The Ringer NFL Show - The Bears Will Still Be Looking for a QB Next Season, Nothing’s Gonna Change in Carolina, and More Big Takeaways from Week 12 | Extra Point Taken

Episode Date: November 28, 2023

Sheil and Ben return to share their reactions to the Bears' gutsy win over the Vikings on ‘MNF’ and discuss the looming questions surrounding Justin Fields' future in Chicago moving forward. They then dive into the dismal state of the Carolina Panthers after the Frank Reich firing and shine a ray of playoff hope for the Packers and Rams after their slow starts (12:17). Finally, the boys examine some of the other under-the-radar contenders around the NFL before Sheil says goodbye to OC Matt Canada and the impressively low yardage streak that led to his release from the Steelers (38:41). The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please check out theringer.com/RG to find out more or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Sheil Kapadia and Ben Solak Associate Producer: Chris Sutton Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Musical Elements: Devon Renaldo Social: Kiera Givens and Eduardo Ocampo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Mac Jones is ripped. Matt Patricia's calling plays. The Celtics are title favorites. And The Ringer has a new Boston show. I'm Brian Barrett, host of Off the Pike, the show covering all things Boston sports. Olive shows multiple times a week covering your favorite teams and with your favorite ringer and local guests.

Plus, maybe Bill will stop by to rant about the socks. Follow off the pike with me, Brian Barrett, now on Spotify. Welcome to Extra Point Take and Chiokapati here, joined by Ben Solac following Monday night football. a thriller. The Bears beat them. Don't even try. A thriller. Get out of here. The Bears beat the Vikings 12.10. I've always said touchdowns are overrated anyway. They don't even need a touchdown. Only team this season, according to the broadcast, to win a game without scoring a touchdown.

We'll talk about that game, but more importantly, don't worry. We'll get to everything else that happened in week 12. Benjamin Solac, how are we doing? Oh, there's nothing you love more than just throwing down a couple bucks on Fandle. Who's going to score the first touchdown? Darnel Mooney and K.J. Osborne. And then you have to watch into the halfway through the fourth quarter to make sure a touchdown is scored in this game. And if you lose, you lose.

You just don't want to have no touchdowns. It's disgusting. So I was more engaged, I think, than the average fan was with our Monday Night Football this evening. There you go. So if you had T.J. Hawkinson, right? Only touchdown T.J. Hawkinson. If you had T.J. Hawkinson first touchdown or anytime touchdown, good job. If anybody had bears to win parlayed with no bear to score a touchdown, please send me the ticket.

I'd like to see it. That's a winner right there. That would also be a good one. And I would be worried about what other wagers you've made this season if that is one of yours. All right. My first take here, Ben, and you know, I was looking at this. I'm watching the game and I'm going, is there something from this game that really strikes me that I want to pull, you know, there wasn't like a huge coaching decision. or something from this game. And so I'm zooming out. And my take is there's nothing Justin Fields can do the rest of the way here to stop the

Bears from drafting a quarterback. And I felt like that before this game. And so I don't know if that is a controversial take or not, but even during the broadcast, they're having the discussion. You know, Joe Buck and Troy Aikman, they're saying this is a bit of an audition, a bit of an evaluation period that Ryan Poles is going to have to make a decision because they're going to get, it looks like, that number one pick from the Carolina Pan. And at the worst, I would think they would have the number two pick.

They're going to be positioned to draft a quarterback. And I just think this idea that like the rest of their season, the final six week, there are things Justin Fields can do that kind of stake his claim and say, no, no, don't draft a quarterback, you know, trade down or draft Marvin Harrison or draft the left tackle. Like, I think that ship has sailed. And I don't think that is a realistic outcome for this Chicago Bears franchise. I'm not even sitting here saying

Justin Fields is horrible or that he has no chance of ever being good. I just think that that decision has been made. I mean, the way he was going to, they were going to go a different round would have been for him to come out this season, stay healthy, ball out. They have this magical season.

And that just frankly hasn't happened. I'm sure you'll, you don't want to get to some of the flashes he's had and I don't disagree that he has had some flashes. I kind of like watching him play. But even in this game, I mean, he has two fumbles in key moments. in the fourth quarter. He's got 23 fumbles since the start of last season. That's tops in the

NFL. He still has a sack rate over 12%. And so I do see the flashes. Maybe at some point, he will be able to avoid those negative plays and there will be some type of consistency with him and this Bears offense. But I think when you're looking at it as the Bears organization, like, there's no time to continue to like buy time. And there's only so many times you get a chance to draft a quarterback in the top three, in the top five. And I don't think they're going to give that up, regardless of how Justin Fields plays the rest of the way. So that was my kind of zoom out, state of their Bears franchise, what we're looking at the rest of the way, what we're looking at in the offseason when they potentially have two top five picks. Yeah, I got to ask

this question online today. And I basically said, like, if Fields has the game he just had against the Lions in every single game the rest of the way, he can make it sweaty for the Bears. Like, if he finished on that stretch, he can make it like, oh, like Fields would look real good, like bird in the hand, two in the bush. You know, know, kind of a conversation. But even then, I don't think you'd have the stones in a draft where the first overall pick is like Caleb Williams or Drake May to give up that pick to look at fields for another year, which the immediate response is, well, they just, in 2020, they gave up the first overall pick to look at fields for another year. Well, there are two major differences. The first of the quarterback class, obviously.

I think that Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, and Anthony Richardson, what they were at the time as prospects, obviously now we've seen CJ Stroud. I would have held on that first pick. I'll tell you that. But what they were at the time as prospects, not held in the same air that Caleb and May are. So it's a lot easier to move off the first overall pick in that instance. The other difference is how many years were into Fields. Back then, we were two years into Fields career.

He had at least two more cheap seasons before the fifth year option. And then the second contract you'd have to sign, which if he ends up good, it's going to be a whale of a deal. Now we're through three years. So even if you think what you've got from Fields here is like a legit starting quarterback, you can build something off of this. Well, you get one more cheap year of him and then he's on the fifth year and then bang, you're on the second contract. You've missed the window to capitalize on having the good young quarterback.

No greater competitive advantage in the NFL. Number one is having a starting caliber, a high caliber quarterback on a rookie contract. And if you go and swing on May or Williams and you connect, not only are you getting a good quarterback, the guy you might have gotten with Fields. You're getting him, you're getting him much cheaper for much longer. And that gives you a larger runway to develop your team. bring along your young players, have you establish a winning window, play some playoff games,

losing the division round, come back the next year. It gives you that window that committing to Fields wouldn't give you. And so, like you said, like,

oh, you like the Fields' Fashes, Ben, I absolutely do. I think that Fields is going to be traded this off season.

I think it's going to be traded to a team where he has the opportunity to start to win the job. Think like kind of Baker-Mafel with the Panthers, Baker Maple with the Bucks. Like, all,

we'll see what this guy has. But I don't think he's going to do enough, nor has he done enough to move the bears off that first overall pick a quarterback. I was thinking about this earlier today about what kind of compensation Justin Fields would net in a trade. Do you have a sense in your head before I give you some example? You're the trade rankings, guy. This is your business.

Well, okay, so Tray Lance got a fourth round pick this offseason, and Tray Lance has barely played football. So, like, if you're talking about floor, I think that would be it. I was thinking to Sam, would someone give up what the Panthers gave up for Sam Darnold? I mean, that's really the most realistic cop, isn't it? You know, Darnold. And Darnold was not as good as, I think, Field has shown more than Darnold did at that time.

But you know how the NFL works. Everybody has their, wait, remember what this guy did at his pro day. Remember what our scouting report was like? Sam Darnold was, what, the third, second or third overall pick, and Fields was the 11th overall pick. So Darnold's got a second and a fourth. I think something in that neighborhood is, probably what Justin Fields gets.

And if you're somebody who's listening going, what are you talking about? Justin Fields has not had like a very consistent, healthy stretch of play where he's looked like he could operate an NFL passing game. You know, there is some truth to that. I would just say, you know, quarterbacks, it always gets bumped up higher than you're anticipating in the trade market. Again, Trey Lance, you know, had barely played football.

And Kyle Shanahan had him as, what, his third string quarterback. And he still got a fourth round pick. So what do you think? something like Darnold. You sound like you think it's going to be more than that. It's got to be more than Lance. You've actually seen this guy play good games, right? There's always also, you know, a guy like this,

who gets on the trade market, the first thing you do is you go find the teams that he played a really good game against and you go see if they're in the market. Right? He had like a great game against the Lions. I'm like, all right, our Lions want a QB2?

They want a guy having gone. It's the visceral experience of having played against him when he was at his best. So I definitely think, it's like a round two, round three pick and then something. I think that's probably the construction for it. Even if you're just,

even if you're acquiring him without too many designs to start him, it feels as a one year six million dollar, which is a contract next year, backup, like any team of the mobile quarterback, Raid's, great deals, Carters. It's an amazing deal.

Because you can put him out there with starting experience and you know how to design the offense around him and he can do the thing your starter does, real handy. And for that alone, like, tell me, the Philadelphia Eagles, Howie Rose, and Mr. QB2, isn't shelling out a third-round pick for Justin Fields, just for a year? Honestly, I think he is. Like, I legitimately think he would do it.

So to me, at least the days you pick and then probably some sugar on top. I will say, I'll go on record. I'll get to more of this in the off-season. I think he gets dealt for a third and a fifth, let's say that. So a little more than Lance, a little less than Darnel, we shall say. And then who knows? Maybe by the end of the season, we're having the conversation that the nerds always want us to have about, you know, do you just hang on to fields and draft a quarterback because,

man, it's hard. You never know. We don't have to have that conversation today, but we'll pocket that one maybe for a later time. All right. Anything else with this, you know, Bears defense looked great today. You were higher on them than I was on the Friday show, Jalen Johnson. Great game.

Montes Sweat is definitely making a difference with their pass rush. Your boy, T.J. Edwards, I thought that had a fantastic game today. So listen, that Vikings' offense looked terrible. and I'm going to talk a little bit about the NFC playoff picture so we don't have to get too deep on the Vikings right now. But, man, bears just shut them down. I mean, they couldn't do anything. They had one drive all night, really, where they did anything. So nice job by that bear's defense.

And if you're a Bears fan saying, couldn't you, you know, talk more about the win rather than fields? I get it. Listen, I hope you enjoy it. Like I always say, I hope you enjoyed your three hours on the sofa, watching your team win a game. Those don't come around too often. So in the grand scheme of the playoffs, doesn't mean, anything really for the Bears, but they get a win. Nice job by their day. Yeah, I'll toss a bone to those Bears fans because I had the Bears in our power rankings where we write a blur, we kind of

get different teams every single week. I had the Bears in my power ranking after the win against the Panthers. And I was like, okay, like they beat the Panthers. Congrats everybody beats Panthers. But you can see this team starting to get better. You can see the young peas. You see the impact to sweat. Jalen Johnson, the linebacker changes. Like even if I think overall, the amount of money and resources they spent on DJ Moore plus Montes Webb plus T.J. Edwards plus Tremaine Edmonds is like a lot. They're still just better players than the guys they had, right? Yeah.

Maybe overspending is a March conversation. Once we get to a fall month, a winter month, are there good players on the field? And for the Bears, there are better players on the field than they have been over the last few years. So I don't know if Matt Abrafus will make this offseason. And I don't know how much I want to attribute the success of the Bears to the coaching staffs. I do think that a lot of it has been getting good players in.

But in general, this Bears bedrock. for their upcoming coach, as good as it's been since, like, the Nagy era. Like, they're even without quarterback. If they had that first overall pick, go hand, select a guy and you have some, like, more in Komet and the running back rotation, some of the offensive line play. Kevin Jenks had a great year where he got hurt in this game, obviously, but he's been playing well. Like, the bedrock here is better than it's been in a while.

That's great news in Chicago. Yeah, I mean, all those guys you mentioned are probably, what, under 28 years old, probably ranging from like 24 to 28 years old. So they've had a lot of resources. It's, you know, you should be in this spot where, At least your roster looks improved, but at least it has been. And hey, I will get, got to give Fields credit. That last third down, he makes the throw to DJ more 36 yards.

That sets up the game-winning field goal. So he does bounce back a little bit after those two fumbles. All right. Let's move on. Benny Souls, what do you got? What's your first take of the night? She'll my first take of the night. It's brought you by Hyundai.

And you can do a lot from your phone, watch games, play with the fantasy teams. Listen to us. Talk about football, which I would encourage you to do. Please, for the brand, for that got to be a dad, got to pay. for some things, listen to the shows, listen to the ads. And now with Blue Link Plus, you can access your Hyundai Tucson Limited remotely with just a few taps. Unlock your doors, set the temp, and more all from your phone. Get complimentary, class leading Blue Link Plus.

It's just another way owning a Hyundai Tucson Limited is more convenient than ever. On Monday, the Carolina Panthers fired Frank Reich. If anybody didn't catch this, news Frank Reich out as the head coach of the Carolina Panthers. He was fired 11 games into his tenure. that is the shortest stint for a head coach in the last 45 years. All right. Urban Meyer got more time with the Jaguars than Frank Wright got with the Panthers. When your head coach had less time than Urban did, you know you did something wrong.

Now, what the Panthers are going to look like over the next several weeks of the season is this. Special teams coach Chris Tabor has become the interim head coach. They have Jim Caldwell on staff. Shout at Jim Caldwell hanging around, helping out staffs. He's going to be a special advisor to offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, who's taking back play calling after Frank Wright had previously taken play calling from him

following the first time that Frank Wright gave Thomas Brown play calling. Are you with me? It's a very healthy organization. Tabor and Caldwell, kind of once they got control of the room, fired quarterback's coach Josh McCown and assistant head coach and running backs coach, Deuce Staley.

Both of those guys are very clear right, right? Deuce was with him in Philadelphia and McCown as a player was also with him in. Philadelphia. Now, if you're listening to that like, wow, Ben, like a lot of changes, a bunch of names thrown around, why should I care? Yeah, that's the correct reaction to have because the take is this. Nothing's going to change in Carolina. They fired a head coach, promoted an interim and a special assistant and fired two more positional coached to change, play calling around, and nothing is going to change. There are two reasons why nothing is going to change. The first is owner Dave Tepper.

Dave Tapper, who bought the team in 2018, fired Ron Rivera in 2019, promoted an interim, hired Matt Ruhle from the college ranks, no NFL experience to a seven years, $63 million deal, gave him just two years as the head coach, fired him with more than $40 million left on his deal,

promoted a second interim, had to go to court with Frank Ruhl to debate how his buyout was going to be paid out, and got Frank Reich from the Indianapolis Colts, bragged about how much money he was spending on the assistant coaches, how they're doling out tons of paychecks, to bring in an incredible staff, fired right within 11 games,

and now has his third interim and sixth coach since he bought the team in 2018. Nothing's going to change because it's bad from the top, all right? It's bad ownership. He was running a bad ship. He is doing a poor job, evaluating coaches, and then giving coaches a chance to build their teams. I'm not going to defend Matt Rule.

It's not going to be a thing that I do. But the immediacy and franticness of all of these changes does not work. It is not the sign of organizational health. This is the Dave Tepper who has an $800 million unfinished facility in Rock Hill, Carolina, where they have to demo the half-built facility because they're going to build a whole new team facility. We should do a live pod from there. I wonder if we can get our bosses to Greenwich.

They're demolishing it right now, so I don't know if it's safe. You got hard hats? I've got a hard hat on there. This is not a single thing Dave Tepper has done since he bought the Carolina Panthers has passed the sniff test. Not a one. And perhaps most important for the football side of things for the product is how involved Dave Tepper got with the decision to draft Bryce Young with the first overall pick. Because Bryce Young is the second reason why nothing is going to change with Carolina Panthers. You are not at a stage right now where there is an offensive coach you can bring into the building

who is going to fix the offense for Bryce Young. Bryce Young is bad in the pocket. He has limited arm strength. He has limited mobility. and he does not see the middle of the field. He is a dramatically limited NFL quarterback because of his size. This was foreseeable on his Alabama film. This was evident.

I had legit concerns about this. Other people had legit concerns about this. I'm pretty sure Frank Reich had legit concerns about this because Reich, when the Panthers traded for the pick in March, wanted C.J. Shroud. And somewhere between acquiring the first overall pick and making the selection, Dave Tepper got involved and picked Bryce Young. Stephen Holder of the

of the athletic of ESPN I didn't check ESPN, ESPN, thank you Steve Holder said on on Twitter when there was a clip of Frank Wright talking about the pick that it is no secret it is a poorly kept secret in the league

that the owner was dramatically involved in the pick. The owner selected Bryce Young and he's mad that Frank Wright couldn't fix him when it's the wrong quarterback selection of first overall and so Frank Wright gets fired

and now Dave Tepper's going to go in a wild goose chase to find a theoretical offensive mind who doesn't exist who can make Bryce Young work in the NFL because I don't think he can. I'm so worried about that young man trying to play football at the NFL level.

Fix the offensive line all you want, get six good wide receivers in there. He is a limited quarterback. And you can make limited quarterbacks work, but it's usually very fleeting and very fragile. So nothing's going to change the Panthers. Congrats on firing Frank Reich, paying another buyout,

building a really bad name in NFL coaching circles. Again, this is not going to change anything. short term for the Panthers because Bryce Young is still the quarterback and it's not going to change anything long term for the Panthers because Dave Topper is still the owner and Dave Tapper's a bad owner. All right. A few things here. First of all,

there's going to be a lot of people saying they wanted CJ Stroud over Bryce Young. Like, I need those things on the record at the time of the draft now that we've seen how CJs. Check the ringer NFL draft pod, baby. We were home. Okay, I'm not saying you. I'm saying, you know, like the fragrance. Yeah, I got you. I got you.

But also, I think you're, now listen, I have a lot of concerns about how Bryce Young has looked this season. At the same time, I do think if Bryce Young were someone who you liked coming out of the draft, you would have a bit of a different take. It is very easy if somebody liked Bryce Young coming out of the draft to right now say, give me a break. It's 11 games. He's looked bad.

It's been a horrible situation with a bad offensive line with the worst skill position talent in the NFL, a dysfunctional organization, a weird coaching staff where there's obviously some type of schism where half the guys are being fired, half the guys are not being fired. And so I will just, you know, if you're a Panthers fan listening to this saying being like, you know, we're already burying Bryce Young. I'm with you. I have, don't get me. Again, I have concerns and I liked Bryce Young as a prospect. I think at least half the league, maybe more would have taken Bryce Young with the number one overall pick. I think I saw Josh Norris tweet out that, you know, I don't I don't know if there was a report that the Texans would have taken Bryce Young if they had the number one.

That I 100% believe. I'm very positive the Texas were going to take you. There you go. So it's, you know, I would just like, like rookie quarterback seasons can lie to us. You know, if you go back throughout history, there are rookie quarterbacks who three years in, we thought, or two years in, we thought we're amazing, who has rookies put up terrible numbers. Now, again, I'm not disagree. Like, like, he's looked. It's not just the numbers.

It's like he has looked bad. And I think that's probably part of the reason why David Teper, you know, fired Frank Riker. Now, I will say this. And listen, I do not want to be in the position of defending David Teper. I didn't think Frank Rang, I just have to go on the record with what I thought at the time. I didn't think Frank Rake was a bad hire. I thought, I thought, okay, this is not a bad plan to go ahead, take a big swing at quarterback, get your quarterback, get Frank Rike.

I'm not telling you Frank Rake is Bill Walsh, but Frank Rike had at least shown an ability to get what I thought were not talented offenses in Indianapolis to mediocrity. And so when he hired Frank Wright and got Bryce Young, I thought, okay, like that's a fine start to have. Now, have there been a billion other missteps? Yes. Like you said, the 30 and 63 since Tepper took over the organization, that's the second worst record in the NFL, zero winning records, zero playoff appearances, six different head coaches, the fiasco with the practice facility. There's a lot of stuff to rip Tepper. I'm just saying on this individual thing, I think hiring a head coach can be difficult. and I don't think that the process here was necessarily terrible.

So it's like, what do they do now? I mean, I don't know. You hire as head coach. You have to have some plan for at least giving Bryce Young a shot. And that might have to do way more with personnel changes. And hey, just invest every resource into the offensive line and wide receivers and a good schemer on offense. And let's see what it looks like.

So I don't have confidence in David Tepper. But I do think to be fair, when a team goes one in 10, and the quarterback who you spent the number one overall pick on looks like a complete disaster. I actually think he's justified in firing Frank Reich in this situation. Okay. So that's, that to me is the rub here, right? You're someone who at the time you liked the Frank Reich higher.

I'm someone who at the time like the Frank Reich higher. I think we generally like the way that Frank Reich scraped together offenses with a carousel of quarterbacks in Indianapolis, right? And so at the time, he's going to come over and take the Panthers job. This is a good offensive mind. if we had that opinion of Reich at the time and then a quarterback comes into the league who we have no data about him playing at the NFL level at all

and Reich can't make the offense work to me that doesn't say a lot of it doesn't say as much about Reich because it doesn't say about the quarterback. To me like that's why like I look at Bryce like I know a lot of people have complaints about the design of this offense schematically I think a ton of those are overblown.

I think that we saw Andy Dalton play one game against Seattle Seahawks make this offense look perfectly functional look like an NFL offense with NFL concepts. And it is, man. It is a very standard NFL offense. Sure, it could have better kid gloves on. It could have water wings on it.

Like, you could not be the Mike McDaniel offense where it's like 10,000 motions. And it could be the Justin Fields offense. We just saw where they throw like one ball more than 10 years beyond line of scrimmage. But this is a legitimate offense. It's not a badly designed offense. It's absolutely a poorly, it's got bad weapons, right? It's got bad resources to throw the ball to. That's where I think you start to turn to Scott Fidderer, the GM.

let me start to turn the decisions made personnel-wise over the last few years. The six overall Ikea Kuanu in 2022, struggling there at left tackle. They spent 39 overall in Jonathan Mingo this past year, rookie wide receiver. Three years ago, 2021. They spent 59 overall on Terrace Marshall. Neither one of those receiver picks right now look like they're hidden. That's a problem. They spent 94 overall in 2022 on Matt Peral.

Corral is not on a team right now, let alone on the Panthers, right? So they've spent top 100 picks poorly when they've been trying to build it on the offense. I think if you're looking to defray blame or at least to like portion out in the correct pieces of pie on this offense, I think Scott Federer deserves a pretty long look for the way that these cupboards have been filled. But in general, like, I agree, okay, like, Reich can't make Bryce Young works. We have to fire him and get someone in who does. Like, yes, that's true. But I think it says a lot about Bryce Young that Frank Reich couldn't get him with an offense working.

I think Frank Reich is a good offensive coach. It could. It very well could. And in a lot of this in terms of the decision, I mean, their quarterback decisions have been a complete disaster since Tepper got there. And again, we don't know well, how much is Tepper? How much is the GM fitter? How much is the coach having a say? And so all that stuff is sort of difficult to sort out. We can sort out the results under this ownership, and the results have been a complete disaster. So let's finish the Panthers discussion with this. Tepper calls you tomorrow. He says, hey, you know, hey, Solek, I'm an expat. You're a little hard on me, but it's all good. I understand. I need to be held accountable. What do I do? I fire Frank Reich.

I've got Bryce Young and he's not going to give you that out to move on from Bryce Young. He's saying, I want to give Bryce Young a fair shot next season. Don't worry about the past catchers in the O line. I'm going to get that sorted out. But in terms of a head coach, in terms of, you know, who do I bring in, how do I give this at least one opportunity in 2024 to see what I have before deciding if I have to blow the whole thing up? What are you telling you? Like, is this sound? Is there a fix here where you're like, maybe, like, even with your doubts about Bryce Young, picture the best version of Bryce Young, okay? Picture the best version of Bryce Young.

How do you bring that out in 2024? Yeah, you hire Frank Smith, who's the O.C of the Dolphins, and you try to run the McDaniel stuff, right? You should try to run, like, like, it's just, it's pop gun, anticipation, accuracy. You're never in the pocket for long. You're never hoarding in the ball for long. and we're just asking you to read it out and point and shoot, right? Like, there is no offense in the league that helps its quarterback more than the Dolphins offense helps Tua.

I'm not going to make this to a conversation. No Dolphins fans of my mentions. That's a separate thing in time. Look at me. No, none of you. But you bring a Frank Smith who's the OC there and you try to run that. Now, you can also swing dramatically the other way and go really heavy personnel and just try to run the ball well.

because Bryce can get on the move, Bryce can boot, right? And Bryce can throw on the move. One of the things like he's, he doesn't, Bryce doesn't have a really strong arm when his feet are tied to the ground. But accordingly,

when he's on the move when he's throwing on the run, he has, like he doesn't have experience a big drain in arm strength because they didn't, he doesn't really use power from the ground anyway, because he's up on his tiptoes all the time. So you can,

you can go like 2019 Browns with Mayfield and Stefansky where I was just like, we're going to run more boots than anybody's ever seen in the entire world. So go get. at like Dave Canales out of the box or Shane Waldron from the Seahawks, kind of gets to run that sort of an offense. Like Drew Petzing, like Petzing would have been a nice hire for them.

He's the O.C. of the Cardinals right now out of that Sepantiancy system. Like, he's a guy that, again, runs an offense, like, maybe can work for him. But you have to decide personnel-wise what you want to do, right? Because, like, the Dolphids is all like, we're speed and we're super light. Those offenses, like, multiple tight ends. We're going to be super heavy. And so personnel-wise, you have to decide what you want and then go from there. And you don't have a first-round pick.

That's a bit of an issue. That's going to be tough. You don't have a first round pick, and it's the first overall pick. There's a chance that this team traded, who got the first overall pick, passed on Stroud, and then in doing so, passed on Caleb Williams slash Drake Bay. Like, imagine five years from now Stroud and Caleb Williams are like two of the best five quarterbacks in the league. Both of those guys were Panthers, and they missed it. And that's a terrible shame.

There you go. Well, that's your extra point taken brought to you by Hyundai. So, again, complimentary class leading Blue Link Plus with your Hyundai Tucson Limited to make things more convenient than ever. Lockerunlock the doors, set the tem. locate your car and more all from your phone. Learn more about the Tucson and Blue Link Plus at HyundaiUSA.com. Call 562-3-4-4603 for complete details. Hope Dave Tapper doesn't own a Hyundai.

All right, we'll take a break. We'll be right back with more extra point taken. All right, we are back on extra point taken. All right. My second take here. So my next two takes, So, like, you know, you haven't mocked me before, but you've called me out. I like a little division in my schedule.

when we're now two-thirds, right? The other way through us. Now is the time where you got to look, like, what are your new takes gonna be? You got all your other takes wrong. You might as well fire some new ones and hope people forgot about the other ones. So I'm looking at playoff pictures with my next two takes.

So let's start with this one in the NFC, Benjamin. Yes, I have it too. Not only the Packers, I've got two teams. The Packers and the Los Angeles Rams are making the playoffs in the NFC. Okay, of course, if you're, if you're first, time viewer or listener, we're wearing the cheeseheads. We did not plan this. We don't plan any of this. So, like, sent me a cheesehead after in August, we decided the Green Bay Packers

would be the team of extra point taken. We went through a few other options, the Steelers, the Broncos, looking at it now, you know, we came up with some pretty good options. We settled on the Green Bay Packers. I'm excited about this Green Bay Packers team and the way they could potentially end this season. So listen, if the season ended today, they wouldn't be in, They're five and six. But if you watched Jordan Love on Thanksgiving and you hadn't been paying too much attention to the Packers, because, you know, they were kind of stuck in the sort of middle of the NFL. This wasn't just a one game thing.

Okay. He has been coming on strong. I usually guard against the small samples. Like I hate when people say, you know, since week eight or since, it's like, no, no, no, football's already small samples. You have to look at the whole thing. But in this sense, I think it makes sense. I think it's instructive because this is a young offense.

and you have to say, well, are they really improving? Well, in the last four weeks, Jordan Love is top five EPA per pass play, top 10 in success rate. And if we just use our eyes, the guy looks so much more comfortable and so much more in control than he did earlier in the season. I mean, he passes the, does this guy know what he's doing test?

Like, he's not just running around out there. I mean, he is playing within structure at the same time. He is making plays with his legs. And I think what really stood out on Thanksgiving, if you were watching him and you haven't watched, like, he's a really talented player. Like, he's got a live, loose arm. He can run. They call that keeper or if it was an option run in the fourth quarter. He runs for 37 yards.

What's that? Yeah. And so I'm just like, I think if you're a Packers fan, I think maybe no other fan base should your opinion for maybe like week four to now have changed more than if you're a Green Bay Packers fan. Like, if I were a Packers fan, I would be excited about this guy. He's doing this with just this young supporting cast. They've had injuries on the offensive line, and they're still showing that improvement. So here's the case for them making the playoffs. They've got the second easiest remaining schedule.

Okay, they've got the Chiefs this weekend, then they're at the Giants, then they've got the bucks at the Panthers, at the Vikings, and the Bears. I think they have to go four and two against those six teams. I was using the New York Times simulator. That would give them around a 70. percent chance to make the playoffs. I think they're going to go four and two down the stretch. I think they're going to be a story.

I think he's going to be a player. We have to pay attention to. And I think the Green Bay Packers are going to the playoffs. So let's talk about them. And then I'll give you my argument for the Rams as well. This thing's heavy. I forget every time. It's like weighing my head down.

Does it weigh your head down a little? I've got over the head headphones. I'm just balancing this thing right now. It's just like barely sitting on my head. It moves when I move. I'm taking it off after you can be your Packers. Yes. So I have.

So I had one of my takes coming in was going to be the Packers are making the playoffs. And I'll, I've got a couple takes on the cutting room floor that I can bring back. But yeah, the schedule is a huge part of it. Impretyable has them with one of the easiest schedules remaining. Right now, they're at a 47% chance to make the playoffs. They have the Chiefs this upcoming week. But then after that, right? Giants, Buccaneers, Panthers, Vikings, and bears, they're in a spot where they're going to end the year with two division games

and probably have at least some control over their ability to make the playoffs. you and I did a great podcaster thing. We're like in minute 63 of some recent pod, we kind of mentioned the Packers. And we were like, oh, yeah, real quickly, we should just kind of like throw in here at the back end of the pod. Packers been looking pretty good, like getting a little bit better. Jordan Love settling in.

Oh, how nice to see. And then they have this nice statement winning against the Lions. And you can turn around and say, see, we told you. It was within the structure of the podcast. We definitely got it in there before the bell rang. But yeah, the Packers have been such an enjoyable watch this season because every single week, firstly they make ridiculous mistakes

because they're all children. They're all the youngest players you've ever seen. They're the youngest offense in the league by snap adjusted age. Even in that winning against the Lions, they had the Jordan Love, AJ Dillon, somebody turns the wrong way on fourth down

and we run into each other play. So they're a great watch because they make very silly mistakes. Even on the one touchdown, Christian Watson ran the wrong route. I mean, Jordan Love said it after, yeah. He's supposed to run a slam.

He runs an outbreaker. Yeah. But five weeks ago, it was five of those mistakes. Last week it was two. They're cutting down on those. And you can see light bulbs going on just across the offense. I'm doing Jordan Love for the play sheet this week.

And you can just find reps that he wasn't throwing earlier in the season that he's throwing now because it just the game has slowed down. He understands now, okay, like, no, that is a window and I can hit it. And Matt LaFlor is right. And Romeo Dubs will catch the ball most of the time. And this can work. Like it is just, it's the realization. It's just a slow turning on of light bulbs just across the offense for a lot of these players.

Dantavian Wix, Jaden Reed, rookie receivers, Luke McChryrd, rookie tight-end, they're all getting more involved in the passing game. So their arrow is pointing up. Now, I think they'll make the playoffs. I wouldn't be surprised if they can't land to the plane just because... Yeah.

Yeah, you know, because of the youth like we're talking about. But one thing that is really important to mention is that while the offense is very young, the defense has been through this. They've been through this for a long, long time. And they hit on some defensive additions, man. Carl Brooks, who's been rotating in for them along the defensive line,

continues to make impactful plays. They have Carrington Valentin, this young corner, feisty son of a gun. Holy smokes, this guy just hates the opponent for 60 minutes every single Sunday.

Very angry player. But this allowed them, they've been dealing with Jair Alexander injuries, and then they moved off for Saul Douglas, and they're sticking Valentin out there and asking him to solve problems for them a corner, and he is, he's holding his own. He's far from perfect,

but he's a young player out there surviving, so they've added some nice young players to a defense that already has just such a good established talent in Roshan Gary, who's having a really great, season in Kenny Clark, in Devondra Campbell, in Quay Walker. This is a defense that's been around.

The defense can save them, get them out of some sticky spots when the offense makes those mistakes. So I like the championship caliber, not championship caliber defense, but the playoff caliber defense, they've been around for a while. And I like that the offense arrow is pointing up. In general, Packers are a fun team to watch here down the stretch. I don't trust the defense. I agree with you.

They have talented players. I don't trust them at all. I think they could just get lit up on any given week. The Joe Barry effect. Yeah, I didn't want to be mean. I wasn't even going to mention him. just listen, we have a large body of evidence. Now, do you ever, like, like right now, it's near midnight on East Coast and you are wearing a cheese, uh, cheese head on with headphones

and talking to me. Do you wonder like, you know, like I wonder is it like my parents moved to this country for me to be doing doing this? Like how do I feel about that? I don't, do you have any thoughts like that or as you would say, you're living? First, like, I'm living. I don't worry about that. Life is a dream. Secondly, like absolutely. Yes, I do. But then like, I don't, like, I don't wake up this morning until like 10, 10.30. So I'm pretty fine with my life decision. They're being honest. All right. There goes my cheese. Hey, man. Go, Pat. Go. So the take was, here's what the take was going to be. So first, it was just going to be just the Packers unless the Vikings lost. If the Vikings lost, I'm like,

I'm getting the Vikings out of there and I'm going for two teams and I'm getting the Rams in there. So here's the quick argument for the Rams as well. Rams were healthy on Sunday and their offense looked incredible. If we go by offensive success rate, that was the four. best performance by any team all season long. They went up and down on the Arizona Cardinals, 457 yards. Kyron Williams, over 200 yards from scrimmage. They ran for 228. This was not, like in the past or earlier in the season when the Rams were playing well. I feel like we were like, whoa, Matthew Stafford was just out there, like, you know, feeling himself, heat check, making a high degree of difficulty throws. And don't get me wrong, he made some nice throws in this game.

But it didn't have to be Matthew Stafford just dropping back, operating for. from the pocket and carving the Cardinals up. Like, now you look around and you're like, oh, Kyron Williams, Bukkahua, Cooper Cup, two to Atwell making, like, oh, there's actually some pieces there for a play caller like Sean McVeigh to work with. So they've got about, they've got like a league average strength of schedule here. The rest of the way I was looking at their schedule,

I think they can go four and two. I mean, they've got the Ravens and the Niners. Those are two, you can lose both those games. If you win the other four, you still have over a 70% chance. So Rams are more of a long shot than the Packers, but I'm looking at this NFC picture right now with the Vikings losing tonight, with the Seahawks kind of in a tough spot.

One of those wildcard spots is going to come from the NFC East, either the Eagles or the Cowboys. The other two are really up for grabs between Vikings, Seahawks, Packers, Rams, anyone from the NFC South. I'm going with the Packers and Rams. I think those are going to be the two teams that eventually get it done as long as Matthew Stafford stays healthy. Yeah, no, they, the way they look,

against the Cardinals. As an Eagles fan who watched him, Jonathan Gannon coached defense in my day, I was like, yeah, when you run into an offense, that's at full strength, and it's got a good quarterback. This is kind of what it looks like.

They just eat you. They just walk down the field on you, and it feels like there's no way to stop it. That Cardinals defense, I will say, is extremely banged up, and so that does make things tough for them. The Rams defense has a little bit of that sensation that Packers' offense does.

Extremely young unit. And I think they, like I said, the Packers, like five weeks ago, had five bad mistakes, and now they have two. I think the Rams are more like five to three, three and a half. I think the secondary-wise, they're still making a lot of errors. They're kind of enduring a carousel, like cornerback as well. They've had Darien Kendrick and Kobe Durant. They've kind of moved those players around and benched.

I think they benched Kendrick in Week 9 if memory serves, trying to figure out what their best alignment is there. So they're still kind of scraping it together on that back end. The front, though, is a spot where, like, you've seen Kobe Turner. have a nice emergence. You've seen Michael Hote, who they use as an outside linebacker, Byron Young,

who they drafted this year. They've had a lot more impact from those young players than expected. And so defensively, it feels like they're getting their head above water and they're starting to get a stock up as the season ends here, but this will be carried by the offense. The thing that concerns me is besides the Stafford Health,

schedule-wise, it's tougher for them, right? They have, I think, a lot smaller margin for error than the Packers do. And so we'll see if you score 37 points every game, though, Yeah, you're going to be all right. Yeah, this is just recency bias. I like both those teams. All right, what do you got?

Give me your second take. Okay, so I, this is one I was on the kind of room four for me, but I'm sure to pick your brain on it. I have a list that I am positive, a list of teams, that I am positive contains the Super Bowl winner. It is seven teams long. Seven teams long. Okay.

The teams are as follows. The Philadelphia Eagles, the San Francisco 49ers, the Dallas Cowboys, the Baltimore Ravens, the Kansas City Chiefs, the Miami Dolphins, and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Those are my seven, and I'm sticking to them. Am I missing a team, or do I have one team too many? All right, so let's go through the teams

you could potentially be missing. You don't have the Detroit Lions in there. Would you have had the Detroit Lions in there a week ago before that Thanksgiving performance? I don't think so, because I've been concerned, about this defense for a bit. And then obviously, like, like the game they played against the Bears was concerning. And then they, they turn around to have that Packers game.

This Lions defense, really, like, the Lions draft came under heavy fire, right? When they, it's like, Jamir Gibbs 12 overall and Jack Campbell at 18. And then again, like, that's an April problem. It's a May problem. Once we get to October, are there good players on the field yesterday or no? We kind of forget about a lot of that stuff. Jamir Gibbs is a good player. He's clearly been valuable to the team.

Jack Campbell's struggling. Jack Campbell's having a tough time out there. And then that's okay. Linebacker tends to be a spot where it takes a couple years. I don't think it's nailing the coffin on Campbell's career or anything. But in the early part of the season, they were getting legit career caliber play from Alex Anzolone, like the best ball he's played in his career, period.

And it was like, holy, well, if they're getting this, like, we're fine. Don't worry about it. We're just going to rotate Derek Barnes and Jack Campbell's going to be okay. Anzolone's kind of come back down to earth a little bit. And right now their linebacker play is extremely rough. They're one of the worst defense in the league against play action. Teams constantly throw over the middle of the field against them.

They throw the backs against them and they manipulate the linebackers and then get the ball quick out to the flat and then the backs go for a run. Like it is a, that is such a weak point for this team. And they can't hide it the way like there are other really good defenses right now, the Browns, the Eagles who like their linebackers don't impact the game that much and it's not where their talent resides, but they can hide it with an elite pass rush from really good coverage. The Lions don't have that man. They have an injured Emmanuel Mosley and injured Johnson Gardner Johnson,

so they're playing Jerry Jacobs out there, right? They have Ayn Hutchinson who, Hudgens is another one to start the season, an absolute tear, man. He was lean to the league and pressures. He can't sustain it. He can't keep up. He's getting a lot of attention from imposing defense. He's still quite a good player, but Josh Pascal isn't the second rusher they need him to be.

Alim McNeil is an interior rusher. He's fine. He's not that high impact. They just don't have enough in the past rush, so they can't hide these problems easily. I think they're doing a decent job schematically, but I do not see how this lion's defense presents a roadblock for any of the legitimate NFC contenders. I agree with you.

I think if the Lions were in the mix for the one seat, I think we talked about this before. If you told me, hey, they're going to get a buy and home field throughout, then I would say, yeah, absolutely, they belong in there. So I think the NFC is easy. I mean, we did a podcast. I'm pretty sure that this exact time last year

where we're like, there's three teams in the NFC that could get to the Super Bowl, Eagles, Niners, and Cowboys. And as much as we talk about, there's things change in the NFL year to year. Guess what? There's three teams in the NFC that can get to the Super Bowl, Eagles, Niners, and Cowboys. I think that's, you know, pretty easy for me. AFCs, now, AFC, I would say, all right, if you were Ravens, I think the Chiefs

obviously have to be in there. The Ravens with the way they've played obviously have to be in there. The Jags and the Dolphins, I mean, when I really am like squinting hard and being like, do I actually think they can win the Super Bowl? I think my answer is probably no. So if I were coming up with the conservative list, I would have them on there. If you said She'll trim it to five,

I would have a very easy time taking those two teams off. They would be the last two. So I think, right, those are the two that stick out like sore thumbs, right? And I think that that's absolutely fair. I would make my case for both. The first of the Miami Dolphins. Sheel, since week five, the dolphins are defensively, third by success rate and first in EP per drive.

All right. Now, is that sample slightly affected by the evolving opponents, the Giants, the Panthers, the Patriots, the Raiders, the New York Jets? Yes. No, come on. They more than that, yes. They also play the Eagles and the Chiefs, okay? But while obviously the resume and the schedule is pumping up the numbers a little bit,

they do pass the sniff test to be defensively. Well, hold on, but they had Jalen Phillips, who they just lost. I'm getting there. But they, I mean, you got to lead with that. They just lost, like, you know, one of their two best players. So I don't care about the numbers. All right. Go ahead.

You want to get a David Long takeoff? Go ahead. They signed Jason Beer Paul. Don't you worry about a thing. They tried to get Derek Barnett on waivers before they got Jason Pierre Paul. That's the status of the dolphins. No. David Long gave a quote in the middle of the season where he basically, it's not me with

David Long propaganda. it was long saying, man, there's a big Fangio defense. It's a little tough. You get your teeth around it. It takes a while to kind of figure out everything. Make you got your checks right. Who's going to be aware? Get the spacing right.

Once it starts to click, it starts to click. When the dolphins signed Fangio in, signed when they hired him as the defense coordinator back in the spring, we all kind of sat down and said, man, if they can produce that same offense with that defense, what big fanjo can bring to them, what a juggernaut this team will be. and it's so easy to have that take for all of the summer. And then for the first few weeks of the season, the dolphins aren't the best events in the leagues.

We forget about it. But that was the right take then. It is the right take now. Fangio is a high-impact individual to have wearing your colors on a Sunday. He is one of the very few meaningful defensive coordinators in the league. And you're seeing that, bad opponents, but you're seeing that displayed as the dolphins emerge into their season. The lack of Jalen Phillips is extremely worrisome.

It's very scary. It's an impactful defensive end for them. It's an impactful pass structure. I think that will impact the defense, no question. The degrees how much? If we go from being a top five to the top 12 defense, can still win with game plans, can still put up a nice playoff performance.

I think that's in the cards for the Dolphins, right? They're getting Jalen Ramsey back and they're getting him on board. He's been an impact player for them. They've got options, right? I jerk to up here, Paul, Van Ginkle, whatever. Like, there's stuff you can do. The health conversation for the Dolphins is a lot on the offense, where their interior office line play,

specifically their guard play with injuries to Rob Jones, Robert Hunt, has been unbelievably damaging to the team's ability to run the football. Like, it's been perilously bad play from their interior. Fixing that, I think it's going to help this offense get a shot in the arm. And so now you're back to the offense can beat you any day of the week because that's what McDaniel can do. And then also the defense has teeth now. To me, that team is still as thin as it may be a Super Bowl contender. So that's the Dolphins.

Yeah, I think just to finish on them, I mean, I think I mostly agree with you. Yeah, I still, like, I'm not. scared off by the fact that they had, you know, a few blowouts there against the Eagles and against the bills. I still think they are going to be a tough, tough team in the playoffs where they are right now. They're probably, you know, hosting a game in the wildcar round if they can hold on there in the AFC East. And so I would agree that they can win in different ways. Defensively, even if their defense is kind of stinks the rest of the way, when we get to the playoffs, I'll kind to be like, well, they might be able to figure out something special for this one game.

And offensively, I mean, they're just, they can turn the ball over. over three times and they can still score 30 points. So they can overcome things more so than any other offense. So, yeah, I agree with that. All right, Jaguars. So Jaguars, on the season, the Jaguars are top 10 defense by both success rate and EPA per drive. It starts with the defense as well. Like, if there is a unit in the league that I owed like a general collective apology to, it's this Jaguars defense. A lot of I was talking about that, that Bears team with like, oh, you're overspending, right? A lot of the transactions that Jaguars made to get their guys. Like, I liked Trayvon Walker, right? I like a Tyson Campbell.

I like a FOIA Luicom, but they were just spending money and premium picks. I was like, whoa, I don't know if this is good process. Well, the team's on the field now, and the team's pretty good. The play they've gone from Devin Lloyd and Oluacon out of late. Two players I've been very critical of. It's been huge to this team. Andre Sisko's now emerged as one of the better deep safeties in the league. Big for them.

They're surviving at corner, Darius Williams. And Campbell's a high impact player when he's healthy. Darius Williams is, I think, surviving a corner to a lot better than I thought he would be. Like, these are names, Devin, Devin. Lloyd, Aluacan, I've been extremely critical of these players in the past, and they've been stepping up now for pretty substantial periods of the time of the season. Mike Caldwell, man, like, he knows where his bread is buttered, right? They are very serious about stopping the run, and usually that's something that is not a good

thing for a defense coordinator to do, but they are so successful at it that they get into third and longs, and they win their third and lungs. They win them with coverage. They win with blitz packages, with disguise, and with good corner play on the outside. They've been a large enough sample now to say, like, this defense can keep ugly games close for the Jaguars. So offensively, it was always you and I kind of curling up

our lip and wrinkling our nose and saying this doesn't pass the sniff test. I might be a little bit early calling my shot, but over the last two weeks, this is past the sniff test shield. Yes, 100%. Trevor Lawrence is playing better, and I think the fact that he's been contesting

with a knee injury and he's had, got banged up in the Saints game and then practice before the Titans game. I think that can't be ignored. I think there might be something like, you know, he's been playing at 85, 90%, potentially some of that going on.

I think the offensive line play has improved Anton Harrison. Rookie Wright tackle for them as a player who has really settled into the back half of the season. Best, worst single game performance of Will Anderson, the rookie edge rusher this season came up against Anton Harrison in this most recent game. The Texas Jaguars played hugely important game. A matchup there in that game gave Lawrence time. And then they figured out some Ridley answers, right? They've said, okay, we're going to move around a little bit more when you get him off the line, get him tight to it, diversify his route tree, and all of a sudden he wakes up a little bit. This offense now looks a lot more like what we thought it would. And so

I might be a little bit early calling the Jags. Only two games watching that offense against the Titans team and Texans team that neither which is really known for their past coverage. But I tell you, I like what I'm seeing. I feel like I wanted this offense, the hands on the reins of this offense to be a little bit stronger on Doug Peterson, a little bit lighter on Press Taylor. And what I've watched the last two weeks reminds me of a Doug Peterson offense. And so to me, the Jaguars are a team that looks the way more I expected them to look on

offense. I believe in the defense that I'm watching. And hey, they're right there for the AFC one. Talk about that lines of potential of home field advantage in the buy. Right now, 16% chance, going to impredictable to get that one seat there, not to be counted out of that conversation. Week 15 against the Ravens, baby, circle it on your calendars. We got a game.

Yeah, I think if there's a, if you're looking for an under-the-radar team that can win the Super Bowl, I think the Jaguars are probably that team. And again, I'm not saying they're, you know, completely under the radar, but I think if other people made this list right now, they would be a team that might get left off. I'm with you on the offense. I mean, even this last game against the Texans, I mean, that game was close in the end. It didn't necessarily need to be that close. You know, they still had some issues where they're shooting themselves in the foot.

They throw the interception where it should be an obvious penalty. And that was maybe, we don't talk about officiating much here. Like, I don't know the names of the people who work that game. They should not be able to work a game. They should have to take like a two-week eye. That was a horribly officiated game. Like, you couldn't, as someone who hates the officiating conversation, 99% of the time, I could not watch that game and not be like, oh my God, like, what is happening

here? One terrible call, and then 17 makeup calls, and then I don't know what's going on. But anyway, I think you're okay looking at the last two weeks and saying like, well, it's only been two weeks because we saw like last year, the offense was really good and the offense was really good in the second half of the season. And Doug Peterson has a history. And we know what Trevor Lawrence looks like at his best. So yeah, I think the offense still has that untapped potential, that unrealized upside that they could just be like the top five offense

the rest of the way. And defensively, I'm with you. I mean, I looked at it in the off season and I go, this was a bottom five defense last year. They got lucky in a lot of areas, whether it was injury luck or turnovers. They didn't change their defensive coordinator,

it was Mike Caldwell, and they didn't really make any personnel moves. So it's like, how is this offense going to get better? Well, we underrate sometimes that young players can get better. I know I do. You look at it and say, yeah, maybe they can, but they don't always. And I think that has been the case here,

which are the same scheme, same defensive coordinator. The continuity helps and young players getting better help. So, yeah, I think you have a good list there. I'm looking at Fianndull to see if we're forgetting anybody. Did you think about throwing, well, you know what? This actually is just going to lead to my next point here. So let's take a break. I did.

I did think about throwing the Falcons in there, Sheila. I did. Oh, and that wasn't going to be no question. All right. Let's take one more break. Come back with our final takes. All right. My next take here, Ben, and these are two teams.

When I look at, all right, teams you left off, I've got the Texans and the Buffalo Bills making the playoffs. I will not give up on this Buffalo Bills team. I don't care what the percentages are. I watch that game on Sunday, and I watch Josh Allen play, one of the best games you will see a quarterback play all season long. We just take it for granted. The guy throws for 339 and runs for 81.

You know how many quarterbacks have thrown for 300, and rushed for 80 in a game. One, this season, it was Josh Allen on Sunday, in the rain, on the road against the defending NFC champs. And I know they're 6 and 6. I know they have a freaking tough schedule. I've seen the schedule. I think it's the hardest remaining schedule in the NFL.

I don't care. I'll be on an island here. Bill, I will not give up on this team. You cannot tell me there are going to be seven AFC teams that are going to be better than them that are going to make the playoffs. So Buffalo Bills, go on your buy. rest, relax, get treatment, get healthy. You got the chiefs and the cowboys coming off the by.

You got to win one of those games. They can win one of those games. I mean, come on, this team can beat anybody. You win one of those games, and then you got at the Chargers, Patriots at home, at the Dolphins. You're telling me you can't finish with three wins. You can't finish four and one. I don't know if they can't. The Chargers, they might just forfeit the rest of the season at this point.

I mean, the Patriots, give me a break. I know they beat the bills earlier this season, but still, give me a break. And then, you know, it comes down to one game against the dolphins. So there you go. I think they can go four and one down the stretch. If they go four and one, according to the New York Times simulator, they have a 62% chance to make the playoffs. I will be alone. You will not get me off of Bill's Island until they are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.

I will not give up on this. They're second in offensive team. They went up and down the Josh Allen. You know, everybody's got a place. He was doing the smart stuff. And then guess what? Third and long, hey, Josh Allen. Just go be Superman.

Okay, I'll do that over. And what if they have 13? You were giving me the numbers. He has 13 third down conversions, right? 13 to 22, yeah. Eight of them were like third and long. And he's getting pressured, and he's just making play. So there you go.

The defense isn't great. Defense being mediocre. Josh Allen put the team on your back. I know you did that Sunday and you still lost. I think it'll be enough. down the stretch to go four and one. So there you go. I'm not giving up on the bills to make a run down the stretch here.

Go ahead. Tell me I'm an idiot. So this Super Bowl list that I presented you with is the first one all year that hasn't included the bills, right? Like even in the middle of the season, they were like four and three or something. I can't handle it. And I'm not even a bills fan and I can't handle it. Impredictable has the bills with a 16.2% chance to make the playoffs.

All right. You have a, if you roll a six-sided die, you roll a D6, you have a 16.7% chance to guess the roll right, 1 and 6, all right? I have rolled a six-sided die. What number is it? Three. It's one.

Bills aren't making the playoff shield. It's two. I was going to say one. I was going to say one. It is too thin. They lost too many dumb games. They should have beat the Jets in week one. I know.

They should have beat the Broncos when they had 12 men on the field. If they were 7 and 5 right now, they'd be okay-ish enough. It'd be fine. But they made too many early mistakes, bad execution. shit and now it's a tough road to hoe, man, it is a long climb up. It is the toughest schedule. Getting the by week absolutely helps. I have no doubt in my mind that in that stretch of Chiefs, Dallas, Chiefs in Dallas weeks 14 and 15, I bet you they go one in one in that stretch at least. I have no doubt that they come out with an impassion of performance.

We know our playoff odds. Let's climb out of this hole together. That Josh Allen Eagle performance, that was absolutely the performance of a star player who knows that he needs to be the MVP every single week in order for his team to make the playoffs. So I've no doubt they're going to get a performance like that and they're going to have a big win against the cheats. They're a big winning against the Cowboys. I just don't think they can sustain.

I think they've had too many injuries on defense. They make too many execution errors throughout the course of a game. So I don't see it coming. What I love, oh, Sheila, I would love to get this bill seed in as a seven seed though. Just think about, you're the two, you're the two seed Jaguars.

You've got such a nice job managing your season. You're just a good, responsible team. You're ready to draw the cults. You're ready to get the Dorian Thompson, Robinson, Browns. And instead, you draw Josh Allen in the bills. You start shaking in your boots. Like, I would love the drama that that would introduce. I don't think we're going to get it.

All right. So you're out on the bills. I'm alone. If anyone wants to join, come join me. The other team is the Texans. What do you think the – do you know what the Texans are to make the playoffs? Right now, I've got it up here. What do you think it is?

not just gambling-wise. Texans, I mean, after the loss, it probably, what, like, plus $1.90? They are minus 104 to make the playoffs. Oh, okay. I was thinking, I was, you know, I was thinking about the division,

because I know they were plus 200 before the Jaguars lost, and I thought they'd still be up there. I mean, yeah. The Texans are making the playoffs. Like, come on. They're six and five. You know, I think they're going to grab a wild card spot.

They lost to the Jaguars. By the way, the Jaguars, deep, like, C.J. Shrout had to hold onto the football forever in that game, another feather in the cap of that Jaguar's defense. But guess what? He held onto the football. He made plays out a structure. Like, it looked like that Georgia game in college. He had to create quite a bit. They're going to have a top 10 offense, maybe a, you know, top eight, top five passing offense. And so I believe in this Texans team quite a bit. I think their remaining schedule is not hard. I don't have it in front of me here. I think it's like a bottom five.

remaining schedule. And so I think the Texans are getting it. I don't love their defense. Don't get me wrong. We saw it. They will give up some plays for sure. But that offense is like so, like there's, there's very few offenses that a week to week basis, I'm just like, they're not going to, you know, they're not going to have like back to back possessions or three possessions in a row where they look terrible. They're not, we've seen so many teams this year where you just sit down and watch and you're like, it feels so hard for the team to move the football. And they're the opposite. And so I've got the Bills and the Texans getting in. Texans have a better chance than the Bills.

But I'm going to say those two are in. Colts are out. Browns are out. Those two teams are in. There you go. My last take, I'm really very tempted to do, from the studio that brought you, the Falcons are making the playoffs. The Falcons are making the playoffs.

Because they are, Sheel. 52.5% chance. Get in the fourth seat, beat the Saints. Saints are super injured. Bucking ears are terrible. They are making the playoffs, but I won't. I won't. I'll wait to do my victory lap in a later time. Yes.

Stay in the NFC South. The Buccaneers should really look into tanking to make sure they get a good enough pick to draft the quarterback. Not something that you want to actively do and obviously do. It's too late, I think. You don't think it's too late for that? So right now the Bucs are four and seven. With an extremely weak strength of schedule, they have the capacity to get the early. earliest pick of the fourth and seven teams because, hey, they play in the NFC South,

really bad strength of schedule. So right now they have the seventh overall pick. The remaining four and seven teams, like right now the Titans have the tenth overall pick at four and seven. The Raiders, who are five and seven, have the 11th overall pick, right? There's a chance you're going to pick outside of the top ten with this record, but the Bucks are knocking on the door of the top five. This Bucks team has, I talked about like the Bears have a pretty good bedrock. This Bucs team is still a good bedrock. I thought that this team would be a seller at the trade deadline. They weren't bad enough to do that.

And so Mike Evans and Chris Godwin still in the building. Obviously, there's contract situations to figure out with Evans. But Trey Palmer is a young receiver who has had nice plays for them. I'm interesting to see what Trey Palmer's got. I think Rashad White has had himself nice season. Luke Dekke's had a nice season for the bucks. On offense, they've had young players step up into the roles they need to step up into and be pretty successful.

Baker Mayfield, who's been like fine in a bakery way, has been really the most limiting factor on this offense, in my opinion. Defensively, they're due for, I think, upgrade and do for a kind of like a facelift, kind of a say goodbye to the late 2010s era and move on to a new era. I don't know where you're going to be at on like Devin White and Levante David. David's still getting a little bit older as your linebacking duo moving forward. I think they'd probably need an additional move at corner. But they have the young man, Christopher Inzen, who's been a nice rookie find for them.

Juan Winfield will continue to be the heartbeat of that defense, in my opinion. Vita Vaya is still an excellent player. They've got a nice play to Collagicans. He was their first round big, a defensive tackle. They had a nice little spark of Yaya Diabi, who obviously was injured in this game, but has been a nice player for them over the last two weeks. There's good bedrock here. I think the team would be wise to see what they have in Kyle Trass over the remaining games.

Now, Ben famously said that he would wear denim if Kyle Trash started in a week one. So I was pretty positive that Baker Mayfield was better than Kyle Trass. I remain so, but I think seeing what you have in Kyle Trask is a very defensible decision because either he's good, unlikely, or you lose some games. And if you lose some games from the Bucks, the upcoming schedule for the Buccaneers is not a very tough schedule. They have the Panthers. But then Falcons, Packers, Jaguars, Saints, Panthers again, like, if they mess around

and they win these two games against the Panthers, mess around and beat the Saints, beat the Falcons, steal one of those games, they end up around 500, the quarterback future for them is going to be Kyle Trask and Baker-Mayfield again. This team is, to me, a team that is a very strong candidate for a Texans-like leap next year, whether that's with Todd Bowles, the current head coach or potentially with a different head coach, I can see plugging a rookie quarterback into this team and having a year-one leap. The reason why I landed on this take is because I started trying to figure out, like, okay, who could I see being the 20-24 Texans, where they just draft the rookie quarterback

early and immediate rocket ship? And I think the Bucks are a legitimate candidate for that. the Mike Evans contract situation is the tricky thing there. But like they keep him, even if they don't, Gobbin's still quite good. I think they can be that. And so for me, I'm starting to look at the top of this draft order and okay, the Giants are now four and eight. They've won themselves kind of out of the position.

The bears are four and eight. They've won themselves out of the position. There are no three lost teams. If you stay a four-win team the rest of the way, you can very realistically get a top five pick in this draft class. And that gives you the potential to move up for a guy, get QB3. if it turns out QB3 is a really strong candidate.

I like the Bucs as a team to make sure they secure a good draft position, get a rookie quarterback, and I think they could do a big 20-24 jump if they do. I just don't think that's how they've approached this. I think that ship has sailed quite a bit. I'm looking at the draft order you mentioned there. I mean, so you know, you've made the point before, like all these teams want, you know,

there's only one Caleb Williams and one Drake May. Now, I don't know if you're talking about guys below that or if you're talking about getting one of those two guys, but they're four and seven, and there are three teams with two wins or fewer. Like, are you going to be able to catch those teams? I don't think, like, I don't, I think the Bucks could still win the NFC South.

I know you don't, you don't think they can. They're what one game back, I believe, of the Saints and the Falcons, and you mentioned it, they don't have a tough schedule. I would have described, like, I'm not a Baker-Mayfield defender. I think he's been like, he hasn't been, I would say slightly below league. league average. I don't think he's killed them this year. I think their offense has had stretches where you go, wow, even that 49ers game a couple weeks ago. They had a couple of drives where you're

like, man, they're moving the ball down the field here. So I think he's been okay, obviously, if you can say, hey, get a CJ Stroud, get, you know, Drake Mayor, Caleb Williams next year on this team. Yes, that would be ideal. But I don't think that's how they approach this season. You mentioned it. They weren't sellers at the deadline. They weren't sellers before the season, just getting rid of all this young. The talent. that they have. I mean, some of these guys, I believe, are free agents at the end of the season, like in Antoine Winfield. Like, I think he's a free agent. Devin White is a free agent. So you could have moved off and said, all right, let's get some draft capital this season. We're in the post-Tom Brady era.

Let's move off these guys. They didn't decide to do that. I don't think they're going to decide to do that now. I think they're going to win some games. I don't think they're going to take. I think they're going to leave Baker-Mayfield in there. And I think like that NFC South, I think is going to come down to week 17 or 18. And like I'm telling you, I don't see a huge difference between the Falcon Saints and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And the Bucks defense was very injured this last week against the Colts. And so they lose that football game in Indianapolis. If those guys, some of those guys get healthy defensively, it can be a defense that at least keeps you in some games and gives other teams some problems. Yeah, I think they've

maximized their talent offensively. I've kind of been impressed with Dei Canalis quite a bit. Yeah, I think they've done a good job. So I don't know. You're confident that, They got no shot there. I saw that look, you gave me. I really don't think there's that much of a difference. The 11 and 6 Falcons are going to really embarrass you. Ag on your face, all right, when we get there. No, the injuries were they hurt against the Colts.

And I think that, right, when this team's at full strength, they're going to look a little better and they're going to be able to beat teams the caliber of the Colts. I just think they feel extremely destined for quarterback purgatory at this point, right? Like, Baker's... A lot of teams are, yeah, are in that situation. Yeah, Baker's on a one-year deal, but he's got four void years on it, which means that if they extend him, they can hold the money in the void years. I could very easily see this team finishing seven and ten

and then talking themselves into that decision. I just think that's a way to get a year older and not move in any direction. I don't think that you can talk yourself into Baker being the future of your franchise. If you're not going to take a look at Trask, then you don't have a young quarterback on your roster that you're interested in developing because you've had him there for years and you haven't had a chance to look at them. Like, you have to move on. You have to find a younger player.

So now you're in draft third round quarterback, draft second round quarterback, and continue to see if maybe he can be good enough to win him. But you're just fishing for Russell Wilson. You're just shooting blind in the dark for DAC. And if you hit, great, but you probably don't. Most teams don't when they're behaving like this. They had an opportunity to be better equipped for the end of the Tom Brady era

at quarterback. They weren't. I understand why that happened. I think that it's totally defensible. You have to get honest about the position, and you're a have or a have not, and the bucks right now are I have not. You can't continue behaving like you're a half.

Like I said, you just get a year older, you just get a year more expensive. You end up looking like the Saints' cap situation, man. You've had a close proximity to that. You should know what it looks like. So to me, I really want this Bucks teams. I like so many of the pieces to take the step back that's necessary

to take the three steps forward and to really invest in it in the quarterback position the way it needs to be invested in. I'm not sure they're going to, but I'm hoping that even if they're trying to win games, I'm room for the bucks to lose. I'm room for the bucks to get a low enough draft position that they can get the quarterback they deserve. Yeah, I would say, I mean, there's probably going to be 10 to 15 teams when we're doing

our offseason extra point takens. We're like, yep, they're in a similar spot where they don't have a great quarterback option on the roster and they don't have a great path to get a great quarterback. That is a big puzzle that a lot of these teams are trying to hold. I hear you, but to me there's like a big difference between having a Daniel Jones and having a Baker. Like, Jones can, like, do three things. Baker, to me, I don't hold those guys in the same tier. This season? I don't know. You think the Bucks would be dramatically different with Daniel Jones this year than Baker Mayfield? I think they'd be better. I don't think they'd be

dramatically better. I do think they'd be better with Jones. Yeah. Listen, Daniel Jones, Atlanta Falcons, we already got that in writing a few weeks ago. 2024. We'll talk about it. All right. Extra point taken. Last week, you closed the chapter on the Zach Wilson era. This week, I have to close a chapter, Benjamin Solek, one of the greatest streaks in sports is over. We've talked about it often on this pod. I know many of you listeners who tweeted at me and said, hey, we're complete a salsa. We listen to every minute of every episode. I appreciate that.

You tweeted at me as that it was unfolding on Sunday afternoon. So I haven't seen Solek that excited. He was very excited about it. The Steelers had gone 45 straight games. Matthew F. Canada, I don't know where its middle name is, without gaining 400 yards. The rest of the NFL in that span did it 33 times. It was a span from 2021 through Week 11 of 2023. Again, Steelers went 45 straight games without gaining 400 yards. The rest of the NFL did it 333 times last weekend. First game without Matt. It almost feels mean.

I feel like I'm being mean. It's just funny. It's okay. It's just sports. You know, he's making money. He's fine. The problem is it's sensational, right? It is a legitimate sensation.

I wish there was a good way to date a viz. The fact that the game right before they hired him, they had over 400 yards. And then the first game after they fired him after a total dearth. It's an incredible stat. So Steelers had 421 yards. was throwing the football in the middle of the football field. There weren't like, you know, there wasn't the caution yellow. No, do not.

No, he was allowed to throw the ball there. Pat Friermouth having a monster game. Run game outstanding. Credit to Benny Souls, who on the Friday show was saying, hey, Naji Harris is playing better football. That was like as good as Naji Harris has looked in his career on Sunday. He looked fantastic in that game. Jalen Warren could have used one more yard, but we'll get to that on the Friday show.

Tough, real tough one. So, yes, credit. to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The streak is over. If anybody has any suggestions on a new streak that I can be obsessed with something equally as stupid, that I can just tweet something out every week. The streak is alive.

I can use it in my column when I make the picks. I would really appreciate that. But Steelers win against the Bengals. Guess what? Mike Thomas is doing it again. What does he say? Our job is to win. And he just finds another way to win.

Right now, the Pittsburgh Steelers own the five seat. They're not even just sneaking. in the seven seed. They own the five seed in the AFC, Ben. Their remaining games, Cardinals, Patriots, Bengals, and then they have some tougher ones. If they go three and three, they're almost certainly going to make it to the post season. So numbers aside, I thought that was a very encouraging performance from the Steelers offense. Was it perfect? No, but it's like, ooh, it's like what we talked about a couple weeks ago. They have some good players on this offense where you, if you can get someone to put the quarterback in position to succeed and he

doesn't have to be perfect, then maybe you can do some things. They didn't light it up. They didn't have 30 points, but they move the football pretty well there. And I think it's encouraging as you look to the final six weeks of the season. The AFC wildcard teams, I talked about how if I ran into the bills, I'd be shaking in my boots, right? If we talk about teams that are like actually, actually making the AFC wildcard. We talk about the Texans, Steelers, Colts are there for some reason, who also got Browns, right? So about these teams that have good, legitimate shots here.

I really would not, like, I don't want to run into the Steelers team. Firstly, as I've always said about the team, we've said a thousand times, they drag you down to the muck and they make you play your game. You don't get to play, they make you play their game.

You don't get to play your game against the Steelers. You never do. Unless you're the 49ers. You only have to play their game of just, like, disjointed the drives and failed their down conversions and puns and field

position, they take out to the deep water and they know what it's like and you don't, right? And so, firstly, they're just there a tough draw. Secondly, and like, I didn't want to say this because I'm not ready for the take, but whatever, we're here. The offense is, they're good. Like, they're, they might be good. They might just be like, actually good. I've been so long a Steelers like, no, no, no.

Like, this team's definitely bad. But this running game, man, it is diverse. It's got multiple heads. They got a ton of good blockers. Like, they are, this running game is a handful with the way that Warren plays. then I think Naji is like a fine player. And then when they can actually utilize play action the way it's supposed to be used,

the number of people, Sheel, who on the first pass attempts, Pat Fryermuth, play action over the middle of the field, hit me up, right? You got Canada 400 yards. I got these flashed over the middle of the field. Yay! Like, they did what it's supposed to be used for.

When you get to leverage the running game and then leverage play action the way that you should, becomes like a little bit of a scarier offense. Obviously, only 16 points, but they had red zone turnovers. Like this, you know, in terms of expected point, it should have been a better day. this entire pot has been for some reason or another,

me just naming young players who have really settled in over the course of the season. So we should end on the crowning jewel. Joey, Porter Jr. Man, every time I talked about this Steelers team in the preseason, what I talk about, I said, I do not trust this secondary. I've looked at this corner room, they got no shot. Porter Jr. is going to get called for a couple penalties per game.

He's a young player. He's always been a grabbing player, whatever. But man, he's a blanket. I mean, he just takes the light out of the room. dude, he suffocates on the outside. He is a very, very impressive young player who they brought along in a nice way. That's helping solve one of their big problems that are on defense.

Porter Jr. has been a big part of that improvement. I think this deal is by the time we get to January are going to be like an actual real hard team to beat. Not a fake hard team to beat, though they already are that. They're also going to be a real hard team to be obnoxious. It's nice that you can, you know, you can come around here to the Pits. The 13th and offensive DVOA.

They have better in offensive DVOA than the Jaguars, the Packers, the Seahawks, like some of these other teams, they've played the hardest schedule of opposing defenses, which Matt Canada is probably like, you know, you could have pointed that out a couple of weeks ago to help my case a little bit, but it's only going to get easier from here.

So congratulations to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Again, if you have any recommendations on what I can do to fill this void in my life, now that I don't have that to tweet out anymore, to look up every week, I would really appreciate that. All right. Thank you to Benjamin Solac.

Thank you to Christopher Sutton for producing. Thank you to Ed. Eduardo Ocampo for his video production, additional production supervision by Connor and Evans and Arjuna, Ram Gopal. Next episode, Nora and Stephen with dual threat, then Solek and I will be back on Friday to talk about week 13 in the NFL.

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