The Ringer NFL Show - Ranking the No. 1 Picks From the Last 20 Years | Big Board

Episode Date: February 26, 2021

'The Ringer Fantasy Football Show' hosts Danny Heifetz and Danny Kelly are joined by Nora Princiotti, and they start by discussing the Russell Wilson rumors (3:34). Then they break down former Clemson quarterback and likely no. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence’s skills and college career (16:19). After that they discuss Heifetz’s rankings of the no. 1 picks from the last 20 years (23:26). Follow 'The Ringer Fantasy Football Show'. Hosts: Danny Heifetz and Danny Kelly Guest: Nora Princiotti Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It's basketball season and we've got you covered. The Ringer NBA show breaks down the latest and greatest around the league five days a week. Check out the Ringer NBA show on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. My name is Danny Hifitz and I am joined by my co-host, Danny Kelly. You may know us from the Ringer Fantasy Football Show, which we were also on this feed as the Dannessy Football Podcast for a couple of years. Turns out when you Google Dantasy, it just comes up as fantasy. So we're the Ringer Fantasy Football Show now and you can check us out.

there. We do every Wednesday and during the off season. D.K., we're cheating on Craig. How does it feel? It's a little bit weird. Gonna miss him. A little bit. Yeah, we'll talk to him a little bit later this week or next week. Yeah. So, DK. and I are going to be on this feed on the Ringer NFL show every

Friday through the draft. It's going to be the big board and we're going to be ranking something involving the draft every Friday through the draft. People love draft ranks. People love rankings. People love the draft. But most of all, people have Noropin, which is why we have Nora on as our first guest.

Nora, you host something on this feed. You also were one of the last people I saw before the pandemic hit. So, hello. How are you? Hi, Danys. I'm so happy. I'm in just a great place since I'm potting with you guys. I'm psyched.

You're going to be on our feed doing all this stuff. Hell yeah. Great for the ringer NFL show. Great for the listeners. Great for just society. We're at large. And yeah, I mean, we were an indie. We were having the time of our lives.

I think we had some pizza. I didn't work at the ringer yet so it was all kind of a precursor to this moment right here and this very podcast yeah we were just hangar it was almost a year ago to the day too and then like the world shut down

which is crazy but so we're going to talk where else to start big board and draft stuff other than Trevor Lawrence so we're going to talk Trevor Lawrence and then we're talking number one picks and number one picks are kind of weird so we ended up let's just I kind of ranked the number one picks last 20 years I was going to say we, but it's not really we.

I kind of write them. I like how you did this. I like how you did this because then we can just totally talk about how terrible your ranks are. Yeah, but mostly it's going through number one picks and number one picks are kind of weird. They're not as good as you think. But before we can get to any of this, we're out here. We're just going to do a podcast. And then Russell Wilson, this news drops from the athletic.

Apparently Russell Wilson kind of wants to leave Seattle. Danny Kelly, huge Seahawks fan. On a scale of 1 to 10, how emotionally devastated are you, right now, Danny Kelly. I'm not emotionally devastated. I'm going to change the ranking, the rating that you just mentioned, because I've been using a five big top circus rating for the Seahawks. The Seahawks have been a circus since basically Pete Carroll came to town.

Varying levels of circusness throughout the years, obviously with a lot of drama, a lot of big personalities in Seattle. Right now, I elevated the circus rating to three big tops out of five. I wasn't quite ready to believe all the rumors and all the smoke kind of going around about Seattle right, you know, until this morning, Michael Sean Dugar, Mike Sando, Jason Jenks, all three very good reporters. This to me is kind of the first time I'm starting to get a little bit worried that like there's actually something to this.

Like Russell Wilson, I don't think he's going to get traded right away, but it does feel like there's a divorce on the horizon coming, like, whether it's, you know, at the end of this season or maybe there's a slight possibility even before this year gets off. So yeah, I'm starting to feel like this is, there's actually something to do this. Where there's smoke, there's fire. And Wilson is clearly trying to exert. It feels to be like Wilson's trying to exert his, you know, pressure on the Seahawks to kind

of like get back to doing things that way that he wants to do it. Yeah. So a big report for the athletic basically saying that Russell Wilson wants to pass more, cook more. I hate that phrase, but cook, whatever. And that he kind of may want to trade to. somewhere else, dolphins, jets, Saints, Raiders. Nora, what do you make of all this as someone who's not emotionally invested in Seattle?

Or maybe you are, I don't know. I'm emotionally invested in Seattle because I live for drama. So I like the Seahawks in their current configuration and I would like for Russell Wilson to stay there. Big picture. Did the let Russ Cook movement ruin the Seahawks? I think there's a possibility that in hindsight we're going to go, oh my gosh, everybody tweeted so much that Russell Wilson adopted this deeply held belief that he was being held back, which is in part true.

But it undermined the very fabric of their organization and potentially led to this divorce between a great quarterback and a franchise that Wall Wild, which again, I appreciate, is really successful. Russell Wilson, the grass is not necessarily greener. And I will say in that report, there were some details that gave me a little bit of pause about his mindset where they were talking about his desire to be Tom Brady like

and his admiration for Derek Jeter, Russ, you're amazing. Those guys are kind of one of a kind. I don't know that chasing Tom Brady status is a good idea or something that's going to work out. The other thing I want to mention, some of this apparently went down in that box at the Super Bowl where Sierra and Russ were with the Goodells.

I would read 10,000 words. in oral history format or whatever about what that room was like on that day. I, I, there is nothing else in this world that I want to know about more than Sierra and Roger Goodell making small talk while Russell Wilson fires off angry text messages about how he's on pace to be like the most sacked quarterback in NFL history. That is just, that is juicy stuff. And I don't want it to end. This is Russ.

Stay in Seattle. Keep it going. Andy Cohen's got to come in and do, just break it all down, get everybody on the couch. They'll talk it out. They'll hash it out. And it's going to be okay. But I need the Seahawks because the Seahawks are fun.

Matt got, I was more emotional there than I thought I was going to be. Yeah. I really care about this. I think you're speaking logically. However, Russell Wilson absolutely believes that he can be on Tom Brady's level. You know what I mean?

Like there's no chance he's going to be like, you know, I'm happy being pretty good. he sees himself as, you know, a legendary player. He's said that since like the day he got to Seattle. Even when he went through, you know, his ups and downs early on in his career, he's always been talking about how he wants to be great, how he wants to be, you know, this all-timer type player.

So I don't, I mean, I think that the roulette Russ Cook thing is definitely, you know, it's been a part of what's happening with like the Seahawks relationship. But I don't think it's what the actual catalyst, because I think Russell was always going to want this. He was always going to want to be, you know, expand his legacy. And they talk about this in this athletic article. Like he wants the MVP award. He wants, you know, multiple Super Bowls.

He wants the statistics, honestly, that will have him be remembered as one of the great all-time players. So he absolutely does want that. And he sees himself as that. And so while logically speaking, it's like you'd want to tell him, hey, man, things are pretty good where you are and you should just be happy that you're winning 10 plus games every season and having a chance to go to the playoffs and all that stuff

like that's not it's not realistic I don't think with him. Yeah, I think it's a good point, D.K., where he kind of seems to want this Tom Brady like career, but Russell Wilson's always been kind of a cartoon character, right? Like he just, he's like a human cliche came to life like all those athlete motivational Instagram posts.

If they had a human body and all of 10 million of them tags became a person, it would be Russell Wilson. Like he's all about the team and his teammates in Seattle kind of thought he was corny and inauthentic because it's like who could possibly be all about cliches and like togetherness and all this stuff. But he really seems to believe it. Yeah, Pete Carroll. Yeah, that's why they get along. And so seeing that the ego kind of come out now in his mid 30s where it's like actually I have always one of the MVPs and I have always wanted to be the best that it is about me is kind

of really striking to have all that come out. And then it's not like the winning stuff is fake or whatever, but I do think it's interesting to see him chasing the individual accolades at this age. And from his perspective, if he's made it this far in life, why is it so crazy to think he could be Tom Brady? Like, it was hard enough for this short guy who wasn't heavily recruited in high school, not heavily drafted to already be in his stature is a crazier leap than him going from where he is now to becoming Tom Brady. From his perspective, I kind of see where he's coming from, but the flip side is, I don't think

that this is going to happen. We were slacking with Kevin Clark before this pod. Nora, what do you think is more likely? Russ getting traded or Deshawn Watson getting traded? Deshawn Watson getting traded with the caveat that I don't view the Houston Texans as a rational actor, so it's very hard to predict what they're going to do. But we just saw Deshaun Watson have an incredible season and it wasn't good enough to make them a good team. So if you are a rational actor and you have an unhappy Deshaun, you should unload him before the draft and use it as a reset for your entire franchise.

just it didn't go well, let's scrap it and try again. The Seahawks, if they can get over this, they're still a good team. So they should try to salvage this, in my view. They're pretty good. They could be a lot. They're not the most Texans. No, but that's why they should try to keep Russ. I mean, they win 10 games like every year, Hyatt.

Use the term rational actor like this is war games. It is. The Seahawks with Crest has the more recent track record of succeeding than the Texans do with Sean Watson, and that seems to only be going one direction, which is downhill. So logically, and again, I don't ascribe logic as a huge part of things that are going on in Houston, Texas right now with regards to the professional football team there. But if you use logic, then yes, don't get into this hold out forever, everyone's entrenched thing, or you're just going to stink and prolong the process of rebuilding that team.

trade him, start fresh. I don't think it's as clear cut in Seattle. I think you should really try to keep Russell Wilson there if you can. I think the thing that's interesting me here is that the optics really matter. And I think that Russ is saying that in some ways. And that with Deshawn Watson, the reason that this is such a different situation is that when Deshawn Watson asks for a trade, everyone's like, oh, yeah, that's smart. The Texans are a dumpster fire.

And no one's mad at Deshawn Watson. Usually when a player asks for a trade, everyone's mad at the player. DK, if Russ actually does want to trade, how would Seahawks fans react? Because I feel like Seahawks fans love Russ. Yeah, that's a tough one. I'm sure it would be very divided because there's already a strong divide of people in Pete Carroll's camp and people in Russell Wilson's camp, I think. You know, Pete Carroll has brought the most consistent, the greatest stretch of prosperity for the Seahawks franchise ever. And so a lot of people are like, you know, if you think this is Pete Carroll's fault, you're insane.

And then on the other hand, there's this really strong camp that's very active on Twitter that wants Pete to let Russ cook. And they view Pete Carroll as the reason the Seahawks are a perennial, pretty good team, but not a great team, if that makes any sense. They view Pete Carroll as the reason the Seahawks are not the chiefs. So I think that there would be a very strong divide. There would be some people that would be like, I just want Russ to go somewhere where he's going to maximize his career. So I would get this. And it's stupid. And I think those people would be like,

it sucks that the Seahawks are picking Pete Carroll over Russell Wilson. And then on the other hand, I think there'd be a camp of people that are like, Wilson's not as good as he thinks he is. And keeping this future, future Hall of Fame coach here is the most important thing. He's going to provide that stability. Every year you're going to get 10 wins or whatever.

So I think it would be very divided along those two lines. Can't both of those things kind of be true? Because if Russell Wilson thinks that he's Tom Brady, he's not as good as he thinks. thinks he is, but he's still really good. And the Seahawks should occasionally let him pass more aggressively on early downs. Like,

sit it out, just talk it out, figure it out. There's a gray area. Yeah. I think the funny thing, Pete Carroll's like this surfer dude, chill guy, but like also intensely stubborn because he went 53 and 0 at USC or whatever when they won the turnover battle. So like this idea that they would

be flexible about like he's it's like this very old school kind of style couched in like this very new vibes. I'm good with millennials even though I'm the oldest coach in the NFL kind of vibe. But, D.K., to your point about the Seahawks Twitter, people wanting Russ to throw and then other people wanting Pete Carroll, is the people on Twitter like this vocal minority and that most people are probably going to side with Pete Carroll, but those people are not online? I don't know.

I'm not sure. I live in the vocal minority, so it's hard to know. I'm in like that Seahawks echo chamber, you know, so it's one of those things where like you've been radicalized online for yeah for people who are always on twitter like me when you talk to your friends who are not on twitter they're like what are you talking about i have no idea that this is even a thing you know what i mean it's like old people like me not knowing what's going on on ticot uh so when i wouldn't if i'm trying to like decide whether the majority of people are in the let russ cook camp i have no idea i know you asked other danny that question

if the question is, are people on Twitter in a vocal minority, the answer is always yes. The answer to that question has never once in the history of the universe, then no. That's a good point. Okay. Let's get to the actual point of today's podcast. Well, really, the point of the podcast will and always will be mining Danny Kelly's emotional angst for content. Plumbing the depths. Yeah.

Plumbing the depths. But now let's get to the number one show. We're doing the show about the draft. called the big board. Gotta start any big board with Trevor Lawrence. So we're going to get into the history of number one picks

over the last 20 years because it's actually pretty interesting. But first, D.K., give us the full report on Trevor Lawrence because you just keep hearing his name but like, let's pretend for a second.

We don't actually know the dude's deal and he just looks like Sunshine from Remember the Titans. Tell me about him. Yeah, so he, I think the question that I would get asked the most is he actually worth the hype? Like, is he as good as the hype would indicate?

And I think his, his skill set certainly it like is a he has a generational type skill set I'm throwing up very strong you know air quotes right now generational um I would say he's tall he's athletic he's got a good arm he's very accurate he's he's renowned as being a very strong and you know uh even keeled leader

he has the mobile element that is so important in the NFL today he can move around in the pocket he can make you pay with his legs like he can hit a home run with his legs um And he's done that multiple times in his career. So from a skill set point of view, and I think that's where we have to start right now, he has pretty much everything that you'd want. Maybe he doesn't have like a Josh Allen arm. So he doesn't have an elite, elite arm.

But his arm talent is good, whereas he's very accurate. He can feather the ball. He can layer it, as they say, you know, over the middle of the field, change the velocity. And so I think he's he's as good of a prospect from a skill set point of view as we've seen in a long time. So I think he absolutely deserves the hype, in my opinion. And he's been a three-year starter. You know, he's like he's experienced. That's of all, of course, a very important thing where you see a lot of guys kind of are flashing the pan and they come into the NFL, like, you know, the Trubisky thing, where you love his skill set, but he doesn't have enough experience.

Like Trevor Lawrence, you know, won a national title as a freshman. So, you know, he's got the experience in the big games. And so I do think that he lives up to the hype in terms of his skill set. And the Mount Rushmore of quarterback prospects is John Elway, it's Peyton Manning, it's Andrew Luck and Trevor Lawrence. And Lawrence deserves to be on that mountain as of right in just terms of what I think so, yes. And I and I comped him to Fabio quaffed John Elway because of his status as, you know, one of the greatest prospects, one of the most anticipated prospects. We were sitting here several years ago talking about how he was obviously going to be the number one pick, you know, right after he'd won that national title. So I think that alone is just the anticipation it's built up for a couple of years now.

But I think he does live up to it. Nora, he's probably going to go to Jacksonville. They hired Urban Meyer. I mean, it's Jacksonville. What do you make of the fit for Trevor Lawrence and with the Jaguars? Relative to destinations for number one picks, I think it's fine. I think it's nice that they have a sort of blank canvas there. One thing that I'll be curious to see,

he's going to be working with Daryl Bevel, doesn't have as much of a history as using sort of the screen RPO, short stuff game that Lawrence was doing a ton of in college, but they have resources to blow. They actually have a pretty decent young offensive line. They're going to have to figure out their left tackle situation, but they should be able to protect him okay. There are so many unknown.

just with how they're going to spend, how they're going to add around him that we'll see if the scheme supports him appropriately. But as Danny was just explaining, Trevor Lawrence is a prospect with a pretty high floor who can do a lot of things. I worry less about that

than have questions about both for Lawrence and Meyer, that pairing. How are they going to react to some of the realities of being the team? that gets to pick first. Because they're not necessarily going to win and be awesome right away. Trevor Lawrence is so well known

for having those awesome leadership qualities and being the type of guy that is going to be okay in a locker room if you're going through some lean times. Urban Meyer obviously does not react well to losing. And they're probably going to have to do some losing. And that to me... Amazing that that's been the thing around Urban Myers.

How is he going to handle losing? Well, he's probably going to have to. Right. No, you're right. No, you're dead right. And Lawrence, like, from what we know about Trevor Lawrence, he's probably, he's pretty even keel. He can handle adversity. He's probably okay there, but he's not a guy who has a long history of struggling at football. Right, right. So if that

happens, that is my question. Like, I think culturally, Kevin Clark always says this. Jacksonville's not a bad place to be a football player. Like some of that stuff, they're set up to have a little bit of a runway, figure it out, try some stuff. Work on. that relationship with Bevel, figure out what works, what doesn't add around. But yeah, this isn't going to be an immediately great football team. So more than how does he fit in the offense, I'm curious, how does he fit within that context? I think that is the, that's a perfect segue really to this whole discussion that we're going to have about the first overall picks of the draft because all these guys are talented, right?

everyone that's taken the first overall in the last 20 years is supremely talented. Everyone was super excited about them. But the big thing about going into the NFL is that you have to adapt to that life. And you have to be the right personality to persevere through like, you know, most of the time there's a reason teams are picking first. You know, you have to go from being like the guy, the stud in college, like on a lot of cases on a championship team or on a very good team. and then, you know, adapt to life where your team sucks and you're just like an afterthought, or more or less, you know, in the NFL. So, and for the first time in your life, for most of these guys have never been on a bad team

in any sport ever. Right. So I think that is really the key for a lot of these guys, not the talent. It's, it's, you know, their ability to transition to the NFL and stay grounded, I guess, and what's kept them or what's made them successful in the past and continue to do that work hard and all that stuff. So it's it's one of those things that's so impossible to predict. You cannot predict it. It kind of,

this is a little bit of a hot take. It kind of sucks to be a number one pick. Yeah. Like it really kind of blows. Like it used to be awesome because you got just like a boat load of money. But you don't get all. Like, I mean, Trevor Lawrence is going to make like Marcus Mariotta money and there's all this pressure. And he's going to be on a bad team.

Like it's, it's. sucks. Sorry, Trevor. I'm trying to, all right, I guess it sucks compared to like going to the top five or like generally sucks. Yeah, you want to get drafted like fourth. Fourth overall, I have not worked out for this take. Oh, it's fine. Well, you just did. That's the sweet spot. That's the sweet spot.

So let's get into this. So I ranked and you guys can shred my rankings, but I ranked the last, basically the 21st century of number one picks. because it's kind of a fascinating list. You can pull it up if you want. It's on Wikipedia or Pro Football Reference or whatever you want. So I broke them into six tiers. We're going to go backwards. So just tier, bottom tier here,

which is basically people in the running for the worst number one pick of the last 20 years. So I've got Marcus Russell, 07, tough. David Carr, who was the, like, the Texans, and then Courtney Brown, who is defensive end for the Browns, Penn State. Tough bottom tier.

Yeah. The Jamarcus Russell deep dive is depressing, to be honest. So I hate this, but my defining thing for Jamarcus Russell is twofold. One, they didn't think he was watching tape. So they sent him home like blank cassettes. And also it was so long ago there were cassettes. And then they asked him, how were they? And he said, yeah, I studied blitz packages, which is really tough.

And then also, have you ever seen the Stephen A. Smith rant on Jamarcus Russell? I have now because you sent it to us. unbelievable stuff. It's like the only time we saw him give a speck of effort is when he was literally caught a camera blowing his nose. So it's tough.

So there's a YouTube video of it. And after this just like iconic like frankly mean-spirited rant like Stephen A. Finn called him that like six different times. It's totally like, geez man. Over the line. But then at the very end of it,

there's just a second where Skip leans back in his chair and goes, he didn't pick himself. And it's like just peak television in 2007-8 era. When Skip Bayless thinks you're being mean-spirited, that is unbelievable.

Skip Bayless is like, you've gone too far. Oh my God. So I was going back last night to kind of try and relive the Jamarcus Russell experience in reading some stuff about it because it was a long time ago. One quote that stood out,

everybody was enamored with his pro day or I can't I think it was his pro day when he threw it was like the greatest pro day effort performance of all time legitimately legendary like if what you marcus russell was good the legend of him would have started at the pro day yeah so the pro day was like this massive turning point I think I think they I saw a quote from John Gruden he said it was like Star Wars which I don't really understand what that means, but I kind of do. So I want to kind of just recap Russell real quick because I think he probably falls here as the worst of all time. I think he has to. So he was cut in three years. Yeah, just to jog your memory.

The big thing is he has, he was the Josh Allen prospect. Like the physical tools, tools were unrivaled. Like the team, the team is taking this guy because he has a cannon. He can throw it 70 yards from his knees, things like that, like the legend of Jamarck. Marcus Russell. Star Wars.

He got off to a bad start. He held out. I didn't even remember this. He held out as a rookie. He missed the first two weeks of the season. Ended up making one star in his first season. Started 15 games in his second season. He was bad.

And then he reported to camp at 305 pounds his third season. Imagine a 3005 pound. That was more than the left tackle that year. The left tackle reported at 3.01. Yeah. So there was also, so obviously, yeah, the, the tape anecdote that got released later on after he'd already retired and all that, where they tested him if he was watching tape.

Who knows if that's real? It sounds real, but the overall consensus is he just didn't have the work ethic or the burning desire to be great or whatever that a lot of these great quarterbacks have. And that was a big reason that he didn't work out. I will say, and this is a segue to David Carr, unless you guys have other things to add. It's not like he landed in a great situation,

which I think is also... It's a hard situation, being a number one pick. To be fair, to Norris' point, it's not hard. It's not easy to just be like 20 years old and just get a lot of money and just your entire life and everyone relationship changes around you.

It's a difficult situation. And there was rumors at the time that he was not Lane Kiffin's choice for the pick. Kiffin wanted Calvin Johnson, apparently. This is what I was reading last night. So that's not a good story. Britney Spears vibes around Jamarcus Russell. We were all kind of mean.

And I started thinking that around Stephen A. Smith where it's like, we wouldn't talk about anyone this way today. It was kind of mean-spirited. So I will offer a belated apology to Jamarcus Russell. Yeah. The other person who's in the running for the worst pick is David Carr. This is also a strange situation because in another world, David Carr, he's like, could have been a really great quarterback. He was ruined this expansion Texans franchise. Just to throw out a couple stats.

he was sacked 249 times in his first four years. Peyton was, Peyton Manning was sacked 300 times in his entire career. Insane. So that's crazy. And the other thing he mentioned was that it wasn't just the physical burden, but also the mental side that he just wasn't seeing how to be a franchise quarterback. And then he didn't really learn that until he was a backup and his career was ruined.

But yeah, Nora, who's like, who's the most disappointing pick? Is it Jamarcus or is it David Carr? It's Jim Marcus. I tried to walk myself through the intellectual exercise of if you want to make an argument that it's David Carr, how would you do that? But it just wasn't, he wasn't at fault in the same way that I think, even though everyone was probably a little too mean to Jamarcus Russell, seemed like that was a little bit on him. Not that the Raiders were good, but David Carr was wrecked mentally because he was running for his life in a way. way that is kind of unprecedented for this sport.

Like, he was like 76 times as a rookie. That's, that's an unbelievable number. That's just like you don't come back from that. He was, and then year four, he was like 68 times.

Like the three most sacks seasons ever are like David Carr, Randall Cuttingham, and the David Carr again. Like, which is so freaking messed up. This is actually a good point though. I think it's, it's an inch,

like going back to the Russell Wilson, like Russell's all mad about getting sacked all the time. There is an element of like it's the quarterback's fault partly when you're getting stacked. It's a quarterback stat. And I was going in and I actually somehow landed on a message board where people were arguing about David Carr and whether he was like the greatest bust of all time. To this day, people are still arguing like he held onto the ball too long.

It's totally his fault versus like they had an awful dreadful offensive line. It was the Texans fault. So we'll see. We'll see what history says. But I think there is some element that it's the quarterback's fault when you're getting sacked that much too. Sometimes. It's not. Okay, first of all, no one person is solely responsible when someone's getting sacked 76 times.

That's not just on the quarterback. Like, David Carr didn't do that by himself. You're probably right. You're probably right. Well, speaking of blocking, let's go to Tier 5. Pro Bowl offensive lineman. So we got Jake Long left tackle for the Dolphins 2008 when number one. I think he signed to be the first pick like two weeks before.

And then also I got Eric Fisher here left tackle for the Chiefs. Jake Long was better. Got hurt. Eric Fisher was fine and played longer. Do you guys have thoughts on these guys? I think they're immensely boring. I think that's right. The thing that stood out to me from this is just how abysmal the 2013 draft where

Fisher went first was. Like there were just like no good players in that draft like at all. It was just disaster. Wait. Luke Jockel or something was... Can you lose the top 10 for us real quick for 2013? It's unbelievable how irrelevant these guys ended up being. Eric Fisher, Jokal, Dionne Jordan, Lane Johnson, Zika Yolansa,

Barquevius Mingo, Jonathan Cooper, Tavon Austin, D. Milner. It just, it gets worse. Like, Sheldon Richardson. This is crazy. Of the top 10, I think Tavon Austin had like the third best career of the people you just listed her fourth best. E.J. Manuel was the first quarterback taken.

E.J. Manuel. So who is like announcing Trevor Lawrence's pro day the other day? And I was like, wow, that's that's, okay, wasn't what happened to you. So anyway, 2013, terrible draft. Yeah, I think it's fine. Rood off. This is the tier of, you know, you always want to take the trench guy. You want to take the blind side protector and blah, blah, blah, blah.

But it's always so boring. And so even though both of these guys are fine. They're good. Jake Long was a very good player. But it's just boring. So that's why we put him in two and five, I think. That makes sense. Hold on.

There's not a single good quarterback taken in this draft. E.J. Manuel, Gino Smith, Mike Lennon, Matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib, Tyler Wilson, Landry Jones, Brad Sorensen, Zach Dysert, B.J. Daniels, Sean Renfrey. Farmers, you know, farmers let, like, a field lie fallow for a year so that it can grow back stronger. It's like 2013 was, like, a generational fallow year of talent because then 2014, it was like Aaron Donald and Odell, like, all this amazing draft. And 13 was just, I guess we didn't have any good players. that you're okay let's move up tier four the i don't know what to do i didn't know how to rank these guys

all right so i've got just put in a group i've got kiler murray joe burrow baker mayfield because i don't know how to rank these guys it's obviously too soon to judge burrow and kiler but baker i don't know nor what do you i don't know what do you think about this group so this is where i have my first bone to pick with you i don't think it's too soon to judge baker mayfield who is a pretty good quarterback that you can build a good team around if you supply him with the right resources. My question for you, if we take that and we say it is, it is not too soon to judge Baker Mayfield, we have enough of a sample size, we know who he is, what category does he then fall into? And I guess I'm spoiling some of your other categories, but there are- Let's not spoil

anything. Okay, okay, but I want you to circle back to that because I want to know how you see Mayfield if he's not too soon to judge. Well, I think my problem with Baker is that he's like this polarizing guy, right? He's grabbing his ball. against Kansas or whatever, and he's just yelling, and he's planting flags at the middle of the field and all, and he's, you know, just winning the highsman.

He's unbelievably. He's 5 foot 11 and pretends he's six feet and all this stuff. And you know what sucks? He's just polarized. He's a average quarterback, and I think it's the one thing nobody saw us going.

He's not elite. He's not bad. He's been kind of middling, which is kind of the worst case scenario for him. And I think that that's really disappointing. I wanted to have strong opinions on him. Three years in, I don't. what do you think, D.K.

Are you guys both rattled because I said he was grabbing his balls at midfield? I mean, I feel like, would have I supposed to say crotch? No, I was rattled because you said he's 5-11 and he pretends he's six foot. He said that. He said he stretched his spine at the combine. I'll be honest. I was rattled by balls. All right.

Sorry. Well, he did. I think in the scope of what we're doing here in terms of kind of grouping top picks all time or like in the last 20 years together. I think he makes sense in this group. But to Norris point, he might be worth jumping up a couple of tears once we get to it. But is Baker good? That's my question.

What do you think of three years in? What do you think of the Baker experience? I don't think he's great. I think he's a good starting quarterback. I think you want more from the top overall picking that. He's like, when I think of Baker Mayfield, I see like Larry David sort of shrugging and going like, oh, pretty good. The thing with Baker is he's not elevating the team to me.

Like the thing with Baker is that what you like about Deshawn, Russell Wilson. I mean, I don't want to compare anyone in Bahams, but the top tier quarterbacks are all, when the play breaks down, it's not just can you execute the play as called, and then it gets open and you go one, two, three reads, Kirk Cousins can do that.

The difference between Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson, other than apparently Russell Wilson wants to be an international celebrity and go to New York, is that when everything goes to shit, Russell Wilson just makes something happen and gets seven yards either. He runs out, he goes left,

he runs right, finds lock it, eight yards downfield. And instead of a throwaway or a sack, it's a game. and he wins when the defense had a better play call and that he out-executes them. Baker doesn't do that enough,

even though he did that what seemed like a lot in Oklahoma. The standard can't be, are you Russell, Wilson, Deshawn Watson, or Patrick Mahomes? If that's the standard, I have more votes to pick with me. What are we noticing as we go through these rankings? That's not what happens. They're not.

You're not getting Mahomes in these spots. Well, so let's go through the next tier, because I think it's related to this. The next tier I have here is disappointing quarterbacks. And this is illuminating. So at 13th, I got James Winston, Sam Bradford, Alex Smith, Jared Gough. Fascinating. Who do you guys want to take first here?

What did Alex Smith ever do to you? Is Alex Smith in this category if Aaron Rogers doesn't exist? You don't think he's disappointing? You don't think Alex Smith had a disappointing career as a number one pick? I don't think he's disappointing in the same way that these other guys are. I mean, yes, yes, he's disappointing as a number one. pick, but relative to the other guys that we're talking about, no, I don't, I don't think that he, I don't think that he had a, and again, I'm trying not to spoil your later categories, but I don't

think that he had a necessarily, like, markedly worse career than a lot. He could be in that ballpark. Alex Smith has like a 14 to 2 touchdown and interception ratio in the playoffs. He's made the playoffs like six times. He's a good quarterback. He also groomed Patrick Mahones. He did that groomed Patrick. out of here.

He was there. He was there. And then Andy Reed, get out of here. You're not picking a guy first to groom something. The next time you write about Andy Reed, I'm going to remind you that apparently he doesn't get any credit. Alex Smith is the one who gets credit for Patrick Williams. Alex Smith helped.

Also, if Aaron Rogers does not exist, we're not having this conversation right now. I bet you anything. That's fair. I just think Alex, I think Alex Smith is the most boring play. And I understand the whole comeback in the second part of his career. or whatever, fifth part, whatever part of this career is. But I don't know, I think generally speaking, he was the guy who didn't throw down field for whatever reason for a long time,

was immensely boring. And then it's also relevant that I think Kaepernick came in for that Niners team and was immediately made them a lot better. I think I, so I knew the Smith pick was going to be controversial. I will say, to me, he's never been a guy that is going to come in and elevate the team around him. He's a guy that needs to be surrounded by elite talent. and he can be a good player who can run the offense.

To me, that's, the definition of average. It's not enough for the first overall pick. I know that this, I know that the first, the history of first overall picks is not good necessarily or not great. But I do think, in the context of like a Trevor Lawrence,

like you're wanting that pick to be a franchise, transforming, you know, move. Or like he, future Hall of Famer, you want that first pick to be like a 10-time pro bowler. and I will say Alex Smith did have quite a few pro bowls on his reservation.

Not that pro bowls. Which is more pro bowls than some other quarterbacks that you like a lot better. He's a starter for 13 years. So I mean, there's definitely things that you could say. Fine. All right. So maybe he should be higher. I should not have Jared off of Alex Smith. Fine. Yeah, great. He's in chart.

He made Pat. Patrick Mahomes would be nobody for word for Alex Smith. That's the takeaway here. Alex Smith should actually be credited for all of Patrick Mahomes's win. The other, and Aaron Rogers, the only person I want to shout out here, James Winston, I just, just again, the first throw that James Winston had in the NFL was a pick six. And also his last throw for the buck was also a pick six, which is unbelievable.

He also, I've forgotten thing about his tenure. Obviously, interceptions and pick sixes defined his like, like, like his on field career there and like getting drafted. I also want to throw it. He also co-led the league in fumbles it while he was with Tampa Bay. Just like not just the picks. And then Sam Bradford, I also want to shout out made $130 million in 83 starts.

Because he was the last number one pick under the old CBA. That was when it didn't suck to go number one. That was when it didn't suck. Sam Bradford is the old Sam Darnold. What's what the name Sam? I feel like Bradford was the guy. Bradford was the guy that everyone thought as soon as he can get healthy

or as soon as he gets into a different system as soon as he blah blah blah he's going to be elite he has this elite you know skill set or whatever and he just never was elite he just never was that good so I think that that's maybe the road we're going down with with Darnell for whatever reason people and I'm probably part of this

like maybe mostly just because I have him on a couple of dynasty teams but I'm like Darnold he just needs to get into a good system man and he'll be good do you think Sam Bradford Nora this is a huge game we'd play on Ringer Fantasy football show Would Sam Bradford have been drafted number one

If his name was Alex Smith Wow Sam Bradford and Alex Smith are the same name Yeah The answer is yes, it changes nothing They're boring Would Baker Mayfield have gone number one If his name is Alex Smith?

No It's just too boring It's just like Baker Mayfield is a name Sam Bradford and Alex Smith are like collections of sounds that indicate that a white man is present. Alex Smith.

Yeah. It's even like the Key and Pell East West Bowl sketch. Like they end it with Dan Smith. There are six different Alex Smiths in my cell phone. I know a weird number of people named Alex Smith. And it is a problem routinely. So if you ever just accidentally called Alex Smith? Like, sorry, I wanted the other Alex Smith.

Oh, wow. All right. Oh, yeah. We haven't mentioned this guy with Jared Gough. Jared Goff has It's one of the worst Quarterback names in history, right? Jared Goff.

I think Jared Goff, the thing about me is that This is not what I should think of him, but I can't stop thinking. I always think about two things with Jared Goff. One is he runs like a newborn giraffe. Two, he did the Red Bull. No one's ever said that in a good way. Second one is they did this Red Bull promo. video for Jared Goff.

And they had him, like, claim to be like, I know, right? Yeah, exactly. It seems like Jared Goff drinks Red Bull, right? Oh, it was a joke. And then it's like he pretended to be a transfer to this like D3 college team in like Ventura or something. And he was really good.

And he's, you know, an NFL quarterback and they were all shocked. But like, they weren't that impressed with him. And I've never like been able to get that out of my head that he's like making those throws. And they were like, yeah,

he's, oh, he's good. They weren't like, whoa. It was just kind of like, they were like, oh shit, it's Jared Gough. But I'm like, this team is like 20 miles from like their headquarters. And I'm like, they didn't seem to be super impressed to be being around Jared Gough. Going back to the name thing, the problem with being named Jared Gough is that it's too close to goof. Yeah. Like you, it's better to be named Sam Bradford or Alex Smith where it's just you can't really do anything with it.

It's just sounds than anything that you can make into a mean nickname. I think you're right. Okay, let's move up a tier. We're at tier two. We're at tier two. So this is like, we're top 10 now. Top 10 topics of the last 20 years. Generational defensive end prospects.

This is a hell of a list. And honestly, probably bucketed these to be a little more organized because this is kind of out of order. But Jadavian Clowny at nine, Mario Williams at eight, Miles Garrett's at seven. I'm going to be off the top here. Obviously, Jadavion Clowny is not ahead of these, some of those quarterbacks. But going through the clowny stuff, like the members. memory lane for jadevian clownie is unreal the michigan hit is straight up the best college football

play i think i've ever seen yeah the guys helmet flies off the best part if you rewatch that play is that i forgot that john gruden is the announcer which is just absolute memory lane and then he has been did like this oral history of it grudin's like i thought the ball carry his head was in his helmet when it popped off his head fell off yeah what is what was your first initial reaction to hearing the word Mario Williams, the words Mario Williams. I straight up forgot he existed. What about you? Nora, do you remember Mario Williams existing? Yeah, I do. But I did the same. I was like, oh, yeah, cool.

People of another generation who is so pissed at us hearing that. He had 97s, 97th Saxon's career. And when we label this generational prospects, like, dude, he is a generational athlete. You know what I mean? He was just so much a different level. than anyone that he was playing for a long time. So we got a shout out, give respect to Mario Williams, even though none of us really have super in-depth things that we can say about him at this point.

If he was a second round pick, he'd be like, wow, what a value find. But he went first overall, so it's disappointing. But he had a really long NFL career. But Clowny, I think the crazy thing about Clowny, I'm curious what you think of this, Nora. There was like a whole debate over whether he should sit out a season of college football because he was so clearly the number one pick. and then he entered the NFL.

He never even had double-digit sax as an NFL player. Like, should we, no offense to Danny Kelly, why should we listen to anybody about anything of Chedavia and Clowny, who I think was the most lock any player's ever been as a prospect. Didn't whiff, but kind of whiffed. Clowny is such a weird, like, sort of under the radar, weird player, because it feels like he's, like, really good, but he's kind of underachieved,

and it's sort of about draft status. It's also sort of about a debate between like traditional counting stats and analytics because he doesn't actually finish sacks very often, but he gets a lot of pressure. He's also injuries. He's switched teams. He's had weird free agency stuff. Like there's always something going on with clowny. And there's such a Rorschach test where you can be like incredible athlete, like so much pressure, really productive for your defense. And you can also be like overrated.

Clown show, don't like it, not worth it. I do think one thing that's interesting for him is that his best seasons were when he was playing in more of a outside linebacker role, which is actually like, that is not really as valuable anymore. Like all these guys are defensive ends now, right? Like they're on the line, they're rushing the passer. He kind of straddled that moment when he was picked where things were, shifting, right? Like, there's a little bit less three, four, than used to be in the NFL. And I wonder

if he, he's just like such a tweener in 20 different ways. So he's a weird, weird, weird guy whose career to analyze. That's really interesting. He's a, he's an interesting one to me too, because, and this just tells you where the NFL is going and, and sort of like what's valuable in the NFL. He, he's legitimately one of the best run defenders of his generation. You know, he's so, so, he has like tons and tons of tackles for a loss. And, and, and, and, and, he's, and, And he's always in the backfield. And like you said, Norie, sometimes when he's at his best,

he's like lining up all over the formation. He's coming over, you know, the A gaps and rushing from the middle or whatever. He's moving around. But yeah, I think no one cares about that, really,

you know, that's great. Well, also, if he were entering the NFL this year, he might not be doing that. That might not be the priority because he might be looking at,

he'd be looking at football and going, the way for me to get paid, and to have an incredible career is I should learn how to pin my ears back and just go after that guy and not do all the flexibility stuff, not be off the line. It would, it's, I'm not going to say definitively it would be he would have a kind of different positional role, but it might be just a little bit subtly different. And I wonder if that has had some impact on him being this guy who is a little bit hard to define, even though he's obviously, he's had a good career. He's a really good player, but you combine the draft status, the hype, the Michigan video, like all of that,

it is a little perplexing in some. Stephen Ruiz, for the win, had a really good article that basically argue that his problem is he can't go outside. He has no bend. Like defensive, like basically there's two moves that every defensive end has, right? It's like power, like you force them back or finesse, you run around them or cut to the inside. And that's gross oversimplification, but that's basically what happens. And the way you cut around the outside is you go low, get your center of gravity lower than the left tackle and bend under and cut under their outside shoulder. And he can't do that.

All of his sacks last three years have come from like inside moves. He pretends to go outside, cuts back inside. And if they don't let him do that, he doesn't get to the quarterback straight up. Like he doesn't have the flexibility to get low to the ground, which is like what the Bosa's are really good at and what Von Miller was really good at. And I think it's, to Nora's point, I think it's a really good point that if he prepped for that more, but it's weird, right? Like, I don't want to compare him to LeBron or anything, but in terms of defensive players

getting hype two years out from the draft as like the number one, just doesn't happen. And I do wonder how that affects your development or just really how you prepare for football. But anyway, if he can miss, I think it's worth being humble about everything. Yeah. I think it's kind of interesting. that one legendary play and I'm picturing it in my head

that was a run play right like he just blew up a run play in the back he didn't do anything there's this hilarious video Taylor Luwan who's now the left tackle for the Titans has this podcast with Will Compton called Bustin with the Boys

and they had George Kittle on for an episode and they rewatched the play and they're like and Kittles like what happened Taylor and Wilcom's like yeah Taylor fucked that up and apparently he miscommunicated

with the tight end and he said to block one thing he just let him go like wait well he was like basically he told the tight end to block Judavian Clowny one and one. The tight end was like, fuck you

say. And then the Taylor was like, good luck. And then the title was like, I'm doing something else. And so they let the best college player, maybe in the history of defensive college football just go unblocked and destroy their running back and they lost the game. So top beat. Just like a rocket. The other thing that's worth rewatching that for is just

even before the play, Gruden is just a peak Gruden. He's saying just like weird cliches with so much enthusiasm. He's like, it's time to take a shot, right? Here, like, let's, I can't do grit. And he clearly doesn't watch college football. He clearly doesn't watch college football because he's like, yeah, man, that's your Dave

young clowning. I don't know where it comes in the high has been voting next year or this year, but like, I'd vote for him if I had a vote. And it's like, oh my God, dude. He's just, he's all vibes. And it's incredible. It's not quite as good as the Stephen A clip, but it's, it's also a lot of good television moments from years past in here.

We got to talk about Garrett, though. Okay, Miles Garrett. Yeah. I mean, good pick. I think when I was thinking about this list just from the very, very top level, I think Garrett has a chance to end up being the greatest top pick of the last 20 years.

Like the best all-round player. He's still very young, still very early in his career, and he's already a dominant defensive player, one of the best players in the NFL. I think he would have gotten defensive player of the year if he didn't get COVID. Yeah, if he keeps this trajectory up, I think he could end up being a, you know,

quote generational player like in the same vein as like a JJ Watt where he wins multiple defensive player of the year type award. So we'll see. This is way too early to say this, obviously. But I think if he follows this trajectory, he could end up being, we could talk about this in like six or seven years as he's

the best pick of that 20 year span. Best all around player works for me. I don't, the best number one pick has to be a quarterback. You should just only pick quarterback's number one. That's fair. That's fair. I actually agree with that. I agree with that too.

I do want to shout out, though, that Garrett is third in Sacks and Browns history. Like, he was drafted, like, four years ago. That's insane. Browns history is a good players in that team. Browns history is, like, fake because they just took, like, the Browns or the Ravens. And then the Browns were reincarnated and were like, yeah, we're that team. But the organizations are not the same at all. It's like the whole fact that the Browns pretend they're the Browns.

It's like, the Browns are new. The Ravens are the Browns. So they're like, like, the team just left. And I know that that's like, you're not supposed to talk about that. But anyway, the fact that the Browns have history before 1999 is always hilarious to me. Anyway, like no one really, I feel like it's forgotten that the team

that Belichick coached is the Ravens now. That's why the Ravens became a good organization. Like when they just magically became a new team. How did this new team make it to the Super Bowl? Because they're not a new team. This is an incredible take. I think that's a fantastic point. Nobody talks about this stuff.

There's a weird thing that used to happen. No, it's truly undiscussed. The last time the Browns were in the playoffs, Bill Belichick beat the Patriots. No, this is a completely different group of people with different ownership and different structures. None of those people work for this team. Never did, never will.

It's like, I don't know, it's like a Soviet Russia style retelling of history. There used to be this thing that would happen with Tom Brady where just every single, it could be the most boring regular season Patriots game, but afterwards, the, you know, poor PR people would have to print out these just like stacks of, oh, Tom Brady extended this record and this record and like,

oh, sorry, Warren Moon. Like, Tom Brady's got that one too now. And no one would ever look at it because it was just like, yeah, like, sure. Half of these are his own records that he's just breaking over and over and over again. Brown's history is the opposite of that. Yeah, there's no paper. Okay. Let's get to the top tier here.

And basically I just, there's franchise quarterbacks, which theoretically, if you have the number one pick in the draft, this is what you're doing. you're getting a franchise quarterback. I think the amazing thing about this list is it's, I mean, I'll just go through it. I put here, I didn't put Alex Smith here, and that's really the choice, right? Is Alex Smith the franchise quarterback?

Sure, in the meekest possible definition, sure. Baker I didn't put here either. So this is the list I have franchise quarterbacks. Matt Stafford, Carson Palmer, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Michael Vic, and the person who I put and shred me for this. as the number one draft pick of like last one, I put Eli Manning.

And I know I'm Giants fan. It's an insane Homer fan. It's insane Homer move. And I actually, here's the thing. Eli Manning won two Super Bowls. The rest of this list combined has won. God. Wow.

Yeah. Eli Manning's the best number one pick of the last 20 years. I understand why Super Bowls are such a huge part of quarterback's legacies. but like if you are making, if you're starting from scratch, you want to start a franchise, you're a head coach or a GM or whatever, and you're starting a team

and you have the six guys on this list, who you, you're not taking Eli for, I would argue might take Eli last. You take Eli last out of the six players. So that's where I come in and I'm like, this is completely absurd. If you're looking back at their careers,

I get it. If you're looking at like, who would I take if these guys were all coming to Liga's rookie. Eli Manning would literally be the last on this list. So I don't know. I just think it's funny. Who would you take first?

Who would you take? Yeah, who would you take? I think it comes, for me, it comes down to, oh man, that's so tough. I mean, because the thing that you have to, the thing that slows me up from making immediate choices, like, what do we, do we know Andrew Luck is going to, like, retire in his prime?

So, like, maybe that would be a thing. I think I would say it comes down to Cam Newton and Vic for me. I don't know. I mean, obviously they're better players than Eli Manning. I'm not arguing that. Nor, I think Cam versus Vic is pretty interesting. Because I think, so Vic, Vic is this interesting player because he comes in and they try to,

I mean, if Vic came into the NFL now, they would never try to put him in the offense they did with the Falcons, this kind of boring West Coast thing and just try to make him like the 49ers again. I think that the comparisons, like Lamar was in some ways inspired by Vic. And obviously, you know, the two quarterbacks ran for more. than a thousand yards, but the NFL very much tried to put a square peg into a round hole. And obviously a lot of that's about black quarterbacks and the role of like trying,

of not really believing players could just have different skill sets and all these things and everything that comes with that. But the Vic Falcons were fun because of him breaking structure. But imagine if they'd built a structure where he didn't have to break the freaking structure all the time. And they built the entire offense around this like, I mean, generational skill set in the true sense of the word. I mean, you could pretty easily argue that he would have been number one in this list. Norah, who do you, who would you say is the greatest, like of this tier?

Do you, well, first of all, do you disagree with Eli Manning, like I do? I don't, actually. I think you take, the point of playing football is to win Super Bowls. I think you take a quarterback and you take the one who won the most Super Bowl's. I think that is a little bit of a frustrating answer, but I think it's right. If I were doing your thing, and so luck is the obvious choice to start a franchise if you don't know that he's going to retire. If you do, I'm probably, I don't know if this is sort of recency bias just because I saw the best years of his career more closely. But I would probably take Newton before Vic. I would too much.

But I would take luck if I didn't know what was going to happen if I were just a gullible, a gullible cube. So here's my question for you guys. I'll start with Nora. the point of football is to win Super Bowls. We just went through the top 20 number one picks. And again, the stat that blows my mind. Eli Manning won two Super Bowls.

Eric Fisher, a left tackle, won one. No one else on this list has won a Super Bowl. Yeah. Why? Is that, is it, why? So, a couple of reasons. One, the thing that's crazy about football and very cool, but also annoying sometimes,

there's just so many people on the teams, right? Like too many variables. There's just too much going on. Yeah. It makes it really, really hard to figure out. Also, the NFL is a league designed for parody above all else, basically. But really what they've succeeded in doing, and that's the salary cap, that's the draft order, that's all kinds of rules.

They've succeeded in creating a middle group of, I don't know, let's call it, 25 teams, maybe a couple more, who year to year. there can be just a ton of movement. You can get way better. You can get way worse. The really, really, really bad teams have trouble pulling themselves out of those spots. Like, think about, I mean, we're just talking about the Browns. Like, hopelessness can be eternal.

You can also have the Patriots. You can also have maybe what we're going to see with the Chiefs. Who knows? But when you are that bad, it is really hard to get better. And I think that, I mean, there's just a lot of these guys just didn't. weren't in positions to succeed, and some of that's because of them. But I was half kidding when I said it sucks to go number one overall. There are some real downsides to it.

I do think that's a great point. The like getting mired in just mediocrity or just being bad forever is like a thing. You have to get yourself out of it. It's very difficult to do. The other thing that I think that is interesting here is just generally, it's hard to make the Super Bowl ever. in your career, like make the Super Bowl. You know, a lot of players go their entire career of one Super Bowl or no Super Bowls,

and it's like, you know, the thing. Aaron Rogers. Yeah, these are great players. And they just can't, because there's so many freaking variables that are into, into, like, getting there that, you know, it's just, that's just hard in general. So that's another thing to keep in mind here.

Speaking of which, if Matthew Stafford, who is at the bottom of this tier one franchise quarterbacks list, if Matthew Stafford and the Rams make a Super Bowl, don't necessarily win, but they make it there. Where does he, does he move up? How many slots does he move up? Oh, that's an interesting question.

So I have Stafford and Palmer, and I think that you could argue, the thing I was debating was do I create a tier below this for like Stafford, Carson Palmer, and Alex Smith, for guys that went to bad teams? Because Carson Palmer and at Stafford, the Bengals and the Lions are kind of similar and that the Bengals, I think for the late 90s and early aughts

were the worst team in the NFL. And then the Lions took that over around 04, 05. And I'm sorry about big cats, I guess just doesn't work over here. And really just owners that are pretty incompetent. I mean, Carson Palmer made this, like last year, pretty unprecedented thing to just basically say the Bengals didn't really want to win a Super Bowl. Players say all kinds of stuff about former employers. You never hear players say they're not trying to win. Like, you don't hear that. So Carson, I mean, the Bengals are a different level and I wonder what would happen to Carson Palmer. I wonder

if Stafford can reinvent his career in a similar way that Carson Palmer kind of did when he ended up getting into Cardinals. Yeah. He was too old, but they almost went to his Super Bowl. Obviously, Kurt Warner had a similar thing. And like, obviously, the beginning of his career was good, but there's a late Renaissance. I would love to see Stafford get that late Renaissance. I think it'd be really fun. And all, but you don't really get the credit for taking a team from like the absolute muck, like literal laughing stock to mediocrity, which is what Stafford did. It might be harder. Right.

It's like, you know, none of the glory, but like, you know, he's like a local legend. But so the other person I want to throw out here, luck. First, there's two things that stand out to me about luck. Number one, after all that, like, you know, Peyton Manning gets his neck injury. He's out for the year. They go, you know, that awful season with like Curtis Painter. They get Andrew Luck. It's this crazy situation, Far of Rogers, but like, you know in real time.

Curtis Painter. I forgot about Curtis Painter. Andrew Luck played one season in the NFL longer, essentially, than Peyton Manning did. I find that astounding. And I guess to bring this all home, my question for you two, Trevor Lawrence, we said at the beginning of this pod that the Mount Rushmore quarterback prospects is John Elway, Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, Trevor Lawrence. But I'm just thinking, we just talked about Judeavian clowning, probably the best defensive end prospect, defensive prospect last 20 years, maybe prospect period. Andrew Luck ended up playing like six years, seven years, whatever. How does Trevor Lawrence even live up to the hype when we're just looked at the last 20 number one picks

and we're basically saying two defied expectations, three lived up to it? How does Lawrence live up to this, Nora? So the reality is he probably doesn't. Right. Because what makes Trevor Lawrence the generational prospect that he is, it really, and Danny Kelly, you can chime in on this because you are a better draft guru than I am certainly. But Lawrence has a really high floor.

And when people think about top draft prospects, they are always thinking about the ceiling. And that's actually not it. You can trust that Trevor Lawrence has a really good chance to come into the NFL and even in a less than ideal situation in Jacksonville, make that team better, not be a weight on the other players that they're trying to develop around him, and stabilize the thing, right?

And if that goes well and he gets continuously better, then they have a chance. at a long run of being a good team. And if a bunch of other things go right, then they can win a bunch of games and win playoff games and be awesome. But there are a lot of steps that it takes to get there. And we got onto this because we were talking about Andrew Luck.

A great example of how variable all this stuff is, is that 2012 class of quarterbacks. Because the order is Luck, RG3, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Whedon, Brock Osweiler, now we're in the third round, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles,

Kirk Cousins. Oh my God. Then later on, Ryan Lindley, BJ Coleman. What a weird. Weird. Yeah.

That is actually, I haven't thought about that in a long time. That's a very interesting point. It's a really fascinating quarterback class. And it's also really fascinating right now. versus a couple years ago,

you could have taken that list and said, flip it. Like, just flip it. Yeah. But, okay, we think differently about, we think differently about luck. We definitely think differently about Tanna Hill. We think certainly differently about Nick Foles.

And probably the same ish about Kirk Cousins. but it's not just that. Poor Kirk. Poor Kirk. Kurt. Kurt. Kurt. Is it Kurt or Kirk?

I can't remember. Kirk. Kirk. Kurt. You know what? Not bad for a fourth round pick. Okay? Not.

Shelly. But this stuff changes. Even within the lifespan of these quarterbacks, once we've already made up our minds about what kinds of NFL players they're going to be. So. It's a little crazy that we expect this certainty of, oh, no, Trevor Lawrence is going to be a multiple Super Bowl winning first team all pro type quarterback when really what they're looking at is this is this sport with just an immense number of variables. And he's the guy who gives the team the best chance to just reach stability and competency and good quarterback play. Right.

Which is so, so, so, so valuable. It is worth the number one overall pick. but it's just people, you go number one, people are thinking about trophies and confetti. And fair is not the point of any of this, but it's, it's just a, it's a different thing. But it is now so much less harmful to miss on those guys than it used to be because he's going to make the same amount of money as like Marcus Mariotto. Salary. Yeah. I think so it's actually, as we've gone through this entire list, I think it's a so, fascinating because of any player on this list, I feel like Andrew Luck is the best and most recent at least sort of proxy for the hype that is around Lawrence. And he's, and Luck is honestly

a cautionary tale. You know, he had a good career when he was here. It's crazy. High Fitz, when you said he only played six years, I was like, that's not right. That can't be right. And it is. Like, I almost didn't even realize that that's a short career. I mean, for a first overall pick who had that kind of hype. Now, you know, he chose to leave the game. It's not like he washed out. But I think he is ultimately a cautionary tale to be like, hey, you know, not only should we probably temper our expectations a little bit for what Trevor Lawrence is going to do.

But, yeah, like luck was a very good player in his career. And he, it's not like he turned the Colts into this powerhouse, you know, multiple Super Bowl winning team. They were a good team under him. And that's it. The other point I wanted to talk about. I thought was kind of fascinating is, and it's going back a little bit to the point where you're saying, like,

there's no Super Bowl winners other than Eli Manning on this list. Like, there's two guys on this list. Literally, the Buccaneers won a, they won a Super Bowl as soon as they got rid of James Winston. It wasn't like, he didn't bring them Super Bowl. They won a Super Bowl literally as soon as they got rid of them. So I just thought that was going to do. And the Niners made a Super Bowl

with Kaepernick taking over. Although, to be fair, Jared Goff lost the Super Bowl. So he did make one. I love the implication. I love the implication that Jason Light won executive of the year for an offseason defined, not by acquiring Tom Brady, but getting rid of James Winston. Yes, exactly. And then I guess I think that Nora hit what I was thinking on the head in that I think

that this list to me illustrates the dangers of associating team success and quarterback success. And the reality is there are certain, like, individual awards. I think it's interesting. We started the show talking about Russell Wilson, wanting more individual accolades to be more like Tom Brady. But Tom Brady's legend is built off of team success. Tom Brady doesn't talk about himself. Tom Brady talks about team success, team goals. And I think Brady's magic, as he understands, it takes everybody on the team.

There's reasons he's talking about, like, you know, Mickens and like these low end wide receivers and that. Mickin. Nora, is part of the reason that these expectations are impossible to reach is because we're basically asking one dude on a 53-person team to deliver a Super Bowl. Yeah. Totally. Look at what a lot of the busts have in common or busts or weird stuff happens, right?

Like, now, Andrew Luck is a different sort of cat. There's a lot of factors that went into him deciding to walk away. But he also got hit way too much. And part of that is his own doing. We have this conversation. It is not purely on the offensive line. But he was taking a beating and it took a toll on him. him. We get back to the car conversation.

We also talk about what Trevor Lawrence would need to succeed in Jacksonville. And a lot of that is give him time. It's the same thing. Russell Wilson's mad that he's getting hit too much. And it's probably coincidental that the other Super Bowl winning number one pick is an offensive lineman on this list. But there are fundamental truths about what a quarterback needs to succeed. And that is also a lesson from this exercise. right is like you just you can't just get the guy and throw him out there and say figure it out protection is is just critical look at burrow yeah and to be clear it's not just super bowls

there's only four people at the 20 who made first team all pro and none of them made it multiple times it's just really hard to play football and you need a whole team around you so dk button this all up you're the draft guru you have your draft guide available at nfldraftdrainger dot com what does Trevor Lawrence need to do to make good on the hype is number one like does he have to win multiple Super Bowls to live up to the hype? Is that what you're asking? I don't know. What is he enough to do?

I think, yeah, I do actually think. Ultimately, at the end of the day, what isn't enough? I think at the end of the day, he needs to win a Super Bowl to meet, meet the hype, which is totally unfair to him. But I think that's at the end of the day what it's going to be. If he wins multiple Super Bowls, then he will have outdone himself, which is, you know, it's certainly possible.

All right. So I think that to wrap this up, I think Norris, Right, going number one sucks. I think that that is the theme of this episode. I think it's correct. All right. Thank you. This is the first episode of the big board.

You can check out us. We'll be here every Friday on the Ringer NFL show feed. Also, Danny Kelly and I will be on the Ringer fantasy football show with Craig Krollback on Wednesdays. You can check that out. That link should be in the description for this episode. Nora, what's your schedule? I will be on this very feed with our illustrious colleague, Kevin Clark, doing all sorts of fun

offseason NFL stuff. We're going to be bringing that to you guys on Tuesday. and I'm just so psyched that here in our whole ringer NFL show, fam, we're getting all this big board goodness. So just great news for the listeners, great news for all of us. You're our number one pick, Nora, but it takes a whole team.

Guys. Wow. That's touching. All right. Thank you, Nora. Thank you, T.K. Yeah, don't fuck it up. That's good.

All right. Thank you ever for listening. We will see you guys next Friday.