The Ringer NFL Show - Superstar Contracts and Bold Predictions for the 2018 Season | The Ringer NFL Show (Ep. 289)

Episode Date: August 28, 2018

The Ringer’s Robert Mays and Kevin Clark link up to discuss Odell Beckham Jr.’s new contract, what his contract means for guys like Aaron Donald and Khalil Mack, and the art of negotiating a superstar's contract (03:30). Then the guys list their bold predictions for the upcoming NFL season (21:00). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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all you have to do is use promo code Ringer NFL. Download the Seatkeek app or go right to seatkeek.com. So the Ringer NFL show on the Ringer Podcast Network. I'm Robert Mays, joined as always by Kevin Clark. Kevin, how you doing, buddy? I'm doing great. I'm just combing through people who are angry at Kurt Cousins for various takes on the office. Yeah, that'll happen. People, love the office. I don't have strong opinions about the office, even though I really enjoy it. But there aren't like office specifics that I'm willing to live and

die by. I wrote a 4,000 word story. 95% was about Kirk Cousin's contract and how he's sort of a folk here in NFL circles. 5% was on him saying he likes Jim as a character. Guess what everybody's talking about. Is there anything wrong with Jim?

I don't understand what's wrong with Jim. No, there's a very, very loud anti-Jim contingent on Twitter. I think that I don't even know. Someone just tweeted at me that I think Kirk Cousins is a serial killer because he likes Jim.

Yeah, I don't... I've never picked up. I've never picked up on that. I guess I don't know kind of the depths and the darkness of the office internet. I've never really delved into that before because I've seen the office and I like it, but it's not like my favorite show by any stress.

Here's the only thing. We try to do things that matter in journalism. Here's the only thing that matters from that story is that Kirk Cousin says that his life goal is to meet the office writers. And I think just from people who've reached out today, that's probably going to happen for old Kirk. He likes that. Good for him.

I'm glad Kirk Cousins is achieving his dreams. All right. So we're going to talk about a couple different things today. Some big pieces of NFL news this week, you know, things that happened and didn't happen. We're going to discuss those as they relate to Odo Beckham, Khalil Mack, Aaron Donald, and just the nature of superstar contracts in general.

And then we're also going to start really digging into some season preview stuff. We're going to talk about some of the corners that we're on heading into this year. We're just going to mark our territory and say we're on these corners. Not strict season preview stuff, but we're just, we're moving into these corners, Robert.

Listen, man, it's about that time. I mean, we are nine days away from the first game of the NFL season. So if we don't get on them now, then we're not going to have time to do it. Well, we got next week. Well, we don't record every day next week. So we have one more

show to do it. That's what I mean. In podcast time, we don't have that many more chances to really get on those corners. So we have to get on them now. We have to make this happen. This is such a weird year and we'll get to this. Because and all the trends we've talked about, because so many teams are set at quarterback or could be set at quarterback, because there's a general baseline of confidence with a lot of teams, it's really hard to come up with

kind of team-specific sleepers. To draw... I totally agree. And who's going to fold? I mean, to draw really bold stances off of some of these teams is much harder than it's been in previous years. We're going to get to that in a second. Let's get to the Odo Beckham Extension, which came down yesterday. Yeah.

You know, we'd heard rumblings that it was going to happen. Five years, 90 million, $65 million guaranteed. Topps Mike Evans is $55 million guaranteed number. tops Antonio Brown's $17 million a year figure. So this was the highest, the biggest contract ever given to a wide receiver. What is there to say about this? I mean, do you feel as if this is something that you just figured was a given? Do you think it's a misstep by the Giants?

When you heard this was happening, what was your initial thought? So I just want to go back to March when the rumor was that Odo Beckham's on the trading block for multiple first round picks. A couple of things we need to revisit. Number one is the fact that every. almost everybody in the NFL is on the trading block for multiple first round picks. Right? Yes. I mean,

I think there's some situations where that's realer than others. I guess that's what I'd say. But I'm just saying no one was ever going to trade him. So there's two options there when you hear that report. Either they're not going to trade them or they're lying about what compensation they'll take because no one was ever going to offer multiple first round picks for Rodel Beckham at this going into contract negotiations. That's not sort of what you do.

What I'll say is this. This seemed inevitable. I think that it's not the record smashing contract that a lot of people thought. I don't think it resets the market. You know, I was intrigued by Mike Florio, who wrote an article today, about how Sammy Watkins probably got a better deal because he did it for three years instead of six years. So he'll be able to hit free agency again, whereas Beckham will, I mean, what do we say all the time? as soon as you sign your contract, if you're a star, you become a bargain.

Because the cap's going to rise up $10 million a year. You're going to be on the 2018 pay scale, and you're going to see the market in three and four years, and you're going to say, time to redo our contract. And so I do think there's a case we made. Watkins did get a better deal because I think he got 16 a year, but again, we'll hit free agency in three years. Who knows what Sammy Watkins value will be by then? But it might be much less, depending on what he does in Kansas City.

He could catch 15 passes a season until that. and still get $20 million on his next deal. Sure. But what I'm saying generally is that this is not the Kirk cousins of wide receiver contracts. This does not change very much except O'Dell Beckham has a lot more money than he had yesterday. Yeah, I think that that's kind of what we're seeing with this one. We'll see what happens with the other ones that might come down the pipe here in the next couple weeks with Donald and Killea Mack. I mean, the Donald one may be something that shatters the expectations we have for that type of contract.

But yeah, it seems like these numbers were designed to appease Donald or appease Beckham's representation in regard to what's his name, Mike Evans and Antonio Brown. That was it. I mean, those numbers are designed to top those guys. And I think that agreed, the six-year deal kind of, I don't know, I understand wanting to settle in and wanting to get the security and wanting to hit those numbers. But I also understand Watkins people wanting him to get another deal. I know that when Gurley signed his contract,

it was done in part to get him another deal by the time he turned 30. I mean, it was very much purposeful that he will be a free agent again when he's 29. So you have Beckham, you know, he's under contract, I believe, until what, 20203. So it's interesting. I had a conversation with Andrew Brandt, former Packers executive,

for the Kirk Cousin story I wrote this week. And one of the things he said was just the goals that different players have in different leagues. in the NBA and in baseball, the goal is more years because it's all guaranteed. It's going to be lucrative. You're going to want that. You know, I saw the other day,

Buster Posey's getting some sort of hip surgery or something like that. Buster Posey, and every time, this happens every single time with baseball players. Every time it looks like, this guy's career is going south, I look on pro football, a pro baseball reference,

or baseball reference, and they've got like five years left on their deal, and it's all guaranteed. And in the last year of the deal, they're making like $30 million. It's incredible. And so all baseball and basketball players are looking for more years. And all football players are looking for is more guaranteed money.

And the trade-off can be at the end is you get some discount years. The guarantees run out and the teams have two or three years in which they have an absolute bargain. That's pretty much what happened with Julio Jones. That's why Julio Jones said, let's go back to the negotiating table. What did he get? He got a little more upfront. And then basically they're going to look at the contract next.

year and Julio Jones will eventually be paid fairly. But I just feel like for this six year thing is probably going to be a bigger deal than we think in four years.

Well, these teams are probably wanting a couple more years on the end because there's no guaranteed money. Right, that's what I'm saying. I'm saying this is that a six year deal

for a guy look at El Beckham is really good for the Giants. Yeah, exactly. The teams are the ones that are kind of pushing for those years because they have no risk involved and by the time

the cap explodes, in those years, it's going to look like a really, it's going to look cheap in comparison. So it's kind of an odd flip. And I totally agree. And that's why we probably say, why don't these guys negotiate like three or four year deals? Well, the teams probably don't want to do that. So it's not as if they're the only ones making these decisions. Mike McCartney, Kirk Cousins agent told me that if there's anything the teams can learn,

excuse me, players can learn from Kirk Cousins. It's the franchise tag can be a friend and that short contracts can be a friend. And I think when people look at that three or $84 million fully guaranteed, the full guarantees are nice. But it's also that Kirk Cousins is going to reach for agency at age 32 when most quarterbacks are peaking. And if Kirk Cousins has decent, I'm talking top 15 production in 2022, he is going to get a massive, massive payday. I mean, think about it this way. He might end up being, you know, maybe the highest paid quarterback. of the 2012 draft class.

And when you think, if you were to be told that in April of 2012, your head would have exploded. And also, by the way, that includes Russell Wilson. That includes Andrew Luck. I mean, RG3, it's not even a question. Ryan Tannhill, it's not even a question. He's going to be able to, he basically, at the end of this deal, will make five years, 130 million with the franchise tag and three-year deal. It's staggering.

And I know that the fully guaranteed part of the Cousins deal is a huge deal. and it's a game changer and it's something that people are going to look at. But it's also possible in part because it's only a three-year deal. He would not have gotten full guarantees over six years. Exactly. So, I mean, I'm not saying it's overblown, but I'm saying it's only possible because all of those guarantees are put in a three-year span. That can help. In reality, most of those guarantees go over two years.

But that's really where it changes. It's instead of a two-year guarantee contract where the third year is not, you get the guarantees in the 30 year. That's why it's a kind of a sea change. Gino Adikins has signed an extension. What does that look like? I don't know. Adam Schaefter tweets that Carlos Dunlap has a three-year 45 million extension and that the Bengals also agreed with Gino Adkins on a four-year extension per his agent.

The answer is going to be a lot of money, hopefully. Well, we just talked about how he was one of the biggest bargains in the league right now. I just love the NFL just giving us more content in the middle of a contract pod. Yeah. The live news updates are always my favorite. Okay. So let's talk about some of the other issues around the league right now because I think that everyone is looking at the Colomax situation and starting to scratch their head. You wrote about this on Monday, a very informative piece.

Robert, take us through what the hell is going on right now. I don't know. And that's the biggest. That's my question. You were talking about the two first round picks and how. that stuff doesn't really matter. We hear about it all the time, but when does it ever come to pass?

And in the Beckham situation, it was never going to. But in Mack's case, I mean, it's August 28th. The season starts in a week. They apparently aren't talking at all. So it just feels like

they're far enough apart where some of this stuff could maybe become real. And I don't know what the Raiders are doing. In Beckham's situation, he signed an extension. His cap number is going to go down this year. so they're going to have a little bit more flexibility

as they kind of try to pick off guys as the 53s get formed around the league, whatever. But next year, I mean, the Giants have very little cap space after giving him $21 million. Eli Manning, by the way, got more guaranteed money than a little Beckham, which tells you all you need to know

with the NFL salary structure. So Beckham has a $21 million cap in next year. The Giants are going to be left with not a lot of wiggle room under the salary cap as a result. I mean, they have a ton of deals that they've signed over the last few years. If they cut Eli, obviously, they save $17 million,

but even he has $6 million left in dead money. You have Janoris Jenkins with some dead money on his deal. All these guys have contracts that are not expiring. So the giants are in a precarious spot contract-wise. The Raiders are not. If the Raiders give Kalee Mack a huge extension, they'll be able to easily fit whatever his cap number is under the cap next year.

So I don't understand why they're sitting here saying, we don't need Khalil Mack long term because even if it's $20 million and you're balking at $20 million, the way we've seen the market change and the way that we've seen player value change, if Kirk Cousins is, or excuse me, if Derek Carr's were 25, isn't Caleel Mac worth worth $20? I mean, in a fair universe, Colomack. Colomack is worth a lot more than Derek Carr, but I mean, it's just, that's the price of doing business to quarterback.

Of course, but even at that, even when you take that into a, count. Even as a clue mac for 20 is still probably worth it if you're paying Derek Carr 25, correct? Yeah, absolutely. Here's my- So I don't understand. Here's my read on the situation. Every single negotiation like this, especially when there's years left on the deal, it's not true for agency, all of them get ugly and all of the negotiations are ultimately fake. What the Raiders are doing is making the fake parts real. They're actually doing the things teams threaten to do, which is not negotiate. You're going to want to negotiate because he's your best player by a wide margin.

You know, one of the things that complicates any negotiation with guaranteed money, huge guaranteed money like this, is the funding rule, which essentially says that if you have guaranteed money coming to a player, you need to cut a big check and put that money in escrow to prove you have it. It's an outdated rule. Nobody really likes it, but it exists. And when you start to look at a team like the Raiders, you say, oh, well, maybe it's the funding rule. Maybe they literally don't have the money.

But Vic Tafer, who's one of the best reporters out there who covers the Raiders, he reported today, actually, that he doesn't think Mark Davis's liquidity has anything to do with this. Yep, that's a couple different places. So wait a second. So that's it. Your number one excuse is we don't have the money. And that excuse doesn't seem to be real. And it's not even being used, by the way. So what's your excuse, buddy?

Get Colal Mac into camp. It really seems like in the end, this is up to John Gurdon. I know that he hasn't been involved in the negotiations necessarily, but by all accounts, he's the one that has final say on this. And it just feels like he's dragging his feet here. And I just don't understand why you would want alienating your best player and potentially losing him a year out to be the defining moment of your first year's head coach. I have a question.

Is the reason John Gruden wants to go back to 1998 because he just never, everything, he just says 1998 brain and Colomac is like nine years old? Maybe that's it, or he just doesn't understand how he's making 10 million and how could a player possibly make twice as head? Hey man, where's John Randall at?

Well, can we get him in here? I just don't really get it. Do you have a read on this? Do you have a theory on why this might be happening? I had the funding rule theory and that apparently is not real. I literally, I was like, oh, they obviously don't have the money. They're cash strapped.

They gave John Gruden $100 million. They're moving to Las Vegas. And that, if the Raiders reporters are accurate and they are accurate, then they've got the money. Okay. So what next? Figure it out, guys. He's your best player. So I guess pay your best player extends to Los Angeles as well and the Aaron Donald deal.

It seems like that's going to be the market-shattering one. I mean, that's going to be one that doesn't necessarily ascribed by the contracts that normally exist because he's a market-shattering player. He's transcendent in the sense that his position doesn't really matter. And even as a defensive player, it seems like he has a more outsized impact on the game than even a guy like Von Miller does.

So the reports are now that it's going to be like $22 million a year. You know, he's going to have upwards of $80 million in guarantees. And this is going to get done in the next. couple days. I know that seems massive compared to what the market is right now. Yvonne Miller makes $19 million a year, $70 million guarantees. But when Von Miller signed his extension in 2016, the highest paid NFL player was like $25 million. I mean, the way that the market has changed over that two-year stretch is such that I don't think this is crazy. It just feels like this is in line with what Aaron Donald is worth. So one of the things that we need to keep in mind is

there will likely not be the sort of NBA-style cap shrinkage in the way that the basketball has suffered the last two years. There is a sort of smoothing of the cap. The cap rises double digits every single year. So there's no reason that you shouldn't, you know, the highest paid player and the shatterings and all that stuff, that's going to happen yearly from now on. Yeah. And Aaron Donald was hopefully going to be the one who resets the market. from the defensive tackle standpoint and the defensive player standpoint

defensive player standpoint hopefully but no just as far as value goes just a non-quarterback reset will be happening and then next year we'll have another next year we'll have another I think that it actually does benefit sort of the non

super duper stars I think guys like Mike Evans make more money than they would with the rising cap they're not the type of guys who would normally shatter and break records but they are now with the rising cap And so I just think, I don't think people put enough emphasis on how much the economics of the game are going to change just year to year from now on. Yeah. I think that there are some players that kind of stand out. I mean, I don't know who the next player would be outside of Donald to make something over $22 million. That guy is harder to find for me at that position than it would be a spot like receiver. But I think you're right. I mean, it's just these numbers are not.

I think you have to look down the road at Joy Bosa. Yeah. It's probably a couple years from now. Yeah, you're right. Jalen Ramsey maybe. We'll see what happens with the cornerback market. It's not typically at the same level of the pass rushing, which is essentially where Aaron Donald falls.

Right. Okay. When we come back, we're going to mark out our corners for the 2018 season, but first a quick break. Let's talk fantasy football. The league, the rules, the punishments, the trash talk. Fantasy football starts with, you, Camish. It all fires up when you get the league back together. And while you spent the

offseason doing whatever non-fancy football thing it is you do, Yahoo has spent the off season making some serious upgrades to enhance your league experience. Upgrades like easier scoring, new trophies, and a buttery smooth app experience. So when you hit that renew league button on Yahoo.com slash fantasy football, your season will be legendary. So Camish, grab the league, set a draft date, and let the fantasy. football flow. Renew your league now at Yahoo.com slash the ringer fantasy football. We want to stream NFL Sunday ticket live every Sunday, even if we can't get DirecTV where we live, because we want every play. Even if we don't live in a house with satellite, because a lot of us

live in apartments or college campuses. But we want to stream NFL Sunday ticket. To see if you are eligible, go online to NFL Sundayticket.tv and stream every NFL Sunday ticket game this season to follow your favorite team no matter where you live. Use promo code ringer at checkout to say 15%. Package is also available for football fans living in areas where direct TV service is not available. All right, bud, we are going to stake our territory here as we go into the season. We're going to pick a couple different topics that we feel strongly about, whether these are trends.

We're going to do some teams. We're going to do some results. So why don't you start off with your first one? Okay. So I think this is going to define, especially the early part of the season. I think that the scoring is going to absolutely explode. I think it's going to be a score-palooza. I think that between all of the competent quarterbacks,

I think that because of the new generation of coaches, because the RPO completion percentage league-wide is around 70%, because somehow this generation of quarterbacks can complete 66% of their passes are just on normal throws, because defense has been neutralized by rule changes, the middle of the field is going to be wide open. They're going to be able to scheme guys open all the time. And I think even, I don't think it's funny.

Before we started this show, I was looking at the highest scoring teams of all time. And the vast, vast majority of the top 20 are pretty modern era teams. Even teams like the 2015 Cardinals, the 2014 Packers, you know, a bunch of Saints teams. that obviously the 2016 Falcons, they're all in the top 20. And I don't see a team scoring 600 points this year. I just see a lot of teams scoring 400 points, which is what eight teams did last year. And so I think, you know, there was record-setting scoring for, I think, five straight years from 2011 to 2017.

That went down a little bit in 2017. I think it goes way up in 2018. I think there are so many factors leading to that. Everything you mentioned, plus a couple more. You talk about RPO's just the types of offenses that attack that area of the field. Those offenses are becoming more prevalent just because of who's getting hired now. Yep. I mean, you just consider how widespread the Reed Peterson kind of effect that's going to happen on the NFL.

I mean, you have Reed Peterson, Matt Nagy, Frank Reich, John D. Philippo, is calling plays in Minnesota. So you have all of those guys. Then you have what's going on with McVeigh, Shanahan. Matt Lefleur is now in Tennessee. So just as these tentacles kind of spread throughout the league. And again, like you said, the competency of the quarterbacks is a huge part of this. There aren't that many offenses where I'm looking at and I'm saying that's going to be

just a completely inept group. There are defenses that I'm thinking that about, though. It just feels like there are fewer dominant or even decent defenses right now than there our offenses by a lot. So I talked to Lincoln Riley a couple weeks ago, the Oklahoma coach, and he said to me, I'll write this in a couple weeks as part of a bigger piece, but

Super Bowl was a big 12 game. Super Bowl was a big 12 game. And I shared that quote with a couple of GMs around the league, and they laughed, and he said, absolutely. I mean, it was 41-33? Yeah. That's some big 10, excuse me, Big 12 shit, it's not some big 10 shit.

Some big 12 shit. I mean, it's it's everything. It's shot. gun, it's RPO's, it's wide open. It's, in a lot of cases, no defense. And we're trending towards that. What happens after a team wins the Super Bowl? Everybody tries to rip them off. You know, I think a lot of teams were studying the Eagles. A lot of teams are studying the Rams. And what do those teams do? They just throw the ball all over the field. And so I think you'll just see more aggression. I think that the Eagles showed that you can be more aggressive on a football field, maybe go for it on fourth down. Mike Tomlin and Doug Peterson are going for it for two all the

time, that's great. So I just feel like you can see the sort of conservative elements of the game working themselves out. I think that coaches can just take these quarterbacks, and Andy Reid said it a million times. Quarterbacks are throwing thousands of times more than any other era in history, and coaches are now able to take that arm talent and put into something in the NFL. Because five years ago, they were taking these spread guys had no idea what they were doing. They had no idea how to mold these guys in NFL guys. Now they do because they have more open minds and that's going to result in instant offense in 2018.

In that vein, I think that the chiefs are going to be the best example of that. That's my first corner here is I think the chiefs are going to be, if not the number one scoring team in the NFL, certainly in the conversation. Not number one. You're not going to go to the NFL and scoring. All right, fine. The chiefs are going to leave the NFL in scoring. Let's do it.

That's done. All right, done. I think that they are going to. to be the most dynamic NFL or offense in the NFL by far, whether or not that leads, that pairs of the efficiency to kind of get them at that point. That remains to be seen. But I think it can absolutely happen. I feel like what Mahomes has showed so far is exactly what you need him to show.

He's not on the same level as Alex Smith in terms of early diagnosis. There are things that he doesn't necessarily pick up as quick. And that's just by virtue of only spending two years in the league. I think he's a smart guy. I think that he definitely understands what's going on. He'll get there, but you need a decade to do it. So what happens is Mahomes makes up for that by creating plays that weren't necessarily there. And throwing the ball 79 yards.

But that's the thing. That touchdown, he waited until deep into the down to throw that ball. But he can do that. And that's the thing about Mahomes is just that there's so much talent there that plays are just going to be able to get created out of nothing. So as so many of those Tyree kill touchdowns last year from Alex Smith, those aren't extended plays that they chuck it down the field 70 yards. That's two steps and go. I mean, he knows he's going there instantly.

But it just feels like with the talent they have, the speed they have on that offense, they're going to be some of those plays, but they're going to be just as many where Mahomes is able to kind of say, all right, I'm good enough to make this happen. So I feel like as he kind of figures out the offense and more of those touchdowns just by design and recognition come over the course of the season, it doesn't matter. As more of those happen, he's going to be able to make up for it with, all right, I'm good enough to just say this is a touchdown because I want it to be.

Yeah, I mean, I think the world of them, I don't know what the offense will look like in 2018 as far as, like you said, efficiency should be the buzzword there. And that's the high end of that Chief's offense is going to be breathtaking. And we're just figuring out what the floor is. And I do agree they'll be in the mix for highest scoring offense because of the weapons, because of Mahomes. Let's look at the highest scoring offense from last year. Rams, 478 points for number one, up or down for them. I think down.

I think it's safe to say they'll probably take a step back. Yeah, I think they'll still be very good, but that team screams regression, especially at offense because they didn't necessarily add anyone. Obviously, Cook. Brandon Cooks. Cooks comes in, but they brought Cooks in essentially to give them the same offense they had last year. Even if you think he's a slight upgrade over Sammy Walker. which he might be. I still don't feel like that's enough of a change on the whole to think that they're going to be better talent-wise to overcome the step back just by math they'll probably take.

Okay, Patriots, 458, up or down? Down, I think. I think I agree. I'm less excited about their offense. I just, the receiving core is worrisome and all that stuff. I mean, I just feel like as good as Brady is, as much as they may have gronk all year, I'm just not as excited about them. Eagles, 457, up or down. Probably down. You could say that, but I mean, think about how bad they were at the end of the season with foals. They had one month of foals. Yeah.

And then also, that also includes. And they also didn't care for a couple of those weeks. Because they had the division route up on December 1st. How do you feel about what's going on there? Do you think that the Wentz situation is going to be worried about yet or no? I mean, I think it's always something to be worried about if a guy's come back from an ACL because you don't want to rush that. And he's still not playing yet. He's not cleared for contact.

No, we're cleared for 11 and 11s. So I'm worried about it only because I'd be worried about anybody. I'm not worried about his specific case more than I'm worried about Deshaun Watson. All right. I'm much more worried about Watson than I'm about Twent's than I'm about Watson. Why? Because we've seen Watson play. But Watson also has previous ACL tears.

I'm not worried about that. If you're back and feeling good right now, that's okay with me. I'm just worried that Wents is not back and playing. I know his happened later. Well, he's happened. Yeah, he's up on December 1st. Sure. But just in terms of its impact on the season, I mean, this is going to be real.

If he doesn't play for three or four games, for as good as Nick Foles was, it's a downgrade. It still is. Right. And the reason that team was so high flying at the beginning of the year was because of Wens. I mean, their offense struggled at the end of the season with Foles. I know the playoffs were great, but their ceiling is definitely defined by whether or not Carson Wentz plays. Okay.

Two more teams that score more points than the Chiefs last. year. Saints 448? I think that goes up. Me too. Me too. That plays into my next one. All right. And then Jaguars 417. Down. Yeah. And then that's the Chiefs 415. How about the Lions? 410, 7th in the NFL? I have no feel for that team whatsoever. None. None. They're on my short list of just like, I don't know. I have no idea what's going to happen. I'm ready to believe anything. But exactly. I so am. But yeah, I think that the Chiefs could just be the best show on every Sunday. I mean, if they put up like 30 a game, it wouldn't necessarily shock me. I think they have that potential. It's kind of funny because I did the Red Zone power rankings last year,

and the Chiefs were number one with Alex Smith. I know. And now they just added one of the most exciting quarterbacks in football to a team that was already maybe the most exciting team last year with Alex Smith. All right, what's your next one? It's ridiculous. This, we just talked about a little bit. I think Michael Thomas leads the NFL in receiving. I just feel like what we saw from him at the end of last season. He came on so strong. He was dominant in that playoff game against Minnesota against a very good secondary. And I think that defense takes a significant step back just by virtue of, again, progression comes for these teams that take huge leaps from one year to the other. They were abominable in 2016. They were really good in 2017. And I just

think that 2018, they take a slight step back. If you consider that, it just feels like they're going to have to throw the ball more, and I still feel like he's a transcendent talent out there. And this seems like the year where he just takes a monster leap forward. Yeah. I mean, in that offense, that offense is going to be incredible, like, awesome. I mean, that, that assuming Drew Breeze can keep taking the unprecedented steps of being that good and that efficient into his 40s. And there's, at some point, there'll be a drop off, but I see no evidence.

to be this year. No reason from last year. Like, raw production was the only thing that went down last year. He was excellent. He was excellent. He was efficient. I mean, I think that in a weird way, you know, Bill and I have taught Bill's whole thing as he thinks that there's a couple of those guys are going to start to fold soon.

I think that Breeze is sort of a almost like a, and completely different players and completely different everything, but not unlike Rothesberger, where if he has any sort of talent, decline, he has weapons around him who will mask that a little bit to or it won't be an unbelievable drop off. Rathusberger has Bell and Brown. That's as good a combo as you can get. Kamara and Thomas, pretty good combo to have around you. Yeah, I totally agree. I think that there's

just enough options there that they can just figure out a way every single week, even when it's not working on one side. Even when the running game's not working, let's sling it around. Even when, you know, teams are trying to take away breeze, let's pound away. And that's why I think they were so good, last year. I just think they're going to need to score more to stay in games, which means throwing more. And if I'm throwing, I'm throwing it to that guy. Yep. Okay, let's take another quick break. This NFL season, be your GM, be a winning GM. Turn this season into a fistful of epic wins by joining a Yahoo! Fantasy Football League. Yahoo has spent the offseason making serious upgrades to enhance your experience. Upgrades like easier scoring, new trophies, any buttery,

smooth app experience. So when you come to play fantasy football on Yahoo, the wins are as epic as the season is long. But to get in on the wins, you have to get in on the season. Yahoo Fantasy is the only app where you can manage all of your season long and daily fantasy teams in one place. Create or join a league now at yahoo.com slash the ringer fantasy football. All right. I am going to make a controversial call here.

The helmet rule will not matter after October 1st. What makes you say that? So I just think that there's a, there seems to be every couple of years a big push to change the game. And it's funny because when players say, oh, they're changing the game, that's the point. The NFL owners want to change the game because they think it's gotten too violent. But you look at 10 years worth of sort of doomsday quotes about the rule changes. Troy Palomalo 10 years ago said it's flag football. I don't know how we're going to play.

That seems like a million rule changes ago. And eventually... It was a million rule changes ago. Yeah. And that was 10 years ago. James Harrison briefly retired like 50 rule changes ago because he couldn't play the sport anymore. Everything normalizes the referees.

The referees will become a little more shy about throwing the flag, I think. Because I think they know it's just human nature. I talked to a couple people in the league. Eventually, they know that it would literally just ruin the flag. sport if on September, you know, after September 20th, they're just throwing five helmet flags a game. That's just not something a referee wants to do. Now, here's what I do think. I do think the season will be defined by bad calls because the new referees are coming in. There's I think four new officials, basically a quarter of officials will be rookies this year. And I think

that's a really, really big deal, especially with all the new rule changes. I think we're going to see a lot of crappy calls. I think there's going to be a lot of hand-wringing about officiating, but I don't know if long-term the helmet rule is going to be a big deal. I think it's, I think the first three weeks of the season will be helmet rule central. I think we're going to be talking about it all the time. I think a team's going to lose a game because of it. I think maybe, maybe each week a team might lose a game because of the helmet rule. But then it starts to sort of mold into the same way it always molds into and goes back to being football. It also seems like it's already starting to become less important and less emphasized.

I'm looking at the Vante Davis hit from this week in the preseason that was pretty violent. I think would have gotten called instantly, but it wasn't a penalty. I think they're kind of stepping back from it a little bit because they understand, again, that they just can't call this every time they think it's going to happen because it would ruin the game. So I already see that happening, and I agree with you. I feel like by week three or four, we're going to be past it in a way. Well, so the interesting report this week is basically that the referees called so many early in the preseason because they wanted to get a bunch of calls on tape and then look at what

worked and what didn't. Stuff like that. Yeah. And so I think that's kind of what's really interesting to me is that maybe this whole thing was overblown. I don't know. Yeah. I feel like that was always going to be the case.

I mean, when these new rules get instituted, there are a lot of reasons that we're going to see them more often. So the fourth week of the preseason was probably a better example of what we're going to see. And I'm okay with that. I mean, if it's a couple more here and there, if one bad call does swing a game, I think that's inevitable. But it's not going to be this massive problem

that we never stopped talking about the same way it was in weeks one and two. My prediction is we don't talk about it on the show after, yeah, October 1st. God, I hope so. That sounds great to me. All right. My next one is that I legitimately believe that the Browns have the right players. Yes, Robert. So let me, let's qualify this though.

Yeah. Everything I've seen from this team. He came up with it 10 seconds ago. He's already walking it back. No, no, no, no. I legitimately believe the Browns have the right players. I know my corner is that this year, I am going to be driven insane by how bad the coaching on that team is.

I just know that this is going to be the year where I'm sitting there being like, how is this a possible? Like, how is this possible? How is this allowed to happen? And I understand, but it just feels like we really could have gotten. out in front of this, if John Dorsey had picked a different coach before any of this had started? I can see why he's given it one year. That's fine.

You can give it one year, but I just know it's going to be maddening for people who like the players on that team. Everything I've seen from them, it's just like, wow. Like, what Miles Garrett has done in the preseason, what David Joku has done in the preseason, Tyrae Taylor, what Jarvis Landry has shown them. Even like Carlos Hyde has been pretty darn good. So having to watch that team be coached by the staff that it has, knowing the kind of potential that may exist for it, as a football fan, it's just going to be really difficult.

And I just know it's going to be one of the defining parts of my season. I have a question, Robert. You root for a franchise that I don't think it's out of bounds for me to say. It's a miserable experience rooting for that team. Recently, yes. Yeah, okay. So why do you then co-opped other miserable teams to the compound this.

Don't you have enough problems? No, I'm a glutton for punishment and I really hate myself. But I also just love good players. And I want those players to succeed. I mean, I feel like what the Browns did under Sashi and the players that they accumulated, it was right in a lot of ways. It was wrong in others.

And I think we're going to see the fruits of it often this fall. And it's going to be in just how dynamic and athletic and just sudden that roster is. that, I mean, you just throw out those guys on one team. It's just going to be like, God, these guys move around. But I just don't trust the people telling them where to move around. That's what I'll say. Hey, what's your best bear's moment of your life?

The Devin Hester put return or the Devin Hester kickoff return in the Super Bowl. That's exciting. It's in the Super Bowl. Yeah, no, I got you. Yeah. I mean, that 2006 Bears season was pretty damn fun. The Levy Smith era in general was not disappointing. I mean, that was, they were one of the more successful teams year in a year out in the league.

It had its issues. And I think most of those were tied up in Jay Cutler, but I mean, that was not a miserable team to root for. They were always in contention. Yeah, I got you. All right. Last one for me. I already said this on a couple of other shows, multimedia things here at Therriner.com. I'm driving the Vikings NFC Championship bandwagon.

I just feel like they are in the exact right position. they have the right mixture of stability and new additions. I think that Mike Zimmer is a good coach. I think John D. Philippa is a good offensive coordinator. And I am on the corner that they're tied for second favorites for the Super Bowl. I'm not ready to predict a Super Bowl champion just yet. But I am all in on Vikings improving by one game and winning the NFC championship. We talked about this a lot over the last few weeks,

just how much we appreciate the way that Rick Spielman is tuned into his franchise. and I think them going out and trading for Brett Jones this week is just the latest example. Understanding that, okay, we have a limited window to win a Super Bowl. Our offensive line on the interior is a mess, especially because we have no idea when Pat Elfline is coming back. To go out and say, let's go get this guy because we need a little bit of stability for at least the next few weeks, it just shows his understanding of the trajectory of this team. And we'll see what happens after that. That is the one area of that roster that I still have very big concerns about.

And even with Jones. It's a line. Yes. Yeah. It concerns me a lot. So with Jones now at center, you're at least saying, okay, we have an answer there. Now is Rashad Hill, the guy at right tackle? When Elfline comes back, do you want to try to move Jones to guard and maybe move

Rammers back to tackle? I just don't know how that's all going to shake out. I don't think there are any answers I feel great about right now. but again, I feel better about it today that I did two days ago before Jones got traded. Yeah, so there's a couple of things that intrigue me about the Vikings offense. Talk to John DiFilippo about Kirk Cousins,

and he thinks that basically Cousins has all of the things you need to run an RPO, quick decision making quick hands, ability to be open to new things, which I think is something that is overlooked a lot of times with quarterbacks. I mean, I think that we can all look at Joe Flacco trying to run the Wildcat with Tyrod Taylor or Jay Cutler and realize that some guys just don't want to run innovative offenses.

But the other part of that is that I think the two biggest trends the last couple of years are number one RPO's number two play action. Well, Kirk Cousins is the best passer over the last three years by quarterback rating as far as play action goes. So they have a very multiple offense coming. A very, very, they can do whatever they want to do back there. I mean, obviously the one thing they can't do is have much of a quarterback run game, but they've got enough weapons there where they can figure that out. Dalvin Cook is going to be healthy this year. I think they're going to be able to do a lot more things people expect.

I mean, you know, Adam Thielan, I think was the best, I want to say, the best receiver last year at Digrout. So you can start to throw the short ball, do that short pass. where the league is trending. But on the other hand, Kirk Cousins is the third best deep pass around the league in the last three years. So they're going to be able to do whatever they want to do based on the game, the matchup, and the situation. I totally agree. They have so many ways they can attack you.

And play action in RPO's, I feel like they're connected in some ways and not in others because they're connected mentally. I think that being able to kind of process information fast, being able to transfer the ball quickly, that is the same for RPO's in play action. It's just more of the footwork that's different. I mean, I look at a guy like Josh Rosen, who I feel like has great kind of mechanics in the play action game. Matt Ryan always has.

But that's from under center, not necessarily from shotgun. So I think that's the biggest difference. And that's probably going to be fine. But I do think they're connected in some ways. And I think that Cousins is a smart guy. And we often just don't take into account how many RPO decisions are made before the snap even happens. Yep. I mean, there's so many of them are about.

recognizing coverage, recognizing favorable boxes. And that's one of the things that people love about Kirk Cousins. So that makes sense to me. It's more about whether their offensive line can hold up. I think the defense is just something you can pencil in. I still believe that. It's the same group we've seen. What happened in the NFC championship game last year does not worry me after seeing

that entire season and what that group can do. So I hear you. I don't think you're far off with that. I just, that offensive line as an offensive line guy has given me pause so far. All right. Anything else? I think that's it, buddy. Love it.

All right. We'll be back next week for, uh, yeah, one more show before the season starts. I will be in Los Angeles. So we will be doing some stuff there, uh, in the lead up to week one. And I'm excited. We're almost there. We're there. All right.

Talk to later, but thanks, guys. Appreciate you listening to the Ringer NFL show on the Ringer podcast network.