The Ringer NFL Show - The Big-Time Moves From Free Agency Week | The Dantasy Football Podcast

Episode Date: March 19, 2020

The first week of free agency featured the shuffling of several high-impact fantasy players. We react to every player's new home, including DeAndre Hopkins, Stefon Diggs, Tom Brady, and others; highli...ght the biggest winners and losers from the week; and predict how each player's potential draft ranking for next season is affected. Hosts: Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly, and Craig Horlbeck Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Hey, it's Liz Kelly, and welcome to The Ringer Podcast Network. We hope The Ringer can provide you entertainment and companionship during this time. So as always, feel free to check out The Ringer.com, where we're still covering the latest in sports, pop culture, tech, and media. And the Ringer's YouTube channel can provide endless amounts of entertainment. You can find that at YouTube.com slash The Ringer. Welcome to the Dantasy Football Podcast on the Ringer NFL show, on the Ringer podcast network. My name is Danny Hyfitts, and I'm joined as always by my... co-host and Mikeo Danny, the hero we need and the analyst we deserve the Dark D.
Starting point is 00:00:54 Danny Kelly! How are you doing, D.K.? Your introductions are the only thing that are getting me through the coronavirus. So thank you very much for that. I'm doing well. How are you doing? I mean, shout out your endocrine system. That's also getting you to read a coronavirus.
Starting point is 00:01:07 Also my family, but, you know, those things too. I'll be in the Triumvirate. That's fine with me. My intro can be like the Holy Ghost of your Trinity. How is L.A.? How is L.A. doing? I am in New York. Oh, you're in New York? Wow.
Starting point is 00:01:22 Yeah, that's how much we've been in contact during the last week. Yeah, that's crazy. I have fled to New York to ride this thing out at home. Okay. Because why not? And you know who is in L.A.? Craig, how are you doing? We're doing this from three places right now.
Starting point is 00:01:38 Yeah, you didn't forget about me this time. Hi Fitz, you know, as the producer of this show, I was hoping, because we're all using microphones from home that are a little bit less capable as the ones that we have in studio. I was hoping that maybe, just maybe you would tone down the intro yell, but you didn't. You actually went the other way with it. Why didn't you like, tell me that? You went nuts with it. Well, we were just talking about how, you know, keeping the volume low and how when you're louder on the pod, it kind of peaks a lot and then you just went into a full scream. So we'll see. Maybe we'll redo it at the end, but maybe not. Yeah. Well, I guess how
Starting point is 00:02:11 how will the people listening know if we redid it or not? Is there like a way they can tell? No, I guess not. It depends. It all. all depends on a lot of different factors. Anyway, L.A. is, it's settled now. I feel like there was some panic and like over the weekend, but now everyone has seemed to kind of like figure out what to do and the streets are definitely a lot more empty, but it's not too bad. A lot of people are out walking their dogs. The grocery stores have calmed down, you know. Yeah, that's good. That's good. The traffic's gone. So we fixed L.A. traffic. We fixed L.A. traffic. How's the pollution? Is it better? I think so. I don't know. It's not really on my mind right now, but I can check in
Starting point is 00:02:47 on that. True. True. Okay. Anyway. Football. Still happening kind of. There was a lot of moves. It was, all right, weird few days for a lot of reasons. Even within the football world, it was a strange few days, even if everything else was not weird. Tom Brady, not on the Patriots. DeAndre Hopkins, not on the Texans. A lot of really weird things are happening. So let's just run through everything that's going on and just we'll talk about it through fantasy. Yeah, it's a lot of fantasy stuff.
Starting point is 00:03:17 that happened. Like, there's a lot of guys who are on different teams that are going to actually drastically affect the way that you draft them, I think, this year. But the big zoom out, Craig, you were the one who pointed this out to me. So I'm going to let you just hammer this home. Is this all good or bad? I think like 80% of these moves hurts everyone's fantasy value. And like, I think everybody actually got worse from a fantasy perspective. I think DeAndre Hopkins got worse. I think David Johnson probably got worse. I think Stefan Diggs got worse. I think all the receivers on the bucks probably got worse. I think Austin Hooper got worse. Interesting, very interesting.
Starting point is 00:03:48 What do you guys think about that? That was my impression, too, is as each move kind of went down the pike and came up on Twitter or whatever, I was, I don't remember being excited about hardly any of them. Like, the Teddy Bridgewater thing, like, does that help any of the guys on the Panthers? Does none of them feel like super duper exciting? I guess maybe you could say Hayden Hurst is the most exciting one, which is terrible. A guy who went from like kind of a backup to now a starter, I guess is good. but most of these steps are sideways steps rather than forward.
Starting point is 00:04:18 Yeah, like I would say, the majority are either neutral or negative. And so we'll get into the individual ones. You want to just start out with Hopkins because that was kind of the biggest blockbuster. I was going to say, let's start with Tom Brady in the bucks.
Starting point is 00:04:29 Let's just get right into it. Okay. Sure. So Tom Brady goes to the Buccaneers, replaces James Winston. Kind of perfect because they both ended their season by throwing a pick six. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:04:38 But obviously, so Tom Brady, little less pick prone than James Winston. I think James Winston. He set the record last year for seven pick sixes in his season. I believe Brady has six picks. I can't, wow, that's a tongue-fisher. Six pick sixes.
Starting point is 00:04:51 Six pick sixes. Brady has six pick sixes in his last 10 years. But everyone forgot the original point I was making because I tripped over my words so much. But the point is, it doesn't matter. So James Winston led the league in passing yards last year. Also led the league in pass attempts, but that's not as fun. But do you, what do you guys think of Brady on the bucks from a fantasy perspective? D.K.
Starting point is 00:05:13 I'm just going to steal Adam 11 times. tweet because I think he summed it up perfectly. He said from established a run, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are great players, but from a statistical perspective, they've benefited greatly from the wild aggression, league high A-dots, yolo-style shootouts of James Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brady is the opposite.
Starting point is 00:05:30 So essentially, I mean, you couldn't get more polar opposites in terms of style between Brady and Winston. I think the offenses are going to be very different style because there's not going to be a million turnovers. The game flow, the game scripts is going to be very different. I do think Godwin seems to have a better, like his outlook to me seems a little more stable than Evans. Like Evans, his range of outcomes to me changes. It could be, like, he could be,
Starting point is 00:05:57 you know, the next Randy Moss for all we know, but also I could see it like his, his value getting hurt quite a bit. And it's just because of Brady, he's 43, you know, the deep ball is not what it used to be. There's, there's tons and tons of questions on chemistry. There's, you know, it's a lockout, or it's not a lockout, but teams are not allowed to go in right now, because of the coronavirus, so that might get pushed back into the season, and maybe the chemistry won't be good to start the season. All those factors make me really worried, really for both of them. I do feel less worried about Godwin, but there's just a lot of uncertainty with these. And frankly, like you said, Danny, they're not going to pass more than any team in the NFL
Starting point is 00:06:33 probably this year. And the games are not going to be shootouts like they were last season. So it worries me. Craig, what do you think? You know, I don't want to sound like an O.J. Howard Pollyanna, but this is probably the best thing that could have happened for him, right? If anyone won this free agency, it might be OJ Howard, a tight end, an athletic tight end, who has a quarterback that has an entire career
Starting point is 00:06:55 of utilizing athletic tight ends. So where does he go this year? He might be in top 10 tight end getting drafted. So the other thing, the other factor that I was thinking through with this whole situation is, in history, Brady's very much relied on sort of like the underneath,
Starting point is 00:07:12 really shifty slobberst, the West Welkers, the Julian Edelman's. Is that what Chris Godwin is? Maybe, because Godwin has been playing in the slot in Aryan system. But some people were thinking, like, you know, Justin Watson or Scotty Miller might be kind of like really intriguing sleepers this season because Brady loves those underneath the guys that can kind of like run the option routes underneath and get open. So that's another interesting one. The other thing that I thought was very interesting is Brady's always relied heavily on running backs out of backfield, like James Wall. white, I guess,
Starting point is 00:07:45 archetype or whatever. And so it's going to be very interesting to see what they do at the running back position. Ronald Jones stands to potentially pick up a bigger role on the passing game in theory. But how's this pass catching? Because it was kind of disastrous when Ronald Jones was a rookie in 2018.
Starting point is 00:08:00 Last year he got better, but he couldn't have gotten worse. Yeah, that's kind of my impression too is coming out of college. He wasn't known to be a pass catcher. He did not do well as a rookie. And then last year he improved. So is, again, a huge range of
Starting point is 00:08:13 outcomes. They could end up, like, grabbing a guy in the draft. Clyde Edwards-Aler is kind of one guy that comes to mind because he's a really good pass catcher. So there's just a lot of uncertainty, but to me, there's some very intriguing factors with the, with the Buccaneers. If you have Evans or Godwin, or if you're thinking about drafting those guys, it makes you think a little bit, but there are potential sleepers in this offense, too, now I think are very interesting. So overall, it's a, it's going to be one, it's like all of a sudden the Buccaneers are a whole new ballgame in terms of fantasy. But specifically for Evans and Godwin, Evans and Godwin were both top five receivers in fantasy
Starting point is 00:08:47 and just whether you do full PPR or zero or half or whatever. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were top five fantasy receivers. Do you think, I mean, do they have any chance of repeating that? And do you think either them might be able to repeat with Tom Brady? I think Godwin has a better chance because he's in the slot. Brady's historically, he's targeted those guys in the slot a lot. He made, I mean, Edelman was a very high scoring fantasy player last year, too. So if Godwin ends up playing that role, then I think Godwin has a higher floor.
Starting point is 00:09:16 And again, like I said, Evans to me is more risky, but he's Mike Evans. He's awesome. And maybe him and him and Brady have this incredible chemistry. Oh, and the other thing I was going to bring up is there's these reports that he wants to bring Antonio Brown in. So Tom Brady does. And so, you know, that's his whole other variable. You know, Brown hasn't been cleared by the NFL and all that. But this just could be such a fascinating fantasy.
Starting point is 00:09:42 situation going forward. Yeah, I think the thing that is fascinating to me about this is just what the bucks are going to do with their offense because Bruce Ariens has been known ever since he was the offensive coordinator. I mean, the last 12, 13 years, he has been about deep chucking in the ball downfield. They always lead the league or Bruce Arryn's offenses always lead the league in how far the ball travels in the air on average. So in terms of just raw pass attempts, James and Brady actually weren't that far apart last year
Starting point is 00:10:10 because James led the league, where I've retired with Jared Goff. 626. And then Tom Brady had 613. So you're like, oh my God, like Tom Brady threw less than one pass per game fewer than James Winston last year. Not that big of a difference. But how far the ball was traveling was a big difference. James Winston was throwing the ball more than 10 yards downfield on average. So his average pass crossed the first down boundary. That's how far James Winston slinging. I think he was second to Matt Stafford. Tom Brady was like 25th. Tom Brady was closer to seven yards, seven yards a pass. So when you translate that to their 600 plus passes,
Starting point is 00:10:45 James Winston threw the ball roughly six and a half thousand yards through the air last year. Tom Brady threw the ball through the air like four and a half thousand yards. So you're asking Tom Brady to do what James Winston did last year, basically up how far the ball traveled 150%. That's not going to work. So they're going to have to do more quick pass. I mean, this isn't rocket signs,
Starting point is 00:11:05 but they're really going to have to philosophically scale down what Arians does, bring that more quick passing in. They need a running back. Honestly, they need Austin Echler from the Chargers. I was laughing because when it was between the Bucks and the Chargers, it seemed on Tuesday, Austin Echler is like the most Patriot-like player that's never a bit played for the Patriots.
Starting point is 00:11:23 And the Bucks need a player like that. I mean, they need a lot of things. They need a right tackle, for starters. But I'm really dubious about Evans and Godwin, who won. They got a lot of time and garbage time. A lot of those yards from James Winston came when he had thrown pick sixes. they were behind.
Starting point is 00:11:38 They're trying to catch up. I think that Tom Brady is a better football move for the Bucks. I think the Bucks will be a better football team with Tom Brady. They're more likely to win games. I think he's going to seal more stuff in the fourth quarter. But that means less garbage time passing. He's not going to lead the league in passing yards because I think the Bucks are going to really scale down what they're doing in the fourth quarter. They might have to be running the ball more.
Starting point is 00:11:59 So I think that Evans and Godwin are going to have way less targets and wayless downfield targets. So I would be weird because they probably were both locks to be taken in the top 10. among receivers and drafts with James coming back. Now they're probably a better football team, but they're probably, you know, they're probably just top 15 options now because you don't know which is which. And that seems to be the theme of the whole free agency
Starting point is 00:12:18 is just better football teams, but worse fantasy football production. Which brings us right into DeAndre Hopkins and the Cardinals. Yeah. Speaking of which, DeK, what do you think of DeAndre? First of what do you think of the Cardinals looking like with DeAndre and then how does that transition? Wait, wait, wait, wait. Can we first just like get out like our,
Starting point is 00:12:34 just like our what the fucks? Oh, the end, but what's not. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I had flashbacks to the O'Dell trade because I read it first in Peter King's column This would first of all I don't know this did not exist There was no inkling of this
Starting point is 00:12:48 It did not exist And then Peter King wrote on Monday morning In his I mean it's Monday morning quarterback column Or used to be now it's football morning in America But everyone just calls it Monday morning quarterback still And he's like by the way like don't freak out Like Dionne John Hopkins might get traded I'm just saying like he literally filed it under
Starting point is 00:13:03 I'm just saying in his column And then six hours later it happened This would be like if the real Trader traded Danny Hyfitz for my eight-year-old nephew Nico. And Bill Simmons just tweeted that. And we're like, wait, what does Nico do? Like, oh, nothing. He actually, he didn't really do anything last year.
Starting point is 00:13:18 He just sat in his couch and ate apples. There's so many aspects of it that are hilarious. Never mind, like Stefan Diggs going for a first round pick, even though he hasn't made a pro bowl, I don't think. And DeAndre Hopkins has been first team all pro each of the last three years. And then there's just, but my favorite aspect of all is just people saying, well, how did this happen? And then it's, well, the answer, how it happens?
Starting point is 00:13:38 Bill O'Brien is the coach and the GM. And their next best front office personnel is Jack Easterby, who was the team chaplain for the Patriots, who doesn't really have a traditional football background. He's not really been a coach, like a football coach. He's not really been a scout. He's just a chaplain. And like these are two of the three guys
Starting point is 00:13:56 who are really doing their front office decision making. And this is just what Bill O'Brien's been doing. And they traded for David Johnson. They already traded for Duke Johnson last summer. And they gave up a third round pick for Duke Johnson, which was, as Evan Silva had established the run pointed out, the most any teams paid for any running back in years, and then didn't even play him.
Starting point is 00:14:14 They had their starter be Carlos Hyde, who they also traded for. They traded him for the Chiefs, even though the Chiefs are probably going to cut Carlos Hyde. And they gave up Martinez Rankin, who ended up playing a lot of games for the Chiefs, and probably would have started for the Texans at one point. So they gave up a starting guard for Carlos Hyde,
Starting point is 00:14:31 who they could assigns a fee. And then they gave a third round pick for Duke Johnson, who they didn't really play. And then now they're trading, DeAndre Hopkins for Duke for a second rounder and David Johnson who is the fourth most expensive running back
Starting point is 00:14:45 in football even though he got 19 carries in the final seven games last year or sorry 18 carries in his final seven games when he was healthy as well yeah so that and that's oh my god there's so many aspects in this so the part of the I guess the funny thing is that before the DeAndre Hopkins part came out trading for David Johnson alone is a terrible
Starting point is 00:15:04 idea yes because we love David Johnson he's healthy. The Cardinals said he was healthy. The Cardinals, I mean, we can just say they're lying because, I mean, the alternative is David Johnson just got his powers sapped like he was in space jam because he just got 18 carries for 47 yards in the final seven games. Now, he was dealing with back and ankle problems in October. The Cardinals didn't list them on the injury report. I feel comfortable saying it's more likely that David Johnson was still dealing with the back and ankle injuries than he was perfectly healthy but benched for the final two months as Kenyon Drake became a top eight running back for the final seven games,
Starting point is 00:15:36 while David Johnson was barely a top 80 running back for the final seven games by fantasy points. So anyway, you're paying all this money now, the fourth most expensive running back for a guy who got benched and has injuries. And you gave up DeAndre Hopkins. Maybe you need a GM. Maybe GM's a full-time job. It just makes me mad. I feel so mad for Texas fans, Texans fans.
Starting point is 00:15:59 Just I would be, I would be furious. if I was a Texan's fan. Dude, yeah. Because it's like, when Odell got traded, you know, I'm shamelessly, like, I love the Giants, but at least the Giants got a first-round pick for Odell Beckham.
Starting point is 00:16:14 Yeah. I mean, okay, so the Athletics Shield Capadia actually said this in an article when they were reacting to this Stefan Diggs trade. And he said, and this is absolutely true, the price for a number one receiver
Starting point is 00:16:27 starts at a first-round pick. And Hopkins is like a top-three receiver. It just makes no sense. They've traded now they've traded Jadavian Clowny and DeAndre Hopkins and they have no first round pick. And it's just absolutely absurd. It's absolutely ridiculous. Like it makes me mad. I don't understand how Bill O'Brien, not only does he have a job, he keeps getting more power.
Starting point is 00:16:51 I don't know. It's like, it's like, Danos acquiring the gems. It's like I Lord of the Rings, worm tongue. But there's just speaking into the king of Rohan. But no, there's so many people made the same joke at the same time. where this would get vetoed in fantasy football. Or at least if it was made, everyone would text the owner like,
Starting point is 00:17:08 why didn't you text me? Why did you ask? I would have beaten this offer. And that's actually the real similarity of the Odell trade where the Giants did it. And you're like, did they call other people? Because clearly the bills probably would have done
Starting point is 00:17:20 the DeAndre Hopkins thing. Yeah. So, I mean, if they gave this much up for digs. So the funny thing to me is just there are basic aspects of the job that Bill O'Brien's not doing. This is kind of a non sequitur.
Starting point is 00:17:30 But when they traded for Laramie Tons They gave up two first round picks and his second round pick for Laramie Tunsell and a package around him. But then when you do that, when you give up your mortgage of the future of your franchise, you make sure that the player sends a contract extension. Right. Because Laramie Tunsell's a free agent at the end of this year. And if he leaves in free agency and you gave up two first and his second, you are, your franchise is dead. So when the Bears traded like a similar package for Cleo Mac, he signed the extension within an hour because they had already negotiated it.
Starting point is 00:18:00 Bill O'Brien traded all that for Laramie Tunsell, but then did. didn't get an extension. So Laramie Tunsell can ask for whatever he wants to be the Texans left tackle because if he leaves, fans will come and try to defenestrate Bill O'Brien. So he lost so much leverage on the Laramie Tunsell stuff that they're like, we can't pay D'Andre Hopkins. So DeAndre Hopkins comes to them and wants a contract extension. They're like, oh, crap, we don't have the money for Laramie Tunsell to Sean Watson and DeAndre Hopkins. And we have to pay Watson and Hopkins. Or sorry, we have to pay Watson and Tunsell. So they had to get rid of DeAndre Hopkins. How nuts. It's so. It's so.
Starting point is 00:18:33 it's like you cut off your nose to spite your face and then you cut off your ear to put where your nose was. Let's let's talk about the fantasy implications. It's just made me mad. It's awful. Wait, wait, wait, hi Fitz. I'd like to play a quick game with you if we could. I just thought of this. I want you
Starting point is 00:18:49 to be, you're going to pretend that you're Bill O'Brien at a press conference and you have to defend this trade and make it sound as reasonable as possible. All right, yeah, you're going to be reported? Yeah, I'm ready. Okay. Thank you, everyone. I'm open to a question. Yeah, Mr. O'Brien. What the fuck?
Starting point is 00:19:07 A lot of people out there are highly, highly curious about this decision-making process as the GM of the team. How do you explain yourself? Look, we do what we think is best for this football team. I mean, that's what we do. We do what we think is best. And we're looking to the season. We're really excited. We got a fantastic player in David Johnson.
Starting point is 00:19:24 I mean, we want to be very clear. We appreciate DeAndre. We love DeAndre. Everything he's done for this franchise will be impossible to replace. But we're really excited about what we got for this football team. We got a great draft pick. Our personnel, our scouts are really excited about this year's draft and excited to pick up a couple picks
Starting point is 00:19:39 and we're really excited for what David's going to bring to this team. Follow up. Was this the best package you could have received for DeAndre Hawkins? You know, I can't discuss about specific packages. We're not able to discuss that, but we're very, very proud of the return that we got. He's pretty good at this. Yeah, that was good. That was really good.
Starting point is 00:19:58 All right. Now, I have a question for you guys now. DeAndre Hop, I mean, the Texans thing we could talk about. about forever. But let's not. DeAndre Hopkins on the Cardinals, do you agree or disagree? My initial reaction is this is great for real life football. I think it's bad for, I think he's a lesser fantasy asset than he was two days ago. What do you think,
Starting point is 00:20:17 D.K.? Yeah. At best, maybe it's like a neutral move just because maybe, you know, in that offense is ascending. And Kyler Murray obviously had a really good season. You know, maybe his efficiency would be a little bit better. But like, Hopkins has been an absolute target hog over his career, you know, 150 targets last year. That was like you could bank on targets going to Hopkins with Watson under the center. So it's like that, they had that great connection. Overall, you're going into a system now where number one, you're going to have to find chemistry with the quarterback. Number two, you might not have the same target share as
Starting point is 00:20:52 what you had before with Houston. You know, you're going to a team with Christian Kirk, with Larry Fitzgerald, who's probably going to get a ton of targets still, even though he's, you know, getting up there in age. They like to run a lot of four-wide stuff where they spread the ball around. So, yeah, I mean, I would say he's still, I think he's still a valuable and good fantasy asset, but I would say his values, certainly, if not neutral, it's gone down a little bit. I think we're going to see him drop a little bit. On the other hand, on the other hand, this is great for Kyler, though, I think.
Starting point is 00:21:24 Well, there's also a philosophical difference between kind of what the Texans and the Cardinals do, right? Because the Texans have not been afraid to look at DeAndre. I think he has the second most targets over the last four years. He's only behind Julio. He has almost 1,000. But in Arizona,
Starting point is 00:21:37 Cliff Kingsbury's whole offense is in part designed around spacing. It's not so much the talent of the individual receiver, but just if you're mastering a certain subset of certain plays that someone's going to be able to look, but obviously they didn't do as much air rate.
Starting point is 00:21:50 It's by definition of what Kingsbury is doing with the Cardinals, one receiver is probably not going to get 170 targets in a year. Are they? Or are they going to change it? Well, the only way that I could see this working out is that if the Cardinals run like way more plays than Houston was running. And so I guess there's like that option and where he could end up seeing a crap ton of targets just because they're running so many plays, you know, where they're speeding up and trying to run like 80 plays a game or whatever.
Starting point is 00:22:22 You know, no one runs 80 plays a game, but they're trying to do that. That is one scenario, I guess. I could see where Hopkins could potentially gain value just because, you know, they're running so many plays and scoring so many points and all that. But, I mean, I don't know if they're there yet. I don't know if they were quite to that spot for 2020, especially. Quick name game for you. 2020 fantasy drafts. Obviously, Michael Thomas, first receiver off the board, probably.
Starting point is 00:22:46 Do you like DeAndre, Mike Evans, or Chris Godwin more now? Godwin. Yeah, I think so. I think I agree. That order? Say what's the order again? say the order again? How would you order DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, and I almost said Chris Evans, Shadow Captain America.
Starting point is 00:23:05 Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and DeAndre Hopkins. How would you order them? They're all on the board. Who do you want to take? I would say Godwin Hopkins Evans. I'm not overreacting too much to this. I think I am. I think that this has the potential to be catastrophic for DeAndre Hopkins from a fantasy standpoint. And it's for every reason you guys just said. They're going to spread the ball around a time. Carla Murray is not as good of a quarterback
Starting point is 00:23:28 as Sean Watson yet, we know. Christian Kirk and Larry Fitz each had 100 targets last year. Everyone's going to get the ball. They're going to go four wide a lot. And they don't have the chemistry. And I can see it right now. Week six, the roto world blurb is going to be like,
Starting point is 00:23:42 DeAndre Hopkins still working on chemistry with Kyler Murray. After a slow start to the season, we're hoping that the second half, you know, DeAndre can come back to that wide receiver one status that we're used to, but don't hold your breath. Like, I can see that right now. Craig, to that point,
Starting point is 00:23:55 I actually asked my buddy Scott Barrett about this. He had a stat. So this was from before. He gets flexing recently. My good friend is all over us. Holy crap. My good friend Scott Barrett, who's a super cool guy. And you guys don't know him as well as I do.
Starting point is 00:24:10 I'm like, we're tight. Yeah, we can tell. Wow. Wow. Jeez. Just going to. Anyways, he sent me this study that he had done. And this was from 2018, March of 2018.
Starting point is 00:24:21 So before the 2018 season. So it could be a little bit out of date. But he said, among top 48 receivers in ADP since 2010, so like a seven, eight year sample size, only 33% beat ADP and only 31% improved in FantasyPoint. So about a third of receivers changing teams. Sorry, that was among top 48 receivers that changed teams. Only a third of those receivers got better or improved their ADP in Fantasy Point. So the odds are against him, frankly.
Starting point is 00:24:52 So what you're saying is, is I should not be excited about random. Coddell Cobb on the Texans. He's not a top 48 guy. Randy's in a tough spot. Speaking of receivers who got traded, the other big one that got dealt was Stefan Diggs was sent to the bills late Monday night. He got sent for four picks,
Starting point is 00:25:11 all of which were, it seemed like a way better package than the Vikings. He's better get used to four picks with Josh Allen. Heyo. Oh, wow. Look at you. That was good. Yep.
Starting point is 00:25:20 Wow. That was really good. Look at Craig. All right, D.K. What do you think of Diggs and the Bills? So this is one of those scenarios where he kind of, I think, like, whined enough that he got his team to trade him. But the landing spot is certainly probably not what he had in mind. Yeah, is this like Siberia?
Starting point is 00:25:38 Like he got exiled? Yeah. It's like the Dark Night Rises. It almost feels a little bit like the Vikings did this despite him. I'm sure that's probably not what they did because they did get a great ball. Also, I apologize to the bills fans who are so pissed that we just said that. I'm sorry. Here's the deal.
Starting point is 00:25:53 I love Buffalo. Here's the deal. He was in an offense with a very, very accurate depal passer. You know, he's an elite route runner right now as Stefan Diggs is. And frankly, Kirk Cousins is just ahead of where Josh Allen is as a passer. Like, that's not. Well, it's not just that. It's, are they not in terms of their play? Or is there any two players, I mean, outside of like literally like, look like, is Kirk Cousins and Josh Allen not the two most opposite players in football in a way? Kirk Cousins, who has a couple seasons up there almost at NFL record levels for completion percentage. And then there's Josh Allen who might miss Stefan Diggs by his screen by nine feet over his head. I never was a huge Diggs guy in the first place because I was always worried about the Vikings offense and how they split up the volume and that it was a run heavy offense and all that. And I'm still in that boat. I'm probably not going to be drafting Diggs a ton in fantasy drafts.
Starting point is 00:26:45 I do think he is the perfect option for the bills at this point. for Josh Allen's development, getting the wide receiver one, you know, a very, very elite route runner, guy that can get open, all that stuff. I think he's going to be great for Josh Allen. And I think eventually, you know, that's probably going to be a very strong connection. But initially in 2020, I'm definitely leery about kind of how he's going to, he has, like, to me, a lot of boom-bust game-to-game sort of profile where he could go off for a touchdown in a hundred yards in one game and then have like two catches for 30 yards in the next game,
Starting point is 00:27:19 type of thing. So it makes me nervous. Diggs, I think, is like actually one of the better. I think he's like, talent-wise, maybe a top 10 receiver in the NFL. And giving him to Josh Allen is just, it's basically like if you gave a filet mignon to
Starting point is 00:27:35 like a college kid and said, cook this. That's what, that's what Josh Allen is going to be like with stuff. I think it's, do you guys know anyone, do you guys know anyone who broke up with someone and then their next partner was the exact opposite of the other person.
Starting point is 00:27:51 Because I know a few people like that. It happens all the time, yeah. Yeah, well, I think that's what this is. And I wonder if Diggs is either going to be like super happy, but then eventually might realize all the parts of Kirk Cousins that he never knew were really important. Like, you know, the screen passes are catchable. And I think that that's, it would be very interesting to see the highs of like when he
Starting point is 00:28:09 catches those, like an 80 yard touchdown the first time. But also the lows of like when he just has no catches because both ends of it will be more extreme. Yeah, he'll run a bubble screen. It'll be like a 98-mile-on-hour fast. ball up in a up and away he'll have to try and reel that in and he'll be like you know what i kind of miss kirk for also just the two of them like the interacting is like personality stephan diggs is a charismatic dude josh howan diggs hit kirk cousins with a you up text like week four that wasn't
Starting point is 00:28:39 quite what i had in mind just like a hey man just wanted to check in on you see how things are going like buffalo's been like it's been pretty tough for me but um you know just wanted to see like how you're doing. Who was the NFL play? Jordan Matthews who said there's nothing doing Buffalo except each other. And that's why you had like two kids while he was a bill. Anyway, that's right. Let's move on. I was going to ask you guys actually first, what does this mean for the Vikings? I think obviously Adam Thielen is the big winner here for Minnesota. But what I guess are they going to draft receiver? There's no really way of knowing. What it means for Minnesota is that they have spent three years trying, or four years.
Starting point is 00:29:19 years trying desperately to find a number three receiver and they have failed. They thought it was Lequan Treadwill, Chad beat, like they have not been able to find a number three. Now they need a number two and they cannot screw it up. Is Olabisi Johnson kind of a sleeper? You tell me, you're more informed on the Olabisi Johnson train than I am. I don't know a lot about him. I know he's very athletic. He flashed at times last season. if they don't add a receiver out of this, because Treadwell is a free agent,
Starting point is 00:29:52 I remember there was some sort of hype on Chad Beebe last year before the season started. I don't know. But look, they picked up four picks for Diggs, and this is the deepest receiver draft in somewhere between like 10 and 30 years. So if there's ever going to be a year
Starting point is 00:30:06 that they can fill the void, I think that this is going to be it. But they have to because Thielen has, Thielen now is number one, gives me a lot of Juju Smith-Schuster vibes. Not that because they're similar players, but because Juju going into the number one last year without Antonio Brown, I think it's a similar thing of,
Starting point is 00:30:21 is the only going to be able to produce at the level he was without a master route runner like digs across from him. And then also whether not only can the Thiel and produce, but can he open things up for, you know, Kyle Rudolph or Smith. A lot of questions from that Vikings team now that digs. But that's actually a good point though,
Starting point is 00:30:36 is I kind of like this for Irv Smith. He's kind of a sleeper at the tight end position just because, you know, there's so many, so many targets opening up. he flashed a lot as a rookie, I think. He was second rounder for them last year. He's more of a past catching tight end.
Starting point is 00:30:51 So that's actually something. That's a good thought. I kind of, he's definitely more intriguing. He forgot about him. I think everyone forgot about Irv Smith. I mean, I like Irv Smith.
Starting point is 00:30:59 But yeah, I kind of just. I mean, I think the reason it's weird it's because they drafted him and then they gave Kyle Rudolph the extension and the expectation was that if he drafted a tight end,
Starting point is 00:31:07 I think he was, you know, top. I remember he said first round or very early second. But when you draft a tight end that high, they thought, oh, he's going to replace Kyle Rudolph. and then he kind of played second banana to him. But he'll probably be a much larger,
Starting point is 00:31:17 much larger role going forward. Do you guys want to hit some tight ends now? Speaking of Irv Smith, we got four tight ends who moved this offseason. Yeah. We got Hayden Hurst to the Falcons, Austin Hooper to the Browns, Jimmy Graham to the Bears,
Starting point is 00:31:30 and Greg Olson a little while ago to the Seahawks. Which is the best move out of those three? It's got to be Hayden Hurst, right? Yeah. I mean, I think Hurst is for sure in line to have a huge, huge, boost. In terms of like the guys that are most likely a huge boost, Hurst is the clear winner here, I think. Yes, I agree. Unless you draft in like June, Hayden Hurst is going to be the guy in August
Starting point is 00:31:54 who's going so early because of the hype train on him that it actually won't be a value anymore. I mean, honestly, so like Hooper, we have a funny kind of inside joke about Hoover because he went to middle school with Craig. Is it middle school or what was it? Yeah, middle school. Pine Valley What happened he beat you up when you were in, played baseball? He struck you out. He struck you out. He struck altercation. No, no, no, no. We played intermurals together. We played Little League Baseball against one. Oh, okay. Anyway, he is, I think my take on Hooper is that he is a reliable guy. He's athletic enough, good hands, to be sort of an underneath intermediate option in the passing game. He's not a clear number one tight end. I would say that's probably in the exact
Starting point is 00:32:37 same role or area that I put Hayden Hearst. I think he, I mean, he was a first round pick. older prospect because he played baseball for a couple years and flamed out in baseball and then he went back to football. But he's athletic. He can move. He's got reliable hands, I think. So to me, like, Hearst could kind of just inherit that Hooper role. He does have to kind of figure out the chemistry and all that stuff. But, you know, he could have a good amount of targets in that offense and kind of come out of nowhere. And it's a perfect landing spot for him just because you kind of just slot him into that Hooper role. Yeah, he's going to be, he's going to be a big one. What about the, the actual Austin Hooper, who went to Cleveland.
Starting point is 00:33:15 I was surprised they did this. I mean, they've already spent so much money and invested in that offense. They gave Landry and Odell big deals. They've got Nick Chubb. They've got Kareem Hunt. They have a lot of talent on that offense. But I was surprised they added Hooper. What do you think of Hooper in Cleveland?
Starting point is 00:33:28 Yeah, I think it's a huge downgrade for him. I just don't know if he's going to be able to see the type of targets that he saw in Atlanta. I don't know if the role is going to be different. You know, going with kind of what we saw in Minnesota with Kevin Stefanski, the tight ends were not like a huge, huge focal point of the offense. I mean, they're part of it for sure.
Starting point is 00:33:49 But they do a lot of two tight end sets. And Joku is still a big part of this. You know, I don't know if that's going to mean if Njoku stays, if he's still there, their former first rounder had been kind of not happy with the team in the past. You know, he's on a really easy, cost-controlled contract right now.
Starting point is 00:34:09 So they could keep both those guys, Joku. and Huber. So those guys could eat into their, into each other's kind of, you know, target share and all that. Plus you got Landry, you got Beckham. You got,
Starting point is 00:34:20 Kareem Hunt, who was a huge part of the passing game for them too. The tight-end positions at a weird spot, but I think in a nutshell what we're looking for is, you're looking for a guy who's going to be first or second in their team in targets. Obviously, first is, you know, the elite category, Travis Kelsey, maybe George Kittle. But you want a guy who could be second on his team in targets. Like, truly their team's number two,
Starting point is 00:34:40 receiver. Those are the people who pan out. Austin Hooper last year was second in the Falcons and targets. You know, you want a player who emerges like Mark Andrews, who's going to be almost leading the team in targets. I have no, I, something seems to have gone wrong of Austin Hooper's second on the Browns and targets last year ahead of either Odell or Jarvis. That just seems really unlikely to me. So I think, Hurst on the Falcons is a much better shot of it than, but even them, I think he might be third to Hooper. But what do you think about Greg Olson and the Seahawks and Jimmy Graham on the Bears, both of which I thought were
Starting point is 00:35:09 surprised by both of these. Do you think either those guys might be second on those teams and targets? No. I think for the Seahawks is going to be for sure Metcalf and Lockett. And then I think it's probably going to be a platoon type situation.
Starting point is 00:35:25 The Seahawks have so many tight ends right now. So I do think Greg Olson is a good player. I think he's going to be, you know, not like a dangerous weapon for them, but he'll be useful for them in that offense. I think Russell Wilson will look for him. He's a reliable pass catcher, all that stuff. But the Seahawks also have Will Disley,
Starting point is 00:35:39 who's coming back from another injury. So his timeline for return is uncertain. I think he tore his Achilles this time. He tore his Patelor tendon two years ago and then his Achilles. It's like two of the worst injuries that football player can have. They also just tendered Jacob Hollister
Starting point is 00:35:56 at a second round level, I think. So he's going to be back. They just signed Luke Wilson. So it's a really crowded group. I don't think any of these guys are going to be super high fantasy targets for me. If they produce, it will not be predictable when they produce, who plays, who catches the touchdown. Even if you could somehow predict the points or the yards touchdowns for the Seahawks' tight-end position this year,
Starting point is 00:36:19 knowing which of these guys gets it and which play and which week is probably going to be a fool's errand. I think Olson's a way bigger name than he is a producer at this point. And, I mean, I feel the same way about Jimmy Graham on the Bears. Do you disagree with me? I think Graham is the same thing. I think he's a bigger name than a producer on the Bears this year. The Bears have a similarly weird situation at tight end. They gave Trey Burton a lot of money.
Starting point is 00:36:39 That was a disaster. They have Ben Brownacker. I can pronounce his name. They drafted Adam Shaheen in the second round and he hasn't done anything. Number one, the signing is mystifying because Graham just wasn't effective last year playing in that offense. I don't know how they got. What did he get like $9 million guaranteed or something like that? So I don't know what the bears have in mind for him.
Starting point is 00:37:03 I'm not optimistic about it. I don't think, again, I don't think he's going to be like a big time reliable fantasy guy. Well, the real question is that often. So they just traded for Nick Foles. They sent a fourth rounder to the Jacksonville Jaguars for Foles. The Jaguars are eating like $18 million of dead money or something to be getting rid of Foles. They paid him $30 million for what amounted to 370 days as a Jacksonville Jaguar. I think it's like $80 grand a day for Foles to be there, which is pretty good work if you can get it.
Starting point is 00:37:31 So now he's on the Bears. RIP to Mitchell Chubisky. We can save that for another time. What do you think of the Bears offense now with Foles? I like it a little bit more, for sure. I think, well, I shouldn't say for sure. That's a dicey comment. But I'm more bullish, I would say, on the Bears with Foles under center than I would be with Chubisky.
Starting point is 00:37:56 I just, you know, call me a hater if you want. I'm just not a Trubisky believer. I just don't see it. I don't think you have to be a hater. I think you have to be an observer. Yeah, the bears don't see it either. I do think it makes a lot of sense for where he lands. Obviously, he has the experience with Matt Nagy.
Starting point is 00:38:14 You know, he's got experience in that type of scheme where it's a lot of RPO's. You know, I think he's going to feel comfortable in that scheme. He can hit the ground running. I do think he's going to be better for that offense than Mitchell Chubisky, which, again, is a low bar. but, you know, I think overall I'm a little bit more excited for what Alan Robinson could do, Anthony Miller could do.
Starting point is 00:38:38 Even the run game might be a little bit better just because their offense is overall a little bit more efficient. I'm not expecting anything huge from the Bears, but I don't know. I think it's certainly an upgrade for them. Look, I mean, Bear,
Starting point is 00:38:51 bare bones here. The Bears were 29th in points per game last year. 17 and a half points per game. They're only head of the Bengals, the Jets, and Washington. They were 31st. in yards per play. 4.7 yards per play for the Bears. Only ahead of the Jets,
Starting point is 00:39:07 the dolphins and the Bengals did better in yards per play than the Bears did last year. I mean, honestly, I can't remember most seasons are just straight up not like this. The Bears,
Starting point is 00:39:18 I think we learned everything we needed to learn in week one, literally the first game of the season, Bears Packers, the Bears defense dominates Green Bay. They harassed Aaron Rogers all night, hold the Packers to 10 points, and the Bears score three,
Starting point is 00:39:31 and they lose. And I think that Bears fans, you know, it just confirmed it this year. This is too late. But when it comes to fantasy, it's like most of these moves, I think it's better for the team, but a little worse overall. I think this one, it's better for the team and it's better for fantasy. Certainly better for Alan Robinson. I love
Starting point is 00:39:48 Alan Robinson as a talent. He's so far to play with Blake Bortles, Trubisky, and now Nick Foles in his career. It's kind of wild. But he's like, but I think it's way better for everything. Everyone in that offense, this is like the rising tie will lift all boats, which I don't think is the case for the Brady thing in bucks.
Starting point is 00:40:04 But I think that's the case with the Bears. I will say this about Foles. And I don't think he's great quarterback. I do think he's shown certainly flashes of brilliance. What I like about him is he's going to pull the trigger more often. You know, like Trubisky to me was always just a little too reticent to throw the ball down the field. Well, Trubisky doesn't know what he's seeing, right?
Starting point is 00:40:24 Tribesky just doesn't, like, like, I'm trying not to be mean, but I'm also trying to be fair. And when you watch what's happening in the field, you can only really come to the conclusion that he doesn't recognize still certain, if not 101 concept, certain like 201 level concepts that he should be seeing at the NFL level. Seth Galena on Twitter has a great thread
Starting point is 00:40:42 where he just goes through like 20 different examples of like Trubisky just not seeing certain plays that should happen. He doesn't see, like there's my favorite example is there's one where he has two receivers open, his first and his second read, they're both open. He doesn't throw it either and he ends up taking his sack.
Starting point is 00:40:57 And it's just he doesn't see certain things. things. That's why I thought Brady might be a good thing because it's the opposite. But I think Foles, at the very least, Foles is very good at taking what the offense, but the defense is giving him. Trubisky couldn't even do that. And if that's not the bar for being a quarterback, I don't know what is. Now, speaking of players who have played for the bears and the Eagles, Jordan Howard, to the dolphins. How do we feel? I hated this move personally for everyone involved. I think this is the opposite. This is worse for everyone. I think, oh, my God. Jordan Howard,
Starting point is 00:41:26 this is bad for the dollar. He can't catch. The dolphins are going to be behind. to ton. Because winner here is Miles Sanders, right? Oh my. Miles Sanders. I'm just, I'm all in sorts
Starting point is 00:41:35 about this. DK, yeah, how do you feel about Miles Sanders, DK? Yeah, where does he go in the draft now, DK?
Starting point is 00:41:39 That's a very good question. I think some people are going to see him as a, you know, potential to, if not this year, very soon join the top tier of running backs.
Starting point is 00:41:51 He'll get, it's probably like a friend RB1. I think in 2021, Miles Sanders will be a top 10 pick. Yeah. And I don't know where he's going to sort out in the 2020 draft,
Starting point is 00:42:01 but I will be high on Miles Sanders. Unfortunately, I feel like everyone else will. He'll be like what Craig mentioned earlier, like the Baker Mayfield, where everyone's in on Baker and then eventually everyone's two in on Baker. I think that, Miles Sanders is in that category for me because I'm so in on him in the Eagles in 2020. Miles Sanders had a very underrated.
Starting point is 00:42:18 It almost got overlooked a lot how good he was as a rookie. He came on a little bit slow, but by the end of the season, I mean, he was contributing in the passing game a lot. He was very good on the ground. he had a couple of big huge games. So the final, so from week 10 to week 16, I'm cutting out week 17 because no one plays fantasy
Starting point is 00:42:34 in week 17. Sure. Week 10 to week 16, he was the number 11 running back. One spot behind Nick Chubb. Yeah. And his like yards from scrimmage was very, very good for a rookie quarterback. Like he was in,
Starting point is 00:42:45 he was among a very like elite crew of guys who've, you know, the amount of yards from scrimmage. So that includes rushing and receiving yards. He was like an elite company in that. I actually need to update that. If you go half PPR from week 8 to week 16, he was the number six running back. He's only behind McCaffrey, Aaron Jones,
Starting point is 00:43:05 Derek Henry, Sequin, Zeke, and then Miles Sanders for the second half of the season. Wow. Which is pretty wild. Yeah. So my only worry, obviously, and this is what people were worried about before the season last year,
Starting point is 00:43:15 is that the Eagles will end up doing too much of a timeshare platoon. You know, Boston Scott looked pretty interesting towards the end of the season. But I think he is a very, very talented, very, very athletic, versatile guy who's going to contribute in the passing game, getting Jordan Howard out of there,
Starting point is 00:43:32 out of the scenario, because Howard was actually way better than I thought, way better than I gave him credit for before the season, in terms of his effectiveness for the Eagles. Like, I don't actually blame the Eagles for giving him so many carries because he was effective. With him out of the picture, I think this is definitely Sanders
Starting point is 00:43:48 is the lead dog now in terms of the mark of targets and carries that he's going to get. He's probably going to be a big factor in the red zone. yeah, I'm bullish on Sanders going forward. As for the dolphins, I think the dolphins are going to draft a running back. So I'm not really too worried yet what happens with Howard. Like, we'll see once the draft comes around. I think he's probably going to end up playing like a complimentary role kind of like he did last year or two.
Starting point is 00:44:14 I'm still annoyed by it because whoever they drafted still would have been a really cool, like, sleeper pick. And now it's just annoying because we don't know. It's like the Eagles all over again, except the Eagles offense is better than last year than the dolphins will be next this year. So the two, all right, two last huge moves that we got, we got a hit. Teddy Bridgewater going to the Panthers. This is a very heartwarming story. Teddy Bridgewater is, you know, obviously he overcame a lot of injuries to now he's a starting quarterback. He's getting quarterback money.
Starting point is 00:44:43 It's nice to see him back. But in terms of production and what to expect, I do think that there is a certain distance makes the heart grow fonder and kind of memory of like what he is. I think that he's a very competent quarterback. I think he's one of the best 30 quarterbacks in the NFL, but I also think he's between 25 and 30 or 24 and 30. Yeah. So, you know, the Panthers have a lot of unbelievable, talented, like, pieces on that team.
Starting point is 00:45:10 Obviously, Christian McCaffrey did the thousand thousand rushing receiving thing last season, which has, like, you know, just happened a handful of times in NFL history. DJ Moore is one of the favorites to just explode in 2020 and join, like, that next level. of receivers like the elite level. Curtis Samuel is a huge athlete. But now we've got a quarterback who isn't really known for big numbers or running big offenses. But they also hired Joe Brady, who just led the Joe Burrow LSU offense that broke every
Starting point is 00:45:38 record in college football history to do this Panthers offense. So what do you make a Teddy Bridgewater personally as a fantasy quarterback? And then also what he does to the rest of the cults, not the Colts, the Panthers offense. He's not someone you're going to get too excited about. I don't think he's the type of guy that's going to lead a high flying aerial attack. Though, I will say, there was a lot of people kind of thinking of Joe Burrow in 2018 as, you know, not a very exciting prospect. He did end up playing better in the second half of 2018. But then he came on and there was gangbusters in this Joe Brady offense where it was a spread-out thing.
Starting point is 00:46:14 It was a spread-out system. They did five-and-six-man protections a lot. So it was just like getting the ball out quickly, knowing who you're going to, based on like the blitzing and the coverage and all that. I guess I'm a little bit intrigued to see if he- And they scored the most points and touchdowns in the history of college football. So how replica is that to the NFL? Because I'm still not sure.
Starting point is 00:46:34 I don't know. I mean, I think that that's the absolute wild card in this whole thing is if Joe Brady, number one, if he can turn Bridgewater into that kind of quarterback, he's going to be a head coach so fast. But I don't know if I, I'm not super, like, I don't think that's going to happen. I'm open to the idea of that happening. I do think overall,
Starting point is 00:46:55 Bridgewater is going to be good for McCaffrey because he's still going to be checking it down a lot to his running backs, and I think that's going to be good for McCaffrey. He's still going to be a huge, huge part of the passing game. I do think DJ Moore has some upside with Bridgewater, too, because of the same deal. He's a yak guy. He's like a catch-it-short and run after the catch
Starting point is 00:47:12 and make guys missing the open field type player. Curtis Samuel, to me, is a little more worrisome because, you know, we've talked about him a bunch. He had more failed air yards, I think, than any other player in the NFL last year in terms of, like, targets downfield that just were not on target. He showed that he's an elite sort of separator downfield. And I don't know if that pairs well with Bridgewater. He is a former sort of like running back slash receiver type guy, so maybe they can get him in follows and gadget plays. But I don't know if that's something that you can really rely on in the fantasy realm quite as much.
Starting point is 00:47:46 So I don't think it's like the Panthers all of a sudden become. fantasy wasteland other than McCaffrey. I do think more, and Thomas in particular, can still be good. McCaffrey's value gets redistributed. I think that's the real, and not just because of the Teddy, but because of the rest of the coaching staff. Like, just straight up, like McCaffrey had 403 touches last year. No one else had more than 355.
Starting point is 00:48:07 I mean, there were only eight other, eight other running backs, right of their players, broke 300 touches. And McCaffrey had 400. And if you want to just distill why he was fantasy god in 2019, they did a number, that's it. And I just think those touches get redistributed. And that's why I'm kind of open to him not being the number one pick in 2020.
Starting point is 00:48:27 That might get me cast off as a fantasy heretic. But it's also just the math. It's like I don't think he's getting 400 touches again. And I think that Teddy Bridgewater is probably going to throw and get more trust than Kyle Allen did. I think there's a lot going on here. But I think that he's both going to be oddly disappointing, but also much an improvement for Carolina. And then last up, your guy. You and Robert Mays's guy, Philip Rivers, the last two people who are in love with Philip Rivers,
Starting point is 00:48:50 heading to the Colts. I think it's a one-year deal for $25 million. I mean, we don't have to get into the contract stuff, but Rivers will be the quarterback for the Colts this season. What do you think of that? Yeah, well, I'm one of the holdouts that doesn't think he's completely, completely washed up. Obviously, I recognize that he did not play well.
Starting point is 00:49:11 Yeah, I recognize that he didn't play well last year and all that stuff. I get that, don't worry. But I do think behind this offensive line where he's going to have a little bit more time, I do think he's an upgrade over Jacoby Reset. It makes me more interested in getting these past catchers in the Colts offense than I would have been last year. So, you know, it's not like a super, it's not like the most scintillating, exciting move in the world. But I do think I'm more excited about the T.Y. Hilton's, the, you know, Paris Campbell's of the world than I would have been with Brissette under center. So I'll say that.
Starting point is 00:49:45 I think that, you know, Hilton, assuming you can get back in healthy. Rivers in his career has managed to produce big fantasy numbers for all of it for his receivers going back really, really far. So, you know, he's got a little bit that James Winston style to him where you're going to be in shootouts because he's going to give turnovers and he's going to pass a lot and he's got that yolo attitude, the bollo attitude. But are the Colts Yolo receivers? Like, I feel like you got Mike Williams and Hunter Henry and like the charges have a lot of guys who go get 50-50 balls. I don't think 50-50 balls is particularly the skill you're supposed to be looking for. I think getting open is a better skill. But is,
Starting point is 00:50:25 are the, like, is T. Y. Hilton and Harris Campbell speed guys, the kind of 50-50 ball guys that Philip Rivers been playing with? No, not really.
Starting point is 00:50:33 And I do think Kean Allen's not a 50-50 guy. I think Kean Allen's a break you off with elite route running type guy. And to be honest with you, we don't know exactly what the Colts offense is going to look like quite yet. It would not surprise me if, because they've got a lot of, They've got a lot of capspace. They've got a lot of picks.
Starting point is 00:50:51 Wouldn't be too surprising if they go out and, you know, get one of these top-tier quarterbacks or receivers in like the second or third round or whatever. And so then we're having a different discussion. There's some more interesting guys. And Danny, as we've talked about, like, rookies can be more highly impactful in rookie year, I think, now than, or at least we're open to the idea of them being more high impact early on. So I don't know. I don't think we're quite ready to make the judgment quite yet.
Starting point is 00:51:16 I'm not a huge Philip Rivers fan. But if you were going to be a good. to force me to make the case for him. I think the case is that he went from one of the worst offensive lines in the league to one of the best ones. Yeah. You've got the Chargers last year, Philip Rivers was playing for the Chargers.
Starting point is 00:51:31 Russell O'Coon, who's their left tackle, he had a pulmonary embolism in the offseason. So he was not playing for most of the season. So their primary tackles were Trent Scott at right tackle and they had Sam Tevi, or sorry, Trent Scott at left tackle, and they had Sam Tevi at right tackle.
Starting point is 00:51:46 Both among pro football focus grades, every blocker. And among all the players who had 700 snaps as a minimum, Trent Scott and Sam Tevey were both in the bottom seven of the 55 tackles
Starting point is 00:51:59 in the NFL. Like Trent Scott was dead last. I think Sam Tevi a pass blocking grades was like 52nd. That was what Philip Rivers was dealing with. And then Mike Pouncey,
Starting point is 00:52:08 their center had a neck injury, got put an injured reserve. And then their two guards are average to below average. Probably the, like, as a overall grade, pro football focus graded the charges is the 31st pass blocking unit in the NFL.
Starting point is 00:52:22 The only team they were better than was the dolphins who traded their left tackle like three days before the season started. And now he's going to the Colts, who I believe were the only team that had all of their starters play all of the snaps through 16 games, or at least make all the starts. All the starters on the Colts offensive line
Starting point is 00:52:39 played at least a thousand snaps last year. They definitely, I believe, were the most, had the best continuity of any line. There was a little question about whether Anthony Costanza would retire this offseason. He's coming back. So they're bringing back their line. They've got Quentin Nelson.
Starting point is 00:52:52 They've got Ryan Kelly. They have an amazing line. And I think that Rivers, low key, might not have had a line this good. And I mean, depending how you judge, like five or 10 years.
Starting point is 00:53:03 So, yeah, that's the argument to me that you want to extend his career. It's not about his arm. It's about how much time does he have in the pocket. Yeah. Because,
Starting point is 00:53:11 you know, the 20 years of NFL experience is only useful if you have time to think. What you don't want, want with rivers. And you could say that's probably with Winston too.
Starting point is 00:53:20 What you don't want is him feeling like he's got to like put the team on his back and make a play. And a lot of his, a lot of his plays that were awful last year
Starting point is 00:53:30 is him trying to like evade pressure and like throw up a ball into double coverage because he just like feels that he needs to make a play for the team. Maybe if he gets into a situation
Starting point is 00:53:40 you know, with the Colts where he doesn't have to feel quite that way because he's got better protection. They can let all their plays developed. They got, you know, they can allow Frank Frank Frank, Frank Scheme to do a little bit of the lifting. These are me, this is me definitely talking
Starting point is 00:53:55 myself into Rivers again because I love Philip Rivers, you know, irrationally. Am I, am I off on this? I always thought that most of people were completely indifferent to Philip Rivers. And I am surprised. I don't know where you, I don't know where you, you and Mays are just in love with him. And I, like, it's not even like you're wrong. It's just like, I'm confused. I didn't know people had such strong feelings that did not live in Southern California about Philip Rivers. I just think he's a maniac. Please add us on Twitter or whatever your social media platform of choice if you have strong
Starting point is 00:54:25 thoughts on Philip Rivers, but you're not a Chargers fan. He's hilarious to me. He's a maniac in terms of his personality on the field. He wears a bowl of tie, which is just great. Obviously, the 10 kids thing is just a font of meme material. So did you see that people were, who is the person who made the joke that like when the Trump was saying? The corona virus.
Starting point is 00:54:46 You shouldn't have more than gatherings and more than 10 people. And someone's like, Philip Rivers can't be in the living room. His family. Yeah. It's just never-ending fond of hilarious jokes for Rivers. West Coast people like Phil. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:54:59 They just do because we're watching them at 1 o'clock PM. You guys, it's four over there on East Coast. You're all like giving up. You went to dinner before Sunday night football comes on. We're sticking around at one. We're watching Phil play the Raiders and lose 14-13. It's the best. Well, that's actually an interesting point.
Starting point is 00:55:15 Maybe like because the charges have always played on the late slate. It goes from eight games to three that people have watched a disproportionately large amount of Phillip Rivers. Yeah. And they give up every other quarterback. Wow. That's interesting. And then they've seen him blow many games and they feel bad for him. All they do is watch highlights of him lose.
Starting point is 00:55:32 That's what the East Coast people do. They're like, screw that guy. But meanwhile, we're grinding tape on the West Coast. I'm glad we've established this as a podcast of Coastal Lutes. I'm really happy. All right. On that note, thank you, Craig. Thank you, D.K.
Starting point is 00:55:47 Thank you to everyone for listening. Stay safe. Stay socially distanced. And we'll see you guys next week.

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