The Ringer NFL Show - Preseason Takeaways and Bold Predictions That We're Chewing On!

Episode Date: August 18, 2026

The Ringer’s own Austin Gayle stops by the pod to talk about some of his biggest takeaways from the first week of preseason NFL games. Sheil then workshops some bold NFL predictions he’s been working on before the season kicks off.(00:00) Preseason Takeaways and Bold Predictions That We're Chewing On!(01:41) Tennessee Titans and Cam Ward(14:33) Las Vegas Raiders and Fernando Mendoza(30:56) The Cleveland Browns(36:15) New York Giants and John Harbaugh(43:37) Jeremiyah Love’s injury(46:08) Minnesota Vikings(52:02) Detroit Lions(57:52) Cincinnati BengalsUpgrade Your Performance with Orgain Creatine. Available at Amazon, Costco, Walmart & Whole Foods.Start the season strong with the Kickoff Bundle. Available now.Host: Sheil KapadiaGuest: Austin GayleProducer: Chris SuttonVideo Editor: Stefano SanchezProduction Supervision: Conor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgopowell Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I'm your host, Sheal Capadia. We've got a couple of great topics today. First of all, preseason takeaways. And if you're thinking, Sheel, I didn't even really watch much preseason. Don't worry, that's why we have our guest, Austin Gale.

The guy loves the preseason, and he came to the table with preseason takeaways that he felt like I and all of you need to know about. And they led to some lively discussions, arguments you might even call, so that was really fun. And then in the second half the show, I have these takes that I'm thinking about going on the record with, but I'm not sure

if I can quite get there for the 2026 NFL season. So I brought three to the table with Austin and he either said, yeah, I agree with you. You're right, Shiel, or he talked me out of them. So it's a really fun show. Let's take a break. We'll come right back with Austin Gale. This episode of the Ringer NFL show is presented by Orgain. Organc Creatine helps improve muscle size, strength, and power when combined with a regular exercise and weight training routine. Plus, it's certified with informed choice, which means it's tested for prohibited substances in sports. Upgrade your performance with organ creatine available at Amazon, Costco, Walmart, and Whole Foods.

These statements have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. This product is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease. All right, we are back here on the Ringer NFL show with my friend. Austin, Gail, Austin, I noticed I didn't prep you for this, but I noticed that we are on very different schedules. Because as we were texting about the pod and what we're going to talk about, your text came in at 5.11 a.m., my time. And I responded like an hour later. You live on the West Coast. I live on the East Coast. I just feel like we're living very different lives. Yeah, the preseason sync has kind of caught me some sleepless nights here, having a rewatch tape. I also do that like kind of like millennial thing where when you have my text attention,

I might send you like four texts in a row on the same subject and like half of them might be LOL. So I kind of bombard you with notifications at 5am your time and that's on me. It's okay. I appreciate it because I go silent mode when I'm sleeping anyway. So don't worry. You didn't wake me up. I saw it when I woke up.

We talked about, hey, what are we going to talk about on the pod? And here's what we're going to talk about. Austin loves the preseason. He once pitched an idea for I believe himself to watch every minute of. every preseason game. I remember that, Austin, many years ago. And I was like, man, this guy, like, I like, I like football, but this guy, like, really, really, really likes football. So I'm someone who usually says the preseason's a liar. Everybody settle down. Don't draw big conclusions about what you're seeing in these games. So here's your goal here, Austin, is to convince me

why I need to pay attention to some of your takeaways from the first week of preseason. So let's do it. what is first on your list from preseason action that I actually need to pay attention to? I have overarching league takeaways that are important if we have time to get to them. That's a tease there. But let's get to specific team takeaways and start with a team that played their starters on both sides of the ball. A lot of their starters on both sides of the ball deep into their opening preseason debut. And that was the Tennessee Titans with new head coach, Robert Sala, and the new offense coordinator, Brian Dayball. And the only takeaway I had from that was going against the first.

Niners backups, these substation survivors. They looked horrible. Like, Cam Ward is missing easy passes. It feels like they're trying to press the easy button with him already in the first preseason game. The offensive line at the tackle position feels underwhelming. I know they just paid Skoransky in the middle there, but like everywhere else, it feels like they have a weakness.

I'm just not, I want to buy this, like, massive coaching improvement over the Callahan's with Sala and Dayball. But, like, this is going to be, I think, a lot of newness for the Tennessee offense. It looks like they want to funnel, like, a lot of. 120 targets to Wondell Robinson, the free agent receiver they brought in from New York, paid him a ton of money. But like small catch radius,

need those balls to be accurate. Carnal Tates a rookie. Maybe Ridley is this guy, and we'll see more of him in the regular season. But it's hard to have any reaction after that one game. Obviously, it's one game. But looking at the Titan starters against again, Niners, backups, they look bad.

Okay, so there's two parts of this to focus on. I think probably the big, let's start with the big one. And that is Cam Ward, believer or non-believer. And I sort of remember you even going back to last season being like, I know I know the film guys are saying they're still bullish on Cam Ward, but I'm not so sure.

Is that kind of where you're at with Ward as he enters his second season? Because I think there will be some people who predict that he's going to make a big leap this year. And it might not result in the Titans being a playoff team. But like, if you're a Titans fan, you want at the end of this season to be like, all right, Cam Ward really has potential. He looks at the very worst, like competent, maybe above average starting quarterback that we can project being our guy for years to come. Now, as we know, there's no guarantees that that's going to happen. So where are you not just based on what you saw? Because I did see Cam Ward snaps in that preseason

game. And it was a lot of the things we saw last year. Inaccurate, questionable decision making. It just feels a little panicky at time. Like it's a countdown until he does something crazy. And you weren't sure, is that a rookie being a rookie? Or is it more than that? So where are you on the potential for Camboard to make the leap versus the potential for the Titans to being like, I don't know if we actually have a quarterback at the end of this season. I think, of course, with the talent that he has, there's always going to be potential for him to be a crazy starting caliber quarterback in the league in the same way that there's always potential for Anthony Richardson.

Now, I have a higher opinion of Ward than Richardson even after his recent preseason game. But with Word, to me, it's like, why with second year quarterbacks, right? Do we all? I mean, I shouldn't say all, but do I think there's always among fan bases, especially this assumes second year jump. when like when you look at data, it suggests that oftentimes it's more of a second year slump. And you saw it with Stroud and you've seen it with Daniels and like not everything stays the same. And guess what's changing with Cam Ward? The entire offense, his number one receiver.

The offense, like you have, I think, I think so much newness that like it's also, I think, fair to expect that it might not be great right away. Even though I think going into this first preseason game, I'm like, holy shit, Brian Callan and his dad were terrible. And maybe just having Sala and Dayball here, two failed head coaches, maybe I'm missing something there. But like, having Dayball and Sala is going to be like dramatically improve this team. I like the Simmons contract. I like what they added on defense. Like it feels good. But now kind of pulling away, it's like, well, what if it takes

time for Cam Ward to figure out this offense? What if it takes time to figure out Robinson is this go-to threat who needs a ton of screenwork? Like, what if the Titans are slow out of the gate? And then all of a sudden, because they aren't like a super talented team and a young team with new coaches, this is kind of like a middle if not, underwhelming season for a second year quarterback that like I said,

everyone thinks shock when Kellyn Moore, year two, big jump. Max Kellerman on Game Over is like, we have our quarterback. Jackson Dart. He's the future. It's like, how are we blindly bullish and confident on quarterbacks when like, obviously so much can change, right? Like we are game to game with these guys because of how important they are to winning games. I think it's always important to, when it's a rookie quarterback specifically, to add context

because most rookie quarterbacks are not going to play well. And maybe we'll talk about another one later in this segment. But just for context, Austin, I was looking at the last 10 years of rookie quarterback performances. there's been 32 rookies who have basically started in their first seasons. Among that sample, among 32, Cam Ward's rookie season ranks 26th. The guys below him, Justin Fields, Deshawn Kaiser, Zach Wilson, C.J. Bethard, Bryce Young, and Josh Rosen. So it's not great company of guys who bounced back and had great careers.

I will say, Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence, Josh Allen, those guys were not good as rookies, and they did make something of it. But that's just to put into context kind of what we saw of him as a rookie. I think the Josh Allen comp has to die eventually because, like, he was literally built, like, it has to. One of one. Please. Legitimately. I remember covering him when I was a writer for San Diego State's newspaper, and he was at Wyoming in the Mountain West Conference. We played him twice that year down the stretch. And, like, you just immediately saw that, like, he was just the freakishly big athletic superhero quarterback. And I feel like, obviously it took time. He developed with dayball. But, like, I think,

For me and how it kind of comes back to Cam Ward, and I feel like I want to talk about this with Fernando Mendoza as well, the number one overall pick for my raids, is what did we learn from Cam Ward playing all last year? If anything, I think Dayball might have walked into that room and said, forget everything, literally forget everything from week one. All we've got, right, is some sparks, some highlights, some things we're excited about.

Now we're going into year two, expecting bigger things. And now, like, the expectations are actually arguably after a terrible season, higher. Even after all the data, you just presented, him being as terrible as quarterbacks we barely even name anymore. we're still really excited for this year two with Cam Ward. And I feel like it's just, again, young quarterbacks especially, number one overall picks, things that like your team is going to be four years in the hole.

If this doesn't pan out, there's so much blind optimism going to year two. And like, again, it's one preseason game. We're overreacting. We still need to watch more team. But like, again, I feel like I came into this year wanting to look at Titans 7 plus wins, Titans, maybe Dark Horse make the playoffs. But until I see something better from the starters going against backups in the preseason, like I'm fading this Tennessee team

until these two failed head coaches and a quarterback we still don't know who he is yet does something relevant. So you mentioned the coaching situation last year and I would have, I mean, Brian Callahan, that was just an all-time I mean, one of the worst coaching performances. And his dad. His dad was on that staff. I want that known.

Yeah. Well, I mean, listen, if we're going to call out every coaching staff that has a family member on it, maybe we will. It's going to be a lot. That might be a good pot. Maybe next off season. We go ahead and do that. But, you know, I think the assumption that Brian Daibald is going to come in and just, man, he knows what he's doing.

I don't know where this comes from other than Brian Daibald's own, you know, propaganda among the media or whether it comes from just living off of being next to Josh Allen for a couple years when really what we realized. Sounds Adam Gacy, the more you think about it with Gayson Manning and Gason Rogers. Like, we got to see it. We have to see it with Cam. And like, if you had to argue, is Daibal coaching for his job? closer to coaching for his job or feeling really secure?

Same question for Sala. I would say, you know, this year looks like shit. Both those coaches might be looking at, you know, being scapegoats after the season, especially if the fans want to still be bullish on their number one overall pick, Cam Ward. So he, like Tom Brady has said. I say preseason is a liar. And Austin saying, one and done.

Sala and Dave All, you're out of here after what I just had to watch during the first week of the preseason. Again, the jury's out until next week. We're going to be watching more tape. We probably should move off the Titans. That's on me. Hold on. I just want to make the hammer home the dayball point because the resume here, okay, so he had a good first year with the Giants, you know, with Daniel Jones and they make the playoffs. The next two years, they finish 29 and 29 in EPA per drive. And you can say,

Sheel, come on, look, they didn't have talent. What? I wasn't paying attention, Austin. What did Daniel Jones do once he left Brian Dayball? Did he? Oh, only the like the biggest story in the NFL last. year leading the number one offense in the NFL. So I don't understand why I'm supposed to believe that Brian Daibald is going to go there and, you know, the offseason, it was like he was this hot commodity. Everyone's fighting over Brian Daibald. I'm like, was no one paying attention in the last two years here? So yeah, that I have a question about the old line. I have a question about Brandon Thorne has them as the worst offensive line in the NFL. He did his projections on established the run and he

had the Titans 32. And then the first point you made. You want to talk about guys sending two AM texts. That's Brandon Thorne about offensive line plus. If the Titans are 32nd, that means something's wrong. Something's really wrong. And they have big investment along the offense line. They just made Skronsky one of the highest paid guards in the league. This isn't an offensive line that's like trying to figure it out. They've like, Latham's a first round pick.

It's weird. It's going to be interesting. And it's like, do you trust it? Because you mentioned earlier, Sala and Brian Daevall combined 36 games under 500 as head coaches. So I'm sorry, Titans fan. Listen, this is probably two. negative of one preseason again, obviously.

But I have to be honest, I'm going through my team-by-team breakdowns, and the under on the Titans was one of my favorite, you know, I like that one quite a bit where I'm like, wait, this team's going to get to seven wins, this team with this old line, but I want to believe in Cam Ward. I will say this. The NFL is more fun if everyone's laughing at us for this pod in week seven or week eight, and it's like Cam Ward came out and the talent showed, and he looks like one of the bright new quarterbacks in the NFL, because when he's on,

He is really fun to watch. He's got the peaks. Even last year in that train wreck, we saw the peaks. It's a matter of consistency, and it's a matter of those valleys maybe not being so long. Okay. If that's the case, I'd like to see it against Seattle in Nashville next week. These are preseason games that he's going to play. Must win?

Not must. No. It's not a must win, but like, could I see some good play? Like, could you play well? Like, Drew Aller, I mean, Ty Simpson's getting unworldly attention already. I mean, if Cam Ward had Drew Aller's game or Haynes King's game or Carson Beck's game, even Fernando Mendoza's game, we're having a completely different conversation because obviously we're one week into the preseason and we got two games left. There you go. All right.

Let's take a quick break. We come back. We get to more of Austin's takeaways from the first week of the preseason. This episode is brought to you by EA Sports Madden NFL 27 powered by the all new persona engine. Here it's your league. Every decision you make counts. And for an extra challenge, get the kickoff bundle. It comes with the college football 27 and Madden NFL 27 standard editions.

From campus legend to NFL superstar, make your rise with the kickoff bundle. Learn more at EA.com. Rated E for everyone with mild lyrics, users interact, and in-game purchases includes random items, conditions and restrictions apply, scan QR code for more info. All right, we are back here on the Ringer NFL show. All right, we covered Kim Ward and the Titans, Austin. What do you have? What's number two here?

All right, I've been teasing it. Let's hit Fernando, okay? Let's talk Fernando a little bit. You are a Raiders fan, so I'm very curious to hear how excited you are, how unexcited you are, what you think. Go ahead. Diehard Raiders fan, lifelong Raiders fan. I was there for Jamarcus Russell and who was selected number one overall.

Couldn't be more different quarterbacks we have now at first overall, and I think we have a much, much better plan, right? I mean, Jamarcus Russell's rookie year was ruined because he held out for a contract when rookies could still do that. But for now, like, there's a TED talk, essentially, that's about 10 minutes long circling the internet. If you look for it, deep for it, where Tom Brady kind of explains why developing, Tom Brady, by the way, Tom Brady, the best quarterback ever. He explains why developing quarterbacks now is so bad because they rush them in with high expectations and dumb down the offense because coaches are trying to win now.

because guess what happens when you're drafted number one overall? You're on the worst fucking team in the NFL with coaches like Matt Iberfluse or Callahan or Urban Meyer that might just completely shit away your initial season. Right? Like just lose it. And then with the Raiders, they're not even in that situation with Kubiak,

kind of betting on him as this long-term offensive play caller that should be with Kubi or with Fernando for the rest of his career. They have stability at coach for the first time in a very long time, right? They have fired 14 head coaches since the year 2001. The average for the NFL in that span is seven. No other team is higher than 11. They've rebuilt and reborn every two years, essentially. Now they actually have a plan where Kurt Cousins, even if he starts out horrible and they're

one in 12 to start the season, it's setting better expectations and giving more time for Fernando to learn what has to be a very complex, motion heavy, multiple personnel offense for Kubiak to thrive, as we saw when he brought Sam Darnold a Lombardi. So the fact that they're sitting him on the shelf and tempering expectations and people are clawing at him starting sooner and blah, blah, blah, that's a better situation than trying to rush him in and make sure that everyone can start having takeaways on Fernando Mendoza as soon as week one. Because there's no rush to winning in 2026. You know that the long-term plan is Mendoza. And if it takes time until he's ready in the offense, understands everything, I think the best plan, their buy is late this year. Week 13.

They have five games after the buy, three straight home games. It's Denver, Chargers, Titans, Road Cardinals, Road Chiefs. He gets three straight home games out of the buy, two shitty non-division teams, and then all three division rivals to prepare for 2027 when things start to matter. That, to me, is as close to the Chiefs Alex Smith plan, or even like other plans where we've gone into the year wanting to sit the no-man-over-all-pick. We wanted to do that with Baker until Hugh Jackson was so bad that he had to start. We wanted to do it with Herbert until Tyraud Taylor got stabbed in the lungs.

We wanted to do it with Carson Palmer, and then when he got his time, started to look good. golf the same way. You look at number one overall picks specifically. When you go into the season with the plan to sit him, you look back on history and time and time again, it actually ends up leading to better results. I think this is the perfect situation for Fernando. And I don't think I want to see him sooner than week 14. Wait, so you actually believe that they would be willing to start Kurt Cousins and go one in 12 and sit Mendoz on the bench. So you do think this is a just a, this is a Brady decision, a Brady edict where he basically told everyone in the organization, this is what we're doing.

We're not straying from this plan. This man is not seeing the field until Week X. I was convincing people, when people, you know, before Pete Carroll was let go, I still miss him, by the way, before Pete Carroll was like that they were going to want him done him. Like they were ready to want him done him. And the day that they did, the first thing the Raiders release is that this is Tom Brady's decision now.

Tom Brady is going to pick the next head coach. Tom Brady is going to pick the next quarterback. And that's where we're going. because Mark Davis, because he's fired 14 different regimes of the last 24 years, does not want to touch this team anymore. He doesn't. He wants someone else to make the decisions and someone else to take the blame. Brady is all over the Kubiak decision,

which somehow the Raiders, arguably one of the worst landing spots, added the best offensive play call are available in the offseason with 10 openings. Don't know how that happened. Maybe it's Brady. And then you layer in this additional idea that, like, Mark Davis, like me and maybe others, trust Tom Brady on how it developed a quarterback position almost blindly. Maybe that's dumb and it ends up like. his NFT situation or the Brady brand that's been deleted or the whatever else.

Everything else in his life post-playing career is what I was going to go out there. It's been really bad. But like this is, I'm not asking him to be an announcer. I'm asking him to tell, you know, Fernando how to get under center. Like legitimately. Like get under center. Okay. But how often is he hands on and they're like he's doing a bunch of different things?

And you're just handing him the keys and saying he's going to have a great plan for the Raiders and Mendoza. And I trust Tom Bras. Like, why do you trust Tom Brady? I know that sounds stupid for me to say, given his playing days, but this is a very different job than going and preparing for an opponent and playing quarterback. I know he's good at that. I know he was great at that. I don't know that he's good at this job. And by the way, we have zero evidence that he's good at this job other than, I mean, listen, you're very excited about landing the guy who had the 16th ranked offense last

year based on EPA per drive. Don't even start. This guy's a winner. What are you doing? You're going to disperge, Cooperage? Put him in the whole thing. Fernando? My God. Oh, you're talking coops? No, No, I'm talking about Coupiac. Coupiac just took Darnold to a Super Bowl and you're calling him washed. I don't understand. They were 14 and 3 the year before in Minnesota. You know, maybe there was a little more talent there. I don't, I can't with you.

I can't. If you go back and watch the All-22, which I've done twice now on the Raiders Cardinals game, look at the offensive line. Let's remind the audience. The Raiders' offensive line. Of the pre-season game, you've gone through the All-22 twice? Of course, of course. It's the Raiders.

Oh my gosh. But last year, the Raiders' offensive line was coached by Brennan Carroll. He's only ever had a job in the NFL when he's working for his dad. Pete Carroll. The Seattle offensive lines he coached were the worst in the league by pass blocking efficiency. Remember the Ben Jocomini years, the Germaine of Fetty years? Oh, those were great. Then he comes back, first time back in the league, coaches the Raiders,

decides to switch up the entire interior. Colton Miller gets hurt. And then the offensive line has meetings without him because they were trying to get better. That's what was happening last year. So you bring in, and Chip Kelly, who's now been somehow golden parachuted to Northwestern, and I can't wait to watch that team, was calling plays that he did not install in practice. So you're going from that lack of detail to Kubiak

and an offensive line now. And I can think of investment in the tight end with Bowers and Mayer. And I think they're receiving things a little bit overblown because they're going to be in so much 12 and 20 personnel. I think the improvement for the offense, and I say this every year because we've rebuilt every two years less, whatever. But I honestly think this is the time you see this offense take a major leap. because the Kubiak edition, the Linderbaum edition,

those two alone, with Bowers Healthy, with Colton Helly, healthy, it's going to be massive. I think the Raiders are going to be surprising, offensively at least. I think defensively, it could still be a nightmare. Wait, surprisingly, I think they're a number on this. Like, how good do you, with their, like, I think they're top 12.

No, you don't. You think the Raiders are going to have a top 12 offense this year. That can't be true. Okay, let me reshape. Let me reshape this to top 14. Name their wide receivers for our audience who has not grinded the all 22 film of their preseason game twice. Trey Tucker, maybe one of the most underrated receivers in the league. Just go watch the

tape. They brought in Speedy Nailer, speedy for a reason. I don't even think he's going to play that much. Jack Bessch looks better now than a real coach is coaching the offense. The offensive line is healthier. Obviously, coached by a better offensive line coach in Rick Denison, Kubiak. And then they're not going to play that many receivers. This is a Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer operation and Cameron Hayward, who looks really good in the 34, transition from the 83 in Pittsburgh, is now going to play full-time fullback for them. They're going to be in two wide receiver sets all the time. So I don't really care if they don't really have more than two good receivers because they're not going to play that many. Brock Bowers is six foot three,

235. You want to look for the wide receiver one. He's right there. I mean, just I could picture defensive coordinators staying up at night. How are we going to defend Connor Hayward and Michael Mayor? No. Oh, wait for Michael. The Mayor of Las Vegas just heard that. Just heard that. Okay. He just heard that. All right. So here's what I'm going to do, Austin, because you really, I like, listen, I like when someone makes a bold proclamation, and then you ask for a follow-up that they don't cower. You know, you felt the heat. You could have been like, well, I don't know.

You didn't do that. You said top 12. If they are top 20, go out. What metric do you want to use? EPA, DVOA. Let's go combine, you know, success rate and EPA. Let's go, let's go combine, like kind of composite. Yeah, yeah, okay, I got you.

If they finish top 20, I will buy you dinner. Now, I'm not expensing it because a lot of times. A lot of times we see. see each other, you know, where it's at a work thing so I can expense it. I will buy you a non-expense dinner at any restaurant of your choice if they finish top 20 in EPA. I'm coming to Philly for that because that's a avenue. I can't wait. That would be great. I would love that. People would love to see you. Now, all right, so Austin's on board with the Raiders plan, sit Mendoza, start cousins. Austin, here's where if I was like presenting to Tom Brady,

I'd be like, Tom, listen, good to see you. First of all, thanks for joining us in Vegas here. wherever you were running the team from earlier in the week. That was fun too. But Tom, I like your plan with the quarterbacks. But you know what? I kind of think with Mendoza, maybe we don't need to do that. Because did you watch him in that preseason game? His head wasn't spinning.

He looked good. He was firing inbreakers, tight windows, outbreakers. He was making a bunch of different types of throws. Did you see that? Touchdown passy he made. He was protecting our receiver in the end zone. And Tom, this guy's got great intangibles. We may showing up earlier than everyone in the,

the morning, he's leaving late, he's all about football, his teammates love him. So we don't have to worry about him the way we would a normal quarterback. And here's the thing, Tom, from a team perspective, one of our analytics guys was doing the research. The average rookie quarterback generally performs like, let's say, the 26th best starter in the NFL. And you know, cousins who were going to start here? Last year, he was like the 25th best quarterback in the NFL statistically. So if we're just convinced that Mendoza can give us average start rookie average start quarterback play for a rookie is probably going to be around the same level as cousins. Plus he's getting all those raps. I don't think he's going to develop bad habits. What do you think? Maybe we just throw

them in there week six, week seven. What do you think, Austin? Did I convince you? I think I'd laugh you out the room and fire you because you're crazy. You came to me. You're so Brady Pilled here. No, listen, you came to me and said, you watched more preseason. I don't think anyone can have takeaways from preseason. Did you say that? And so then your pitch would be to go to Brady and say, fucking Mendoza looked good in one preseason game against backups. And you're like, well, Brady, he looked good.

Oh, you've seen the practices. You see the practices. Listen, I have a conspiracy theory. Wait, wait, then you throw on top of that. That like, well, technically Brady, the 26th, the rookies plays 26th. And Mendoza, if he could get to 24th and take 40 sacks and play like shit

and everyone have a takeaway and is like, you just told me their line's going to be good. But maybe it's not. they're photoshopping Michael Sarah under Fernando Mendoza after primetime games. And like I said, maybe he's wired differently. Your friends aren't, your teammates aren't, your family isn't. He's still going to see it. Yeah, he's only on LinkedIn.

Still, everyone else in the room can see it. He throws three picks in an island game. All of a sudden, he's JJ McCarthy in that one meme. Like, those takes aren't worth it. Because these games this year don't matter. And that's what Brady understands. It doesn't make sense to aim for average quarterback play and maybe make the playoffs

in a division with Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and fucking Sean Payton. Like, this isn't the year. You need time. You were going to trade Crosby in the off season and completely reset. Take your time, build this right, and don't try to aim for the analytics or overreact to this one preseason game. Play your game. Trust your plan. There's no reason to react. Okay, but reps do matter. I think even Brady would agree the way you get better the most is to play in games and learn from what that's like. Well, then you should go watch his TED Talk because he says you probably shouldn't play as a rookie until you understand the offense completely. Now,

if you tell me, for Nana Mendoza, yeah, maybe he does. Maybe he does. Yeah, maybe he does. Like, if you start to see reports that, like, Fernando's ready, he understands the offense better than Kirk. Let's start seeing some reps. Let's go. But if like even... Are we seeing some hints of that, Austin?

We are, but it's one game. We're one game in. No, but I'm looking at some of the comments Kubiak has made recently. Like, I had the conspiracy theory that he threw Max Crosby and Kirk Cous. He suspended him for the practice so he could have Mendoza get some first team reps there. I think he also did that because I feel like, I mean, he bought every player on the Seahawks roster of Bible last year. Like, he's a guy that I feel like has like a standard.

And he made the Raiders earn their shield in training camp. Like he's got like a traditional kind of like high school, you know, Chuck's vibe about him. It's why I think him and Mendoza are going to really work together along with kind of cringy-ass Brady, but just do it on our time. Like we do not have to rush anybody in. We're not playing this game for anyone else. The Raiders have been at the bottom of the NFL for as long as I can remember.

Let's take our time. All right. So you know the infrastructure of this team, the power dynamics. the management set up better than anybody I know. Let's say it's week seven and they're two and five and cousins is just falling off a cliff. He looks like one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. Because it does matter to teammates, you know, whether you're actually playing the guy who gives you the best chance to win.

And Mendoza is crushing it in practice. And he just seems like he knows the playbook inside and out. He's, you know, in the meetings, he's pointing out stuff that they're just, they've never seen from a rookie before. and Kubiak goes to Brady and has that conversation, Tom, I know what you said. I'm with you. We're on the same page here.

But I do think we need to reevaluate this. How does that, is it, does Brady just have the final say on everything and Kubiak's not even thinking of having that conversation or how does that conversation come? I'd be absolutely shocked if Brady's opinion is not had on when Fernando plays. I think his opinion can change.

But I don't think it's going to change based on how good Fernando plays in practice or in preseason if Kirk is even just serviceable and giving us an opportunity to evaluate the other players on the roster. Kirk let a touchdown drive in that game. Obviously, Fernando looked good too. It's the Kubiak offense that's really speaking. But if Kirk is like what you said, 20 second, you know, in that range,

and the Raiders aren't losing games because of the offense or unable to evaluate offensive skill players because of the offense, but it's the defense that has questions in the secondary. Crosby's kind of by himself along the D-line. Like, they brought in new linebackers, but it's a lot of newness, new defensive coordinator. I think that they could be losing games because of the defense, but the offense still looks okay,

even if it's not the ceiling we expect. I think what's really going to determine if Brady shifts off this plan or even Kubiak shifts off this plan is if, you know, Kirk completely bottoms out, which is very much in play or gets hurt, right? That I think is going to be the hard like, okay, duh, we got to play Mendoza. But if Kirk is serviceable,

like I'm talking Alex Smith, the year that the Chiefs traded up for Patrick Mahomes serviceable, I don't see the reason for the Raiders to rush him in. Like the Chiefs, yeah, I didn't draft it Mahomes first overall, but they trade up in the first round to go get him, and they still stayed calm. And now Alex Smith was a different caliber quarterback than Kirk is now, but I think they see it as a similar situation.

All right. Last Raiders question before we move on. Max Crosby, is he on this team after the in-season trade deadline? Really depends on the start, obviously. I think that if they start out terrible, I think they're going to look to move him again and field calls and be okay with not getting too first because, as they should, right? And I think they're going to be okay with not getting too first. because all of the capital is going to be in 2027. And if we know anything already about this 2027 class,

is that good non-quarterbacks are going to fall in the first round because there's so many quarterbacks that are expected to kind of dominate those first 10 picks. Arch Manning, Lenore Sellers, Dante Moore, Messdemeaker, C.J. Carr. We could probably keep going down the list. Sam Levitt, there's so many quarterbacks that are going to be in people's draft guides starting in October that teams are fawning over. And then next thing you know, good offensive tackle slips. Colin Sinnons from Texas Sliffs.

Guzby, give me Guzby. Give me Jeremiah Smith. I'm already thinking 2027, baby. Look out, look out. Okay. All right, okay. So Austin says maybe Patriot Max Crosby. All right, what's the next take?

That was lively. We might have to do, maybe we do like a social-only shield and Austin yell at each other about the Raiders weekly. I mean, that could do numbers, I think. Okay. All right, Austin, what's the next takeaway from preseason? I'm gobbling up the garbage time Browns. I'm calling them the garbage time Browns this year for multiple reasons.

One, the first is we are not going to, I think, market correct responsibly to how bad the Browns defense is going to be compared to the way they've been over the last five years. And it's not because just Miles Garrett. And they added Jared Verst, I think that mitigates some of it. It's that Jim Schwartz, the defensive coordinator, literally quit on the team. Like, literally quit on the team. Like, he wanted to be the head coach. They went with Monkin, Schwartz leaves.

And you lose Devin Bush. And you lose Miles Garrett. And Malik Collins is still recovering off the pub. and his backup has been dealing with injuries in August. Like, you start to stack this stuff up. There's so much newness. New defense coordinator. No Miles Garrett.

Monkin, in his first year coaching, by the way, older guy, first year coaching, whose focus probably is going to be 100% on the offense because he's going to look himself in the mirror as a 60-plus-year-old man and say, my defense is not getting better without Jim Schwartz and Miles Garrett. So I think the Browns are going to be shit on defense. And offensively, they're going to be in this position.

We really haven't seen them where they have so much skill player talent, Quichon Judkins, Harold Fannie. Denzo Boston, Casey Concepcion, even Jerry Judy. Like they have Dylan Samson looked good in the preseason that if they're in these games, they're down 30, like they weren't all these past years. Even if Watson and Shadur look as bad as they did in that preseason game, which I would say is middling to bad,

I still think that this offense is going to be very fantasy relevant. And honestly, like, I could see them maybe finding their stride for a couple games and shocking some people because so many people are just all the way out on the Browns for obvious reasons. The quarterback room is the most disgusting in the league. and, you know, the defense, I think, is going to get significantly worse. But I think the stock is so low that I'm just going to gobble it up right now. And, like, I'm looking at Brown's offensive skill players in fantasy.

And I'm thinking about betting them in stretches where I've like, there's both defenses are bad. And I think the offense can step up. Just because Solac had his, you know, viral tweet about Denzel Boston, this and that. Everybody gets all excited. All right, Solac, we saw that. Settle down. Okay.

You know, it could be great. I understand Brown fans if you're excited about the rookie class. They do have some fun young players. I'm with you, Austin, about the defense. I think there's some thought that their defense is going to be pretty good this year. And I like Carson Schwessinger. And I like Jared Verst, but I look around and I'm like, wait, who are the other really good players on this defense? And I'm with you on Jim Schwartz.

I feel like he's maybe the most underrated defensive coordinator of like the last 25 years. It just feels like he has a strong, strong track record of being able to coach up defenses. And you have that and you have losing Miles Garrett that I don't think their defense is going to be very good. I just, my only question with the fantasy stuff is just like, are the quarterbacks going to be able to reach a level where those other guys are relevant? Because they just could have, you know, they just could have the worst quarterback in the NFL this season. That's not going to be shocking to anybody. Probably, I think that's definitely in play, but I think that's priced in.

Like, is there a single random casual fan that thinks the Brown's quarterback room is good? Like, I think people would rank it 30 second across the board. That's the time to buy because I watched Dylan Sam, Sam. with some real scoot, take a screen like 40 plus yards. And like I see, I know Harold Fanon's, a tackle breaker who dropped a third down that could have extended a drive in the beginning. I know, you know, they had to Sean,

you know how the Browns feel about Deshawn Watson? They had him playing behind the backup Brown's offensive line. In the first drive, he was behind the starters, which are, you know, essentially five brand new starters. Kevin Jenkins is coming back, but they completely rehauled the four other starters. And then they kept playing Watson behind the guys who play behind those guys.

And then you're like, oh, man, he's under pressure all the time and kind of looks like shit. And then there was that fourth. where he has the sack and obviously it looks bad, but like, oh my gosh, he was playing with five, like, legit brand new starters on the office line, backups to their starters and didn't look that great. Neither did Shadur. Munkin only cares about the offense. And he has so much skill player talent and a quarterback that like everyone is already all the way out on. I think that's just, how do you fade the Browns at this point? Is there even a way to like fade the Browns?

I don't even see how it's possible. I do like Munkin too. No one wants to watch them. He's coaching for his job, right? Munkin is, We'll get fucking thrown out the room if the offense looks like shit and they think it's his fault. He's coaching for his job and a big part of his job is making this quarterback room chicken shit into chicken salad. And I have more confidence in him doing that than completely buying the side

that thinks it's going to be the worst offense than the NFL hands down. My favorite stat about the Browns quarterback room, Austin, is that the last two years there's been 78 quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks. Among that sample, Chador Sanders last year, ranked 77 and DeShon Watson 2024 ranked 78. The worst two quarterback seasons

of the last two years are competing for the starting job. And even with Watson, like I'm sensing some people wondering like, hey, maybe I'll be a little optimistic on. Watson's played 19 games in the last five seasons. Like even if he comes out... Yeah, even he comes out and like,

oh, he looks all better the first two, three weeks. It's like it's very unlikely that that's going to last. But yeah, you are right about the skill group. I am excited at least to watch. those guys two who kind of proved themselves last year and then the rookies who are coming in this year. All right, Austin. Number four, what do you got? What's the fourth takeaway from preseason? This is kind of a couched take because I think there are harder takes to have. I mean, you could be a bit more aggressive here. I think John Harbaugh's giants could suck out of the gate. Just like not

not be good. I think you could take out of the gate would be a stronger take. And I want to go stronger. That might be my take. Yeah. And I'm fine. That's fine. Maybe that is. that take. I do think they're getting, you know, I do think that like they have talent and, you know, maybe, maybe there's a path here. But they open the season, um, on Sunday night football at home against Dallas. And then they, that's prime time game, island game. And then week two, week two, they're going to SoFi, cross coast, Monday night football against the Rams. That's their first two games start the season. Those are two island spots against probable playoff teams. Some people have Dallas winning the NFC. The Rams are literally the Super Bowl favorites.

and I think we're going to come out of those Owen 2 possibly and the blame bus is going to get gross it's going to be Roman it's going to be Greg Roman it's going to be Nagy they're going to get Callahan mixed in they might get Tyrone Tracy's ass the offensive line could go at blame

Jackson Dart will still be trying to understand what's happening at that time but like Scadabo 2 but like they're going to be the blame bus is going to be gassed up buddy gassed up by oh and 2 if they start two island games where Dart ends up in the medical tent,

which has happened in 43% of his games, according to Scott Barrett, including the preseason. Or Scatabo doesn't look 100% coming off a crazy broken leg. Or Malik Neighbors coming off an ACL doesn't look 100%. Or the defense with brand-new defensive coordinators doesn't look good out of the gate.

All three of the Giants starting cornerbacks are hurt. And the starting cornerbacks are Pulsina debo, Drew Phillips, and I'm forgetting the other corner because it's a no name, but he's also out. Like they have three hurt corners. I just, I think the Giants could suck. right out of the gate. And I think they could start O&2, kind of be a lost season from there. We know only

like 13% of NFL teams make the playoffs after starting O&2. And if the blame bus is already going around, it's not going to be a healthy work environment. I'll say that. So the big story from their preseason game, you mentioned, you know, Jackson Dart going to the Blue Medical 10. So Tyrone Tracy misses the Blitz pickup. Jackson Dart gets rocked. So this wasn't

one where, oh my God, Jackson Dart's being reckless. No, he was standing in there. The guy was supposed to be picked up. He wasn't picked up. He gets rocked. He goes to the Blue Medical 10. afterwards, he's upset. He's like, you know, it's a head scratcher to me. It's puzzling. Why I keep getting sent to the Blue Medical 10, I think the athletic set said that last year he got sent there five times and one time was a concussion. But like...

And another time, Brian Daibald was in there too. Oh, yeah, Brian Daibald, just like, a man. That was just, that was unbelievable. It was like, get him out here. It's like, all right, his brain might be scrambled. Brian, do you mind if we do a couple tests here? You know, you might have like a lot of of damage from this. Daibol's like, I'm trying to say my job. I mean, that said a lot,

I think about Brian Daibol. But listen, I think there are plays that Jackson Dart makes that you totally see it. Even in this game, he comes back in. Now, it's not in structure. I don't know if he's ever

going to get there in structure, but he makes the play. He's scrambling to his left. He throws a touchdown to Malachi Fields. Everyone's all excited. Let's say that I can assure you that Jackson Dart is going to be

relatively healthy this season. What are fair expectations? for how he actually performs. Are you bullish on his talent if he can stay healthy? Because if he can stay healthy, we can all agree. That's a question. Are you bullish on his talent and his ability to perform if he can stay on the field? I feel as bullish as anyone on Tyler Shuck or Cam War.

Honestly, like, hey, second year quarterback showed some things. Brand new offense. Shuck's not in that situation. He's getting that continuity with more. But I think for DART, like rookie quarterbacks, you see some positive things, but you need consistency, right? Because it's a position where if you get sent to the medical tent, half your games, it matters.

If you make bonehead decisions, even on two, three, four percent of your plays, you're losing football. Like, you're losing football games. Like, I think Dart, it's easy to say he has all the talent in the world. He's lightning quick, strong arm, and looks competent and like a leader out there, but you need to see it game to game.

And part of the reason you haven't is because he keeps getting hurt. And he doesn't even understand why when, like, there isn't another quarterback in the league taking hits like him. He's the only one who's taking hits. had to tell him to slide in practice. How am I getting hurt when I'm being told to slide in practice? Like that's how you're getting hurt, pal. Like you're getting hurt because you're being reckless. And Scadabo's a little reckless. This team feels a little reckless. And you get a little wet and reckless. You start 0 and two in two Island games and everyone's phones buzzing with

a Michael Serra meme on your face. Like, it's going to be a little different. And I don't think Harbaugh is going to be blaming himself. I don't. I think it's going to be other people. I mean, well, he does, he does need to look in the mirror with the offensive coaching staff he hired. I mean, you mentioned that. Nagy, He is looking in the mirror with that, though. Like, it's a scapegoat process. You know, he managed did that on purpose. Like, it's like, oh, the offense doesn't work.

I might just fire all these guys that have been fired before. Might as well. That's one more shield in front of me. Joe Shane's still up there, probably get a toss. Like, again, like, John Harbaugh's not going to be to blame if things go south. And there are a lot of reasons, like real reasons, injury reasons, schedule reasons, youth reasons, newness reasons to expect this to kind of at least be like a stumble out of the gate versus what it was billed as is like, the Giants got the home run of the coaching, you know, Carousel.

Like they got Harbaugh. Oh my God. They got an adult in the room. It sounds so much like the Pete Carroll thing in Vegas last year. Bigger difference is being, you know, Pete was a lot older and was forced to work with people he didn't know, like Chip Kelly. And like, you know, you don't want to force an old person to get to work with someone they don't know. Like, it's just not going to fly. And like, I think this is a little different in that Harbaugh is working with people he does know.

But still, I think there are similarities in that we're just assuming this monster leap because Harbaugh is this, like, you know, professional experienced, you know, playoff caliber coach when, like, you know, you ask Mallory Rubin, as big of a Ravens fan as I know, they're, they're ready to see Harbaugh go, right? You even ask the owner, and that a lot of fans are Ravens for her. And it's like, okay, like, you're expecting this big improvement from a coach that the Ravens didn't even want. That, it's starting to add up, right? With a coaching staff that everyone hates, I don't know, man. And a lot of injuries, it's going to be a weird season. I think it's going to be a tough season, potentially. There are pockets of talent, certainly. You know, the old

Ryan could be decent. Malik neighbors, Abdul Carter, Brian Burns. It's like, sometimes you look at the depth chart and you're like, I can kind of see it. You know,

it's just... But they traded away Dexter Lawrence, right? I know. I know. They could have the important defense in the NFL.

Yeah, they really could. Throw out his talent, like a leader. Like, he was like the longest tenure giant, I believe when they moved on him from him like a thief in the night

when Harbaugh was just ready to fucking go. Like, just done. Like, I'm gone. It's gone. If you're going to trade a guy, of course.

Like top 10 10s, compensation. I want to ask the Giants defense that's rostered this year if they really are happy about that 10th overall pick, which I believe is Francis Marinoa, because they're missing sexy Dexie, who has not just been the reason their run defense has been up there, but also a really good pass rushing nose tackle and someone that has been on the team leading the huddle for fucking what, 10 years? It's a big change. Look at you. You're all smitten by Dexter Lawrence's leadership ability. That might, listen, we might have to circle back. I mean, that guy has fucking, like, legitimate, like, gravity, dog. Obviously, because he's all right. I think it's more gravity because he's the size of a planet, but like the players huddle around that guy. He's the reason they knock. All right. There you go.

Austin, great job with the preseason takeaways. I feel like I'm up to speed. I know what matters. What did it matter? Now, we didn't mention Jeremiah Love. Do you have anything to rant on with Jeremiah Love having the high ankle sprain on his 14? Freaking Kerry?

Are you serious? You said it's a high ankle sprain? LaFlohawk said it was not nothing. He said it was nothing. Oh, no. but now it's a high ankle sprain. Now it's a high ankle sprain. Interesting.

So he tried to poo-poo the injury. When you go back and watch that play, by the way, it's a clear hip-drop tackle, which you hate to see. But Jeremiah Love is not only getting his 14th touch of the first half of the first week of the preseason. That's grounds for firing. Grounds for firing. But also, when you see him looking down to his ankle after a clear hip-drop tackle where I'm like jumping up and down at my screen like, holy shit, he looks hurt.

He's looking down at his ankle. Lefleur's looking to the next play like he's calling the two-minute drone the fucking Super Bowl. Man, I'm calling a timeout because they need. Let's go, why not? It's like, hey, love! Whoa, whoa, whoa. Like, they're, they're, they're, they, they call time out, love gets pulled out. We don't really hear about the injury.

The broadcast is not even talking about it because it's home broadcast. I'm watching Kirk Morrison and Rich Gannan and talk about the Raiders. But then out of the gate, Lafleur's like, oh, it's an ankle, we'll see. And then like, now it comes out, it's a high ankle, which is like the worst anchor injury you can get. And then you layer in, that's their first round pick. Their second round pick, Chase Bessontas on his 70th snap of the preseason is now out for the season. He tore his knee. I think it was his knee. Then you have their third round pick, Carson Beck, who looked good in that Hall of Fame game,

now out missing time with a rib injury. And their fourth round pick, Caleb Proctor, defensive tackle, missing the entire season with an injury. So all four of their first four picks in the rookie class are all hurt, including Jeremiah Love. After his 14th touch of the preseason, Bessontas got 70 when he's competing to start. Reckless. Make it make sense. I don't. I can't. I can't. Horrible.

All right. Let's take a break. We come back. I'm going to hit Austin with some takes that I'm chewing on, and he's either going to talk me into them or talk me out of them. All right, we're back here on the ringer NFL show. All right, so here's the idea, Austin. It's almost prediction time, right?

We're going to all go on the record in the next couple weeks. Here's going to who's going to win the Super Bowl. Here's who the surprise team's going to be. Here's who's going to make the playoffs. I have three takes that I'm considering. And all my little documents and spreadsheets over here, I'm like, I think I think these things, but I'm not totally sure. I'm going to present you with the cases,

and you're going to help me either push me over the top and say She'll go with that as your friend, as your trusted confidant. I want you to look good. I don't want you to get old takes exposed. You're going to be good with this one. Or you're going to say, shield, don't do that. I'm telling you, like, you're going to regret this in December. I've got three of them.

Are you ready? Yes. Okay. First one. The Minnesota Vikings are a playoff team. That is my first one. Often, these varying spiciness. These aren't like, I'm not telling you, these are all like the craziest boldest

predictions, but I don't think most people are picking the Vikings to make the playoffs. I think that I'm going to have them at 10 and 7 and a wildcard team. And here's the case. Kyler Murray, when you're watching him, feels like the most high variance quarterback in the NFL. However, if you look at it statistically, he pretty much ends up in the same place after every season. He's ended up between 12th and 21st every single year.

If you look at EPA for play, he's played football. So it's like he's most likely going to give them mediocre quarterback play. And I know we're not hanging banners for mediocre quarterback. play. But when you look at what they had last year, they might hang a banner for mediocre quarterback play because they had bottom five quarterback play in the NFL with the guys they started last year. So on the offensive side of the ball, I think they can reach a level of competence and mediocrity. And on the defensive side of the ball, I'm just putting my faith in Brian Flores. I'm adding those things up, above average defense, average to above average offense.

And I think they can get to 10 wins. and I feel like they're getting slept on in the NFC North Austin because they are plus 5-10 to win the division. And I actually don't think there's a huge gap between them and some of these other teams. All right. Where are you on this? I think it's something I can entertain for a second.

But I think where I struggle is even if Kyler Murray, who I think is going to win the job and unless it gets hurt, will play over J.J. McCarthy every game, just based off what we saw in the preseason, but also what we saw last year and knowing what problems Kyler Murray can solve when the offense doesn't have an easy win versus J.G. McCarthy can barely even hit the easy wins versus create outside of that.

But the problem with Murray is even if it nets out to be like average or even slightly above starter average EPA, I still think the week-to-week experience with Kyler is so rollercoaster. It is. First half the season, second half of the season, stuff we saw with, you know, the cliff, like Cliff Kingsbury falling off the cliff of the second half of the season. So I've been calling the Vikings high fits. kind of helped me, you know, Danny Hyfitz is the Ringer Fantasy Football Show,

help me kind of put this together. But I'm calling them the pump and dump Vikings in that. I think that the Vikings are going to start the season pretty warm. And you're going to see some of the stuff that you're seeing where, oh, Kyler is competent. Oh, the offensive line is kind of good. That is Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hawkinson. I thought Aaron Jones looked pretty spry in the preseason, just a couple touches that he had. And then defensively, you have one of the best defensive play callers in the game. Like, I think Brian Flores is that good. and you're going to get these just easy, easy turnovers, short drives on the other side of ball when you go against bad quarterbacks because Flores just choose them up, like we saw with Dart and the Giants even in that preseason game.

So I like the Vikings a lot, like week to week, but I feel like the volatility with Murray and the injuries and the second half of the season. And then also the volatility, even with the defense, right, I think he's the best week to week game play caller. But there are better offenses, better defenses that have seen the Flores stick before and good quarterbacks can still chew them up. Their secondary still isn't that good. So I don't know. I think I'm afraid. You're telling me to chew on it or sleep on it a little more. I just don't think I'm rushing to place any season long positive bet on the Vikings right now.

I feel like there's still so many questions. Like if you're bullish on Minnesota, bet them week one. Like bet them week two. Look at their, look at their spreads in that area. Or if you're like thinking this offense is just going to be better, maybe you're a fantasy buyer of Jefferson above value, Aaron Jones above value. But I don't know, season long bet on the fucking Vikings. I think my bullish take is that the Vikings fans are going to turn on Kevin O'Connell.

at some point in the same way that Dolphins fans like maybe needed to move on for Mike McDaniel even if he is this you know arguably best offense to play caller in the game because I think there is going to get to a point where I think Kevin O'Connell did a really good job getting his name off of the Sam Darnel decision and and to go with JJ and that's why Quese Adolfi Mendofi Mensa doesn't have a job anymore their GM but you go through this season and it doesn't look good at all with Murray it doesn't look good again with McCarthy and they still have all these weapons and a good offensive line it's like okay I guess we'll give Kevin O'Connell another but is Flores going to be there next year?

I don't know? Don't you think they would be justified, Austin, to Turda? It would. It's interesting. There are coaches who, if you put them in this situation with this talent on offense,

and you told them Brian Flores is their D.C., I do believe that, you know, Shanahan, McVeigh, we could go through whoever you think the best coaches in the end. I do believe that those guys would be able to get this team to the playoffs.

So I do think in a way, it's kind of a fun referendum. Is KOC actually that guy? Because if you look at it, their offenses have never finished about 14. I forget if his DVOA or EPA per play, his best move has been hiring and being able to work with Brian Flores

and staying out of his way. That's kind of carried him. Honestly, yeah. And then you want to give him credit for that Sam Darnold season. I mean, fuck, Kubiak took him the whole way. Right. They were better. Sam Darnold looked like garbage in big games against good defenses in Minnesota

and everyone blamed on Sam Darnold because that's all we knew of him before. But like, should we look at KOC for a second just to see how it feels? Like, is Cliff O'Connell anything? because Kyla Murray's back. I'm interested to see if he can really do it. Because I think we get, especially if you're hot in this league, you get quick to be like, this guy's a quarterback Worcester. You see it with Stefansky, you see it with O'Connell,

you see it with Kingsbury. You know, I think it's a question between the Lefleurs right now. Is Michael Lefleur hotter is the fantasy show doing that? Are they just doing quarterbacks? Are they saving next year? So it's quarterback's this year. Coaches next year. I think D.C.

to get in the mix. Yeah, of course, of course. Okay. Listen, you help me as my friend talking me out of that. I don't know that the pump and dumb Vikings, few and high fits, I don't know that it's going to stick.

Maybe table that one and, you know, brainstorm a little bit, but maybe. I've been wrong before. You know, I've been wrong about the Vikings. Someone's got to try something around here. Next one, Austin. The lion, we're staying in the NFC North. The lions are a Super Bowl sleeper

in the NFC. So here's the thought. Everybody who doesn't care about content and just wants to, they're going to pick the Rams and the Seahawks to come out of the NFC. And I don't blame you. They are the heavy favorites in the NFC to go to the Super Bowl. But when you're in content, what you got to do, you have to look beyond the big favorites and say, all right, who from this next group from the rest of them might I actually pick?

And I keep coming back to Detroit, but I also can't totally get there with Detroit. So here's the case. Last year, they're nine and eight. And that was like the year from hell. They had the second most injured team in the NFL, according to adjusted games lost. And by the way, the advanced stats really liked the Lions last year. Again, do you hang the banner for that? I mean, I would if I were an owner, but they're probably not going to do that.

But they were third in DVOA behind only the Seahawks and the Rams. They were one of only two teams to finish top 10 offense, top 10 defense, top 10 special teams. So they got some bad luck last year. They weren't really as bad as 9 and 8. So I look at that and I look at this year and I say, you know what? They face the second easiest schedule in the NFL. If you go by Super Bowl odds, their offense still has a lot of talent. They're 45 and 23 under Dan Campbell.

I have questions about their defense, but the offense is reliable, easy schedule. I think they can win a lot of games. I think they can win the NFC North. And maybe they are the biggest challenger to the Rams and the Seahawks, Austin. What do you think? I'm all the way in. All the way in. I'm a big Lions buyer.

I have some small capital on 11. Plus wins for the Lions. I think they're a dark horse to win the NFC. I think they're a dark horse. Mostly because I'm really just buying the offense again. Even with the Cade Mays injury, they signed Cade Mays Center from Carolina in free agency, gave him a nice deal. And they've been trying to figure out this Frank Ragnall whole Hall of Fame Center that they tried to bring back last year.

And then they find out he had like a torn something and couldn't actually play. But like they brought in Cade Mays. He's hurt. They're going to now bring in Juice Scruggs, who they traded for from Houston to start at center, which I think is interesting because they have three guys. eyes before the maze injury that have over a thousand snaps played on their bench along the offensive line in Ben Barch, Drew Scrubs, Scruggs, and Larry Borum. So they were kind of surprisingly fit, I feel like, for this injury, and they understand how important it is bringing in

Blake Rogers to Clemson offensive tackle in the first round. I think Penasual moving to left is going to work like a dream. I think overall, when you look at bringing in Drew Petzing, he's someone who's experimented in the past with six offensive linemen. You know, the new meta is, what if I had 12 personnel? Ooh, what if I did 13, three tight ends? Well, they're bringing on these Jackson Hawes, Nick Betaker types or Sam Roush types because they're better blockers that can kind of catch. What if you have an offensive line that's kind of interestingly, you know, and Detroit has played with this before with Dan Skipper, you'll fit to bring in a six offensive line and try some of this stuff out. I think they're an interesting one there. And with Gibbs and them wanting to give him like, you know, a thousand carries this year.

His backup, Pacheco has already hurt. I'm interested in their run game. You know, when you look at last year, why their offense struggled, I think some of it was the offensive line. But it also was John Morton, right? Weeks 1 through 9, this was one of the worst teams in the NFL. at creating explosive runs on the ground. I think it was bottom five an explosive run rate. When John Morton got let go and Dan Campbell took over play calling,

a guy who's not an offensive play caller, by the way, they immediately shot back up the top five. So there are easy buttons, as Dan Campbell knows, to press in this offense to get explosives on the ground. Some of that's competition, some of that gives being healthy, but I like the line's offensive line, even with the Cade May's injury. I love Gibbs, obviously.

I think golf, when protected, which I think I'm assuming here is really good. I think petting is an add to what they had with Dan Campbell over last year. And then defensively, that's where things are time to start to fall off. Brian Branch and Kirby Joseph, their two projected starters at safety, are still on the pup recovering from injuries.

That worries me. They cut Terry on Arnold after the arrest of the, you know, on the eight felonies. So this secondary kind of beat up, right? No Terry and Arnold, no Kirby Joseph, no Brian Branch.

I could see their defense in the secondary specifically struggling, but I'm buying this offense and I'm buying kind of Dan Campbell and petting overall. I think this is the right kind of dark horse bet in a loaded NFC when everyone wants to bet the Rams to win the Super Bowl.

Yeah, we're like in the exact same place on this. I'm with you on Campbell. I'm with the reliability of this offense. I mean, you know, they've had different, they obviously had Ben Johnson, and then like you said, they tried John Morton last year. It doesn't work out.

If you look at it, I think the last four years, they've been, you know, top eight in offense by any metric. You look at it. And again, that's been with sort of different talent, different coordinators in there. The defensive part scares me.

If you're listening to this and you're like, okay, you guys are just going to gloss over the fact that their two starting safeties, by the way, who are two of their best defensive players, they have no idea what they're going to get from them this season. That's what's really holding me back because I don't think their defense was terrible last year. I think it got worse in the second half and it got exposed at times. Overall, I don't think it was terrible. I was actually surprised looking at some of the pressure and sack numbers because in my head, I'm going, they have Aiden Hutchinson and nothing else. But if you look at it, they were seventh in pressure rate, sixth and sack rate last season. Man, we talked about Max Crosby in the first segment. Yeah.

If they traded for Max Crosby, I think I would just be going all in and being like, go win with the pass rush. It's the exact team to do it. He's a mission guy. It's the same team that have an easy schedule. They have an easy schedule. They should be, they should be like. You could just see it. Yeah.

It makes a ton of sense. Yeah. And it does right by Crosby, which they tried to do. And like I said before, the plan is not 2026. The plan is 2026. that's when we're going to get Fernando really unleashed. Yeah, listen, their defense could be horrible and this looks stupid, but I do feel good about a lot of aspects of this football team,

and I think they're going to bounce back in a major way. I like them to win the NFC North, and Austin is with me on that one. All right, last one here, Austin. The Bengals are going to win the AFC North. Okay, so they are plus 184 to win the AFC North. Ravens are minus 112. So Ravens are the favorite.

I think it's kind of a coin flip between these two teams to win the AFC North. I think it's closer than those odds indicate. The big thing I'm looking at here is when Joe Burroughs healthy, and I know that's a big if, but listen, we don't know what quarterback's going to be healthy. We could say that about so many of these different quarterbacks. What he's healthy, their offense is good. It was that way last year when he was on the field. It was that way in 2024.

It was that way in 2022. I don't have to bore you with all the numbers unless you want some proof, but they've been top eight all those seasons when Joe Burrow has been healthy. He still has Jamar Chase. He still has T. Higgins. Career low sack rate last year, Austin, for Joe Burroughs. So the offensive line, it's not great, but it might be good enough. And the question, once again, comes down to the defense.

And did they do enough not to get them to a top 10 defense, but to get them to like the 25th best defense with guys like Dexter Lawrence and Boye-Maufe. and Brian Cook and maybe corner DJ Turner builds on a strong year from last year. They also have a very easy schedule, 30 easiest schedule in the NFL, Austin. So I fall for the Bengals almost every summer. Some of our other friends here at the Ringer will try to talk me out of it or tell me, Shield, it's happening again. You got to check yourself.

Are you going to tell me that this year or are you with me on the Cincinnati Bengals? I can't ride with you. I'm sorry. I can't do it. I think on paper, the on paper bangle are maybe everyone's favorite team in the league. I'm out because I think that the Zach Taylor of it all needs to come to roost.

And, you know, he's kind of like, you know, hot and cold on how much he should play his start in the preseason because his September record is so loudly awful. And when you go back and watch, you know, the Bengals against Detroit's backups, their starting offense, yeah, a couple nice burrow throws. But I saw another offensive line with some injuries. or some worries and, you know, Zach Taylor on 3rd and 15 calling a screen and kind of hanging

it up. Like, it felt like we were already in midseason form with this offense, you know, trying to kind of just go. Like, I think Zach Taylor's biggest problem is he kind of just does whatever Joe Burrow wants, right? And like, I was going to bring up this stat at the end of the show. But in the preseason so far, the league average for under center percentage is 44%. The league has not averaged 44% under center for any season since 2012, when Adrian Peterson one MVP. It is a completely different game if we're no longer in 11 personnel all the time and we're in the shotgun. It's a completely different game when we don't only need passing explosives because the defense haven't caught up yet and linebackers are still fat and slow and safeties

aren't running too high yet because the league has changed. Mike McDonald has changed it. Mahomes has changed it. And if I know they're trying to get under center more and the Bengals under center percentage is higher, but like if if they're running, they run into friction with this offense and let's look at the start of the season. We got bucks at home, interesting. and then you've got to go on the road to Houston. Then you got Pittsburgh. Then you have the Jaguars at home. Like four tough games to start.

And if they get out of a sloppy start, I don't think it's going to be the offense blaming Burrow. It's going to be the offense blaming Zach Taylor. And I think he's a sneaky bet for first coach fired. And Joe Burroughs is going to get into his 30s now. Like, are you going to waste Joe Burroughs's entire career on Zach Taylor when it's very clear to me? And I feel like other people who watch the offense,

that it's stale and behind and too catered to Burrow. Okay, but it's good every year, Austin. I mean, I can always hear, everybody's obsessed with under-center play action. It's good because of Burrow. Okay, but Burrow wants to play that way. So it's easier for you to say, Zach Taylor doesn't push back on Burrow. If I'm Zach Taylor, I am connected to Joe Burrow.

If Joe Burr doesn't like me, I'm out the door in 24 hours. But by the way, we're not losing because we're not going under center. Obviously, I agree with you. If they brought in a coach, it's like Aaron Rogers with Matt LaFloor. If he got with a coach who could convince him, all right, Aaron, I know you don't like to do this under center, play action, let me show you why it works. Can we come up with some hybrid and it wins two MVP's?

I agree with you. That conversation would be great and Joe Burrow could benefit from it. At the same time, that's not why they're losing. They're losing because their defense has been the worst in the NFL some of these years. But that's because they've missed on picks in my opinion. Like Miles Murphy hasn't happened out. Shamar's doortop padding out. Yeah, I agree.

Dax Hill has already heard. Totally. I think that like. But that's not because they're not going under center. But if I told every Bengals fan right now that next year your head coach is going to be Mike McDaniel. But you had to fire Zach Taylor right now. I don't even think they'd let me finish the scent. I don't think they'd let me finish the sentence because they know that the ceiling on this offense is tapped.

And if they run into any friction at all, oh no, an offensive line injury. Oh, no, a Burrow injury. Oh, no. One of the skill players gets hurt. I don't think I trust Zach Taylor or even Burrow necessarily to be able to solve the necessary problems on offense for this to work. And if they are after this year, still going to be looking back way deep at 2021, which be five years ago at the successes that they had while Joe Burrow is going to go into his 30s when you know you age differently you think differently you've seen that with Burrow already like

I really do not think Cincinnati is going into 2027 with Zach Taylor and that bet is on this offense not looking good out of the gate and people getting frustrated in the blame game I think going around early like we've seen before and I know it's even year and I know the guys are healthy on paper but I'd be rather betting them week to week when I know every single player's healthy than actually thinking about them season long because I think eventually that there's going to be enough concern here. And we've seen it with the Bengals before, right? They held on to Marvin Lewis way too long. They don't like firing coaches. I think they've held on to Zach Taylor too long. And this year, if there's going to be any year that it needs to happen, I think

it's this one. It's partly wishful thinking because I want Burrow to play with a different office of play caller. I'm sorry. Like, I think he's one of the best quarterbacks in the league with his best friend at wide receiver and one of the best number two receivers in the league, Gisicki who we wanted, a first round tackle in Ameris Mims. Like, like, what? What else do you need? Like, it's clear what the limitation of this offense is. And like, we just want to go into another season doing the same thing, it feels like insanity. I still feel like, if I were Zach Taylor's agent, I would be like, all right, you're ripping me for all those picks that they missed on defensively.

Look at the product we put out. I think Mike Sando and his quarterback tears had some stat about like when the Bengals score 30 with Burrough what their record is compared to every other team in the NFL. And it's by far the worst in the NFL. So if I'm Zach Taylor, I'm like, I'm trying to appease my quarterback. The offense is working. And our defense is terrible because the front office has missed on a bunch of picks. I actually think that's a fair defense. Now, having said that, I also agree with

you that you could eat, obviously, you could upgrade from Zach Taylor and it would be a better situation, but are the Bengals going to be willing to do that? They feel very high variance to me. I think you laid out kind of the worst case scenario where it just doesn't happen. Defense thinks again, maybe the offense isn't as good as I think it's going to be. And Zach Taylor's out of there. I do think there's a scenario where they're legit Super Bowl contenders. If Dexter Lawrence looks like the guy we saw two years ago, if some of these picks that have, or the younger players that are like, all right, Dax Hill, DJ Turner, can you get something out of these guys? Can you figure out your personnel a little bit better?

Can you create some turnovers? A lot of times defensive statistics are about not how good the defenses play, but what quarterbacks did you actually face? Like the Patriots last year, they faced seven quarterbacks who are literally not starters in the NFL this year last year. Like, yeah, your stats are going to look better when you have that. And the Bengals on paper have the 30sies schedule in the NFL. So you know what? I appreciate the feedback. back, I still think they might win 10, 11 games. I have them in the Ravens very even where I'm

going to have one of, I'm going to have them both in the playoffs. I feel good about that. I think I'm going to have both of them in the playoffs. I just don't know who I'm going to have winning the deficient. I think betting odds price in that the most likely outcome is that the Bengals, because they're healthy right now are pretty good because the offensive is all and they added pieces on defense. Dax Hill's banged up. Brian Cook's banged up, but maybe they're ready to start week one. I'm, I think, saying this because I'm rooting for them to have a year from hell because I think we need to get rid of Zach Taylor. I think another year where even if the offense looks banana land like it did a couple years ago, but they don't make a run in the playoffs, I'm going to be sitting here

again frustrated while we're still looking at Zach Taylor as the head coach. You know how ESPN every year asks all those executives to rank the best players? I'd like to see that same interview for coaches because I don't think Zach Taylor makes the top 10. He might not make the honorable mentions. Like I really don't think so. And like if you're going to tell me not even a top 10, maybe fringe top 14 coach in the NFL who's moved on from Lou Anerumo, who was the hero of that Super Bowl run somehow. And now on his next defense coordinator, who I bet he's scapegoats if the defense doesn't work out well again, I just don't get it. Like, you're going to tell me that one of the best quarterbacks in the league is going to play his entire career with a coach that the consensus

would be he's not even a top 12, top 14 coach in the NFL. That feels like a mistake. Like that feels like a miss. That feels like the decision every other team in this division made. Browns move on from Stavansky. Ravens move on from Harbaugh. Tomlin and Steelers part ways. The fact that Zach Taylor is the last coach in this division is nonsensical to me. It doesn't make sense. And coaching staffs do not have, like you don't have a salary cap for what you can spend on the coaching staff. I was just picturing this team, Austin. What if Brian Flores was their defensive coordinator? You know, it's just like we would be probably having a completely different conversation.

So there's a lot of blame to go around in Cincinnati if things go poorly. I think you're right that they're feeling the heat here, you know, with this score of Burrough, Chase and Higgins, and the way it started, that if things don't go well, it doesn't feel like they can just have an eight and nine, nine and eight season. and run it back next season. Now, maybe we're wrong about that and we're having a conversation next summer. I know they ran it back, but I don't think that's the case. All right, that was fun. Those are the takes I'm chewing on. Listen, we've got a lot more pods between now and week one. So I will give you my official. Here's where I landed at some point here. But thank you to Austin for talking me through some of those potential takes. Sorry, thanks to Austin, Gail. Thank you to Christopher Sutton for producing Stephano Sanchez on video and additional production supervision

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