The Ringer NFL Show - The Biggest Questions Coming Out of Week 13

Episode Date: December 1, 2025

Sheil and The Ringer’s own Austin Gayle get together after a wild Week 13 to share what they think are the most intriguing questions around the NFL as we head into the final stretch of the 2025 se...ason.(00:00) The biggest questions coming out of Week 13(1:37) Who is going to be the 1-seed in the NFC?(9:58) Who will win the AFC South?(17:12) Which contender is cooked, the Chiefs or Lions? Shopping. Streaming. Celebrating. It’s on Prime. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available.Host: Sheil KapadiaGuest: Austin GayleProducer: Chris SuttonSocial: Kiera Givens and Brian WatersProduction Supervision: Conor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgopowell Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I'm your host, Shield Capadia. We are talking about the biggest questions coming out of week 13. What are those questions? Number one, who is in the driver's seat to be the one seed? In the NFC, Rams lose to the Panthers. Eagles lost to the Bears on Friday. Where does that leave us right now?
Starting point is 00:00:24 Question number two, who is winning the AFC South? Texans beat the Colts, Jaguars win. Suddenly we have a fun race among some flawed but entertaining teams. And question number three, which preseason contender is cooked? Meaning if the playoffs started today, the Chiefs and Lions would be out, is it going to stay that way? Which of them is more likely to miss the playoffs? Our guest today is the Ringer's very own Austin Gale.
Starting point is 00:00:50 Let's take a break and come back and talk questions coming out of week 13. This episode of The Ringer NFL show is presented by State Farm. Having insurance isn't the same as having state farm. It's like expecting the leadership of a team captain on the football field, but getting a sea captain? Sure, they're both captains, but who is going to run your offense? You wouldn't settle for just anything for your team, so don't settle for just any insurance.
Starting point is 00:01:18 When it comes to getting the help, you need, State Farm is the real deal. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. All right, we are back here on the Ringer NFL show. Join by Austin Gale, we are talking about the biggest questions coming out of week 13. Austin, let's get started here. First question, who's going to be the one seed in the NFC? Does anybody want this? The Eagles didn't want it on Friday. The Rams didn't want it on Sunday losing to the Panthers right now. Can you believe it? The Chicago Bears at nine and three if the
Starting point is 00:02:03 season ended today would be the one seed in the NFC and would have the buy. So I want to know, is it going to stay that way? Are the Seahawks going to get in there? Are the Packers still going to get in there. And I'll tell you, I am still with the Rams after this. I don't think we learned anything new about the Rams and this loss to the Panthers. This was classic, like, very good team, goes on the road, turns the football over, and that's why they lose the game. They went up and down the field. I don't have any questions about them coming out of today that I didn't have earlier. And I look at their schedule. I think they are still the favorites to win the one seat. Sorry, Bears fans, we'll get to you in a second. We do deserve some props. But that's where I'm at,
Starting point is 00:02:42 Austin, where are you at with this? No, I'm still with you. I think the Rams are the favorite to still have the one seat in the NFC for a reason. There are three teams right now at 9 and 3, bears at top at 9 and three, Rams are 9 and 3, and then also the Seahawks. And I think the Seahawks are probably the most interesting conversation somehow
Starting point is 00:02:58 not the Bears. The Bears, according to ESPN's football power index, have the hardest remaining strength of schedule. I also think it's a team where the defense is very getable, and as much as I think Caleb is talented and improving. I think the offensive line has also stepped up as well. It's a huge improvement from last year.
Starting point is 00:03:14 The run game is insane. I still feel like the defense is suspect enough, especially against the schedule they have coming up. It's at Packers, Browns, Packers again, at 49ers, and then Lions to finish it off. The good news is that Lions game is in Chicago outside against Jared Kauf.
Starting point is 00:03:30 And that could be a game where it ends up being kind of like, hey, either the Bears or the Lions are going into the playoffs. If there was a team that I think has a chance to kind of steal it away from Chicago, obviously now in the one-seat spot, but also the Rams, I do think it's Seattle. The worry I have is in these big games,
Starting point is 00:03:47 and I think you felt it a little bit today, even though the Seattle Seahawks ended up winning, that Sam Darnold is turnover prone and can kind of curl up under pressure. Danny Kelly, host of the Ringer Fantasy football show, big Seahawks fan multiple times in this game. I think I'm just done with this Darnold stuff. And I think it's because...
Starting point is 00:04:05 And it's obviously, it's like this football season, he's been good for a lot of the year, but I feel like Darnold, Gough, Daniel Jones, all three quarterbacks, you kind of feel like the pressure and it's stacking up either literally with people coming off the edge and blisters and those times of things
Starting point is 00:04:20 or in the pressure of the situation, it's hard to count on them being those guys that on 3rd and 7 plus or a long fourth down or a big 4th down that these guys are going to come away with the plays, especially with Seattle's offense, half of the passing cards are going to Jackson Smith to Jigba. And I think better defenses, you know,
Starting point is 00:04:35 are going to be able to step on to Arnold in these clutch situations and just kind of single out that team. So I'm with the Rams. I do think Seattle has a legit shot. at it. The defense is one of the best in the NFL. Bears are obviously going to be in the mix, too. It's going to be hard to pick down this five-week stretch, but I think I'm sticking with the Rams. Yeah, I think the Seahawks, the big thing for them is they still get the Rams on the schedule. So obviously, if you beat the Rams in that game here in a few weeks, the rest of
Starting point is 00:04:57 their schedule is not that tough. I am with you, though. I mean, watching that first half, I can see why D.K. and other Seahawks fans would feel that way where you're kind of like, man, Florida says Darnold and Kubiak and a blender right now. Like, they're not going to win this game because their offense is going up and down the field, and they didn't need to. They obviously turned the Vikings over a bunch of times, four or five interceptions, whatever it was. I lost track.
Starting point is 00:05:18 So their defense is going to keep them in every game. I think in a big spot, you're still obviously more nervous with Darnold than you would be with Matthew Stafford. So I think we're on the same page there. The Bears, it's getting to the point where I feel like I've said a similar thing about them week after week where I'm like, well,
Starting point is 00:05:35 the defense, they're feasting on turnovers, and I still don't know about the people. passing game and the one score games. And we are in December officially. We're recording this after midnight, Eastern Time, Austin. We're in December and they are the one seed in the NFC. So I do feel like if you're a Bears fan, you go into every game, even when you're a big underdog and you say, our coach is giving us an edge.
Starting point is 00:05:58 He came up with something this week in the game plan that he's going to know how to attack this defense and he's going to be able to adjust and he's going to come up with wrinkles and he's going to be a step ahead. And so while I generally do agree with you, I also understand if you're a Bears fan who's like, all right, you guys have been saying this for a long time. We might have the best coach or a coach who can go toe to toe with anybody in the NFC right now. So, I mean, the vibes and show, are they the best vibes team in the league right now? Like the post game, I mean, Ben Johnson, can we address the elephant in the room real quick here,
Starting point is 00:06:30 Austin? You watch the post game, right, with Ben Johnson ripping a shirt off in the locker room. Of course. Is my guy just naturally hair? No chest hair? naturally hairless, no arm hair. I mean, I can see him shaving everything for some kind of hidden edge. You know, I can see that.
Starting point is 00:06:45 I don't know what the actual edge is, but like, if he told me, like, yeah, I shaved before every game, it would not surprise me as being some kind of edge. I've been on group chats where I post this question, and people have come back with the exact response. Like, I don't know. I could see him actually being someone who, I don't know, he's getting a wax, you know, he's getting all waxed off the day before the air. It's in the air.
Starting point is 00:07:02 It's in the air. Whatever. But he looked good. Listen, they, they are, those locker room videos, they are very excited. and the vibes are great for that Bears team. Here's what I like about the Bears. And I think it starts with Caleb Williams, I think even more so like Ben Johnson.
Starting point is 00:07:15 But Caleb Williams, I think what we've seen this year, and it's kind of like a Rojerk test every single week with what we like and what we don't like. I think what we know about Caleb Williams specifically this year is he's gotten a lot better with the pre-snapsed off and being able to get under center and being able to do this, like, what is it, very multiple offense. They do a ton of different run concepts.
Starting point is 00:07:31 They're constantly trying to innovate in the passing game as well. It's a lot to handle for Caleb Williams, which you had that report before the season, where old coaches are saying he was dyslexic. He has, I think, handled that adversity very well, and improved in that area of the game, specifically, every single week. I think what you also know about Caleb Williams is he's been inaccurate with the football. He's up there in the most off-target, you know, throwaway according to true media,
Starting point is 00:07:51 and that this offense actually needs to run the football to be successful, and you've seen that with Kyle Menongai and D'Andre Swift, specifically on Thanksgiving against this Eagles defense. You see, like, if they can run the ball like they have, and last year, with running back carries, they were 27 in the NFL, in EPA per rush. This year, they're second, right? And I think with Ben Johnson, and I think you even feel this with Liam Cohen as well, you know, anytime we're talking about these like offensive gurus, we always focus on what they've done with the quarterback position. Look what Ben Johnson did with Jared Gough and now Caleb Williams or Liam Cohen was able to do with Baker. But I think both of those offensive play callers, what got underrated is how much they improve their run games, right? I think Liam Cohen has massively improved the Jags run game. It's top five in rushing success right this year. It was also really good in Tampa Bay when he was there. And then with Ben Johnson, you saw the run game completely revitalized in Detroit, obviously the Offensive line was great. They had talent running back. But here in Chicago, he improved the offensive line specifically over this offseason. And then what he's getting out of Swift and
Starting point is 00:08:44 Menungi, I think actually makes this offense viable week to week. The defense, however, and I think that's where the biggest case against the Bears is, I think it's very getable. And I think what's been underrated about the Bears defense this year is their ability to create pressure with their front forward is like non-exist. Their 31st in pressure rate, their best pass rusher who's at least 200 pass-wishing snaps this year by pass-wrest win rate according to PFF. is Gervon Dexter, the defensive tackle. When your defense is, you don't have an edge player that's beating out like a big boy defensive tackle and pass first one rate, you're just not getting home on the edge.
Starting point is 00:09:17 I think that's ultimately what's going to end up. And I think the secondary also has some suspects in there as well. They've been injury plagued sure. But the defense, bottom three in the league by a lot of metrics. And I think specifically the one that hurts when you get into the postseason or down the stretch here against good teams is to create pressure. So Rams, I know they lost against the Panthers today in a sloppy wet game in Carolina, but I ultimately still feel like on both sides of all,
Starting point is 00:09:36 even special teams too. The Rams, I think, have the biggest adjut and should be that one seat in the NFC. I'm with you. Rams, Seahawks have a chance if they can beat the Rams. Packers, I'm not counting out yet. They looked great on Thanksgiving.
Starting point is 00:09:48 And Bears fans, just enjoy it. I mean, they are a fun team giving you a fun season right here. All right, next question here, Austin. Who is winning the AFC South? First of all, do we care? Let's talk about this from a content perspective. Is this an entertaining division? are you entertained by these teams?
Starting point is 00:10:06 Is it fun even if all the teams are flawed? Or you're like, Shield, this is a terrible question. Why don't we go to something people care about more? Of course it's fun. I think it's still been kind of ugly. I think the Jags are the one team that even though they're obviously in the mix here to win the AFC South with, you know, where they're at.
Starting point is 00:10:23 I think what? They're like eight wins now this season. Yeah, they're eight and four on the year. I think I just can't look you in the face and confidently say anything left or right with this jazz. team finishing the season. I still think they have a ton of bozo in them. They simply are undisciplined. I don't know if it's Liam Cohen. I don't know if it's what it is. But they are, they lead the league penalties per game. They are always in these spots where they're giving up
Starting point is 00:10:46 big bonehead penalties. I still think Trevor Lawrence, I think someone tweeted this last week where it's like sometimes he looks like one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and like a play later. He can look like it's his first time ever playing the game. And I think that you still have that with Lawrence. I think the rushing offense is good. Jack's offensive line is like not a torrential like problem for them, which I think is okay. And the defense, I think, has been turnover dependent, but still enough there, specifically up front to create pressure where, like, there's a reason
Starting point is 00:11:09 they're eight and four this season. I think Liam Cohen actually has it as a coach. But I think there's still too much bozo in them to even count on them winning as favorites. Now, it's the Colts division, I think to lose. And I think they're reeling right now. Obviously, I think one in three in their last four games. And it does kind of feel like there's been
Starting point is 00:11:25 a little bit of a blueprint with how to, like, stop this team. and it's limit, you know, sell out to stop Jonathan Taylor and force Daniel Jones to beat you on these like third in longs and send pressure at him, you know, heat up his feet, especially now that the news came out that he's playing with a fractured leg or whatever. I think that the Colts are in a sinking area. The Jags are inconsistent week to week, which leaves me,
Starting point is 00:11:45 which I know they're like plus 350 to the winning division. I like the Houston Texans. I'm with you. I mean, they have a real chance at this, Austin. I think if you look at what's the best unit in the division right now, I trust the Texans defense over any other, you know, more than the Colts offense. more than any other team.
Starting point is 00:12:00 So the odds are interesting here. You alluded to them earlier. The Texans are plus 350. They're 7 and 5. The Colts are the favorites plus 120. They're 8 and 4. And the Jaguars are also 8 and 4, but they're plus 150. I mean, my strongest take here is that the Colts could go from one seat to actually
Starting point is 00:12:19 missing the playoffs. Like, it's not that crazy. And I don't just say that from today's, like, I thought this game was a pretty evenly played game. I thought they didn't get a good whistle there at the end. it could have gone either way. So I'm not even saying, man, the Texans outplayed the Colts here, but it's all about where they're trending, as you said.
Starting point is 00:12:35 You know, when you have Daniel Jones now playing with this injury where he couldn't scramble in this game, there's no designed run game with him, nothing. You got that. You got Sauce Gardner, your big trade deadline acquisition now has a calf injury. At least that's what it's labeled right now. We'll see how long he's going to be out. And then you look at their remaining schedule,
Starting point is 00:12:54 which is pretty difficult here. I mean, by I think the betting markets, it might be the hardest or the second hardest in the NFL. They got the Jaguars top twice, the Texans once, they're at Seattle, and then the 49ers at home. I mean, you could potentially, so they're eight and four. If they go two and three against that hard schedule, they're 10 and 7, and I don't think that makes them a lot to make the playoffs. So to your point earlier, there's a lot to still be decided here in the last five weeks of the season. I think the even Colts fans are not going into these final five. games feeling all that confidence. Specifically, these two games against the Jacks, right? This
Starting point is 00:13:30 upcoming week, they're going to go to Jacksonville and then three weeks later, they're going to have home jacks. Those two, two games could really decide who ends up kind of winning the AFC South with just where that's at. Houston only has, I think, one divisional game left or maybe two divisional games left to close out the season. With Indy, what I think is the biggest reason kind of why you're feeling this kind of downfall is one, they're obviously overvalued to start the season, right? Remember all those stats about like, oh, they haven't punted yet this year. This offense is as efficient as the 2007 Tom Brady-led
Starting point is 00:13:59 Pats. It's like, okay, we know this Coles team is not bad. Our friend Anthony Dubondo, which is hitting us with those of the rinder just day and day out. We said settle down to Bundow. You know, we're vets in this game. Just letting you know, sorry, to cut you off. Yeah, no, no. We just knew, we knew they weren't that, right?
Starting point is 00:14:13 We knew this offense wasn't going to be one of the best offenses we've ever seen. Even if they end up sneaking into the playoffs, they do feel like primed in this spot to exit the playoffs without a playoff win. Then you start to question, whoa, what are we doing here? Do we have to like now extend General Jones? and you kind of end up in this weird spot where you gave up a first round pick for Soss Garner,
Starting point is 00:14:29 you kind of went all in on this team, but is it a team that can kind of get you over the hump? It's a tough spot if you're a Colts fan. You do not want to go two and three, one and four down the stretch, which feels really likely with how hard the schedule is going to be. Yeah, they've got a lot at stake.
Starting point is 00:14:41 You mentioned it. We talked about it last week where we said they've got, Daniel Jones has a lot at stake, the Colts have a lot at stake depending on how the rest of this season goes for them. And then I'm with you on the Jaguars. Like, if you took the analytical part of my brain,
Starting point is 00:14:53 I would look at it. I would look at their remaining schedule. I would look at the fact that they're 8 and 4, and I would go, they probably have the best chance to win the AFC South. I just can't get there. I didn't learn a lot from that game against the Titans. You know,
Starting point is 00:15:05 they get the special teams turnover early in the game, and then they kind of jump all over them and are up 253 midway through the third quarter there. So we'll see next week with them. I mean, they are in a good spot right now. I'm with you. I just don't totally trust them.
Starting point is 00:15:20 So I think we're on the same page there with the Texans. All right, let's take a break. We come back and we're talking about which contender is cooked. The Ringer NFL show is brought to you by Fandul. Hey, Missouri, the weight is finally over. Fandul Sportsbook is live in the Show Me state. Right now, new customers can bet $5 and get 300 in bonus bets, win or lose.
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Starting point is 00:17:13 All right. Last question coming out of week three here, Austin. Which contender is cooked, the chiefs or the lions? And by cooked, I mean they're not going to make the playoffs. because if you look at it right now, you go to your pretty little, you know, ESPN NFL standings page or wherever you go, these two teams would not make it if the season ended today,
Starting point is 00:17:32 which I think before the season, if you would have told me December 1st, after week 13, the chiefs and lions are not going to be in the top seven of their conference. I would have said, all right, did Mahomes get injured? Who got injured on the Lions? And that's not really the case here. So who do you have as less likely? If you had to pick one, I'm telling you right now,
Starting point is 00:17:54 one of them's not going to make the playoffs. Which team are you picking? If I had to pick one, I think I am going to go Detroit to miss the playoffs and not the Chiefs. And some of it, I think, is the strength of schedule for Detroit. They have the Cowboys coming up at home. Then they've got to go to Los Angeles, take on the Rams, Steelers, at Vikings, and then at Bears.
Starting point is 00:18:12 I know that Vikings game probably isn't going to be anything, especially if Brosmer is playing, who's the now the new Peterman. How great is it that Nathan Peterman was the last quarterback in his first career start to throw four picks? and now we get even better name for whatever the status going into being. Max Brosmer ends up kind of matching that. It was a bad game for the Vikings. But then I really do think for the Lions,
Starting point is 00:18:31 if you come out of, you know, Cowboys, Rams, Steelers, you know, one and two, whatever it's at being. And then you have to go to Chicago outside against a bear's team that's trying to get into the playoffs or trying to get a better seed, that I think is going to be a tough game for Chicago. What I wanted to ask you, I personally feel for the Detroit Lions and why I feel like I'm on them not making the playoffs
Starting point is 00:18:49 and why it's been a down year for them. I think everyone has pointed out, the interior offensive line has taken a step back. You could say the offensive line overall has taken a step back on the interior. They're missing Frank Ragnow, who they said was going to come back out of retirement. Then they found out he has a grade three hamstring injury, which means it's completely torn off the bone, which I don't know what happened there. Like did Frank say like, yeah, of course I'm ready to play.
Starting point is 00:19:09 I mean, my hamming kind of hurts a little bit, but I'm sure it's fine. And then they did an X-ray, and it was like, wait, dude, no, there's no shot you're playing. It's a great question. They thought they were getting Frank back and now they're not. You know, it's been a problem on the interior all season. And I think the other problem, too, Amon Ross St. Brown, who has been obviously a big, big piece of the offense and really consistent for them is now battling a low ankle sprain.
Starting point is 00:19:27 Is the bigger problem for them, the offensive line problems, they don't have a defensive end opposite of Hodge that can create pressure, and now you have Imman Ross St. Brown creating problems. Or when you look at Lyons Reddit or Lyons, that they keep going forward on fourth down and not getting it. They're 0 for 7 on their last four downs and their two losses. Do you blame Dan Campbell and the decision-making on fourth downs? Or do you really think that the offensive line,
Starting point is 00:19:47 the D-line, and all this stuff is kind of stacked up against them? No, the fourth down decisions are good. We should. This has been resolved with the lines. They know what they're doing. It's won them games before. It will win them games again. If they make the playoffs, there will be a game in the next five weeks where they say they will always say they won the game because they were on fourth down. The issue is, to your point, the offensive line, and now they got guys injured on the
Starting point is 00:20:10 offensive line. The Ragnow thing, like you mentioned, didn't work out. Amman Ross St. Brown. Who knows, week to week here. And then the big thing, you know, Dan Campbell takes over the play call. It hasn't solved the issue. I like Dan Campbell a lot. It has not solved the issue.
Starting point is 00:20:24 And if you're a Lions fan and you watch that Bears run game, which you alluded to earlier on Black Friday, and then you compare it to your own run game, which is 23rd in success rate this year after I believe being top five last year. And Jemir Gibbs is still awesome, but he needs some space. You got to get him some space so he can hit those home runs. And that's not happening either. So what they're doing right now is they're running the football a lot on early downs.
Starting point is 00:20:47 And they're not a very good running team. I look at the lines and it's sort of like the culture. They're trending in the wrong direction with the O line injuries, with the Amon-Ras St. Brown injury, with the defense not coming off of a good game on Thursday against the Packers. And the bottom line here, Austin, is they have to leap either the 49ers, the Packers, or the Bears. That, like, that has to happen for them to make the playoffs.
Starting point is 00:21:11 And I'm just not sure that's going to happen. So I, like, look at the schedule and I'm like, I still kind of trust the infrastructure there. But I'm with you. If I had to pick one, I'm still. going with the Lions. That's not to say that the Chiefs aren't vulnerable. I think there's a good chance that both these teams could miss the playoffs. And I think it's kind of funny enough, like for a lot of the same reasons, right?
Starting point is 00:21:31 I think there's offensive line and defensive line talent issues with both of these teams, right? I think the defensive line for the Lions, they've been trying to figure out who is this pass rusher opposite of Aidan Hutchinson that can help create more one-on-ones and we can get more pressure. I think even Hutchinson, too, has not been like the passenger they've paid him to be. He's not like taking over games. Like he kind of needs to be like a Crosby has. this year, obviously Garrett has and Micah Parsons.
Starting point is 00:21:52 And then for the offensive line, we talked about that. With the Chiefs, their pass rush has been largely non-existent when Spaggs isn't dialing up blitzes. And now with the offensive line, they got multiple injuries. Juan Taylor is hurt. They've had Josh Simmons who's hurt. And then Trey Smith is missed game. So the offensive line and the defensive line for both these teams, I think is a big
Starting point is 00:22:09 reason why they're not these like juggernaut contenders that we kind of expected them to be going into the season. Why I feel like I have more faith than the Chiefs, one, Patrick Mahomes. Two, this schedule down the stretch actually isn't that. bad for KC. This week, they got Houston at home, which is going to be a tough game. Night game, exciting, primetime, island spot. Could be do or die for the Chiefs.
Starting point is 00:22:28 They still have a percentage chance. They're not eliminated if they lose this game, but it'll be pretty tough if they do. Then they have the Chargers at home. They go on the road to Tennessee. Easy game. Then Chiefs, or they have the Broncos at home, which we just saw the Broncos against Washington against Marcus Marietta, almost lose that game, and then they finish the season out
Starting point is 00:22:43 in Las Vegas against the Raiders. If they beat Houston, I think there's a good chance they could go head and win out and then end up going into the playoffs. I don't feel that confident in the lines looking at their schedule and just obviously with the problems we've talked about. Yeah, the three offensive line alignment potentially injured against the Texans make me nervous. Listen, I'm going to give you the analysis on the Chiefs that no one wants to hear and people are sick of. They are having an incredibly unlucky year. They just are. I'm sorry. The profile of this team almost always
Starting point is 00:23:15 makes the playoffs. They have a plus 73 point differential, Austin. Okay. I looked at since 2000, there's been 153 teams that have a plus 73 point differential or better through 13 weeks, 153. How many of them do you think did not have a winning record at this point in the season? I'm going to say three. Three. You nailed it. Good job. Okay, good. The 2019 Cowboys, the 2023 bills, they were also both 500 at this point. I think there's a comparison here between the chiefs, the 2025 chiefs, and the 2023 bills.
Starting point is 00:23:51 who won five in a row and got in. Now, the reason I'm a little skeptical to say this is absolutely going to happen is because, again, it's not trending in a great direction with the injuries, with these injuries on the offensive line. But right now, they're tied for first for EPA per drive on offense. Again, I know these are nerdy stats. I'm just telling you, when your offense is this good, and your point differential is what it is.
Starting point is 00:24:15 Usually you are not a 500 team fighting for your life. So I know they're a flawed team. I'm not telling you they're a great team. they should be a playoff team. They're one and six in one score games here. So I'm not, I'm just telling you, I'm not going to give up on them until they're mathematically eliminated. So like you said, they could lose to the Texans. They lose to the Texans. I was looking at the athletics playoff simulator. They still have about a 40% chance to get in. So they've got a jump, basically two of the AFC South teams or one of the AFC South teams and the Chargers.
Starting point is 00:24:44 And until I click on the thing and it says zero percent or the graphic comes up, cheese mathematically eliminated for the first time in the Mahomes Reed era, I'm going to assume that the luck is going to go their way a little bit with that quarterback that I do have concerns. Again, I'm not saying they're perfect. I'm not saying they're great, but they should be at least a playoff team. I think that I push back a little bit on it all being luck.
Starting point is 00:25:07 I do think the offense has been good this year and a lot of the nerd stats say they're kind of tops in it. I do think where they've taken a step back is Mahomes has been under pressure more and I think the pressure has mattered more this season. I think also Mahomes throwing downfield chasing these kind of downfield 20 plus yard explosives. He's just been more inconsistent and more inaccurate, not able to connect like he has in previous years. Defensively, too. And I love Spags as much as the next guy.
Starting point is 00:25:30 But in these spots where he's needed to, you know, the opposing offense just needs like one more first down or two more first downs to kind of put the game on ice, I do feel like he's not been able to find answers against opposing offenses. You felt that, I think, in this most recent game. And especially with like how good Pickens was against these corners and like the Dallas. Cowboys to just dial up the slant and they were always open. But I think Spags in these spots where he's like, I need to play, I need to send pressure, I need to find something. He's kind of, he's sending blitzes a lot because he's not getting pressure with his front
Starting point is 00:25:58 four unless Chris Jones beats his guy one-on-one. And I think that's leaving this secondary kind of vulnerable. And they've had injuries too. I mean, I was just thinking about it as you were talking and as I've been watching them in the last couple of weeks. And yes, so don't get what I'm saying twisted. I think it's pointing out that critiquing them is totally fair. Like, what's an area of the team that's above average, just talent-wise?
Starting point is 00:26:17 Honestly. I think the linebackers are good. I think Nick Bolton and Drew Traylor are good. I think that the secondary is average or below average. I think the defensive line is well below average, even if Chris Jones is still a monster. Offensively, I think the offensively, I think the offensive line is special when the injuries is below average.
Starting point is 00:26:31 Mahomes is one of the best quarterbacks, if not the best quarterback in the league. And the receiving core, I think is generally very good. And I think when they're all healthy, Xavier Worthy, Rish, Travis Kelsey, I think they're above average team. And then the running back room, I think, has been a concern. I think that I saw on Chiefs Reddit,
Starting point is 00:26:46 someone's saying, hey, is there any chance that we could get Breeshall in free agency during the playoffs? Someone who's just kind of not, doesn't understand how this works. But it's like, that's how desperate I think they are in the running back to try and get an upgrade. Now, I think Cream Hunt has somehow developed into this like weird, successful short-yardage thumper back, which he kind of wasn't who he was earlier in his career. But they are missing that explosive piece at running back. They've tried to do it for Breschard Smith, but I don't think it's been all the way there. Yeah, it's tough, man. I think this Chiefs team needs to. to be more explosive at the end of the day. I think everyone has said about it this year,
Starting point is 00:27:19 but they need more speed, even though Xavier Worthy is, you know, the fastest guy according to his combine time and stuff like that. It doesn't feel like they have the guys that can really turn explosives or take the top off of defenses. Yeah, it just feels like there's too many stretches during these games where you're like, they don't have the talent advantage in this spot at this time. Now, you laid out the roster. Some of them they do, and they do have the quarterback and they can figure it out. And the past catching group, I just go back and forth on one minute where she Rice is making an incredible catch to it feels like saved their season.
Starting point is 00:27:47 And the next minute, he's dropping the ball. So I like it. I will say Noah Gray not being in that game, I think is kind of substantial too. Like Noah Gray, they're tied in two. That's a great Hicks to take. I love that. I like Noah Gray. And I think them having to kind of go to their, you know, tight end three and not having
Starting point is 00:28:02 him as this other option to Kelsey, who Kelsey is like, I think a shell of what he was. Obviously, in the prime of his career, I think is a factor in this too. Yeah. They both could be out. It could be a very strange postseason where these teams, we thought, coming into the season. We're absolute contenders. And at the very worst, they're going to be a wildcard team. They might not be playing at all. It makes for a very interesting last five weeks here. All right. Thank you to Austin, Gail. We had too much to get to. I'm skipping the hurry up today.
Starting point is 00:28:28 No hurry up today. We'll do it again tomorrow. Thanks to Christopher Sutton for producing Kiera Givens on social and additional production supervision by Connor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgopal. I'm Sheila. We'll talk to you tomorrow on the Ringer NFL show. Must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus and present in D.C., Kentucky or Wyoming. Gambling problem, call 1-800-Gandler or visit RG-Hallp.com. Call 1-88-78-8-9-77-7-7-7 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut or visit MDGamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit Gamblinghelpline, MA.org or call 800-3-2-750-50. for 24-7 supported Massachusetts, or call 1-877-8-8-N-Y or text Hope NY in New York.

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