The Ringer NFL Show - Risers and Fallers and Helmetless Footballers I The Dantasy Football Podcast

Episode Date: August 19, 2019

Danny Kelly and Danny Heifetz look at the players whose stocks have gone up or down since their positional previews and debate what to do with Andrew Luck and Antonio Brown. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Welcome to the Danesley Football Podcast brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network. My name is Danny Hyphitz, and I am joined by the one, the only, the hero we need, the fantasy analysts we deserve, the Dark Night Danny Kelly. D.K., what is on your mind? My neighbor has a parrot, and it's yapping up a storm out there, so I'm hoping that you guys can't hear my neighbor's parrot during this podcast. But other than that, not a whole lot, man. How are you doing? What kind of parrot? Like a macaw? I think it is a cockatoo, is what I was told.

And apparently they live to be about 80 years old, so. Wait, really? Kind of stuck with this thing for a while, probably. Yeah. The bird can just serve in for Craig, because Craig is out this week. He's trying out a receiver for the Oakland Raiders, so we wish him luck. And speaking of luck, we're going to be running through the risers and fallers since our last few episodes. We've done an episode on quarterbacks on running backs, on receivers, on tight ends.

But since then, there have been some changes. Some people got hurt. Some people... Things happen. Some people don't want to play football because they want to use their old helmet. A lot's been going on. So we're going to bundle up all those changes and put them together with some people who are rising and some people who are falling. So we're going to start with the obvious one.

Well, not the obvious one. Let's be real. Antonio Brown's the obvious guy, but we're going to put him off a little bit. We're going to start off with Andrew Luck. We're going through this again. This is really happening again. It's deja vu all over again, shouts Yogi Berra. But Luck has not practiced in nearly three weeks with another, not such a mysterious injury, like that shoulder injury that kept him out all of 20.

2017, but... It's kind of mysterious, though. It's pretty mysterious. So here's the deal. So he's been out for three weeks. There's no timetable for his return. He missed OTAs with a calf strain in May, and then they said he'd be healthy in June. Missed the OTAs in June.

Even luck was surprised that he wasn't healed yet. But he reported for training camp played in practices in July, but aggravated. It has not played in August. There is still no timetable for his return, which is really concerning for August 19th, which is when we're recording. And the real issue is Jim Ursay and Colts GM, Chris Ballard, came out on Monday. But, I mean, Jim Ursay had the real quote, which was like, it's this little bone thing. It was like, that doesn't sound like a calf muscle.

So we don't know the deal here. It doesn't sound like the Kevin Durant comparisons are worthy at all. It doesn't sound like Dick Killies is a thing. But it does sound like there is a bone issue. I'm not a scientist. So I don't know the deal. But I do know that no timetables are concerned. So, D.K., this must move luck down.

for you, but how much and how much does it affect the rest of the Colts offense from T.Y. Hilton, Eric Ebron, Marlon Mack, all those guys. So, yeah, it definitely does move luckdown for me. Like, if you're drafting, if you're going into a draft, I mean, his ADP right now, he's a QB5 and overall 71. So, I mean, are you going to take him that early? Like, that is a huge, huge risk. I already subscribed sort of to the late-round quarterback philosophy anyway. To me, this just makes luck undraftable, honestly, like, in a one a quarterback league, at least. You could galaxy brain this and say that quarterback is so deep that you would be willing to take luck at a discount because you could get, like, Lamar Jackson as a backup anywhere,

or even Jared Goff, maybe. But, yeah, no, I, this is terrible because I loved luck as MVP. I loved luck for all the awards this year, but now this is just terrifying. And obviously, it depends when you draft. I think that will be a theme for a lot of these going forward. But, man, I don't want a quarterback with no timetable to return. So that's tough. Chris Ballard, the Colts GM, came out and said that anything front and back and forth,

he's good, but standing there throwing, he's good. But it's moving around the pocket. Those are the kind of things that we've got to get him better at. Like, the very important thing of moving around in the pocket. So, yeah, it's just, it's really concerning. If you watch, so there's a, sometimes it's really illuminating to watch the videos that reporters tweet on Twitter instead of reading the quotes because you can really get more. sometimes at watching the player speak.

Luck had a pretty good explanation for this. A couple weeks ago at this point where he said, look, if I come back and I'm playing in pain, I can play, but I'll be average. I have no interest in being average. I won't be Andrew Luck, and I want to be Andrew Luck when I'm on the field. Oh, boy.

And part of what makes luck, luck is scrambling around the pocket, extending plays. That's what he does. So if he's not luck, then don't you have to Andrew Luck if you're still paying for name brand if the man himself doesn't think he'll be that.

So the question, though, like Ty Wyatt Hilton, though, does this hurt his value in your mind? Or is he still a top-end target? Yeah, no, 100% it hurts his value in my mind. I mean, his quarterback might be hurt. And, like, I think Jacoby Brissette's one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league. He's a good, he's a good ball thrower. So that's good in terms of what he could do with a company. I have no interest in investing in a receiver who very easily could have a backup quarterback week one.

So that's just, no. Does it up Marlon Max's potential, though? No, because I think it downgrades the offense. I don't think it ups him personally. I think it definitely downgrades Hilton and Ebron. Yeah, we got something to really monitor going forward. I mean, that's potentially a massive, massive NFL-wide storyline. So pretty crazy.

That's going to keep the theme. So speaking of NFL-wide storylines, a couple holdout situations. Yeah. Zeke L. Elliott, when we talked about this a couple weeks ago at this point for the running back pod, we just dismissed the idea that Zeke would miss any time, or at least I did. He's still holding out. His ADP, his average draft position

is slightly fallen from like 1.2 to like 1.4. But again, so fantasy drafts are really going to begin over the next two or three weekends. Tony Pollard, who Jerry Jones has just been very excited to talk up Tony Pollard. And there's been all these comparisons between like Emmett Smith's hold out like 20 years ago.

And they're talking up this running back from Memphis. he had all 13 first team snaps. And running back is sort of putting it loosely because he was actually sort of a slot receiver for them. I think he played in the slot as a receiver more than as running back. Pollard is an very, very interesting piece of leverage.

He did look really, really good though. I think he played 13 first team snaps with DAC last weekend. And he looked really good. So, yeah, it just kind of depends on whether you believe the hype and if you believe that they're using this, if it's more than just leverage, I guess. I think it's all leverage.

I don't think Elliot misses any games. I think that the Levi-on-Bel thing is fresh in everyone's minds and is now easy to forget how that was completely unprecedented. Different situation. Different situation. Really small but important details

that Levy on Bell was not under contract. He was franchise tagged and then the way that works is the player is to sign the tag and then they play. He did not sign and then he never signed so he wasn't under contract, couldn't be fine, and then Prince's way to free agency. Elliot is under contract, can be fine,

and then it's years away from doing that, even if you wanted to, which would burn the bridge with the Cowboys. It's such a different situation, but I think for negotiating purposes, it definitely works in their favor to put the perception out there that he would have missed games.

I think Jerry Jones is calling all this. I think that he's going to play. I think you definitely want to draft Tony Pollard if you draft Zake, 100,000%. There's no reason not to. I mean, Pollard is barely drafted at this point, so you can get him at the end of your, But he's not James Connor

and I don't think this is a James Connor Leveen-Bell situation. So your guess is that he's going to not miss any games? I dropped Elliot from I think he's now fourth in that four-person tier. Saquan Barclay, Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey and whatever do you want to put them? And then

Zika's fourth. He's not left that tier but the fact that we have to have this conversation alone puts him forth. But I'm not worried enough about him. Some people had him as the overall number one in certain scenarios, you know? If he had showed up to training camp, he'd be that for me. Yeah, in standard leagues anyway. So I'm not worried about him, all. Now, the one person who I'm still not worried about, but I think there's a

better chance that they would hold out is Melvin Gordon on the Chargers. He's also not shown up yet. I think he is a better chance than Elliot to hold out, but it's still low. For as simple as, Ezekiel Elliott wants to stay on his team. Melvin Gordon just wants a deal because Melvin Gordon, unlike Zeke, has an injury history and needs to get paid because if he gets injured, he's really at risk of not maximizing his earnings. Right. So Gordon has a little more to lose here,

but per Fantasy Pro's consensus ADP, his average draft position has dropped into the late second or early third round. This is kind of surprising to me, actually, how far he's dropped. I mean, Zika's dropped two spots total, and Gordon has dropped from, I think, like a late first rounder into the, again, into the early third, late second, early third in some places. People really are kind of worried about this. And so depending on how you look at it, he could be a great value or he could be a huge, huge risk.

So there's a lot of reasons to not love Gordon this year, but he is dropping into value for me. Because, again, another key difference between Elliot Gordon is that, again, Tony Pollard on the Cowboys is not proven. Austin Echler is a pretty decent backup running back. He's very explosive. Pretty good third running back. Eklur right now is going 77th overall. He's like 32 among running backs. But the thing was Gordon was kind of overvalued when he was going 10th or 12th where he was.

He was already expected to grass a lot in touchdowns. He had 14 last year in like 12 games. Based on the volume he had with carries and touches, he was supposed to have around 7 based on numbers. And then his offensive line is getting worse because Russell Okung is out. He had a pulmonary embolism, no signs yet of when he might return. So now replacing him at left tackles Trent Scott. They have Sam Tevi at right tackle, maybe the worst right tackle in the league. So they have maybe the worst tackle combo in football.

And they already had one of the worst guard combos with Dan Feeney and Michael Schofield at left and right guard. Surrounding Mike Pouncey at center. So you have a bad line situation. And then another person will get to in a moment is Keenan Allen, who is going to miss at least the preseason with an ankle injury. So the Chargers are kind of dropping like flies, unfortunately. And that's not to say anything of Derwin James. But I mean, do you, at what point do you think Gordon becomes a value? That is the question.

I do think in the early 30 is a good value, honestly. And to what you said, like, yes, I think he is a very strong regression candidate. And what you said, he scored five, I think he scored seven and a half touchdowns over expected. And that is a result of he was extremely, extremely productive and consistent in the red zone. I think I actually saw this stat when I was writing. I wrote an article last week about the stickiest stats and expected touchdowns was one of them. And I think he scored, I'm just on the top of my head, like 12 out of 15 carries inside the 10-yard line, which is absolutely unsustainable. That's not going to happen again.

So he could drop, like you said, he could drop like seven touchdowns or whatever back towards where he's expected to get based on his usage. And then if you add in the fact that he might miss a couple games at the beginning of the season, ultimately I think he's going to play most of the most of the time. of the season. He may miss a game or two early on. But yeah, I mean, if you're getting him in the third round, I do think that's a pretty good value. All right. I'm going to make you play a quick name game real quick with Melvin Gordon. Melvin Gordon or Dalvin Cook? Melvin Gordon. I don't trust Dalvin Cook either. Injury wise, it makes me nervous. So, but yeah. Melvin Gordon or Todd Gurley? Gurley? I don't even know on that one. These are such difficult decisions, man. Like these, like, how do you predict exactly what Gurley's going to do? Is he going to

fade at the end of the year? I think I would lean Gurley, um, just because even, you know, 60, 65% of what he did last year is still like insane production. So I think I would lean girly in that situation. But again, these are really, really tough decisions. I think, you know, what Gordon was a top 10 guy early in the summer and now there's a ton of uncertainty. And that's exactly kind of what we're seeing. And while we're on the Chargers, do you drop Keenan Allen because of this ankle injury. Right now, Keenan Allen is another guy in the 20s. He's the 10th wide receiver number 24 overall in fantasy drafts or mock drafts right now.

So Adam Schefter said the ankle injury is, quote, not considered serious. He's expected back for the regular season opener. But now he's at the very least he has to manage an ankle injury all year. And he was an injury prone guy who had that label, but then kind of beat it the last couple of years. Now he's got another injury to manage. Does this change how you feel but him or Mike Williams or Hunter Henry behind him? Yeah, I think I would drop Alan in my mind I mean, think about the guys that are around him in ADP.

Adam Thielen is the wide receiver 11. You got T.Y. Hilton is wide receiver 12. I think I would probably take those two guys over Keenan Allen at this point. Amari Cooper is wide receiver 13. Stefan Diggs, 14. So, and this isn't standard scoring. And I don't know. I just think the uncertainty, again, the injury thing is very, very concerning.

Obviously, he's played a couple. He's been reliable in last couple seasons, but he's got a lot of injury history in his past. Yeah, so that is definitely a concern. I think that the Allen injury exposes that there's this soft middle receiver class after Mike Evans and goes off the board where you have T.Y. Hilton, who's Andrew Luck is hurt,

and then you have Keenan Allen, who himself is hurt. Then you have Thielen and Diggs, who I personally am worried about whether Kirk Cousins is going to be able to make both of them where they're going. I think one of them will stay and one of them will fall. and I don't know which it is, so I don't want either. And then Amar Cooper's solid. And then there's like a bunch of upside receivers from Brandon Cooks and Chris Godwin.

And I kind of want to wait to get to that next class of guys. I think I'm with you on that one, yeah. I don't feel great about any of that, yeah. Getting away from the Chargers, but sticking with Gordon. Josh Gordon is back, D.K. Yes, right after we talked about him in the last podcast, he got reinstated, I think, like 15 minutes after we published the podcast. That is why full-time Craig is full-time. Yeah, he called that.

plug Josh Gordon when he was completely undrafted. Gordon was reinstated by the NFL last week. He was traded the Patriots last year for like a fifth and a seventh rounder. And then from week three to week 15, Gordon was the 24th best wide receiver in fantasy for the games he was playing. Right behind Kenny Gulladine out of Humphreys, but ahead of Mike Williams, Larry Fitzgerald, and Emmanuel Sanders. Got his Super Bowl ring, invited to the ring ceremony. Nice. So now, I mean, look, where he's being drafted now is completely irrelevant because he's about to be drafted in like the

70s or so. Right. And again, just a little quick re-up. In 2013, it's 1,6 receiving yards and nine touchdowns when he was getting passes from Jason Campbell, Bryn Whedon, and Brian Hoyer. And he's the only player in NFL history with back-to-back 200-yard seasons was basically Randy Moss for one year. So with a fantasy lens, obviously the risk of him being resuspended is huge.

But from a fantasy lens, how do you feel about him being back? I mean, I think it's, well, number one, I think it's awesome. I think, and yeah, it's a big, big deal. He could be the top guy in that offense now. I mean, obviously, Edelman's there and he's going to play a big part of it, but I think he has, yeah, he's got elite potential. He's still that guy. He's still, you know, based on all reports, he's still working out really hard. He's still going to be that athletic, you know, freak down the field and can stretch a defense and all that.

he showed early on in the Patriots offense that he could kind of go into it and play and figure out how to do. A lot of people have trouble going into that offense because especially for receivers in that offense, it's a lot of like option routes and side adjustments, which means when you line up, you're looking at the defense and you're supposed to decide exactly what they're playing. Like based on the coverage, you have adjust your route and you have to do it sort of on the fly. And it's not like Brady's yelling at you what it is. You guys have to be on the same page with Brady. And that's why it's been so hard for so many receivers to go into that offense and kind of figure it out right away. And he did that.

And now he's had another whole offseason to, in theory, study that offense and get on the same, you know, get it really, really ingrained and figure it out. And so I think there's tons of potential there. He's a really, really talented player. And so it's exciting. I think if you stashed him ready, like, congrats, give yourself a hand. I mean, I mean, if you stashed it. First of all, if you stashed them already, I don't know how you're having drafts before August 19th, but congratulations. What are you talking about?

People have drafts all summer. I've already had like 15 drafts. Look, man, that's so much anxiety. Oh, my God. But, yeah. You got to do early drafts, man. It's a whole different ballgame. But yes.

Yeah, it is. That's why it's terrible. Brady had him at his house. I believe his locker was next to Brady last year. So, I mean, they definitely took it seriously. I'm not going to let you get away with Josh Gordon's high upside. So we're going to, he's ranked like 70-ish was where he got put. But honestly, I think there's nobody that will garner a wider range of thoughts and where he should be drafted.

So another name game with him, Josh Gordon or Jarvis Landry? Gordon. Kenyon Drake. Gordon. Alshan Jeffrey. That's a tough one. I think I'd lean Gordon just upside, but that's tough. Yeah.

I like Jeffrey too. DJ Moore and Carolina. DJ Moore, I think. I lean a little bit on that one. Alan Robinson with Chicago. I like Robinson, but I lean Gordon just because I don't trust Trubisky in that offense at all.

But could you just throw that back at me? Do you trust Gordon and to stay in the Patriots offense? Sure, yeah. Why not? I think, well, let's not get into why not, but... Yeah, I think I do, yeah.

No, I'm with you in that. Look, fantasy, obviously, I mean, here this all the time, but it's talent and opportunity. The talent's not a question. with Gordon, but the opportunity is huge because he really did pick up the offense. So, look, practically speaking,

it's like an injury risk, you know, but when he plays, it's incredible. Right, right. All right, TK, before we keep going and get to a certain helmet-addled player, let's take a quick break. Hiring is challenging, but there's one place you can go where hiring is simple, fast, and smart. A place where growing businesses connect

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That's get Roman.com slash ringer NFL for a free visit to get started. Go to get Roman.com slash ringer NFL. Up next, the ultimate riser and faller. Antonio Brown. All right. Summarizing this situation, I think, would need its own 10-hour narrative podcast. So we're not going to do that, but here's the point. He froze his feet, doing cryotherapy when he didn't wear the proper footwear.

And then plot twists. It wasn't really that he didn't show up to training camp because of that, but because he wants to wear his old helmet and the NFL and the Raiders are telling him, you can't, that's against the rules. And he's not playing. He showed up Monday, but who knows what he's going to do by the time this goes up and is published, then it could have changed four times. So the point is, this guy's a loose cannon.

He's as loose as a cannon can possibly get. How comfortable are you drafting loose cannon A-B? Well, I've mostly been avoiding him even before sort of the foot-slash-helmet debacle that's been happening over the last few weeks. Like, I just haven't been, yes, what did I say? Foot-slash helmet, that's good stuff. I've mostly been avoiding him just because I think in that range, there are guys I just like a little bit more,

and I feel a little bit more confident and I think And the range is number 22 overall wide receiver 9 Right That's a high pay That's like a mid-second So I just think

I just think that In that offense He's going from a very very high volume passing offense in Pittsburgh scored a lot of touchdowns There was already going to be A ton of regression Like potential for him

Going from Steelers to Oakland in a much worse offense, in theory, a much worse quarterback, and then add in this other stuff adds another layer of uncertainty. I was already fading him anyway. I still think he's going to play. I think he's going to start the season. But to me, it's just still a little bit rich for, I think, the regression that he's going to have this year.

Well, so here's the thing. This is where average draft position can lie. And right now his average draft position is barely changed. He's still going 22nd. there's no way that when in the next week or two or three, when that number kind of gets more accurate as way more people start doing mock drafts and real drafts, I have to believe that that's going to fall.

I just have to. So where do you believe that he's suddenly like a bargain? Because once that we were like that class of like Adam Thiel and Stefan Dix, how do you feel about them versus Antonio Brown? Yeah, I mean that would mean he falls 10 or so or whatever. How many of our spots? right now he's 21. So if he falls into like the 30s,

that's when I start getting really comfortable taking him. Because those guys in that range are a little bit riskier generally, like we were talking about before. It's just there's more risk baked in. So he doesn't have to fall far for me to start taking him. But right now, he's right after Mike Evans. If I'm sitting there with Mike Evans and Antonio Brown are on the board, I'm going Evans for sure.

Yeah, no, I mean, it's just it's about safety at that high up. And AB is many things. And it's ceiling. Well, I mean, Brown's ceilings, he could lead the league in targets and I don't think anyone would bat and I.

Yeah, but is he going to lead to the league in touchdowns? I just, I don't know, it makes me nervous. So that's kind of, what about you? What's your take on this whole thing?

Are you fading him to? I just don't, I think he's a loose cannon. I don't want him on my team. It's just, if he fell into like the 30s of the 40s, I have to think about it.

But, right. It's just as unpredictable as any recent NFL story has been. so I have no interest. Let's play this same game. If he's sitting there and the two top receivers on your board are Thielen and Brown,

who do you like more? My answer is probably neither. I'm probably taking Sony Michelle or I would take Mark and Greenland. Like Carry on Johnson or something? Yeah, no, carry on Johnson. Absolutely. Okay. What about Four Nett? I would take four net over Brown without hesitating.

Really? Without hesitating. Yeah. So that tells you how far. You think he's going to play 16 games? Sure. I don't know that. I have no idea. He also has him practice with his team, which is bad. Yeah, but on hard knocks, man, he looked like when you just watch him run on the side of the Oh my God, that's a cinematic masterpiece.

He's so fast, man. He is so fast. So is John Ross. He doesn't play. Okay. So fast. That's a really terrible example, but yes. Okay.

First of all, Tony Brown's speed is not what makes him good. What makes him good is he's the best route runner in football. Foot speed. I'm just, I'm talking more like foot speed. Yeah, well. He's ridiculous. Preferably that's helpful when you're on the field. It's a good place to use footspeed.

All right. That's fair. Let's move on. All right. Next up we got A.J. Green and the Bengals. This has just been tough. So he had an ankle injury in the opening day of training camp. The nature of the injury was wild and kind of undercovered.

The Bengals were practicing at Welcome Stadium and Dayton, Ohio. They were doing this because the NFL celebrating their 100th anniversary campaign. And Dayton, Ohio and Triangle Park was the site of the first Nassau. NFL game between not making this up. The Dayton Triangles and the Columbus Panhandles in October 1920. I know there's a lot of panhandle fans listening to us right now. Anyway, this is how Tyler Boyd, the Bengals number two receiver described the field. Quote, the turf was terrible.

I couldn't run any routes out there. I'm falling all over the ground. It was bad. It was rocks, pebbles out there. Man, it was somewhere we shouldn't have been. That is the day that A.J. Green got hurt, T. So, whoof. He had certain.

The surgery revealed other issues in his ankle. So they pushed his date past week one. It's six to eight weeks as of July 28th, which is week one-ish to week three-ish. He missed four games in his first five years of his career, but now Aegee Green has missed 13 in his past three years. His average draft position now is 52 overall, which is like wide receiver 21, which is kind of no man's land. So, D.K., what the hell do you do with Aegee Green this year?

So, yeah, we're assuming he's probably going to be out like at least. least three weeks, right? Ish. And then recovering and rehabbing. Yeah. You know, during the season. But he could be elite the second half of the year and in your fantasy playoffs or

whatever. So I've been taking him in the late, like if he's there in the late fifth and early six, that's kind of where I'm saying, okay, I'm going to take you. Like that's any earlier than that, I'm feeling pretty uncomfortable doing it.

But yeah, if he's still sitting there in the sixth round, I think he's a huge value. So that's kind of like my, that's like where I'm, targeting him. I'd prefer Tyler Boyd, who's going basically the same range of like the early 50s among like the beginning of the third wide receivers around 22, 23.

I'd prefer Boyd personally. John Ross is also day-to-day, which John Ross always seems to be day-to-day. The guys behind them are doing well in practice, but they're undrafted guys, Damien Willis, Stanley Morgan, Jr. Alex Erickson is their third guy, but it's like he's like a punt returner. I think Tyler Boyd's all they got. I think they're going to be behind a lot. I like Tyler Boyd much better than green.

I just don't want an injured guy in my team. It's just not a risk I really want to take personally. Fair enough. Next up, we got Damien Williams on the Chiefs. He was the presumed starter. Had a bad week last week. He was demoted from featureback to running back by committee if he was ever going to be that at all.

And then also had a hamstring injury for a speed guy, so that's tough. Yeah, so just the timeline here, offensive coordinator, Eric Benamy, Benamy. Beenemy. Beenemy. in May, late May, said Damien Williams is our starter, period. We expect him to excel in that role. And then that has changed over the last couple months.

Andy Reid on August 9th, so about 10 days ago, said, I did this a little bit back when I was in Philly, kind of a running back by committee deal, and we had some success with it. So basically, he's sort of changed that. We don't know exactly what's going to happen. It sounds like they're open to using these different guys, quite a bit more. Carlos Hyde and Darwin Thompson. Carlos Hyde had a fumble

in the game in the preseason game last week, so that obviously doesn't help his case. And Darwin Thompson, meanwhile, has looked amazing. So I personally am much less confident in Damian Williams having like a bell cow role this year. Obviously in the Chiefs offense, any running back that gets like volume is going to be a huge fantasy factor.

I just don't know if it's going to be Williams. I could see this being like a half, halfway through the season, Darwin Thompson is kind of like getting the most snaps or something like that. So Williams was already kind of a guy that it was fading and the last few weeks has not changed that for me. I'm just like, I'm not super stoked on him going into the season. Somewhere Craig is doing victory laps because he was happy to point that Damien Williams had never had more than 50 rushes in his season and he didn't believe it'd be durable.

Now the fact is Williams is a speed. guy, he's 92nd percentile in the 40-yard dash, he was 4.45. But he had hamstring pole. And hamstring pole, so speed guys, is really tough. It lingers. It just snaps your main skill. Andy Reid's also really been talking up Darwin Thompson. He's going undrafted.

So Craig loves Carlos Hyde. But my God, Darwin Thompson, you know, maybe not initially in like the first few weeks, but it seems like by the middle of the year, Darwin Thompson seems poised to be there. But yeah, that could be a committee role and not really be quite anywhere near as the chief's job might not be as big of a deal as it was for the last few years. Yeah, Damien Williams right now, his ADP is 27. He's a second, he's a second rounder. And the entire offseason,

do you feel comfortable with that? I don't know. The entire off season, he was one of the biggest ranking disparities between ESPN and Yahoo, the whole year. He was someone that was early 20s and some sites, mid-40s and others. And who knows whether they would be right or wrong, because the injury really, I think, puts it back to him being in the mid-40s for me.

and that's where I think you should go. Yeah. All right, before we move on, let's take a quick break to talk about Hotel Tonight. Here's an insider travel secret from Hotel Tonight. There are tons of empty hotel rooms out there just waiting to be booked. Hotel Tonight teams up with awesome hotels to help them sell these rooms and then passes those savings along to you.

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So go to Hotel Tonight.com or download the app to unlock your daily drop. Next up, though, we got Carry on Johnson. This is someone, I mean, there's a lot of fallers we're talking about. Here's a riser. We have at least one riser on this. Theoretic is gone. He was this, I don't know what the vulture is, because there's vultures are for guys who steal touchdowns. I don't know what the vulture is term for it is for guys who just take snaps at passing downs.

We need a better word for that. If someone has an idea, please let us know. but Theoretic played 38.6% of Detroit snaps last year, which was the most among running backs on their team. 74 targets, 61 catches, 384 receiving yards. Gone. They cut them. Daryl Beaver is their offensive coordinator now. Sorry.

Daryl Bevel. Daryl Beville. Your beloved, former Seahawks coordinator. Beloved. They want to run more. Carry on Johnson, I think, could be a real three down back. Behind him is C.J. Anderson and Zach Zener and a bunch of nobodies. So I think Carry on Johnson is suddenly one of the best bets to become

a three down back and like, oh yeah, that's a top 14 guy next year you can get in the 30s. Love carry on this year. Big riser for me. Yeah, I mean, it all comes down to so his ADP has gone up by about 10 spots in the last month. He's 28th overall right now, RB14. It all comes down to, though,

his usage, as you alluded to, is he going to be a third down guy? Is he going to pick up those uber valuable pass-catching targets? Because targets, especially in PPR leagues, are worth more than rushes. You know, catches especially, obviously, you get yards plus a point for the catch.

It's a huge, huge part of scoring in PPR. And so, yeah, if he can be the full, like, the third, like, first early downs and third down, like, if he could do all that, we're not even talking, like, potential to gain goal line, you know, targets are carries, I should say. But he, yeah, he's got elite potential. But I'm still a little concerned that we're not going to. see that. I mean, I think so far in the preseason, you know, C.J. Anderson has been featured a little bit on third downs, which is a little bit weird. If C.J. Anderson starts vulturing Caryon Johnson,

I will lose. I will be out of my gourd. I'm kind of worried that's what's going to happen. I mean, you know. I'll lose my mind. And then Ty Johnson is another guy, rookie, a six-rounder that they picked this year, who's really explosive, good pass catcher. He was a really good returner in college, all that. So he could eat into Carri-on Johnson's workload a little bit. So I think obviously losing Theo Riddick in those 74 targets is a huge deal but I'm just a little bit worried that carry-on's not going to get all those it's still it's not a clear-cut situation to me what is clear-cut these days D-Gre? That's true nothing is yeah but I'm

personally haven't I don't have a lot of shares of carry-on Johnson I just still a little bit concerned about how it's going to all play out plus it's a low volume probably slow offense and so yeah next up we got the 49ers this backfield is not clear cut either. Muddled. We've got Tavon Coleman, who is their big free agent signing. Jerich McKinnon, who was their big free agent signing last year, and then suffered a torn ACL in August,

and then Matt Breda, who is just a tough son of a gun, who just had an ankle spray in last year, just played through it. So McKenon still not been cleared for action and might be like a physically unable to perform candidate, which means he would not be able to return for the first six weeks of the year. At least. He might even be an high R candidate. I'm not sure exactly what's going on with all of this.

So what do you make of the 49ers backfield? Because this was an unclear situation that's becoming clear and clearer. Yeah. So to me it looks like Coleman and Brayda are the best bets by far. And right now, Brayda is by far a better value. He's RB 46 in PPR. ADP is 121, which is about 60, nearly 60 points or 60 spots after 10 Coleman. Coleman is looking like the starter, but Brayda is a pass catcher potentially, very explosive player we saw last year.

So, yeah, Brada right now is rising. I think Coleman's kind of stayed relatively stagnant. But yeah, Brita is kind of a guy that a lot of people are saying, oh, he's a really good later round target, really, really potential high value guy in the later round. So he's the one that's interesting. Coleman's going in the 60s right now. Can you paint for me a landscape where Tevin Coleman ends up. being the best fantasy pick of 2019. The best pick of everyone?

Value. That Kevin Coleman at 65th ends up being a league winner. I mean, yeah, there's a, if he gets like 70% of the workload and that offense and that offense improves a lot, like he could be, yeah, that could be a really, really good value. Here's why I ask, because in 2016, when Kyle Shannon was running the Falcons offense, obviously the Niners, not the Falcons, but Devante Freeman was the sixth best running back, and Tevin Coleman was the 17th best. Now you have Tevin Coleman probably having a bigger role and more of a hybrid

between what he and Freeman were doing in 2016. And I don't think that, I'm not saying he will be the best pick, but I don't think that the 49ers in 2019 have to be the Falcons in 2016 for there to be an amazing value with these two dudes. Yeah. Yeah, and I agree. I think I like those two guys a lot too. I think they're good players.

I don't know if Coleman is, I don't think we saw last year that he didn't prove to me that he's like a three-down guy. So I think it's going to be somewhat of a committee. But yeah, I think, you know, they're both very interesting to me. And I think that the 49ers could be a very good offense going forward. The downside is the think the 49ers collect all those running backs because they also want their opponent to have no idea who they're going to use every given week. So that makes it really tough for fantasy.

That's the downside for me, is you don't know. Yeah. Next up, we have a Maya Copa for me. We have the Steelers number two job behind Juju Smith-Schuster. Dante Moncrief and James Washington have been competing. for it. My bad. I truly believed

that James Washington who was their second round pick last year would win this job. He will not. In fact, it seems already over. All indications

are Dante Moncrief has already won the number two job. He broke his ring finger on like the team's first padded practice, but he's back and he's fine. And as Graham Barfield

of NFL.com noted, the Steelers first team played 14 snaps on their most recent game. Juju had 13 of the first team snaps. Dante Monkker. Creve had nine, and then James Washington had one.

So I still believe in the Steelers number two receiver. I think they're going to not take all of Brown's targets and give it to him, but obviously, but they're going to spread him around. But he'll get the most and take my love from James Washington a couple of weeks ago, spread it around. Dante Moncrief and Jujo will be on the outside, and then Slot will be kind of a mix of Ryan Switzer, Eli Rogers, and maybe James Washington. Here's the thing, though.

It's funny that you say this because I think you're right. Like Moncrief is probably going to be the number two or whatever. But when you said that you really like James Washington, I was pretty skeptical because at that point, he hadn't done anything in camp, but he's actually looked really good in the last two, in the last two preseason games. Now, granted, you know,

it was a little bit later in the games at points and, you know, whatever. There's the level of competition argument there, but he's looked really, really good. He had a couple of really nice deep balls. So I'm not saying, I don't think you're necessarily, I don't think you necessarily need to do a whole me a couple of years. I think he potentially could

he could eventually ascend to that number two spot. I thought he would win the job. And Dante Moncrief has won it. In a dynasty league, I'd prefer James Washington. If it was like week eight forward, I might even prefer James Washington, maybe, but like I don't think James Washington is going to get that role. And I think Dante Moncrief's the guy to target there.

Fair enough. But I like James Washington is kind of my point. I think you're right. I think you're right. Thanks, TK. I appreciate that, man. Next up, we're going to Houston, D.K. So on the same day, Kiki Kiki,

who was a popular sleeper for the, he's the Texan slot receiver. He injured both hamstrings last year and played just six games but was excellent in the games he played. And August 8th, he had an ankle injury

that was not major reportedly, but who knows. It looked really bad. But the same day, the Texans traded for Duke Johnson, who was the Browns running back, who was dissatisfied and had kind of a beef

with Baker Mayfield that was becoming a thing and had wanted to trade all offseason. And then finally got it. Now, Duke is one of the most athletic, maybe the most versatile running back in the league or among the handful of, and he can play in the slot. So that happened on the same day.

So what do you make of Coutis injury and then Duke Johnson being in Houston now? Johnson immediately becomes one of the more intriguing mid to late round picks, right? I think because we don't know exactly how he's going to be used. Like he said, he can play in the slot. He's a very good receiver. Maybe he inherits all those Coutis targets or a lot of them. Maybe they run with two running backs or whatever. Maybe he's the starter over Lamar Miller.

I mean, they gave a third round pickup. He has to be active for 10 games for it to turn into third round pick, but it's probably going to happen. So that third round pig is, that's not cheap, you know? That and the fifth was Antonio Brown. Right. That's potential as like your starter. So obviously I'm not a huge, like I'm not really high on Lamar Miller.

It's going to be, you know, we'll have to see how the things kind of shake out with, you know, the Texans backfield. Is anyone high on Lamar Miller? Have you found anyone who's high on Lamar Miller? No, because he's like the definition of average starting running back, right? He's there. So, yeah, so I think, you know, I think Johnson is super intriguing. I had him, you know, I picked him a couple times when he was kind of having the issues with Cleveland hoping he would get traded to a good team or a team that was a good fit for him. And I think this was a good fit in the sense that he might get some pretty solid volume, some solid fantasy volume in Houston. So the Texans ran the ball. more than all but three teams last year. So it's not like, you know, they're like a pass first necessarily team.

He could get some volume on the ground. But I think he, you know, more so is going to be a pass catcher for them. And the Q. T's injury is another X factor that I think is just going to be really interesting. So I really excited to see what happens with Johnson. I think worst case is he doesn't even play the 10 games and doesn't even net them the third rounder. And I think his best case is that he usurps Tariq Cohen as like the premier pass catching back behind James White. because I think that they truly could pull that off with him this year. Yeah, that would be, yeah, I think that's a good ceiling floor scenario.

Next up, we have the Dolphins and Kalin Belage. We touched on Kenyon Drake is in a walking boot. Players are splitting reps with him at practice, or sorry, players are splitting reps at practice before the injury happened, and Kenyon Drake hadn't really secured the starting job like it had been assumed. Then he gets hurt. Now he's in a walking boot with the foot injury. He's expected to be back for the season,

but missing the rest of August is not good. Kalyn Belage, another guy like Drake, who was not really, going back to college, had a ton of volume, but a pretty good candidate to get half of those dolphins carries, far more talented than the rest of the guys they have there. So right now he's going,

I mean, a month ago, he's going 175th, so just completely undrafted in fantasy drafts. Now he's like 117. That's probably still too low because I don't think Drake is going to just get the job when it comes back. Right. So I like Belage.

lot for where he's at. And I actually think that that has not risen enough based on Drake's degree. It feels to me like the Dolphins backfield is a litmus test or like a Roarshack test. Like you either love Belage or you love Drake. There's no middle ground. Speaking of DK, DK Metcalf. Seahawks wired with DK. I'm going to let you have. This is the only other DK. I'll let you take it. I mean, he was slowly, I think he had been rising. He had been, you know, his ADP slowly gradually going up. A lot of positive reports from camp. Everything I'd heard was that he's doing amazing in training camp and all that. And then he missed yesterday's Seahawks preseason week two game.

Turns out he is undergoing knee surgery. And they're very, very vague about it. We have no indication of what is happening. Pete Carroll is bullish on it. He's optimistic, but that means absolutely nothing because Pete Carroll cannot be trusted when it comes to injury indications. And so, yeah, I don't know. Metcalf knee injury, you know, there was some health issues in college that made him miss games. That was kind of one of the reasons people were a little bit low on him. So this is all very bad stuff. So I think Metcalf is going to plummet here. Let me cut through your Seahawks fandom. I hope D.HDK. Metcalf has a wonderful NFL career. But from his rookie season, in terms of a fantasy football lens, he will

do nothing. He will do nothing of note this year. He's just not... You're saying that's going to happen? Yes, I hate to do that, but I hate to be definitive, but it's like, I can't think of a player who profiles less as a year one contributor because fundamentally, the thing he has not shown himself able to do is just get open quickly. Those are generally... That's not his game. That's not his game, though. Well, that's why I know, but like, that's really important in the NFL. And I just don't think that he's going to be able to contribute. Could he have some amazing 70 or a touchdown a couple of times?

Yeah, but he won't be in your lineup for that. And I don't think that his play will not be consistent enough that you're like, oh yeah, I'm going to start DK Metcalf at Flex in week 12. Like that I can't envision. He can have moments, but they won't be predictable. There will be no rhyme or reason to his production. I hate to say this, but you're probably right. Sick.

Jim, can we record that save it for posterity for all future moments? Oh, man. That hurt my heart. I hurt my soul to say that, Danny. But yeah, you're probably right. I mean, like, look at last year. A lot of people probably were really reticent to even start Lockett, and he had 10 touchdowns.

You know, later in the year, maybe they started him because he was really showing out. But it's a low-volume offense. He's probably really dependent on touchdowns. He's not going to get a ton of targets. So, yeah, I think you're probably right. I am flying high. We're going to end on that note. D.K., thank you for saying I'm right.

I've been waiting for like a full year for that. Thank you, Jim. Best of luck to Craig at Raiders Camp. Yeah. We'll see you guys later this week. Hotel Tonight shows you incredible deals at cool hotels you'll actually want to stay at. Score an extra amazing deal with Hotel Tonight's daily drop feature. Unlock a special deal at a hotel selected just for you and snag it within 15 minutes.

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