The Ringer NFL Show - “Rule 53,” Dak Prescott’s Injury, and a Rare Tuesday Night NFL Game | The Ringer NFL Show

Episode Date: October 14, 2020

Warren Sharp and Chris Vernon recap the Bill-Titans game and offer their biggest takeaways. They also discuss the impact schedule changes could have on teams, how much Dak Prescott is worth spread-wise, and league trends and characteristics they are seeing five weeks in. Hosts: Warren Sharp and Chris Vernon Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today on the Ringer NFL show, we're going to be talking about the biggest takeaways from the Bills and the Titans game, how schedule changes might affect teams, and whether or not the Cowboys are dead without Dak Prescott. We'll do it after these words. Today's episode of the Ringer NFL show on the Ringer podcast network is brought to you by State Farm. Getting great car and home insurance from State Farm at a surprisingly great rate, that's like drafting a player that becomes an all-pro, the real deal. State Farm agents provide personalized, service so you can customize your insurance to fit your needs like a GM putting together their

very own roster. You need a team that supports you and State Farm's got a great one. In addition to agents, the award-winning mobile app helps manage coverage, pay bills, file claims, and more. With a great price and even greater service, State Farm goes from strength to strength. Choose insurance that always brings its A-game. When you want the real deal, like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Welcome to the our NFL show. I'm Chris Vernon and joining me as he does every Wednesday is Warren Sharp. What's up, Warren? What is up, Chris? How did you like Tuesday night football? It's pretty crazy, but definitely something interesting to mix up the schedule with, I guess. We don't get Thursday night, so we got Tuesday instead. I will say, I think I enjoyed it much more than

Josh Norman. Oh my God, that was pretty bad. I mean, not only was he getting picked on throughout the game just for regular play, but then he's become an internet sensation in a bad way. Which would you rather have happened to you as we start this NFL show? As you know, I do the NBA show also. Would you rather get dunked on and fall to the ground and be stood over or stiff-armed by Derek Henry in that manner that took place last night? No doubt about a dunked-on, because first of all, that wouldn't be surprising to anybody. I'm only six foot. So it's not like, you know, everybody in the NBA couldn't dunk on me. But secondly, if I was a real NBA player and it was still kind of shocking the way that I got dunked on, like I feel like that happens to somebody every single

night of the NBA. Like every single night somebody seems to be getting dunked on in some capacity or another. Some might be more vicious than others. But like this was a stiff arm from hell. that sent a dude flying through the air. And I think that that is way worse, just visually, and what people are going to remember. I mean, Josh Norman's had a great career, especially in Carolina. Some of the things he did, obviously, not quite as successful in Washington. And certainly, Buffalo is getting off to a little bit more of a difficult start. But he's a vet who's been around and done some great things in the league.

But this is going to be something that people are going to remember. remember and I don't feel like somebody's going to remember a random dude getting dunked on. You have to, you have to dive at the guy's legs. It's the only chance you, and hang on for dear life. I mean, that is, that is the lesson here. He's done this now. He's emasculated like five guys in his NFL career already. And it just sets the internet on fire. It's just the worst. I mean, I appreciate you're going to try to tackle him. But when you get vaulted into the air for five yards, it's, it's not a great look. Well, the funny part is, like, the stiff arm itself was worse than the actual gain that Derek Henry had. I think you only gained like a yard or two on the play.

But like the whole sideline, I saw some guys in the replays, like some of the old linemen, the backup old linemen that are on the sideline were reacting the same way they might if the team just won a Super Bowl. And all that happened is a gain a couple yards, but it was like the visual visceration of this other player on the defense getting just destroyed. really jacked them up. All right. So look, there was an actual football game that went on last night. And the Bills had been one of the really good stories, especially Josh Allen, these first couple of weeks of this season. And they ran into a buzzsaw in the Titans last night and the rare Tuesday night football game.

What were your biggest takeaways from watching the Titans play the Bills? Okay, a couple of things. The first thing was Josh Allen did not look. And that was a bit of a surprise because the Titans were playing without their top two cornerbacks. So you would have assumed that they would have had more success passing the football. Part of that, I believe, was the defense that Mike Vrabel had the Titans playing. You know, Mike Vrable brought these guys out and they probably played them a little bit like Buffalo, sorry, like Bill Belichick and the Patriots would have played them.

A little bit of zone. It looked like they were forcing Josh Allen to dink and dunk. underneath and you know he's accurate for some of those passes but inaccurate on others um over the course of the season though prior to that he was great playing against zone i mean he had more success and higher yards per attempt when he passed against zone than he did against man his EPA against zone was plus 0.3 2 which is very good uh his EPA against man was plus 0.5 6 so he was better against I got to stop you. What is EPA? Okay, EPA is expected points added.

Basically looks at where you are based on down distance yards to go, you know, where you are on the field, and then where you get to on the very next play, down distance yards to go where you are on the field. And it evaluates how much closer you are to the end zone and how much more likely you are to score a point based upon that field position. and game situation, and then it sees how much it changed from the prior position. So it basically, EPA is just the more EPA, the better the play was. The less, and EPA can be negative in cases.

And so the worse your EPA is, the worst that play was that you just had. And so he was better against man, but that was because he's thrown nine touchdowns against man prior to this game and only two touchdowns against zone. But he was still good passing the ball. against zone. He was just he was just scoring more on man. So I was a little surprised by the fact he

wasn't still able to have some success even against the zone coverage that Brabes was using. All right. And so what it does tell us just from your analyses on this is that this wasn't oh, the Titans gave you the blueprint for slowing down

Josh Allen. He had been hot at the beginning of the season. You would say they didn't give us some kind of a blueprint as to slow down Josh Allen and he's going to see this all the time now. Rather, you'd think it was more of a one-off given the sample size earlier was that he had been successful against the same type of defense. Yeah, I don't think that this is going to, he was playing, first of all, in the first half of the game, I don't think he even targeted Cole Beasley once. So I'm not quite sure what they were doing there. They were also, I felt like running the ball a little bit too much. They saw that

Jeffrey Simmons, the Titans starting defensive tackle, one of the best guys. on that team defensively was out for the game. And I feel like they were trying too much to test the run game. And what Bill Belichick's always done, and this is the way I believe more coaches should be looking at things, is you could test the run game. But if you're not having a lot of success there, you know what you've got in the passing game,

use the passing game a little bit more often. And I felt like they tested the run game. They didn't have a lot of early success. I want to say they had, let me look at the numbers here because I can pull up the first half statistics only. In the first half, Singletary had seven rushes for 11 yards, and Yeldin had three rushes for 10 yards. I mean, we're talking about as a team, they were averaging 2.3 yards per carry. I just felt like they went a little bit to run heavy on early downs to start the game.

I don't necessarily, you know, we can credit the Titans here for a great game plan. There's two other things that I want to touch on, and one of them relates to, early downs and your ability to bypass third down. But we could talk about that in a second because I know you want to mention something from one of the things that Jay Feely said. But another thing that I want to get to in this one, which is like the point I think we're going to make

after the Jay Feely comment relates to the fact that the bills were in a very difficult situation here from a scheduling perspective that I don't think enough people are factoring into this game and their reaction to this game. All right, let's get to those Jay Feely comments, which is he didn't call it the rule of 53, but this has come up before. And I'm interested to hear if you have had conversations with coaches and personnel about this. This whole idea that

if you have 53 rushing attempts plus completion. So if I took my rushing attempts and I took my completions and I added them up, if I got to 53, that that would equal a win. Now, obviously, I don't have the wherewithal to go look that up. right? I just have to take that at face by like, oh, okay, it sounds right. You know, like, I mean, I guess somebody else has probably done the research on this. And so it's, it's one of those things that, you know, when somebody says it, it could just become widely accepted. Is this so that if at the end of the game, I can look up your, my, my team's rushing attempts and their completions and I add them up, I get to 53 that, like, what's the win rate on that?

So here's the thing. Okay. The rule of 53 is purely correlation. It is not causation. You don't otherwise, every offense generally has around 50 plus plays and you could just run the ball every single time because the completion is a little bit harder to do. We could just run the ball every single play and throw screen passes every single play like high completion rate passes and we could get the 53. That is not how you actually win the game. That's something that you can look at in retrospect and do some modeling and just say, oh, yeah, well, if we added these two, like, is it 51? No, it's actually, let's see what it is with 52. Okay, here's the win rate with 52.

What is it with 53? Oh, okay, so at least 53 is a really good win rate. This is all pure correlation after the fact. And I have had coaches that have play callers in the league. recently talked to me about this. So I've heard some commentators like some old school commentators who were in the league with like Bill Parcells and those types of guys when such antiquated ideas came about and, you know, math was less evolved and people weren't digging into all the numbers a little bit more. And we didn't have advanced analytics for football and we didn't have play charting

that was public and a better ability to break down the football game. And so we had to go with just, oh, well, if Bill Parcell says something like this, then it's probably true, right? And so, you know, he had a guy like chart it all down and track it all and say, oh, well, in games that we had at least 53, we went 19 and 1. And so this is a good thing for us to do. But we know more now. And we shouldn't have this mindset now.

But I have still, so I can, I guess I want to say that, I understand why some old school commentators still bring it up. They need to learn that this is not an appropriate way to coach and play games. But there are still actual coaches in the league that have thought these things and have discussed them publicly within the last 18 months. Okay. And I've had conversations about it with some of those guys within the last 18 months. And I've said, this is quite plainly, this is dumb. this is causation.

Hey, this is, I want to make you laugh though. So I was like, you know what? I'll just look up some random game. So I looked up last year's Super Bowl and I can see how this happens, right? Because you hear that and then you say, okay, I'll just go look up some random game. So how about last year's Super Bowl? Kansas City had 29 rushing attempts, 26 completions. That's 55.

All right. So they got to the 53. Meanwhile, San Francisco had 22 rushing attempts, and they had 20 completions, 42. So, hey, and now I just look up one game. I look at it and I go, I'll be damned. You know, maybe there is something to do this. And if you, exactly, and if you go back and you look up a lot of games, you're going to find that that same thing is true.

But let's think logically about how you get there. The way that you're even able to run a play in the NFL is, obviously, the other team gives you the ball right on a punt or a kickoff. So you get the ball. You're given three downs unless you turn it over before you have to punt the ball back. So you have plays. The way that you earn more plays than you should otherwise get is by gaining first downs. And the way that you gain by game first downs is by being efficient. The more first downs that you can get, the more likely it is that you're going to be able to run additional plays, the more likely it is that you're going to get 53 rushes and completions. And the way that you do that is you have to play the game the right way. So the problem

is coaches have this mindset of, okay, I know that if I get this by the end of the game, I'll probably win. So let me start building that from the start of the game. That's completely the wrong way to look at it. What you need to do from the start of the game is play the game the right way. And in order to play the game the right way, the optimal goal is to avoid third downs. And the way that you avoid third downs is by calling efficient plays on first and second down to attempt to bypass third down, to continue to progress the ball down the field, which will ultimately allow you to score points, which will ultimately allow you to build a lead by halftime, which will ultimately be more correlated to you actually having success in that game, which will cause the other team in the

second half to change their strategies, which will allow you to put them in a less efficient position to have success, which will give you the ball back more often, which will cause you to have more plays in the second half with a lead that you can do more things with. And hopefully, you are still trying to be somewhat aggressive and creative on early downs to continue to keep the ball away from your opponent while progressing in down the field and scoring points. So that is actually the way that you record and are able to gain these rushing attempts and completions. It is the byproduct of an efficient early down offense, which begins early in a football game. And we actually saw some of that play out in this game against the Buffalo Bills,

where we saw one team and the announcers kept commenting on the fact, oh, my God, the bills are so great on third down. This is unbelievable. They keep converting all of these third downs. And sure enough, you know, Josh Allen was ridiculous when he was passing on third downs. And they had 13 first downs on third downs. They had, they were 13 of 17 on third down. Now, I didn't really see any of these graphics, but you remember, Chris, you remember the old school days when they used to flash up the graphics packages and it took up the entirety of the screen because the font was so massive. And they just displayed like the game reset and they showed you what each team was. They had two columns, one for the, you know, the bills won for the Titans. And it would have said what each team was

on third down. You remember those huge graphic packages? Okay. So they used to talk, they would put that up there, big, bold font, 13 of 17 for the Buffalo Bills and six of 10 for the Titans. And what I always tell people is, that's great that you're good on third down. That's great that you're 13 to 17. I'm happy for you because it's better to be good on third down than it is to be bad on third down. But the key in those graphics, don't focus on the numerator. Focus on the denominator. You're getting forced into 17 third downs. That is terrible.

You have to, like the Titans had 25 first downs in that game and were forced into third down only 10 times. That is far superior than the bill is having 23 first downs, but being forced. forced into third down 17 times. That right there shows how ineffective the bill's offense was on early downs, how superior the Titans was. You know, this is fascinating because I saw one of those, Warren, on Sunday. It was, oh, it was Rathosberger. And they flashed up these like these 12 for 12 or 13 for 13.

I mean, I'm not getting the numbers exactly right, but it was like 12 for 12 with 130 yards and two touchdowns on third down, right? which obviously you see that. And they were using it as a, you think Ben Rathesberger's done? Look at these numbers on third down. Your point would be, yeah, it's awesome that he was 100% on third down, but why the hell is he in third down so much?

Right. It's definitely better to be good on third down than it is to be bad, but it is more ideal, especially towards winning a game to avoid third down. So the rule of thumb here is I was disappointed to hear Jay Feeley talk about this rule of 53, it needs to be eviscerated and eliminated from the thought process within the league as well as those commenting on it because I'm so happy that we have the advent of Twitter where more people are on there during games and can actually hear from people that are knowledgeable about things and have that help influence their thought process about football rather than the

average fan becoming dumber and dumber by listening to commentators that don't understand how to efficiently play the game or, you know, because we're able to comment like, why the fuck is this coach doing this? And we're able to like provide actual analysis on it. Whereas these guys, granted, like they have other jobs. They're trying to talk about the game. They've got so many other things. They're trying to weave into the discussion that maybe they can't focus on as many things as we can when we can be ultra-critical about the play calling or a decision-making at home. from the luxury of just sitting here and researching something and being able to speak about it. But the problem is that they have such a big pulpit and a large audience that they're able

to get reach with what they're doing on there. We just have to eliminate that type of discussion from the commentary of these games. But more importantly, we have to get rid of it from within the NFL. And I think we're getting closer and closer to doing that. Let's talk about that, Bill's Titans, just a little bit more in the sense that. it was a changed game. So this gives us the opportunity to talk about these changed games. And I know that when we started this show, for the very beginning, you were big on schedule analysis.

And now I'm wondering, as we have gotten these games be changed, the schedule is turned around, are any of the teams, when you're doing the schedule analysis, are any of the teams affected by this in a positively or, you, negative way that they are moving one game that would have been played on this date to another date. And does that matter in terms of strength of opponent? And does it screw up all of your schedule analysis that you have done prior to when they are moving around the games? Or is it just a matter of, look, you're going to play the same teams. It's just on different dates. Does when the teams play actually matter? It absolutely actually matters. Now, in terms of my general schedule analysis, looking at who's played the most difficult schedule or the easiest schedule and what opponent do you have upcoming and where are your matchup edges and, you know, are you facing a much easier run defense than you've played the prior four weeks and those types of things? None of that is affected. But what is affected is actually how it impacts these teams and their ability to win games. And it's disproportionately impacting certain teams rather than others.

So you take a team that had zero COVID issues like the Pittsburgh Steelers or like the Buffalo Bills and you force them into these difficult situations. That is not helpful. Now, I don't even understand, Chris. I mean, I heard Roger Goodell told Jay Feely that the Tennessee Titans did absolutely nothing wrong and they followed all the protocols. And then after the game, you've got Ryan Tannahill and Taylor LeWan talking about, well, it's us against the world. You know, everybody's saying all these mean things about us online about this.

And I'm thinking, like, wait a second, did I just enter the Twilight Zone here? I thought that it was reported that these guys were holding unsolicited practices outside the facility that they weren't supposed to do. Like, was all that just a total lie? I mean, like, I don't even understand what's happening here anymore. I was under the assumption and the impression that these guys were violating protocols that the league was going to. penalize them tremendously and all the sudden Roger Goodell saying they did absolutely nothing wrong

and followed every single protocol and Mike Vrable's coming out. Like last night's game and the commentary on that after the fact during it was either like the biggest spin zone that I've ever seen trying to sweep things under the rug or every single media report the prior week was total horseshit and a complete lie. But like something doesn't jive here at all. with that commentary. Yeah. And, well,

let me ask you because speaking of that, I am on the side of the NFL is just doing everything they possibly can to keep this thing going. And, you know, I don't,

you'd hate to believe that they're nefarious acts going on, but I certainly, this is a league that had to, you know, Will Smith made a friggin' movie concussion. You know what I mean? Like,

They had to be called to the carpet. We were having, like, courtroom hearings over them dealing with guys' health issues after they were done playing. And it took forever for them to admit that, hey, 250-pound guys running 4-2-40s, running into each other head first is probably not the best thing for your brain, right? Like, it took us, like, bullying them into admitting that that was the case. That being said, with all of this COVID stuff and the game's being moved around, and games being canceled or whatever else.

And then I don't know if you saw this warm, but yesterday, I feel like this was kind of underreported. The chief medical officer of the NFL, he's a guy named Dr. Allen Stills. And he was interviewed and they asked him, you know, given that these games are having to be moved around, given that they have had different players and teams test positive and you're just trying to get by and get the schedule done if you can. they asked him about, you know, hey, should they consider maybe a bubble environment, which is certainly not outlandish considering the NHL, the NBA, the WNBA, the MLS, in all manner of leagues, including soccer, did this with unbelievable results.

And the NFL, on the other hand, is repeatedly, they said they've been considering a bubble for the postseason, especially after their positive test, but some, like their chief medical officer, still have some concerns about the bubbles effect on teams. Here's what he said. I think we all have to recognize there are no perfect solutions, he told reporters in a video conference. First of all, a bubble is not going to keep out all infections.

You still have other individuals that come in and out, service worker security, other personnel. We've known from other experiences that those individuals can be affected, So simply being at a bubble doesn't keep us safe. We still have to do all these measures of mitigation with PPE, with identification of symptoms, with testing. Something that's not discussed when people talk about a bubble is the human and emotional and behavioral health toll that it takes on people.

I mean, like, I don't even want to read the rest. It's all nonsense. It really is. It's nonsense. I mean, I just covered an entire NBA season that had to finish in the whole season ended up taking 355 days. Guys were in a bubble environment for three to four months and not one positive test while they were there.

You saw the WNBA do the same thing. You saw the NHL do the same thing. And now this guy comes, I mean, like, what are we talking about service workers? Like, bro, we've been through, like, he's acting like other leagues haven't done this with immense success. And so it is, when we kind of turn this around, Warren, I'll just say, I don't want to think that like nefarious things are going on regarding the NFL and covering this up or covering that up. But like this just complete write off of what other sports have done to enable them to complete their season and enable them to not have positive tests is. truly unbelievable. Unbelievable.

Well, so a number of reactions here. Number one, a bubble absolutely would help limit things, but it's probably unfeasible to do that for the entirety of the season or we would have already been there. I mean, they could have tried to do it. We couldn't do it. So we are where we are. And for the most part, by and large, most of these teams are following the protocols to the T and we are not having, I mean, I'm actually surprised.

It's, we're entering week six and we've only really had the one Titans outbreak as being like this really terrible situation to date, right? We had a little bit with New England. We had a couple of random guys on a couple of other teams, but for the most part in terms of like spreading it throughout a team and then to opponents, we at, luckily we haven't had that yet. So I think by and large the NFL is doing a great job. Should they bubble it up for the playoffs? Yes. And you know, I remember watching the, uh, the NBA when like LeBron was about to head down to Miami. And I think he like posted something on Instagram like, I'm, I feel like I'm ready to go get locked away in prison or something like that. And I'm like, dude, you're going to a fucking resort. And yeah,

I mean, it's, it's tough because you're away from your family. So I don't know what that's like. But, um, I'm more or less quarantining myself, uh, just to be safe for, for my family too. So like, at any rate, we're talking about, it's a different, it's a different mindset here. But, you know, I think, look, the teams are doing a pretty good job, but there are unfair situations. Like, I'm just looking back, Chris, at the Buffalo Bills. The Buffalo Bills were at a massive disadvantage. I don't think people are factoring in because they didn't know, even on Sunday, if they're

actually playing Tennessee or they're going to be playing. on Thursday against the Chiefs. Two totally different teams, two totally different quarterbacks that you're preparing for, two totally different defenses that you're going to have to go up against. And you know what this entire time the Tennessee Titans were preparing for? They were simply preparing for the Buffalo Bills. The entirety of the, they knew that their game against the Pittsburgh Steelers was canceled. They knew that their next opponent was going to be the Buffalo Bills.

They had plenty of time to mindset the fact that we are preparing for the Buffalo Bills. bills. We're expecting that we're going to play them on Tuesday, and that's the only thing we have to worry about right now. Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills are sitting up in Buffalo, like, well, should we do we fly down to Tennessee? When are we going to go down there? Are they going to have more tests? And guess what? If we find out on Sunday night that they are testing positive or Monday morning, then we're actually not flying down there and we're hosting the chiefs in three days. So, like, they were at a massive disadvantage for that game, trying to prepare multiple game plans

and trying to figure out what they were going to do and who they were really going to play. They get down there in Tennessee Monday night knowing, okay, we're actually playing these guys. And I just felt like they were off from the jump in that game. Now they have to play the Kansas City Chiefs on a short week of rest. And none of this was their fault, right?

They didn't do anything wrong. I know that this is happening to other teams where stuff isn't their fault that they're getting screwed, like the Pittsburgh Steelers had to all of a sudden have their buy. And I think the fans, if you're thinking, oh, well, you know, this team, what's a big deal? They get a buy a couple weeks earlier. The point is they're practicing. A buy you're supposed to actually have days off and you're not supposed to do anything.

When all of a sudden you get an unscheduled buy that you're not playing this team and now you're playing somebody else, for some of these teams, you, okay, so we practice for a few days. Now we just don't have to play Sunday. now we got to start game planning for our next opponent the following week, but we didn't really save our bodies or refresh anything. And now we have, now we don't have that by week nine that we thought we were going to have, right? So it is a disadvantage for certain teams and it is an advantage for others when they really don't have to be put in a difficult situation. And let me be clear. I'm not saying they should move it all to a bubble now, but you can't be writing off circumstances in which you would be, that would enable you to finish the season.

And Warren, we haven't had the big problem, as you say yet. But if we just look, you could even say, and college football and players are obviously much more irresponsible. I was more irresponsible in college. You're more irresponsible. And you feel invisible. But like, there's a huge college football game this weekend between Florida and LSU that's canceled because there's 19.

positive test for Florida after they just played Texas A&M in basically a full stadium this past weekend, right? And, you know, I just watched earlier in the week, Houston, the University of Houston, they just played their first friggin football game of the year. Like everybody else started like a month ago. They just played their first because they had such a problem. Baylor, they're trying to figure this out. They're having to shut their stuff down. Like so what happens when the NFL team comes back and they got 18 positive tests, then what? And I'm not saying that hoping that it happens. I'm saying that you've got to at least,

we have to at least consider that it's plausible. And I don't like that the guy that is supposed to be in charge of giving them their ideas for how they can do this is one that is sitting there saying, oh, well, the guy that brings the room service could have COVID, so that doesn't make a bubble safe. Like, shut the, like, really. Like, come on, bro. Like, we should, everything should be on the table.

And I'd want a guy like that sitting there saying, hey, not saying, hey, nothing's perfect, but rather saying, we're very lucky so far. You know, our teams have been doing what we've asked them to do. We're doing the constant testing. We're hoping to keep this at a minimum. We know we've had a few slip-ups. But we do have a plan for action in the case that something happens like what we are seeing in some of these other sports. happened to baseball during the regular season with a couple of different teams, the Marlins and then

the Cardinals. It is happening now in college football, altering some massive games, like a game that would have been, you know, like a CBS 230 game. And so the idea that we could one, you know, one of these days see, oh man, it really spread on this one team and then it had to alter everything. Like, that's on the table. It just is. That's the society and the world we're living in right now. Yeah, and I'm fine with them pushing the season back. Like, extend it. You know, take, I don't, I don't, if teams are having outbreaks, you can't let these guys play other opponents. And some of this stuff is, is, is could be self-inflicted. Some of the stuff could be. It just one guy happened to get it and, and it just spread. I mean, this is obviously a pandemic. Like, stuff like that is going to happen. And especially when we aren't in a bubble. And you just have to react with it and, and deal with it. So, all right. I'm still pretty optimistic. I am too. All right, Warren.

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So the Dak Prescott thing was the absolute worst. I mean, just the worst. it was, you know, you have this, all of it together was just overload for me, right? Because it's him laying on the ground. Tony Romo is calling the game, who is the guy that Dak replaced after he had an injury that ended up being the very end of his career. Jason Garrett, who coached both of them, is on the other sideline and he's walking out. And as this goes, Tony Romo, as Dak has.

holding his leg saying, hey, hopefully it's just a cramp and the frigging camera zooms in. And I am absolutely horrified, as is the rest of the world with what they see. The reality then sets in that the season is over for Dak Prescott, but they did go out in the offseason and got a real backup quarterback, like a starting caliber, a backup quarterback. And trust me, I've lived all the way from Babe Lofenberg to Ryan Leaf to Drew Hansen to a Stephen McGee to whoever else, right? And so this is the first time in a long time where they're bringing a guy in

that is certainly capable of starting NFL games and winning NFL games. And I am interested in your perspective on what does this mean for the Cowboys point spread-wise, losing DAC, and what does it mean wins-wise? losing DAC. You know, if you're a Cowboys fan, should you feel good about Andy Dalton being able to be plugged in and still win games? Well, I don't think you should be feeling good about

winning games even before that. So I don't, I don't, damn you. Come on, Warren. I mean, let's be real. I don't think the Cowboys have been that successful. It's a big win over the Giants. Michael Gallup, toe tapping. Yeah. No, like we'll talk about that game in a second. They should have won that game by more than what they did. But let's talk first about Andy Dalton and what he's been able to do in his career. Because Andy Dalton is one of these guys, to me, is along the lines of Teddy Bridgewater in the sense, you know, that everybody thinks is just terrible. But he's actually better than what people think just because they remember some things that they didn't like about him.

Now, and Teddy, it's a little bit different because I don't think Teddy's been ever, like, truly terrible in his career, whereas there's been sometimes that Andy Dalton has actually been terrible. And you remember, like, prime time Andy Dalton, that narrative where he's been terrible in, like, key spots. But if we want to say that the point spread is an ability to kind of measure a quarterback, because most of the time, there is, well, 100% of time, there's no more value. a position to a team than a quarterback.

And we can see that with the point spread itself when those quarterbacks get shifted in and out and adjusted, number one. And number two, we know that the point spread is going to try to evaluate two teams that are different and set them up on a level playing field via the point spread to try to say, okay, half the time team A should cover, half the time team B should cover. so this point spread should be the great delineator for that. Okay. Let me just ask you real quick before you get into the,

to his career stats on this. I'll just ask you point blank. They are the underdog versus Arizona this week on Monday night football. If Dak Prescott is the starting quarterback, would they be underdogs? No. No. So the odds maker and what we can do is we can look at like some of the line history

and look at where DAC was, where this line was with DAC. And with DAC, prior to this game starting, the odds maker opened the look ahead at the Cowboys laying three points at home in prime time to the Arizona Cardinals at minus 110 juice, which basically means there's 10 cents of Vig on both sides. That got bet. The betters were betting the Cowboys and move that number from minus 110 juice to minus 115 to minus 120 to minus 130. What that means is, To win $100, you have to now bet $130 on the Dallas Cowboys instead of $110 when the book first opened that number. Then the books take the game off the board and we watch Sunday's action.

And we watch who wins and who loses. And then the odds makers repost the games no longer using a look ahead number, but their real number that they're allowing. And over the course of the week, they start raising the limits. Right. So look ahead numbers. There's a reason why people don't really bet those because the limits are very shitty. You can't get down much. And why would you, if you're a real professional better, why are you actually going to expose and tip your hand if you're trying to win and make money in the NFL? Okay. You're not betting on sports. You're not going to bet these damn look ahead numbers like that because you can get down a tenth or less of what you can actually get. down. And so if you know that you have an edge and you know you're going to be able to beat the sports books, you're not going to bet these look-aheads. So it's good to know what the odds makers are thinking. And it's good to know what some of the early action numbers are on those look-aheads are. But they're not representative of what the real sophisticated sharp betters are doing.

And I don't advise any guy who's actually trying to make money in the NFL to be betting those games unless your bankroll is like minuscule. But at any rate, that's where it opened. When they reposted these numbers once Dak Prescott was injured and we saw that the Arizona Cardinals crushed the jets. This line then opened with the Cowboys catching three points. So we're talking about a six points swing from minus three all the way to plus three, but it's actually more than that because it was minus three, minus 130. Remember, it wasn't just minus three, minus 110. It went all the way up to minus 130, which means Dallas is heavier. we're almost heading to minus three and a half here and now it's plus three. The line has since

taken some Cowboys money and is down to two and a half. But the point being that the bookmakers feel like DAC was worth about six points to the point spread. Wow. It's actually more massive than that when you consider that it was minus three, minus 30. In addition, we're talking about some key numbers here where you're going from minus three all the way to plus three. We're not talking about moving from, you know, numbers that don't really matter like minus 11 to minus 17, right? That's not, you can do that a lot easier. So he's a massive loss from the point spread. But let me just talk about Andy Dalton for a second. Andy Dalton is the kind of quarterback who if he's on a good team, he's going to look better. And if his surrounding

pieces are bad, he's going to look worse. And just some career numbers from him against the spread. So if he's a big underdog of five or more points, career, he's only won three of 15 games, and he's five and ten against the spread. So 36 percent against 33 percent against spread, terrible, terrible quarterback. But when he's an underdog of less than that, so it looks like a closer game, he's not viewed as like, oh my God, these guys have no chance. He's actually won 50% of his games. He's 18 and 18, and he's covered 67% of these games against the spread. Now, I'm not looking at the 2019 Cincinnati Bengals, we'll look at everything else in his career because 2019, these guys were dumpster fire and tanking some games and that type of stuff.

They were just very inefficient. And so I'm not even looking at that season, saying that that is really representative. On the surface, that sounds like a very good record. That's a great, that's a great record. That's an outstanding record. I mean, I mean, If we're just, forget the point spread. Obviously, the point spread record is fantastic. As you said, 24 and 12 in those games. But 18 and 18 as a slight underdog is pretty impressive. It is.

It's very impressive. Now, the reverse is true. That would lead me to think that you are better than what people give you credit for being. 100%. 100%. You're viewed as like this guy who's not probably going to be able to get it done, but the game's going to be kind of close. You're slightly the worst team.

And then you actually, are able to win half those games, that is really good. Now, you know where else he's won basically half his games? When he's been a small favorite of less than five points, when he's been a small favorite of less than five points, he's also basically flipping a coin, winning about half those games, and he's got a negative, which you would assume, therefore, a negative against the spread record of only covering 41%. But when he is a favorite of at least five points, so now we're talking the situation where his team is good, you're not going to favor teams by five plus points unless you feel like they've got a good advantage in a particular game. So his team is good.

He's going up against a more inferior opponent. There, he's been outstanding. He's covered 68% of those games, 19 and 9 against the spread, 23 and 4, 3 and 1 in terms of his overall record, which is 85%. So he's been really good when his team is viewed as like much better than the opponent. He's also been really good when the perception of them is, oh, they're probably going to lose. And he's got Andy Dalton, that quarterback. And they're this small underdog. Like, okay, well, maybe they could win. But now it's Andy Dalton. So probably not. That's when also he's been really good. When he's viewed as like, oh, this team has no chance, then they really don't have a chance. So in this game, he falls into the category of a guy who, oh, my God, Andy Dalton, this is, he's not really a good quarterback.

This team is not going to do well to this category of like, okay, well, you know, they're viewed as like, this might be an over adjustment on the line. There might be a little value taking Dallas plus three here. And I'll just say myself, like, I would bet on Andy Dalton in this spot. Number one, I haven't yet, but I'm not adverse to betting on Andy Dalton. So from Cowboys fans' perspective, like, I think you got a great situation going with Andy Dalton as your backup quarterback, much better than other teams in the league who would have to resort to using their backup quarterback. I think it's also painfully clear that the quarterback alone is not the issue on your team. You've had great production out of Dak Prescott so far this season, and the team's win-loss record has still been pretty terrible. There's other things that the team needs to fix besides just the quarterback position.

so they need to address those things as well. But let's also mention in this particular game that I know the Arizona Cardinals won that game pretty big, but I have not been impressed overall by what Arizona has done this season. Hey, Warren, I'll tell you, it would be pretty crazy, though. I don't, they haven't covered yet, right? They're over. It'd be hilarious.

It'd be the Cowboys. They haven't covered a game. I lose my ass every week. And it would be hilarious if Andy Dalton checked in at starting quarter. back and they finally cover a game. Well, I think, let me, they're 0 and 5, right? Let me pull up their

Wynn lot, their ATS record. Hold on. I think they're 0.15. They're covered. They're, they're 0 and 5. They've lost on average by five and a half points on the spread, but they've been favored in every single game so far this season. So this is the first game of the year where they're

viewed as the underdog. That shouldn't win. And I will also say that now is a good time to say that against the New York Giants, the Cowboys probably should have won this game a lot easier than they did. The Giants over the course of this, the entire game had only three drives that they recorded at least 39 yards on, okay, only three. On those drives, they've had, they had four drives where they recorded at least 35 yards on. And of those drives, they scored one touchdown and kicked three field goals. Okay. They made field goals in this game.

of, what is it, like 50, 52 and 55 yards in that game. So they had a, what was it, a fumble return touchdown. They also got another fumble where they only had 17 yards to go. So that's 14 points off of those plays. Like the Dallas Cowboys absolutely were far more efficient offensively than the New York Giants here and should have won this game by a larger margin than they actually did. But hey, you know, that's, that's the way, that's the way it goes sometimes. but they were by far the better, the more successful team. And as a result, everybody thinks, oh, my God, the Cowboys could barely beat this team. And oh, my God, it's now Andy Dalton.

Yeah. And I think they're overvaluing the Arizona Cardinals in this spot. All right. Let's rapid fire on these last topics. We'll go through them one by one. All right, Warren. Is it more likely that the AFC North, who is riding really high with the Steelers, the Ravens and the Browns, the Bengals is the only team? I think they're one, three and one.

and they're not bad. They're not terrible. How about that? They're bad. They're not terrible. Is it more likely that those three teams make the playoffs or the NFC West, which I think after the first couple of weeks of the season, we thought, man, the Seahawks will be there, the Rams will be there,

the 49ers will be there. But then this, what the F performance by the 49ers against the dolphins this weekend may give you cause for pause, which in your mind is more likely that the AFC North has three teams in the playoffs or that the NFC West has three teams in the playoffs. Yeah, I don't know. That's a very good question. I've said from before the start of the season that I think the AFC North gets three teams in. So because of that, I'm probably going to say the AFC North and just stick with that because I think I haven't seen anything that indicates I should change my opinion. But I will say that the way that you're going to get your

teams into the playoffs is by comparing how good you are with the other teams in your conference. And as I'm looking around it, you know, I think the bills are good. I think the Patriots are probably better than a 500 team this year. You look at the AFC South. I don't know what those teams are, right? Like, I don't think Tennessee is as good as a 4-0 team. I don't think that they're going to continue being this ridiculously great team the rest of the season from a win-loss record. I think they're above-average team, and maybe they do end up

winning that division because the Colts are having some issues themselves. I don't know, Philip Rivers' arm is going to hang on the full course of the season. We'll have to see. I don't necessarily believe in the Raiders being above 500 team, but I think that performance was a little bit fluky against the Chiefs. So I think there is more opportunities in the AFC for them to get those teams in, whereas I'm looking at the NFC and I'm seeing teams like the Packers, I think, are for real, obviously. I think the Eagles and the Cowboys, you know, those teams are at a disadvantage because their win-loss record already is pretty terrible. So you're probably only going to get one of those teams that wins the division in the postseason.

I don't think you're going to get two from that division. I don't really know that the Bears can keep this going. I kind of don't think that there is good enough a team to do that. I think you're probably the favorite if you're betting that there are going to be three teams to make the NFC, the playoffs from the NFC West. But that being said, I don't like the two teams that are at the back end of that division right now. The Arizona Cardinals, I'm not a huge fan of. I love Kyle Shanahan with the San Francisco 49ers, but they got to get Jimmy G. right,

and their defense has to get healthy. And so these are a lot of X factors that have to come in there from a player health perspective. All right. One of the things that we did not mention that certainly does have a shot at the playoffs, which I don't think we would have expected, is Carolina. They're a good story, you know. You had the Cam Exodus, Teddy Bridgewater, who we had mentioned earlier, is brought in. But more importantly than that, they lost the guy that everybody knows around the NFL,

like Christian McCaffrey at the beginning of the season. and they brought in college coaches, you know, Matt Ruhle, who I covered when he was a coach in the American Athletic Conference, when he was coaching Temple. And I thought this guy was just absolutely unbelievable. He obviously leaves Temple. He goes to Baylor, which is an awful situation after the Art Bryle stuff. And within a few years' time, builds them back into a power. a lot of people took notice of him. He ends up getting this Carolina job.

Joe Brady, who had this immense success as an offensive savant, as many have turned him at LSU last year. And so they bring in Joe Brady. So they bring in these two guys from college. They bring in Teddy Bridgewater, and they have all this success. They lose Christian McCaffrey,

but they're still having success. I'm interested in knowing, are these guys who came from the college game, are they doing anything exceptionally different than other NFL teams that you've noticed? And more importantly, why, in your opinion, have they had success, more success than I think we would have thought so far this year?

Well, I don't know. Like, I still, I still, I like the Carolina Panthers, and I like Teddy Bridgewater. I've gone on record of saying that and how underrated of a quarterback he is because he's able to, it just season in, season out gets the job done. But I think their defense is playing a little bit better than what we expected, but they're still only 25th in the NFL.

So we can't get too surprised by that. I think the more surprising factor is what their offense has been doing, where they rank seventh in efficiency. But we have to keep in mind that they've played the 10th easiest schedule of opposing defenses. And when you look at who they've played, more importantly, who they've beaten, yeah, it is surprising that they sit three and two because a lot of people thought they would be terrible. But if you look at like the total efficiency of these teams, we're talking about the chargers who ranked 22nd, the Cardinals who rank 19, and the Falcons who rank 25. And we're not talking

about in any of those three games, with the exception to the Cardinals, which they won by 10 points. And I don't really like the Cardinals all that much this year. We're talking about one score games that they were able to win, right? Like 21 to 16, 23 to 16. That game against the Raiders, the Raiders had a nice lead. They came back on it. The Panthers came back on it week one. They obviously didn't look as good against the bucks in week two. But I feel like they're that kind of a team. I feel like they're that kind of a team, which is like they'll be in a one score game with you, right? Their stats aren't going to be all that well, but they don't kill themselves and they'll be there, right? With a chance to be.

you. They're going to let you beat yourself. And then their stats aren't going to look that good, but they play what ends up being winning football. I don't disagree. I mean, but we've got a tough schedule for them and maybe we'll find some good opportunities to continue taking them as underdogs. I don't know if it's this week against the Bears, but they've got games against the Saints, the Chiefs, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in four of their, I believe their next five games. So, sorry, three of their next five games, they're playing the Bucks, the Chiefs, and the Saints. I bet they win one of those.

We're going to get some good competition for them and perhaps some spots where we can get some value on them as an underdog. And I like McCaffrey's replacement, Warren. At Mike Davis, every once in a while you get these guys, I went and looked up his bio. He's like a friggin 49er. Then he was like on another team. And then he's just kind of bouncing around.

And he plug him in. And this guy is just, I mean, the nubes. numbers he's put up in McCaffrey's spot are really impressive. And he was dynamite at South Carolina when he was in college. I remember him from college, but it was just like, yeah, whatever happened to that guy? And he shows back up. Yeah, when you, when you, look, it goes to show that when you run the ball in the right situations and you've got a guy who fits your scheme and knows what you want to do from a rushing perspective and how to hit the holes and how to read the defenses and how the blockers are blocking and he's the right type of fit for that,

you don't have to have a Christian McCaffrey in order to have success, like, to do at least what you need to do from that perspective. So absolutely, like this team is 13th in rushing efficiency against the 10th most difficult schedule of run defenses through the first five weeks. That's extremely impressive to be putting up those results without Christian McCaffrey. All right. Last thing before we get out of here, so you spend your entire life writing a book previewing the season. And then you have these opinions going into this season about these teams and what you think they're going to look like as the season plays out. We're about a third of the way through the season. So far, Warren Sharps, the team that you have been most surprised by, the team you have been most disappointed in in regards, in relation to what you thought was going to happen. this season. Well, I'm going to spin a couple of the things in a positive manner, and then I'm going to go negative on a couple of teams,

even though that they're surprised me from a good perspective. Because most of the things that I thought were going to happen are happening, like the Vikings not being quite as good and starting up the season poorly, like the Browns being better than we thought, like the Colts being better than we thought, which, I mean, they obviously lost to the Browns, but I thought they were going to lose to the Browns. But a team that surprised me that in a good way, two teams have been the Bills and have been the Seahawks because they've bought into what we wanted them to be doing from an efficiency perspective offensively last night's game against the Titans notwithstanding.

These two teams have been doing a lot of the things that they needed to change in the offseason to make themselves more efficient that we were hoping that they would do, but actually seeing it play out on the field, that has to be a positive surprise, even though I can say, like, it's not like it caught me off guard, right? Like, I expected them to be doing these things for a variety of reasons. But a team that I've been impressed by from a more surprised that I wasn't planning on being impressed by has to be the chargers. And it doesn't bear out in their win-loss record.

They've only won one of four games. But the way that they're playing and their efficiency that they're getting out of Justin Herbert, like he alone is one of the most surprising guys to me in the NFL this season because I wasn't expecting as much from him as a quarterback who understands pressure, his ability to avoid it, ability to get the ball down the field, and just some of his impressive plays. He's leading the NFL in performance when he's being pressured. Now, I know the true evaluation for a quarterback is what is he doing when he's not being pressured.

But with their offensive line being what it is with all the injuries that they've suffered, him being as performing as well as he has under pressure is what is keeping these guys in games and making those games close. Man, I'm with you, Warren. This guy, I watched him, you know, even in the Pac-12 championship, even in the bowl game against Wisconsin, you know, they were running the ball down people's throat. Like that was in and I'm sitting there going like this guy is supposed to be the all pro, you know, franchise quarterback. Like typically in college, you know, you're even, you're even more ridiculous than you would be on the NFL level. And then you watch them and it was like, geez, they're, they're killing teams running the ball.

And I was like, I don't know, man. I don't know if this guy, I get it. Tall, good looking guy. He's got the laser rocket arm, the whole thing. I know he's a smart kid, but I don't know if he's got that kind of moxie. Because, I mean, otherwise, why aren't you throwing the ball more? And why isn't he more effective? Because even the numbers in the big games weren't that impressive.

I am just stunt. I think you watch him. He looks nothing like a rookie. It's crazy. And his arm is a friggin cannon. That is a fun pick. And I said this last week, man, Miami better be right about Tua. It better be right, Warren, because this dude looks like he could be awesome.

No, he does look like he can be awesome. But let's discuss why they are one and four, because he's been performing out of this world. And this is one of the things that's one of the reasons why I didn't love the charters entering the season. It's their coaching. It's their coaching. And so let's dive into it real quick because then we'll get off on this note. but it needs to be discussed and we might as well dive into it. The Chargers right now have the number eight most efficient passing offense in the league

despite playing the number one toughest schedule of past defenses. So with this rookie, with injuries to their receiving core, with injuries along the offensive line, they are still a top 10 passing offense despite playing the number one toughest schedule of opposing past defenses. However, they rank number 30 in run efficiency, despite playing the 11th easiest schedule of rushing offenses. So you're playing tough past defenses and you're doing great. You're playing easy run offenses and you're doing terrible.

So what should we be doing here? We should be passing the ball because we know we're exceeding expectations passing the ball. Yet they are the sixth most run heavy team. on early downs in the first three quarters. On first downs, they are averaging the number four most run heavy team. They're running the ball on almost 60% of their plays on first downs. These runs are averaging just 3.1 yards per carry with a 36% success rate. The NFL average is almost 1.5 yards per carry more than that and over 10% more successful than what the what the chargers are doing.

Yet they're running the ball at the fourth highest rate in the NFL on first down. Last week against the Saints on first down, they call 18 run plays and only 10 passes. The run plays average 1.1 yards per carry, 17% success with minus 0.37 EPA, which was the worst in the NFL, yet they run the ball 18 times. Their passes on first down averaged 8.4 yards per attempt up versus 1.1 yards per carry. 40% success versus 17. And the EPA is plus 0.31 as compared to minus 0.37, which was the number four best in the NFL last week. And yet look, they've lost four games and all four losses have been by one score or less. So this is a team frustratingly enough for them.

They could be doing much better this season. They beat the Bengals week one, 16 to 13 with Tyrod Taylor. All of a sudden a second before the start of the game against the Chiefs week two, they puncture Tyrod Taylor's lung and this guy gets inserted. And they almost beat the Chiefs. and they go on to lose their next three games by less than a score in each of them. And you have such a great passing offense with a quarterback who's vastly exceeded expectations. This type of thing, Chris, absolutely pisses me off that they aren't looking at these numbers

and making the appropriate adjustments because they're digging themselves in a massive hole because of their play calling alone. They are self-inflicting these wounds. and there is no excuse for this in today's NFL that they can't look at these statistics and realize what they should be doing. Now, they're about to approach a point of the schedule where they are playing, they have a buy this week. I hope to God that they got lucky that they have a buy this week. Okay, they were supposed to have a buy in week 10. All of a sudden, because of the schedule changes, they've got a buy this week instead, right? They come out of the

buy and they play the Miami Dolphins. And after that, they're playing a bunch of below average pass defenses. They literally do not play from week eight until they play the chiefs again in week 17. They do not play a single team with an above average pass defense the rest of the way. The first start of the season, here's the defenses that they played and where they ranked in passing. Number 10, number two, number 13, number four, and number 12. All of those teams, top half of the league and past defense. From week 8 to 16, every single team is bottom half of the league. They absolutely must change up their strategy and their offensive philosophy, focus more

on passing the ball on early downs, on first down, be more pass heavy, skew that direction. You're about to play defenses that aren't as good as the pass. You're much better when you pass the football. And I think that they think they're protecting Herbert because he's a rookie and he's not familiar with the situation so let's run the ball more. All you're doing is forcing him to convert on these third and long situations, which luckily he's been doing a lot of for you and hitting these deep balls down the field and delivering impressive performances. That type of thing is not sustainable though, but you know what you've got in him. Let him pass the ball when the defense is

playing the run. Pass in these opportune situations. It's super frustrating from an analytics guy studying what they're doing and how they're holding their team back. It feels like they're still calling their plays like they've got Tyrod Taylor and Aaron Echler, honestly. Instead of a guy with a rocket arm and, you know, Justin Jackson or Josh Kelly or whoever they're putting back there in the place of Echler, you know. I cannot agree more. I think that they are hurting themselves here and I hope that they adjust it.

But in terms of a singular person who's been the most shocking to me with what he's been able to do, I don't care that they're one in four. It's got to be Justin Herbert. All right. I'm going to go Max Bet the Cowboys and Andy Dalton, Warren. So, and I'm blaming you if it loses. I mean, come on. They got to cover something at some point.

And I'll be listening to you and Joe House cover all the point spreads on Friday. Have a good week, brother. All right, my friend. Thanks for listening to another edition of the Ringer NFL show. Remember Kevin Clark and the crew will be back with a another one tomorrow.