The Ringer NFL Show - The 49ers Shake Up the NFL Draft by Trading Up to No. 3

Episode Date: March 26, 2021

The NFL draft officially started today. The 49ers have traded with the Dolphins for the no. 3 pick in the draft. We debate which QB San Francisco is targeting, address the rumors it may be Mac Jones, marvel at Miami’s front office excellence, predict how the draft will play out, and more. Hosts: Kevin Clark and Nora Princiotti Guests: Danny Kelly and Bill Simmons Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On R2C2, C-2, C-Sabathia and Ryan Rucco guide listeners through everything going on in the MLB, NBA, and NFL. They also talk to friends, athletes, and celebrities about the world of sports, and much more. Check out R2C2 with C-C-Sabathia and Ryan Ruko on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It is the Ringer NFL show, part of the Ringer Podcast Network. I'm Kevin Clark. Emergency Edition. The draft has exploded. Danny Kelly just slacked me that his mock draft has been changed.

Those are the best words in the U.S. language. Join by Danny Kelly, Nora Prince, I. and Bill Simmons, what's going on, guys? What's up? What's up, Cab? Hello. Hi, Bill. So, as I said, this was a, the big, this, the draft started today.

Okay, so if you don't know, here are the trades. The dolphins traded number three overall to San Francisco for the number 12, a 2021 third round pick, a first round pick in 2022 and 20203. The Eagles then traded for that sixth pick. They swapped the six for 12 and they get a 2022 first round pick. They also swapped mid-round picks, 156 for a, four. for 123. This has so many ramifications for the entire league.

Obviously, I think we all know at this point that one and two are going to be Trevor Lawrence and then Zach Wilson. But then after that, everything is in play. Chris Sims, who was very close with the Niners organization tweeted out the Mac Jones is in play. And now maybe Jim Garoppolo eventually becomes expendable. There's just so much here. Danny Kelly, you're the draft guru.

The Newmock draft will be up very soon. When you first heard this trade, you thought what? Well, my first reaction was, number one, whether it's Trey Lance or Justin Fields, because that feels like those are the two guys that San Francisco has in mind here. That was my first impression. And I love the fit for both of those guys. But then a lot of people started talking about Mack Jones. And if Mac Jones is the number three pick, that is like this massive agent of chaos for the entire rest of the draft. And so I guess my first reaction was, I really don't.

know who the quarterback is going to be here. I think I've narrowed it down in my mind to Trey Lance and Mack Jones. For some reason, I'm just like, I'm feeling like Justin Fields is not going to be the pick. And I think that is just, it's going to be a massive, massive question. If Mac Jones is number three, that is just going to throw everybody for a loop. So, it's going to be a lot of fun. Hold on. Can I jump in here? Do we feel like there's a possibility that Chris Sims is doing his friend, Kyle Shanahan, a favor by injecting Mac Jones chaos into our lives here. But why? They've got, we know what one and two is going to be. He basically has the first Samiscoe basically has the first pick in the draft now because we know what one and two is going to be.

Okay. So I don't think they need to put up smoke screens necessarily. It's the element of surprise. Just for drama. Maybe, maybe. Bill, stunning trade. Your thoughts. So stunning, I invited myself on the podcast. I love and respect what the dolphins have done the last couple years. Like to me, the biggest takeaway is we always, we sit on these podcasts. and we sit in front of our computers writing about these teams, and we're always telling them what they should have done. How dumb are they? I can't believe they didn't do this.

Why don't they do this? And the draft is like perfect for that, right? Like in the NBA draft, Phoenix took Jalen Smith 10th last year, but Tyrese Halliburton was the best value at the pick. And it's like, just trade down four picks, get other stuff. And so to see a team like Miami that over and over again has just nailed this and has been like, well, we don't need a quarterback. We should trade down.

What can we get? Well, we could get a lot of stuff, but we really want a receiver too. What if we trade back to 12? We'll pick up all these picks and then go back up to six. I feel like other than the two of Herbert decision, which could end up haunting them for the next 15 years, they've thrown like a perfect game with how to do a front office right down the coaching hire. So that was my big takeaway. A hundred percent, Bill.

And there's a couple of things about the dolphins, a particular to unpack. Number one, kind of like an NBA team. The dolphins, I know a bunch of people down there. And I remember talking to an employee down there. And they said they were stuck in the middle for so long. I mean, they were stuck in the middle for 20 years. I mean, they were talking about post-Marino. They never want to be stuck in the middle again.

And they know how to get to the top. And it's this. It's a patient rebuild. It's a ton of draft capital. It's not forcing your way into a trade. It's your old Billy Bean thing. If you have to do something, you're screwed. But they do not ever have to do something.

And obviously, look, a long-term tank is it can't last eight years. But you can be patient with this. The other part of this, and this would take another hour to unpack, is the Laramie-Tunzel gas mask bong scandal is now the biggest butterfly effect in the modern NFL. This is like he's the Franz Ferdinand of the modern NFL because that's how they ended up getting the number three pick. Obviously he wouldn't have dropped the dolphins. They get the number three pick there. Now the entire thing is reordered. The dolphins had assets and they played it exactly right. Nora, you obviously have covered some of these dolphins folks. You know Brian Floyd's really well. Is there is there a smarter

team right now in the 2021 draft? Probably not. I mean, they're they're up there. Right. If there's a handful of five really smart teams. They're absolutely one of them. And that tonsill deal, I think right now, it's four first round picks and a third, which is just unbelievable that they're able to spin something like that into that kind of takeaway. I don't want to rain on the parade here,

but I do have a question for Danny. From this perspective, in terms of how smart they've been, collecting assets, how do you see the second trade to move back up to six? Because I've got to be honest, that one I don't quite get. So I think what they're doing there is making sure that they get one of the elite pass catchers in this draft. And it's basically down to three guys. It's Jamar Chase, Kyle Pitts, who's a tight end, but he's basically a receiver, and Devante Smith.

So if you look at the way the draft is going to go, it's going to be Lawrence, number one, Wilson, number two, almost surely. It's what is pretty much locked in here. We got the 49ers taking a QB. Number four is a little bit up in the air with Atlanta. I think there's going to be another trade up there for a quarterback. I think Justin Fields is going to end up ultimately going at number four. Number five, you got the Bengals who are almost surely going to take a tackle, Penny Sewell.

Not almost surely, but everything points to that. Yeah. And so that gives the dolphins basically their chance to grab Jamar Chase. Now, if weird stuff happens and the Falcons pick a different position, the Bengals pick a different position, there's still three options there. They can get Chase, Pitts, or Devante Smith. So I think that's what they're doing is guaranteeing themselves a top-tier pass-catcher for their offense, which is what they need, to help Tua, like, improve in year two, all that stuff. And they're getting whatever they got in this trade, future picks to do, and they're still going to be guaranteed to pick a top-tier pass catcher, which I think they're playing on doing obviously at number three anyway.

So it's a savvy mood by them to pick up stuff and still get what they want out of that first pick. But isn't the question, could they have gotten the guy who fell to 12 and done that anyway without giving up the extra pick? So that's my point is that that's where you lose me a little bit, which is just that when you're doing this stuff for a pass catcher, it starts to get really hit or miss. Like, that's when the draft is the draft. It doesn't really, that's not the headline, though, because if they paid a premium that maybe they didn't need to to go back up to six, it's still only chipping away ever so slightly at what is ultimately making just a crazy. return out of ultimately like one player and then fewer draft picks than they ended up with. So they made out like bandits overall. Just that one thing I'm a little bit like, why are we doing this for a pass catcher?

Clark, this feeds into your whole big theory about teams devaluing first round picks and becoming like the NBA, right? This is now, these trades are just happening now three, four times a year. Well, I would also say as an extension of that, I think that people are a little bit on tilt because the quarterback's going to go off the board really early. So if you're a team like the Eagles and you're at six in any other year bill, it'd be like, oh, great, we can just get the fourth best quarterback. People are saying that the Falcon should trade out.

I think that you get into a situation where you start to realize, okay, we're not going to get this quarterback. We might as well get draft capital. I don't know of Hallie Roseman is still a top, top level GM. I used to think he was. He has not been the past 18 months. But I kind of like the long game here from the Eagles. Don't try to force a quarterback.

just try to get as much capital as you can. I like the big swings here. This is what I like about the modern NFL. Some of these younger GMs, maybe because they know the caps rising or whatever, overall over the next 10 years, all that stuff. It's just easier to take big swings. These are a bunch of big swings.

Danny, does this put more of a premium on the fourth pick now where they could potentially get three first rounders for that? Yeah, I mean, especially if a team has either Justin Fields or Mac Jones rated really highly. I think it's starting to feel to me like the NFL rates Mac Jones a lot higher than the media has been doing over the last few months. And so, yeah, I mean, basically the draft starts at three now, right? We don't know who that's going to be.

But really, that number four pick, like you said, they can hold it hostage and anyone who needs a quarterback is going to have to come up there and get it. Like Carolina, right? Carolina, Denver, maybe. But Carolina can go eight and whatever and move up to four in Atlanta. the reason I mentioned is... But Atlanta doesn't want to help Carolina. Right. So whatever is going to be a lot.

Yeah. Atlanta is not going to be eager to put a young elite quarterback in the division. Do you really believe that? Because I remember when Belichick traded blood so to Buffalo, he's like, cool, take him. Like, we'll beat you anyway. And he did. No, I was thinking, I was thinking maybe...

Everybody drank. If they look at the quarterbacks, you're like, actually the fourth quarterback is terrible. This is the deal we want to do now and just get that guy in the division. That could be a smart play. Yeah. Well, the reason I brought that up was because the Falcons, I think, are the best long shot Super Bowl bet right now. On Fandle, they're 60 to 1 right now. And you figure, like, they were in a lot of games. They easily could have been 7, 9, 8, 8, 9, and 7. They're bringing Matt Ryan back. They have some money to spend. And if they flip that fourth pick into the eighth pick and two other first rounders, whatever, like I do think they could be good right away.

I don't know. That might be very sure far. Bill, Jimmy Gropelman has become expendable. Is this a big day for you? So you'll be shocked to know I have some opinions on this and I've done some research. Why can't we just get Gardner Minshu? Don't laugh. Oh, I like that.

Have you looked at Gardner Minchew stats as a rookie on a pretty terrible Jaggs team who was six and six? last year he played hurt career he's played two years he's thrown 37 touchdowns and 11 picks he makes like five bucks an hour he's like the cheapest possible starting QB you could have Jacksonville's not going to keep him why would I pay a premium

for Garapolo when I could just patch it together with Minshu see if Cam if COVID really ruined him last year or what Nora you like you like where I'm going with this you would like the Gardner Minchu era I would like it but my whole thing with quarterbacks when you don't have one is just like throw darts at the

dartboard and acquiring Gardner Minchu is like the definition of throwing darts at the dartboard. Jimmy though, Jimmy's not that expensive anymore. Like, their upper limit when they were doing stuff with Brady and I know that's a different conversation, Patriots don't seem to be interested in paying more than like 20, 25 million

to a quarterback and at a certain point they're going to have to get over it. But that's where Jimmy is. Like, it's not that crazy. Grappalo's cap hits next two years are 26.4 and then 27. So it's not exactly a bargain. But for a veteran quarterback, like $30 million is now kind of reasonable for a second contract quarterback.

I'm pro-gardner Minshue. I would be into that. I have to tell you guys this, like two minutes after the second trade went down, I got an unknown, a call from an unknown Foxborough number and just was like staring at my phone going, you are not doing this to me right now. Like, I know this is spam, but I have to answer the phone right now. Was it spam? It was a hundred percent spam. It was like, you're a car warranty. And I was like, oh, screw you. I thought it was Bill. I was actually calling you that he was calling Carl Sannahan. I had two different Pat's fan text threads just ignited by this trade with Garapolo,

just figuring Garapolo is coming home. And the thing is, like, he did come within one overthrown pass of almost winning a Super Bowl. Like, it's not like,

you know, he certainly has better credentials than Gardner Minchew. I just think, I agree with Nora's darts against the dartboard philosophy. And it's like,

Minchu, Kim, you draft a guy in a third round. Maybe that's a better way to play it. Jimmy also, Jimmy's overrated because he drove Tom Brady insane.

Like, if Tom Brady had been chill about Jimmy Garoppelow, we would not think of him as as good and accomplished of a quarterback as we do. I will say he did make a Super Bowl as a quarterback. Yeah.

I do kind of feel like we glossed over that sometimes. And maybe it's not just the Brady. The Brady insanity. His numbers are pretty good, honestly. Yeah, I know. I feel like we rush to throw him in the trash can a lot. I still think he can provide some value.

Jenny, help me out here with the quarterback evaluation because obviously this whole thing Stemps and Corback violation. You talked about this on Twitter today. Justin Fields, who we thought was going to be a top four pick, is now apparently has gone from a top four pick to on some boards a fourth round pick. Take me through what the stock is and just take me through the pecking order league-wide on some of this stuff.

Because I honestly don't, this happens every draft where one guy just randomly is pegged as a mid-round guy. He used to be the second overall pick. Help me. So today, I've heard from both Dane Bruggo at the Athletic and Gil-Brand say that they, They've heard from teams that Justin Fields' stock right now is, it ranges from top five to round four, which I just think is absolutely absurd and dumb, that round four thing. Is there a parallel to this and drafts past, somebody having that wide of a range? I don't know.

I can't, I can't think of anything off the top of my head. That seems like a massive, massive thing. Mason Rudolph. Maybe, but that's crazy. It's always guys who get overdrafted. Like, I feel like the guys who get that profile, they never go in the fourth round. It always...

I don't want to make the analogy because they're completely different players, but I will say the one guy I remember who during his pro day and during the workouts, who just scouts started to just murder was Matt Liner. Like, that was a big one for people... I think that one day there was...

I remember reading it, I think I was in high school at this point, but I remember like scouts compared him to Steve Burloin. And it was like, oh, no, this can't be good. So it does happen But I would say that with Fields in particular I think and Dan, you can help me out here

I think there's an anti This is a weird thing to say But I do think there's an anti-Ohai state bias right now With quarterback. Yeah, yeah. I think so for, yeah, for sure. I mean, you've seen what happened with Haskins over the last couple of years.

I think the big concern with Fields is a lot of teams probably see a guy who doesn't go through his progressions quickly enough doesn't make decisions quickly enough. He did take quite a few sacks this year that maybe teams are a little bit scared off by that. But there's also

this idea and this fact that in their offense, they're asking him to wait a bit, let the routes develop downfield. They've got these options and routes that go downfield. And so that's what they're asking him to do. And so he's maybe getting negatively graded for that based on what he's actually supposed to be doing.

So I think it's definitely a nuanced and interesting discussion. I think it's crazy that he would be rated as a fourth round pick on anybody's board. But, you know, I also acknowledge that evaluating quarterbacks is damn near impossible. And so I just think it's going to be very interesting to see how this goes.

My first thought when the 49ers traded up was like, yes, perfect for fields. Because I really like fields. He's my number two guy on my board. But everything that we've seen in the last, like, hour is this is going to be Tray Lance. And then there's also some Mac Jones noise. So it doesn't feel like this is four fields. I do think it only takes one team that loves fields. And I think he ultimately is going to be a top five pick.

but he is definitely a controversial quarterback in this class based on, you know, those concerns. Danny, you'd like fields better schematically or Lance for Shanahan? I think it's, they have pretty similar skill sets in the sense that both guys have big arms. They're both accurate. Lance comes from a system that is pretty close to what the 49ers run, at least like, philosophically speaking. They're heavy offense. They do a lot of boot action, you know, downfield throws. So, like, I guess I can see why they might like Lance more.

But, like, at the same time, I think Fields is, his overall skill set and tools are better than Lances. That's how I feel. Nora, if you took over the GM job right now in San Francisco, who are you taking three? Fields. And I guess I have to second guess that now, but I just, I trust the skill set a little bit more. I think the Lance thing. I think the Lance thing. I mean, Bill, what do you think, you know, Daniel Jeremiah was on our podcast a couple months ago and he said,

this is going to be the first baseball draft, right? This is going to be the first draft where we're just taking guys because we saw them play a handful of games or they opted out last year. We're seeing that with Caleb Farley right now. Trey Lance played one game. When you look at this draft and just, again, almost comparing it to baseball,

where we've never had less information about a prospect. What do you do if you're a GM right now? Look, I know very little about college football when you have kids and you get older. Starts going by the wayside. Hockey. some certain tennis majors, and then eventually college football. But I do try to watch the big guys at least once.

Fields to me is like a no-brainer. Like his body and the fact that he can move around, the fact that he was playing on a big level, you know, I thought it was at least like Lawrence versus Fields would be like a fun debate. I knew Lawrence was going to win. But that's how I expected this draft thing to go. For people to be nitpicking him like this,

it really seems bizarre to me. Like, if he fell to the Patriots at 15, I honestly, I would, I might need medical treatment. They might have to, like, carry me out of my house. That would be the most exciting Patriots draft moment probably ever. So I just look at it that way. Like, please, I hope people keep picking them apart. Belichick, if he passed on fields, I would lose my mind.

I'm in total agreement with that. What else are you looking for from a quarterback? But Bill, I also think that there's part of it. We're talking about the Antio, Ohio State bias. I think we did this with Jeff Tedford for a decade. And then, whoops, Aaron Rogers ended that. Like, when it rains, it pours, okay? And one day, you can have a bias against offensive system,

and all of a sudden it produces Aaron Rogers. It is all the same about that. So I do think he has a divorce. Body speed athleticism? Like, you, the only case would be like, this guy, like, literally can't process defenses and he's going to be completely flustered. But he's still a good enough athlete that he's going to be.

be able to create plays, which is, as we all know, in 2021, you want quarterbacks who can pull plays out of their ass, and a third and 11, they can scramble out, they can pull some throw running on the side out of nowhere, and that, he can do all that stuff. He ran a 4-4-1 at his pro-day, apparently. I mean, the guy, and think about that, like Russell Wilson ran, I think, like a 4-5-something, and this was, like, you know, in his heyday. So this guy is super athletic. He's mini-cam is really what he is. But he's also very accurate. I think the big question really is only just the processing speed thing. And I think that's harder to evaluate from the outside looking in than any other thing. So it just makes him a very, like, I guess, controversial prospect. Nora, is the fact that the

Niners immediately said Jimmy Grappelo was our guy after training for three, the funniest report of the offseason so far? So does Jared as our quarterback right now? at this moment count as the off season, or was that still during... That was just so barely concealed contempt for him that I don't even think that was a report. That was Sean McVade, being like, please, please offer me something for Jared Gough. I would say the best ever... Then it's the funniest. If that one doesn't count that it's the funniest.

Cliff Kingsbury set the bar with Josh Rosenzard guy and then immediately backing off from it, almost like in mid-sentence. He was just like, I'm out of this. So there's a good genre now and it's a bunch of young coaches now who have... committed to a quarterback and then abandoned him. It's pretty good. Danny, real quick, we haven't talked enough about the Eagles in this podcast. Their plan is what?

I think their plan is to, well, at least right now, it looks like to build around Jalen Hertz, at least in the short term. I think this trade back, and this goes to what we were talking about earlier in the pot, is like they can still trade back and get one of the top tier pass catchers in this class. You know, I've got them,

I actually did a new mock just after this news dropped, and I have them taking Kyle Pitts at 12. I think there's a real chance. You think Pitt will be a 12. I think there's a real chance, even though he's one of the best players in this draft, maybe like the top non-quarterback in this class. Yeah, oh, no, that's why I'm surprised he'd be available at 12.

This might be like less likely to happen, but I do think there is a chance. He falls a little bit based on a run on quarterbacks. Some other teams might say we'd rather have a tackle here or, you know, a really good corner or something like that because tight end, generally speaking, is just not taken in the top 10 very often at all, especially in a class where you might have five quarterbacks

go in the first 10 picks. So that's the only reason. I don't think he should fall to 12, but I think there's a slight chance that could happen. You know what's funny about that in fantasy drafts, right? Granc for years, Kelsey now, and somebody in an auction or in a draft, and it's always $8 more than it seems like it should have been

or it's seven picks higher than they... And then you're always... jealous of the guy who has Kelsey. And that's, and that person's never trading him. And you're always like, hey, what if I give you this awesome receiver and a quarterback for Kelsey's got, no thanks. It seems like Pitts is, that guy

wherever he goes, everybody else will just be jealous of him for nine years. How many elite tight ends do we have? It's basically him and sort of Darren Waller, right? Right. Yeah. So I don't know. I think he should not go past 10. I agree. They're going to, tight ends are going

to start getting drafted higher, too, I think, because there's better athletes that play it because they make more money, their higher profile, they get to do, you know, they don't have to just like block and do stuff that sucks. I totally agree. As long as Bill Belichick is a draft in them, I don't care because he just cannot draft them anymore. I don't know what happens.

Justin feels it's going to fall to the Patriots and they're not going to take him because they're going to take a Division 2 safety. Oh my God. Yep. Scouting. They're Lenore Ryan pro-day. Bill just put his hand on his face. Before we go to any other players, though, I want to talk about the idea that Mack Jones could really be the number three

pick. Danny's horrified by this. Please talk about this. Can we, are we buying this? I don't know. I haven't bought. I don't know either. When people like Mack Jones can be a first round pick, I didn't buy that. So now that he's a three, I was already so far out on this narrative. I'm a million miles away from it. I need you to take me through with Danny Kelly. I guess the, the argument is that he's not a project. But just because you're not a project doesn't mean you're good. I guess he's not a project. I mean, it's not like he has a ton of starts either. He had he started basically one and a half seasons. And he has, he was in an offense that featured a ton of RPO's.

You know, it's not like he was running, you know, from under center, all these pro concepts and, you know, basically could just hit the ground running in the NFL. He, he was, I will say, the defense of him going at number three, and I, my stylistic comp for him in the draft guide, in the ringer NFL draft guide is Matt Ryan. Shanahan turned Matt Ryan into an MVP. You know, he's very accurate. His decision making is really strong. you know, he doesn't have a great arm,

but he can, you know, feather the ball in there when he needs to and get it to the guys that he needs to get to. And I think, you know, if we're making a case that this is actually real, because look, Chris Sims, he's very close, like you said, he's close to Kyle Shanahan.

He thinks it's for Mac Jones. I see a couple of people who say it's for Mac Jones. He's the one that made the argument that he's not a project. Also, Mike Tanenbaum made the Matt Ryan Mac Jones comp as well. So I think if we're trying to, like, get into the head of Shanahan, and that this is the reason he's moving up there.

Like, Mac Jones, accurate, decisive. You know, he's not going to make a lot of turnovers likely. So I think if you're talking about what Shanahan wants, I can see all those things. He's not mobile whatsoever. So that's sort of like the big mark here, or, you know, like vote against him being this pick. But Matt Ryan was MVP under Shanahan.

So are we allowed to be snarky on the ringer NFL show, Nora? Absolutely. permission to snark. So if you're a Niners fan, you're like, cool, we've got the next Matt Ryan. Right. We did it. Right. We're going to make one Super Bowl and lose in a devastating way.

And other than that, we're going to have a lot of terrible losses. Awesome. He did win an MVP. He's pretty good. Great. He's pretty good. Kyle Shadehan was, like, in love with Kurt Cousin. No, Kirk Couss is plenty athletic enough to, like,

you know, roll out on a boot. Like, that's fine. And it's really kind of all you need. I think they'd rather have like RG3 though in his prime. Like rookie year, RG3, the most electric, one of the most electric players we've seen.

I think they'd much rather have that, you know, just from an entertainment standpoint. I like that I made Kevin defend Matt Ryan as the highlight of the podcast for me. It's a weird corner from him. Kevin hates himself right now. No, I don't,

I actually don't think I've ever defended Matt Ryan ever. This is great. I thought that. I just think if Matt Ryan, if Matt Ryan, if Matt Ryan's career were available in the draft, it would be taken third overall, maybe even second overall.

I think the Jets would take Matt Ryan's career at two. That's how I view it. Now, I want to say something. I was thinking about this when the trade came down, and I was thinking about the fact that my first ever press conference when I was covering the NFL seven, eight years ago, was a coach saying there's no such thing for overpaying for a franchise quarterback. They don't grow on trees.

No one ever looked at John Elway trade with Denver and said they overpaid, even though at the time was a boatload of picks. That coach, you probably saw this coming, was Mike Shanahan. Okay. And Mike Shanahan got the franchise quarterback. He had the franchise quarterback in Denver, and everything flowed through that. And again, as Mike Shanahan said, nobody in Denver ever said, man, we gave up too much for John L. Y coming from Baltimore when he wouldn't play there.

And so I think that Kyle Shanahan probably has, obviously, a lot of Mike in him from an offensive standpoint, but he also probably has the same mentality. RG3 before the injuries, and that was why Mike Shannon was talking about this, looked like that kind of guy. He looked like the guy who was going to be good for 10 years and was going to win a Super Bowl, whatever, and then he tarred his ACL

and it's a different deal. But I'm just saying, I think that when you're an offensive guru like that, you cannot put a price on quarterback, and I think that this can end up being a good deal as long as they're reasonably certain on who this is. Well, also, the guru squad,

like the offensive whiz guys, they always like the guys that they can manipulate a little bit. Like, the Shanahan's, the McFitt, they are so smart and they are so good at this, but there is 10% in every single one of those guys that looks at quarterbacks and goes, yeah, I kind of want one who's always going to do what I want him to do and who's going to be the puzzle piece that I can move around in the ways that I want. And sometimes you look at a guy like Mack Jones and you go, there is my moldable piece of clay.

And it gets dicey. That's how we feel about football writers at the ringer. It's same thing. Like, we just want moldable pieces of clay. Can I bring up an awesome theory that you're going to be jealous of, Kevin? Sure. I'm already jealous. What's a better scenario for Justin Fields than dropping a little bit in this draft?

Having Mack Jones go third to the Niners, having the Internet outrage. I don't know if you know this, but the Internet likes to get been out of shape sometimes about them. They do. Having that whole community rally behind, oh, my God, Justin Fields went nine. This is a national tragedy. Oh, my God. and then he has this huge chip on his shoulder. And then I think he's going to kick ass as a pro.

I could just see the narrative. I can see how this is going to play out already. Kevin, are you jealous? I'm in chambles. I'm in shambles. Yeah, I'm going to pretend we have a connection problem. He defended Matt Ryan and now it took a take. Yeah, I mean, that happened a little bit with Teddy Bridgewater,

who obviously dropped in 2014. Derek Carr dropped in 2014. I think that there was similar kind of like wire relaying this guy drop conversations. Who is this? backdoor Patriots take or is there a team you think would fit there? There is no way he is dropping to 15. How can you watch

like Danny has him second. Danny's smart. Danny every year the draft however it plays out his draft guide does really well every year and he is good takes on this. There's got out of the first 11 teams, none of them are going to see what Danny sees in Justin Fields. Like that's crazy. Somebody's going to

see it. So and if Carolina passes him, Carolina passes in that Tepper should sell the team. Like really? You're going to trade seven first rounders for Deshawn Watson and you're not going to take fields at eight? Right.

That's bonkers. Denver, I would say Denver at nine. Because Denver is one of the teams that's hurt most by the run at quarterbacks at the very, very top, especially if Lance goes forth, because Denver is ready to win now. Say what you about Vic Fangio, I don't know, but they got Kyle four, Justin Simmons is a really good safety.

They've got talent everywhere. One of the best free agencies of any team. Yes. Yes. They and Cleveland are probably the teams that just handle their business the best and answer the most questions. Smart, targeted value.

Without overthinking it like Kraft and Belichick. Hey, we got Nelson Aguilar. Fuck off. We have speed now. How dare you? We've guys that can run by cornerbacks. Seat receiver too. Catch bombs.

Yeah. You're the team. They got speed. We've speed now. We've speed now. We've seen now. over two years. I guarantee Danny likes Nelson Aguilar deep down.

Deep down. I do. I do. I don't know for that money, but I like Aguilar. Yeah. It's funny. I think, Bill,

I'm with you in the sense that there might be a team that's a little more complete that can make fields the missing piece. I'm in on that theory. How about Denver? Denver for the rest three years

has been the, oh, watch out for this team. They're going to go from worse to first, and then every year they have terrible injuries. That would be a fun thing for him. John Elway is not picking the players anymore so that they don't have to draft

whatever quarterback looks like Brock Osweiler or Praxon Lynch now. Which one of these guys is tall? It's got to be Denver, Carolina, and then is the Dark Horse Atlanta still, even though they restructured Matt Ryan? I don't know if they will.

Matt Ryan is like 18 this year, I think. Yeah. Well, Matt Ryan and Julio have one more year. It's hard for, Matt Ryan for two years is where they're at right now. It would be hard to move on from him for two years. Yeah. I think he's due 18 this year. I don't have the numbers in front of me.

But it is, it's vaguely manageable. It's a lot next year too. Oh, yeah. Did you see his contract? He has bonuses for interceptions in the last two minutes of a close game. It's $2 million per interception for him. So they're actually incentivizing him to keep, to keep fucking up the end of the game. Just like devastating Zax to take yourself out of field goal range.

Yeah. That's a good agent. Can I ask you guys a question? Are we talking about this sort of, this draft sort of wrong in a way where it's been the whole time, okay, there's a top four quarterbacks and we're talking about who belongs in the top four. Is there just a top five now? Yeah. What?

The field two good five? Mac Jones. Well, just that all five of these guys are probably going to go pretty high in the first round. Like, I just, I, we're talking about quarterbacks and a lot of teams need them and a lot of teams are already at the top who want them. I just feel like all five of those guys are going in the first 15 picks. But, well, since he's five. I agree with that. So since he would have to trade down for them.

I think they will go quarterback, quarterback, quarterback, quarterback. Probably Cincinnati stays and takes Sewell or position player, probably Sewell. And then a wide receiver at six. But then one of, I just, is the fifth quarterback, whoever it is going to get past eight, nine. Like, that feels hard to me. I don't think so. But that's what we're saying. We're saying it could be Denver, could be Carolina.

It could be, there's a lot of possibilities there. Could be a trade up. Could be a team like the Niners says, screw it. on our franchise quarterback now. My main point is that we're talking about the NFL and we're talking about quarterbacks. None of these guys is going in the fourth round. Like that's just, it's just not happening.

I agree with that. Except Justin Fields and Gilbrant's draft. The draft that Gilbrand is having. Wait, wait a second. Is Sewell that good that since he has to take him at five? Like if Denver called them and said, what's flipped five and nine, here's our 2022 first and like a third.

They wouldn't, they wouldn't just roll the dice that they can still get a tackle at nine. the draft deep enough, Danny? Yeah. This is a really strong tackle class, too. So I don't know if they necessarily have to sit there and take him. I mean, Sewell is a very good prospect, and he's only 20 years old. Everything he's done is, like, way ahead of the curve in terms of his age.

So this is why I think a lot of people are so excited about what he can be in the NFL. He's really, really good, really, really, consistent. Also, really young coming into the NFL. However, I really like a lot of the tackles in this class. Honestly, Rishan Slater from Northwestern is really good. Christian Derrissoff from Virginia Tech is really good. There's a lot of good tackles in this class. It's probably, I would say,

receiver and tackle and maybe corner are the three strongest groups, the strongest positions in this class. And so, yeah, if the Bengals want to move back, I don't think I would really blame them too much. I mean, people would get on their case about not protecting Burrow. Well, yeah, but when you,

they gave up 48 sacks last year and they need more than one offensive linemen. Right, right. So, yeah, I mean, I think that's definitely in the realm of possibility. that they could move back. I will say the prerequisite for the Bengals trading down is them getting on email or just getting like a cell phone,

something like that. Just something internally where they can talk to other teams. They're sending telegrams. Yeah, we'll see what happens. Yeah, they sent a wagon to other teams to auction off that pick. All right, producer Craig says

we're past the 30 minute mark. Any other takes? I don't love that Miami trade to back up. I know I praised them at the beginning of the pod, but I actually feel like what Danny just laid out with tackles and receivers. like I just feel like somebody really good was going to follow them at 12.

I don't know if they needed a first round pick. Unless they think Chase is like this generational receiver, that's the only way that makes sense to me. Also, why do they do it right now? Yeah, right. I wouldn't have minded this on draft night. When you know who that, like you feel like you know who the guy is and that gets screwed up all the time.

But still, you know the player that you're trading up to take and you know how the board is shaping up. I don't really get doing it now. That is kind of an interesting, yeah. They have so many picks. They're like the guy who just like accidentally. They have billions of dollars. And they're tipping their hairdresser like $500 because they don't know what else to do.

All right. Here's the last 10 drafts. Teams trading up into the top three. Selected Sam Darnel, Mitchell Trubisky, Jared Golf, Carson, Wends, RG3. That's the list of teams that traded into the top three. Mac Jones fits in nicely with that group. Mac Jones just slides right in. Mac Jones, put them in there.

I'm going to end with the question for all of you guys, very short. Three teams change their destiny today. In five years, we're looking back on this trade. Who had the best day today, Danny Kelly? I think the 49ers. The 49ers, if they take Fields? I think Lance too. Lance or Fields.

If they take either of those guys, I'm going to be very excited but what they can do on offense. Bill, sorry, but I'm not that. I don't love Jimmy G. in that offense. Especially, you know, just, I think the ceiling would go up significantly for the same thing. They can apologize this to me.

Well, I know that you kind of want it back on the first thing. How dare you? So I'm saying the 49ers because I think this raises their ceiling significantly. I vote for the Dolphins, even though I didn't totally agree with the second trade, but just like just this, the narrative of having a smart NFL team that's just doing all of this correctly has been really fun to watch. And sadly, the biggest decision of all of these decisions was the one they missed, which was Herbert versus Tua. But everything else they've crushed. Oh, Danny's still in on Tua. I am. I am.

I'm holding out hope. We all had a moment with Tua last spring, and we don't want to, we want to keep that going. We want to keep the good vibes going. Nora? Just today? Yeah. Just the stuff that went down today, the 49ers. Or if Jimmy goes back to New England, then it's the women of New England, biggest winners of the day.

I thought about something that Daniel Jeremiah said a couple years ago about how he always hated when the Colts drafted an offensive lineman because Peyton would make every offensive lineman look good. And so if you missed on an eval, it would always suck because all the entire Colts line looked good because he would get rid of the ball so quickly, right?

So with the Niners for me, I'm thinking that Kyle Shanahan is going to make any quarterback he drafts in the top three look good. And so this pick is always going to be a little overrated. So even if it's Mac Jones, Danny, hopefully it's Trey Lance or Justin Fields because I think they're better players than Mac Jones. Whoever the pick is is going to look really good. And so

in five years when we look back on this, we're going to realize that even if this wasn't the best value play, they got the best player because of how good of a coach Kyle Shanahan is. It's a Shanahan take. I have one more winner, Danny Kelly and all the people who have to do mock drafts because normally these trades happen with like 12 hours for the draft. And this time we actually have a settled top three, maybe top four that we can stare at and we can think about San Francisco. we can get like weeks of debate about who they should take versus like that happening 12 hours for the draft.

Yeah, I love that. That's a great point. Also, can we, can we mention the ringer as a winner? Because usually these massive trades happen to us on Saturday or like Sunday at 12 o'clock at night. This is actually a weekday trade where we can do an emergency pod. Content, baby. Content stays winning. Oh, man. Check out Danny Kelly's mock draft and his draft guide is one of the best things we do. the big board show with Danny Kelly and Danny Highfits is there's an episode this morning. I heard a rumor that Danny Hyfitz called this trade. Is that correct Danny Kelly? Can you confirm this? He did. He did. Wow. He said even, he even said maybe for Mac Jones. So credit to Highfitz for putting that into the world and now it might happen. You got to listen. You've got to listen.

I think Danny's writing on this. We'll have some content up on the ringer.com. This has been great. Nora, Bill, Danny Kelly. This has been fun. Thank you. Thank you. Thanks, Kev.