The Ringer NFL Show - “The Leap Show” - The Pats' Secret Weapon, Watch Out For Winston, and The New Steel Curtain (Ep. 119)

Episode Date: July 27, 2017

The Ringer’s Robert Mays and Kevin Clark discuss the players that will make the biggest leaps this season, including two new star running backs from the NFC North (03:00), defensive linemen your quarterback should be afraid of (11:45), one free agent signing that will equal a playoff win for New England (17:00), and a former Patriot that will lead the Titans to the AFC South title (24:45). They also introduce some fresh faces to the MVP discussion (32:00) and the surprising reason you should actually pay attention to the Browns this year (44:00). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Download the Seek app and enter promo code Ringer NFL today. Make Seekkeek your go-to source for all things NFL and. NBA. Welcome to the Ringer NFL show, part of the Ringer podcast network. I'm Robert Mays. Joining me in the other line. It's Kevin Clark. Kevin, how are you? I am ready for football. Camps have opened. We are getting going. A lot of teams have reported already. We're going to be on the East Coast at a bunch of training camps. Sure. This fall, this weekend, we're going to be kind of jet-setting around the country all of next week and for the next couple weeks. But this is our last kind of big picture show, Kevin. And this one is the Leap show.

which felt like a very good way to kick off and celebrate football being back. Every single season, you know, we have guys that reach new plateaus, whether that's kind of becoming household names when they weren't, or coming into a discussion about the best players at their positions and in the league. And we just figured that's inevitably going to happen this year, so why not try to find some of those guys? Leaps can mean any number of things. I'll give you an example.

Terrell Pryor had 1,000 yards in Cleveland last year, but he was sort of off the radar. He was doing it with back. I had quarterback play. He goes with Kirk Cousins, and he could conceivably take the leap from 1,000 yards or 1,300 yards. And not only that, but sort of primetime super startup, right? That's a leap. Or a leap could be just a guy who had 300 rushing yards last year, and all of a sudden he's going to get, you know, 1,100.

And he's going to basically be the best running back in the NFL. That there are many sort of ways to leap in the NFL. Yeah. And we're going to get into some of the bigger ones later in the show. Talk about some end-of-season awards and guys that. may not have necessarily been in those conversations previously, but will be this year, whether it's MVP or defensive player of the year. But before we get into the big ones, we're going to do a couple more modest leaps. And we're going to start with NFC offensive players and guys that

are going to take a big step forward. And Kevin, the guy I'm going to start with, and maybe this is a little bit of homerism, but I feel like I'm pretty logical and pragmatic about my team most of the time. And that's Jordan Howard. And he may seem like a strange one kind of in that Terrell Pryor camp just in that he had 1,300 yards last season. He was second in the league in rushing, but he did it for a very bad football team, and he did it as a rookie. And I just feel like he is the type of player that after this season, we're going to have him in the discussion of just the most established best running backs

in the league. He's going to prove that last season was not any sort of fluke. He's going to be a guy that is in that 1,300, 1,400, 1,400, 1400, 1400 yard conversation again, because I just think he's that good. Yeah, I can see that. I mean, you know your team better than anybody. I don't watch a lot of the Bears because they're the Bears. Shocking.

Yeah. I tend to stick to the teams that are in contention and relevant to the national discussion in the National Football League. But no, I mean, Jordan Howard, I still get this tweet all the time. People saying, wouldn't the Cowboys win better off drafting Jalen Ramsey and then taking a Jordan Howard in the second round? And the answer, I don't know, is maybe yes, probably yes, that's a different debate. But, I mean, he is a legitimate.

I mean, at this point, I would have him as a, you know, 2018 top five running back. Yeah, he's pretty excellent. I mean, five point two yards per carry last year. He actually, coming into the league, his big question was, how sudden is he? Does he have the speed to consistently be good? I watched a ton of him in Indiana, which is very odd, but one of my better friends went to Indiana when played football in Indiana.

So we watched a lot of their games. And I'm just watching this guy play a running back. And he just so smooth. And that's exactly what. he brought, but it wasn't just that he's churning out four or five yards of carry, even though he was. Only Ezekiel Elliott and Lashon McCoy had more runs of 15 plus yards last year. The guy tears off chunks, and I just didn't know he was going to be able to do that in the

league. So when you combine a guy that's a really smooth runner with those chunk plays, that's how you get one of the most productive runners in football. And I think that him combined with another guy who is a rookie last season for that bear's offense and Cody Whitehair, who I think is going to be one of the best centers in the league very soon. You just have a really nice kind of integral part of your running game maturing at the same time. Let me ask you a question. Ezekiel Elliott's 1600 yards last year, Jordan Howard 1300 yards last year. Jordan Howard was fourth in the NFL in yards per attempt.

I don't want to do the sort of Barry Sanders versus Emmett Smith's debate that existed for a decade in the 90s there, but if you switched Howard and Elliott, just switched their teams, Who has the better yardage market the end of the season? I still think it's probably Ezekiel Elliott. I think he's a better player, but I think it's close than other people would. I probably agree with you. I think Elliot is a special runner. I know situation is it's hard to find a better one than what he has, but I still think he's a special runner, especially later in the season, just making plays in the open field, making guys miss. And Howard does that too. Don't get me wrong. I mean, his broken tackle rate was excellent last year.

but I still think that just Ezekio Elliott is not just a product of that offensive line and having Dack and all that stuff. I think he is a no, no, I'm not suggesting here. I don't want a bunch of angry Cowboys fans coming out. No, no, no. I'm not saying, Isaaco, it's a product of his offensive line. I'm saying that like Dak Prescott, he is in an incredible position to succeed. Everybody helps everybody else on the Cowboys. Yeah, he does.

And I think Jordan Howard does not have that much help. And you think about just the quarterbacks they cycled through last year. I kind of like Cameron Meredith, by the way. He's just, I'm not joking. And then that's, he actually, there's a lot of numbers that say he's actually going to be an NFL player, which is more than we can say when we were joking about Cameron Meredith existing, like last October. Yeah. By the way, speaking of Ellie and the Cowboys, I was just at Cowboy Camp, like literally two hours ago. I just drove in.

That's why I'm tired. Cowboys fans, loudest training camp fans in the world. They love training camp, man. Big time. It was like the Beatles. Like Cole Beasley, like would be within like. like five feet of the fence and they'd be screaming like they were playing the love me do or something. Is Cole Beasley your NFC leap guy? He is not. I assume he was. They drafted him Twitter.

He's my leap backwards guy. Who is your guy? It is Ty Montgomery. Oh man. NFC North running backs. Big day for them. Wow. Okay. So Ty Montgomery, 4 and 57 yards last year broke records for yards after contact, 5.6 yards after contact on a give him play according to pro football focus. I feel like there's a qualifier here, which we need to point out, which is he's not a running back. He was not a running back. He was not a running back.

He was an important thing. He is a running back now, but he wears number 88. And I mean, I just, he wasn't a running back until one day Mike McCarthy said, oh, by the way, Ty Montgomery is playing running back. And so in order, I mean, I just, I could not have been more impressed with him last year. I mean, he was a competent NFL running back, 5.9 yards per carry. He had a 61-yard run. I mean, three touchdowns.

I see if you just have that over a full season, if you have that as, by the way, you know, you're just in running back meetings all year. Your training is a running back. I don't think people look at positions and realize how different the training is, the strength, you know, the type of weights you're going to do in the off season. All of a sudden, he's got a full year to be a running back. I just think that can only go upwards. I'm not saying, and that's one thing about the Leap show here is Leaps can mean different things to different people.

I'm not saying he's going to be a top five running back next year. I'm just saying that when this Packers team makes it run in December, we're going to be talking about Ty Montgomery is one of the stars of the team. He'll never have the production to be a fantasy monster. That's just the nature of playing for the Packers. Of course. I mean, they're just not going to allow that to happen. But I think that I read this week that they're going to try to double his carries. So if you double his yardage, he's in a 900 to 950 range, which that is a football contribution.

He has 77 attempts last year. I hope they double his attempts. But I don't think they'll go that far over. I agree with that. I mean, that's the thing. He'll never be a 250 carry guy, but you don't need to be a really useful part of that offense. My one hesitation about Montgomery is the offensive line in Green Bay. Because for the first time in a while, you're starting to lose not just one piece, but several.

You know, Corey Lindsay is the center there. He's played, but J.C. Trudder was really good last year. You lose T.J. Lying. Now it's Jerry Evans, who I believe is 46 years old and has played on every team in the NFC. So those are the question marks that exist, but I do think he was good enough last year where it's really easy to be excited about him. Totally. Yeah. I mean, obviously, I'm excited about him.

I'm just, I'm really looking forward to seeing what he's able to do just with the basics, just with knowing how to play running back. because I really do think that that's, that surprise, knowing how to play running back is a very important part of being a running back. Cody Whitehares is a guy I mentioned outside of our two guys. Is there anybody else that is kind of on the fringe for you that you also feel could take a step forward? No, I mean, we talked about this. I mean, Willie Sneed for me is someone I really like a lot of, you know. See, I think I would say Michael Thomas, which is interesting. Yeah, no, I love Michael Thomas.

I think that both of those guys. are going to be huge stars, especially, you know, with the Drew Breeze annual 5,000 yards that no one cares about stat line that's coming. I mean, both of those guys, those guys are by far the top two targets. All of a sudden, they don't have to contend with Brandon Cooks. So, you know, that's, you take that yardage and you split them amongst need and Thomas. And I'm sure, look, I'm sure Breeze will invent some guy. Breeze is in a laboratory right now inventing some guys. Yeah, it's like Westworlds.

Like he just has guys that can build those people from wax. Yeah, exactly. Breeze is going to tell us next week who we invented that's going to get 1,300 yards from the slot. So, no, I really like Willie Sneed. I think both those guys are incredible weapons. And, you know, I think this is more of a fantasy pick. With Montgomery, the reason I'm picking Montgomery is because he's going to win games for the Packers. And the Packers are going to go 12 and 4.

And again, like I said, we're going to be in the playoffs and there's going to be a Thai Montgomery Sports Illustrated cover. Willie Sneed's not going to have that because the Saints are going seven to nine again. I just think from a fantasy perspective, he's ready to break out. I feel like Michael Thomas is the guy I would put my money on in that offense. And it's been a while since there's really been a number one wide receiver from a targets and usage standpoint in that offense. Because even when Jimmy Graham was the guy, he was a tight end. And it's been, I mean, think about how long it's been since Marcus Colston was the definitive number one option. It's been a while since they had one guy that kind of raises above the others.

And I do think Michael Thomas can do that. Yeah. Okay. I mean, I think it'll be a 1A, 1B situation. I just have, I have sneed a little ahead right now. All right, let's go to defense. Who's your defensive guy? In the NFC, I have two, but I'm just going to commit to one,

and it's going to be Eric Armstead. You know, Chip Kelly mentioned him a couple weeks ago as a guy to watch. And I think by extension, you can also talk about DeForest Buckner. Both of those guys in the 49ers. I don't think the 49ers are me as bad as people think. I think maybe they're tanking a little bit, maybe taking this year off. They obviously are not signing a competent quarterback or drafting one.

And so I think that there's probably these two performances will probably happen in a vacuum that no one cares about. But I really do think those guys are going to be the anchor to a good defense in two or three years. Now, beyond that, Sheldon Rankin's to me. I mean, I don't want to make this, because I shorted the Saints so much last week and said basically Sean Payton needs to move on, I don't want to make it two Saints players going to be my Leap guys. But I really like Sheldon Rankins. I mean, he was one of the most athletic guys coming out of the draft. I mean, we talk a lot about, you know, vert and broad jump.

You know, he's a guy 34.5 inch vertical jump at, by the way, 300 pounds, broad jump of 118 inches. I mean, he is an athlete. He had four sacks last year. He's an interior guy. We talk about how this is an interior league all the time. And I've been talking about it for a year. It's something I heard Jim Schwartz say a year ago. I think when he was still a member of the media.

And I think about it all of the time. Quarterbacks get rid of the ball so quickly now. They're trained. You know, the Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, I'm going to get the ball out in 1.2 seconds thing. That happened 15 years ago. So every quarterback now, with the exception of apparently Ryan Tannahill, is able to avoid sacks by getting rid of the football. Okay. And so for me, I think interior pressure, getting a hand up, getting in there, pushing the line back is more important than ever.

I can't emphasize it enough. I talk about it all the time. But for me, if Sheldon Rankins takes a huge jump, you're looking at a huge, huge leap from that terrible Saints defense. I thought he was really hot and cold last year, but that's what happens when you're hurt at the beginning of the season. When you don't come in clean as a rookie, it's very hard to produce. He had four sacks and limited time, which he's very sudden, and you know I like those guys. Those are my favorite guys to watch, or those interior players that can just really disrupt things and bother quarterbacks. With the 49ers, it's weird that you, I mean, not weird, but it's interesting that you pick Armstead because I feel like he's the one I wouldn't pick.

I would go with Buckner because I think Armstead moving outside in that deep. defense, he's got a much more difficult road to navigating that scheme than Buckner does. I think it's a bigger change for him. He's so talented that I feel like he might be fine. But I do think that there's going to be some growing pains moving from inside out full time and having to start dealing with that because it's not an easy move for a lot of guys to make. Sure. I mean, you can't put a price on length.

I mean, he's almost six foot eight, right? I mean, and so he's on the outside now. I think health is going to be the big thing for him. But I think he's a real good athlete, man. And I think both those guys... That's why I think you picked in the top 10. Yeah, no, of course. But, I mean, I think, obviously he's had the health problems once he got to the NFL.

And so I think both those guys are going to be real incredible. But I think that, you know, when I heard Chip Kelly say, watch out for Eric Armstead, I really looked into it. I watched some of Armstead in the last couple of years. Because I want to be clear about something. I have not watched any San Francisco 49ers football in the last two years. I don't think anybody could blame you. If you told me it was like a Premier League thing and they got relegated two years ago

and they've just been playing, you know, Brighton for the past two years, I would have believed it. And so I had to go back. I watched some Armstead tape. I watched some Buckner tape. Both those guys impressed me. And again, I think they're going to be a little better on defense people think. All right. So my guy, a lot of the players on this list, you know, especially in this section of it are younger players.

You know, guys that are 22, 23 in their second, third year in the league. And we just see this natural trajectory. The guy I picked is my age. He's like 10 days younger than me. And it's Mario Addison from the Panthers. And he's a guy I've always enjoyed. I just really like what he's brought. But for the most part, in Carolina, he's been a situational pass rusher.

You bring him in. He's a sub-packaged guy. He doesn't see you out of time, but he bothers people. And he had nine and a half sacks last year and only 289 pass rush snaps. And he's a contributor to that great defense in 2015. He had six sacks that year. But it wasn't like he disappeared that year, he was a huge situational guy. And that's what he is.

But until now. Obviously, they gave him that big contract, a lot of guaranteed money to be a full-time starter. The rate at which he gets pressure is ridiculous. Now it's a question of when you get more volume, does the efficiency kind of stay? And last year, his pass rush productivity, which is a pro football focus stat, only three guys had a better one than him. Kaleel Mack, Von Miller, and Cameron Wake. That's pretty good, man. He on a per sep basis is right up there with all those guys.

And I don't know if it can continue as he gets more work, but I hope it does because he's just one of those dudes that you notice in those nickel packages every once in a while. He has been that guy for me for years. And I'm really excited to see what he can do on a full-time base. Hey, if you're like Addison and you signed a deal with Dave Gettleman, shouldn't you try to restructure right now? Like, should you just go to Marty Herney and be like, I don't think that was a fair deal. Can I have $70 million, please? I mean, it's not a bad move. I'm not sure they'd be willing to do it quite yet. Maybe after the season. Maybe next week.

All right, let's head over to the AFC. Let's do AFC offensive players first. I don't know about you. This was the hardest one for me. I really, I had trouble settling on like one or two guys. I mean, I think that we had a conversation when we were talking about this pod, that there really is a lack. And we'll talk about this as the pod goes on,

but there really is a lack of guys who are clearly going to make the leap. There's no, we don't know. Potential breakout. Yeah, I mean, and also what is a leap? Calil Mack last year, I think in the eyes of a lot of people made a leap. But two years ago, Colomack was all pro at two different positions. Yeah, he didn't make a leap. Perception is different thing.

Leaping is a perception thing, okay? And so for me, definitely I had trouble doing it, but I definitely have a guy. Mike Gillisley is my guy. Mike Gillisley, the Patriots were now in the third. decade, second decade of Will Belichick taking guys off the scrap heap and really making them into do your job robots who win a playoff game. Okay. So Mike Gillisley led the NFL last year. These numbers are from number of fire in success rate. That means that he had 57% of his carries were successes. Okay. That led the league. He was number one in DVOA as well.

He was number one in DVOA. He was far ahead of well Sean McCoy in this metric. And then one of your guys who you'll mention later was right behind that okay so i just i really think that belichick's to be able to carve out 15 to 20 plays that's the genius of belichick is saying to the coaching staff okay this is our guy we're going out to sign him here's what he does well you figure it out putting the onus on the coaches and i have all the faith in the world that he's going to be able to have that sort of you know they they bring in burkehead and gillisly that's going to be the run game i just i am really, really enthusiastic about the inevitable Mike Gillisly playoff game, followed by the inevitable Rex Burke head playoff game.

The Patriots are a week-to-week team. I just got the phone with someone who was talking about how much the game plan can shift from week to week. It is impossible to say what a Belichick offense is because Belichick offense against the Jets is different than a Belichick offense against the Cardinals. And so if you have the guy like Gillisley who can do his job and can be, in my opinion, a Belcow back and carry the ball 20 yards, or maybe he carries the ball very specific, five times. I mean, that's both, and you can have an impact in both, and he's shown that. They do different things, but they still want a really reliable running game to be the centerpiece

of what they do off everything else, because they love play action. And when you look at Legerra Blount last year, he had 299 carries. I mean, he got a ton of work. So it's not as if they have so many options back there that they don't give a lot of volume to one specific guy if they want that guy to be their number one back. I think even with Burkhead, even with those other people, he's going to get a ton of work. He's just a more impressive, explosive version of the guy they wanted Blunt to be last year. I honestly think he can be awesome.

I feel like he's the most talented, pure running back, just line up, give it to him, let him work guy that they've had in a really long time. I went to university Miami, and so when I was in college, I really, really hated the Florida Gators. And I remember, for some reason, the Gators would not give Gillespie the ball enough,

which made me extremely happy as a Miami fan looking for Schadenfreude. And every time they gave him the ball, he was wildly successful. I just don't, I don't understand now why the bills and the Florida gators have both underutilized Mike Gilleslie. But here comes, here comes Belichick. The one thing, if I was throwing cold water on the gillessly stuff, is that Anthony Lynn in the construction of that offense in Buffalo last year, there's a reason they had the number one and number two running backs by DVOA. They did a great job at just structuring and orchestrating that offense for running game success. And Tyrae Taylor is also a part of that. now when you take him out of that infrastructure,

I'm curious to see what happens. I still think he can be really good, but that is something in my opinion to watch for. Hey, can I make a rebuttal to that last point? You absolutely can. Bill Belichick, Josh McDaniels, and Dante Scarnakia. That's all fair. My guy is Hunter Henry,

and I feel like he's a popular one right now. I think it's with good reason, man. He was fourth in DVOA among tight ends last year. He only had 53 targets, but he averaged 9.02 yards per target. Only four tight ends in the league with at least 50 targets top that. Vernon Davis, Martellus Bennett, or Jason Kelsey? I don't think Jason Kelsey caught many passes last year.

Don't think so. Travis Kelsey and Jimmy Graham. So he really did a lot of work with the opportunities he was given. He had 53 targets on the season. Antonio Gates had 93. There's no way that's how they're distributed this year. I feel like he's going to get a ton of work in an offense that really likes the tight end with a quarterback who's leaned on a tight end for his entire career.

I just feel like he's going to do a ton of stuff in the slot. He's going to be maybe the most important receiver on that team outside of Keenan Allen. And I feel like it wouldn't surprise me at all if he was a top three, top four tight end by the end of the season. I agree. I mean, we've debated the chargers a lot in the last couple of weeks. I can't tell if they're going to be good or not. But certainly I think Hunter Henry's really good.

And I think Anthony Lynn is an incredibly good coach. and if we did a category on coaches I would pick Anthony Lynn to be my leap coach I just I don't know man I mean I just is he when is the inevitable injury just because he plays for the charges yeah when does that happen it's like spinal tap drummers

yeah but it's not just spinal tap if everyone died all the time in terrible ways it's not limited to one position it's like Game with Thrones except just way less interesting just people just go away Oh, that's so true. So I had one other guy I wanted to throw out there, kind of in the Mario Addison mold. Somebody who I've watched every time I've seen him, it's been like, wow, why don't that, why don't he use that guy more?

And it's Paul Powell. He had five and a half yards per carry last year on a terrible jet's offense. Huge on success rate carries. Yes. He was third in DVOA last year. He just really does a lot with the carries that he's given. And I feel like he's going to get a lot of work this year. Success rate.

sounds like one of those scam companies that rip off athletes for like $29 million dollars in a Ponzi scheme like I'm pretty sure that's what the white socks field is called success rate is it really no it's no I think it might be dude it's guaranteed rate feel okay Mike gillisly has guaranteed rates on his on his yards per carry this year yeah it's there's not much to be excited about when it comes to the jets but I do think ball pal is exciting I think that's where it ends though he's the last guy that's exciting could you imagine could you imagine being a fan of a team and saying Bilal Powell is ready to

rock for us. I mean, I just got really excited about Jordan Howard because it's all I have. Don't take this away from me. He's 28 years old. I remember when he was drafted. I mean, he had a long road towards relevance. He's the longest tenured member of the Jets offense. Bilal Powell. Amazing. Never had more than 700 yards in a season.

Got 7.22 last year. That's what that's what I'm saying. This is the year. I'm shorting that. I just want to say I'm coming out against Bilal Palau. I just don't I don't believe in a career, mediocre running back becoming great at age 28. He'll be 29 by October. But he's been solid on a per carry basis. Now he can get more carry.

It just seems like something that it's going to come to an end. I'm just, I'm getting out ahead of it. There's a chance that's true. I'm getting out of it. Let's move to defensive players in the AFC. My guy is Chris Jones from the Chiefs. I loved him coming out. He only had two sacks last year, but 43 pressures.

And I think that position as a whole, you see flashes as a rookie and then really big steps in the second year just because interior pass rushing is something that's hard to get used to in the NFL it's happening so quickly the linemen are so much better than the guys you're playing in college i kind of think of what happened with leonard williams where he was so good as a rookie but then even better in his second year yeah that's what i see from chris jones his hands are so good and he uses them so well i just think that with that kind of those moldable traits and that skill set, he's going to be able to translate that into success last year.

You saw it every once in a while last season, but I think it's going to show up all the time this year. Yeah, I mean, I have no idea what to expect from the Kansas City Chiefs this year, but I think we're going to be talking about Chris Jones as a premier defensive lineman come December. I mean, I think he's a great athlete. No one could, maybe a few folks, but no one, In my mind, right as I think here, could evaluate size and speed quite like John Dorsey. And Chris Jones is just a great example.

I mean, he is the perfect combination of sort of the explosion that the modern NFL is all about. Who's your guy? Logan Ryan. That's a good one. I like Logan Ryan. We talked about him a lot on this podcast, I think, just because we're so excited about the Titans. But I get it. We?

I mean, I think people are excited about the Titans. The Titans are very much a trendy team. You sound like Trump. I think many people would pick the Titans as a breakout team. I don't think I'm out of line in saying that. People are talking. All right. Logan Ryan, really efficient Blitzer last year and just all-around athlete.

We know he can cover. My thought is that the Titans defense is, you know, first really got Dick LaBeau still there. Then you just have the idea, you know, they're going to have to take chances. They're not the Patriots where, you know, they sort of have a system. And obviously, Dick LeBoe is a great. system, but I could see them getting a little more aggressive, late in games, you know, and all of a sudden Logan Ryan makes a couple of big plays that all of a sudden get them to an AFC South championship. That's why I'm sort of projecting a leap from him because he could really be the focal point of a

defensive renaissance. Now, there's a lot of good players on that on that Titans team, but I really think that Logan Ryan could be credited as a real veteran piece that sort of turns a team around. That front four, I love. Yeah. I think Morgan is a really nice player. I've always loved her, Casey. A RACPo is really solid. So you have talent in the front. And now they added a couple pieces. And I think he's a really good player for the way the Titans both play defense and what you need is a modern corner. This idea of inside, outside, it should be interchangeable for really good corners now. And the Titans were number one in the league and the amount of man coverage they played last season. It's like 49.6%, I want to say, no one played it more

often. They put a premium on guys being flexible and being able to move into the slot, all that kind of stuff and Logan Ryan can do that. I think he's a good fit there and I'm excited to see what he'll do is like the number one corner. Maybe it's a Peter principle thing where he rises to his level of incompetence and he doesn't, he can't do that with no one else around, but I think he can't based on what I saw near the end of last season. Logan Ryan is a number one corner excites me more than most things in the NFL in 2017. I'm just, I'm really intrigued to see what he does because I think he's an athlete and I think he can do more than he showed in New England. Just just as far as different stuff. I mean, obviously the blitzing and all that. I totally agree. One other guy I wanted

throw out there just because, again, we're talking about different kinds of leaps, and he was really good as a rookie, but I feel like this is the year where we could talk about him as one of the two, three, four best corners in the league, and that's Jalen Ramsey. I mean, I feel like everything we saw from him in year one, there's no reason to not be excited about him going

into year two. This is a real shit talker, which I really like. I love that. If you're a corner, why wouldn't you be? Real shit talker. And the best part is is that because it was the Jaguards, this will change this year because of AJ Bowley. But last year, I mean, they were never going to throw to him just because there were so many options to throw to.

And so you might as well just talk shit. No one's going to come after you. I'm into it. I'm into Jalen Ramsey in like the 17th straight year of us being excited about the Jaguars defense. I've never done that. I've never done that. Although I do like Doug Maron.

When we briefly discussed coaches, I actually had Doug Maron as a dark horse good coach. Really? Yeah. What is your thought behind that? A, I think Doug Maron is like an above average NFL coach, which I don't think so too. And that's, that's, so you can't, if you take all 32 NFL head coaches, most of them are actually below average. So you have to go to the entire pool of available head coaches and that's how you get your average because they fire guys way too much now to the point that some of these guys are just so, so low on the totem pole that drags the entire average of average head coach down.

So that's my general theory. It's there's a lot of bad coaches. So Morone is an above average coach, which is good. and then I also think the bar is extremely low for Jaguar's sort of Renaissance stories. So if Doug Morone gets to Jaguars to 9 and 7, which I'm not ruling out, I think people are talking about him for Coach of the Year. All right, Kevin, we're going to get to our MVP discussion here in a second. We're going to talk about some of our favorite units and sides of the ball. But before we do that, we're going to take a quick break.

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Or visit goarmy.com slash podcast. They're strong and there's Army strong. Paid for by the United States Army. All right, Kevin, let's dig into this MVP conversation a little bit. And these are guys that we feel like maybe weren't in that discussion last year, but have a chance to be this year. And I think that, you know, that's, we know those people. Nobody's going to sneak up on us here.

The names that we're probably going to. to throw out there are names that wouldn't really surprise anyone, I don't think. Yeah, I mean, everyone knew Matt Ryan last year. It wasn't, you know, it wasn't like you could go out and find an MVP, you know, it's not going to be Mario Addison. We love Mario Madison, but it's not going to be him. And so it's, there's a, no, not everyone's necessarily talking about Matt Ryan as the MVP. No, but I'm saying there's a pool of generally accepted guys who could win the MVP.

Yes. It's like the president. You know, it's like, you know, three years out, we sort of know who the candidates are. And so I think that Ryan was probably in some sort of top 15 ranking, right? He was probably near the bottom of that. I would be surprised if he was in. I'd like to look at the betting numbers on that. I'm sure he was in the top 20.

Probably in the top 20, but he was further down the list than, I mean, he was down the list. He was not one of the guys that you would throw out there first. And I think that looking at these betting numbers for this year, you know, it's kind of interesting. Who are the guys that have a real chance? who are the guys that are expected to be in there. I mean, you look at the numbers, the guys at the top are who we'd expect. It's Brady, it's Rogers. You know, Ryan's up there now.

But those are the ones that, that's not a leap. You expect those guys to be there. They're MVP candidates every year. So who's a guy for you that is maybe a little bit further down that list that you think has a realistic shot? I think the big thing is you have to look at why players win the MVP. Number one reason is the team wins and you were the best player. I mean, it's an unfair thing. But really writers and voters,

love riding the coattails of a narrative. That's why Derek Carr was even in the discussion last year. When Derek Carr had, you know, by the stand, Derek Carr had the same yards per attempt as Sam Bradford last year, okay? I'm not, Derek Carr is a significantly better player than San Bradford. But I'm just saying, if you're looking from a pure statistical standpoint, the narrative had something to do with it, the fact that he brought the Raiders back to relevance. So if when I'm looking at potential candidates, I think James Winston has the chance to do it

for a couple reasons. Number one, I think that the team is primed for a breakout. We've talked about this before. I think they are this year's Raiders in the sense that the expectation should be very high. They should not be judged as a dark horse. They should be judged as a team with a lot of talent that should make the playoffs. The second thing is he was pretty good last year. He had 28 touchdowns.

And, you know, as we said... He was fine last year. That's a thing. He was fine, but still had 28 touchdown. Pretty good, 28 touchdowns. 18 interceptions. The year before Derek Carr's quote-unquote breakout, season. He had 13 interceptions, 32 touchdowns. You know, the completion percentage is only 60%,

which needs to probably come up to 65% in order for him to be a truly elite passer. But I mean, you know, you look at the guys he's ahead of in yards per attempt. He lapped Derek Carr. And so I just think he has the basis to have a breakout season and then the Bucks win 11 games and we're in all of a sudden James is in the discussion. I still think that every year, It's going to be a sort of Brady, Aaron Rogers, you know, maybe throw Russell Wilson in there.

If the Seacocks have really good team, I would probably pick that group of guys. But I really do think James Winston's going to at least be a dark horse candidate this season. I think Winston's a great one. I mean, just based on what we think that team could be that offense with DeShon Jackson and Mike Evans. And as far as bang for your buck goes,

he might be the best one. We're looking at this right now on Aitchark. He's 50 to 1. 50 to 1. He has the same odds as Adrian Peterson and Kirk Cousins. And Carson Palmer. Yeah. Sam Bradford.

That's a pretty good one. Where can I bet on Sam Bradford not winning the MVP? I don't think there's odds for that. There's no one that I'll give you that. I will put any amount of money on that and then get back like 50 bucks. Winston being down that far makes no sense to me. And we talk about the opportunities to win. You have to be a certain type of quarterback to win the MVP.

And that's why even if the Titans are really good, I'm worried about whether Marioita can be a volume passer to the degree he would need to to win it. He threw it 44 less times last season than Cam did when Cam won the MVP. The problem is he ran it half as much. So Cam won it in part because he's very unique in how they use him. But Mario does not. He doesn't run it enough. He's athletic, but he's not a centerpiece of the running game.

And if they don't throw the ball more, it doesn't matter how good he is. it's going to be tough for him to win it. Winston's not that. They threw the ball 567 times last year. So it doesn't take much for him to have a considerably better season. The other guy that, based on odds, it isn't really a dark horse candidate, but it would still be a leap, is that Prescott. I mean, it would be easier to imagine Jack Prescott winning it than a lot of other people. But at this point, that's not really that controversial.

Yeah, I mean, he's tied for fifth best odds behind Brady Rogers car Routhis. Burger tied with Wilson. And I know Rathusberger's right there. He's 10 to 1. He's fourth, but he still never won it. So it would be kind of a mini leap. And in my mind, just the end point on his progression as a really good quarterback. And I just think that offense has a chance to be so, so good that you can imagine him

throwing for 4,600 yards and 38 touchdowns. It's not out of the question. Sure. The one thing I'll say, and this is not a leap thing, this is not a value judgment on Prescott is it's always going to be hard for either Prescott or Elliott to win an award like that because they're just going to split the votes. It's going to be like the freaking 2002 Miami team where they just, you know, everybody should win the Heisman and so all of a sudden no one does.

I think, I always think that's anytime you have two sort of alphas, there's always a problem with voters. Yeah, and they throw on the ball so much where I would usually give it to the quarterback in nearly any MVP discussion, but because Elliott's going to get so much work, it becomes a lot closer about when you're talking about Dallas than it would be with pretty much any other team. Yeah. I mean, listen, Tennessee is going to have a similar problem.

Not that either DeMarco Murray or Derek Henry are so talented. It's just more that Tennessee is always going to try to run the ball in order to pass the ball. That Mike Marke talks about it all the time. The exotic smashmouth joke got run into the ground, but it's real. They really want to have bulk and they want that passing game to be not a last resort, but certainly something that they work their way towards it. He's never going to pass it like Winston does. Exactly what you've been saying.

all right defensive player of the year let's dig into that one i mean this one for me is really easy i mean a guy that maybe could have won it last year if he had played 16 games joey bosa is already one of the best three pass rushers in the NFL i mean if he gets 20 this year and wins it on a really good defense but that surprise anyone no no i mean i exactly he easily if if the charges had done anything last year and he he was healthy i think you're i think you're looking at defensive player of the year for this year i mean i think that Maybe Max still wins, but I just, he was an absolute force last year. 59 pressures on 341 past rush nap.

It's just set records. I mean, his, it was amazing to see the weekly pro football focus thing where they were released like, you know, most pressures in a week or most pressures from rookie. It was like Joey Bosa was rewriting the record books. It was incredible. And this award, we talked about this a little bit, you and I. It's easy to trace who might win this award because it's the same tier of prospect. year. The last time a non

first round pick won defensive player of the year was nine years ago. That was James Harrison. It's that guy. It's that type of prospect every year. And Bosa goes right into that. But outside of Bosa, think of the guys that have won it. Koleo Mac, J.J. Watt. I mean, those are the types

of players that win this award. And it just makes sense that he would be the next guy to step right into that. Right. I mean, that's that's it. I mean, and that's what we're discussed all the time about explosion. is the guys who can explode and can rush the passer who are incredible, we know who those guys are because there's so much analytics. There's so many different things that we know.

And essentially, you cannot get an explosive defensive athlete past the drafters now. They're going to be a first-round pick. And so the era of the pass rusher who was maybe a hidden gem, that that's over. I would say what's interesting now is, I think, cornerback, you can still find those gems. I'm not saying Chris Harris could win the defensive player of the year. year, but I am saying he was undrafted and he's one of the best defensive players in the NFL. Yeah, that's true. It's harder for corners to win it, though. It's been a long time since a corner won it. I mean, the last pure cornerback to win defensive player of the year was Dion Sanders, man.

I mean, because I know Charles Woodson won it in 2009, but he was not a cornerback. No. I mean, they used him in the slot all the time. He blitzed. I mean, his stat line looks nothing like a typical cornerbacks. So you would have to have a ton of interceptions in order to win the award. right now it seems like there are two types of guys that win it they're the out of this world statistical season guys like watt has been like mac was last year they are the centerpiece of a really good defense guys and i think that le keekly was probably in that conversation paul malu was like that woodson was when he won it james harrison was and i think that's why narrative plays into this too maybe a guy like ryan shazir if the steelers defense is really good and then maybe one of those guys

on the Texans defense because if it's a top two unit, if it's far and away the best in the league, sometimes just the best player from that group is going to get the nod. Right. I mean, the one thing we need to make clear on all award show discussions is that the voters are almost always wrong. They are wrong most of the time, yes. Then again, I don't know who you have vote because the players are always wrong too. Yeah, they probably do it in the best way.

Yeah. But it still is never going to be as good as we want. be. No. Who is your guy? Oh, Clowny. Chadevian Clowny. That makes total sense. I mean, a lot of what I said he fits into this. One of the things I want to make clear

is it's not, I'm not saying Klein is going to win the defensive player of the year. I'm saying he's the guy who's going to take the leap into that discussion. Yeah. Because last year, he really had his breakout year. I mean, I remember he was excellent. I started to work on a

Colomack story and I think I think it was in November. And there were all these people who were almost sort of joking around people in the NFL, people around Mac, people around both the Texans, the Raiders, whomever. People who know a lot about football. And it was almost a joke, like the fact that Mac was drafted behind Clowny. And by playoff time, I think Clowny was such a force. I think that he's come back a little bit in that conversation. It was still the right pick.

It was still the right pick. I stand by that. It still was. He is good enough now where that is not a travesty anymore. He was that good and he was that unique as a talent. I truly believe that. I'm all in on Clowny. I love Clowny,

but I'd much rather have Callow Mac. Of course. You'd rather have Colleenow Mac knowing what you know now. Oh, okay. So I think at the time, I'm sorry. It was still the right pick. Oh, no, no.

I'd rather have Cleo Mac. Okay. If you redraft, if you redraft, it would go, Mac would go first. Of course. Yeah, okay. At that time, when it happened, there was the right choice based on the information at the time. Hey, let me ask you a question.

If you redraft right now, does Mac go first? Does Derek Carr go first? Derek Carr probably goes first. Does O'Dow Beckham go before Mac? No. Would you take? I would much rather have Cleo Mac than O'Dow Becker. Would you trade all your top five picks in this redraft for Zach Martin?

I would. Okay. That's not what I'm not an NFLGM. I wasn't asking the listener. I was asking Robert Mays. Yeah. I would. I mean, clearly I would.

Yeah, he's the best player in the NFL. Beyond players, it also seems like every single year, we have units that take the leap. And whether that's a position group or even a single side of the ball, it feels like sometimes all at once they can take a step forward. And for me, there's one side of the ball that sticks out and that's one team's side of the ball. And that's Atlanta's defense. I just think that based on what we saw at the end of last season, that was not a fluke. We talked about them last year, or excuse me, last week when I was mentioning how good a defense coach I think Quinn is.

But I just think that group with all of those young guys has a chance to be really, really, really, really good this year. And like a top 10 defense in the league sort of good. And that's a big step forward from where they were a year ago. But if you just look at how well they've settled in as a group, what Dion Jones can be, he's a player we haven't mentioned yet. They have all the pieces to make a huge step forward. Yeah, I mean.

I got, I sort of got in trouble with some members of the Falcons organization for shorting the Falcons defense last year. I'm not going to, I'm not going to do it again. Don't say it. Don't say it. I'm not going to do that again. I love the Falcons defense. They're a fantastic NFC champion defense.

So I believe in that. I mean, I think Don Terry Poe is a bargain. He's the type of bargain. I can't believe that he didn't end up on the Patriots somehow. It's the perfect addition. Why is he not a Patriot? what they needed. Why is he not playing running back? Because our branch is cheap and the Patriots got him back for relatively nothing.

You play him or you do the Belichick thing. You just play him out of position. Him in the middle of that defense with Jones, with Devonre Campbell, the safeties that they have, Desmond Truffon coming back. We can list them all. And it just really does look like it's going to settle in. I mean, it's all going to fall into place personnel-wise for them to have a really good group over there. Do you think they're going to go back to the Super Bowl?

No, I've already said that. I don't think they're going to go back to Super Bowl. I think the offense is going to take enough of a step back, but I think the defense has a chance to be really good. Is there a position group that you're excited about? Yes, I love, love the Pittsburgh Steelers pass rush. That's a good one. I figured you might.

Because of the spark numbers. Yeah, you love your spark numbers. It's all I care about. I was just on the phone with some spark guy like an hour ago. I just didn't want to get the phone with him. I just want to talk to him. He's just like staring at his watch being like, man, I really got to go.

I hate this guy so much. Yeah, he just had so much information about Spark. It's all I wanted to know. Okay, so the Stewart's Pass Rush. So, you know, not everyone is just a sort of spark player. I want to make that clear. Some of these guys are, you know, some of these guys have proven they can play. They're not just projects.

So first of you have Cam Hayward. You have Stefan Tewitt. Two really good players. I love on that line. Javon Hargrave was someone who was at least above average last year. He's getting a lot of buzz. He's a third round rookie. He got a lot better. He gave you a lot better return than you probably thought. Yeah, no, definitely. He's getting a lot of buzz to sort of breakout candidate this year.

I still believe in Bud Dupree. A lot of that, you know, he really disappeared last year. I mean, there were some games where he might have been the worst player on the field. I mean, and then that's reflected in some of the grades he got. I mean, he was, he really needs to have more consistency this year, but I still believe in the guy. I mean, his numbers were off the charts. And we know what are the four and a half The lesson we learned from Vic Beasley was that when it gets turned on, it really gets turned on. And so I'm waiting for that from Dupree, and I think it's going to happen. I think it's going to happen this year. Ryan Shazier, obviously, is a great member of the defense.

You know, you have James Harrison there as sort of a safety blanket, but I'm not sure how long that whole thing lasts. I mean, obviously, James Harrison is as in shape as any human being in NFL history. But, you know, at some point, you've got to let the young guys play. and so who's behind him, first round pick, T.J. Watt. T.J. Watt. If James Harrison was not there, I'd still be excited about this, but you have James Harrison. Maybe he plays the first couple weeks of the year.

The Steelers love, or they used to love, easing guys into the program. Tom went and Culver all about that. That hasn't happened in the last couple of years because of just injuries and the need to get guys, maybe some contract problems. So all of a sudden you have to play these rookies right away. But having James Harrison, his security blanket,

for a really good athlete in T. Watt, I'm really into that. It's going to be so fun the first time we get to hear about T.J. Watts Motor and how he was just a real try hard guy when he had a 90th percentile three cone and 95th percentile broad jump at the combine. Well, that's the same thing with JJ Watt, too. It's the same thing. I mean, they're just ridiculous athletes.

Jay J.J. Watt is the person. When you do, if you ever want to play a game and figure out how athleticism in the NFL works, just you sort of go around with edge rushers and put your hand over the names and look at the broad and the vertical. the weight and the height and then the three cone and some of the movement stuff, right? And you will figure out really quickly without looking at the names who the NFL superstars are. J.J. Watt is like so far better than everybody else in all of those drills that it's almost ludicrous.

I mean, he is the most athletic person like in the last decade. It's incredible. All right. The position group that I wanted to talk about just before we get out of here, it's not a hard one to predict them being a lot better is the Brown's offensive line. I mean, you look at the fact you start with Joe Thomas, Betonio is back, you sign J.C. Treter, you sign Kevin Zeiler. You have two guys that are very good plug-in-play starters. They're going to be good. They're going to be a very solid unit,

and I think they have a chance to bring that offense to respectability. I mean, they're not going to be God-awful, and I think it's because of that offensive line. And whatever quarterback steps in there, whether it's Kessler or they give the Sean Kaiser a shot, I think that the infrastructure that now exists there with the line and some of those receivers is a nice place for the quarterback on a bottom basement team to walk into. The Browns offensive line has a similar problem to the 49ers defensive line and pass rush,

which is that they're going to be much better than people think and just no one's going to care. No, no one's going to care. Except for me. I'm going to care. They're going to find out both of those units were good. Like when next year's football outsider's guide comes out, like a literal year. year from right now. Yeah.

That's the other way. Browns. Browns. It's very good. And then they just move on, just find out eight more Brady stats. Well,

I'm jumping out ahead of that. I'm telling you right now, the Browns offensive line is going to be really good. Don't just don't bring that up during the season. No, no, no. This is the last time we're going to talk about the bronze

offensive line. I promise. All right, buddy. I think that's all we got. You and me are going to be at camps this week. We're going to be at camps for the next couple weeks. So,

We'll do our best to report with some boots on the ground stuff there, let you know what we're seeing, what we're excited about. Next week, we're going to start our preseason podcast coverage. We're going to be asking pretty much all the important questions about the upcoming year, some not important questions, but ones we still have to ask. And we'll be doing that up until the season starts. It's close as anything. It's here.

Hi, buddy. As always, thank you guys for listening, and we will be back soon. Things change. The weather changes. Your mood definitely changes. So why lock yourself into plan? that might change. With Hotel Tonight, you don't have to because you'll get incredible deals on awesome hotels even at the last minute. Booking on Hotel Tonight gives you the freedom and

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