The Ringer NFL Show - Sharp Points and Brady vs. Rodgers

Episode Date: October 16, 2020

Warren Sharp, joined by Joe House, gives some Sharp points for Week 6 in NFL gambling. Later, the duo discusses some of the marquee matchups of the weekend, including Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Hosts: Warren Sharp & Joe House Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, hey, my gambling gurus by wagering wizards on this week's Ringer NFL show. It's Friday, so you know how we do it. Me and Warren Sharp are looking for angles and opportunities to help you with your weekend. Card. We're looking at a couple marquee matchups. Pittsburgh and Cleveland, the AFC North is the best division in football. We're also looking at the quarterback legends. Tampa Bay with Tom Brady and Aaron Rogers with Green Bay.

We've got a bunch of good angle, some unexpected opportunities out there, perhaps with the Dallas Cowboys and the San Francisco 49ers. All that and more in this week's Ringer NFL show. Podcast pals, today's episode of the Ringer NFL show on the Ringer podcast Network is brought to you by State Farm. getting great car and home insurance from State Farm at a surprisingly great rate. Why that is like drafting a player that becomes an all pro, maybe like my main man, Chase Young. The real deal. State Farm agents provide personalized service so you can customize your insurance to fit your needs like a GM putting together their very own roster. We're talking about a good GM here, not a bum like Bill.

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No Thursday night football. Joe House must have gotten your beauty sleep in. But talk to me about it, buddy. What did you think about not having football last night? Well, on the one hand, Sharpie, I will tell you, I was pleased to have kind of a Thursday night traditional kickoff to the weekend, you know, without feeling like I needed to be on the day. the line and on the hook for any football knowledge.

But on the other hand, I've really enjoyed the Tuesday night game, what we got to see with the Bills and the Titans. And I wonder if the way that this season is playing out and the NFL schedule, there is going to be some thought given to lengthening the schedule a little bit. because, you know, these games where they occupy a unique night and it's the only game in town, it really gives us an uncomplicated look at some teams. And I personally have enjoyed it. I really loved that Titans Bills game.

I just feel like I learned so much about those teams that way. Yeah, I think that Titans Bills game personally, I thought that it was a little bit of a faulty final score. I don't think the margin was indicative of how that game played out, a couple of plays. here or there would have kept it very close. But I agree in terms of not missing that Thursday night football game that much, it was just a lot easier flow for me to submit a report in the evening on Thursday and then carry on with the rest of my work and not have to spend it processing and analyzing a football game that night.

So I was absolutely not complaining about having the random Thursday night off during the season. And so that was fun. Have we shared with people what your sort of weeknights look like? Do you want to share with people? I mean, he's kind of a night owl. Let's just put it that way. Warren Sharp is a night owl and works late into evenings and early mornings. And I admire the hustle buddy.

I mean, it's just an incredible schedule that you keep. What time did you go to bed? I'm going to say this morning because I know it was after midnight. Oh, yeah, yeah. I mean, that's not even, you could. You could literally mortgage your house that I'll never go to bed before midnight. No, it was, it's generally between 3.30 and 4 is pretty much the routine. Last night it was 4.

Which is why I'm glad we got an extra 30 minutes before we started this podcast up this morning. There's the beauty sleep. Those make a big difference. It seems like the less sleep you get, that every additional minute you get of it is very valuable. Well, you know, no joke. That is one of the angles we're going to talk about on today's show because we have one matchup in particular that features a team that has traveled cross country back and forth, back and forth, back and forth, and we will get to that later in the show.

But we have some results to go over from week five, and we can run through that first and see if there's any hay to make around what we're seeing across the NFL through five weeks, yes? Let's do it. Let's do it. Give me the breakdown. So I have my, by my count, we had favorites go six and eight in week five. We had the home teams go six and eight, and both of those are against the spread totals. Underdogs went five and nine straight up. So I think that's maybe the highest number of underdog wins all season long in a week. And over unders flattened out at seven and seven.

So season to date, favorites. are 35, 40, and 2. So if you just plain old bet underdogs every single week, you would be on the other side of that, 40, 35, and 2. Still not up to that percentage where it's profitable to choose a strategy like that. And we would never recommend that. But there is a little bit of distance being spaced out there.

Home teams 34, 42, and 1 against the spread, which means the home field advantage is trash. underdogs straight up 2552 and 1. And by my count, and I think this is off the number that you have with your database, over unders at 43, 29, and 5. So we're still hanging in there at that same 62, 63% clip for overs, right? Yeah, season to date we are. But last week we definitely hit that spot that we anticipated.

And you're right. As you read off those stats, you know, last week, overs, unders went, 7 and 7. So we had an even split. And this was in line with kind of what I was indicating when we had our pod last week, which was that there was very little value on the board anymore. It wasn't a week last week where we were rushing to bet overs early in the week where we thought there were some totals that were substantially often. In fact, if you look at the four highest totals on the board, the games that closed the with the highest total, the Falcons Panthers, the Texans Jaguars, the Seahawks Vikings, and the Chiefs Raiders, three out of those four games went under the total. So we saw definitely the odds makers overadjusting across the board on a lot of these totals, but that's why you have a very sophisticated computer model, and that's why you're looking at these things. You're not just blindly betting games based on trends, is so that you can spot the fact when the odds maker is over adjusting and you can capitalize by either going

going the other way or just staying away. You bet where there's value and you don't bet where there's not, and that's the discipline that it takes. Yeah, well, I attempted to pick one game on that slate where it looked like there was some inflation and, you know, try and grab an under-opportunity. And that was the Dallas New York Giants game. And that overhit in the third quarter.

So I looked for a situation-specific opportunity. We had a thesis. We talked it through. It didn't work out. but that does not undermine the overall point of trusting the process and looking for this inflation you're mentioning. I've got to give a shout out to your colleague, T.A. Cleveland, who dropped this little nugget I saw. You know, the number of points by which the overs are hitting have been decreasing since week two.

And he laid this out in week two when the over, the games that went over, they were over by an average of over seven points. and by week five, we're all the way down to the overs going over by just over a point, point and a half or so. So that's exactly, you know, matches up with the trend that you're talking about. Yeah, and every game is unique and every game needs to be capped uniquely. And this Cowboys Giants game, I mean, like we discussed it a little bit on the Wednesday show, but in a nutshell, it was ridiculous. When you have defensive scores like that and short fields like that were set up via some of the turnovers,

you're not going to stand any chance. And the Cowboys, look, the Giants, rather, they had three drives that were 38 or more yards in that game. Sorry, four drives that were 38 or more yards in that game. They kicked three field goals on those four drives and scored one touchdown. I mean, so typically, we're talking there, 16 points off of that, and three of their field goals were like 50-plus yarders that they banged through all of them.

So we're not talking about an office. in New York. I think they were inflated. Their production, scoring 34 points in that game was exaggerated. I think the Cowboys defense actually did a better job. And we'll talk about that later, but the Cowboys defense did a better job than what was indicated on the scoreboard there. And they probably should have won that game by a larger margin than the three-point margin that was indicated there. You're making me feel a lot better. I appreciate that. I don't know if it's just because it's Friday morning. We want to get, you know, everything going. but thank you very much for making me feel better,

even though I lost my pocketbook, doesn't feel better, but you're helping me my psychology, which is always welcome. Thank you. The thing is, how, on every single game,

you have to look beyond even what you're watching. You have to go back and either rewatch the film. You have to go back and look at the data to really get a better understanding as to how these games are. And that's why handicapping a game just by looking at the final score of the prior game or just looking at the results,

This is so much of the NFL public in general is doing just that. They're just looking at what the final score was or they're just watching the game out of the corner of their eye and seeing what it was doing for a few moments. And they think that they know the result or the vibe of that game. The reality is you got to take a step away, sit down, digest and process it. And many times you come away with a far different conclusion than even what the final score was in some cases like the, the game. game on Tuesday night where it looked like a massive win for the Titans and they completely demolish the bills. The reality is a lot different than that when you sit down and look at it. So I think that's just a little early sharp point there is you really have to spend some time

breaking down the results and steer clear of the final score because that's what the odds makers are using and the general public are using to set numbers for the following week. and you can really find value when you go below that level and you dig deeper and deeper, that's how you're going to find value on the betting board. Yeah, see, this is it. We're giving out the sharp points right before we get to the sharp points. I like it. Before we jump into the sharp points this week, in terms of the slate that we have in front of us here for week six,

overs and unders, has anything jumped off the board to you? Is there anything where you see an opportunity to maybe, you know, wade in and take an angle? Yeah, there have been actually. So we've discussed this before about how when I'm moving on a game and I work with a number of people deep into the sports betting atmosphere, let's say, guys that are very connected. So we're working on these games and then I'm sharing them with my clients. and we're able to move numbers and we're able to manipulate the market, not necessarily for a gain, but just when we're getting down on the game, we're going to move the betting market. And there were a couple of games early this week that we decided to get down on from a

total's perspective that we thought the totals were too light. And actually, we got down on three different games, one of which we thought that the total was too exaggerated and two of which we thought that the total was too exaggerated and two of which we thought that the total was too light. And already we've gotten, oh gosh, let's see, four points of line movement in one game and two and a half in another. Those are the two largest mover. So, you know, that's significant amount of line value. Now, we'll see what it is at the close, because that's really how you measure it, but you're trying to get in and time the market properly. So the bottom line is my model did find a few games where the odds maker was wrong,

and my model has a ridiculously strong track record. So they did a good job overall. I thought a lot of their lines were pretty reasonable, but that's the thing. That's a fun part about betting house, is that you don't have to bet across the board. They have to line every single game. We look at it and say, no, you're wrong here. You're too high. No, you're wrong there. You're too low. Same thing with sides. You figure out where they're putting a side that's not correct. And you can pounce on those opportunities. And that's exactly what you have to do.

That's your job. If you don't do it, you're not doing your job as a better, as a pro better. You've got to find those spots. And we found a few this week so far. Yeah, that's it. It's that Belichick discipline. Do your job. So you have two overs and one under.

And we'll go through the slate a little bit and maybe talk about where those opportunities reside. But before we jump in to the slate, it is time for some sharp points. Hey, wagering wizards. Today's episode of the Ringer NFL show, also brought to us by our friends at Fandool, got to tell you about my new favorite bet concept this season. You can play same game parlays on Fandul Sportsbook, and it is incredibly fun. This is something that you cannot do

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I like the opportunity. You're hearing it on the show this week for Dallas. I like Dallas getting some points. I like Dallas at home. I think they're ready to finally get a win against the spread. They're 0.5 so far. So we're going to bet the Dallas line. If there's any value at all there, it's still plus. We're going to bet the Dallas line. We're going to bet the Dallas money line. And we're going to do Andy Dalton over yards. Whatever the yards are for Andy Dalton, we're betting that over.

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what the finals seem to suggest. That was a nice, sharp point. We also have in front of us a helpful input from the listeners, So our email, Sharp Points NFL at gmail.com, that's where we can get from you, our podcast listeners, the things that you want some insights on from Warren Sharp. You know how we do this. We reach and Warren teaches.

So this week, podcast consumer Todd wants to know about opportunities or angles that come up with coach replacement. So last week, Houston beat Jacksonville and Houston covered with Romeo Cornell as their interim head coach. This week we have lined up Atlanta, Minnesota, Atlanta, got rid of Dan Quinn. I was very sad to see him go for my, for betting purposes, Sharpie. But, you know, we have Rahim Morris in as interim coach. So the question is, is there any kind of. trend, is there a historical bump for teams the week after a coaching change?

Well, if you take it back to a reasonable enough sample size, the answer is no. For a number of years there in the early 2010's time frame, yeah, I mean, you were hitting at like a 75% ATS clip. If you were taking the team in their immediate game after they fired their head coach in season. But over the last like five years, you're definitely like down back to like 25% ATS. So over a long enough sample size, no. I think that there's a couple of things to be discussed there. The first is that typically teams are firing coaches because those coaches aren't good. And so there's only a few instances where, you know, a quote unquote like players coach who all

the players absolutely loved. And then it was just absolutely ridiculous that the owner decided to get rid of this coach midseason, like that that wouldn't, that they would feel that way and you wouldn't get some sort of a positive bump after that, after the fact that that guy's gone from the building. But in some cases, it just doesn't offset the value or the fact that this team is just absolutely terrible. Most of the time you're not firing a coach when a team, midseason at least, when a team is middling, right? You're firing a coach for a team. that's terrible, who's going to be probably a big underdog in a particular game. So every situation is different.

Every season is different. Every team is different. So at a minimum, yes, it's typically a breath of fresh air, but is this something that you should always be betting upon because there is definitive edges to do so? No. Long enough sample, large enough sample size, there is zero edge to be gained by doing this every single time a coach is fired. Okay, so that's very helpful and instructive.

We don't do knee-jerk betting. What about the specific circumstances of this specific game? Minnesota favored by four, I believe, according to the line I saw this morning, home against Atlanta. And it looks like the game is actually going to be played, notwithstanding some COVID experience at the Falcons. I will tell you right now, I have been quietly impressed with Minnesota. It feels like they've slightly resurrected.

They're getting healthy again in the secondary a little bit. And they're competitive. I mean, they really, to me, permitted Seattle to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. They were accomplices in that Sunday night. But I thought they played Seattle pretty tough. And it feels like minus four at home against Atlanta, notwithstanding the fact that home field advantage no longer exists, Feels like there might be a little opportunity in there.

Do you have a read on that game? Well, if we were talking about Rahim Morris first, he's the interim head coach, he was the defensive coordinator for the Falcons. And the Falcons turned their defense around over the second half of last year, in large part because he started calling plays. But as I indicated in the book and in my off-season study, the things that the Falcons really improved defensively upon were third-down defense and red zone defense. And these two areas, these two elements are typically not going to carry on from one season to the next in the most correlated manner.

It's not going to just carry over year over a year like that. What you want to do is if you're having a strong defense, it's going to be early downs when the offense is doing what it wants to do and you're just able to do some very good things on those early downs. And the Falcons, even when he was calling plays last season in the second half, were not good on early downs over. 80% of the football field as opposed to the red zone. So I have a lot of confidence in the Falcons defense heading into this season. Obviously, Dan Quinn was the captain of the ship there. He's gone. Would you expect some of the defenders to step it up a little bit, knowing that, okay,

this guy's gone? Yes, possibly. Because what's going to happen? Well, Rahim Morris wants another shot at being a head coach. So he wants to come in and show that this team is actually going to be better under his guidance. So he's probably going to change a couple things, is my guess, that the team wasn't doing before that they're doing now so that he can put his sort of stamp on things to make it like, oh, well, if this team starts winning some games, it's this guy. It's this guy. It's not just,

oh, well, Dan Quinn was terrible and the team's terrible too, but it's actually Rahim Morris, who was the reason that we started turning things around. So I expect a few changes from him, possibly on the defensive side of the ball. The other thing that we have to know about the defensive side of the ball for the Atlanta Falcons is that for weeks like three, four, and five to some extent, they were dealing with injuries in their secondary. They had guys in and out. A couple guys were on a COVID list. They had injuries and guys are now back. So they're bringing a lot of their secondary back to the front in this game. The other thing that I'm looking at in this game in particular is the simple fact that you have a Minnesota Vikings team that goes on the road last week.

And as you indicated, they are looking a little bit better. They seem to be a little bit more well put together. In that game, my handicap for what Minnesota was going to do was interesting, and I won't dive into it too deep. But bottom line was Minnesota is a run-first team that is explosive when they pass the ball, but they don't pass the ball very much. They're still very low in the pass rate, very high in the run rate, especially on early downs in the first three quarters of a football game.

But when I dug into what I thought they were going to do in Seattle last week, I researched the fact that when they went to Seattle last year and put up 30 points, they went from being a very run-heavy team in all their other games to a very pass-heavy team early on in that game last season. And that's how they were able to actually hold a lead at halftime in 2019. Was because they switched it up. Seattle was a good run defense. They decided to pass the ball on these guys.

And that's exactly what they did. And we saw, though, that with a defensive-oriented coach and Mike Zimmer and a nice little lead that they had there, 13 to nothing, I believe, they decided to sort of go into a shell. They turtled up, is what I say. They kind of just pulled everything in tight, played a little bit more conservative with their play calls, tried to run the football a little bit more and didn't have a lot of success in doing so. And that just allowed Seattle to get right back in the game. I expect in this particular game at home against the Atlanta Falcons that we're going to go back to seeing the typical Minnesota offense, which is more run-based and more conservative from the jump. Still nice explosive gains in the passing attack, but we're not going to see a high pass rate like we did last week. I still think that they're probably going to be able to gain a little bit of an edge, but I also think when they do hold a lead in this game, they're going to be turtling up as well.

And I just don't trust Matt Ryan. I don't know about Julio Jones if he is or is not playing. I don't know if he's 100%. He's probably not. And I just don't really trust Atlanta to do enough on their end. So if you're catching what I'm throwing downhouse, this is why the total has been bet down from 57, 56 and a half down to where it sits at 54. I mean, it is, to me at least, pretty absurd to hang a total on a Minnesota.

on a Mike Zimmer coached Minnesota Vikings game at 57, the only reasonable explanation or why you would want to be doing something like that is because they're playing a team like Seattle who has a never-die attitude with one of the best QBs in the game. And you got D.K. Metcalf and company able to run routes and make up margin very quickly and put up points in bunches. Atlanta has not had that type of success. People view Atlanta's offense as this explosive, ridiculously great offense.

and they really are a shadow of what they once were with that Kyle Shanahan explosive offense from several years ago. So I just find it difficult to believe that they're going to be able to do a whole lot in this game to propel the game over the total. And if Minnesota's up in this game, they're not going to keep building on the final score. You may be missing Dalvin Cook here. The run game's probably going to be a little bit less efficient. I don't envision them doing enough to send this over on their own.

So I think this is going to be a game that the defense of Atlanta may look a little bit stronger due to that coaching change, but I'm not quite sure what we're going to get out of that offense. Well, you've just talked me into staying away from choosing a side here because it doesn't sound like there's any value in laying the points with Minnesota minus the four. but I am convinced that even though we did not get the total at 57, that 54 is still attractive enough. And I might jump in on an under for this because of the combination of what you just outlined, Minnesota with its conservative game plan and what we saw against Seattle, unlikely to repeat itself in Atlanta with a more motivated defense. still a little value at 54, do you think? By my model, not enough to actually wager on it,

but if you want to try to play the angle of things that my model is not probably taking into consideration, which is a coach just got fired and this defense may be playing a little bit stronger. And you have to handicap things from like a game flow perspective as well. This is why the books are never going to beat us when we're betting totals. And this game could have any type of result. So I'm not suggesting on this game that I'm going to be absolutely right. But what I'm saying is that we're incorporating so many other things into the way that we're capping our game,

in addition to just the pure numbers that come out from the model, that these odds makers have no ability, zero ability when they're setting the line to do as much work as we're able to do on these things and different things to consider. But absolutely when you've got a team like Minnesota, you have to look at, okay, well, are they favored here? And what is their tempo going to be and their pace and how aggressive are they going to get? And what happens if they get a lead and what are they going to do? And all these other types of things you have to factor in. So the other thing here that we didn't discuss is one of the reasons that we've that we hated Minnesota to start the season. And I think it's funny house because we talked for like in the pod before week one, in the pod after week one and before week two.

about how we are fading the Vikings and we don't like the Vikings. And then ever since you asked me, should we fade them like for the third consecutive week? And I said, no, I'm not doing that anymore. And they've gone on their little run here where if you've been fading them, you've been losing your wallet because their team to be betting on at that point in time. It is interesting. Like one of the reasons we didn't like them is because they had so many moving parts on defense and so many pieces that were being changed out on that.

defense. But over the course of the season, this defense is going to get coached up. This defense is going to get better. These pieces that were young and new and didn't know how to interact with one another are going to have a lot of practice and game time play and film study to figure out what they should be doing with one another. And they are going to get better. So the opinions of what you held on certain teams and certain weaknesses in week one may change by the time you get to week five and week six and week seven. So you just have to continue to evolve your thought process on these teams and games because they're people, they're individuals that are working together and they can get smarter. They can get healthier. And so it's a living organism that you have to try to

figure out and get your hands around. See, this is why I love doing this podcast. And we have this opportunity to share with all of our wagering wizards out there this kind of insight, because one of the things that we talked about just last week going into week five was precisely the point you were making right now, which is we now have four games under our belt entering week five. And in a normal situation, that would be a preseason, right? Like all of these teams in this 2020 NFL season have had to learn their personnel, their strengths and weaknesses, what's going to work, what's not going to work all on the fly in live game experiments and things of course are going to change teams that have a successful

footprint successful infrastructure for competing weekend and week out and i think minnesota fits that category right mike zimmer's been pretty sound over his tenure in minnesota there are a lot of favorable angles with minnesota that presents an opportunity and we did indeed talk about you know we put the brakes on on fading Minnesota after week three. And here we are. I liked them last week. I played them last week.

Now, I'm not going to touch the side because I just don't have enough certainty. I don't want to lay the points with Minnesota. But I am going to play the dead coach bounce under 54 because I do like a lot of the points that you've made in terms of the strength of defenses on both sides of the ball and Minnesota likely more conservative game plan. It may not work out. But I'm going to go ahead and play that dead. coach bounce under.

Yeah, and we're going to talk later in this show, I think on one of the games that we're going to break down, simply about variance in results and just putting yourself an opportunity situation to make money. So that's the thing that you want to do is you want to find those angles that you think you have the advantage and you want to bet them and you want to always bet them. And you know that when a game's played 100 times, you'll end up making money. And in a single event result, you may lose. money, but when you do that 100 times, you're going to eventually make money.

And so that's the type of thing we're going to discuss later on with one of these games. Yes. Well, let's go ahead and get to the slate that is in front of us this week. By my count, I think there are, there's a good argument to say we have three marquee games. I don't know if you agree, but we have the Packers and the Bucks, two legendary quarterbacks. the Packers are traveling to Tampa. We have this incredibly curious and interesting matchup. The AFC North is the best conference in the National Football League.

And we have a four and O team up against a four and one team. The Steelers and the Browns are on the marquee card potentially. And then we have the Chiefs at Buffalo, where you know two teams that have showed very well so far this season. So can we call all three of those games, marquee games? Yeah, I think so. I mean, the marquee of the Bills game is obviously Monday night, early Monday night game. This schedule thing is doing some crazy stuff here. But no, you're right. And if we talk about the AFC North, what did we say before the season? I believe that A, A, the Cleveland Browns are better than people think. And B, that there will be three teams that make the playoffs from the AFC North. So we'll see a long way to go in the season, a long way to go. As I was talking to a coach. yesterday on a team is doing really good. But, you know, the thought process is we are still a long way to go in a season that could get extended, right? Could get extended more weeks. The season could be

even longer than we think it is going to be right now. But yes, that is absolutely a game I'm really looking forward to. Let's talk about it. Pittsburgh home, laying three and a half against the Browns, and a couple things jump out. So, you know, Pittsburgh. 4 and O to their credit taking care of business, but it's been against bad teams. They've played, their opponents have a combined 3, 15 and 1, straight up record,

which is, you know, not very good. Their defense has looked good against these bad teams. They're sixth in points per game allowed. They're fourth in yards per play allowed. First and quarterback pressure percentage created. But look at the, The quarterbacks are playing or Daniel Jones and Jeff Driscoll and Carson Wentz who's still

kind of trying to find his way in the defense, you know, a good success rate so far, but against run and pass offenses that are not very impressive. What are we to make of this situation? You're absolutely right. We're dealing with some teams that have exceeded our expectations, especially the Steelers. My early opinion of them this offseason or this season rather was I would, I wasn't a big fan. When I look at what they did

versus the Giants and the Broncos and the Texans, they're losing to the Texans. They're allowing 21 first half points to the Houston Texans, whose offense was so bad, it ends up getting Bill O'Brien fired just the following after the next game for them.

And yet they're leading in Pittsburgh, 21 and putting up 21 first half points. I wasn't all that impressed by the Steelers' defense in general because while the Steelers' defense ranks really well overall. They've played the second easiest schedule of opposing offenses. I just rattled off some of these teams. You know they're quarterbacks. They're not very good. And yeah, the Steelers ranked 16th against the pass. And they actually rank second worst against explosive passing. So the Steelers have this unique, like they're the best team in the NFL at applying pressure,

but they also are second worst in explosive plays. They're either this, they're just this massive boom or bus type defense where they're either getting after your quarterback and sacking you or they're not getting that pressure and they're allowing big chunk plays over the top. And one of the things that we know that the Browns are, especially Baker Mayfield is, is he's kind of a boom or bust quarterback. If he's pressured, he's terrible. But if he's able to avoid that pressure or the line's able to pick it up, he will be able to throw the ball down the field and have chunk in. It's important that Odell Beckham Jr. is playing this game for the Browns, which he was sent home due to illness. We can inform everybody if you didn't catch the news earlier today that his COVID test that came

back Friday morning was negative. So fortunately, that's a positive for him and the Browns team. And hopefully he'll be able to be back in the building as soon as possible. But it does not look like he's going to have to miss this game due to any COVID-related issues at the present moment. So I think the Steelers defense is a good defense, but they are problematic. And we're talking about three past defenses that they've played on the season that literally rank number 29, number 30, and number 31. So we don't know what they would have done against the Tennessee Titans because that game was canceled.

Last week, the Eagles had a battered offensive line, no-named wide receivers, a previously unknown guy named Travis Fulgum. he catches 10 of 13 targets for 152 yards, nine first downs and a 77% success rate. On the other hand, if you look at what the Cleveland Browns have dealt with season to date in terms of defenses, they've played an absolutely brutal schedule of defenses.

They've played the exact opposite of the Steelers, where the Steelers defense is playing this super easy schedule of offenses, the Brown's offense is playing this super ridiculously tough schedule of opposing defenses. They've played the NFL's number two most difficult schedule of past defenses season to date. They've played three top five total defenses, four top 10 past defenses so far this year. So, you know, the Steelers having this 16th ranked past defense that has played one of the easier schedules in the league that shouldn't necessarily scare

the Cleveland Browns offense. I think the Cleveland Browns may have some success as long as they can keep Baker Mayfield upright. I think we're going to get some production there. On the other side of the ballhouse. This is where I think the matchup gets even more interesting because I haven't loved what I've seen from the Steelers offense, but now you've got Chase Claypool in the mix, and that is massive against a team like the Browns and where they are right now at this point in the season due to health with regard to their secondary, because the Steelers are the best passing offense that the Browns have faced this year. But the Browns just played a game in the Colts that some people were betting on the Colts to win, that it was an upset,

and I wasn't one of those people. I thought the Browns had some excellent opportunities to go out and win that game and score some points, and obviously that's what they were able to do. But keep in mind, the Colts were without their number two and number three wide receivers. They weren't able to take advantage of the weakness of this Brown secondary, which is their health. Right now they're down multiple starters. It does not look like Greedy Williams is going to be back.

for a while. They need him as a cornerback. Carl Joseph, their starting safety, he's probably going to be out this game. Ronnie Harrison, who came in and filled in for him, he was concussed last week. He hasn't practiced yet this week. They're really hoping he's going to be back for this game. But Steelers use three plus wide receivers on 80% of their passing plays. And that's probably going to stay the same or increase with Clay's Chapult bursting onto the scene. in the last game. Now they've got a core of wide receivers who can be mismatches on all different levels and each has a unique skill set and height and size and speed advantages. Different guys do different things a lot. No real guys are, you know, type A and type A. You've got a lot of different

types at that wide receiving court to do different things. The Cowboys, we know the Cowboys lost to the Cleveland Browns, but that was the best passing attack that the Browns' defense has faced so far this year and the Cowboys recorded 8.7 yards per attempt a 62% success rate and plus 0.29 EPA when passing from three plus wide receiver sets. And in addition, the Browns recorded pressure on only 15% of those dropbacks. When the Cowboys dropped back in three plus wide receivers, the Browns recorded just one sack on 53 dropbacks and a ridiculously low 15% pressure rate. the Steelers are going to do the same thing. Spread them out.

Hopefully take away Miles Garrett, like double him up, use a tight end or somebody to help chip, give a little bit of support, a back out of the backfield, and let Ben throw the ball down the field. There's a lot of storylines with the Miles Garrett Revenge game and all these other angles going on here in what is obviously a heated divisional rivalry type game that's been like that for years, although I guess some people say you can't call it a rivalry when Mike Tomlin is 21, 4, and 1 against Cleveland as a head coach. So it hasn't been a rivalry until the little brother gets beat up all the time,

actually lays a whoopin on the big brother. But maybe we'll see something close to that. Maybe we'll see there's certainly a lot of dislike involved with these two teams. Yeah, that's right. And as you were going through that breakdown of the defensive analysis, the one thing. So I'm kind of convinced to maybe stay away from sides. on this one because the three and a half,

even though I'm always in favor of grabbing a little bit of a hook action, I like maybe Cleveland getting the three and a half there because it's north of the traditional three. The thing that's really appealing to me is that 51 over under total, and I'm really feeling an over. As you're describing the ways that these two offenses might exploit the weaknesses and their particular circumstances in the secondary of each, team and perhaps a slightly overinflated overall ranking for Pittsburgh's defense, you know,

the reputation exceeds this matchup perhaps. I might go jump in a little bit on that total, maybe a little overaction. Can you support me on that? So this total actually opened at around 51 at some spots and then was taking a little bit of under money down to 50. Then it took some over money and it got as high as 52 at some spots. And now we're back at back at basically the equilibrium point of 51. Now, 51 is somewhat of a key number.

So whether you like the under, whether you like the over here, you're in a good spot because you can get the 51. And that's somewhat of a number that lands more frequently for sure than 50 or 52. So you're in a good position there, whichever side that you decide you want to be on from a totals perspective. I think the health of Lodell Beckham is paramount. the way that we talked about the Steelers is they're like this boom or bust defense. Either they're getting pressure on you. And keep in mind, turnovers are a positive when we're talking about points

being scored. Often, like you might think it from a negative like it's an even 50-50, like, oh my God, well, if we're driving and we're going about to score in the red zone and we turn a ball over, that's a negative. Yes, that does happen. But it's less frequent that that's going to be the result. There's bottom line is the more turnovers you get, the higher the score is going to be in general. And with the way the Steelers play, it is this boom or bust type defense. They could get after Baker,

sack, fumble him, take the ball away, or they're not getting that pressure, hitting home, and Baker's going over the top. But in order to do that, in order to hit that second part, you need O'Dell Beckham Jr. in there.

And if there is no O'Dell Beckham Jr., this Cleveland Brown's team is nowhere near as explosive enough as it needs to be to get the ball down the field to do what they would need to do to get close to hitting this over, in my opinion. So if Odell's there, I can maybe believe that that's a play that you would want to get behind. If Odell is not there, I would have no interest in trying to go over the number of 51. Okay.

So this is a Sunday morning. You wake up, you check the injury report, you see whatever the health reports are on Odell and make your play from that point. I would just say, I'm rooting for little brother to come up and do something to Big Brother. I mean, the Browns, and this is all legacy stuff, they just get their ass kick by the Steelers. They're 0 and 16 straight up in their last 16 games in Pittsburgh. And then the average losing margins, 12 and a half points. Just one time, Browns, show up and give it to them a little bit, right?

There's a new kid on the block. Stefansky's in town and he's bringing Baker and the boys in. Let's have a little bit of a competitive game for one. I absolutely love Stefansky. At this point in the season, you're not going to hear me say a negative word about him. He's been doing a lot of really good things for this team. I think that, you know, Baker's got to continue to execute. It's going to come down to Baker.

I think the plays that's DeFanke's likely to call are going to be plus EV type plays. Baker's just got to be able to execute. And there's going to be times, I mean, this is, the only difficult thing about this game house from the Browns perspective or from the over perspective is that Carson Wentz, he's a dude who's going to be able to hang in the pocket and throw the ball down the field. Like say what you will about him not performing quite as well this season as he's done in seasons past. When he's under pressure, the one thing about Carson that you know that you're going to get is you're not going to get a guy who just falls down quickly

and wants to get out of there. That's one of the knocks against Carson Went to the Steelers defense played last week who was able to put up 29 points. in Pittsburgh. He's the type of guy who, to his detriment sometimes, stands in there, tries to make something out of nothing and throw the ball down the field. Baker is the kind of guy who bails on things when there's pressure. And so it's, and he's already dealing with some ribs that are apparently okay. And he's been practicing through it. And he's getting close to 100 percent. And he's definitely trending towards the direction that he's going to play. I will say, though, House, I will say one thing that you might find a little bit controversial, but we should move on to another game and

explore this at a later time, that I don't necessarily know how much the drop-off is if Case Keenham comes in there. If Baker does get knocked out of this game, if Case Keenum is the guy at quarterback, I don't really know if it's that substantial of a drop-off. I think Case Keenum is probably not that much of a drop-off in this offense being able to execute what Kevin Savansky wants him to do, than Baker Mayfield, in my opinion. Well, I hold Case Keatim in very high regard because he, at the outset of the 2019 season, with the Washington almost professional, might be professional football team when they're going by their old nickname, put it on the Philadelphia Eagles in week one.

The first half, that team, my home team was up like, you know, 17 to nothing or something. And he looked like a world beater. Of course, it's Washington. So they lost that game and then lost that season. in case Keatom was gone. But, you know, I'm a believer in Keenum. So I like that point that you just made. But let's please move on.

We have a Legends game staring us here in the face. Tom Brady, Aaron Rogers. It's not often that you get two eminences going up against one another. We have really, you know, 20-some years of NFL, high-quality performance out of these guys and all kinds of records and titles across the board. I have right now the Packers, I'm looking at a line where the Packers are favored going into Tampa Bay, which I thought was a tiny bit disrespectful,

tiny bit disrespectful to the Buccaneers, tiny bit disrespectful to Tampa. What's your thought? I mean, Tampa still has a very good defense, top 10 success rate defensively against both the run and the pass. what am I missing here? Well, look, let's start by talking about Tampa's offense and what they might do against this Packers defense.

And I think what people aren't discussing enough of is just how bad this Packers defense is yet again. And how lucky they've actually gotten that they're not worse because every single week they've played an opponent, that opponent so far the season has been without their number one wide receiver slash deep threat. So let's start with the most recent game and work backwards. They were off a buy.

They didn't play week five. Week four, they play the Falcons with an injured Julio Jones. He limps around for 21% of the snaps and then he goes out. Calvin Ridley's not at 100% either. The prior game, they play the Saints who are without Michael Thomas. We know how important Michael Thomas has been to that offense. The prior week to that, they play the Detroit Lions without Kenny Gulladay. You know, he's a deep threat.

He's a big time receiver for that offense. he wasn't there. And then week one, the Vikings were not even starting. They have Justin Jefferson, who's their to be number one wide receiver. We've seen what he's able to do the last few weeks, but back in week one, they didn't even start him. I don't know, like they had to ease him into the offense, I guess. And they were also without Stefan Diggs their first game, right? That was the first game of the season playing without Stefan Diggs in that offense. So they didn't have like two of their best receivers from, you know, the end of the 2019 season. which was, you know, Stefan Diggs, who was their number one before,

and then their current number one, who wasn't even starting back in week one. So this defense for the Green Bay Packers, probably even worse. And if the Bucks are able to get back Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, and they're fortunate that they had a long rest since the game against Chicago. So Tampa is off of a mini-buye, Green Bay is off of a full buy, which is actually slightly shorter because I believe they played on Monday night. So it wasn't the full rest as a typical team gets two weeks of Sunday to Sunday. Two weeks later, they played a little bit shorter.

And the Bucks were off of a Thursday that same game. So they only played a couple days after Green Bay last. So both of these teams are rested. Both of these teams should be good to go. And I'm looking at a big weakness of the Packers, which was a weakness of theirs last year, which is dealing with 12 personnel. And one thing that the bucks have been strong is is passing from 12 personnel. I know they're down OJ Howard, but even against the tough bears defense passes from 12, delivered

plus the 0.3-1 EPA. They were throwing a lot of different tight end combinations out there on the field, trying to figure out who was going to step into O.J. Howard's shoes. I think the film study and the tape study that they had with this extra rest should allow them to try to figure out who's going to be that secondary tight end that they're going to be able to use. when they pass from 12 on the season, they're gaining 9.3 yards per attempt, 56% success rate,

and the Packers have struggled to stop 12, allowed 9.0 yards per attempt to 54% success rate, and plus 0.24 EPA to 12. They're much better against 11. They struggle to perform against 12. The one thing I'll note on this side of the ballhouse is the fact that Tampa uses play action really well, but they're not using it enough.

So I think Tampa needs to really, Bruce Arons needs to dramatically up his usage of play action. The average team is using play action on early downs about 33% of the time. Tampa uses it just 25% of the time. It's the sixth least in the NFL, but look at their splits. When they use it, 10.2 yards per pass attempt.

When they don't, 6.4. When they use it, a 54% success rate. When they don't, 45% success. when they use it plus 0.22 EPA, when they don't use it minus 0.05. Only four teams see a larger positive swing in EPA when you use it. Only three teams see a larger swing in yards per attempt when you use play action. So they are among the top of the league in terms of seeing their efficiency boosted by play action, but they use it the sixth least often of any team in the NFL. I know Tom Brady would benefit by using more play action.

They absolutely need to increase that rate. I have zero confidence all of a sudden, House, that they're going to do it for this game. I'm just saying long term, this is what Bruce Ariens needs to be looking at, and this is what this offense needs to do in order to provide Tom Brady with a better benefit than just having him drop back over and over

because they do have a pretty high pass rate. They're the fourth highest pass rate team in the NFL, and I think you need to incorporate more play action on those dropbacks, rather than just having Tom Brady nakedly drop back as often as Bruce Ariens is having him do. I'm really shocked to hear how infrequently they're using play action. I'm very pleased that I have the opportunity to discuss it with you

because that insight is really telling. The one thing that I feel like we watched was a crucial element of Tom Brady's success in New England was play action. action. Like they ran play action. It feels like to me every single play, somebody who was in motion virtually every single play. And they, they, you know, would always, you know, do some kind of gesture with the running back. It just felt like it was 100% of the time in New England. And so Tom's comfort level down there. And we talked about this a little bit after that bears, you know,

victory over Tampa, Tom's overall comfort level with the entire situation down in Tampa. just a little bit of a short fuse. You saw him yelling at teammates and so forth. He's definitely uncomfortable with a number of penalties that the dumbass buccaneers commit under dumbass arians. But this play action thing, it seems like a no-brainer, a low-hanging fruit, to let Tom go ahead and get a little bit of comfort with this offense.

He's got all these weapons. Let him work. Let Tom cook Warren Sharp. But alongside of that, please stop committing the dumb-ass penalties, Tampa. Well, and that's going to be a problem because you're going up against Aaron Rogers, who what does this guy love to do? What have we seen him do, especially on the road? We have seen him in these environments where there's no crowd noise,

and you can influence the defense unlike you've been able to do in years past any other year. I even sent to a coach who is about to go on a road game, a clip of a playoff game in that exact stadium from like 15 years ago. where a road team went in there. And we don't even see this house, but this is just like, this is just mind-blowing how the quarterback, the crowd noise,

he was backed up at like his own 10-yard line. So in the end zone where the opponent is trying to score a touchdown. And the quarterback for this team who's on the road, the crowd noise is so loud. He is walking down. Remember how these guys, the quarterback had to walk down to his left tackle. Then he had to walk down to his right tackle,

tell these guys the snap counts. Then he goes back under center with a few seconds left on the play clock, hikes the ball, the right tackle, didn't hear what the quarterback had told him, so he was on the wrong snap count, and the left defensive end comes right around him because the guy's still in the stance,

sack, fumble, turns into a safety in the end zone with the ball bouncing around on the ground and knocks out of the back of the end zone. I mean, this is what opposing quarterbacks had to deal with on the road. And now you've got in 2020, a guy like Aaron Rogers who will hard count the crap out of an undisciplined defensive line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, get these guys to jump offside.

It is going to be an excellent cat and mouse game between Aaron Rogers as the road quarterback here against this defense that, like you said, has been heavily penalized. In addition, you look at the Bucks defense and you initially indicated, like, they're the number two defense. They've got their number three against the run. They're number four against the pass. is a great defense. And yes, they are. And I absolutely love Todd Bowles. But let me be real for one moment here. Let's examine the quarterbacks that the Bucks pass defenses face. We're talking about

rookie Justin Herbert, backup Jeff Driscoll, backup Brett Rippin, Nick Foles, limp-armed Drew Breeze, and Teddy Bridgewater. Now, you can say a couple of good things about a couple of those guys. Like, I like Teddy. Drew, if he's on, is fine. But he, obviously, we know his struggles this season. Like, this is not a murderer's row of quarterbacks that this defense has looked really good against. Now you're going out against one of the hottest QBs in the NFL, who now we talk to, you know, we have to be fair, equal time here for both sides.

We talked about the weaknesses of the Packers defense because they've gone up against a lot of teams without the number one wide receiver. Well, Aaron Rogers has done a lot of these statistics and put up these numbers without the use of his number one, Devante Adams, who he now gets back for this game and is fully healthy. So I think that there are some benefits here for Aaron Rogers against this defense, even though it's good. And I can't wait to see the cat and mouse matchup on that side of the ball

with Aaron Rogers trying to fool this defense and this defense trying to fool him as well. Man, I can't wait. I'm not going to touch this game. I just want to enjoy it. I'm not going to bet aside. And the totals at like 55 and a half. I don't.

It's just, it feels crazy to me. I don't want to touch it. Well, you're going to get to watch this game house because the NFL are a bunch of bumbling buffoons. And took two, I believe took two 4 p.m.

games that they had to get canceled from this weekend's card, which were the jets and the charters and the dolphins and the Broncos. They took two of those games that were supposed to kick it four. Obviously, they've jumbled up the schedule. And then they actually, added two games to the schedule this week, but they're putting both at one o'clock. So we have nine games at one o'clock. The only late kicks we've got is the Adam Gasebowl at

405, which is the Jets and the Dolphins. And then we've got this game, the Packers and the Bucks. Now, I love the Packers and the Bucks. I'm going to watch that game. But for the love of God, why in the world would we not have another 4 p.m. kickoff, a 425 kickoff that we could have to enjoy instead of throwing nine games here, now everybody with the direct TV Sunday ticket with the eight box grid is going to have to have one of their other TVs tied up with this ninth game.

And then we're going to be sitting here with twiddling our thumbs during the commercials on the Tampa Bay game and being forced to watch how much 11 personnel, Adam Gase, is going to trot out onto the football field this week, whether it's 90% or 99% and just completely be frustrated

with the outcome of that game. There's zero excuse for the way that the NFL has scheduled this weekend. And they really need to take a hard look at themselves in the mirror and have a real face-to-face with how they're doing things because it's a disservice to us, the viewer's house. Nothing makes you madder than that. It's just stupid. It just doesn't make any sense at all. It makes zero sense. Well, that's the point.

They denigrate the product. It's their product. They have all these delicious matchups. We all want to consume it throughout the day. we have a rhythm to our Sunday lives and the NFL is depriving us of maximum enjoyment. I'm going to come up with a name for this segment. I'm going to think about it.

It's like the NFL scheduling shithead moment or something, but I don't necessarily want to have a curse be the brand. But we're going to brand this. We're going to just keep lobbying every single week where the one o'clocks have way too many. It's overweight, over heavy one o'clock. Maybe that's it. The two heavy one o'clock.

right the the I don't want to uh fat shame I'll fat shame the NFL right I can I'm happy to do that it's the way too fat way too heavy one o'clock slate anyway that's going to be I know it's going to continue to be a complaint of yours through the rest of the season and I'm going to enjoy it it's always a rich made for you because you get so goddamn mad about anytime you stick more than eight one p.m. games on you you have a massive problem and actually it should be less than that I'm not just talking about for the benefit of watching it on the Sunday ticket, which obviously they force everybody to get direct TV, AT&T, whatever the hell they call themselves now, to get that product, that overpriced product. But the fact is that it just doesn't make any sense at all to be able to watch and consume their product in these games. And I know they have their TV deals and they want to have their standalone, you know, nice nationally audience games for some of these.

and they can talk about, oh, my God, the ratings, the ratings. Look at how many people are watching this Tampa Bay Green Bay game. But let's get real. Like, your product is king of the sports world. It's not going anywhere. You don't have to have, like, the number one rated game since 1985 at 4.25 p.m. this weekend for us to love your product. Like, we know your product is great.

Everybody knows how much better the NFL is than any other sport in the United States. state. So, like, it's not going to change this year. It was the same thing last year and the year before and the year before that. It's going to be the same next year and then year after that. Let's just give us some other games to enjoy here. Let's carry on now. Yeah, let's carry on. We are going to keep complaining, though. All right, look, I have a couple games. We went through the barquee games. Well, maybe Chiefs Buffalo will touch on a bit in a minute. But I want to make sure that we hit on my betting card because this is by far the most important thing to me. And I'm so happy to have this segment where I have you available to help me either confirm a

play or get myself out of trouble. So two games that I'm looking at this week. And, you know, I'm kind of like, do I want to tease or just play them straight up? So one game that I like very much. And this is a classic contrarian opportunity. is San Francisco at home against the L.A. Rams. Now, that line opened at three and a half, and it's been bouncing between three and a half and three over the course of the week.

I'm looking at it right now. The Rams are favored by three at San Francisco, and I like the San Francisco side. I mean, there is all kinds of reasons to be enamored of the Rams and to be impressed by what they've done. They've been flying cross country. It feels like every single week. And they've been kicking the NFC East ass.

I think all of their wins are against the NFC East. But in San Francisco, by contradistinction, just got worked by the Miami Dolphins and Grandpa Chan Galey. Grandpa Galey brought the heavy lumber last week, Warren Sharp. The dolphins were up 21 to 7 before I even knew that game was on television. I mean, before I even realized that it started. uh grandpa galey maybe did something there but i i like san francisco in this particular position this feels like they're getting a little bit healthier at the most important position which

is jimmy gropolo uh who obviously had ankle issues lingering last week uh share with us a little bit of thinking on this san francisco rams thing well i don't know how much healthier jimmy g is is going to be this week and i i could spend we could talk about this game for its own podcast if we really wanted to, because there's two things to discuss here. One is just the matchups. I love when these two coaches go against each other. Sean McVeigh, Kyle Shanahan, that's what I'm tuning in for. I'm watching these two masterminds try to call plays against one another and out duel one another.

I love it. It's like a showdown at the OK Corral, in my opinion, with these guys. You know, I have to interrupt you because this breaks my heart. You know where both of those guys. I mean, they coached together. I know, I know. I know. son of a gun. I interrupted you. God forbid. Okay, I'll stop. Go ahead. Keep going.

You're 100% correct. They were in D.C. couldn't hang on to them. And obviously, we're seeing them flourish and develop elsewhere. Damn it. Shaking my damn head. I've been impressed by some of things that Sean McVeigh has done over the last couple of games. I would still rate Kyle Shane Hanham 1A over Sean McVe. That opinion, for me, at least, hasn't even changed. It was the same in 2018 when Kyle Shanahan's team was 4 and 12 and Sean McBay was going to the Super Bowl. So I'm not saying I'm keeping them at that same exact level. But both these guys are obviously very good at what they do.

And it's fun watching them go up against each other. We could talk about all the X&Os with both of these teams and strength of schedules, which there's a lot to discuss with strengths of schedule here and who's played tough opponents and who has not. The travel you mentioned has been ridiculous for the Rams. but we're already running along on this pod house. And where I want to focus my attention here is just the simple fact that this is like a teaching point here, this number is wrong.

And if you are betting sports professionally, you will bet the side of the team that's getting this value every single week, every single season. And when you do that, you are going to ultimately make money. Whether or not you make money in this game is a total coin flip. It's to be determined. But long term, you will be making money. And that is the side of the San Francisco 49ers. And let me tell you why. This line, when we had the summertime lines. And here's the fun part about it. House, I think you've got my book. I wrote to 2020 football preview. Oh, I haven't. If you don't have the book, you can get it up a sharp football analysis. But that book, okay, goes through and it has a chapter on every single,

team. And I list the lines for every single game before the season started. And these were lines that you could actually bet at the casinos in Las Vegas and some offshore books before the season started. And you know what this number was before the season started? The L.A. Rams plus seven. And when we got to the start of, you know, last week? So before last week's game, you know what this line was? It was the L.A. Rams plus three. And then we see what happens in this game last week where the San Francisco 49ers look terrible. And unfortunately, House, I saw it from the very first drop

back where Jimmy G, it was like a third in seven, third and eight, it was their first series of the game. And he drops back in the pocket. And he just, it's like his feet, we're in concrete. He wasn't hot-stepping to try to shift his weight

and get into his pass that he was throwing to the left side of the field to try to get that first down. He throws the ball incomplete. and I was like, uh-oh, this guy might not be 100% in this game. He might have come back a little bit too soon to try to win this game after having, after they lost to the Philadelphia Eagles the prior week. And lo and behold, that's exactly what was correct.

Now, Kyle Shanahan did say after the game that while Jimmy G. was obviously terrible, he pulled him to save him from himself and not put him out there because his ankle wasn't 100%. But if the game was actually close, he would have kept him in there. And if the game was close, it probably was because Kyle Shanahan saw that Jimmy G. was actually performing okay. The game's not going to be close when you're throwing those interceptions and you're looking that crappy, right?

So of course, he's going to probably keep him in because he's not throwing those interceptions. He's looking a little bit better. And now the game is close and you got a shot to win. This is a game where the San Francisco 49ers are sitting at two and three on the season. If they drop this game, they're moving to two and four. So this is a clear must-win game for the 49ers. They off of a Super Bowl loss, Super Bowl hangover type thing, they need to come back and try to win this game.

But when the sports books reopened this line, so some of the books out in Vegas keep the line down a little bit longer than others. So like the Westgate out in Las Vegas, the Superbook, when they reposted this game, it was San Francisco before the game against the Dolphins. It was San Francisco minus three for this game right here. They take the game off the board. When they repost it, it is the first. Rams minus 3. The line has switched six full points. And what happened in the interim was a couple of the

offshore books posted the number very quickly after the conclusion of that game. And they reposted the same line, San Francisco minus 3 as what it was. And it just took massive amounts of volume. It moved within 15 minutes on that betting on that market all the way to the Rams minus 3. So it shifted the full six points within 15 minutes on that light early betting market that doesn't have very high limits and that, you know, we'll move a lot when somebody's betting it. And so that's what prompted, you know, the Superbook to repost this thing at, at with the Rams minus three. So we're talking about a six point line move with Jimmy G. Now, is Jimmy G playing? It looks like he's going to play. He practiced in full the other day. And there's no way with as big of a game this is that Kyle Shanahan is not going to want to. to try to get Jimmy G out there. We have to hope if we're taking the 49ers that Jimmy G is

closer to 100% than he looks. So again, in a nutshell, we can talk about matchups here. I don't really want to dive into that. But what I do want to say is just the teaching point here, when you're seeing a massive flip in a number or a massive situation where a team could not look any worse, look, 49ers have been seven point favorites or more in both of their last two games. And they lost both of those games outright. They lost to the Eagles on primetime and national TV, and they lost to the dolphins last week outright. The perception of these guys is at the lowest that we can get.

This is a Sunday night football game. What did we talk about prior to the game where the 49ers were hosting the Philadelphia Eagles? The Eagles were coming off of a tie against the Cincinnati Bengals. I think they were 02 and 1 on the season at that point in time. And we said, if you think the 49ers are the best, better team, that's fine, but you cannot bet this game. And the reason why, for the 49ers, and the reason why is you are selling the Eagles at the lowest point on the betting market.

If you try to bet against the Eagles now, you do not stand any chance of making money long term with that mentality because you cannot sell a team when it's at the lowest point of the market. And what happens, the Eagles win that game outright. And the same type of thing is happening here. If you are going to bet on this game, in my opinion, even if it may lose, you have to take the 49ers. You can pass the game if you want, but you cannot bet the rams here selling the 49ers at the lowest point on the market, number one, number two, with such a massive line swing from minus seven to start, you know, before the season starts, to minus three before last week's game, to now plus three and a half. It doesn't make any sense

for the line to swing that much. And so that is why the professionals, will hold their nose. Now, I could say some matchup edges for the 49ers here, but I'm not even going to get into it. I'm just going to say, you're going to hold your nose and you're going to bet the 49ers if you want to bet aside on this game and hope that it covers and it wins for you.

And if it doesn't this time, you're going to do the same exact thing every single other time that you see this opportunity and you know that you're going to make money long term. Well, I absolutely love it. And the insight into how that line has moved a six point line swing driven entirely by market behavior that the general public really doesn't have a full grasp of that I, my own self, don't have a full grasp of. It's an opportunity.

And like you say, we try and coach everybody on this pod to bet with discipline. And so when you see an opportunity like that, this might not work out, right? I mean, the Rams might win. They might win by more than three and and and and it would be a loss uh on this week's betting card but we're trying to to help with with some discipline you're trying to impose some discipline on my betting card i have one more uh what feels like an opportunity um bet that i want to bounce off of you and uh and then we'll call it a wrap for for week six and that is the dallas cowboys getting points from the arizona card Cardinals. This line opened at Arizona minus three. I believe both the public and some sharp money has come in on Dallas. It's now down to one. But I still like this idea of Dallas at home. Dallas has not covered a game this whole season. They're 0 and 5 against the spread. But I don't have any basis for thinking that the Arizona Cardinals are better than the Dallas Cowboys, even within.

Andy Dalton at quarterback, which I think actually creates some interesting new matchup opportunities for Dallas. I just love this opportunity to get Dallas getting some points at home in a position against a team that I don't think is better than them. Yeah. Look, Dallas, we're in a similar situation here where we have a different quarterback. And we didn't know that we were going to have that different quarterback until the game concludes, right, with DAC breaking his ankle or, you know, and the gruesome nature of that injury.

But what we thought heading into this game was Dallas was going to be a three-point favorite. That's what the look-ahead line was just a week ago. And now, of a sudden, Andy Dalton is injected into this offense and the line completely switched, right? And it became the Arizona Cardo's laying two and a half points here. And so the presumption is that DAC Prescott is worth close to five and a half points moving from a key number almost to another key number from three to almost three on the other side of the ledger. And I don't necessarily know that that's the case. I definitely disagree with that fundamental principle because I think Annie Dalton is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, best backup quarterbacks in the NFL on any roster. I think his experience in games like this, you know, obviously there's this primetime Dalton thing

that used to be an issue. But I don't think that there's going to be any pressure right now on the Dallas Cowboys. See, this is my perception of this team. There was a lot of pressure. Oh, my God, we got to write the ship. What the hell are we doing? We've got a new coaching staff. We've got Dak Prescott. We've got this offense of all these skill positions. Our defense is sucking. Like we got an opportunity in the NFC East this year. We're just completely blowing it. And everything has been so super negative in that city, in my opinion. All of our nationwide perception of that city and that team has been so super negative. Now I'm not in that city. I don't talk to those guys, but I got to feel like the weight is sort of lifted off their

shoulders of all that pressure. Like, whatever we do now is gravy. We're going to try to win this thing for DAC. We love DAC. Like the players are going to try to rally behind like DACs and win for him, but all the pressure, like if they don't live up to it, well, you lost your freaking franchise quarterback. What do you expect, right? So I actually don't think it's the worst thing in the world to be coming into a game like this and saying, first of all, you have extra time, right, because this is a Monday night game. So you have one extra day to prepare to be sitting here and saying, like, let's evaluate some things on offense. What were we doing the first five weeks that we might want to change a little bit or tweak a little bit? A lot of

teams don't take those self-scout opportunities as much as they should over the course of the season, like week to week to week, and make tweaks and adjustments to what they're doing. They're very focused on what the opponent is doing, and they're not changing enough with themselves. But this is an excellent opportunity to look themselves in the mirror and make some adjustments and adaptations to what they were doing to try to play to the strengths of Andy Dalton while at the same time trying to figure out how they can do things a little bit more efficiently. Andy, Dalton still has the opportunity to throw the ball to some tremendous wide receivers, some great talent here.

I think the Arizona Cardinals are a team that, you know, I like what Cliff Kingsbury was doing with this team and how he's adapting things. But this team is not that explosive. They're not that type of team that's going to build a big lead that's going to put Dallas in this massive hole. As long as Dallas doesn't shoot themselves in the foot, they're going to be in this game and they're going to be able to do everything they want to on offense. They're never going to have to be in a situation.

Oh, my God. We're down by 20 points here. How are we going to get out of this? Well, we're just going to have to pass, pass, pass with Andy Dalton. Like, that's not what the Arizona Cardo's offense is going to do here. Arizona's offense ranks below average in explosive passing. They rank below average in passing in general. So I think Dallas is going to have a good opportunity.

They're used to playing very explosive, powerful offenses we're talking. talking about like two of their last three games were against the Seahawks and Russell Wilson and the Browns who get some explosive gains if you can't get pressure. That game against the Giants, we mentioned this before, was not as close as it looks. That game, it looked very close. Dallas gave opportunities, and they've been doing this and then you stop doing this. And if they continue to do this, yes, it is going to be close. But that came against the Giants.

Dallas's offense was much better than the Giants' offense. Dallas's defense played a little bit better. And I just see an opportunity here to take Dallas when everybody is just scared to death. And what did Warren Buffett say? You know, the time to buy is when everybody else is scared and the time to sell is when everybody else is happy, greedy, and excited. And so you want to be in this situation where we're getting Dallas when people are scared of what Andy Dalton's going to bring to the table.

And yeah, this could be a game where Andy Dalton throws up on himself on a prime time. situation on Monday night football, right? You can live with those results. Like, for me, no single game is going to win or lose my season for me, right? I can afford to be, afford to take chances. I'm having a good season, doing well. I can afford to take chances on stuff like this and back a team who's got a backup quarterback in there where I think the odds maker over adjusted the line too much. Sharpey, I love that you drop some Warren Buffett on it. I mean, what you, I have to bring my flavor, though. I mean, this is the old hip-hop. Cretto, you know this.

Scared money, don't make money. There you go. And that's how we're going to play it. We are going to go. It's the same is true with the Niners, right? I'm not scared. I'm not scurred. We're going to play the Niners.

We're going to play Dallas. I have one more play for you. I don't care what your opinion is. I'm not asking. Adam Gase is still the head coach of the New York Jets. And now that Dan Quinn is out of the league, I lost an opportunity to bet against two coaches every single week, no matter what. But here's, I'm down to one.

it's Adam Gase. I bet against Adam Gase every single week as long as he is the head coach. I'll find a variety of ways to do it, teases, uh, money line, whatever. Miami minus nine is absolutely preposterous, but I don't care. Adam Gase is the coach of the New York Jets and I am going square with my square money. Well, how do you feel overall? I won't give you my opinion on that because you don't, you're not interested anyways, but how are you feeling overall with your card for this week, house? Are you, are you kind of feeling good? I mean, we talk you through a number of these games. I don't know that I've swayed your mind to change anything too much because I think you're on the right side of some of these things. But entering this week, are you going to be in a

very scared situation with some of these dogs and some of these quarterbacks that you don't really have a lot of confidence in? Or are you feeling pretty good? I'm going to be a little bit gentle. I'm going to do like, I like that under in the Minnesota Atlanta, the dead coach bounce under. I am going to play both San Francisco and Dallas, because scare money don't make money. So I'm going to get on both of those. And then, you know what, I'm not going to just sit here.

And obviously I'm taking my Adam Gase opportunity. That's just a rule. And then my home team at two and a half, that's a nice teaser opportunity. I can tease through the three. I can tease through the seven, two and a half with the six point teaser up to eight and a half. the New York Giants aren't eight and a half points better than my home team, are they?

I don't think that that's the worst teaser like in the world. I'll just put it that way. Okay. Well, that's week six. I mean, I don't know we could do any better. We gave out damn near 85 minutes worth of knowledge, dropping dimes and giving out some sharp points. Any finishing thoughts, brother Sharp? No, I think that there's not.

a lot of games on this card that I love, but there's a couple of specific opportunities. I don't think this is like a massive fire at a ton of things because there's a lot of great bets out there and a lot of great games that you're going to want to watch. But I think that there's in pockets. We're going to find some opportunities. The last parting shot is NFL, get your shit together. We want more 4 o'clock games. Stop screwing us with these 1 p.ms.

Give us a 4 o'clock games, NFL. Amen.