The Ringer NFL Show - The Play Sheet [VIDEO] Debunked: Brock Purdy for MVP

Episode Date: December 13, 2023

While Brock Purdy's statistically incredible 2023 season helps to make a MVP case for the 49ers quarterback, The Ringer’s Ben Solak argues that we may need to pump the brakes. While Purdy's play has been undeniably solid, he benefits from a supporting cast and scheme that almost no other QB has available to them. Will Purdy secure the MVP, or will it go to someone else? Watch 'The Play Sheet' on YouTube or Spotify every Wednesday at 8 a.m. PT. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Howdy? I'm Ben Solac and this is the play sheet. It's a video podcast. Comes out every Wednesday. Today we're talking Brock Purdy MVP discourse. So click in your Spotify app, watch the film and enjoy. The opening script. Let's talk about Brock Purdy and the MVP. The MVP race has been like wild this year. You had the pole position leaders in the clubhouse to start the year. You're Patrick Mahomes, your Josh Allen, your Jalen Hertz. All of those guys are pretty much falling away. And now it's a two horse race between a slight favorite and Dak Prescott plus 155, about him last week. And Brock Purdy, plus 175. Now, the case for Brock Purdy to win the award is just unbelievable astronomical production. Purdy is averaging 9.9 yards per attempt,

which if you think about that, means that if Purdy drops back and then throws it, it doesn't matter if the ball's caught or not, the offense just gained 10 yards. That 9.9 yards per attempt is tied with 2,000 Kurt Warner for the best season of any quarterback since the merger. Of course, yards per attempt is an imperfect stat, right? In this top 10, we see Ryan Fitzpatrick and Nick Foles and Jake Browning. And obviously, those aren't names that we associate with clear MVP's. Now, by adjusted net yards per attempt, which is a better yards per attempt because it rewards touchdowns and penalizes interceptions and sacks, Purdy is still third all time.

Now, this list passes the MVP sniff test. Purdy joins 2004 Manning, 2011 Rogers, 2013 Nick Foles, more on him in a second, and 2016 Matt Ryan. as one of only five quarterbacks to have an adjusted net yards per attempt over nine. Rounding out the top ten, we have 1984 Dan Marino, which is nuts. 2020-2020-Rodgers, 2018 Mahomes, 2007 Brady, 2013 Manning, all of these guys. We're MVP's. Here's the last one on the crazy stats tray, and this one to me is the biggest doozy of them all.

For all quarterbacking seasons since 2000, Brock Purdy right now is second, an explosive play rate at 14.5%. He is only behind 2013 Mike Vick. This is the first year of Chip Kelly. And he's just ahead of 2013 Nick Foles, which is also the first year of Chip Kelly. So how can a player with this ridiculous of a statistical profile, not be the consensus for MVP, let alone the current favorite for MVP?

Well, it's because, and this is critical, MVP is not a quarterback with the best stats award. It at times feels like a quarterback with the best stats award, because very often the player who wins it is a quarterback with really, really good stats. But that's a confounding variable. It's a red herring. It's not that the MVP award was given to 2020 Rogers or 2018 Mahomes because they had incredible stats. Rather, it's that 2020 Rogers and 2018 Mahomes played unbelievable football. They were so, so good at quarterbacking. The result of their greatness was both incredible stats and the MVP award. And in the

case of Brock Purdy, the incredible stats, as amazing as they are, don't feel nearly as much the result of his individual greatness. And accordingly, he doesn't feel the same way those previous MVP felt. Now, none of this is to take away from Brock. Brock is objectively playing good football. He is playing well. We can see this on play action. This is the enormous Debo Samuel touchdown on 3rd and 11. Seahawks against the Niners this week. Debo's on this huge clear-out route. Like, it's not really meant to be targeted. Debo was on the K Adams show this week, and he was like, I'm like late in the read, dude. Like, I'm not supposed to be, you're not supposed to be throwing me this.

Brock talked about after the game. He basically said, hey, we saw Jamal Adams. I mean, I saw him hanging low in the drop. And I said, okay, if you're just going to sit low, you're going to squat, like, if you're going to come low in the box, I'm just going to throw this on top of you. So this is good processing by Brock Berry. This is saying, hey, design-wise, this is more meant to open up brand than I you who's running this post behind it, right? If you get single high coverage here, you get like a full rotation and quandary.

a single high. You think Debo might pull him to the outside and then you throw Iyuk here. So design-wise, there's more so meant to open I-Euk. You're going to motion Christian McCaffrey and he's going to have an option route. You can throw that. You have here on the other side, Juan Jennings, third and 11, he runs 11 yards and turns around. Like you're kind of running Debo in this clear out to pull Adams down field so that you can then throw this on third and 11 and pick up that first down. So there's a lot going on here. And a lot of it is conditional on this Debo stretch and kind of what it does to these safeties. And Brock reads it out, post snaps. This is good processing for Brock. This is a good play. But altogether, like,

not really the design. And that's what makes it impressive. When we snap this, Seattle looks like they could be in three buzz, right, where you're going to bring him down. Then it's going to be cover three, cover three, cover three like this. And if that's the case, then Debo's going to climb just into a deep middle safety into a sinking corner. But that's, it looks like that, but no one behaves that way, right? I mean, this, this, this corner stays connected. He stays manned up right here. Cawandre is worried about this vertical right here. Both of these players expect Jamal Adams to take this, this, this vertical and carry it down the field. But Jamal, like, feels like he's guessing it's going to be a dig, right?

He's expecting this. And obviously, they run this dig a lot. So Jamal's just staying low, stay in low, staying low, and not at all respecting the threat of Debo Samuel on a vertical route. Look at how you got to open your hips and get ready to go. Like, this is, again, it's good processing from Purdy. But fundamentally, this play works because of a bad decision by Jamal Adams. He's wrong on his rules. He needs to be carrying Perti carrying Depot vertical right now.

And so Perti hangs it out there for him. Beautiful throw. Catch a run. So an example of a good Purdy play, but this is a coverage bus from the Seahawks. So that's one 40 plus yard touchdown throw for Brock Purdy. Here's the other one. We're going to send Kyle Eustach in motion. We're going to snap it with him in motion.

And he's going to work to this edge. We're going to pull this guard. Double team right here. And then George Kittle is going to let go of that edge defender, work to the second level. and block the linebacker here, that's Jordan Brooks. Julian Love is the safety. He has to come down and respect the pole here and the pole here because he's a run fitter, right? He is in the box.

He's a run fitter. You're adding an additional body to this side with the motion. He's got to step down into the box. And so, okay, here comes our motion. Here comes Julian Love. We're now worried about a kickout block here, a free climber into this second level. And Christian McCaffrey just following that, getting a block from George Kittle. And now it's an explosive run, right?

This is play action. This is how it works for Kyle Shanahan. What does it end up being? Play action fake. Julian Love's got George Kettle. Kittles straight ole's him, right? Kittles put in the hand up, even as he's getting hell, this ends up being a flag, right? We see the flag get thrown for defensive holding.

But right here we've got him, right? He is too low. Jordan Brooks didn't take the cheese, but Brooks is going to open to this two-receiver's side. He's not going to open to George Kittle. Corner took the cheese. There's just nobody there to protect Julian Love to help him. So, Bertie just drops that ball. Nice throw. Beautiful in the bucket. There was pressure in his lap. And then let George Kill will bring a couple

tackles for you. And that's a 44-yard touchdown. As easy as that. Now, both of these throws were 20-plus-yard gains games. Remember, Purdy's got like the highest explosive play rate since Vick. It's incredible. And they were downfield throws, right? They were throws with deep air yards and Purdy's making accurate throws down the field. This is, this has always been from day one, okay? The thing that separates Purdy from Jimmy Gropolo, the thing that makes Purdy better than Jim Jimmy Grappalo better for this offense than Jimmy. The thing that Purdy does that helps maximize Debo Samuel and Brayne and Iuk and George Kittle in ways that previously they have been maximized.

And I say since day one, because like two games into his career on the play sheet, we talked about this. I have been here with the Purdy stands on Purdy is aggressive. Pretty throws down the field and it's a huge part of his game being good. I am with you. So the fact that Purdy is accurate and he'll push the ball down the field and he has pocket management and quickness, it doesn't change the fact. It's great.

It makes him a good quarter. But it doesn't change the fact that he has schematic advantages and personnel advantages that no other quarterback in the league, save for Tua, maybe has. And the two of them are head and shoulders about the rest of the league. So, Purdy, yeah, his season right now is second in the history of quarterback seasons, an explosive pass play rate. But on explosive pass plays, Purdy's air yards per attempt, like how far he has to throw the ball down the field to get an explosive pass is 683rd out of 700. 178 seasons. He's hacking. You want to watch some more

Purdy explosive passes? We can watch some more Purdy explosive passes. I love this play. Excellent play because Shanahan is great on it. Purdy is great on it. And then Debo is great on it.

Formation-wise, we go two tight ends. We're closed into the boundary, right? And then we go, Brandon Ayyuk, stacked with Christian McCaffrey, a running back lined up as a wide receiver with Debo Samuel, a wide receiver lined up as a running back. This is nonsense.

It's foolishness and I hate it. It's evil. You get a clear zone tell, right? So the corner stays here over two tight ends and then you send Christian McCaffrey in motion. Oh, he's in the backfield now. And Julian Love rotates down. Oh, it looks this, I mean like this rotation immediately looks to me like we're running cover three. Right. Like that's, that's going to be our move. If you're going to have

two tight ends and two players in the backfield, we're going to go cover three. So that we have numbers in the box. Makes sense, right? But oh, look at that. Grishman McAfri's out of the box now. We stand out of the football. Like this is just evil nonsense. Kyle Shanahan is a wizard and he shouldn't be allowed in the league. Concept. George Kittle is running this, like short post right here. And then Brandon Iuk is going to run this dig. And initially you want to throw one of those two kind of in the intermediate window. You're going to get pivot route out here, Chris McAfree's flat control. Debo Samuel goes sits down on the curl. Debo's supposed to pull this linebacker down so that way you can throw Brandon Ayuk. What happens? Well, Bobby Wagner doesn't pull too far to Debo, right?

And we have this Jordan Brooks here, this drop in linebacker with eyes and hips into that window. So if you want to throw this, you're clogged up and this player can play on it. And it. So I don't like this anymore. Purdy's eyes are on Kittle, right? Purdy says, okay, if you Jordan Brooks are going to open to the three receiver side, I'm going to throw this post in behind you, right? But the coverage here is actually really tight, right? This is good, tight coverage on Kittle. There's no window there. So Purdy's off it, right? He just resets in the pocket, one hitch. Just dump this off to Debo Samuel. Beautiful. Now, the line of scrimmage you can see right there was the 25-yard line. So this is a two air yards throw, Debo's got it at the 27. Pause the video

and guess how many yards Debo Samuel gets on this play. 30. Nobody gets to do this, dude. No, this is so dumb. Nobody gets to throw this and then get the ball to here. It's not even on the screen. This to there. And that's because they have a running back who plays wide receiver. And so they can just move around on the backfield.

Oh, your linebacker, your width and your zones wasn't correct. Two-yard checkdown, 30-yard game. This is hacking. It's illegal. You ready for another one? for another incredible Purdy, explosive play, creating it. Look at that throw. It's unreal.

Accuracy. It's a 25-yard game, dude. They're breaking the numbers! That sort of play, a 25-yard jet touch to Debo Samuel, is why my coworker Stephen Ruiz points out that if you just took Purdy's, throws behind the line of scrimmage, he would still lead the league in yards per attempt. He would still lead the league.

the league, unexpected points out of per dropback. This world that Purdy gets to live in where you can just tap the ball behind the line of scrimmage and dominate, like no other quarterback dominates, it almost precludes him from winning MVP because it so clearly defines that his scheme and his personnel help him in a way that is radically different, heads and shoulders above the rest of the league. So it, like, it sucks that this has become a conversation. Purdy's just a good quarterback playing in an excellent system, and we should be able to give him his laurels

without putting him in the MVP conversation just because of his stats. But Purdy is not as responsible for his stats as other quarterbacks are. He is not as responsible for the success of his offense as other quarterbacks are. That's, in my opinion, inarguable, when you watch his film against MVP candidates like Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson, who just do a ton more for their team. So it stinks.

I don't want to be like the Purdy is bad and shouldn't win MVP guys. I'm not. I'm the Purdy is good, and he also shouldn't win an MVP guy. And that'll do it for us here on the play sheet. Thank you so much for watching. Thank you to Cory McConnell for producing the episode. Thank you to Brock Purdy for being good. Thank you to the MVP discourse for ruining my enjoyment of watching the good quarterback. Watch more videos and then subscribe and then comment and then watch even more.