The Ringer NFL Show - Ranking the First-Round Rookie Quarterbacks

Episode Date: November 18, 2021

Nora and Mal decide to check back in on the first-round rookie quarterbacks and rank them from no. 1 to no. 5. Hosts: Nora Princiotti and Mallory Rubin Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The ringers Nora Princeati and Nathan Hubbard are on a journey breaking down every single Taylor Swift album. For all you Swifties out there, this is the podcast for you. From her most famous moments to her most obscure references, every single album Taylor Swift has it all. Check it out on the Ringer dish feed on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Hello and welcome to the Thursday edition of The Ringer NFL show. I am Nora Pinciotti. I am with Mallory Rubin. What a glorious Thursday tradition we have going here, Mallory. next Thursday is going to be Thanksgiving,

but I am so thankful to be here with you. Today, ranking rookie quarterbacks. That's what we're going to do. The honor is mine to be here on Zoom with every single album's Nora Princeati. What a thrill and what a privilege. I've seen you on CNN, Nora. Oh my God, Mel.

That's so true. You're crushing it. So proud. I wore a headband on CNN that I'm wearing, currently, I will say, it was more of an aesthetic choice for television. And for this was a little bit like, oh, gosh, I have to be visible in five minutes. Let's salvage something here. My co-host, Nathan Hubbard, asked if I'd gotten a haircut when I wore the headband because

it has like a sort of a bump. And he was like, is that hair? So, you know, as always, doing great. Okay. Yeah, I guess I could see how someone would think that, just looking at a small Zoom box. No. Maybe? No.

Depending on the monitor size. No. No. We do not give him this. Anyway, very excited for Adele. Always excited for Taylor Swift. Very excited for this podcast. Me too.

Very excited to rank some rookie quarterbacks. First round rookie quarterbacks. Yes. So it feels like we're far enough into the season where it's worth checking back in with those guys. We're going to mostly focus on what they've done so far, how they've played through 10 weeks. But it wouldn't be the ringer NFL show without out some rampant, reckless speculation. So we'll take an eye forward just for fun. And then also maybe a little bit of an eye back because it is inevitable that people are going to talk about where these guys maybe should have

been drafted if it was the right order. If teams got a job. do over right now what they might do differently. And I think it's funny. The ranking is pretty clear. We'll talk about the places where you could quibble with the order a little bit. But we just have one list because Mal and I, as usual, we're pretty in sync on this topic. Just a mind melt of rookie quarterback.

I know. I'm waiting for the playoffs when it just falls apart for us and we can't agree on anything, you know? Well, yeah. Are Juno's saying Unimind? Exactly. The Unimind. Did you go see Eternal's after we talked about?

Unimide, you did see Dune. I saw Dune. Now I saw Dune. I really liked Dune. I had a good time. So please. I will say I could have used like just one moment during Dune where I could have just exhaled. Like that was stressful.

That was a stressful two plus hours. But I really thoroughly enjoyed Dune. It's not about exhaling. It's about inhaling. and taking in the spice. I know, prolonging your life, opening your mind. Just wait until I tell you about spice beer, which is a thing in the Dune canon.

Delicious. Oh, wow. Oh, wow. This is a whole, yeah, no, I saw Dune, and I also saw the honest trailer for Dune, which is the YouTube series I very much enjoy. Would highly recommend anybody checks that out. Is there an honest trailer for rookie quarterbacks yet?

Is that what this is today? All I'm, I'm really, really, really, I'm, like, sitting here trying. to come up with a Shalame joke that pertains to Mac Jones. I just can't. I can't do it. I can't thread that needle. But,

Cé la Vee. Quezatz Hatterok. Mac Jones, Cuisat's Hotterok. Lysa Nal Gai. The prophecy has told us that Mac Jones would be arriving here on Iraqis, otherwise known as Foxborough. No, it didn't, right? Because Mac Jones got dropped in 15th overall.

There's your segue. But for both of us, spoiler alert, Mac Jones has been the most successful first round rookie quarterback so far this season. It's pretty clear cut. I need to say something before we get into the Y here. I just need a second. Okay. To speak on behalf, not of you, but of, I assume, many of our listeners. The Pats might be back and it's heartbreaking.

Can't believe it. they are pretty good. It is sort of shocking. I can't believe we're here already. So, okay, we're going to talk about Macs specifically in a second. But when I was putting together notes for this show, I was reading some stuff on PFF and they were putting together some of the Patriots overall performance metrics since week seven,

seven, not second, which would be both grammatically incorrect and more concerning. if they'd done that over that long of them. Since week second has kind of a nice, like, old English ring to it. I don't know. I don't mind it. The old week, too. Jeez.

But since week seven, the Patriots have ranked first in PFF offensive grade, first in PFF defensive grade, first in expected points added per play, and second in expected points allowed per play. That is not too shabby. It's great for the Pats and absolutely gut-wrenching for everyone who isn't a Patriots fan and who was really ready for a little bit of a break from the Patriots being good. This is a tough one. That said, it's been delightful to watch Mac Jones play football.

It really has. It really has, particularly the game against the Browns, we're going to talk about a good bit here, because he'd been sort of plugging along with just a solid, baseline of accuracy, controlled passing, not making dangerous throws, not making a ton of mistakes. And then all of a sudden where he leveled up, he'd actually had a similarly strong performance against the Cowboys, but they did not win that game. They obviously beat Cleveland handily. All of a sudden, it's tight window throws to a double covered Kendrick Bourne in the only spot where just the receiver could get it.

All of a sudden, you know, the downfield passing is there. Just deciding that a guy is going to be in a specific spot. Yep. At a moment when he's nowhere near that spot and having the confidence to pull the trigger and then the accuracy and the ball placement so that it works out, that was what Mack had not necessarily shown, right? Like there's guys who we're going to talk about later like Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence, who have made some of the wow throws, but haven't had that foundation of just,

okay, the team is winning. The overall metrics are okay. The mistake, more touchdowns than interceptions, right? Like, that feels like a low bar. That's something a lot of these guys have not been able to eclipse. Yeah. But it's a good point. We should say that is that it's been a little rough.

for a lot of these guys. But we support them. There's always room for improvement. But the interesting conversation, I think, with Mac is this is still a one of the few truly run first offenses in the NFL. This is still a team that, you know, likes to use 21 personnel a lot. has, I think, moved away from using their tight ends quite as much as maybe they wanted to at the beginning of the year. They've recognized that some of the three receiver sets that have not

been the Patriots bread and butter since 2017, basically, are the best way for them to win, even though that does put more on the rookie quarterback. They still, relative to other teams, are relying on the run game now that it's, it's healthier, I think are relying more on a very good offensive line. There are some things working in Mack Jones's favor. So I think the question is, in what ways is he sort of transcending the, it's not really scheme, but it's just the level of support that's around him. I felt like the answer to that was really some of those big time throws in the Cleveland

game. He had three big time throws charted by PFF and you're just, you're not going to find a better throw than the one to born. You know, Nora, I am old enough to remember, as I like to say sometimes. Old enough to remember last week when we didn't pick back Jones as our midseason rookie of the year, which I think was actually fine and valid at the time. And you were right to notify to say even then, well, let's mark this as the clear, likely second half riser among the rookie of the year contenders

subtract, right? And the amount that felt like it changed in the Browns game, even though it actually was very incremental. And steady is kind of interesting and notable because I think you can track that steady progress through the play, through the stats, what you're noting about the confidence and that anticipatory instinct and how much that unlocks. And then the thing that really popped last weekend was that amorphous element, the intangible, the buzz, right? All these other players tweeting about Mac,

everybody talking about Mac. Like that all just felt like it moved to the four coming out of the Cleveland game. I think that there's no doubt for either. of us that if we had done this exercise last week or the week prior, our number one would be the same, right? But the gap, I think, has widened. And we're not going to spoil, you know, the whole ranking as we go, but I would just say as a little bit of a teaser that I think there are three clear tiers among the five first round rookie quarterbacks. You could maybe quibble on

the exact order of two and three within the second tier. You could maybe quibble on the exact order of four and five within the third tier. But the thing you can't quibble about, the thing that's pretty irrefutable at this point, is that Mack Jones is the only rookie QB in tier one right now, and that the gap is pretty substantial. Here's a tweet for you. This is a PFF tweet.

Quote, I love a tweet. I love a tweet, too. Love a PFF negative and love a tweet. Quote, Mac Jones, is the only rookie QB with a PFF grade above 65. side eye emoji. That grade is 87. That is really good.

It's really good. And it's not the only telling metric. You know, you mentioned the touchdown to interception ratio. He has seven picks, but three of those came in that week three game against New Orleans. He's completing nearly 70% of his passes on the season. You mentioned the big time throws. I mean, he's tied for eighth in the league overall with 17 of them. the turnover worthy play rate, which is 2.4%.

When you just look at the players he's grouped with in that metric, the guys around him on the list are not other rookie quarterbacks. They're guys like Dak Prescott and Ryan Tannahill. Like that stuff is very notable. Right. And I think he has, the other thing is it does seem like he's getting better, right? He has just one charted turnover worthy play in the last five games. games. You see particularly in the last game, just the more willingness to, I want to use the phrase take some risks, but they're not like bad risks. They're, they're intelligently chosen.

Okay, here's the moment when we're going to go for this deep throw and we're going to, you know, come up to the line with a heavy set, work out of 21 personnel, take a play action shot out of that and it's working. It's not taking risks like just, you know, throwing up an arm punt doing something crazy. That's not Mack Jones's game. And we knew that that was not going to be Mac Jones's game. It's just that the explosive play is being added to that I think are really, really, really significant. And look, it brings us, I think, to the operative question here, because it's obvious that he's been the highest performing rookie so far. I am old enough to remember, Mallory, when it was alleged that the 49ers might take Pack Jones at 3, and this was a scandal, right?

Like, this was, how dare you? What a horrible thing to do to your franchise. And it sure doesn't seem that way right now. And I wonder, you know, if you'd be willing to play Kyle Shanahan for me for a little bit. Sure. Would you feel some regret right about now? Well, funny you should ask because I was naturally going to ask you the exact same question. Love a bit of revisionist history.

Love a thought experiment. Who doesn't? I would say that if we're going into the draft due over redraft thought experiment zone here, it feels, I think, safe to assume that despite everything we've seen, despite how well Mack Jones has played, we're going to get into, you know, the other rookies shortly here. Trevor Lawrence would still be the top pick in the draft, I think. I think the questions started at number two, though, because of course, Zach Wilson went to the Jets at two.

Trey Lance went to the Niners on the heels of the trade at three. Justin Fields went at 11 to the Bears, and Mack was the fifth QB taken at 15 overall, as you noted. So whether the Jets or the Niners would have gone with Mack instead of the quarterback that they selected is, I think, worth asking and contemplating. You're right to focus specifically on San Francisco and Shanahan, though, given the links and given the amount of conversation there was.

The thing is, like, we've seen so much from Mac and so much of it has been positive. As we will discuss later, we just haven't gotten the opportunity to see a lot of Traylands. And so I think it's almost impossible to say. Like, I don't think there's any reason right now, though, again. And we'll talk about this later. There's some interesting stuff to chew on here that the Niners would be regretting taking Trey Lance. It's just way too early.

It's just not played enough to make that kind of assessment. Do they look at Mack Jones and covet what they don't have? Maybe. That's definitely possible. What do you think? I think, first of all, I think that if, and maybe this sounds obvious, maybe it doesn't. We were talking on, on, were we talking about this on the Sunday Potter? talking about this in a planning meeting for the Sunday pod.

I was speaking with some of our other ringer NFL colleagues about some conversations we've had with people around the league where, you know, rightfully so, people who work in, and work for teams, work and personnel are very often preaching, you know, it's too early to say you got to give a draft class at least a couple of years. We don't know yet, right? it's too early to pass judgment on these quarterbacks. And that's true. And I get that.

But the context for that was, I think Kevin had been asking around about like, okay, so how many teams regret not drafting Mac Jones? And the answers were all kind of like pump the brakes a little bit. I have a hard time not believing that if you gave the Jets a do-over, or not even do-over, but it was just like you can swap Wilson for Mac Jones right now.

You do it. You just do it. It just, it's, it's drafting quarterbacks is incredibly hard. We know from looking at the big picture that, you know, mistakes get made, right? Like, the best quarterback very rarely goes number one overall. It just really doesn't happen all that often. So I think given that, I think given just how extreme that the disparity in performance has been, I think it's not too early to say that.

I also think that there is an element of. of, you know, I think it was very reasonable that the conversation around Mac Jones was he's not the dual threat athlete that some of these other guys have. And if I were starting a football team right now, I would want a mobile quarterback. I would want someone who can do both. I would want someone who impacts the running game because, and this is the important part, it's because it is hard to scout those guys. it is hard to find the generational difference maker. And when you get someone who can impact obviously the passing game, but also the running game,

you raise your floor a little bit. And it gives you just more options for ways to be a good football team. I would rather make that bet. It feels like a safer bet than the alternative. That said, there was always, always, always, always a world in which if Mac was, you know, 10% more effective as a pure passer versus someone who's more athletic, that's more valuable.

That is still, you know, this is a passing game. That is still more valuable. It's just that it's hard to count on when you're scouting guys. And I think that was always the conversation. Because if you'd asked even the people I think, you know, even analysts who were shocked, by the idea of him going three overall and thought it was a bad idea. He'd said,

if this guy is the absolute best pure passer in the bunch, and that was not, I mean, that, that's Trevor Lawrence. But if that had been the assumption, or if you'd been able to count on that in some way, that player is more valuable. And, you know, I was thinking about where his rookie season so far stacks up in terms of other,

just like really strong, rookie performances. I think you argue that Herbert and Kyler were probably individually more impressive. But you have to go to Dak Prescott to find someone who was individually very, very good and the team won. And that's a pretty high barter clear. Boy, okay. There's a lot there to chew on. I have a few thoughts.

Let me make sure that I'm making my point clear here. I think teams have regrets. I think they have regrets. I think Mac Jones should have gotten drafted higher. I think if the draft were redone now, he would. Yeah, I mean, of course, based on what we've seen through 10 weeks, he's not going to be the fifth quarterback taken. I think that a lot of what you're saying makes intuitive sense and tracks.

I think that it's also like none of this stuff exists in a vacuum, right? So we can't separate Max prowess as a passer from the upside as the other players continue to develop of basically the dynamism. Like I would still ultimately rather have the overall dynamism that a player like Justin Fields or or large. Lawrence or Lance bring any certain type of offense. And that's, of course, the other thing that we have to mention is that you can't separate the player from the team. And so the idea of Mack Jones in a Kyle Shanahan offense is really interesting and really exciting to think about.

The idea of Mac Jones on the Jets is a little less a little less appealing. And, you know, Mac Jones is on the Patriots. Mac Jones is playing for Bill Belichick. Like, you can always cut this stuff any number of ways, right? That's part of what makes it fun to do the most reductive level. It's part of what makes it fun to talk about sports. We can all always find the vantage point or the data point or whatever to try to make our case. You know, you could say, well, so much of the talk around Brady the last couple years is like,

look what he's been able to do and this resurgence he's been able to enjoy the last couple of weeks, obviously. Removed from the conversation there because of the offense, because of the skill position players that Tampa Bay has put around him compared to what he was working with in New England at the end. If you go through the list of skill position players, for the receivers that Mack Jones is working with, it's not like it's the glossiest list of names in the entire NFL. But the system and the scheme and the overall approach and that run first approach, as you mentioned, is just like humming. You know, you were talking earlier about those explosive plays and finding the way to incorporate those smartly. And it almost like, you've been watching Great British Bake Off. So it almost makes me think of baking, right? And how, of course it's an art, but it also is a science.

and like the balance always has to be there and the balance of ingredients. And so, you know, I was thinking when you were talking about that of this, of this Daniel Jeremiah tweet from a couple days ago that ran through the success that Mack Jones is experiencing on screens, on out routes, on checkdowns, et cetera. And the tweet ends with, this is so smart, major and safe throws. I mentioned that because two things. One, that's insightful and doesn't have. to come at the expense of what you're saying, right?

Those two things are not mutually exclusive. Major in safe throws to quote Daniel and then fold in the butter when it's time, right? Add that spice and that texture and that richness. Compare that to something like the, it's okay to play boring football quote that that we talked about earlier in the season with Zach Wilson. The Robert Selle had to say about Zach Wilson, I believe that was after the four interception game. Right. that's a point of distinction and a contrast ultimately between Mac Jones and the other rookie QBs at this point.

So I don't know what the exact draft do-over is. I think so much of that is contingent on scheme and team and the personnel and a given offense and the approach that a given franchise is going to take. I agree with you, of course, that some teams must be having regret. That always is going to be the case when the quarterback who isn't taken first or in the first few picks outperforms the players who go above him. And that's one of our great football traditions. I think that can be true and it could also be true that it's just too soon to say like, oh, do the Niners regret taking Trey Lance?

Because we have no idea. They're barely playing him. Which I guess you could argue answers the question, though. I mean, that's what we're going to talk about later with Lance. Right. Yeah. I just, I think if you redo the draft today, I think he goes. Where do you take him?

You take him second. I think he goes second. And then he's a jet. Who wants that? Which is tough. No, I think Mac is very happy with, with how things have turned out because with apologies to Jets fans, who wants that? There are a lot of teams who I don't think would have gone through the self-scouting process of starting the year thinking, okay, we're going to be this heavy 12 personnel team. We're going to do a lot of that, you know, we spent in the off season on those guys, that's going to be a big part of the focus.

trying it, working on it, realizing, you know what, we're not so good at this. This is not, we're a pretty good 11 team. And that's a little scary when you have a rookie quarterback who you're trying not to put everything on. But if the results are just, you're better when you do that. One thing, you know, the Patriots do not do everything right. But they are fairly good at saying, hey, we're bad at this. Let's stop trying. Let's stop trying to do it. Let's do it a little bit less, right?

And that I think that's a pretty critical piece of how they have opened things up so that he can do a little bit more as opposed to just like, you know, keeping the train on the tracks that I don't know if that happens in another on another team. even sort of regardless of the strength of the roster, that to me is just like a coaching staff thing. That's pretty significant. Football wouldn't be the game we know and love without a few surprises. And Mal, we've been talking about Mack Jones within the context of the other first round rookie quarterbacks. But one thing I want to point out, and you were getting at this a little bit with

some of the turnover rate stuff and the big time throw rate. but overall, putting Mac in context with just all of the quarterbacks in the NFL, since week five, according to pro football focus, he is the highest graded quarterback in the league. Now, we've seen some other players have tough games during that time span. That's going to be part of it. But we should just make sure that we sort of expand this conversation out because while it's not that. that surprising that, you know, the order of how the rookie quarterbacks are performing is different than the draft order, right? But when you take Mack and go, okay, not only is this guy maybe out

playing his draft slot, he is among the best performing quarterbacks in the entire league, I think that's, that's not something that I ever would have anticipated at the start of the season. It's an eyebrow razor. It is quite the eyebrow razor. We talked about, we talked about his PFF. We talked about his PFF grade earlier, but as you're noting to put it in the context of the league overall and not just the rookie class, he's the fifth rated QB right now overall based on PFF grades. That's extraordinary. And the Brown's game was, I think, really clarifying and crystallizing not only because of how well he played in that game, you know, 19 for 23, three touchdowns, no turnovers pass rating of 142.1, had that 92.5 PFF grade.

And because he did that against this defense, you know, Miles Garrett got a sack, but overall, the Browns managed two sacks. Mack played well in the face of that pressure. I mean, we talked just last week here on this very pod about the defensive player of the year campaign and the overall pressure and disruptive nature of that Cleveland defense. Yep. There was also the contrast between Mac and what we saw from the quarterback position on the other side. I found this tweet really telling this is from NFL Network's Mike Giardy, quote, Mack Jones was six of seven, 103 yards in a touchdown, a passes of 10 plus air yards yesterday.

With the same variable, Baker Mayfield was 0 for 6 with an INT before injury in the third quarter. Wow. Well, so we're seeing Mack Jones not only do well for a rookie for a first year player, but be totally up to snuff with just the general quarterback landscape in the NFL and the Patriots are on a role. Now, since we are talking about all things surprisingly great, we've got a shout out the good neighbors at State Farm for offering surprisingly great rates. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Get a quote today.

All right, let's move on to our number two rookie quarterback. we're getting into that second tier, which I think is right for you to point out, because I'll spoil. We have Justin Fields second. And probably the hardest question in making this list was between Fields and Trevor Lawrence in the two and three spots. Because that's kind of your tier two of the rookies so far,

I would say. And I think the thing that that sort of groups them together is these, these are the two quarterbacks who overall the statistical results have not been great, but you've seen them make some incredible plays, some just really, really, really high level throws. And then particularly in terms of fields, he's impacting the ground game and has made some incredible,

just athletic plays. So talk to me, Mallory, about your argument for putting fields in the two spot. I struggled with this as well. This order, it's tough. I think that we've seen a lot to be excited about from both fields and Lawrence. And I don't personally feel any like panic or concern about either. But to focus on fields for a minute first before we shift to Lawrence,

it's just, I agree with your framing. Like he's just so fun and exciting to watch. And I think that a lot of the frustrating moments or the moments where he played less well earlier in the season in particular trace back to things that we and all of our colleagues have talked about throughout the year. Matt Nagy's decision making the overall approach of the Bears coaching staff, how many snaps or lack thereof fields even got early on to prepare for eventually taking over. Like it took some time to acclimate and get ready. But he's coming off his couple best games of the season and then, you know, the buy obviously. That, the Pittsburgh game, which I believe,

if I recall correctly, if memory serves Bill tweeted at some point that we'd like be talking about the officiating in that game for decades to come, right? Bizarre game, the ultimate outcome did not go. in Chicago's direction. But that was the kind of game, that scoring drive in the closing minutes, where you watch Fields and you say,

like, this isn't just going, okay, Fields is going to be a special player. Like, you watch that and that's, I don't know how you have any other takeaway, really. Here's a quote from Sam Monson, friend of the pod, friend of the Kevin Clark show on the pod. We love Sam Monson.

Great appearance earlier in the year. Fields has the highest big time throw rate of any of the first round rookie passers, as well as the highest average depth of target. That average depth of target is 10.7. Mac Jones, who we were just praising as a point of contrast, his average depth of target is 7.8. That big time throw rate, 6.8%. Those are incredibly encouraging data points so far. Now, the turnovers, I think, are the thing to obviously highlight as the less encouraging or more concerning data point. You know, he's got four passing touchdowns to Russian touchdowns.

Eight interceptions, eight fumbles. That's like yikes territory. Particularly the fumbles, I think, is like a yikes. Yes. Five fumbles in week seven and eight. His hands fumble grade is 29.8. That is really alarming. Real bad.

But there's been so much pressure. He has faced so much pressure. And again, if we're looking at what has been encouraging in recent weeks, I would point to how much he's improved against the pressure. You know, nine sacks, nine sacks in week three, still getting sacked a lot, 15 total the last four games and facing a lot of heat, a lot of pressure. But he's innovating more in the face of that pressure.

He's adapting more to what he's seeing from the opposing defense. He's scrambling more, 25 scrambles in the last four games compared to five total on the season up to that point, finding more ways to create, you know, 7.16 yards per carry over the last four games for 229 rushing yards. That's a huge asset and value for the bear's offense and for fields. Is it a good thing that he has to respond to the pressure that way? No, of course not. It would be ideal if he were not facing that much pressure and getting sacked that often.

But the fact that he is able to acclimate to the pressure that he's seeing and find ways to create in the face of it, I think is really, really encouraging. in those same last few games, his completion percentage has gone up as well. We're not just seeing the uptick and the scrambling and the rushing production, 64.35 completion percentage in those four games. So overall, he's earning more first downs, finding his way to move the sticks,

and just looks more comfortable, pushing the ball downfield, taking off to run when he needs to, and overall just viving in the flow of the offense. I'm encouraged about what we've seen. I am too. I really am too. I think so Fields, this is one of the tricky things. He is to some degree culpable in the number of sacks that he's taken. Yes, of course. If you're sacked 29 times at this point in the season, like there is a blame pie, right? And it's not all going to one one spot. The majority

goes their offensive line is not good. That is no secret. Um, he has only thrown the ball away three times. Trevor Lawrence, by comparison, has thrown it away 15 times. Lawrence is also getting the ball out a little faster. 2.8 three seconds. Fields is time to throw. It's three seconds. Now, that's a little misleading just because the scrambles impact that pretty significantly. And it's good that he's scrambling, right? Like, it's good that he's started doing that more. So you don't want to knock him too severely for the fact that that's making it look like he's taking a little bit longer to throw. But clearly, you know, there are some other guys in this rookie class who have that bell go off in their head that's just like, you know what, live to fight another down.

Like, don't just get rid of it. And he's got to develop that. Like, he really needs to. And it's hard. It's hard for, you know, Ben Zilak loves to say it's just tire doesn't change its stripes. you can still improve a little bit. I think that's one of the areas in which Fields has some room just because the line is not going to get that much better over the course of the season. And he's going to have guys in his face. And they probably could use getting out of those situations in a clean manner happening a little bit more often. I think the thing, so if you wanted to make an argument for Lawrence at two, he has been, he's been slightly more accurate. His adjusted completion percentage is 70.6 versus 65.4 for Fields. He's also not getting a lot of help from his receivers.

So Lawrence's receivers have dropped 19 passes. A full 9% of his on target throws are being dropped. Terrible. Um, Fields has only had receivers drop six passes. That's five percent of his on target throws. Lauren still, uh, he has one more big time throw, um, although Fields has taken fewer snaps. So the rate is actually higher. And again, Lawrence has been a little bit smarter about protecting the ball. I think obviously he's, he's had interceptions, but I think just overall Fields has had a few, two more of the Like, uh-oh, that's not great. Um, in addition to inviting some sacks and not knowing when to throw it away.

The thing that it comes down to for me is, is two things. One, he's, Fields is just making more impact place. You mentioned the big time throw rate and the highest average up the target. Yeah. Right. Lawrence has averaged up the target is 8.5. Again, fields 10.7. So he's pushing the ball down the field.

The other thing is just the way that he. impacts the running game is really, really meaningful. So for the last four games, the Bears as a team have averaged 5.09 yards per carry. Fields's mark is 7.15 yards per carry. When Lamar won MVP in 2019, the Ravens won 14 and 2, as a team they averaged 5.5 yards per carry. And for Lamar, it was 6.9. And he led the league in that.

So obviously, much smaller sample size. But that is the level. on which he's impacting their running game with his mobility, with his athleticism, with his ability to scramble. So I think you put those two things together and it gives fields the edge. I do think, I don't know,

both of these are sort of dysfunctional team environments. There's something about Jacksonville that just feels worse. Yeah, I agree. I mean, we've both said it a lot today. Like you can't separate the player from the team. And that's, I think, a huge part of why the number one picking the draft, someone who we've all been talking about as a generational quarterback prospect for years

is sitting at third in the rookie QB, rookie first round QPB power rankings midway through the season. Like I, you know, I said this earlier. I don't, there seems to be, there's a little more like should we be worried about Trevor Lawrence conversation out in the world, not to go all straw man, but like there's a little bit more of that bubbling up than. I frankly, like, understand or think makes sense just because so much of what has gone, not even wrong, but I mean, not hasn't gone as well as anticipated there, traces back to either like rookie growing pains or the team environment.

I mean, we're not talking about Urban Meyer like every five seconds over the last few weeks. So that's some progress, I guess, over where the team was. at the beginning of the season, you know, baby steps moving forward. That's good. With Lawrence, like, you could just, you can find so many, you know, thinking face emoji, like, hmm, why is it going this way, things to cite? And also so many positives to cite. You know, I'm glad that you mentioned the drops because that that is really indicative,

I think, of how the team factors are impacting his play overall. You know, only four quarterbacks in the league have. suffered either as many or more dropped passes on on-target throws than Trevor Lawrence. Stafford Herbert, Donald Mahomes. That's the list. That's it. Those are the only players. He's made the second most big-time throws of the rookies after Mack with the 15.

You know, he is generating highlight plays. He has those moments, of course, where you're like, this is the guy. Like, this is the guy that everybody was waiting to see and expected to see. and expected to see. I do think the turnovers are actually one of the things that you would point to, though, as concerning to this point in like a real area of needing to improve. You know, he has the most turnover-worthy plays of the rookie quarterbacks at 15. Now, Wilson and if we're broadening beyond just the first round picks, Mills,

they have worse turnover-worthy play rates, but at a 5.0 and 4.3, respectively compared to Lawrence's 3.9. Nine picks, the fumbles. You know, you look at something like the most recent game, the Colts game, and the fumble that kind of sealed that. Again, I think you can make the argument either way. Like, is it that one play and that one moment from Trevor Lawrence? Is that the reason that the Jaguars lost that game?

No, of course not. Of course not. Like, that's not how football games work. Does he need to avoid an outcome like that in that moment? Also, yes, of course. One of the things that I have been impressed by with Lawrence is that it doesn't seem at least, both from just the way he's playing, his demeanor inside of the games, the way he's speaking to the press and talking about his play.

It doesn't seem like he's pressing or, like, losing his confidence, which isn't always the case. You know, I think often it wouldn't be a pod here with you, Nora, if I didn't mention baseball. And I think often of, even though of course baseball is a, it's in football or different sports, I think often of how a mistake teams can make is when you have like a truly, truly truly elite pitching prospect. And you put them out there before everything is right, before it's the exact right moment. And they experienced something that they have never experienced to that point in their lives or careers before, which is playing poorly, right, and losing. And the impact that that can have, not only in the moment, but like potentially on the rest of their playing

careers. And I think it bears mentioning that Trevor Lawrence was not accustomed to losing football games before his rookie year in the NFL, like whether it was as a prospect in high school, whether it was at Clemson. Losing football games was an extraordinarily, extraordinarily rare thing in his life. And so this is different. And this might seem like a very obvious, kind of silly thing to say, but I actually think it's important

that when he is going through a season like this and playing in a football environment that he has in many respects, never experienced before, he can still go out and try to play aggressive football. Like, that's notable and I think encouraging.

And even just the way that he's talking about his play. Like he's correctly identifying. You know, there are some quotes on a jaguars.com blog post this week that features a lot of, a lot of quotes from Lawrence about coming off that cult game, where they are in the season, what they need to improve now, like, as is always the case. Of course, there's a lot of like football speak in there, right? But I also thought it was like pretty self-aware and insightful.

And, you know, he talked about like the bad turnovers earlier in the season and how he needs to focus on improving in that area. I think he has a good read on how he has played to this point and on what he needs to improve. Unfortunately, Urban Meyer is still his head coach. And, you know, unfortunately, just in the more we're talking about the drops and what the receiving core and everything looks like, like, he doesn't have DJ Chark. You know, he's, he lost him in October to injury for the year.

Like, the, the situation is what it is for the rest of the season. And so, like, I think it's kind of a matter of, like, treading water and then looking for ways to incrementally improve so that every week there's, like, one more thing to feel good about and hopefully one fewer thing to feel concerned about. And you leave the season positioned not to celebrate every moment as a resounding success, but to build for next year. Like, that's what they have to be thinking about at this point. Yeah. I think you're right that the demeanor stuff is important just because, right, like we've seen guys get crushed and demoralized by those types of environments before. And some of just the ability to make wow throws obviously tells you like there is something to build off of there.

Nothing. That's something. Nothing has changed about Trevor Lawrence's ability to be an exceptional quarterback. Nothing. And so how do you fix the things that have changed? I think that's true. I do. I do think that there is this ongoing conversation in football right now about about elite what qualifies as elite where the sort of pivot point of a guy you win with versus win because of where that is. But do you not think that Lawrence is a guy you win because of or has the potential to be? I think he absolutely, no, I think he absolutely has the potential to be.

I think when you're talking about, you know, generational talent, clear cut number one overall pick, no one you would rather, you know, on the order of Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck. I do think that you expect that player to elevate even a terrible team a little bit more than Lawrence has so far. Now, that is, what we could end up learning by asking that question could be that we're overstating a little bit what an even generational talent can do when the rot is so significant. I will say I've been, I think Trevor Lawrence's rookie season can be a disappointment and he can still be Trevor Lawrence and nobody, nobody regrets for a second to pick. everyone still has high hopes for the future. I will say I felt that he was going to be a player who had a greater immediate impact than he has been so far. That's why he's third. That's why he's third.

All right. Fourth. So you said that there's kind of three tiers here. I would actually kind of argue that there are four because Tray Lance is who we have at fourth. And this is a tier of just like, we haven't. really seen it. Right. Right. But that's, I think, the question. Like, let's talk about this for 30 seconds before we get into Lance and Wilson specifically. You noted Lance's fourth. So it's not, it's not hard for our listeners to deduce who's fifth. It's to figure out who's said.

I will, I will ask you this. And this is a philosophical quandary as much as anything. is it fair to put Lance ahead of Wilson when he has barely played? We are ultimately, of course, putting Wilson below Lance fifth because we have seen a more bad plays, right? Seen more to be concerned about. But he's been out there. Granted, he's missed time too, of course, with the, with me and with the PCL. but he's played six games. You know, Tray Lance has been healthy as far as we all know for the last three weeks

and has not seen a single snap since recovering from his knee injury. He's not playing. It's not totally clear why. I would love to hear what you think about why, but more generally, why. And ultimately we agreed on the list, so I don't want to imply otherwise. We're putting Lance above Wilson because we haven't seen as much that's concerning and we're ultimately then kind of allowing ourselves to elevate the promise and the potential that is still there at the forefront over the turnover concerns, etc. that we've seen from Wilson.

But Tray Lance has barely played. And his coach doesn't seem interested in playing him. That's the other thing. He's so weird. Dude, explain yourself. Like, brilliant guy. I really, like, I may not. less so when it comes to personnel, right?

But like brilliant schematic mind. Weird guy sometimes. Okay? Maybe we should just acknowledge this. This is what he said about Lance not playing for three weeks. Trey's got the whole playbook in his head and he was able to do that in training camp. If you work at it, you're going to learn it all, but it's about going through at full speed. It's about going through it at game tempo and going against the blitzes and all that stuff that can surprise you and knowing when.

a play is a good play and when it's a bad play. When you've got to get out of something, when you've got to get the number four choice in the progression as opposed to the one you practiced in the week. So that just comes with experience and he's getting more and more of it and you can never get too much. Is he, Kyle? So I'm not so sure, Kyle. I love saying Kyle, by the way.

Kyle is like one of the best names to be confounded by. Like, what do you mean? Kyle, like, that's just fun. That's just fun stuff. That rolls off the tongue. I mean, look, also, I'm sorry, I'm, like, banging on my table for our listeners. The reason this is happening, the reason we are confounded by Kyle, is that Jimmy Garoppolo is playing better than he has all season. Right?

Like, the last two weeks, Jimmy Garabolo has played his two best football games that we have seen in quite some time. He's playing very well. The Niners are coming off a easy win over the would-be Super Bowl winning Rams. The Niners are playing well. Jimmy's playing well, that's fine. But the logic of that quote is, I would argue almost entirely absent. If you're rookie quarterback who you invested in with the draft capital tied up in their trade and then the draft capital of the number three overall slot is not playing. And the explanation for what you need to see is in essence, you can only see it in the game, then get him some snaps.

Right. Just get him some snaps, right? Because even though he was not, like Lance was never playing a lot. But when he was getting in there, some red zone packages, some situational stuff, he had three touchdowns. He only had one pick. He was doing more good than bad. You know, it was not like, here's your high completion percentage, stable. Oh, maybe we should think about actually starting him the whole game because this is looking not only good, but just like sort of solid and steady. That's not what they were doing with him and he wasn't playing that much. But it wasn't like he was, he was taken plays, right? Like, they had clever ways to get him in the game. Now, now I don't know what's happening. Other than, I mean, look, I think the answer is just Jimmy's playing really well. And Shanahan,

for all of his, his confounding choices, has made one thing pretty clear since training camp, or since the start of the season at least, which is just the like, if Jimmy's healthy and playing well, they kind of want to play Jimmy. Even if it doesn't make a ton of sense in, okay, you spend that much to go up and get a rookie, and then you're just not going to develop him when you say that he needs all that time against the blitzes? Devil's advocate. He's made that clear sure.

This is also the guy who's like, I don't know if I'll be alive on Sunday. Like nothing is ever guaranteed in this life. Weird guy. To paraphrase our great football profit of 2021. Like, I get it. You know, they're four and five right now after that Rams win. They're firmly in the NFC wildcard race.

So they're a play. of hopeful at this point. I mean, who isn't? But yeah, who isn't? Sure, of course. But that's also, that's part of the reality of the current season with the wide and playoff field in the longer season. Like more teams are still in the mix for longer than they have been before. And not wanting to disrupt the flow or constantly field questions if Lance comes in for a series and plays well. And everyone's like, are we going to see more of Lance? But the thing is, that's going to happen no matter what. That is just

the reality in which the, that's the reality that the Niners inhabit. right now. Like, that is their timeline in the multiverse. This is what people are going to be talking about all season long. And I think what seems, what seems strange to me is that whether this is fair or not, or true or not, the kind of collective takeaway, maybe I'm overstating this. Maybe this is wrong. I'd love to know what you think. Is that like Shanahan seems to not feel confident in playing Tray Lance. I don't know why that would be based on what we've seen so far. And that, again, we have him at four and I'm with it. But that would be to me, one of the arguments for flipping this potentially is that like, not only have we not seen much,

but if his own coach doesn't have confidence to play him, what should we be taking away from that? Now, I think Trailance is like an incredibly talented player and a really exciting quarterback prospect. I look forward to watching him play football for years and years and years to come. Like, I would love to see him out there. I would love to see him in the mix. I think he's awesome. So I think I'm mostly just impatient to see him more, feeling a little salty about it. Let me also note that I am not a head football coach. So there's this whole debate over, like, has Shanahan as sort of genius guru scheme lord been overrated because their record hasn't always been good and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. I think something that we underrate is like,

I think he's pretty smart. I think he makes some personnel screw ups, but I think he's really, really smart. I think he's good at his job. I just think we underate that he's a little bit of an odd bird. And on that note, you know what else is in the air with birds? Planes.

Jets. What are your thoughts on Zach Wilson interceptions? It's a bird. It's a plane. It's an arm punt thrown by the second overall pitch. This is a, this is a grim moment here for Zach Wilson. Here's the New York Jets for you. Here's the New York football Jets.

Zach Wilson has the second worst turnover worthy play percentage in the NFL. Second to Mike White. Mike White. Joe Flacco starting on Sunday. He is. He is. Yeah. It's Flacco time.

Yeah. As you know, I track Joe Flacco with interest. sort of all you need to say about, about Sack Wilson is well, so we're starting on Sunday. We should say in the interest of fairness, he's still not fully healthy, right?

He's saying he's day to day that he's not 100% with a knee. Presumably if he were 100% he would be playing this week, that seems like a reasonable assumption. One hopes. One would hope. He's three weeks out. And yes, to be fair,

he's three weeks out from a second degree PCL sprain, which is typically a two to four week injury. So. So very reasonable that that Zach Wilson would not be healthy yet. I'm just being mean because I'm a cruel, cruel person. Well, channel that cruelty for a second. Why do you have Wilson last? Why do you have him at fifth among the first round rookies based on what we've seen so far?

He's done a lot more bad than good. That is the central reason, right? Like four touchdowns, nine interceptions, four picks, against the Patriots. That's just like, yes. Look, that is some soul-snatching stuff. The 19 sacks, the nine interceptions, remember these like totals.

That's through six games. Yeah. So you compare that interception total to the other passers. It's for Wilson, it's fewer total games, just six. Overall, though, look, we're hoping this would be an accurate player, 57.5% completion rate. They've had big issues with drops.

Obviously, the context of the team is not good. But there have been a few sort of wow throws, well moments, but they are fewer and further between than, say, Fields or Lawrence, certainly. And they've really, I mean, they've struggled to just move the ball. It's not a well-functioning offense, and it hasn't been a well-functioning offense when Wilson's been playing. So, you know, you just hope that there's a way to solidify the situation around him and hope that things stabilize. But there's not a whole lot that you can point to and go, okay, well, you can build off of this.

It's just, it's been a troubling situation. And then he got hurt. So that was my question for you on that last point. Like you're saying there's not a lot you can point to. You know, I think it's easy to kind of poke fun at the Jets and say like, okay, I agree. And this is it's, it's never a good, a good sign. Injury or not if Joe Flacco was starting a football game for you in 2021. Never a good sign.

And the Mike White experience. which, you know, we enjoyed discussing as recently as last week. And I think it was a lot of fun. It was delightful to watch Jet fans celebrate like this little pop-up of QB euphoria. That was really fun. I think if you want to be like less charitable about it, it's also telling that Jets fans on the heels of drafting, you know, I mean, go back to Darnold and, you know, really.

litigate years and years before that, but just to stick with Wilson, drafting Wilson second overall in this draft that they were on the heels of that draft mere weeks into the season, that hungry for a injection of something that felt fresh and new at QB. Like, again, that may not be fair, but it is, it is a thing that happened and that bears mentioning at least. I look at those, like, few, you know, those holy shit throws that he has made this season, Wilson. And I guess that's what I would ask you. Like, have you seen enough, even though the volume of those plays is slight, have you

seen enough in those moments to say, okay, well, this is all the promise, this is all the potential, this is what they can nurture and hone and look to build around for the future. It sounds like you're troubled enough by what has gone. wrong to really doubt the ability to redirect the course here. Is that the case? Kind of. I think if you want to, I think the optimistic look at it is to say maybe none of this matters, right? Like maybe the situation is so bad that Zach Wilson is just whatever you thought of

Zach Wilson going into the draft. Like that is who this is. Obviously someone who needs a lot of development, but has potentially very high ceiling. raw ability really, really significant. And you can just say like, okay, we not, we haven't necessarily gotten sort of positive confirmation on that. But you just kind of like erase everything on the whiteboard and start with a cleaner slate and hopefully better support around him.

I do think part of that is just because. it feels like the coaching staff has at times been a little bit like yikes. We talked about that it's okay to be boring. Quote, I don't think that this is going according to plan. I wish I had nicer things to say about my fellow New Yorker. I'll attempt to channel some positivity for a second and just say that the boring football, it's okay to be boring.

quote, I point to that still as something that actually gives me confidence because I think I think it is astute and really sound not only as an actual observation, but as a thing to be able to say, to be able to say out loud to the media, to the public, to the fan base, and to crucially be able to say to Zach Wilson. Like that's the kind of guidance that a young player who is forcing throws and making bad decisions needs to be able to ultimately embrace. And so if that kind of guidance and tutelage remains, I think, focused and constructive, but also encouraging and clear, then it's still too early for me, at least, to doubt it. But I'll be frank, as we always are here together.

Zach Wilson's not who I would have taken second overall in the draft in the first place. So there's that. Yeah. Well, so I should say part of the reason I think maybe this is counterintuitive, but part of the reason why I'm so down is because I thought he had a, I thought he had not necessarily was the safest pick, but I thought he had a chance to be really, really good. I'm not saying that's totally gone, but I thought there was a chance where he had, you know, one of the highest ceilings of all of those guys. So this is telling you, he's, he's, he's fallen short of your expectations. I think for me, mine were pretty low.

low. And so I'm feeling less. So maybe you're a little bit. Yeah. That makes sense. That makes sense. That makes sense. But Nora, I'm never let down by you, you know? Never. No. That's so kind. You are my number one overall pick. Can I come on the next Dune pod? Come talk about Dune whenever you want. Standing invite. Sick. Love it. Love it. This has been the Ringer NFL show. I'm Nora Princiotti. She's Mallory Rubin. Ben Solac, Stephen Ruiz, and Kaelin Jones will be coming up next on this feed previewing the week 11 games this Friday. I will be back Sunday night with Kevin Clark, Solek, and Ruiz to break down all of the

week 11 action. Mal will be back on the ringerverse feed with Joanna Robinson this Friday. The show will be back in two weeks. We're off next week due to the Thanksgiving holiday. I will be joining our Friday preview crew on Wednesday to preview the Thanksgiving games. That's going to be fun. Our thanks as always go to production assistant Isaiah Blakely for production on this episode and to Arjuna Ramgapal for additional production supervision.