The Ringer NFL Show - Ranking the Top 10 Offenses Heading Into the 2024-25 Season

Episode Date: August 13, 2024

Sheil and Diante get together to share, debate, and speculate on their ranked list of the best offenses around the NFL as the league prepares to begin another exciting season. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Hosts: Sheil Kapadia and Diante Lee Producer: Chris Sutton Production Supervision: Conor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgopal Social: Kiera Givens and Eduardo Ocampo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Follow Ringer reality TV on Spotify and subscribe to us on YouTube. Welcome to the Ringer NFL show, Shield Khabati here with Deontay Lee. We've got a fun on. I like doing this one every summer, our top 10 offenses for the 2024 season. You should know by now that we're not going to share that information before the pod. We're going to react to each other and see if we agree, if we disagree, we'll find out about all of that. Deontay, what do you think? out of the 10, what's the, I'm going to set the over under at six and a half that we agree on.

What do you think? Are you going over or under? You know, I'm going to test myself here and say that I've listened to enough Shioca Patti and podcasting to say that we'll be over on similar teams. When I was looking at some of the reasons why I like the teams that I like, I want to say that we'll probably align more likely than not. Okay. See, I've become too predictable. All right. It's a note for 2024. I got to shake it up. I got to come out and name some teams that no one would expect. All right, I think we go, we start at 10, right? That's the good way to go. We build up. Why don't you go ahead and start with 10? And then if you name one that I've got somewhere in there, I'll tell you where they're

ranked. So Deontay leads us off. The number 10 offense in the NFL this season will be. The Dallas Cowboys, which feels so funny for me because I feel like we spent so much time in national media kind of talking about everything that's wrong with this team. They haven't paid this guy. They're not paying that guy. What are they doing with building up the depth in the roster? Is this really a contending roster? And then I look and I'm like at the end of the day, they have the elements of what makes for a top 10 offense. I think despite losing a little bit of talent up front, I do like the young guys they have on the offensive line. They still have Tyler Schmidt. You know, I do like Tyler Guyton. So I do feel like I can trust them to keep

Dak Prescott upright. And that's the other guy that really makes this kind of a no-brainer for me. As long as they've got DAC, they've got a strong offensive line and they have CD Lamb, I think that the ingredients are there for being top 10, even if it's maybe not as inspiring a pick to make right now based on the vibes and based on the fact that I think everybody kind of knows what Mike McCarthy's offenses and what their style of play is going to be. I still feel pretty good. It'll be a top 10 unit this year. I'm glad you have them in there. I left them just out. I have two teams that I really, I was basically debating between three teams for that number 10 spot. And I ended up leaving the Cowboys out.

But I had the same thought process you did because I've been just ripping the Cowboys and Jerry Jones. All offseason people who listen to the show are probably sick of it. I think it's warranted. But then at the end of the day, I'm like, if you just look at it historically, Dak Prescott, healthy Dak Prescott, you're probably going to have a top 10 offense. I could tell you nothing else about who the coach is, who the offensive line is, who the wide receivers are. And so I thought, am I overthinking this? And so the reason I ended up leaving them out, so they were ninth last year.

I mean, it depends what metric you look at. I was looking at DVOA. They were ninth last year. And a couple things, Deonti, they had going their way. One is they had the fifth best injury luck of any offense. If you look at that adjusted games loss stat that's now on, I think, FTN. And then they had the eighth best turnover luck when you look at just expected points at it. So I thought, all right, if they were ninth last year, if the offensive line just takes a little

step back, if maybe they don't get quite as lucky with the injuries and the turnover. Again, I still have them at like 11, so it's not, you know, 11 or 12. So it's not that far off. But I thought, all right, that's how I convinced myself in my head, then maybe they won't be a top 10 offense. So the thing to me, the question to really keep an eye on is, what is this offense going to look like if they're not just ripping explosive plays in the passing game the way the deck Prescott was, you know, at his peak in that kind of mid-season range, you know, in November where it really looked like he might be a legitimate MVP type of candidate. And I think you have to look at the run

game. One, the fact that Ezekiel Elliott is a lead back here, that alone really makes me concern, you know, about what this run game is going to look like. I'm not exactly sure how they plan on just staying on schedule on early downs outside of just asking Dak Prescott to make magic, right? And to your point that that makes them more vulnerable up front, right? Because if defenses are really able to pin their ears back and get after the quarterback, because they don't have to be as concerned about the run game, they don't have to be as concerned with RPO's and things like that, because you don't have to honor what's happening in the box, that can very quickly turn into an offense that has all the pieces of a top 10 unit, but maybe not the game flow necessary. And to your point,

with injury luck, with turnover luck, any kind of data regression that we usually see in those types with statistics probably lands them closer to 13, 14 this year, which is still good. And this is probably a team that I would have on the fringe. My coin flip just happened to land on them being a top 10 unit this year. Yeah, they feel high floor, but not as high ceiling as some of the past versions of this Cowboys offense. We've seen, okay, so that's interesting. So we don't agree on one.

So now I'm interested to see if my number 10, this might be the team you left out. And I'm going with the Baltimore Ravens. This is going to be interesting there because they're on my list. They're on your list, okay, but not at 10. So they were a team that I was going back and forth. And I almost had the same thought process we just mentioned with Dak Prescott. I mean, if Lamar Jackson's healthy, the floor of your offense is high. He's been healthy.

This is crazy. He's been healthy for three seasons. He's one MVP in two of the three seasons. He's played 15 games. So it's like, those are pretty good odds. And even the other season, you know, they were 11th, I think, in offensive efficiency there. So the run game is going to be awesome with Lamar Jackson. We know that you added Derek Henry.

No questions about that. That's going to be top five. And in the passing game, you can easily talk yourself into, hey, second season under Todd Monkin did a good job last year. Now he's got more reps at what he was doing last season. And the thing about Lamar Jackson is we've seen him when the circumstances are not good, when the passing game is not schemed up well. And he doesn't have people to throw to.

Still kind of finds a way to make it work. Anyway, so I think the floor is very high. So here's the reason why I had them at 10 Deontes. I look at that offensive line. And I don't know if this was a theme for you, but as I was going through this, in the past, I would put more stock and I would say, I can't have this team in the top 10 because of their offensive line. But some of these quarterbacks and some of these coaches and offensive coordinators and play callers are doing such a good job of scheming around the lack of talent on the offensive line that I almost felt like I had to rethink

my thought process. And so this offensive line, they lost three starters from last season. The two starters that they kept, one of them left tackle Ronnie Stanley, who's played in 31 games the past four seasons. The other is Senator Tyler Linderbaum, who's a great player, but he's already dealing with an injury in training camp. And so I was like, I should probably give him the benefit of the doubt and maybe even have them higher because you kind of trust the Ravens organization. They've taken a bunch of dart throws and some of those offensive linemen will probably hit. And then another team will sign them next off season for more money when the Ravens got them for cheap. But because of some of those O-line concerns, I looked at the teams in front of them and I said,

I think I'm going to have them back here at 10. So where do you have the Ravens coming in? So they're at seven. So it's not like I have it as a top three unit. And my concern is the same as yours, right? And this is an organization that has done really well with finding cheap guys to play offensive line and just kind of patching, patch working their way to having something functional. But I look now and it's like, is Daniel Falulele? who they've drafted kind of as a project and they've still been kind of trying to find, where is he going to land? Is he a tackle?

Is he a guard? I think he'll be playing on the interior this year. You have Ronnie Stanley, who you noted in terms of availability is always a question year in and year out. And we've gone, you know, similar to Ron Armstead in Miami. It's one of those things like when he's healthy and he's active, yeah, still one of the better tackles in the NFL. But the issue is that he's just not active enough to be continued to be held in that

conversation, right? So he's got to be there, especially when you can. consider that as Andrew Warhees, probably playing next to him at guard, a guy that missed his entire rookie season after tearing up his knee at the combine, if I remember right, I had Daniel Folle, which I mentioned, and then Roger Rosengarten, who they drafted to play right tackle, and that's a guy who, while I like his athletic profile, is pretty light, not a big body mover, not exactly in that kind of mold of Ravens' offensive line that we've seen work really well with Samar, right? And that's not to say that maybe a different style, well, it's more zone

blocking and things like that can't work. It's just not necessarily something that we can go in our mind's eye and see like, okay, we have all of this different reference material over the last four or five years in Lamar's career that you can put an offensive line like this together and still get good results. If I'm going to bank on them being successful, it's just that they're going to use Lamar as a design runner more, which automatically just raises that floor so high. And I think that despite them not having a ball winner, which is more of a postseason concern for them, I think they have a good balance of wide receiver talent, especially if Mark Andrews is available to get the ball out of Lamar Jackson's hands quickly,

which is what they need to do behind this offensive line and keep them on schedule. So I think they're another team where it's one of those things where I think the margins are super thin for this team. If Lamar twists an ankle, they're probably in trouble. If Tyler Lindybaum gets hurt, Ronis Stanley has missed time, they're probably going to be in trouble again. But I think that if guys are healthy, if they can just keep their best players on the field and Lamar Jackson is able to use his legs the way that we know he can, it's going to be

difficult for this team not to be a top 10 offense just on that merit alone. Yeah, it's a good way to look at quarterbacks. Like who can compensate for shortcomings elsewhere on the roster? You know, if you just kind of put guys in a bucket, can they do that? Have they done that? Do they have a track record? I mean, he's done that at a very high level. I'll tell you, a week one, when we're sitting in when they're lining up on offense, I want to see that first series with Lamar and Derek Henry next to him. I mean, that, I don't know. Like if you're asking me, Hey, Shield, should they have spent that money on Derek Henry instead of just offensive line depth? That might have a conversation.

But the fan and me, yes, I wanted to see it and we get to see it. So who cares? They should do a give me an ode to Greg Roman and put Isaac likely in Mark Andrews on the field with Pat Ricard and Derek Henry in the back field. Like, I want as many big human beings on the field as possible for that first snap. Yeah, that has real potential. And what you talked about with the past catchers, like, you know, I look at their group and it's not the best group, but that I'm like, well,

Well, he didn't have anyone like, say flowers previously in his career and it still worked. So I'm not going to go overboard with that. All right. So I had him at 10. You have them at 7. So we have them in a similar range. All right. Give me your number nine offense.

What do you got? Oh, this is one. I feel like I got to say the name and just duck because I know nobody ever wants to hear it. But it's Kansas City. I have them at ninth here. Oh, yes. To me, this is more just about like, I think that we all have to face effect that Travis Kelsey is on kind of a pitch limit in the race.

regular season. I think we saw that his targets as an isolated receiver were way down, right? You didn't see him isolated as often and when they did have him isolated on the outside, which is what this offense likes to do when it's at its best. They weren't targeting him a bunch. I like the addition of speed that they brought in with Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown, but we're still in the same situation, right? We don't necessarily have a game-breaking player like Tyree Kill was in this offense. And we saw last year when they really weren't able to run the ball as effectively throughout the season the way that they were two seasons ago when they beat the Eagles at the Super Bowl, it puts a lot of stress on Patrick Mahomes. Now, obviously, we're talking about

maybe the best quarterback who's ever lived. So I don't want to oversell how concerned I am about this whole thing. But when I think about top 10 offenses and when we get to some of the other teams down the list, we're going to be talking about all pro-wide receiver or all pro running back or multiple pro-ball talents on the offensive line. And I think that the interior of this old line is good. And you have the quarterback and you have Andy Reed, which is why I would never have them lower than ninth on a list like this. I just don't see enough around Patrick Mahomes throughout the course of the regular season to rank them higher in the kind of metrics that would make me see them as a top 10 offense, even though I think they'll be pretty stable all year

long. You know, Deonti, this is, I'm going to be writing a piece for the Ringer ranking all 32 offenses. So I like this exercise because that's, I don't know when that's going up, but I'm like, I can bounce my top 10 off Deonti. And if he's like, Shil, you are a more, what are you talking about? then I can be like, all right, before this goes, publishes on a website that everyone can read, I can make some adjustments. And so I'm doing my list. And I have the Kansas City cheese in a certain spot. And I go, oh, man, Deiante's probably going to crush me for this one.

Deante's got them lower than I even have. I have them at seventh, though. So we may be the only podcast in America in the world doing this exercise where both The hos have the Kansas City cheese outside their top five. I don't think we're nuts, Deontay. I think we are reasonable people who are looking at this in a reasonable way. And I agree with what you said. I mean, they were eighth.

Let's be clear. They were eighth in DVOA last year. So we've got them in a similar range to last year. Basically, we're both saying we don't see a huge difference in this year's offense compared to last year's offense. And honestly, I think that's the right take. You know, I'm looking at it. Markies Brown, you mentioned it.

He's dealing with a shoulder injury. That's like fine. I thought they got good value signing him. He's not going to be a difference maker in their past game. Xavier Worthy, I mean, first round picks are generally get you on average, about 600 yards, meaning half of them are getting you fewer than that. He's 165 pounds. I hope he's Deshawn Jackson.

You and I both loved watching Deshawn Jackson back in the day. That would be a lot of fun to see Patrick Mahomes throwing bombs to him. But is that the most likely scenario? Come on, as a rookie, no. Of course, that's not the most likely scenario. You mentioned it with Kelsey, Rashid Rice. We don't know. It's a suspension coming.

Offensive tackle. They're probably starting a rookie in Kingsley, Sue Mattaia. So I just see like the same question marks. I mean, I came out of that Super Bowl, Deonté, being like, Patrick Mahomes is never going to have to play with a supporting cast that's, I don't want to say bad, but like, yeah, that, you know, is as weak as this supporting cast, and now we're a month away from week one, and I'm going, wait a minute, this looks much similar. So they were a great team, team last year. They were a great team.

They were not necessarily, like they were a very good offense, but every other year, Mahomes has been in the league. They've been top three in offensive efficiency, and I just don't think the talent with this group stacks up to the talent they've had in the past. Again, there's randomness here. If Xavier Worthy comes in and it's awesome, we're going to be looking stupid and Chiefs fans, you can yell at us if that's the case, but we're looking at most likely scenarios here and the most likely scenario is he's not going to come in and just kind of, you know, light the league on fire as a rookie. So that was fun. That was excited. I didn't know who you were going to say. You know, I thought you were going to say a team that like I would never expect to be in the top 10

when you said you were going to duck. So great job setting me up where I'm like, oh, the Chiefs, Yes, slower than I have them. So we're on the same page there. All right. My number nine is a team that I'm going to say, I think you have them in the top 10, but I'm not positive. And that's the Buffalo Bills. You got the Buffalo Bills on your list or no? The Bills were 11th for me.

11th, okay. So there you go. So we kind of swapped bills and Cowboys in a way because I've got them ninth here. And the bills were a tough exercise. I see, I don't blame you for having them out of the top 10. I was basically looking at it, kind of like I mentioned with Lamar Jackson, that if your quarterback's at a certain level, you can give me an average player at the other 10 spots, and I'm still getting a top 10 offense.

I think that's obviously the case with Mohams. And that's what I see with Josh Allen. I mean, they've been top 10 in the last four seasons. They've been top five in three of those seasons last year where it just felt like this Bill's team, it's so up and down. Oh, my God, it's a bumpy ride. They finished third. third and offensive DVOA last year.

So the concerns are obvious. I mean, everyone knows them. If you're listening to this, you know what we're going to say. I mean, you let go of Stefan, you trade Stefan Diggs, you let Gabe Davis walk. You're going into the season with Dalton Kincaid, with James Cook, with Khalil Shakir, with Kiann Coleman. Some guys I like in there, but obviously a lot of unknowns in there. And so that's why I dropped them, you know, out of the top five and down all the way to nine.

And then the other thing, Deonté, is they're all. offensive line was so healthy last year. I just saw this. I think it was on Sumer Sports. Their starting offensive line played 97% of the snaps last year. Like, that doesn't happen. That just doesn't happen. It doesn't happen. It doesn't happen. It's such an outlier. Yeah, especially five offensive linemen for them to do that. So it's like your depth is probably going to get tested more up front. Your past catching group isn't as good. And yet, I feel like with Josh Allen, I can't keep them out of the top 10. So I kept them in there, but I've got the Buffalo Bills at number nine.

The funny thing about it, right, is that if we fast forwarded to December and this team was fourth and offensive EPA and a DVLA, I'll be like, oh, I know exactly what happened. Josh Allen went nuclear. And it made it all work. Yeah. Yeah, despite how I might feel about the supporting cast and whether or not this offensive line is going to stay upright all year, they've got the kind of quarterback that can throw this whole thing on his shoulders with his legs, you know, through the air. air and make it work. I do think that they have a more dynamic wide receiver group or just pass catching group in general compared to other years. Obviously, you lose Stefan Diggs, which was their one-on-one playmaker type. But by the end, and I think this was a big reason why he kind of fell

in a pecking order with his offense is that they were really just using him as a field stretcher, right, and not so much as a guy that was going to be working underneath a bunch. And I think that now having Khalil Shakir to do a little bit more of that, Curtis Sam, I'm going to do a little bit more that maybe use Keon Coleman as a jumpball type of guy. I kind of like the combination of body types, skill types that they have from tight end to all three receivers that they'll have on the field. It's just to me, the thing I guess I kept getting hung up on was, is there enough there? For all I think of Dalton Kincaid and what he can be as a tight end, I don't know if he's

a lead target getter, right? Or if he is leading your team in targets, are you getting more from Dalton Kincaid to Jacksonville got from Evan Ingram? as their lead target guy if it ends up working out that way. And then there are guys I just have to see it with. Khalil Shakir, you know, everything projects well for a guy as explosive as he is, somebody who can create after the catch, dynamic with the ball in his hands, can go get open deep down the field.

But we haven't really seen him in a role where he might be drawing more defensive attention, right? So that's something I'm really fascinated by. And then we've got to see Keon Coleman hit the ground sprinting, right? There's really not going to be much time for him to be on a learning curve. They're going to need him to be able to line up on the perimeter and go win against one-on-one coverage to get the best version of this passing offense here. And I think that if that happens, then yeah, they obviously could be a top 10 offense based on what they have around Josh Allen. But I do have some questions about whether or not we'll see that early.

Maybe they kind of get rolling in November and December and that changes the conversation. But I'm definitely going to have a keen eye on them to see just how quickly these young guys and these guys who are stepping into bigger roles are able to adjust to what's being asked of them. Yeah, what we just said about Xavier Worthy applies to, you know, Keon Coleman. You know, not a complete unknown, but you can't just put a rookie in there and say, you've solved your problem. I feel like that happens a lot this time of year. And then you get to week six. And it's like, that guy hasn't done anything because it's hard.

It's not their fault. It's hard to go from college to the NFL there. So I went into this exercise and I thought I was going to have the bills even higher. I'm going to be like, oh, man, I'm higher on the bills than everyone else. But then I just kept looking at the talent on some of the teams in front. of them and I'm like, I don't think I can have them any higher than ninth here. All right, take a break. We come back. Deante hits us with his number eight offense. With Fandul, you can get in on NFL action before the season even starts. There's tons of great futures markets already

available on the app like Super Bowl winner, season leaders and player props, win totals, and so much more. FanDuel is the number one sportsbook app to use to bet on the NFL. It's a easier to navigate than the other sportsbook apps. There are fast bet settlements. You can withdraw instantly and you can find and lock in live bets extremely fast. You know, I'm still debating on my Super Bowl picks, but if you're listening to the Ring or NFL show, you know, there are some players and some teams I like. I'll mention one. Jordan Love, I'll mention another. Joe Burrow, you have to listen to the episodes to get the rest of my takes, but you can visit Fandul.com slash ringer NFL to download America's number one sports book.

Must be 21 plus and present in select states. Gambling problem. Call 1-800 gambler or visit RG-Help.com. All right. We're back on the Ringer NFL show. So so far we disagreed on the Bills and the Cowboys. Number 8, Deontay, what do you got? This is the team that I've liked throughout the all-the-all season,

going back to the second half of the year and watching film. Everything looks great. And I think that they're in a tight cluster with some other teams. But Green Bay is who I have as my eighth team. And I think that you could really argue, I think, everybody from eight to four in my rankings, or really maybe eight to three on how they'll land, because I think a lot of the same factors are end play, even if, like, the skill position talent varies in the way that they use their guys may vary.

So for the Packers in the second half of the year, so much of this was big time playmaking from Jordan Love, right? I don't know that we've been on podcast talking about how much we expect him to continue to grow as a leader of this franchise. I think between Tucker Kraft and Luke Musgrave, if one of those guys hit with the combination of wide receivers and they might have the deepest wide receiver core in the NFL, even if they don't have like that knockdown, drag out number one guy, I think that they have enough guys to kind of spread the wealth. And if one of those tight ends hit, this could be the third best offense in the NFL. I think right now I do want to see what Josh Jacobs looks like in this offense. He's coming off of some pretty high volume years over his last two seasons in Las Vegas. So I want to see what his legs look like and how much they're leaning on him within this offense because they do need an element of pass catcher out of the backfield and a guy that can help lead this offense on early downs.

I think that's going to go a long way to determining their early down success rate, which I think they were like middle of the pack about 17th in the NFL in. and a lot of this is going to be, can Romeo Dobbs take another step? Can Christian Watson stay healthy and continue to be an explosive play threat, right? Do we see more from Don Tavian Wicks? Does his target share take a leap the way that it started to in the second half of the year? And do we see more of that intermediate to deep downfield productivity? If we get that, then yeah, this offense is going to be a Super Bowl contending level offense. They're really just that eighth because I need to see it in the first half of this season before I feel very confident on what things will project out to be.

I was trying to hide my smile there, Deonte, as you were talking about the Green Bay Packers. Now, remember what I just said, that part of this exercise for me personally, see, I like to use the podcast. It will help inform the writing that, you know, thousands of people will see on the ringer.com. Right now, Deontay, I got the Green Bay Packers. That's my number one offense. I got the number one. I love this. I love this so much.

All right. Tell me. Okay. So I was looking at it. I mean, you did a good job sell. you got all the way to three. So I was like, I inch up from four to three,

Deonté, then I got a smaller gap here to fill. So, okay, Jordan Love, I can't hide how much I like Jordan Love. And I think if you look at it historically in the NFL, at least the last, what, 10, 15 years, year two of being a starting quarterback

is really when a lot of these guys blow up. Holmes obviously was great. His first year is a starter, but second year was probably his best year in the NFL. Lamar Jackson wins the, MVP in year two. Joe Burrow makes the big leap, right? They get to the Super Bowl in year two. And so a lot of times from year one to like I tried to identify in the summer, who's my year two quarterback? Who's the guy who I really liked last year? I saw and listen, sometimes I completely strike out. I'm sure I had,

you know, Justin Herbert as that guy. I was in love after his rookie season. And then it doesn't always, you know, progress linearly where, yes, you build on what you did as a rookie and you're still good. But I love the continuity here. I feel like all the pieces are set up for him to continue. And Matt LaFleur, like, I feel like there was this period where we all looked at Matt LaFleur and we're like, all right, nice head coach, but he's got Aaron Rogers. And now we've got to look at that and be like, was it easy to coach Aaron Rogers when he was age 36, 37, 38, and 39? And he's winning two MVPs and you finished first in offense and you finished second in offense.

Like now we probably look back at that. It's kind of like when Antonio Brown left the Steelers and you're like, man, I knew Mike Tomlin was good, but what was he doing over there, giving all that underwraps for all these years? Like, I kind of look at Matt Lafleur like that. And so to do that with Rogers and then to take Jordan Love and all those young players last year, I mean, that cannot be like, that was an amazing coaching job for all those guys to grow together and be playing the way they were in the second half of the season. So they didn't lose a lot on offense.

They lose guard John Runyon. They lose running back Aaron Jones. you mentioned it. Josh Jacobs comes in. So it's not like there's a lot of personnel turnover. The scheme is the same. The play caller's the same. I think the quarterback's wired right where he's like, you know, going to be ready to, you know, make this leap and be putting in the work. I feel like all those past catching options. I kind of like the depth there where if one guy goes down, it's not like, oh, your season's down the drain. You lost, you know, Devante Adams or something. It's like there's enough there where you can figure it out. So I'm taking a swing. You know,

sometimes you take a swing. I try to remind myself that Sheel, it's not going to be the same it was last year. You have these thoughts in your head about the offenses that were good, the teams that were good, the teams that suck, the offenses, there's going to be changed. This is what happens. This is why we love it because we're talking about something in week seven that we never expected. And so I was between a couple teams, which we'll get to the other one, but I eventually settled on the Green Bay Packer. So Deontay put on your, I don't know, your content hat, your editor hat, and are you saying, Sheal, you should maybe rethink this before you write up all 32? Or are you saying, listen, you sold me enough with your argument? I'm not going to go there, but go ahead and stick with it. So I guess if I was to take the other side of this argument, what I would say is, given the fact that I have the chief set nine because of what I think about their offensive tackle situation, I would really look and be like, Zach Tom and Rashid Walker, huh? That's your number one offense. Yeah. Those are the bookends for your number one offense.

And it doesn't have to say that they're bad players because we've seen when they're healthy, when they're on the field. I think that they're more passable than anything. And I think that this offensive infrastructure is kind of built, I think, less to feature offensive linemen as stars and more just to have a solid five. And I think that the way that they like to run their passing game tries to mitigate some of the problems that their tackles might have. And Jordan Love's done a really good job at knowing when to extend plays,

knowing how to get the ball out and how to protect himself, especially in the second half of the year when I think he got, a much more firm grasp, a much firmer grasp on the offense for Green Bay. So to me, that would be my pushback is just what this offensive line might be. And I think that that's probably going to be consistent across this whole exercise. And I think we both agree that if we're going to pick an offense to be number one, or not be number one, it's not going to be because of offensive line. No, that's no disrespect to my big guys.

We've got plenty of time to talk about the better offensive lines in the league, right? I really want to talk about the fun stuff, which is happening out on the perimeter, right? So I think that to the point that you are making, if Jaden Reed continues to grow, if Romeo Dobbs continues to grow, if Christian Watson continues to grow, none of those guys have to be all pros, right, because they just have such a depth of options. But just taking a step forward, if all of those guys proved to be a solid number two option in a vacuum, if you were just drafting guys to be a part of an offense, that does so much for Jordan Love and giving him availability of options to work through his progressions

quickly and feel confident or where the ball is going. We mentioned the tight ends, and I do think that they will be able to run the ball because they don't have a glaring weakness really up front. So I think that they have a lot of different avenues to be a top 10 offense. So I would say whether you have them, whether you're a fan or you have them closer to one like you do or have them closer to the last three like I do, I think that this is one of those teams that you would say for maybe like 98% of people who are doing this exercise, you're going to have them in the top 10 because it's hard to find a way.

for them not to be, that's not going to be just us talking about injuries to the quarterback or another key position or something like that. This is a very well-built franchise to have a top 10 offense, not just now, but two, three, four seasons into the future. Yeah, they were, your offensive line point is a good one. They were one of these teams that I looked at and said, every year they figure it out. They get so they plug someone in there. And like you said, the big guys on Twitter are tweeting out clips of, oh my gosh, look at this guy, Shale, who you've never heard of holding up in pass protection. Uh, so that the quays, Like the Packers just, I mean, they do a great job.

That's been one of their calling cards is just developing these young offensive line. And it's kind of like that sort of, you know, they're like don't have the weak link on the offensive line. You know, they're not, they got Elth King Jenkins is obviously a highly paid. They're a great player. But it's just like, can they just not have that weak link on the offensive line that defenses can attack? Is there enough there? That's what I'm banking on with that ranking. All right.

That was fun. So you had them, you had them at eight. I had them at one. I come in with my number eight team, a team near and dear to Deontalee's heart, and I've got the Philadelphia Eagles number eight. Are they in your top ten, Deontes? So they were 12th. They were right behind the bills.

Okay. Okay. So now I get to talk you into why the team you for the Philadelphia Eagles are, in fact, going to be a top 10 offense. So last year, just a painful watch for you, whether you're an Eagles fan or anybody. You didn't know it was just, it was brutal to watch that team, that offense in the second half of the season. And even with that, they finished 10th in offensive DVOA. So this is like the, can things really get worse theory?

You know, you bring in Kellyn Moore and all the stuff you didn't do last year. It's not like earth shattering, groundbreaking, offensive innovation. It's very simple. Mix a little motion in there, Kellyn, you know, maybe a little under center, maybe a little undercenter play action. and maybe you get jail and hurts on the move a little bit. You are allowed to do that. You know, contrary to what the Eagles coaching staff thought last year, you are allowed to do that.

You are allowed to throw the ball in the middle of the field, which the Eagles did less than any offense in the NFL last year. I'm not telling you they're going to be top five. They're not going to turn into the lions or the Texans or whatever. It's all about the little sprinkles, you know, a little seasoning on top of the offense to bring it into the modern era of 2024. So can Kellyn Moore do those things? I think it's reasonable to think.

he can do those things. And we know he has the keys. I mean, for anyone who read that ESPN.com article for I can tell you from being out covering Eagles training camp. I mean, Kellan Moore has the keys. He's not in here to work with Siriani on the offense. He's here to implement the offense he wants to implement. So you've got that. And then I just looked at the supporting cast. This was a team I was mentioning Deonté when I was talking about the bills. And I was like, I thought I'd have him higher. But then I'm like, A.J. Brown, Devante Smith, Sequin Barclay, Dallas Goddard, even if the O line takes a step back without Jason Kelsey, which I think they'll obviously take a step back. I think most people would agree. It's like an above average offensive line still. And so I added all those things up and I ended up, I settled on having them at eight. So what gives you the most concern with this group based on how last season ended and what you expect this season? My biggest concern, and I wouldn't even say that he's the most important piece of this offense, but it's just something that was a clear, they were clearly missing him last year after the Dolphins game and things just weren't right.

It's always the status of Dallas Goddard and whether or not you can get 2022 at a Dallas Goddard. Because if he's not available or if he's not as explosive in terms of production, yards after the catch, you know, they were able to get so much out of him on screens and underneath routes where he could turn up the field and get extra yardage and be in an outlet for Jalen Hurts. So we know it doesn't really throw, like, his number three wide receiver or the back out of the backfield very often. If he's not at his best, we're really looking at an offense that's just A.J. Brown and Devonte's going to take him the top off of this thing, which there are worse options to have, right? That's not to say that it's bad. But they were in that world last year. And what we saw from defenses is, A, they played a ton of split safety on early downs against Philadelphia's offense and really forced them to run the ball, which is great for Devons, which is great for DeVos.

Andre Swift, right? He was very effective running on early downs. And I think, you know, the success rate and the yards before contact, everything there would have told you he was a good back. But I think if you turned on the film, you would probably say it's really just more that teams are forcing them to run or giving them looks that really encourage him to run more than anything. And if Dallas Goddard isn't there to kind of help balance out the rest of this group, we're probably going to see them get blitzed a bunch. And I do expect killing more to maybe have better answers in this offense for them. I just don't know if it would be enough unless the guys at the top are playing at their peaks. I mean, this is how this roster has been built. There's not a ton of depth on either side of the ball, really, and definitely not on offense in terms of past catchers and defensive backfield. So there's going to be a lot on Jalen Hertz to make sure he's getting the most out of Dallas Goddard to find Saquan Barkley on checkdowns or Kenny Gainwell on checkdowns to be able to make something out of Paris Campbell or John Ross or Johnny Wilson, assuming they don't try to go add a third wide receiver, right? So I just kind of have some concerns about what the balance in terms of touches and game flow is going to look like for this offense.

Even if I'm maybe less concerned now after watching that preseason game about that whole 95% new thing because I think what we really saw is, okay, it's still going to be a spread offense. This is probably going to be a little bit more of a different flavor of spread offense, maybe more kind of NFL standard type of pro style spread offense that you see across the league. Yeah, there's definitely, you pointed to it, there's a fragility with this group. Like if Jalen Hurts, I don't think Jalen Hertz was dealing with injury stuff. anyone who watched him, he was not the same runner he was the year before. So if something like that happens and that's not available to you, well, how good is the run game going to be?

You mentioned it. Behind AJ. And it's a weird thing to say, I'm sure there are fans listening to this going, give me a break behind AJ Brown and Devante Smith. These are, you know, it's like one of the, maybe the best wide receiver table. Yeah. And that's true. Now, if one of those guys goes down, they might have the worst wide receiver two and wide receiver three in the NFL. I mean, they've got no depth behind those guys.

So, again, it's a first world problem. There's no doubt about it. But that's kind of what the stakes are with this group. I mean, they're not trying to go nine and eight and win a wild car. You know, there are jobs on the line with this offense. And the other concern I have, and I talked about this on a recent episode of Philly Special, it's just it's not just replacing Kelsey, you know, at center. And Cam Juergens is going to do that.

Now, Cam Jurgens was the right guard last year. Right now, Mackie B. Beckton, Jets fans, is your starting right guard and could be a great reclamation project. You know, hopefully for him, you know, you can get your career going in a different direction. He hasn't played guard in the NFL. He didn't play well at tackle last year for the Jets. He was available after the draft. I mean, think about that free agency frenzy where all kinds of guards and tackles.

They're getting paid stuff. You're going, wait, this guy got what? Oh, my gosh, teams are desperate for offensive line held and no one signed Mackay Beckton. So that really could go either way. Like there's a scenario where we're saying, man, that interior of that Eagles offensive line is something that they're really going to have to scheme and coach around. And in addition to all the other stuff, are they up for doing that? So I keep calling them boom or bust, a high variance team. You could talk me into any scenario with this Eagle team with this Eagles offense. And I would believe it. But I ended up settling on them

in my number eight spot. All right, seven, I think you already gave me, you had the Raven seven. Seven was Baltimore for me. Okay. And I had the Chief Seven. So we're through our sevens. Now we go to number six, Deontay. What do you got? Funny that I have this team here because I just said their quarterback with MVP the last

time we were podcasting. But I'm going with Cincinnati as one number six offense. Hey, we got them in the same spot. You and I are. What are we need to go hang out in Cincinnati for a we are aligned on the Bengals. They're listening to a lot of SHIELD podcast. I think I got a pretty good feel for where your takes might be. And I think for them, the reason why I feel so good about this offense, and I really kind of toggled with, do I want them fifth? Do I want them fourth? How do I feel about them versus Miami? How do I feel about them versus Houston or versus the Rams? These other offenses that I think, you know, the rest of the national media and NFL fans at large probably look at as, you know, you kind of stamp on top five, top eight offenses. And just watching what they were when they didn't have Joe Burrow, let me know, like, okay, Zach Taylor maybe has a few more levers he can pull what they're.

in this offense to help keep them on schedule, to keep getting the ball in his playmaker's hands. And now having Joe Burrow back, and obviously this is on the assumption that he has no more problems with his hand this year, with his rest, the rest of the season, that his lower body stays healthy, because that's been an issue before,

that he can stay upright in the pocket, continue to get the ball out, feel for pressure and get the ball, you know, out on time and on target. If they're able to do so, they do have a pretty nice assortment of toys in terms of past catchers. You know, Mike Gisicki,

who is not, not anybody's version of a true inline, tight-in, but will probably be a nice, like, flex piece for them. They brought in a couple of guys in Jermaine Burton and Yoseva, so I know we talked about with Nora last week to play, you know, to kind of help mitigate the loss of Tyler Boyd. If T. Higgins is healthy and at 100%, and if Jamar Chase is healthy and at 100%.

This could very easily be just as explosive in offense, as we've seen from Cincinnati, you know, that we've come to really be accustomed to with this offense. So I feel pretty strong about them being in this. to six range and I think that they'll probably show pretty strongly, assuming that these guys stay healthy. Yeah, I had them at four originally and then I bumped them down to six. You know, sometimes you have your, like you just mentioned, like you can tell that. All right, Chil's going to be high on the Bengal stuff.

And I'm like, all right, am I going too overboard with some of this stuff? And then, you know, there's all the talk about the burrow wrist. Listen, if you're listening, you're saying, come on, Burroughs got the wrist injury. Like, we can't say anything to ease your concern. All we can go off of is he's been practicing. He actually played in their preseason game. And so those, he looks like he's throwing the football well. And so the signs there seem to be positive.

And again, it was just two years ago, they had the fourth best offense in the NFL. And then to your point, I mean, Jay, if you were to tell me Jake Browning's coming in for seven games last year and they're going to finish 11th on offense, I would have been like, no way. What are you talking about? So Amerius Mims right before we said, maybe that scared me a little bit too, is Amarius Mim suffered a peck injury that broke on. Same for me. Yeah, right before we came on, I'm like, oh, I'm like, no, I'm keeping them at six. I'm not going lower than six. It sounds like he's going to be out.

I think Zach Taylor said several weeks, but has a chance to play in week one. And Trent Brown has not been the most, you know, reliable offensive linemen, but for a swing tackle, the guys played a lot of football on both sides in the NFL. And I know he was practicing for them today, too. So, yeah, I just like a team where the core pieces have been together, Borough Higgins, Chase. these guys have had a lot of reps together with Zach Taylor. There's not a lot of guesswork about who is going to be where and how do you see this coverage versus that.

That is a huge positive for this team. And I also like to your point, they've had to figure stuff out. It hasn't been, we're running the same thing year in and year out and defense is can't adjust to it. No, they've had to. They know they've had to. They can play different ways. And I feel like that's another kind of feather in their cap. So yeah, I had them in like four to six.

Where do I put them? And ultimately, I settled on six, but we're both aligned there with the Cincinnati Bengals. All right. Take one more break. Then we hit you with our top five. All right. We're back on the Ringer NFL show. Deontay, what do you got?

What's number five? Oh, my top five is so like boilerplate football nerd. Yeah, I'm almost embarrassed by this. Well, the orders, well, no, the order's a little different on mine, I think. But let's say. Okay. We'll see. We'll see how on Lance.

My fifth team is a L. Rams. And this was another team I kind of looked at. I was like, ah, how do I feel about offensive line injuries? A lot of guys nursing these lower body injuries and statuses are maybe uncertain in the preseason. And then I kind of had the same thought that I've had with some of the other teams that we've mentioned, like, let me just deal with what I think this team is at full strength. If nobody's on the IR right now, I don't have to treat them like they're not going to be available at all. And when I look at what they were able to do in the run game last year, that was maybe the most impressive coaching job on one side of the ball that we saw short of like Mike

McDonald dominating some of the better offenses in the NFL with the Ravens, right? Really being able to get downhill, set up a whole new style of run game for this offense, something that's a little bit different than what we saw last year with all the gap scheme and man scheme, running duo and things like that. And then being at training camp last week and looking at what Cooper Cup is like when his hamstring's not bothering them. And you can just see at practice, like when there are packages where, you know, he's a featured guy or, you know, in the red zone on third down, and you get to see that connection with Matt Stafford really come alive, it just reminds you that even if these guys don't have burners on the outside, the way that Miami does,

or the way that Houston does, they've just got a way of work in the middle of the field, of finding these openings, staying on on schedule, moving the chains on third down, to where I don't feel comfortable to dropping them any lower than fifth, assuming that everybody's going to be healthy. And if that run game can replicate what it was last year, based on what I think that this offense can do in a play action in a drop-back game, this is going to be a very electric offense,

I would imagine, even if it's not necessarily the fastest if we're judging by 40 times. All right. So this is one where I think I have to legit rethink it because I don't have the, I had the Rams right outside, my top. It was them and the Cowboys,

where I was debating between those two and the Ravens, who do I sneak in? I mean, I don't disagree with anything you said. it doesn't feel good to go against, you know, McVeigh and Stafford. I mean, McVeigh has produced top 10 offenses pretty consistently. So my reasoning here, the injury luck thing was one. You know, they're very healthy last year, fourth healthiest offense in the NFL. And your point's true.

Like, yeah, they've got offensive line injuries right now. They've got three guys out. I probably overweighted that in my head. And, you know, none of them are supposed to be like season ending in. We'll see. It doesn't help when it's like. They were like back to back to back, right? It was like, within a week.

It was like, oh, Rob Havesey's down. Oh, you know, Jonah Jackson's down. Alaric Jackson's down. Yeah, all three of them. So in my head, I'm already doing my summer work. I'm going, oh, they got really, you know, lucky with entries last year. And then I'm scrolling to a Jordan Rodriguez. Oh, down three offensive linemen.

Uh-oh, okay, move them down, chill. And it very well might be an overreaction. But that was really my main thing. That was one. Two, there's some other luck stuff that went their way. They lost five fumbles. all season last year. Now, again, how much stock are going to put into that when you look at some of the other stuff? And then Stafford, I've probably been on the wrong end of the Stafford decline now

for a couple of years. I mean, I did this exercise last year, and I had the Rams way down. I was like, this guy probably contemplated retirement in the offseason. Look at this offensive line. Like, you know, they got nothing behind Cooper Cup because you don't expect Puka Nakua to come in and do what he did. So I had him really low last year. And so I do feel like I've learned my lesson on that. If it's like, she'll let the Stafford decline come before you're projecting it. But he is 36 years old. Are you going to get 17 games out of him? You very well might. So I got to rethink that one. Yeah, I was really on the fringe of top 10 there. But your case is a good. They're high variants. Like I even wrote. They are high variants. Yeah. In my write-up, I'm like, yeah, this could easily be a top five group or they

they could fall out of the top 10 if some of that randomness doesn't go their way. So, all right, Los Angeles, Rams, Deontes Scott, at number five. I've got the Detroit Lions at... Oh, nice. Okay. Number five. Do you have them in the top five, Deonti? So similar to your reaction with the Packers, I have them first. Oh, yes. I have them first this year.

Okay. Lions and Pat. I'm on a lot of summer prognostications around. I'm going, lions or Packers, lions or Packers. Who do I want to go with here? So it's just really hard to find a legit reason why this offense isn't going to be just as good or, to your point, better than they were last season. Like all the nerd stuff I keep bringing up that you're probably yelling at me, shut up, nerd, if you're listening to this, who cares about entry luck and turnover luck?

It doesn't really apply to them. They did not get lucky with that stuff last year. They were around league average or worse than league average. So it's not like there were a lot of smoke and mirrors there with what they were doing. You look at continuity of the roster. They lose Jonah Jackson, a guard. They lose Josh Reynolds, a complimentary wide receiver. That's it.

The rest of their offense is intact. And this kind of goes to my Packers point. I like the teams where the players who you're expecting stuff from are in their mid-20s or early 20s where you're saying, these should be ascending players. I mean, Penae Soule, Amon Rae St. Brown, Sam Laporta, Jamir Gibbs, these are all guys whose best football should be ahead of them. They are ascending or in their prime. And then, of course, the biggest thing, I think probably both of us, if Ben Johnson were coaching the commanders right now, we'd probably both be bumping them a lot lower, but Ben Johnson comes back. So you got the scheme continuity. And so you got a lot of stuff there working in their favor. So sell me on Y. Five is a little lower. and why they're going to have the best offense in the NFL? Well, the sales fish for Detroit is continuity. You hit the nail on the head, right?

It's that all the most important pieces, the things that made this offense go are all still here. And I would say starting most importantly with the fact that they kept their play caller, right? That was a big storyline to watch at the top of the offseason. He stays in Detroit. I think that what we've seen over the last two seasons let us know that not only does he have a great kind of core philosophy

of using the run game to set up the play, play action game, finding ways to set up the pure dropback game, ways that protect Jared Gough from some of his worst habits, get the ball out of his hands quickly. And they've really designed some good offensive concepts to help him push the ball down the field, helped him really, you know, work those windows in the middle of the field. I thought that he looked really good at his best last year, putting the ball where it needed to be in the middle of the field that was kind of reminiscent of that 2016 to 2018 space

when he was with the Rams and being coached by Sean McVeigh, right, before things kind of fell off. after that Super Bowl loss. So I think that all the pieces are there for you to believe in them. I think if they're going to be a number one offense, and this is more my sales pitch, I would say is Jamir Gibbs continues to be an explosive guy, both of them run into past game. That can be kind of their game-breaking piece,

and then obviously the other one would be Jameson Williams. So this is kind of a projection play for me, is if I'm taking the bones of what they were last year, and you're adding Jameson Williams, who, by all accounts from everybody who's been to Lions Camp, to what Dan Campbell is saying, about him to what his teammates are saying about him. They all have called kind of reflected the same sentiment,

which is that, man, when he's rolling, he just gives something to this offense that we have not had on the perimeter, you know, and having that kind of combination of Amon Rae St. Brown working underneath or in the intermediate area, and Jameson Williams really pushing the ball down the field. If I'm Jared Goff, that's all you can ask for, knowing that you have San LaPorteur as well,

and Jamir Gibbs and David Montgomery, who are both backs that are comfortable catching the ball out of the backfield, There's really no reason why this team couldn't be a top three to five offense. I just think if you get the best version of their most explosive playmakers, this can be a really difficult offense to stop, especially when you keep in mind that with this offensive line, they can change gears at any time, put two tight ends on the field and really just mash you up front.

And that's probably the thing I like about them the most. Yeah, they feel like to what you were just today, they feel like the most maybe complete group. I mean, it's really hard to pinpoint like where are you going to ding them. Like play caller, no, offensive line, no. pass catchers, no, balance run game. No, I mean, I'm sure, you know, someone might say, well, what a shield? Jared Gough first season.

But, I mean, listen, we've seen, you don't have to be the biggest Jared Gough fan. We just have many examples now that when he's protected in a good situation, you can have a top five offense. Like, it wasn't a one season thing. Like this happened multiple times in L.A., and now it's happened multiple times in Detroit. And so even if you're not like, hey, Jared Gough is, you know, the best quarterback in the NFL, you do have to look at it. Well, all right, what is he? in this offense, in this environment. How does the offense operate?

And I think we both agree that it can operate at a high level. All right, move on to the top four. I love it. You had Lions first. I feel good about this, Deonte. We're not going chalk. The Ringer NFL show is not going chalk. We got Lions and Packers as our top offenses for 2024.

All right, give me your number four pick. What do you got? So the first thing I want to say is that this just about guarantees the fact that going over six and a half cashed, because there's just a number. just no way that these three teams are off your top 10. If they are, I can't wait to hear you sell me on this. I hope I'm not forget. I might be forgetting someone.

I am an old man, Deonti. So it's possible there's an obvious top five where I'm like, oh, shoot, totally forgot about that team. But hopefully not. The only two we've disagreed on so far were Buffalo and Philly who were at the bottom of the top 10, ninth and eighth respectively. And Rams though, too, right? So.

Was that rally? That's right. Yeah. Okay. So Rams and Cowboys for me, bills and Eagles for you. so we can't have any more misses if I want to feel safe about this bet. But my number four team here is Houston. I've got the Texans at 4th.

You look at what they were able to accomplish in spite of all the things that were wrong with this offense, quote unquote, right? Like the annoyance, and I'm sure this was shared with you. I remember talking to Ben Solac about this, our old colleagues talking to Stephen Ruiz about this, despite the fact that they would run the ball so often on early downs to absolutely no avail. I mean, they were getting very little to nothing. If anything, it was setting their offense back, trying to run the ball on early downs, and they were still able to lean on C.J. Stroud in these obvious passing situations, and he was able to deliver for them, right?

Keep himself out of trouble. I think maybe the most impressive thing about Stroud, speaking to his talent individually, is that the interception rate was so low and that the sack rate was so low. And those are two things that dog young quarterbacks, especially ones that are playing behind a often injured offensive. of line, which Houston certainly was all year. They really couldn't land on their top five rotation because guys were always hurt, and that's something that I think will be better this year.

And then he lost Tank Dell, who early in the season was his explosive play guy outside of Nico Collins. And I think losing him and still being able to maintain in the dropback game speak so highly to how well he can process it through this offense, he can solve problems that defenses are throwing at him, and he still avoids the negative plays while being aggressive in how he works against the defense. So Stefan Diggs still has any gas left in the tank. Nico Collins and Tankdale are both available to him. I think we'll see a lot more 11 personnel. I think that if you look at this roster and this depth chart, it's built a little bit more

to put some big boy pants on CJ Stroud and really say, hey, this offense is going to be a top five group because of you. I think if that happens, then yeah, this offense can definitely be a top three unit. I just have them out fourth right now because I want to see whether or not Bobby Sloa can abandon a little bit more of the early down run stuff and exactly what the target share is going to look like for this pretty deep wide receiver group. So I have the Texans at number two, Deontay. I thought about having number one. So yeah, you and I are both pretty aligned on the Houston Texans that we're buying the hype of this team. I mean, I like, you know, whether you're looking at the over, speaking of which, by the way, Deonti, the Fandual Parlay builder.

I mean, if you're looking to build something, this and this Texans offense, there are things out there. That parlay builder is a sub tab in the NFL sports section on Fandul and a drop down after week one games and Super Bowl. So you can mix a match, a bunch of player prop futures, and this Texans team might be one that you want to look at. So I love what you said there. So I was thinking about the early down run thing. And yes, I am aligned with the nerds that one of the things that I hate out of an offense, is that when they're not good at running the ball and they run the ball at a high, and they're very good at passing the ball, and they still run the ball at a high rate.

I don't like that. That annoys me. I look at the play caller sideways. I say, why are you doing that, man? You could still protect your quarterback. You don't have to take a seven-step drop and bomb it, but what are you doing? Your 30th in rushing DVOA, stop with the early down runs and stop making your quarterback. I think I know where you're going with this.

Be Superman. But I was thinking about this, Deonti, and I don't know Bobby Sloick. I'd never talk to the man, but I was like, all right, she'll sometimes try to get in the coach's head. Rookie quarterback last year. Offensive line. You mentioned the injuries. This wasn't just a few injuries.

If you look at adjusted games lost, again, on FTN, this was the most injured offensive line. They've ever tracked. I mean, they had no, you know, I just talked about, I think it was the bills, right, where I mentioned 97% of the snaps their starters played. The Texans, their, most common five-man combination, play 24.8% of the snaps. So if D'Amico Ryan, and I covered D'emico

Ryan's as a player, I'm sure you say, hey, do not get the quarterback killed here, okay? Like, we can still win games. So if you're saying, I have a rookie quarterback. My offensive line is banged up. And, you know, last year, some of those past catching options were unknown, I can see the inclination to say, let's be a little conservative, protect our young quarterback, and run the ball. So I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt. Now, Deonti, if we're on here in week six or week seven, and I'm pulling up that chart and the Texans are top five in run heaviness on early down and score neutral situations, I will be on here yelling at my August self and yelling at Bobby Sloick and saying, why did you give him the benefit of the doubt? She'll, so I think I can explain

that away. And everything else, man, I just, the past catch. I don't know how many people, Nico Collins, like, is going to be a star. I mean, he is an absolute monster. The advanced stats on him are nuts. He was second in yards per route run to Tyree Kill last year. He had 1,297 yards. Amazing after the catch. You mentioned Stefan Diggs, it's like, yeah, he doesn't have to be the Stefan Diggs.

He was in Buffalo in Houston. Like, he still had, I feel like he's getting dogs a little bit too much. The guy had 11883 yards last year. Like, he wasn't a bum last year. So if he has, like, 800 yards, guess what? That's great production for a number two receiver. And you still have Tank Dell who could emerge as their number two receivers. So those past catching options and then just what you saw from Stroud, whether it's the eye test, the film, the, I mean, I don't know

how you watch that guy. And again, sometimes rookie seasons lie to us, but I just feel so good about that guy making the leap. Like he's the same thing I said about Jordan Love. Stroud's the other guy where I'm like, this guy we could just be talking about as an MVP candidate and one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. So yeah, I'm all in on this Texans offense. I think they're going to be awesome. I'm explaining away some of my concerns. And hopefully we just get to get to see CJ Stroud have a monster season. So we're aligned with the Texans in the top five. I'm with you. You know, and the funny, the last one I wanted to make on Houston, to the point that you were talking about with all the early down runs. And I was actually having this argument with a lot of

fans, right, who felt, I think, similar to how you were kind of explaining and similar to how I felt before I looked at the data, right? Why are you doing all this early down running? Why all the heavy personnel? But one of the things that it did was they kept the rate of man coverage that they were seeing very low. Like I think I checked right around the end of the season in December. They were seeing like the lowest rate of cover one in the NFL. So you get a bunch of zone out of that. And teams are playing single high zone, right? So if you're getting a bunch of cover three, which is what that offense is built to really attack out of this and you're not getting the things that make it difficult as often. I can understand why you might want to take that

approach. The thing I like about what they did this year was probably a little bit of recognition of where things are going, right? You're probably never going to be defended like that again. Now that everybody knows what your quarterback is like and, you know, Nico Collins and Tankdale have earned the respective defensive coordinators around the league. Why not just lean into that and say, hey, let's bring in a third receiver so that way we're already balanced out. We know we're going to see more split safety looks. We know we're going to see more soft zone coverage. And let's make sure we have the past catchers that can get open against that and create after the catch.

So CJ's drought doesn't have to hold the ball now trying to force things open or really having to throw in the tight windows very often. So I think the bones there are just as good. Similar to how we talked about with Detroit and with the Packers, even though some of their guys aren't necessarily as young within this core outside of Strout, I think that they took the right approach to really making the most out of what they have with this quarterback and this offensive infrastructure. Yeah, no, no doubt about it they went for it. And I think at least offensively this season, it's going to work.

All right, that was your number four, right? I had Texans too. So my four is the Miami Dolphins. Okay. I have them third. I got to say, Deontay, as I was doing this, like some of them, I write it down, I felt great about it. Texans, I felt great about it.

Packers, I felt great about it. The dolphins, I feel a little unsettled about it. And I don't know why. I want to talk through it with you because I'm looking at it. I'm going, come on. You know, I was in the same spot last offseason where I said, all right, Mike McDaniel did it one year. But now let's see, what's his plan B? That's a big thing for me in the NFL with the first time head coaches or play call.

It's like, all right, you did it year one. Now let's see defense is bounce back, react to what you did. Do you have a plan B? And their offense was even better. And they still have Tyreek Hill and they still have Jalen Waddell and they still have Devon A-Chain. And I don't know why, like in my head, I'm like, I don't know, Shiel, you want to bump them down a little bit. But basically, I was just sticking to the analytical part of my brain, the data and not the gut, the vibes, whatever. Tua played 17 games last season.

Now, the year before, I think he played 13 and they were still like six. So they can kind of withstand, you know, him missing. some games. Where are you with this Dolphins offense? Like, are there actual reasons to doubt that they are going to be a top five group, or is it just something in my head that I need to get over? It feels oxymoronic, but this was like one of the top three units that I just like, I know they're going to be top three because they're going to have such a high explosive play rate, but I just feel so uninspired right now. And maybe that just is a reflection of how I feel about the quarterback more than anything. And I don't want to be unfair. Yeah.

I don't want to be unfair to him because it's not like he's doing anything other than what the offense is calling for him to do, right? So I don't want to hold him to the same expectation I would have of a Joe Burrow where I know that, hey, it's a drop-back game, the ball's in your hands. You've always got to have the answer against pressure and all these different coverage looks. This offense is really kind of manicured in a way to where all it has to do is hit the top of his drop and deliver the ball to where it needs to be. But I can't get the bad taste out of my mouth of what this team looks like down the last six to seven weeks of every. season, right? And I don't know exactly what that is. A lot of that, I think, A, is the fact that that their offensive line is not very inspiring, especially when Tarahe-Arstead isn't there. And that hasn't been changed, right? I look at Austin Jackson play right tackle. That's never

going to feel comfortable for me. You look at the interior of the offensive line. Isaiah Wynn is on the Puff list right now. So I'm not sure where things are going to stand with this group. Tehran Arnstead says he feels good, but this isn't the first song that we've heard Taran Arfstahs say that he feels good and then eventually there's a lower body injury that forces him to miss time. And I again, don't want to be unfair to this group because they've been so productive. I just want to make sure that we're grounded in reality, right? And while I think as long as you have Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle basically, you know, running the 100 meter dash on the outside, you're probably safe, especially if Tua is as healthy as he was this last season. It's just something

where similar to what you mentioned with Philadelphia and some of the other teams, it's just that fragility is 100% there at so many positions with this offense. And Mike and Daniel, I think, has had to go to the absolute ends of his understanding of football to try to find ways to protect this offense from itself to where if any thread is out of place at all, I can easily see this being maybe not like 15th, but closer to that kind of 9 to 12 range if teams continue to adjust and take things away and really force them to play in a way that it's uncomfortable to this entire group

in terms of having to run the ball down the hill and how they having to play like drop back game and obvious passing situations, which is really where they've struggled. Yeah, I love how you described that. I think you nailed it as you were talking. I'm like, yeah, no, I think that is why I feel that's like a threat out of play.

Because we've seen that. We've seen that with our eyes, the last two seasons. I mean, last year against playoff team three, one in six with a minus 110 point differential. Now, you can do that and you're beating up and you can score 70 against the Broncos. And we're going to go, you know, check the stats at the end of the season. And it's going to look good. But it doesn't match like how legit we think you are in a playoff matchup against a good defense.

And are you going to be able to answer the call there? So I think the way you described it is right. And I think that's probably what it is. I mean, I wrote the fewest notes like of any team for prep, like the same as you were describing some like yeah they've been awesome the last two years yeah they're really fast no one's going to be able to keep up with them right daniel's a good coach they'll be fine but yeah on inspiring was a good way uh to put it there as well so we'll see i mean the offensive line with them like you put that offensive line on some of these other teams and you'd be that would be the first thing we talked about

like they got no chance now macdainils earned the benefit of the doubt because you could have said that each of the last two years but it doesn't mean it's not going to catch up with them eventually or to your point in a certain situation or when it's third and eight in the fourth quarter and it's a one possession game. Well, yeah, there, you know, there's not a lot you're going to be able to do to hide that. So I think those are the good points to hit on. And even then, we still both have them in our top five here. So there you go. It's not that bad dolphins fans. We're not, you know, we still have you in the top five. All right. So I think that leaves us with one team, right? And you have them at four and I have them at three. Yep. You can't just.

to not having this team on the list, right? I don't care how you feel about Brandon I. I don't care how you feel about the Trent Williams contract situation. I don't care about how you feel about Brock Brady right now or when it gets paid in the future. They were in the top, they were in like the top three of almost every major statistical category, advanced, basic, you know, stats. No matter where you look, you turn on the film. They were so good in so many different ways. There's no way you could not see them being a top three unit, top five unit in the NFL again.

So that's my number two team here is the San Francisco 49ers. And I think that they can probably replicate some of the data even if it's not exactly the same as it was last year. I am interested to see what the next wrinkle is going to be. I think last season it was a lot of getting Christian McCaffrey out enrout really quickly. They are basically running their entire offense, at least the passing game, like it was empty, because you were able to get Christian McCaffrey involved in the passing game. So now I really want to see what the next evolution of this whole thing. offense is. What we saw in the Super Bowl was that Steve Spagdolo kind of admitted like, hey,

we can't just play you straight up and cover you man for man. So we're not going to bother. We're going to blitz Brock Purdy and make him uncomfortable, right? We're going to throw these different tight man coverage looks at them and force him to win in tight windows. And that's not to say that every defense can do what Kansas cities can because they are kind of uniquely physical and I think versatile enough to be able to handle an offense like San Francisco's. But I do think we'll see more teams lean into some of those answers and really force Kyle Shanahan, I think, to get back into playing heavier bodies,

heavier personnel types, getting back into the downhill running game, which is something that I think kind of fits this personnel group anyways. We might see a little bit more manufactured touches for Devo, Samuel. And for all of these different changes that I'm naming, these are all things we've seen Kyle Shanahan do and deliver a top five offense with.

So they just have so many different options that they can get to and really hurt defenses with. there's no reason not to have them as a top three unit again. Yeah, I mean, I thought that one of us was going to have them at number one, you know, just because of what you described. And then just the stats last year were so absurd that I got to a point where I was just like, that's just going to, that type of season is hard to replicate, which is why I think you saw it on Kyle Shanahan's face when he's sitting in the basement there

of the stadium in Vegas. Like, I can't believe it didn't happen with this team because that, like, that was the team. It's hard to picture things going more right than they went last year. I mean, Brock Purdy last year averages 9.6 yards per attempt. Only Kurt Warner this century, Deontay, has had a higher yards per cent than Brock Purdy last year. They had the second best injury luck in the NFL. We've talked about fragility with some of these teams and it applies to them. If McCaffrey goes down, if Trent Williams goes down, you know, what does it? Debo Samuel. Debo Samuel, Brandon Ayuk, if he's still on the team or if he's not going to be on the team.

This summer, they have all the signs of a team going through that Super Bowl hangover. I mean, you got two of your best players, Trent Williams and Brandon Ayuk are not practicing because they're in contract disputes just today where it was last night. They called off their joint practice with the Saints because they had 23 players unavailable to practice. You've got a head coach who is not just like, oh, chill, it's all like, no, that's not his personality. intensity is only going to increase every year that he doesn't get that Lombardi trophy.

The people around him are going to feel it and it's going to show on the guy's face. And so you got all that stuff. And yet I'm looking at this going, unless Ayyuk gets traded, the whole offense is basically coming back. And they had one of the best offenses statistically of the last 10 years last season. I can't bump them any lower than third. So this third is baked in like quote unquote bad stuff happening to them that's kind of baked in and they withstand it and I still have them third here. So they were a tough one. Yeah,

I think a lot of people would have them first. This again, in my head, I'm like, all right, just remember, it's not going to be exactly the same as last year. And so I bumped them down a little bit, but you and I still have them both in the top three. The overhits, Deonté, you had the eight of ten. You know, that's a bad overunder by me. I should have at least made it seven and a half. Bad job by May. Preseason from May, too. I made it six and a half. course it's going to go over six and a half. But at eight, we had eight matching teams. I had the Eagles and the Buffalo Bills. You had the Rams and the Dallas Cowboys in there. Those are literally the two teams I had just out of my top 10. So I think we're pretty aligned on the top 12 here.

And then after that, it does get fun. And I'm sure we'll talk about some of those teams here in the episodes ahead. All right, that was a lot of fun. I like it. There were some. We were aligned on some. Some others we liked, but you're like, man, I thought I liked them. I didn't like them as much as you like them. We got to talk about those two. So it was fun to go through all of those. Thank you to Deontay Lee. Thank you to producer. Christopher Sutton, thanks to Eduardo Ocampo on social additional production supervision by Connor and Evans and Arjuna, Ram Gopal. Deonti and I will be back later in the week, joined by our friend Stephen Reeves. So check for that in your feed. We'll talk to you then on the Ringer NFL show. Must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus and present in D.C. Gambling problem.

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