The Ringer NFL Show - The Most Intriguing Draft Slots and The Latest News Roundup

Episode Date: April 26, 2023

Nora Princiotti, Steven Ruiz and Sheil Kapadia open by discussing the latest in the news cycle, and then have their own draft by picking the most intriguing draft positions heading into the NFL Draft ...on Thursday.  Hosts: Nora Princiotti, Steven Ruiz and Sheil Kapadia Associate Producer: Stefan Anderson Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 I'm Ben Solac and I host the Ringer NFL Draft show with Danny Kelly, Danny Hyfitz, and Craig Horbeck. Join us twice a week as we talk everything NFL draft and break down all the players who will make your team better, except the Rams because they don't really have any picks. Check us out on the Ringer NFL show on Spotify. Hello and welcome to the Ringer NFL show. It is the last day before the start of the NFL draft. I'm Nora Pinciotti and I'm so lucky to be joined by Stephen Ruiz and Shiel Kapadia. Steven, how's it going? I'm good. I'm good because of something you just said.
Starting point is 00:00:44 It's the last day before the NFL draft. We're like four days away. We're like four days away. It's very good. Sheila, how are you feeling? Yeah, I was going to say, thank goodness. The end is nearing. Your final takes, get them off.
Starting point is 00:00:58 Your final mocks, get them off. And then we can finally see what happened. So, yes, I am excited that we are this close to the first round. We are very close to the first round. yet there has still, there's still, uh, some movement happening in draft predictions. There are some last minute little news items that are coming across the wires. Uh, the buzz is, is ever changing. It feels like right up to the minute. So what we're going to do is we are later on this episode going to have a conversation about some of the most interesting
Starting point is 00:01:32 pivot points, draft selection slots in round one that the three of us are, are really going to be curious to watch for on Thursday night. But before we do that, we're going to go through a little bit of recent news. Just try to keep on top of all of that buzz as we get down to the minute. And one of the best stories that I think falls into this category is about quarterback Will Levis, whose odds have moved substantially. His odds to be the number two pick have climbed considerably over the last week or so because of Buzz that if the Texans do indeed take a quarterback there,
Starting point is 00:02:09 he might be the guy because it's pretty clear that they don't feel great about C.J. Stroud. But there is movement that he could go number one overall now in response to a Reddit post from a user
Starting point is 00:02:23 sale agreeable 2834 who posted on R slash Sportsbook and R slash Mark my words, which is like a predictions thread, claiming that he is telling friends and family that the Panthers
Starting point is 00:02:40 are taking him number one overall. And I don't want to get too much into the gambling piece of it, but the odds have shifted considerably in response to this. Stephen, does sale agreeable 2834 know something that we
Starting point is 00:02:57 don't? No, I'm supposed to believe someone that couldn't get the original sale agreeable username. I'm sorry, if you have more than one number in your username, I don't believe you. So, I'm with you, although I'm not sure, I'm not sure sale agreeable 2834 implies the existence of sale agreeable 2833 and 2832 and so on and so forth. Maybe this is a special, this is the lucky number that allows Mr. Agreeable to make these spot on out of nowhere predictions. Apparently he only has one other Reddit post and it was like a prediction about who was going to
Starting point is 00:03:32 play Batman and it was not right. So I will look into it. I don't have it in front of me and I forget. But this guy is not necessarily spot on. Although I guess one for two in out of nowhere, big surprise gambling predictions could make you some money. She'll. The Shepter's gotten one wrong before and we still believe in.
Starting point is 00:03:59 Yeah, that's true. Even a broken clock, you know. Sheel, are you in the Reddit threads? Are you following the predictions of sale agreeable? What do you think about this movement for Will Lovice? I haven't jumped in there, but I feel like every year, like, we look at the gambling odds, whether it's two weeks out, three weeks out, and everyone's like, this is what's going to happen, and it's never what's going to happen.
Starting point is 00:04:23 Like, I don't think this is a market. Like, during the season, we look at gambling odds and they're like, ooh, this line might be implying that the quarterback is not 100% healthy. or something like that. And that's because maybe there's some information there that people know. And that's why the line is what it is. But I feel like historically, that has not been the case at all with the draft. Like they are responding to what is it?
Starting point is 00:04:45 Sale agreeable. They're responding to say, you know, it could be Peter King, but it could also be sale agreeable. It could be Peter Schraker. It could be somebody else. So, yeah, I think we need to stop looking at the betting odds for the draft. and assume that they know something we don't know just because I don't think we have any data that suggests that's the case.
Starting point is 00:05:06 And yes, I'm talking to you, Ben Solac. Just to illustrate your point, at this time last year, Malik Willis' over and under was 10, and he ended up going into the third round. See? Thank you. That's all you need to know. I do think that's the biggest takeaway.
Starting point is 00:05:19 The biggest piece of this to me is not that there's a guy claiming that Will Levis is telling his close confidants that he's going number one. it's that it's a good reminder of like the types of things that the markets move in response to including like deep Reddit posts. I don't know or I'll do it. But you know what?
Starting point is 00:05:44 If we're sitting here on Thursday night and Roger Goodell pops out there and announces Will Levis as the number one overall pick to the Panthers, incredible moment. Incredible moment unfortunately for Redditors everywhere. incredible moment, unfortunately, for us, because then we will have to follow stuff like this more carefully in the future, which does not sound fun to me. Again, I don't think this is real,
Starting point is 00:06:11 but Stephen, as our resident panthers correspondent, if it happened, how would you react? I would be upset. I would stop pounding immediately, all pounding at the one right when it happens. But I feel that same away. about the pick that they're supposedly going to make. So I don't know.
Starting point is 00:06:32 I don't know if I would be as upset as you might imagine. But he's like my fourth quarterback. I came out with my quarterback rankings this week. He was fourth on my list. I could see why teams would talk themselves into him. I don't know about first overall, but I could definitely see that. He is a quarterback with immense talent.
Starting point is 00:06:49 Like he has a lot of talent. You just need to fix a couple of flaws. They might be fatal flaws. But if you fix him, then you can see why you would want him because he's one of these quarterbacks, these new age quarterbacks who can do everything basically. And if you want to compete with them homeses and the islands of the world,
Starting point is 00:07:04 you need a quarterback like this. I feel like the bar for what's a good draft pick, especially with a quarterback in the first round, it's kind of moved in the last couple of years, where in the past you just kind of wanted to avoid a bust. And now it's like it's not just avoiding a bus. It's like not only do we need to avoid a bad player, but we need to get a great player,
Starting point is 00:07:23 especially when you're drafting that highly. because the bar for elite quarterback play, I think, is raised, and you need to be a more dynamic talent. So I can certainly see why there is buzz around Levis. He's that type of player or he has that type of potential. I don't see him reaching that potential, but I could see NFL teams talking themselves into it. Yeah, I mean, I do think there's a very solid chance
Starting point is 00:07:42 that he goes number two to Houston. I think we'll have a chance to talk about that a little bit later. But the idea that he gets drafted very, very high, I think seems very credible. at this point. So we will see. We'll be watching to see what happens on the sale agreeable friend on the Will Levis friend. Right now, though, another development over the last couple of days. The Rogers trade, it's gone through. Rogers is in Florham Park, New Jersey. I believe as we speak, and Joe Douglas and Brian Fudacunds both got a chance to talk about how the trade went down, give their thoughts on the compensation. Rogers, I believe, is giving. giving a press conference at the Jets facility is this afternoon. So that could always be interesting. I hope we don't end up back here in an emergency podcast this afternoon because he does
Starting point is 00:08:36 something to blow up our days. But I suppose we'll see. The most interesting part of that to me was Joe Douglas sort of having to defend the cost in the draft capital that they sent to Green Bay. He said, obviously, we're comfortable with how this deal is shaped. I don't think anyone ever walks away from a negotiation where you feel like. you won everything in terms of what's going back and forth, but ultimately our goal from the beginning was to add Aaron to the team.
Starting point is 00:09:02 I'm curious to hear what you guys think about what the Jets gave up, because what I've seen seems like the consensus feeling is they gave a little bit too much or they weren't able to sort of find any leverage against Green Bay. They effectively moved down from 13 to 15. in the first round and then it's a second round pick this year and effectively an injury protected first round pick next year because it's at that condition of Rogers playing 65% of the snaps, which if he doesn't have a massive injury, he probably will. This is the thing that I want to run by you guys and see if you disagree with me because I feel
Starting point is 00:09:48 like I don't feel the way that most people feel about this. I think it's fine. It's not, I mean, I don't think. that the Jets like massively won the trade and fleeced Green Bay, I think Goodikinz did a fairly good job. With Rogers, of course, there's the concern that he just plays a year and that he's out of there. But I feel a little bit like, I feel like I'm taking crazy pills a little bit because my recollection is that two months ago, a very, very prevalent idea was that the Packers were going to be asking for two first round picks in exchange for Rogers and that some of the
Starting point is 00:10:27 quarterback deals that they were sort of using to create the context around what they would be asking for were the Deshaun Watson trade, were the Matt Stafford trade, or the Russell Wilson trade. Obviously, all of those are really, really, really different situations. But also, all three of those veteran quarterbacks who are earning tons of money, from the teams that traded for them. All of those trades involved two or three first round picks and other compensation. So it's just a little, like, Rogers could be won and done in New York. And I think if you're the Jets, you end up a little bit disappointed in that.
Starting point is 00:11:06 But it's interesting to me to see how quickly kind of what we anchor ourselves to can change. Because I just really have a hard time getting out of bed to be like, man, the Jets gave up way too. much for Aaron Rogers. He's a funny guy. He's talked about retiring. He also was the MVP of the league two of the last three years. Shield, what do you think about what New York gave up to Green Bay for Rogers? I think you make a good point about the timing. Like, if this would have been announced at the start of free agency or before even free agency and if this was the price, then I don't think anyone would have had an issue with it. But it was such a clumsy sort of public, weird negotiation. He's going in the, the, what was it, the dark, dark cave?
Starting point is 00:11:50 I don't even remember what it was called. Darkness retreat. He comes out. He comes out. He has clarity there. I think the Packers, the fact that the Packers could never get another team involved, at least that we know of, I think sort of shapes the way we look at this. Because it just seemed like for months now that it was the Jets and no one else.
Starting point is 00:12:09 And so if it's the Jets and no one else, to me, I agree with you for the most part. Like I think the pick swap this year, the second round pick this year, those are fine. And to me, the conditions on that pick next year, like, if I'm the Jets, I'm like, hold on now. Like this is, like you said, we don't know what this guy's going to be thinking a year from now. Let's tie that pick, whether it's a second or a first round pick, to whether he's on the roster in 2024. Because those other quarterbacks you mentioned, all those teams, whether it was correct or not, they thought they were trading for a quarterback. They felt pretty good.
Starting point is 00:12:42 They were trading for a quarterback for multiple years. And not a quarterback who's turning 40 this year. I mean, I've mentioned this before, but Rogers has just, I mean, Tom Brady has just ruined what we think of with aging curves. You know, there have been five quarterbacks in the Super Bowl era who have started 10 games in their age 40 season. And so he's attempting to be six here this year. Like, it usually doesn't happen that a guy at this stage of his career is going to be a starter and above average starter. And so if I were the Jets, I would have been like, you don't have anyone else involved. You're not keeping him on the roster for $60 million.
Starting point is 00:13:15 He won't return your phone calls. We'll get this done, but we want some protection going forward. Now, having said that, what are we talking about? The difference between the second and the first, it's not like going to kill your franchise either way. But I feel like they were in a position to at least exercise a little bit more leverage. I'm like close to being done with the draft charts because like I saw some tweets where it was like, what they traded was the equivalent of the third overall pick. And like when you see that, you're like, oh, they maybe gave up too much.
Starting point is 00:13:45 but it's not the third overall pick. It's the 42nd. So how do you even, how do you even do that? Right. How do you even do that? First of all, we don't know where that, I mean, regardless of whether the condition gets met and it's the second or a first, we don't know where that pick slot fit.
Starting point is 00:14:01 I think it's based on like averages or like where. Averages? Okay. Yeah, what's expected. I think the truth with those draft charts is, yeah, there are these analytical draft charts that everyone will look at even in the next three days and say, wow, this team got these. this team got pleased. NFL teams look at what was a previous trade like this and or what were the
Starting point is 00:14:21 three previous trades like this and we'll do something similar. Like yes, every team has their own chart. There's Jimmy Johnson thing is still relevant. There are new age ones. But there's not like these ones that are just agreed on that, you know, everyone uses. And so that has been the issue. So I feel like that's something to keep in mind just as we look ahead to the draft trades is that that that's not how NFL teams are doing business in my opinion going off those kind of new analytically based charts. Right. And I feel like if you called up a team and it was like, hey, we'll give you a pick two spots higher in the first round this year, the 42nd pick, and then maybe a first round pick next year, but definitely a second round pick. And I want the third overall pick. The
Starting point is 00:14:59 other team would laugh at you. Like I don't think that's the point. And I'm less concerned about like Rogers longevity in New York. I know we're basing this off like public comments, but he met with the team before the trade was made. Like I'm sure that conversation happened. And I'm sure, like we know, like Nora said, Rogers is a guy that's kind of like cryptic in public. He jokes a lot. He could be trolling us for all we know. I think he had a conversation with the Jets about that. And the fact that the Jets didn't tie him playing next year into the compensation, I think bodes well for how that conversation went and what they got from Aaron Rogers. I think he's going to be there beyond this year. And I honestly think the 65% of the SNAP's protection is good enough for me. I really don't think it's that big of a deal.
Starting point is 00:15:46 And honestly, whatever the compensation was going to be, like how we judge the trade in hindsight is always going to be based on Aaron Rock, on how he plays. Like, if he plays enough, we won't care about the first round pick next year. If he played crappy enough and it wasn't a first round pick and it was a second round pick, we would still be laughing at the Jets for giving up a second round pick. So I'm not too concerned. I think Rogers has good football left in him.
Starting point is 00:16:11 I know he didn't have the best year last year, but I still thought, like, in a vacuum, individual talent-wise, he was a top-10 quarterback. And then you have to factor that he had the thumb injury. And that affected his throws. And you could see it and you could see it in his accuracy rates. There were still examples of high-level play every single week. And I think if he's healthier, which is a big if because he is 40, I mean, we could look back on it and be, and say, Green Bay didn't get enough. They just traded away the best player in franchise history for a conditional first-round pick and a second-round pick, essentially.
Starting point is 00:16:41 he has so much baggage and it's such a specific situation that like again it's it's it's more than it's not apple storages it's like apples to drafts or something but like again i just look at those other veteran quarterback deals and guess shil you're totally right to point out that all of those teams right or wrong made those trades for more than a year i do think it's i think the jets probably feel like they did this for more than a year but do have to guard against the possibility that right Rogers, you know, wakes up at the end of the season and feels 100% retired instead of 90, even though I think he was full of crap when he said that. But you just go down the list of the, like the Watson compensation was three firsts, a third and a fourth. Stafford was two firsts, a third, and Jared Goff, although they had to pay him, the part of that had to do with the salary, but still, it's a lot. Wilson was two firsts, two second, Noah, fan, Shelby Harris.
Starting point is 00:17:38 Like, this is a lot less than that. Yeah. It's like, it is a lot less than those deals. And honestly, the worst part about the Wilson deal in hindsight isn't necessarily the picks. It's the contract they gave them after. Like, that's what we're talking about when we're calling Wilson an albatross essentially. If Deshaun Watson doesn't play better than he did last year, we're going to be having that same conversation. We're not going to be hung up on the three first round picks they gave up.
Starting point is 00:18:04 We're going to be talking about the fully guaranteed deal they gave up. And the Jets, I mean, obviously they're working out, I think, an adjustment to the contract, but I'm assuming they're not going to lock themselves into like a $200 million deal over, like, the course of four or five years. One would hope. I reserve the right to change this entire take if they do something like that. But all right. I feel better now about where we are on the Rogers trade compensation front.
Starting point is 00:18:35 last thing I have for you guys is another piece of like last minute draft expectation movement which is that Ohio State tackle Paris Johnson is now favored to be the number three pick. I think mostly because of a report by Mike Garifolo this week in which he said that Kyler Murray really likes
Starting point is 00:18:57 Johnson and has told the decision makers in Arizona as much. I am confused by this because I just don't think that they're really going to listen to Kyler Murray about something like that. But I guess this falls into the category of if a Redditor can move the line substantially,
Starting point is 00:19:17 then Kyler Murray probably can do. Stephen, what do you think about Kyler being the mover and shaker of the draft? I saw like a part of that report was that in the past he's recommended Tristan Wirfs and Creed Humphrey, two players that ended up being very good draft picks. So maybe Kyler.
Starting point is 00:19:35 knows what he's talking about. And my question is, Kyler's watching tape with other players, but he's not watching tape with the Cardinals' offense? Like, how do you get this? Like, maybe we misread the clause in the contract. Maybe they're like, no, you can only watch 40 hours of tape.
Starting point is 00:19:50 You can't watch any more than that. You're watching too much tape, Kyler. I don't, like, he's, apparently he's very good at evaluating the offensive line. So maybe they should listen to him. Because if you look through the past picks of the Cardinals, they're not very good at it. And I know they have a new GM,
Starting point is 00:20:04 but it's the same front office essentially. So listen to Kyler. He knows ball. Yeah, maybe he was watching. Maybe he was grinding that O-line prospect film in like November. You know, it's never too early to get a look on those guys and see who you're going to like. You're right. I mean, I don't think he could have done a worse job than Steve Kime and their previous regime did with those draft picks just when you look at the pro football reference page.
Starting point is 00:20:28 But yeah, it's funny to me because like the Cardinals' best case scenario long term might be that Kyler Murray never plays another snap for him. and that like he doesn't play this year. They're the worst team in the NFL. They draft Caleb Williams next year. And now all of a sudden they're set for, you know, they've hit the lottery. They've had the worst team in the absolute correct year. And now they're set up for success.
Starting point is 00:20:47 And they trade Kyler Murray. So I don't know how that affects Parrish Johnson, but that's just kind of my take. You look at the Cardinals roster and you're just like, wow, okay, there are some gaping holes on this roster. I don't have confidence in the coaching staff. And so maybe you just let Kyler Murray be shadowed GM. And then eventually he can pick the team he gets traded to.
Starting point is 00:21:07 He can determine the compensation and everyone lives happily ever after. Well, it gives him something to do while he's injured. I think problem solved. I don't think there's any chance that this is legit because the Cardinals want to trade that pick. They were, I forget if it was, I think it was Todd McShay posted just like a sort of week of draft things I'm hearing buzz. And I believe he called the Cardinal. borderline desperate to trade the pick
Starting point is 00:21:38 which I thought was really funny they want to trade it they don't want to make that big so like I'm sure they're saying all sorts of things to all sorts of people but with apologies to Kyler I don't think they have any interest in taking Paris Johnson
Starting point is 00:21:52 at number three because I don't think they have any interest in taking anyone at number three What if Kyler is sale agreeable 258 or whatever Anything like that? What if Kyler is saying Omni. Every NFL mystery human. Just Kyler Murray. Just moving and shake him behind the scenes. I love it. I love it. Honestly, it would explain a lot. All right. We're going to move into our segment on the most interesting slots in the first round. But first, it's time for a special part of today's show brought to you by Heineken Silver. New crisp and refreshing, Heineken Silver has only 3.2 carbs and 95 calories. And a taste with no bitter endings. And if you're a football fan, you've probably experienced one or two bitter endings.
Starting point is 00:22:39 So let's talk about him. Stephen, you are a Carolina Panthers fan. Has this made you at all familiar with the concept of a bitter ending to a season, a bitter ending to, say, a draft pick, maybe if they did go and take Will Levis, a bitter ending to the construction of a new facility? Tell us about this experience. I mean, the facility never got built, so I guess there wasn't a bitter ending.
Starting point is 00:23:07 But yeah, I had a bitter ending to my dreams of Anthony Richardson this week because I finally come to grips and I finally accepted that they're taking Breitjong. They're taking the 510, 190-pound quarterback. The historical outlier, a person of the size has never been picked. And they traded up to do so. They traded away the best player on the roster, DJ Moore, to do so. Yeah, I'd say that my draft season is headed toward a bitter ending. I'm sorry to hear that.
Starting point is 00:23:33 What was the moment where you really, you know, looked yourself in the mirror and said, all right, it's not happening. Anthony Richardson is not happening. I think it was really the moment. And I'm looking back in hindsight at the pro day when David Tepper's wife gave Bryce Young a big hug. That probably gave it away that they were going to draft him. And that was the bitter ending to your, tier Anthony Richardson to the Panthers. draft hopes. Shiel, what is a bitter ending that you as a sports fan have experienced? You know what? Mine was as a reporter when I went to Seattle, like people always would joke with
Starting point is 00:24:15 me for a while. They're like, you know what? Wherever you go, the team is good. Like you saw the Seahawks win the Super Bowl. Then you go cover the Eagles and they won the Super Bowl. I'm like, no, no, no, no. I did not see the Seahawks on the Super Bowl. I got to Seattle in the offseason where they had the most bitter ending in NFL history. And I entered this locker room where defensive players were like, see that quarterback over there? And that coach, they cost us the chance of being a dynasty here and winning back-to-back Super Bowl.
Starting point is 00:24:44 So as soon as I saw this prompt that we're talking bitter endings, like that one will forever live with me. Just that play will live on forever. I think that's got to be the most bitter ending in NFL history. I have kind of a similar, I mean, I, in a lot of ways, have absolutely no complaints because when I covered the Patriots, the first, they went to three Super Bowls in a row. And then my last year there was Tom Brady's last year there. So after all of that, after that just like the second chunk of that dynasty, what I went out on and what he went out on, more importantly, was the pick six to Logan Ryan.
Starting point is 00:25:25 And that was like the last, that was the last play I ever saw, ever covered against the Titans in Gillette Stadium as a beat reporter there. And it was just like, the funny thing was it was before the pandemic started too. So it was like you pack up, you go home, season's over. And then I, in that off season, like got a new job. And then we all went into quarantine. So it was just like, goodbye. And then Tom Brady went to the bucks.
Starting point is 00:25:54 So. You know, sometimes bitter endings are preceded by very high highs, but it's worth remembering. I mean, I even think about, okay, the stuff with Aaron Rogers right now, there are so many mirrors to what happened with Brett Barb. We'll see how it ends. It could even go pretty well and then not end well. But there's always the possibility for a fall.
Starting point is 00:26:23 I have to say, guys, those two endings for me, they went down smooth. They were not bitter. They went down like an ice ice-indicine. Everybody has a different, a very distinct palette for what constitutes a bitter sports ending because a bitter end for someone is just a joyful triumph for someone else. And thankfully, with Heineken Silver, you get all the taste with no bitter endings. Only 3.2 carbs and 95 calories. that's new crisp and refreshing Heineken Silver. Order now at hynican.com slash silver must be 21 plus to purchase.
Starting point is 00:26:59 Please enjoy Heineken responsibly. All right. So we're going to continue with a little pre-draft exercise where we are each going to go around and share two draft positions that we think are particularly interesting in night one. So maybe that's a team that might where we don't know what player they're going to take, something that might, a pick that might get traded. where a positional run might start. So, Sheel, why don't you kick us off with a first draft slot that you are watching Thursday night? No, I get the number one pick. I didn't even know what the order was going to be.
Starting point is 00:27:42 How exciting. I was prepared for anything here. I'm going to go with... I like to keep it loose, you know. Yeah, I like that. Thank you. I'm oldest to youngest as we do in the Capadia family is maybe what we're doing here.
Starting point is 00:27:55 Seahawks, number five. to me is like the most interesting spot in the first round. I have no idea what they're going to do. Jalen Carter, he drops to five. That environment for Jalen Carter could be fantastic. I think I like Jalen Carter's film more than any other player in this year's draft. Like I just see the ceiling so clearly that this guy could be a game wrecker, a defensive player of the year candidate, potential Hall of Fame.
Starting point is 00:28:23 I know that seems like wild to say when he hasn't played an NFL snap, but you can just see it. with the player that if he hits, he's going to hit in a big way. And that Seahawks organization had a great draft last year. They need more blue chip players on defense. That could make a lot of tense to me. I could just see Pete Carroll being like, don't worry, we're getting him in our building.
Starting point is 00:28:43 We'll get, you know, the old legends to come down and talk to him. He's going to be fine. He's going to be awesome here. That's one option. Option number two, where I can't wait to get Ruiz's opinion on this, because I know he likes both these guys. If Anthony Richardson's there at five, what do you do if you're the Seahawks?
Starting point is 00:28:59 I mean, I thought they signed the best contract for any team with a quarterback this offseason the way they structured that Gino Smith deal. I mean, if he plays well, hey, you've got him under contract, no problem. If you want to move on after a year, guess what? It's like a one-year commitment. You can absolutely do that.
Starting point is 00:29:17 And so it's like a nice situation to take a flyer on someone like Anthony Richardson. If he hits, man, you are set up for really the rest of Pete Carroll's career. as an NFL head coach. And if he doesn't hit, like, it's not the end of the world. It's not going to sink your franchise if Anthony Richardson doesn't hit. And I just remember, and I think I've mentioned this before, but Pete Carroll would talk about when he was at USC,
Starting point is 00:29:41 and they would have, like, their national signing day, and he would show the highlights of the incoming freshmen to his existing players and be like, these guys are coming to take your job. So if you don't want them to, you better do something about it. Like, it's a cutthroat, yeah, competitive, environment there. And so what we've heard from Gino Smith, I mean, he honestly sounds like one of the most mature quarterbacks in the NFL. If you've watched any of his press conferences in the last year, like you can tell how those experiences have shaped him. And so I think they would be uniquely qualified to handle that type of situation where you say, you know, Richardson, you're sitting this year unless you prove to us that you absolutely deserve to be on the field. I think Gino would be fine with him being there. Gino seems pretty thankful about where he is. If Gino plays well, he keeps the job. If not. you have another option. So that to me,
Starting point is 00:30:30 and by the way, they could trade back. I mean, John Schneider loves trading back. Like, maybe both those guys are gone and they say, hey,
Starting point is 00:30:35 we're trading back for more draft capital. So to me, like, there are so many spots in the first round that are exciting, but I would just go back and forth when I was doing my mock. Reno, Carter, Richardson,
Starting point is 00:30:46 Carter, I couldn't decide ultimately. I landed on them taking Richardson, but that to me is going to be the most fun spot in the first round. Stephen, you are John Schneider. Jalen Carter is available at 5.
Starting point is 00:31:00 Anthony Richardson is available at 5. You're on the clock. What do you do? I'm taking Richardson. And I agree with Sheel. I think Jalen Carter in a vacuum. I hear like sadness in your voice. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:31:12 For Gina. Gino's not listening. Geez, Gino. Hopefully he's taking like a podcast break or something. No, that was Panthers. That was Panthers' sadness. Because the Panthers aren't going to get Richardson. No, I think like teams, like she'll said,
Starting point is 00:31:23 like the Seahawks need a blue chip defensive player, especially on the interior of the line. We talked so much last year about how soft that defense was and how much they struggled to stop the run, especially against the 49ers. I think you throw a guy like that into the middle of the defensive line and everyone gets better. But I don't think when you're picking this highly,
Starting point is 00:31:43 you should be chasing needs at this point because what your need is today might not be your need a year from now and you might look back and be like, we needed a quarterback and Anthony Richardson was there. I would take Richardson. and I agree with everything Shield said, like this is the perfect spot for him.
Starting point is 00:31:59 This is like, I don't think you have to worry about Gino, how he reacts. Gino was sitting on the bench for 10 years. And look at the teams that he signed with. Like, he signed with teams that had firmly entrenched quarterbacks,
Starting point is 00:32:13 franchise quarterbacks, signed with the Giants, they had Eli Manning, he signed with the Charters, they had Philip Rivers. He signed with the Seahawks. They had Russell Wilson. I don't think he's afraid of the competition.
Starting point is 00:32:22 And I think Pete does want competition in there. I don't think he, has a worry about Gino becoming complacent or whatever because, first of all, the contract has those built-in incentives to keep getting better. But I just think he wants to have as many good dudes in the building as possible. And Richardson, he's not as good as Jalen Carter, like, as a football player, but positional value-wise, if you hit on him, like, I really think that sets your franchise up for the next 10 years. I don't know if Pete is going to be there, but I would imagine John Schneider will be there and he has a big say in the pick. So if I'm then,
Starting point is 00:32:59 I'm taking, and if he's there, I think that's who Seattle ends up taking, even if Carter's on the board. I think I'm inclined to agree with you, Stephen. And now that's a good, if you guys don't mind, I'll give you my first one because she'll, you are the master of the setup and you sent me up perfectly because you mentioned that Schneider loves to trade down and I think we will see him trade down in the first round. But I don't, I don't think it's going to be with number five, because I think they're in such a good position at five to just let the board come to them. And whether it's someone like Richardson, whether it's Carter, I think they would be pretty thrilled in, in either case, or there's a number of players that they would be thrilled to
Starting point is 00:33:37 take there. I know with Carter, there is some buzz that, you know, the experience with Malik Dowell sort of soured them on what they have historically done, which is be willing to take chances on guys with sort of checkered paths or the quote unquote character concern. So we'll see how that turns out. But I do think that number five spot is this like really nice draft position where you don't need to be in like the Colts shoes where it's just like, ah, there's four quarterbacks supposedly. But what if they all got like, what are we going to be left with? Are we going to be left sort of standing when the music stops? Um, where Seattle can just do whatever feels best there. And they're going to feel like they came away with a really,
Starting point is 00:34:18 really exciting player. At number 20, though, which is their first pick in, their second pick in the first round and a spot that I'm really interested in, I bet, like if I had to bet on a draft pick getting traded in the first round, the first one that I would go with would be number three,
Starting point is 00:34:37 because the Cardinals obviously want to move out of that. But the second one that I would go with would be the Seahawks other pick at number 20 because Schneider loves to trade down. And this pick is like, right at the top of one of the clearest positional run areas in the first round, which is what should be a run on receivers with the chargers at 21, the Ravens at 22, the Jaguars at 24, and the Giants at 25.
Starting point is 00:35:07 So if you want your guy, if you are, you know, whatever team and you want to get there to be able to leapfrog all of those teams to take. the receiver of your choice. The first guy you're calling is John Schneider, who historically very willing to make deals in that way. So I am really curious to see if Seattle can not only get an impact player at number five, whatever direction they go in there, although I do think that they would,
Starting point is 00:35:37 I would be the most excited if they took Richardson. But then also come out with some additional capital picked up, potentially with that number 20. pick, even in a draft where it is probably going to be pretty hard for teams to trade down, just because once you get outside of the first few picks, I think there's going to be more teams that want to trade down than teams that want to trade up. But the exceptions to that are those sweet spots where somebody might need to jump in front of teams that have the same positional needs. And I think that number 20-20 pick is a real receiver sweet spot. Yeah, I had picked that
Starting point is 00:36:18 that pointing the draft out too for the same reason. I don't even think it's just receiver. I think it's just past catchers in general. I think that's when you can start to see the tight ends come off the board. But yeah, I totally agree. I think that's when we see our first receiver come off. And my pick, I'm surprised you guys let this fall to me. Like the number two pick, Houston.
Starting point is 00:36:38 Does anyone know what Houston's doing? And I feel like that's going to dictate the rest of the draft, especially if they take a quarterback. I think then you might see teams more inclined to try to jump up maybe in front of Indianapolis, Indianapolis makes a trade just to prevent that themselves with Arizona. So I think number two is fascinating to me. And then I think it opens up a bigger discussion,
Starting point is 00:36:59 a wider discussion on should Houston be taking a quarterback? Obviously, they need one. And they have the number 12 picks. So maybe the hope is that one will fall to them there. But I'm looking at that next draft class. I know like you're not supposed to do that, but I'm looking at this next QB class. And I think I think I made this argument before on the pot a couple weeks ago,
Starting point is 00:37:18 if you're Houston, why not just be bad for another year? Why not just draft around the quarterback position, strengthen that? So when you do drop this quarterback that you eventually draft into the roster, there's a nice foundation around them. Right now they don't have that. Like dropping Will Levis into this team, I think that's a recipe for disaster. I think any of the quarterbacks, really, Anthony Richardson, C.J. Stroudey, even Bryce Young, I know he's going first overall, but even if he were to fall to Houston,
Starting point is 00:37:46 And I don't think the supporting castes there to make it work. And we talk so much about how much landing spot matters for these quarterbacks. I don't think Houston's a good landing spot for a quarterback right now. So if I'm them, I'm either keeping the pick and drafting Will Anderson, Tyree Wilson, or I'm trading down and taking another blue chip prospect at a different position. I'm waiting until next year to get my quarterback. Okay, here's where you could sell that to me, is if they trade back and they get like a future first for next year. because I hear what you're saying.
Starting point is 00:38:15 I'm watching Caleb Williams like everyone else going, oh my gosh, if you could guarantee me, I get this guy next year, I'll do pretty much anything this year to tank. But think of what you're like asking. Think of what the odds are. I mean, you have to have the worst record in the NFL. They thought they did the whole season. And then Lovie said, not so fast, my friends, here's something on the way out.
Starting point is 00:38:37 That's all it takes. Like one fluky win in December and all of a sudden, guess what? You don't get Caleb Williams. And, you know, you could like Drake May also. But, you know, then all it takes is two fluke wins or two teams with the same idea who are like, we're going to suck this year. The Cardinals, I told you, are already going to be in that boat.
Starting point is 00:38:53 So it's just so hard to guarantee. I think I'm different. Like, I feel like these prospects are pretty good this year, you know? Like, if I were the Texans, I'd just be like, all right, you take Bryce Young. I'll take whichever guy I like next does, you know, C.J. Stroud or Anthony Richardson. Like, at some point, you have to take, you have to take a shot on a quarterback. You can't just sit there and say, well, wait for next year, wait for next year. So I feel like they have to have some kind of plan B, like to just start Davis Mills this year.
Starting point is 00:39:20 And then D'Amico Rines is trying to install a new culture. And then you're saying about our plan also at quarterback is to suck so bad that we're going to be guaranteed one of the top. It's like a tight. It's good if it works. I'm all on board if you could guarantee it. But I think it's a tough needle to thread there. So I don't know what they're going to do. I mean, I think Norton and I talked about this before that like we,
Starting point is 00:39:42 They made what we think is a good hire in Dimeco Ryans. Don't let that distract us from the fact that this is a train wreck of an organization who has done like literally nothing else right. And like to assume that they have some sort of plan would be a mistake. So maybe they don't take a quarterback there. Maybe they trade for Trey Lance. Maybe they revisit Lamar. Maybe they wait till next year or do something.
Starting point is 00:40:03 But yeah, it's a fun draft because number two is such a wildcard. Like 10 minutes in we're going to be going. I have no idea what this team's going to do. Well, the other thing is. that like, so number two is, is a wild card because we don't know what Houston's going to do, but there's this undercurrent of, oh, well, they could not take a quarterback at number two because they also have number 12. No one knows what is happening in the first 10 picks of this draft.
Starting point is 00:40:28 No one has any idea how this is actually going to play out. So you're staking the future of your franchise on like, well, we also have the 12th pick. And maybe we can get a quarterback there. Well, maybe you can't. And then what are you going to do? We're going to go two years in a row with two first round picks and come out of it with like a middling to crappy roster and no quarterback. Like Nick Casario, this is bad news for an organization when you got a general manager who's like drafting to save his job essentially. But it seems like he might be.
Starting point is 00:41:03 And we don't know who like is he making the pick? Is Miko Ryan's making the pick? I have more positive feeling towards D'Amico Ryans as a high-level person in your football organization than Nick Casario based on track record right now. That said, I'm just not sure what credentials D'Miko Ryans really brings that make me want him to pick who a quarterback with the second overall pick in the draft is. So, like, I guess I agree I'm of two minds about it because, yeah, this is a bad situation. to drop a young quarterback into. Like he's thrown on Nico Collins and Noah Brown and Robert Woods.
Starting point is 00:41:42 Like that's not awesome. Also, it's like the meme with the guy poking with the stick. Like, you gotta do something. It's time. Like you're running out of just options to be like, well, we have a massive amount of
Starting point is 00:42:00 high-end draft capital, but we're just gonna, we're just gonna wait. We're just gonna wait another year. I'm just not sure that they can get away with it. And I don't know what they're doing with the stuff around the 12th pick because I've just absolutely no idea unless you're like, we're really okay if it's Hendon Hooker.
Starting point is 00:42:19 If it's Hendon Hooker, emergency pod right when the pick is. It doesn't even have to be anyone else on it. It's just me ranching for like an hour. I don't think that's going to happen. But there's a very, very reasonable chance that you can't get one of the other four with the 12th pick. It might not happen. Like somebody might fall there.
Starting point is 00:42:37 But you can't stake the future of your organization on that because nobody in the entire league has enough information to even make like a solid guess on that right now. But I think that's like the big winner of the first round, in my opinion, of the teams that are drafting quarterbacks is the one that doesn't have to reach, the one where the quarterback falls to them. I think you can make an argument for any of the four being the best quarterback or the one that should go out the board first. Right, but isn't that team? And in a draft like that. And in a draft like that. And are most likely to end up in that situation like Seattle and Detroit, we're picking five and six. Like we could end up feeling if one of them ends up, you know, whether it's Richardson or even like a CJ Stroud might seem like the most likely other faller here.
Starting point is 00:43:29 If one of those teams ends up with one of those guys, we at the end of round one are going to be like, oh my God, great draft for them because one of the top four quarterbacks fell to a position where we didn't necessarily know that they were going to go quarterback, but the opportunity presented itself and they did it. Here is some math for you.
Starting point is 00:43:51 There are quite a few numbers in between six and 12. So I wouldn't count on it. Another good segue. Are we doing snake order and I let you go back to back or am I up again? Because you kind of set me up with my next pick here. I'm very unbiased and I think we should go snake order. So I can go next. Because I think Shield's going to jump me and take my next pick.
Starting point is 00:44:18 That's fine. I got multiple. We can go snake order, but I'm going to interrupt this for just a brief, brief bit of breaking news, which is that the commanders are not going to exercise Chase Young's fifth year option. Um, Stephen, since you'll be next up in our snake order, any reaction to that news out of Washington? I mean, it makes sense. He hasn't stayed on the field. And the big concern when you lock someone down on their fifth year option now, since it's fully guaranteed, is them not playing the next year. So it makes perfect sense to me. I also think they're gearing up for, you know, them being able to keep both Chase Young and Montez Sweat long term is going to be financially challenging. And this might be.
Starting point is 00:45:03 be part of however they try to structure things so that maybe they can because you can obviously still do a long-term deal, but I think we're seeing the financial hardship of that start to take shape. I'm just, I'm just impressed that they realize, yeah, I'm just impressed they realized the fifth year option was coming up. I mean, I wasn't aware that anyone in that building was even awake this all season or to know that this. with something like they had to act or not. It might just be that they forgot it was coming up.
Starting point is 00:45:37 And that's why they're declining it. Because you probably have to take the action to exercise it. And so maybe they were just like not doing anything. And it's like, all right, well, the deadline's passing. They just ran out of time. They didn't exercise. Yeah. That's how I view that franchise.
Starting point is 00:45:50 We've seen some of the ones that are just like, you know, like Joe Burrow. It doesn't matter. Nobody, like, it's just a formality. And maybe somebody there was like, oh, forgot about that. We got to do something there. Yeah, did you see this tweet? Yeah, do we need to act on this? Like, yeah, when your friend, like,
Starting point is 00:46:08 asks about something with, like, a driver's license or, like, getting AC service or saying, like, shoot, do is that something we need to be doing in my house as well? They had to Google what a fifth-year option was first before they decided whether or not to pick it up. Interesting there, though, just because I do think that defensive line
Starting point is 00:46:28 is not, like, their most pressing immediate need, but I'm curious if they might end. up putting a little bit of focus there in the draft. Stephen, I think you and I talked about this when we did team needs. It's not a need right right now, but it could be pretty quickly. So it'll be curious to see what they do there. All right. We're going to loop back and do our last draft positions, but first we're going to take
Starting point is 00:46:51 quick break. All right, we're back and we've settled on snake order. So, Stephen, your next draft slot that you're watching, Land on us. I have number eight, Atlanta. but basically that whole area of the draft, which I think in past years has been the most active in terms of trades.
Starting point is 00:47:11 That's where you see teams start to move and try to move up for the guy. And maybe the better pick for me is nine at Chicago because I think that's where the Parris Johnson range, if he doesn't go up, if Kyler Murray doesn't get his way in Arizona, that could be the area where he goes. And I think Chicago needs an offensive tackle.
Starting point is 00:47:28 So I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of phone calls coming to Atlanta at 8, trying to jump them to get their offensive tackle, Because you look at the class, it's not necessarily a class with a lot of guys where you can look at them and be like, that's a franchise tackle. I think Johnson is one of the guys that people see in him. They see that in him. Like, darn out right, the guy from Tennessee, there's questions about him. There's questions about like his foot speed, Skronsky, like he could be a guard at the next level.
Starting point is 00:47:57 So I really think this is like the action area. I think this is where we start to see the draft order get mixed up. and we start to, it starts to become hard keeping up with the order and all the trades and all that. I think this is a spot where that happens. Like seven to me, I think six could be a spot like that, but Las Vegas at seven, it seems like they're locked into like a defensive player, cornerback, probably. So the draft could get boring after that third, fourth pick. And then I think this is when it picks up again.
Starting point is 00:48:23 Someone's, I think a really good prediction is that someone's going to trade up for a tackle, just because it's not a deep, it's not seen as a deep class. so there may be some pressure for teams to go get the high-end guys. An interesting wrinkle there that comes off of the Rogers trade is that two teams that would fit into might really be looking for a tackle in the first round would be the Jets and the Patriots, who before the Jets swapped pick 13 for pick 15, the Jets were drafting one spot ahead of New England. And now that's been flipped. Where, you know, obviously Green Bay is at 13, but I don't think they're quite,
Starting point is 00:49:09 that's not their highest priority need. You figure that if they go with need, it would be a pass catcher. But the Jets, I just wonder if there's like a little bit of a divisional rivalry thing that heats up, like if they're both looking for a tackle and New York thought it would be drafting ahead of New England and is now suddenly behind them.
Starting point is 00:49:28 Like maybe we start to get a little bit, competitive there in the AFC East. So that's a really good one, Stephen. I like that a lot. Sheila, any thoughts on what the Falcons do? Yeah, I mean, I just think the tackle thing is a great point. Like, I think three of the offensive linemen are going to go earlier than maybe anyone. Like, if you told me Skoronsky, Paris Johnson, and Broderick Jones all went in the top 10.
Starting point is 00:49:54 That would not surprise me. Darnell Wright could even go earlier than people anticipate. Because like you mentioned, if you just look at drafts historically and like, Where do you need to draft position X to find like a high caliber player? Like offensive tackle is generally that spot. Not that you can't find one later, but like the best hit rates, if you look at the pro bowlers, the all pro guys are generally in the first round. And so that's one where I agree that teams I think will move up.
Starting point is 00:50:19 I think those guys will go off the board earlier than expected. And I think that will be a big story in the first round. All right. So I think that means I'm next if we're going to sneak order. This feeds a little. bit off of the Texans conversation, because I think there's another AFC division where the divisional rivalries might end up not being a major factor, but are sort of fun to look at. The Colts at number four is really interesting to me because, you know, I think this is largely
Starting point is 00:50:52 considered a four quarterback class. There's sort of like four top guys and people have very different opinions on what order they should go in. but the thing that's sort of fascinating to me is the possibility that this Colts team who's gone through this string of like veteran rentals at the position and now suddenly has a top five pick and in theory it's like, oh, this is where you go get the guy of the future, you're finally going to draft a young quarterback
Starting point is 00:51:22 with top line talent. There's a real possibility here that they end up being the team that's kind of left standing when the music stops, not in the inability to draft a young quarterback. But I'm really curious to see if they end up having to either move up to get the one that they want, which is fine, but probably a little bit disappointing just because you thought that at number four, like, oh, we'll be able to, you know, really get one of our guys. And then the other piece of it is what if they're just not able to get the guy they want?
Starting point is 00:51:59 because you have Houston, and this is a little tinfoil hat, but I do kind of think that three quarters of the AFC South likes Will Levis. There's a lot of Will Levis Pulps buzz. Will Levis is the favorite to get taken by the Texans if they take a quarterback. And then the Titans,
Starting point is 00:52:16 who are a good candidate to try to move up. And again, that number three pick is very much for sale are another team that's been lynched there quite a bit. So if Bryce Young goes one, if Will Levis goes too and, you know, say if some team, maybe it's kind of seeing, maybe it's somebody else, goes, okay, the quarterbacks are going.
Starting point is 00:52:41 We got to call Monty over in Arizona or call Kyler. Figure out what it's going to take to get them to part with Paris Johnson. They move in there. Then it's, you know, Indianapolis winds up with whoever's left unless they are willing to find a way to be the team that either just moves up one spot. But again, if you're Arizona, as long as you get multiple offers,
Starting point is 00:53:05 you'd probably rather take one from a team that's further down. So I just think it's a fascinating draft pick to watch because you look at it and go like, oh, number four, what an awesome, the fourth best draft pick you could possibly have. And then you start to play out the scenarios. And they're not in as good of a spot as it's not as safe of a spot to be, you know,
Starting point is 00:53:31 wanting to go quarterback as it seems like it could be, particularly because I do think that two of the teams that kind of control their fate there are two of the teams
Starting point is 00:53:49 in their division. I don't want to overstate the importance of that, but it's an interesting little wrinkle there. No, I agree. I think, like, what you said about the fourth spot not being as good as it may seem, I think is spot on, especially if you're Chris Ballard, because you've been putting off this decision for so many years. And he hasn't been shy about the fact that one of the reasons he's put it off is if he gets the pick wrong, he's going to get fired. He said that publicly.
Starting point is 00:54:12 He admitted it out loud. And Jim Ursay, this offseason has been saying, I want a quarterback. We're drafting a quarterback. So now you're Ballard and you're like, I haven't wanted to make this pick. And if I make it wrong, like, I'm going to get fired. And now you have the owner telling them, you've got to make the pick. I wouldn't. be surprised if he gets desperate and he does make a trade up, especially with Tennessee lurking around and apparently both of those teams really like
Starting point is 00:54:37 Levis. If you're Houston, I'm opening the bidding and if I'm Arizona, I'm doing it too. I think both of these teams could make a move up and I would not be surprised if Indies the team that does it. Ballard has kind of been conservative when it comes to the quarterback position in the past but he can't afford to do that now.
Starting point is 00:54:53 He's backed himself into this corner and if he reads the tea leaves and starts to get wind of like a trade up for Levis in front of him. I don't think he's going to sit back and let Stroud and just let like a quarterback like Stroud fall to him if he's not like a big fan of him. And if you read his comments on drafting a quarterback,
Starting point is 00:55:11 he said multiple times, I don't want to draft a quarterback, just to draft a quarterback. I want to draft the guy that I want. And if Levis is the guy that he wants, he might have to go get him. It's such a beautiful recipe here. We've got meddling, unpredictable, volatile owner who honestly,
Starting point is 00:55:28 anything that guy does, tweets, whatever, on Thursday night. Would not surprise any of us. That's one. You got GM trying to save his job. One of my favorite factors in decision making in the NFL. The guy has no idea if he's going to be around three months from now. He's like, this owner's nuts. He hired Jeff Saturday.
Starting point is 00:55:49 But it's hard to get a GM job in the NFL. I've been around for a while. What do I do? And then you've got first time head coach, Shane Stike, in there. So I think that the combination of those three things, and like you guys mentioned, it's not like the first or second pick where they can just be like, all right, rank our top two guys and make a decision. There's actually a lot of unpredictability in the top three picks that makes it even harder.
Starting point is 00:56:14 So yes, I am very excited for any range of outcomes for the Colts at number four. Turn your Jim Ursay Twitter notifications on. Get your push notifications. That's the other thing is that like, okay, again, I don't want to overstate how much this matters, but we know the owner is pretty online. And if they have to make a trade up, and I think, like, I do think that if they have, if they feel like they have conviction on one of the guys over who else might be left and trading up is the only way to make that happen, make the trade, get the quarterback that
Starting point is 00:56:49 you feel like is a good quarterback. That said, they will have to overpay for that because they will, if they're competing against another team, which seems like they, seems like they, seems like, like it would be likely, then they are competing against teams who, in theory, should be paying more. If you want to move back out of the top quarterback spots, you'd probably rather move back more than like one or two spots because you're just going to accrue more value that way, at least in theory.
Starting point is 00:57:21 So then the culture in a position where they have to compete with that, which probably means that they have to offer something commensurate with that. which means that all of those tweets being like, this is how it works out on the Jimmy Johnson chart, and here's the number and here's the other number. They're going to look bad. Yeah. And old Mr. Ursay firing up the Twitter machine
Starting point is 00:57:41 to get some takes off, might be seeing some people being like, you suck, you're stupid. Look at these numbers. One of them so much bigger than the other. One time I posted like a screenshot of like a Colts all 22, like it was at their stadium. and they have like windows
Starting point is 00:57:59 so the sun is there and it's like very hard to see the players and I like was complaining about it. Ursay quote tweeted me and was like basically called me an idiot. That's how online this guy is. Listen,
Starting point is 00:58:10 uh, a Ruiz Ursa podcast, I would listen to that. No offense to anyone else on the ringer staff. But yeah, I would listen to that. You think Ursay has like a draft chart?
Starting point is 00:58:20 No. I do not. The better, who have you not been quote tweeted by? I mean, Lamar, Jimers, say it's just like a real who's who's who of NFL
Starting point is 00:58:30 uh movers and shakers all right am I out to finish it out? You're up. All right. I thought this was when Ruiz said he's stealing mine. I thought this is what he was going to say. I'm sorry I talk about this team on every podcast I'm on, but the Lions at six.
Starting point is 00:58:49 Are they going to do it? Are they going to look past the Jared golf era and say we have a talented team? We are maybe the fourth best team in the NFC or might not be picking this high for years to come. Let's go ahead and make a move at quarterback right now, whether that's sticking at six, whether that's making a slight move up to grab a guy they want, whether that's Anthony Richardson, if C.J. Stroud falls,
Starting point is 00:59:13 whoever it might be, to me, this is the time for the Lions to make that move. I've been pounding that drum for months now when Lamar was on the market. They're not doing Lamar. All right. Well, now you have a draft pick. It can be very simple for you. I just look at Goff and I think the recency bias has taken over. I mean, if you just look at it statistically last year,
Starting point is 00:59:35 and this number is not everything, but fifth in EPA per play, if you look at the two previous years, 22nd and 25th, if you look at the last three years combined, 18. Does that not match the eye test? That Jared Goff is somewhere in that middle tier of quarterbacks. If the surroundings around him are good, he can perform at a high level, he's not going to carry you.
Starting point is 00:59:57 He's not going to elevate everyone around him. And so he can be your quarterback in 2023. He's under contract for two more seasons. You don't have to start the rookie right away, but you do have to start thinking, how can we take this team to the next level where we can set ourselves up for sustained success and actually win a Super Bowl in the years to come.
Starting point is 01:00:17 And so to me, I really just like, if I could have one wish in this draft, it would be that like the lions, really the lions with the Seahawks end up being the Anthony Richardson team, but probably the Lions, just because I think that would be such a fun outcome for them, for their fans, for the league, for everything. So I don't know what they're going to do.
Starting point is 01:00:35 If Jalen Carter slips, if Will Anderson slips, all of a sudden, you know, you're saying, we can add a blue chip defensive player. Could you trade back or do you go quarterback? So I can't wait to see what the Lions do at number six. Stephen, you were at one point hopeful that Lamar would be a candidate for the Lions. what do you think about them going quarterback in the draft? I mean, I think they almost have to take one,
Starting point is 01:01:00 especially the direction they're headed in. You're never going to be drafting this spot again, unless you trade for it, like you traded for, this is the Rams pick, obviously. But I think you have to be, you have to look forward when you have this pick because you do have a quarterback, like Schill said, who has not an expiration date,
Starting point is 01:01:19 but there's a limit to where he can bring you. And I think another team, another front office might be inclined to like overlook that and just roll with their guy, the guy that they're having success with. But this is like a Rams influence front office. They were there in 2020 when things were going bad. When the decision was basically made, we needed change. Like John Wolford came in in 2020 and started a playoff game over Jared Kauf.
Starting point is 01:01:43 So I think they kind of know how this movie ends. And I think they realized that they're going to lose Ben Johnson, keeping an offensive line together. that's the focal point of the offense right now. It's tough. It's five guys. And if you lose one or two, the whole thing kind of collapses. So I think they know that what they have now, like why it's working now, the formula now on offense might not be the formula in even two years. And they're going to need one of these stud quarterbacks. And I like whether it's Stroud, Richardson, Levist, whichever one falls to them, I almost think that they have to take a quarterback because, I mean, we've seen what premium you have to pay down the line to acquire a veteran.
Starting point is 01:02:23 and we've seen what premium you have to pay to trade up in the draft to draft the quarterback of the future. They kind of have a gift right now and I don't think they can afford to pass it up. I have the same sort of philosophy on it. I'm a little skeptical that they will. Sheal, how likely do you think this is?
Starting point is 01:02:40 Yeah, I kind of feel like they're not going to. I've been talking about it for it feels like three months now, but I feel like they might just look at best available player and be like, we were really good at the end of last season. And we know Jared Gough might not be the quarterback in 2025, but he can be the quarterback in 2023. And if we need to figure it out next year, we can, but we're going to take the best available players.
Starting point is 01:03:03 So if you're asking me, do I think they're going to? Actually, my gut says no, they're not going to, but I also really want them to and think they should. You don't see it mocked a lot of places. No, you don't. And I really, I just think it would be a mistake. I think just go back and watch the Panthers game late in the season. Like it was a must-win game against the Carolina.
Starting point is 01:03:23 of Panthers, and you got blown out because you couldn't get your play action pass game going. Like, that's a red flag. And we saw Jared Goff's last thing. Like, we know what makes Jared Goff good and when he's not good. And I think it's really naive to think that you're going to be able to keep this core of the offense around him for multiple years. Yeah, I mean, we do always hear about how the Rams connections in that front office are like such a good thing for golf. Like, oh, they love Jared Goff. They drafted with Jared golf. They love Jared Goff. They also still like, you should know how this ends. It's the part that I was like, yeah, but then what happened, guys? It wasn't so great.
Starting point is 01:04:05 I think also just the state of the NFC should make them be even more aggressive, right? Because first of all, it is certainly not a bad thing to have two serviceable quarterbacks, right? If you think you're a Super Bowl contender, that is a really, really, really, really good position, like a backup quarterback who you're confident can win games for you is a really meaningful player to have on your roster. And then you start thinking about, I mean, like, there were, you know, when the Rogers thing went down, there are all those lists going around about all the quarterbacks in the AFC, Rogers, Allen, Burrow, Herbert, Lamar, Trevor Lawrence, Mahomes, Watson, Russell Wilson, to a, a,
Starting point is 01:04:53 assuming Lamar sticks around three of those quarterbacks, I think, have to end up missing the playoffs. The NFC is the opposite. And I hope it makes teams like the Lions and the Seahawks. But particularly the Lions just because I think Jared Goff is ultimately more limited than Gino. It should make them want to be really, really, really aggressive because they're Super Bowl contenders with a good
Starting point is 01:05:23 quarterback. Like, they might be Super Bowl contenders with Jared Goss because of the state of the conference. It's just really not that high in the bar. So I think we're all in agreement here. I would love to see them go for it. I'm just not totally sure they will. All right. Anything else, guys? I think we've about covered it. I'm excited. This is an exciting draft. We don't know what's going to happen. It's a lot of mystery. It is fun. Yeah, there's on we just went through like as we were doing this exercise, I picked like almost On my list here, I'm like, almost every team in the top 10 is like a fun spot in the first round. So I think there is unpredictability with the quarterbacks we don't know, with some of the scenarios we mocked out.
Starting point is 01:06:06 Let's just get it here. Let's just say, let's fast forward to Thursday night and find out what these teams are going to do. But yes, I think it's more fun. I don't think we say this every year. I think this is a particularly specific fun top of the draft for sure. There's their quarterbacks and there's some mystery. And I think that's really all you can ask for in a first round. So I'm excited.
Starting point is 01:06:29 All right. This has been the Ringer NFL show. I'm Nora Pinciotti. Thank you so much to Sheila Kvati and Stephen Ruiz. Thank you to producer Stefan Anderson for his help in this episode. And to Connor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgapal for additional production supervision. We will be back after round one on Thursday. Also be sure to check out all of the coverage.
Starting point is 01:06:51 on the Ringer NFL draft feed and on the ringer.com, Danny Kelly's draft guide, just an awesome, awesome, awesome resource as we get ready for the draft. Thanks so much.

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