The Ringer NFL Show - Super Bowl Tiers: Which Teams Are Actual Contenders After Week 6?
Episode Date: October 13, 2025Sheil scans the league after all of the Week 6 Sunday action and shares which teams he thinks have all the elements necessary to go to the Super Bowl, and which fan bases are already looking forward t...o next season. (00:00) Super Bowl tiers breakdown(3:18) Tier 5: It’s not happening(4:11) Tier 4: Playoffs? Maybe. Super Bowl? No.(6:16) Tier 3: The drunk fan bases(15:41) Tier 2: The lurkers(22:25) Tier 1: The contenders 15% off $15+ on NFL Gamedays with CODE: GAMEDAY at https://littlecaesars.onelink.me/vc9i/n15m71zn The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Host: Sheil KapadiaProducer: Chris SuttonSocial: Kiera Givens and Brian WatersProduction Supervision: Conor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgopowell Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Welcome to the Ringer NFL show.
I'm your host,
Shield Capadia, Week 6 Sunday in the books.
And I think the story in the NFL right now is parody.
You can talk yourself into a lot of good teams.
It's hard to find that great team.
Even you look at the teams that are sitting first in the standings,
they all have real flaws.
So here's the deal for today's episode.
We are doing Super Bowl tiers,
trying to answer the question,
which teams can actually win it all.
If you're a long-time listener, you might remember,
I did this in the preseason,
and I thought, all right, we're a third of the way through the season.
Let's revisit this and see where these teams kind of fall right now.
So I got five tiers here.
Tier five, it's not happening.
These are teams that can go ahead,
make sure they're subscribed to Todd McShay's newsletter,
check out draft prospects,
click on those lay.
You know, you're sharing the links in the group chats
about coaching candidates for 2026.
because this season's already a wash for your teams.
Tier 4, playoffs maybe? Super Bowl, no.
These are fan bases.
You still have a reason to watch.
If one of these teams sneaks into the playoffs,
your season's probably going to be considered a success,
but you're not winning the Super Bowl.
I'm sorry.
All right, Tier 3, the drunk fan bases.
These are the people that are going to be mad at me.
These are the teams whose fan bases are most likely to be annoyed
with where I have them ranked.
I don't think your team has a Super Bowl ceiling.
You very well might disagree, especially, you know, if you've had a couple of cocktails,
you'll be ripping me.
You'll be talking to your friends.
Can you believe where this guy had us ranked?
That kind of thing.
So that's the drunk fan bases.
Tier two, the lurkers.
I don't quite have these teams as top tier contenders, but they're hanging around.
And I have a feeling if we do this exercise again in a month, six weeks from now,
I could see some of these teams making the leap to the top tier.
and then finally, tier number one, the contenders.
No real explanation needed.
Again, these teams are flawed,
but they all have a real shot at getting to the Super Bowl.
All right, let's take a break.
We come back.
I will hit you with the Super Bowl tiers.
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All right, here we go. Let's get to it. Tier 5. It's not happening. I've got eight teams here.
There's no realistic scenario where one of these teams is actually a factor in winning the Super Bowl.
I don't think you're going to be that surprised by these teams. Dolphins, Jets, Bengals, Browns,
Titans, Raiders, Saints, and Cardinals.
I don't really need to spend a lot of time here.
I mean, these are flat out, bad teams.
The only one I'll address,
Bengals fans, if you think you still have a chance with Joe Flacco,
keeping you in the mix and Joe Burrow coming back in December for the playoff run,
knock yourselves out.
You were at least competitive on Sunday against the Packers with Flacco.
I just don't see it.
Too many things would have to go right.
It's not realistic, in my opinion.
Rest of the fan basis, I don't even think you're going to argue.
with me. You're going to be like, yeah, that's probably where we belong. So let's move on to
tier four. Playoffs may be Super Bowl, no. It's possible that one or more of these teams
sneaks into the playoffs, but none of them have a Super Bowl ceiling, at least the way I see it.
I got five teams in this tier, Vikings, Bears, Panthers, Falcons, and Giants. I wanted to shout out
the Panthers real quick. That was an impressive win against the Cowboys. I feel like they were
kind of a laughing stock early in the season.
I don't know how good they're going to be,
but I do think they found something
they can hang their hat on, and that's their run
game. I mean, they ran for 216
yards against Dallas.
They're three and three on the season.
There's actually some advanced metrics,
like if you look at success rate, stuff like
that, that suggests Carolina is kind of
an undervalued team.
That maybe they're a little bit better
than as Pat Dardy, what did he call
them last week? The boomer metrics, the boomer
stats. The boomer stats might not be
high on them, but the advanced stats might be a little higher on them. So they're just a team to watch
going forward because they can run the ball, they can stop the run. They're just not very explosive
on offense. So keep an eye on them in the weeks ahead. I'm curious to see if they can emerge maybe
as a surprise playoff team. I think their fan base would be thrilled if they found a way to sneak in.
What was that? Remember Dave Tepper got mad at the guy with the restaurant, had to sign out there,
and he went in. And I think he, did he flip the guy's lid? I don't remember all the details.
But, you know, what if there's a sign about some actual enthusiasm, some positivity around the Carolina Panthers.
So that's one thing to keep an eye on the rest of the way.
Other teams in this tier, bears and falcons play Monday night.
Vikings had a buy.
Giants are the last one.
Very good game.
Thursday night.
They were impressive.
They went up and down the field against the Eagles.
Let's see if they can be a frisky team.
I feel like I still need to see more.
But at least they got a little bit of juice in terms of let's let's pay a little bit of attention.
to them here with Jackson Darts. So I'm taking them more seriously than I did a few weeks ago,
but I'm not convinced they belong in a higher tier here. All right, tier three, the drunk fanbases.
These are teams whose fan bases can probably talk themselves into a Super Bowl run.
You know, like I said, especially if you're hanging out, having a few drinks, dreaming about maybe
booking a flight to San Francisco. Just in case, do you have a friend you can stay with,
Airbnb, Hotel, what are you doing? Those things.
types of things. Maybe on a Sunday night after a victory, you're thinking about those things,
but I can't get there. And I've got six teams in this tier, the Steelers, the Ravens, the Jaguars,
the Texans, the 49ers, and the Cowboys. Let's start in the AFC North with the fan base that's
probably going to be most upset with me. And that's the Pittsburgh Steelers. They're four and one.
If you're a Steelers fan, I know you're cussing me out right now. You're calling me a hater.
You're saying I was wrong about this team before this season,
and I'm wrong about them now.
Maybe you'll be right.
I will admit the Steelers are better than I thought they were going to be,
no doubt about it.
Run game has looked good.
Aaron Rogers is doing enough.
You know, it's kind of a dink and dunk passing game.
I know they took the shot to D.K. Metcalf downfield over through them today.
So they're taking some of those.
But overall, shortest average depth of target for any offense in the NFL with Aaron Rogers.
He's taking care of the football.
D.K. Metcalf looks terrific.
And they win the turnover battle every week.
That's the real key with them.
They are first in the entire NFL in EPA on turnover.
So you have to decide, do I think this is something that is going to repeat?
It's sustainable for the rest of the season?
Or is this something where it could kind of regress to the mean a little bit?
I think you probably know where I stand with where I have the Steelers ranked here.
I don't view them as a true contender.
I don't think their defense has been.
tested. They have wins over Justin Fields, Carson Wentz, Dylan Gabriel. They beat the Patriots,
but they got five takeaways in that game. I don't think anyone watching that game thought
they really outplayed the Patriots in that game. So they get credit for the win, just saying
a little bit fluky that game. So I'm also not positive that their passive game can be efficient
or explosive enough if it has to be. You know, if it's a game where they get, they're losing,
they're playing from behind, their run games not work.
can they come back with their passing game?
I need to see that to believe it.
So overall, they've got all the nerd metrics that people like me say,
they don't seem like a real contender.
They're plus 12 point differential.
They're 3 and 0 and 1 score games.
So they're in a great spot to make the playoffs again.
They're better than I thought they were going to be.
I just don't buy them as a Super Bowl team.
Ravens.
Ravens are next.
Ravens have probably dug themselves too deep a hole here.
at one in five. I mean, that is hard to really make a run when you go one and five. However,
John Harbaugh did say that Lamar Jackson is expected to return from his injury after next week's
by. So it's not definitely over. Now, for Baltimore, it's all about finding some way. Can you find
some way to go on a run, sneak into the playoffs? Odds are stacked against them, but if you have a
two-time MVP, I think you have at least a little bit of a chance. So I kept him in this tier, again,
A month from now, I might be like, see ya.
What are the Ravens doing next off season?
All right, we got the AFC South teams next.
Jaguars and Texans.
Jaguars lose to the Seahawks on Sunday.
And can we have an honest conversation about the Jacksonville Jaguars?
Two things.
One, wildly entertaining team.
Two, a stupid team.
Can we just call them a stupid team?
I mean, if they have to, like I was doing this exercise and I'm thinking,
if they have to beat good teams in the playoffs on consecutive weeks,
they're just, they're not going to be able to do it.
They're just going to make too many mistakes, penalties, blown protections,
drops, Trevor Lawrence missing throws.
I mean, you can watch them for a quarter or a half and see a Super Bowl team,
but they're just way too mistake prone to be taken seriously as a contender.
So sorry, Jaguar.
You're getting an entertaining season.
They're winning games.
I'm just telling you I'm not taking them seriously as a Super Bowl contend.
tender. All right, Texans, let's see if they can figure some things out offensively at the
buy. I mean, their offense has played like one good game all season. So I don't trust them,
but I'm willing to watch a little longer before I say count them out completely. All right,
finally, last two teams in this tier, the 49ers and the Cowboys. We got to talk about the 49ers.
Devastating injury on Sunday. Fred Warner dislocates and fractures his ankle. That's a
reporting to ESPN.
He is out for the season.
I just don't believe the 49ers can withstand that injury.
They're four and two.
Kyle Shanahan and Mack Jones have kept the offensive float.
But remember, the 49ers were already playing without Nick Bosa.
Their entire defense, especially this season, when they lost a bunch of vets on defense.
This year, if the defense was going to be good going into the year, you needed Bosa and you needed
Warner to be stars. It was built around those two stars. Bosa is a force multiplier up front,
makes everyone else's life easier, makes your other pass rushers look better. And then Warner,
I mean, the structure of the defense, the 49ers defense, it's built around Warner's skill set,
his range, his instincts, his coverage. So I just take a step back and look at it. It's just too
much. I mean, if Warner were healthy, I would bump the 49ers up a tier, but he just means too much
to them. They're already dealing with so many injuries. This to me is the straw that breaks the
camel's back. They can make the playoffs, but they cannot get to the Super Bowl with this defense
without Fred Warner and Nick Bosa. So that's where I'm at with the 49ers here. And finally,
the Cowboys, I'm sorry. I have to sound like a broken record here. I cannot get this out of my head.
If you're a daily listener, I appreciate you. There are going to be times when you say,
Sheal, you said that already? I understand. I cannot help myself because it's the same thought that
comes to mind when I watch this football team. And I have to make the point one more time. Maybe next time
I make it you can find me. I'll donate to charity or something if I bring up this point again.
But let me make it one more time. If the Dallas Cowboys had Micah Parsons, I would consider them
a Super Bowl contender in the NFC. Let me explain. Remember back with me to when Micah Parsons got
traded. You remember some of those stats that were
circulating about how,
hey, the Cowboys defense,
when they've had Micah Parsons,
they've been the best defense in the NFL.
When they haven't had Micah Parsons,
they've been the worst defense
in the NFL. You probably thought, all right,
but that's, you know, there's probably some noise there.
That's probably not actually how it's going to play out.
Well, guess where their defense ranks this season?
Last, any nerds that you want to look at,
EPA per drive, success rate.
Remember when Jerry Jones told you, and maybe some people parroted this, that, hey, getting rid of Parsons, adding Kenny Clark, it's going to improve their run defense.
Very important, the old run defense. Guess where the Cowboys rank in success rate against the run?
Last in the NFL. If you watch that game against the Panther Sunday, you don't need any fancy stats.
You saw it with your eyes what Rico Dowell was doing in that game. So the point here is that, I'm not.
I've been so impressed with what they've done offensively.
I gave Brian Schottenheimer credit.
Last week, much to my own surprise, we give Dak Prescott credit.
They're doing it without C.D. Lamb.
They're doing it without offensive linemen.
And guess what?
They're wasting it.
It doesn't matter because their defense is just so bad.
So can they be a playoff team?
Sure.
I mean, they're competitive pretty much every week,
but they cannot get to the Super Bowl with this defense.
All right.
Let's take a break.
When we come back, we go over the top two tiers of Super Bowl contenders.
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All right, back on the Ringer NFL show.
Tier 2, I have the Lerkers.
These are teams that are not quite in that top tier, but they're hanging around.
They got a shot to get there.
I just need to see more a month from now.
I have a feeling. I'm bumping at least one of these teams up to that top tier.
And those five teams are the Patriots, the Chargers, the Broncos, the Seahawks, and the Colts, those five teams.
All right, let's start with the Patriots. Here's the deal.
If you're not a Patriots fan, you likely find Patriots fans to be, let's say, among the most obnoxious factions in the NFL.
You kind of wish bad things for them.
After two decades of Brady and Belichick,
you don't want to hear about, oh, but before that,
things are really, no, you don't really care about that.
When you've been alive, when you've been watching football,
they've had Brady, they've had Belichick,
and you don't think they need anything else good to happen to them.
So it's with great sorrow that I must report
to those of you who feel that way,
that Drake May is playing like one of the best quarterbacks
in the entire NFL.
I mean, statistically, May is first in drop-back success rate.
you look at that, their run game has been mostly horrible, and it hasn't mattered because he's been
so efficient. The question with the Patriots and with May this season is that is it too early for
them to make an actual run? In other words, is this there, hey, leap to playoff year and next year,
is there, hey, we can actually contend here. That is entirely possible. However, sometimes things
happen fast and they happen unexpectedly. And year two, if you look at kind of the recent history of the
NFL, it's a big year for quarterbacks. Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, they won
MVP's in year two. Joe Burrow got to the Super Bowl in year two. And I was thinking about
that Burrough team. 2021, it might actually be a reasonable comp here if you think the Patriots have
that type of ceiling. Young quarterback on the rise, defense that wasn't great in the regular season,
but remember that year, Louis Aniruma went on a heater in the playoffs. Are these Patriots capable of
something like that. Maybe. I'm not sure, but maybe. They have the easiest remaining schedule in the
NFL. They're going to be able to stack up a bunch of wins. They beat the bill so we know they can play
with the big boys. They need to figure some things out defensively, but you look at Rabel's history,
and he has coached his teams to some playoff upsets before. So Patriots are lurking here. I don't
know if people think I got them too high, too low, whatever, but I feel pretty strongly they belong in
this category. Again, for those of you who don't want to hear it, I'm sorry to be the messenger.
All right, AFC West, I got the Chargers and the Broncos both in this tier.
Feels like the Chargers have already played a full season. I mean, a lot of things have happened
with this Chargers team already. They're four and two. They've had so many injuries.
They escape with a win at Miami, Justin Herbert, Ladd-McConkey, huge play late in that
game, game on the line. They make the play. For the Chargers, it's really just about staying in it
and seeing what your team looks like in December because they've had all those injuries.
What does it look like when guys get back?
Are you still in the mix?
Can you get hot down the stretch?
So I do think they still have a chance, the Chargers.
Broncos are a tough one.
I don't think if you woke up and watched that, you know, Broncos Jets Sunday morning in London,
I don't think you were watching that going, man, Broncos look like they're a Super Bowl team.
But here's the reason I still have them in this tier.
They've had the best defense in the NFL so far.
I was looking at looking this up, you know, there have been four instances in the entire season
that a defense has held an offense to fewer than 10 first downs.
Three of those have been against the Broncos.
So the Broncos have done it three times.
The rest of the NFL has done it one time.
So I was trying to think about what it might look like if the Broncos actually make a Super Bowl run.
And I think it's some version of what we saw from the Eagles last season.
It's not a perfect comparison, but bear with me for a second year.
dominant defense,
offense that's kind of up and down
in the regular season.
Do you trust them?
Do you not trust them?
But they get hot in the playoffs.
Again, not a perfect comparison
because the Eagles had a lot of talent on offense.
But Sean Payton is an excellent offensive coach.
So maybe he can make up for some of the talent deficiencies.
So I think the Broncos,
just I look at them the rest of the way,
they're going to be really hard to blow out
because their defense is really good
and Bow Nix doesn't make a lot of those negative plays.
So they're kind of in every,
game. They have an edge on the lines of scrimmage, I think, in pretty much every game.
And I think they're a competitive team. I just don't know that they're a Super Bowl team.
Hence, they are lurking. All right. Last two in this category, the Colts and the Seahawks.
I'll be honest. I'm going to take you, what's it behind the curtain, break the fourth wall,
whatever you want to call it. I had the Colts one tier lower when I first did this exercise.
And then I thought, come on, bump them up, you know? Because in my heart, I don't actually
think they can win the Super Bowl, but they're five and one. They have the best point differential
in the NFL. Statistically, they have the best offense in the NFL. And then I thought, you know what,
they kind of remind me of last year's Vikings, very well coached, quarterback and Daniel Jones,
who's playing better than he's ever played before, a team exceeding all expectations.
If they still look like this six weeks from now, I'll have to reassess and bump them up to an actual
contender. I mean, if we're 12 weeks in and this is what it looks like,
then you really got, I mean, you got to take them seriously as a contender.
So that's where the Colts are right now.
They've been playing well and they've been having a really fun season.
All right.
Last team here, the Seattle Seahawks.
Impressive win in Jacksonville Sunday.
They're four and two.
They're tied with Detroit for the best point differential in the NFC.
And the thing about Seattle is that the defense has been decimated with injuries.
If you look at the guys that were playing today,
These aren't the guys that are going to be playing for them in November, in December.
So I don't think we've seen close to the best version of the Seahawks yet.
So I need to see two things.
I need to see one, Sam Darnold and the offense continue to play well, which they have done.
And then I need to see, are we talking about this as like a top five defense in a few weeks
when they get guys back healthy?
Because I thought going into the season, they could be that kind of team.
They just need to have their players back.
And it's a lot of players.
I know every team has injuries.
They've had some really big injuries specifically in the secondary.
So like the other teams in this tier, they've got a chance.
All right, finally, tier one, the contenders.
I've got eight teams here.
And I think that's the right number.
In the future, if I add eight team to this tier,
I think I'm going to force myself to bump one of these teams out.
So here are the teams I've got as actual contenders
after six weeks of the NFL season.
bills, chiefs, lions,
Packers, bucks,
Rams, Eagles, commanders.
Don't ask how I ordered them because I have no idea
now that I'm looking back at.
I have no idea why I put them in that order.
But let's start with the Sunday night game.
I thought the Chiefs looked great,
their offense specifically.
Actually, their defense played really well in the second half too.
But it's the second straight week I've watched that offense
and been like, okay,
I actually think they figure things out here because they have a top five offense.
Their offensive line is better.
They're getting Rishi Rice back next week.
And I'm looking at all these teams we're talking about.
And if I had to say, all right, you get to pick one team that you just think is going to win the Super Bowl.
I think I would still go with the Bills.
I think I would probably go with the Chief's second.
I mean, I didn't think they were going to be in this spot.
I thought this was going to be kind of a step back year.
Ravens get up there with the Bills, maybe another team.
Chiefs don't make it,
but Chiefs are in a great spot right now
after six weeks.
All right, lions are in a good spot too.
They're four and two.
They've had injuries on defense.
They're expected to get guys back down the road.
So there's a difference with these teams.
I mean, we've talked a lot about injuries.
If it's a season ender, that falls in one bucket.
If it's like, all right, their guys are out for three weeks, four weeks, six weeks, whatever,
but you're going to get them back specifically for the stretch run.
That's different.
And I think that's the case for the Lions in the secondary.
So they have a chance to get guys back.
Their offense is still very good.
I don't really look at them any differently now than I did before that loss to the Chiefs on Sunday night.
Other teams in this tier, bills and commanders both play Monday night, so we don't need to spend too much time on them.
But bills are four and one, and they have Josh Allen.
What else do we need to say?
We can nitpick about their defense.
But barring a Josh Allen injury, they're going to be a Super Bowl contender.
And then the commanders, you know, everyone expected the commanders to regress this season.
That was the popular thing in this summer.
Oh, fourth downs and one score games.
It hasn't really happened.
I mean, we'll see what happens against the Bears on Monday night, but Washington's offense
has been excellent.
Their run game has been very good.
They produce explosive plays.
And that's despite Jade and Daniels having missed two games.
Terry McClaren's missed a couple games.
So if they win Monday night, they're tied for first place in the NFC East at four
and two.
I feel like they haven't gotten a lot of buzz, probably because Daniels has been healthy,
but maybe Monday night with the win, they'll get there.
I just feel like they're well positioned right now in the NFC.
Packers, things got hairy for them against the Bengals late,
but they still won three, one, and one on the season.
They haven't played their best football yet, in my opinion.
Now, I do feel like I was saying that all year last season,
so maybe it's not a guarantee that they're going to be playing their best football here at some point,
but offense is first at producing explosive pass plays,
defense is first at limiting explosive pass plays.
That's a good formula.
So I think they need to get better,
but they're talented, they're well-coached, they're a contender.
Bucks are the next team in this tier.
With guys like Baker Mayfield,
I was thinking about this,
watching that game against the 49ers today.
We always talk about the coaching and the environment
and the supporting cast.
Anytime we talk about these quarterback reclamation projects,
We always lean on the argument that these guys are a product of their environment.
But if you're watching Baker Mayfield against the 49ers, and really for a lot of this season,
I don't think you can lean on that argument anymore.
That argument's dead.
I mean, I guess the Niners, he is without his top four, top four wide receivers,
all injured.
They have injuries to multiple offensive linemen.
He still gets it done.
Incredible scramble on third and long.
throws a bomb to Ted Johnson for a touchdown.
Johnson makes a terrific catch.
But in these games, to me, it's like a surprise when he throws an incompletion.
I mean, the ball doesn't hit the ground.
And he's now done it with different offensive coordinators, different supporting casts.
At some point, we just have to give him credit.
Like, he is making players around him better,
and he's showing an ability to perform at a high level in different types of offenses.
So I know the Bucks won a few games at the last second.
they're still five and one
and they're another team.
I don't think we've seen the best version of this offense.
Mike Evans,
Egbuka, Chris Godwin,
better offensive line.
When all that comes together
and it's supposed to come together,
it's going to be a really,
really tough offense to deal with.
So I have the Bucks as a clear contender in the NFC.
All right, who haven't we talked about here?
Two teams, Rams and the Eagles.
Rams did not have the prettiest win in Baltimore,
but they're four and two.
Two losses.
one was on a last second field goal block against the Eagles.
Other was in overtime against the 49ers.
So they look like a well-rounded team to me.
You trust the infrastructure on offense with McVeigh, with Stafford,
and their defense, they can rush the passer.
They've overachieved.
Last team in here, the Eagles.
Listen, I think they're probably the highest variance team in the NFL,
the rest of the way.
Back-to-back losses.
Offense is a mess.
A.J. Brown team's unhappy.
there's a chance this gets ugly.
And it's like, how could I have even thought about having them in this tier after six weeks?
I could see it.
I could see me bumping them the next time we do this exercise.
However, they are the defending champs.
They still have a lot of talent.
They still have Vic Fangio as their defensive coordinator.
So I'm not telling you I'm confident that they're going to figure it out.
I think there's a chance, though, at least, that they figure it out.
You know, if you remember last year, their offense was an issue late into the season,
and then they went on a run.
So let's see where they are a month from now.
Again, nothing would surprise me with that football team.
All right, those are my Super Bowl tiers after week six.
No hurry up today since we got to a bunch of the news items during that exercise.
Thanks to everyone for listening and watching.
Much more coming this week.
Really fun guest lineup we've got planned.
So check back every day.
Thanks to Christopher Sutton for producing.
Kira Givens on social and additional production.
production supervision by Connor Nevins and Arjuna,
Rahm Gopal. I'm Shil Kapadia. I'll be back tomorrow on the Ringer NFL show.
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