The Ringer NFL Show - Some Big Backs Are Against the Wall in Week 6 (Ep. 159)

Episode Date: October 13, 2017

The Ringer’s Robert Mays and Kevin Clark get you set for Week 6, with discussions on how the Chiefs might prove to be flawless (04:00), why the Patriots must win against the Jets (09:00), and the reason “Jaguars” and “Super Bowl champions” belong in the same sentence (18:00). Then, Danny Kelly joins the show to tell you whom to start and sit this week in fantasy football (28:00), and to explain why Beast Mode should be returning to glory against the Chargers (31:00). Finally, Robert and Kevin welcome The Ringer’s Joel Solomon to contemplate how the Giants may go 0-16 (39:15), and how vultures will be circling Big Ben and the Steelers if they lose on Sunday (46:30). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It's The Ringer NFL show. I'm Kevin Kark here with Robert Mays. Robert, have you heard about this new Showtime show, White Famous? I have, and it looks great. If you haven't heard about it, White Famous is a new Showtime comedy about trying to make it in Hollywood. Yeah, it stars Jay Farrow from Saturday Night Live as his comedian Floyd Mooney. Floyd is a comedian whose career starts to blow up, but he's not sure he's ready to. This reminds me a lot of you, Robert. Yeah, I've struggled with fame very much.

You're a comedy icon. Yeah, comedy icon. Yeah, it's the ups and downs of the industry. All of those things have crept into my life. He struggles with something every dream chaser wonders. Can he make it without losing his soul? White Famous is executively produced by Academy Award winner Jamie Fox and the creator of Californication, Tom Capinos. The show is based on Jamie Fox's real-life experiences and also stars Michael Repcourt, Jacob, Ming Trent, and more.

The two-episode series premiere is this Sunday, October 15th at 10 p.m. only on Showtime. So after you watch football all day, you can settle in for a double dose of White Famine. Download the Showtime app now to start your free trial. Or you can watch the hilarious new season premiere right now for free on YouTube. The show is legitimately funny. I hope you guys check it out. Welcome to the Ringer NFL show, part of the Ringer podcast network. I'm Kevin Clark.

I'm Kevin Clark. I'm joined as always by Robert Mays. Robert Week 6. We're here. Good Thursday night game yesterday? The Eagles might be good? I don't, it seems like we're going that way. I'm there.

We're there. I mean, they're 5 and 1. I had Chris Ryan on Slow News Day, and he said this was the test. He said if they win on Thursday, against a pretty good Panthers team, I buy in, and I tend to believe them. On The Ringer.com this week, I wrote about kind of the three-in-one teams we didn't expect to be, or one-loss teams that people didn't necessarily expect to be. And the Eagles, watching a few of their games in the last few weeks, I like them.

Wentz is playing well. I like the offensive line. It just seems like they've got some stuff going for them with Fletcher Coxback. The defense is kind of healthy and back to form. It just feels like they're going to be around until the end here. And now Zioch Elliott's suspension's upheld. I mean, the Giants are an absolute train wreck. It feels like why shouldn't this team win the NFC East?

The other day I wrote about the post-quarterback world in the NFL. And I had, you know, the example that is going to be the classic example this season is Blake Bordels, where the Jaguars are just throwing eight times a game in winning. I had a couple of Panthers fans reach out and say, actually, the post-quarterback world also applies to Carolina because they're set up to win even if Kim Newton is bad. That's so incredibly not true. I was thinking about it and I was like, did I screw up there?

Like maybe, right? No. He threw 52 times last night. That is an insane thing to say. And it's also not even just how many times he throws. Have you seen what Carolina's passing game looks like? Cam Newton is not throwing to Antonio Brown or Keenan Allen. These dudes aren't open.

He has to whip these balls into tiny little windows. Cam Newton has to be excellent for the Panthers to be good. The Panthers are not in the post-season. They're in the pre-quarterback era. Exactly. Yeah. No, when the quarterback was the only position on the offense. Exactly. All right. Week 6 is here. We're going to bring you up to speed on everything you need to know for the action. Danny Kelly will join us to talk fantasy football. Who should start? Who should you sit? Danny's got the answers in a bit. And the ringers, Joel Solomon is back for another edition of Am I Crazy? Joel is here in the studio. Robert is also in the studio.

I'm here. We did mention that. I'm sitting across from you. It's great. First off, let's get to our favorite four. These are our favorite four. matchups of the weekend, Robert started us out. I'm going with Steelers' Chiefs. I mean, obviously before the season, this on paper looked like it would be a good one, you know, Pittsburgh and Kansas City at both teams. Figure to push toward the playoffs. And now it's kind of a weird one.

It just feels like what the Steelers are doing right now and all the chatter around them. We'll get that a little bit later. But in Kansas City is the best team in the league. So looking at not a great Sunday slate, this is probably the marquee matchup, wouldn't you say? Yes. would say that. And I also wonder, if the Steelers lose, they're three and three, and it's a particularly gloomy three and three.

Yes. I mean, it's not, the Jets are probably going to be three and three and people are going to be saying, those plucky jets, three and three. They're already plucky. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, if the Jets were won and whatever, they'd be plucky. I mean, if the Steelers lose, we got problems. And it's not as if, well, the Steelers, if they falter

were in a bad way, they're playing the best team in football right now. Right. So, a couple of things. Number one, The NFL dug up the stat the other day, and I love it. Do you know this is the matchup of the two running backs to have the most yards per game in history? That's pretty great. I mean, Curiam Hunt's been to leave for five weeks, so.

Scoreboard. Scoreboard. Deshaude Watson would be the greatest quarterback of all time if we were going by that. He is. He might be, so that's true. Here we go. It's interesting to me. The Chiefs have holes in their rush defense.

PFF tweeted out the stat. fourth worst in the NFL at yards per attempt on first down. I mean, we saw last week that for some reason the steward's having aversion to running the ball, and I don't know what that is. Against Jacksonville. Against Jacksonville has the worst run defense in the league. And the best defense. It's not as if, well, they don't exactly stop the pass well either.

It couldn't be on a more opposite end. And so they just got to give the ball to levy on bail 30 times. Just do it and see what happens. That's exactly what they did against the chiefs last year. Yeah. I mean, that was their game plan on the playoffs. Why not go that way again? Another stat I saw about this game that I'm just fascinated by.

Also, you've got to keep this ball at Alex Smith's hands. It's another reason you got to run the ball ball. When the chiefs rush three guys, three guys, according to pro football focus, they're getting pressure 44% of the time. There are teams who don't get that with five guys. We talked about this before the season started, And it was kind of whatever dour viewpoint of our look you'd have for the Chiefs. Part of it was their defense when it was really good was good in part because Justin Houston was a monster.

And he's played so well this year. And that's fun because Justin Houston isn't young. He's not old, but it's not as if he's a 24-year-old guy. There's a chance when you have that knee injury for that long and it lingers that you don't get to back, you don't get back to being that guy again. And the fact that he's playing this well, it's a fun little sight. And also, Chris Jones is excellent. They've got a couple guys that can make it happen, but Houston's the guy that serves the drink now at front.

That wasn't necessarily the thought coming into the year. I totally agree. I mean, I just love that defense. I'm in love with that defense. I love this chief's team. If they win, is there any part of you that thinks, you know, last year we had the Vikings aberration. Obviously, the fact they had the worst offensive line,

maybe in NFL history, after the midseason sort of doomed them. Is there anything in your mind that could, that the chiefs have a situation? far as a fatal flaw that could sneak in in the second half of the season, or is this as this as good a team as it looks right now? It's kind of funny because if they had one,

it probably already would have crept in. Those offensive line injuries would sink most teams, and they've played pretty well. That's what I'm going to be looking at most in this game, though. Pittsburgh's pretty darn good up front. Hargrave 2-it-back.

Their pass rush has been pretty solid. So I feel like that's a match-ups the Steelers could win in this game, but I don't know if that's necessarily an indictment of who the Chiefs are in that area. Steelers have the 28th ranked rush defense, so I think they're probably going to go with Cream Hunt over and over and over again. Instead of Alex Smith's slinging it around. I don't know, man. You got the MVP at quarterback. You got to lean on them. We can't give the MVP to Alex. Why not? Just hand it to him. We can't do it. I'm not doing it. I'm not doing that. I don't care about awards at all. I don't get shit. I love awards. I don't get shit. I don't get shit at all.

I don't get a year. Did you just refer to yourself as big awards guy? Yeah. Okay. Why? Is that not accurate? Seems like you should just start calling me that. Okay, all right, we're here. We're going to a NFL show with Kevin Clark and big awards guy. I don't care, but I would be slightly offended if Alex Smith. I mean, like, yeah, he's just, there, we would have to, it would become like the Heisman trophy a little bit. But let's be clear, the most valuable player in the NFL every season is Aaron Rogers.

Or Lane Johnson. I don't know, the Eagles are just fine. Lane Johnson and Earl Thomas are the two most valuable players to mate, judging by what happens when they're not in running out. I'm not going to track her off his first name, but, you know, Vytai. Vitae is going to be all right. Right tackle for the Eagles? Even though Julius Pepper is just roasting him on the first track. Maybe it's Julius Peppers is the MVP every year.

I don't understand what Julius Pepper. I wrote about this this week. Julius Peppers and Jason Peters, it makes no sense. Like, they're replicants from Blade Runner. I tweeted this. They're not human beings to keep doing this every year. I don't understand it whatsoever. All right.

We're going to do Patriots at Jets. Yeah. I'm struggling with the question here. If the Patriots lose this game. If the Patriots lose this game. Well, I mean, it's a tough situation for the ringer.com because there's a lot of Jets fans here. No, I understand that. We'll never see Bill Simmons again.

I'll be happy for Sean. I'll be very happy for Rinal Handlet, even though I assume both of them want the Jets to lose every game. Matt James. Yeah, a lot of Jets fans here. Here's my question. If the Patriots lose this game, there'll be three and three. the Jets will be four and two, independent of what the bills do.

At every single part of that sentence. At what point, at what point would you be like the Jets are better than the Patriots? Because the Patriots have the worst. They would never happen. What if they had two more wins, three more wins? Like in mid-season. No, sorry.

What if the Jets won the Super Bowl? The Patriots would still be better. Yeah, that's what I was getting at. That's what I was getting at. We could be like at halftime of the Super Bowl, the Jets could be up 20 points, and we'd be like, wow, this Patriots team is much better than this Jets team.

So here's my question about the Jets. All right. And we can go a couple different directions here. First of all, how bad was Ryan Fitzpatrick last year? It's not as if the Jets have this entire influx of new coaching minds. The players on the team, like player by player, the 22 guys are worse, objectively. The quarterback is probably better. McCallin's playing, I don't know, fine.

I don't know how you describe it. He's playing fine. He's McCowning. And they've done the additions in the secondary and, kind of the changes in that area have helped. I mean, Adams has been a revelation. He's going to be a really good player. Marcus Mays been pretty good.

I mean, and Claiborne's been fine. So their competence in the secondary has helped. But this is still Todd Bowles. There's no Sheldon Richardson. I just don't understand how the Jets were such a nightmare last season. And they look so competent right now without any major changes aside from the guy playing quarterback. They're not doing anything well. No, they're not doing anything well.

They're just fine. Like it all. They're rushing the ball okay. That's that one game against Jackson. They're seventh and yards per attempt. But they're not, I mean, they're 25th in passing offense, 12th and passing defense. I mean, they're 30th in stopping the run. The Jets are not a good team.

It's just like they're so meh right now. And the fact that we're even having a conversation about them sticking in a game with the Patriots speaks to how the Patriots are right now. Yeah, that's what I'm getting at. I mean, I don't really, no one actually believes the Jets are good. but the Patriots basically have the worst defense on the planet right now. I think this is going to be a really good just measuring stick for the Patriots defense. It's a measuring stick for whether or not the world is going to end.

Well, that's also true, which we seem to be on the brink of that. But if the Patriots get run over by the Jets. I mean, if the Jets, not run over, that's strong. If the Jets show any signs of life on offense against his Patriots defense, I think it's time is circling really worried. The Patriots have a mini buy. They're coming off a 10 days rush. to play this Jets team.

Sure. So watch some film. Watch some film of the Jets. And can't stop. I love it. How was that? It was my favorite. It was great.

It was very, it was film. Yeah. It ran in place. Yeah. What stuck out to you? And this is real. Josh McCown is getting pretty good at just finding easy yardage. Okay.

So he's at least, he is a, like, a extremely league average quarterback that the Patriots contest. themselves against. Because the Patriots have had some interesting tests, right? They had Alex Smith in that unbelievable rushing attack, week one. Then you have Drew Breeze, rookie Deshaunette Watson, Cam Newton, and then James. A couple of those guys have extremely high ceilings. They got roasted by some of those guys.

Yeah, they sure did. But it's really, what I'm interested to see is just like a middle of the road, completely untalented quarterback who just makes easy throws. Like, can they stop that guy? That's the question If they can't, then things are really bad. And what do you do? I don't know.

What do you do? It just feels like this is the game. It's not a scheme thing at this point, man. It's an assignment discipline thing. It's ridiculous. I don't know what the hell is going on there. At this point, if they don't put up some sort of fight this week, this is when you start getting really worried.

The Patriots? Yes. Well, yeah. I mean, I'm not worried yet, but this is the week where it just like, there's no excuses. We have to get worried because the ringer is shutting down on Monday if this happens. That's a good point. Where would you work? I would go work for the New York Jets.

It's a good point. It's a good train to be on right now. Super Bowl parade. Parade planner for the New York Jets. All right, what else we got? It's your game, buddy. Packers and Vikings. It's a good one, man.

Love it. I mean, I think that we talked about this last week. It just feels like with the way the rest of the NFC is going and how flawed so many of these teams are that the team with Aaron Rogers is the scariest team. And I feel like against this Vikings defense, they really haven't played an excellent defense in a little while. I mean, they think that-

The Packers. Yes. Well, there aren't that many excellent defenses. So, I mean, if you think about the Packers' schedule, then they played Seattle, obviously, and then they lost that game to Atlanta and just some fluky plays in that game. The Bengals defense is better than people give it credit for,

and I think that the Packers struggled a little bit in that game. So I feel like I want to see what this offense looks like against a really good defense, because they're going to play teams like this down the stretch. So Rogers can carry them for the most part, especially against teams like the Cowboys, nobody needs to be carried against the Bears. But can he carry this offense against Minnesota?

I feel like he's a very good question. Yeah, I mean, Aaron Rogers is, again, like you said, sort of the default MVP of the league. And I'm not, I did a thing for the ringer.com today about, you know, the games where the teams have the most at stake. I think that the Patriots and the Jets are an incredible, an incredibly staky matchup. I would agree with that.

There's a lot of fall off from this. This I'm less concerned about because I think both of these teams the way they're built are going to be there at the end of the year competing for a playoff spot. Obviously, I think the Packers are significantly better than the Vikings,

but I think the Vikings are built to last. And so I'm intrigued to see this matchup. I think the Packers probably win by 10 points. Yeah, just because, I mean, especially when you consider how banged up the Vikings are and where the Vikings are banged up, the Packers get back, their offensive line this week for the first time in a while.

So Bakhtiari coming back, the week where they have to play against Everson Griffin is a huge deal. Does it impact your thinking at all that Case Canem is now the best quarterback in football? No, no. I felt bad for San Brad for last week. He shouldn't have been in the game. Did you watch Slow News Day this week with Chris Ryan's idea for a house reboot in which Mike Zimmer diagnoses the Vikings quarterbacks with a different ailment every week?

The only person on the planet is more of an asshole than Hugh Lurie in that role is Mike Zimmer. so it totally fits. And Chris Ryan is his assistant. Yeah, I love that. Yeah. That plays to me. With the rest of the stuff on television, I think that that could... There was a lot of Wyatt-Tittle material.

They got caught in Slow Newsday. How heavy is the editing on Slow Newsday? It's like Apocalypse Now. We just film for 46 hours. So I think that we're going to see how much Stefan Diggs means to this offense, I think, this week as well. I feel like even with Case Keenham, the greatest quarterback of all time, under center, their passing game is going to struggle against his character.

against the Packers. I feel like this game is not going to be indicative of where these two teams are at the end of the season just because of who's banged up for each one. And I think, but I do want to see Green Bay play well against Minnesota's defense. That's what I'll say. Yeah. I love this game.

I'm fired up. It's a fun one. These two teams at this point in their trajectory are fun. If you've looked at the schedule, you know that the primetime games are just absolute horseshit this week. It's unbelievable how bad they are. Folks, folks, folks, the networks gambled and lost. The Colts have been in prime time.

Twice. Okay, so the Giants are at the Broncos. Not a vintage matchup. Can we talk about the Giants for two seconds? Yeah. What's going out with this, Dominic Rogers, Carmody? He left the team three times. Three times.

Why do you come back? The second time. The genius Katie Baker quote tweeted him leaving three times and said same. Katie Baker is a very smart Giants fan. But she keeps coming back the same way. A very smart Giants fan. Is Katie also suspended? She's bouncing, yeah.

Yeah, she's done. So Ben McAdoo clarified. He's not even going to dignify thoughts he's lost the team. The only time that someone ever says that is when they've lost the team two weeks ago. I mean, he never had the team. It's like the Lionel Huss. I'm not even wearing a tie bit. Like, he doesn't even, I don't even know what the team is.

How could you say I've lost the team? I don't even know. There has to be a team for you don't have a team. No, I can't think of someone who's lost the team with more efficiency than Ben McAdoo. It's been swift. They made the playoffs last year. I picked them.

I thought, I mean, like last November, Bill was trying to say they might wouldn't make the Super Bowl. That's not fair, though. You can't talk to a Patriots fan about the Giants. Yeah. The way it relates to their playoffs. Yeah. Just performances overall.

Okay. Rams of Jaguars. That's the game. I love it. I love it. This is your favorite game of the week. You know it is. It's my favorite game of life.

Yeah. And my hot take, I kind of believe I'll get into this a little bit. But, I mean, first of all, here's what I'm intrigued by. There was a good, I linked to this in my, in my, my weekend preview today on the ringer.com. But there's some really good interesting nuggets about Todd Gurley and the holes he wants to run in and how it matches up with the holes that the Jaguars have. Right on the right side of the line and outside the tackles. That's where Gurley wants to go and that's where the Jaguar struggle. And so this is a really good

There's two really big tests I'm looking for Number one can golf Throw against the best secondary in the NFL The answer to that is no I think they're going to have a really hard time throwing the ball No one can Jalen Ramsey and AJ Boyer are the two Far and away

Best cornerbacks in the NFL right now Far and away Yeah who else would even be in the comfort I think they're the two best cornerbacks in the NFL I still think Denver's tree So even with Aaron Colvin playing well, probably is better than what the Jaguars have. Yeah. No, when you go three deep, I would go with it.

Just because being able to put Chris Harrison to the slot is such an advantage. It's kind of like how if you put Petty and Springsteen's best songs together, petty wins when you go 20 deep, but when you go 50 deep, Springsteen wins. That's fair. That's my petty Springsteen take. You're just waiting for a time to slip that in. The waiting is the hardest part. So, yeah, no, I'm intrigued by that

And then I'm intrigued by Gurley Going up against the absolute worst rushing defense in the NFL And whether or not the Jaguars have any answer I feel like this is a really bad matchup for the Rams Because they're... They should never throw the ball They should go full boardles But I know Todd Gurley is good at football

They have not run the ball efficiently This year, the 22nd rushing TVOA He's had games where he's salted it away that Dallas game late. He had some nice runs, but it's not as if they've been ripping off five yards of carry this year. They've stopped and started in the running game

often. So I feel like they might have trouble. And I just feel like that offensive line, they've been fine. Better than people probably thought before the season. Saffel has played solid. John Sullivan's actually been a very underrated edition. Everyone talked about Whitworth, which is fair. But I feel like they're outclass

by this Jags defensive line. So I just think that they're going to struggle. I don't know if they're going to be able to run the ball as efficiently as other teams have. And I just think that where the Rams are good and where the Jaguars are good, it does not stack up well for the Rams. This brings this to my hottest take

that I kind of believe. Let's get there. The following things had an 85% chance of not happening. There was a 15% chance Donald Trump was going in the election. I figured you started there at the time. There was a 15% chance

in the middle of the third quarter that the Atlanta Falcons were going to lose the Super Bowl. I think he was even more, less than a 15% chance. At one point it was 99% when the third quarter there was a very famous tweet that Hillary Clinton

and the Falcons had the same odds. The odds that the U.S. World Cup team was going to make the World Cup heading into the last round of games on Tuesday, according to Sports Illustrated, was the exact same as Hillary Clinton.

This is just a sign that the world is going to end, right? The Jacksonal Jaguars making the playoffs, in preseason, according to ESPN, had the exact same odds. Here's my other thought about this. Are people just making up odds? It just seems like there's no way if we're actually doing this mathematically that all of these are the same.

It's just like, you know what? This seems right. So we're just going to say this every time. It's like if something has a very small chance of happening, it only has a 15% chance. There's no way this is all like. I'm eating oatmeal. Please cut this. part.

Please, please, or keep it in. Who gives this shit? I had a 15% chance of finishing that sentence. No, I mean, there's certain, I think 15% is the perfect number. Because it's not insanely, it's not an insane long shot, but it's also not one and four. It's not two, 20 is too high because it's one in five. And one in 10 is not enough. So 15 is just like, people believe that.

Yeah, that seems unlikely, but it's not so unlikely that we can't be like, well, we had a 15% chance. So you think that the data world is just going full Enron here. Yeah, these numbers are fudge. The books are cooked. That everything that seems like it's going to happen just gets an 85% chance. The statistical community got together at some summit and they were like, guys, we want to spend more time with our families. 8515.

Everything is an 8515 split. That's my, okay. So I'm going with that. I think the Jaguars are going to make the playoffs. And I actually think they might win more games than you think. I saw an incredible statistic. The NFL pulled this up the other day. Three teams in the last 25 years have allowed a lower passer rating at this point in the season.

Both of them who are not the Jaguars won the Super Bowl. 2002 Buccaneers? 2000 Ravens? No. 85 bears. Not 25 years. Oh, sorry. We're getting old.

25 years. 2002 Raven. You're not going to get it. 2002 bucks. You're not going to get it. The Broncos two years ago? No. You don't think about it as a dominant defense.

Who is it? 96 Packers. Wow. Yeah. Interesting. They were better than... The 2002 bucks is still the best past defense I've ever seen. Oh, excuse me.

And I think their DVOA bears that out. Yeah. So those are the two teams that are lower than a 56 pass rating. The other team with a 56 pass rating was the O3 Patriots. Wow. Okay. 2002 bucks is the only one I would have guessed. Look at the...

Anyway, so the point is the Jaguars won in Super Bowl. That was a joke. They're not... But I do think... I think that at some point... If it looks and smells like a good team, it's a good team. So third past events is so good, and I think I'm right there with you on that. Also, schedule.

At Colts next week. Bengals, Chargers, Browns, Cardinals, Colts. It also helps just being in the AFC South and playing a bunch of horseshit teams. Yeah, that also helps. When I thought the Titans were going to go deeper in the playoffs, I forgot they had Mike Malarca. Mario is back. I mean, like, Mario not being playing last week is a big deal. I feel like this is a thing.

And that actually will get me to the thing we're not talking about this week. Okay, let's do it. Let's have this up. It's the Robert Mays. What are we missing? Nugget of the week. Those two quarterbacks coming back is a big deal. I mean, I feel like with the Titans, we've seen what the rest of their supporting cast can do.

You slot Marriota back in. They're healthy. I feel like it's going to be all right. I don't feel the same way about the Raiders. And I feel like that's going to be the conversation about Oakland this week. Is Derrick Carr is back, you know, da-da-da-da. Derrick-car hasn't been very good this year, first of all. Nope. But let's go beyond that.

The rest of the Raiders offense hasn't been very good. Good. Amari Cooper has been atrocious this season. And I feel like he's been banged up. He's not feeling well. I mean, physically, he doesn't look right, but that doesn't contribute to drops. It just seems like there's so many problems affecting this offense. And it goes beyond Derek Carr being healthy or not. And I think that what we saw against Denver, and we watched some of that game yesterday earlier this week when I was writing about the Broncos, they took it to the Raiders offense, the entire game. Physicality is really dictating everything about how they wanted this to go. And the Chargers defense isn't to the level of the Broncos, but they have players on that team. And I just want to see the rest of the Raiders offense do that to somebody else to take it to another team, another defense, the way the Broncos took it to them. Because Derek Carr is the most important player on this team.

We learned that last season. But he's not the only member of that offense. They need to be a dominant unit when you consider how bad they are on defense. I'm not looking for a better adjective. and that goes beyond Derek Carr and I would like to see that from the rest of this group but Cooper I mean Crabtree's been fine but this offense is allowed to be dominant

they shouldn't just be a solid unit they should crush games and they have not done that because they have so many A plus plus players at least two and that's not a common thing around the league I think people thought that the Raiders team was more dominant than they were last year

they won so many close games and not just close not like oh they won by four points Like games where they had the Donald Trump-esque 15% or Panama or Patriots. For the Raiders, it was 15%. That wasn't made up. I think there were sometimes, they had at least two games where it was like 99.8% they were going to lose. Yeah.

You really hate this data thing. I don't believe that. In my column today, I mentioned that people are starting to doubt probability. And I sort of compared them to Joe Booth saying I heard the jury still out on science. I don't believe it's just this stuff. I believe most numbers, but the probability stuff, I'm so skeptical. You're a probability truth.

That's right. Yeah. We're going to get Brian Burke on and just roast you. Yeah. So I agree with you. I mean, Derek Carr has to get better and they have to, I talked earlier in the season about how the next step for the Raiders is not getting in the situations.

Yes. You look like one of the best teams in the NFL because of the way you played in the fourth quarter and pulling wins out of your butt, basically. and the next step is not getting and being up 21 points at halftime. That's what good teams do. Yes. I mean, that's exactly right. And we thought, remember before the Washington game, we were having that conversation?

Like, they need to go in and beat up Washington. It's beyond them not being a really good team. They're not a good team right now. That's the problem. And it just feels like we didn't think we'd be here with the Raiders. Right. Now let's welcome in our Ringer Fantasy Football Genius, Danny Kelly. Danny, everyone puts out these stardom, sitem columns each week, and they're not as good as yours.

I agree completely. That's all true. That's it. There was a different thing here on the read, but I know what we meant by that. Might as well just not beat around it. Yeah. Let's just get straight to it. I'm into your improvising.

So, D.K., give us some start and sit decisions that people might actually be struggling with for week six. Let's start with the quarterback. All right. So my start this week is Matt Ryan, and that might see. seem obvious since he's the reigning MVP, but I get the feeling a lot of people have kind of given up on him a little bit. I mean, we've seen a lot of regression in terms of, you know, just his prolific numbers. But I like the match of this week. I like that. They're coming off a buy. The dolphins right now are really good against the run and really, really bad against

the past. So I can see this game kind of going past heavy. And I think with Julio back, you know, healthy-ish, I think it could be a good game for him. And so, you know, if you've given up on Matt Ryan, I think it's time to give him one last try this week. Matthew Stafford and Matt Ryan. Matthew Stafford against the Saints. That's rough. I'm still going with Matt Ryan on that one. Wow.

Okay. I actually have that decision to make. So thank you, Danny. Stafford has been good, but I mean, he's been like efficient. Is that what the show is for? I mean, these are real questions. People are, why? He's giving me advice.

I am standing for the listener. Yeah, that's my advice. I'm going with Matt Ryan on that one. Danny, what quarterback are you sitting? I'm going with Ben. Maybe I don't have it. any more Rafflesberger. I think Ben is sitting.

Ben is just going to sit in real life. He's bet you himself. And I mean, again, it's like, this is kind of obvious coming off of a five, you know, or whatever, how many interceptions he had last week. But he's so tempting for a lot of people just because he's got Brown, Bell, and Bryant out there. And I think every week it's like, man, he could really go off just because of his weapons.

But if you look at some of his road numbers over the last year and a half, like going back to the beginning of last year, he's played 11 games on the road, 59% completion rate, 13 TDs to tenants, interceptions, 80 rating, and 6.75 yards per attempt. I mean, he's terrible on the road in last like year and a half. Now, one caveat, his one good road game came against Kansas City last year. He had five touchdowns in that game. But I'm not banking on that happening again. I think the chiefs will be ready for him this year.

And so, yeah, I'm sitting, Ben, even if it's super tempting to start him just because of all of his weapons. I have some data, Danny, and that's that you should always sit a quarterback. after he says maybe I don't have it anymore. Also, we talked about this earlier in the show, Danny. It just seems like against that Chief's defense, we're going to see a similar recipe to the one they used last year in the playoffs, which is bell 30 times and just take the ball out of the Rothsberger's hands. Quarterback was football in Pittsburgh, too, Kevin.

We didn't really consider that. The problem is it's not a strategy. It's just happening. It's just happening. All right, Dan, let's get to the running backs. All right, so we've talked about this guy a couple of weeks ago. Marshawn Lynch Raiders against the Chargers this week. he's off to a pretty slow start.

He's kind of looking like a shell of his former self, but something interesting happened this week. I don't know if it means anything, but I'm kind of banking on it, meaning something. So per rap sheet, he met with Mike Tice, offensive line coach of the Raiders, tried to get on the same page with him.

Tice gave him some homework. It really reminds me of something that happened in Seattle when he was first here in Seattle when he basically met with Tom Cable, and Cable was like, you need to do what I want from point A to point B, and then you can do whatever you want from point B to point B to point B.

see it and from there it kind of just like clicked and he turned into a completely different runner so I'm banking on that having an effect I think he even in that rap sheet report he said that Lynch is a little bit embarrassed by his play so far so we could be talking about an angry beast mode this week

add that in with the fact that the chargers are the worst run defense in the NFL so far they've given up 161 yards a game 5.0 yards per carry which is 30th you know I don't know how hard they're going to be leaning on on car when he comes back in this first game and so I think it could be a good situation for him to kind of go off.

Plus, he's gotten all five of the teams carries inside the five-yard line so far. So he's still their goal line back. He's still got that touchdown upside potential. So, yeah, I'm going with Lynch. Amazing how much the charges have missed Denzel Paraman. I mean, I knew they would, but it just didn't seem like they would fall off

this much against the run. They've really, they're just like a Denzel-Perman-shaped hole in the middle of their defense. Yeah, and I think it's, you know, might have something to do with, like, new coaching, new scheme and all that, But yeah, it's crazy how good their offensive line is, but yet they've been just leaky versus around.

It's strange. Is it also because they're playing an MLS stadium? That may be it. I'm going to an MLS stadium this weekend for a non-socer and non-football game. What do you do? What else do they do there? I'm just going to stand in the middle of the field. It's a boxing match there.

Oh, okay. I see a boxing match there. Really? The game is like potentially getting moved because of all the smoke, though, right? so I don't think we know where it's being played this week. Oh yeah, no, but they might move to leave eyes. Yeah.

Anyhow. That'd be exciting. Who's sitting? Here's my sit. You guys, Mades, you might be a little bit disappointed about this one, but Tariq Cohen versus the Ravens.

I think, number one, the Ravens are really, really good at home defensively. I think I saw this stat from, from Roto World. Since the beginning of last year, they've got up just 14,

or 15.4 points per game at home. Add in, you know, you got a rookie quarterback starting in Trubisky this week. And for some reason, I don't know why John Fox has really cut back on Cohen's use over the last couple of weeks. His snap share has gone down to, in week two it was 63%. Now it's down to 28% last week.

And so they've really, really cut back on him. Benny Cunningham is kind of cutting into that. And so, yeah, he's, to me, until they kind of figure out like a good use in terms of how much they're

going to use them in the running game, how much they're going to use them in the peasant game, I would stay away from him. Seems like the bears are really trying to simplify the offense. And when you're using so many rollouts and so many define one-reed plays, you're not going to get to the running back as many times. So even when they do use him, I don't feel like Tribisky's going to lean on him the way that another quarterback would.

His target chair has dropped me at 12, 9, then 4-4-1. He's not a part of the offense like he was early in the season. Against the Ravens, I'd have no problem with that whatsoever. Absolutely. Should we move over? Yeah, let's get the water-serie position. All right. So my start this week.

week is Will Fuller. And I mean, clearly he's had a really, really, really fast start this year again. Happened last year. And I think a lot of people are kind of nervous about, you know, he can't keep this production up. Like, he fell off really hard last year as well after a really fast start. But this is a great defensive match. Or this is a great defensive match.

They're facing the Browns. I think they're 31st and past defense DVOA. I just got done watching all of Deshawn Watson's tape the last couple of days. And I'm so impressed with him. And so I just love the fact that, number one, defenses tend to tilt towards Hopkins. And, I mean, it's obvious why. But Watson's done a really good job of kind of using Fuller when that happens, getting him latched up one-on-one.

He's great deep. He's obviously got tons of speed. And Fuller's also really good on kind of like, you know, screenplays, end-round, things like that, because he's so, so fast. So I like his touchdown upside again. I mean, I think, you know, I'm not going to keep saying that he's going to have, like, two touchdowns every game for the rest of the year. But I think this is a good week for him.

I think you got to stick with them another week at least and then kind of see how it plays out. He also, the way they use Fuller and then with Watson's ability kind of extend plays, it makes filler really dangerous on crossing routes. Just because those things can develop just in a way that they wouldn't be able to

without Watson bouncing around back there. I'm just worried about the targets, Danny. It just doesn't seem like he's getting enough of them to be consistently dominant. And Watson is going to throw the ball to the Andre 15 times a game. I agree with that, and that's why I think people are kind of nervous about him, but against this defense this week, I still got, I think that touchdown upside is there. Who's sitting? Yeah, you guys talked about him.

Mari Cooper. Yeah. I think he's a tempting guy like, oh, he's going to bounce back this week. You know, he's going to get the targets, blah, blah, blah. I'm waiting until he does, man, because he's just looked really bad. He has, you know, he's been held under 10 yards receiving for three straight games. I mean, if you're tempted to start him this week, I'd hold off. Just until he proves that he's, you know, figured out what's going on.

Yeah, I wouldn't blame you whatsoever Totally agree Okay, Danny It's the moment we've all been waiting for Since it was unleashed under the world last week Everybody's been talking about it. Mays, how many people have stopped you on the street And said, what's up with DK's Dark Night?

It's incredible. I hear about it all the time. I just want to eat a meal. Yeah, just leave me alone. Just sitting there And at a coffee shop, people coming Who's DK's Dark Night of the week? Dany.

Sleep in the nation, you guys. Danny, hit us. DK.'s dark night. It's a sleep night. a fantasy start. I'm going with former Washington Husky, Austin's Farian Jenkins with the Jets. Wow! A Jets!

That is the only, the first and only time I think we would mention a Jets player on this podcast in the fantasy capacity. I mean, he's looked good last couple of weeks. He's tied or led the team in targets two of the last three weeks. He's a big guy. He's up against the Patriots defense this week.

You know, they could be coming from behind. It's kind of just one of those good matchups where I think, you know, He's going to be targeted in the red zone. The Patriots have had a tough time matching up against tight ends. And he's kind of turning into like one of their top targets. So all those things combined, I think he's kind of one of those sneaky guys this week.

If you were just shown the line in June, the line being Austin Safarian Jenkins is a good matchup because he's going against the Patriots defense. How would you react? This is how, this is why making predictions in the preseason is just freaking, impossible. I mean, like, the NFL is so weird every freaking year. I don't know what to tell you. Danny. Danny. It's a weird wild world, man. Thanks, buddy. All right. Thanks, guys.

Coming up, Joel Solomon is back with another edition of Am I Crazy. Plus, we'll let you know what we think next week's headlines will be, but first, let's take a quick break. Robert, have you started betting against the Giants every week yet? No, I have not, but that doesn't mean that you shouldn't be betting against the Giants every week. And if If you do, you should be betting on my bookie.orgie. It's true. They're reliable, and you get paid super fast. We always tell people, bet Sunday, get paid Tuesday. Your team doesn't even have to win.

They just need to cover, which is great for me as a Bears fan, just keep these games close. That's the thing. You can just emotionally hedge all of the time. Are you suggesting the Bears are going to keep the games close? Maybe. Yeah. You have to check out MyBooky. They have an awesome mobile site.

And Robert, you know they have that live in-game betting. Yes, they do. And for you two degenerates out there, that's exactly the type of stuff you need. You can also play blackjack and craps in their online casino. Join now and MyBooky will match your deposit with up to a 100% bonus. Use promo code Ringer NFL to activate your offer. Visit mybooky.ag today. You play, you win, you get paid.

Okay, we got Joel Solomon here, comedy writer extraordinaire. Sort of. Joel, thanks for coming. It's nice to meet you. This is good. It's the first time for us. All right. It's the latest installment of Am I Crazy?

It's a segment that is exactly what it sounds like. You're just going to say, are you crazy for something? Yeah, I'm going to do my best. We'll see. What do you got? Some crazier than others. What do you got? Last week we had the, we had the witch actor is Carson Palmer.

Yeah. And we got a couple tweets suggesting Dennis Quaid. That's actually not bad. All right. Well, we can. Dennis Quaid was also the once washed up quarterback in a football movie. That's true. Yeah, that's true.

All right. Well, let's start with New York. New York, we always have to have a crap team to talk. about. It's the Giants turn. New Yorkers always need something to complain about. But just how bad are the Giants going to be? I'm going to give you their schedule. Do they go

0-16? Or am I crazy? Let's look at the schedule. I think they have too much. My initial thought, before even looking at any of the games they play, is that there are too many good players in the defense for that to happen. So, I talked about this from Lombardi a couple weeks ago on one of our videos. And the

way, what we both decided on is in order to go 1116, you need a tinge of hopelessness. Like the worst teams Okay, check. People thought that people thought that like the lions might be okay that year

they went out 116. Like you need a desperation. If you're just a bad team like the Browns were last year like those guys get scrappy and win a game. You need a team to completely quit. But that seems to be where we're going. That's what I'm talking about.

I mean, it's cratering so bad. Seahawks, Rams. They could beat the Niners. The Niners is the one that I'm looking at right now. On the road though. Outside of that, at Cardinals Christmas Eve. It's a pretty brutal stretch.

At Cardinals, Christmas Eve is a good one to circle. Yes. That one, I mean, Washington's playing really well at the Raiders. I feel like the Raiders we have righted it to a certain degree about that. It depends how head coach Steve Spagnolo adjusts to the Cardinals. So you're removing the interim tag. They're just going to give him the job in like week 16. You know, that's how the Giants operate now is they just promote unqualified people.

They're going to give him a six-year contract. I think it's really hard to go 0 and 16. We're looking at 1 in 15 potentially. I think they win. I think they go 2 and 14. Wow. I think they win more than that. But maybe it is as bad as it seems.

I hate them because I picked them to be good. You just want it to go as bad as it possibly can. Right. I don't think you're crazy, but I do think they win a couple games. All right. Speaking of teams that were supposed to be good, the Arizona Cardinals, this is a very, an old team even getting older now with Adrian Peterson. this would have been an incredible fantasy football team in 2010.

Right. I mean, they're filled with best players to never win a Super Bowl that still won't win a Super Bowl. Correct. It's pretty much a Fox NFL Sunday crew in five years, this team. Five! Five! I say two! All right, so, I mean, it is hilarious that Larry Fitzgerald has now played with Emmett Smith and Adrian Peterson on that same team.

It's unbelievable. And never in a productive way. No. So, Tom Brady is 40. Fitzgerald's 34, Palmer is 37, Adrian Peterson is 32. Tom Brady's 40. Am I crazy? Or is he still going to outplay all three of these guys?

Yeah, definitely. The only person with any chance would be, there could be like a fits rejuvenation that I could see. On New England. On New England, right. No, it's going to be Brady. Peterson's out of the equation, as is Palmer. Absolutely.

I also don't think Larry Fitzgerald is the guy to hang around. Larry Fitzgerald's going to walk away from football. I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if this was it. Larry Fitzgerald is not the, I'm going to run this into the ground person. Does he make it to the Giants game? Tom Brady is. Does he make it to the Giants game? I do think he makes it there.

I'll tell you what. That's his second to last game. The way to doom a Giants win this season is if Fitz says he's hanging it up like two days before that game. And then they have to win it for Fitz. This is you, I love that you're making this. Steve's back. If Tom Cough would just like called Larry Fitzgerald, I was like, you need to tell people that you're retired.

So Fitz has had one really good game this year, 149 yards. He has two touchdowns on the season. He won them a game against San Francisco. What a battle. What a battle. I'll remember where I was. Two teams named as maybe Giants wins. It's the worst thing you can say about NFL franchise in 2017.

So I think we agree. Brady's the guy. All right. What else you got? Okay, Monday night, huge. AFC South showdown. Aren't they always huge? They are.

I circle them every single week. We're calling this the Matt Hasselback backup classic. Could have been Luck Marriota. Instead, we're getting Jacoby Berset versus Matt Castle. But Mariotta should be back. It could be back. Maybe. We don't know about that.

We don't know. It's still questionable. So right now it's not. But shockingly, it's still a big game because at 2 and 3, as of today, they're only one game behind the Jaguars. And if they can keep pace, as we've seen, one of these teams can be poised to make a late season run at the playoffs. So am I crazy, or does Chuck Bagano look like Gene Hackman?

Because we're not talking about this game. He absolutely does. Does he? I think he does. Oh, my God. He absolutely does. This has a long time ago, though. Right now.

I'm just furiously Googling. if you find someone better Yeah, you got the hairline The thing is though Gene had the mustache a little bit later Is the problem Like French connection area Gene Hackman Didn't have the mustache

It's harder to pin it Yeah Well when Gene Hackman aged in a weird way He really did I'm looking at some young man To very old very quickly Not that they're going to make the Czech Bagano movie But if they do

We have Eugene Hackman pegged I don't know about that You think Hackman would take that role? Gene Hacchman's also like 90 years old right now I'm not I'm actually selling the Chuck Pagano looks like Jean Hackman No I can absolutely see it I'm selling it's a hairline

The hairline's a huge part of it The hairline is a whole thing But I mean that's anyone can have that hairline I would like to see Gene Hackman in the 80s with a mustache Or I guess a goate If there's a joke if there's a draft day too Except with the Indianapolis Colts organization Hackman, he's on the clock.

I want to bring this up again. Gene Hegman is 87 years old. Draft 8-2 starring Chuck Pagano and Gene Hackman is just them not. It's just the Colts non-drafting any help for Andrew Luck for two hours. Who plays Ryan Grigsend? Dennis Quaid, right?

Who plays everybody? All right. Well, what an amazing way to go out. Robert, we have to very quickly get to our next week's biggest headlines. What do you got? I think the Steelers hysteria hits a crescendo if they lose this game. Yeah.

I mean, it becomes full panic mode and I understand why. It just feels like this was supposed to be a team that was in until the end. And the idea that they're significantly worse, and not significantly worse, but that they're not favored to beat the Chiefs. I don't understand the Chiefs is the best team in the league, but it still is just shocking to me to see the Pittsburgh Steelers at this point in the season. Their defense is good.

The offense should be so much better. It just feels like if they go down this week, if Baltimore likely wins against the Bears, that division suddenly starts coming into flux. I just feel like this is the week where it's really bad. In my opinion, I totally agree with you. And if I had to, if I could copy yours, I would because the vultures will be circling around Ben Rollins. Absolutely.

In a way that I don't think. I mean, that season can get really grim really quickly. I saw a dead seal on the beach yesterday. So seagulls were picking at it. I feel like that's what we're going to be looking at next week. I think that is the number one story of the week. I think that the number two story of the week is going to be. Whoever the hell wins that Rams Jaguar's game.

I totally agree with you. I was going to pick like the Jags are here. Everyone's going to hype up the winner of that game. And I will be in front of the, I will be driving the pace car for that. I'm going to irrational, irrational hype on Tuesday morning. Monday, all day.

I'm driving it. I'm in. I can't believe that we're here. I mean, I guess I should be surprised. It was always going to be super weird. What a dumb world? we live in. And on that note, that's it for today. We'll be back Tuesday, recapping the Jacksonville

Jaguars or Los Angeles Rams and their march towards history and the rest of week six. As always, thanks for listening to the Runger NFL show with Kevin Clark and Big Awards guy on the Ringer podcast network. Thanks, guys.