The Ringer NFL Show - Race for the 1-seed! Will it be the Broncos, Patriots, or Jaguars in the AFC's Top Spot?

Episode Date: December 23, 2025

Sheil is joined by The Ringer’s own Lindsay Jones to debate the viability of the AFC’s top contending teams as we head towards the end of the NFL season. (00:00) Race for the 1-seed in the AFC(1:37) Denver Broncos(11:09) New England Patriots(19:07) Jacksonville Jaguars(25:04) The Hurry Up: 49ers defeat Colts on 'MNF' The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.rg-help.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Host: Sheil KapadiaGuest: Lindsay JonesProducer: Chris SuttonSocial: Kiera Givens and Brian WatersProduction Supervision: Conor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgopowell Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I'm your host, Shield Capadia. Today we are talking about the race for the one seed in the AFC going into the final two weeks of the season. This is huge. Such an advantage. You get the buy in the first round. Then you get home field throughout until the Super Bowl. And there are three main teams still in contention for that one seed, the Broncos, the Patriots, the Jaguars, who would have thought the Jaguars?

What's the path for each team to? get the one seed, we will give you all of the scenarios. My guest today is the ringers Lindsay Jones. She covered that Broncos Jaguars game in Denver on Sunday. We'll talk about what we learned from that performance and predict who we think is going to end up being the one seed in the AFC. All right, let's take a break. We come back with Lindsay Jones. This episode of The Ringer NFL show is presented by State Farm. Having insurance isn't the same as having State Farm. It's like expecting the leadership of a team captain on the football field, but getting a sea captain? Sure, they're both captains, but who is going to run your offense?

You wouldn't settle for just anything for your team, so don't settle for just any insurance. When it comes to getting the help, you need State Farm is the real deal. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Lindsey Jones, we're talking race to the one seed in the AFC. Three teams, more than three teams are alive. but three teams are like really alive for this going into the final two weeks. And we are starting with the team in your hometown, Lindsay, the Denver Broncos. You were at the game on Sunday. Broncos Jaguars, Broncos lose, but they're still in good shape.

They have a 46% chance to get the one seat here. Just let's start with this. What is sort of the vibe check in Denver after I feel like the fan base has felt disrespected all season? And now they lose a game late in the season. And is it like, hey, it's all good or is it like, uh-oh, you know, this might go south? Yeah, I think there's a little bit of both. Bives are generally have been really good.

This is a great time to be a Denver sports fan because the nuggets are awesome. The Colorado Ambulanche are insane. I think they've lost like one game in the last, they're like 20 and one or something like that. And then the Broncos hadn't lost until since week three. So it had been a really good time to be a Broncos fan, a Denver sports fan. So there wasn't a ton to be complaining. about. But I do think the loss on Sunday was a bit of kind of like a wake up call. Like I think the way that they'd been winning game after game after game largely in the same way, right? Like a lot of these

really close games, clutch performances in the fourth quarter, this ferocious pass rush. Did I think cover up some of the vulnerabilities, some of the weaknesses in the defensive that we'd been seeing over the last month? And, you know, it just kind of took them out of their winning formula a little bit. In many ways, I think that they kind of needed this type of reset point where, you know, you're going to have to answer some hard questions for the first time in a little while. And also they've, you know, really tight turnaround. They're playing Thursday night, Christmas night in Kansas City. But, you know, I think this is the type of loss that they needed to maybe jumpstart a run late in the season.

Yeah, they're still in great shape. I mean, they're the team that they control their fate here. So if they win their last two games, they get the one seat. So if they win these last two games against the Chiefs, and then a big one against the Chargers, which I'll get to here in a second in Week 18, they still control their fate. So no other team can say that in the AFC that,

hey, if we just win our last two games, we're in here. But it also does get a little tricky because the Chargers play the Texans this weekend. And if both those teams win, right, then the Broncos go into Week 18, and they're saying, we're the one seed going into Week 18. but then if they lose that week 18 game against the Chargers, not only are they not the one seed,

but now they're a wild card team and they're going on the road in the first round. So it just felt like they've been in the driver's seat. They've been feeling good this whole time. I tucked myself into them a couple weeks ago that no, they can't actually win the Super Bowl. I was wrong about them. That week 18 game against the Chargers

suddenly really looms large. Yeah. And I think, you know, I had really, I'm a skeptic, right? I mean, I think people who know me in this media market, I've been covering the Broncos for a really long time. I think I'm time to get kind of like a Debbie Downer reputation. Like it takes me a little while to really buy all the way in.

And I was at the Chiefs game about a month ago, and I left that being like, well, you know, I still am not all the way in on this Boenick's offense or whatever, but the math is working in their favor. And I was kind of like, this is going to happen strictly because of the math. And now the math like is kind of in their favor, but not nearly as much as it was. It was a few weeks ago. So yeah, it's really wild that you could go from the one seed to a wild card that quickly.

And yes, they lost on Sunday at home to the Jaguars. But if any, if you took anything away from that game, the Packers game the week before, the Chiefs game in November, it's that the home field in Denver really matters. This is becoming once again a really, really, really difficult place to play. and huge credit to Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars and the way that they handled that because there was a little bit of stretch early in that game the first couple series

where it felt like the crowd was going to take the Jaguars completely out of that game. And they handled it. And I don't think a lot of other teams are going to be able to do that. So I think the Broncos are in a position where they need that home field because it can be a huge asset come January.

So yeah, the next two weeks are going to be really, really wild. and I'm very interested to see what sort of, you know, coaching comes out of this loss and what sort of adjustments they can make. I don't know how much we're going to learn against the Chiefs on Thursday night. Yeah. They didn't exactly strike me as a team that looked like they wanted to be playing football anymore. You know, I guess potentially, you know, the very end of maybe the end of the Travis Kelsey are people will want to show up and cheer for that on Christmas night. But, you know, I'm very curious to see, especially defensively,

what sort of levers they're able to pull. Because I went to the losing Broncos locker room for a bit last night. And it wasn't like this super somber. It felt like angry. Like guys were like, they realized that they got their ass kicked for the first time this season. And, you know, the two games that they lost early in the season, it was a late field goal to the Chargers. and it was that leverage call, play, field goal game to the Colts back in September.

But they hadn't really gotten like, yeah, like I said, their asses handed them. It just has not, that's not been what's happened. And when they have fallen behind, you know, they've had this kind of lever they've been able to pull on defense where they just crank up that pass rush a little bit. They're able to keep, keep games close, force field goals, give Bo Nicks a chance to, you know, turn into whatever superhero he is able to do in the fourth quarter. And that kind of fell apart. And Nick Minito, one of their best pass rushers, he was really angry.

Like, he stood there and he had like a puffy coat and he like zipped it up all the way. I know if you're listening, but he zipped it up basically to his nose. And he kind of stood there. And to his credit, he answered every single question. But he frankly, he said, I played like ass. He took it. Like he was shouldering. It said it was my fault.

We weren't getting to Trevor Lawrence more than they were. And he said that frankly, the truth is that they haven't been playing well since the bye week. And I think that's true, for the defense specifically, that this is about a month now that things have been different for them. And yesterday's game, this loss to the Jaguars, revealed that in a way that these close wins have not. Yeah, that was the most surprising thing is that Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars

just went up and down the field against them. I mean, I could have, going into it, I could have been like, okay, yeah, I can easily paint a scenario where the Broncos lose this game. It's like a three-point spread. but I didn't think it was going to look like that. I mean, he was carving them up, and we'll talk about the Jaguars here in a minute, but that certainly was the most surprising aspect of this.

And like you mentioned, we're not really going to know this week if they found answers. I mean, unless if they are giving up yards to the chiefs, yes, that will be like, all right, panic button right away. But it really, I think week 18 will get a feel. All right, a lot on the line, bad Chargers offensive line. Can they dominate the way they've dominated in the past, defensively. So I think that's fair.

And just to your point about the consistent competitiveness, that's been like the most impressive part of this Sean Payton experience to me. You know, last year, they only lost one game in the regular season by more than seven points. Like you said, this was the only game all season. They've lost by more than seven points. Just their style of play, they generally figure out a way to be competitive even when they are losing. So I'm curious to see how I totally agree with your point about home field means more to them, I think, than maybe any other team.

the NFL. Like if they get home field and the buy, I'm going to go, yes, the Broncos can get to the Super Bowl. If they're a wild card going in, I'm going to be like, no, I don't think they can win three games on the road and get to the Super Bowl. And that's a wild season. So maybe I'll end up on their, you know, nobody believed in us real weeks from now if they get to the Super Bowl. But that's kind of how I see the Broncos right now. Yeah, I mean, everybody that's left in the AFC right now probably has some sort of, you know, they can all play that. Nobody believes in us card, except for, I don't know, maybe the bills because you have the reigning MVP, but the Broncos and Jaguars certainly are having like, nobody believes

in us. No, nobody believes in us. Like they're just kind of fighting over to have that mantle. And, you know, I guess right now it's the Jaguars because, you know, the small market thing, whatever that means. That was all kind of silly. I was sitting there second row when Liam Cohen said that. He had a smirk.

He knew exactly what he was doing. And good, you know, good for them. And, you know, good for them for giving the Broncos the kick in the mouth that they probably needed. There you go. So Broncos again, Broncos win their last two games here. They are the one seed. They control their fate. They get the tie break over the Patriots because of win percentage in common games.

But, you know, if the Chargers win this weekend, then that week 18 game is huge between the Broncos and Chargers could bump them from the one-seeing. to a wild card seat. All right, let's take a break. We come back. Let's talk about the New England Patriots. All right, we are back here on the Ringer NFL show. So I mentioned the Broncos have a 46% chance. That's courtesy of the athletics playoff simulator.

Patriots, not far behind them at 38% here. So Patriots are right in this. They've got the Jets and the dolphins in their final two games. Again, the Broncos own the tie break. over the Patriots here. So you basically need to win your two games and the Broncos need to lose one of their final two games. And then the Patriots get home field advantage throughout

and they get the one seat here. How should Patriots fans be feeling after that win over Tyler Huntley? Lamar J. I don't know. I don't even know who it's over. Ravens' defense, Tyler Huntley, half a Lamar Jackson. They did win the game and they still got a shot here. But I don't know, Lindsay, like, did we learn a lot about the Patriots in that game? Or how do you feel about them going into the final two weeks here?

Yeah, I mean, I feel like that game told me a little bit more about the Ravens and the way that the Ravens season has kind of just gone. There's a lot of contenders for season from hell this year. And I think the Ravens are very much among them. But they lost in the ways that they have been losing two, too, too often. But in terms of the Patriots, like if you're a Patriots fan, I think you need to be feeling really good because this is, kind of the way that you're going to need to win in the playoffs.

Like their defense, not great, right? I don't know if there's anything that they do particularly well on defense, but you have a quarterback that is going to be able to win you every single game. And look, sometimes we spend so much time talking about, you know, getting really into the analytics and, you know, studying the film and everything. But once we get to January, so often is, like, is your quarterback good? like do you have the guy and you unquestionably have the guy and if I'm a Patriots fan I'm feeling really good and very confident that in probably every single game that you're

going to play the rest of the way I don't we don't need to talk about the matchups with Brady Cook and Quinn Uers that are coming up over the next two weeks but everybody that's going to be in this AFC playoff field and look we know who that field is going to be right I like my chances of my guy versus your guy when it comes to quarterback. I would love to see another Patriots Bill's game. That would be phenomenal theater at some point in the postseason. I think it would be really fun to see Drake May versus Justin Herbert. The film nerds would lose their goddamn minds, I think with a Drake May, Justin Herbert. I say that lovingly to our dear friend Stephen Ruiz. But I just, I would like my chances, right? I just, you know, I don't feel great about a lot of the

stuff that's going on with that team right now. I think there have been some downward trends with the defense, some, you know, still some very significant questions about the playmakers that they have. How serious is this trae beyond Henderson injury going to be? You know, but there's just those type of questions, but you got the most important part figured out. And that's what's going to matter in January. I really, you know, I was digesting that game on Sunday night and we didn't talk about it with Billy yesterday because I knew we were going to talk about it here on this episode. And to me, now, listen, you are an MVP voter, so I'm not, I'm just, you know, I'm voicing my opinion.

That was another reminder to me while I'm still Drake May is the MVP. Like you just said, defense is not good. Offensive line is not good and injured. And that game, he just had to put the team on his back and make ridiculous throws. And he's throwing to like Stefan Diggs was great in that game. But Stefan Diggs just like, I don't understand what's happening with this season. He like disappears for three weeks. And then he comes back and he looks like one of the 10 best receivers

in football. So that's what he looked like on Sunday night. But there's like Mac Hollins, Austin Hooper. Again, all due respect to these guys. But this isn't like, you know, Pooka Nakuwa and Devante Adams and Sean McVeigh, the supporting cast. And the way he's, you know, he just kind of puts the team on his back at times. And it's not every time, you know, a couple of weeks ago, the narrative was, oh, man, he didn't come through in the clutch against the bills. It's like no one does it every single time. But he did it against the bills the first time. He did it in this game against the Ravens. And I just feel like when he drops back to pass and has time, every single time I feel like it's going to be a completion. And it's not like guys are wide

open. Like some of those throws are just tight windows, put it where only your guy can catch it. And it's not dink and dunk. It's not like, you know, the scheme has been fine. But a lot of those throws, especially on Sunday night, which is like the quarterback is being aggressive downfield and his guys are, you know, able to finish the plays for him. But he is, He is so the driving force behind what they're doing. So, yeah, I'm with you. Like him versus Josh Allen, that would be fun. Him versus Justin Herbert.

That would be fun. But he's going to give them a chance. And I thought that was the type of game that they're going to have to probably play in the playoffs. Because their defense, when you're getting, you know, carved apart by Tyler Huntley there in the second half, it's like, what is this going to look like in the playoffs? They're going to have to create turnovers. They're going to have to be bend, but don't break. The running game's not very good. It's going to have to be like, if they're in the Super Bowl,

we're going to be like, oh my gosh, Drake May just went on a ridiculous run in January, and that's the reason they're there. Yeah. I'm glad you kind of brought up the scheme and what the scheme is doing for him, because I was kind of prepared, you know, you and me, we've had a lot of conversations over the years on the podcast and certainly in our, you know, offline conversations about Josh McDaniels and what kind of coach he is. And, you know, I think the scheme is helping Drake May some, but I think all the,

Ultimately, Drake May is reviving Josh McDaniels' career. And I just want to put this out here. If you are an NFL owner listening to this podcast, welcome. Hello. Thank you for consuming the ringer content. Don't call Josh McDaniels. Don't do it. Don't look at Drake May and his success this season and say,

I want to hire the guy who's responsible for that. And if you're Josh McDaniels, don't take a phone call. Just stay. Just stay in New England. It's great. You left before, you left like a generational quarterback. Just stay. It's great.

Things are going well. Really impressed by the coaching job that everybody there in New England is doing. And, you know, I don't think the Patriots, your Patriots fan should be like super, you know, overconfident. But at this point, if I had to pick who's going to get the one seed, I'd probably pick the Patriots. And this will get me in trouble at home. So, yeah, my daughter's friends, dads are going to start texting me.

What did you say? I can't believe you'd say that. But I said it. It's fine. I honestly feel the same way. I was doing this exercise and I'm like, what do I actually think is going to happen? And I kind of think the Broncos might lose that week 18 game against the Chargers. And I don't think the Patriots are going to lose to the Jets or the Dolphins. Now, again, the Broncos are the favorites to get it.

But I'm with you. My gut kind of said, like, I don't know. I kind of think the Patriots might end up getting this. And it is big for the Patriots as well. Because I was looking at this, Lindsay, if they're the two seed. So if it stands how it goes now, if the Broncos take care, of business, the New England Patriots would either welcome potentially to Houston Texans, the Buffalo Bills. I mean, these are the kinds of teams they could potentially welcome.

Now you're at home, but they would be underdogs against the bills and they would be slight favorites against the Texans defense that against that support and cast, I mean, again, Drake May would really have to elevate everyone there and who knows if your tackles are healthy. So I think you've got to take care of business the last two weeks, get the O line. healthy, see what happens with the Broncos. But they absolutely have a chance. I mean, they absolutely have a chance with the quarterback in this weird season. All right.

Last two we got to get to. Who would have thought the Jacksonville Jaguars? What if you made this prediction in August that the Jaguars are going to be one of the teams we're talking about for the one seed? They have a 10% chance. It's not that complicated. They go 2-0 here against the Colts and the Titans, their final two games. Broncos lose one game, Patriots lose one game.

That's it. If those things happen, then the Jaguars are the ones. Now, we don't think the Patriots are going to lose a game. They've got an easy schedule. But the NFL's weird. We've been doing this long enough to know that the NFL's weird. And maybe something weird will happen. You were at that game.

You covered Broncos, Jaguars. What did you think about the Jaguars before that game? Were you one of these people giving Liam Cohen bulletin board material? And did they earn your respect, the small market team in Duval, I mean, I'll – Lindsay, how do you feel? Yeah, I'll be honest. I wasn't giving them probably a ton of thought period one way or the other. They were kind of a team that was –

Oh, man, she's giving them that. I don't even think about you at all. I know. I know. I'm sorry. Like, I mean, they were kind of a team. Look, they played in division where the Colts jumped out to this, like, ridiculous, you know, hot start where it was – it felt like this foregone conclusion by Halloween that

the Colts were going to win that division, you know, maybe, you know, and the Texans had that slow start and the Jags had a slow start. And, you know, they kind of started putting together this, you know, this wind streak here. A little bit under the radar, right? And, you know, look, it's kind of sometimes hard to get super excited about the AFC South, the entire, you know, that entire division. But I've been slowly paying attention over the last couple of games, I think, as Trevor had been put, had been stacking games without turnovers.

Because the thing about him is that like when he's on it, when he's on his game, like, he throws as pretty a ball as anybody else. He can be as in command and in control. And then all it takes is that one moment. And his like interbozo comes out. And he has a game like, you know, that Cardinals game, I think it was exactly a month ago. I think it was like November 23rd and you had four turnovers, three picks and a fumble in that game. And you're like, you know, that kind of sits there in the back of your head.

But now he's sacked week after week after week of clean football. And I think a lot of that is a credit to him. I think there's also a huge credit to that coaching staff and the way that they been able to design this offense, the way that they've been able to exploit matchups, the Jacoby Myers influx to that offense and what that is done in the way that that's forced teams to defend them. But I just, I will say, I cannot overstate. I came away so impressed with Trevor Lawrence and that entire offense, the design of that offense. And they were kind of honest. They went into that game yesterday, not knowing exactly how the Broncos were going to defend

them. I think there was an assumption that Patrick Sartan was going to spend most of his time on Jacobi Myers. Instead, he was shadowing Brian Robinson. But they knew that they were going to have an opportunity for Parker Washington to have a really big game. He was incredible. Yeah. Yeah. He was incredible. And he was getting open. He was making contested catches. He was getting insane. I think he had 91 yards after the catch. A lot of it on two catches where he forced a mistackle and then really broke free and was able to run free. But that was really good design. And they told Parker Washington, you're going to have a really big week. He went into that game knowing he was going to have a big day.

And I just, I can't, I don't think I can like state enough how loud and insane that stating was to begin the game and how well Trevor Lawrence managed it. So that just gave me, I came away with that. Like, they can play with anybody. They can go anywhere. And if Trevor Lawrence is not making mistakes, why not them? That was, I felt that strongly about them coming out of the game. You know, they're a good test of do you believe zoom out and look at the whole sample of the season.

That's what a team is. Or do you believe in the idea that no, a team can get a lot better? And the product you see in December can be a lot different than the one you see in September and October. Because if you look at it overall, they're like, you know, 16th in EPA per drive where you would say, give me a break. That's not the profile of a team that's going to get to the Super Bowl. But right now the way they're playing, if you look at the last month or whatever, and you just watch it with your own eyes, how Trevor Lawrence is playing. I love how he's using his legs too.

Last week, it was as a scrambler. And in this game, man, to your point about the scheme, they were just dialing up the runs for him, the option runs, the design runs. And he looked awesome doing that. It's another element. So they've become very hard to do. Who would have thought that the trade deadline, you know, the shows we did that Quinn and Williams and Soss Gardner, that Jacoby Myers would be.

In recent memory, kind of. Like the most impactful trade deadline move in recent memory could end up being Jacoby Myers if they make a run here in the AFC playouts. So did not see that coming. They're in good shape to win the division. They don't have it locked up yet. But again, they win their final two games. You get one Broncos loss.

You get that surprise Patriots loss. And all of a sudden, the Jacksonville Jaguars in their small market gets to host playoff games throughout the AFC playoffs. So those are the three main contenders. The chargers aren't out of it completely. The bills aren't out of it completely, but we're talking like 2-3% the scenarios that would

get them that one seat. So it's really going to be one of those three teams. We're both on record. We think it's the Patriots and we say that. I'm already agreeing that I said it. Yeah. In a season where I can't get a handle on anything, I'm going to say the Patriots and change my mind in a week.

Yeah, I probably will too because the Broncos will probably go out and, you know, shut out the Tucson on Christmas night and, you know, everything will change. But yeah, we're on record. Can't take it back now. There we go. Thank you very much to Lindsay Jones for joining me. I will be right back with the hurry up. All right. The hurry up is our closing segment where I give you a take on news in the NFL and the 49ers delivered an impressive 4827 win over the Colts Monday night. that offense is on fire. I mean, Brock Purdy's playing at a high level.

Kyle Shanahan's in his bag. They just absolutely cooked Lou Anarumo's defense. I mean, they went up and down the field, did whatever they wanted. I was looking it up. Based on EPA per drive, it was the fourth best performance by any offense in a game this entire season. They had nine possessions. They scored five touchdowns, two field goals. They didn't punt.

They didn't punt the entire night. So the 49ers defense is not. good. We can all see that. They've been hit hard with injuries. They can't rush the passer. That might limit their ceiling. There's no doubt about it. But as I'm watching that game, I'm thinking in a wide open NFC, there's still contenders. There's no doubt about it, especially when you consider the 49ers still have a shot at the one seat. So their path would look something like the lean on the offense and hope you can win on special teams and maybe you create a turnover or two on the defensive end because it's not a sound defense. They're not

to force a bunch of three and outs, but they still have a shot, especially this year, they still have a shot in the NFC. As for the Colts, I don't know if this is it for the Philip Rivers experiment, but I thought it was fantastic. I loved everything about it, him not being afraid to fail, him not worrying about embarrassing himself, how authentic he is, you know, getting back out there celebrating touchdown passes, being around his teammates, being around the coaches. So I don't think he embarrassed himself at all. He goes 23 for 35. for 277 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception at 44 years old when he had like two weeks of training.

We really should appreciate how impressive that actually is. So I thought it was just a really cool story, injected some life late into the season the past couple weeks here. And you know what? As a fellow old Philip, I appreciate you. Good job. All right. Appreciate everyone listening.

Thank you to Lindsay Jones. Thanks to Christopher Sutton for producing Kiera Givens on social, additional production supervision by Connor and Evans and Arjuna Ramgopal. I'm Sheila Kapadia. We will be back tomorrow on the Ringer NFL show. Must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino

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