The Ringer NFL Show - The Lions' Huge Win to Start the Season, Week 1 NFL Picks, Props and Predictions! | Extra Point Taken

Episode Date: September 8, 2023

Sheil and Ben discuss the Chiefs' disappointing opening-night loss to the Lions at Arrowhead without Travis Kelce and Chris Jones. What will be the biggest headline Monday morning following the first weekend of NFL football? Will Sean Payton have Russell Wilson playing like he did in Seattle? What props do Sheil and Ben like for the week? The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please check out theringer.com/RG to find out more or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Sheil Kapadia and Ben Solak Producer: Cliff Augustin Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Musical Elements: Devon Renaldo Social: Kiera Givens and Eduardo Ocampo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey everyone, this is Craig Horlebeck from the Ringer Fantasy Football Show. Join me, Danny Hifitz and Danny Kelly every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday to help you win your draft, win your league, and most importantly, avoid that last place punishment. Follow the Ringer Fantasy Football Show on Spotify. Welcome to Extra Point. Take in the 20-23 NFL season is underway. Shield Kapati here, joined by Ben Soak. That's right. We're coming to you twice a week all year. This is the Friday show. we just watched the Detroit Lions go into Arrowhead Stadium upset the Kansas City Chiefs 2120. We're going to talk about that, and we're going to talk about the rest of the week one slate.

Ben Solac looks fired up after having just watched a football game. How are we doing? It's exactly that. I just watched a football game. It was meaningful, and the things that happened mattered, and the starters were out there, except for the Chiefs receivers, they were playing all their backups for some reason. What a rewarding experience. Let's start with the Lions.

So we're going to talk about this game and then we're going to have a fun format for everyone as we look ahead to the rest of the games that are happening this weekend. A lot of good stuff that we're excited about. But if you're a Lions fan, I'm not going to be the podcast host who says, it's only one week. You know, they didn't have to. No, enjoy this game. This is why you are a sports fan. You were pumped about this season. You've probably had nothing to cheer for about this team for your entire life.

into the season with high expectations. Betty Solst and I both picked your team to win the NFC North and you go into Arrowhead. Like I said, it wasn't always pretty. This is the thing. The Lions didn't play a perfect game. There was a time in the fourth quarter

where I thought we were going to come on this podcast and be like, ooh, you know, other than Amon Ross St. Brown, they're throwing these screens to Josh Reynolds and Marvin Jones on third down. Did we overrate the supporting cast? Do they have enough? They're giving up some big plays defensively, but they

battled, they grind it, they put together big drives when it mattered in the fourth quarter. And that is a big time win. And Ben, my big takeaway from watching that Lions team is that they just have a lot of talented young players. I mean, if you're a Lions fan, you're saying Aidan Hutchinson bowled out tonight. Brian Branch had the pick sticks. Jamir Gibbs, I thought, looked terrific in this game. You have maybe the best young offensive linemen in the NFL in Pene Seul. Amon Raus Saint Brown is what a third year player. All these guys are on. rookie contracts, they all looked good. They all looked ready for the moment. That was kind of my number one takeaway from this game. Sam LaPorteur looked like what you bought. Yeah.

Jack Campbell had himself a splash play. Josh Paso had himself a splash play, right? That's the thing. We can keep this train going. They had Levi and Wuzeriki out there starting, which they've been trying to get him out on the field. He's been unhealthy defensive tackle. Like, I've ran about, this is my third year at the ringer. So I've been here for two full NFL seasons. I've read about the Lions rebuild twice. I write about it for like week 15. every single year at this point. It's a, it's a tradition. But the reason I do is because they're just doing it the right way. Let's draft guys who fit a particular mold for us. And even if that means we're going to take a running back at 12 and a linebacker at 18 and invite some criticism,

I was very critical of that. Whatever, this is our approach. So we're going to invest in those players. We're going to invest in youth. We're going to ride their ups and ride their downs. And that's going to pay us off later by having not just a successful team, but a team that is young, but also has experience and is young but also like fits together and has synergy. I forgot to mention Derek Barnes. How long it took Derek Barnes again on the field? He started a mic for them. Like there's just guy after guy, third round pick, fourth round pick,

dude brought in from a different team, dude, a guy who was underdraft because of size, whatever. Like you just have such, they threw so many darts and they invested in so many of those young players. And you could see how much the coaching staff cares about those guys and how much they want to coach up those players. And so you get this team that has these warm and rosy and fuzzy feelings. We're like, all right, if everything comes,

together, they can be great. And this was far from that game, right? It was far from it. There was one point at this game where the Lions were like nine drives in and they had 14 points on a 14 play drive that had a fourth down fake punt at our own 17 yard line conversion. And the other seven points came from not the offense. There was a night where this was, there was a point in the night in which this was a concerning offensive outcome. And then he scored the last seven points. you get off the field on defense and you're able to win this by one and it still feels good. So now you have the momentum, you have the juice, you knocked out the Super Bowl champion. There's still a lot of questions to answer.

There's still stuff to figure out. But you get the win on the scoreboard, right? You get the thumbs up and not the thumbs down. And now you say, okay, we know we're legitimate because that team won it all last year and we just beat them. Yeah, to your point, they had one touchdown on their first one, two, three, four, eight possessions through the first three quarters, they had one offensive touchdown. If you would have told me that four hours ago that they were going to have one touchdown on their first. first aid possessions, I'd be, okay, they lost by at least two touchdowns in this game. But

their defense, I was going back and forth. They were giving up some explosive plays. I thought, okay, you know, this isn't like a, we talked so much about them reshaping their secondary, but this isn't a great group. But hey, they got stops down the stretch. I mean, the Chiefs did not score a second half touchdown. Now, some of that was a little Andy Reid game management, getting a little cute at times, getting a little conservative at times, I thought. But the Chief's Final one, two, three, four, five, six, seven possessions. They did not score a touchdown. They had two field goals.

And so Chauncey Gardner Johnson, we both watched Chauncey Gardner Johnson on film every game last season. I thought this was better that he played like in any individual game last season. He was fired up. That's without having reviewed the film. But his hands were not as good as they were after six picks last season. He had two hit his mitts and he did not bring him in. It felt like they were making the mistakes you can't make against Mahomes, right?

Yeah. They were giving up these long third down conversions. They were letting him scramble, right? Campbell, Dan Campbell, the head coach, gave the great half-time interview where he was like on defense. That was awesome. He's doing the thing we knew he would do it. We were supposed to stop him and we're not.

Like, you could see the frustration pouring out of a coach who has to go up against this guy, this unbelievable force that Mahomes was. And don't get a twisted, man. Like, Mahomes was good. Mahomes was on one tonight. Mahomes was playing extremely well. I think my number one takeaway from this game, if you're cool transitioning lines to be here, is just how dire of a straight run with these chiefs receivers.

And a lot of them are young, right? You have a second year player in Skymore, first year players in Rishie Rice, second year player in Justin Ross. You have, as they nerd at the top of the broadcast, even the veterans, Marquezvolda Scantling and Richie James and Justin Watson have maximum one year of experience in this offense with Mahomes. And so you have a lot of inexperience. have a lot of youth. You have, they had seven receivers active this game, which is a ludicrous number.

You never see that. So they have a lot of different body types, and they're experimenting with it. And obviously, the elephant in the room is that Kelsey's not playing. But, like, uh, Juju made this offense, like, pretty functional, right? Like, Mikul Harmon had been around for a few years. They knew how to use him. I'm not saying those guys are highly impassful players, but you can at least set your watch to them a little bit more than you can say your watch to sky more who couldn't

catch Cadarius Tony, who really couldn't catch. I mean, they are, like, Marquezvoldus Scanling was the most. reliable and consistent receiver they had tonight. And if MVS is the most reliable and consistent player you have in a position, you are in a bad way at that position. That's your variance player. That's your high up, slow downs player. You should not be expecting him to kind of set the pulse for the team. So they really need one of these young guys to step up. They need to figure out what that development looks like over the next month or so, because if they don't get what they want out of these next few games and some of these young players, they have to consider adding a veteran because this was nasty,

nasty stuff in the receiver room. Yeah, I'm trying not to, I'm trying hard not to overreact with the, with the Chiefs, because they've done, they've been unorthodox with a lot of their team building on the offensive side of the ball. You know, after the Super Bowl, they rebuild their entire offensive line in one offseason. And usually that doesn't work out well. Well, it worked out well for them. Last off season, they trade Tyree Kill. You generally don't trade Tyree Kill and then become better on offense. But that's what happened. And so I was just at the point going into the season where I said, all right, two new offensive tackles. They lose their leading wide receiver from last year. But you know what? They have Mahomes. They have Andy Reid. I don't care. I think

they're going to be the best offense in the NFL. And guess what? They very well might be the best offense in the NFL when we're talking three, four months from now. But yeah, I do think if you're a Chiefs fan, you look at this and go some of the maybe rostered decisions we made. And these are like, they just lost one type. They lost one player. Like this is, this is the group. They lost Travis Kelsey is a great player. But think of the other awesome, like, the Eagles offense. If they lose A.J. Brown, they're different, but they still have Devante Smith and Dallas Scott. The Bengals. They lose Jamar Chase. All right, that's going to hurt. But we saw that

last year. They were still a very good offense with T. Higgins there. And so these are the teams you're talking about competing with. And so you lose your tight end for a game. And it was kind of just like, yeah, they couldn't get anyone to make a play. I mean, Cadarius, Tony, in many ways, lost them this game with the pick six and then the drop pass in the fourth quarter. a disaster in this game. So, like, this game was really testing the limits of how much is it just Mahomes and Andy Reid and nothing else really matters? And there are obvious limits to that situation there if those other guys don't step up. They had 316 yards, Ben. That's their, that was lower than all but two games for them last year. So yeah, this was, and you're right,

it wasn't on Mahomes. I mean, Mahomes was just picking up yards with his legs, making ridiculous throws down field. He has the drive before halftime where he has three completions of over 25 yards. But you just kind of look at that supporting cast and really when Kelsey comes out, you look around and are like, who's going to make a play here? And tonight, there was just no one to do that. Yeah. And it's not for not trying for the guys, right? I mean, like, it's, what is it? Was it three or 30 million on Marcus Vald of Scanling last season? Second round pick on Sky Moore. Second round pick on Rishie Rice. They sent a third to the Giants for Cadarius, Tony, I want to say. So it's funny. It's not like they said, all right, we have Mahomes. We can completely stop

investing in this position. It's they said we can defray our investments. We can just throw a lot of dice. We can throw a lot of darts. And as long as we hit on one or two, we're good. And that's the thing about throwing darts. As times you run cold, right? When you run cold, it really does expose. Okay, we lose Kelsey and we're in this bad spot. Yeah. Mahomes in this game expected points added per dropback of a negative point zero five, which it is very rare to find a game in which Mahomes is consistently negative. But that gets killed because of the pick six. I mean, that's it. You know, that that's really going to be the big play there. He was, yeah. Yeah, I mean, listen, he averaged 5.8 yards per 10th, which has to be, you know, among his lowest

average yards per attempt for a game, certainly in recent memory. Now, he was making plays with his legs for sure six scramble for 45 yards there they had a couple short yardage plays where you were kind of like all right andy's get you know Andy Reid's a Hall of Fame coach he's a great coach but we've seen there are moments where Andy Reid will have some head scratchers in this game and I thought there were definitely a couple of those here uh here tonight fourth downs for both both teams too right uh the the lines had like a fourth and two on the chiefs 40 that they decided to punt on. And it's like, all right, this isn't going to help you.

Andy doesn't go for a fourth and four. And then on the next drive is like fourth and 20, baby. Let's kick it. Fourth and 25. Right. He lines up at fourth and 20. You get the penalty and you go run it back. Fourth and 25.

So yeah, I was really worried there when Dan Campbell went for that fourth down and didn't get it, that fourth and two before the lines got that final stop, that they were going to lose the game on that. We were going to have to do fourth down discourse. Like one game into the season, we were going to have to do it. So thank you, Lions defense, for holding it up. Last thing I'll say on this game that stands out to me is I was very curious to see how well this lion's pass rush would perform against what's a good Chief's offensive line, I think, overall.

But also, like, you don't know what the tackle switch is, just how good the Chiefs' offensive line is. You kind of walk into this game with, like, Chief's Offensive Line kind of a question mark, and then Lions defensive line kind of a question mark. So we got to get a few more games worth of data right now but I would say overall like that lion's pass rush impressed.

It's tough to get Mahomes down. They suffered on the scramble a lot but they did hassle him. They moved him consistently. So right now they kind of edged lean to being like, all right, Hodge took a step forward which I was at Lions camp

and I watched him and I was like yeah, okay, this is, he looks good. He looks bigger, he looks stronger, he looks faster. They obviously have, like I said, they have Pascoeal back, they have Charles Harris, they have a Lee McNeil

on the inside lighter. Like it just seemed like they were generally getting good, good push, good rush the entire time. So like in that battle in that conversation, I lean Lyons past rush, like might have a little bit more legs than we thought. I could not possibly be less interested in Jawan Taylor line up and false start discourse. Holy smokes. I don't know we were going to do that nine times. That's my version of the fourth, fourth down stuff. And I'm like, I can't, no, I don't like, somebody just tell me what's allowed and what's not allowed. I can't get caught up in these discussions. It's the way that it's like,

it's the way that we're always so shocked by like the consistent creeping of where the line is, right? Because you're supposed to line up with your head on the center's belt. Nobody does. No one does. And just, Juan Taylor just continues to line up further back and further back until somebody yells at him, right? Which like, that's what you're going to do when the rule is clearly broken. Nobody lines up as far up as they should be. Just keep on scoching back. Like, why is this revolutionary? The whole like, oh, he's false starting thing. Everybody has been doing this for forever. Like, why do we? But we have to be. St. Peter's special. We have Patrick Mahomes playing, and I'm getting slow motion replays of Duan Taylor setting

his feet before the snap. Can I see 15? I would like to see 15 throw the ball, please. Oh, my God. I completely agree. I completely agree with that. How did that become the dominant storyline in the first game of the season? That was absolutely very weird.

Yeah, you look at the numbers you were mentioning on the Lions pass rush. Zero sacks, but seven quarterback hits. I'm with you. I thought they affected the game. I thought Mahomes was making incredible plays, second reaction plays. But I thought Hutchinson was great. They lined him up inside against the guard, pray Smith, and he was really having success doing that.

And that's the other thing is, Juan Taylor's lining up nine yards back, and he's jumping off the line of scrimmage, and then everyone's flabbergasted that the B gap's wide open. Like all the inside spins are hitting, all the rush against the guard. Yeah, it's because Taylor's through the mood. That's the cause of doing this.

My last point on this game is, I've done like a complete 180 on Dan Campbell. I was making the kneecap jokes. I was making the Starbucks jokes. When he got hired, I thought, all right, this guy is going to be a disaster. And then they're showing him on the sideline at the end of the game. And I'm watching his face. And I'm like, I'm happy for this guy.

Like, I think, you know, I'm guilty of you're basing so much about what you see from a coach, kind of by what they're doing in-game decision. I love that stuff. You're going to hear that on this show. all year long, fourth down, you know, Andy Reid, kick two field goals on fourth and two this year. I'm going to be talking about that. But I do think there's also the bigger pictures, sort of the Pete Carroll corollary of does this guy get his team ready to play? Do his guys play hard? Is there sort of a good culture, a good camaraderie? Are people playing for each other? And I think that

shines through with this Lions team for sure. And I thought it started to show last year in the second half of the season. I thought it showed tonight. And again, if you're a Lions fan, Don't let anyone tell you it's only one game. Calm down, settle down. No, you should be excited about this win. Going into Arrowhead, beating Patrick Mahomes on the road. That's not easy. I don't care who his supporting cast is.

And you went in there and you did it in kind of a hard-fought game where not everything even went in your way. So it's the Lions week so far. We'll see where we end out once we get to Monday night. But congrats to the Lions. Chiefs are going to be fine. We'll see what happens with the supporting cast. They're going to win double-digit games

and have a top five offense. Right. That was the last thing I was going to ask you was going to be, before this game, what percent chance would you have put that the Chiefs are going to go to the Super Bowl? Like, what? 8% chance, right? Make it up. After this game, 1% chance you're putting on it.

Eight, like it does like it like, like there are small scope problems the Chiefs need to figure out, offensive tackle play, wide receiver play. None of these look like large scope problems yet to me. Chiefs are extremely good. Lions just feel a little bit more legit. Yeah, if you want the glass half full for the Chiefs, I mean, I didn't think their defense would play that well without Chris Jones. And like you said, eight possessions, they gave up one touchdown.

So yeah, the Chiefs are going to be fine, even if the opener didn't go their way. All right, we're going to take a break. We're going to come back. I'm going to get some fun stuff looking ahead to the rest of the slate in week one. Get ready for the NFL season with incredible offers from. fan duel America's number one sports book. Right now, new customers can bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets guaranteed. Plus, all customers who bet $5 will get $100 off NFL Sunday ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV. One I'm looking at this weekend, how about the Titans plus three at

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YouTube TV-based plan required to watch YouTube TV. Redemption requires a Google account and current form of payment, commercial use excluded. All right, we are back on extra point taken. All right. So we came up with a bunch of categories to purlatives. I don't even know how to. how to describe them. Ben, we kind of, I wouldn't say we did this on the fly. We put some time into

this with the rest of the team, the great team at the Ringer and tried to come up with a format for this show that would work, but it's going to be a little work in progress. You know, if we do it and we didn't like something, we'll change it for next week. We'll have it figured out by, what do you think, by like Halloween. We'll have something that we can agree about. I don't know. Maybe it'll happen sooner than that. Thanksgiving. There you go. Christmas. We'll give ourselves some time. So first Valentine's Day. Valentine's Day. No, before that, I'm not potting with you. Valentine's Day is the week after the Super Bowl and we'll be on vacation. That's a long way away. We got a full few hundred total. I like how you already know. I got no idea what I mean this stuff is. When you start planning these family vacations, listen, you're like a doctor or something. You got to do it like a year ahead of time to make sure you can make it. All right. First category. Headliner. Very simple. What are you looking for this weekend? Week one. It's week one. You could literally go. go in any direction. We have so many questions. We've made so many predictions. What are you looking

for? It could be a game. It could be a player. It could be a matchup. Whatever. When Ben Solex hits down to watch football on Sunday, what is he most excited for? What is he looking for? Yeah. There are two games that I'm so excited for, most excited for above all the others. One I'm going to talk about a little bit later. So the one for my headliner is Chargers Dolphins. This to me is the headline game. It's the marquee game. This is the game between the two best teams that I expect, right? Like, I expect both. He seems to be really good this season on a Sunday. And the, the vision for the dolphins is, hey, the charges really got you in year one. They got you last year, right? This defense matched up excellently against Tuotung of Iloa. When the dolphins came to

town, they had just lost to the Niners. The Niners had kind of laid out a little bit of a blueprint for what to do against this Dolphins offense. And the charges had put in their defense. They iterated it. They got Michael Davis involved. And they just sat in the middle of the field and really dared the dolphins either run on them or throw outside the numbers. The dolphins couldn't do it. The question for the dolphins is, what's your response in year two? I think Mike McDaniel spent a lot of time investing in the running game and thinking about how to make this offense less reliant on just that one play, just that kind of one sequence of throwing over the middle of the field. Okay, well, no warm up, no dress rehearsal. You ain't get the Houston Texans in week one, baby.

This is the Chargers. These guys were at an issue for you last season. What does that look like? And then for the Chargers, you may not have had the same problems against the Dolphins defense, but you had problems on offense. You had systematic stuff that people could pick on, the same way you picked on that Dolphins team. Other teams would line their corners up at seven yards and not move, because they kind of knew what was coming. Now you have Joe Lombardi exit, the old offensive coordinator, and Callan Moore come in.

This Chargers' offense with the investments that they have made over the last couple of years at wide receiver and along the offensive line. With the retention of Austin Echler, after conference, disputes this summer. I mean, like, if you just forget everything you knew about the Chargers and you just looked at this group, you'd go, they should score a ton of points. They should throw the ball over the yard and do so successfully. Well, here you are now against the Dolphins defense that's been retooled. It's a Vic Fangio defense. It's got a lot of talent. This is a good first test for you. And so offensive changes on both sides of the ball for the Dolphins with the same coaching staff

of trying to evolve. And then for the Chargers with a new coaching staff, I want to see which one looks more legit in week one. It's a great matchup. I mean, these have been two teams that have been talked about so much. We've done it on this show all offseason long. What's plan B for Mike McDaniel? You mentioned it. Tua was 10 for 28 in that game against the Chargers last season. And so, okay, you kind of know how they were going to defend you in that game like you just described. What's your plan B? What are you going to do here? Tehran Armstead, Dolphins left tackle, has still not practiced this week through Thursday. And so that's something to keep an eye on whether or not he's going to play in that game on Sunday. And then, yeah, the other side of the ball,

the charges, like the pressures on. I'm with you. I had them as the sixth ranked offense in the NFL going into the season. The pieces are there for Justin Herbert. He's got a very good offensive line. He's got enough people to throw the ball to. And Kellyn Moore directed, coordinated, top five offense multiple times with the Dallas Cowboys. This isn't some unknown who you got from, you know, somewhere else and you're giving him a promotion. No, this is somebody who actually has the resume that he's shown. when Dak Prescott was healthy, he can coordinate a top tier offense. So yeah, I'm definitely looking forward to that game.

That's a good one. Something that's particularly interesting about the Chargers, especially early on, is that they drafted Quinn Johnston, the wide receiver out of TCU in round one, right? And it was like, all right, Johnson's going to give them exactly what they've always needed on this outside. They need more of a speed threat. A guy can actually get down the field. Well, Johnson's, he's like, up and down is even like too dramatic of a description for

how his season or as preseason has been, I should say. Like, he's been fine. Like, he's had rookie moments, but he's generally been okay. But it sounds out of camp, but you read the beat reports that Josh Palmer, who's long been the wide receiver three for the Chargers, is going to remain the wide receiver three to start the season. Like, that's who they intend them putting out there to begin, which, were you laughing at me?

No, I'm saying if I'm a Chargers fan, I'm going, what the frick? Right. So with, with only like the Jamari Sailor getting set. in at right guard, like that kind of happened during last season experience. This is the same 11 starters from last year, right? If Palmer's out there with Mike Williams and Keenan and Allen, obviously those guys are banged up a lot. Austin Ackler, Gerald Everett, Herbert, and five offensive line.

I mean, this is functionally the same 11 from last year. So there is a, like, there's no confounding variables here. This is Joe Lombardi out, Kellynne Moore in. So for all of those of us who are just banging the Joe Lombardi, get him out of your drum, for two seasons, me. I'm talking about me explicitly me. This is a huge, this test game because it's not like you would say, oh, Quinn Johnson, this, and oh, they changed this in the backfield.

No, it's just a coordinator switch right now. That is one question that, like, I could see us having a conversation in week six where Justin Herbert's average depth of target is still low, and we're going, well, it wasn't just Joe Lombardi. Like, they don't have a lot of speed on the, and I know Quentin Johnson has speed, but again, if they don't view him as far as far as far as offense. Yeah. Going in, then we could say, well, look at the personnel.

I mean, who is making plays downfield for this offense? So that certainly is something to keep an eye on. All right. I have a game as well here. I wonder if this is the other one you were referring to. I can't wait for 49ers at Steelers. These are two, no, not yours. You're not interested.

You're going to go take a nap while I talk about this game. I saw your face there. Steelers are your pet project this year, not for me. Well, these are two fan bases I feel like that are really feeling themselves going into the season. I mean, 49ers fans, you mentioned that you have any questions about Brock Purdy. They're going to be jumping down your throat saying, what are you talking about? You didn't watch this guy last year. Dealer's fans, they probably had the best preseason of any fan base, and they're just spoiled. They're not used to even anyone saying they're going

to have a losing season because they never have a losing season, really since some of them have been alive. Well, one of them's going to be in for a rude awakening on Sunday. I don't know which it's going to be. Will Brock Purdy looked like the same guy who statistically, you know, we can say the film might have shown something a little bit different, but statistically was like a top five quarterback in terms of EPA per pass play success rate. And he had over 250 dropbacks. It's not like we're talking about three or four games. It was a eight game start there. So not the biggest sample size, but also not nothing. Like there's a chance he just runs this offense like Jimmy Garoppolo did and they have a top five offense and they have a nice quarterback on a rookie

contract. I do kind of want to see it before I say that's what's going to happen, but that's where we start looking for answers here. The 49ers defense, you've talked about this. Steve Wilkes comes from the outside, respected, smart veteran defensive coach at the same time. Different. It's not somebody who just was there last year or the year before when the 49ers have had top five defenses and is now being promoted. So that's obviously a little bit of a question mark. And then I go to the Steelers, Ben. I have a question for you. They've had 35 games with Matt Canada as their offensive coordinator. How many times do you think they've had at least 400 yards of offense in those 35 games?

400, you said? Yeah, which is... I don't know why you do this thing. Do you want me to give you a little baseline of like... No. No, okay, you don't want to be able to guess. And then that way, if I'm wildly wrong with no hints, I can just accuse you of putting me in impossible situations.

35 games, 400 yards. You like these questions. I see. I love them. It gets the wheels. spinning, you know, you got that young brain. It's the, it's the betting aspect of it, the probability aspect of it. My initial thought was eight.

Okay. I'm going, I'm going, it feels low, but here's it, I'm going nine. Nine. The answer is zero. That's really bad. That's very concerning. Yeah, I would say, well, it's more concerning for the guy over here who picked the Steelers to make the playoffs.

35 games down. I saw a friend texted me something about this and was like the Steelers have a streak of 20-something games of not being gaining at least 400 yards. And I thought, okay, let me go look this up. And then I looked it up today. And no, no, no, no. It's not a streak of 20 games. It's a streak of 35 games.

Every single game, Matt Canada has been their coordinator. They have gained fewer than 400 yards. Their high is 391 yards. Now, if you're saying, well, Sheila's hard to get 400 yards in an NFL game. I mean, it's kind of hard. It's not that hard. It happens pretty often. It happens. I look this up, and over the last two years, 23% of the time, there have been 266 instances league-wide of an offense gaining at least 400 yards in the last two seasons, and zero of them are from the Pittsburgh Steelers. So I guessed 8 out of 35, so I guess like 16%. So I should have gone lower. I should have gone lower.

It's disappointing. All right. So that is concerning to me. I still like the stealing. I'm still picking them to make the playoffs. I think their defense is going to be fantastic, but I do want to see what does this offense look like? Is Kenny Pickett making the leap? Is their defensive front able to handle all the different guys that the 49ers have there, who they're going to give the ball to,

Debo, Christian McCaffrey, all those guys. So I see two playoff teams. I see two very good head coaches, but I do have questions about both these teams, and I want to start getting some of those answers on Sunday afternoon. Yeah. The improvement for like the Steelers, a lot of it is expected on offense, I should say. A lot of it is just like expected jump, right?

It's like, okay, can you pick it from your one to your two? Jump. George Pickens from year one to your two, jump. Like, Nantajie Harris, maybe not a jump, but like we know Jalen Warren's better now. It's like overall backfield jump because we're going to have the role be a little bit more successful. Have the backfield breakdown, the touches, be a little bit smarter. that stuff's always summer stuff right that's why every every year one player gets better in year two when we're talking in july and august this is where rubber meets road right and the book's not

going to be written on the steers young players after a game against these 49ers but you do ask that question right where you say okay are they going to be ready knock the rust off take those big sophomore jumps again such a talented defense uh the other thing for me about this nineer steelers matchup which uh from a betting perspective i spent a lot of time thinking about the under in this game at 41 and a half. I didn't end up taking it, but both teams that can really pace you down because of the amount of motion that these offenses run, they just use the play clock, right? They're just going to be low, low snaps for game on offense. And then you expect some running game from both. I was thinking a lot about the Steelers offensive line and how it's been

retooled. They bring in Isaac Slamalo at left guard. He joins the same four starters from last year. They're going to start Dan Moore at left tackle and not put the rookie out there, Broderick Jones, just yet. I am interested to see how that decision maps onto a 49ers pass rush, right? That's, that's, that's, that's, that's, all right. We're going to leave that veteran out there that we drafted a first rounder to replace. He's not really a veteran, that young guy. That all sounds well and good, but then you got to play Bosa in week one, who's back now on his extension. You start to wonder, uh, how well is Pickett going to be able to hold up in the pocket. We've got to see if this offensive line is ready for a upfront like the Niners.

Bosa, Armstead. They added, I feel like them adding Javon Hargrave is sort of just a forgotten off-season move. Who cares? We talked about it here. One of the top five interior pass rushers in the NFL and then maybe someone like Drake Jackson on the other side

makes the leap. So yeah, that nothing will surprise me in that game. If you told me one team won by three touchdowns, that would not surprise me. If you told me it came down to the end and it was a low-scoring game,

that would not surprise me either. All right. Next category here, Benjamin. Monday morning storyline. What's something, whether it's, you know, your buddy, your buddies in the football,

hipster, society, the talking heads on TV. It could be anything. I don't care who's talking about this. Someone is going to be talking about what on Monday morning as you look into your crystal ball. Here's the headline. You ready? Yeah. Cincinnati's $275 million man. Firstly, listen, no news breaks on the first drive of opening Thursday of football. That was so stressful for me. That was horrible. I was dialed in.

I was ready to be a live football and the Bengals wrenched me back into offseason football. I forgot how extensions worked. I didn't know what the numbers. It was very disorienting. I could tell that. Well, hold on. I could tell that because I'm watching the game and, you know,

I'm not looking at my phone a lot when I, because when I'm watching a game, I'm like, all right, I want to have my own thoughts. And then I, but I do look down a commercial. And in like seven different modes of communication, there are just messages from Ben's hole. that just have Burrow in all caps. I'm going, did Joe Burrow like, like, sprain his ankle on the way to his coat? Like, why is he just texting Burrow over and over again? I had no idea. And then I looked

and I saw he got, what, $55 million per year and a guarantee over $200 million. Yeah. So, congrats on Joe Burrow for now making Ben and Sheel money. He makes about what we make from this pod. So congratulations to him. Joe Burrow, right, so the overall value is 275. If you go and you look at guarantees, he still's going to come in below the Deshawn Watson guarantee number, as everybody is going to do for quite some time. But he got fairly close to it. He got over 200 guarantees from the initial reported number, though that number might be funny money, right? And it might like the previous non-Dashon high from Lamar Jackson was 135. And so it'd be surprising if we jump from 135 all the way up into the 200s.

I imagine when the actual details get sorted out, that number's going to come in lower. But still, this is going to be the second most total. guarantees and it's going to be the most in terms of average per year. So this is functionally largest contract NFL history, largest quarterback contract. We're just going to ignore the Deshawn Watson guarantees and we're going to do it for the rest of time. The reason that's going to be the headline is because you get Bengals Browns in week one. You get the guy who's got the biggest quarterback contract in the league by APY.

Good point. Up against the guy who's got the biggest quarterback contract in the league in terms of guarantees. And I'm here to tell you, I've seen Joe Burrow play the last few years and he's been a good quarterback. I haven't seen the other guy do it. I haven't seen Deshaun do that as successfully. I have been, I've been thinking, I've been lower on the Browns this offseason than most. And I haven't done much season long fading of the Browns because I think that there's ways this defense works and the running game works. And I think there might be coaching changes. And like, there's just a lot that can go on with them in season. But selectively, especially early in the season when

the power rankings for them are still high, looking for opportunities to fade them. The Bengals here being one and a half point favorite, I think is silly, even if this game is home for the Browns. I think this is going to be a big Joe Burrow game because Jamar Chase and T. Higgins match up very nicely onto the corners of the Cleveland Browns. Greg Wards and Greg Newsom and Denzel Ward are both just smaller players. And Jamar Chase and T. Higgins play above the rim. This is a Jim Schwartz defense going to try to beat you in the pass rush, but it's going to leave its cornerbacks isolated.

And Joe Burrow has shown us, hey, you want to give me a one-on-one and I know it's a one-on-one before the snap, it'll be a long day for you. The thing that beats Burrough is pre-snap to post-snap rotation. It's disguise. The thing that Jim Schwartz does not do is disguised Jack Dittily. I mean, he is going to line up and play defensive coach. So this pass rush might be able to hassle Burrow at points, but Burrow did a really good job last season, getting rid of the ball quickly.

He's been a full practice participant. It seems like the leg is good to go. I think that there's going to be a big game for Burrow through the air, big game for Tina for Jamar. And I think the headline's got to be out of Cincinnati when you pay your boy, and then he immediately beats a division rival who paid their guy. you got to walk it a little bit. You got to show them that you got the goods.

And so Joe Burrow, congrats on the huge contract. And I think a week one win is an order. That's a good one. That's a good contrast. I mean, if you're a Browns fan and you watch that game and Burrow lights it up

and Deshawn Watson looks like he looked like last year, I mean, talk about deflating kind of the balloon in week one for you as a football fan. So yeah, I hadn't thought about that, that those two guys are going up against each other. I actually liked the Browns a little bit in that game. I didn't, you know, this was before.

We just fall on different sides of the Browns, you and I did preseason. Well, I don't, I don't love the Brown. I don't have the Browns making the playoffs. I do think, yeah, you had them at six wins. I think I have an eight or nine wins. I do think their defense is going to be good. And I could envision a scenario here where they're getting after Joe Burrow, who, again, is coming off the calf injury.

And the Browns have at least a nice defensive game. So we'll see what happens there. My Monday morning storyline, Sean Payton still got his fastball. Listen, I don't know how I fell into this Broncos trap. I don't know what happened. I don't know if, like, somebody came into my house and did something to my brain, but all of a sudden, the last two weeks of the preseason, I'm, like, wearing a Terrell Davis jersey or something.

I don't know what happened. I'm just telling everyone that the Broncos are going to make the playoffs. So Broncos host of Raiders. I think Denver's going to play well. I think Russell Wilson's going to play well in this game. I think they're going to look like a professional operation, which they did not look like last year. And I kind of think they're going to take it to the Raiders. They are four-point favorites in this game.

They're playing at home. The Raiders were one of the worst defenses in the NFL last year. They've got this weird Chandler-Jones thing going on, which I honestly have no idea what is even happening there. So it's like hard to even comment on. But just a bizarre situation with Chandler Jones. The Raiders did not really add talent to their defense. You know, they had Marcus Peters at cornerback very late in the offseason there.

Wow. Just throwing your guy, Marcus. Saps right under the bus. Tough, tough, tough love for Marcus Saps. Yeah, I don't think he's going to make the difference in this game. So I think the Broncos are going to have an impressive week one win. I think they're going to create some buzz where people are saying, all right, Sean Payton over Nathaniel Hackett, we see the upgrade right away. Russell Wilson isn't a complete disaster. I think they're going to have a nice win over the Las Vegas Raiders. So that's my Monday morning storyline. Yeah, a little bit later on the show, we're going to pick some games against the spread.

we have a certain number of games we're allowed to pick. I had plus one and that plus one was Broncos minus three and a half against the Raiders. I might just throw it in there still for the official scorekeep, but I might make a last minute adjustment inaudible. But this Raiders team is difficult to trust.

Even now, like, when they're at full health, you know, with Jimmy being there and like, okay, they might look a little bit neater and cleaner because some of their veteran players are established and they're present. Like, I don't know if I like their talent against the Broncos defense. And then, yeah, I think that the Sean Payton boost is going to be a legitimate

one. Also worth noting, uh, you get the Broncos, uh, in the month of September in a home game. You take that against the spread. Uh, it's just a fundamentally good bet. Teams are not yet fully up to speed, right? Players are not yet kind of enter the prime this thing of the season and they're not used to playing at the elevation. And so when you get that mile high air in September, you take that against the spread. So yeah, I'm going to throw Broncos in my in my, in my locks now that now I'm talking myself into it. I'm going to do it. I got to figure who to take out, though. Have you done any physical activity in the mile high air before?

I have not, no. I grew up in like a mountainous area, but nothing like in a mile high. Yeah. Okay. Well, listen, we'll see how big the pod gets. Maybe we'll do, we can do some type of video where we're doing some physical. I would like to test the mile high. I have weak lungs.

You think it's a myth? No, I don't think it's a myth, but I kind of want to feel it for like, it's obviously not a myth. Yeah, no, I know it's not a myth. I'm saying it's a myth. I mean, what do you take me for? All of a sudden, I'm saying, listen. The way you said it, like, we got to go up there and test it for ourselves. Maybe they didn't believe it.

First of all, if my take was the mile high stuff is a myth, I would have led the show with that. Forget Chiefs Lyons. Yeah, that would have been my first thing. I just thought, you know, I do kind of want to feel it for myself one of these days. So I thought, you know, we have a nice bonding trip out there in Denver. I don't really hike. Go see Lindsay? Walk, do something, see Lindsay, and walk around in the market.

High Air. All right. Let's take a break. Ben teased a little, little gambling picks sections of the show. That's coming up next. We'll be right back. All right. We are back on extra point taken. So here's the exercise. Let me try to explain this as easily as possible. We have three categories. One of them is our favorite prop bet of the week. Okay. That's one. We have our favorite long shot of the week. And then we have our locks of the week, three games against the spread that we like the most. We are going to put together a point system with those three categories. We're going to keep track. Actually, you know, I want an expat to keep track.

We don't need the extra work. Come on. Wow. Wow. Yeah. We got listeners out there. You're going to be better with the Google sheets than I am. You can color code it.

You can make it look good. So if there is an enterprising expat listener is. Is that what I say? Expat? I like that. I like that. If you're listening and you're saying, I can easily,

she'll put together a spreadsheet for you. I'm going to be listening to the shows anyway. I can keep track of this and get this to you guys every week just for a little shout out on the show. Hit us up via email. They're in our Twitter profiles and we'll keep track of them all season long

and we'll see who wins. We'll put something on the line. We don't know what we're going to put on the line yet, but we'll figure something out. So let's start with the prop, Benny Souls. I feel like this is your wheelhouse. You have like 4,000 props going. I know you had two already on Thursday night football.

You're off to a good start. I kind of just looked at them and picked something really quick before the show started. So I don't know that I have the best strategy for this. Over the course of the year, we will teach you how to find the good lines. We'll teach you what to look for, what to expect. Yes. I know. I had a good night.

Thursday night football. Yes, thank you for asking, checking in. Sam Lipporte. Appreciate you. Yeah. I early like early last season I spent the entire month of September taking a j. Brown overs and Christian Kirk overs because the new receivers with a passing game that was going to funnel through them was just getting like I think underappreciated then and it was

pretty profitable. I'm here for over 65 and a half yards to Calvin Ridley in week one. Jags are playing jags are playing the Colts. I think that you're going to see this passing offense really get funneled through Ridley who like really is going to have some rust on him like I was I was hesitant at first. This line actually opened below 60 when I got it. I'm still happy with it at 65 and a half. I just think it's too low even for the rust.

I also think it's too low because do you want to play the game where we name Indianapolis Colts cornerbacks? No, I mean, I was just going to say they had the worst, probably the worst, certainly bottom three. While you're driving your car listeners right now, I want you to name who you think the starting duo is. No cheating for the Indianapolis Colts. There's someone named Dallas.

Is Dallas Flowers? Is that one? Is he starting? Dallas Flowers is starting. Starting, along with Daryl, along with Daryl Baker. Kenny Moore is the nickel. A Calvin Riddly ain't lining up over Kenny Moore, I promise. They're putting that brother outside.

And then, yeah, and then you have Juju Brents and Jalen Jones behind them. I mean, like, it's just, they drafted Darius Rush this year and then cut him for this group. It is impossibly young, impossibly under experienced. Isaiah Rogers was expected to be one of the starting guys for the Colts here. He was the young man with the gambling suspension for the Colts this season. They are so, so, so poor right now at outside corn. Don't think they have enough juice in the past rush to really win the past game that way. I think they're going to suffer to wide receiver ones all year.

And Calvin Rilly is that wide receiver one. I think you'll more consistently see him in the high 60s, low 70s when we get about a month into the season here. It's over 65 and a half, Calvin Rilly in week one. Does a guy have to be a certain age for you to call him a young man? You just called Isaiah Rogers a young man. Like I assume, you know, like someone who's 30, you're not calling a young man. I know that. Do they have to just be younger than you?

It depends on his Jue de vivre. It depends on his vigor, his way. No, here's what it was. I was in college covering the draft. And everybody in draft coverage calls the college players kids. And so I was saying like, oh, this kid. And then I realized, like, I was that guy's age. And I was trying to break into my field and be taken seriously.

And I didn't want people to call me a kid. And so I was like, I'm not going to call this guy a kid if I wouldn't like to be called a kid kind of in similar shoes. So I started him young man. And then I love the way that sounding. It makes me sound like I'm 80. And so now I just do it to everybody. All right, well, nice job out of you, young man. I can call you young man.

I like that one. That's a good one. I mean, I think I picked Trevor Lawrence to be my MVP. I actually don't think that Jaguar's defense is very good. So even if that game is a little closer than one might expect, I would think it would be more in the higher scoring area where Calvin really still has a chance to go over that. All right. I was debating between two here. I'll let me tell you the one I almost went with, Ben.

I almost went with Sam Howell over 19 and a half completions, which. is plus 102 because I've watched Jonathan Gannon defense before and I know pretty much anybody can complete passes against that defense specifically with the personnel he has in Arizona. But I was thinking, Sheel, for your first like prop bat on this new formatted show, are you really going Sam Hal over 19 and a half? And so I said, no, I don't think I want to do that. I'm going Kirk Cousins under 265.5 passing yards. I think that's a big number. Yeah. Sleepy.

Oh no. Oh, no. I'm all, you know, this fits our personalities. I'll be picking under every single week. You can pick over it. As a bit, it'd be funny. Yeah. It's much more fun to me to root against something than to root for something. Tell you a little bit about our life choices. The Bucks. I think their defense is going to be pretty good this year. I mean, I think they're still very talented. Even last year, they were 13th in DVOA when it felt like they had all sorts of injuries. Now they're healthier. I think Todd Bowles is still a good. a good defensive coach. I was looking it up. They gave up more than 265.5 passing yards just twice all of last season. And so I'm a little nervous about the game script here and the fact that I don't think the bucks are going to be possessing the ball for long periods of time because I don't love their offense. But at the same time, that Vikings defense has a lot of question marks. So I'm going under on the Kurt Cousins passing yards. What do you think? Should I have gone Sam Howell over completions instead? No, I like Kirk Gunder. Game script-wise, I don't think this is a game he's got to throw the ball for four quarters on.

That's true, too. Yeah, and then the other thing is, like, even last year, like when their passing game was really good, like, Kirk wasn't typically like a 300-yard thrower because they care about actually running the football. And even know Delvin Cook, like, they did that on purpose. They're still going to run it with Madison. They're going to be a balanced. I think it makes sense. If you're wondering, hey, what if you guys just pick some really easy prop bets? No, we have rules in place, all right? We're not, you know, what's the word I'm looking for? You got a better vocabulary than me.

Like an insulting term. We're not cowards. Yeah, we're not, you know, cheating the game, right? We're playing it the way as much to be played. That's right. So we made the rule. What did we say, been minus 1.30 or better? Yeah, minus 1.30 or better.

On Fandul, most props are average juice minus 114. So that gives you the ability to get a prop, it's got a little bit of juice on it. There you go. So if it's minus 135, minus 140, don't be bringing it to the prop of the week. We're not doing that. All right. Next category, this one's going to be fun. Long shot of the week is we're not going to go by point spread.

We're going to go by the number. So plus 150 or higher. Now, I think generally this will equate to what, like a three and a half point underdog or more, basically more than a three point underdog, right? We'll typically be around plus 150, I believe. Yes. Did we say this had to be a team? What else would it be? Oh, it could be like a prop? Yeah, you could do a lot of props with plus money.

Sure, no, that's fine. Yeah, go ahead. You want to do it? As long as it's plus 150 or more you can do it. I was thinking team, but you know what? It's the first time we're doing this. So yeah, I can pick a team. We'll fill it out. Right. You pick a prop. Go ahead. I like Gino over 275 passing yards. So this is 275 plus on Fandle. It's an alternate line, which is plus 168. Gino Smith and the Seattle Seahawks are playing the Los Angeles Rams. We just played let's name Colts Corners. Would you like to play name Rams Corners? I mean, I'm just laughing at you coming into this with the Gino Smith alternate line passing yards. Like you were built for the show. You were built. I mean, this format, no wonder you look so happy over there. You just have these in your pocket on like Monday morning and now you can just trot them out for the Friday show.

Firstly, no dodging the question. That's a compliment. Name the Rams corners. The Rams cornerbacks, I cannot do that. Akello Weatherspoon and Darian Kendrick projected starters. I should have gotten there for you. Secondly, no, I, listen, I know what I'm about. And what I'm about is if I'm going to do a week's work of trying to figure out how the games are going to go,

and I think I'm all right at it, I'm going to try to make that profitable. And I generally am successful doing so, which is a good feeling. My mom doesn't usually find that explanation sufficient, but it's okay. Gino, a potential high passing game for him. This ram secondary, I think, is really, really, really poor. And while I'm a little bit worried about the game script here, meaning that Gino doesn't necessarily have to be as high volume of a passer as he was previously, same thing with like Kirk Cousins and the Buccaneers,

I do think that this Matthew Stafford offense, even without Cooper Cup, has the chance to do enough against the Seattle secondary. Devon, Wetherspoon's still absent, to keep this game close to force the Seahawks to have to play it long term. The other thing that you like Gino for 275 passing yards, Gino shoots, right? Gino takes shots. He likes to throw the football down the field. And so if we're hitting a 300 plus yard passing game, usually we're hitting a game that's got multiple explosives in it. Gino is an explosives passer, right?

And so you're going to get big D.K. Metcalf catch run, big Tyler Lockheed catch run. You're going to be ripping off 30 plus yard gains. And that's how you get these high chunk numbers, like getting those big explosives in the game. That tends to be Gino's way. So for a long shot, I do like the ability of Gino and the new look Seattle offense. Jackson-Smith and Jigba out there, too, to just announce that, hey, this passing game is for real. We're doing this again in year two with the big performance. So I actually have this game also for my long shot of the week.

It was hard because when I was just looking at the teams, I'm going, which of these teams that are more than three-point favorites do I really think can win the game? And it came down to two, and it was the Panthers Falcons game. I would have done so much that you were taking the Panthers for this. I thought for sure you were. If they did not have seven wide receivers on the injury report of already the worst wide receiver room in the entire league, then I would have really thought about taking the Panthers. But looking at that injury report, I couldn't do it. So I'm taking the Rams. I think they have a shot to win this game. I mean, you just mentioned it. The Seahawks are not at full strength in their secondary. The Rams, I think the whole season are going to be a bad team. But right now, they still

have Matthew Stafford healthy. They still have Aaron Donald healthy. They don't have a lot other than those two guys, but they played the Seahawks pretty tough last year. I mean, if you look at it, they played the Seahawks to a 27-23 loss in week 13. That was with John Wolford, 2-2 Atwell, and no Aaron Donald. And then remember in week 18 with Baker, Mayfield and Van Jefferson, that was an overtime game. With the Seahawks have the playoffs on the line, and it was a 1916 overtime game. So I think McVeigh played them well last year. And so I don't know how confident I feel about this. You could probably hear

it in my voice that I'm not exactly yelling. The Rams are winning this game, baby. It's starting the season. One nothing, but hey, it's long shot of the week. So I'm going to go with them for my pick here. The Seahawks and the Rams do legitimately never play regular games. Do you remember that it was the Let Russ Cook era where he was like perfect? And then they ran to the

Rams offense. Excuse me, the Rams defense just lost his mind. Now is the beginning of the end. These two teams play each other very weird. This used to be the game where Johnny Hecker would have a fake punt every single time. They'd have two fake punts a year and they were just against the Seahawks. My first game covering the Seahawks in 2015 in St. Louis at the Edward Jones Dome, Nick Foles throws for like 350 yards. Yes! And the Rams beat the Seahawks. It was a great Seahawks team. I think they finished the season first in DVOA. But yes, they lost that first game of the season

to the then St. Louis Rams. So yeah, I agree with you. All right. That's the long shot of the week. Now let's get to our locks of the week. Three games against the spread that we like. You can find all of my picks against the spread at the ringer.com, but this is a tougher exercise for me. I'm a volume shooter, Ben. You know, I like, I'm that guy. He like, no, he needs 15 carries this game. You're not going to see what shield has from five carries. He needs to get warmed up. You need to keep feeding him. Same thing. you know, in NBA, he can't just get six shots. Like, he needs 18, 19 shots.

That's when you're going to see him fill it up a little bit. So this is a tougher exercise for me, but you know what? I'm going to power through and I came up with three games here. So give me your first game, your first lock of the week here. What do you got? Real quick, just because Shield is a humble guy. Shield picks every single game against the spread. And I think for the last four seasons has been above 50% or something like that,

picking every single game, which is it a obnoxiously difficult thing to do. And it's a huge testament to the fact that you're good at this. You're not just a volume shooter. You can just throw, like you said, throw some darts. And if they hit, you look like a genius and Andy Reid and you win the Super Bowl. But sometimes they don't hit. So this could be the year that they don't hit. So we'll say.

I'm all in one this year. I picked the Chiefs to cover on Thursday night. I haven't won a game yet. I had, I had Lions plus six from right before the Kelsey injury. And the lion got all the way to three and a half. And I was like, I have to get out of this, right? Like, I have to take the middle. I have to take the ARB and then the Lions freaking won the game.

Whatever. Have you explained to the scoring, by the way, to the enterprising young man? No, should we do that now? Should we explain this? I feel like you have to. Okay. They've been recording this. They have no idea how it works.

I wasn't sure. Hopefully you haven't started your spreadsheets yet, whoever is actually going to do the work here. So here's what we're going to do. The locks of the week, these are just against the spread. These are each worth one point. So you get two right. you get two points for the week. It's very simple. Same thing for the prop bet of the week. That's also worth

one point. So if you go two and one on the picks and then you get your prop bet right, guess what? You get three points. Now, the long shot is where you can, it is like the money ball in the three point contest during AllStar weekend. That's going to be worth three because that's, that's a plus 150 or higher wager. So you could stink on, you know, you could go 0 for three on your picks. You could miss your prop. But if you hit the long shot, you're getting three points for the week. So the total number of points that you could win in any given week would be seven. That would be if you get all your picks against the spread right, if you get your prop bet right, that's four. And then if you get your long shot right, that's seven. So the max you can get in any single week is seven. Hopefully that's not too confusing. We thought it was

like simple and straightforward enough where we'd be able to track it and explain it. Everything is worth one point, except for the long shot which is worth three points, is extremely straightforward. If it's confusing, that's not good. That's on you guys. That's not on us. Although we do talk fast. People say how many, you know, like these guys, like, were they hopped up on coffee? Every episode, they talk fast.

No one can listen to you, Ben, on like 1.75 speed. I've heard that before. But again, that's on them. NMP. It's my great joy. Not my problem. Yeah. If you are a listener who wants to make my day.

tweet at me or email me and tell me. I usually listen to my pods at 1.5, but for you, I have to turn it down to 1.2. I will be riding that high for hours. I take that as a badge of honor. I still believe the producer slow me down. Cliffs on the show right now.

He's getting notes from Arjuna being like, hey, make sure you slow Ben's audio down again. He can't talk that fast. I know you guys do it. Anyway, my three locks this week. Like I said, I'm doing Broncos minus three and a half.

A home game mile high in September. Really don't like the Raiders. I think I'm putting that in there. I knocked the bench. singles out to put that one in. Okay, now I'm going to have Fanduil up during this because we have to make sure we have the most up-to-date

lines, okay? So you can go ahead and say... And there's nowhere better to get up-to-date lines than Fandle. America's number one's of course book. That's right. My second lock of the week is Jaguars minus four and a half against the Colts. I am generally bullish on Anthony Richardson. I am

generally bearish on the rest of the Colts and I am the least bullish, the least excited for Anthony Richardson. in week one. He's played at the preseason. They've tried to get in his sea legs under him. But this is going to be rocky and rough. This is going to be a slow gaining process.

Also worth noting the Jaguars have the Colts number, and they've had it for a bit, baby, Duval. So Jaguars minus four and a half, I like. And then my last one, this is the other game I mentioned at the top. I was so interested in Chargers, Dolphins, but there's a second game that really, really intrigues me. That's Packers Bears. There's so much I want to know about how the Packers are going to work this year.

That's our team, obviously. that's the extra point taking team of the season. But then also the Bears with Justin Fields and with the Bears have such a nice rise to competency on their roster. Tremaine Evans and T.J. Edwards and Nate Davis and Yannick and Gokway and DJ Moore. Like let's just get adults in the building. Let's not have this like embarrassing roster we had these last few years. It could be so nicely functional, which means that the quarterback has to deliver. It means that the flashes and the excitement that we've had from the quarterback have to move into something. Just Fields has to take a step forward into consistency.

to reliably producing on offense and not putting his team in bad situations with sacks and with turnovers with injuries. And so I have a lot of questions about the Packers. I have a lot of questions about the Bears. And I have a one and a half point line

with the Packers on the road. I do think they're overall the better roster and I do like what I've seen out of Jordan Love. And so Packers plus one and a half is a line that I like for this game. I think we're putting a little bit too much face than a Bears team that is still going to be figuring stuff out

and also has a pretty major injury in Tevin Jenkins. They're going to struggle in the interior against this Packers who, Kenny Clark, I think, is in line for a good day. I like the Packers plus one and a half. So those were all signs that I had in my column, so I'm not going to argue any of them with you. Yeah, those were all the sides that I had there. You've got the Broncos covering.

You've got the Jaguars covering. And you've got the Packers as dogs going to Chicago. So those are your three picks. I am going with the Pittsburgh Steelers plus two and a half against the Niners. Mike Tomlin as a home underdog, Ben, 13, 4, and 3 against the spread. So like I said earlier, nothing would surprise me. If you're a Niners fan and you're tweeting me at like half time of this game when the Niners are up, 21-0, and you're saying, She'll, you know, what are you talking about?

That was a terrible pick. That would not surprise me, but you know what? I'm going to go with the Steelers anyway and hope for kind of a low-scoring game that neither they can win or keep close. All right. Next one, I'm going with another dog. I'm actually going with three dogs here. I like the dogs early in the season.

I like the dogs. I had two favorites in mine, and I felt squirrelly about it. I didn't like that. But I do like, yeah, I do like both those teams that you had as favorites. I'm going Titans.

We haven't talked about this game. Plus three at New Orleans. Again, Vrable and Tomlin, you're probably going to hear me all season long. When those guys are underdogs, I'm going to take them often

and I think I'll end up on top by the end of this season. So I like that Titans front. I think they're, They can pressure Derek Carr. We all know Derek Carr under pressure is a different guy than Derek Carr with a clean pocket. The Titans still have Tannahill. They still have Derek Henry.

Supporting cast is okay. We'll see about that offensive line. Let's not talk about that. We don't need to talk about that. But Vrabel versus Dennis Allen to me is like one of the bigger coaching mismatches really on the docket here in week one. Dennis Allen I have not been impressed with has won what, 28% of his games. And Mike Vrable like goes on the road. with Joshua Dobbs or Malik Willis

and plays the Chiefs to overtime or whatever it was last season. So I've got the Titans plus three. And then my last one, I swear I'm not just pandering to the Sollack family still with these days. But I like the Jets plus two and a half against the bills on Monday night.

Not getting the hook, not getting three, bold man. That'll be the game we talk about on Monday night's extra point taken. But you look at it last year, the Jets held the bills to 17 points and 20 points in their two meetings last year. You have the same defensive coordinator for the Jets.

You have the same offensive coordinator for the bill. So I think there's some scheme stuff there working in the Jets favor. And it could just come down to when we've seen this Bills team struggle really in the last three years, my like number one note every time is, ooh, that offensive line. Like Josh Allen was running for his life. And this game has that type of recipe theoretically where that Jets front could really dominate. and get after Josh Allen and force him into some turnover. So I actually think the Jets win the game outright

and sends their fan base into a complete frenzy. Bill's fans, don't get mad at me. I still have you winning the division there. I've been supporting you and telling people to calm down that you're not cooked. Your window is not closed, but for this one game, I like the Jets. So I've got Jets, Titans, and Steelers, three dogs for my two home dogs as well with the Jets and the Steelers

among my repick. Two home dogs on week one. You're a smarter player of the numbers than I am. I'm on, I'm on these favorites over three and a half, over three. It's dangerous stuff. Dangerous stuff's going to be embarrassing.

Yeah, the Bills one is, the Bills Jets is the most surprising to me. I agree that the Jets defense played well against the Bills last season, but if memory serves, that was the Josh Allen injury game and then a game after the Josh Allen injury game, I think that Allen has the ability

to be a lot more successful against that style of defense and that team when he's at full strength. And I just don't think this Jets offense is going to come off the ground in week one. Like, woo! That to me, that, that, like with a new quarterback is very particular. Young receiver, Alan Lazzard comes in,

Randall Cobb, and Mekyll Harman wasn't as good as they expected, and Dwayne Brown was limited in practice, and McIbackton was limited in practice. And Breeze Hall, he was, he's practicing, but we don't know how much we're going to play, and sort of played Dalvin Cook, who's also new Nate Hackett, who I don't necessarily think is great at this.

That just feels like a situation where it's going to take a little bit for that offense to coales. Let me be clear. I have no confidence in any picks. That's actually why I like doing all the games because I'm like, you have to do all the games. You don't have a choice. You can't just pick six. You can't just pick three. You have to do all of them. So hopefully, you know, it'll end up on the right side by the end of the season. But those are my picks. Sorry, we're going to end every show with, I don't know how we phrase this, a nonsense prediction, just something. we think is going to happen this weekend that we haven't gotten to yet, that we want to be on the record with. It could be something totally ridiculous. It could be something that has to do

with the player, whatever we want. Ben, what do you have for that to finish the show? I have it as like anything but game prediction. Do you have game predictions? Then you have anything, but besides what we just did, it has to be something that's not that. And for me, it's Nick Bosa, two sacks. Nick Bosa, we have the highest paid player now in the history in Joe Burrell. We have the highest played defense. player in the history of Nick Bosa, making $34 million per year. So almost making Sheel and Ben money. Congratulations to Nick Bosa. He's making Jared Gough money right now. So if you watch that golf performance on Thursday night, you're like, Nick Bosa is about as good as

that player. Bosa comes in for San Francisco. They say, Kyle, Shannon, you just signed Bosa, he's been out for all of training camp. He's going to play week one. And Kyle Shannon goes, unless he's got a beer belly, like, it's Nick Bosa. We're playing the guy. And as I brought up. The Steelers left tackle situation is something that I think is worth keeping an eye on. Bosa obviously rushes off the left side of the line more consistent than he does off the right side, but the right tackler chooks a quarterfore. It's not like it's Lane Johnson out there. The tackle situation is a weak point for the Steelers. Kenny Pickett has good mobility as a quarterback. He doesn't have great mobility as a quarterback. And Nick Bost has just got the big contract.

I think the back with my buddies, back playing football, happy to be wearing Niners colors, making 34 million boost is a real thing. So I think double-eses. two sacks for Nick Bosa, a nice healthy start for the repeat defensive player of the year campaign. Fresh legs, like we discussed in the Brian Burs thing. Training camp sucks. Who wants to do training camp? It looks terrible. You've watched that. Why would you ever want to do that? Yeah, just take it off and then you show up in week one. You know how to play football. You're Nick Bosa. You'll have a big game. I could see that. All right. My prediction here, Ben, this is the most confident I am in any of the predictions or picks that I've made during the show. Justin Herbert will throw a pass.

that travels at least 40 yards in the air on one of the Chargers' first three plays. Okay, that is going to happen. Brandon Steeley, I don't know this for a fact. I sense that he could be very online. He was blogging. Brandon said he was a blog boy.

He was writing on Coach Blog Spot like six years ago. All right, he is absolutely online. There you go. He's online. I think they're attuned to the criticism. They're like, you know what? Even if we lose the game,

let's make sure that average depth of target is looking pretty good for Justin Herbert. I do not want to hear that stat again this year now that we've made an offensive coordinator change. So I think they've talked about it. They come out. They send a message. They say, Justin, I don't care what the coverage is on this play. Throw the ball pretty much as far as you can.

Don't turn it over. If it goes incomplete, that's okay. We need this as a franchise. We need this as an organization. So I think that's going to happen on one of their first three plays. I can't wait for the next-gen stat tweet. Justin Herbert is only the third quarterback in NFL. history to throw ball 29 miles per hour and it travels 70 yards and you just retweet it immediately

be like, who. Yes, I too. I'm looking for it. It would be very funny if there was like no wide receiver anywhere in the vicinity and he just launched. Just overthrows Gerald Everett by a mile. The announcers are all confused. Not sure who he was targeting with that one. Well, I can tell you exactly what he's doing. Announcers, listen, the extra point taken. All right. How many emails, How many people do you think we're going to get applying for this unpaid internship to keep track of the shield and Ben? As someone who, okay, listen, if you want to go start your spreadsheet, start your spreadsheet, please, and thank you. As someone who cares very deeply, very greatly about organized spreadsheets and color-coded spreadsheets and automatic, you know, that calculates out the wins and losses and keeps track of everything, show me your spreadsheets. And I will ordain whose spreadsheet I find most pleasing.

And I think we'll get one total person and they will win. There you go. Well, I like this. See, this is when you're a veteran like me. I just handed off work to you. You just said email me because you're the spreadsheet expert. So I like that. Email Ben, send him your spreadsheet and he will pick one winner. And we appreciate everyone who applies. Listen, I'll have work to hand off throughout the season. I can always find work for you to do. Don't worry about that. But we want one person who's really committed to listening to these every week. And you know, you can go above and beyond if you want and really impress Ben with your. spreadsheet skills. All right. We're going to get zero people and we're going to have to like, you know, I'm going to have to share a cool sheet with you on like Monday. We got interns at the ringer, right? That's what that's what interns are for, I think? I don't, I think that would be a terrible use of our very talented interns to do that. But we'll find someone to do it. All right. This was a fun first Friday show. We'll improve. We'll get better. We'll figure it out. You'll understand the scoring system. It's not that complicated. You can say in one sentence.

You got to stop wondering about the scoring system, man. There you go. You can say it in one. See, I'm more worried about people being confused because I'm an old man. Ben thinks you can all handle it. That's good. Do you, we have one more order of business. Did you get a package for me this week? Oh, we do. I did. I wasn't sure if I was supposed to wear it for this show. If I was supposed to wait, put it on. I just got it today. Do you want me to go put it on? I got it a couple of days ago. I hadn't opened it. I wanted to open it. Oh, I didn't know I wasn't supposed to open it yet. That's okay. I was worried that you were, well, firstly, it's branded. And so I thought you were just, you were just, you were just, you were just. just going to know what it was, like, no matter what. Yeah.

But for the official extra point taking, team of the season. I didn't think about this with headphones. This is a bad idea. I have over-the-year headphones. It doesn't work well for this. The Green Bay Packers, baby. Here we go. The Green Bay Packers.

Solac mysteriously told me, look for a package that I'm sending you. You wouldn't give me any other details. I'm like, I don't know what's going on here. I opened it earlier today. My daughter loved it. She put it on. I put it on. There you go.

Packers plus 1.5 against the Bears. Get off to a good sir. It is shocking to me. That people wear this seriously and feel okay with it. It's a little heavier than I thought. It's a little heavier. And they advertised it on the site. They were like, okay, so you have the cheese head.

And then it's from the Packers Pro Shop. And then also, there's like different cutouts in it. For you to put like dip and stuff, they said. They were like, you use like a serving tray, like put a bowl in the middle, little bowls in the side. Like this was on my head. No. Green Bay folks, what are we doing from a sanitation perspective?

Anyway, thank you. This is for us this year. Thank you for sending that. It was a good idea. I will wear it proudly. Listen, here's what I'll do. Anytime I pick the Packers in one of these things, I'm going to have this bad boy right here.

And I'm putting on the cheesehead before I make the pick. Go Pack. Go. Go, Pac, go. There you go. All right. Thank you to Solak for the cheesehead. Thank you to the fine people of Wisconsin. Thank you to Cliff Augustine for producing additional production supervision by

Connor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgo-Paul. I'm telling you, very heavy. I'm so sweaty. We're going to watch the games this weekend. We're going to watch Monday night football. And guess what? We're going to be back after Monday night football with another addition of extra point taken. Looking forward to that one.

All right. Everyone enjoy the games this weekend. and we will talk to you on Monday night. Must be 21 plus and present in select states. Fandul is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC. Gambling problem. Call 1-800 gambler or visit fandul.com slash RG

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