And I think the favorite right now is Micah Parsons. There's a lot of logic to that as well. looked incredible in training camp in the preseason. But I think Sir Tan has two. And I just think that there's a bad defense in Denver is going to be really, really good. They're going to be playing a lot of high flying offenses.

There's going to be opportunities to make big plays. I don't think he's going to right off the bat be in the type of situation where teams just automatically stay away from him because that's one of the things is, you know, you might test a rookie corner, see if you can get some stuff going. So I think he has an opportunity to produce a really good. sort of highlight real situation. And I think they're going to be, even if the team isn't incredible, they're going to be in some spots where people are watching them play.

They have some primetime spots and could have some big numbers in terms of big plays, interceptions, past breakups that I think could end up getting it for him. So there's a couple of things to unpack what defensive player, rookie of the year, excuse me. Number one is the team is usually good. Number two is that it's usually a defensive alignment. If it's not a defensive lineman, it's a cornerback on a good team. Marshawn Latimore, Marcus Peters. Not a lot of cornerbacks, actually, in the grand scheme of things.

It looks like there may have been, I don't want to get this wrong. It looks like there was a Charles Woodson to Marcus Peters drought. And yes, there was. And so I think that they would have to be pretty good for that to happen. I think he can definitely be the best rookie this year. But as awards go, I don't know if that's necessarily. necessarily going to have i don't think you might might not pop nationally stephen were you going with this yeah i agree with you i think it's just hard for a cornerback just because they're not on

the screen when we're watching the games and unless you're like grinding tape i don't think you're going to be able to appreciate it certan's rookie year unless he gets interceptions but like norah said he might get interceptions because you do test a rookie but i'm going to go with uh oda fe away from the ravens i think the edge rusher yeah i think he's going to i don't think he's going to be the best rookie like talent wise, but I think he's in the best situation where he plays on a defense where they're just going to blitz the hell out of teams. And he's going to get opportunities to go up against a running back or a tight end and pass protection. He's going to get like 10 sacks because that's what the Ravens do. They just cycle out these edge rushers. Bring in another guy, he gets

nine and a half sacks and they cycle out and cycle him out again. So I think if he gets 10 sacks and the Ravens make the playoffs, like that's a easy pick. All right. I'm going to Michael Parsons here. I think that this is, again, part of the narrative stuff where the Cowboys defense will just be better this year because they don't have one of the worst coordinators in modern history. And they have Dan Quinn, who's going to be fine. And if Micah Parsons gives us any numbers at all, like any stats whatsoever, people are just going to ascribe that to Michael Parsons. And then we go. And we're off to the races. So I think he's good, A, but B, I just feel like he's set up for to be, you know, like week 11 and extraordinary.

going. This Micah Parsons, man, he's made a real, real difference on this defense. And I was talking to Dan Quinn last week. And he was talking about all the things he can do and we can put on his plate as a rookie. And I just feel like that's coming is my take. You remember when Tony Dungey gave Bobby Wagner an MVP boat because the Seahawks defense was bad for like the three weeks he missed? Yeah.

It's kind of like that. I started some Earl Thomas MVP Bose a couple years ago when he left in the game against the Packers and they forgot to play football for a number of weeks. Okay. So I'm going to Michael Parsons. Defensive player of the year, Norfolkans God. So I have a new rule about defensive player of the year, which is that I'm going to pick Miles Garrett every year, which is what I've been doing for three years.

Yes. Okay. Yes. Until it happens, I am, until it happens or it loses its logical foundation, I am picking Miles Garrett every year because he should win one. I did not know what you're going to say, but that is my new rule. I arrived at it independently, and I'm so happy that this happened. Lay out to Miles Garrett case.

All right. So first of all, the Miles Garrett case is the same as it's always been. Miles Garrett is incredibly good at his job. That's correct. The other thing is that, look, I think there's a little bit of Aaron Donald defensive player of the year fatigue. Like, Aaron Donald is the best defensive player in football and he's probably going to be, but that's boring. But that's boring.

and we as football media get bored easily, so I don't think that he's going to win it. Look, if Miles Garrett just stays healthy, doesn't get in any fights, and just is Miles Garrett, and then all of a sudden is opposite cloudy, they have a great secondary that's going to cover, so he's going to have opportunities.

Like, he does put up defensive player of the year numbers. It's just that because of outside circumstances, he hasn't had a chance to do it, and some of those outside circumstances include his own involvement, but he hasn't had a chance. a chance to just do it for a full season.

I think with how good I expect that defense to be, if he does it for a full season, like, come on, what are we waiting for? Wow. I'm in agreement. Stephen, Aaron Donald, Miles Garrett, somebody else? Somebody else. I didn't pick Aaron Donald.

But I want to put it out there that we are all dumb for not picking Aaron Donald. Like, he's probably going to win it. Aaron Donald is winning the award for, like, in a vacuum best defensive player in the NFL, which is not a thing. A bunch of board sports writers, vote. We, none of us have a vote. And so it doesn't matter. But like it's most of

people are just like, yeah, it'd be cool to give it to Miles Garrett. That, that's, if it's close, it will go to the guy who hasn't won before. Anyway, you have the floor, Stephen. I'm picking Derwin James. And I'm picked. Yeah, I'm going with the safety. This is a terror. I know it's a terrible pick already. No, no, no. I think it's a terrible pick. No, she, and you're in, like, it's an interesting pick. And that's why I picked it. But it's, it's not going to happen. But the reason why I picked it is he is playing, I think he's going to play a hybrid role between what John Johnson played for the Rams last year and what Jalen Ramsey did when Jalen Ramsey played in the slot. I think Brandon Staley's going to use him a lot and put him in position to make plays. He's probably going to play a little bit of linebacker.

I think he's probably going to get 100 tackles, maybe like four sacks and then five interceptions. If he does that, I think he'll win the award. And plus there's the narrative because he hasn't played football in like two years. and everyone wants to see him play well, so that will help. He's also my comeback player of the year pick. I don't know if we're doing that, but I feel... We are doing that.

I spoiled it. So, again, what you're saying, and I think the availability thing and his dependability is a big red flag when you're predicting this stuff. I don't think it's a bad pick nor in the sense that Steph Gilmore won it two years ago. He was just kind of, he was a shutdown corner, obviously,

but he was the face of a really good defense. And if Brandon Staley improves his, defense. I wouldn't be, I wouldn't be surprised if the face of that defense, whoever it is, it might end up being Joey Bosa, whoever that the face is would be in consideration for this award. So three safeties have won it in the past 20 years. In fact, if you go beyond that, looks like only four safeties in history, five safeties in history, have won it. And two of them were Dick Anderson and Kenny Easley before I was born. The three in the modern era, it was in a six-year period. Ed Reed in 2004, Bob Sanders in 07, Palamalu in 2010. So it's not unheard of.

It would just need to, the charges have to be incredibly relevant that year because all three of those teams, the Ravens, Colts and the Steelers were in a legitimate Super Bowl contention the year that they put this together. I love Darwin James. I think he's going to be, I think the odds of him being an incredibly impactful, important player, very high. You ever look at a safety box score? No, no, that's a good point. But I do think now... What just happened?

They're just, like, deeply boring. Okay. These are media takes just as much as their football takes, right? Like, it's... I feel like the media is getting smarter. Yeah, I feel like there's more stats out there that capture how good a safety is. And I think he's going to play more roles than just a safety. He's going to be a linebacker in that defense.

He's going to be a slot cornerback in that defense. I think he's going to rush the passer. He's, like, one of the best pass rush. He was Jamal Adams before Jamal Adams. So I think he's going to be able to be able to be able to be a lot of that defense. So I think he's going to be able to play all these roles and that will help him win the award, even though I don't believe he's going to win it. I just think it's really hard to win one of these things when you're sort of like a jack of all trades, right?

Because it's much better to just have like 15 sacks, you know? And the other part of that is I do think that having a young quarterback there, if they're really good and really relevant, young quarterback new coach, like there are other people who are going to be sort of sucking the attention in terms of, oh, hey, look, look what They're doing. That's me. That's my thought, too, is that it could be Bosa, could be a staley coach of the year run. I think a lot of times with this, and I remember the University of Miami with Heisman stuff,

it's like media has trouble giving the credit to the right person sometimes, where it's like all of a sudden we're giving a bunch of the Heisman votes to Kenny Dorsey, you know, and then the running backs can't win. That to me, if a team is actually making a legitimate run from worse to first or from mediocre to great, which would be the Chargers case. I think it'd be hard for the media to parse it out in real time. I mean, look at the Legion of Boom. Like, we still have trouble figuring out who was actually the best player on the Legion of Boom,

even though, you know, Seahawks people know that it was Darryl Bevel was the key as we talked about. All right. Let's do comeback player of the year, nor are you having the floor. Jack Prescott. I mean, this one seems sort of easy to me. Like, if he has a good, if he has a good season, I think it's sort of lock. up right like high profile quarterback sure but he a lot of weirdness around dack right now yeah yeah there yeah that's a really good you make a really good point was it a point okay so i i i

want to do dac here but you know he's got the arm soreness whatever you want to call it that comes out and then it's he's going to miss a couple of weeks and then it's we're not going to rush him it's he could play a game if it was a regular season right now. Jerry Jones is calling the Texas Rangers to figure it out because quarterbacks don't necessarily had this arm injury. Baseball players do. If we're predicting, if I was betting this, which I would not put my money on that situation.

I just, I think that Dak Prescott is the best player who has the capability to win this award. But I also am just so nervous about that situation are unraveling very quickly. So I agree and have said a few times on this very show, the vibes are very bad. However, I think the vibes have improved a little bit. Like he's practicing.

Seems like things are going in the right direction. Maybe I sure hope so. Maybe I am Charlie Brown and Dak Prescott's shoulder is the football. But I just still feel like if he's playing a relatively full season, he kind of has it. I don't see anybody else winning it. And I would rather lean towards that than, okay, well, there's a number of other candidates where X, Y, Z, different things have to go right.

Whereas with Dak, it's just like, if he plays, I think he's got it. Stephen. I'm going to go with Cam Newton. No, I'm just kidding. I am an idiot and forgot Dak Prescott exists. I had Derman James, but Dak Prescott's the right pick. Like, Kevin, you're not going to be able to talk me out of it.

I don't care about the vibes. Like, he's the best, he's one of the best quarter in the league. You can't be on the way or NFL show if you don't care about vibes. I am such a huge Jack Prescott fan. I am just leery of these sort of situations where I go, I don't know. Who's your, you think Carson Wentz is better than Jack Prescott, admit it.

Yeah. Carson Wentz, comeback player of the year is not something I'm prepared for. No, I think it's going to be. So I went through the list here. Dak is the best player who's eligible for this award given what happened in the last year. Sequin would be in that mix, but he's still hurt.

And we don't know what his deal is. And he could be out for a month of the season. So we're going to put him in the DAC bucket here where I still have some uncertainty about the comeback part of comeback player of the year, right? Joe Burrow would be great, would be a great story. I think he's got a ways to go. Also don't exactly love the situation. Love his talent.

don't love the situation in Cincinnati right now. Stephen, you've written and talked a lot about that. I think if you're looking for a guy who is going to come in and have the numbers that we expect from him after not playing last year or not playing a full season last year and being eligible for this award, I think the easiest bet and the easiest path to see

is Christian McCaffley. I thought you were going somewhere else with that. I thought you were going to say Joey Bosa, who I think would be my second pick if the 49ers are good and I think they will be good and I think he's going to get Oh Nick Bosa sorry

Nick Bosa. Do people watch Panthers games? No, I'm a Panthers fan and I did not watch one live Panthers game last year so no, the answer is no. So Nick Bosa played in two games last year he had nine Zaks his rookie year. I could see that too. I could see that too. And also it's an early injury

and so presumably he's he's ready to rock. I mean, it was week two. He had the ACL. It's been almost a full year. So I would not be surprised if it was Nick Bosa as well. All right. Coach of the year, no more Prince Yaddy. Do you know what I'm going to pick?

Do you know where I'm going with this? Is it going to be Bill Belichick? Yeah. Sorry, guys. Look, there's been like, nine years when Bill should have won coach of the year. And he didn't because it's just boring. But you know what's not boring is all of a sudden he has this new challenge with a rookie

quarterback and they had a losing record for the first time and forever. And then all of a sudden, they're a playoff team. They're firing on all cylinders. The defense looks great. They've got this monstrous front seven. The rookie's in a good situation. He's developing.

There's hope returned after, you know, a forever drought of one season. And Bill Belichick wins coached the year. Okay. So Belichick's won three times. Come back player of the year, Bill Belichick. Nike the dog. There have been three instances in which Bill Belichick is one coach of the year with the Patriots.

2003, 14 and 2, 2007, 16 and 0, 2010, 14 and 2. And I agree with you. If they go, if they win 11 games this year, there will be some buzz for Bill Belichick. But I do think that there's, he's still going to pay a Bill Belichick tax in the minds of the voters. And there is a little bit of fatigue that sets in eventually. They would have to show me, I think they have to show the media something or show the voter something that is above and beyond just a whole home good Patriots team. See, my allegation is that the presence of a rookie quarterback counteracts the. Bill Belichick tax.

Okay. I like that. I like that theory. Stephen, coach of the year. I'm going to contradict something I said earlier. And I'm going to pick Frank, Frank Wright. I'm going to talk about the Colts. Oh. It's a bad division. I could see them winning the division.

Let's just assume Carson Went stays healthy, which is a big assumption to make. And he plays like he did in 2018. Healthy and available. Those are two separate things. You can stay healthy and miss five days. at a time if you catch my drift. I'm not saying he has to return to 2017 Carson Wentz. I don't think that guy is ever coming back.

But 2018, 2019 Carson Wentz was fine. And I think that's enough to get the Colts to the playoffs in that division. Because I do expect the Titans to take a step back. I know people are high on them. Their defense looks like a mess on paper. They lost their offensive coordinator. I could see the Colts winning that division at like 10 and 7.

And if they do, if you look back at the history of this award, The person who wins it is the guy who won more games than he was, like, compared to the preseason win total. Some, some, like, stats guy tweeted out last year,

and it was every single year. So I think expectations have to be low to win the award. And I think they are with Indy after what happened in the last two weeks. Their schedule is just freaking brutal, though. And particularly at the beginning, it's so, I mean, I think we've gone through this before,

the Seahawks, Rams, Titans, Titans, Texans, 49ers, Titans again, like, people are going to be, even if they are kind of solid in a way that indicates there's a really strong coaching job going on here, people are going to be off the scent for them, I think, because it just seems hard to see them having a smooth start to the year. But somebody has to win that division.

I guess the Titans. Settle in for my take. Oh, no. He's going to pick Dan Campbell. No, I'm not. A team with diminished expectations that still has talent. A coach who I think we're all understanding has been historically underappreciated. And what should be one of his toughest coaching jobs ever.

A Vegas win total set at eight and a half, which is similar, the same as Arizona, the football team in Denver. And he's going to get above it. I'm not saying he's going to make the playoffs. I'm saying they're going to make a playoff run. Mike Tom.

Yeah. That's the best picked out of the third. Norah, who did you think I was going to pick? I thought you were thinking Pete Carroll. Oh, no. The Seahawks win total was 10. It's 10? Yeah.

Oh. The Vikings are predicted to win more games according to Vegas and the Steelers. I don't know what that one. The Saints are as well. Yeah, that's tough. So everybody knows Ben is not good anymore. He only needs to show a little bit. Stephen, why don't you pick Ben for a comeback player of the year?

Because he can't throw the ball more than 20 yards. Well, other than that, though. 20? 20, yeah. Drew Brazen's under the chat. All right. So Ben needs to show us a little bit, but they still have talent. They're just a great program.

I mean, like, just being around there, you kind of get why they're good. They just, I mean, the cheats are like this too, but obviously it's a, different end of the spectrum because they have so much talent right now and they have the quarterback and stuff like that. You just watch these practices and they're just getting shit done and there's no other way to say that. And so many other, so many other places,

it's just like they're wasting energy on things that don't matter. And I just, I love how they run a program and I think they're always going to be better than they should because they're a stable franchise and, and Mike Tomlin's a good coach and they have talent. So I'm going Tomlin here. I don't have high expectations to the Steelers as a, as a team this year,

but I am expecting them to exceed our expectation, which is how you win this award. All right, this is not really an official award. It's given by the sporting news. I'm just going to, we're just giving it out anyway.

Executive of the year, Stephen Ruiz. I'm going with Bill Belichick. Oh, wow. For the same reasons, not a top 10 GM on Nora and I's list a couple of weeks ago. Number one on Danny Kelly's list.

Was Ryan Pace on that list? in that top 10 because he was not because he has won the award that is correct but the narrative about the Patriots rebuilding in the offseason and bill going against type and spending all this money and then drafting a quarterback in the first round and cutting cam newton a week before the season starts if they make the playoffs and i think all of us are picking them to make the playoffs like you give the award to bill he was the most active GM this offseason i would argue and if it leads to a turnaround you kind have to give them the award. I want to go through the grim, the grim history of this award.

So Bean wins it last year, excellent choice. DeCosta wins it the year before. Excellent choice. Before that, Ryan Pace, Howie Roseman, which at the time, awesome choice. I still think Howie was a good GM. Reggie McKenzie, Dave Gettleman, Steve Kime, Ryan Grigson. Do you even want to win this award? I'm assuming Dave Gettleman won it.

In 2015? 15, yeah. He was out of the job. He was out of a job a year and a half later. Yeah, arguably the best GM in the history of the Panthers, which is a sad note about that franchise. Okay, all right, this is my take on this. I don't want to do Panthers history,

but I'm going to give you a take on it. Marty Herney was good at picking the players. In the first round. In the first round. They should have just made him first round scout. First round czar, yeah. Yeah. They kind of did that.

Matt rules first. Yeah, but then they fired. Yeah. They fired him twice so far. Rick Smith also, Rick Smith also a great first rounds are. You get those guys on the same staff, send them away on Thursday night,

just be like you're done at midnight on Thursday and have them come back next year. Friday, that is looking at tape of a bunch of amazing prospects for the next year. That's a market inefficiency. I think we just found it. You know, it's funny, but I think that people don't realize this.

And this is something that we've talked about before, but like it's like anything else. Scouts, GMs, all that stuff, they're good at certain things. So it wouldn't be surprising that a GM is good at identifying top end talent, but not good at finding the B plus grinders. That's not a surprise. I mean, Rick Spielman, who's the GM of the Vikings, he's got this system where he has a database of how well his scouts did on a. given position group because that's just how like some guys look at damn bill bellichick can't scout wide receivers meanwhile Kevin Colbert and Mike Tomlin are awesome at it like some people are just better than others at certain parts of of the thing so I'm not I don't I don't think that should be

much of a surprise I think the problem is when people think that they're good at everything and they're just not and they don't delegate and all that stuff anyway that's that's that's that's either here nor there um so anyway if you won the award you're out of a job within two years and it was really bad Bill Belichick will have a job. Nora, did you pick Bo Belichair? I did not. Because, you know, I just think, look, the guy's capable of a lot, but I think doubling up, coach the year, executive of the year, it's a tough sell.

And a Super Bowl. Right? And a Super Bowl. Triple threat. Triple threat. And we gave him a comeback player of the year. I went with Andrew Barry. Me too.

Which is, oh, that's nice. It's a little bit of a cumulative thing. I think people probably, you know, I think the Browns are going to be really, really good this year, right? And part of figuring out these awards is which teams do you think are going to be good? And then how is the media going to sort of divvy up the credit? And Stefansky won coach of the year. So I don't think it's going to go to him in the form of the award because people get bored

and they don't want to repeat. And I think the general consensus is that that front office is really good and has made a lot of sound decisions to build that team into a contender if they prove themselves. to truly be a contender, I think it's going to go to the front office. So it's kind of simple. So I've spent some time with our guy, Andrew, perhaps hypothetically that story is running at some point in the near future,

let's call it. And I haven't been so impressed with Andrew Barry. And I think he's not just one of the best young executives. He's one of the best executives, period, in football. And there's going to be some recognition of that this year. because this is something that came up when Stefansky was winning coach of the year last year. But like,

it is a miracle that the Browns won a playoff game last year and it didn't feel miraculous. Like it just felt like it was the next step. And that is because of Barry and Stafansky building a program where everything made sense, good coaching, good talent, good GMing, good trades, good value. They go out and they plug these holes,

And as we've talked about, there are so many people who played a part in it. John Dorsey stacked with talent. Sashi Brown drafted some of these guys, but he also built the infrastructure where he's getting the picks. And there are certain guys now, I think Nick Chubb was one of these process-type picks

because they kept trading back. And there were others. But you needed an Andrew Barry to come and look at that roster and say, here's what we got to do. And he did it. and I just I couldn't I couldn't be more impressed with him he was the perfect GM for that team at that time so I'm in on Andrew Barry Ruiz can't even Ruiz is just all in on Belichick how many games do they have to win for him to win the award do they have to win the division because they did they did win a playoff game last year and it's so much of like how you improved over last year yeah I feel like sometimes teams can be these awards can be given a year late almost like a like a like a career achievement award. I think that they would probably have to win.

I don't know they have to win the division if it's an awesome division. Like if it's 2.13 win teams, I wouldn't be surprised. They won 11 games last year. I think that they win 12 or 13. He would win this award. Barring a Belichick 17 and now situation. I don't think that they have to like make the Super Bowl. I mean, obviously, that's also not even the voting timeline.

But I think, I think they will win the division. So that's part of why I think this is that I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, that will happen? I think I do too. Oh, this is exciting. I don't know. I don't know. We have four hours. This is a development for you. We have four hours until the Solac pod. So I don't know. Are we going to get a Brown's Week part two? It sounds like, I don't say anything else. I want you to process for the next four hours, which for our listeners, that's our recording timeline. That pod will be out out next week, I believe.

but I want to just know the development now until then. Yeah, we'll see. I don't know. I don't know. I'm going to be grappling with it for the next four hours. Okay. Kevin is wiping his palm as he thinks about this. Wiping his forehead with his palm.

Because I'm going to be, I know I'm going to be pacing here for the next three hours, just trying to figure it out. I'm going to look at the advanced stats. All right. Let's get to it. Drum roll, please. MVP, Stephen Ruiz.

Well, I guess I'm going against you too because I'm picking Lamar Jackson because I expect the Ravens to win that division and I think the offense is going to bounce back. I know the receiving court is kind of injured right now, but eventually they'll get healthy and they've put the right pieces around him. And Lamar Jackson gets better every year. It's been true going back to his sophomore year at Louisville. As a passer, I mean, the stats didn't really back that up last year. But the regression with the offense wasn't that steep. And in the second half, like the offense was back to where it was 2019 going into the playoffs. So I'm going with Lamar Jackson.

I think he wins his second MVP in three years. And people still question whether they should sign him or not. I think that it's going to be hard for Lamar to do something that exceeds the baseline he's established as like 2019 was amazing. It was one of the most amazing things I've ever seen in the football field. And I think he has the capability to repeat that. But I think it's going to be hard for it to have that kind of momentum. like it did two years ago. And that's why I kind of think the conversation around it will always be a little bit different.

I think you'd have to do incredible special things in order to win the MVP, which is, as we know, is such an narrative award. Nora, your pick. I'm picking a little player by the name of Patrick Mahomes. And, you know, I'm in some ways contradicting myself by doing this because I have on this very podcast expressed not real concerns, but just, I just want to be aware of the kind of top heaviness of the chief skill position players where I worry about what happens to that offense if they lose a hill or a Kelsey. That said, if that does not happen, there's another situation I can see playing out where they have this really interesting mercenary offensive line.

Right? Like they brought in guys. They've got everybody new starting together. It could take some time to gel, but they upgraded their talent level there. And if what happens is, and we know that there's good coaching, strong scheme that I think can support player development there, if by the time they hit their stride and through the regular season and into the postseason, Patrick Mahomes just has more time and is feeling less pressure than he has for most of his football life that we've been conscious of. That could look terrifying. And I think if that happens, he could win this award. Wow.

I agree. I think Mahomes is probably going to win it, but that's boring. Who's a good quarterback? Who's going to have a huge uptick in both visibility, numbers, and relevance this year? And not just because of his talent, but because of the situation around him. In fact, maybe mostly because of the situation around him. what this pick presupposes is that, no, is that there's a guy who's been playing at an MVP caliber level and we've never noticed it.

Ladies and gentlemen, my MVP pick is missing Matthew Stafford. Oh, no. No. Just know, that's it, Stephen? I see the argument. I think Mahomes is going to be the best player. I think Lamar Jackson is going to play better than Matthew Stafford. I'm not trying to pick the best players in football.

I'm trying to pick the MVP. Did you say that he's been playing at an MVP level, though? Yeah. I'm just saying narrative-wise. No, if you took some of Matthew Stafford seasons where he's throwing for 5,000 yards and you put him on a functioning NFL team, you're looking at different outcomes. You're looking at significantly better outcomes. I think you're right in the sense that if Matthew Stafford has like, has a season that is

sort of passable as this could be an MVP caliber season. Maybe it's if you don't look at it too closely, if you sort of ignore some stuff. But the stats line up where it's like, all right, you're not going to laugh this out of the park. I think he will win it because the narrative is absolutely there. The question is, has he really been doing that in the past? And it's also, I know the lions are the lions.

It is not as though he has not had good receivers to throw to. I understand that. He's never, he's never had a, obviously there's nobody like McVeigh, but he's never had an offensive coordinator even approaching McVeigh. He has, it is, it is going to be most, I mean, obviously Calvin Johnson's a different deal, but it's going to be kind of one through 10, probably the best supporting cast he's ever been around. Stephen, you were about to say something. I disagree with the narrative thing.

I think if he does bounce back and have a big year, how much credit does Sean McVe get for that? And I think it takes away from some of his MVP buzz. Well, also the other thing is that I do think that the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, are in a tough spot, right? Because don't you feel like the expectations for them have kind of been set at like, if this team isn't at least within inches of a Super Bowl, then this was all for not, which is not fair or right, but I do feel like that's what's happening. But I think, but I think in the regular season, they might look like that, which is,

I don't even know if they win that. Are they in the favorites to win that division? I think they are. It would be, would be the, uh, the Niners. Yeah, I think the 49ers are. It's different at different books. I looked it up because I wrote about. about the 49ers a couple days ago.

But like some books have the 49ers. Some have, I believe the Rams. I don't know if it's the Seahawks of the Rams. But that's just a tough division. And I think you have to win your division to win MVP. I haven't looked into that, but I'm pretty sure. It's the Rams or it's either, it's either, uh, there are sports books where they are tied the Rams and the Niners and they flip depending on the book.

I mean, I'm just saying it's a very possible outcome that most of them have the same odds. step back. The offense takes a little step forward. It all evens out. The 49ers are really good. The 49ers win that division. The Rams are a wildcard team. You know, maybe they win one playoff game or something. I'm not sure that the reception of that, even, you know, the regular season results of that, because that's what we should be talking about here. I just think it's gotten so much. It was like the splashiest thing that happened this off season. And it got so much attention. The bar feels really, really high for them.

All right. So here are the odds for MVP, the most recent odds. Mahomes, Prescott is number two. That's just a Cowboys thing. That's a health thing because he really would be in the mix. Josh Allen is number three. And there's a clear path that I would see it.

Aaron Rogers is plus 1,200. Strangely, Aaron Rogers, who won it last year, Matthew Stafford, had the same odds. Both of them are better than Lamar. Jackson. Does that surprise you still? No, because there has been so much hype for the Stafford thing. Like everyone just expects it to work out. And like when does, when do offseason narratives actually come true? Especially one like that where it comes with Super Bowl aspirations. Everyone, like, I think Dan Orlovsky said they're the favorites to win the Super Bowl now. There are so much

expectations. I just don't expect them to live up to it. And you have, he doesn't, he has to live up to it. I think he has to exceed those expectations in order to win MVP because there is kind of a narrative about Stafford that he's a stat compiler and not really a winner. I think he will win some games, but I don't think he will win enough. But doesn't that help? Does that help if they win 13 games and he becomes winner guy? Does not help him in this case? I don't think they have to exceed the expectations.

My point is just, I think the expectations are like 13 wins and a conference championship. And I don't think they're going to win 13 games. I think they're going to win like 11. And that's what I'm. I'm saying is I think if they win 11 games, I'm not sure that that feels satisfying in terms of just how big that story was this off season. I'm saying that there are, I don't, I don't think the, I think we're comparing it to the off season necessarily. I'm saying that there's a path here where Matthew Stafford is the sixth or seventh best quarterback by play this year and he wins this award.

because A, the difference between Stafford and golf is going to be massive. They're going to play in big games in prime time. He's going to get easy buckets, which he has not had, because of Sean McVeigh. And I just think that there's a, there's a scenario here in which this is a slam dunk. This is my thought. So are you thinking it's like a 2016 Matt Ryan situation? Kind of, yeah. I don't think anyone thought Matt Ryan was the best quarterback in the league, but he was clearly the MVP.

just because of that production. The only. Falcons didn't think that. Like, it's the thing. Just a thing. He's the only guy. You know,

Adrian Peterson in 2012, I would say it's a little bit similar in the sense that like, I don't think Adrian Peterson was the best player in football year. Maybe he was. It was just that there was, it was kind of a weird year for quarterbacks.

They had Vikings team was pretty good. Everybody else has been, I mean, Cam Newton, 2015 is not, it's probably, is probably the only kind of non. So we started in 2013 after Peterson. So it's been quarterbacks since 2013.

Manning, Rogers, Newton, Ryan, Brady, Mahomes, Jackson, Rogers. Too soon to say on Lamar, Mahomes is almost certainly going to go to the Hall of Fame if he just continues doing whatever for the next decade. And then a bunch of hallfamers, Rogers, Manning, Brady. So it takes a bit of a fluke year, but that could be this. That could be this. I mean, I just, we had the quarterback who won the Super Bowl last year, Tom Brady, is not positioned to win the MVP because he's probably not going to have 17 amazing games.

I got people got all mad at me because I said he was the top five football player because he got added to a team and they won the Super Bowl. Like there's just the conversation around Tom Brady's got even weirder in that regard. So I think it's going to be a weird year for quarterbacks. And I can see this leading the way. Are we discounting Russell Wilson? I feel like his name hasn't come. up. Well, what's the status of

and we should not? He is amazing. I just don't know. Listen, he's gotten Shane Waldron. He's gotten a new office coordinator and all that stuff. I just don't know how much has changed year over year aside from that. You know? He's not in a new situation like Stafford.

He's better than Stafford. Yeah. I think you've talked me into it. Matthew Stafford is going to be. Oh, good. So we're all in agreement. Great. All three. Three for three. Matthew Stafford, MVP. All right, guys. Anything else? we're not going to talk about the MVP I've thought about this so it's going to be like a meme

player on a fringe playoff team it's going to be Ryan Fitzpatrick they have to play wildcard weekend so I think that's a good pick yeah just Washington will probably play you just nailed that like Vegas would take it off the board if it was actually bedable because it's definitely going to be Ryan Fitzpatrick he's going to win even if he doesn't play in the game that's correct he's going to be in the booth

So Monday we have the Solack pod coming out where we do team by team predictions division Super Bowl all of that and then the following week we'll be back next Thursday as well. The following week starts our regular season schedule on Sunday, myself and Nora will be back on Sunday nights featuring Mr. Ben Solac and featuring Mr. Stephen Ruiz, all time all time heat check guys coming in. They're going to be. couple young guns. They're going to be doing different segments with us. It's going to be really cool. Nora and I are really excited about that. Tuesdays during the season.

This starts on 914. We have something special coming for you. We can't announce it just yet. It is Cam Chronicles Part 2 with Stephen, Steve and Ruiz. Nope, no advance planning. It's just him just talking about Cam for an hour a week. No, it's not that we can't announce yet.

We've got some business to take care of, and then it will be announced. Wednesday, I will be. back doing a weekly show. That's going to be really cool. Thursday, Nora Prince Yati and Mallory Rubin. It's going to be really fun. It starts next Thursday. I'm excited about it. I can't. I can't. I'm fired up for it. I can't wait to listen. And on Friday, I don't know what we're calling this. I don't know what we're calling. The prospects, I don't know. We got a bunch of young people, a little, buddy talented young people getting together and chopping

it up. What is the age cut off? It's okay. It seems like I might be 20. I think Ruiz is the oldest one. Really? I'm the oldest one. I'm not,

are they Gen Z? What are you, but? I'm 30. Oh, you're off the show. I'm not even a young. I'm not even a prospect.

You need to, you're off the show. Wow. Tough one. I look younger than I am. Well, you're going to be the grandpa on the Friday show. So Kaelin Jones, Benjamin Solac, and Stephen Ruiz, that starts next Friday.

We'll be back Monday for our second part of our season preview with Solac. This has been the Oregon NFL show and our podcast network. Thank you to our Juno Ramke Pohl and Isaiah Blakely for production help. Bye, guys.