The Ringer NFL Show - Predicting the NFC Division Winners for the 2023 Season | Extra Point Taken

Episode Date: August 28, 2023

Sheil and Ben get together to examine each division in the NFC and to debate which teams they think will make it to the playoffs at the end of the season. NFC East (2:23) NFC North (15:32) NFC South (34:29) NFC West (59:26) They close out the pod by sharing their predictions for who’ll represent the NFC in Super Bowl 58 (1:18:22). The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming, please check out theringer.com/RG to find out more or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Sheil Kapadia and Ben Solak Associate Producer: Chris Sutton Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, it's your boy Johnny Bananas, and I'm going to be covering a brand new season of the Challenge USA on CBS that, of course, I will be completely dominating on my podcast, death taxes and bananas on the Ringer Reality TV podcast. Head over that feed and follow us on Spotify so you never miss an episode. Welcome to Extra Point Taking Shield Capadia here, joined by Ben Solac. It's Breast. prediction week. But this is NFC prediction day. The next episode will be AFC prediction day. Here's what we're doing. We're going division by division. We will each pick our winners.

We will each say if we have a wild card team from that division, we will save anything we want to about the teams that we don't have making the playoffs. And then at the end, we will go through the playoffs and we will each pick an NFC representative for the Super Bowl. Ben, how many of the seven playoff teams do you think we will have the same here? I feel like I start every episode by asking you to predict what you think is going to happen on the episode. Yeah, I know. You're in a big prediction mindset. You're just ready to predict all things.

Predict how the predictions will go. I mean, like, here's the problem. I've seen your power rankings. So I have a general sense for who you think is good and who you think isn't. That could have been to throw you off, by the way. And yeah, it was a red herring. For those who are curious, we have a very exciting, the NFL ranked special bill that's coming out for the Ringer website, where Power Rankings is going to be a collective thing done by staff. There's going to be debates.

The Stevens quarterback rankings live there. She'll your trade value chart live there. It's going to be sick. But we got our first look at everybody on staff's respective power rankings entering the preseason. And let's just say that by a mile the most away from average ranker, Shield Kabatia, ladies and gentlemen. And everyone else's graph, just like one, two, three, four. So a little bit difference here, difference there. Shields got like 9, 17, 23.

It's everywhere, baby, just living. Listen, as I said, like Aaron Rogers, I'm an independent thinker. You're all sheep. And I stand by all my predictions. You've been in the lab, baby. You've been cooking. I'm excited to see it. I don't know about that.

All right, let's start with the NFC East. The NFC, Ben, you start us off. Who is your division champ in the NFC East and why? I have the Eagles winning the division. I have them, they went at 13 to 4. The Cowboys are right behind them at 12 and 5. I did like this little pass-it predictions just to get like a general sense of what records might look like. It was really tight Eagles and Cowboys.

When I think about it, curiousically, and even when I look at the little simulation that I did, I think these teams are really going to be quite evenly matched. There's the big outstanding question for the Cowboys in terms of the change of their offensive play caller, and then obviously the big outstanding question for the Eagles with the change of their offensive and defensive play callers. But talent-wise, Cowboys' defense, ton of talent, Eagles defense, ton of talent, Cowboys' offense, good amount of talent,

and then Eagles' offense, a ton of talent. Only a couple things really have to break the Cowboys way for this to really be like a 50-50 division, kind of as it was last year. Need Tony Pollard to be able to take what was a really productive profile in relief of Ezek of Ezek

and truly become a workhorse back, be able to sustain that over a workhorse carry number of touches. Need Brandon Cooks to hit, which Brandon Cooks is like, you know, say, watch for you. Brandon Cooks. He's pretty comfortably. A guy you can rely on here. So, you know, stay healthy. You expect him to be good.

And then it's, it's DAC and the way he's going to manage the offense, right? Like, they've made no bones about the fact that they're changing the way DAC operates. And they're particularly giving Dak a lot of control up at the line of scrimmage. C.D. Lamb had a quote where he was basically like,

Dax's calling this at the line. Like, it's all what DAC wants to see. They're putting quite a bit on his plate, as Mike McCarthy has wanted to do with his his quarterback, and we've got to see how that works out for them. But I think Dallas can be extremely close to the Eagles. I think the Eagles are a natural little bit of a step back team, but not like a huge step back. And accordingly, I think you're going to see this be a tight division race all the way down. So you've got Eagles winning the division, but obviously you said 12 and 5 for Cowboys,

so you've got Cowboys that's one of your wild card teams. Okay. I've also got the Eagles winning the division. I have it as a tie break. I have them both winning the same number of games, and that's 11. 11 and 6, 11 and 6, to your point, I think they're evenly matched. If the Cowboys would have held on to Kellynne Moore or if they would have moved to a coordinator that I felt pretty comfortable with, I think I would have had them winning the division

just because you go year to year and you say, all right, you know, things are not going to be work out as well for the Eagles in terms of health, in terms of injury luck, in terms of schedule strength, all these things we can look at. but I just, at the end of the day, I looked at it and said, Sheal, are you really going to pick Mike McCarthy and Brian Schottenheimer over the Seagulls team? And I couldn't get there. And listen, the Cowboys, we've said it before.

They're 24 wins. The last two seasons, more wins than any other NFC team. I think more than any other team in the NFL other than the Chiefs. So I don't want to act like Mike McCarthy's there. They're going to be eight and nine. That's not what I'm saying. It's just when you get to the teams that I think can compete for a Super Bowl, by the way, and we can have this discussion at the end.

Again, if we're talking about teams that can win the Super Bowl in the NFC, I think there's three of them with two others, I would say, as deep sleepers. And I think these are two of the three. Like two of the three favorites, I think are in the NFCE. So for the Eagles, I'm just really confident in the offense. I think the offense is going to be awesome again. I think AJ Brown, Devante Smith, J. And Hurts, Dallas got it.

What I like about this offense is these are all ascending players or players in their prime. Like when you look at some of these teams, you say, ah, this guy is 33. this guy's, you know, that's when you start to see the decline. Like, we probably haven't seen the best of those players. I just mentioned you combine that with what should be a very good offensive line right away or this season. And I really like that Eagles offense. I think we've discussed this before. I think the Eagles defense is going to take a bigger step back than you do.

So that probably accounts for the you having 13 wins, me having them with 11 wins here. But, man, Ben, last year, regular season. Jalen Hertz is the starter, 14 and 1. throw in the playoffs in the Super Bowl 16 and 2. I know it's not a QB wins league anymore but that's kind of hard to argue with. And they lost to an unbelievable Chiefs team

and an equally unbelievable Washington commanders, Taylor Heineke, Brian Robinson, three yards out of clouded us team. That's right. Yeah, the thing with the Eagles, and this is true the Cowboys to a degree, the Cowboys still do themselves, have a fairly tough schedule. But the Eagles

run there in the middle of the season, right? they get the Cowboys of Week 7, the Cowboys in Week 9, then they get their buy, and then they are at Kansas City, home against Buffalo, home against San Francisco, at Dallas, and then I would even throw at Seattle in there, because I think Seattle's going to be really tough out this year. That middle stretch of the season, like I have them at 13 and 4, but with the amount of attrition that comes,

the amount of tough game after tough game and high caliber game and intense game, like, firstly, there's a way they come out of that feeling like we're going to win the Super Bowl. And there's also a way they come out of that like, holy smokes, like you're just going to reel a little bit. We're having such a tough November stretch. So schedule-wise, the Eagles are a team that you kind of expect, you know, they start with Patriots, Vikings, buccaneers, commanders, Rams. Like, you expect them to kind of have a nice on board of the season, iron out some kings. It's good, maybe softer slate for some of those young play callers.

And then Jets in Week 6th, Dolphins of Week 7, and Rams up quick. And so I think this would be an Eagles team where we'll sit at the top of October, you know, week four, week five, and say, Eagles look great, no surprise, young guys are dominating, you know, Jaylen Hertz is excellent, whatever. But we don't know anything about exactly what this team is yet. And we'll find that out over those two middle months. And I'll tell you what, the battles between the Eagles offense and the Cowboys defense, I mean, that is going to be fun. I think we both said, right, the Cowan Mitch you put up like 34 on them last year, baby. That's right. Yeah, he did. Yeah. We both have the Cowboys defense is the best in the league,

right? When we did our ranking. So, yeah, that's going to be strength on strength. Here's something I was curious. I was looking at this. I was curious with your thoughts were. Eagles Cowboys as the duo coming out of the NFC East, is that the best duo of any division in the league, like NFC or AFC? Right? You get C-Hawks-Niners, you get Chargers-Chiefs,

you get Bengals plus kind of whoever you want. You get Bills plus whoever you want out of the AFC. I think that, to me, like Eagles Cowboys is the strongest duo atop a division in the NFL. Like that fight is going to be the toughest fight. I think I agree with that. If you wanted to sell me on your choice of two AFC North teams, I would probably say, all right, we can have that conversation.

But yeah, I think you're right. That's going to be a lot of fun, those two teams battling it out to legit contenders. All right. The other teams in this division, Ben, the Giants and the Command. Did you do like a little record for every team? Okay, good. I did the same. So go ahead with Giants and commanders just quickly.

what do you think of those two teams for the rest of the division? Yeah, so I end up with the Giants as a seven-win team, which I think is like, you know, if they're closer to 500, I won't be surprised. I think they're really well-coached. I think they've done a good job bringing the right talent for the system. I do think they are a cut below what you expectable playoff team just because I think Daniel Jones is a limiting factor for them.

I still have offensive line questions. They obviously run a very aggressive defensive scheme, and I think that against top quarterbacks that can hurt you. So seven wins for the Giants I gave them. And then the commanders, man, I was struggling to find wins. I know there are some who are excited about this team. I get it. I thought you were going to be one.

I was ready to break out the football hipster society already, but it sounds like you're with me on the command. No, see, you always accuse me of football hipster society. I am just correct. Okay, that's what I am. And then the football hipster society occasionally the Venn diagram overlaps. Now, the commanders for me ended up a four-win team, which again, like I could see them being remarkably better than this.

I think that's a pretty low number. I have them, like, you know, getting swept by the Eagles, getting swept by the Cowboys. Obviously, we saw last season, like, that could very well not happen. The NFC East tends to play itself really tough. But the commanders, to me, like, I am extremely hesitant around their quarterback situation. And even if they quickly pull the plug on a bad Sam Howell experience

to get Jacoby Brissette in there, Jacoby, like, obviously played well for the Browns. They had a good offense. I don't think they have the same firepower in this offense as Jacoby did in Cleveland, and I'm not sure that he'll onboard as quickly. And so the commanders, to me, like, again, like, I get it. I can, I could talk myself into it.

If they end up being a team around 500, I won't be at all shocked. But it's the doubts around quarterback that have it really challenging for me to take them as, like, a legitimate team to win a ton of games. Last 10 years, okay, quarterbacks drafted in the fifth round or later in the last 10 years. How many of them do you think even started 10 games in a season in their career? Fifth round or later last 10 years. Did you understand that? Yeah.

Yes. Taken in the last 10 years, not start. So you've been drafted in the last 10 years in the fifth round or later those quarterbacks. How many of them even started 10 games in a season? I don't know. I'm not even talking performance. Just started 10 games in a season.

In a single season. In a single season. A single season. A season of at least 10 starts. If we're including on drafted players, it's like what, two? Gardner, Minshu and Trevor Simeon. Yeah, but I knew I had Gardner. I knew it had to be somebody who was an undrafted free agent who did.

So listen, there are always exceptions. If Sam Howell turns out to be Tony Romo or Tom Brady or someone, that's going to be a lot of fun. We'll have a new quarterback we can talk about in the NFL. But I think it's good to kind of look at those base rates or whatever you want to call them and just be like, wow, this is really rare for a guy to even be a starter taken there. So yeah, I have the commanders at 6 and 11. This to me just feels like a season of transition where they're going to kind of to play it out, new ownership, get a new coach at the end of the season, or maybe earlier than

that, and then figure out what direction you want to go in. So yeah, I've got them last also. The Giants to me, I think you nailed it. They were so well coached last year, but I'm just like, is that sustainable? There's two things here with them. Number one, they had the lowest turnover rate in the NFL, and it was the lowest for the Giants franchise in the last 20 years. Like, okay, that's hard to, that's going to be hard to, you know, is it to take, that's going to be hard to, just one All season ago, how much discourse there was around Daniel Jones not fumbling the football. And all that is like vanished in a year. Right.

Yeah. It's unbelievable. Unbelievable is the word for it. I'm not sure I do really believe it. Yeah. So there's that. And then this is another nugget I have on the Giants. 28 completions of 20 plus yards last year, Ben.

Fewest of any offense in the last 10 years. The last 10 years, think of all the bad offensive football. you've watched it. So they add Durenwaller, they add jail and Hyatt. Is that enough for that offense to cut? Because you're going to sacrifice some of the efficiency. Are you going to get that explosive element? I don't think so. So I just don't think they have enough there. And then defensively, they still have a lot of deficient. I like the front. You know, Kavon-Tibato could be like a breakout player. That front could be pretty interesting. But I still think you look at the overall talent and I feel like mediocrity is if everything goes well for

them. So I've got them as an eight-nine team. I think they're going to be feisty. I think they're going to be competitive. I think they're going to be well coached. But I think a slight step back for the Giants and they end up not making the postseason. All right. Let's take a little break here. We'll come back and we will go to the NFC North.

Get ready for the NFL season with incredible offers from Fandulul, America's number one sportsbook. Right now, new customers can bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets guaranteed. Plus all customers who bet $5 will get $1. $100 off NFL Sunday ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV. Let's see. What's one of the ones I like you know? You're listening to this episode. It's a certain NFC West team, the over on their win total.

I'll give you a hint. They have a head coach who doesn't age. You can go with that or you can go with something else. Now is the best time to join Fandall. The app is easy to use and you can bet on everything from spreads to player props and more. So visit Fandul.com slash Ringer NFL and kick off the NFL. NFL season with an offer you won't want to miss. Fandul, official partner of the NFL.

Must be 21 plus and present in select states. First online real money wager only, $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non-mustrable bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fandul.com. NFL Sunday ticket offer ends 9, 1823. No refunds. Terms and embargoes apply.

$100 off NFL Sunday ticket. Not YouTube TV. YouTube TV based plan required to watch YouTube TV. Redemption requires a Google account and current form of payment commercial use excluded. All right. We are back on extra point taken. The NFC North, maybe I'm trying to think. Is this the most like, no, it's probably a lot of these divisions are wide open.

This is certainly an interesting one where I don't know what order you're going to have these four teams. But let's start it off. Give me your division champ. for the NFC North. So I think the Lions are going to win it. When I ran the simulation, the Packers won it in a tiebreaker. I don't know.

So to me, those two teams are the teams that I see in the upper tier of this division. And then I had both the Vikings and the Bears as seven win teams in the next tier of this division. So that was like when I,

and you know, you poke around the simulation, you say, okay, like all these teams are going to split with each other in divisional games

because that's, that's the nature of being this closely grouped, right? A lot of them have, all of them have enough talent to win the division. A lot of it's going to come down to how luck breaks, how injury breaks, so on and so forth. The Lions, man, eight and two, the last ten games of the season.

I think we forget, like, everybody was like, oh, I'm excited. Like, the Lions are cute, lines are good. Lions are eight in two down the stretch. And that includes a loss of the bills that absolutely unequivocally should have been a win if they managed the end of the game. Like, this team was more than just a nice, plucky team, though. They were hot, man, last season. And when I think about the lions, relative to the giants,

because I was going through my head, I was like, okay, first year, offensive system, Brian Daimle and Mike Kafka, huge improvement for Daniel Jones. First year, offensive system, Ben Johnson, huge improvement for Jared Goff. Why do I buy the one more than I buy the other? Right? So I went to Detroit.

I talked to Ben Johnson, and it's so easy to get, like, proximity blindness. We're like, oh, I talked to this guy, and he told me how it worked. So now this one's legit, but the Daniel Jones one isn't. And the reason I think that I buy the golf one more than the, Jones one. It's because, like we were talking about with the Giants, the Jones improvement looked like not Daniel Jones, right?

They started throwing the ball shallow a lot when the whole bit on Daniel Jones was, he actually has a nice deep ball. They went, there's absolutely no turnovers from the whole bit on Daniel Jones that he was turning the football over it. So it feels phony. It feels funky. The lions were successful doing exactly what Jared Golf's always been good at, right? I mean, they're just gripping and ripping that thing over the middle of the field.

Just yards after they catch, running the, running McVeigh stuff, running it in creative ways, and then they have this really nice running game to buttress it. The other reason why I lean the Lions for the division is it comes down to the offensive line. The Eagles are the best offensive line in the league. I think that's true. I also think because of like kind of the celebrity factor of the Eagles' offensive line, like they've had this really good offense line for like five, six years at this point.

People think the difference between them and the second best line is like huge, and I would argue it is not. I think the lines are the second best line. I think it's pretty stinking close. We didn't even see them at full strength last season Halalupu Ati Vaitai their starting guard out for the entire season so they have all five and they really think

that they're going to be able to dominate that way and I think that if you like the Eagles are approved for this, if you want to just beat bad teams comfortably, dominate in the trenches and the Lions have that on the offensive side of the ball defensively question not as sure we'll say yeah I said this coming off

Lions camp as well if this team if this defense, I should say, ends up good. I think a big part of the reason why will be because their third round rookie Broderick Martin can play because they desperately need a nose tackle. And if he hits for them, right, which is like a dice roll on like a young guy and underdeveloped guy. But man, if he can round out, it's huge dividends for this defense.

But they massively retooled the secondary, right? Four of the five starters expected to be new. They're going to be a man-coverage-heavy team. They have the bodies to do it now more so than they did in years previous. So if the defense just regresses up to the mean, and the offense continues cooking. And I think they can. I think they can keep this fairly consistent.

This is a good, like, they're eight and two down the stretch. This is a good enough team to win double-digit games. I do like the Lions for the division. So you've got them with how many wins, the Lions? I had them with 10 wins and the Packers with 10 wins. Like I said, the Packers end up winning the tie break. I think that's about right for where I see both teams. A shade over 500.

Vikings and Bears, I had both with seven wins, a shade below 500. Okay. I've got the Lions as well. This is one where if I really like, liked another team, I would have been a little bit tempted to be like, all right, I'm not just going to crown Detroit. Sometimes it doesn't carry over from one year to the next. There wasn't another team in the NFC North where I could get there with. One of the things I think I mentioned it on a previous pod, Jared Goff has quarterback top 10 offenses four times in six seasons. Like that, you know,

that's another. You compare them to the Giants. Like that was the only time we've seen that version of Daniel Jones. So Jared Goff, when the circumstances are good around him, when he's comfortable, when he's protected, when he has playmakers, a good scheme, a good coach, all those things. He's shown he can operate a high-level offense, and he did that last year. The O-line point you made is a big one to me. They were, I think, bottom five in terms of adjusted games lost to injuries on their offensive line last year. Like, they weren't even at near full strength. They got way worse than average injury luck on their offensive line.

And now you have all five guys healthy. I'm with you. That's a top three offensive line. So I like that a lot. That's a reason to say, hey, maybe they could be a little bit better. Now, there are some things working against the Lions, I think, where they'll regress a little bit. You know, they were bottom five in turnover rate. Just like we mentioned with the Giants, a Jared Goughlet offense, I think you're probably going to turn it over a little more than bottom five.

They were top five in red zone efficiency. Maybe they're still really good, but not quite as good. So, yeah, I've got them with the top 10 offense. Now, the Ben Johnson thing is interesting to me because you made a great point. you talk to a coach and then you start feeling really good. Wow, this guy is really impressive. Like, we do do this kind of every off season. And then by the end of the season, wow, what happened to that guy?

You remember when he was, remember when people that Byron left which, Kellyn Moore, like, these guys were like, oh, you know, I'm still. Okay. We'll get to that in the other. But still, you know, he was let go by his team. Like, we did not see that as the next step in his career path was that he was going to be let go by his team and coach some and coaching somewhere. else. So we do do this a bit. I thought it looked good, you know, from Ben Johnson last year. He

seemed legit to me. I will say that it's still a relatively small body of work there for the offense. Defensively, I think the talent is better. I still don't think it's a very good defense. I think it's a below average defense. But hey, good offense, bad defense. I've got him at 10 and 7 winning the division. All right. The extra point taking team, you mentioned. So you have the Packers 10 and 7. How are you feeling about that? You feel good? I mean, like, what if Jordan Love's good, man? That's the whole premise of the extra point taking team is kind of, you know, what if Jordan Love's good?

Okay. I've always enjoyed and appreciated and thought there were good seeds in what I've seen from Jordan Love when he played in regular season action. You see him this preseason. It's just continuing positive, like, there's nothing to change your mind, right? If you were like, Jordan Love's not going to be good, then like the preseason is not going to change your mind. but as somebody who I already liked him, he comes in preseason.

He looks solid. He looks he has a good handle on the offense. Again, talk about offensive line, right? I'm sure when I said, I think the lines are the second best offensive line. There were a lot of Packers fans who were like, whoa, whoa, well, slow down. Because the Packers have a legitimate argument for that spot as well. They're on the Mount Rushmore for sure.

So they have the ability to protect. They have the ability to run the football, Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon. I think that it's easy to forget just how much experience, just how much of a background Matt LaFlor has in helping a non-elite quarterback. Right? It was Jared Gough and Marcus, Mario. before it was Aaron Rogers, right? And so I think that, like, you know,

that you've got a good baseline there for his ability to lift the floor. And then, like, defensively, the Packers, man, like, figuring out the Packers defense and how much to trust them. And if they're real, is a total nightmare. It always has been, fundamentally, there's so much talent here, right? Like, you just, you expect the defense. It's featuring Rishon, Gary, and Kenny Clark, and Preston Smith, and Lucas Van Ness to be able to get after the quarterback.

You expect a defense that has Jare Alexander and Rassul Douglas to be able to cover, right? Like, it's just like, even if Joe Barry is a limiting factor, they still have enough talent to get stops to win games in the fourth quarter. Like, I just, I can't look at the Packers roster and then like the Bears roster, the Vikings roster and earnestly pretend that Jordan Love so greatly limits this team that they're like below those guys. That's my issue is, you know, we're going to get into this with the foul because I'm sure in Desmond Ritter.

But like, there's, there's quarterbacks being bad enough to like totally lampoon an offense. And then those quarterbacks who they don't elevate, but they just don't cause problems. and the Packers have a good coaching staff and a good set of talent such that if Jordan Love is just actively not causing issues, they should be a fine team. They just had that level of skill. I think that that is the case for the Packers. I mean, you look at it last year in Aaron Rogers, I think by most metrics was probably a mediocre to below average quarterback. And they had the 11th ranked offense in DVOA. They were the fifth best rushing team last year.

And they've got all those pieces are back. LaFleur, the scheme, Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, the offensive line. That running game should be really, really, really. good. And I think that's great for a quarterback who's a first-time starter in Jordan Love. Also, this is kind of a fun experiment. We don't get this anymore where the quarterbacks in the system for three seasons doesn't start. And now all of a sudden, all right, and how much do those practice reps actually matter? How much does that time with the coaching staff in the meeting rooms? You have an edge there over all the other young quarterbacks. Let's see what you got. So I wish they had a little

more talent around him. I like Christian Watson. The other guys are all exciting, but they're all like rookies are second year players and we don't really know what they're going to give us. So I think that's the case for the Packers' offense. The defense, I think you hit the nail on the head. I think the talent sets the floor and I don't think we're expecting them to reach their ceiling just because we have two years of evidence that they're not playing up to their talent, but they're talented enough where they might be the 20th ranked defense or somewhere in that middle tier and maybe that'll be.

Okay, here's the other thing. And we talked about this on a previous episode. There's a chance Matt LaFleur is like a really, really, really good. I mean, 47 and 19, winning 71% of your games, that doesn't happen by accident. I hear you people yelling at me saying, shield, the guy had Aaron Rogers. You know how many times Aaron Rogers has won 13 games in a season, three seasons in a row, once under Matt LaFleur. I mean, I think we forget what we kind of thought of.

We were Aaron Rogers before this. We're kind of like, all right, is he in the decline stage of his career? Is it all Mike McCarthy's fault? We're never going to see. And then the guy wins two MVPs. By the way, we've learned a lot about Aaron Rogers over the last few years. I don't know that that would be the easiest guy to coach if you did a poll of 32 NFL head coaches and had them rank quarterbacks based on coachability.

I don't know that Aaron Rogers would be in the top five. So again, you know, Aaron Rogers had won 13 games once in the previous 11 years before Matt LaFlofflor. So listen, I'm not telling you Matt LaFleur made Aaron Rogers or anything like that. I understand talent wins, talent at quarterback wins. But I do, you know, we do have to take. take that into account when you talk about some of these other coaches that we'll talk about. Like, there's a chance that he's a really good coach. There's a chance that the kind of feeling in that building is, hey, it wasn't all Rogers.

We're good players too. Let's get like that kind of galvanizing effect. And so I think there's a chance that they are a surprise team. I've got him at nine and eight. I wasn't, you know, I didn't have them as a double digit win team. I think the floor is lower than maybe you do. Like, I do think there's a chance that Jordan Love is kind of a, You know, he could be like a bottom six, bottom eight type quarterback,

and they really stink this year and the defense underperforms its talent again. So we're obviously not predicting that because we both got him in the playoffs here, as I assume, right? Ten wins, you've got them in the playoffs as a wildcard team? Yeah, I have the make it as, yeah, because they're the extra point-taking team. So you have to. Yeah, absolutely. By law, you have to do that.

All right. So we're boring so far. We've got the same four playoff teams so far. I have a feeling that's going to change. Just a couple things on the Vikings and the Bears here. I honestly think the, I was looking at the Vikings going in another year, I would be saying the Vikings are a little undervalue. I think I'm very clouded by how they were like the luckiest team of all time last year.

But I'm looking at their offense. I like the skill position players around cousins. They've got two good offensive tackles. I'm not saying they're going to be great, but I think they're going to be like mediocre to slightly above average on offense. Defensively, they have no talent, but they hired a coordinator who I really like in Brian Flores, who kind of has a history of being able to do more with, less. So I've got them at eight and nine. I was a little bit tempted. Like I've had many Vikings

predictions in the, I just go all in on the Vikings. I'm like, I'm not doing that this year. I don't think they're making the playoffs, but I've got them in eight, eight and nine. And it certainly wouldn't shock me if they were nine and eight or even 10 and seven and made the playoffs. And then the bears are the last team. You know, I think we've talked quite a bit about the bears this offseason. I just look at that offensive line and what's shaping up that they're going to put out there in two weeks. And it's not like, I would be hoping for a bigger upgrade. then they're going to happen. Kevin Jenkins is injured.

Nate Davis, the free agent signing, he hasn't been practicing. There's some weird mystery there when you kind of read the reporting. They've got DJ more, but who else do they have? So I think they're exciting. I'm going to want to watch the Bears. I want to see what Justin Fields has,

at least with one very good wide receiver here, but I just don't feel like they've done enough where I can say they're making the lead. Now, again, it would have shocked me. Fields could be the guy. We're all talking about November 1st. Hey, he's the latest quarterback who made the leap. at the numbers of this guy's putting up,

that would be very exciting for a Bears fan. That would be very exciting from a league-wide perspective. I'm just not willing to predict that happened. That was great. That's staying in. Ben, what did you just drop? What was happening there? I dropped my AirPods case.

I was fiddling with it. I fiddle with things during pods. The Bears. I, yes, they're like, you were a little tempted by the Vikings. I was a little tempted by the bears. I don't, I definitely don't think the bears are going to be good. put it in the newspaper that I think the bears are going to be good. However, this is absolutely the first time in fieldless career where I look at the

offense that they're fielding and go, oh, that's functional, right? Like, this personnel could, like, actually achieve a thing, right? Like, I agree with you. Like, the offensive line's not far from perfect. But it is the best that he's had in three years. Wide receiver room is the exact same thing. The best that he's had in three years. The Bears really did a good job this offseason.

I think Ryan Poles was, I've been critical of Ryan Poles, but like sitting down now and looking at it. kind of stepping away from like, oh, this contract may be too big. Oh, I don't know about this trade at this time. He's on a really good job of just getting functional guys in the building, right? Like, T.J. Edwards, Tremaine Edmins, Nate Davis, Yannick & Gokwey.

I already said Nate Davis. DJ Moore. Like, it's just they have, they've, they don't have the amount of stars that you'd like to have. They don't have the amount of, like, high impact players that if you're going to, like, make legitimate run, right? Like, one of my problems with DJ Moore is, like, I don't think he's like an AJ Brown level of player where he can elevate Fields the way that Brown did for Hertz. But they just have like, you don't look at this roster anymore and go like, ah, well, I don't know that reaction. Like the Cardinals and the Buccaneers and the Rams, or not the Buccaneers, the Cardinals and the Rams, I don't have that reaction with the Bears roster anymore.

And so if Fields takes a leap, I won't be terribly surprised because of that. Because I feel like the floor of this roster has been raised such that they don't have as many just clear glaring issues as they once did. Let me ask you this, because I know you're a big Fields guy, you still absolutely believe in him. So you look at the talent around Justin Fields. What is a reasonable expectation where you say, if Justin Fields is the guy I think he is, the bearer should have the X-ranked offense. Let's get you on the record with that. That way we can compare it throughout the season.

Because there are, listen, I think we both see the conversations coming of, yeah, they added more and they tried to do the offensive line. But look at this team. They're trotting out here, you know, December 9th. he still doesn't have a chance, and there's going to be validity to that. So what is reasonable for this Bears' offense if he's the player you think he is?

DVOA? Yeah, sure. 13th, right? Like last year... Oh, that's higher than I thought you're going to say. Okay. So you think with the pieces around him, he should be able to get them to the 13th-grateful offense.

Yeah, they should be 13th. I'm not sure Fields is going to end up who I think he is. I have an optimistic outlook. I have a rosy outlook on Fields. But like for perspective last year Like I pulled 13th because I know exactly What the Falcons were in DVOA last year And they were 13th right

And like that was like Baltimore was 12th with with With like Lamar and then the injuries I'm looking at it now Seahawks for 14th right Like I think you can just be that You can be slightly above average I think that this running game will be good right The departure of David Montgomery doesn't hassle me too much And Cleveland Herbert's a good back

And I think Fields is the one who makes the numbers work there I think the running game is going to work for them I think that Fields will continue to invite and introduce negative plays because of his sack rate, but they're still going to have the ability to convert on third and longs and create explosive plays because of his running. So you kind of live with that double-edged sword. Now, I think the wide receiver room stepping forward can pay the passing game off better.

And then I think defensively, they're not going to be like a, do you remember that Cowboys game last year where it was like Dack was practicing on air? Like, I don't think they're going to be that again. I think they're going to be able to actually have some teeth to them. I will say, like, if you wanted me to really buy in on the base, I would want a crystal ball and I would want to ask about this defensive tackle situation because they love what they've gotten so far

to Jervind Dexter and Zach Pagan, second and third round pick respectively. But oh boy, starting two rookies on the interior sounds fun in August. I don't know if it's fun in September. And so that's the spot on that roster. Like I said, there's so many areas in this roster where you're like, oh, cool, this is functional now. Defense of tackle is the

one where you're still like, I might have to hold our nose here a little bit. So if they get something out of those rookies, I feel like that'll be big for that defense. It's up front on both sides of the ball really still scares me with them. I mean, you know, yeah, yeah, Janik and Gakwe. I mean, the guy has been on what, five teams in five seasons, DeMarcus Walker.

They signed. He had a good season last year, but that was his like breakout season. Like, this isn't somebody with a long history of sustained success, and these are your best players up front. So I worry about their pass rush, and I still do worry about their offensive line. For context, when Justin Fields was healthy last year, if you look at the Bears' offensive performance, it translated to roughly the 20th best offense in the NFL.

So that was even with all those negative plays. So yeah, he does. He's exciting and he makes up for it in some ways. I don't know if it's sustainable or not. We will see here. I've got the Bears also at 7 and 10, but they're like an interesting 7 and 10 where I want to watch what the Bears do every week.

I want to see what Fields does. And you're right about more. I don't think he's AJ around, but I do think he's somebody who can really help a quarterback develop there. All right. We've had the same four teams. in the playoffs in the first two divisions, I feel like it's about to change Benjamin Select.

Because we are getting to the NFC South. I feel like no podcast has teased their NFC South takes more than extra point taken. For some reason, we think people actually care about this. People might even be fast forwarding through this division being like, get me to the NFC West. But who do you have for your division winner in the NFC South? I think I know. Rise up, baby.

Falcons are winning it. Here we go. 10 and 7. Okay, so as everybody knows, at this point, I feel like every preview I listen to has it. The Falcons and the Saints have the easiest schedules among anybody in the entire league. Correct. They get to play their division as well, right, where you expect wins against the Buccaneers. And I'm a little low on the Panthers.

I expect wins against the Panthers. I don't know where you are on the Panthers. I know you're a bit of a big mistake. Bit of a Carolina guy. I'm emailing that clip to Frank Wright as soon as I get off. Yeah, you and Frank Wright, you buddies. Here's why I like the Falcons. I think that Marcus Mariotta was as prohibitive to the success of his offense as any quarterback in the league was last year.

I thought that when you go back and when you watch the film, you go back and you look at the data, look at uncastable rates, especially on throws 20 plus yards down the field. Mario dauter just could not execute this offense successfully. That reality led for the Falcons to have the 13th best offense by DVOA. They were the second offense in terms of rushing offense. And another thing that football outsiders does that's really cool is they look at variance. How much is your DVA variance week to week?

And the Falcons were second best in the league. This train chugs, right? This, like, I think that fun, like, I think we can argue a lot about, like, ceiling and a floor and, like, the defense and everything. But I think you can't argue with, like, this offense works, right? They run a large variety of personalities. They have a ton of guys who are able to block and contribute in the running game. and then they find a myriad of creative ways to generate positive runs. And then they can just out physically you for four quarters, right?

The best thing about watching the Falcons last season was taking a look at their schedule and being able to like circle certain opponents and be like, oh, the Falcons are going to just run the ball on these guys because they're going to be able to dominate like that. They had the 37 point game against the Panthers. They had the win against the 49ers. 49ers defense was banged up, scored 28 points. Like you're looking and you're going like, oh, like the way these defenses work, like they just can't survive this level of physicality.

So the Falcons are very much a zag against the league's zig in terms of offense, right? Now they transition to Desmond Ritter in lieu of Marcus Marietta. I liked Ritter coming out of Cincinnati, and I thought over the four games that you watched him played last season, you saw him improve. You saw him get up to NFL speed. I don't think you saw like, you know, he looks like Kenny Pickett does. No, I don't think he was like he looked that good at the end of last season. but I think if you watch the first four games of Kenny Pickett's career,

which he got in weeks, what, like three through six, and you watch the first four games of Desmond Ritter's career, which are the last four games of the season, I think you have a guy who could reasonably be on a similar trajectory. You could reasonably be on a similar path. Ritter has to be able to execute the offense by executing play action and throwing the ball downfield aggressively, which is exactly what he did in Cincinnati,

and he's always done it well. So I have faith that Ritter can succeed here. The two other things that I really like about the foul. One, offensive line, right? It's a big theme for our NFC pod here, but the Falcons offensive line, they have a big question with Matt Bergeron who stepping into left guard.

Yeah, Lindstrom's on the right. Yeah, I can never... Lindstrom played left guard in BC, and I was the right card, it always screws me up. Anyway, Matt Bergeron, second round rookie out of Syracuse, stepping into left guard. Other than that, this line is rock-solid. You really have a lot of faith in their ability to win up front.

And the second thing I like a lot is Ryan Nielsen, who's their defensive coordinator. Nielsen comes from New Orleans, where the entire New Orleans defensive philosophy was like, what if we just had the biggest honking dudes on the line? And then that solved all of our problems for us. And that's exactly what they're doing again, right? Get Callais Campbell in the building, get David O'Mada in the building,

draft Zach Harrison out of Ohio State. Big fellas. We're going to be really large up front, and that's going to help us win against the run and get extra numbers and coverage behind AJ Terrell, one of the most underrated corners, perennially underrated players in the league. Jesse Bates brought in a free agency.

I think the Falcons defense is going to be able to clear that bar of like, okay, they're not winning games for you, but they are not losing games for you. They've hit the mark of average. They are not a liability for you. And I think this offense can power them to wins, especially in games where they're able to control line of scrimmage, which they should be able to do against most teams. I think they have a great winning formula. I expect them to win a division.

Hit me, Sheal. Let me. I have questions. So I have the Falcons at 8 and 9, not making the playoffs. So for all this, we're two wins off from our predictions from the Atlanta Falcons. So maybe it's not that different than we thought it was going to be. I think the point about Arthur Smith being able to do more with less, yeah,

there's absolutely evidence for that. I have no argument against it. He did it in Tennessee. He did it with the Falcons last year. I think you give that roster to every offensive coach and play caller in the NFL. And I don't know how many, like maybe there's three to five that I would say would have been able to get them to that ranking or higher.

So I think that was an exceptional job. Let me ask you this question. I agree with you on Mario da. Like he was terrible last year. forget how you phrased it, the quarterback who damaged his offense's chances of succeeding more than any other. Why did it take it to Week 15 then for Arthur Smith, a coach who is looking to make the playoffs last year to finally make the move to Desmond Ritter in place of Marcus Mariotta?

That's a question I need to answer if we're going to say Arthur Smith loves Desmond Ritter and believes in him and is handing him the keys and they're going to be a 10-win team this year. Why did Shanahan never play Trey Lance in his rookie year? Why did Reed not play Mahomes in his rookie year? Why didn't the Eagles get Jalen Hertz in above Carson West? Because they had good quarterbacks. Alex Smith?

Yeah, Jimmy was taking him to Super Bowls. One Super Bowl. Yeah. I'm saying this guy stunk. Yes, there's always a rational actor assumption when it comes to coaches and quarterback decisions that I just don't think is, like, in my opinion is rarely applicable, if ever,

where it's like, oh, a coach would always get the right quarterback in for the right game. Like, no, we just have so much evidence that head coaches mismanaged quarterback all the time, right? We just have like Kyle Allen going into the middle of the season for like three separate teams at different points, right? Like quarterback development is so hard. If this were easy, if this made sense, everybody would do it and would do it well. When you listen to Arthur Smith talk about Ritter, he talks about a guy who is first in the building, last out of the building. I was all the tools to run his offense

and needed time last season to get up to NFL speed. I in week eight, I'll never know was week nine, because the Falcons are five and four, and everybody else in the division was four and five. And I was screaming at the top of my lungs. Do not let the fact that you are leading the division by one game, barely over 500, convince you that you should not be making a quarterback change.

This guy is killing your team. But there they were, right? And that's the thing is like, it's not like this Falcons team was four and seven and clearly losing the division, or like, even five and four, but the division leader was eight and one. They were there. They were, if we don't touch this,

maybe we'll just slide into the playoffs at 500. And like, yes, it would have been so much better for Arthur Smith's future and the Falcon's future. If he said it doesn't matter what our record is, let's put Desmond Ritter in, see if the young guys got something. So we know next season if we can aggressively go after Lamar Jackson or draft a guy or whatever. But that's not what coaches do. They get into the season and they start winning games and they go,

we're on pace through the division nobody move and then Marcus Mario Nukes their season so to me like it's just that never means anything to me like why didn't this coach make this personnel decision there's like 95 personnel decisions on a weekly basis that drive me nuts

like all of them don't make sense there's information we don't have there's coaching philosophy on how you develop guys there's Arthur Smith's connecting to Marcus Marioada less we forget like when they eventually put Ritter as the starter Marioo like left the building like that was not a good situation. So it's tough for me to say like, oh, this, this actually reflects on Desmond Ritter.

I think there's far too many conflating factors. It could be as, yeah, it could be as simple as as his belief is when you have a rookie quarterback, don't throw them in there until they're ready. It could be as simple as that. It could not be as simple as that when you look at where they drafted Desmond Ritter, who they took before him, when you look at them signing. I know you like to poo-poo this, but they did sign Taylor Hineke to a two-year $14 million deal. Maybe they just wanted a good backup. Maybe they thought, let's hedge our bets a little bit. So we'll see.

I'm not coming. Like, I don't have a strong Desmond Ritter stinks and has no chance take. That's really not where I'm coming from. I'm just not nearly as confident as those who are picking the Falcons that he's going to be an upgrade over Marcus Mariotta. I agree that Marcus Mariotta wasn't good. I think there's a chance that Desmond Ritter is a way below average quarterback this season. So that's really all I'm coming from there.

The other question I wanted to ask you is this, their run game last year, Mariotto was obviously a part of that. I don't think we think Desmond Ritter is going to be a part of that. And I was kind of sorting their games by success rate last year. And some of their worst, I think three of their four worst rushing performances of the season where when Desmond Ritter was the quarterback, is that just coincidence in like, do you, you feel confident that this will be like a top five run? Because they did add Bja Robinson, by the way. You feel confident that this will be a top five run game. They'll scheme it up even without Desmond Ritter. kind of being nearly as big a part of it as maybe Marcus Mariotta was. In Reader's last season, he had seven games at double-digit carries. He had over the course of a four-year career starting at Cincinnati, 500 carries in 50 games. But last year, he barely ran the ball at all in four games. Ritter is not the degree of dual-threat quarterback that Mariotta is and was. He is, however, viable.

He can pull. I think that one of the reasons why you saw the run game not include Ritter as much when he went in is because Ritter was making a very concerted effort to execute the passing game. You tell he's like trying to like get through the stuff and sometimes to his detriment because it's like, he doesn't,

like you have to learn and grow and mature. Like this is just pull it. Like just just tuck it and go and pick up four yards. I think that's part of the maturation process. But I don't think Ritter is a non-zero in the running game, in the design running game as the quarterback, as a contributor, right? Common comps for Ritter when he came out were like,

pre-foot injury DAC and like skinny Tannahill, both of whom are guys who, again, like, you don't think of those dudes as like, oh, Justin Fields, like, Joe and Jay-Harn's going to pull the ball 30 times, but both of them are impactful players in the running game. They have the ability to pull on a read, and then they have the ability to scramble. I think that's a reasonable expectation for Ritter. I'm not too concerned that he's so immobile that they're not going to be able to include the option game and he's going to nuke the running game design-wise. I think it won't be fine.

Okay. I saw you. What was the smirk? Tell me about the smirk. I saw you smirking. Well, I thought skinny Tannahill. I was like, Tana Hill's pretty like in shape. Like, is Tanya Hill thick?

Like, what is skinny Tannahill? I thought that was a little unnecessary shot. Ryan, I think you look great, man. You've always looked great. He's an athlete. You know, he's a great athlete. Tannhill is just like a bulky dude. Tana Hill's like 6-4-22.

You would describe him as bulky? Yeah. I would not. Okay. He's not a boss. He's a more of an athlete. He has a athletic build. Okay.

He's well built. Tannahill, I'm not saying TANHill should be more like Ritter. I'm saying Ritter and he seemed more like Tannhill. When Ritter, I'll never forget when the first like images and in clips of Ritter like in the preseason came out, his rookie season, just seeing him among NFL bodies and being like, oh, they've got to feed that man a sandwich. He's a just naturally skinny guy. So he's skinnier than Tannihil, but I would much rather have Ritter look like Tannahill than have it the other way. It's always a little untoward.

is that the when two two podcasters in their home studios are just critiquing like NFL I went on a run today baby I'm feeling I'm feeling

I'm feeling so there you look good there you go I'm not I by the way I think their defense it has to be better basically

because they added some talent but I did not like their approach to how they built that I mean they signed three guys over 30 years old up front this off season

in Clay's Campbell David on Yamada Bud Dupri I'm not saying those guys are bad players but I thought that was a weird way to build it. It's a first-time defensive coordinator like DeMario Davis, Cam Jordan,

Marshawn Latimore, those guys aren't coming over with you from New Orleans to Atlanta. Dean Pease has like a pretty good history in the league of being a good coordinator. So I'm not convinced that that's going to be an upgrade. All right. I've got them 8 and 9. You've got them 10 and 7. That was the conversation we had been teasing for, again, six months or whatever it was. Now you're going to laugh at me. You're going to make fun of me. I'm taking a swing here with my NFC South champ. I think you can pick one of three teams and justify it. The Saints are the favorites.

The Falcons are Solex pick. I'm picking the Carolina Panthers to win the NFC South. I may be the only one in America. I know we have an international audience, as we learned in the last episode. Maybe someone in Australia. Maybe somebody, someone elsewhere in the world. Agreed with me that the Panthers can win the NFC South. I have not found that person yet.

So here's the case. They don't have as easy of a schedule as the Falcons and the Saints, but they do have the fourth easiest schedule. All right. That's nice. Wide open NFC. South, Frank Reich, very good coach. Frank Reich, four full seasons as a head coach. His worst record was 7 and 9. That was in 2019 with Jacobi Berset. So I think he's, whatever there is to

get out of this team, I think he will get out of this team. I generally do not trust rookie quarterbacks, but man, if you look at Bryce Young compared to the other guys, like if anyone's going to make a smooth transition or should make a smooth transition, I think it should be the guy who played in the NFC in the SEC for two years and played at a high level and was not really on a stacked Alabama team last year. I remember when I'm watching the Bryce Young film for the draft. I'm like, this guy is getting beat up quite a bit here with their offensive line. So I don't think he's used to like these perfect conditions. So I'm not telling you the offense is going to be great.

I do think the offense can be competent. Now, this is one, Ben, we've talked about how much stock do we put in the preseason. Like, I was feeling pretty good about this, this Panther's offensive line before. the summer start? That was the first thing I was going to ask you when you were done. Like, where are we at after the preseason games? Well, I'm trying to just be like, don't put too much stock into that. You thought they were a competent, solid offensive line on August 1st.

It hasn't been the prettiest thing here in August and the preseason, but the talent is still there. Econwu is really like an important player. I mean, if you look at it league-wide, like I thought he had a chance to really make a leap. He improved last year. He was a top top 10 pick when he came. out and he just hasn't been the same guy. So he really could be a swing player for them offensively. Defensively, you know, I'm taking a big swing on their defense being awesome. I feel good about it.

We both love the coordinator at Giro Evereaux. I like the talent they have at premium positions with Brian Burns and Derek Brown and J.C. Horn and Jeremy Chin. I like the veterans that they have and Justin Houston and Von Bell. I'm not telling you they're perfect. I know they've got some holes on their defense. They're not the deepest group. If a couple of those guys go down, could get ugly pretty quickly, but man, I do like their defense. I think Reich will get the most out of that offense. I like Bryce Young a lot as a prospect. And so nine and eight, I'm not going big on this.

I'm going nine and eight, a one game lead over everyone else in the division. The Carolina Panthers win the NFC South. Go ahead. You can make fun of me all you want. So here's the thing I want to understand. If you had to divide a percentage of this prediction, like the credit for it, offense and defense, what percent are you giving to the offense?

What percent are you giving to the defense? I mean, I think the defense, I have them as a top 10 unit, and I think the offense is probably, I think the best case scenario for the offense is probably mediocrity. But I do think they can hit that.

So I would give the, it would probably be like, what does that make it? Like 70% defense, 30% offense, something like that, 6535. Yeah. So that construction,

that idea, I'm fine with, right? I think if somebody were to argue, hey, the Panthers are going to win the division with like a mediocre record, but they'll win it on the back of how good their offense is going to be, I just feel like, hey, like, I cannot get there with you. Like, even if Bryce Young ends up good,

we really don't commonly see rookies, make it to the playoffs in the first year. They start rookies, rookie starting quarterbacks. I have myriad questions about this receiving group as well. 100%. Yeah. The Adam Thielen, Terrace Marshall,

Leviska Chanel Jonathan Mingo and DJ Chark when he's healthy group does not necessarily inspire playmaking magic and wonder as far as receivers go. It took me so long to remember who their tight end was. And I was like, oh, that's right. Hayden Hurst, the most, forgive me, just like unrememberable, like just average, like just, just Haydenhurst, just good solid. That is their whole skill group is just like in the same exact category of player

league-wide. We're like, eh, that guy can line up and play. He's probably not going to be a plus, but maybe you can

just do the things they ask them to do. I'm with you there. I mean, that, yeah, that is my absolute biggest concern with them.

It's actually not the offensive line. It's that skill group. Yeah, and so you go and you say, all right, well, defensively,

it's going to power them to a division win. And I'm, I'm much more fine with expecting that defense makes that leap. But the issue is when we just historically

look over what predicts playoff appearance and postseason performance, it's offense and not defense, right? It tends to be the teams of the really good offenses that make it, and the teams with that with poor defenses, or not the teams with really good offenses that make it. It's just,

offense is so much more sticky. It's so much more predictive of making the playoffs and defenses. And so it would really have to be a top than unit. It would have to be pushing a top five unit. It would have to be high in turnovers, creating short fields, generating points on their own. Like, you know, think about the Patriots defenses of this past year, like just pulling these teams into 500 to get it done.

And I think that's within the range of outcomes for the Panthers. They need a Giro Ever to be the guy that we think is going to be. They would need step forward from Brian Burns, like elite pass rusher. They would need J.C. Horn, true lockdown guy. They do need some things to break their way. So I don't mind having the Panthers as more spicy than the Saints. I think I like the fact that you and I are both Saints doubters. But in general, I can't fully get there on the Panthers.

And that's even before we introduce some of my like Bryce Young concerns, where I'm a little bit lower on him than consensus is. I don't get there with the Panthers. I need like 10th ranked defense, 20th ranked offense, easy schedule. Reich's going to be good in his game management has typically been very good. Maybe he gives you a little bit of an edge

over the other coaches in the NFC. Listen, you take a swing sometimes. What do you think? We're just going to come on here and just pick all the favorites in the NFC. That's no fun. You got other podcasts for that. We're not doing that.

All right. So I've got the Panthers 9 and 8. I've got the Falcons, 8 and 9. that leaves us with the Saints and the Bucks. What do you got, Ben, for those two teams? Yeah, so the Saints I have at 8 and 9, and I have the Bucks at the three win team. I think the Bucks are going to be just dreadful.

I think the Bucks are going to be sellers by the deadline. The team is starting Baker-Mayfield, and I'm personally very pleased about that, because I bet on Baker-Mayfield is starting for this team. And so that's great. But in general, I think it's hard to find a win for them early in there.

The season they get the Falcons in week's the Texans in week nine, but before that, it's Vikings, Bears, Eagles, Saints, bills. I expect all those teams to be solid. I think the Falcons are going to be there too. So we started to get a deadline time

and they're just clearly dead in the water. Like, I think they're going to be sellers. I think there to be a team that's not actively trying to win games as they start to look for the 2024 quarterback class. The Saints. I struggle with the Saints every year because every single year, this team has just a mountain of an avalanche

that should be falling down on them in terms of the talent drain that they've had to endure, the fact that their roster is getting older, the way that they manage their cap and the way they try to stretch out these post-Jubris seasons. And then every single year, it feels like they're able to dodge the bricks, right? They're able to dodge the fall and survive. And even if they don't make the playoffs, it's like a respectable finish. And then I'm just the boy who cried wolf next, obviously, to be like, it's coming. Like, the fall off, the drop-off has got to come.

There's so much riding on Michael Thomas being healthy on the office. offensive side of the ball. And I think that's just such a thin bet. I think that'd be great. If he were good and like Prime Michael Thomas was a fun player to watch, but I do have a lot of doubt there. And then defensively, like, this is where I really struggle with the Saints. Like, I tend to really like the players that they bring in. Like, I liked Marcus May when he was with the Jets. I love Nathan Shepard when he was with the Jets. He's now there's defensive tackle. Like when they took Paul Senebos, Adibo, I loved Paul Sina adieb. Allante Taylor, great draft pick. Like, I tend to love the guys that they bring in to

solve all of their problems. So I want to love them. But I also just look at this depth chart and just like you have Cam Jordan, you have DeMario Davis and Pete Werner, you have Marciaun Latimore, Alante Taylor, and then you can probably argue Marcus May. Everybody else, and I'm including Toronto Matthew in this, would not start on another team. They just wouldn't. I mean, like, Toronto would because of his name, but like in terms of the quality of his play,

we're not, he's not there. He would start. You've looked at the safeties around the NFL. He would start. He'd start. He'd start. Yeah. But to Ron Matthew is not delivering the above average to elite level of play that he was known for delivering.

That's just not. He doesn't, he doesn't, he's starting to hit his clip in that regard. And I don't know how much longer. Like, Dennis Allen's a good defensive coach. I don't know if you can cover things up like this. Like, this is just really something. This is a tough set of ingredients to make a stew out of. And so accordingly, like, I think the saints are due to fall back a little bit.

I think the Saints who do to start to struggle more and more frequently. And I'm probably still going to sound like an idiot for saying that, but that's how I think of the Saints. They are my first team out, if that's a thing. This is like the NCAA tournament. If we didn't pick the Packers for our extra point-taking team, there's a good chance I pick the Saints to be a playoff team. Maybe I don't know if I were picking them to win the division,

maybe be a wild card. But, man, they've got the easiest projected schedule in the NFL when you look at Vegas win totals. That defense, I'm just going to. and kind of trust it. It's been really one of the most consistent defenses in the NFL the last five years. I agree with your concerns, though. It's like a lot, I mean, these guys are all in their 30s to Mario Davis is 34. I mean, Cam Jordan, Marcus May, Tyron Matthew, like at some point, we don't know when. Again, we can be doing the same exercise next summer and we look like idiots and they win the division. But at some point, that's going to happen. Derek Carr, I feel like we'll just play to the

level of talent around him. That's kind of been pouring out with his time with the Raiders. I think his average DVOA with the Raiders over his entire career as a starter, you take out his rookie season, was 15th, which is basically exactly what anybody would have guessed. So I don't know that the talent around him is good enough to get him higher than that. I think they're going to have a mediocre offense. I think they're going to have a slightly above average defense.

And then it comes down to the coach, Dennis Allen now, 15 and 38. He's won 28% of his games as a head coach. Talk about game management where I just praised Reich. I mean, Alan arguably the worst at that in the NFL last year. So I think he's a great defensive coach. I think he's a great defensive coordinator. I don't really trust him as a head coach. So when I look at these teams that are kind of on the fringe,

that's usually where I go to. I say, all right, is this head coach going to give them an edge? Or is this head coach going to cost them games? And I don't think Alan is someone who's going to give them an edge. So listen, the Saints are the favorites. If you look at Fandul, the favorites to win the NFC, South, they absolutely could with the NFC South. If they won nine or ten games,

that would not shock me. I don't think they have a high ceiling, but I'm with you. I've got them as an eight-win team, and then I don't need to say much more on the box. I've got them at six wins, just because I think that defense can be pretty good there, but your prediction would not surprise me at all when

you look at their quarterback situation. All right, let's take one more break. We'll get to the NFC West, and then we'll see who we've got coming out of the NFC in the playoffs. All right, we are back on extra point taken. Ben, this was the one division, the NFC West, where I actually made a change today,

day of recording on who I've got winning the division. I'm going to go with the Seahawks. We're in the content business. Do you have them? Yes, sir. Oh my gosh, we're absurd people. All right, we've both got the Seahawks. So I'll start with the case.

You add on to the case for the CIO. So I've got him at 11 and 6 winning the NFC West, the Jackson Smith and Jigba injury that was scared me off a little bit, but I'm going to trust that he's back at some point in the first month of the season and that Gino Smith has a great trio of wide receivers to throw to in D.K. Metcalfe, Tyler Lockett, and Smith and Jigpa. They've got two offensive tackles who were competent last year and presumably theoretically should be better this year in their second seasons.

So I really think that offense has a chance to be a top 10 offense this year. The defense, I'm not as bullish on the defense. I don't think they're making a major leap. They've really been a mediocre defense for like five years in a row. At the same time, I like the talent in the secondary. I think they've got guys back there who can play where if somebody pops, if we're talking about, hey, Rieck Wullen is an all pro this year. We're saying, hey, Devon Wetherspoon is the next corner who comes in right away and plays well.

Then you can get to a point where you say, all right, I really like what I see. from that defense. So this is one where I trust the coaching staff, Pete Carroll, winning record 10 of the last 11 seasons with three different quarterbacks. That wasn't all Russ. He did it before Russ. He's done it after us. And I think he's going to get the most out of that group. They've also got a bottom 10 strength of schedule. When you look at projected win totals, one more, Ben, they were 29th in turnover EPA last year. Like if you're saying, Gino's not going to be as good this year, like maybe, but also, That's somewhere where the regression should help them out.

They come back more towards league average in terms of how turnovers help them or hurt them. So, yeah, I think I picked the Seahawks when we were doing our over-under favorites, and they were at eight and a half. And I'm like, I definitely like them over eight and a half. Initially, I had them second here as a wildcard team. But you know what? I'm like, let's go ahead. Let's take a swing.

I've got the Seahawks winning the division. What did I miss? You missed the like the headline, right? like the Buzzy line, which is the Seahawks quarterback is the best in the division, right? They're probably not better than Stafford, but there's better than what the Niners got, right? Like, I, like, fundamentally when I start this exercise, I start with how much do I trust the quarterback? And I think that Gino's season, last season, does not smell funky. Like, he was successful in the big boy ways.

I think Shane Waldron's got the goods, too, by the way. I think Shane Waldron's got the gas. Like, I would not be surprised if that's one of your big head coach. conversation dudes as we approach this this upcoming off season. I think the offensive line is solid, is steady. I think they've got the five across the board that you need to not be a problem. And then weapons-wise, yeah, I mean, like the Jackson-Smith and Jigba injury sucks, but I don't think it's going to impact them super too much long-term, right?

So I really trust this offense. I think what this offense can do is reliable. And I think they're protected for injury. And they're deep, and I think they can beat you in a variety of ways because they can run the ball well and throw the ball well, and they have different weapons. Like, it's really hard for me to not have, like, top 10 expectations for this offense, the turnover point being a big part of that point. And then defensively, sure, like, you've got your doubts.

But I will say, like, Rick Wollin, the return of Jamal Adams, or Cheninuosu, like, they have some playmakers. Like, they have some, they impact guys, like, guys who are challenging to deal with from an offensive perspective. They got to fill the holes, right? They got to fill some gaps. Linebacker, I think, is a question mark right now. Bobby Wagner, how many, how much legs does he have left?

defensive tackle is a big spot where an improvement extra Dremont Jones could go a long way. But they have impact players. And players, I think, have the ability to win games for them because Rik Wall and could take away an opposing dude. Chenna-A-Wosu can be a terror for four quarters. And that, to me, makes the Seahawks like a very legitimate playoff team, a very legitimate, like, bet the over team.

Once you introduce my doubts with the Niners, it just made sense that they would be the team to win the division. I have them doing it with 11 wins. All right. So we've both got the Seahawks at 11 wins, our producer, Christopher Sutton, big Seahawks fan, is very happy about this prediction. The San Francisco 49ers, I've got them with the same record as the Seahawks, but I've got the Seahawks winning the tie break. I've got them at 11 and 6, so why did I ultimately say, you know what, I'm going to bump them down and go with the Seahawks?

It just goes to what you said. Like, their QB room went from Jimmy G to maybe a Tray Lance with some promise to maybe this plucky rookie and Brock Purdy to now Brock Purdy to now Brock Purdy. with eight starts under his belt and Sam Darnold in an offense where the quarterback's gotten injured, like every year? Now, I'm not saying that might be because of the offense. It might not be because of the offense. But I don't know. Like, I absolutely see the ceiling.

I will say the 49ers and were the third team I was talking about at the top of the show. And I said there are three teams that I absolutely believe can win the Super Bowl from the NFC. The 49ers were the third team there. The two other plucky teams, I said, where if you want to get spicy and say they've got a shot, to me, we're the Seahawks and the Lions. I think those are the five. I've got the three and then kind of a gap and then the other two. Where do you stand with that, Ben?

Just that idea of which of these teams can actually win the Super Bowl. Yeah, to me, I have it as four. I'd be really, really, really surprised if the Lions won it. I'd love it. I would live for it. Can you imagine a Lions Super Bowl? Can you imagine the deranged things that Dan Campbell would say? I guess I should say get to the Super Bowl.

Yeah, it's hard for me to see them beating an AFC team, but who knows, once you get there. Yes. but in general, I, yeah, like, I think when people go, like, oh, man, Eagles, Cowboys, Niners, and then who else in the NFC? Like, clear top three, the NFC, who's the fourth best? Like, I've seen a lot of, like, who's the fourth best roster in the NFC on Twitter?

I'm like, y'all are not looking at the depth charts, man. The Seawks team can play. Seattle, like, and that's the other thing. Like, we haven't said this word enough, probably, when we've been talking about our contenders. Seattle's deep. Seattle's got guys, right? Like the wide receiver room has the ability to sustain injury, right?

Like all Jake Bobo hype notwithstanding, right? They have guys in like Dorek Young, who they drafted last year who's got promised to him. They have Kate Johnson, Cody Thompson, who have for a couple years who are solid players. They have Stone Forsyth who can play along the offensive line. They drafted two dudes, Anthony Bradford, and Olu, Oluwatimi out of Michigan, the center, who was good. In the secondary, they have Kobe Bryant and Trey Brown, Julian Love, all just sitting there, just waiting, right? second air, pass rusher. You know, they drafted Boy Amoffey,

Chenin Wosu, but they still have Daryl Taylor in the building. They had Derek Holes, the second round pick. Like, they got guys where Seattle can not just win. They can take some injuries and sustain. And then you have Pete Carroll, the coaching advantage. I think any presentation of the NFC as a three-horse race is grossly underestimating how good this Lions team. Excuse me, this Seahawks team is.

A little Freudian slip there on the Lions. Yeah. I still see a gap. I mean, you were naming a lot of names. I think the secondary is deep. I think that is absolutely true with the Seahawks. The other areas, I'm not sure. They've got guys.

They've got young guys. Maybe they develop them. Maybe they don't. But I don't look at that roster and think, all right, this roster is different or better than the other one. So I still think it's three. And I would put the Seahawks there as kind of the sleeper team. But I mean, that's really the thing with the Niners. Like Shanahan's been there for six years.

Three years, they've had a below average offense. And usually that's because you look at it and go, well, who was playing quarterback? Well, yeah, that's the point. I mean, if they underachachians, this year. Who was playing quarterback? Wait, what was their quarterback plan? Did Purdy get injured? Did Purdy, you know, declined? Did they put too much stock at eight starts of Brock Purdy?

Like, these are all valid questions. If you said this about any other, like, non-Shannahanahan coach team, I was thinking earlier, did it be a pen? Like, what other team could you say, Brock Purdy and Sam Donald, they're one of the top three Super Bowl contenders? We would, no one would, with this offensive line, no one would even be having that conversation. So it actually speaks to what we think about, Shanahanahana, that we think that, yes,

They can be, but at the same time, that doesn't mitigate all those risks. I think that come with it. So we know the supporting cast is great. McCaffrey, Samuel, I, you kiddle, there's no doubt about it. If this is a top eight offense at the end of the season, I will not blink. But I do think they kind of leave me with more doubts than the other contenders we've talked about today. Yeah. The thing is, in three of the last four seasons, the Niners have gone to the NFC championship game.

And so it's really hard to say. They're not going to be, they're not going to win their division, right? That just feels silly. But with that said, defensively, they've had two coordinator changes at this point. And there's going to be attrition, right? You're a inherently getting older and B, you're inherently inviting variance, right? Steve Wilkes is outside of the tree. And while I largely think Steve Wilkes is going to be good, not bad, again, you're inviting

invariance. You're inviting risk. That's one. Two, in those three of the four seasons, they had Jimmy for the majority of those seasons, right? Like, obviously last year, they aimed at that incredible Brock Purdy run. AKA the Christian McCaffrey run, but Jimmy was still like the leading snap getter at quarterback. Like he was still like the guy they had for the dominant part of the season.

You're entering a world without Jimmy. And usually when they have a world without Jimmy, they're Nick Mullins and C.J. Bethard and they're a six-win team. They have a lot more faith in Brock, which is fine. But I think that might be a little too much faith in Brock. And I'm not sure that the better quarterback isn't the guy who's currently QB2. And I'm not sure that Sam Donald is a division winning champion, man.

I mean, it's a, it's a very, very, very thin eye of the needle. And like, if he, if Shanahan threads it, that's great. That's so awesome. Like, that's unbelievable. He's legit one of one. But also,

we're not going to be picking him to win games in the divisional round and the conference championship round if he's walking in with Brock Prydon and Sam Donald. And that's the problem with this contract, this way he's able to get good offenses out of these bad quarterbacks. And so I think that some doubt on the Niners, overall build this year is fair, even despite the recent success they've had in the past few years. Darnell is really the ultimate test. I mean, statistically, over the last five years,

among quarterbacks who have thrown like a thousand passes, he's last in both success rate and EPA per pass play. Like, legitimately has been the worst. Among the quarterbacks who have actually played, he has been the worst quarterback statistically. If he comes in and wins games with the 49ers and plays well, I mean, I don't think a lot of people question Kyle Chanion's offensive prowess anyway, but maybe that's just why Shane Anns is like, you know, it's like you shoot the free throw with the left hand or something with your eyes close just to see if you can do it. I don't know. Everybody says, oh, the Niners traded, Trey Lance, the third overall pick. They lost him. There's still a third overall pick

a quarterback on this roster, baby. Sammy! All the physical tools in the world, Sam Darnold, live arm, good, you know, good size, whatever. I've long been a darnal disbeliever. didn't love him coming out. And, yeah, like, last in EPA, last success rate, it makes sense. He's chaos back there. I recently rewatch some of the Brock film because I was working on the Trey Lance thing. Dude, I do not understand how they talk to themselves into this. I mean, like, he is, it's a paper tiger.

Like, he's chaos back there the same way Sam is. He's chaos back there the same way Sam is. He's just smaller with a worse arm. I don't get it. I am so worried about Kyle. Shanahan's mental health this season with this quarterback room. I'm terrified. I mean, his eight start

stretched last year is like 500 times better than Sam Darnold has ever done in his entire career. So we'll see. All right. So where do you have the nine? What did you say? How many wins? Are they a wildcard team for you or no? Are they out? Yeah, so they're a wildcard team for me. I have them at 10 and 7.

Okay. Now, a 10-win nineers team that makes it into the NFC playoffs as a six seed is going to win like two games. They're going to beat somebody. It's going to be so annoying. So, like, I, like, I end up having the Seahawks as a two-seed with an 11-win record, which,

like, that just feels top seat turby. It feels backwards. This, the Eagles and the Cowboys are the two best team in the division. Period. All right. Let's finish with the Rams and Cardinals and now let's get to that playoff bracket. I've got the Rams six and 11. Part of me wanted to say people are being too harsh on the Rams.

They were still 23rd in offensive DVOA last year with that, with no talent, with the most injured offensive line. I'm like, maybe they'll bounce back a little bit this year. You look at the roster and I just don't know how you get there. I mean, they have three players, Matthew Stafford, Cooper Cup, and Aaron Donald. You look at the defensive depth chart. Seven of the 10 players who logged 400 plus snaps last year are gone. There's just a huge talent problem. Maybe some young players step up, but like I'm not going to sit here and predict that that's

going to happen. Offensively, if Cooper Cup misses any time, look at like who are, who is Matthew Stafford throwing the football too. Who's making plays on this offense? I think the line will be better just because they can't be as bad as they were last year. I still don't think they're going to be good. So six and 11 is kind of me giving McVeigh the benefit or the doubt. I almost feel like they could be worse than they would be. I do feel like they would be worse than that with another coach.

What do you have for the Rams? Yeah, I'm as a five-win team. I can't get Trevor Lawrence or excuse me not Trevor Lawrence, Matthew Stafford and Sean McVeigh to have that bad of a team. I can't get them lower than a five-win team, but oh, buddy, I tried. Oh, buddy, am I tempted?

This roster is shockingly young and very unproven. And I don't want to say bad, because we don't know, but it's not likely that it's good. It's a lot more likely to it's bad. It's an interesting thing because, like, I also don't know where McVeigh's head is at, right?

Like McVeigh, they lost a lot of games last year and it really wore on him. It really broke him up. I don't know what it's going to look like if this team starts losing games. Like if they're going to remain stable, if they're going to have massive overhaul, if there's going to be coaching staff changes, like they are extremely volatile. The same is true for the quarterback who just like, if you could choose two injuries for your quarterback not to have, it would be elbow and back, maybe shoulder.

He's got two of the top three injuries, Matthew Zaffer does on the list of don't let this happen to your quarterback. and he's still going to play the same way, I presume, where he's sitting in a pocket behind a really bad offensive line and taking shots after shots or shocks. That's what he does. I'm concerned. I'm very worried about this Rams team.

They are one of the hardest teams in leave for me to figure out because my heart, excuse me, my head looks at them and goes like, they're going to win one game. But then my heart doesn't think that's possible, and I can't square how I feel about those two separate ideas. 35-year-old immobile quarterback with injuries playing behind a bad offensive line with one guy to throw the football. both Hill, man. I don't know that you need to go any deeper than that. Cardinals,

Cardinals I have. And Jefferson Slander, and I will not hear it. You know, I think, like, yeah, there's a chance McVeigh at the end of the year. It's like, you know what? I kind of wanted to step out last year and I probably should have just kind of taken the break at that point, done broadcasting for a little bit, and then come back in the league. I look at the roster, I go, wait, why did he come back? Why did he convince himself to come back here? This is not the roster to come back to, Sean. You could have just. It's been broadcasting games. We'll see.

Maybe he'll prove us wrong. Cardinals real quick. I've got them as the worst team in the NFC, worst team in the NFL. I've got them three and 14. Maybe Kyler comes back earlier than I think and proves me wrong, but I think without him, worst offense.

I think they've got the worst defense. I think they've got the worst quarterback situation when he's injured, and I don't think the coach is going to be very good. I don't know what else I can really say about that. Caleb Williams, Drake May, if you're a Cardinals fan, slot out some time on Saturdays to, watch those guys. What's the, what's the first game you have them winning? I, do you think I've looked at the Cardinal schedule? I'm not a sickle like you. Oh, I thought, why would I do that to myself?

You coming out with these numbers, I thought, like, I'd use like the actual like season long simulator projection thing. No, so I'll tell you what I do, just so I don't want the audience to be like this guy's a fraud right now. So what I do is after I do my breakdowns for each team, then I assign them a record. I put all the records into a spreadsheet and then I see what all the wins add up to, what are the losses add up to? And so I do have the same number of wins and losses, you know, because I don't want,

you can't have that on even. Then what are you doing here? But no, I don't do every, I don't pick every single game and do it that way. So good job, buddy. I don't know how to run a simulation.

They didn't teach that one. You got to playoffpringers.com. You ain't been in the same. And what, I have to pick every game? Yes. They show you home in a way, and they show you who has a rest advantage.

It's very handy. Yes. Okay. Well, that sounds cool. I'll admit it. But I'm not going to do it. Let's play the game.

I'm going to go through the Cardinal schedule. You tell me win or lost. This does not seem like a good use of our time. It takes 30 seconds. All right, go. All right. Add commanders. Loss.

Home Giants. Actually, no win. Win. Win. Sorry, sometimes the horrible teams. They win in week one. That's what happens. You have the Cardinals at 1 and 0.

Yeah, yeah. That's what happens. The horrible teams win week one. Okay, this is huge because on Fandall sportsbook, you can bet last winless team. Last winless team. And currently the huge favorite to be the last winless team is the Arizona Cardinals.

So you're telling me you have an advantage here. Wait, no, hold on. Flip-flop it again. Loss. They can't block those guys. I'm what I'm talking about. All right. Loss at the command.

So now, right, now we keep it going. Home Giants. Loss. Home Cowboys. Loss. At Niners. Loss. Home Bengals.

Loss. At Rams? At Rams? No, loss. At Seahawks. Loss. Home Ravens. Loss.

At Browns. Where am I getting these three weeks? At Browns. Home Falcons? Win! Oh, you're terrible. You're dastardly. That's just for you.

The 0 and 9 Cardinals beating the Falcons who beat 10. I would never. And I'll never let you hear the end of it, by the way. All right. Keep going. There you go. So that's one.

Oh, is that all we're doing? Okay. I wanted to see. I asked where the first Cardinals went in. For me, it's week 11 when they're at the Texans. That's where I gave them their first win. after starting 0-N-10. I could see that.

This team doesn't have a buy until week 14. They're not going to be able to circle the wagons. They're just going to be losing and losing and losing. And losing there's going to be no way to stop the bleeding. It'll be so bad. All right. All right. So our playoff seating.

Do you have your one through seven? I've got Eagles as my one seat. Seahawks as my two seat. Lions as my three seed. Panthers as my four seed. Cowboys five, 49ers, six. Packers, seven. So I've got three new playoff teams in the NFC this year, the Lions, the Panthers, and the Packers.

I've got three new division winners this year, the Seahawks, the Lions and the Panthers. Give me yours. Recap yours. Yeah, Eagles one seed. I said Seahawks 2 seed. Wasn't ready for that. Me too. Lions 3 seed. Falcons 4 seed.

Cowboys 5 seed. Niners, six seed. And then the Packers bringing it up as the 7 seed. So we have six of the seven same team. How did this happen? We don't agree on anything, and now we've got six of the seven same NFC teams. We only disagree on the NFC. Here's what we agree on.

Buccaneers, bad, bears, bad, buddy's bad. We can scratch them off, no problem. It's where they shake out at the top. That's what confuses us. You know what? That's probably true. I bet we agree about a lot of the top teams and a lot of the bad teams and the middle teams is probably where we argue the most.

I don't know. All right. So here's what I've got for my wild card round, Benny Souls. I've got the Seahawks. beating the Green Bay Packers, the 49ers beating the Detroit Lions, and the Cowboys beating the Carolina Panthers. So my final four in the NFC is Eagles, Seahawks, 49ers, Cowboys, the four teams you said could get to the Super Bowl.

What do you got? Yeah, I have the two wild cards winning. I have the Cowboys as a five-seat beat in the Falcons, and then I have the Niners as a six-seat beat in the three-seated Lions. again, I love them lions, but I don't know. And then the Seahawks as the two-seed beating the seven-seated Packers, that gives you, yeah, the same four teams. I think it's Eagles Cowboys and Niders and Seahawks.

It's shocked, baby. I think the AFC is going to be different for us. All right, divisional round. I've got the Eagles beating the San Francisco 49ers, and I've got the Cowboys beating the Seattle Seahawks, setting up an NFC championship game with the Dallas Cowboys travel to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles.

What do you got? I got the Dallas Cowboys beating the Seattle Seahawks and I got the Philadelphia Eagles beat in San Francisco 49ers. I've got Eagles Cowboys one seed five seed for your NFC championship game. I will say Niners Eagles playoff game is going to be something just because they play in the regular season and we'll see what the result of that is. But obviously there's a lot of animosity, playoff animosity between these two teams.

I would look at that for a long time and I was like, Would the Niners just win this? Just because they would want to make a point that they should have won it? Would it just be like a revenge game? It's not even the right terminology for it. But yeah, I ended up with Eagles Cowboys in the NFC championship game. Kyle Shanahan is going to call Philip Rivers, Tom Brady, Michael Vic. He's going to dress eight quarterbacks for that game before going to Philadelphia.

All right. Well, who do you got Eagles or Cowboys in the NFC Championship game, Ben? I picked the Cowboys. I'm an Eagles fan. so I can't pick the Eagles. You can't do that, right? That's bad. I mean, like,

it's very rare to see a repeat. And, like, that sticks in the back of my head. The Cowboys are extremely talented. I think that, and I think that Dak Prescott, if you go and you look at, like, actual playoff performance has been actually a quite good quarterback in January. It just hasn't gotten paid off for it. I am acutely aware of the Mike McCarthy effect on playoff games

and playoff teams and playoff moments. I clicked the Cowboys button on the playoff simulator because that felt like the safe thing to do as an Eagles fan. I didn't feel good about it. I remain not feeling good about it. I resent the fact that I'm being made to choose. I'm shocked. I've got the Eagles.

Eagles beating the Cowboys in the NFC Championship game. It is rare. One time in the last 20 years has a Super Bowl loser gotten back to the Super Bowl. I didn't want to go into the exercise picking them. just going team by team. Who do I feel good about? I couldn't get there with McCarr. It's really all these trends that are like working against the teams you want to pick.

I mean, the Cowboys haven't gotten past the divisional round in what 27 years. So it's like, all right, well, that's not great. That hasn't gotten past the divisional round in seven years as a starter. The 49ers, I couldn't get there with Purdy and Darnold, you know, going on the road in my in my theoretical playoff bracket here and winning a playoff game. I couldn't get there, quite get there with the Seahawks or the line. lion. So I've got the Eagles coming out of the NFC. Ben's got the Cowboys coming out of the NFC. There you go. We will do the AFC in the next episode and then we will pick our Super Bowl winners. How do you think that went? I'm surprised. I'm surprised at how I really didn't think we were going to agree on this many teams. I knew we disagreed on the NFC South champ and I figured there was some more there was going to be another one there. But who knows? Maybe we, you know, this is what happens when you talk to someone. for this amount of minutes every week.

Maybe you just start thinking the same. Is that, what's it called, Hive Mind? Are we having that? But that thing is like, I don't even think we're thinking the same, right? Like, we were like, Seahawks. I was like, okay, well, you, like, I think about it this way. That's true. Lions was the same thing, right?

There was some similarities, but then whatever. I just think the NFC is fairly cut and dry. Like, I think it's really hard to argue that the top four teams and the NFC aren't the top four teams. And then after that, like, you and I definitely are both a little bit on the Packers. And then someone's got to come out of the South and we kind of discreet on that. And that's that's where it lands, right? That's where it stands.

So, no, I'm not too surprised. AFC, like you said, AFC will be a mess for sure. Who is the team we did not pick to make the playoffs that could make us look the dumbest, like maybe be the one or two seed in the NFC by the time the playoffs roll around where we're like, hey, can we just bury that preview that we did? Because we can't, you know, this fan base is just tweeting at us nonstop with clips of how stupid we sounded in late August about their team.

Which team is that? Saints, right? Want me to give you the candidates? I think it's the Saints or I think it could be the Bears if they hit their ceiling. That's possible. I thought we were pretty careful that. That's true. Yeah, we were maybe that's true.

Who are we mean to that could do it? Probably is the Saints. Buccaneers? No, come on. What do you? That's, I mean, if that happens, I will, I will wear full denim. How about that? If the Buccaneers make the playoffs, I mean, and I have no issue with denim,

Although I haven't won a jean jacket since I was like eight years old. I do have a photo of that somewhere. But I will dress in full denim. Ben, I don't know, we'll figure out something for him to dress in. All right, that was a fun episode. Thank you to everyone for listening. I think you'll get Nora and Stephen on the next episode. And then Solac and I, I feel like, will argue a lot on the next episode when we go through the AFC same exercise there.

Thank you to Ben. Thank you to Christopher Sutton for producing. production, supervision by Connor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgopal. We will talk to everyone later this week on extra point taken. Must be 21 plus and present in select states. Fanduel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC. Gambling problem. Call 1-800 gambler or visit fanduel.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, and Virginia.

Call 1-800 next step or text next. step 2533442 in Arizona, 1-887-8-8-8-9-7-7-7. Or visit CCPpG.org slash chat in Connecticut, 1-8009 with it in Indiana, 1-800-2-2-2-4-7-0. Or visit KSgamblinghelp.com in Kansas, 1-8777-7-7-0. In Louisiana, visit MD gamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Visit 1-800 gambler.net in West Virginia or call 1-8005-22-470. in Wyoming, Hope is here.

Visit gambling helpline, MA.org, or call 800, 327, 50-50 for 24-7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-8778-8-Hope-N-Y or text HopeN-Y

or text Hope N-Y in New York.