The Ringer NFL Show - Takeaways From the Owners Meetings and How J.J. McCarthy Can Affect the Draft | Dual Threat

Episode Date: March 27, 2024

Nora, Steven, and Austin recap the latest news from the owners meetings and discuss the ceilings and floors of the 2024 QB class. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please check out theringer.com/RG to find out more, or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Nora Princiotti, Austin Gayle, and Steven Ruiz Producer: Stefan Anderson Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Musical Elements: Devon Renaldo Social: Kiera Givens and Eduardo Ocampo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

There are a lot of quarterbacks in the NFL draft this year. My name is Ben Solac and I host the Ringer NFL Draft Show with Danny Kelly, Danny Hypatts, and Craig Horlebeck. We cover trades, free agency, and the draft, which is, yeah, obviously, we'll tell you about everything, which includes which quarterbacks are good, which quarterbacks are bad, and which quarterbacks are just Kirk Cousins. That is the Ringer NFL Draft Show. Search the Ringer NFL Draft Show on Spotify. Hello, and welcome to Dual Threat on the Ringer NFL show feed. I'm Nora Puntzi. And I am joined this week, as always by Stephen Ruiz.

Stephen, how are you doing? I'm doing well. And Austin Gale. Austin, how are you on this fine Wednesday? Doing fantastic. I'm excited to talk about. Thrilled to hear it. All right.

I have returned from Orlando where the NFL's annual meetings took place over the last few days. And it's always an interesting time. I mean, you see all these people with their families and kind of get a sense of what they act like and what they look like off duty, which is always sort of fun. and entertaining, but there's always rules changes and you get to check in with coaches and executives on some of their thoughts on free agency and also what might be coming up in the draft. So what I thought we would start with is that I, I've got five takeaways from the meetings. I'm going to throw them at you guys and then we can just talk about them. I'll go one by one.

And I'll start with the. kickoff rule change, which was one of the role changes that was approved, which, you know, it's the kickoff. It's not exactly everybody's like most dynamic cared about play. But this is a pretty major overhaul of what kickoffs are going to look like. The rules changes that were adopted make the NFL kickoff pretty similar to an XFL style kickoff. So if you've watched XFL football and you've seen what. that kickoff looks like, you have a sense of what the kickoffs are going to look like under

these new rules. But it's pretty different. The basics, and if you really want to understand this rule, you're going to probably have to spend some time with the actual language of the change because there's just a lot to it. But at least 19 of the 22 players who are on the field for the play. So 10 from the kicking team and nine or 10, it's their choice from the receiving team, are going to be lined up five yards apart at the receiving teams 35 and 40 respectively. And they're blocking each other. They can't start running until the ball has touched the ground or is fielded by the returner. Another change is that the kick has to land or get fielded in between the goal line and the 20.

So the major implications, one, probably going to see more significant returns. We saw, I mean, hours after this rule change went into effect, the Steelers went and signed Corderole Patterson to a two-year deal worth up to $6 million, presumably because they see his return ability as significant now that these new rules are in place. another thing is that the surprise onside kick is out of the game. It is no more because of the rule that the kick has to land or get fielded in that zone. It makes an onside kick inviable. What they have done to replace it is that you can do an announced onside kick up to twice per game.

Both of them or any of them have to be in the fourth quarter. And obviously you can't do it as a surprise. So I know that that's a lot. The kickoff as we know it is is fundamentally different going forward. Stephen, do you have big kickoff thoughts? No, I like this change. I do like the change. I was a season ticket holder for the D.C. defenders.

So that's why, yeah, I wanted to see what you thought about this because you know some ex-fell football and that's where this comes from. I know some XFL football and I like the kickoff. I thought it was unique and I thought it was more strategic. I thought it was more in line with what football actually is. I think the biggest loser here is NFL films because you used to get the dramatic kickoff shot where all the kickoff team is running, the kickers running. It's all in sync.

And now you don't get that anymore. And that's the biggest loser. But I do think teams are going to be able to scheme stuff up because, like, how you described it, it's more of a line of scrimmitch situation. Right. So, I mean, I feel like you could have like pooling blockers. You can have like a power run play kind of thing, like a counter run play type of thing. Teams could have one or two guys back there.

so they can do some funky stuff with that. I think it's going to make the game more interesting. And I think it's safer than the last kickoff. I think it's more interesting than the last kickoff. And I think the only reason people are pushing back against it is because it's different. If the roles were reversed and we were used to this kickoff and we changed the traditional kickoff, everyone would be mad about that too. So don't listen to those people.

The only critique of it that I thought was funny was that I saw just some dumb tweets being silly. calling out the fact that the special teams coordinators, of which there are a couple on the competition committee, and that's, you know, they were the ones who did a lot of the nitty gritty on this, on adopting this proposal and advocating for it, that those were the people who were eliminating the ability for them to do an onside kick by surprise and just that that was the scared to compete moment. But I don't think that that's actually, I just thought that was funny. I don't think it actually matters. I do think that you mentioned the Pittsburgh Steelers signing, Cordadale Patterson, arguably,

one of the best kickoff returners of all time. I do think that teams are going to want a good kick returner now, more so than previous years. In 2023, 22% of kickoffs were returned. And the XFL, 93% of kickoffs are returned. So you're going to see a higher percentage of returns. And I think that's going to affect field position a ton. You're not going to see these automatic starting on the 25-yard lines, at all. Like it's either if it bounces in the landing zone, which is from the one-yard line to the 20-yard line, and then rolls into the end zone, you start on the 20, right, which is even further back than where we started last year.

If it bounces in the end zone, so if you just kick it all the way through, they start on the 35, which like, no teams aren't going to do. No teams are now going to boot it through. There's no fair catch is allowed. If it's landing in the landing zone, they don't let it roll into the end zone. They essentially have to return it. I think it's going to lead to, well, obviously more kickoff return touchdowns, which is, I think, the whole goal of everything, trying to get more of those explosive plays and those cool plays from this kickoff.

And I also think that average starting field position is going to be completely different. If anything, a little bit moved forward, moving to, like, the 30, the 35, closer to those spots, especially as teams become adjusted. The other thing I thought about is this is going to look so, you mentioned it, but like, it's going to look so weird opening the Super Bowl with this thing. It's a completely different game. Like we're like, it's not going to be, it's not going to be easy to explain the kickoff rules at the big Super Bowl party this year. It's like, well, yeah, it's different.

They're trying it for this one year. It looks like kind of stupid, but, you know, we really do like it. And I'm interested to see how it plays out. And like, kick returning is fun. I do think that there's that tweet, there's a moment in every kickoff where you think he's going to take it back. We're going to get that finally again. 93% of kicks are going to get returned.

So I do. Yeah. if like how kick returners look changes. Like I wonder if we get more like traditional running back styles because like it is more like a traditional running play. At least that was the case in the NFL. Like we saw plays that resembled run plays if you squinted your eyes hard enough. So I wonder if that changes.

I'm kind of interested in this declaring the onside kick thing. And I think we should declare more things in the NFL. Oh, I was going to add maybe biggest winner out of this. Is Devin Hester getting into the Hall of Fame before this rule change? Or maybe biggest loser because all of his records are cooked. If this thing stays around, there are going to be people who score way more. Yeah. I feel like Devin Hester would have cooked in this.

He would have. No, I'm saying Devin Hester would have. Yeah. He would have been fantastic. Or you think back to like Dante Hall and, you know, there's been a handful of returns in the past that would have like really, really, really had success with. That's a W for Hester, though, because now he can do like the old NBA thing, the old head NBA guys. I would have dropped 50 in this league. He would be like, oh, my records would have been insane.

There is going to be a Devin Hester moment where he's like, I would have returned every kick to that. He's going to say that. Can we back up for a hot second to what Stephen you think should be announced? Yeah, the onside kick. Now, I want teams to go all out in this. I want like a medieval caller to come out with like a trumpet. Onside kick, yes.

We're sending out Eddie Pinero to do an onside kick. And then he comes out. They do like all of the pregame. stuff. They do another flyover. They just get like the F-16s on standby so that they can pull a banner that says onside kick incoming.

Pyrotechnics coming out of the uprights. Everything, man. I had an old co-worker, Evan Hilbert, him and his brother came with this idea that I really love. It's called the pole. It's called the pole. Teams can elect to bring out the pole and you get four points for a field goal, but you have

to hit the pole in the middle of the upright. So it has to be a perfect kick. And now when you say, I want to hit the pole, like you have this, the pomp and circumstance, like there's cheering, there's music going off, there's pyrotechnics. I like this idea, and I think this is the closest we've gotten to it. You're going too far. I mean, this would be an absolute, absolute boon for in stadium announcers, right? First of all, yeah.

Bring out the poll. It would be a lot of it. I'm not going too far. It's not my idea. I can't take credit for the idea. And shame on you. That's a brilliant idea. Can I like it?

I'm all for novel. Here's my only, my only issue. Four points is not, like one additional point is not enough for hitting what must be, that's fair. That's fair. You know, the poll must be at most like one one hundredth of the width of the uprights. I don't know if you know this, Nora, but you could change the width of poles. You can just decide. Humans are able to do that.

You know that, right? Excuse me. Excuse me for assuming that you meant a poll of similar wits. Obviously, imagination is going to be a problem. There are some parts of this podcast that I do not want clipped and misused out of context. That's a good point. Let's just move on. No, no, here's my other idea.

The kicker should have to announce that they are doing the onside kick over the loudspeaker. Oh, yeah. He gets the mic for a second. That's fine. Like the rest. When they're like, we're about to review a play, he goes, I'm about to do it onside kick. Watch this shit. When offensive lineman declare eligible.

George W. Bush clearly says, Now watch this drive. That's what I want them to do. All right. Any more kickoff thoughts? Any more potential rules changes? I mean, it's too late now, but that would have been one for the competition committee.

I'm still mad. Intentional grounding. Okay. Let's just do this. Stephen has intentional grounding thoughts. I really don't. I was joking. I was just working people up in the production meeting.

But intentional grounding is a dumb rule when you think about it. That's all I'm just going to leave it at that. You should be able to throw the ball wherever you want. You need to say what you actually think about this. And then Austin absolutely hates this idea. Okay. I think you should be able to throw the ball wherever you want. Because at any other sport, you can kick the ball wherever you want.

You can pass the ball wherever you want. You never get penalized for intent of where you're throwing the ball. Now, I think you should have to throw the ball past the line of scrimmage. And this gets me into my next take. No more throws behind the line of scrimmage at all. just none, no screens or anything. And yes, this is a Brock Purdy Coke take, if you were wondering. I do think that in the production call, you didn't say you still had to get it past the line of scrimmage for a while.

And I was like, you can't do that. People were just going to spike into the ground. Sacks will, like, drop off significantly. And the defense will just really suffer. But if you, I can get behind a stop caring if he was outside the pocket. And is there a receiver close enough to where you could say he was going for that receiver? I'm fine with just like intentional grounding is essentially just any throw that doesn't clear the line of scrimmage and there's no one there.

But I don't know. I think the intentional grounding rules are fine for where they are right now. I don't know. I'm disappointed that the rules committee continues to fade. We brought up the on-site kicks. Like the perfect solve for this now that we have these new kickoff rules is whatever the Eagles are proposing where you start on your own 25-yard line. It's like fourth and 15 or I think it's been proposed as fourth and 20.

And like you get you get that opportunity to keep the ball, right? And then so there's a handful of reasons I like that. One, the obvious one, it's going to have a higher percentage of success than the onside kick. Last year, I think it was like 3% of onsite kicks hit. Whereas going forward on third and 15 only worked 14% of the time. Like third and 14. So it's not like a play that you're going to be like, oh my God, we're just like cleaning up or we're always getting extra possessions. It's still not like significant.

If anything, that 15, 16% matches what onside kick recoveries were when players could run through. The reason why not to go back to the previous onside kick rule is why is the kicker and a bunch of scrubs deciding whether or not we keep the ball? Like it should be the offense who just scored who decides if we can keep the ball. It's like, okay, we just scored. Now it's fourth and 15 on our own 25 or fourth and 20, whatever we want to be. We who are the deciders of our fate, the most important players on the football team get to choose if we can keep the ball by obviously committing this first down or whatever. And it's just like continues to drive, right? It's not going to be like eight seconds left.

They go for an onside kick. and it's this fourth and 25 thing. They get it. They still have to drive down the length of the football field. So I don't know. I do really like that proposal, but I don't know if it's ever going to go through.

I really like it. I mean, I wonder if after a year, the other thing I love is that the Eagles just keep proposing it. Like they did this last year too. They just keep being like, ah, fourth and 20?

You guys ready yet? We like it. We want to do it. And then the league keeps being like, no, no, we're not doing this. But I do wonder if a year, a couple years into the new, kickoff style. Maybe it changes things.

I mean, an onside kick that you have to announce, unless they go Stevens route and lean into announcing it, is just like, first of all, as you said, pointless because the rate of conversion is just going to be so low, but also dumb. Like, that's just not fun.

Yes. Half the fun of an onside kick is listening to announcers be like, uh, on side kick here, Jim? Here's a rule. And just like living in that moment of suspense, but it just doesn't have. happen.

Band kickers. I'm done. I'm done. I love it. I'm done with kickers. Like, like start the kickoff rules out of one of those little jugs machines and it fires it down and you go down.

And then no field goals. You always have to go for two. If you want to go for one, it's on the one yard line or something. Like, I don't need these guys. I don't need them. I don't want them in the league.

I don't want them in the game. Wow. I agree. Just get rid of fourth down while we're at it. And first and second. Every play should be third and 10. I want, I want no kickers in any part of this game.

That is Stephen's. dream. It's just like a third and 10 scenario played out over and over and over again. No play action, no screen passes. You got to throw down. You got to read out the defense. You got to read out the coverage. The game too often hinges on the lowest paid players in the league. Justin Herbert 12-time MVP.

That's right. No, I agree with Austin. Like we shouldn't be promoting rules that make like bottom of the roster players. Like Brandon Bostic from the Packers, the guy that dropped the onside kick against the Seahawks when the Seahawks won the C-Row. He changed NFL history. Yeah, yeah.

Because he couldn't catch a football. Like, I agree. Get those guys off the field. That's, I mean, that doesn't even bring up all the kicker misses. I didn't expect to come on here with the two of you just arguing, arguing players out of their jobs. I mean. Go play a different sport.

Go play soccer. It's not. It's not. I know it's called football, but that's, that's, the naming issues is kickers are claiming to the naming problem for too long. That's a good point. The kickers are like, well, it's football. You can't move kickers.

Like, God damn it. We have to keep these guys in there. Like, I don't know. I'm fine with no punters, no kickers. You're not allowed to kick the football at any time. If you want to get three points, go score a touchdown. Screw you. Like I'm done with this whole like half-baked bullshit.

And honestly, I'd be willing to give up the name football. Very good name for a sport. If we got rid of kickers at the same time. Yeah, yeah. I'm not even against changing the name of the game, you know? Get us in the rules committee meeting. Let me cook here. The competition committee will not let either one of you cook.

I'm incredibly confident. All right. Let's talk about the swivel hip drop tackle, which I really was not expecting to not just be able to call the hip drop tackle, but this is why we can't have nice things. Stephen, I know you and Ben, this is another one of the rules changes

that was significant that came out of the meeting. Stephen, I know you and Ben talked about this on the Monday show as being something that's probably not ultimately as huge of a deal as some defenders are going to make, it out to be. But because you could certainly argue it's in play on just a lot of tackles that are currently made throughout the course of the game, it's going to put more subjectivity into officiating, which just ends up being kind of a drag. It ends up being something that

gets adjudicated in fines a lot of the time because the officials get guidance. on how tightly to call something to the letter of the law, but then when there's an egregious case, you get into these situations where people are arguing. No one would ever call that. They haven't been calling that, but if you actually read the rule book and something that should be called.

So, you know, I thought that was the right take is that this is fine, but we're just going to keep yelling about the refs because that's life, that's sports. But is there anything you wanted to add to that? No, I think this is, honestly, it's a good thing for the league. Like, we like to talk about how we're going to complain and no one's going to know what the rules are when these penalties get thrown or these flags get thrown. But the league likes that.

Like, we talk about it on podcast. When there's a questionable roughing the passer call, it's like any, all anybody talks about. And the league gets more attention. And that's all the league wants. You know, like everyone's going to complain about it. Like, that's a bad thing. Right. Exactly.

In this, like, in some senses, yes, you have a complaint because you think something didn't. go the appropriate way. Am I to understand that the implication of that is that people don't like complaining? That's not my experience. It's one of my favorite things to do.

I personally love to complain. And I really think the NFL takes to the idea that like no PR is bad PR. Like this is a league that set up a revenge game for the... I do think they did, yes. I mean on the field, like about the game and stuff. That's why they change the rule.

I don't mean like an Aaron Hernandez situation They're like this is great for us They're like we'll get to bad PR out of this Let's not just call it hip drop tackle It's called Swivel Hip Drops. They'll hate that We'll get at it. Sorry, when did Swivel get at

Like I just was not I was not ready for Swivel They realized how dumb the rule was When they were making the language And they had it and they were like All right we got to Because this is going to be like every tackle ever So we got to put in the swivel thing

We got to make it a little more specific Yeah I just think it's hard to say Swivel hip drop tackle Swivel hip drop tackle swivel But this is the last thing I'll say. This is a league that made a revenge game for Deshawn Watson upon his return from suspension. This league will go to any length. The PR point might be closer to true than you think.

The PR point is not a part of the swivel hip drop tackle. There's no way. They're changing it because they think it hurts players. Now, I think like they literally. No, they think we care about players getting hurt is what they want us to think. Sorry. Oh, okay, okay. If they would like to put an emphasis on player safety, what if we didn't play a game

every day of December? No, no. So that's different though. That makes sense with their money. This, this is like, this takes like star players out of the game. Like this like, like versus like playing every day, yes, ruins the players, but that makes more money. Taking the swivel, hip drop tackle out, even though it's going to be called. I listen to your take on, actually point taking you compared it to the when they said offense players couldn't lower their head. I don't know it's going to be like that. It's literally going to be like, does it look like one and did a player get hurt? That's literally, that's literally what's going to happen. As soon as it looks like one and a player's leg looks fucked, that's, they're going to call it. And that's, they're going to call it. And that. I think is not great. Not great. When you say they, you mean you think the officials? I think. I think refs are not going to call it. I only think you're going to see a lot of examples of the swivel,

hip-drop tackle being called and a player not-hanger. They're not going to know in, like, are they going to know in real time before they throw the flag if someone's knee got busted? I don't know if that's possible. I mean, a lot of the times when you've seen some of the examples, right, the Tony Pollard example, the Martin's example, the Tyler Boyd example.

essentially anytime Logan Wilson has tackled a player example right away player is slow to get up. It is a pretty quick thing. And like we've seen late penalties in this league, right? Where a quarterback gets hit

and he's not going up and they're like, all right, we're going to throw that. I think that that's how it's going to be called. I would be really, really shocked if a hip drop tackle happens, receiver or running back bounces up

and you see a penalty thrown. I would be shocked. I think it's legitimately going to be. Then if you are an offensive player, what should you do but learn to just like sell it. I know.

I know. I think that's going to be a part of it. Yeah, I think that could be a part of it. It looks like you're dead. It's going to turn into like a yellow card situation in soccer. The soccer players have to simulate to get the yellow card if they don't. If they just get up, the card doesn't get shown.

So if you are an offensive player and you feel a hip drop tackle, I think you should definitely nurse it. I mean, call me crazy. I definitely think. No, I'm so in on this. I think this is 100% right. That's exactly how this play. Now, is that a good thing?

Is it a bad thing? Whatever the league is trying to at face value, like protect players, you see it's a tackle that gets people hurt. But how it will actually affect the game, hip-drop tackle happens, player looks hurt, flags coming out. I guarantee it. I think that's exactly how it's going to be called. And like, that's going to kind of suck. But also, it's going to over years, I think, coach that kind of tackle at least somewhat out of the game.

But I don't know. I mean, you hear defensive players that play in the NFL. I can't speak to it. Like, they say it's really hard not to do it. So I don't know. I think it's going to be interesting. I think it could be very similar to the head-to-head stuff, right? Where there's a lot of like, what do you want me to do?

Like, what can I do? Let him catch the ball. Like, that I think is going to be a lot of this conversation too. And with the head-to-head stuff as well, what do you think happens? As soon as a player gets blasted and he's down for a little bit, that family is coming out every single time. That's like legitimately how the play works. I feel like the funniest part of all this is that the Mark Andrewsackle

tackle has been like the poster child played for this rule. and then in the language for the rule, they mentioned the Mark Andrews tackle would not have been flagged. Did they really? Yes. They pointed that out, that would not be a penalty under the new rule.

So no one who knows what this is going to look like. Any interest in getting into the Twitter fodder about how rugby banned the hip-drop tackle already and it's working fine. I saw Sam Monson from PFF, who's an Irish guy who likes rugby. And I think obviously the game in rugby is a lot different and that when you go down, it's not over

and you can push the ball back. So there's less there's less necessity to like drive your feet through a hip like a hip level tackle. So there's pieces there, but I don't know. I feel like the rugby piece of it didn't really make the ton of sense. No, it's like you are trying to sport. Yeah, it's like I don't, I don't see the rugby comparison

necessarily. I think this is going to suck. I think players are still going to get hurt. They're going to get penalized four or two and it's going to be very similar to the head to head stuff. I feel like Sam Munson's point was that like NFL players are bad at tackling, which I don't think is true. Because otherwise, like, that rugby player that played for the 49ers, but it came here and just dominated.

He would have just broken every tackle. And he didn't break any tackles, actually. He got cut or I don't even know what happened to him. Actually, I do know what happened to a rugby. Now you're flaming rugby. Well, I'm flaming this guy, who deserves to be flamed if you look up what happened after he left the NFL. But, yeah, it's a totally different sport.

And I just think it requires different things and there's different strategies for bringing guys down. So I don't really see any connection there. I also think what doesn't get brought up in this is, and I mean, look, I have some, it's good to try to make the game safer. I think to an extent, sometimes these rules changes get past and you hear Roger Goodell talking about the injury rate was 20% higher on this type of play. So we have to take it out of the game. We're really invested in player safety. And again, like, I find it hard to truly, truly get super worked up about anything that even if it has a 2% effect on making what's a really dangerous game a little bit safer, like that's a worthy pursuit.

Here's the thing. What doesn't get brought up in this is that the playing surfaces have a huge impact on the injury rates on these plays. because the issue with the types of hip drop tackles, swivel hip drop tackles that result in these injuries, what's bad about it is that you have someone's foot planted and unable to release from the whatever the playing surface is and then you get someone's weight coming down on their hip, leg, knee, and because the foot can't release

and the ligaments can't stay in a configuration that's that they're built to withstand, then you get all of these horrible injuries. It's like, it's the same reason that, you know, like I like to ski and there are a ton of knee injuries and skiing because your foot is locked into a stationary object and if you fall in the wrong way, like it can't release. So I'm all for an emphasis on safety,

but that combined with the unwillingness to be proactive about playing surfaces, just like makes that a little bit hollow because that's a lot of what we're talking about here. It's can your cleat? It's actually not necessarily about how the guy falls on you. It's can your cleat get out of the turf? Absolutely. No, I think that's a really good point. I think I've heard some other people bring that up.

And I think for as long as they continue to go to not replace all the turf fields with grass, they are not that serious. And I feel the same way, and I think this is a hot take, I feel the same way about the protective caps on the helmets during training camp. It's like, oh, we've noticed that when we put these on, we don't get hurt as much in terms of head injuries. But why don't we play it during the games? We don't think it looks cool. It's like that is a problem.

Like, that's a problem. Like, it's like this. And it's not necessarily a reason not to do it, right? Like if something makes a 1% difference, they should do it. But it's just like also the fact that this is now a penalty probably has a positive impact on scoring. For sure. which is also what they love. So like, you know,

you understand the different impulses that work. It's a good point on the turf. I think they should get rid of the turf and replace with grass. And I feel very similarly, and I know this, we're not there yet with this, but I do think if those helmet caps

are preventing head injuries, but we're not wearing them during the games because we like the look of the helmets. Right. And like, what are we doing here? I mean, it's like concussions are like the biggest injury

we're trying to avoid in the NFL, like by a mile. And if there's something that helps prevent them. I'm like, I don't know. Yeah, that's what I'm saying. Yeah, but the helmets are shiny, Austin. I know, I know, I know, I know. I'm ruining the leak.

I'm ruining the leak. I'm ruining the leak. I can't watch if the helmets aren't shiny. Man. Can you imagine though if they introduced those and like concussions went like significantly significantly down? I mean, that would be huge. But anyway, they would look stupid.

So. All right. This is going to be an interesting transition. But here's another takeaway. Uh, Jerry Jones, accomplished doodler. Did you guys see the photo of actually I won't I won't do a podcaster pretend thing. I know you did because we talked about it. The photo of Jerry Jones scribbling lines on a notebook while he was interviewing with several members of Cowboys Media and people were at the owner's meetings.

Yeah, I saw it and I like I don't see any problem with it. That is the man that is the mind of a man who is bored with whatever is happening right. now. And if I was getting badgered by Cowboys Beat reporters with questions about like Dak Prescott's contract, I'd be doodling too. I saw some comments claiming it was handwriting and I think that's slander. I think that's very much slander. He's not writing anything. Okay, he is just doodling. It's a passive doodle for an active mind.

Yeah, it's a passive duttle for an active mind. I think a bigger red flag if that paper's blank. If he's got a pen in his hand, that paper's blank, that means he's, I mean, I don't know if I like that one. I think it's passively doodling there's still fire up there. A passive doodle for an active mind. That's what I'm saying. I have a question for you, though.

What if this was just, what if it was a cover? Like he had a blank notebook and he was like, oh shit, I got to have something on here. Oh, maybe. I'm a little worried. I guess I did, we never got video of the process, right, of how the doodles came to be. We need to watch the TV.

Could have been previous week doodles too. Maybe he just opened it up to his last doodle page. And that, that I think, would be a little worrisome as well. these were pre-made doodles from a previous interview and they never added to them, that I think would be a concern. I don't know. I don't want to dive in too much. Maybe it was like a new kickoff return idea and he didn't want the rest of the world.

No, that was it. I think it was a swivel hip drop tackle. I think he drew a full swivel hip drop tackle in the shape of the carcosa spiral. You might see a kickoff. You might see a swivel hip drop tackle. You might see. I saw Logan Wilson in there. It was a portrait of Logan Wilson.

All right. Fourth takeaway, speaking of Jerry Jones, speaking the Cowboys, really seems like Dak Prescott is a year away from hitting free agency. He's got the no tag clause in his contract. And Jerry Jones was asked about if they were trying to come to an extension agreement or working on something with the contract with Jack. And he just said, we're locked and loaded for this year. We're happy with where we are. which seem to indicate that they're just not really even trying. Which, look, if you're DAC and you're going to be able to hit the open market, get probably at a minimum something that's between $55 and $60 million a year in annual value, you'd certainly want to take that opportunity.

But it is coming off a year when, you know, his cap hit to the Cowboys is going to be massive. it's interesting to see them setting up to just like either pay him like, pay him a top of the market deal or potentially let him walk. And, you know, they get a good comp pick back in return, but not get anything else for a starting quarterback of Doc Prescott's ability. I mean, Austin, from Dak's perspective, this makes sense to me. But from the Cowboys perspective, does this make you nervous? I think that Cowboys had to know this was coming, right? When he signed this contract and there was like a no trade clause and a no tag clause, I was like, oh, so he's going to have all the leverage in the world going into his final year of the contract.

And when you saw Jerry Jones, I think Jerry Jones had a quote. This was from Ian Rappaport saying we are where we are locked and loaded for this year. And I think Jerry Jones is looking at McCarthy and Dax saying, like, you guys want a playoff game this year. I'll try and make you got. I'll pay whatever it takes to like. like maybe bring this back or maybe win two playoff games. I don't know what his standard is or what his expectation is. I think it is a high bar though.

I think he has high expectations for this Cowboys team with what they have. I think if the Dallas Cowboys don't win a playoff game or help don't make the playoffs, I think he's going to say, you know what? We are moving on from Dak Prescott and DAC is going to be eager to test free agency and make like a Kirk deal, but like 1.5X of a Kirk deal, right? So you think that like Jerry and the Cowboys are looking at looking at this as like, we're not doing an extension right now because you haven't earned it. My sense is that they just couldn't get anything done

because if you're DAC, you see, you see the ratings on the wall for you to go have the ultimate free agency opportunity, which is hitting it as a starting quarterback of, you know, some accomplishment, and then you just, you completely reset the market and make whatever you want. So I don't know why he would do anything.

Yeah, that makes me. I definitely think that McCarthy is in a situation where he's going into the last year of his, contract and where Jerry is like, you have to prove it. But maybe you're right. Maybe they're saying that to DAC as well. I think that would be a little like- I don't think they're saying that to DAC though.

I think DAC is asking for what? Three years, 200-0, maybe three years, 210, fully guaranteed, no trade clause, no tag clause. I want not just to be like the second or third highest-paid quarterback in the league behind like, well, over Mahomes, AAB is, or Josh Allen. I also want it fully guaranteed and I want it for three more years. I think Jerry Jones, who is,

I think 81 years old is like okay do do I do that I can give him that contract even though we've never gotten to where I want to get as a Dallas Cowboys owner like never gotten to where I want to be with him I could do that for another three years maybe that makes sense maybe there's people in my house

in my in my purview that's saying yeah you should no matter what Dax good Dax good top eight top six quarterback in the league you should pay him whatever he wants but he's probably also sitting there saying like or I don't and I try and make another run here, like, with someone else. And, like, I don't know. I think they're, he's not saying that outwardly.

He's not telling Dak. He's like, yeah, I don't know. Earn it this year, bud. He's like, we're going to like work for a deal. But I'm also not opposed if like I have to turn down a 65 million per year type of fully guaranteed deal to DAC. If like, I go look for another guy. I don't know. I don't think it's like, I think they can't get it done because there is a number they're

unwilling to do. And that, that, and DAC has all the leverage, obviously, to be able to position this and say, like, dude, if I go in the open market, I'm getting Kurt Cucson. Doesn't steal, probably like 1.5, 1.6x, fully guaranteed, wherever I want. My whole life is set. I'm not signing shit with you unless it's something like that. I think it's completely kind of fair for Jerry Jones, who's been with Dak all of this time, to be like, okay, I don't know if we want to do that.

I don't know if we want to do another three years with Jack Prescott, with what we've accomplished. Now, is that good process? Is Jerry Jones saying, we haven't done a lot with him? Maybe I move on from him. Is that good process? You could argue that. Probably not, right?

I think it's, is he a good player, or is he not? But I don't know. I think that it'll be interesting to see what happens. I do think DAC has all the leverage, and that's why a lot of this stuff is coming out and that, like, he could test free agency. I mean, I would say, like, them not getting a deal done early is the reason why they're in the spot in first place. Because, like, the last time we had this negotiation, it took a long time. Like, Dak was, it took, like, over a year for Dak to get his deal. And then when he finally had a breakout year and then he got paid and he got paid a bunch of money, more money than he would have made if he would have signed the deal early.

And now, like, if Dapp signed an extension to Austin's point, if he signed an extension this, or to Norris point, if he signed an extension this offseason, I would consider him like a loser in that situation because he's not 100% taking advantage of the leverage that he's built and the leverage that the Cowboys have given him. But I agree with Austin that it's not like a, oh, do we want to pay you or not? It's like how long do we want to pay you?

And how do we want to pay you? The structure of the deal is like the point of contention. But if I'm other teams, and it does look like Dak will get to free agency, which I don't think he will. I think the Cowboys will come to their senses. Like, this guy's coming off a season where he arguably was the MVP. And the only reason he didn't win MVP was because of one bad game on national television against the Cowboys or against the Bills.

Every other game, like that was MVP-worthy production from him. So I think he ends up getting signed. But if he doesn't, he does make free agency, like if I'm every QB needy team in the league who doesn't have the top two picks in this year's draft, I'm positioning myself to be able to sign Dak Prescott because I think he's a franchise level changing player. Right. He will sign a stupid contract if he hits free and C. I think he'll sign a stupid contract no matter what,

but it'll be, like, ridiculous if he hits free agency. Say you're the, say Dallas comes in before he gets to that point, and it's three years fully guaranteed $195 million. So it's 65 per year. Who, who wins? in that scenario. DAC, one. Real quick, just DAC.

Sure, right. With the money. But I do think that Dallas, in that case, it's not about the money, right? It's brought the percentage of the cap. It's a high percentage of the cap, but you're spending a high percentage of the cap on a fringe top six quarterback in the league.

And I think that I'm higher on DAC than I think a lot of the media is. I think Stephen is higher on DAC than a lot of the media is. Sorry, I'm tangent for a second. We got to find a new way to do fringe top six, top ten quarterback. Because you know what people mean when they say top ten quarterback? They mean the tenth best quarterback in the league. No one says

Patrick Malhoms is a top ten quarterback. You're getting the floor. Fringe top six means six. It means you think he's six. He could be fifth or seven. I think that when I say fringe top six, I'm like, I think he can play I'm going to say this. I'll reframe.

I'm going to say he's the sixth best quarterback at his floor, but I think he can be the fifth best and the fourth best and be like in that tier of like top and depending on where we go obviously who's healthy and all that stuff. I think he is a fringe top four quarterback.

He's a French top four. He's a French top four. He is a quarterback in my opinion. I'm very confident given how he plays the game. I also think Jack Prescott is a quarterback. I think he can win a Super Bowl. I think Dak Prescott can win a Super Bowl. I don't think a lot of people agree.

Whatever. I agree with that. I agree with that. If you go three-year, fully guaranteed $65 million per, what are you getting? You're getting a Super Bowl capable quarterback, in my opinion. Now, do the Cowboys think that? Does Jerry Jones, who looks at all the postseason success that they've had or lack thereof, say he can win a Super Bowl with Jack Prescott?

That, I think is the question. I don't know if Jerry Jones thinks that. I don't. I honestly don't. He says it in public. I will say that. He does say it. I don't know.

That doesn't mean he thinks it, but he does say it. a passive statement for an active mind. That's right. That's what he's doodling on his sheet. Yeah, that was the contract details. It was a lot. It was a lot of zeros, a lot of spiral zeros. It's just lines.

All right. I got a fifth takeaway. It's my last takeaway, but let's take a break first because our second segment, we're going to do a draft ceiling, floor game with the quarterbacks. And I think the fifth takeaway

actually will lead into that pretty, pretty nicely. So we will be right back. All right. Welcome back to dual threat. I said that the fifth takeaway from league meetings was going to lead nicely into our little draft quarterback game here. And the takeaway is that the hype about J.J. McCarthy, man. Like, it is in overdrive. So first of all, we had some new reporting from Tom Pellasaro at NFL network that executives around the league at owners meetings were saying that they think the commanders are going to take McCarthy at number two overall. This did, to my understanding,

move some of the betting odds, at least a little bit about where McCarthy was likely to go. Austin, I'm sure you can fill us in on the specifics of that. Second of all, though, I mean, the quotes coming out of this place. Just heeping love on this on this quarterback. So Jim Harbaugh, who has a few reasons to be on the McCarthy hype train, one being that he coached him in college and the other being that the Chargers have the fifth pick, which could end up being pretty lucrative if that becomes something that someone feels they need to trade up to to get the quarterback of their choice, which basically

on most draft mocks could be a McCarthy spot. But Jim Harba is just going for it. He said that I think he being McCarthy plays quarterback, the best of any quarterback in the draft. Some of the quotes were really funny to me because he started describing his pro day, and he was like, there's never been a pro day like this. No one's ever had such a good pro day.

But then he just started describing normal activities that take place in the process of quarterback. backing. Getting his feet set. Just getting his feet set. And then the throws, making the throws. It's like, okay. Yeah, that sounds like what you would have to do to go through a pro day. But he was really selling it. And then the other thing Harbaugh said was that people were just coming up to him left and right, unsolicited, being like, what a great job you did with that young man. What an impressive player. So it was really out of control. I mean, Antonio Pierce is talking about, you know, he's a national champion.

It has to be, like, how can that be not a top three quarterback in this draft? The Broncos have been linked to McCarthy, certainly and Sean Payton was saying openly that he felt like it was realistic. They would trade up with the Cardinals at number four. The Raiders, also the Giants, indicating real openness to trade.

up to get a quarterback high in the draft. And right now, the quarterback who seems to be linked just to everyone and everywhere is is J.J. McCarthy. First of all, Austin, I mean, I'll go to you first since your Raiders are one of the teams that is contributing to this. How we feel in about the McCarthy hype train? I mean, it's horrid. I think a lot of it is a, I think a lot of it is, um,

I want to say smoke. I want to say smoke, right? Hyping up a guy this much at this stage has to be smoke. And Jim Harbaugh's, now here's the difference though. Jim Harbaugh's comments are, you can say anything you want about that man. He is loyal. He is, he bleeds blue. Okay.

And he could have, it could have been a seventh round pick throwing the ball that day. He's like, honestly, best thing I've ever seen. Best quarterback in the trap. I respect, I respect that kind of commitment to the grind. And honestly, it's like your boy. at the bar, who's the ultimate wingman. It doesn't matter. You just spill a full old-fashioned on your chest.

And he's like, honestly, still the coolest guy I know. That is Jim Harbaugh hyping up JJ McCarthy. So that I can get behind. Antonio Pierce being like national champions. Of course he's top three. It's scary because I think he means it. Because he's also the guy who's like, Gardner Mitch, you beat us.

Got to love that. And then they signed him. And then they're also like, Luke gets he beat us with some random quarterback. I like that. Just like just such small sample size, black and white opinions of like... You had one game against them.

He's in one game, you're in. J.J. McCarthy won a national championship. Of course he's top three. Luke gets he beat us with some random backup. Of course we're going to bring him in. Like, just these small sample sizes, like all the stuff that just like blows my mind in terms of how Antonio Pierce is like evaluating talent

and looking all this different stuff. That I think is a little scary. I think it could be smoke, but also I think you could believe it. In terms of like the betting odds that changed, J.J. McCarthy was like, no chance to go to type odds. I think he's like plus 2,000 in some spots.

Now he's plus 400. Third behind Jane Daniels, who's the favorite, and then Drake May is the second favorite. To go the number two overall pick with the Washington commanders. That's now his ceiling because of the smoke screen. If the Washington commanders do that, I will throw the team away. I'll find a way to package the team into a small

little paper ball and I'll throw it in the trash. Because that would be, in my opinion. Well, they do that every Sunday. It's just called FedEx Field. Such a bad evaluation of the quarterback talent in this class. Now, unless they know something I don't know, right? I do not see J.J. McCarthy as a better quarterback prospect than Jaden Daniels or Drake May. And the fact that I have to say that and it can't be like, it's not like mutually understood or as a consensus.

It's just crazy. I don't know. Am I wrong here? Is this going to be clipped into eternity and J.J. McCarthy's going to be like the future of the league? I just don't see him as a better prospect to Jaden Daniels and Drake May. I also feel that J.J. McCarthy of those top four quarterbacks would benefit the most from sitting here. I don't think you want to bring number two overall expectations to this kid. I don't think he's ready.

I don't think he's ready. I think he is a guy that you'd want to go to a team that the Raiders at 13, you start to say it's okay because maybe he sits behind Gardner-Menschu and is not immediately thrown into it and it's not like this hyped up

number two overall selection thing and those expectations come bearing down on him. I don't know. I think he could be. There's a range of outcomes, where Jay J.J. McCarthy becomes a good player, right? I think he's already a very talented players in some aspects. I don't think he's a better prospect than the two other guys that are projected to go ahead of him, according to Vandal right now.

And I also don't think he's a player that's going to benefit from going to the Washington commanders or even the New England Patriots there at three, given the situation that they're in and that the hype and the expectations that come with being a number two, number three overall pick. I don't know. Do I have the wrong read on this? Go ahead. The Patriots is sort of the first one where I think arguably the pick doesn't have to start all that soon. Now, I say that with a grain of salt because just top five draft picks,

they play. Like, they play when they're rookies. They eventually play. But the fact that they did go and get Brissette in there, I think, indicates that they want to have a plan either if it doesn't make sense for them to take a quarterback. If they get an offer, they can't refuse to trade down, something like that. there's a little bit more of a path to not having to start super quickly there

than I think at one or two, obviously. And then you get into situations like, yeah, later on to someone like the Raiders who have a viable bridge quarterback backup type who could start you a bunch of games. That's obviously, that's obviously preferable. I think New England is where that conversation,

whoever goes to the, I mean, Caleb to Chicago, he's going to play. I think whoever goes to Washington is going to play pretty much right away. New England is where that starts to maybe change, but I don't want to overstate that because someone getting drafted that high, they're going to play as rookie, like almost definitely. It's just unless it's a Patrick Mahom's situation, right? Like, it's just so rare. Steven, I mean, do you want to pick up?

where Austin left off in terms of just like how reasonable is it in terms of who they are as quarterbacks, their talent on the field that we're now mixing in JJ McCarthy with the top three in this draft? That's the thing I can't get over.

Austin's worried about being clipped into eternity if JJ McCarthy becomes like the face of the league. But like you watch the film and that's not what the face of the league looks like. That's not the quarterbacks that are dominant in the NFL look like. I haven't heard. anyone point to an elite trait that wasn't

something intangible, something like off the field or like character based about him. Like what is the thing that's getting him drafted in the first round? It's not size, obviously. It's not arm talent. He doesn't have a bad arm. I think he has a good arm. I don't think he has a great arm. Accuracy, fine.

It's fine. I don't think it's like special. I guess you could throw in the move, but this is like, this is a second round prospect. That's what a second round prospect is. A player that you think could be good that can play football, obviously. If you watch Michigan games, Like, he could play football. He's not a transcendent talent.

And if I'm drafting a quarterback in the first round, even if it's like mid-round and I'm taking up, like Austin said, at 13, you can kind of talk yourself into getting like a decent quarterback, a good rookie contract quarterback there. But then you're drafting a problem in five years. That becomes a real problem that can set your franchise back like five years if you give the wrong guy the wrong deal. So I tend to think this is smoke.

And I think the fact that head coaches are coming out in naming this, guy. Antonio Pierce, if he really loved J.J. McCarthy, I don't think he would be talking about J.J. McCarthy in public like he's talking about him. I think what that is, is if J.J. McCarthy's still on the board and a QB needy team wants to trade up, the Raiders are open for business. We got to jump the Raiders because they want J.J. McCarthy. So I think it makes sense for those teams from picks 11 to 13 to be talking this guy up, the Broncos, the Vikings, the Raiders, the teams that have been linked with him because it opens up a trade market for him. And they can

trade down and get more picks. If you're taking the fourth quarterback, the fourth best quarterback in this draft, I think you're one of the losers in this draft. Sure. All right. So let's play our game. We're going to go through the top six quarterbacks in this draft and say where we think the floor is for where they would get drafted and also where the ceiling is. And so I think the first one is pretty easy. I had Caleb Williams. floor first overall, ceiling first overall. Anybody have anything different? No. No, and that's what the betting odds say there as well.

If you bet Caleb Williams to be the number one overall pick, say you spend $100, you get $1.25 back. So you're not, you're, there's a, it's, to put it in very plain terms, he's going number one overall. Great. That's a $3. $3.25. It's a free $1.25. It's a free $1.25.

Hey, you heard of here first, folks. You bet, you bet, you bet $10,000. start to do that math. This is some irresponsible advice for getting out. If you bet $10,000, though, do you just get $10,000 and $1.25? No, it's like multiplied. I can't do the math. It's like what?

You would get like $100. Caleb Williams, number one overall with $100 bet, gets you $1.25. Caleb Williams, number two overall with $100 bet, gets you $4,000. So if you want to know where the league thinks he's going, it's number one overall. Brian Poles wants to make some money. Dot, dot, dot, dot. Easy show, hey, Otani. All right.

So this is where it starts to get interesting. Steven, where did you put the floor and ceiling for Jaden Daniels? Jaden Daniels was my hardest one. Because obviously, I think the ceiling is too. I don't think he's going to end up going to. But the floor is the interesting one to me. Because I could see this being a situation where he drops and teams just don't take him

and he plummets to the bottom of the first round just because of how he plays and how skinny he is. Like, I think that's a thing that teams could be worried about. He could not be on the board of some teams, is all I'm saying. I think there are teams that really do like them.

I think Washington is one of them. But I could see him dropping down to 13. Yeah. Yeah. That's why I have the floor. I have the floor at 13. The Raiders are not passing him up. Obviously, Antonio Pearson and Jane Daniels

were together there at Arizona State before Daniels. He saw him win so many games. Yeah, yeah, he saw him win so many games. he was in the locker room with him. It's all you need. It's all you really need for the evaluation process there in Las Vegas. So I do think it's floor is 13.

But I think he goes higher than that. I do think that there is enough smoke, enough consistent smoke. When we were at the combine, I mean, everyone was talking up Daniels. You mentioned the owner's meetings. A lot of people talking up J.J. McCarthy at the combine, Daniels was getting a lot of, a lot of people really like Daniels at the combine, at least in the people that I was talking to. I think that he could go number two.

I think he could go three. and if he does not go three. Can I just say that Jaden Daniels winning the Combine and J.J. McCarthy winning owners' meetings is so classic because if those are the top four quarterbacks in the draft, those are the two quarterbacks whose tape is the least competitive, like,

leaves you with the most questions about how they can perform in the NFL. And therefore, the other, and now obviously, like, no one needs to talk up Caleb Williams. Caleb Williams is going number one overall. But the two quarterbacks in this draft, who, at least, you know, my opinion, but like I think have the best chance of being long-term franchise starters for teams are the two quarterbacks who just haven't

gotten one of these hype cycles. And it's just like, what are we doing here, guys? Like, just watch the tape. I know Jaden Daniels didn't test at the combine, but like the really fast guy, the guy whose best trade is that he's fast, being the winner of the combine makes sense. And the guy whose best trade is that he has like a firm handshake, I guess, winning the owner's meeting makes a lot of sense too. Jane Daniels didn't test at the combine. He's not testing at his pro.

day today. He is going to throw today. He also weighed in 6 foot 3, 2.10. Obviously not running with that weight, because that is a lot of water. That guy bulked up heavy. It's similar to the J.J. McCarthy fulking up to 219.

Those guys threw on some weight, because they play a lot thinner. They look a lot thinner on tape. If Daniels gets to 13, and I do think, like, he's one where the floor feels a little bit lower just because I agree with Stephen.

Like he's a divisive prospect. There's probably some teams that he could even be at the top of their board. Like they might, you know, whether it's a quarterback team or not, just be really compelled by the traits, right? But he's also someone particularly because of the style and because of the size, especially, where there might be teams that are just not interested. in drafting him. Like, for instance, you know, I still wonder what the Patriots think of him and what's going to happen if he ends up being, you know, if Williams and May go one, two.

I just, I think if Drake May is there at three, I think that's an easy decision for New England. I just think that, like, someone who has prototypical size, plenty of natural talent, has performed at a high level. I just, I think they're just taking that guy, even if, I think there's some impulse in that building right now to be like, oh, we've got a long road to go to being a viable team, like collecting a bunch of draft picks and trying to build out this roster would be

a good idea. But if Drake May is there at three, I just don't think they're really going to be able to do anything other than take him. And I don't think that that's a bad outcome. No. If it's Daniels, I think it's totally different. I just I think

the questions are, even if his ceiling as a player is really high. The questions about the size and frame viability and whether or not his running is going to translate to the NFL level because of that, some teams are going to be turned away by

that, which is why you get someone who could end up going ahead of Drake May, but I think has a lower floor just because there are going to be more teams that just don't quite see the vision. I mean, for him to get to 13, and I think because of the connection with

Pierce, that is the absolute floor. That means that the the Vikings, the Broncos, the giants. We don't know the Jets in there? Because I feel like the jets has the opportunity to do the funniest thing ever. Can you imagine? It would be incredible. There's no chance.

No, there's no chance. It would be funny, but there's no chance. They should, but there's no chance. Are we getting into, Drake May's ceiling floor next. Yeah. Go ahead and take us there if you want to. I was going, do we feel confident that those quarterback needy teams who Daniels would have to get past to get to the Vikings?

Could do that. I think that... Sorry, when I said Vikings, I meant Raiders. For Daniels, I think the floor is 13. Maybe teams don't want to trade up and there's a device of peace to it. But I also think there's a chance that if he's there at three, New England's taking phone calls. He's still there at four. Arizona's taking phone calls.

There are five chargers are taking phone calls. I do think that that's why the Vikings added this additional first round pick, right? Like they're going to be there sitting, waiting in the wings, beef in the night style. And if they see their guy falling, they're going to go jump up and get him. For Drake May, to me, and this maybe is ridiculous, and the league may view this differently. I feel like his ceiling is two and his floor is three. I would be shocked if he gets past three. I'd be shocked if he gets past three.

I'll do you one better. My ceiling, my floor was two. Oh, really? He's going to. I don't care what anyone says for the next month or whatever. He's going to, and if he doesn't go for two, I was about to say the Brock Ferdie thing again and be like, I'm not covering the league anymore.

But if he doesn't, I'm not doing the podcast for two weeks. I think that I like the idea of his floor being too. I think his real as ceiling two. Hold on, hold on, hold on. If his floor is two, make the case for me that you are positive of the Washington commanders or drafting Drake May. I think the fact that there's so much smoke around these other quarterback prospects, and we haven't really heard a lot of opinions, whether like positive or negative,

about Drake May or Caleb Williams is like kind of proof that these two are locked into being the top two, and that all this other talk about, like there's a new, hyped up quarterback prospect. I'm sure Bo Nix will have his time in the sun in like a couple weeks. I just think it's just like we've seen this before. We see it every draft. Like Mac Jones was supposed to go third overall. I ended up going, what, like 15th? I just, I don't know.

I think we would have known. Yeah, but Matt Jones might have gone third overall if Kyle Shannon hadn't gotten talked out of it. I'm not buying that, but I also think like when I think he would have been locked in at number two, Jaden Daniels, in December. I think we would have been like, oh, yeah, he's the number two pick. Like with Zach Wilson, that was the case. With Joe Burrow, it was like clear even though he was a late riser that he was the number one

pick and everyone else got pushed down. We didn't get that with Jaden Daniels. No one at the Heisman ceremony was like, oh, this guy's got a chance to go number one overall. It didn't happen until like late January, early February combine territory. And I think that's proof that Drake May's spot is solidified. Austin? I am not there yet just because betting odds don't say that. I'm not going to just say his floor is too. I think there is a chance he drops the three in Washington. What? You're betting on Washington making the right decision? I don't know. Like that's a bold calling of itself. I think that there's a chance.

they pass on him. There's a chance they go for JJ McCarthy there too. Obviously, there's a chance they go for Jay and Daniels there too. And maybe they are hyping them up and maybe it's all smoking. They've been locked in their Drake May this entire time.

I can't confidently say which is which. What I do think is true is that if he gets past two, the Patriots are taking number three. That I feel very, very, very confident. I would be... Now, why I think Jaden Daniels has been hyped

and I said this on this podcast, I want to say like a month ago, is that if Jaden Daniels gets to three, I think the Patriots want to receive calls. They want a call from Antonio Pierce. They want a call from the Minnesota Vikings. They want, in my opinion, calls, given how they've approached free agency. I really do think they're looking for value here in the draft,

and they want to come down and really build up this roster before they commit and swing big on a quarterback, which I think is the right play. The Patriots are still going to be evaluating a first-year head coach, new, obviously, new philosophy, new GM, new all the stuff. I don't know if they're ready to just like, is Wolf and Mayo ready to take their first swing, with their first bite of the apple, I think they need to calm down here. You're replacing a dynasty.

You're replacing the history of the league in a lot of ways. You don't need to be like, okay, you know how we're going to start Wolf and Mayo? We're going to start with the QB3 in this class. That sounds good. I'll take the third best quarterback in this class, not third best, but third picked quarterback in this class. No, trade down, get out of there, accumulate picks. And I know next year's draft class is bad,

but maybe they're a DAC team. I think that this whole, like, go ahead. But first of all, what are you replacing when you're replacing that dynasty? It's a dynasty that's defined. I mean, maybe Bill Belichick would quibble with this, but like primarily by its quarterback, right? So I think the pressure, the historical pressure to solve the QB question after what happened with Max Jones is huge.

Second of all, I think they're open to, I think, I think in a lot of ways they would love to trade down. But I think they feel like they need to be, like what they would love, I think more than anything else would be to be blown away by an offer. Right? Get some huge hall

where you can say to Robert Kraft to the fans, to the rest of the locker room to everybody, we had no choice. Oh my, how could you turn it down? It was too good to refuse. Maybe that comes,

but maybe it doesn't. And then you're in a situation where you look at, look at what they've done so far this off season. And it hasn't been, I don't think it's been particularly successful. I think, you know, we heard Elliot Wolf at the Combine talk about weaponizing the offense.

And at this point, you're sitting around going like, what exactly has changed? They tried to get Calvin Ridley, um, who didn't come apparently because according to Robert Kraft, his girlfriend didn't want to live in the cold, which seems like to me,

it probably had a little bit more to do with, not knowing who was playing, quarterback, although, I mean, I don't know, Titans aren't particularly compelling by that standard. I just thought it was interesting that we blamed the girlfriend. But you're looking at, I mean, they've tried to, they extended on WENU, they've done a little bit of work on the offensive line, and they seem like they are trying, if not succeeding, at creating a better context to bring a quarterback into the fold. So I just, I still think that they're going to end up doing it because I think if they, and obviously it depends on who's available at three, but I think what they are hoping for is that they're going to get blown away by a trade offer.

And I'm just not sure that that's happening. And if that doesn't come, then I think they're going to have to do it. Here's what I'll add about the paths. Right now, you're right in that they haven't approached for NCN like gone crazy. Right. They're, they've brought back, or they, they, they brought in Jacoby, percent, everything else, they've kind of lessen players go, transition tech, Kyle Dugger. Next year, 2025, they have only $99 million spent or on contracts in 2025.

They have over like $300,400,000 million projected caps base for next year. That's a lot of Hunter Henrys. By a country mile, they have the most caps base of any team in the league for 2025, when a lot of this stuff comes off the books. for me, I think that's what you look at this as year zero. Establish a new culture, establish new process, establish whatever. See, and like, unless you like love a guy, right? Like if they love Drake May and Drake May and Drake May and I think they take Drake May.

But you don't have to force Jane Daniels if you don't like Jay Daniels. Don't take a trade down and move around. That's, I think Williams and Drake May are worthy number one, number all two picks. Like, I think they're both like that kind of quarterback prospect. I think Jane Daniels, I'm not necessarily there. And I'm not there obviously with Jay J.J. McCarthy. I wonder where the league is. The league obviously

can have different opinions. But if I'm on the paths, Williams goes, May goes, I'm sitting there saying, let's treat this as year zero, let's not force it here at QB, not take this swing yet, and we go down. And maybe you take Bo Nix at the top of the second or Michael Pennett. If you want to get flirty with it, try someone else. Who makes

the trade? I think Minnesota's going to be in play. I think Minnesota's going to be in play. I think Minnesota's going to be in play. That's why they added the first round pick. I think that's going to be in play. If it's Jane Daniels, Antonio Pierce is on the phone. Tom Tolescoeiscoe has gone so aggressive already. Wilkins to a monster contract. They're like, they're not,

they're like doubling down on like trying to be competitive, right? They're really trying to be competitive. That to me, I feel like like screams make an aggressive play. Screams trying to go get up and go grab a quarterback. I think that Denver is not going to the team that's trading up. I think that they're still in a cap hell and like probably want to wait and see kind of situation. But I think Minnesota or Las Vegas is going to be looking to come up.

The way Antonio Pierce is talking this off season, there's no way he goes in a week one with Aidan O'Connell as is. I know. Yeah, I agree. I think that he really does want to add Jay and Daniels if he can make it happen. The problem is now, is he going to be there at three and how much does it cost to go from 13 to 3? And can you outbid the Vikings? I don't know.

I think that's going to be the tougher part. And do the Vikings like him or are they going to be waiting on JJ McCarthy? That's the whole other part of it, too. I think that the pass would be smart to trade back if they get an offer. And I think they could. I think they very well could. There's some hungry dogs down there. There's some hungry dogs down there.

The Raiders are a disaster. The Vikings already made this change because they're hungry. And Denver has no chance at quarterback. And you know Sean Payton wants to get another guy in the door. So I don't know. I think the Patriots are in a really good spot to get some value out of that pick. All right. Let's do McCarthy next.

All right, Austin. You first then. Sealing number one overall. I mean, at this point, the smoke can carry him to the top. No, I don't, I'm not even buying his ceilings too. I don't think he's going to. I can't. I won't.

And if he does, I don't know. I don't know what I'll do. I'll be sad, I guess. I don't know. I'll be a little surprised. But I think his ceiling legitimately. looking at where this stacks up is probably six to the giant's what I picked I had six I think six to the Giants is the ceiling I could also see a team trading up to five with the charters

maybe trying to secure jjy McCarthy maybe it's an 11 to 5 type of trade from the minnesota vikings but I think after that after the giants I think it's going to be Minnesota there at 11 I don't know I don't know if he gets past 11 I don't know if he gets past 11 I'd be kind of surprised at this point at this point hearing all that we've heard I've be surprised if he gets past the Vikings at 11 because I do think the Vikings of any team, right? Raiders, disaster. Right? Their roster's horrid.

Like, they're projected five and a half wins next year. They don't have a good enough players to, like, bring in a rookie quarterback and even take advantage of it. Denver is in a very similar situation. The Vikings, they actually have tools to where, like, they could be playoff competitive with, like, a solid rookie quarterback. And I don't know. That's where I think that J.J. McCarthy doesn't get past 11. I had the floor at 11, too.

I put the ceiling at 4 with the Cardinals pick be a trade just because, you know, look, four or five, it's, it's just one, how much does Arizona like probably the top, whoever is the top receiver on their board, right? Like, are they so enamored with Marvin Harrison that they're just not going to, not going to take an offer that would net them another first round pick because they just want to, want to pick the player? Then it becomes the Chargers. I think the Chargers would love to, to be in the position to be the team that's receiving those offers. I still wonder

just because I do think that there are teams that would be willing to trade up and devote an extra first round pick of capital in order to do that. And I just you know, Montieausenport, he comes from that Patriot system.

They do really like to trade down. I know there's a lot of stuff out there about how they really would like to add someone high impact, so they might stay put and just make their pick. But I think if it becomes a quarterback situation, then, you know, the picks talk. So then if it's four, it's that probably implies quarterbacks went one, two, three, right?

Some combination of Williams, Daniels May in whatever order. And then we're talking about is the team that's trading up, are they? like who is willing to go there for J.J. McCarthy. And I do feel like I can see the Vikings doing it. You know, they have the extra pick. I think they are more likely if this scenario is somehow different and we're talking about a world

where the team that's trading up is going after Daniels, then I don't think it's the Vikings. But it just feels like that's a McCarthy spot if it ended up being a trade-up. and I think Minnesota would be the team to do it. So I put the ceiling just a little higher at four. But again, if they thought they could stay put and do it, I'm sure they would be thrilled to.

So Florida 11. I'm going to play the middle and put his ceiling at five. I think if the first three go, obviously Arizona doesn't need a quarterback. The Chargers don't need a quarterback. The team you need a jump is the Giants, who brought in J.J. McCarthy for a visit, which could also be a smokescreen.

They could just be trying to drum up trade interests for him by bringing them in. But I think that's the ceiling. The floor, I'm going a lot lower. I would go 20th. I wouldn't be surprised if he drops down to like where the Steelers are picking. I wouldn't be surprised if like all these teams that are claiming to love him don't actually love him as much as people are claiming. He's not a top of the team.

When you say where the Steelers are picking, do you mean if somebody traded with Steelers? Because if they drafted him, that is the funniest quarterback room of all time. They should think about drafting him. I don't think they should like, they should not think about bringing another quarterback into the situation because Russell Wilson is probably not going to be there next year.

Justin Fields probably won't be there next year either. So I think like this is the one guy that is. I'm not disagreeing with you. That's just a hysterical group of quarterback. No, I would love it. It would be so good. Like JJ McCarthy and Russell Wilson interacting, if Antonio Pierce saw that,

he would trade a million first round people. The eye contact off that would take place in that meeting room, just like off the charts. Would be absolutely damning for this. period of media coverage for the NFL if JJ McCarthy slides to like 20. It's like, okay. I will tattoo it on my leg to

say nothing matters. Everything's a joke. And like just don't like, don't buy literally anything that's being said. Because I'd be so shocked at this point with everything that Pellisero, Rappaport, Shepter, everything's saying. I mean, but like how different is this than where we were with Will Levis? Exactly. At this time

last year he was the favorite to go number two overall and he didn't go in the first round. Maybe I should have tattooed it last year. I should have been tattooed it last year. I forgot already. Go ahead. Book the appointment. It was based on the same shit too.

It was based on, oh, God, when you get him in a meeting room, oh, he gets on the board and he does these protections. I think J.J. 4 might be day three. I don't know. Like, I mean, now I'm starting to think it could go all the, no. What I was going to say, I did. All of a sudden is like, nothing matters. Nothing's real.

What I was going to say, because I did say I was going to put the Washington commanders in the trash can if they drafted J.J. McCarthy, too. am I, am I stupid to say I kind of like it for the Vikings if they got them in a, I don't know. I kind of like, I kind of like the idea of them trying to take advantage of a rookie quarterback contract. And I think what Kevin O'Connell did with her cousins and the offense that they have in place and like the tools that they have, I don't know. Like, I like them taking JJ, okay, you're the Vikings, right?

You have the Vikings roster. You have the Vikings coaching staff. Would you rather have JJ McCarthy at 11 or Bo Nix, Michael, Michael Pennix at the top of day, too? Which would you rather have? why do I have to choose between those three options? Okay, what other options do you want? I got Sam Donald, baby. No, okay, okay, maybe.

Okay, so Sam Donald. Then Sam Donald, what do you think? No, no, I agree. I think that JJ and Minnesota works for those first four years. I think it looks good and I think everyone's like, oh, we got herself a quarterback. The problem is the next five years. And when you're drafted a quarterback in the first round

and you're trading up for a quarterback, especially, you're not drafting for the next four years. And if you are, you're making a mistake. I don't think Quezzi thinks like that. I think they're smart. in office. I think they're thinking long term with this quarterback, whoever it is. So I don't know. I know the Vikings make a lot of sense and he seems like the perfect quarterback for that system. I think it would work out the first four years. I don't think anyone would think

he was a bus. I don't think anyone would lose their jobs, but I just don't think you're getting max value out of this position they're in. And I don't think they're going to be in this position again with the 11th pick and the 23rd pick in the first round. I'm with you there. I think if they trade up for him, I get less interested. But if they're able to stay put at 11 and swing that bat on J.J. Carthy, I can talk myself into it. That's kind of where I'm at with Minnesota. And if they trade down and get them and pick up a couple extra picks, then I'm all for that. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

That would be an ultimate fleecing. The interesting team for me is Denver. Like, I really wonder, because I know Champagne is so particular about his quarterbacks. Like, I could see him having Jayden Daniels not on his board just because he's not the type of quarterback he likes. I could see JJ McCarthy not being on his board just because he's a smaller quarterback. I don't know. But I really think that I could see Sean Payton trading down and drafting one of these like QB4s, QB5s, his projects, quote unquote,

like a Bo Nix and Pennix. Because if you look through his history of drafting quarterbacks, he drafts a lot of day two quarterbacks and takes a lot of chances on guys. And he's like, I can fix this guy. And I think he can talk himself into fixing Bo Nix or Michael Pennix, whatever that looks like.

Quessie, just to just jumping back 30 seconds. Strong outfit game. Yeah, that guy's fitted. He's fitted. Like there was a, there was a burgundy velvet blazer in the mix somewhere? And it worked. It worked.

Red flag, green flag, green flag for NFL GM. Green, green, green. I disagree. What do you, what's the proof? Show me the history. Show me the history. I don't have the history. Belichick is one of the greatest GMs of all time and the guy dresses like a slop.

You're right. Is that, maybe I do, maybe I do want like a torture genius. Or Belichick, the coach pick out his outfits in the morning. Now, that's a good question. Well, Belichick, the coach is the good one. He's the smart one. The one that dresses like the slob is the smart one. The one that wears like a collared shirt is the one that drafts Nicol Harry Harry

I don't know. I'm not so sure. I kind of think sloppy Bill is on the sidelines. I'm trying to think of other like good GMs. Harry Roseman, is he a notable dresser? He's definitely not a slog. Howard Roseman just dresses like an accountant. We'll have to think about this.

We'll come up. Another pod down the line. I'll come back. I'll do some research. I'll figure it out. and then we'll decide whether it's good to dress up as a GM or it's been. My statement rests. The drip on the drip on Quessie is encouraging.

All right. We have two quarterbacks left. Austin, where is your ceiling and floor on Bow Nix? Oh, my God. I'm not, I don't know. Part of me wants to be bowling and say he doesn't go in the first round. But I think he could be a candidate for this back end of first. But we say that these guys every year.

I think what's so many quarterbacks expected to. to go in the top 13. I would say, like, right now, four feels expected, but I don't know. I think he's top of day two is his ceiling. And then his floor is probably, probably somewhere in round three. I don't know. I'm out on Bo Nix going in the first round. I think there's too many quarterbacks already going in the first round for

there to be this like, oh, we're going to trade back up in and take them. I think that teams are going to be fine taking Bo Nix without the fifth year option. You know, teams are going to be fine taking my. Yeah. And I feel very similar about Michael Penix. I'm higher on Knicks than I am on Pennix. But I think both players are going to be day two guys. Do you think, Stephen, what do you think the odds are that either Knicks for Penix goes in the first round?

I think they both slip out of the first round. I think one of the most overrated things that, like, we in media talk about over the last couple years with the draft is like teams trading up into the first round to get that fifth year option, which literally doesn't happen. Like it happened with Lamar Jackson, but I don't think that's what that was. I think that was the Ravens being like, holy shit, we can get Lamar Jackson. It kind of happened with Teddy Bridgewater a long time ago, but the CBA changed where now you have to guarantee that fifth year option. It's become more of a problem than a solution because, like, say you have Joe Burrow and it's not, you don't have to worry about the fifth year option. You sign them after year three. So the fifth year option really never comes into play.

Right. But with like Sam Darnold that comes into play, and all of a sudden, oh, shit, we're on the hook to pay Sam Darnold 20 million dollars next year. Right. So I think that fifth year option thing is overrated, which I think hurts the cases of Bo Nix. I agree. Michael Pennix getting up in the first round. Unless, Sean Payne loves Bo Nix, which I think is a possibility. You're essentially trading future draft capital for the opportunity to pay the player a fully guaranteed year in like some contract.

Like, I mean, if you're drafted at the back of the first round, you're not that confident. He might be a, you know, player like two or a couple of years anyway. So I agree that is a bit overrated. It's been so it's the, it keeps getting held up in the, in the, as a factor in the Justin Fields dynamic of him, of the, of the the bear's not getting more compensation as like, well, you know, the decision is looming and it's such a bad thing, which like that I also think is ridiculous because it's just like, well, just don't do it. Like, just don't pick it up. Just pay him $3 million for one year and that's fine.

The Packers basically like opted out of the fifth year option. Jordan Love and it worked out just fine. I don't think it's good or bad. I just think it's like overblown as how much it matters. They, like, teams will use it if they think the player is worth $20 million. And if they don't, they won't. And it's fine. But for my floor and ceiling for Bo Nix, I would say my floor is the second round.

You could pick whichever's pick. I would say my ceiling, though, I think you could go 20th. I really do. Also to Pittsburgh. Yeah. Not necessarily. Not necessarily. But you just think that that's the spot where, oh, what the heck, let's do it sort of starts.

Or where, like, teams might trade down. I could see, like, Denver trading down. to that that region. I'm really trying to push the Bo-Nix to Denver situation. I got to bet on it. That's what it is. No. But with Pennix, like, I can't see Pennix going in the first round.

Yeah. Like you watch the tape, and the way he throws the football, I know it could be like a left-handed thing, but he just doesn't, that's not what it looks like. It's just not what it looks like. No, I'm not there. And then all the other concerns with him where, obviously, a late bloomer, the knee injuries,

playing with NFL wide receivers and just throwing go balls all day long. I can't see a team talking themselves into a first round pick on that guy. Rattler over Pennix. I agree. Now, Rattler. So we have a discussion about Rattler.

All right, Spencer Rattler, floor ceiling. I think Rattler could be a second round guy. I could see it. I could see it. I could see it. But he's not going into the first. Probably more likely a third round ceiling, maybe fourth, fifth round floor.

I don't know. There's a lot to air. I feel like he is somewhat too, though, if you want to go like the anti-smoke screen, no one's talking about him. Even his pro day, though, like a lot of people are like, oh, this looks good. We'll see. We'll see. I think I could see a Rattler rise, a late Rattler rise into, you know, top of day two.

Not top of day two, maybe late round two. Also, his name is Spencer Rattler. I feel like that's being overlooked. It's a market inefficiency. Like, that guy has to be good. Yeah. A Rattler rise. He has to be better than Bo Nix and Michael Pennix.

Like, come on. I will refrain from the joke. about the second guy. But Bo Nix's actual name is Bo. It's not even a nickname. That guy is not going to be good. You hang up too much on that, but fine. I disagree.

I actually disagree with that. I think Bo Nix sounds like a good athlete. I agree. I disagree, obviously, but okay. I think Spencer Rattler. Actually, honestly, I think Bo Nix sounds like a better athlete than Spencer Rattler. A better athlete, not a better quarterback. Can you imagine being like, Bo?

Bo is never going to win a Super Bowl. I'm sorry. If Bo Jackson couldn't do it, if Bo Jackson couldn't do it, Beau Nixon definitely isn't doing it. All right. Well, I guess we'll find out. The Rattler Rise, you heard it here first. This has been Dual Threat. I'm Nora Principati. Thank you to Stephen Reeves and Austin Gale for joining me on this episode. Thank you to Eduardo Ocampo and Kara Givens for their work on socials.

Thank you to Stefan Anderson for producing this episode. Thank you to Connor and Evans. Arjuna Ramgapal for their additional production supervision. No extra point taken this Friday. Shield Capadia enjoying his vacation. We wish him the best. The next episode on this feed is going to be extra point taken next Monday. So look out for that and enjoy.

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