The Ringer NFL Show - Super Bowl Predictions and Coaching Updates

Episode Date: February 8, 2022

Kevin, Danny, and Ben discuss, dissect, and share their picks for Super Bowl LVI from Radio Row. They wrap up the pod by reacting to some of the recent coaching updates around the NFL. (34:46) Hosts: Kevin Clark, Danny Kelly and Ben Solak Producer: Arjuna Ramgopal Production Assistance: Chris Sutton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Let's help everybody. I'm JJ John Gistramski. And I'm Jason Gough, and if you haven't heard, the ringer has gone local. I'm bringing the fire. I'm bringing the rain from the big apple with my show, New York, New York. And I'm reping Shottown with my new show The Full Go on All Things Chicago. We've got episodes three nights a week with all the reaction to the local teams and guests. Plus bonus episodes around all the big games and storylines.

So whether you're uptown, downtown, downtown, in the burbs, or a transplant. Make sure you follow New York, New York, and the full go on Spotify or wherever you get your podcast. It is the Renan NFL show, part of the Ringar Podcast Network. I'm Kevin Clark, joined today by Ben Solack, Danny Kelly, Nora Principiades in route to Los Angeles. We were at Radio Row. Stephen Ruiz is not here. He's protesting Justin Herbert, not being in the game.

We've got a great show. It's going to be predictions, not just the game score, although we'll get to that, but also just what's going to happen in this game. How does this play out? What are the different scenarios? Let's get to it. I just want to get this out on the record, Ben Solac. You said Danny Kelly's photo was adorable.

You didn't say anything about mine. You've already broken. down this photo you were in England yeah no I know I mean I just got there was some feedback some feedback that Danny's was adorable Danny's has a kid so why don't you you know grab one of them I have a scarf buddy got the advantage that's a nice scarf it's a good looking scarf it's a nice scarf I wish we were back with the Super Bowl Minneapolis I could show off my scarves I got some good scarves I don't wish we were in Minneapolis oddly enough we're in LA maybe with being in Los Angeles we're on

radio row there's some some some radio folks who were pretty loud in our vicinity din the background din Some background din, but we're going to predict the Super Bowl, not just game score, but what's going to happen this week, what's going to happen in the game, outside of scores, a lot to get to. Danny Kelly, I want to start with you. Yo. Who's going to win this game?

So I'm going with the Rams. I don't actually want to go with the Rams because I do have some latent like Seahawks fandom in there and I don't want to vote for the M.C. West. So I kind of want the Bengals to win because they're a fun story. I just think that the Rams are the better team. And I'm a Stafford believer. I think he's going to have a good game, so that's what I'm going with. Stafford matches up how against his defense?

Well, I think obviously the big question is, you know, what are the Bengals going to do to try and get Stafford to turn the ball over? Because obviously he's had these bouts in the past with just really bizarre, what are you doing type turnovers? So like you guys broke it down on the gambling show, like, are they going to blitz? He's very good against the blitz. They probably don't want to do that. So are they going to coax them into making a bad decision?

I think that is going to be sort of like the matchup to watch. What are they doing when they're rushing three or rushing four? Is he going to be able to dump it off and kind of like take what they're giving him? Or is he going to try and push it down the field and make a mistake? We'll see. But I think that's going to be, you know, like the question of the game in terms of the Rams offense. And so I don't know. I think he's just going to be, I think he's going to make good decisions.

I think he's going to play well. He's got Cooper Cup, O'De, Beckham. I don't know, feeling good about it. Ben, how does the Bengals defense? How does Big Lou scheme up mistakes? Is that what we're calling him? I'm very fine with Big Lou. I think that's good.

It's because Ruiz was unsure on Anorumo. And so I just said, that's fair. There's more vowels than you expect. There's a whole four syllables in the Arampton. Can I say something? I want to call anybody out, but I was listening to the Chris Collinsworth podcast the other day.

Wow. Direct call out. No, no, no. It's an amazing podcast. I love Chris. He sped up when he said Lou Aneruneroy. A pro move. And I really think that there's just a large scale.

I'm not totally sure how to pronounce this last name. Whether that's me, Collinsworth Ruiz, like we're speeding up when we say it. You look at it and you go, that's a lot. And you just know that there's too many to like riddle out live as you go. Just the last name I've never seen before. Okay? Yeah, right. Okay.

So how does Big Lou Aneromo scheme up Stafford mistakes? Right. So Danny alluded to it. We talked about it on the gambling show a little bit. You don't want to blitz them, right? But Stafford this year has looked really poor against three-man rushes, drop eight coverage, right? And this is what the Bengals did a ton of against the Chiefs and against Mahomes.

On 45% of Mahomes drop-backs in the second half, they dropped eight. It was one of the highest incidences of drop eight. They ran all-season. The Chiefs have seen all season. And what it was essentially saying was, listen, we probably can't beat you. So we're going to make you run as many plays as possible, throw the ball as short as possible, have to be mistake-freeing your execution, And hopefully, and this is what they got from Mahomes in the second half,

get a little bit uncomfortable, get a little bit impatient, and make that mistake. And if we've seen Mahomes do that, he's been very mature this year, we've definitely seen Stafford do it, right? Stafford has those two or three throws a game where he's like, aha, triple coverage. It would be a shame if someone threw directly into this, right? And that's what you're trying to elicit when you run this drop-bait stuff. I will say that that stat and that framework has been floating around a lot over the last week,

and I looked at it, and there's 43 total Stafford dropbacks, against drop eight. So there's a chance we're just really jumping at some really, really juked numbers because of how small the sample is. But in general, you're not going to blitz him. You're going to do what you did against Malm's, which is rush four, drop seven, rush three, drop eight, make this Rams offense be laborious, make them be precise, and hopefully slow the game down enough. You can keep it close, and then Burrow can work as magic on the other side. Who's your winning this game? I think the Rams win it. And I was talking with this about this with Danny earlier. I think the Rams win it for the same reason that I've thought the Bengals

would lose every single playoff game they've played. I picked the Raiders to the Titans and the Chiefs. And every single time, it was like, well... Now I don't feel great about my Rams pick. Well, that's the thing, right? It's every single time, like, well, there's no way they can get away with this again. There's no way they can get away with... They can't keep getting away with it.

Exactly. These deep outside targets, this average running game, this horrible right side of their line, this lackable and elite cover guy. And then every single week, they get away with it. And I don't know if I'm just massively underrating the effects of Evan McPherson or what, but like, this Bengals... team it has felt untenable for a bit and uh you know i've i've rode this horse the whole way here it's practically dead i'm going to ride it one more time this is actually how i thinkles can't get it done i've

been on the stafford train all year and i'm like i can't get off now they just made it to the super bowl so i just want to chart the journey kevin's pulling some strong bangles process on me we're about we're about to get to the ultimate solac slash ruiz take i'm just going to i'm just put it in ruiz's mouth because he would say he was here not only to win that not matter. Super Bowls don't matter as well. Super Bowl is not a team stat. Am I impressed by what you do? Yes or no? If so, you're a good team. If you're a bad team. That's why in the middle of the year I was like, yo, the Detroit Lions are kind of fun because they were just like generally better than I expected. So they're right, lines must be good now. Frisky. All things are

relative to my expectations. You can't describe a team in the Super Bowl as an untenable situation. I'm rejecting that. It feels like a house of cards. I'll put it see you this way. I see one of two games playing out. I see a very low-scoring game that the Bengals are able to stay in and they're able to play their way and then it kind of comes down to that Joe Burrow last possession, which their last couple of games

have come down to. Or I see Rams taking them to the woodshed for four quarters. And that's just that's the first half of the... Yeah, and that's just the impression I have for the Bengals team. I struggle to see this offense generating a ton of points against the Rams and I see this defense with weaknesses the Rams can exploit. But again, I can't emphasize this enough.

I've seen this in previous matchups and I've been wrong every single time. So the Bengals clearly have something that I'm not able to put my thumb on. So I'm going to pick the Bengals. I'm picking them 27, 20, something like that, take the under, but just slightly. I get it.

I sent this on the Round of Soul podcast this morning, and I went on deep on some Joe Burrow stories, and I'm not going to do all that here. What I will say is that I feel like I'm going to regret not picking Joe Burrow if I didn't pick them, because that makes sense. I just feel like sometimes things are happening. I don't like you.

I don't totally understand it. Right. But I kind of feel like we can, every Super Bowl winner tends to make sense in hindsight, right? Like, okay, this roster was stacked. They had a bunch of guys on good contracts, whatever. And I kind of feel like we're going to look back in five years, in five years, and this will be the Joe Burrow run. And there's a reason this is all happening.

I think that some of the weaknesses of the Bengals have helped them in a weird way. What I mean by that is everyone knows the offensive line is quite bad. And they adjusted to that by getting the ball quicker two weeks ago against the Chiefs. They, I think his average depth of target was something like 4.5th Borough. One of the shortest games to play. Two weeks, yeah. They understand what they can't do at this point. Everybody understands that.

Brian Callahan, the OC, Joe Burrow, Zach Taylor. They're not going to play the deep ball with Jamar Chase. That will not be happening. But he can process. Burrow can process. He can throw into tight windows. He can do things where you can exploit the middle of the football. field Seth Gween had that great piece the other day about how basically the Rams linebackers

might struggle with all of this happening. I think that's probably some validity to that. I understand how dominant the Rams front seven can be. But I also understand that Burrow can process, get the ball out quickly and neutralize some of that. There are enough targets, those guys out in routes. I can see the way this is sort of trending and I'm going Burrow. Danny Kelly, push back on it. So I think it's going to be really close game. My prediction is 2119 Rams. I do think, and this is a cliche, I realize that, but this is going to be one of those games

where, like, three or four plays really sort of change the complexion of the game. But don't you want Burrow in that spot? Yeah, and that's why I'm, I'm like torn. Don't you want Burrough scampering on third and seven? The thing is, like, we love that Burrow scamper on third and seven. That was one of his first and most effective scampers of the year. Generally, he has not been a scamperer. Scamper.

Did you watch him in college? He scampered. Yeah, but in the league, which is decisively different than college. there's been fewer scampers. He scampers when he needs to. Situational scampering. Scampur. He's situational scampering.

That is so powerful. We're setting a land speed record for scampers for podcast. But no, I think, yeah, like I agree in those high leverage situations, like you want to trust that Burrow is going to come through in the clutch. Also, they have Evan McPherson, who has been insanely just clutch. 12, I believe, in the playoffs? Yeah. Does it just not say anything about the team of the Bengals that we've legitimately mentioned their kicker as part of the analysis? this twice. Like, that's the sort of team we're talking about. He's a

difference maker. Yeah. He's a legit difference maker. Flawless for 50. I also think the fact that the Rams have such a good defensive line will help them in this regard. We'll have the bangles in this regard. They wasted early downs against the Chiefs. Just wasted. Yeah, like just early down runs. Just early down runs. It didn't even work. Didn't have a chance of working. It was almost like the body blow thing, which is what Zach Taylor and Brian Callahan, those guys did the

early run thing at the beginning of the season, got more aggressive as the season as the season went along and then totally that plummeted against against the chiefs. They went right back to early season, Zach Taylor. And I think that they know there's not even a chance that this would work against the Rams defensive line. And I think that they're going to be more aggressive. They're going to pass more, I hope, than they did against the chiefs. And you won't see the same level of having to come back because Burroughs going to be able to establish an elite. I very much agree that the obvious weakness is so exploitable and so clear that the Bengals have a really good plan for it. I just also think the Rams, the Bengals have a second weakness and a third weakness,

and I think the Rams are well suited for that, right? Like typically, when the Bengals have been able to get past protection, they've been able to punish teams with high chase targets, especially down the field. The Rams have Jalen Ramsey. If there is a corner in the league who can cover a Marchase 101, it is Jalen Ramsey. You talk about those early down runs and that tendency to be an early down run team. The Rams are not a good run defending team. So you're going to want to get into your early down runs. You're going to want to do it that way. You're going to think that that's exploitable. And then you're probably going to end up taking the ball out of Burroughs hands more than you should and relying too much on a running game that doesn't really work. Like I think that while like

the evident mismatch is the right side of the line versus Donald and Vaugh. I think there are other less evident but still meaningful matchups that also skew the Rams way. So even if we do get quick game distribution point guard Burrow, still think the Rams are in this thing. Still think it takes two staffer throws to get a two-score lead, and all of a sudden, you know, ball games out of whack. Who's stopping the scamper? Troy Reader, baby. Ever heard of them? Undrafted free agent from Montana State.

He's scrambling. The thing that I was thinking about during that game, the AFC Championship, it was, like, early down running was, like, catastrophe mitigation. It's basically, they don't care. I mean, they obviously care, but, you know, they recognize they're getting zero yards. one yard, negative one, like it's like they keep doing it, they keep going to it because a sack on first down in that situation is actually worse than taking just like a one yard gain or whatever. Even though you're setting up your team for a long second and long third down, at least you're not in second and 18 after a sack. So I think that was part of the reason that they kept sticking with it. It was basically just like they understand that their offensive line is massively overmatched in this in this game.

We just don't want to put ourselves in too bad of a situation. and I think that we could see the same thing happen in the Super Bowl with the Rams. But, you know, it's just one of those things where can this work twice in a row or in like, you know, as Ben was saying, like three or four times in a row. I just don't know. So that's where I'm worried about for the Bengals. I'm worried about Matt Stafford's consistency as well. Yeah, I mean, that's the funny thing. It's like another one of my big things coming into the playoffs was doubting the Rams because I didn't think Stafford could string together the three games that he has sent strong together.

Both these teams are going to play awful games on Sunday. It's going to be six to three. Yeah, exactly. I honestly think it's going to be low scoring. I do think it's going to be ugly early. We have to remember there are a lot of players who have never played in a Super Bowl currently playing in this Super Bowl, right? Like the Bengals have nobody offensively that's playing in a Super Bowl before.

Obviously, the Rams are more veteran and they've had guys who have been here, but notably their quarterback has not had experience in the Super Bowl before. I wouldn't be surprised if we see mistake-riddled football early, and this thing feels really ugly, especially with two coaches that like to run the ball early too. and then eventually we kind of get a levy breaks and this thing wakes up second quarter. Danny, what's the first thing that's not the game score that you're predicting? So I know this is low-hanging fruit, but I'm going, Vaughn Miller is going to have a game-changing play,

whether that's a force fumble that turns into a turnover or a turnover, like a fumble six or whatever, or just like a crucial sack. I think that is going to be the matchup where he's rushing opposite, you know, Aaron Donald and those clutch key situations. obviously I think that the Bengals are going to be set up in a good amount of third and second and third and longs. And so that's going to give him the opportunity to really tee off. The other thing that I think is just so funny about Von Miller is like he kind of went on cruise control to end the regular season. And then he's like taking his game up a notch.

He's basically, so I saw this from next gen stats. He has doubled his QB pressure rate from the regular season of the playoffs. So it was 9.8 in the regular season. Now it's 18.4 in the playoffs. So we've seen him just like basically activate and be like, look, I want to win a Super Bowl. I've had a good long career. I want to do it again. And obviously, you know, he's had a ton of success in the playoffs in the past.

I think he just kind of like goes to that next level God mode in the playoffs. So against a offensive line that's really struggled on the right side, I think Vaughn Miller is going to be a huge, huge key. And obviously, Aaron Donald is going to be someone that the Bengals have to focus on. And I think that's going to benefit Von Miller too. Ben? Yeah, so I also have a Vaughn take, which is substantially further along where I'm predicting Vaughn wins MVP and becomes one of the sixth player in league history to be a two-time MVP. We'll table that once we've talked about, Vaughn.

I'll say that I think Odell Beckham Jr. has a bigger day than Cooper Cup. And I think T. Higgins has a bigger day than Jeter. Okay, I actually had the T. Higgins over Jamar Chase. I had that too. We all did. Fine, I'm flipping it. Jamar Chase for MVP. Kevin's just going full contrary.

just asking us our takes so that he can subvert. No, no, I'm kidding. I'm kidding. So the T. Higgins over Jemar Chase is a very clear and understandable take. It's something a lot of people have talked about. Ramsey's ability to play on Chase has the potential to eliminate him one-on-one. In the event, you don't get that, then you do have to get safety help to Rams. You have to get safety help to Chase. They can move Chase into the slot and kind of attack you that way,

depending on where you want to put Ramsey in your run fits and in your zone coverage. All of this to say is the dude that's consistently on the outside for the Bengals is T. Higgins. and the dude that's consistently on the outside for the Rams is Darius Williams. And teams in the playoffs this year have loved Darius Williams. He's been their favorite player on the Rams. He's really regressed. And that's the thing is he had a really shaky start to the season. Is there a reason he's regressed?

Yes. Okay. He was a sixth round pick who was able to hold down that second corner job under Brandon Staley. And I actually talked about this with Sharp, like way, way back in the middle of the season. When you go and you install a new coordinator and you try to run the same stuff, like, all right, Rahim Morris is running the Brandon Staley stuff. The big dials stay the same. The big signals.

Oh, they're running, like, the Rams fund more too high and less one high than any team in the league. Oh, that's like what Brandon Staley did. All they're running like tight front stuff, bare front, running boss fronts, whatever. It's the little dials. It's the small adjustments. It's the technique that needs to get taught. It's the communication across the secondary that lost John Johnson, right? That lost Troy Hill that changes.

And that's where you see a player like Darius Williams, who was made tenable by the entire spirit, the entire philosophy of that Brandon Staley team, suddenly he's on an island more. He needs to be more than he was when Staley was there making the small adjustments, right? And he isn't that talented of a player, right? He was a sixth round pick. He isn't that caliber of a guy.

And so the small things that you lose going from Staley to Morris are reflected, they're magnified in the play of Darius Williams. He had a rough start to the season, kind of settled in the back half of the season, and now in the playoffs, I mean, teams are just hammered him, right? T. Higgins is a very clear advantage of Williams, especially down the field. Williams struggles to find the ball in the air. He struggles to play through contact. That's where Higgins is the best. On the other side of the ball, we've seen O'Dell have this postseason surge that Danny was talking about with Vaughn from next-gen stats.

Weeks 10 to 18, O'Dell was open on 35% of his routes. In the playoffs, that's up to 61%. He was averaging 1.3 yards per route run. Now it's 2.5 yards per route run. They get him on the backside of all their concepts. They put Cooper Cup on the front side and they say, all right, send all the zone defenders you want Cooper Cup. Play six over three. Play six over four. We don't care. Odell, right? We have this guy. now. They've never had him before. They didn't have him with Robert Woods. They didn't have him with Brandon Cooks. They were in this style player who could win one-on-one outside the numbers on vertical routes. Cito O'ousier and Eli Appler are the two outside corners for the Bengals, and you like Odell against both those matchups. I think so much attention will be given to these

star receivers, two of the three, four best performing receivers this season that the wide receiver two has become a lot more important in this game. Yeah. What's your T. Higgins's take, Danny Kelly? Yeah, I mean, it's basically the same thing. I think T. Higgins, if he wasn't on a team with Jamar Chase would be getting so much more hype and so much more love. Obviously, people recognize that he's a very good player, but what he's done in his first two seasons is really remarkable too. And he's kind of just like a unique player. He's very long, very tall, fluid though,

and he can sink his hips and create separation. He's good at the catch point. Good in the red zone. He can go deep. He's got like a really complete game, but he's just not Jamar Chase. So people, you know, obviously are not. And he's been up and down this year. He's had dropsies.

Yeah. Yeah, and so I just think he's going to be the type of guy who really steps up for them. I just think he's a baller, basically. And I think just based on the fact that if the Rams do end up shadowing with Jalen Ramsey on Chase, that's just going to open him up to really do his thing. We've seen him post-10-plus catch games in the past. So that was my prediction. T. Higgins, 10-plus catches.

I just think he's going to be the outlet for Joe Burrow when he's trying to get rid the ball quickly. He's got that advantage of size over basically. anybody. So yeah, that's what I like about Higgins. Do you want to unload your Von Miller take? I was right. So a defensive player to win MVP right now, the top two are Aaron Donald at plus 1600, Vaughn at plus 4,000. I think Vaughn, like I think Donald's more likely to win it, but I think those are mispriced. I think Vaughn should be considered. There's a lot of luck involved. Yeah. Because it's turnover. That's what it is. Exactly. And when you go and you look at, as Kevin saying, the history of defensive MVP's. Larry Brown. Right. You're seeing Malcolm Smith.

Vaugh on your seat, right, Malcolm Smith. Ray Lewis. What on earth was that? Random. Yeah. It should have been Cam Chancer, but whatever. Ray Lewis won it. And ESPN, like there's an ESPN site you can land on that's like all the Super Bowl MVP's and they have an explanation of what they did.

And the Ray Lewis explanation is let a dominant Ravens defense. No stats. No, like 12 tackles. One film just led a dominant Ravens defense. So defensive player is highly subjective. But Vaughn has already won it once. He run at Super Bowl 50. It's the last time a defensive player won it.

would be hilarious if he won it again, especially because there are only five players who have been multiple-time Super Bowl MVP's, Brady, Eli, Montana, Bradshaw, and Star. So the fact that you would have five quarterbacks and then just like Vaughn Miller for two separate teams six years apart on it, to me is delightful. You know how many solo tackles Ray Lewis had in that Super Bowl? Who are they playing? The Giants. 16.

Three. Two assisted for five combined. I really made me think that I would be idiot for not knowing. He had 137 combined tackles during the season. Went ahead and had three. That's funny. Rough. Who's the most important coach in this game?

I mean, it could be a head coach, but it also could be a position coach. I don't care. Give me a coach who's going to make a difference. I mean, I think McVeigh has to get, you know, the Patriot Super Bowl off his back. He has to get that. He said he overprepared last time. Yeah, and I think that was, let's like a talking point. That explains why we saw him just hanging out at the beach earlier today, right?

Really? No. Oh. I don't know. What if he's over-correcting? Tuesday before the Super Bowl. What if this year, Sean McVeigh is market-correcting three years ago, Sean McVe? Would be a great story for us.

He just blew the week off? Tons of market correcting, yep. So I just think, yeah, I mean, he's going to have to come in. And, you know, so like you mentioned, it's going to be like a weird, sloppy game to start the game. And then the dam it's going to give or whatever. The levies are going to break later in the game, I think he's going to have to show that he can, you know, react to what the Bengals are doing on defense. and, you know, if they're dropping eight or if they're dropping seven, if they're doing, if they're doing something that they're not expecting, how can he react to that?

Is he going to be able to, like, you know, play that game of chess where he didn't, he wasn't able to do that against Belichick. And that's still just going to be a talking point. I know that it's not necessarily completely his fault. They lost that game. But it's definitely one of the big talking points from that Super Bowl. And, you know, I don't know if he's really proven that he has changed. He has the ability to, like, manage a game late in the game and make the right decisions

when, you know, all the chips are down. So I think that's just huge for him from a narrative point of view, but also if they're going to win this game, it's going to be because they make second half adjustment. It's interesting because, Ben, the McVeigh question, so he was really in his own head after he lost to Belichick a couple of years ago. And it was interesting. I already mentioned how we thought he was over prepared.

You know, we talked to the other day over text. We were talking about, okay, well, the Rams have so much Super Bowl experience the Bengals don't have any. Like, the Rams' Super Bowl experience is getting Alphid by Jason McCordy. It was not positive, and I wonder, Sean McVeigh did so much soul searching after that loss. He talked to Andy Banoit and a couple other people and just basically said I got out coached all that stuff. It was funny. I was just talking to another reporter who was in the locker room after that game, and they said that everybody took the blame.

Everybody went full McVeigh after that. Goff said it's entirely my fault. McVeigh said it's entirely my fault. Everybody did it, and it's going to be interesting to see how that approach changes now that they've had two years to think about it. McVeigh approaches this game how and does what on Sunday? I think this approach is microcosmic of the Stafford trade of the last three years, whatever framework you want to put on, where McVeigh came into that game with the certainty that he had the X's and O's that could win out, that could beat the Jimmy's and Joe's.

He had the solution. He had the skeleton key. And to a degree this offense has become the skeleton key, right? We just saw Mike McDaniel get hired to be the head coach of the Miami Dolphins. That now means at this point a third of the league is either coach. coached or coordinated on the offensive side of the ball by this offense, right? It has become this skeleton key. But the two guys who spearhead it, McVey and Shanahan, both this past off season, made a run for Matt Stafford. McVey won. McVey also then beat Shanahan in the NFC championship game and is here. Stafford has become this keystone of this idea like, all right, this

offense works. But when it's two weeks of prep and the other team's got 11 Super Bowl caliber defender on, it's got a Super Bowl caliber defensive coordinator on it, we need something more than this, right? And from McVeigh to say it's all his fault is appropriate, like it's right and whatever, but what's reflected in the next three years of football is that he discovered he needed a better quarterback to run what is necessary to not just win in the regular season, not just make the playoffs, but win through the playoffs and land here. I expect them to come out and be extremely pass-heavy. People are worried about their, they're being, relying on the running game. We've seen that a lot since Camakers has come back. I don't think

we see it. I think they come out in their very pass-heavy. I'm not sure it goes great. Like, you know, their passing game in the first quarter of the last few games has not been super good. It usually picks up after a couple of drives. But I expect them to be very pass heavy. I expect them to be very, like, not like trick play heavy, but they're going to throw a lot of counterpunches. They're going to throw a lot of stuff you haven't seen yet. Because the entire issue for McVeigh coming into that game was everybody's seen my stuff, and I don't have the necessary counters ready.

So I think they come out. They let Stafford throw. They let Stafford shred. And they run stuff we haven't seen before because this is why you went and you got the Ferris. Take it out of the garage at this time and let it purr. the Ferrari. Let it purr, baby. If we're looking back on this game, then I'm just curious. Like, what do you think is, so obviously with Belichick, he came up with a defense. Well, he didn't come up with it, but like they utilized the defense where it was like, we're taking away their

wide zone offense. They can't run the ball. They can't do all their play action off of it. Do you think there's a something that we haven't seen from the Bengals that they could do in this game that would like slow them Rams down? Obviously, that's like a huge high level question. But like if you had to guess what would be something that you would be something that you you point to like that they pull. So it's not so much a haven't seen so much as it is the drop eight stuff. Like we know they do it. Like I said, we really have very little number of dropbacks of Stafford throwing against it, right?

And the Rams would love to be able to run against it. The one thing I think you will see the Bengals do that teams are usually very reticent, very fearful of doing, is then they'll play true tight front. When we say tight front, we mean one guy head up over the center and then two more defensive alignment just inside of the tackles. Usually teams will play those three guys and then they'll put edges. on the outside, right? Outside linebackers, it's a bare front, five guys down. The Bengals want to drop eight. So I think they're going to put those three dudes on the interior and say,

we're not really trying to rush the passer right now. Right? And that's the thing is NFL teams hate running tight because they feel like they don't have a true pass rusher. I wouldn't be surprised if the Bengals do it, especially on like, you know, first and 10, like on their third downs are going to want to rush the pass. But on first and 10, I wouldn't be surprised if they just sit in it. And they say, we're telling you, we're dropping eight. We're daring you to run the football. We're taking away the interior gaps. And we're going to try to win this game with Vaughn Bell and Logan Wilson and that might not feel great but it means the Rams are trying to win this game with Camakers and Sunny Michelle you like that exchange yeah yeah Danny if you were

parachuted into the Bengals team motel right now and you got five minutes with Zach Taylor you would emphasize what to him oh man that's tough um I honestly I would probably tell him to like get away from the early down running like just go for it that was I understood why they did that last week and like which is why it's just mitigating the sack mitigation mitigating the sack thing like fear of the man on the other the sideline as well. Sure. Yeah, I think it was just a matter of they don't want to start out the drive in a sack.

And I think, I don't know if that's just not the way that you're going to win this game, I think, like being cautious and being conservative in that way. You know, if Ben's right then and the Rams come out like swinging, you know, we could see a situation where they fall into a big lead and then you can't really count on the Rams completely falling apart in the second half like the Chiefs did last week. Yeah. You know what I mean? And so like I would just say, and this is just general towards any coaches, but like just be

aggressive, you know. You can still run on first down, but don't run on every first down, you know, every single first down. This is very much a dance with the one who brought you game. It'd be really nice to think that, oh, this scheme thing we did was why we're here. You're here because of Burrow and Stafford, baby, dance with the one that brought you. That's also why I'm picking the Bengals. Like, I like Burrow in that scenario. Love Burrow. Yeah. I think that as a defense looking at the Rams receiving core and against Stafford, we feel like if they're if they're throwing the ball in first and ten we hate that for us right if this i'll put it you this way i tell you the game is a shootout you think the bangles are winning a shootout over the ramps yes i think i think

any close game i take burrow the thing the thing to me is if we get into shootout territory that means dropbacks for burrow that means hits that means a crew into the fourth quarter okay okay i understand what i would say is that for the next 10 years i don't like borough taking hits burrow's comfortable taking hits. He's real comfortable. And he's kind of like, we talked about that yesterday. There was a kind of a completely insane quote.

Yes, I agree. You're so confused with whether or not I'm going to go there and I'm going to go there right now. There's an athletic piece up right now where they quote unnamed coaches and evaluators. It's a really good piece where they ranked Burrow, Allen, and Justin

Herbert. And one of the quotes is about Burrow. And it's from either a coacher or an evaluator that said he'll take hits he's like a general who's like we'll take some casualties in order to win the war like you like patent it used like what appeared to be like a direct quote from a general but like made no sense in the context of the war i mean it made sense that the way he's fine sacrificing human lives i don't know i don't know but anyway um point being this has gone off the rails and i love it point being there's actually some validity to that in short samples.

If you're talking about the fourth quarter, Burroughs comfortable hanging in the pocket and getting the crap knocked out of it. The problem is Ruiz and others have talked about this. We live in a post-Andrew Luck society, right? Like, that is not sustainable. They have to solve him, but I don't think him dropping back is necessary.

I think they still has to get the ball out quick because Aaron Donovan Miller are going to take his head off as we discussed. But I think that if it comes down to dropbacks, I still think Baroque can manage that. He can process very quickly, and all you need to do, he throws in a tight windows better than almost anybody

football statistically. He's good with that. He can throw guys open. Okay, so counterpoint. He took nine sacks against the Titans and then was extremely quick to release, extremely shallow throw, and absolutely was too early to his checkdowns against the Chiefs in the very next game. So for me, the last

three weeks ago... Is that a bad thing? Yes. Oh, no, no, I just meant like that was the adjustment they had to make and they won. And they did, but I would not describe the passing game that we saw from the Bengals in the first half as like good against that Chiefs. Against the Chiefs. Yeah. Right. That was the adjustment they to make because they knew their limitations.

Kind of what I talked about earlier. I think that a thing that's getting lost in the Bengals, improbable and tremendous winning against the Chiefs, is that Burrow, who gutted it out, really didn't play that good of a game. That's the thing. Is this team won? But Burrow really, like, in terms of advanced analytics,

in terms of the tape, didn't have one of his better games. Like, I'm used to seeing Burrow play better than that. I thought he would. I think he will against the Rams, just because his average game is better than that. Sure. But I'm saying that after 20 weeks, after the game he had against the Titans,

and if you start to get some early pressure, Donald and Vaughn and Leonard Floyd, I can see this ball coming out quick, and I can see the ball coming out to the checkdowns too early, which is what a quarter's defense, like the Rams run wants to make you do. And if this thing becomes a shootout, and I have one quarterback throwing 15-yard digs, and the other quarterback throwing negative three-yard flares, I want the 15-yard digs. I want Stafford. I want the quick score now, as opposed to just Burrow running a point-guard offense. I don't like that in a shoot-out as much as I like what the Rams can do. It was interesting because in Peter King's column today, Zach Taylor basically said that Burrow was calling

It's most of the big plays in overtime. It is incredible how they've just let a second-year quarterback run the whole offense. It's amazing. I think he's not even the second-year quarterback when you consider he tours ACL last November. Right. It's unbelievable. I completely forgot about that. He's like one and a half years ago.

Yeah. Nora initially made this point, but it is such a testament to Zach Taylor and Callahan that they saw what they had and said, we'll get out of the way. So many coaches would not have got out of their way. And like, we've spent a lot of time criticizing Taylor for like the way his offense works and whatever. But honestly, kudos to him for saying,

the best thing to do is let the Bronco buck, let him run it. It's incredible. I do not, like you, think all that highly of Zach Taylor. I don't think he's particularly great coach. But what I will say is that lesser coaches

would have screwed this up. Better coaches would have screwed this up because they would have said our system, our scheme, got to X, Y, and Z. I think that's a legit, great boon. It's a feather in Zach Taylor's cap.

Yeah, and we've written on the ringer this week, but like, Zach Taylor's not running the McVey offense. Not happening. It's not happening. But anyway, I think that the borough, this thing with Burrow is that he has such a command of this offense, he's such a command over the entire team, that even when he plays not as well as he has,

like, everything still runs through Burrow. In the sense that he's actually calling some of the plays, that the story a couple of weeks ago about his headset going out and him just running, basically running his own playbook. I love these legend creating stories. I mean, they're all true. Swept up in the narratives. When the narrative is this quarterback is able to overcome, almost anything and has created a culture for a franchise that has been broken for large parts of the last 40 years he makes them believe right like he makes his teammates believe that they're always in the game we get some like violin music in the back yeah there's a crescendo building right now

what kind of Spotify writes we get right now yeah can we can't hans Zimmer or whatever to do like some score here big Hans yeah um all right everyone is big first name now Zimmer is tough to pronounce how tall do you think hans Zimmer is six two I don't know. We'll look into it. You just ask that. I love that. You do the trivia without knowing it. You know, there's like an old thing in the legal world, never ask a question that you don't have to answer to. I'm the exact opposite. You're just curious. You just want to know. I've never, I've no grasp of anything I've ever asked about. So the Saints just hired Dennis Allen. I don't know. This is kind of expected. Do you okay?

Yeah, I mean, I think it's just continuity is good, obviously. And, you know, they get to keep a guy who's done a really good job with their defense. So that's obviously a good thing. they're still going to have to figure out what's going on on the offensive side of the ball, clearly, with quarterback. Obviously, with Mike Thomas and if he's coming back, I don't know, and then obviously there's a situation with Alvin Camara this week. So there's a lot of question marks on offense, but I think it does give them continuity on defense,

and that's important for them going forward. Benjamin? Yeah, I also would have hired Dennis Allen because my defense was horrible when I hired him, and then after he was there for a couple years, my defense was good, and then it just stayed good forever. And that to me is, like, how coaching works. I mean.

Like, that's just, like, to me, like, there's a such a clear way to see in, in New Orleans, how he came in, how he developed some of their younger players and some of their, their, you know, lower draft picks, but then also brought in the big draft picks, brought in the free agents, installed them and delivered a good defense. It's also a modern defense, right? Like, it's not like, oh, Gus Bradley, really coaches covered three well. He does quarter stuff, right? He does man-match stuff, like the stuff that we all lose our minds over, right?

This is a good defense, and it's a good hire. and I think that the head coaching experience he had with the Raiders will hopefully allow him to kind of sidestep a few potholes that maybe he hit the first time around. And so I very much like the hire for them. How close are the Saints? Like can the Saints be good? It's a fascinating question. How close to the Saints? It helps that the division that they're in now no longer has Brady, so that's helpful.

I wish Ruiz was here so I could make a Matt Rule joke. Ruiz didn't show up because he was triggered by the Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Joe Burroughs in the athletic. I mean, it's going to win this division. I think you could still point in the Saints and be like they have the most talent. Saints were half of Niners Rams football away from making the playoffs this year, right? The Rams finished the job up 17. But the 7th seed. We've all agreed the 7th seed is not a real playoff spot.

I have not. I'm fine with it. You like it. Listen, as a fan of the playoff balance in the ball. Then why weren't you getting upset when Matt Nagy got fired? He made the playoffs last year. Yeah, he's bad coach. Again, wins don't matter.

Super Bowls don't matter. Your playoff spots don't matter. Just box. I think the Saints, the Saints are certainly close in the sense that they can do something really well consistently that most teams can't do, which is play defense. Defense is typically not very sticky. They've been a top eight defense and I think the last like five last seven years, Barnwell tweeted it out earlier.

Like they have been a consistently good defense. That's going to help them win eight games a year, period. Get a couple of lucky hits on offense and we're cooking with gas. It's just how many of those lucky hits going to get. The idea of who's running this offense is really interesting to me. Like, have they retained Pete Carmichael and kind of try to keep the same stuff cool for continuity? Also, you don't have Drew Breeze and you have to become comfortable with that idea. You don't want it back with James?

Run it back with Jamis. Now we're cooking with gas. It's probably better. Run it back with Jamis, now we're cooking with gas. That really how we want to put out into the public sphere? James was good. He was like second an EPA per play when he was healthy. EPA for play is a team stat.

EPA Pro Play, they should hang banners. Yes, like the DVOA banner for the Seahawks. Yeah. Just now EPA for Play, because we've, to show that time has passed. In other news, if you want to call it that, Lovie Smith, it looks to be hired by the Houston Texans. This happened very quickly. I don't know what's happening. I'm confused and scared.

Danny Kelly helped me understand. I'm shrugging also because I think just the timeline here has been confusing and obviously. Oh, you mean you were confused by Adam Schaefter saying the Texans are, you? zeroing in on Lovy Smith, they're going to interview him later, and then he was hired like three hours after that. Yeah, you were confused by that timeline? You were confused by Nick Casario not committing to Lovey Smith returning as the defensive coordinator during the end of season presser, and then five weeks later hiring him as the head coach?

Yeah, yeah. What part of that is confusing, Danny? All of that is confusing. I'm actually still confused because have we actually heard one way or the other if it's official, or are they still going to interview him? I will say. No, they interviewed him last night or this morning. Okay.

It's done. The big people are tweeting out graphics with Lovie Smith. So I believe it. Okay. So everybody says it's done. Jay Glazer said it's done. I don't, I don't see an official tweet,

but it's expected to happen. So it's done. The deal is done. I don't know with a Texan thing. Who the hell knows? This is weird, Ben. Yeah. So you all remember when Lovie Smith was the head coach of the Bears?

And then like that went well and then badly. And so then he became the head coach of the Buccaneers, and then that went badly. So then it became the head coach of the Fighting Alina. And that went badly. And then the Texans were like head coached. One thing I noticed last night is that you said, do you guys remember? Yeah.

If you asked them if they remember the Buck's tenure, they don't. Because most people did not. Most people thought it was Bears Aligni. Yes. No. No. We had a extremely. 2014, 2015 Buccaneers and was supplanted by Dirk Cutter.

Yeah. And so when, you know, dirt cutter is a better option than you, you're not in a good spot in terms of like general head coaching outlook. He turned out, by the way, not to be a better option. He was just the same. He just offensive instead of defensive. At some point, he looked like it. Yeah, okay.

Lovie is out here just run and spot drop cover two in an NFL that can't persist anymore. He's always been billed as a great player's coach. I've no doubt that he's a great player's coach. I'm sure that's why David Culley brought him in because he was respected. He could work with NFL free agents. But in a league in which 31 other NFL teams are aggressively hiring young offensive minds in an attempt to, you know, maximize rookie contract quarterbacks or like, you know, go flame throw with these elite passers.

The Texans are like, maybe we let Davis Mills run it another year, and we see if Lovie Smith can get like John Grinard to extend. And they're just like playing a different sport, not in the good way. They're just playing a different sport in the bad way. I just don't really understand why they moved on from Cully in the first place. So that's like... That's a point I want to make. Yeah.

Speak on it. I mean, to me the big question here is, okay, if you're going to hire Lovie Smith, why did you fire Cully, who outperformed in it like every area that I think anyone predicted based on like, the talent on this roster and how that they were, you know, just everything that was going on around the Texans, no one expected them to be as good as they were. And then he got fired, and now they're hiring the defensive coordinator. I don't know. It just doesn't make sense to me.

So I guess I'm confused because it looks like for the last two years the Texans have done the same thing, which has run a botched coaching search and then hire a guy that didn't, that was the last option. And let's call Spade Spade. Why is it botched? Because every year, Jackie's three wants to hire Josh McCown. Right. and every year eventually somebody convinces Easterby, this is probably not a good idea, Chief. Can I give constructive criticism to both Josh McCown and the Houston Texans organization?

Please. Can Josh McCown, on his way to becoming the eventual Houston Texans head coach, work one day as a football coach full-time? He's coached the high school level when he was an active player. So he was a part-time, I think, Monday assistant. And he was like the Eagles still backup quarterback.

He was the Eagles back of quarterback. He was flying to Charlotte. I believe it was Charlotte. So why don't we, instead of trying to hire Josh McCowne every offseason, if Josh McCown had spent a year, this year, as the assistant head coach of the Texans, they could have just promoted him. Hired Josh McCown right now. We'd still make fun of them, but it would be at least better and easier.

Yes. Because we would have said, oh, well, he spent one year. Like, everyone was like, what about Steve Nash? What about Steve Nash? The Mets are in the play in right now. Yeah. Also, it's a different sport. Yeah.

But, like, yeah, I just like, right, it's a different sport. is also not working that well. Also, it's Josh McCown. It's like, it was not baseball to have baseball people too, who don't have, who aren't established. They come from,

you know, Gabe Kapler or whatever. They just come in from, from TV and it's fine. It's like a different sport. Coaching is a different deal. And everyone's like, well, he's in NFL locker rooms.

Okay, lots of people are NFL locker rooms. Like, I just, it's, they keep running the same failed coaching search over and over again. And I am not convinced that we won't be here next year

with the same exact thing happening. If a, if a book set right now the odds for who the head coach of the Texans and start 2023. Josh McCown is a favorite over Lovie Smith. Absolutely, yes. That's more likely to occur. Just work one day.

Work one day as a coach, Josh McCown. That's all you need to do. And then you can, you and Jack Eustraby can rig the next job. You can do it. There's what you try to do the last couple of months. You can do it and you can get away with it. But you couldn't get away with it yet because you haven't worked a day as a head coach. You know what they should have done?

At the beginning of the search, hired him as an assistant head coach and then promoted him. And he could have just worked for like three weeks. Absolutely. Yeah. After what we've seen from him going through the interview process. Yeah, love it. All right. Anything else, guys?

I'm excited for the Super Bowl. Yeah, me too. I'm excited from Mike McDaniel, Miami. Oh, yeah, that's going to be fun. Big fan of 49ers running game plus Miami's refusal to draft any good running backs. It's going to be good. All right. Thank you to Chris Sutton for production help with additional production supervision by Arjuna Ramcapul.

and social work by Pat Moldowney.