The Ringer NFL Show - Takeaways From Wild-Card Weekend

Episode Date: January 13, 2021

Sharp and Verno discuss their takeaways from all of the wild-card games and talk about the Eagles firing Doug Pederson (1:17:07). Hosts: Warren Sharp and Chris Vernon Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On today's episode of the Ringer NFL show, Warren Sharp and I recap the wild card weekend and debate what went wrong for all of the losing teams. Also, before we get started, I want to remind you that immediately following the final game Saturday and Sunday, the Ringer NFL show is going to be going back live. On Saturday, you can watch Kevin Clark and Ryan Rissillo, and on Sunday, Kevin Clark and Norman Princiotti will be breaking down every playoff matchup. Make sure you're subscribe to the Ringer's YouTube channel at YouTube.com slash the Ringer. at Ringer NFL on Twitter. Now on to the show. Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I'm Chris Vernon.

Join me as always is Warren Sharp. Warren. Chris, what's going on, man? Well, we had a bunch of NFL playoff games since we last spoke. There's a couple good ones. Most of them were pretty, man.

I know you are football, football, football. I love that it's on TV. I love that there's all these games going on. But even you, you must admit, these were not the peak of entertainment level this past weekend, right? You know, I don't know that I'd say it wasn't the peak. Some of the things were very shocking when you look at some of the results. Like obviously the way that the Cleveland Browns got off to start that game, we're going to dive a little bit more in detail in that one.

But, you know, there were some competitive games. I think the one that was probably the least exciting maybe in my, opinion was the Saints Bears game. But it wasn't because it was a massive blood. I mean, that game was pretty close to begin with. So, um, but that was the one that, you know, I did turn on Nickelodeon channel and, uh, check out what they were doing over there just to keep myself a little bit more entertained. The Nicola, I liked the Nickelodeon broadcast. I did too. I thought, I thought, I thought, I thought people should not be hating on this because it's the perfect way to introduce kids to football. and it's also great for like parents or people that never got into it as much to kind of understand some of the rules and have a little bit of fun.

I thought it was a great concept and I really hope that they do more of it because, you know, expand the brand. Absolutely. I'm with you. All right, let's go to these games. The most shocking of the outcomes was what took place in the Cleveland Pittsburgh game. Because I'll be honest with you. I did not. get when I flip the channel because I was like oh that game's starting I flipped the channel over and the ball is in the end zone and Cleveland is celebrating and I'm like what in the hell just happened it says there's 1446 on the clock like this game like oh I haven't how did I miss something already and and then of course I see the replay I see the the snap go over rothusberger's head there's lame ass attempt by both rothelisberger and

to get on top of the ball, even though it's a playoff game. And Cleveland jumping out to that early league, and then it was lead, and then it was all Cleveland. For the majority of the game, I guess for one moment when Pittsburgh had the ball down 12 and then punted it away, really like right up to that point, I guess I thought like, oh, Pittsburgh might actually, like the Browns might actually collapse in this.

Pittsburgh might come all the way. back, but then once they punted down by 12, that was kind of the end of that. But let's kind of walk through Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and their biggest takeaways from it. Number one, biggest takeaway, how dumb the Steelers were. Number two, biggest takeaway, how great Kevin Stefansky was. I mean, you really have contrasting coaches, and I did not anticipate to run into, like, a major coaching mismatch in this game, but I was very cautious about it. Either we discussed it on this show, or I think I talked about on house but like i did not like either of the coordinators on the steelers and i just felt like kevin

sefansky was going to be severely hampered right with the week of prep he's not at the facility it's difficult to do how in the world is he going to train a guy to call play is a guy to be a head coach get baker mayfield ready they lost these guys what like 36 to 7 or something earlier in the season like how is he possibly going to get everybody to do what needs to be done and then you know, once the game script wears off, how's he going to be able to execute in the game? Like, how's he going to get the right, make sure that they're doing the right plays? All I could say is this, we can laugh about it during the game. It's kind of funny.

Oh, the Browns don't really need a coach. To me, what it cemented is how fucking great Kevin Sifansky was. Because this guy was able to do everything that needed to be done, including train his backup play caller into what to do, including train his head. coach into how to operate things. I mean, it was a phenomenal job of having the right place called. I mean, we're talking about even into the fourth quarter where the Browns go three by two, spread out the Steelers, have some heavy personnel. They have like a tight end on the far left of the formation to occupy a cornerback. They send a running back in motion to the top of the formation to occupy another cornerback. They know that they, if they stick Jarvis Landry in the slot,

the Steelers are going to stick one of their slow linebackers on him. And then they clear out with the other guys on that side of the ball. The two other receivers standing there run down the field, clear out the other DBs, and allow single coverage with Jarvis Landry, the best wide receiver on that football team against a fucking linebacker for the Steelers. And he takes advantage of it. This was something that the Steelers were doing two years ago. I isolated the specific play because I remembered it because I,

tweeted about it two years ago against the Chargers where they were getting Keenan Allen lined up on a critical third and short situation in the game that the Chargers ended up winning in Pittsburgh by kicking a last second field goal. This was a debacle from Keith Butler, the Steelers defensive coordinator, who by the way is terrible. And if you look at the defensive personnel that they have, like the studs that they started the season with on the defensive side of the ball is really not that big of a secret that this as to why they were good. I mean, they've got great fucking players. And then when those guys started to drop, then his scheme gets like more exposed in terms of

what he does. And if a smart offense coordinator goes up against him, this is why you constantly saw the Patriots have success against the Steelers and not have quite the level of success against some of the top teams in the AFC at the time. They were good, but it were more competitive. they just owned this the rules for the Pittsburgh Steelers defense and the coverage concepts. But the bigger takeaway is not for me. Yes, it's all about how great I think Stefansky is.

But it's in addition to Steelers dumb defense. It's how dumb these guys were offensively. Because I could not understand. And if you look at the final stats, this is why you really have to parse through this stuff, Chris. When you look at the final stats, it's like, holy shit, been through the ball a billion times. What could you say that they're too run heavy here? but the Steelers are a pass-heavy team. They beat the Cleveland Browns in week 6, 38 to 6 by passing the ball on 61% of their

plays on early downs in the first half of the game. Cleveland has a mid-tier run defense. They have a bottom 10 pass defense that earned a bottom 10 rating despite playing the second easiest schedule of pass offenses in the NFL. They were a crappy past defense. And by the way, they were playing this game without both of their starting cornerbacks. Now, you are a pass-heavy offense yourself. You fucking rested Ben Rottisberger for week 17 so that his arm was lively and his legs had more energy and he could throw the ball in the playoffs.

You're playing a team that sucks against the pass is better against a run and without both their starting cornerbacks. who the fuck comes out and chooses to go 56% run in the first quarter on offense. Those run plays gain 2.9 yards per carry. The Pittsburgh Steelers on the season were 40% pass in the first quarter. This idiot goes 56% run. I had no idea what he's trying to do. Part of playoffs, and you saw this a little bit in Tennessee, Chris, is getting your quarterback into a rhythm and they got Ben Rossburger and did no rhythm at all. No rhythm at all

by all these run plays. I mean, they're figuring out how to use fullback dives. I think Chris Collins were said like that fullback has not even had a single rushing attempt on the entire season. So I don't know. I could go on and on. Okay. All right. You know, you know, I've known Randy Feeder for a long time, right? So I don't want this to come off as I'm defending my guy. But let me say this. But you're going to defend your guy. Well, this is where this rings hollow to me. Oh, come on. Come on.

Let's hear. Because I think what you're, like, I mean, I saw you bitching about the running thing, right? Rothersberger was terrible, Warren. Terrible. Terrible. That's because he got into no rhythm at all. Oh, shit. Oh, come on, Chris.

No rhythm. He was awful, Warren. Oh, really? They had, and by the way, this whole. He threw for over 500 yards and five touchdowns. Bro, those picks are because he didn't. get into a rhythm? What cockam-a-maid bullshit is that? All right, look, he's a dead man back there. All right. The other thing is this, they, you say, oh, why would they run? Why would they run?

They had fucking third and one twice, Warren. What are we even doing if you can't get one yard? Like, what are we even doing here? The Pittsburgh Steelers can't get one yard. That's the problem. They were third and one. It's not like they ran into the line, ran into the line, and it's third and nine. And so why are you running the ball? It was run, run. Now it's third and one. What do you want them to do? You want them to pass for the third and one, Warren?

It's third and one. I want them to sneak the ball like a normal team would do. But those are positive. You're all about the positive value. They're third and one. They got nine yards on the first two plays. And now it's third and one and they get stuffed. And so the Warren Sharps of the world can say,

see this is why you don't fucking run and it's like bro if we can't if they can't get one yard what are we doing here if you would have thrown it you'd have been like what the hell of you doing throwing it on third and one just run the ball don't don't get too caught up don't get too caught up in a in a third and one run play because I'm not going to argue tremendously against that I do think but they're not in a bad spot but they're not in a bad spot because they ran the ball they're not in a bad third and one is not a bad spot to be in. No, Chris, okay, there is a difference between yards per carry and success rate. When you have a lower yards per carry, you would expect that in a short yarder situation.

So if you want to say, well, they're running the ball on these third and one plays, they did that a little bit, okay, but they also had other runs that they typically would have passed the ball. And if you're in football, the main focus that I work on with every single team that I try to assist is the quickest path to victory. If you're playing a team like the Cleveland Browns, okay, you know you've got Baker Mayfield back there. You know he sucks against pressure. You know you want to make him an obvious past situation so you can pin your ears back and rush Baker Mayfield. The way that you do that is you absolutely must come out and get a lead in the game. And you need to figure out the fastest way to get the lead, the most efficient.

way to get the lead. And my whole point is this, you could sprinkle in runs. I'm not saying go 100% pass. I don't want you to go 100% pass. Juggle some runs in there too. But when you switch during a game approaching a defense that has neither of the cornerbacks and you've been fine passing the football against these guys earlier on in the season and now they're without both cornerbacks, the time to go run heavy is not for this game. You still want to run a ball some, but you don't want to go run heavy. They were obviously going to pass the ball right off the bat, except they hiked it over the damn guy's head into the end.

That was a run play. That first play, the reason why Pouncy throws it over the guy's head is because he, and from watching the Steelers, you've probably seen this, he struggles with some of his snaps, especially in shotgun. That first play of the game, he was trying to pull and go off to the left as quickly as possible. He wasn't trying to pass pro. He was going to run block. And his responsibility was snap this and then get out quickly. And in his process of doing that on the first play of the game, he fucked up. So that was, that's on how I'm saying. But that was the first play of the game. It was a run.

To me, when you hike the ball over the guy's head into the end zone and then Ben throws three picks and they're all on his own side of the 50, like players got to play, Warren. Like this isn't, These coaches are not sitting in the middle of the fucking field playing chess against each other. These are actual players that have to make plays. And if a guy hikes the ball over a guy's head into the damn end zone, if a guy throws three picks, he gets into a rhythm. He's been in the league for 20 frigging years. He stinks.

And he threw shitty passes. That's what he did. He didn't throw shitty passes because Randy Feetner called a bad play. He threw shitty passes because he threw his shitty passes. because he threw his shitty pass. Like sometimes a guy's got to make plays. And I think you always want to make it about the coaches. I'm doing a pretty good job defending my guy here.

Who is not, look, he is not infallible and he is not great. I'm just saying to me, it's not because Randy Feetner and was so mismatched because he called some runs on third and one that they didn't get. It's that his quarterback went out there and threw the ball to the wrong frigging team. Like, that's what he did. Those picks are not, they're not like, tip. I appreciate your perspective, and I appreciate that Ben Rosasberger did not have a good game. I'm not going to argue that he had a great game, okay?

But what I will say is this, as an objective analyst who has no horse in this race, which you obviously do, my expert, unbiased opinion on the game was that the play calling sucked from both offensive and defensive coordinators. If you want to do the objective thing that we can talk about everything that you're not objective about, you want to do this? I'm just saying that the play calling sucked from both offensive and defensive coordinators. Ben did not have a very good game either. Okay. But I'm not going to sit here and give the play caller a pass for running the ball on 56% of the plays in the first quarter of the game and scoring no points. Not everything is Randy Fickner's fault. What happened when they called the passes?

They had a shitload of success throwing the football down the field against the Cleveland Browns. No, no, no. When they, all right, so after the 56% of the plays, which I don't even know whatever amount of play. Are you talking about five out of ten plays or whatever it was? Then the plays that they called. They were 40% on the season. They were 40% pass on the season. And then when he threw the ball, so then they decided, okay, we're not going to run the ball anymore.

And he threw it, he threw it to the other team. He threw it to the other team. It's a number of times. They threw, but he threw it to the other team. Like, I mean, what I'd say? Is it a good thing that he threw the ball? Is it a good thing that he threw the ball? It's a good thing.

They recorded over 500 yards passing on a garbage secondary without their two starting cornerbacks. In fairness, they were down by 30 points. I mean, it's not like Cleveland was pinning their ears back defensively after they were up by 30. Come on. Well, that's what that's why you were going to be able to have success. throwing the football on these guys. You are not going to win playoff games turning the ball over. Okay. Number one, that is the number one factor in winning and losing games is turnovers,

but number two, it's margin at the half. And if you allow yourself to enter the game with an inefficient strategy and you don't play well enough, both of those things, okay, both of those things, then you're not going to have the lead at halftime. And you're going to be in a real tough predicament trying to claw your way back in the second half. Ironically, the Steelers almost were able to do that, but for that absolutely absurd decision by Mike Tomlin to punt the ball, which was just, I mean, I don't know what he's thinking there. I saw both brainless decision.

I saw both him and Vrable. I had never seen that surrender index before this weekend. And it was like 100% surrender or whatever. Like, look, I, yeah, the 99.99%tile. Yes. And look, I tried to go to war for a guy that I've known for a long time. The truth is, I do think Big Ben sucks. I do.

I know you. I know you do. That's why I'm trying to be, that's why I'm trying to let you get your, get your energy out. He's lost to Tim Tebow. He's lost to Blake Bortles. He's lost to Baker Mayfield. He's lost to Joe Schmo. These are all playoff games with all different coordinators.

They remember Bruce Ariens suck, too. I think he's doing okay now. It's always the coordinator's fault with Big Ben. Baltimore, Tennessee, the other surrender game. Key, the Ravens, you were on them. You know what I mean? Like, I heard you with Bill, and you were like the whole nobody believes in us team. And I know they were favored in that game,

but really people were not very high on the Ravens going into this game. I felt like this game was a pretty boring game with one. amazing play in it. The Lamar Ron? Yes. Yeah. Other than that, what was, I mean, the game was pretty blah game. Tennessee ran the ball to Derek Henry into the line.

I know you hated that with the fires of seven else. Them did that. I will, look, I back you on this. He's just running the ball for one and a half yards every time. And I'm like, what is the point of this? They got A.J. Brown. I don't think Corey Day. Davis had a catch, did he?

They got Johnny Smith. They got Corey David. They got weapons on that team. It was bizarre. Yeah, another game where I was just flabbergasted by some of the play calling and the lack of adjusting. I mean, the Tennessee Titans, this is the frustrating thing. And we've been talking about this on this very show for months now, Chris.

Like, it's literally been multiple months that we have said, Arthur Smith needs to adjust. defenses are now playing to stack the box on first downs in the first quarter of the games. They're daring the Titans to throw the ball. So they want you to run it. They're ready to stop that run. So I mean, that's the number one thing that I think most teams need to look at when it's so simple. It sounds so simple. But when you're calling plays, when you're game planning a game, what does that other team want you to do?

Don't do it. Like if they want you to punt, then you probably are in a better position by not punting the football. And if they want you to run the ball, then you maybe want to think about throwing it because they're ready to stop that run. And they absolutely were. And the run rate was absolutely absurd on early downs, specifically first down at the beginning of this game. And I definitely feel like Derek Henry gets things going and has a lot of success late in games

but he absolutely has been stymied early by these teams. And they had 10 first downs in the first half of this game, Chris, and they ran the ball on 80% of those plays for 1.9 yards per carry. I mean, it was completely predictable. This is the entire first half of the game, completely predictable. The second drive, I went back and looked at this. didn't have a chance to compile all the numbers because it's less relevant now. And I'm going to dig back into it when I write my book this offseason. But we're focused on what just happened.

And now let's look ahead to the future games. But I have noticed that Arthur Smith tends to come out in his second drive of the game with a lot more passes on first downs. And then he goes back to the run. So he runs on first drive of the game, runs on the third drive of the game, comes out with a little bit more pass on first down in that second drive of the game. And of course, they marched the ball right down the field and score a touchdown. Other than that, you know, it really was a very frustrating game to watch from Tennessee's perspective with a couple of these punts like you were referring to that didn't make a whole lot of sense if you're going to be aggressive and try to win this football game.

On Baltimore side of things, well, let me stop you right there. Do you think that just because Tenry trucked them last year? And Tanny Hill, who had, he made some plays and made some plays on third down, I recall. But he, what do he have? Maybe 10 completions in the game or something. Like the playoff game that they won against Baltimore last year, right? So, I mean, the idea. And clearly you would think if you're Baltimore, like, all right.

Remember how we got trucked last year by this guy? We're not letting that happen again. And you would think. But it felt like Tennessee was like, we know we can do this against them. and they just were kept on, you know, banging their head against a wall. Because Henry had had that monster game that he ran all over him last year, right? Right, exactly. And even if you looked at the earlier game this season where these two teams met,

and if you look at the first half on first downs in week 11 this season, what does Tennessee do? they run the ball 92% of the time on these first down plays. But in that case, Derek Henry is gaining 5.1 yards per carry. But they literally go 11 runs and only one pass attempt. And Derek Henry has some success doing that. Now, they fall behind on the scoreboard and they're losing at halftime.

They end up rallying back to win the game late. And then in overtime, Derek Henry gets a lot more momentum and a lot more steam in the second half of the game, breaks off longer, more explosive runs at a higher rate in the second half of the game. But I mean, what do you think Wink Martindale is doing? He's like, these guys ran on us 11 out of 12 first downs. They're probably going to say, and that's the benefit of losing and the prior game sometimes is like, okay, the team that wins is going to do the same shit. The team that loses is going to say, we got to make some adjustments. So Wink's like, these guys are going to run on us. Let's prepare to stop the run.

Arthur Smith saw that the run wasn't having as much success, that is when you need the counterpoint. That's when you need to come with something different. You can't just keep jabbing and jabbing and jabbing if the defense on the other guy's too good and he expects the jab. That's when you throw the counter and throw a hook or something to surprise the other guy. And that never really came except on that second drive of the game. So that was frustrating from that perspective. But let's look at things from Baltimore side of things.

yes, I was obviously higher on the Ravens. And let's be fair, I mean, the Ravens were favored in this game. So it's not like I was coming up with anything absurd here. But the public backed the Titans more than the public backed any other dog of the entire week. And a lot of the Sharp guys were on the Titans as well, betting them as an underdog. That's why this line dropped as much as it did in the Titans favors because they were taking the points with the Baltimore, sorry, with the Tennessee Titans. But the main thing I said entering this game is, you know, Tennessee's defense has been allowing Baltimore a lot of success in the games that they played, 20 drives in regulation leading up to it,

and only three punts. They had 11 drives on Sunday and only punted three times. Now, it's a higher percentage, right? Three out of 11 is a higher percentage than three out of 20. But it's still a very good rate. That means you're not punting on the vast majority of your drives. Tennessee punts on five of their nine drives. So you're not going to win a game like that when another team's only

punting three out of 11. Well, let me ask you. I mean, because I know you didn't like the Titans game plan. Did you like the Ravens? Because that was just run the ball, run the ball, run the ball.

I mean, it feels to me like that is the difference, right? It's like, okay, Lamar broke one. So it looks a lot better. Right?

Like, I mean, I think they're, if Derek Henry breaks one or two of those, then all of a sudden, maybe the running, The idea of running the ball looks a lot better. But, you know, as a guy that preaches pass early, pass early, pass early, I mean,

the Ravens didn't do shit throwing the ball. You know, that was all running. Actually, Lamar, well, the run that Lamar had wasn't even a designed run. Right. The pocket broke down and he escaped and then made magic happen on that play. And that's what worked for them. But if you look at first downs in the first half for Baltimore, Lamar passes, they actually passed the ball more than they run.

ran it, but Lamar only averages 1.3 yards per pass attempt with a 29% success rate, takes one sack and throws one interception. So, I mean, he was terrible on first down passing. And if you look overall with this team, Lamar did pass for 179 yards at 7.5 yards per pass attempt. Neither quarterback did very well in this game. Lamar took a bunch of sacks. And we're talking about a Tennessee Titans defense that over the course of the season was, it was obviously the worst that made the playoffs, but it was one of the worst in the NFL for most of the season in general. They were a bad defense.

And I was curious how Baltimore was going to play them, because I felt like Tennessee was in their heads a little bit with the wins. And so I knew Baltimore was going to try something a little bit different, but they play Tennessee. I don't know. They play them a little bit strange. But if there is not that Lamar run for a touchdown, I mean, our thought passed us right now halfway through the week leading into

the divisional round is significantly different. I mean, who knows whether Baltimore ends up winning that game, right? But it looks like Baltimore did really well. And it looks like Baltimore's defense was really great. But how much of that is really Tennessee focusing too much on the run, Baltimore knowing how to stop that. And let's be realistic, what does Baltimore's offense even doing in this game against one of the worst defenses in the NFL, right?

They were not very good in this game. So we walk away thinking highly of Baltimore, really highly of Baltimore. And the early money is obviously coming in. And we're going to talk about this later in the week as to what we think could occur in a nightcap game on Saturday night. But the early money is definitely buying Baltimore. I mean, like I would be shocked at the public is not on Baltimore in this game against Buffalo because Buffalo narrowly won against the Colts.

But so this is my question. So you liked the game. because they threw a lot early, but Lamar was awful doing it. So what? You're trying to make this into something about the Steelers still. No, I'm not saying I liked,

I'm not saying I liked the Ravens game plan. I didn't say anything as to whether I liked or didn't like the Ravens game plan. I'm saying the Ravens, the Titans get in the Ravens head defensively, and I don't think the Ravens really know the right way to attack the Titans. and that was clearly evident here. They weren't efficient running the football. They weren't efficient throwing the football.

They didn't, my biggest takeaway for this game is that they didn't have a very good output offensively against a bad, bad, bad Tennessee Titans defense. So how much of that can we carry forward when we're looking at the Buffalo game? I don't know. It's going to be interesting to break that game down for sure. Yeah, because it doesn't, they're not going to be able to keep up offensive. I mean, their defense has to have a home run game against. And I'll just say this.

The interesting part, and we're going to talk about this later, so I don't want to dive too deep here. But the interesting part, Chris, is Baltimore sending the Blitz and getting pressure on Josh Allen. Look at the splits for Josh Allen. He is night and day different when you get pressure on him. So the biggest factor in this game to me, other than how Sean McDermott chooses to try to slow down Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore creative run game is because he hasn't played them for a little while.

unlike Tennessee is how do we keep Josh Allen upright? What do we choose to do? And they lost their number one running back, Moss in that game against the Colts. So he's out for the season. So now you're down to your number two running back. I mean, there's so many great X's and O's that we're going to break down on that.

Yeah. And that Ravens Bill's game. I think it could be the Ravens bills. I'm with you. The Tennessee's defense is weak, but it just felt like, you know, you listen to the hardball after it.

like, you know, basically play great defense and run the ball, tough win, make a couple plays here or there. Like some of these, like, especially like guys that are given to old school football, they love that. They love the idea that that's how you win a road game, right? And to his credit, you know, there's only a few guys that have ever won more road games. In fact, he might be the only, he might, I think he's won the most now. I saw that stout where it was like Tom Landry and Tom Coughlin in terms of road play.

off wins. I mean, Harbaugh is elite in terms of taking a team on the road and coming away with a victory. It's crazy. Yeah, he's he's really good from that perspective. I will give him credit for that. He's, uh, he's had some great teams, but he's been a great, uh, head coach. What was funny, though, I mean, um, I read the newspapers in the articles in Baltimore, like three years ago when like Joe Flackle was on the roster and they had just drafted, um, Lamar Jackson. And there was serious talks heading into that season, like, should they fire? John Harbaugh. Because the team hadn't been winning. The team had been struggling. They were trying to figure out what their identity was. And the fans, I guess, weren't buying tickets as much. And there was

like clamor to see if we should fire John Harbaugh. And of course, like, they've come back and they've made the playoffs every single season since. Wow. Tampa Bay, Washington. This was, I mean, Taylor Heineke was the story of this game. Because, you know, nobody was expected. I think, you know, really, when we talked last week, we're kind of under the impression that Alex Smith was going to play in the game. Nobody even knows who Taylor Heineke is. Like, what I read earlier this week,

he was like taking online courses when they first called him or whatever. Oh, yeah, he's a really smart, really smart courses that he was taking. Scott Turner was joking about the applied mathematic classes that Taylor Heineke was taking. That's what he was taken. Yeah.

Anyway, he made some plays. He certainly, look, his run to the end zone where he laid out for the touchdown was awesome. And they, to me, it was weird because I really thought, like, the story of the game would be, can they get pressure on Brady? Chase Young had talked to his shit. You got Jason Allen, you got Montez Sweat, you got all these guys. And, you know, for the most part, Brady was unscathed.

He didn't get killed in this game. But the big thing is, you know, to me, when I've watched over the years, the way to get to Tom, they were rushing from like the outside. And then Tom Brady does that thing where he like, he feels the pocket. He steps up in the pocket and he can still make a pass. Right. Whenever we've talked about, oh, Brady under pressure, Brady under pressure, it's always guys flying up the middle. Right. it's always like them pushing the pocket back and it's into his face like collapsing the pocket.

And I kind of felt like, yeah, their defensive line is awesome, but they kind of just played it almost like it created this circle around him where his guys were able to block long enough. And then he takes his step up into the pocket, you know, Chase Young or whoever like reaches out to grab him. They might get a paw on him. They might not. But the way to like get to him in, you. years past, like you remember when teams have given him any trouble, is to just collapse that thing from the front of it. And it'll be interesting to see if that's what the Saints do. But, you know, for all the talk about the defense of the, at defensive line of Washington,

I was kind of surprised that they didn't get, cause him more problems because he was just, I mean, I thought he was playing, playing free, you know, the whole game. Yeah, you hit on the two biggest points for this game for me, and that is obviously I was very impressed and surprised by Taylor Heineke's performance. And you're right up until at least Wednesday, the thought is that Alex Smith was going to play this game. And then he doesn't practice on Thursday. And so now it seems realistic that Heineke could be the guy. But it still wasn't known that early in the week that it definitely was going to be his job when he took all the first snaps on Thursday. That was the first time.

I was like, okay, maybe this is what they're really going to go with here. Certainly impressive performance. But you're 100% right. The whole storyline, if you were betting on Washington in this game, we could talk about right side or wrong side or all of these different things. But I believe that the people, and I didn't bet on Washington or on Tampa Bay. I just bet Tampa Bay to score more than 13 and a half in the first half, which they did. That was a pick that House was on our show for.

the for the weekend. But you were expecting that Washington was going to step up defensively. You probably weren't expecting that Washington is scoring 23 points here. You probably aren't expecting that Taylor Heineke looks as good as he did. What you're banking on is that the Washington defensive line is going to get pressure on Tom Brady. And that did not happen whatsoever, like for most of the game on plays that matter. You would think if they're successful, there's not time for that Antonio Brown thing to even develop. I just stepped up in the pocket and freaking launched it.

And it's like Antonio Brown's running free between the, you know, the corner and the safety. And it's like typically you would think like you're speeding that up. I mean, that's, you know, he's got, what, 10 seconds to stand back there and then load up and throw that ball. I do think that the Bucks were lucky in a sense that their run game was as efficient as it was because they ran the ball far too much for my liking as well. And that's going to be interesting to see if they continue that against the Saints who have a top three run defense.

Because as you know, we went on this whole story and it was a story leading into this game was Tampa Bay's running the ball way too much, taking the ball out of Tom Brady's hands on first downs in the first quarter and the first half of games. So far the season up until week 14. And then they have the final three weeks of the season and they switch to 67, 68 percent pass on these first down plays. entrusting Tom Brady on these first downs in the first half of games to lead them as far as they're going to go. I was hoping that they would actually flip that switch as opposed to it being based upon the defense that you're playing because you were giving Tom Brady protection. And what do you think the best time to pass the ball on a team that has a good pass rush? It's not going to be on third and obvious passing situations. It's going to be typically on first down

where the defense has to play run or pass. So maybe eventually they'll catch on that these guys are passing the ball all the time on first down. But to start that game, Washington is probably playing the run on first down and you drop back and pass it. Probably going to see some success. But the reality was the first downs in the first three quarters of this game, Tampa goes 58% run. So they're taking the ball out of Brady's hands. I didn't really like their past concepts. This game was one because Tom Brady shined on third down passes.

But on early downs in those first three quarters, he only went 11 to 23. That's 43% success. 7.7 yards per attempt is not very efficient football on early downs in the first three quarters. I just did not care for their pass concepts all that much. But man, on third downs, they went 100% pass. He converted 60% of them. He threw the ball for 10.6 yards per attempt, multiple explosive passes. I just felt like overall they ran too much.

They called 19 run plays to 23 passes. They were lucky that's on early downs in the first three quarters. And they're lucky that their runs average 5.2 yards per carry with 53% success. It worked out. Good for them. They advance. But when you're playing the Saints, if you choose to run that way and if it's working, that's fine.

That's the thing like coaches need to adjust. If something's working, that's fine. Belichick was obviously, and I go back to this story often, but Belichick was the master. Anytime he goes up against the team, even if it's got a good pass rush, his philosophy was, and I agree, like if you got pressure up the middle with just four, you're going to have success against Brady. Yeah, you'll have success against every other quarterback, too, by the way. But you can wear out that pass rush.

Well, you won't against like the Mahomes is and the Mars, though. That's the difference. Brady can't run away from that rush. those we've got a whole slew of quarterbacks at the NFL now that if you rush them up the middle they can run to the corner they run how many times did god damn how many times did josh allen sprint towards the sideline it's still complete a pass 25 yards down the field it's crazy oh yeah no it's it's it's impressive but when i mean you can wear them down i just mean if you attempt 50 passes even if you're not sprinting all over the place that d line from rushing you over and over and trying to beat that defender and get to the quarterback is very different than just trying to stop a run play. And you can wear those guys down just by making them rush the quarterback over and over and over and over and over again. And what Belichick would always do is he tried to run the ball against a decent run

defense, the first drive of the game. And if that didn't work, maybe he tested the second drive. After that, boom, Brady's just throwing the ball 50, 45, 50 times, 50 attempts. And that's what we used to bet the overs on. Anytime we saw a good run defense that Belichick was playing, especially in the playoffs, we would bet the over on Brady pass attempts. I mean, and it was just, it was just stealing money. It was just stealing money.

But I'm just curious to see what they're going to do against the Saints because the Saints have a good run defense and a good pass rush. And we know Tampa has had very little success against the Saints so far this season. So that game is going to be fascinating. But that whole Lattimore versus Mike Evans thing, because we just did this again with. Jalen Ramsey shutting down D.K. Metcalf again. Like, Lattimore's just had this guy's number where Mike Evans just hasn't done anything.

And if you're taking Mike Evans out of the deal, then this may be the reason that they were willing to sign Antonio Brown. You know, like you were saying, Warren, you would think if you're Tampa, now you're the one that makes all the adjustments. Just like you were talking about with Baltimore, you're the one that makes all the adjustment. You just say, fine. this ain't like you kicked our ass but you ain't kicking our ass like this again you know right and so like derrick henry ain't kicking our ass and so you just decide this guy is not running the ball if ryanneal beats us then so be it but this guy is not running the ball on us and right you would hope that tampa and bruce arians that that's what they put together a situation where it's like

all right you you beat our ass the last time but that's not happening if you beat our ass it's not going to be that way. You know? Yeah. And the early money, the early money has definitely been coming in on Tampa Bay, buying up the, I think there's some fours, three and a halfs. The line's now down to three. The Saints are favored at home by three. Obviously, less of a crowd impact than typical for a Saints home playoff game. And I don't call it in prime time. I don't know what you consider a 640 kickoff, but that's what they do on the Sundays of this divisional round. And even the championship round is staggered, a 3 p.m. Eastern and a 640 kick. So it's, it's going to be a great game. I don't normally love watching divisional games in this round, but I think it's going to be a ton of,

a ton of fun, a very competitive game. And both these coaches are going to have to be on their games. And I, I just got to say from an adjustment perspective and from a pure coaching perspective, like, look, I love Bruce Aaron's no risk, no biscuit, no biscuit. I used to like the stuff that he was doing in Pittsburgh and in Arizona. But, I don't know. I think the guy who's going to be the superior masterclass here from a coaching perspective and adjustment perspective would have to be Sean Payton. So the bucks are going to have to do some creative things here to overcome the mismatch

that has naturally existed when these teams face each other both times this season. Yeah, well, Sean Payton, great coach, Tom Brady, great quarterback. They also have fallen on their face many times. in playoff situations. They don't get the same kind of beating that other teams do, right? They lost a freaking case kingdom. They lost that beast mode game

to a losing, you know, a seven and nine, or eight and eight, whatever it was, Seahawks team. I mean, they've had some playoff losses, you know, here, have the Saints. So, I mean, it's not like he is the end all, be all every time. And Breeze, I mean, Warren.

I'm not so sure. The ball, it looks like it's going 30 miles an hour when he throws it. Like, you know, I mean, it's just a difference. Like Russell Wilson, he threw one to D.C. I swear he hit D.K. Meckhaff in the face 10 times this year, throwing like 98 mile per hour fastballs at his hand. He hit him in the face again on Sunday. And then you flip over and you watch it, ball just looks so slow from Breeze.

And I know he's been to hell and back with the 11 broken ribs and whatever else. But I don't know. Brady looked a lot better to be at his age than Breeze did at his age. There's no doubt. Well, it'll be interesting to see what we get from Breeze because the game against the bears definitely left some things to be, I guess we'll discuss that at the last game of the show here. Okay. All right.

Let's get to Indianapolis and Buffalo. This was the best game of the weekend, entertainment-wise. You know, the bills, they were, they got down early to the Colts. Colts came out and played extremely well. This was not a massive Jonathan Taylor game. You know, and I think that some people thought that, you know, that could be a real key for the Colts going against the, going against the bills.

You know, I'm sure there's a couple, there's a couple Red Zone trips that the Colts would love to have bad. I felt, I felt like the Bill's defense was not great that the Colts moved that ball. up and down the field the whole damn game and that if I'm one of those two teams I don't feel like the bills left a bunch of points out there I do feel like the Colts left a bunch of points out there like that in a different you reap if you redo that thing would they have at least two or three red zone trips where they came up you know was zero right oh yeah they had five trips

and they only converted twice yeah that's crazy so I mean you got three three red zone trips was zero I mean they clearly they left a lot of points out out there, or they could have gotten a pretty damn good road win. So very competitive, I thought generally well-played game. Biggest takeaways from Bill's Colts. For me, you can't start anywhere other than you already mentioned the one point, so I'm going to start with another one, and that's the field position for the Buffalo Bills.

I mean, it's the one thing that I think can get overlooked when you're just looking at the final statistics of this game is starting field position. Most of the time, you don't really have to worry about. analyzing that. You don't know if to think about it too much. But in this particular game, it's a big factor because as much as I would love that coaches call plays the same way, regardless if they're backed up or not, they tend to play a little bit more conservatively. And the Buffalo Bill started all five of their drives in the first half, backed up at or inside of their own 15-yard line, whereas the Indianapolis Colts had their six-shoulds.

drives of the first half started at least at the 35, except for the opening one of the game, where they started at the 25, at least at the 35 or closer to the bill's end zone. I mean, the bills started at their three-yard line, their four-yard line, their six-yard line, they're 11, and they're 15. Now, three of those drives, they punted the ball, but remarkably two of those drives, the drives that they had the worst starting field position, well, rather One was at the four. They drove 96 yards and scored a touchdown. And one, they started at their 15.

They drove 85 yards and scored a touchdown. I think one of those drives, they had a bunch of, like, ridiculous third down conversions. Josh Allen was, like, throwing it to guys who were tiptoeing along the sideline and just some remarkable catches there. But, you know, it's just difficult to overcome such field position disparity. the Colts in part due to their great starting field position. Look at these drives that they had to start the game. They drove to the Bill's one yard line, the Bill's four yard line, the 12, the 15, the 40 and the 47, and they showed 10 points for it. 10 points out of drives, four of them inside the 15 yard line and two of them both in the Bill's territory.

The Colts had 10 drives in the game, get rid of one that they, I think they kneeled down on it to end the half or something. They drove every single time to the Bills territory. Every single drive went into the Bills territory. Again, they had great starting field position so that obviously helps. But very, it's hard to believe. So how do we look at that? Do we look at that as the Bills? Oh, well, Ben, but don't break.

Or do we look at it like, Jesus, Colts, how do you not score like way more points of that? That it's very troublesome that they gave up drive after drive after that the Colts were. That's the, I guess this is the philosophical question. Do we look at that and say, boy, that Bill's defense is way susceptible and a better team's going to, you know, make them pay? Or do we look at it like that's a, you know, bend don't break? You know what I mean? When it matters most, this is. the team that can step up and get the stops they need to. I don't, I don't really,

I don't really love the bend, but don't break element because I think that there's a lot of variance in red zone production and whether a play gets caught in the end zone or not. I mean, whether a guy gets stopped at the one yard line or doesn't, the fourth down pass where Rivers is back peddling and throws it like an inch out of Michael Pittman's hands. Like, you know, trying to be predictive and say, well, they didn't score. So that's because the bills were so great. Like, I don't really love looking at that. What I will say is from an offensive perspective, offenses, some offensive coordinators just have damn good play calls inside of the red zone.

And some offenses just have quarterbacks who can run the football. And if something breaks down, they can get yardage out of it inside the red zone or score touchdowns. Or they have playmakers, right, massive mismatches, like a great number one wide receiver or a tight end like Kelsey that's just hard to match up against him. So some offenses, it's a little bit more predictive. I think red zone defense in general, some are going to be better than others. Some go on better runs and stretches and the way that they call plays. But for the most part, it's a little bit more variance in red zone defense.

I think the bill's defense has improved. But I do believe that the Colts left a lot out on the field because of their own play calling and some of the conservative nature of it. I was tweeting out during the game about some of the run plays that the Colts were calling and they were a little bit too predictable with some of their play calls, in my opinion. I also feel like there are times when the Colts and Frank Reich get a little bit too, I think they believe that their defense is a little bit better than what it really is.

And so they get too conservative or complacent offensively with some of the play calls thinking that it's okay, our defense is good. It's kind of like the Mike Rable thing, right, where he punted the ball and said, like, well, we were playing field position and we felt good about what our defense had been doing. It's like, dude, your defense stinks for the most, like this whole season. Yeah, they played a little bit better here, but that doesn't necessarily mean you're going to have success enforcing another punt. So, yeah, that was my takeaway. I think it was a little bit more on the Colts and their play calling and their execution than it was on the Bill's defense.

Okay. With that being said, do you think that they are susceptible to Baltimore then? Does Baltimore have to go on the road and get the bills into a 23 to 17 game? Or could Baltimore go on the road and score 30 points, 35 points, whatever it would take. You know what I'm saying? Is there any path to Baltimore winning that is not just ball control field position? There is, but it seems like the more likely scenario for them is like we're going to see a ceiling of around 24 to 27 points. So they've got to hold Buffalo to less than that.

They've got to blitz Josh Allen, got to apply the pressure. They've got to confuse his reads. And you got to make sure that he's not able to run the football, like with his legs. And if you could do that and you minimize Buffalo's upside from a point production standpoint, then you're going to be in this game. And you're okay if you don't score a ton of points. I think it would be difficult for Buffalo to win, sorry, for Baltimore to win this game in a shootout, unless Sean McDermann's defense just cannot freaking tackle Lamar Jackson or the running backs in this game.

I mean, if they have struggled to tackle those guys, then you get some big explosive plays. And the one weak point, and this was a prop I took, was the over the longest rushing attempt for Jonathan Taylor. But the one weak point for the Buffalo Bills is their run defense and specifically, they rank 30th in the NFL at allowing explosive. runs, runs that gain big yardage on first down in that game, the entire game. The Indianapolis Colts had five explosive runs on their first down play calls. So, I mean, that allows a team to think, okay, we'll run the ball a little bit here and there, but maybe we'll break a big one. And they had a couple guys that broke 20 plus yard runs on first down.

So I've got to be looking at Dobbins props. Yet longest rushing attempt for Dobbins is probably a good one. to look at, yes. Well, he's also scored a touchdown at seven straight games. Yep, I like that one. That's one I took as well last game. Yeah, I read this morning, seven straight games, a long is a rookie, the only other rookie to do it for that long.

I guess he could break the record this weekend was Maurice Jones Drew of all people. I will tell you, though, in terms of this game, I was on the over. I took over 51 and like, I felt extremely unlucky to have pushed on 51 because, of all the red zone inefficiencies that the Colts failed with. And then the Buffalo Bills had the ball backed up in their territory. So many times they had to drive the entire length of the field just to score. That does not typically happen in a game. The walking away with no points, I just mentioned four trips inside the 15 and you walk

away with 10 total points. Like that typically does not happen. So I felt very unlucky. But this next game, I think there's a different vibe, a different feel for it, because of how Baltimore may choose to play offensively and their defense matching up against Josh Allen's offense. You can blame your

glasses wearing brethren Rodriguez blanket ship. I mean, at the very least you've got to get three more, right? That was a, that was a dinky field goal to hit the post on. It wasn't like a it wasn't like a 48 yard or something,

you know, like that was terrible. I still can't believe it. He was awesome in Georgia too. I mean, good kicker. I don't know what was going on. And he hits a big... Don't trust kickers. Just by nature, don't trust them. Or guys are glasses, right? There you go. We're both wearing them right now. So what is that saying? You can trust guys of glasses. Ram Cahawks. Pete Carroll said, oh boy, this is the anti-war and charm. Oh, good Lord. They lose the game. Pete Carroll says, we got to get back to running the ball. We have got to get back to running the ball.

all this uh you know and and i guess uh this is a this is a personal affront to let russ cook isn't it p carols gets done with this season he says we gotta get we got to get back the run of the ball or i don't even know what to say this is this is what keeps you up at night well yes it does it does when you have a quarterback like russell wilson it does when you have a quarterback i mean after their week 10 loss to the rams and they lost back to back games the seahawks decided to to get rid of this early down pass trend, weeks one to 10, they were the number one highest pass rate in the NFL

on early downs in the first half. They average a 64% pass rate tops, 9.6 yards per temp, 61% success. Great, great numbers. From week 11 onward, they drop all the way down to 57% pass, which ranked 13th in the NFL. We're not talking they went completely run heavy,

but they made this shift. Their passes average just six, yards per attempt, 57% success. And we saw it that like the life was almost drained out of them. Right. It's it's like they thought that they were helping themselves, but they drained the life out of them. When in reality, what they really needed to figure out is how to pass the ball against two high safeties, as opposed to just say, well, screw that. Let's just run the football. Right. Like if if it's so easy that a defense can just play two high safeties against you, And that'll force you to decide who need, what are we going to do with D.K.

Metcalf? Oh, my God, they're in two eye safeties. We're just going to have to run the ball, I guess. I mean, if this is the philosophy, then, you know, just pack it up. Trade D.K. Metcalf to somebody else and just say, hey, let's get a better running game going because we want to run the ball more. And defenses figured us out. We can't defeat two eye safety.

So we're just going to run the ball a lot more. I mean, that is not the model of success. in the NFL. I don't think very many teams in the modern era would have success saying, well, we just have no idea how to beat this defense. We can come up with no offensive concepts that are going to have any level of success. So we're just going to turn to the run. I mean, that is a losing formula for the future. And especially if you've got a quarterback like Russell Wilson. Now, Russell Wilson regressed over the second part of the season, it was a little odd because sometimes you see Russ regress a tiny bit because of his injuries, right?

Like something might have compounded. He got nicked. He got hit. He's got some type of an injury. We really didn't see that here. It was just like the lifeblood got drained out of him, the confidence in this offense. And I know you could say, like, well, why do you got to set a guy up to get a guy in rhythm? Why do you got, he's a veteran?

Why would his confidence leave? I mean, quarterbacks are like kickers, man. You got to fucking massage these guys. You got to figure out ways. to keep these guys confident and optimistic and, and let them throw the ball on early downs to feed into that type of stuff. Like, you got to give these guys the belief that they have the capacity to win every single game.

They step out on the field for us and we're entrusting them to do that. But it's not all on their shoulders will step up with you. But when you go to like, when you neuter these guys and you take the pass away and you don't want them throwing the ball on early downs, you don't want to throw them the ball down the field, I mean, it affects them, even guys clearly, it affects them, even guys as good as Russell Wilson, who was like a leading candidate for MVP over the first half of the season or right up there one or two in terms of the betting odds. So, yeah, I don't.

Okay, I know what you're saying about two hive safeties, but let's just, let's just, let me just flip the script on the whole. All right, you remember how we were talking about the Titans and the Ravens, okay? And if you're the Ravens, you sit there and you say, this guy just ran all over our face and knocked us out of the playoffs last year. This ain't happening. And I know you're saying the two high safeties thing, but would you imagine that the coaching staff from Seattle would say,

hey, Warren, look, I get it. After week 10, here's what happened. Well, also after week 10, here's how everybody started, this is the defense we were looking at when we're on first and second down, where teams are saying, hell or high water, if they beat us running, they beat us running. but they are not throwing the ball to get him going and to move it down the field. And so everybody leveled up to stop our passing on early downs.

We didn't just stop for fun. And that's why I'm saying we have got to be able to run the ball. Because if we can't run the ball when they're trying to stop the pass, then what the hell? Like, you know what I'm saying? Like, they got to, this is a pick your poison. Like if the defense is going to set up so that Russell Wilson can't get going and he can't just be throwing for 10 yards, you know, a possession on first down, then we have to be able to run the ball or else what, how are we supposed to move the ball down the field? You know?

You're you're right to an extent. But what I would argue is that if you can do, if you know the most efficient route, your team is is good pass. you got Russell Wilson, you got D.K. McCaff, you got Tyler Lockett. And a defense is just able to say, like, we're just going to play this coverage. And so now you, now you're just going to run the football. I mean, like, you still have to figure out a way to beat that coverage. Figure out what to do through passing the ball because by taking away Russell Wilson and your receivers, you're playing right into that defensive hand.

So you need to, yes, you need to be better at running the football, execute when you run the ball better. But what do we really need to improve? Is it really our run game or is it maybe our protection or is it maybe some of the schemes that we're using offensively? Like there are in terms of the passing game. Well, and the devil's advocate would be, yes. Yes, we need to improve our run game because we cannot make it so that teams don't have to set up to stop our run but can still stop our run.

Well, look, sometimes teams were playing Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs very soft. they would run the ball and have success, but they still would go down the field when they needed to. Their passing game was still efficient. It's just they didn't throw it down the field quite as often. They were working other areas. So you obviously want to find the fastest path to victory, attack the voids in a defense,

attack their weaknesses. So if they're playing so weak that it becomes more plus EV to run the football a little bit more than you were doing, then go ahead and do that. All I'm saying is the solution, to winning in 2021, I would be shocked if it's, well, we're okay if our pass offense isn't good against too high. And we know they're going to use too high. So let's just write off the fact right now that our pass offense will be good. We will win in 2021 because we have a better run game.

That you cannot approach the offseason with the plan that we're going to run more and just improve our run game. And that's how we will win next year, even if you neuter our past game with your coverage. You have to figure out better ways to pass the football against those coverages that are giving you problems. Well, it's a hard team to pass against because that Rams defensive line is problematic. And their secondary, I mean,

and their adjustments, like that defensive coordinator has far exceeded my expectations. I think my expectations were just unknown. I didn't think too highly of him because I knew nothing about. him. He had been a linebacker's coach for a couple years in the NFL. Nobody really knew anything about him. Massive kudos in this instance, Dushan McBay for identifying that he's the guy to come in here and do these things. But my God, he's been, Brandon Staley has been absolutely

incredible as a defensive coordinator. And there was a lot to be gained from a betting perspective if you picked up on that early on in the season. Because his halftime adjustments have been absolutely incredible down the stretch in so many games this season. I mean, look, it's not a bad defense to have to coordinate, though, when you've got maybe Troy Aitman called him the best defensive players ever seen in his life in Aaron Donald. And Jalen Ramsey, who routinely shuts down the best receiver. I mean, I say that as someone who, you know, whose favorite team just hired Dan Quinn, who gets credit for leading the Legion of Boom.

Like, okay. Like, I'm glad you like the Legion of Boom. When you got Camp Chancellor and Bobby Wagner and Richard Sherman, I mean, seriously, it's kind of like how everybody I saw last night, everybody was, and I don't want to take anything. Everybody goes crazy over Steve Sarkesian. And I'm like, Jesus Christ. Are you guys watching the same thing? I am? Like, you could have a, you could have the TechMobile play sheet in Alabama.

Well, I don't know. I still think it, I still think it takes two to tango. and he used a lot of creative offensive concepts that were a joy to watch. So it takes, if you have the players, I think the bottom line with Alabama, and I'm not really a college guy, but if you have the players like they do and then you have an offense coordinator like that, then, yeah, forget about it. They did it with Lane Kiffitt too. Like, you know what I mean?

They'll put up points. And then Jamackle Wade or whatever. I can be, it's the best place to all I'm saying is when you got amazing players like that, they're great places to coordinate. A hundred percent agree. You got to really be a dummy. You know, but in fairness, he does maximize it. It sounds like it's Bill O'Brien up next, I think.

Oh, well, they'll save his career too. Look, that's where, look, look at the guys who have done it. It's been Lane Kiffin, who everybody thought sucked. Steve Sarkeesian, who everybody thought sucked. And now it'll be Bill O'Brien. He'll revive his career. And people will be talking about him as an offensive genius within two years, because he scores 50 points a game with Alabama.

Like, who couldn't, right? Yeah. Last one. Saints. Oh, by the way, do you think the Rams defense, is that good enough to go and travel and, you know, be a big problem for Green Bay? Okay.

So let me just throw this out here for future discussion. I have a future on the Rams. Oh. I bet the future at 11 to 1 odds to win the, Super Bowl the week before Jared Goff breaks his finger. So afterwards, after he breaks his finger, his thumb, rather, my bet looks terrible, right? My bet looks terrible. The odds are like 30 to 1 at some point, and I'm kind of writing it off. But I saw that for the one of the reasons I bet the Rams to win the Super Bowl. There's only two futures I have going. The Rams and the Chiefs

at 4 to 1 over on the AFC. So those are the only two that I, even bet of teams to win the Super Bowl this year. And I did both during the season. I didn't do any pre-flop. But when you look at the Rams, I felt like they match up well with the Seahawks. And I felt like they match up well with the Packers. You stick Ramsey on Devante Adams. You get Aaron Donald causing pressure in the interior for Aaron Rogers. I just felt like that that matchup was really good. Obviously, I don't love it. So number, one, when you have futures, you can hedge them. I decided not to hedge at all against the Seahawks. I just kept the ticket. We did not bet off that game whatsoever. We felt like the Rams had a good

enough chance to beat Seattle in Seattle last week. So we just kept the ticket. It's basically like betting the Rams money line, except you have a much higher opportunity there with the payday. So we let it roll. I'm not sure yet what we're going to do heading into this game. But I like I like the matchups. What I don't like, obviously, is a quarterback with a broken finger and going into freezing cold Lambo field with that broken finger. Would you feel better? Would you feel better about your future if they said John Wolford starting this weekend? No, I wouldn't. I'd much rather have golf. I think that the Seahawks, when they saw Goff come in there, they tuned it up themselves offensively. They're like, all right, we're not going to be able to keep doing all this, all this lame stuff

on offense because they were so content with just running the ball and punting and playing it so soft. They started getting a little bit more aggressive when they saw Goff come in there. Goff, I think the announcer said it, but one out of every five passes, you're like, what in the world was that? But, you know, he was actually not terrible. And some of his throws on the other passes pushing the ball down the field, you would think with the week extra, but it's hard to forecast all of that. You just get the, I know, you know, maybe you just get the whole Cam Acres show again.

Well, I think that's one of the ways that you. He was their whole office. Yeah. You're going to have to have a good productive run game here for sure. Yeah, he was, what did they say? At one point, they were like, the Rams have 180 total yards, 154 of them or Cam Acres. I was like, Jesus. Yeah.

He's got a workforce. That's why I think they were resting him late. but you also have Cooper Cup who got banged up and left the game early and went to the locker room. You got Jared Gough dealing with a broken thumb. You got Cam Acres who was just used a ton last week. It's going to be a tall task, but I think structurally they match up pretty well with the Green Bay Packers. It'll be really interesting to see when I dive deeper into that game what my opinions are at that point. Yeah, I know you and House are going to be talking about all the games coming up this weekend,

but I will just ask you one last one because we didn't. We talked briefly about the Saints and the Bears. look, I told you, Breeze, I was not very impressed. That game sucked. You know, Javon Wims, you know, drops that ball in the end zone. And it's like I really feel like that's a different game if he catches that ball. I do. Yeah.

I really do. Yeah. Belief, you have life. You feel like. It was like seven to three, right? Well, that game like seven to three. Yeah. And you, and you feel, you feel, I mean, like football is an emotional sport.

And a lot of times when we're looking at numbers and math and. data, you take out some of that stuff and you're just looking at the raw information. But when you're really trying to forecast betting and winning games and things of that nature, you have to start accounting for ebbs and flows a little bit when you're talking about betting and live wagering sometimes, but also just with the matchups, like I feel like if they catch that ball, they then have this belief. And when it goes through their hands, at that point in time, they're suddenly thinking like, this is just Not our day. Like, if we caught that, this is our day and it's not our day.

And it's hard to say that because, like, I am not necessarily a massive believer in momentum in sports and things of that nature. But having played the game myself, not football, but other sports, and I'm sure you as well, like competitively played the game at pretty high levels, like you understand when you're playing it, the momentum element of it. You understand when you feel like you guys cannot be stopped. you've got these guys, this stuff is working that you're using against them. Like, it just feels great.

Well, the other thing is they took the shot that, like, they saved that play and Trubisky nailed it. He threw a friggin dime. Like, I mean, you, you could, you could throw that ball a thousand times and maybe not throw it that perfect. Like, right in stride. All the guy has to do is all it in. That's it.

I don't know who installed that play, whether it was Bill Laser, their new OC. or their OC who's now calling plays or for some Matt Nagy, but whoever did a great play to install great time to call it, well executed except for the catch. I mean, what can we say? But anyway, that Saints offense,

man, I like their defense a lot of warren, but I certainly do not like their offense. And the big question is, and what does history tell us about this? The team that, you know, they played each other twice, we know the Saints have beaten their ass twice, is that how meaningful is that leading into this game against Tampa in your mind?

Do those regular season results matter a great deal? Well, I think there are some teams that you just match up well against or you don't. And the Baltimore game was unique because Baltimore outplayed those guys. The first game in the playoffs for Baltimore versus the Titans was just like completely Baltimore got into this, we're down so big early. Now we just have to pass the ball. And that's not really a great game to look at. In the second game, although Baltimore lost it in overtime, Baltimore was up at the half. Baltimore had a lot of success. They weren't punting the ball much. So like you felt, I felt a little bit stronger about this particular game. It's like, okay, yeah, the final score wasn't really as

indicative of the way the game was actually being played. In these games, though, the final score was very indicative of the way that these games are being played in terms of one team matches up really well against the other team from a personnel and exes and those like the matchups of the individual players against their opponents definitely favors the New Orleans Saints here. So there are obviously paths to victory for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They can't make mistakes. But I mean, I don't know. It's a challenge to look at this game.

You really have to believe, I think, if you're going to be back. backing Tampa Bay in this spot or expecting them to win this game, that the saint's offense is not what it was in those meetings. The Saints Drew Breeze isn't quite the same. Michael Thomas isn't all the way back. Drew maybe can't throw the ball down the field. Like whatever it is, you've got to convince yourself that this offense for the Saints isn't quite as good because this defense has been very consistent and seems to show up. And I think they've got a great strategy for how to beat you. either you hope that the Saints offense isn't as good or you're changing things on your own

offense to attack these guys very differently than you did in the prior couple of meetings. All right. Last thing, because you focus on coaches, week in, week out, and the decisions they make. Do you think Philly was right in getting rid of Doug Peterson? Or do you think that that's a mistake? Oh, man, that is so tough because I don't know exactly what went on behind the scenes there. And I think it had to do just reading the media clippings with wanting to promote personnel

from within and the ownership wanting to see some bolder ideas and new things maybe introduced that were not there the prior years when the team didn't, you know, do anything in the postseason. Like I think they've they've tasted the Super Bowl, right? It's different for a team that hasn't tasted the Super Bowl, but they've tasted a Super Bowl. but they've tasted a Super Bowl. They believe they have one, if not, I mean, maybe two. I don't know what their thoughts are, franchise type quarterbacks.

I know you really don't like Carson Wentz, but I'm sure they, that's the reason they paid him all this money. They still believe that they've got guys who could take that step, and they want to do something in this window now. They don't want to just keep waiting. And even though there's been playoffs, they want to see something a little bit more.

they want to feel more confident in the process, I believe. And I guess that's why they made the decision. We will find out if it was the right one or not. I mean, I think in this case, it's a very results oriented business. And it's hard to hire a coach and you go for a defensive oriented coach and you could be losing your offense coordinator slash offensive system within a couple of years. You go with an offensive coach. There are a few downsides to that as well.

You've got to find the right guy. and then he's wearing a lot of hats. Somebody's got to salvage Wentz. They have no choice to make, right? And it felt like that they had, you know, that ship had sailed on the Peterson-Winth thing, right? So now it's the choice to make. And the other thing is I told you earlier in the year,

that when you, when something doesn't go your way, when you spend a lot of money and it doesn't go your way, that's going to be, it's either the GM or the coach and you're going to find out who wins the argument with the owner. I remember, yep. You're right. And you know, I mean, because that's what happens. I mean, I've covered losing teams.

They go, they walk in, they have their meeting and they say, the coach says, we don't have good enough players to win. And the GM says, we got plenty of players to win. This guy stinks. It's his fault. And then so it's like somebody has to, you know, get the axe for losing, right? And their offense was, you know, bottom of the pack this year. Right.

No doubt. And they spent the 14. and on a team that didn't do anything. It looks like Howie Roseman won that one. That's for sure. Warren, enjoy the games this weekend. I can't wait to hear you in house preview all of them later this week. Thanks, brother.

Thanks, Chris. That's going to do it for another edition of the Ringer NFL show. I do want to remind all of you that coming up this weekend, there is going to be another edition of the live recaps right after the games. following the final game Saturday and Sunday, the Ringer NFL show is going to be going back live on Saturday. You can watch Kevin Clark and Ryan Rissillo. And on Sunday, Kevin Clark and Nora Prenciotti,

they will be breaking down every playoff matchup. Make sure you're subscribed to the Ringer's YouTube channel at YouTube.com slash the Ringer and following at Ringer NFL on Twitter.