The Ringer NFL Show - The Most Important Stats to Know for the 2020 Season | The Ringer NFL Show

Episode Date: July 9, 2020

Kevin is joined by The Ringer's Danny Kelly and The Athletic’s Sheil Kapadia to break down the stats you should know heading into the 2020 season. They talk about the Patriots defense being overrated, Kyler Murray’s looming breakout season, and the underrated Colts. Host: Kevin Clark Guest: Danny Kelly and Sheil Kapadia Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It's the Ringer NFL show, part of the Ringer Podcast Network. I am Kevin Clark, joined today by Ringer staff writer Danny. Danny, how are you? I'm doing excellent, man. How are you doing? I'm doing great, and the athletic show Kapadde. Schill, how are you? I'm good.

I always feel like an old man when I'm on. I feel like it takes me 60 seconds to figure out the headphones and microphone, but I'm here. I can hear you, and presumably you can hear me. You're going through what everybody in America is going through it right now, which is just total confusion on Zoom. You have no idea when your mic is muted or when it was. works. And I think that that's relatable for everybody. Speaking of relatable for everybody, we don't know what's going to happen with the NFL

season. And that includes, by the way, everybody who works in the NFL or plays in the NFL, they also have no idea what's going to go on in the NFL. But as of now, the season is supposed to start, the training camps are supposed to start in about 18 days. And because of that, we want to keep preview in the season. What I wanted to do today is something I think is going to be really interesting for everybody. It's essentially we're going to come up with three things each that someone who is into the NFL needs to know about the 2020 NFL season. What I mean by that is just a nugget or a piece of information that outlines a point

we're trying to make or a point that people need to know about this NFL season. Call it the show and tell episode. Call it the Nugget episode. Call it vast oceans of information, whatever it is, we're going to have. have it. So we're just going to outline what you need to know about the NFL season right now. We will start with you, Sheila Capadia, your number one nugget. All right, Nugget one, I am going to go with the team that was in the news recently and the New England Patriots. However, I'm going to go to their defensive side of the ball.

You know, I feel like everyone just assumes that this was an amazing defense last year. They're going to come back. Their defense is going to be great. Their favorites in the AFC East again, with Cam Newton. But my nugget is this. Prior to last year, the Patriots finished outside the top 10 in defensive DVOA, the football outsider's metric, in 13 straight seasons. 13 straight seasons. So there's this thought that, you know, they're always good on defense. They've got Bill Belichick. The defense has been solid over the years. And certainly, you know, if you're looking at a one week, a game plan, they're capable of doing that for many years. However, if you look at the the entire Tom Brady run, I mean, the offense was carrying them, I felt like, year after year

after year. And really, the statistics really prove that. So if you look at some of their stats from last year, I mean, they were first in red zone efficiency. They were first in turnovers. They were first in short yardage. Like, these are a lot of things that I think are tough to replicate year in and year out. We know statistically that offense is kind of stickier year over year than defense. And so I'm coming in with a hot take that, you know, I think it's going to be a good defense, but I think we're going way overboard, assuming this is going to be like the best defense in the league once again.

What you're saying is Bill Belichick is trash, and I think that we can unpack that. So I think that, so first of all, everyone knows what the Stevens did in the first half of last year. Over the first eight games of the year, they did not allow more than 14 points. They shut out opponents twice.

They were unbelievable. However, they were going against a Steelers team that was obviously on its way to a terrible, first half of the season. The Dolphins, the Jets, the Bills, the Washington football team, the Giants, the Jets, and the Browns. Week 9 started the Baltimore Ravens putting 37 points on them, and then a little bit

of regression. The Texans, Deshaun Watson put up 28. The Dolphins ended up, obviously, famously putting 27 on them. Shield, let me ask you a question. How good does this defense need to be for them to be the AFC East champion this year if we have sort of a normal offense, if Cam Newton, let's say Cam Newton doesn't like the world on fire, but he's solid. Where does this defense need to rank in your mind for them to be able to eclipse, I would assume the bills as AFC East Champion? I would say they probably need to have like a top

five to seven defense. I mean, I'm not as high on this offense as a lot of people are just with the Cam Newton edition. I think they have a lot of hurdles there. I do not. I do not. I do not. I, like their supporting cast at all. I think we've overlooked that they lose their offensive line coach who every year, you know, everyone's talking about Dante Scarnacia and he's this magician. Well, they don't have him anymore. They don't have the quarterback, the same quarterback, obviously, and Tom Brady doing the stuff pre-snap. So I feel like they need to certainly be in that kind of five, you know, top five, top seven range to win the AFC East, which they can be. I'm not saying they're going to, you know, totally fall out of that. They obviously have a good system.

play a lot of man coverage. They return most of their defensive backs. I'm just saying, you know, slow down a little bit that they're going to be this great defense and that the offense isn't going to have to do anything, I guess, is my point. Danny Kelly, Patriots defense. I think they're going to have to scheme up a lot of pressure. I mean, they're missing. So from last year, Michael Bennett's gone.

Jamie Collins is gone. Kyle Van Nua is gone. You know, they're going to be relying on some young guys, I think, to kind of generate some pressure. they drafted a guy in the second round Josh Ushay who is really, really interesting, but he's kind of a hybrid player. Chase Winovich might have to kind of come out of nowhere. They've got some young guys, you know, Dietrich Wise,

Derek Rivers, some of these guys, I think that they're going to have to step up big time for them. And I think she'll make some great points. Then, you know, defense isn't sticky. And going back to last year, I definitely remember, you know, they were facing a lot of really bad quarterbacks. And there was sort of this, a lot of people were giving them this caveat. I think they were a very good defense, but a lot of people were like, you know, look at the, look at the quarterbacks they were playing.

And so there's a lot of variables that go into defense. And that's why I think it's not very sticky going year to year because you're just facing different quarterbacks. You're facing different offenses. So much revolves around the quarterback position that, you know, I could see this defense regressing, certainly. You know, the Shield's point about all those, those statistics like short yardage turnovers, Those are all very kind of variable year to year. So it's going to be very interesting to see how that all kind of pans out. I do think it helps to have Cam Newton, though, kind of like balance things out.

I think that will, you know, they could, they could regress on defense and still be competitive just because Cam Newton could raise the, raise the tides on offense. So I want to push back on one thing. So obviously you said the defense has been outside of the elite of the elite for, what, 13 years before last year. And I think that the lesson of the Patriots is every year they build a new team. That's the reason that Bill Belichick is able to move on from a stake so quickly. He just looks at the season and says,

even though he plays the long game with the salary cap and draft picks and all that stuff, really what he's doing is trying to win that year and carving everything towards that season and knowing what personnel he needs. That's why he values flexibility and all that stuff. isn't being just good enough to win part of the Patriots plan? You know, like, I just, I think that the, I know that this might seem strange to say, but like having an average or above average defense, if that's all they needed, they're okay with Robin Peter to pay Paul, all that stuff.

They've gone certain seasons where they've been contenders with bad cornerbacks over the past 20 years or bad linebackers or bad pass rush or bad receiving core, whatever it is. And I kind of feel like Bill Belichick's ability to borrow from one side of the ball and put resources to the other or one position group to the other is part of what makes Bill Belichick a great roster manager. I've written about this a million times. And they've been able to do just enough to win at all times. And so I'm not necessarily concerned with where the defense ranks. I'm more concerned about their ability to overcome their deficiencies like they have over the past 20 years because quite frankly they don't have Tom Brady and they don't have

the roster that they they have had in previous years. And so what I'm intrigued to see is if Bill Belichick can carry over that roster magic and the ability to overcome problems without the best quarterback in history. Bill Belichick is the greatest coach in the history of the sport. No, I would, there's no one I'd rather have on a per play basis, a per drive basis, per game basis, a per season basis, a per career basis than Bill Belichick. But I'm intrigued to see what it looks like when they not only have a question market quarterback, even though I think Cam Newton is a phenomenal signing, but a overall roster question. I think it's interesting.

Danny, where are you pegging the Patriots right now? All of things consider, we've talked about them a number of times as contenders, obviously probably on that second tier behind the Chiefs and the Ravens. But when you think about them now two weeks after the Cam Newton signing, where do you peg them? Yeah, I think they could, I think they can be a playoff team. I think that, especially with kind of the expanded playoffs this year, maybe they're not going to be the dominant force in the division that they've been the last 20 years, essentially. But I certainly think that, you know, this team is now constructed to give the bills a run for their money,

especially with, you know, now that Cam Newton's understanding. I was, I was basically out on the Patriots before. How funny is it, by the way, that the greatest dynasty in the history of football is now, quote, ready to give the bills a run for their money. Like, that's how quick things have flipped, where it's like, wow, the New England Patriots are ready to give it a go against the Buffalo bills. Finally, yeah.

Yeah. No, so I do think that they are certainly a contender in that division. And, you know, I don't think before the Cam Newton, before the Cam Newton signing, I was kind of out on them, you know, go back a couple episodes. You put them in Tier 3. Yeah. I think I put them, yeah, yeah, yeah. I did. They need like a lot of things to go right essentially for them to go.

Yeah, but that's the same argument I made 30 seconds ago. It's just they, they're going to need above average or even higher production from positions we're not counting on this year in order for them to be really good. Yeah. Because they don't have the same mechanisms to overcome mistakes that they've had in the past. So yeah, I mean, that's that's where I'm at. Shield, do you have them as a playoff team currently? I think they'll be in the mix. I haven't gone and listed my playoff teams.

I am more skeptical of them, I would say, than most people. I mean, you look at the guys, Cam Newton's going to be throwing to. I mean, Julian Edelman, 34, Mohamed Sunou coming off injury. Maybe he'll be better. I think people assume Nikiel Harry will all of a sudden make this big leap. I am not convinced to that. I mentioned the thing with the offensive line. And I know people have made the point.

Cam Newton has been good with sort of bad receiving course before. But, I mean, this isn't going to be 2015. Cam Newton, you know, I feel like you're hoping for maybe like the quarterback who's maybe like the 12th to 15th best quarter. I don't know. I'm just throwing numbers out there. But you know what I mean? Like you're hoping that he gives you competence with this supporting cast. But I think if the defense regresses a little bit and that supporting cast is not very good, I could, I could certainly see them missing the playoffs. That would not surprise me. But everything you said about Belichick would make me probably when push comes to shove. I might get nervous and just pick them to make the

playoffs because you're right. I mean, on a on a week to week basis, he's going to give his team an edge in terms of game planning matchups, all those different types of things. So it's hard to pick against them, but I probably am less confident in them, I would say, than most people. I'm picking them and make the playoffs. I'm picking them to make the playoffs until they, if they start, if they start 0 and 9, I'm just going to be like that. I like them. I like that. I like 7 and 9 for that last wild card spot. All right, Danny Kelly, piece of information number one. Yeah, sticking with DVOA, the Steelers offense, this isn't necessarily a really, really, you know, obscure stat or anything but that. The Steelers offense finished 32nd, dead last and offensive DVOA last year. Kind of opposed to the defense, offense tends to be more sicky year over year. And if you go back the last four years with Big Ben under center primarily, obviously he's missed a few games here and there. But 2018, they were sixth, 2017, they were third, 26. 17th, 2015 third. So this is, I think, still a top 10 offense, you know, in terms of efficiency and probably

volume, potentially with Rothsberger back under center. I think obviously there's a huge question of his health and if he can stay on the field, if that elbow is, you know, fully back to where it was before the injury. But I think the Steelers are, I don't want to say people are kind of sleeping on the Steelers necessarily because they've been so good for so long. but it feels like people aren't really that excited about what the Steelers can be. I think the Steelers could be really dominant if their offense gets back to where it was because that defense took a huge jump last year.

Obviously was the big reason that they went eight and eight, the reason they went eight and eight, really. And getting Rothberger back, I think could be huge for them. Going back to 2018, he led the NFL in attempts, completions, passing yards, and through 34 touchdowns, which was the fifth most. Antonio Brown's gone, which will be. be a factor, but you're getting Juju Smith-Schuster back. Deonti Johnson seems

like he's an ascending star, potentially. James Washington actually finished really strong last season two. Chase Claypool in the second round they got, and then their tight end group is pretty underrated. Advanced McDonald and Eric Ebron. Ebron is kind of the butt of a lot of jokes, but you know, that... He shouldn't

be. He's really improved over the course of his career. I think every time, like, there's... He became a Twitter meme early on. even when he says something on Twitter that's either serious or good, people in the replies are always like, can't catch it, bro. And it's like,

pay attention, watch the games. That's all. Like, sometimes these guys get narratives around them and they can't get off. Like, there's a reason Eric Green's still in the league. That's all I say.

So I think that this offense has a chance to really kind of pick up where they left off in 2018 and it would be a top 10, potentially top five offense, at least per efficiency. And that could be really huge for a team that whose defense is also, you know, ascending. So I'm very, very intrigued to see what the Steelers can do this year. And if they're going to be sort of one of these teams that kind of comes out of no, like quote, comes out of nowhere as one of the most dominant teams in the league.

I agree with that. I think they are a high ceiling team. You know, when you look at like the contender, what, what, you know, if you want to say seven, eight teams can actually win the Super Bowl this year. I would put them in the mix. I also think they're a high variance team. I mean, one of the biggest head scratchers of the offseason is that they did nothing at their backup quarterback situation. I mean, I do not get that at all, how they are going into this season with Mason Rudolph, who I think ranked like 30th out of 30 in QBR. I mean, anyone who watched the games, I don't need to give you fancy stats for this. Mason Rudolph and Doug Hodges are not going to be able to carry you. And you're right. Their defense was fantastic last year. But this

just looked to me like a team where, yeah, you come back with Ben Rathosberger, you have a Super Bowl ceiling, add a good backup quarterback. I mean, if he goes down, He's old. He's injured. No one's going to be surprised if he goes down with an injury. I just can't believe that they did not make a move there. And I feel like they would be in such better shape to withstand, even if he misses like six games or something, if they added somebody else rather than just relying on the defense

to be the best defense in the league. A lot of times the mark of a great player is if an alien came down to Earth and you had to explain the sport to them, you would show them that person and then the alien would say, oh, I get it, right? The exact opposite of that is if you wanted to show them a bad player with the eye test, you could show them the Steelers backup quarterback stuff last year. I mean, like, as you said, we don't need fancy stats.

We don't need to look at PFF or DVA way here. That just looked bad. It just looked real bad. I thought you were going to say that, you know, then you show him Ben Rathelsberger playing really well and they're really confused about. Yeah, they're like, what? Huh? This guy is the, is a really, is a Hall of Fame.

quarterback wait what um yeah no i get it i think that a lot of the steelers expectations danny to go back to your earlier point i think that they are confused a bit because number one they looked bad for stretches last year and i think people forget sometimes how good ben rothsburgh can be in that offense um and and there's there's a lot that goes into that but then beyond that i just think the ravens are expected to be and will be such a juggernaut that any team that's playing for second place in their division is automatically dinged a little bit in the conversation. I think that they're absolutely a playoff contender. I think if there's, if there are breaks, they could be a divisional contender. I just think I don't see anybody catching the Ravens.

Do either of you two see that competition is closer than I do? I think if Rafflesberger's healthy, I mean, it wouldn't be the craziest thing in the world for them to win the division. I'm not predicting it. I think the Ravens are, you know, definitely heavy favorites, but I mean, I don't know that the, I probably think maybe the gap is a little bit smaller than you do if, uh, if the quarterback's healthy. Yeah, I'm kind of in that same, I'm in that same boat. I think that I just think the Ravens are like a 14 win team. Yeah. 14, maybe 15. And then the Steelers are more like 11. That's what, when I say the gap is big, I don't mean that we're looking at, you know, 10 wins versus six wins here. I, I, I just mean both these teams are,

good, but the Ravens are quite good. Yeah, I think I agree with that, too. You know, I would say, like, the, the, the Sears are like 12-win team in my mind and then agree. The Ravens are like a 14-win team if everything kind of goes right. I do think you have to kind of bake in a little bit of regression, though, with the Ravens, because it's just really, really hard to do, to carry over that incredible, incredible efficiency they had last year, you know, Lamar Jackson, I think.

led the NFL in touchdown rate as a passer, and that's likely to go down. You know, we've seen teams sort of not figure out offenses from year to year, but, you know, I do think you have to expect a little bit of offensive regression from Lamar Jackson. So I don't know, we'll see. But I still think they're easily the favorites in the division the Ravens are. I think this. The Lamar thing, so ESPN had their poll of the top 10 quarterbacks in the NFL came out this week, and Lamar was six.

and there were some people who were just like, I want to see him do it again or maybe they'll catch up with them. And again, I just think that what have you installed, if you're in the AFC North, that over Zoom, that's going to help contain Lamar Jackson.

Lamar Jackson was hit more than any player in history since he started tracking it 15 years ago last year. I think Cam Newton in 2016 is number two. But overall, I mean, he's been healthy, his entire career in college. I don't think he must

to start in college. He knows how to take hits. I don't think even though he even though he takes contact, he does, he seems to come out of a fine. And so let's say health is not a question and I don't believe it will be.

I just don't see how how anything prohibits Lamar Jackson from looking generally like he did last year. I just think that there's, you would have to sell out and install packages and all that stuff. And I just think that right now, when we don't even know when training camp starts, I just think teams are going to really struggle to do that. And I just, I don't know, I think it's going to be Lamar and Patrick Mahomes again next year. That's all.

Just real quick, yeah, when you look at the other quarterbacks like his age, what they were doing, I mean, Peyton Manning at 22 through 28 interceptions, Aaron Rogers had attempted 16 career passes. Like, it's crazy. He's 22. Tom Brady wasn't even in the NFL yet at the age that Lamar Jackson won the MVP. Joe Burrow was older than him. Yeah. Old man, Burrow.

The one thing is they were the healthiest offense in the NFL last year. Sure. So if they take some dings there, who knows. But anyway. All right. Here's my number one piece of information, my number one nugget. Football outsiders puts on their website a lot of really cool charts. They're sortable.

and I was digging through them this week. And before I get to my number one nugget, I want to get to their interceptions page. Who do you guys think had the most dropped or deflected interceptions last year that should have been intercepted if you were to guess? Which team or which player? Danny, you give it a go. I have.

Oh, no, I have absolutely no idea. I could. The answer. Is it James? It is James Winston. It is James Winston. Are you serious? James Winston got lucky last year with his interceptions.

He had 13 dropped or deflected interceptions. They have something called adjusted interceptions with how many interceptions you should have had. And his was 40. Amazing. His adjusted interception rate should have been 6.4%. Okay, let's go to the opposite. So they put some deep passing numbers up here, and we'll play the game as well here. There's one player, and Sheila, if you looked at this, no cheating.

There's one player. So we know that Patrick Mahomes throws balls down the field that should be mistake prone for any other quarterback, and he doesn't make mistakes. That's why he is elite. As we've said a million times, 4% of his passes were negatively graded in the playoffs, which is about half of Drew Breeze's regular season, right, which will have the NFL. His numbers are a bit skewed because obviously he had some health issues last year.

But generally when he throws allegedly risky passes, they are not at risk for him. That's why he is Patrick Mulham's. One player last year had better accuracy on deep balls than Patrick Mahomes. You know what was? The first person that comes to my mind is Russell Wilson. It is not Russell Wilson. Okay, okay.

Russell Wilson is behind Gardner Minshu in this category. Really? Wow. Yeah. Overall accuracy. Russell Wilson's at 53. And Mahomes is number two. Watson's number three.

Shield, any guesses? Well, all right. So I don't know if I looked this up or not, but this is the name that's coming to my mind. Was it Jimmy G? It was not Jimmy G. Although Jimmy G is in the zone with Wilson and Wenson and Wenson, Garoppolo, and Kirk Cousins and Lamar Jackson, all over 50%. The answer, a gentleman, is Kyler Murray. Ooh, I like that.

Now, let's break this out a little bit more. They also have a chart for passes thrown between 21 and 30 yards and then 31 plus yards. On those 31 plus yards passes, I almost like want to fact check this because it seems so ridiculous, but I obviously trust their numbers. Kyla Murray not only leads the NFL in accuracy on passes over 31 yards, but his accuracy last year was 85% on those throws. He threw the ball 14 times, which is in the middle of the pack, and had an accurate pass on 12 of those. No one else was even above 60% on this metric.

and I start to think about what this offense can look like in Arizona and I think they have holes on their roster and their division is so good it's almost unfair but I start to think about how fun this offense could be with the Andre Hopkins the guy who even when he's covered he's not covered you can just start chucking the ball down the field in an efficient way and in a smart way and all of a sudden you've got a really interesting roster. And again, I'm not saying that they can win the NFC West. All I'm saying is Tyler Murray could be a lot better than we think this year.

And he could do some really interesting things. And when I look at these numbers and who the hell knows whether or not passes over 31 yards? I'm not smart enough to know if that's sticky year to year. I'm just saying if he can do it at 85%, he's pretty good at it. And I'm starting to think that there could be some real game-changing potential for Kyle Murray as a quarterback. That roster is no, let's say, let's say hypothetically that he gets in the zone, not as good, but generally in the zone of what Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson were in their second years. The problem is, is that Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson were

on just much better rosters, much better infrastructure, all that stuff. So I don't think you'd see the same success. But I do think on a play-to-play basis, you could see some really interesting stuff. Do either of you guys believe in the Arizona Cardinals? Yeah, I am bullish on the Cardinals. I mean, what you said, that passes the sort of eye test of just watching him last year with the deep passing. I mean, I think he might throw the most like, uh, aesthetically pleasing yeah, deep pass in the NFL, you know, he just is like gets back. It's like, uh, he drops back like 15 yards behind the line of scrimmage and just like launches one, uh, downfield. And their offense is interesting because it's almost like a, I felt like it's almost like an NBA offense with a lot of

layups and three-pointers. You know, I feel like they were throwing a lot of quick screens, get the ball out type plays. And then obviously with the deep passing, he was outstanding. And the surrounding cast is going to be even better this year. So yeah, I think two things hurt them last year offensively. I mean, one was, I think Murray even talked about this, that he just, his athleticism, he wasn't like used to being chased down by NFL level defensive ends. You know, he was just trying to keep every play alive and scramble and he was taking too many sacks and negative plays. So that's something you would figure that's going to improve in his second season. And then I remember early on Cliff Kingsbury with like game management stuff was

really bad, I want to say in like the first four, six weeks of the season. But you could kind of see it. I don't know, you know, there's probably a good story there. I don't know who he was talking to, who got in his ear if he just kind of self-evaluated. But he got a lot better at that. I thought in the second half of the season. So yeah, I think they are, if you're looking for sort of a surprise team, a team that can hit their over, a team that can be a sneaky playoff team, I think that's kind of within the realm of outcomes for them. Danny?

Yeah, I think that that's a very interesting stat too, just because it's sort of a microcosmour glimpse into the overall scheme of that offense. And I just, I was thinking, you know, they didn't run as much four-wide stuff and, you know, as we might have thought they would have. They kind of got away from it after the first few weeks. But part of that was Kingsbury adjusting to what worked. And I thought that was, I'd rather that happened than Kingsbury just try to run the same week one stuff and go forward with that.

Yeah. For a first year head coach to be like adjusting to what he came in thinking he was going to do, I mean, that that's one of the things you kind of look for in a guy who's going to be good. There's guys who don't adjust over like the first five years of their NFL coaching career. And Cliff Kingsbury doing it a couple. couple of times in the first eight weeks was admirable. Yeah. So, but that stat specifically where you're talking about, I think it was it 31 to 40 yards or

31 plus yards or whatever? 31 plus yards. Yeah. So I just think my first, my brain went right to the four births concept, right? Like that's sort of the staple thing in the air rated. And I pulled up the Roger Sherman article from a couple of years ago and I'm just going to read you a paragraph from it because he explains it really well. So basically fourverts, and this is Roger, fourverts is really a math problem.

The defense doesn't have enough men to put multiple players in each of those four lanes. No matter what the coverage the defense uses, it has to make a choice about which receiver to leave in single coverage. And basically, the idea is attack single coverage. And Kyler Murray is so accurate that he's able to basically just put the ball exactly where he wants it. And those guys, in that single coverage look, if he makes the right decision with where to go with the ball, it's like the I guess the ceiling of that is so so high because he's so accurate all he has to do is basically make that decision and he's going to put it exactly where the receiver needs it and they're going to get a lot of like really big chunk plays. So that's the first thing that came to my mind with that stat is like that is forverts. That is that is the air raid offense kind of, you know, working for what they're doing.

And I think Kyler Murray, you know, obviously has a ton of experience in that style of offense. and I just can't wait to see what they can do with another year of experience. Obviously getting D'Andaude Hopkins in that offense is going to be huge. And yeah, I just think there's other guys too. Like Andy Isabella didn't really do anything as a rookie. He might have a little bit, you know, better sophomore year. Hopefully he has a big breakout next year. Hakeem Butler is still there.

I think I might be the last person that kind of hopes he turns into something good because I really liked him coming out of the draft, but he's big, tall, fast. I think he fits that offense in terms of what they want to do. That accuracy downfield, obviously, is going to be a big deal. You know, hopefully they can get Hakeem Butler involved too. So I just think there's there's so much upside with what this offense can do. If they start being able to run, especially with what Kingsbury wanted to do, we saw that early in the year where they were running a lot of four-wide stuff.

They adjusted because they didn't have the horses for it. But they certainly have improved their receiver core this year. And so maybe we see them kind of get back to, I think, what the ideal offense that Kingsbury wants to run this year. So I kind of like the idea of, and I have no idea, again, 31 plus yards, who knows if that's sustainable, but I kind of like the idea of Kyle Mouritas being footballist Bryson D. Shambot and just bombing it down the field and it's doing huge chunk plays and nothing else. But before we get out of this, I want to dive deeper into the 31 plus yards metric.

Kyle Allen, again, Kyla Murray. 85% 12 or 14. Kyle Allen, 2 of 21, 9%. Congratulations, Kyle Allen. Yikes. Drew Breez,

one of five. He just opted out last year. Josh Allen's 6 of 27. This is accuracy, not completions, accuracy. And also bad in that metric, Tom Britton, five accurate passes on 19 attempts,

26%. Shield, Nugget number two. All right. Nugget number two, I'm going to the Green Bay Packers and play caller, Matt LaFleur, and also some of their offseason moves. So last year, you know, there's this site that Ben Baldwin, if you follow him on Twitter, he has sort of this great stats site where you can see, you can filter which play callers

were the most pass heavy and which were the most run heavy. He looks at it, you know, first and second down when games are still competitive, basically. because you're getting blown out, you're throwing the ball a lot, and so it filters that stuff out, and you can kind of get a ranking. So last year, the Packers and Matt LaFleur were the third most pass-heavy team in the NFL, which, you know, I think probably makes sense. You would think maybe they would be a little more balanced, but they passed the ball a lot. However, the year before Matt LaFleur was in Tennessee calling the plays,

and they ranked 31st. They were the second most run-heavy team in the NFL. And we know that different teams have different strengths and weaknesses, but for the most part, if you throw the ball on early downs, you really have an advantage, you're getting teams in maybe in their base defense, maybe in different personnel groupings where their pass rushers aren't on the field. So it is an advantage. We saw that with the chiefs.

Andy Reed through the ball more on early downs than any coach in the NFL. And so I don't identify their past heaviness last year as a problem. However, I'm concerned that they identified their past heaviness last. last year as a problem when you look at their draft. I mean, in the second round, in the second round, they take bruising, running back, A.J. Dillon. In the third round, they take this full-back, tight-end hybrid, Josiah DeGuara.

I hope I pronounce that right. And so I am wondering if we are going to go into whenever this next season starts, and they're going to say, you know what, we need to change what we were offensively. Again, I think that's a mistake because they were pretty efficient offensively last year. They're going to run the ball a lot, and it's going to end up hurt. them here and it's going to lead to

fireworks in Green Bay. So that is my second nugget. I kind of like that, a prediction of fireworks in Green Bay. If there are fireworks in Green Bay, and I assume you mean friction between quarterback and coach? Yeah, and just them underachieving.

Yeah. Who does that open a door for? Is that the Vikings? Well, that division is tough to figure out. Yeah, yeah, I mean, I would guess the Vikings. I don't hate the bear. I'll say I don't hate the bears as much as everybody else hates the bears this season. So I should have made that one of my nuggets. But no, yeah, certainly I think it would make the Vikings the favorite in that.

It would have been funny of just one of your nuggets was just, I like the bears. Robert Mays has entered the chat. Okay. Yeah. I do not like the bears. The Vikings to me, I know that there are probably some holes there that a lot of people have talked about whenever I I pick up any Vikings hype. I think that's going to be a pretty close division this year. I don't think either of those teams are, even though I have huge respect for what the Packers did last year in the NFC title game,

I think we saw the difference between them and the 49ers last year. And I think there's going to be a little bit of regression on the Packers part, but I still think that they're a double-digit win team. And I like both of those teams. Danny, where are you in the Packers and that division? I mean, I think that for me, it comes down to the Packers. and Vikings. And I actually had some stats on the Lions. So we could, we could even transition to the Lions if you wanted to. I don't think they're going to be. Is that one of your nuggets?

I have some thoughts on the Lions. I don't. I have, I will say this. The one thing this episode is lacking is a sound effect for Nuggets that every time we have one, we just hit it. We hit the sound effect and, uh, and we go from there because I would have loved just hit, hit something there. Um, but like a horn of some sort. like an air horn. We'll get one for next year, 2021. Yeah, yeah, yeah. We can put it, we can put it in post-pro. All right, Danny, Lions Nugget, go.

Yeah, so not to just leave the Packers one so quickly, but I am intrigued with the Lions' offense, I'll put it that way. I don't necessarily have a lot of faith in Matt Patricia, and I think we don't really, you know, that's, that just kind of goes without saying at this point, but I do have

some faith in Darrell Bevel. And I think that him paired up with Matt Stafford is a really good sort of like match made in heaven because I think it really fits what Daryl Bevel wants to do offensively. It really fits Stafford. It really fits Kenny Galladay. It really fits Marvin Jones. And if they can get their run game going this year and obviously they spent a very high draft pick on Dandre Swift and I think they're really high on him and what he can bring to that run game, it kind of reminds it. I think it's exactly what Bevel wanted to do with the Seahawks back in the day. when he was with Seattle is basically run the ball a lot, do a lot of play action, and throw the ball deep.

So my nugget was that Kenny Ghaladay, who I think is one of the league's sort of like ascending receiver stars, led the NFL with 36 deep targets last year, and that's passes of 20 plus yards. And keep in mind, that was with Stafford only playing eight games. So it was, and I don't even actually, like, was it, David Blowell played a few games, and then Driscoll played a few games, I believe. So I don't remember exactly how much each guy played. But basically, he only played half the year with Stafford. He still led the NFL 36 deep targets.

He had 16 deep catches, which was first, tied for first. 628 of his yards came on those passes, which was second. Five touchdowns on those passes was second in the NFL. These are all per pro football focus. And he led the NFL, he led receivers and touchdowns with 11 last year. So I think getting Stafford back and hopefully he'll be healthy. His back will be okay throughout the whole season. Stafford really had, you know, he was on pace to have one of his best seasons ever, you know, as a pro.

And I think, you know, the contrast between the Darrell Beville offense and the Jim Bob Cooter off couldn't be more stark. Basically, Jim Bob Cooter's offense was dink and dunk. And Bevel with Stafford is attack vertically, aggressively, and I love that. He threw in his eight games this last season, he threw 20 plus yards down the field. 19% of the time. So one out of five. And that was most among regular starters in his first game for it during that stretch, the first eight, uh,

games of the year. He had 19 touchdowns, five interceptions in that stretch, 106 career, 106 pass rating, which would have been a career best. He was on track for that. Um, so I'm not saying,

I don't think that necessarily the lions are going to be a playoff team, but with Stafford, they were three, four and one. Without him, they were 0 and 8. So it completely just fell apart for them down the stretch. This is a pro staff.

podcast. Yeah. So I just think, you know, obviously... He was number 10. He was number 10 in that poll on ESPN. And I got upset because I wanted to get mad about his ranking and they properly ranked him. Yeah. I just think... How dare you properly rank him and not allow me to get upset? He's still only 31 or 32 years old. I mean, he's still... He's part of a lost generation. Yeah. Because the generation above him is, you know, the 30... The Rogers and older than that is Breeze, Brady, obviously Manning, Carson Palmer. And then below him, everyone is just throwing for 4,000 yards all the time. And he is like 2009, like, you know, pro-style offense guy.

Like, I just kind of feel like he got sandwiched in a lost generation. Yeah. Nobody cares. Yeah, he definitely got hit with a, I mean, you look at quarterbacks in the situations they're put into and whether, you know, they're being helped by coaches or whatever. And, you know, his career could have played out totally different. There's no doubt he was fantastic last year. I mean, I thought it was like the most fun version of him we've ever seen where he's just

you know, you're like, no, he's not going to try that throw and he tries it and he nails it. And then he's just chucking the ball downfield, like you said. You know, I do wonder sort of that eight game sample, you know, if you kind of, it's not in line kind of with everything he's done throughout his career. But you could be right. I mean, if it was a change in system and offensive coordinator, then maybe that could be the case. I just, I feel like it was like 200 to 1 that. one of us was going to pick a nugget on the Detroit lion.

That's a heck of a job out of you. I mean, I just don't have a lot of faith, obviously, in Matt Patricia, their defense is going to be bad. So Stafford could certainly be a nice, like, fantasy play. I have a hard time seeing Patricia kind of turning that around to the point where they're a playoff team. I mean, I think it would take what you're mentioning, that Stafford would just kind of have to put the team on his back and have the type of full season that he had for eight

games last year. Yeah. No, I agree with you completely. I was actually going to say, like, there's plenty of room for aggression with Stafford because, like you said, they were basically all these numbers that he was putting up efficiency-wise are off his career averages. So that's a concern. I guess my only, the pie in the sky thought for me is, is in the, specifically in the Bevel style offense, we saw Russell Wilson, like, basically put up really outstanding efficiency numbers every year under Bevel. And I think a lot of that was kind of tied to. the style of ball, which is, you know, they take these surgical deep strikes when, when they get the defense basically, you know, coming up into the box, trying to stop the run game. And then they have, that gives them an advantage for these surgical deep strikes. Maybe Stafford can continue to hit at that efficiency. I mean, he certainly has the skill set to do it. Got a cannon for an arm. You know, he's an experienced starter, experienced veteran. So I don't know. It's definitely one of those ones where

it wouldn't surprise me whatsoever if he regresses this year and the efficiency numbers kind of drop off. at the same time. I mean, he's got the perfect system for it with Goladay. Marvin Jones is one of the most underrated receivers in the NFL. And so I just, I guess there, I wanted to bring in a couple teams that people aren't always talking about and the Lions are one of those. Yeah. That is very much true. All right, my, we'll go through these quickly. So my second nugget, PFF had this a couple weeks ago and I'm fascinated by it. So they ranked the Indianapolis Colts as the best offensive line in football and Quentin Nelson. as among the candidates to be one of the best players in football,

either now or down the line. They had this, and I thought it was really interesting. So in Quint Nelson's first four games in the NFL, he allowed two sacks and ten pressures. Since those, since the first month, essentially, those are the only sacks he's ever allowed, and those pressures accounted for a ballot, half of the total pressure as he's allowed as a rookie. So by the end of the 2019 NFL season,

he was pretty much on fire, as on fire as a guard can be. They have four out of their five starters in the top 10 at their respective positions, and that is why they have the best offensive line of football. This leads to me thinking, when I think about the holes on the Colts roster, aside from some bad luck last year with health, aside from the quarterback stuff, aside from it was just a weird year last year. Obviously, when your franchise quarterback retires in August, weird things tend to happen and they did.

Was that last year? That was only last year. Crazy. Feels like a decade ago. I mean, the Mahomes extension feels like a decade ago. Like, everything feels like a decade ago. But I think that when I start to think about this Colts team, I'm not seeing a lot of negatives here.

I'm not seeing a lot of holes. And I think that this team has the chance. Chris Ballard is one of the best GMs in football. Frank Reich is one of best coaches in football. I'm starting to get high on them to be among. So let's say, as we've said a million times, the chiefs and the Ravens are at the top of the AFC and no one can really touch them.

I'm starting to think the Colts are at the top of that second tier. Am I wrong, guys? No, I think they're there. I think, you know, Danny was talking about the Steelers earlier. I think if things break their way, they could be in that tier. I think the Colts are in that tier. I mean, they've got the easiest schedule. You think they're on the top tier?

No, no, no. Oh, my tier. Yeah, your tier. Yeah, I agree, the Ravens and Chiefs are ahead of everything. The tier of being pretty good, the Kevin Clark tier. I would love to guy. I aim to get to that tier. Yeah, that's pretty good.

They've got the easiest schedule when you look at projected wins. In Vegas, they've got the easiest schedule in the NFL. And then the Adam Vinutari thing last year, I mean, how many games did that cost them? You know, they just totally fell apart in the second half of the season. They stuck with him for way too long, but you're totally right about the offensive line. I mean, and that was with all their sack numbers. Jacoby Brissette held the football more than like any quarterback in the NFL. So taking that into account and then looking at those sack numbers, it's even more impressive.

I think they're going to be good offensively. I have questions about their defense, for sure, specifically the secondary cornerback could be an issue. But overall, I agree. I do like the roster. I'm pretty sure I will be picking them to at least win the AFC sell. Interesting. All right.

Your third nugget. Drew Breeze. So looked good statistically in a number of categories last year. However, if you just filter his stats out to when it was not garbage time, basically. Oh, here comes the Breezlander. This is why we need a horn. Here comes to Breezlander.

Let's go. He ranked 13th in EPA per dropback, which is, you know, expected points added. So he really, his overall numbers were really helped by games where they were up by like three scores. And, you know, Sean Payton's calling these plays and he's padding his stats a little bit. I am thoroughly confused on the Saints. I don't know what you guys think.

But earlier this soft season, they signed Emmanuel Sanders. They signed Malcolm Jenkins. I'm thinking they are going to be the favorites in the NFC to go to the Super Bowl. And since I've cooled on that, digging in a little bit more, I still think they're going to be pretty good. But I wonder if, like, their floor is a little bit lower than I previously anticipated. I don't know. I could be wrong.

So we talked to this a couple weeks ago. I also think that the existence of the Bucks, who I think have a really good roster and obviously have the best quarterback industry of football, even though he's not at this peak, I think the existence of that team hurts the Saints. so much that the Saints might not even play a home playoff game. I mean, they're not guaranteed to do so. It's not like they have some pristine path to the buy or anything like that. And so when I started to think about the NFC teams, I think the Saints are absolutely up there.

And I think they're probably going to win 11 or 12 games, but I don't see them, you know, they didn't win a playoff game last year. They lost to a pretty confusing Vikings team. I just, I'm not in love with the Saints, but I still think they're in that tier two for me. Danny had them in tier one. I think if you look from top to bottom, to me, their roster might be the best in the NFL. Certainly their starting group, you know, just because maybe they have, they don't have a ton of depth at the receiver position after Michael Thomas. But I mean, defensively, they have what could be an elite secondary.

They have two good pass rushers in Marcus Davenport and Cameron, Jordan, good interior defensive line. You know, they've got one of the best running backs in the game. they've got solid, like Jared Cook is still a solid tight in. Our offensive lines, one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. I don't know. To me, they're just really, really balanced. And so pair that with a guy like Sean Payton,

who's been one of the best coaches in the NFL for a long time, Drew Breeze, who, yeah, I mean, he's certainly not the Drew Breeze he was early his career. He's more short and intermediate areas only nowadays, and that's fine. based on kind of like their offensive style, which has been more balanced than it has been in the past. I don't know. I just think to me they're very, very balanced.

They have a really good defense. Their offense has a high ceiling. And they have Tayson Hill. I mean, what else do you want? That's the other thing is like, what are they going to do with Tassam Hill this year? That to me is very, very, it's a joke on Twitter for sure. But at the same time, I mean, they didn't give them this contract for nothing.

Like, they, I would assume they have this huge, plan for him. I don't know. I wouldn't necessarily assume that. I also have James, they also have a 13 dropped interception James Winston on the roster as well. I love that. If they need to turn to them. Danny, your last nugget,

go. Sticking with obscurity, obscure teams that probably no one wanted to talk about. I'm going to go to the Giants. See, no, I disagree. I think people do want to talk about the Giants. I think that there's, no one talks about the Giants. Everyone has just written them off. So let's hear you.

Yeah, so I pulled this stat from Matthew Barry's 100 facts for the 2020 season, 2020 fantasy season. Daniel Jones played zero snaps with Saquan, Barclay, Sterling Shepard, Evan Ingram, Golden Tate, Darius Layton. So that's basically their projected starting offense this year. And so to me,

they were one of the most injured teams, particularly in the past catching group last year. They had just, you know, they had to trot out a bunch of guys that you really hadn't really heard of to go with their rookie quarterback. I think Daniel Jones still showed some stuff, still impressed me. Certainly more than I was expecting.

I don't think he's out of the woods necessarily, but I think they're offense altogether, especially adding Andrew Thomas in the first round, has a chance to be a lot better, I think, than people are expecting our people are envisioning. Just because they have speed, they've got, you know, Barkley, getting Barkley back healthy, can certainly kind of like take some pressure off of Daniel Jones.

You know, Sterling Shepard, Evan Ingram, Golden Tate, Darius Lane. That's a really fast and versatile group. Actually, I saw this tweet from Daniel Jeremiah. He said they pulled 40 times for every team in the league and projected an 11 personnel starting offense. The Giants were actually the fastest

offense in the NFL based on Combine 40 times. Are we starting some Giants hype on the McGroar NFL show? I mean, maybe. So the reason they are number one, I think the big one is because they have Evan Ingram at tight end and he really raises kind of the group. He's a 4-4 guy. Most tight-ins

are 4-6, 4-7-48. So that kind of was their cheat code. But I don't think people would automatically think of the Giants as the fastest offense in the NFL, and they have a chance to be up there with the chiefs in terms of overall team offensive speed. So I just think, you know, to me, this offense is very intriguing. They have a nice mix of veteran-o-o-o-sity and Golden Tate and Sterling Shepard. And then I think Darius Slate is an upcoming potential breakout guy this year. Evan Ingram, if he can stay healthy, obviously very dangerous yards after the catch guy, you know, tons of speed up the seam.

And then it comes down to what we see from Daniel Jones. If Daniel Jones takes a jump in his sophomore season, then I kind of feel like all bets are off for what this offense could do. Now, I'm not necessarily projecting them to make this huge, huge jump because I still think Daniel Jones has a lot to prove. But I don't know, it just feels like no one's really talking about how good that group could be. How many wins for the Giants in 2020? You can't hype up the giant You can't have a nugget on the giants And then just be like they're going to win

I'm not I'm saying their offense is going to be better Than what people think I still think they're probably more like a six seven eight win team at the most But their offense have faith in your know You can't bring a nugget like that And then have them six wins I'm a fantasy guy so I'm thinking like I'm excited to see what his offense can do

I don't have a lot of faith in that defense necessarily but we'll see. This is why I just got to go my route. And I just came on here and just ripped three different teams. I'm noticing now, like you guys are saying nice things about the Colts and the Giants. No, this is why we had you on. The Patriots. Yeah, even my leftovers are like just, you know, just ripping, ripping other teams.

So, yeah, that was my two part too. Yeah, all right. So I'm going to get to real, oh, but shield, before I get to my last nugget, how many wins for the Giants this year? Anything? I would say six. I, for the most part. I mean, that, that, I like that step, but then I was thinking about it, like that Golden Tate 40 time was probably, what, like a decade ago or so.

I mean, but I like Slatein a lot. I like Golden. Gold Tate misses tackles, man. I mean, like, he knows how, he knows how to run in the open field almost better than anybody. He's gyroscope. Yeah. That's, yeah. All right.

So we are, we'll be pleasantly surprised at the Giants win eight games this year. but whatever. I'm higher on them than I joke about, I guess, is the way I would put it. They've become a meme team and whatever. All right, my last nugget very quickly. Jared Goff. Three pieces of information, all of them from PFF,

two of them are from our buddy Sam Monson. Number one, Jared Goff has the lowest PFF passing grade in the NFL when forced to progress beyond his first read. Number two, golf has a top 10 PFF grade on first read throws over the last two seasons. And the third piece of information is that the 2018 Rams, when you don't include the quarterback, is the best supporting cast in the last decade.

The best offense when you take out the quarterback by wins above replacement. Jared Goff has been put in a situation like Patrick Mahomes, like Lamar Jackson, where his coach just knows exactly what he needs to be doing. Jared Goff is not as good as those quarterbacks. That's the problem. And he's paid like it. He's paid, I believe he's around $30 million for the next few years. Second highest cap hit on a contract, Dak Prescott not counting because he's

franchise tag, but Jared Goff has a second highest cap-butt in a league at quarterback this year behind Owen Russell Wilson. And I'm curious off of those three things and just the fact that golf is put in this situation, and he can be a good quarterback. We've seen that. He was in the Super Bowl last year, last calendar year. I don't want to act like he's, you know, he's Nathan Peterman here. He's not. He's a good quarterback. But I'm fascinated to see which direction he goes in this year. Does he continue to regress a little bit? Does he take a step forward and take advantage of the situation he's put in? The answer is, I don't know. I find him fascinating because of the things I just said, because he can be a top 10 quarterback on his first read, because he cannot be a good quarterback

on a second read, because he has a good supporting cast at Les Need and Sean McVey have built around him. I'm fascinated by Jared Goff's place in the football world. What are the expectations from you two guys on the ramps? Well, I don't. I don't. I don't. I don't. I don't. I don't, I don't feel like I agree with some of what those numbers say in terms of the situation he's been put in. I mean, their run game last year was below average. Todd Gurley was not good. If you look at overall efficiency numbers, they're probably around 20th. Their offensive line was not great.

Last year, they were 20th or below. Now, that is not my defense of Jared Gough. I mean, I agree with everything else. I think he's in this, like, mediocre group of quarterbacks who kind of like you said, if everything is going right around them, then they can function and be efficient and play well. I think there's like this large group for quarterback like that. Like the top is probably, you know,

Mahomes, Wilson, Watson, and Jackson maybe right now, you know, you could, if you want to throw a couple other guys in there. But then I feel like there's this group of like,

you know, 10 guys who depending on situation, that's going to be what their numbers show. So I think the Rams are sort of a mediocre team. I mean, I think if they get like great injury lock or, you know, couple things fall their way. They could make the playoffs. But I think they're most likely

scenario. They've got a new defensive coordinator. Their most likely scenario is probably like, you know, around like an eight win team. I mean, I don't see them as real threats in the NFC. Daniel? Yeah. I mean, I think I'm pretty much on that same page. To me, they have a very wide range of outcomes. And it's very hard to kind of peg exactly how good they're going to be. Because last year, it was sort of the tale of two seasons. Their offensive line, was bad to begin the year and they couldn't really do what they wanted to do. They couldn't do what they had done the last couple seasons in terms of just like using the wide zone run game and making everything play off of that. They had to like switch gears midway through the season and kind

of change their entire offense. They did two tight endsets way more. They had some injuries that kind contributed to their thinking on doing that. So I guess my question is, you know, what offense are we going to see next year? Are we going to have this two tight end set heavy group where both Higbee and Gerald Everett are big factors, and you have them doing sort of like gap scheme running up the middle, or are they going to get back to what kind of their bread and butter was a couple of years ago, which was more like based on the wide zone looks and stuff like that. So I don't, yeah, I'm relatively bullish on Goff being better than he was last year.

I think he's probably somewhere in the middle in terms of, you know, he wasn't as good as we saw in the 2018 season. maybe not as bad as we saw last year. I think he's probably somewhere in the middle. So I just think a lot kind of depends, though, on how this offense is schemed up and how they adapt to not having the elite offensive line that they had during, I guess, like, the Rams come up a couple of seasons

where everyone was, like, you know, in love with Sean McBay, and they fell back to earth last year, but are they going to be able to overcome not having that elite offensive line this year? You know, just the fact that, They have a great, a scheme lord at coach, and they have talent on the offense, but the line is not nearly what it was in 2018 last year. And as you said, the running game has progressed.

But I also think that there are, I think a better quarterback could have overcome sort of some of those things. And especially when you combine the schemes into that. And so I just, I'm fascinated by him. I'm fascinated by him at that price tag. and I think it's one of the stories to watch in 2020. All right, guys, I feel like we've got a lot of nuggets out. Good job. So many nuggets.

This has been the Ringgo Renfell Show on the Ringer Podcast Network.