The Ringer NFL Show - The Five-Year Quarterback Outlook | The Ringer NFL Show (Ep. 271)

Episode Date: July 10, 2018

The Ringer's Robert Mays and Kevin Clark dive into quarterback situations around the league over the next five years. They discuss the teams with problems on the horizon (19:00), and then Danny Kelly joins the show to decipher the five best quarterback outlooks around the league (38:00). Hosted by: Robert Mays, Kevin Clark and Danny Kelly Produced by: Jim Cunningham Brought to you by: The Ringer Podcast Network Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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there are a ton of great shows for you. On the latest Ringer NBA show, Chris Ryan, Jonathan Sharks, and Kevin O'Connor, recapped the latest from an already wild NBA offseason, including Zach Levine's. I'll say interesting payday from the Chicago Bulls. Also, in honor of summer, the latest episode of The Rewatchables was dedicated to the summer blockbuster, Jaws. Go listen to Chris Ryan, Sean Fennacy, and Bill Simmons, break down every element of what might be the most rewatchable movie of all time. Kevin, how many times have you seen Jaws?

When you say seen, do you mean watch 10 minutes on TBS? In its entirety, I mean, 10 probably. No, not in its entirety. Not its entirety. A 10-minute portion of Jaws. How many times you've seen it? 800? Yeah.

Somewhere like in the three digits for me, I would say. And I don't think that's an exaggeration. It was on and we're the right generation. The younger generation doesn't necessarily get it. It was on cable every day for like 25 years. I would love to see the monetary value of how much money Stevens-Bilberg has made from the cable rights to that movie. I mean, every single network has a lot of,

own the rights to it at some point. It's absolutely ridiculous in our in our glory years. But also no one even flips around the channels anymore to say, oh, there's jaws. It used to be just like you're flipping around and up, there's jaws. I'm going to settle on that. That's the USS Indianapolis speech going to settle in for this one. Yeah, those days are gone and it's very sad. All right.

Also, please go to the ringer.com to check out a ton of great stuff from this week. Brian Curtis wrote a great column on Friday about the end of the American Soccer Troll. and that's just the latest piece from our excellent World Cup coverage. Also, Andrew Grudadar will be recapping all things Jay Cutler from Very Cavalry each week. That's the content made for me, but I still haven't been able to read it because I don't know if I can stomach it. So this week and every week, please check in for the Jay Cutler being a dick recap from that show. All right. And with that, let's get to the show. It's the Ringer NFL show, part of the Ringer Podcast Network.

I'm Robert Mays, joined as always by Kevin Clark. Kevin, how you doing, bud? I'm doing great. We're getting there, man. Yeah, it's July. It is the absolute worst time on the schedule for NFL news, but we're almost there. Yeah, I mean, we're sending our training camp schedules back and forth. I mean, that's like the time of the calendar that we've hit so far. We're a couple weeks from getting on the road and staying there for the foreseeable future.

Training camp is hot. It is in many ways nonsensical. Like, as you're just watching stuff, it will be of no use three weeks later. But damn, if it's not really awesome and really inspiring and it just gets the juices flowing. I love training. Making that schedule and knowing that I would just be living out of a rental car

and buying snacks that are terrible for me for weeks at a time and seeing parts of the country. do not, you have to watch the snacks. Here's why. Because when you, I've done, this is going to be my seventh camp tour. When you have like ice cream or something like that,

and I've done it many times, that's six hour drive, you feel it the whole time. No, for me, it's not about the ice cream. It's about like the gas station snacks. No, I know. It's bags of candy. It weighs on you.

It weighs on you for like six hours. And you're just like, why did I have that bag of Doritos? I'm going to have to lose some of the receipts. while still staying under the travel budget for the ringer because I don't want Juliet to know how many gummy bears I eat over that two-week period because it's going to be embarrassing. It is when you have a bad snack, I've done it double-dozens of times. When you have a bad snack at the start of like the Richmond to Spartanburg leg,

it is the worst feeling you will ever have. And I've been hit by two cars. It has a pedestrian. as a pedestrian. And it's a comparable feeling to just like having an ice cream sandwich before a seven-hour drive. Oh, man. All right. Well, those trips are still a little bit off. And we're still using kind of the last remnants of the offseason to do some more big picture look.

So a couple of weeks ago, we talked about the best QB infrastructures and scenarios in the NFL. So whatever systems really prop up these quarterbacks, we're going to do the opposite in a way. today. We're going to talk about quarterback situations and outlooks for teams independent of everything else going on. And this is a somewhat naughty conversation because is it going to be for that season? We've done that a couple times. We ranked the top 10 in each position two years ago. That's more of a zeroed in focused look at the position. We're going to take somewhat of a step back for this show and do the five-year outlook for these players and these situations, period. And why, it goes beyond the player is because it's not just which quarterback would you rather have

independent of every single qualifier or circumstance or factor. It's which would you rather have with everything taken into account. So we're going to talk about age. We're going to talk about contract situation. We're going to talk about everything that plays into quarterback value long term in some way, shape, or form. And that's going to create a list that may seem counterintuitive or may leave off some teams that you think should be on a best quarterback list, but I think that's the important part to establish right away. It's not who is the best quarterback in the NFL. It is which teams have the healthiest outlooks over a five-year stretch.

Yeah. And obviously there's going to be some people who just by the nature of the list are not going to make it. Ben Rathesberger is going to be 37 soon. And you start looking at it, well, he's not the kind of guy who's going to play till he's 42. He's not Nolan Ryan here. And so, you know, he's, he's not going to make either list. Tom Brady, you know, we're not going to bet against Tom Brady, but he's not going to be on the five-year list. Sorry.

He's on my list. He's on your five-year list. Yes. This is not, and here's the thing. And this is why this is going to be somewhat, it's, again, it's confusing and it's complicated. It's what, which quarterback situation would you like over a five-year period? And we'll get to that. but the Patriots get Tom Brady for at least two more years.

So you have to wait. I guess. I guess we'll argue this later. We'll argue this. I did not. This is why we don't see each other's list. Exactly. We can be shocked by that.

I just think that it's totally possible he retires after this season. That's all. And that's fine. And he might. But when you look at every single situation, I really do think I'd rather have Tom Brady for two years. But again, we will talk about this. So before we spoil this.

podcast. Let's just get this started. And let's start by talking about the teams that didn't make our list, but not necessarily for the wrong reason. Sure. And I think that right now is possibly the most intriguing state of the quarterback position in the league since I've started covering the league. And it's for this reason. I would say that I've never looked at the NFL in July and thought to myself, wow, so many teams, almost all of the teams in the league have a, settled plan at quarterback. I don't necessarily know if the quarterbacks are good at some of these for some of these teams. I don't necessarily know if some of these teams will be happy six months or a year from now. But I can't remember a time when I looked at a list of NFL teams and thought, well,

at least they have a plan. At least they know where they're going good or bad. I mean, you can't name me five teams that don't have that. Yeah. Okay. So there's a couple of reasons for this. And we talked to this on the last podcast. But essentially, quarterbacks become so important that if an ownership group looks at a team and there's not a quarterback, the GM's going to get fired. And you least have to have some semblance of a plan. And if not, you're gone. And the GMs know that. And so they will oversign if they need to. Okay. And I just think generally that that is the philosophy of all 32 teams. No one's tanking. Maybe the Browns were, but they're not anymore. And, you know, I just think that it is a quarterback healthy league. And,

One of the other reasons for that, Robert, is maybe the quarterbacks, maybe we'll never have a golden generation like we have with Breeze and Peyton Manning and Tom Brady and even trickling down Carson Palmer and then a little younger Rathesberger and Aaron Rogers. Maybe we won't have that anymore, but the schemes are so complex that they're, and the schemes are so good and the offensive minds are so good that a lot of these coaches just creating great quarterbacks or creating good quarterbacks. And I think that the healthy amount of offensive minds in the league is scheming good quarterbacks into existence. I think that's fair. And we're going to have to play with that idea also as we make these lists because it's hard to separate scheme from player and everything else. But what you said about the Cardinals, I think, is a great team to bring up because

they're kind of a perfect example of this. Carson Palmer retires. And it's not as if they wait two years to find their answer. They draft Josh Rosen this year. And we've seen that a lot. I mean, you saw the teams that drafted a rookie quarterback this season. So a team like the Jets, right, where you take Hakenberg in the second round a few years ago, and that may not necessarily be your answer, the Browns waited.

So all of these teams that were happy to kind of put quarterback off and be comfortable not having an immediate answer for who is the quarterback of the future, they got their quarterback this offseason for the most part. So you just don't have that many teams where you just think, man, what the hell is that team doing a quarterback? even the ones you don't feel good about, like the bills, they have a plan. I don't necessarily know if I like the plan, but at least one exists.

They have multiple plans for Christ's sake in Buffalo because you have AJ McCarron, you have Josh Allen, and then all of a sudden you hear Nathan Peterman's in the hunt. So, I mean, okay, maybe it's not the greatest plan in the world, but all plan is better than no plan, I guess, right? Yeah, absolutely. So obviously we have all those rookie guys

and then you have what was supposed to be that next generation of quarterbacks that I think right now looks a lot less healthy than it did a year ago. I mean, you had that rookie quarterback group that we're thinking, okay, is this the group that will take over the league after the Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees class steps away? And then you consider the year that Derek Carr had last year, you know, Marcus Mariotta really falling off. It just feels like there aren't as many from that group where you just say, okay, this is going to go really well. And that's probably, I don't know, maybe two years ago, most of those guys would have been close to making a list like this

just because you consider the rookie contract value. And that just doesn't exist for a lot of those teams anymore. That group has already fallen away. Yeah, and they could bounce back really easily. I mean, let's not, we're not writing any of those guys off. I mean, I think that not in terms of talent, but the window to get value out of them is starting to shrink. Of course.

And one of the things I think is really interesting is just sort of the amount of players who have the talent to make the leap and make the leap into the elite category. You know, Andy Reid has said something in the last couple of years I thought was really interesting about the spread quarterbacks

and there are a ton of drawbacks to modern college quarterbacks, a ton. NFL teams detail them all the time. But one of the real upshots, upsides, is that those guys are throwing more than ever. I mean, you talk about the 10,000 hour theory.

These guys are throwing from seven on sevens up. So you're looking at sixth grade up, you know, thousands and thousands of times into tight windows. I remember talking to, I think it was Ryan Tanna Hill's high school coach. And he was basically saying, if you look at Texas seven on sevens, which these guys are doing from the time they're 12 years old, they're throwing into tight man coverage windows and they're learning how to shake guys open, essentially. And maybe 20 years ago, there were a lot more option teams in high school. There were a lot more teams that didn't throw.

And Andy Reid basically says, you know, the argument 20 years ago when pro teams looked at college teams was they're not throwing enough. Now all of a sudden they're throwing too much. And so the sort of the byproduct of that is there are a lot of quarterbacks who have a lot of armed talent. And then the right system, the right scheme and the right surroundings can get into that top 10 very easily. And that's the thing about how quickly this list may change. I mean, guys like Patrick Mahomes, there's no way you could put him on here right now even on that rookie contract. But if we did this list next July, and you have Mahomes on a rookie deal, there's a chance that happens. But there are so many guys in the league we haven't seen enough from that even if a rookie quarterback contract is the most valuable thing you can have in terms of team building,

there are too many guys in the league right now that have those deals, but you can't feel comfortable throwing them in a list like this, even if they're cheap. I'll give you something else. The guys who are due for big deals in two or three years,

you don't even know what those deals are going to look like. You don't know if they're going to be cap crippling or whatever. I mean, you know, it's, we don't, we're trying to also figure out what the future of the sport looks like. Sure. By the time Jared Goff signs his extension, who the hell knows what rookie quarter, what second quarterback contracts are going to look like? They change every year.

Will there be a Kirk Cousins effect where they're all guaranteed or will there not be? The Matt Ryan thing seems to suggest there wouldn't be, but maybe that stuff takes a couple of years. Maybe the Aaron Rogers contract, which will be signed later this year will change the paradigm. I mean, I mean, there's, there's so many variables to quarterback play. And that's what's so fascinating about quarterback play in 2018. Yeah. Very quickly, let's chat about some of the teams for you that didn't make it or the quarterbacks that didn't make it just because of age and value. We talked about how Tom Brady and that deal is still on my list.

We'll get to that a little bit later. You mentioned Ben Rathesberger. Are there any other excellent quarterbacks who are not involved here simply because of age and contract and everything else? Age, Drew Brees. Because, you know, Drew Brees, even with the money you're paying him, you cannot put a price on having that kind of quarterback. You know, I was looking at some numbers earlier. I mean, he's by far the most accurate passer in the NFL. The ability, obviously Alvin Kamara changed the way his offense is run, but he's still a damn good quarterback. And I wouldn't sign him to a five-year deal right now, which is sort of the barometer we're looking at.

but for 2018 and certainly for 2017, he is top five at least. As far as performance goes, he's great. And the only reason I'm not putting him in the best quarterback outlook thing is just the fact that he's pushing 40. Yeah. And the thing with Breeze is he's got that two-year deal. And right now, the Saints will allocate the seventh most money in the NFL to quarterback. Drew Breeze is not the seventh most quarterback in the NFL. So that's where you have to kind of.

There are all of these middle grounds that you have to try to figure out. And that's why this is a difficult exercise. I mean, when we were figuring out these lists, I emailed you guys. I was like, this is hard. I mean, it's very hard when you consider everything that you have to take into account because some of guys have gotten paid. Breeze is going to be in the league for two more years. Is that $25 million when Joe Flacco is making 27?

Is that worth putting him on? I mean, it's very difficult to do. And that's why guys like Breeze, Ben Rothesberger is not going to make this list. Matt Ryan isn't on my list because three years from now, Matt Ryan's making $34 million. Is that okay when quarterback value may explode? Maybe. I just,

it's very difficult when you consider all the moving targets involved here. Okay. So we'll get to the Matt Ryan thing when we get to it. But Matt Ryan is on my list. My only thought is that quarterback contracts become a bargain from the moment they're signed. And the Matt Ryan deal might look like a bargain in two years with the rising cap and all that stuff. There's not, the cap has been rising at $10 million a year. Almost all of that has gone to a small handful of superstars and the rest of the NFL is going towards rookie contracts.

And then, you know, obviously the elite of the elite. I think that when Matt Ryan does make that much money, I think it's not going to be an insignificant amount of money, but it's, it's going to be manageable and carryable for a good general manager like Tom Dimitrov. That's a very interesting point. and I have a similar thought about what Jimmy Garoppolo's contract might be like three years from now, but it's because they're structured differently. Again, we'll get to some of this. Is Jimmy G on your list? Jimmy G is not on my list.

Okay. Okay. Because that would have been an interesting thing. He's not on my list either, but it would have been interesting if Ryan was on my list and Jimmy G was on your list and we didn't have the other person on. Okay. We'll get to all of that. And before we get to some of the worst contract situations in the league,

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But a lot of them are ones that you wouldn't feel good about. You're like, all right, well, we're settled into this, but I'm not necessarily pleased about it. So why don't you give me one of your worst three? What's a team where you're like, eh, even if they have a plan, I'm not very excited about it. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Yeah, that's a fair one. They did not make my list, but it's, it was very close. I mean, what the hell are they going to do?

Yeah. It just feels like he can't be on the team next year, right? I wrote about this. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know what they're going to do. I mean, I just, he's due for an extension. He's the type of quarterback who would probably get a prove-it extension anyway,

but do you really want to commit any money to a guy who at this point has not, you know, has obviously screwed up in a major way already in his career? I mean, I just think that I just don't know what you do. I mean, you've written about it. You know more. So what, what's your take? Well, I mean, it's not, I don't even necessarily know if I know more. I just know that it feels like he's been given more chances than necessary.

at every turn. And they picked up his fifth year option, but we know how fifth year options work. If he's healthy, they can just cut him without any sort of penalty. And if you're the bucks right now, what sort of message does it send? You can do the Bordell's thing and just renegotiate.

Sure, but we'll get to Bordals here at a second. If he's not the quarterback you want, renegotiating only helps you to a certain degree because you're kicking a financial can down the road. I mean, if he's healthy and you can cut him without any guaranteed money because it's not guaranteed except for injury. I just feel like that would be the move. And I want to qualify it with some sort of unless he's great this season,

but I think that's the problem in and of itself. I don't think it should matter how he plays this season. If you're the Bucks, why would you in any way want to commit upwards of $20 million to James Winston next season? Right, exactly. But I think, now here's the question. Let's say James gets to the end of his deal and there's just, no market for him, and they can get him on a relatively cheap contract. Do they bring him back

in that scenario? That's two years from now. Yes. So in that scenario, they're sticking with him on the fifth year option next year. Through the fifth year option, through when they're contractually obligated to. Because I don't think, I don't necessarily think they'll get a huge amount of criticism if they let him play out his five years under, under rookie control. Even if it's a big, even if it's a big number, it's still standing pat. I think in that scenario, it would have to do, I mean, we'd have to take into consideration how he plays over the next two seasons. Sure. And I just don't know.

And if he screws up again. Yes. Watching him play is just, I'm talking purely from a football perspective right here. Is one of the more madding things about being somebody who watches the NFL every single week. I mean, I can't tell you how many times I've watched a throw he's made and just, why? Like, what are you doing? I mean, just in the red zone or where? they're backed up and it's third down in 25, he's just throwing it up for grabs or been thrown

into the ground. It happens so often. And I just think that's who he is as a quarterback. I don't know why there is any reason to believe that this is going to be something that goes away as he's in the league for a long time. So if we're talking about the merits of him as a player and why he'd be worth even keeping on any sort of deal, I'm running out of reasons to think those exist. So one of the reasons that there's such a large amount of really good quarterbacks in the NFL right now, or at least above average quarterbacks, is that a lot of the coaches and the players have basically gotten mistakes out of the game, by and large. Interceptions are as a league-wide thing at a low.

I think 2016 was the lowest interception year in history. I think 2017 wasn't far behind. Sacks are also historically down. Guys are getting rid of the ball quicker and they're passing more accurately. And if you're making mistakes, you are an outlier basically with the rest of the league. That's just statistically what's happening. And no one makes probably more crazy on-field mistakes than James Winston, where you just look at it and say, what was the past there? Where was that going?

Why is this happening? And so there's a lot of guys in the league. I mean, in his own division, Matt Ryan was, I think, led the NFL in the fewest turnover. worthy throws, according to pro football focus. James Winston is, is Mr. turnover worthy throw. I will throw out another person that in my mind is very close when it comes to the what is going on reactions to his throws,

and that is Blake Bortles. That's why the Jags are also on my list of the worst three. Because we talked about that deal and giving money and trying to take away some of the salary caps implications in the fifth year and, you know, it's time paying more later. the Jags will pay Blake Bortals $26 million over the next two years. That is not a ton when you consider just the quarterback position and the price tag overall, but for Blake Bortles, that's a lot of money.

And the fact that even though he's down to $10 million this year, having to pay him 26 next year, and no matter what, it's $10 million this year and $16 million next year, even if they cut him, because that's how much dead money is on his deal. Two years, 26 is a lot for Blake Bortals, in my opinion. and there's no plan post-Blake Bortals. And because the defense is so good and the rest of the roster talent is so good, you would assume they'll be decent enough that there's no way they'll have a high draft pick in order to get a replacement for him when that time comes.

And that's the type of stuff that worries me. Obviously, the rest of the team is great, and I know why the decisions were made. But in terms of quarterback, they're in a pretty dire spot over the next five years, in my opinion. So football outsiders is doing its sort of pressure week or kind of a collection of stories about pressure. They had a breakdown about pressure rates by a number of past rushers. And the Jaguars are not a surprise. They rush for more than anybody. And they basically generate more pressure than anybody.

And when you look at those numbers, just from a football nerd standpoint, that's both of us here, you just get so amped about watching it. You just get like, wow, this defensive line is amazing and I love them. This defense is amazing and I love them. You got Jalen Ramsey talking about how Mount Rushmore is just his face and four different expressions. It's incredible. I know it's a lyric, but he didn't have to say it and he said it anyway and I love him for it. And then you just sort of get this ache in your stomach because you know what's on the other side of the ball. And that's what's disappointing about all of this is if you just had, I mean, I don't know what you

do because again, all the good quarterbacks are extremely expensive and hard to find. But I just wish there was some competition for Blake Bortles. I had thrown out earlier in free agency taking a flyer on AJ McCarran. I'm not saying he's necessarily better than Bortles, but you just want a competition to where Bortles, to where maybe if Bortles is doing as I'm missing wide open screen passes thing, there's just another option. That's all. Yeah, trust me, we're on the same page here. It does it. It hurts my chest. I really don't enjoy it at all. Just to be clear, it's one thing to have faith in Blake Bortles. It's another thing to go all in on Blake Bortals. And that's what I'm saying. There's no other quarterback and it's not as if you're paying him

on a rookie deal anymore. Okay. An average of $13 million is not a lot of money. It's still enough where you're like, eh, that's not great. Okay. So let's go the bottom six quarterbacks by yards per attempt last year. All of them seem to check out. Okay. 27th. CJ Betherd. 28, Jay Cutler, okay? 29 is the

quarterback I'm about about to talk about. 30 is Deshione Kaiser. 31 is Brett Hunley, 32 is Joe Flacco. Who's the

quarterback I'm about to talk about? I'm not sure. Eli Manning. Yeah, that's fair. Now... He's close to making mine as well.

Now, let's... I'm not saying Eli Manning is the worst quarterback in the NFL. I'm not saying anything like that. I'm just saying age, he's going to turn

38 if he makes the playoffs. I don't know if that's going to happen. But his birthday is January 3rd, and he'll be 38. So I just, I just think, you know, he's got at least, I don't know, he's got one more season in him, probably not too. If you're looking at five-year outlook, he does, he does not look he's trending in the right direction. I'll say that. And I don't, and then by the way, I mean, I just don't know, you know, you spent this second overall pick on a running back. They're probably going to try assuming Sequin Barclay is another sort of Zeke Elliott

instant impact guy, which is 100% possible. I think he's got worlds of talent. They're going to try to win in that window where he's cheap and productive. So what do you do? You go out and you sign a guy? I don't know. I mean, if they give up on Eli Manning, I just have no idea where they turn to. Maybe it's Davis Webb. I don't know.

Eli was very close to making my list. He makes $22.2 million this year. It's not as if he's got one of those middle of the road quarterback deals and his play is uninspiring. He's aging. He's expensive. And there's absolutely no answer behind him. So I completely understand why he'd be on there. Yep. I mean, there's not a whole lot to say about Elon Manning at this point.

Yeah. I agree. Maybe it's possible. Maybe Pat Shermer schemes him up. I don't know. The amount of, if you can derive hope from that statement, then you are a far rosier person. than I. I really appreciate your optimism about the world. It would be great if Eli Manning just

started roasting people this year and just destroyed everyone with Pat Schumer's. It'd be incredible. No, I would love that. All right. So Eli was close to making mine. He's not on mine. I'm going with the dolphins because while Ryan Tannenhill is not super expensive this year. He counts $8.7 million against the cap. Over the next two years, it gets very bad and he's got a decent amount of guaranteed money still left on his contract. So if the dollar, dolphins choose to cut him after this offseason, they still owe $13 million. So you're looking at $21, $21 million price tag for Ryan Tannahill over the next two seasons. Do we know how good Ryan Tannahill is right now? Do we know how healthy Ryan Tannenhill is right now? There is so much

uncertain about what they have in him and he, that he's getting paid actual money on a second contract. So that's why, to me, it's just, how could you feel good about where they're going? And it's not as if they're skating by right now on a $1 million, $2 million rookie deal. It's the worst of both worlds. Yep. I mean, you, you, the best thing to have is a good, cheap rookie quarterback, right? I mean, that's, that is the epitome of something that you can build around in 2018. What the dolphins have and what you're laying out here is a very, very average expensive second contract quarterback. That's not how you compete. That's just not. Sorry. guys.

It's the last thing that you want. That's not it. And these, again, there's a common thread here. And it's teams that, especially with the last team I'm going to throw out, but what you said with the Dolph, or excuse me, what you said with the Giants, teams that could have addressed their quarterback situation in the draft with a high pick and did not. And now they're kind of in a very precarious spot. The Giants are like that.

The Dolphins are like that. And then in a way, the Jags are like that. I mean, it's just a team that if they wanted to, could say, all right, we're just starting over. We're not. and that they decided not to, and they're just letting the ball roll further downhill. Who's your last one?

Oh, it was to Jaguars. Okay, sounds good. And then my last one, again, in the same vein, again, not a ton to say about it because for the same reasons, is the Broncos. I mean, you're paying Case Keenum $18 million a year. Do we know how good Case Keenum is? I'm going to push back on this one.

Good. Go nuts, bud. Okay. Going back to the football focusing. The reason I even came upon the Jaguars thing is I was looking into Case Keenum. And there were, two quarterbacks last year, and they were basically two of the three

that have ever been measured to have a positive DVOA when under pressure. Okay? One of them last year was Tom Brady, the other one was Case Keen. The other one happened. The other one amazingly,

and you're going to love this one, who's the other positive DVOA under pressure quarterback? Wasn't Michigan? No, no, no, no, no. It wasn't last year. It was just all time. It was someone who had just a miracle run

and it probably was very near and dear to you. I don't know. I'm curious. It was the hot hand run for Josh McCown in 2013. Oh, wow. What a run that was. It was a magical time. What a run.

But over a full season, Case Keenum had that last year along with Tom Brady. I just think that... He was amazing. He was amazing. I understand. Pat Schumer schemed him up as he's going to do Eli Man.

But I'm not sure if I am not saying that Eli or Case Keenham wasn't great last year And I totally agree His ability to create plays I don't think he's a bad situation And he's under a manageable contract He's a great guy

He was a phenomenal slow newsday guest And he loves peekie pinders And no I just think that he I don't think he's a top 10 quarterback He's not on my list Of best situations But I think if everything else breaks right for the Broncos

That's a playoff team if, if, what I'm saying is if the defense is good, all that stuff. I think that there's a lot of holes on the Broncos, what I'm saying is, if you put Case Keenum

on an above average team, he will make you better. That's fair. I just think that paying Case Keenum $26 million guaranteed or $25 million guaranteed is not a long-term plan. That's,

if I'm wrong, I'll be glad to be wrong because I thought he was great last year, but I thought he was in an excellent situation last year. He created a lot of plays, but there's also a lot of plays made for him. I mean, I can't think of a wide receiver duo that was better at just snatching balls out of the air on contested catches than those two were. So I'll be happy to be wrong, but I think that that is not necessarily a plan. Okay. I have a question. I have a question.

All right, going on. So the Broncos are spending the 20th most cap money on quarterbacks in 2018. Okay. And they have obviously Trevor Simmon and Paxon Lynch under contract. Would you rather have the Broncos quarterbacks or the lions and the Raiders are at three and four spending 27 million total? Would you rather have Keenham and the Broncos quarterbacks or for 10 million more lions or Raiders? Would you want Lions or Raiders in every situation? I think I'd want the Lions.

Okay. I don't know if I'd want. Would you rather have to be? Okay. So you would take staffer. close. Listen, it's funny how close Derek Carr was to this list. Would you consider what we probably would have said a year ago? But when you consider that deal, it's kind of terrible if he continues playing the way he did last season. And he might. Maybe

that's the quarterback that Derek Carr is. But I'm not quite ready to throw him in there. I think I'd still rather have Derek Carr for the next five years on that deal than Case Keenum. I just think you're getting into it. I don't know the answer. I haven't put enough thought into it. but, you know, would you rather have Case Kingdom or Matt Stafford plus a $12 million player? $10 million player? $10 million receiver.

For instance. I think the answer is probably Matthew Stafford. Okay. No, I think I probably agree with you, but I'm just saying it's a debate you'd have to have. I mean, it's not a debate. None of these players are available. I mean, Matt Stafford's not coming available, so it doesn't matter.

But still, it's just an interesting team building question. I totally agree. and that's why we're having these conversations. All right, coming up, we'll welcome Danny Kelly to rank our top five quarterback outlooks in the NFL. But first, let's take a quick break. UDEMI is the largest and most accessible online learning marketplace with the most courses, teachers, and opportunities

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Get the Hotel Tonight app now to start scoring amazing deals and incredible hotels. That's Hotel Tonight, the only booking app that you need. All right. We are now joined by Danny Kelly, who is here to talk with us about the five best quarterback outlooks in the NFL. Danny, how you doing, buddy? I'm doing great, Maze. How are you guys doing?

I'm wonderful. It's beautiful out here. I'm feeling good. Summer is the best. Yeah, let's do it. All right. So let's dig right into this. Number five, Danny, why don't you?

kick us off. Who's your number five team? Man, so I hemmed and hawed on this a lot because Cam Newton is a pretty polarizing figure among the quarterback Pantheon, but I'm definitely going with the Panthers for number five for me just because if you look at his contract, right now he's 29, his contract runs through 2020 and the cap hits 21 and a half, 23.2 and 21.1 over the next three years, that's really reasonable. And actually, he's probably going to look like a major bargain in the next couple of years. And so, I mean, just, you know, Newton obviously very, very inconsistent,

but when he's on, he can take over a game. He is an MVP caliber player. Obviously, he won the MVP in 2015. So, I don't know. I just think when Newton is at his best, he's one of the most unstoppable players in NFL, and they've got him under contract, under a reasonable contract for a couple of years.

So I think they're in a really good situation if they can really take advantage of that. All of those points tracked to me. He would have been either six or seven on my list. He barely missed it. it has a lot to do with that contract. We see so many quarterbacks that are very good, and we think about,

oh, they're propped up by their circumstances, whatever. That's not Cam Newton. He's been put in such a tough spot so often with the scheme that the Panthers have run, the throws he's forced to make. And he is inconsistent, but if we're just saying, based on the quarterback alone

and how much they're making, which quarterback would you like to have the most, he's very close to the top from me. I don't blame you whatsoever. Yeah, that was a really hard decision. Like, there was three or four guys for the spot, that I was debating. And I mean, yeah, it just goes back to, again,

watching at his best what he can do in a game. And that's kind of what I guess swayed me on that one. Sure, I'm a big Cam Newton fan, but I just think from a, from a consistency standpoint, from just the season he had last year with a guy who I think we all agree is a downgrade on offensive coordinator.

I have to go with Matt Ryan. Because I think, first of all, He obviously was MVP level at 2016, literally. And then last year, I mean, he just made less mistakes than anybody. And as I said earlier in the show, he had the fewest turnover-worthy throws in the NFL, less than 1% by the way. You know, he has done it in a bunch of different situations. He's done it without Julio Jones.

He's done it with Julio Jones. He's done it with Kyle Shanahan. He's done it without Kyle Shanahan, extremely without Kyle Shanahan when he considers Sark last year. And so I just think that he is for the next five years, $100 million is guaranteed, not the worst contract in the NFL when you consider how much the cap is rising. And again, every quarterback contract ends up looking like a bargain. I'm not saying $34 million against the cap in 2020 is going to be ridiculous. But the way these quarterbacks are aging, the aging curve in the NFL suggests to me that Matt Ryan at age 35 and 36 at $31 and $34 million a year will not look out of place. I totally understand where you're coming from with that.

I think that as the cap rises, the fact that he was one of the first guys to sign that deal after Rogers gets his, where's that number going to be all that? I still look at those latter deals of this contract and kind of balk a little bit. The fact that it's going to be 35 and 2022. Will that look like a pretty decent deal?

Maybe when you consider the numbers, but he's going to be 37. And like we talked about earlier in the show, Kevin, that's why I think the Garoppolo deal becomes kind of interesting because let's say he becomes one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. We don't know that yet, but let's just hypothetically say he does. While the deal itself looks massive, that $137 million, it's $74 million guaranteed whatever, a huge chunk of that money comes this year.

The Niners will pay the most money in the NFL to quarterbacks this season because Garapo has that $37 million cap hit. Next year, it goes to $20 million. The year after that, it's $26. So they had the luxury because of their cap situation to put it all, not all of it, but a huge chunk of it in the front and have it be front loaded and then let it get less expensive over the course of the deal. That's huge. In 2020, we could be sitting here and saying that Jimmy Garapolo contract is one of the best in the entire NFL. I don't know if we will, but that it's just a really fascinating way that they did this when you consider the trajectory

of their franchise. So the one thing I kept hearing about for, for, for, three or four years is the rollover cap money and how much these teams are going to accumulate $100 million in cap space, all that stuff, how much that would change the competitive balance going forward. The Browns obviously have tons of money to spend, et cetera. And one of

the ways that I think those teams are going to catch up is doing things like the 49ers are doing, which is front-loading the hell out of these contracts and using up all that cap space they accumulated by essentially tanking. I mean, I guess that, I mean, they really stripped down the roster, right? You know, they didn't

go out and lose for five years in a row intentionally. But, you know, they strip down the roster and they accumulated that cap space. And it is a huge, huge advantage to be able to pay out that much money this year and then smooth it out afterwards. It is, it's, it is a luxury that very, very few NFL teams are going to have. Yeah, I totally agree. And that's why it becomes maybe a decent contract to me, even with the money that they're allocating toward it.

He's not number five for me, though. I'm putting Tom Brady in there at number five. Just because I understand. I love it. Yes. It may, it may only be two years, but you have to consider the overall impact. And the fact that they might have him at $44 million over the next two years, would you rather have Tom Brady for two seasons or someone else for five?

Right. And probably a very similar price tag when you consider what most of the quarterbacks in the NFL get paid. I mean, you look at positional spending in the league, and the Patriots are middle of the road in how much they pay their quarterbacks, and it's Tom Brady. And even if it's only two more years, it's still hard for me not to put him on this list. Yeah, if you can get two Super Bowls in five years, that's, you know, that's not bad.

It's very, it's tough. Because it's almost counterintuitive. It's like, well, you only get two years. But for $44 million, that's pretty damn good. And we had a similar conversation about, what's his name? We had a similar conversation about Drew Breeze, but Drew Breeze is a little bit more expensive. Those are the kind of the little tiny gaps in value that I think matter. in a conversation like this.

Yeah. Tom Brady's contract has been the biggest gift to the Patriots short of actually Tom Brady, who's the number one gift, who's been given to the Patriots. I just think generally, I mean, this is sort of the argument,

this is sort of an extension of Bill's, Bill Simmons argument that if you win a championship, you're not allowed to complain for five years. It's that, but with a player. It's, if you win a Super Bowl, is it worth then four years of being in the wilderness

and figuring out where to go a quarterback. Now, one thing I'd like to point out is that they had Jimmy Gropolo and they traded him. Just Schnaff why I. Thanks. I appreciate that. I just forgot.

All right, let's get to number four. They put themselves in the situation where they have to make this decision to do two years of Tom Brady versus five years of, or three years of nothing. So that's all very fair. All right, we got to cruise through these.

So let's get to number four here. who's your number four. All right. So mine's Deshawn Watson with the Texans. And I mean, it's obvious. It's obvious why he's 22. His rookie contract, you know, he's got a $3.1 million cap hit next year, 3.7, the next 4.4 and then a 50-year option.

I mean, he's going to come incredibly cheap to them. And assuming, and I'm assuming now that he's going to, you know, not necessarily play at the level he did last year for his whole career. But I think he definitely showed what he can do. And so he's going to give them an enormous advantage over the next five years. and I think, you know, that was a pretty easy one for me to put on there. I'm the same way. He's number four for me as well.

$11 million combined for the next three years. So you have to pay Deshawn Watson $1 million more over the next three seasons. Then the Jaguars will play Blake Bortles this year. I mean, that's just, it's hard not to just throw him in there. Even if you have considerations about the injury, about regression, whatever, that contract is enough for me to just toss him in there and not even think about it. Absolutely. I'm with you. I mean, a lot of the stats.

guys are saying he's a regression candidate. I don't know. I mean, I don't want to get, I don't want to be a downer here. And I loved what I saw last year from Deshawn Watson. I think he was, those, those games were as much fun as I had the entire year last year. And I just, I love the guy. And I think that him on a rookie contract, even if he regresses a little bit, is still really freaking valuable. I mean, I just, I just think we can't put an emphasis enough on. I mean, you know, there's a lot of guys with rookie contracts who are actually cheaper.

I mean, Dak Prescott is a good example because he was a fourth round pick. But just what we saw last year, behind a terrible offensive line, I'm all in on Deshaun Watson going forward. Is he your number four as well, Kevin? Oh, yes. Oh, sweet. All right. Danny, let's get to number three.

Who's number three? All right. So my number three team right now is the Seahawks. I know that you're not a big fan of the Seahawks, you know, their foundation there for Wilson. But they do have a good situation in terms of he's a young, he's 29. his contract runs through 2019. It's very reasonable over the next couple of years. And, I mean, we saw it last year.

He's their entire offense, you know, safe for Doug Baldwin. But they're just in a really good situation financially, I think, with him. You know, they can wait until next year to extend him. And, yeah, he's, I mean, he's the most valuable asset in terms of franchise quarterback who's under 30 years old,

and he's still on a reasonable deal. I totally agree. They're number three for me as well. $49 million for two years. and even if it's $49 million, you like that price tag, you can still keep him longer. And that's the difference between him

and a guy like Brady or a guy I'll get to here in a second. The fact that the specter of his youth is still there, that's very important. I have him higher. All right. Who's your number three, Kevin?

The Green Bay Packers. All right. They're a little higher for me, so. Okay, no, it's, I mean, look, we had the same top three. There you go. It's all pretty interchangeable. But the Green Bay

Packers for me, it's only an age thing. Russell Wilson at this point is 29 years old. Aaron Rogers, it's just a matter of health for me. I mean, it's a matter of age and health. He's 34. He'll be turning 35 on December 2nd. Obviously, he's been banged up last year. You know, the quarterback situation behind him is not good. He played seven games last year.

I just, you know, I think the world of him, but coming back from an injury, being 35 years old, I put him a smidge below the two younger guys in my top three. They're all entertained. I can understand that. I can understand that. They're number two for me.

Danny, I know they're number two for you as well. Yeah. I just feel like 40 million for Rogers over the next two years, even if that takes a jump, even if they do give him that extension and it kind of kicks up a notch, I still feel like it's going to be early enough where we're looking at the Rogers deal three years from now and saying,

God, he's still a bargain. I just can't even imagine the number where if you could have him under contract, you wouldn't want it. And all I do know is that the Packers are going to come in under that number with whatever extension he decides to sign. I mean, they could sign him, they could have him for the next two years and then franchise him for three more years after that. And I would look at the number every year. I'd be like, yeah, that sounds right. Yeah, that seems like good value for Aaron Rogers.

It's just, I don't know if there's a number that exists. Yeah. I remember and I've told the story before, but Mike Shanahan was talking a couple years ago after they tried for RG3. It was at the owner's meetings. And he was saying no one is ever, ever, ever. brought up the concept of overpaying for an elite quarterback. And I think the reason he was talking about John L. Way and how no one ever said the Broncos came up too much for John L.A.

because it worked out. And that's what I feel about a contract for a guy like Rogers. Like there's no situation where someone's going to go, man, and Rogers just, he's just killing the Packers with that contract. Right. It's kind of one of the factors that you have to take into account when doing something like this is that, all right, 20 million for Rogers per year of the next two years. Would you rather have that for two?

years than Dak Prescott at less than a million per year. Right. And my answer to that is yes. And I know that's hard to quantify and it's hard to figure out where that lands. But for Rogers, it's easy.

For other quarterbacks, it becomes a little bit more difficult. But it's, when you're thinking about team building everything else, I just feel like a quarterback that's at a contract that doesn't make you cringe

a guy like Rogers, a guy like Brady, that's still going to put them in this conversation. I mean, it's like this, right? is if you have a quarterback who's making a million dollars, can you sign 20 million dollars worth of players to make that quarterback the equivalent of Matthew Stafford?

That's sort of the economic, give and take of the modern NFL, because rookie quarterbacks can be so cheap like Dak Prescott. Can you replicate Matt Stafford's production with an incredible supporting cast? Yes, you can. Can you replicate Aaron Rogers? Probably not.

And that's the difference. That's the difference. Drew Brees, probably not. Tom Brady, no. Like, those are the guys you cannot, you cannot replicate with a supporting cast. And that list is very small. It's an incredibly short list.

I mean, we talked about this all the time, just the quarterbacks that can manage to transcend that. I think that Rogers is there. I think Wilson's there. The guys that are here and on those big second contracts. I mean, this group is going to be rookie contracts and guys that are so good that it doesn't. matter. And again, that list of guys that are so good that it doesn't matter is very, very small.

And Russell Wilson is number two for you, correct? Kevin. That's correct. So Russell Wilson would be my number one, except he's only signed through 2019. He signed a four-year deal. So he's non-restricted free agent in 2020. If we were looking at him being cost controlled and on that $25 million cap-pit, which is his biggest cap-pit, which is next season, if he had that for their remaining five years or even three of the five years, we're looking at number one. But the fact that you have to pay Russell Wilson

when he enters his age 31 season, he's going to command a lot of money. He, by the way, navigated so he would hit free agency at 31. He did that on purpose. Yeah, this is not a coincidence. We haven't hired a baseball agent who wanted to get him more money

than basically any quarterback in history. A couple of years ago, I asked Russell Wilson, he came into my place of employment that was not here. and we had a little powwow and he said, I want to own a team. And one way to get the money to own a team, hit free agency at 31. Yeah, that's fair.

He's going to have a hard time catching Sam Bradford, Matthew Stafford, though. It's an unfortunate time that he was drafted. That's so weird. Sam Bradford. It's crazy. Those two are the guys that are make the most money. But all right, I believe we all share the same number one.

Danny, why don't you kick us off? Oh, yeah. Carson Wentz, baby. Yeah. It's the Eagles for me as well. well. He's 25, I think, and his contract, his rookie contract sells a few years on it, plus a 50-year option. I mean, he's coming in at an incredible bargain even being second pick. So, I mean, even at that, he's an incredible bargain for them for a couple years. They already have an incredibly,

you know, stacked roster. Of course, they're going to face some questions on, you know, what to do with their cap, but he gives them that flexibility going forward and he's, he's a really good player, too, you know, so they're in, they're just, they're in the catbird seat in terms of, you know, the D word, the dynasty word right now just because of what they've got at the quarterback position. They're going to pay their quarterbacks the 16th most of any team in the NFL this year,

and that is with Nick Foles, their backup quarterback, making $13.6 million. Carson Wentz is the 201st highest paid player in the NFL. Wow. He is the sixth highest paid player in the Philadelphia Eagles,

and he's the 28th highest paid quarterback in the NFL. He will make $7 million against a cap this year, $8 million against cap next year, and then we'll have a fifth year option. He will hit free agency if they don't franchise tag him in 2021. Now, what's important here

is that they also have a backup quarterback who won the Super Bowl. Yeah. So you're going to like that quarterback room, guys. Now... Yeah, I mean, the fact that it's full... The fact that they have both of those guys, and they have the 16th most in the league is insane.

I mean, that's crazy. It's an unbelievable bargain to know that you have Wentz at that, you have a guy that can win you a Super Bowl with your infrastructure, and you're still in the middle of the road after having to pay foals. It's not as if this is the deal that he signed before he won the Super Bowl. They had to give him this money in order to kind of satiate him with everything that was going on, and they're still in the middle of the NFL. I mean, it's, that overall scenario is really hard to beat. Now, there's a couple things about Carson Wentz. Number one, incredible efficiency. You know, Steve Palazzoa put out the highest grade, highest graded

quarterbacks in the red zone in the past three years. Brady is number one, Rogers number three, Wence number four. And this is a situational league. Carson Wence led the NFL in touchdown percentage by a wide,

wide margin. I want to say it was almost an entire point. I think he was 7.5. And let me look this up here. He was 7.5. Watson's got to be close. No, he did not qualify for this. He didn't qualify.

He had like 9. 16 games. I was going to say what's the fact that yeah it looks like this is this is a it looks like pro football reference does it as a minimum of seven games that's fair I mean that makes sense check out well you know who actually led the NFL

in a touchdown percentage when you have non qualifiers Pat O'Donnell the uh I was going to say it was probably not a quarterback it's a Pat O'Donnell the bear's punter than Mohammed Sanu and then Tariq Coe not quarterback surprise And then, oh, whoa.

Number four, two games, zero starts, 16 passes, 12.5%. He's back, baby. It's Ryan Mallet. And then Deshaun Watson. Fun with small sample size. Deshawn Watson, who started six games is a non-qualifier as well. He was at 9.3. But over as a qualifier, Wentz was 7.5%.

And the next highest was Aaron Roger at 6.7%. So, I mean, that's a pretty big difference. He's so efficient. He knows how to score. a lot of that was, you know, I saw something amazing the other day. Have you guys seen the NFL films, Vikings, Eagles, miced up thing? I have actually, yes. You may know what I'm about to bring up, but there's a moment there where the Eagles are just pasting them.

And one Viking defensive back says to the other, man, they're just out scheming the hell out of us. And it's like, you've got that and you've got that supporting cast. And then you've got the guys who can do it. You've got Nick Foles who they perfectly tailored to his skill set. They perfectly tailored the offense around Carson Wentz when he was healthy. I mean, they just have, I know we're not supposed to do situations here, but that is the perfect situation. It's the perfect marriage between personnel and scheme and personalities and roster building philosophies.

I'm just, I'm in love with the Eagles. The other thing that's really interesting about Wence is he's one of the more aggressive quarterbacks in terms of throwing into tight windows. and he also isn't his like downfield yards per, you know, air yards per attempt is really high too. So he's like pushing the ball downfield into tight coverage and he's still that efficient. He's not like a dink and dunk quarterback, you know, that we see a lot now. Yeah. I mean, there is, when I was kind of thinking about this list more of as a theoretical thing before I even started listing people or figuring it out,

I just assumed they'd be number one. As I looked at it even more, it just hit home even harder. I mean, there is, it's really hard to even convince yourself there's a scenario where he could be anything less than number one. And I think that's, again, when you're doing something like this and you just know who the clear-cut guy is, that helps you tailor the rest of the conversation around it. Who is the closest to Carson Wentz? And that's honestly, that's why Jared Goff almost made my list, but just was fell off. I mean, if Cam Newton's six, golf is probably seven because I just feel like golf is more a product of his scenario and his circumstances than Wentz even in. is. And that's why he didn't make it for me.

Where would you guys rank Matthew Stafford? It's lower. I mean, it's probably middle of the road. I think he's fine, but I wouldn't put him anywhere close to the top five. Probably closer to 12 than 18. I put him more, I put him higher than that, I think, than you guys. Maybe I like Stafford more than you guys, but his contract actually isn't, you know, outrageous either. I kind of, guys, I kind of feel like Stafford is due for like a big jump soon. that'd be in, yeah.

I feel like we've been saying that like every single year. I guess, but I mean like Matt Ryan, it took a while. It took a while for him to become the elite of the elite. The aging curve is the aging curve in the NFL. I've studied this quite a bit. The aging curve in the NFL, those guys hit their peak in the early to mid-30s because they're still athletic enough and mobile enough to do the things they want to do, but they're now smarter.

And I just think that at some point it's all going to come together. what the armed talent Stafford has. The only thing I can, you know, they didn't, she did not bring in a new offensive coordinator, so it's not like there's going to be new voice there. Yeah, that's what I was saying. Is Kyle Shadahan walking through that door?

Because I don't think Matthew Stafford's going to be the MVP if he's not. Jim Bob. Come on. Jim Bob Cooter. MVP, he's going to lead him to the MVP year. Tell yourself that, Danny. I'm kidding.

All right. Is that all we got, guys? I think so. That's all we got. I mean, listen, when you devolve into Matthew Stafford's ready to make the leap, then it's time to end the show. That's probably fair.

All right. As always, guys, thank you for listening to the Ringer NFL show on the Ringer Podcast Network. We will be back very soon. Really appreciate it. Yeah, that was good.