The Ringer NFL Show - Ranking the Most Likely Scenarios for the Top Five Picks | Big Board

Episode Date: April 2, 2021

'The Ringer Fantasy Football Show' hosts Danny Heifetz and Danny Kelly project who they think the top five picks will be (3:05). Then they rank the likelihood of each of those scenarios happening (43:21). Follow ‘The Ringer Fantasy Football Show’ for full episodes. Hosts: Danny Heifetz and Danny Kelly Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Ringer FC is your podcast home for all things soccer on the Ringer. Join us on Monday and Thursday for Stadio hosted by Ryan Hunt and Musa Akwanga, as they cover the major European football leagues and a lot more. On Wednesday, Arsenal Legend and former England international Ian Wright hosts Rite's House discussing the latest in European football with a rotation of special guests. Check out Ringer FC on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Dude, Schaefter just tweeted, oh boy, Mina Kimes is not going to be happy. today. Does that mean Russell Wilson is getting fucking traded or what?

Wait, Shafter. Oh, boy. What does that mean? What would be happy to? Oh, it's April fools. Yeah, it's definitely April fools. Fuck it. Hey, Adam. Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. My name is Danny Hyfitz and I am joined by my co-host, Danny Kelly. You may know us from the Ringer Fantasy Football Show, which we publish every Wednesday on that feed. But now we're also coming to you every Friday until the draft is here on the ringer NFL show. That's going to be every Friday and Monday now until the draft. Yeah. Here on Fridays, we will be ranking something related to the draft each week.

And this week, we're just going to, what the hell is happening in the top five? I think we're going to rank like scenarios that are going to maybe happen. Yeah. Yeah. Scenarios. So we're just going to go through because obviously the Niners traded last week, a series of deals. Basically, Niners moved up to three.

dolphins go down to six, eagles go down to 12, a bunch of picks changed hands. The new top five is Jaguars, Jets, 49ers, Falcons, Bengals. We're going to go through the top five and figure out what the hell is going to go on because three quarterbacks have gone one, two, three off the board twice, I think, in NFL history. Yeah, I believe that's correct. There's just never been four quarterbacks taking one, two, three, four. Could happen.

It's in the realm of possibility that one, two, three, four, five are all quarterbacks. So this is all insane. It also could be one through three. We don't know what's going to go down. So we're just going to go through and just go pick by pick here and just figure out what the, what is happening. Yeah. You ready, D.K.? Yeah, let's do this.

Number one, Jaguars up on the clock, Trevor Lawrence. And anything with your bullshit detector go off here? Yeah, not really. I feel like it's pretty locked in. There has not been any sort of official report. Maybe the NFL is told the Jags just to not like actually say anything because they want to keep suspense and make it interesting. But I haven't seen anything that would indicate it's not going to be Trevor Lawrence.

Have you seen any report that is even sort of like, you know, drawing into question or calling into question the fact that this could not be Lawrence? Not a single thing. I don't think the NFL would tell a team what to do. But I mean, Urban Meyer literally told Peter King at NBC this week, quote, like Peter King asked them, are you taking Trevor Lawrence? Why are we pretending? And Urban Meyer said, I'd have to say that's the direction we're going.

I'll leave that up to the owner when we make the decision official, but I'm certainly not stepping out of line. That's certainly the direction we're headed. End quote. So that's about as direct as you're going to get a coach pre-draft. Yeah, this is a lock. We can move on. And then when we get on, when the draft starts,

they're going to sit on the clock for 15 minutes and make us all wait. People always complain about that. You've waited four months. Pisses me up. Oh, my God. We have to wait 10 minutes for that. Wait for the phone calls. Like, you've waited four months to make the pick.

wait 10 minutes to see if someone calls you and it's like we'll give you every pick we have till 2047 or something. No, they're not allowed to do that. Still, it's, I hate, everyone's like, oh, just do it. Oh, man. Your time isn't that valuable. Okay.

Just being honest. All right. Number two, the New York Jets. The conventional wisdom is they're taking Zach Wilson. Right. Does your bullshit detector kind of go off here at all in any way? No, not really. Very, very lightly.

Maybe like, you know, just sort of in the back of my head I'm curious. Can we get like a bullshit detector? Beep, beep, beep, beep. Like a little light one. Like when you're looking for the sand and like you're kind of looking for gold or something. Yeah, yeah.

Like very slow beeps. Beep. I think everything is no country for old men with the beep. Oh my gosh. That's what we're doing here. I don't know. Honestly, everything sort of points to this being the case. It's going to be Zach Wilson.

It's going to be Zach Wilson. It's going to be Zach Wilson. It has been. for a couple weeks now. But at the same time, there has not been, like the Lawrence thing, there has not been any definitive report

from any one that I've seen that's saying, this is going to be Wilson. I think there has been, so for instance, like Dane Brugel texted out the other day that a scout texted him,

draft starts at three, Wilson going two. But that's just, and Dane even said this on his podcast, that's just one scout's opinion. That's not like the NFL officially deciding.

And I saw this. It's not like a Jet Scout said that about. the Jets. A different scout gave his opinion on what the Jouts Jets would do. So Peter King in his in his column this week, Peter's obviously very connected to, you know, NFL front offices. He said, so he said basically, first of all, he thinks it's going to be, he thinks it's going to be Zach Wilson.

However, he said, end quote, I believe there could be one team left that is interested moving up even at a ridiculous cost. That's Carolina picking eighth in the first round. And this is end quote. And this is also something that we've heard. they've been very aggressive. They were in the Matt Stafford sweepstakes. For a while there, they were interested in Deshawn Watson.

And they have all reports have said they were going to be very, very aggressive. They've got this hedge fund guy, David Tepper, is their owner now. Like, he's, I think, willing to, like, sell out and go all in to get a quarterback. So I'm not 100% dismissing the idea that the Jets could stick with Sam Darnold. I don't think it's in their best interest necessarily to do this. but I think there's a small chance, maybe like 2% chance that they'll trade out. And King said,

disregard what you hear about other staffs or people around the league, knowing what the Jets are going to do. The decision maker on the Jets is GM Joe Douglas, and I hear he's not parceling out any clues about his preference for the second pick to coaches on his staff or others. Someone close to Douglas over the weekend

said that Douglas has learned to keep his draft preferences to himself. So I think he's like, so this very reminiscent, of sort of like the Mayfield situation a couple years ago. Oh, yeah. Where everyone up until, I think it was literally like two days or a day before the draft. Literally it was the week of, yeah.

Yeah, thought that, oh, yeah, lock it in. It's Sam Darnold, lock it in. We spent like a month talking about Sam Darnold or Josh Allen. Yeah, like a week before Josh Allen came out that Josh Allen might be the pick. No one was really talking about Mayfield. I feel like, based on my memory, obviously it's a little foggy, but it felt like till like two days before the draft. it was like, oh, it might be Mayfield. No.

Even a week before the, I'm so glad you brought this up. Even a week before the draft, Peter King wrote, quoting Peter King from three years ago, half the free world has Josh Allen to the Browns. And then everyone else had Sam Donald to the Browns. So here's the thing to remember. Everyone was in on Donald to Allen, Darnold or Allen to the Browns in 2018.

The person making that pick was the Browns GM John Dorsey. And famously, he was like not telling anyone. He didn't even tell anyone in his own. organization who he's going to pick the people he worked for. I don't even know if he told his wife until like a couple days before and then it leaked. Like do you remember that episode of Game of Thrones where Tyrion Lannister knows that someone working from as a mole to Searcy? He doesn't know who.

So he tells he tells three people three different things. And then whoever like gets the info to Searcy, he knows is the mole and he sends that dude to the wall or whatever as exile. Like like you don't know who they're doing because the person who like the people who work for the Jets. GM making the pick may not know. So the idea that we've all just accepted that Zach Wilson's going to be the pick is, I don't want to say ridiculous. It's just, it's the prevailing wisdom that has become like a certainty.

It's ridiculous. It's kind of like everyone's saying the same idea to each other, but no one's reporting it. It's like it's just the same ideas are going around on Twitter. Everyone's seeing it, but there's no actual source. This is, so this reminds me of like, so for instance, when you're a detective working on a case, if you start to work off an assumption and then build your case. case off of an assumption, it can completely derail the entire case. And so we're working under the assumption that Zach Wilson is number two. I mean, I think he's number two.

I'm pretty sure. Like I would say 95% sure that it's Zach Wilson. That's what everything is pointing to, haven't seen anything indicating it's not going to be. And it makes a lot of sense. Obviously, he looked awesome at his pro day. You know what I mean? So there's not a lot pointing to the idea that he's not going to be the number two. pick. However, we've done this before. We've gone down this road before.

That's the weird stuff happens. And I think what we're doing is we're, everybody's saying the draft starts at number three, well, I think what we're doing is in our investigation, we're basing everything on an assumption. So that's why we're talking, that's why we're talking about this right now is because maybe, you know, maybe there's a small chance that the Jets trade out. I mean, Peter King wrote about this week. Maybe they'll trade out if they get like this amazing offer from the, from the Panthers, you know, because they could still trade back to eight and maybe even get a quarterback too. So, you know what I mean? I think that maybe we're just a little too quick to accept that this is, this is already

like in the works. It's going to happen. One of the things in favor of the Jets taking Zach Wilson that's like actual reporting is Ian Rappaport for Anfield Network tweeted that the Eagles were looking into moving up to number three, but only for Zach Wilson. And then they kind of read the T leaves that the Jets would take him. And then the Ian Rappapaport immediately clarified that tweet. I don't know if he deleted it or not, but he immediately clarified it was like, that wasn't totally. correct. That's what we're going off of a tweet that was clarified. People think maybe he was like he got an earful from whoever was feeding him that info.

Yeah. Buddy, buddy, you misrepresented what I was saying. Now you're like making it look like the jets are for sure picking Wilson or whatever. So I don't know. To be fair. You ever see letter kidding? To be fair. But like sometimes the narrative is correct the entire time. Like the next year in 2019 when the Cardinals, everyone thought they were going to take Kyler Murray, because Cliff Kingsbury said like Josh Rosen is a quarterback for now. They did take Tyler Murray and that was just the right correct assumption for like three full

months. Sometimes it happens and it totally could be Zach Wilson. But like, I don't know. As you said, it's weird that we're just all assuming it's correct. Okay. However, at the end of the day, we're going to all we're all going to assume that this is correct. I think at the end of the day we all agree that it's going to be Zach Wilson. So really it starts at 49ers.

All right. Let's go to number three. I'm glad that we just did the same thing that we were making fun. Okay. Yeah. So number three, 49ers, the actual trade, what they did was they traded two future firsts,

and a third, to swap the 12th and third picks. That's basically what they did. Yeah. I guess we had someone to actually ask about this on Twitter the other day, like the semantics of it. Technically, they traded three first,

but he's correct in saying, it's really you trade two firsts to move up in swap picks. Exactly. You know what I mean? Like you keep hearing, and we actually, I think, said it a couple times.

Like you hear that the 49ers traded three first, but in reality, it's more like two futures and a third. So just to get into the semantics of it, yeah. It's two future picks and a third to take Mac Jones this year. So anyway, the betting favored for this pick is Alabama's Mac Jones.

Does your bullshit detector go off here? Yeah, this is where I start to really question things. It's like, you know, you're getting close. What kind of beep? Is it like you found the Titanic on your beach? Like, what kind of beep is this? Yeah. Shit starts going. There's been Pacific Rim.

There's Pacific Rim 2 or whatever starts with like his granddad on a beach and he's like has the metal detector and they find like one of those Jagers or whatever that's called the giant fighting robots. That's like the beep I have with Mac Jones going third. I'm picturing Chernobyl, the Geiger counter when they go out on the roof. You know what I'm talking about? Just like, just like it's crazy. I don't know. This is such a difficult one for me because on one hand, I feel like everything is pointing to Mac Jones.

And it almost makes it like obvious. Like, yeah, they weren't Mac Jones. This is obvious. You know, there's reasons that you can talk yourself into it. It makes a lot of sense. Like the Shanahan connection with Kirk Cousins, Shob, Matt Ryan. You can make those connections. You can connect those dots.

So on one hand, I'm like, yeah, this makes perfect sense. But on the other hand, I'm like, this is way too obvious. Like, they're making this way too obvious. They are, it's like, why would they be going around, telling everybody who they're going to pick. You know what I mean? Especially, by the way, since we just talked about this, there's no real official report that the Jets are taking.

It's all dot connecting on Twitter that people seem to read each other and then people tweet things. And it's like, is there actual information here or are people just all following the same people on Twitter? Yeah, that's my question. So I'm going to break down a few of these reports. And these are the big, I think, like very official, from very well plugged in reporters and analysts.

I'll just go through a few of them. First of all, Chris Sims, who, like we mentioned before on the fantasy show, has a tattoo. Him and Kyle Shanahan have tattoos of each other's initials. So they were like teammates at Texas. You can't dwell over that. We have to linger here for a second. They go way back. They go way back.

Because we went to school together in Texas and at 02. I mean, I respect it. Friendship is valuable and beautiful. But so. Yeah. So Chris Sims is like this trade is for Mack Jones. He tweets that. and then people are like,

yeah, then some people are like, well, he has a tattoo of Kyle Shannon's initials on him, so he probably knows what's up. And the Kyle Shannon says in his press conference, Chris Sims doesn't know, I haven't spoke to Chris Sims in two years.

And then apparently that he went on his podcast like months ago. Like a few months ago. Here's the point. Everyone can be telling the truth in this scenario. Kyle Shannon is not, in my opinion, probably not lying that he did not tell Chris Sims. But when you're close enough with a friend,

you don't need them to tell you what they're going to do to, to like know what they're going to do. Like when you're at a restaurant with a friend back when restaurants were a thing, you know what your friends are going to order. Like they're predictable. You know what they're going to do. Like if you have a, if you're friends with someone enough to have a tattoo of them,

Chris Sims probably knows what Kyle Shanhan wants in a quarterback. I guess. Yeah. I don't know. So that was the first one. Chris Sims obviously was like he started an avalanche of reports connecting the 49ers to this pick being Mac Jones. Adam Schaefter on his podcast recently.

He said, if the pick were made today, I wouldn't be shocked if it were Mac Jones. So first of all, he's hedging very hard there. You know what I mean? And like in that language, if the pick were made today, I wouldn't be shocked if it was, if it were Mac Jones. He goes in talking to another GM this week, NFC GM this week, the media does not have a high grade on Mac Joe does not have as high of a grade on Mac Jones as teams do. So in other words, we're all making fun of Mac Jones. But NFL teams love this guy.

And for the record, I like Mac Jones. I think he has a lot of interesting tools, accuracy, decision making, processing among the most like important things a quarterback can have and he has all those things. So the idea that he's this like terrible like joke of a quarterback is not true in my mind. However, you know, I love Beck. I love Justin Fields and I think Justin Fields is a far better prospect. So regardless, what and Schaefter goes on, he says, Mac Jones has elite arm accuracy. He's an elite processor. He's an elite leader. Daniel Jeremiah on the Athletics NFL show said, of the people you want to believe and put your faith in,

the overwhelming majority of them believe that this is going to be Mac Jones with that pick. Peter King on May 29th. It seems stunning to think Alabama's Mac Jones could be the Niners choice and could be his operative phase phrase because the Niners have not decided who to choose at three. So I don't know what that means. They haven't decided who they're going to pick. Maybe that's why there's just so many reports that it's Mac Jones is because he's still in the running. And obviously, people made a big deal about the fact that Kyle Shanahan went to Mac Jones's pro day on the same day that Justin Fields is having his pro day. So he essentially chose Mac Jones pro day over Justin Fields' pro day. However, that's like people are pointing to that. But there was also a report that came out that Shannon talked to Justin Fields' agent and said that they'll set up like a separate day to throw, like a separate pro day. So it's pretty much moot. That, I mean, they're both going to get pro days.

So I think you said Matt Jones seems to be Occam's Razor here, right? Yeah. You know what I actually think is Occam's Razor? What you just said, that they don't know. They're like, we like a quarterback. We want a quarterback. We'll figure it out when we get there. I actually think that's totally possible that they are 100% sure.

I guess that's, I mean, I suppose it's, I don't think it's the most likely situation, honestly. I disagree on that because I think you don't trade that much capital. like basically they're mortgaging the future on this pick. Unless you. What if they like, what if they're like, we like both guys enough that we want the pick? And there's two guys that are so good that we need one of them.

And so they go up and they're like, yeah, sure. We don't know. I don't know. I guess that. Maybe they maybe. Does that happen? Like,

you're an opinionated guy. Are you ever just like, yeah. I'm an opinionated guy. I'll take either. We'll mortgage our future on, eh, either.

No, it's not either. It's just like, Oh, I like both. I want one of the... Well, because... I think it's... It's kind of like fantasy, right?

There's tiers, and you have the top tier. Maybe there's four guys in this tier. It's like Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Mack Jones and Person X Fields or Trey Lance or someone. And they don't know.

Don't you always talk yourself out of big decisions once it seems obvious? Or little decisions. I don't know. Just human nature. You know, you waffle. This is... I think so, like, the bottom line

and the crux of this whole conversation is there's so many variables and there's so many plausible I guess scenarios going on right now that it's a either it's really obviously Mac Jones duh or B this is obviously a smokescreen I think it just depends on what you're like how how much you like Mac Jones and how much you

how big of a difference you see between the two quarterbacks but here's the thing you're the you're the prospect expert you're the person evaluating hundreds of prospects here for us at the ranger how has Mac Jones leapt over Justin Fields I think it's well I think there's this perception And I don't necessarily buy into this, but I think there's a perception that he's not as quick of a processor in the pocket. And so basically what I've heard, you know,

from people talking on Twitter and I guess like sharing the concerns of some NFL teams is that he does sit back there and wait in the pocket for his receivers come over, come open. However, and Nate Tice pointed this out, the first guys, I'll point this out with that. I think it's a very important point is in that offense, in the Ohio State offense, they'd run a lot of these vertical option routes where you're,

waiting for your guy to basically go downfield. He has to get to his landmark and then make an option and either go left or right or whatever. This is just a hypothetical. So he's sitting back there patiently waiting for what he's told to do, what he's coached to do, is wait for these options to develop. Now, this is not always. This is not like happening on every snap. So maybe there is some validity to the idea that he like locks on to a target here and there.

And maybe he has to like clean that up and speed that up a little bit. but I think overall this narrative that he's a slow processor is incorrect. I don't think that's the case. But maybe that's what teams are afraid of. Whereas with Mack Jones, and the other thing that's so interesting is Mac Jones and fields are like polar opposites when it comes to quarterbacking in terms of like their skill sets.

Mac Jones is a pocket quarterback. You know, he's not, he's not super athletic. What he does well is move well in the pocket, strafing, sliding to avoid pressure, still getting to throw off. He's like very decisive, very good accuracy. I think Justin Fields does all that stuff too, but he also has 4-4 speed or 4-5 speed or whatever at 240 pounds.

So, like, he can do all this stuff in the run game that a lot of, you know, more, I guess, like you want to quote, like, more modern NFL teams are doing. Like, what they're adopting these days is incorporating the quarterback into the run game, and it's, like, so hard to stop from the defensive point of view. So I think it just depends on what you want. I don't know, like what the 49ers want. Maybe they just want a guy like Mac Jones, who's just going to pull the trigger, get the ball out, you know, distribute to the playmakers.

And I wouldn't really blame him for that. But I think when you talk about what Justin Fields could do in that offense, it's like scintillating. It's like, man, he could do like take a bootleg and go 80 yards. It's like, I don't know. So it's like the RG3 days. So, yeah, I think it just kind of depends on what you think the 49ers want, what you think Shanahan wants, or maybe like project what you think they should do.

It's just a very difficult situation to, to part. The part of this that confuses me is twofold. One, it's that Justin Fields, I believe it's number one in yards before, uh, sorry, yards before the catch as in he's throwing deeper downfield for his completions, which could be spun as slow processing or being aggressive, which is what teams want. It's easier to take an aggressive passer and make them less aggressive than to take a guy who isn't aggressive and make him aggressive. Well, it's like, it's similar to the question of like,

time to throw is a stat that a lot of people throw out. Like, oh, his time to throw was really quick. He was getting the ball out, snapping the ball out. Like Russell Wilson, for instance, has terrible time to throw throughout his whole career because he's willing to sit back there and improvise. But also because he runs a lot of these really deep drop play action bootlegs where he's like, you know, pretending to hand off, like taking this big looping, you know, play action bootleg fake.

And so that time to throw is obviously a lot different than a guy who just gets in a shotgun kind of hits an RPO and it's like the play is over kind of deal. So it's stylistic. There's stylistic differences for sure. Well, here's the thing. I think that the challenge of this evaluation is that it seems that the reasons that Justin Fields is falling, which seems to be about processing. And now there's also, you know, I don't even know if I want to call them reports,

but there was things circulating that Justin Fields is like last guy in the room, first guy out, which is, you know, not what you want your quarterback. to do. Now, we can't prove those things wrong. Like, we can't, we don't get Justin Fields doing stuff for us on a whiteboard. But the problem is that those criticisms perfectly overlap with the criticism or the prejudices against black quarterbacks in the history of the sport. And it's hard when the history of black quarterbacks at the sport is now overlapping with a black quarterback who is falling from a perspective where outsiders assumed he was the second guy to Lawrence. And really he's been, him and Trevor Lawrence have been like this one, too, since they

Like a top tier, like 1A and 1B. Yeah. Trevor Lawrence was like a 0.999 prospect in high school and Justin Fields was like 0.998. They're from like an hour apart in Georgia in the same spot. And for their whole college careers that's been like they're 1-2, 1-2. Now we're a month out from the draft and Fields is plummeting outside the top three, maybe outside the top five.

You know, it's just weird. And race is kind of the thing hanging over this whole thing. But at the same time, the other, the flip side is that we don't know the things that these teams are looking at. You mentioned Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, guys that outside draft observers have missed on. And the flip side of that is the reasons those guys have succeeded seemingly are, well, all the things you don't see. Like Josh Allen's attitude is apparently great or whatever. It's a very hard thing to pinpoint from the outside.

But the fact that he's falling is really complicated, to be honest. Yeah. And I think, you know, with those reports, I think what we do know, and there's like no ambiguity here is like, number one. If we, if you watch the game against Clemson, he, he basically got wrecked, he broke a couple ribs, came back in and still through four touchdowns. Toughness. Yeah. What is that of that grit? Toughness, want to grit, like passion, all that stuff.

I mean, the whole country saw it. I don't get it. That number one. Yeah. Okay. Like the biggest stage. Easily, easily bunk that theory. Number two, he went out on a limb.

And he was the leader for Ohio State and the big, the big ten in general in terms of like trying to get football going. during COVID. He was the face of that whole thing. He was the leader of that whole thing. And all I've heard over the last five or six months is what a great tremendous leader he is. And so this shit coming out now, it honestly pisses me off. And again, like, I don't know. I really don't know. I don't know his coaches. I don't know. I wasn't in there at practices. But it sounds like such bullshit to me. And it like made me mad. So like that's the first we're hearing about it. I don't believe it. I don't think it's true.

I think what it is is probably some coaches putting that out there because they want them to fall. That's really what it is. And so, yeah, to me, that's, I, I'm getting fired up.

I thought that was just so, like, that's just, I don't think that's even should be in the conversation right now. So, like, obviously we just brought up, but I'm just,

I just want to throw that out. I was like, I think it's bullshit. I'm glad. I'm glad we lingered. Yeah. So anyways, what next?

So I think having said that, it still seems Mac Jones is to pick at three despite all of them. Yeah. Yeah. It's what, I mean, again, that's like more all the reports. I have fields ranked higher. I have fields ranked higher. I understand that teams maybe have different priorities, though. And I could see them wanting a very quick processor like Mac Jones.

I'm not going to necessarily, you know, I'm not going to say Mac Jones sucks because I don't think he sucks. I think it is a stylistic and maybe like just different priorities for what an NFL team wants. And honestly, like, we talked about this on the fantasy show. If Mac Jones goes the 49ers, I think he's going to be good. You know what I mean? Like, I think he's going to succeed in that offense. And so I think it's just, this is such a fascinating, like, turning point in the draft right here. Like, what happens here is so massive. And I really have, I don't have a good, like, grip on, like, what's going to happen here. So, yes, let's look at the Falcons. So we've got Trevor Lawrence probably going first. Zach Wilson probably going second. Mac Jones probably

going third of the Niners. The Falcons are the pivot point too, because everyone's excited about the Niners. The Falcons are just as much of a wild card, but no one cares because the Falcons are like the least interesting team in the entire NFL, and no one really cares about them.

But this is sneakily like an interesting spot where they could go quarterback successor to Matt Ryan. They could go position player. What is your bullshit detector on them taking a quarterback at the spot to sit behind Matt Ryan for a year or two? I don't know.

It's so tough because obviously they just restructured Matt Ryan's contract. to basically that, I think the purpose was to lower his cap hit in 2021. That was the main purpose. But it also ties him to the team for two years, maybe three. And it's not like they couldn't get rid of his contract. They would have to eat a big cap hit to do it. So this doesn't necessarily eliminate them from a quarterback here.

And actually, Peter King wrote in his column, I keep hearing Atlanta's leaning quarterback with the logic having Lance, sit behind, Tray Lance, sit behind Matt Ryan for two years, then playing sitting behind Matt Ryan for two years like that just seems crazy to pick a number four there um maybe like if you're picking 28th and you have a guy a chance to like sit for two years or whatever so i think i lean i lean that the falcons are not going to take a quarterback i think they're going to take like cowpits i think they're going to take one of these elite pass catchers i disagree i think it makes a lot of sense when you're actually in the room and you're trying to think

about to having a quarterback sit when you what is the history of recent quarterback sitting right it's like Aaron Rogers sat for a year and then that worked out. Patrick Mojones sat for a year. That worked out. I'm not saying the Trey Lance is those dudes, but it's like it's certainly a lot easier to talk yourself into it when that's the history you've got like, there's something to be said for stability at the position in your least medium term

planning. The flip side is when are you going to be able to get a quarterback if not right now. The Falcons are at four and it's like get it when you need it. Like in fantasy drafts, we talk about this all the time. If you have the first pick or the 10th pick, it's like take the position you need because you're picking again in 20 picks. You won't be there for a long time.

when it's the next time this Hopkins are going to have a top four pick organically. Let me, let me, yeah, and I get that. I mean, that makes sense. Logically, but let me throw this back at you. New regime, new coach. You think they want to sit there, take a quarterback and be like, oh, yeah, we'll have this guy playing two years. We don't even know if we're going to be here in two years. If this all goes south, we might not be here.

We could get fired. I think it's the exact opposite. Because new regime drafts a quarterback, you can't fire them until they get rid of Matt Ryan. This is the opposite. They didn't draft Matt Ryan. They have no loyalty to Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan's 35. They're tying by not drafting a quarterback.

They're buying into Matt Ryan. By drafting a quarterback, they're saying, we'll let him sit for a year. If Matt Ryan does well, maybe two years. If Matt Ryan does poorly, then the clock starts ticking when they bench or get rid of Matt Ryan. And then the new guy, that means you're guaranteed three years of job security because then Trey Lance has to suck three years into his career. The clock starts ticking the moment you make that pick, in my opinion.

And that's the first thing you want to make? I don't know. I don't think a GM who drafts Trey Lance would get fired after he's bad as a rookie. I see your side of the argument. But I'm just trying to put myself in their shoes. Like, if I'm them, I want to at least get better in year one and show that we can put together a winner, have people start buying in, establish the fact that we're doing something, like we're building something good here.

because I feel like if they if they pick at number four pick a quarterback you're not going to have he's not going to have any effect on the team for one year maybe two years that's a long as time in the NFL and like things can go south so that's that's just my point of view so can Matt Ryan Ryan go south that's why you want a quarterback he's 35 but he's he's been like one of the more consistent guys in the last couple years we've talked about this name me tell me one thing

about Matt Ryan he's boring it's the least interesting player in the world he offers a very attractive floor is what I'm saying Anyway here's my pitch on a quarterback The Falcons are boring Atlanta sports is just generally uninspiring It's unbelievable it's a vibrant city That has the hawks and the falcons who are just irrelevant birds

And Justin Fields is from Marietta Georgia Which is like a half hour from like downtown Atlanta UGA has already given They've already state of Georgia's already given up on Justin Fields once Because they let him transfer away for Jake from. I feel like the Falcons also passing on Justin Fields. Like this would be just too much. I kind of, I know this is not actually a real argument, but I feel like Georgia needs Justin Fields back. This is like a do-over. You also would just

do well there. It would be very marketable. The state just needs Justin Field right now. I mean, I would love it if he, honestly, I would love it if he landed in. I mean, after everything I just said, Justin Fields landing in Atlanta would be awesome for his career, I think, because, you know, pair him with a very smart offensive coach. Arthur Smith, we saw what he did for Ryan Tannihill in his career. He designed an offense that perfectly suited his skill set. And I think he could absolutely do that with either Trey Lance, Justin Fields, if that's what it comes down to. So I'm not like against them taking it. I just, I don't know. I'm not sure. My bullshit detectors going off a little bit with this because I think if you're a new, new coach, new regime, new GM, you don't want

to put off being successful for two years, if that makes sense. sense. Okay. So the beep, beep, beep, beep, like the old, the no country for old men, beep, beep, beep. Yeah. It's getting speeding up. He's driving around in the parking lot, you know, like he backs up, you know, he backs up. He's outside the door. Yeah. He's outside the door. He's about to break the door now. Okay. So who are we giving them? Who are we giving them right now at four? I mean, I'm, I think Kyle Pitts. I think Pitts is okay. Kyle Pitts. Tighten. All right. By the way, real quick, real quick on Kyle Pitts, extraordinary pro day. He ran like a 4-4-4.

He has a longer wingspan. I think it was like 84 plus inches than any tight end on like record. The guy is just built. I compared him to Michael Phelps on whatever it was like Monday or Tuesday. I can't remember what day it was. I've lost all track of time. My first time was like his pro comp is now Michael Phelps because if you remember, Michael Phelps was basically born. He was born to be a swimmer.

He has huge hands. He has a long torso, flipper-like feet. like double jointed, double jointed essentially. So like his arms are like he's perfectly like genetically engineered to be a good swimmer. And I think that Cow Pits falls in the same areas like he's built to be a pass catcher man. He's just he was born to do this fast, really long wingspan like great at the catch point. Anyways, I just love Kyle Pitts. So I just wanted to say that.

Is Kyle Pitts like the best tight end prospect? Because it feels like all the great tight end prospects fail. But he to be clear, he's just better than every other tight end prospect from last 20 years. Yes. Yes or no. I think that's, yes. I think that, well, I don't know about 20 years, last 10 years say. He is one of those guys who, I think he's going to get held back a little bit by the history of the position for sure. Like you talked about a lot of these high, like Eric Ebron gets shit on all the time because he was top 10 pick and he was fine. Like he was bad to fine. And I don't think Pitts is going to be like that.

I think Pitts is, and people have been saying this, he's like the unicorn. He's just, there's no one really like him. You can't have, there's no good comps. That's why I went with Michael Phelps. If anything, Darren Waller is the comp. Darren Waller came into the NFL as a receiver, obviously had some personal issues that kind of kept him from doing anything for a couple years and then emerged as this like game changing tight end type player.

So anyways, I think, I think pits, yeah, there's some slight worry, I guess, in the back of my mind. Like, it's like bugging me a little bit that like tight ends have not really lived up to the hype. at, you know, early on, early draft picks have not lived up to height. But I think he's different. I think really we can't, we can't hold the past against him in this case. Wow, that's, wow, can't hold the past against him. I love that. Okay, so pits to the Falcons are four.

So it's Trevor Lawrence to the Jaguars, Zach Wilson of the Jets, Mack Jones to the Niners, Kyle Pitts to the Falcons. Bengals are up at five. This is also weird. So they're not taking a quarterback. They just took Joe Burrow. I think the question is, are they going to take a tackle of their choosing to protect Burrow? so you take a pass catcher to help Burrow

or do they trade down? What do you think happens here? I'm starting to think they're going to take Jamar Chase. I'm starting to really think that's a real thing. I think that right there sitting at number five, reuniting him.

Yeah, reuniting him with his college quarterback, the guy who threw him 20 touchdowns, like he had this unbelievable, one of the all-time receiver seasons, Jamar Chase did. And he was catching passes from Joe Burrow.

So I think, that the Sewell thing I get, like, people are like, you have to protect Joe Burrow. Like, that is priority number one. Getting a guy like Sewell, he's going to plug him into the offense right away. The only thing kind of thinking, like making me think that that might be, not be the case, is this is a pretty deep tackle class. Like, there's a lot of good tackles in this class, maybe not at the level of Sewell, clearly, not maybe a blue, not, there aren't a ton of blue chip tackles, but there are, in my mind, a lot of very good tackles in this class. And so maybe they see that and say, Look, we can get, we can get Jamar Chase here at number five.

And then we can take, we can take a tackle in the second or third round. And he can be, you know, a solid guy that we can plug into our offensive line. So I don't know. I'm just starting to think it's Chase because imagine that offense with T. Higgins, Jamar Chase, Tyler Boyd, Joe makes sense. Like, this is a talent. I can't imagine the offense of Joe Burroughs still running for his life. And that's the thing.

So they have, they signed Riley Rife to play right tackle. But he could theoretically move to guard. I don't know what I think here. either. It's odd because again, should protect Joe Burrow. The thing for me, I think that's evolving my thinking is like, I think we traditionally think you want tackles high because they're hard to get and then you want receivers later because everyone misses on receivers anyway. And honestly, the second round receivers in recent years have been almost better outright than the first round receivers like Michael Thomas and Devante Adams are second round receivers and there's a lot

of busts in the first round anyway. But with this draft, and that's always how this goes, right? Well, you're like, well, this draft's different. This time it's different. But this time. But there is actually a lot of offensive line. You don't usually hear all these draft people be like, oh, no, there's plenty of tackles. Like, you never hear that. There's going to be like, I don't know how many they're going to be in the first 100

picks. There's going to be like 10 or 15 tackles. I mean, it depends on how you view some of these guys. Some players, some of the tack, quote, tackles are probably really guards, but very good offensive alignment that could play tackle. So was Penais Sewell actually the best of the best among the tackles? Or is he just top of the top tier? Like Trevor Lawrence is obviously

Yeah quarterback. Is Penet Sewell closer to like the Trevor Lawrence of the tackles or Not really. No, I think I think there's a few guys at the top of the tackle class that Potentially could be called the best guy. Like Rashon Slater is right there with him

In my mind. He's very, very good. Some people definitely would disagree with me on that. Like people would think I'm being crazy because the thing about Sewell is he's like 20 years old. He's done everything that he's done in his college career and he obviously he sat out this last year but as a freshman and sophomore at Oregon,

he was just dominant at like 18, 19 years old. So like the potential, his athleticism, his size, like basically how he's built, the way he plays technical. Like he has the whole package, but I don't know if he's, in my mind,

he's not necessarily like this on his own tier kind of deal. I think there's, I think him and Rashan Slater are. Do you think old school football guys might hold it against Sewell that he set out this season or Chase too, but especially Sewell because he's an offensive.

of lineman. Yeah, maybe. I don't, I mean, I don't think it's fair, but. No, I'm not, that's not my question. Get into the head of. Get into the head of. Get into the head of. You want you to live, breathe, and eat football. Right. Will they hold it against someone who held out? Maybe, maybe. It's in the realm of possibility for sure. Let's rank the likelihood of all these, like, hypotheticals. So like, let's just go through, take me through, rank them in order of like what you, how you

think they will happen, not how you should happen. If NFL draft.draft.orgor.com, if you want to see DK's big board and you can see how he ranks all these prospects. It's also awesome. NFL draft that the ringer. Shameless plug. But take me through these scenarios for the quarterbacks in terms of most likely to least likely. So I think scenario one, and we'll call this the Occam's Razor, it's this, the pick is Mac Jones. I guess, and I guess we can include Zach Wilson in this.

Yeah. The thing everyone's saying is real. Yeah, this is the most likely scenario, at least how it feels right now. Trevor Lawrence one, Zach Wilson, two, and then Mac Jones three. which means really the draft starts at four and what the Falcons do. And in this scenario, I think really what the big question is is what happens with Fields and Lance, where do they go? Yeah.

I think I guess the most likely scenario would be Fields to the Panthers, Trey Lance to the Broncos, but I don't have a strong like grasp on, you know, who those teams would like more. So it's really just Fields and Lance to Panthers and Broncos would be the most likely scenario. So basically what I'm saying is Jags, Jets, 49ers, Panthers, Broncos get quarterbacks. Okay. And then Mack Jones, it's all real. So what's, yeah, what if the Niners pivot point?

What if it's not actually Mac Jones? Yeah. So scenario two, the Mac Jones thing is bullshit, part one. So if this Mac Jones thing is just really like- The Chernobyl scenario, the whole thing was bullshit. Yeah, exactly. If this Mac Jones thing is like elaborate smoke screen, which I think it has a chance to be.

It feels right now like Trey Lance would be like their number two option. That's what, at least what you're hearing and what reports are right now. In that case, it would be Trevor Lawrence, Zack Wilson, Trey Lance, one, two, three. And then that would leave

Justin Fields and Mack Jones to the rest of the teams that potentially want a quarterback. In this situation, Panthers and Broncos feel like the most likely ones. Does that mean the Broncos are happy to take Matt Jones at nine? Or do they trade up and get Justin Fields over the Panthers?

or maybe the Panthers like Mac Jones. And so anyways, this scenario is basically saying it's a little bit more chaotic than everyone's making it out to be. Trey Lance number three. And then you got Fields and Jones left out there for teams to like squabble over. And so I think there's,

this one feels like it, it wouldn't be surprising to me at all if this is like what kind of how things go down. And then basically you have a scramble for Jones and fields after the first three. Matt Jones in Denver just that seems like how it should be well that seems like how this should go Elway is apparently not running shit anymore but

I think he's still probably like steering the ship a little bit but yeah I mean he's a tall he's a tall immobile quarterback like like the Broncos have seemed to like over the last few years Brock Osweiler hey Patrick looking white dude yeah yeah okay but um yeah It's get a little more interesting. Give me some dark horse scenario.

Spice things up. The things were like, oh, my God, we can't believe that happened. Well, first of all, before we get to the dark horse, there is one scenario where the Mac Jones thing is bullshit, and it's Justin Fields is the pick. And then you just flip it off. You flip it over, straight-lance. For the record, Justin Fields on the Niners is like whatever one wants to see,

probably. And I feel like is the most exciting version of the NFL for 2021, is Fields on the Niners. That would be fun as hell, in my opinion. So that's the other scenario. So going to the more dark horse, let's talk about some of these things that are probably not more, they're very unlikely to happen, I think.

But I don't think we can dismiss them. I don't think we should just like poo-poo the idea that this could happen. Dark Horse scenario one, this is Baker 2.0. The Jets don't actually take Zach Wilson and chaos rain. Yes. Yes. I love it. I love it. I love it. So for instance, say either the Panthers or the Broncos, call up New York and are like, hey, we will give you anything you want for this pick.

And they get like four first rounders or something ridiculous. Oh, the Jets trade the pick. I thought you're going to say like they draft a different quarterback. Either way. Actually, that's a good point. Maybe the Jets don't take Wilson and they just take a different quarterback. And then our minds all explode. It would be hilarious after all this.

Lawrence and Fields just go one, too. Right. It would be funny. I mean, it's like, and it's not even that, like, weird to think about. Like, it's not something that's completely, you know, fabricated or made up. I do think, like, everything is pointing to Wilson being this pick, but it's not out of the realm of possibility that maybe they're just, like, you know, playing the cards really close to their vest. So in this scenario, either A, they trade the pick and pick up, like, this king's ransom of first rounders. They could still potentially go back to number eight and still get a quarterback.

Maybe they love Mac Jones, too. you know, and they can get him at number eight. Or maybe Trey Lance Falls number eight. Like there's so many. The currency of this trip. So this like I know chess is like a big subject along a lot of people because of the Queens Gambin and stuff. But in a chat,

the chess analogy here is like every move, every pick that happens, there's like a thousand million scenarios that could happen. So basically like you can't predict a, you can't predict a chess game because there's like 50 quadrillion like potential possibilities based on like how every piece moves. that's like how this draft is. That's why everyone sucks so much at mock drafts

because it's freaking impossible to predict any of this shit. But if the Jets don't take Zach Wilson, number one, where does Zach Wilson go? Have you even thought about that? Like, the 49ers love Zach Wilson. I think the Niners who take him. Yeah.

If the Niners should take him, he's there. If the Niners took Mac Jones over Zach Wilson, that would be hilarious too. Like, they actually think Mac Jones is better than Trevor Lawrence. Like, they just not his number one guy on their board is like Mac Jones. What if Zach Wilson just fell?

Like, that would be the most bizarre world where all of a sudden like... Would it be bizarre or would it be just what everyone thought would happen in like early January? Yeah, no, like going back to, I think like November maybe, like people were talking about him as a fringe first rounder. Zach Wilson. So maybe maybe a little bit earlier, maybe a little bit earlier. You know, I don't know exactly when it started to, it started to be that he was like... He's not falling past three. I know that.

I'm just saying there's there's a world and like maybe like the universe. there's one iteration of a thousand different scenarios where that happens. Oh, the doctor strange. Yeah, the doctor strange. Right, exactly. So, so that is, that is dark core scenario one. And then I think, like, you could throw out dark course scenario two would be a weird team that we're not really talking about, trades up into the top, like 10 somewhere, top eight. Like who?

To take a quarterback. So, like, for instance, the Brady replacement scenario. the Patriots have done a lot over this offseason to solidify basically every fucking position on their roster. I mean, they did sign Cam Newton, but maybe they see... Five million dollars. The money talks...

Can you make more money than that? Yeah, the money definitely talks when it comes to Newton. It's all incentive-based, or not all, but a big chunk of it is incentive-based. It's like a one-year deal. And I think that tells you they're okay with him being the starter. And hopefully he can be a good starter for them, but I don't think they're necessarily out on quarterback this year.

So maybe they're this team that goes up. For the record, the Browns pay case getting him $6 million to back up Baker-Mayfield. Cam's getting $5 million base. Yeah. So that, I mean, that tells you, number one, like the market wasn't strong for Newton. And number two, they're not completely sold that he's their starter this year. I think at least 100%. I think they'd be fine with him being the starter.

But maybe they're a team that comes out of nowhere and trades up and gets a quarterback. Or maybe, I don't know, throw. throw a couple other teams. You think that could be like the Dark Horse trade-up team that no one's really talking about. Maybe the Saints out of nowhere come up and decide that they want to get involved. The Steelers, the Steelers. You know,

you got to leave you and say, hey, stay there for a second. The Saints training up after signing, resigning Tase of Mill and James Winston. Do you remember that episode? It's always sunny with the cats in a wall. And then I got a cat in my wall.

How do you get about putting a second cat? And then Frank comes up, but it's like, I got two cats stuck in this wall. what are we going to do? We're like, I'm thinking a third cat. Like, I was thinking a fourth. Like, that's the Saints, but it's the quarterbacks.

Like, we got two quarterbacks. Let's just go get. Everyone wants Mac Jones. That's the answer. I'm thinking of fourth. So maybe, yeah, okay, so the Saints, I don't know how the Saints would do it, but, you know, anything is possible. I don't know.

The Steelers, the post-Ben-Rothersberger era is bleak-looking at a quarterback, at least for them. So that's an option. It's bleak-looking. The Bears? they're not that far back that they could make a move up into the top eight still even though they signed by that front office more time yeah so they're another team and then like we haven't really mentioned this but i do think there is a chance the dolphins or the lions do end up taking a quarterback i think it's i don't think it's like the favorite it's certainly not the favorite or like the most likely

scenario but the dolphins straight back up to six everyone is assuming that this means they're going for one of Jamar Chase, Cow Pitts, Waddle, or Smith. And that makes the most sense. That's the logical thing. However, maybe they just think we can still get a quarterback of this spot. You know, who knows?

So I think those are the other dark horse options. I think that we need to like at least entertain the idea that this is possible. You want a dark horse? You want one more dark horse trade for you? Yeah. Raiders sitting there at 17. Derek Carter, the Broncos for ninth pick. There you go.

another one that I think I'm not ruling out anything in this draft. I think this is going to be a wacky draft because number one, you know, with so much with with the combine being canceled, pro days being all over the place, the cap is weird. Like there's so many variables this year because of COVID that make it a weird season. Number one, there's going to be a lot of picks that people are like,

what? He was been, he was being talked about as like a third rounder and he's like a top 15 pick or something like that. You know what I mean? There's going to be. You mean Justin Fields? Right.

There's going to be weird picks, I think, in the first round that people are not expecting. And it's going to go completely against consensus. Consensus, but the teams, for whatever reason, like, love this guy. And they picked him early or way late or something like that. And then number two, I think there could be just wacky, wild trades, you know. And we already saw, like, we saw two trades happen a month and a week before the draft. Like, that's weird. like why did they do this like so far ahead of the draft what does that mean like are we going to have

a bunch of weird like weird trades right on the draft too um anyways i think this is just a fun season this is our fun draft season it's a fun draft in general just because there's so much uncertainty around everything i have no i have no clue like how any of this is going to go it's going to be awesome well on that note do you have any like really weird like out there like if you were just like if you were to rip a bong right now what would you throw out there like just like get galaxy brain Well, if we're really going to, if we're really going to get into it, like Trevor Lawrence not being the first pick would throw everything. Like it would be like a nuclear explosion at the top of the draft and would throw everything off. And then you could have like other than Lawrence.

Other than Lawrence. Well, honestly, no, I don't know. There's like there's a million permutations here. Like I think the weirdest things that could happen is the 49ers not picking a quarterback. Like trading up. Maybe they just take Kyle Pitts and just go. ham with with Kittle and Pitts

and just like burn through the NFL. You know what I mean? Like that would be wacky and wild and hilarious and fun. So the Patriots go too tight ends and they're like, we'll show you. Do we know for sure that they're picking a quarterback? Has there been any reports like definitively saying this is for a quarterback?

And I saw Bill Barnwell. It's for a quarterback. The day of the day of the trade. He was like, if they just, if they wanted to trade the future to go up and get Pitts and then just like go like hard on the NFL with Kyle Pitts and Kittle like I would respect it.

Something like that. That's hilarious. That would be I guess like I don't know. I'm racking my brain trying to think of other weird scenarios, but that would be a funny one. All right. So Kyle Pitts is going number three to the Niners. Glad we could settle that.

There we go. That was easy. Love it. Well, now that that's settled. All right. That's the episode. We will be coming to guys on Fridays and Mondays until the draft. So that's going to be a lot of fun.

Kevin and Noah will be coming on Wednesdays. Thank you over for listening. Thank you, D.K. Thank you, Isaiah, behind the glass. Thank you, Kyle Pitts for being the third pick in the draft. Really, thank you for clearing that up. Can't wait. Cannot wait.

Excited for us and Wilson get traded. Can't wait for that either. Gah. Got me. Got me.