The Ringer NFL Show - Predicting the Player and Coach Awards for the 2023 NFL Season | Extra Point Taken

Episode Date: August 21, 2023

Sheil and Ben get together to use the odds and their insights to discuss and predict the major player and coach award winners for the upcoming NFL season, including: MVP: (2:17) Offensive Player of the Year: (11:43) Defensive Player of the Year: (25:47) Offensive Rookie of the Year: (37:07) Defensive Rookie of the Year: (53:21) Coach of the Year: (57:32) Finally, they end the pod by sharing the surprise teams they believe will and won’t make the playoffs this year (1:11:32). The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming, please check out theringer.com/RG to find out more or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Sheil Kapadia and Ben Solak Associate Producer: Chris Sutton Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Musical Elements: Devon Renaldo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, it's your boy Johnny Bananas, and I'm going to be covering a brand new season of the Challenge USA on CBS that, of course, I will be completely dominating on my podcast, Death Taxes, and Bananas on the Ringer Reality TV podcast. Head over that feed and follow us on Spotify so you never miss an episode. Welcome to Extra Point Take and Shield Capadia, joined by Ben Solac, another episode on the Ring, NFL feed. We continue to go on the record, Benny Souls. And today, we're doing some award selections. We got MVP, coach of the year, all that stuff. How are you feeling? Do you have everything kind of nailed down? You feel good about your selections? Do you think we're going to have

duplicates? Do you think we're going to be yelling at each other in eight minutes? What are your predictions just for this episode? Easiest part of the year. Imagine not having already bet on MVP and coach of the year. And office a rookie of the year. And office a rookie of the year. the air and defense of the ring of the air. We just, we just scroll them through the fan to a wallet and saying, oh, yep, this is who I think is an MVP. That's who it is. Right. Good reminder. Well, good, because you're going on the road this afternoon. So I'm glad that you didn't have to do. You know, you're like, I got this. This one's going to be easy. I've had my picks ready since April. So that'll be good. And at the end, Ben, I was thinking, I didn't tell you this,

but I think for the extra point taken, I think today's the day we pick our team. You know, I think it's gone long enough. I've been thinking about it. It's narrowed down. I think we have to come to a decision at the end of today's show. What do you think? I have also, I've internally come to a decision. I know who I will be advocating for our team. I realize that over the course this weekend. Okay. Well, I'm notoriously indecisive. So as long as it's like one of three teams that I'm okay with, I'll be more than happy to just let you make the final decision there. So we'll do that in the final segment. All right. Let's get started. Now, do you want to start with, do we start with MVP or do we end with MVP? Is there suspense or not really? Should we just start with the

biggest one? It's start with MVP. I feel like all the awards are interesting. It's not like it's like, you know, stabbing in the darkest who wins MVP is that much different than stabbing in the dark to who wins Stevens a rookie of the year. I agree. All right.

Let's start with MVP. Go ahead. Give us your choices now. So the listeners, no, we're not just going to be like, all right, you know, the favorite is our pick. Well, we're going to look at some of the fan dual odds. We're going to go down the list a little bit. Say, hey, we like this guy.

But if you're looking for a sleeper, this guy might be good. So who do you have or what was your kind of process for who you think is going be the MVP this year? Last year, my longest bet on MVP was Trevor Lawrence at 50 to 1. This year, one of my biggest bets for MVP is Trevor Lawrence at 16 to 1, which is currently there on Fandall. I imagine this is one that you have as well. Connor Allen at Connor Allen NFL was a wonderful gambling follow on Twitter.

If you're into learning about that sort of stuff, he works for football. I had a great tweet. How to bet on NFL MVP, qualifications. quarterbacks have won MVP in the last 16 years. So as much as I would love to get up here and be like, Christian McCaffrey is extremely valuable to his team. If he plays for 17 games, the Niners win a bunch of games with Brock Party, da-da-da-da.

But a quarterback is winning MVP. It's just a quarterback-driven league. Every quarterback MVP, this is Connor Allen again, has won 11-plus games, and every MVP since 2010 has had a pre-season win total of 8.5 or more. So what those two lines are telling us is, every quarterback who wins MVP has a team that, the beginning of the season we think is going to be at least pretty good.

And then that team ends up really good. I also, if memory serves, it's like 18 of the last 20 MVPs have been on teams in which they won the division, right? So I'm looking for a quarterback of a division winning team that's going to win a lot of games. Let me add a couple more before you, you get, because I was doing the same research. Yeah, so the past 10 seasons, it's gone to the QB.

And not only division winner, Ben, it's gone to the QB of the one or the two seed each of the past 10 seasons. So not only do you win your division, but you have to be one of the top two teams in your conference. And you mentioned 11 wins nine times in the last 10 seasons. The team has had 12 wins or more. So this is very much like best, you know, most important position, best player on one of the best teams.

Like that is the award for, you know, to go to what you're saying there. So let's do it. We all think the Jags were in the division because the AFC South is pretty weak, right? The Jags have been easier than average schedule by strength of schedule e-vails from Warren Sharp. The Jags would have qualified for all this last year if they didn't start two and freaking seven, which again, as somebody who had a Trevor Lawrence MVP ticket, I was very dialed in on the Jags start to the season and finish to the season. It's reasonable to expect them to be a double-digit win team this year.

They're a 9.5 win total at Fandle right now. So if you have an above average jags season, 11 win jags, 12 win jags, they're pushing for the AFC one or two C. They're at that 11 win threshold. And you start to sit down and doling out, okay, who are we going to give credit to here? Right. Like, who are we going to acknowledge with awards? The window for Doug Peterson coach of the year was last year.

And they didn't hit it, right? We'll get to coach here in a little bit, but it's very rare that a coach who's been there for multiple seasons wins the award. Well, he also is the same quarterback that he's had in previous seasons. It's usually a new coach or a new quarterback award. So I think it's much more likely that Trevor Lawrence gets the nod. Now, Lawrence is not the name that Mahomes is, the name that Alan is, the name that Hertz is, all those guys are above him on the market.

But the league tends to like newness. They tend to like not having repeat MVPs and giving the, you know, when it's a bit of a tie, when it's a bit close trying to find the new guy to give it to, because it's a narrative award. And I think that Lawrence vaunting himself into the upper echelon, that top tier of AFC quarterbacks, those young defining guys next generation is something that I'm willing to eat up. MVP voter or not, right? And so I think Trevor Lawrence was one of my most fun bets for MVP last year. I'm going back to the well this year. I wish I could go against you and tell you your nuts and tell you all the reasons. We got a lot of awards here. You're going to go against me at some point.

We're going to get to that. All right. I had Lawrence written down also. He's my favorite. Now, listen, Patrick Mahomes, you could pick him. Really, you could pick Mahomes, Alan Burrow, like any season. And I wouldn't tell you, you're nuts. Those are the three favorites in terms of odds. plus 600 plus 700 and plus 900. But I think you made the case well for Lawrence. He's 23 years old. He was a top 10 quarterback last year. They were a top 10 offense last year.

That was his first season with Doug Peterson. They add Calvin Ridley in the off season. And here's another thing, man. I think there's a chance their defense really stinks this year. And if that's the case, like they're just going to be passing the football more and having to win some shootouts and like the counting stats, which I know that's not all we go by anymore. but I think the counting stats with him have a very high ceiling for that reason. So, you know, I'm not sure can they get to a one or two seat. I'm not going to predict that, but would you tell

me, hey, that's within the range of outcomes for them? I would say yes. I mean, that division could be just absolutely horrendous where they could just be stacking up wins. And I think they can compete with some of the best teams on their schedule. So I like Lawrence quite a bit for that as well. The other guy I was looking at was Jalen Hertz. I was actually surprised. that his odds were, you know, kind of a step down below Mahomes, Burrow, and Herbert. He's at plus 1,200. And when I was just looking at the qualifications, I'm like, could the Eagles be a 1 or 2 seat? Yes, it's the NFC. They absolutely could win 11 or 12 games. He made the big leap last year, but he was second in MVP voting. I think to be as efficient of a runner this year as he was last

year, that's probably not going to happen. But also, I think he could be better as a passer. I mean, He didn't have like a big outlier season in terms of passing statistics last year. And remember, they had blowouts in the fourth quarter of a lot of those games where he wasn't piling up these counting stats. And if you look at stuff like EPA per play, he was top 10, but he wasn't like top five. So I actually still think there's room for growth there for jail and hurt. So he was the other name that I looked at there. I like Lawrence.

I like Hertz. If you told me, hey, shield, your house is on the line. Who are you going? I would probably just go with Mahomes. but, you know, to go on a podcast and say or pick for MVP is Mahomes, that's not very fun. Who wants to do that? So that's kind of how I looked at the whole landscape. Was there anyone else you wanted to get to before we get to the next award?

Yeah, I have Lamar. Lamar you get at plus 1,600, which is a similar price to Trevor Lawrence at Fandall. Lamar's won the MVP, and I'm getting him, like, at the price of Tua, DAC and Trevor. That's just too low a price. Like, this will be the most pass-happy offense that Lamar's played in since he got into the league. Not for nothing, but like, I have never had the largest preseason exposure I've ever had to an individual player in my four years of betting is Lamar Jackson overs this year walking into the season. Like his passing yards are priced as if he doesn't know how to throw the football, which is just not accurate. I think he's going to throw up more than 4,000 yards.

I think there's a shot that he's pushing 1,000 rushing yards again. I think that he has a chance to be like 30 plus rushing touch or actually made 30 35 plus passing touchdowns so another five rushing touchdowns like we're looking at like again like a season where every single week it's like Lamar Jackson is the first player through 12 weeks of the season to do la mar Jackson is the first player through 13 weeks of the season right it's just like graphics for for accounts you know

and so the high tail on the Ravens just if all this coalesces to me makes Lamar MVP a worthy bet and then the third guy that I would like a better number on. And I'm honestly, I, you brought up the fact that Jamie Hertz is below

Justin Herbert. I was very surprised by that. I thought I was going to get a cheaper number on Justin Herbert and I wanted to take it. At plus 900, whereas I'm out on Fandle right now, I think that's the correct price.

But Herbert is like, you know, bad coach to good coach theory, right? We all think this guy is the guy. You and I both took Herbert to be MVP last year when we did this.

And Joe Lombardi offense just was so problematic for a myriad of reasons. And Quinn Johnson put it in a new offensive coordinator. If Herbert's the guy that we think he is, that he should be pushing for this award in terms of production, right?

I don't know if he makes the division winner. I don't know if he makes the double digit win total, so on and so forth. But in terms of production, raw, passing talent, he should be up there. So I've looked at Herbert. I didn't take Herbert. Lawrence and Lamar are the two that I've got big exposure on. I also have a Josh Allen ticket because Allen shouldn't be less than Mahomes. They should be

equal, but that's not a fun one. That's just a lame one. Yeah, I'm a little more hesitant on Lamar in this offense being good right away. I just think there's so much turnover, two new wide receivers, a new offensive coordinator, a new scheme has missed five games in each of the past two seasons where I'm like, it wouldn't surprise me. You know, you mentioned it wouldn't surprise you.

It wouldn't surprise you if we're just like week seven and Lamar did it again. Like it wouldn't surprise me if it's like, you know, October the first or second week. And it's like, ooh, this Ravens' offense isn't exactly what we think it is, but then maybe they get it together and kind of progress. And after Thanksgiving, they start to really click. So that would be my hesitation there. And then Herbert, yeah, I'm just kind of tired of being burned by the Chargers. And the win thing, I mean, we'll get to our predictions in the in the weeks ahead.

But man, for them to, they could get to 11 or 12 wins. They, you know, they could be a top two seat. It's a top road. Yeah, I would say I'm not going to go out and be willing to bet that that's going to happen. All right. That is MVP. Next up, offensive player of the year. Let me hit you with some of my research on this one, Solac.

last 10 years, three wide receivers, three running backs, and four quarterbacks. Now, the last four years, it has not been a quarterback. My theory is that this has kind of just morphed into the, who's the best non-quarterback on offense award, where, you know, it didn't necessarily used to be that. So is there a scenario where like, you know, Lamar or Josh Allen or Justin Fields, they put up like these crazy dual threat numbers and they don't win MVP or they don't have team success and they win this award. Yes, that's possible. But just when I was looking at, well, who do I like? Who would I want to pick here? I'm leaning more towards a non-quarterback. How do you kind of view this one? I think like there's an intuitive divide between

quarterbacks who they would give the offensive player of the year award to and quarterbacks, they just like wouldn't. Like, let's say it's a really tight MVP race. Just two quarterbacks are playing outside of their mind, clearly cut above everybody else. And it's Trevor Lawrence and Patrick Mahomes. if they give the MVP to Trevor, they ain't give an offensive player at the year, Mooms. There's just no need. There's no reason.

He throw that in the trash. Right, be the dumbest Wikipedia bullet point anybody's ever seen, right? So I think there's that. Like, I can see a Lamar getting it because of right, the dual threat thing and the rushing thing. And, you know, like, again,

if it's between Lamar and another extremely talented officer is not a quarterback, they're going to give Lamar an MVP and then that number is going to get an officer to the year. So it's a really thin bet. I don't think we're done with quarterbacks as offensive players of the year, I just think it's hard to find the spots.

It's not something that you can like see from the preseason coming out. You just have to, yeah, it's in those circumstances where there's no, you know, like a record setting skill position player and there's also just two really good quarterbacks. And like that's just not something you see in August. So it's not something that I like to bet. The favorite for this one, Ben, is Jamar Chase at plus 1100. That kind of surprised me. I have a sort of boring one and then I have a sleeper.

Let me hit you with the boring one. I mean, Justin Jefferson is plus 1,400. That, to me, was like, wait, plus 1,400. He's not, he's not the favorite. Just looking up at the historic numbers for Justin Jefferson, first three years in the league for a wide receiver, he's got 662 more yards than any other player in NFL history through their first two seasons, 662 more yards than Randy Moss, who is number two. Like, that's wild.

And I don't really see a big reason why his number. would come down this season. You know, they added Jordan Addison, but Adam Thielen had 107 targets last year. Like, Jordan Addison can take those Adam Thielen targets, and Justin Jefferson can just be not effective. The Vikings' offense wasn't incredible last year. Like, you look at, you know, just a lot of their efficiency numbers. That was not a great offense.

That was more of a mediocre offense. So, again, that's a boring one. That's one of the favorites. But it wasn't so, you know, plus 1,400 wasn't so low where I'm like, I'm not even going to consider it. I was like, yeah, I think if push comes to shove, that would probably be my choice. What do you think? Who do you got?

Who is the last repeat offensive player of the year? I don't know. You think it was there one? There hasn't been one in the last 10 years. It was Marshall Falk who three-peated, 1999, 2000, and 2001. Yeah. Marshall just killing it for the Rams. I get like, it's an annoying thing, but it's very much a narrative award.

And if Justin Jefferson has as dominant, into the season that he had last season, then all he did was the same thing again. And if somebody else is at a richly high level of production, they're going to look to acknowledge that person over Jefferson, not rightfully, but it's a narrative award. That's my concern with it. That person would have to have more receiving yards.

Like, there would have to be a statistical case for that, right? Like, if he beats the other wide receiver in every statistical category, I don't think he's going to get dinged because he won it last year. Maybe I'm wrong. Yeah. Or they could be playing a different position. right, which opens that up a little bit. Which is so great.

So I agree with you that Jefferson, Jefferson should be the favorite. Chase, I struggle with, like, Chase being the favorite doesn't make sense to me. Because if Chase is that productive, Joe Burroughs winning MVP, like, I think just like, one. And two, if Chase is that productive, what happened to T. Higgins, right? Because there's just no way that Chase hits that level of production unless T's gone for the entire season. So you're betting on like a huge injury in a huge absence. And then on Joe Burrow, who's like a really good. ball distributor not being that to make Chase so prolific while also not winning it.

It's just tricky for me. So I do think like Justin Jefferson has kind of earned the spot up there. To me, Christian McCaffrey at plus 1400 is, was the immediate bet. In a time in which running back has never been more devalued, the coach, Kyle Shanahan, who has proven beyond anybody else that he can just grab a quarterback, a running back off the street and do some stuff, went and traded substantial capital to go get this guy. and it dramatically and positively impacted the offense, right? As far as non-quarterbacks go,

there are a few offensive players in the league who are as significant of lynch pins, as big of keystones to their offense, as McCaffrey is to his. Now, McCaffrey, who obviously had an unbelievable, 2018, 2019, 2018. We had that one season where he had 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards,

did not win offensive player of the year that year, right? So he's never won the award. And I think is an extremely strong candidate to produce another 1,000. 1,000 season. He's going to be featured in the early down running game. Obviously, they have Elijah Mitchell and they like Elijah Mitchell, but they're going to hand this ball off to Christian McCaffrey.

And then he's going to be featured in the passing game as well. He's going to be a high caliber underneath target. No matter what quarterback plays for them, whether it's Brock, who showed a huge willingness to throw to McCaffrey down the stretch of last season or Sam Donald, who played with McCaffrey in Carolina. They're going to use him out of the backfield and in the slot as a traditional receiver. He's going to accumulate a ton of volume.

He's going to score a top. ton. This offense is going to be successful. They're going to push the ball down the field and he's going to get carries and short yardage touches. McCaffrey just screams a ton of production in offense that has so many yards, so many points for the taking just because of how prolific it is, how successful it is. McCaffrey, to me, is the chalky offensive player that I like.

It was 2019. Banana's numbers. 403 touches for 2,392 yards from scrimmage. and 19 touchdowns. Who won offensive? Why didn't he win offensive player at the year? This was,

because Michael Thomas set a record. Office of the player of the year goes to whoever sets a record. And Slamp Boy caught 84% of his targets and got, it was a player of the year. It was a crime.

Oh my gosh. Those are wild numbers. Yeah, McCaffrey last year with the Niners, 1,200 yards from scrimmage in 11 games. And I believe, like, his first game,

he didn't even get a lot of touches if memory serves there. So yeah, McCaffrey is one of those guys, like really for the next three years, I would say. If you believe he's going to be healthy, he absolutely could be in that mix. I was looking at Chase's numbers. I think the case for Chase is probably strong. I don't think he should be the favorite over Jefferson, but even his rookie season,

he had 1,455 yards his rookie season. And that was with T. Higgins healthy at the same time, that yards per reception is going to be tough to repeat. He had 18 yards per reception as a rookie. Then last year, we talked about this. Defenses play them differently. They say, we're not getting burned by the explosive plays. He only averages 12 yards per reception.

So you would think he probably settles in somewhere in between those two this year. But you're right. That's a lot fewer targets than somebody like Justin Jefferson. So that certainly will hurt him a little bit. My sleeper here, Ben, I think you might laugh at me for this one. How about Garrett Wilson at plus 2,500? I have bet on Garrett Wilson to win this award. Oh, nice.

Like for this season? Yeah. Gotcha. Okay. Listen, Aaron Rogers can invite as many ex-Green Bay Packers receivers to New York as he wants. We all know who's winning routes separating, creating explosive plays in this offense. It's Garrett Wilson. I had concerns about Garrett Wilson coming out as a prospect, and then as a rookie, you're watching him.

and he's doing all the stuff that you're worried about, taking too much time in his routes, footwork isn't correct. And just none of it matters, right? He just got that like, but I'm so much better than everybody else that I can do what I want to him, which is delightful.

It's a little bit concerning in terms of the marriage with Rogers, but again, I think that Rogers, for all of his posturing and all of his behavior and vibe, knows how to produce good passing games. And in New York, the answer is very simple. Let's throw the ball at 17,

about as much as I can. I think Wilson is going to get a ludicrous amount of production. I also think that, like, when I go to bet this award, I'm looking at rookie contract receivers, particularly, because teams are getting really good at making those guys produce, and they don't mind running those guys on the ground. They're not dealing with injuries yet, right? And so you just have, like, a ton of youth, ton of explosiveness.

They're healthy, and they can just take on all this volume. And so, typically, I'd be, like, worried about taking a guy this young, but with Wilson, like, even with the mitigating factors considered, he's such a dynamite talent, but, yeah, I bet it. I mean, the man, like, had over 1,100 yards with Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, and Mike White, and the most, like, one of the most injured offensive lines of the last 20 years. And now, like, even if the offensive line isn't great, but it's healthier. And now you have Aaron Rogers.

Yeah, I'm with you. I just think they're going to feel. And really, if they do have offensive line issues, like, he's not somebody who's just making plays downfield. Like, you can get him the ball yards after the catch, all that. So, yeah, I kind of, I wouldn't be surprised if Garrett Wilson leads the NFL in receiving yards or really puts up those kinds of numbers this year. I liked him there quite a bit. Can I toss my long shot at you?

Yeah, give it to me. It's Gary Wilson's teammate. Oh, it's Chris Hollave. It's the other Ohio State first round receiver that came out in that class. Chriselave right now is 50 to 1, which is too much. Baked into that 50 to 1 is an assumption that Michael Thomas is going to be healthy. and be the dominant target getter in New Orleans when he is. I am convinced of neither one.

I understand that Thomas is titularly entitled the first receiver, the wide receiver won when he's on the field. I do not believe he is more talented than Crystal Lave. And I think that the Saints saw enough from Crystal Lave last year that if all of a sudden, Derek Hark starts getting more targets than Crystal Lave, excuse me, Derek Carr starts giving more targets to Crystal Lave

than he does to Michael Thomas, they're not going to be like, oh, no, like slam the brakes. you got to reassess the offense. No, I think they're going to be just fine with that if that happens. Also, the thing that it has bigger legs here is Michael Thomas being on the field. Not a thing that I'm inclined to believe is going to happen with any consistency. He's at this point a very banged-up player, and we'll see what he looks like when he gets back out there. Olabe is just as Wilson was ludicrously talented.

It was so, so good last season. And you're getting him at that substantial discount because of Thomas. But when you go and you look at the offensive players that are winning this award, typically it's a very productive players on teams that make the playoffs, right? Like, I would love to come at you with like a huge Damian Pierce long shock. I think that like no one thinks Damian Pierce is going to carry the ball in Houston. I don't get that. I've got a lot of Damian Pierce exposure this year.

But the Texas doesn't make the playoffs, right? It's like Josh Jacobs last year, like incredible, whatever. Nobody cares enough about the Raiders to like really put their back into this guy winning off. It's a player of the year. Olae is the sort of guy where if the Saints are good in that universe where the Saints make the playoffs, Alave to me is a 1,200, 1,300 yard receiver. He's extremely productive in the red zone because he's such a good separator. And there are so many, so many targets to go around if there's no Thomas, right?

Like, there's Rashid and Joanne Johnson and A.T. Perry and Alvin Kamara, and they all, like, have roles, but I don't think Camara's a high tier target getter at this age. I think, like, Alave is like a 140 target guy if you don't see any Thomas this season. And that, to me, is like getting out of 50 to 1 is ludicrous. Love Chris Olive is your long shot for offensive player at the year. It wasn't even just the counting numbers were impressive, the efficiency numbers. You look at yards per route run. That was fantastic for him last year.

That was playing with Andy Dalton last year where we can debate how much of an upgrade is Derek Carr over Andy Dalton. I think he's an upgrade over him. And yeah, I think Olave is a... I think he is an upgrade. Yeah. You don't think he's a big upgrade? And upgrade, yes.

Okay. All right. We'll get to that when we talk about the Saints on our NFC prediction show. All right. Let's take a break. We'll come back. We'll get to defensive player of the year. Snap into action this NFL season with Fandul, America's number one sportsbook. Right now, new customers get $200 in bonus bets, guaranteed when you place a $5 bet. That's $200 in bonus bets, win or lose.

If you've been thinking about joining Fandul, there's no better time to get in on the action. Let's see, what's one of the futures I like? How about the Arizona Cardinals? under four and a half. I know it feels like a sucker bet, but you could have the worst offense and the worst defense in the entire NFL, even if they went three or four games. That's still a winner.

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bets that expire seven days after receipt restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook.fandul.com All right, we're back on extra point taken. You had another great vocabulary word there. What did you what did you say titularly? What was the? I was going to say titular like his like by title, the first receiver. But then I try to make it an adverb and I don't think you can do that with that word. Oh, you can't do that?

I was praising you. Tidularly is just, I think Tidular is a great word. Tidularly deserves to be reviewed. Now, we got good suggestions when we were asking for what should the names be for our listeners, ETT heads, extra pointers. Someone said, the specialists, I think. Someone said, but you got an email that I don't know if you remember. Let's make sure we give the person credit.

I think that we have a winner. And so if you are, we're going to get to the name in a second. but if you're one of these people who doesn't miss a show, listens to every minute, likes to yell at us. I do think there's some type of opportunity for like a Benny Souls' vocabulary word of the week. Like, I could review the oldest at the end of the season. It could be a real word.

It could be a fake word. I don't really care what it is. But you do have a wonderful vocabulary, a wonderful way with language. So I think that's something maybe we can work on. How you're looking? You got the email there? I have it.

Yes. Thank you for the excellent seven-second warning of me. you need to do this so I can pull it up. I do want to give out a quick silver medal. There was a great email we got where just the subject was extra point ticket, extra point taken nickname, and the body of the text was just kickers.

And then no, nothing else. Just no, no salutation, no departure. I like that efficiency. Yeah, thank you. That's what you be. But no, the shoutout goes to listener and friend of the pod.

Ryan, who said, good morning listening to Top 5 offense action point taken. You should call regular listeners expats, which is very smart. I like that a lot. Feels like we're a rebellion. Feels like we're a sovereign nation. I love that great deal. Also works with the name.

So for Ryan from Tulsa, thank you very much. You're the winner of this competition that had like three total entries. Yeah, the expats need to keep a Solac glossary. I agree. Expat. I like it. As long as that doesn't get, it doesn't, we don't want it to sound like where, you know, New England paid like where Bill Belichick's like,

children or something, right? People won't get confused by that, right? No, that would be the Pats. We're the expats. Former children. Okay. We've left to the family. I don't know. I don't know where I'm going with this. People, people are like, wow, these guys are the estranged sons of Bill Belichick. They're doing a football podcast. Then I think they're jack the numbers up, baby. Let's go. They're probably like, Shield's really mean to his dad. Geez, he's been ripping him all offseason long. All right. Defensive player of the year. Last 10 years. Ben, we have eight edge defenders slash defensive linemen.

So you can just put them in the group as pass rushers, eight out of ten were pass rushers. Just one cornerback. Can you name the cornerback in the last 10 years who won defensive player of the year? Stefan Gilmore, 2019. Please don't touch. Never, never. One off ball linebacker. Can you name who the offball linebacker was in the last 10 years?

This guy was such a great player. Kikley, Kikley, Kikley. Yeah, Kikley, amazing player. Lou Kikley. All right, good job. Good job. by you. I'm sorry. I forgot they did all this research in April as you were, again, getting bets down on every single one of these months before I even thought of it. So I shouldn't have even,

you know, questioned you there. All right. Who do you got? I think you said Michael Parsons in a previous episode. That would be the chalky pick. He is plus 450. He is the favorite. Is that who you like? But you have sleepers. Where are you at with this one? Yeah. So fundamentally, when I'm looking for defensive player of the year, I narrow my range to sack getters, right? That's the way to think about it, like a one-corner, one-off ball linebacker. This belongs to defensive linemen and like outside linebackers in kind of your, your older parlance. This is guys who rush the quarterback, whoever gets the guy down the most, congratulations, here's your award. The only way you don't do that is if you pick the ball off a ton, you generate a ton of

turnovers. And so like, you see Sauce Gardner with top six awards. To me, that's, that's not going to happen. And then Patrick Sturtan's like a top 20 option. Fred Warner's a top 20 option. I don't expect that to be the case. Parsons at plus 450, like Parsons is appropriately the favorite. That is way, way, way, way, way, way, way too much chalk. You should not be taking plus 450 on a preseason, season long bet. Make a little same game parlay, which, like, you shouldn't be making same game probably either.

But you can get plus 450 a lot of different ways on like regular in-season bets. You're exposing yourself to so much risk on a 17-17 game season. Parsons gets hurt. Somebody else's like plus 450, even plus 600 from Miles Garrett. those to me are generally not worth it. Like, if you're going to do season long, you need to be looking at longer odds. The two names of the top that I like are Nick Bosa at plus 1,200. Bosa right now is in a contract situation with the 49ers.

It is questionable when he gets to camp. I do not think it is questionable whether or not he plays in week one. Bosa, I would expect to be out there on the field. The reason why Bosa is in this situation is because he is negotiating for a larger contract, which means we might get contract. year, I'm trying to make a point, Nick Bosa. It's not technically contract year because the fifth year option if memory serves, but in general, the contract year boost is on the table.

You're disrespecting me because of my, you're disrespecting me and not giving me extension despite my production. Your boost is on the table for Nick Bosa. So Nick Bosa at 12 to 1. I like quite a bit. Hold on. That one is so weird to me. Like, why is he plus, how is he plus 1,200?

Is it, you know, he won the award last year. Like he's been ridiculously productive when he's on the field. We both agree that we don't think Nick Bosa's going to miss any games. He got injured one year. He hasn't been injury prone. He's got Jvon Hargrave now on that defensive line. I'm just so confused. Like, why is there such a gap between Parsons and Garrett and Bosa at plus, like, Parsons is plus

450. Garrett's plus 600. And yeah, I'm like, I wouldn't have picked Bosa, but Bosa plus 1,200? Yeah, that is absolutely going to be better value. When you, when you come off and you're like, I don't get that, one. I was like, is he going to argue me on Nick Bosa? And then you're like, I don't get the price. I didn't get the ads. Yeah. Right. Well, so I think, right.

So firstly, like I said on offensive player of the year, like, hey, who is the last repeat winner? Because you don't see a repeat there that often. Defensive player of the year, you actually do see repeats. Now, the repeats have been JJ Waugh and Aaron Donald. Right. So it's like dominant dudes at the top of their stretch. But, hey, they've been more willing to do it there. So like, I don't think that factors in too much. The other thing is, I think that there is like, I think the contract dispute is baked into the price a little bit.

but I again like what percent chance would you put it at Nick Bosa is now in the field week one for the Niners? I'd put it at like three. Yeah, 100%. Be shocking. And even to fold this in, the second guy I like who's decently chalky

is Chris Jones at plus 2,500. Is Chris Jones not going to be on the field? I really don't think that's going to happen. I think Chris Jones's going to be out there in week one. And where are the sacks coming from on this Kansas City defensive line if not Chris Jones? Chris Jones has also shown to us, right? Like betting a defensive tackle to be, to win this award would largely be something I would shy away from because defensive tackles can't hit the sack totals that you really need to hit to stand out here.

Like unless your name is Aaron Donnell. You're just not bringing the quarterback down enough. Well, lo and behold, you have Chris Jones who last year took the quarterback down 15 and a half times. It's the second time he's had at least 15 sacks in his career. He can have those seasons, right? And so, again, you're looking at a potential contract, your boost. You know the sacks in Kansas City are coming from Chris Jones. And 16 sacks at defensive tackle is more impressive.

and 16 sacks at edge. And so if he's among the league, sack leaders, like he has a good chance to, I think, get called for the award. And so these two guys who are like, I think have a little bit of contract year dispute broken down to them,

to me are the guys that I, that I circle for this award. They get on the field, show this team how much you're worth. And while you're there, pick a little bit of hardware. So Nick Bosa, I think,

is the best value. As I said, I agree with you there. I mean, he led the NFL in Sacks last year, and he had 14 more quarterback hits than any other player in the NFL. last year. Like he hits the, like you said, this usually goes to who hits the quarterback the most, you know, sacks mostly, but also, you know, maybe now people are ticking into account

quarterback hits. He does that pretty consistently. And so I just don't understand the number there, why it's so much lower. If you ask me, who do I actually think is going to win it? We talked about this in the previous pot. I think Miles Garrett is going to be a fan, have a fantastic season. I think that Brown's defense is going to be really good. He's 27 years old. He's been maybe the most consistent defensive player in the NFL. He has 44 sacks in the last three seasons more than any other player. And so my pick would be, I think Miles Garrett's going to win the award. I think Bosa is the best value. And listen, it's just an annual tradition for me, Solac, to pick Brian Burns as my sleeper for this award. And, you know, if I, listen, if I'm going to go on and say the

Panthers could have a top five defense, well, someone's going to be getting some notoriety from that group. He had 12 and a half sacks last year, a career high. He's plus. He's plus. 3,500 to win this award. Now, I don't think he's quite in that same class as the Garrets, the Bosa's, even T.J. Watt and Michael Parsons. However, do I think he could pile up some big numbers there in Carolina? And that could potentially be a surprise team. Again, you got the narrative thing going on.

Yeah, I think that's possible. And so plus 3,500. I was like, all right, who do I like most out of these long shots? And he was my favorite. Yeah. The guy for me, when you start looking long shot, your defense is the Carolina Panthers this year. My defense this year is the Miami Dolphins.

Jalen Phillips is a guy that I want to just get so much more attention for right, what he's been able to produce so far, how he's grown as a young player. I also would note when you generally look at defensive awards, especially when you start to get in the nitty-degree of like who won it over whom, this tends to be a really big name recognitiony award. it tends to go to guys who are taking in the first round. We'll get to defense of a rookie of the year in a second.

Defense of the year is an enormous name recognition thing. They do not give that award out to second round, third round, fourth round, guys. So Jalen Phillips was a top 20 pick. Obviously, Brian Burns was what, top five pick? Burns went four. Am I making that up? We'd go eight? Where do you go?

Top 10. Burns top 10, yeah, yeah, yeah. And so Jalen Phillips, who was top 20 last year, or excuse me, top 30 last year in overall pressure rate, is the primary rusher for the dolphins, even with the addition of Bradley Chub, Chub, Seeler, Ogba is such a good rotation. Phillips is able to get a lot of one-on-one opportunities and he wins those. So you're looking for a peak season from him, but he's been knocking on the door of that.

If you get like a Hassan-Ruddick-type season, right, that's 16-sack season where he's just able to bring the quarterback down. He picks up, cleanup stuff. He stuffs the stat sheet a little bit. Then he's going to be in that conversation. So Jalen Phillips is my guy, 50 to 1, who's a longer shot than Brian Burns is because I actually put my back into these things. Burns was actually the 16th overall pick, which I remembered him going higher. I thought there was like a lot of buzz around Brian Burns. I feel like I thought he was fourth overall,

except for sure I had him fourth overall in that class. I don't think he's actually. Once I said it, I was like, no, that didn't happen. Just flexing left and right, this guy. Show me the receipts. Now, I believe you. A lot of people like Brian Burns that year, that was kind of surprising. All right, let's get to the rookies.

All offensive rookie of the year. Garrett Wilson won it. last year, last 10 years, you got three wide receivers, three quarterbacks, and four running back. So there's not really like a pattern of, hey, this position is usually what wins it. It could be any of those. There could be a little groundswell one of these years for an offensive linemen to win it. I could see that. I don't know that that's going to be this year. It would be shocking. I'm about to say, you push in Paris Johnson on the Cardinals. Yeah. Yeah. This would be your worst year for that to happen. But maybe in another year.

as offensive line, Twitter gets louder out there. Maybe they'll make a push for an offensive lineman to win it. Bichon Robinson is plus 300. No, don't do it. You should have taken it pre-draft. Pre-draft, he was like 7 to 1. That was the time to take it. He was always going to go top 10.

He was always going to get a ton of volume where he went. Do not be betting off as a rookie of the year plus 300. It could be the love child of Walter Payton and, And someone else is good at running back. You can't do it, man. You can't do it. As you talk, I will look up. I want to look up, you know, to win to have the most rushing yards in the NFL,

Bijan Robinson and what those odds are. Oh, it's plus 1,000. So yeah, if you think Bejan Robinson is going to have a monster season, just do plus 1,000 most rushing yards over plus 300, right? If you think Bejan Robinson is going to have a special season, take Atlanta Falcons to make the playoffs Atlanta Falcons to win the division yes sir don't do that

no don't don't do that save your money so yeah I think Bija Roberts it's obviously the favorite but as Solac said you don't really want to be putting plus 300 on this award so who else do you like down the list here yeah so you said there isn't much of a pattern here to this award I actually

for positions yeah yeah for positions the reality of offensive rookie year that I usually like to say is, if a quarterback starts a lot of games and doesn't suck, he gets the award, right? Like, if you just play a lot and then you're not terrible, you're going to get it. Kyla Murray got this over Josh Jacobs in 2019,

which was bananas, right? Like, Josh Jacobs was just a remarkably better player, more impactful to his team. But Kyler started all 16 games and ran around a little bit. And they were like, Kyler, this is for you. Justin Herbert wanted the year following. Then you get to 2021, and there's all this quarterback hype, right? Like, oh, it's going to go to Trevor.

It's going to go to Fields. you know, he's going to play, Zach Wilson's going to play all season. Mac Jones, right, he started all season, yeah, yeah, whatever. And then, who won it in 2021? Was it Chase? Yeah, it was Chase. Yes, Chase.

Yeah, yeah, right. Chase sets literal rookie receiving records. And, like, Lawrence was terrible because of Urban Meyer, Zach Wilson was terrible because he actually is. Mac Jones had, like, kind of a nice season, and they thought that maybe he was going to win the award, but he set records. And then Garrett Wilson went and pushed those records.

And so unless you get like a truly record, setting rookie season, which, like, again, I think you're looking at Bijon if you're trying to get that out of this class, then in general, a quarterback who starts and is generally productive has as good of a shot and typically gets this award by default. Accordingly to me, I look for shroud. Hold on. Hold on. I think the bar, I think the bar's a little higher than that. I don't know that that's necessarily fair. You know, like Kyler Murray as a rookie completed 64% of his passes, 3,700 yards, 20 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and ran for 500 yards. Like, I agree with you. That's not like top five production, but that's like not an easy bar to clear for a rookie quarterback.

And the other ones in the last 10 years, Justin Herbert was awesome as a rookie. Dak Prescott was awesome as a rookie. And those are three of the last 10. So you're about to say a quarterback. So I'm interested to hear which quarterback you think it is. But I think it is a little bit more than just this guy started. It was kind of okay. I think there's a little bit of a higher bar to clear there. Yeah, kind of okay is you're right. That's too much. They have to be competent. but like Matt Ryan won this award in 2006 because the Falcons won a bunch of games.

He had like 16 touchdowns to 11 interceptions. It averaged like seven yards in attempt. Like he has like a very regular season, right? Robert Griffin, the third won this award. Again, like it was just rushing potential, rushing production. I think we're a little bit. What? Robert Griffin, the third was amazing as a rookie. What are you talking about?

He also didn't play that much. It's like one of the greatest rookie quarterback seasons we've ever seen. You were maybe young at the time. Robert Griffin the third as a rookie was like an absolute revelation. Yeah. I was thinking I was thinking of his 2013 season. I apologize. You're right.

I'm Robert Griffin the third. 2012. He was very good. It's like a multi-three's agent or something. That just matters like I was looking at the wrong year. That's on me. No, you get you get Robert Griffin the third. But in general, this award is given like like it doesn't look like it goes to

to quarterbacks that often relative to like MVP. But most like, we have. have to remember in a lot of seasons, there aren't enough rookie quarterbacks playing enough to get this award to one of them. That's something that's been changing in recent years. And certainly this season, we expect to see three rookie quarterbacks start in week one in C.J. Stroud in Bryce Young and in Anthony Richardson. Right. And so to me, the first thing I do is I go and I look to identify where those players are. And I want to take one of them. Well, Bryce Young is plus 400. Anthony Richardson is plus 800. And C.J. Stroud is plus 1,000.

Richardson gets the bump because of the rushing potential. Bryce Young gets the bump because of the first overall pick, I'd take CJ Straub. I thought Straub was the most pro-ready of those three. Oh, I thought you were definitely going to take Richardson. That's interesting. So, Richardson is, Richardson's tricky because, like, I think four years ago when Kyler won it, if Richardson walked in and threw the ball really deep down the field and then had a bunch of rushing yards, we'd be like, holy smokes, quarterback rushing.

This is crazy. Like, unbelievable, Richardson's the rookie of the year. Coming off of the Daniel Jones season, we just came off of, I think if Richardson runs around for a bunch, we're not going to be as impressed as we were. I think I think that's the tricky thing. Like, when you go and you look at who's won this, Cam, as a quarterback, Cam's won it, RG3s won it, Dax won it.

And remember 2016, Dak was running a little bit more than current DAC is. And Kiva's won it. It's a lot of guys who have rushing potential. I'm not sure we're still going to, I don't want to say fall for that. But it is like, I would not fault anybody for taking Richardson. I don't mind it.

I was surprised to see him above Stroud. I think that that's the rushing potential baked in. With Stroud, like, I think you have a very functional receiving room in Houston. You have Robert Woods. Really? Yeah. Robert Woods. I think their receiver stink.

Listen, it's not like they're not, they're not explosive, not going to create a ton of stuff. I'm saying like, this isn't like when Fields went out there and didn't have anyone to throw it to. Lawrence went out there in his first year, didn't have anyone to throw it to. Robert Woods, Noah Brown, Dalton Shultz, Nico Collins, that's perfectly acceptable. Robert Woods, what year is this?

What are you talking? It's like that. It's exactly like what those guys are dealing with. I think it's one of the worst wide receiver rooms in the entire NFL. I think there's a very strong argument that the reason C.J. Stroud should not be the pick is because he's got nobody to throw it. Now, I think the argument for him would actually be, hey, their offensive line could be pretty good. That's a bottom five group of pass catchers. Noah Brown, Robert Woods, and Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz?

I mean, come on. For a rookie. Even there's so much worse than the wide receivers he would. Think of the drop off from who he threw in college and who he's thrown to in the NFL. In 2021, Justin Fields was throwing the ball at Daz Newsom, Marquise Goodwin, Demir Bird, Darnel Mooney, and Alan Robinson theoretically. Okay. I mean, I still would say it's,

first you had me nervous there, but then you got kind of down the list a little bit, and I think those guys are comparable to this group. Lawrence was throwing the ball to Marvin Jones and Leviska-Schneult in 2021. That was bad. All right, those were bad. I think this is bad, too. I think that's fine. If you want to tell me the other ones for worse, I think this is one of, this is still one of the worst.

But we can disagree. I didn't even give Houston Tank Dell, because I don't think Tankdale's going to actually be that great because he's my size. But like, they're very excited about Tank Dell. The other thing that Fields didn't have, and Lawrence didn't have that Stroud does have,

is got Bobby Slovak. He's got a San Francisco system. They've got, they've got the offense to George. The hipster offensive coordinator. Bobby Sloick is going to light the league on fire. Is this a hipster day? I never mentioned Bobby,

Sloick before on this show. You're throwing football hipstrap at me. It's probably me consuming too much out of the whole content this time of year. I feel like some of these guys, just a legend that's taken off. I'm like, Bobby, could I see Bobby Sloak do something? But that's probably, that's probably on me. Sorry, I take it back.

Because, right, when, you know, Shane Waldron didn't help elevate Gino. Kevin O'Connell didn't help elevate Kirk Cousins. This is what the system does. The system is good. That one's debatable, actually. Kevin O'Connell? Kurt Cousins? They was like their worst offense under Kurt Cousins statistically since he's been there.

And he's got Justin Jefferson and he's got two good offensive tackles and they were 20th in DVOA. I don't know that he really elevated Kurt Cousins. I absolutely think that schematically O'Connell helped Kurt Cousins. I think we want to talk about why the Vikings' offense wasn't good. We should start between the left tackle

and the right tackle. Separate conversation. I'm betting CJ's round. We were agreeing too much. Listen, this is what happens. We were agreeing too much. And then I felt like, something inside of me was like, what's happening? This isn't the usual podcast.

And so we had to go out of each other a little bit. Sorry, continue with your CJ Stroud point. For the purposes of this, right, I haven't taken about an offensive rookie of the year. For the purposes of this, I like CJ Stroud at 10 to 1. I also like Anthony Richardson 8 to 1. I don't mind that. I lean a little bit of Stroud because of talking about the quarterback mobility thing and kind of how are the narratives going to go.

I would not take Brex-jong out 4 to 1. And that's my perspective on offensive rookie of the year. Now, you say something so I can pretend like it's the craziest thing I've ever heard. Listen, I think Kevin O'Connell's really going to help Jordan Addison. I like Jordan Addison. You just said Kevin O'Connell's without a film. Wait, no, are you seriously taking it? Oh, my God.

I thought that was a bait. All right. So, I hear you with the quarterbacks. I wish I don't like any of the quarterback situations that much. And I know that's usually the case. But if there was a little bit more around them, especially Bryce Young, I feel like if they hadn't included DJ more in that trade and had Bryce Young, I would be like, all right, I think Bryce Young in that Panthers' offense because I think

They've got the coaching. I'm a little worried about their offensive line performance in the preseason, but those guys were competent last year. Richardson, I just feel like the passing game is going to be really tough for the Colts right away, but I think he's going to be exciting. And I think he could, you know, it's possible. He puts up monster rushing numbers.

CJ Stroud. I want to talk about a bad receiving room. Yeah. CJ, no, the Colts have a better receiving room in Texans. They do. They do. They do. I was like,

Josh Downs is my boy, baby. I like Josh Downs like Doug Pierce. I am, I'm Bridger, Michael Pittman, separate conversation. Stroud, we just talked about. So I struggled with this one quite a bit, but I looked at Jordan Addison plus 1600, and I said, again, there's 107 targets left over from Adam Thielan leaving. Justin's obviously going to get a lot of attention. I like Jordan Addison as a prospect there. And so could he lead all rookie wide receivers in yards this year?

I think he absolutely could. And if there's no other slam dunk choice, if, you know, Bejan Robinson somehow, isn't the monster we all think he's going to be. It was basically like if it's not Bijan, who do I want to go with? And he was the one that I liked there. So yeah, Jordan Addison would be my down the list choice there.

I have a deep sleeper here. Do you have a deep sleeper? I do. Do you remember the last tight end to win offensive rookie of the year? Oh my gosh. I don't. I have no idea. It's never happened.

With that said, Dalton Kincaid's going to get a lot of targets and a very successful passing offense in this league. I don't know what it would take for a tight end to win the award because Kyle Pitts set rookie tight end receiving records. And they were like, no, I don't worry about it. Justin Herbert. Over a thousand yards, yeah.

Right. And so, I mean, Kincaid would have to be ludicrously productive. But the amount of volume and attention that he's going to get in this offense means if he is the talent, he's billed as, he's a good shot to be ludicrously productive. Well, hold on. Explain to me, why is he the exception? because we've looked at everyone's look, a lot of people have looked at these numbers. Rookie tight ends, first round, average, I forget, I gave it out.

It's under 400 yards per season is the average. And like the high end of that, there's not a lot of guys up there. It's Kyle Pitts, and there might have been two other guys who had like over 600, 700. So, and this goes to like a larger Bill's conversation. Just why do you think Dalton Kincaid is the exception? And he's going to come in and he has the potential to be really good and really productive right away. because I feel like we do kind of do this every year, but that doesn't mean he's not going to be the exception.

The answer is I don't necessarily think he is the exception, right? When you bet, you're betting expectation versus outcome, right? You bet in the world in which this happens versus the implied percent chance that happens by the books. Don Kincaid right now is, according to the books, less likely to win offensive rookie of the year than a third round running back in Tank Bigsbee. I just don't think that's right.

You know what I'm saying? like I, like, Charbonnet and Bigsby, they have similar odds. They're plus, they're 40 to 1. It's Bigsby, Charboning, and Rishi Rice. None of those guys are going to get even remotely the volume that is necessary, save for significant injuries to people in front of them, to even sniff offensive rookie of the year. And then I question whether or not they have the talent.

Don Kincaid's going to get the volume. He's going to run almost 100% of the routes per game. Like on passing plays, Kincaid is going to be running a route on that passing play. in one of the league's best passing offenses, right? Then, okay, you say, well, what about the target distribution? Outside of Stefan Diggs, there are so many targets up for grabs in this bill's offense. The bills are perfectly fine with the idea of Dalton Kincaid beating Gabriel Davis out for the second target getter on this team, beating James Cook out of the second guard.

They have no issue with that whatsoever. So it's not that I think Kincaid is going to break the stigma of rookie titans producing. It has a unique talent that no way. nobody else has, it's that if he is one of those few talented, productive, ready, rookie tight ends, the opportunity for him is enormous, relative like a Kyle Pitts who walked out was a sensation, but also like didn't have a functional quarterback in the office, didn't know how to use him and had to like scratch call and dig his way to 100 yards or to a thousand yards. So that's what we're talking about.

We're not talking about like, I think Don't Kincaid's unique player because people remember the draft, I was a little bit spooky on Duncan Kate as like a first round pick. and his talent how he would map it to the NFL. Now, given the environment and the opportunity in front of him, 40 to 1 to me is a good bet. Yeah, that's fair. Pass heavy offense, great quarterback, opportunity for volume and targets.

Organization kind of put their eggs in this basket, that, hey, this is how we're going to improve this offseason. It's by trading up. So really, from all directions, they are incentivized for this guy to be a good player if he goes out and proves it. So I think that's a fair argument. My down-the-list guy, was Jalen Hyatt. And like some of the reasons are kind of, he's plus 5,000. The Giants offense

produced the fewest explosive plays in the NFL last year. So I don't think he needs a ton of targets. He's 19 yards per reception in college. It's kind of like can he average a high yards per reception and catch enough balls where he puts up big numbers. So I was just looking for a deep sleeper. It's plus 5,000. I'm going to tell you he's going to win it. But I feel like we haven't talked a lot about the Giants on this podcast in recent weeks. So there you go. I'm fine with that. There's some Giants love. All right, let's take a break. We'll come back and do defensive rookie of the year. All right, we are back on Extra Point Taking defensive rookie of the year. Ben, last 10 years, six pass rushers, three cornerbacks, one off ball linebacker. So again,

pass rushers are winning this award more than other positions, although cornerbacks are kind of sneaking in there. Will Anderson is the favorite at plus 400. Who do you like in this spot? Yeah. So the defensive rookie of the year award goes to people who are selected in the first half of the first round, right? If you go back and you look, like, I'm just going to read names. Sauce Gardner, Michael Parsons, Chase Young, Nick Bosa, Shaqlellanard, second round pick, Martian Latimore, Joya Bosa, Marcus Peters, Aaron Donald, Shelton, Lucifer, Bon Miller and Dominic and Sue. Brian Cushing, I can't remember if he was or not, Drudmail.

Patrick Willis was a late first round, early second rounder if memory serves. Dumeco, Domingo Rhyans. Domingo was the one who was a second rounder. Excuse me. Sean Merriman, Jonathan Vilma, Trollsox. This award goes to early drafted players, period. Right? You do not see late drafted players on this.

It is hugely a name recognition thing, right? Like Tariq Wollin walked out with that like huge start to the season last year. It was like defensive rookie of the year, no chance. They're going to give it to somebody who's named people know, right? They're trying to make guys into brands, right? It's not like a conscious thing. It's a subconscious thing. But this award, if you are betting on somebody who is taken outside of the top 30,

I would say even outside of the top 20 picks, in my opinion, you are really, really, really rolling the dice with your money. So Will Anderson, Jalen Carter, Tyree Wilson, Devon Wittlespoon, Lucas Van Ness, Emmanuel Forbes. Take a pick. Who you like? I think that if you want to fold, you can fold a McDonald in there. Obviously, you can get Jack Campbell in there and Christian Gonzalez in there.

I think it makes for some more interesting guys. I love Jack Campbell at 18 to 1. I think that sitting at Mike linebacker in front of a generally shaky front on a team that's going to get run on quite a bit is going to be in high scoring games, got an opportunity to accrue a ton of tackles. There's a chance that Jack Campbell just gets such counting stats

that they just give him this award, especially Detroit ends up just like good. Like, oh, Detroit made the playoffs this year, that's fun. Like, Jared Goff's not winning MVP. Munrooste St. Brown's not winning offensive player of the year. Dan Campbell's not winning coach of the year. Jack Campbell will give the year. you know, get him something and go.

If he's got like 112 tackles, I think that you see that coming for sure. And then when it comes to past rushers, I don't think Tyree Wilson, Lucas Van Ness, those aren't guys to me that projected to be super productive early in their careers. Will McDonald, same issue.

Nolan Smith, same issue. Will Anderson's the only one I like. And he's 4 to 1. And I'm not going to take that. So I'd much rather give myself Jack Campbell. The corners, you're just kind of gambling on who gets interceptions. So to me, like, it's a pretty narrow market.

I like the Campbell bet, everything else for me, just because of how I feel about the players coming out, my e-vals, I'm concerned about him. Yeah, I mean, Will Anderson, like you said, plus 400, and for good reason, I think. I mean, he's going to be in Damiko Ryan's defense. There's no question about his playing time or his role or anything like that. And he was, I mean, a ridiculously productive college player. So he's somebody who you could look at it and say comes in right away and is an awesome player right away. But yeah, for plus 400, I'm not sure it's worth it. Among the names you mentioned, I had one of those guys written down, and it was Will McDonald's.

I mean, Jess, I sort of agree with you. Like, I wasn't like, hey, Will McDonald is amazing as a prospect. Maybe I'm getting, you know, influenced by Hard Knocks, but he's plus 2,200. I think he's going to be playing for a top five defense. You mentioned it, I think, when we were talking about the Jets defense, that at edge, it's not like they have that one guy who opposing offensive coordinators like, shoot, we have to have a plan for this guy. It's Quinn and Williams is that guy, and he's a defensive tackle.

So could Will McDonald emerge and get more playing time at defensive end? Could he pile up some sacks when offensive lines are paying attention to other guys on that defensive line? So I didn't love it. But when I was looking at kind of the potential options, Will McDonald, I thought it was pretty good value there. He fits what you said. First round pick going to be playing for a good defense. Has a chance to pile up some of those counting stats. And by all accounts, has been having a good summer there with the Jets.

So he was my selection. All right. One of my favorite ones, Coach of the Year, which I don't know on Fandu right now. I'm not sure if you can bet on Coach of the Year. So I actually don't have odds for this one. So this one will just have a general conversation about who we think is going to win it. I didn't actually do a bunch of research into historical Coach of the Year winners. I feel like usually it's the guy who took a team that everyone thought was going to suck and kind of got them to the playoffs.

It was Brian Dayball last year, I believe. if that certainly fits the bill. So who do you like here, Ben, for Coach of the Year? Well, I'm on Fandle.com, and I'm looking at APNFL Coach of the Year 2020, 24, and I'm looking at all the odds that are listed and are available. Yeah. Oh, all right. You must have special access.

Maybe it's my state or something? Yeah, I was glad to say there's a chance that's your state. There's also a chance that I'm just that much better at this than you are. Both of these are options. We have to evaluate all outcomes. That's true. So give them to me. Right now, yeah.

Dan Campbell's the favorite, 10 to 1. Next, you get Sean Payton, 14, Arthur Smith, 14. Matt Eberflees 16 to 1, Robert Saw, 16 to 1, Mike Tomlin, 16 to 1, Matt LaFle, 4, 16 to 1, and then rounding it out at 20 to 1, Pete Carroll, Dennis Allen, Mike McDaniel, and Doug Peterson. General rule of thumb for coach of the year, you either better be in your first season as the coach,

or you better have a quarterback who was in his first season on the team you are coaching, right? This is his first season as a starter. You go and you look at, obviously, like, you have Brian Dable, last season winning the award. You have Kevin Stepanski, winning the award in his first year. You also have guys like John Harbaugh, who won it in the first year that Lamar was a starter.

You have Ron Rivera, the first year that... Or not Ron Rivera, the first year, Cam was a starter. I was Bruce Ariens who won it his first year. Who else was it? Oh, Jason Garrett, the most hilarious one, 2016. One coach of the year. Why? because Dak Prescott was a fourth round pick who started it and was good.

And they were like, this must be Jason Garrett. There's no other explanation. So in general, you're looking for a coach who's either in his first year or his quarterbacks in the first year. And then you're looking for a substantial improvement on last year's win total and the preseason win total. Typically, you're seeing an improvement of like six to seven games off of last year's win total. Accordingly, I mean, Sean Payton as kind of like, what if maybe it is, right? Like, is it first year as the coach of the Denver Broncos? They didn't win a lot of games last year.

They're probably going to win just a regular amount of games this year because of regression because they're going to get better and close games. They're not going to manage the end of the game terribly. You tell me if Russell Wilson doesn't look functional, they're not going to throw all the credit as Sean Payton. It's like Payton at 14 to 1 is an extremely tempting bet for me for a coach of the year. And by tempting, I mean I have taken it.

First of all, you know, I was just thinking when I was going through, I don't have the eye. You could have to stop me and said, She'll, I have the odds. And just tell you, let me go in the whole ring. I was double-checking. Listen, I'm going to get you one of these Dennis Allen shirts. Have you seen these?

What's to say? Big team. Big team over little me. It's team over me. I love that. You're wearing a ringer shirt. Maybe we can get a ringer-branded team over me shirt for the expats. In all seriousness, I wasn't positive until like halfway through.

I like double-checked because I like I, like I said, I knew my bets. And then I went and opened it. And I was like, it's right here on season awards in the same tab that all the other ones are in, like, am I nuts? Yeah, anyway, so it's here. Sorry. Sorry, big, big, big shield over little Ben for the future, moving forward. Sean Payton is my pick too.

I mean, you look, if it's all the criteria you mentioned, he'll get the media buff. There'll be people on Fox. Hey, look at the job this guy's done. Russell Wilson looked so, so, you always, again, you always want to follow kind of the worst coach team. This is a good life lesson. I've said it before. Like when you're looking for jobs, whatever, when you're looking to step into a role, follow like the person who was a complete train wreck. Then you just have to be average and it looks like you're doing a great job.

Sean Payton teaching us life lessons on the ringer NFL feed. So I like Sean Payton also quite a bit. Mike Tomlin has never won this award. I think I bring that up every year when I have this conversation, which is just the most absurd. It's worse than that whole Russell Wilson. The Russell Wilson MVP thing was explainable. I don't think this one is explainable. So I don't know if the Steelers win that division.

I know he doesn't fit the kind of criteria that you mentioned, but I think he certainly could be in the mix. There could be kind of a groundswell of support for him. If the Seahawks win the NFC West, maybe there's a little lifetime achievement for Pete Carroll there. If the Panthers win the NFC South, I think Frank Reich could get in the mix. What about Matt LaFleur?

What if the Packers make the playoffs? This is so interesting because I was just on through the ringer with Tate Fraser, Fandall TV, log in, what's up? And there were two guys he asked me about for Coach of the Year and it was Mike Tomlin and Matt LaFloor. And both of them I was like, do they deserve it? Yeah. Are they going to get it? No. Right?

Like, again, like awards are separate. The title of an award, Coach of the Year is separate from the thing for which it's given. It's not given to the best coach of the year. It's given to like the guy who surprised us the most. The guy who like kind of killed it. like, oh, Mike Rable in 21, Kevin Sopansky in 2020, Brian Dable last year, right? It's given to surprising teams for whom we give the credit to the head coach, right? And so Tomlin has always been over 500, drafted a guy in Kenny Pickett.

Pickett's going to take a step forward. They're going to finish the season 11 and 6. And Mike Tomlin's going to finish third in coach of the airboat. Okay, good job, Mike. But man, isn't it cool how Shane Steikin's Colts went 500? Like, I don't know, you know, making stuff up. So, yeah, that and then LaFluor, LaFleur is one of the most winning coaches by win percentage.

And like, Lee history, right? Like, he's unbelievably winning. It's ridiculous. He's 47 and 19. He's won 71% of his games. Like, there's a chance that Matt LaFleur is an also coach. Like, yeah, I understand Aaron Rogers was awesome. By the way, Aaron Rogers, like, that team wasn't lighting it up before.

It's not like every team with Aaron Rogers was amazing. So, yeah, I'm kind of curious about that one. I do think LaFleur. is a good and fun candidate. I do because first year of Jordan Love, right? So again, you have to remind yourself, okay, so coach of the year has been given out,

who, like, in the world in which the Packers were good, are they getting offensive player for the year? No, they're probably not going to live through one guy. Are they getting MVP? No, Jordan Love's not going to be that good. They're getting coach of the year. Like in the universe in which the Packers end up good, they're getting coach

of the year. You typically, by the way, see Coach of the Year teams win their division and have double legit wins. Brian Dable last season winning the award with the 9-7 and 1 New York Giants is the first time a coach, one coach of the year with a single-digit win total since Jimmy Johnson on the seven and nine cowboys in 1990? What were y'all doing before I was around the people who were below 500 were getting coached of the year? And all old heads who tweet him even like you Jimmy Johnson 90 cowboys, I'm not going to listen. That's ridiculous. So yeah, so typically I get you double legit win totals, which I think the Packers are one of those teams who are like,

let's say Frank Reich does a really good job coaching the Panthers. Shane Steigman was a really good job coaching the Colts. And Matt LeForda was a really good job coaching the Packers. I think the Colts are like seven, eight wins. The Panthers are like eight, nine, maybe 10 wins. The Packers are probably like 10, 11 wins. And that win total, the potential of winning the NFC North tends to, again, a skew for the coach of the year award.

And so I do think the floor is a fun one. Like I said, I like Sean Payton, would be remiss if I didn't bring up Arthur Smith, who absolutely beautifully fits this, the 10 and 7 Falcons win the NFC South and Desmond Ritter is good. They're not given MVP to Desmond Ritter. They're given coach of the year Arthur Smith. It's Be Ritter's first year starting in the system.

The same way it was for Harbaugh and Lamar when they won in 2019. So to me that's another good candidate as well. All right. Let's run through these last two ones quickly. And then let's get to who's going to be the team, the extra point taken team of 2020. Comeback player of the year. I mean, DeMarie, it feels like Ikey even talking about it. I mean, he's minus 350.

Like, yes. He deserves it. Just give it to him. No one else needs to play. I don't even know if there's anything else you want to talk about. There's no worth handicapped and comeback player of the year because it's crapshoot on injured players. And then like you obviously this year, you have Hamlin in terms of coming back from it. It's not a market worth betting into.

Yes. It's great that he's back on the field practicing. It looks like he's going to make the team and actually have a role on that Bill's team. So that is all obviously amazing news. And then the last one, executive of the year, Benjamin. I had a hard time with this. Every other one, I had like a long list of candidates. And I don't even know if this is one.

Again, I don't think I can, on my Fanduel in Pennsylvania, I don't think I have odds for this one. I don't think I've ever had odds for this. Okay. So just who to you, is there somebody you're like, hey, let's give this person props if I had to give a vote for how I think this season is going to play out and who's going to to get that award during Super Bowl weekend. Who do you have there? Firstly, there's no, nothing drives me crazy in the fact that Chris Ballard won this in

2018 because Andrew Luck was good. Like, I don't, drives me insane. Anyway, always important to get that out. There's random people, Chris Ballard, Daniel Jones, just listening to this pod, big fans of extra point taken going, so like, keep my name at your mouth, okay? We don't say anything about you. We're not part of these conversations. Why are you yelling at us?

I promise you, Chris Ballard, if he was interested in finding out my opinion of him, would not have even remotely struggled over the course of my career in figuring that out. That's not a challenging thing for him, sadly. Love you, Chris. Anyway, typically you're looking at executive of a team that was extremely successful that also did

maybe one significant thing this past offseason, right? And even two off seasons ago, they'll give it to you, like Brandon Bean with the Bills, an offseason removed from taking Josh Allen in the draft. Bill Belichick gets it. after moving on from Tom Brady to Mac Jones, which, yes, by the way, Bill Belichick won Executive of the year, 2021,

Harry Rosen won it in 2022. How did he win that? I saw that and I was trying to remember what happened. I don't understand. He drafted Mac Jones. Okay. He spent a bunch of money in free agency on Kendrick-born, Jacoby Myers, and Hunter Henry,

and then drafted Mac Jones. It's a very silly award. I guess they finished above 500 in the first year post-Tom Brady. All right. That's fine. That was probably more coaching than executive. But anyway, sorry, go ahead. And so if you're looking at teams

that are going to be super successful, I think Duke Tobin is an interesting one with the Bengals. They've just been drafting so well. That's who I came down on. They've been drafting so well for so long. I think you could very easily get a lifetime achievement award there. And it would be justifiable. Honestly,

we'd not be surprised to see Mickey Loomis get this. People are always very impressed by the fact that the Saints just spend money that they don't deserve. The team you crush every year for their team building? You think Mickey Loomis is going to win executive of the year? For what? Shield. I crush them every year.

Does anybody else do that? No. Yes, everybody. Oh my God. That would surprise me. Mickey's like the second longest tenure general manager in the league. He does not get the criticism he is due. Trust me, if he did, there would be more visibility on his job.

Well, they were good for a long time. Yeah. Yeah, but obviously, like, if Derek Carr is good, you know, again, you're trying to figure out outcomes here. There's a chance to you're giving Mickey Loomis for that move, right, for going, getting the new quarterback after Carr, like, whatever, he gets it. So I can see Mickey Loomis getting it. But altogether, like,

it's not it's a very it's a very challenging thing to predict and it just tends to go to guy who is associated with an extremely good team yeah i thought duke tobin made sense i think that roster's really good and i feel like the areas where they could not be great it's not because they didn't plan for it you know like the whole safety thing they drafted dxhill then they lose two safeties like that's stuff that howie roseman does that he gets a lot of uh credit for you know they drafted dj turner like they've kind of been gearing up it's not just hey this year here's what we want to do. They rebuilt their offensive line after that Super Bowl loss to achieve competency. And I think that's going to be a good team. Also, like, I don't know if this gets taken into account, but Duke Topin

has, like, fewer resources that, like, his resources compared to someone like Howie Roseman is night and day. I mean, when you really look at it and what's the organization giving you and are they making your job easier or not? Like, Jeffrey Lurie is making Howie Roseman's job a lot easier than Brown is making Duke Tobin's job easier. So yeah, I think that's pretty impressive. The other guy wrote down was John Schneider. I mean, they just, like, I was killing this organization last time at this year. I'm like, this team's going to stink. They got two rookie offensive tackles. They're going with Gino Smith at quarterback. They've got a rookie starting at quarterback. Like every premium position, they've got no edge rush. Like, this is going to be a three-year rebuild for the Seahawks.

And what do they do? They make the playoffs. And so if Gino is good, if they win the NFC, West, if last year's draft class, if those guys are all still good this year, I think he's another name that at least deserves a mention. Do you remember when John Schneider won the executive of the year award for putting in the Legion of Boom and like drafting all those great defensive players and also Russell Wilson outside of the first round? You remember what he said? What did he say? Nothing because he didn't win it. Oh. He's never won him. He's insane. The 2010 to 2012, those drafts. Those drafts as well. My man was cooking. No, he's not. John Dorsey got an award.

Insane. It really, it's really not like an award that you want to win. I feel like those guys get fired. Ryan Grisyn! It's not a good. An absurd award. It's an absurd award. All right, let's finish with this.

If you haven't listened to every show, then you don't know what we're talking about. Ben and I agreed a few weeks ago. You said, we said, you know what? We disagree on a lot of things, but we need something to come together on. You know, we actually do like each other. We want something. and we can both root for here. Who is a team with plus odds that we can both plan our flag and say,

this team's making the playoffs. And we can just every week, as we do this show throughout the season, we'll check in on them, we'll make fun of ourselves, we'll laugh at ourselves for picking a terrible team. But is there a team we can agree on? I think I threw out some teams. You poo-poohed some of them. You said other ones.

Oh, yeah, I could kind of see it. You threw out some teams. I said, no way. I'm not doing that team. And I believe we came down to the Broncos and the Packers. Am I wrong? Was there? You didn't want to do the Steelers.

I wanted the Steelers. You wanted to do the Falcons. I wanted to do the Steelers. We both vetoed the other person. That's compromised. That's marriage. All right. Yeah, that's learning.

Yes. The Packers are plus 138. The Broncos are plus 186. The Broncos was very much like, like, let's be bad. Like, what if we did? after much rumination, I'd like to do the Packers. I have watched...

I thought you were going to go the other way. Interesting. I have watched the Jordan Love preseason drives, and I'm liking what I'm seeing. I'm digging it. I'm into it. I'm all about it. I find it radical.

I find it sick. And I am... I've said, I've tweeted this before. I am so emotionally invested in the universe in which the Packers are good after Rogers. I find that to be... so potentially funny. If just the Packer, like,

oh, the Jets are doing great. Rogers is succeeding. The trade was awesome. They're five and three, and the Packers are six and two. That's the funniest thing in the entire world to me. So I'm going to be emotionally room for the Packers anyway. I want the Packers to be the official expat team of the 2023 season.

Joe Barry, Ben? Joe Barry? That's who we're tying our. Broncos? Russell Wilson? All right. I'm saying, we got to. every team down here in the plus odds to make the playoffs is going to have someone.

All right. So the case for the Packers is that they had a top five Russian game last year. And so you feel like, all right, their running game could be really good. That's going to help a young quarterback. We mentioned it before. Matt LaFleur is 47 and 19 as a head coach. There's a chance this guy knows how to coach and knows how to maximize the talent at his disposal. And the defense, I just made fun of him, there is talent on the defense.

defense. It's not going to be like one of the five worst defenses. It might be mediocre. That's what it has been. That's what it probably will be. But it certainly has talent on defense. And then I think the big thing for the Packers is just, it's probably smart for us to pick an NFC team because as I'm going through this exercise, I'm leaving teams out of the playoffs in the AFC where I'm like, oh, I actually really like this team, but they're not going to make the playoffs. And in the NFC, it's the opposite. I go, how can I get to a third wildcard team when I don't like any of these? team. So that's the case for the Green Bay Packers. The case for the Denver Broncos would be that what I said earlier. You always want to follow the train wreck. They were the train wreck last year

with Nathaniel Hackett. Nothing went right. Disaster. Russell Wilson has been a good quarterback before. They've got one of the best offensive coaches of the last 25 years. They've got talent on defense. They've got a good defensive coordinator. Can they sneak into the postseason in the AFC with Sean Peyton. Listen, if you say, you know, Ben, I really want to do the Broncos, it'd be a hilarious bit. I will get on the boat with you.

I am on the Packers' boat, independent of whether or not you're with me. If you want to do the Broncos for the show, for the memes, I am down. No, let's do the Packers. You picked it, the Packers. I said, I said, the Green Bay Packers are the official EPP team

of 2023, expats, get your cheese heads on. do love Lambo Field. There's a lot I like about it. Packer schedule 2023.

We're opening at Bears, at Falcons, very early reckoning for my rooting interests. Two and all. Home Saints. Home lions. At Raiders,

at Broncos, home Vikings, we're chilling. We're going to have a great start to the year. We're all right. We're going to be good. I mean,

this is really a win for me because if the Packers are terrible, I can blame you. And if the Braves say, I wanted to go with the Broncos. You made me pick the Packers. So that's a win.

If the Packers are good, I say, what are you talking about? It's team over big team over Little Me. There's no I in team. This was a joint production and we picked the Packers. So I like it. I mean, listen, generally when you move on from like a Hall of Fame quarterback, you are not good the next season, but who knows? Maybe they will be the exception.

So there you go. It's the Green Bay Packers. Now, one order of business for us, Ben, we do have to pick. This was your idea. People think I'm the Web Blanket. Your idea to pick a team that we're going to, collectively hate throughout the season. So that's something we need to do between now and week one.

I have some candidates. Oh, all right. Let's go. I got nothing else going on. Teams with positive odds plus odds to fail to make the playoffs. Let's narrow down to two and then we'll pick one next week. So these are the teams that are extremely unlikely to miss the playoffs. The Seahawks are plus 100.

So it's 50-50. Jets plus 110, Saints plus 126, Ravens plus 122. Lions plus 136, Jags plus 158, Cowboys plus 180, and then Bill's, Bengals, Eagles, Niners, Chiefs.

We're not going to take any of those guys. Two teams, I walked in with just two candidates immediately. I'm open to hearing all the ones, but, and I think you can probably guess the two I know who it's going to be. I already know who it's going to be.

Go ahead. Who's it going to be? We're going to settle on the Saints, aren't we? Do you know who my second team is? Your second. We run through them again? And I'll,

and I'll... Seahawks, Jets, Jets, Jaguars. Yeah. Absolutely. It's the Jess and the Saints. The most fun teams to root against for extra point taken related interest. I will say, like, if we are going for the Packers, then I can understand not wanting to do the Jets and just making it a full on Aaron Rogers vendetta.

I do think rooting against the Saints to make the playoffs is fun because either the Falcons make it or the Panthers make it. Falcons are great for me. Panthers is great for you. Or, you know, maybe the Bucks Baker Mayfield. That's just good for chaos. but in general, the Saints deserve cosmic punishment for the way they've managed

the cap over the last decade. I would like to see their reckoning come nigh and I would like to root for it. Or even, yeah, I mean, the Saints could even align with the Packers if we're talking wildcard. If one of the other teams wins the NFC South, who's winning a wildcard spot,

it could be the scenes where the Packers are. All right, let's, I want to think about that one. Ruminate. Ruminate. I think the Saints are the favorites, but we're not going to settle on it quite yet. All right. That was a lot of fun.

Thank you to Ben, Benjamin Solac, thank you to Christopher Sutton for producing additional production supervision by Connor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgapal. You'll get Nora and Stephen on the next episode on this feed, and then Solek and I will be on later this week. Talk to everyone then, and thanks for listening to Extra Pointing. Must be 21 plus and present in select states. Fanduel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC gambling problem, call 1-800 gambler or visit fandul.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, and Virginia.

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